Stomaching the Santana trade situation
Posted on November 27th, 2007 – 10:39 AMBy Joe Christensen
I’m not a GM. I don’t even play one in the newspaper. So it was a leap for me to break down the potential returns the Twins could get in a Johan Santana deal. These were educated guesses based on the conversations I’ve been having with people from around the game.
With that chart and today’s main story, I wanted to convey a prevailing theme I keep hearing from baseball insiders, that the returns on a Santana trade won’t be as impressive as people might think. As one exec put it to me, “This isn’t as simple as saying you’re trading Johan Santana, the best pitcher on the planet.” Based on the e-mails I’ve been getting, people are having a tough time grasping that.
On his blog today, Buster Olney compares the price of trading for Santana with the price of trading for Oakland’s Dan Haren:
You could back up your organization’s truck and offer two Grade A prospects and a couple of Grade B prospects and call the Minnesota Twins about Johan Santana. And if you arrange a conditional deal with the Twins, you could then have the opportunity to try to convince Santana to waive his no-trade clause. That would cost you merely the largest salary for any pitcher in the history of baseball: six years, $150 million, on top of the $13.25 million he is owed for next season.
Or you could back up the organization’s truck and offer three or four prospects for Oakland’s Dan Haren. No strings attached, no no-trade clause. And here’s the really good news: You would have to pay Haren just $4 million for 2008, $5.5 million for 2009, and he has a $6.75 million option for 2010.
So not only would you have a great pitcher on the cheap for three years, you’d have cost certainty, the flexibility of not being locked into a long-term deal — and you could spend cash that you would’ve had to spend on Santana to fill other needs.
Buster notes that another trade option for teams is Baltimore’s Erik Bedard, who won’t become a free agent until after 2009. So yes, the Twins have an amazing trade chip in Santana, but that doesn’t mean teams are going to treat him as the be-all and end-all.
I have been getting skewered over e-mail for the comment that Miguel Cabrera will bring a bigger return than Santana on the trade front. Cabrera’s weight gain has been well-documented. The Yankees, Red Sox and Mets are set at third base, so they’re not even in the hunt.
But think about the teams who could be in the running for both Santana and Cabrera — the Dodgers and the Angels. I guarantee both would give up more talent for Cabrera than Santana. And again, a big part of that is because Cabrera won’t be a free agent until after 2009.
The reaction I’m getting over e-mail proves a big point I’m trying to make. Readers expect the Twins to get a major haul if they trade Santana. If the team settles for anything less, this could be a PR nightmare, especially after losing Torii Hunter to free agency. Stay tuned, and please, stop killing the messenger. One of my best friends has two young boys who aren’t speaking to me now after all this bad news on Hunter and Santana.
215 Responses to "Stomaching the Santana trade situation"
Trading him is going to suck.
I understand not paying a pitcher for 6 years (those deals NEVER work)…but it sure would be nice to keep him around
Thanks for keeping us grounded, Joe. Even at the expense of reader affection. It’s going to be a dark day in Snowta when the Twins get Cabrera and Kennedy in two weeks.
Twins should make it clear to Yankees and other pursuers that if they don’t get enough in return in a trade, they we will try REALLY hard to sign Santana to a long-term deal even if it will be expensive to us. Having him walk away as a free-agent is NOT happening.
The message should be: Get Santana now or never! In that way I think Twins will get the maximum value in return.
Joe, Why does all your trade suggestions include at least one pitcher for Santana? Shouldn’t we try to get two position players instead, with gaping holes at DH, 3rd and CF? There are plenty of young arms already in the Twins organization…
Well, maybe it is true Cabrera will get more, but isn’t the popular rumor for Cabrera the following, Willits, Hendrick, Mathis, and then either E Santana or Adenhart?
I think that would be a haul for Santana.
And this Haren comparison reminds me of the same argument I heard about how Rowand would be the most sought after CF this free agency. Maybe, because he is cheaper, not because he is the best. That didn’t stop Torii from getting $90 million from someone and I don’t believe Haren possibly being available will stop someone from giving up a lot of talent for Santana.
I don’t think it will stop anybody from offering talent, but I do think the availability of those guys could be used as a bargaining chip. And I don’t think we could use the line “give us talent or else we resign him” as a bargaining chip because no one would take us seriously. People would call our bluff because they know we can’t resign him. Then we’d be stuck up a creek.
JC,
That last part about those kids reminds me of how sad I was last year on Mauer bat day when I had one bat to give to two kids. I expected a big argument but one kid didn’t want it because his favorite player was Hunter and why would he want a Mauer bat.
And all i could think in my head is well, enjoy his last year here.
Thanks, Joe, for your great reporting and constant updates.
The Minnesota Twins are my favorite team, and Johan Santana is my favorite baseball player. I understand the Twins’ needs and the strategy behind a trade like this, but it doesn’t make a difference to me: I don’t want to see Johan go. It goes above and beyond trading the best pitcher on the planet as he enters his prime.
If Torii Hunter is worth $18 million a year, isn’t Johan Santana worth just a little bit more? He sure is to me, with the guidance he provides to the pitching staff, his professionalism, and of course, his brilliant pitching.
The position in which the Twins find themselves does not seem homologous to the Frank Viola or Chuck Knoblauch situations, in the stars’ abilities or in the possible returns. It is especially frustrating for all of us after seeing the team so dangerously close in 2006 top winning it all.
Terry Ryan sure left Bill Smith with a bare cupboard and in a tough spot. I hope that Smith’s negotiating skills are as brilliant as touted, and he can sign Johan and still make some other smart trades.
Why would the Twins accept a trade of Kennedy and Cabrera from the Yankees. How does that make us better ever. We are better off letting him walk, collecting the two draft picks and taking our chances that we will be good next year. I know we need hitters, but we have a lot of young pitchers to trade that should be able to get some. After what I keep hearing about the Santana trade talks is why would teams want to pay him when they already have someone young that gives you 2/3 of the performance at 1/20 the cost. Well we have a lot of those young guys. Enough to spare some for some hitting help. So why not just trade a guy like Garza or Slowey and get some hitting. After all they are young and cheap and pitchers and good (highly thought of) last time I checked.
I just don’t see the Twins extending Santana; that would cost money. Again, without Hunter, Silva, and Santana, the payroll for ‘08 (even factoring in decent raises for Morneau and Cuddyer) looks to be in the $45 million neighborhood. Perhaps the Twins could afford to take on a relatively moderate contract in a potential Santana deal and thereby ease the financial pain of the acquiring club while and making them more willing to part with the blue chippers the Twins covet.
If all we can get is Cabrera and Kennedy, then the solution is simple: Don’t trade him. Add 2 incentive-laden years to the offer we already gave him, and make the fans happy. Do not under any circumstances trade him for crap. This is not a fire sale. Santana > Zito.
In addition to my last post, I also think that reporters and unnamed executives are severely underestimating that quality of players that the Twins will receive for Santana. I realize that we may not get 2 major league ready players, plus 2 blue chip prospects, but we will get some team to offer their best, young, major league-ready prospects (Hughes and Cabrera, Elsbury & Lester, Kershaw & Kemp). That won’t plug every hole, but it will give us good talent. We don’t even need a guy like Ian Kennedy. We have enough guys like that. We need a guy with the potential to be great in exchange for the best pitcher in baseball. You’ve got to give up something to get something, ya know.
Besides only one team gets to sign Santana as a free agent, not all the teams. So that’s incentive to get him now, because you know you got him.
Well if your going to lose by not getting talent vs losing based on the risk of a high dollar long term contract, then the Twins need to bite the bullet and sign him to the contract. They can always look to trade him down the road.
Just sign Santana! As a Twins fan I want to see him pitching in Minnesota for a long time to come.
I’d like to see Santana stay, too, but how does the club round out the roster (24 players) for $60 million or less and still contend for a title? If the club would commit to a higher payroll (which they won’t), then fine, sign him. It’s the best baseball move the club could make. But they won’t do that, so signing him doesn’t make sense at this point.
Based on Joe C. scenarios, I still say the Muts have the most to offer. Milledge is a punk, but Gomez and Mulvey are their #3 and #4 top prospects
[…] Check it out! While looking through the blogosphere we stumbled on an interesting post today.Here’s a quick excerptStomaching the Santana trade situation Tuesday, November 27th, 2007 I’m not a GM. I don’t even play one in the newspaper. So it was a leap for me to break down the potential returns the Twins could get in a Johan Santana deal. These were educated guesses based on the conversations I’ve been having with people from around the game. With that chart and today’s main story, I wanted to convey a prevailing theme I keep hearing from baseball insiders, that the returns on a Santana trade won’t be a […]
On Joe’s article: in an era where a strong opinion is all some articles have to offer, this piece was quite impression.
If the club would commit to a higher payroll (which they won’t)
The 07 payroll was what..$70-75mil? Can you realistically expect them to jump up to $90 or $100 in one offseason? Even with the new stadium that’s a HUGE jump in one year.
And even if you say “Well how about just $80-85mil?”….do you think that extra 10mil per year is going to help patch holes in four positions?
It is precisely that…a choice not to pay and not to keep the top talent. The money is there but is the commitment? I know many on here disagree with that and I have read all of the reasons why but have not been convinced that getting rid of the top players will some how make the Twins a better team. I have absolutely no confidence that the Twins will invest the money they save in anything other than low-rent and cheap players. And getting prospects is a risky proposition. The bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. Besides, if these prospects turn out to be good and want money then they will just get traded anyway. By all means do not go crazy and spend money unwisely and just for the sake of spending. But I truly believe that signing Santana and investing some money this way will make a huge difference in a number of areas including fan support and player contentment. Just one hardcore fans opinion.
Well said Dana. We have the core of a very good team. Just spend some money and fill some holes and we will win. That pays for itself.
It is precisely that…a choice not to pay and not to keep the top talent.
This is honest curiosity, when is the last time that a team increased it’s payroll by roughly 40% over one offseason?
Why did they do it, and how did it turn out for them?
You people are asking for unreal changes by any standard. This team needs a LOT more help than can be made in one offseason, even if they increased the payroll 30mil in the offseason.
Sign Santana
Trade Garza for Delmon Young
Trade Nathan for Atkins/Stewart
Sign Tony Clark to DH for 2 years.
Hunter, Silva, and nathan money should be enough to sign Santana and give out some raises (Morneau).
Twins should trade for Miguel Cabrera. Wouldn’t that be something. We have prospects.
Talks appear to be intensifying between the Red Sox and Twins about a deal involving Coco Crisp. — Boston Globe what do you guys think about this think crisp could be are new cf by end of winter meatings and i highly doubt that
Johan Santana would be traded to the redsox for crisp crisp being that deal noway johan could be dealt to the redsox but not for crisp
Just spend some money and fill some holes and we will win.
That’s where the Twins are at right now. They focused too much money in one area and left other holes to just be “filled in”
That’s how we had Punto at 3rd, Rodriquez and Cirillo off the bench, and White in LF/DHing.
They need to trade Santana so that they can spread the money between the ENTIRE team for now while they’re working on increasing their payroll. Otherwise that extra $20mil that you all so deserpately want is going to get dumped into one or two guys and the rest of the roster will be filled out with scrubs.
T, I have neither the time nor inclination to argue with you. I have read all of your reasoning ad nauseum. I just disagree and believe that you have unreasonably low expectations of the Twins and of the concept of investing (which means spending now in hopes of gaining future benefits). You will never convince me that it isn’t a choice so please do not bother.
More and more, I am thinking the Twins need to do everything possible to sign Santana, even if it’s an additional six years at $120-$125 million. If the Twins cannot get an established quality ML position player and two top prospects for a rare commodity — an ace pitcher who is arguably the best in baseball — I do not want the Twins to trade him.
When you see what is currently being paid to starting pitchers who are not nearly in same the class as Santana, I suspect that $20 million per season, five seasons from now, might be a bargain for a pitcher like Santana, even if his skills have diminished.
Signing Santana is definitely a gamble, as he could end up either being like Greg Maddux in his prime or Kevin Brown after he signed with the Dodgers. Given his history, I think the odds are in favor of Maddux in his prime.
Crisp and Monroe would serve well as placeholders on a rebuilding team.
I think Crisp is overrated and not worth the time.
agreed, Crisp and Monroe wouldn’t serve well anywhere
Oh.. such a masochistic team in such a masochistic game.
Before this winter is over it will claim the 2 last and (of course) most talented players responsible for the slow rise from the dark 90s. There will be no surprise heroic replacements, nor Viola-like ransoms of boundless potential. Just a pair of draft picks and a couple of spare parts with equal promise.
I’m sure I’ll still keep going to the games… at first just to watch and see if Morneau, Liriano, Garza, or maybe even Mauer become something too big to keep. But then, even before the last out of the first game, I’m sure I’ll have convinced myself that - maybe, just maybe, they’ll be good enough to win it all again. And when they don’t, I’m sure I’ll find enough hope to waste the cold winter months dreaming wistfully about the future - just like I do now.
But please don’t whine like pitiful Cubs fans my hearty Minnesotans.
After all:
They can Take Torri Hunter
and our Favorite Pitcher
but Remember, remember
the magic of Ought Six
and the first of October.
dana, if you’re going to voice your opinion be ready to defend it. Otherwise don’t just dismiss it when I voice my own.
I am asking an honest question of people who have issue with the Twins spending habits.
What do you think is an acceptable payroll for ‘08? What would you like to see it at by the time the new stadium opens?
Everybody says it needs to be “more” or “bigger”…but I haven’t seen anybody actually put down a number.
I just think there are those that have an unrealsitic idea of what it honestly would take to fix this team in the timeframe they want them to be competitive (namely 2008).
Frankly, I would like it to be roughly $90-95 by 2010. That’s about 10 mil a year in the next two years. It’s not a TON of money, but it’s a substantial increase considering they’ll be dealing with a number of younger players. $10mil a year goes a lot further when you’re spreading it between a group of developing rookies vs. a Santana or Hunter type agent.
EXCUSE THE PUNCTUATION ERRORS BECAUSE I write this post from playa del carmen mexico on a hispanic keyboard…yes i am that kind of twins fan….which is exactly the kind of fan that is often a bit over reactive,short sighted and myopic in the evaluation of talent & most important REALITY. Joe nailed this thing and we have to remember something guys fail to mention, trade evaluation takes time. I believe Johan will be dealt and I also believe the David Wright, Reyes,Cano etc trades will not happen. This needs to be a 4 player deal with possibly 2 guys who are a year or two away. Do I think the Twins should have been more proactive? absolutely, I mean come on we licked our wounds over the stab at locking up Joe Mays 5 years too long. Right idea wrong player. So I think the Twins have learned a lesson. They will follow the Santana trade with long term signing of the next nucleus of the twins. They missed one window and don´t intend to let that happen again. The nice thing is since we stock pile pitching there are moves to be made and no year has to be completely thrown away as a rebuilding year. That´s not bad. But with the two former cornerstones gone even I am going to drink 10 beers and play Cher´s “If I could turn back time” 100 times in a row to lament what could have been if we locked these guys up when then begged for offers from the front office. But what´s done is done. As a Twins fan the winter is historically for greiving the loss & the spring my friends…is for new beginnings!
I should add that I would expect it to increase by quite a bit more after 2010, at which point they’ll have a year of new stadium revenues as well as other incomes to use when determining what they can spend on the FA market (and on they’re own guys, who won’t be “developing rookies”)
I think for the Twins to get get 1 of the 3 pitchers from the Yankees they would be looking at a trade along these lines: Caberea,Betemit or Duncan and Kenedy. If you ask for Cano I think you
can forget about 1 of the top pitchers I think you could get Cano,Betemit or Duncan and 2 lower pitchers. I do not think the Twins should be asking for pitchers in any Santana trade because of the lack of hitting in our system.
I also think the Twins should talk to the Brewers about trading Nathan for Cory Hart ave 295-24HR-81rbi-353obp-539slg, he played 34 games in cf and 113 in rf.
JoeC, Olney and your other contacts may be right… maybe Santana won’t bring the return the Twins and their fans would expect or want. If not, that’s fine, they should keep talking to his agent and plan to keep him for 2008 regardless of whether a deal is worked out. There’s absolutely no reason to trade him for mediocre value.
As for potential trade partners thinking it would be better to use their trade chits for Haren or Bedard, that’s fine, too… so long as they realize that at the end of that scenario, they’ve got Haren or Bedard… and not Santana.
I’m sorry, but until I’m proven wrong, I’ll continue to believe that there’s more than one team out there who will be willing to provide fair market value in return for Johan Santana, conditioned on 72 hours to sign him to an extension.
David,
Good call on the Cory Hart trade, they need a closer now that Cordero’s gone. I still wish we could get a 3rd baseman for Nathan.
I would also try to get Tabata from the Spanks.
[…] Check it out! While looking through the blogosphere we stumbled on an interesting post today.Here’s a quick excerptStomaching the Santana trade situation Tuesday, November 27th, 2007 I’m not a GM. I don’t even play one in the newspaper. So it was a leap for me to break down the potential returns the Twins could get in a Johan Santana deal. These were educated guesses based on the conversations I’ve been having with people from around the game. With that chart and today’s main story, I wanted to convey a prevailing theme I keep hearing from baseball insiders, that the returns on a Santana trade won’t be a […]
“I just disagree and believe that you have unreasonably low expectations of the Twins and of the concept of investing”
I’m not trying to convince you of anything Dana and I don’t want to argue, I just want to say that I don’t think it’s possible to have too low an expectation for the Twins and their front office. They don’t spend money. They don’t invest. It would be awesome, the perfect scenario, if we signed Johan to an extension and then traded some pitching prospects to fill our other holes. Apparently we’re looking at Crisp. I have to assume we’ll give up a low level prospect for him. Then if we sent Garza to the Rockies for Atkins. Maybe a couple of pitching prospects to the Mariners for Wlademir Balentin who is pretty close to major league ready and who could DH for us. I would love if that’s the route we took. I don’t think trading Santana is the ONLY way the Twins can improve. I just think it’s the only realistic way we can improve. And keeping him through the 08 season and letting him walk or even trying to trade him at the deadline is not a method for improvement.
Pohlad, get your wallet out and pay for Santana to stay longer. The PR is for the Twins is going way down when we see that we don’t keep any superstars so whats the point of following. I love the twins will always, but it’s not fair to always lose good players.
If your going to own a team, make some contributions and give some back to the Twins.
Am I missing something? Why do so many posters assume Santana wants to stay with the Twins without at least testing the FA market? It may not be as simple as just “Sign him for whatever it takes.” Maybe he wants to play for a team with a better chance to win the WS and a better chance to get him to the HOF.
Could it possibly be that the Twins are not the only team that doesn’t want to get locked into a long-term, $100 mil plus deal for a guy who will be 36 when the deal runs out? He throws 91, down from 94, uses his slider less than ever, and relies on a pitch that, when he can’t locate it, makes the fastball easy to sit on. He’s really, really good. But as nasty goes, I like a healthy Francisco more than I like Johan. Someone is going to overpay for him, and he won’t be worth nearly what he gets paid by the last two years of his contract. No chance.
Joe -
I think you are right on the money. There are going to be some very disappointed fans. The fact is the Twins don’t “have” Santana, they have one year of Santana. Santana has complete control after that and the Twins aren’t going to get anything in return for what Santana controls.
I think the Twins are better off rolling the dice and trying to win this year. They can trade Santana at the deadline if they aren’t in the pennant race. And they can settle for a couple draft picks if they can’t make a deal for more than that.
The details matter a lot here.
Unlike Tori, Santana did make a counter offer. The Twins might be $40 mill & 2 years apart, but Latin cultures like to negotiate.
If there are 3 very high quality players/prospects involved in a trade, that would probably be better than any negotiated contract for the Twins future. But if its only 2 hith quality players/prospects, I would urge Smith to make another counter-offer.
This isn’t the Mall of America. Like in the film “Life of Brian,” If you want to keep Santana, you will have to haggle.
dan says:
November 27th, 2007 at 12:30 pm
Talks appear to be intensifying between the Red Sox and Twins about a deal involving Coco Crisp. — Boston Globe what do you guys think about this think crisp could be are new cf by end of winter meatings and i highly doubt that
Johan Santana would be traded to the redsox for crisp crisp being that deal noway johan could be dealt to the redsox but not for crisp
Dan, would you like to expand on this thought? or even make it possible for anyone to understand this? you have got to be kidding me..
I hope Billy Smith does something. We have what everyone wants (Young, cheap, pitching and the best pitcher in baseball), turn that talent into some talent at a different position.
T, I think that depends somewhat on the books, on the goals and on the ability and willingness to invest. I would say something in the area of 90 million for now and upwards to 110 million in the future. That is tough to say without seeig the books. However, I have a question for you…do you believe in the concept of investing and paying now in order to make a profit in the future? Do you believe in the concept of showing a commitment to winning with the idea of winning over fan support? I am more than willing to defend myself but I have read dozens and dozens of your comments and while I respect your comments and knoweldge I just disagree. I felt that I,too,have he right to state my comments. I have a different belief in the nature of professional sports as a business. I DO NOT believe that sports are a business in the true sense of the word. I beleive that the owners do not generally buy the teams with the idea of making a killing. We are always told that the rich should pay more to the poor to take care of them (not saying I agree with that)..then why not break even with the sports team and see it as giving back to the community? I am just rambling here but wanting to say that there are a lot of considerations that go into these decisions. I know that. If Santana is unreasonable in his demands then trade him. Otherwise, I believe the team should sign him. Just my opinion as a fan.
I’m liking a Mets trade. They’re hungry for Johan and they’ll offer Gomez in a heartbeat. He’s just the kind of CF’er the Twins will want. Fast and with a huge upside. He’ll take a few years to be solid in the lineup, but he’s cheap, talented and MLB ready. Then we pick up whatever other pieces they have to offer. Pitchers, positions players, I don’t care. If we can use them, great. Otherwise, send them somewhere else for what we need. Pitching talent can always be traded for a bat. A third base bat or DH could be right around the corner for the right package.
Another thing - the Twins have money to spend this year. $25M was the number I recall. And dumping Johan will add another $13M to that. How will they ever spend that much money? Are there any potential salary dump players out there that could be our DH? I think I recall hearing the Yankees would love to dump Matsui. Like they dumped Sheffield last year.
It’s smart for the Twins to test the trade winds for Santana. I believe that it helps us gauge the market and do a true cost/benefit analysis — what do we get by trading vs. what do we get trying to sign him. Additionally, it helps give clues as to what that free agent market would be for Santana, which helps us in negotiating with him.
Baseball’s a nine-inning game. Sometimes longer. Let’s not all jump to conclusions after the first inning of the off season. We may be down a couple of runs, but there’s a lot of game left to be played. (Of course, with the offense the Twins had last season, that would be a dire situation…!)
t i think your budget #’s are fair. i guess the issue i have is that it seems, i could be wrong, that lately we spend to much on the left overs without really improving the team. (ponson, batista, ….)
on santana why does anyone think that the twins will have any leverage next summer with him having a no trade? at that point he is totally in control. can you get equal value players for the draft picks you get back?
does anyone know what his no trade is, i’ve heard total and a limited # of teams.
jen, you’re dead on about Gomez. As i’ve mentioned before, they have another slick fielding speedster named Anderson Hernandez who could play 2nd or SS for Twins. I would want him as 4th player in that deal.
Not so big on Matsui though
I think JimCrikket is right. A team will ante up and realize that Santana is the best pitcher in the game. It will be the Mets or the Yankess. Probably a Cano, hughes or Gomez, Milledge, AA prospect type deal. I do believe that Chamberlain is untouchable, but not the rest of the Yankees young players. This is the same team that swore they wouldn’t negotiate with A-Rod if he opted out and then re-signed him 2 weeks later. I think that Minaya will reason that he is going for it right now, so its reasonable to trade your two best propects if it makes you the overwhelming best team in the NL. Keeping Reyes, Wright, Beltran, Delgado together and a rotation of Santana, Martinez, Maine, and Perez would be very good. Also I watch the yankees a lot cause my best friend is a die hard Yankees fan and Melky is junk. If we trade Santana for Melky, Kennedy and a prospect I swear I am not watching the Twins for a long time.
If the Twins get one major league player plus a strong minor league prospect, they should be content. That’s probably all they can expect to get.
The theory that the Twins will probably get as much at the trade deadline as the off-season is also true. They might even get more if they can deal in the heat of a pennant race.
If they don’t trade him at all and he becomes a free agent, that is fine also. The players the Twins get in a trade are unlikely to have a huge impact anyway.
The best thing that could happen is for the greedy old tightwad, Ebeneezer Scrooge, to give Twins fans a nice Christmas present. Pay your player what he is worth, cheapskate.
I hate this. I hate that Hunter is gone, I hate that Santana is warming up in the Yankee’s bullpen, I hate free agency, I hate Curt Flood. He’s dead isn’t he?
I don’t care. I hate this. I hate feeling all warm and fuzzy in 2006, and feeling like I have been put out in the cold in 2007.
I hate thinking about trying to sell my Torii Hunter jersey on Ebay, mostly because I couldn’t sell my Soprano’s Hockey Jersey on Ebay, so I’ll be stuck with both of them for the rest of the millenium.
I hate arguing about trades that probably won’t happen. I hate the fact that everyone has an opinion, but in the end it won’t matter.
I also hate Pepperidge Farm stuffing, but this is no place to get into that. Good day!
Zach, I think the Spanks are full of it on Chamberlain. I’m calling their bluff. He can be had. If not, they don’t have the talent to get me interested the way the Muts do.
I completely disagree with Joe. Feel free to read it on my site.
I admit freely that I react out of emotion often because sports are to me, entertainment. I want to see Santana pitch for the Twins. I also think he is a winner and would love to see him anchor a strong team. Is that emotional and not reasonable? In the eyes of some yes. Well, so be it. I will be a Twins fan no matter what so all I can do is wish. A my father used to say…I can crap in one hand and wish in the other and see which one fills up faster. In other words, I have no pull and can only hope that the Twins will commit to winning. I love the fact that they have done a great job of staying competitive and hope that they will pull the trigger at the right time to make that next step and put together the team to win it all.
If we trade Nathan, we better get more than Corey Hart. Cordero just got 11.5 million a year and he can’t hold a candle to Nathan. I would say that K-Rod, Papelbon, and maybe Rivera are better at what they do than Nathan. He is an elite closer and think what he would be worth to a team like the Indians, Cubs or Braves.
Of course other GMs are saying now that Santana won’t garner as much as the Twins may hope.What do you expect them to say.Everyone will try to get him cheap if they can.But If Smith doesn’t panic and plays the game, Santana will get more than what was reported in todays paper.These guys can’t help themselves when it comes to these kind of deals.The fact that the Yankees have already publicly come out will only drive the market.This stuff is just getting started.Wait until Cashman sees Smith talking with Theo at the meetings next week,or any other GM with the pocketbook and players to pull off the deal.There are probably teams we don’t even know about that will get involved.Smith just needs to be patient,and make himself the most visable GM at the meetings.
Zach you say those three guys are better than Nathan, but that is not true. That being said Nathan isn’t better than them either. He is an elite closer, as is those three that you named. I agree we should get more than Corey Hart for him. Hart would be a good start to a deal though.
If the Twins could get as much next July as now, why are they even shopping him now? Likely because that theory isn’t true and the Twins are trying to get as much value as they can.
Joe, You’re thinking like a small market GM. The big boys don’t worry about a $140 million contract. They know inflation will make the deal look good in seven years. They will send players to the Twins to get exclusive negotiating rights to Santana, something they will not have next winter, when his price could be $40 million more.
For every analyst or GM who says what you’re saying, there is an analyst or GM who says the opposite. For example, Ken Rosenthal has said it will take a lot, and several teams are still pursuing him.
I don’t agree with your assessment. When you get four GMs, including both their Yankees and Red Sox, competing to acquire him, he will get what a top left handed Cy Young award winner should get in a trade, contract or no.
I think the Twins would be doing a good job if they traded Santana to the Yankees for Hughes and Cabrera plus some younger, i.e. less touted prospects that the Twins are good at identifying. I think the Yankees are bluffing by saying that they won’t include Hughes. Santana replaces Hughes and vice versa, plus Cabrera gives us a centerfielder with some upside. The trick would be to maybe deal some more pitching to strengthen the rest of the offense. If the Twins got Hughes, I would turn around and deal Garza or Slowey or Baker for the best young 3b/2b/DH that I could find.
By the way Twinstalker if you think Cano isn’t a star you are crazy. I watch the Yankees a lot and he not a guess hitter, he has the smoothest stroke on that entire hall of fame laden lineup. He doesn’t have good patienence and never takes a walk, but it doesn’t matter that much because he is such a great hitter that he usually puts the ball in play. As good as he is, he still is just not enough straight up for Santana. The only player of the teams involved that I would take straight up is Wright. I think a Santana and Casilla for Cano Hughes would be relatively fair and beneficial for both teams. Althought if this is going to go down I seriously want Kemp, Kershaw, LaRoche. But the dodgers probably would only give up two of them unless the Angels get Cabrera and the Dodgers have to make a splash with Santana to stay relavent in LA.
I like where Tedge and Zach are going. I still think Santana can be resigned, and trade Nathan to free up $$ and fill a hole or two.
Hunter+Silva+Nathan= $23 million saved
do you believe in the concept of investing and paying now in order to make a profit in the future? Do you believe in the concept of showing a commitment to winning with the idea of winning over fan support?
While I believe in investments and showing commitment, I also believe this is not the time to do it. If the Twins sign Santana for what he wants, it will take not only a significant payroll increase just to keep him and the other 24 on the roster around, but a significant payroll increase on top of that to improve the team for the immediate future.
20 million is significant, but right now a majority of that would get gobbled up in long term contracts for Santana, Morneau, and Nathan (if most people who want payroll increased by that amount have their way).
At that point, they’re right back where they started, and still have no money to improve the supporting players.
Trading Santana brings in at least 2 guys who can contribute immediately and will be more affordable for the time being. This is of course working on the understanding that the core of players that work out over the next two years would then be the first to benefit from the increased stadium revenues.
As I said before, the idea now is to reshuffle the payroll. You can do a LOT more with a 10 million increase if you spread it amoungst a number of players as opposed to pumping it all into one guy simply because he’s a fan favorite.
The Twins screwed up with Hunter. If they simply go with the more vocal fans, they’ll end up getting screwed over with Santana as well. And all for naught.
I’ll continue to believe that there’s more than one team out there who will be willing to provide fair market value in return for Johan Santana
Agreed. All it’s going to take is one team making a legit offer. If New York bites, Boston will likely counter. I could see the Mets doing so as well.
Same for Dodgers/Anahiem. It seems lately that LAA’s been doing everything it can to steal the real LA’s thunder. I could see them getting involved if the Dodgers came in.
But they can’t get the ball rolling without talking to SOMEBODY. And that’s what it looks like they’re doing. The best place to start (as much as I’d hate to see it) is New York, as they have the money and mindset to make a move like this.
If the Twins could get as much next July as now, why are they even shopping him now? Likely because that theory isn’t true and the Twins are trying to get as much value as they can.
Every day that goes by between now and July 31st is one more day that Santana can get hurt. Or (in the worse case) begin to show signs he’s not the pitcher he used to be.
That’s the mistake they made with guys like Lohes, Romero, Mays, and now likely Rincon. Four guys who were all at one point worth quite a bit in trade. But they held on too long and watched as all four pitched themselves into worthless ness. The most notorious pair being Lohse and Romero.
The players the Twins get in a trade are unlikely to have a huge impact anyway.
The Twins will not trade Santana for players they do not think will contribute immediately. That is the point of searching for a trade partner.
MLB.com reports that if the Twins deal Santana they won’t be trading away any more starting pitching.
If I had any confidence that the Twins would pour saved money into the team for the future then I might feel differently, But I have none. As I have said many times before, if the Twins trade for some great prospects, they too will be gone when they want a new contract. I am hoping to be proved wrong but have seen nothing to believe otherwise.
If the players the Twins get in return don’t make a big impact, then it was a poor trade. Unless you’re willing to say Santana is unlikely to make a big impact on which ever team he is traded to.
No team gives up top prospects anymore. I don’t think the Twins will get much whenever they trade Johan. Draft picks may be the best return.
Craig, you should take that point up with TT, he said earlier a lot of people say that, but he sees no evidence of it.
I would enjoy that discussion on both sides.
If the Mets have the right package, it would be a plus that Santana would be in the National League. I know that comment seems obvious, but it would doubly painful to face Santana in the playoffs, if the Twins can make it that far again.
If the Twins don’t trade Santana and expect to lose him at the end of the year, they really can’t afford trade away any young pitching prospects.
If they do trade him, they certainly can’t trade away any starting pitching prospects.
The only way the Twins can rationally trade away young pitchers is to sign Johan.
I sure Bill Smith gets creative because economically you can keep Santana. Really the only question is if he wants to stay. I have a bad feeling that Smith has already gone to him and said we want to keep you and what will it take. I bet Johan doesn’t want to stay and Smith knows he has to be proactive. If this is the case I don’t blame him and I would be doing the same thing shopping him. I think that maybe locking up Morneau and making a deal for a third baseman might convince him that we will try to be competative. We can deal Nathan for young talented 3B or CF and the deal Baker or Slowey and Rincon for the remaining part of the 3B/CF combo. The remaining about 15-17 million in payroll go towards the pricey extensions to Morneau and Santana. I would even be open to trading Garza instead of Slowey/Baker if we could get a really talented CF/3B. Forget Delmon Young, how about Carl Crawford he would fit in much better with this club. So we lose Hunter, Silva, Nathan, Rincon and Baker or Garza. Yet we lock up Santana and Morneau and receive young talent at CF and 3B for Nathan and Garza/Baker. All four of those outgoing guys are replaced by dealing a couple of our abundant pitcher. We have enough depth(Slowey,Perkins,Blackburn,Guerrier) to replace Silva, Rincon and Baker/Garza. Also Neshek slides right into that role of closer with solid arms in Crain and Guerrier to back him up. The starting pitching wouldn’t even take a hit, but the bullpen would be diminshed with both Nathan and Rincon gone. Yet the bullpen would still be above average with Neshek, Crain, Guerrier, Reyes and our overabundace of young starters in long relief roles.
don’t let the media keep telling you we can’t get much. everybody is posturing, other gm’s trying to get the price down, our local guys trying not to make the twins front office look bad. don’t think someone won’t offer something good the problem is picking the best offer and not making a mistake. that could really set us back years.
Zach, i totally agree. The Twins can afford Santana. Nathan and Garza allow us to fill those holes at CF/3B. Agreed on Crawford too. Let Neshek close
Does anybody else salivate at the idea of Mauer,Wright,Morneau middle of the lineup? That would be on par with the Yankees and Red Sox middle part of the order. We definitley would not be offensively challenged anymore. They are 3 of the 10 best young players in the game and are all 26 and under. At a minimum we would have Mauer for 3 more years, Wright for 4 more, and asssuming an extension for Morneau 5 more years.
Wright is the poster boy in Queens. Not a chance, even for Santana.
MLB.com reports that if the Twins deal Santana they won’t be trading away any more starting pitching.
That makes sense. You either trade the young guys and sign the vet, or you keep the young guys and sign the vet.
But there’s probably a few guys on the “backend” of the list of pitchers that could be dealt regardless of what happens with Santana or Garza. I wouldn’t expect to get much though, perhaps a 3B, CF, or DH…but no more than just one of those.
I’m also of the mindset that if they deal Santana, Nathan should be traded as well. Neshek can be trained in as closer while they’re restructuring.
But if they sign Santana, it means they want to stay competitive sooner than later, which means Nathan would be worth keeping around as well.
Palerider,
Re: Teams and trading top prospects.
Well, we would have to look at all baseball trade history. Maybe the theory could be proved right or wrong if we compiled plenty of charts and diagrams. It would remain debatable even then, as what constitutes a top prospect is highly subjective.
It’s just an opinion. Joe C. seems to share it.
No team gives up top prospects anymore.
You can blame some of that on TR’s “steals” that got him Liriano, Santana, etc.
Teams are afraid of giving up a young guy who may EVENTUALLY turn into something. Even if he never actually does.
Well, that and they’re hoping that by going younger they can keep their payroll costs down. Veterans are starting to get WAY over valued these days. You can thank most teams that give in to a Boras player
It might make sense, but just like everything else, it’s pure speculation. If the Twins deal Santana, they could deal Garza too.
Nothing will surprise me.
“I’m also of the mindset that if they deal Santana, Nathan should be traded as well. Neshek can be trained in as closer while they’re restructuring.”
I agree…while I like Nathan a lot (I think he’s one of the top 5 closers in the league), what’s the point of having an elite closer if the opportunities to actually save a game are infrequent?
CF Crawford
SS Bartlett
C Mauer
1B Morneau
RF Cuddyer
3B Blalock
DH Monroe
LF Kubel
2B Casilla
1) Santana
2) Liriano
3) Slowey
4) Baker
5) Bonser/Perkins
CL Neshek
SU Crain
SU Guerrier
This could be done people. I almost guarantee you that Tampa would take Garza and Rincon for Crawford. You get good young talent back from dealing Nathan to a playoff team and package that talent with some of our pitching talent and acquire Blalock. This is a talented and playoff bound team.
I know it’s been said previously, but I would seriously talk with the Mets re: Santana. I think they have the offensive prospects we need and are looking to attempt to solidify an aging starting pitching staff.
Tyner and McDonald could patch together CF until Span is ready. It wouldn’t be pretty, but the Twins have had far worse.
Bill Smith has already said the Twins will allow several players to compete for 3B. Smith has not indicated who would be in the competition. Macri, Buscher, and Tolbert are probables.
I’m not agreeing or disagreeing, I just think it would make for an interesting discussion.
And true, TT has mentioned “top prospect” is a highly subjective term after explaining to me how Ellsbury was never a top prospect because he doesn’t have power.
At the deadline last year Texas unloaded Tiexiera for four players,the best of whom was Saltalamaccia(what are the odds I got those two names spelled right!).The other three were lower level prospects.But I think this is more of an example as to why you don’t want to wait until July to trade Santana.
Whoever is going to get him would just as soon have on the hill for opening day one would suspect.And again,whoever gets him will have the chance to sign him long term before the deal is finalized.Thats the advantage of getting him now,because the the cost of signing him could be higher in July.
Why not sign Santana to a six year 120 - 130 million dollar contract with a partial no trade clause (pay hike kicker of 2-3 million). If the Twins suck in 2-3 years then trade him for a boat load because he will probally be paid like a journey man pitcher at 20 -25 million a year then and have 3 - 4 years remaining on his contract for his new team.
To get Crawford would take a package of prospects. We have enough trouble letting go of one prospect much less a package. Delmon Young has a lot of upside and could be plugged into right if Cuddy was willing to move back to 3B. Or if Gardy was willing to move him I should say. I also say that everyone who thinks we’re going to get a windfall of young talent is setting themselves up for disappointment. Yes, Bill Smith should explore all of his options. Yes, he should play GM’s off of each other. Yes, the Yankees will give a lot if they think the BoSox have a shot at landing him. Yes, if the Angels get Cabrera, the Dodgers will want to make an impact trade even though they’re looking to upgrade offense and not pitching. It doesn’t change the fact that teams know Smith has his back against the wall and needs to get something done. I hope I’m wrong and I hope we get multiple impact players, I just don’t see it happening. I also think if we do trade him, we should still consider trading some pitching prospects for a proven player. ATKINS! ATKINS! ATKINS!
Zack, I like the way you think. I agree that Wright would be great, but there is no way they are trading him. If it were up to me I would give Santana what he wants and trade Nathan and Garza. Trading those two should easily fill the wholes we have on offense. On the other hand I don’t think the Neshek should close. Gimmick guys like him, tend to make poor closers. I know he is good, but leave him where he is so his use can be more specialized. Besides closers grow on trees and tend to come from unexpected areas (like Nathan). Sign someone like David Riske and just let him do it. Closing is about opportunity not dominance. So there is really no true need to have a dominant guy. Use Neshek to dominate in spots, not just in the ninth inning. Anyways, keep Santana, trade excess pitching to plug holes. That is what the Twins should do.
If the Twins deal Santana, they could deal Garza too.
It would depend on what they got back for Santana. If they got a proven young pitcher as well as a position guy then MAYBE Garza would be up as well.
However at this point I think it’s Garza OR Santana. With Slowey, Baker, Bonser, Blackburn, etc all up for grabs regardless.
if Cuddy was willing to move back to 3B.
Cuddyer was a horrible 3B. His arm’s shown itself to be worth something out in right. At 3rd I can see many balls rocketing into the right field bleachers.
I forgot about Blalock. Atkins, isn’t that good (Coors field inflation) and it would take a lot to get him, Most everyone else is too expensive. Blalock could be had on the relative cheap. I also like the option of trading Garza for Delmon Young if Cuddyer is actually willing and ABLE to play third base.
If the Twins do trade Santana it is only because they are cheap! If they trade Santana then they might as well rebuild for the future and trade all the guys who will leave in the next few years now. If Santana is gone, Nathan and Morneau won’t want to play here. I would trade all three and start over if we plan on letting Santana go…
What if we get a Joba Chamberlain or a Phil Hughes in a Santana trade? Is Garza still untouchable? How about for Atkins or Stewart?
There is absolutely no way the Rays would take Garza and Rincon for Crawford. They need bullpen help and offense. Their starting rotation is young and solid. Rincon isn’t going to help anybody’s bullpen and Garza wouldn’t be enough of an upgrade over Kazmir, Shields, Sonnanstine, or Neimann.
If the Twins do trade Santana it is only because they are cheap!
No, it would be for the following reason…
If they trade Santana then they might as well rebuild for the future
That’s what a Santana trade would indicate. They’ve already beat you to it.
Nathan and Morneau won’t want to play here.
Nathan won’t have much choice in the matter. His value to the Twins will be lower without an ace pitcher. And an ace closer in a rebuilding phase is pointless. He’d be gone anyway.
Morneau on the other hand is part of the offense they’re trying to rebuild. Trading Santana now is a means of opening up some current payroll to make sure they can keep him around.
The guys they bring in from the Santana and Nathan trades would slot in just fine, and would be ready to compete by 2010 at the earliest.
And in the meantime, they’d be affordable, meaning the Twins could lock up the current guys until the new stadium opens and use that money to start signing the guys from the trades who worked out.
As a Minnesotan who now lives in NY, it will be incredibly sickening if Santana goes to the Yanks….unless the Twins fleece them. I’ve had enough of the arrogant Yankee fan telling me how they are going to get Santana cause they are the Yankees. uck!
What if we get a Joba Chamberlain or a Phil Hughes in a Santana trade? Is Garza still untouchable? How about for Atkins or Stewart?
Potentially. However losing Garza AND Santana would be a pretty big blow to the staff, especially since Liriano’s status is up in the air.
Liriano, Hughes/Chamberlain, Baker, Bonser, Slowey? I’d rather see Liriano, Garza, Hughes/Chamberlain, Baker, Slowey/Bonser. Then take some of the guys in the minors (or if they’re ready to move up a Bonser or Slowey) and deal them.
Joe, I wasn’t killing you, so it’s all cool. Hopefully I will see you at the Pohlad witch trials though. I want to know which one of those greedy idiots didn’t let Terry “NO BALLS and 3 strikes” Ryan have more of an opportunity to make this team better!
So I think I get what you are saying which again leads me back to if we cannot get Ellsbury from the Red Sox, the only deal that makes a lot of sense to me is with the Dodgers.
LaRoche, Kemp, Abreu, and Mattingly.
We would then have to receive a pitcher in another deal. 3B and CF in 2008, 2B in 2009, and 3B/SS in 2010-2011 for Mattingly.
I still think Slowey, Bonser, Span, and Nathan to the Devil Rays for Upton, Young or Crawford, and the japanese 3rd baseman…
With Ellijah Dukes, and Baldelli available, and with Longoria waiting in AAA… the D-Rays are going to be more willing, and by having Bonser who is a Tampa Native, and Slowey who is a top prospect entering the rotation with Kazmier, Shields, and Jackson it will give the D-RAys a very solid rotation, Nathan would give them a closer, moving Reyes back to the setup man would give them him and Wheeler which would make the Devil Rays a real pain the in the side to the Red Sox and the Yankees. Maybe even a .500 team which then gives them hope.
Trading Blackburn, Duensing, and Cali to the Pirates for Jason Bay, and Bobby Bradley.
Trading Juan Rincon to anyone for a AA ball player with a pulse.
And firing Joe Vavra, someone who knows something about hitting, and working a pitching count would be great… If they could teach Joe Mauer how to be a man and pull the freaking ball over the fence more than 3 times a season (pretty sure he only has 8 pulled homers in his career) is just ridiculous out of your number 3 hitter unless he’s TONY FREAKING GWYNN! Mauer’s not that good of a hitter.
I’ve never been a big Cuddy fan, but that guy can throw. Keep the bazooka in RF.
jen,
I don’t think the Rockies are set on leaving Stewart at 3B and aren’t really in any rush to trade either. The latest is Stewart is working to play 2B.
T, how could anyone not prefer a rotation with Liriano, Hughes, Garza over one absent a Garza? But if he’s the price to pay for 30 HR’s and a good glove, I say do it. Not sure if we can score that for him though.
To me it seems simple. If you are right and the Twins won’t get much for Santana in a trade, we need to re-sign him. We let Torii go, we’ll get Silva go. We have some money to spend and I can’t imagine opening the new park without Santana pitching opening night.
Atkins numbers are not inflated by Coors. He had a better OPS at home but hit more HR’s and RBIs on the road. 15/58 vs 10/53. It would take Garza, but I think it would be worth it.
Palerider, I heard that they’re working him at 2B and its going well. Tough break. How bad do they need pitching though? I haven’t nosed into that very much. Anyone know?
BC,
The Twins don’t want their players standing around with their bats on their shoulders, arguing balls and strikes. It’s good to be agressive and also good to hit the ball to all fields. Vavra is great.
bc: LMAO! Terry “NO BALLS and THREE STRIKES” Ryan.That may be the line of the year,and sadly very true!
Willy Taveras might be available. I’d rather have him than Atkins.
Nathan for Willy? That’s an awful deal, but since Mr. Cheap won’t pay his players…..
Every year pitching gets more expensive. If the Twins give Johan $22 - $25 million a year for 6 years now he will seem underpaid in a few years. Next off-season - Jake Peavy, C.C. Sabathia, Rich Harden, and Ben Sheets will be free agents. Peavy and Sabathia would want Johan money or more. Kazmir and other will follow the next year and want even more. 3-4 years from now the Silva’s of the world will be making $18-$20 million. Everyone thought that Mannys and Carlos Beltran contracts were absurd at the time they were signed but they look like bargains today! Pitching is not going to get cheaper. When you have the best pitcher in baseball you have to keep him. Sign him now and trade him for real value down the road if you must!
In my very unscientific payroll analysis for ‘08, with Santana I have 23 players at around 51mil (arb 7.5 for JMor, 5 for Cud), w/o him 22 players at 38mil. Payroll was originally pitched in the 70-80 range.
Question - what are the chances some of the costs for the land and stadium begin creeping into the magic break-even “small-market” formula?
A team without 2 studs in the rotation have no chance to win any post-season series. With Santana gone and no guarantees that Liriano makes a full recovery, the Twins have no chance for any post-season games for many years. Trade Nathan or one or two of the young guns for a third baseman and a DH. Sign Santana.
Craig-
This team needs a new hitting philosophy. That Torii Hunter, Kirby Puckett swing at any crap thrown mentality doesn’t work for a team once they get in the playoffs.
The Red Sox don’t kill you just with solo homers.. they have men on base all the time… the Yankees always have runners on base… The Twins? They always have Nick Punto to screw up a bunt, Jason Bartlett to swing and miss, and Jason Kubel who doesn’t understand the concept of hit and run.
For once I agree with Jim Cricket
Trade Santana if you get max value for him, if not, which is the wya its looking, then SIGN HIM
How about this? Where do people think Johan wants to go?
My money would be on the Mets. National League’s best team - late-season collapse notwithstanding. With that, a chance to mystify a whole different crop of batters who haven’t spent the last several seasons working on how to hit that change-up. A bevy of Latin players - Los Mets ain’t just a website. A large market with pockets to pay him. And the chance to bang the ball around. I think this is where he wants to go and that could have a significant impact on how this plays out.
Gary, Your post is right on the money.
jhawk90, Your question is a good one. I think those costs have already crept into the equation.
CoyoteTom: How many post season series did the Twins win WITH Santana in the rotation? ZERO.Also I don’t think the Rockies starting rotation qualifies as having two studs in their rotation,and they made it to the World series.
T- I am with you. Don’t trade Garza unless you get something unbelievable for him.
If we do a deal with the Yankees and can get Hughes/Chamberlain, or even Kennedy along with another player probably Cano, or Cabrera the team would not need to trade Garza because we would still have Rincon who the Dodgers might be interested in, the Mets might be interested in him as well.
Bonser has major league experience, and has proven to be about as good as Lohse, or Silva… though silva had a good year… we might be able to get a deal for him, and Slowey is still highly regarded, and I think we should trade him while we can. Nathan is to be had to the highest bidder.
Do the yankees deal, I still think the Devil Rays would be willing to give Nathan a long term contract, and would like Bonser and Slowey.
Do you think the Dodgers would trade LaRoche for Slowey, Bonser, and Rincon?
BC - When Denard wins the batting title, you will be happy we kept Vavra and the old philosophy. Ha-ha.
I plan on boycotting the Twins and there stadium paid for by the taxpayers of the county. Mr. Cheapo must be laughing his face off. He got his stadium. His team is worth hundreds of millions of dollars because of it and his revenue will increase substantially. He has no reason to have a competitive team now. He is making all the fans that need preferred stadium seating to purchase season tickets to watch a garbage team now so they can breathe garbage outside in a few years. He can pocket thirty or forty million more the next few years and not have to worry about unsold seats until 2012 or so.
Do you think the Dodgers would trade LaRoche for Slowey, Bonser, and Rincon?
The Twins are attempting to rebuild/reshuffle. That’s giving up a bit too much for one guy. Maybe 2:1, but not 3:1.
I’ve heard LaRoche has a bad back. MLB.com has reported that the Twins are wondering why the Dodgers don’t like him.
can’t we extend him, then get more back in a trade
E.B. Johnson - That’s a great post and sums things up nicely.
EB Johnson, here here to your post. I wish I could also say that I will boycott the Twins, but unfortunately they were and are my first love, and dont know if I can do it.
The Yankees will have your beloved Johan Santana. And you will take what we give you. Enjoy the long cold winter.
Who does the Yankees want pitching for them against the Red Sox in the 7th game of the ALCS - Santana or Haren?
Santana:
28 years old
ERA last 5 yrs: 3.07, 2.61, 2.87, 2.77, 3.33
Majors Avg ERA = 3.22
2007 WHIP = 1.07
Last two playoffs: 20 IP / 3 ER
Haren:
27 years old
ERA last 3 yrs: 3.73, 4.12, 3.07
Majors Avg ERA = 3.82
2007 WHIP = 1.21
2006 playoffs: 11 IP / 5 ER
Winning the World Series is probably worth over $100 million to the Yankees. Don’t think an extra $5 million per year is going to scare the Yankees (see what they paid Clemens last year).
It’s not even close.
Joe C. sources are trying to lower the market so their competitors don’t bid much.
It won’t work. If Santana is traded, it will be much more than what’s mentioned above.
No wonder everybody loves the Yankees.
I hope the twins (and the writers who cover them) realize that they have a lot of leverage here too. Santana is trying to maximize his contract, which is the rational thing for him to do. But I guarantee he also realizes how irresponsible it would be for him to go into 08 without an extension and risk $50 million or more by having a down year or suffering a severe injury. No way he does not sign before the season starts, whether with the Twins or another team after waiving the no trade clause.
I think if we make it clear only an unbelievanle deal will get santana in a trade that we will either get it, or santana will resign with us.
Come on, you guys really think that Tampa wouldn’t take Garza and Rincon for Crawford. I think they would do it in a heartbeat. Patrick I think that the Rays have a ton of talent on offense, but seriously need arms. Garza gives them a frontline guy that they control for five more years and can pair with Kazmir and Shields. Rincon would help their pen immensely. I think they are more willing to move Crawford beecause he is more expensive than they are Upton and Young. I like Young cause of his right handed bat and talent but he is an ass and would cause problems here. I really think that Upton is the one player they will not move. I think Kazmir and Young are available for a large return, but Crawford can be had for slightly less. I put Garza about on Par with Hughes, they both have mid 90s fastballs and sharp sliders. I think hughes is a little more refined and uses his breaking stuff better. But honestly I think Garza has better stuff. We NEED offensive talent. Guess what, the Rangers and Devil Rays NEED Pitching. This makes us very good trade partners. The Rangers don’t need Blalock, the Rays don’t need Crawford and we have a ton major league starting pitching talent.
I think that although starting pitching is immensely important, it is still obviously important to have balance. The Red Sox last year are the perfect example of how to build a team. The mix of young talent and veteran talent and the balance of offense and pitching. It is harder to accomplish the young and old talent mixture on a mid market budget, but we can just as easily develop our organization to be a balance between pitching and position players. It is necessary to even the allotment of talent out when it becomes too skewed in one direction. It is quite obvious that we have about seven or eight pitchers who could start in the majors, but our position player cupboard is bare. When Buscher, Tolbert and Span are your best young options in the minors, you are in serious trouble. Granted Parmalee and Revere look like they could be good, yet they are multiple years away from playing and producing in the show.
Teams that need pitching:
Kansas City
Baltimore
Tampa Bay
Texas
Pittsburgh
Cincinnati
Houston
Washington
Colorado
Which of these clubs have an abundance of position player talent and have players that would fit our needs?
From SI.com:
The Twins have opened trade discussions for Johan Santana by asking the Yankees for a package of at least three young players that would include one of their three top starters — Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes or Ian Kennedy — plus center fielder Melky Cabrera.
The Twins are talking with several teams and are asking for a large return for their two-time Cy Young winner. From Boston, they asked about one of two top young pitchers — Clay Buchholz or Jon Lester — plus center field prodigy Jacoby Ellsbury, league sources told SI.com.
I would give up a lot to get crawford (garza + other pitcher not named slowey, liriano, nathan, neshek or santana) and a little to get blaylock (bonser, blackburn or maybe perkins). Together with signing santana and a decent DH to platoon with monroe could be a dangerous team in 08.
Player pool of 3B/CF that needs to be targeted:
Crede
DeJesus
Cano
Betemit
Ellsbury
Crisp
Mora
Crawford
Matthews
Adam Jones
Blalock
Chavez
Lamb
Freel
Hart
Bay
Gomez
Milledge
Victorino
Church
R.Davis
LaRoche
Kemp
Atkins
Taveras
Tracy
I see guys coming out of this group of players. I am not including guys I think do us no good like Pedro Feliz or Mike Cameron.
Heyman On Santana
SI.com’s Jon Heyman has the latest on the Johan Santana trade talks.
* The Twins want Melky Cabrera plus one of Chamberlain/Hughes/Kennedy from the Yankees. If the Yanks can surrender Kennedy rather than Hughes or Joba, they’ve done a nice job. Sounds like they would consider giving up Hughes though.
* The Twins want one of Clay Buchholz or Jon Lester plus Jacoby Ellsbury. Lester seems to be the only one of the three the Red Sox would part with, while they’d also be fine with sending Coco Crisp over.
* Heyman names the Mets, Dodgers, Angels, and Mariners as interested parties. First I’ve heard of the Ms being in the mix. Regarding the Dodgers, check out an interview with Ned Colletti. For what it’s worth, he doesn’t seem anxious to deal 3-5 kids for a guy like Santana or Miguel Cabrera.
this from mlbtraderumors.com..
if this is the case..
melky and hughes..
i dont want lester and coco..
heck, coco and buchholtz dont even get it done..
melky and hughes
one other thing…
the twins will not make a 2 for 1 trade..
melky and hughes for johan? wont happen..
my guess is the twins will make darn sure its a melky/hughes/ some low prospect that is so raw and has major upside for johan..
melky/hughes/soon to be stud / sananta
do it
I am convinced that trading Nathan, Garza, Rincon, maybe one more pitching prospect Blackburn/Swarzak would be enough to acquire Crawford and Blalock. Probably not straight up, but in the talent that we could acquire from them and piece together to suit another team’s pressing needs. You just have to be creative, maybe consider some three way deals. Think about it, maybe Nathan to the Braves or Cubs, Blalock to the Twins, and some good pitching prospects from the Braves or Cubs to the Rangers.
It’s also frustrating watching these teams hold their good players for trades. There asking for Santana, and there putting up all these restrictions. Don’t fall for it Smith, it’s crap! We deserve a fair trade for him or watch the Twins PR and team go down the drain.
Let me state again that Santana for Melky and Kennedy is an awful and horrible trade. I want both Hughes and Cano and if they can’t even get one, then Smith would need to be fired before the season even starts. Melky can’t do any better than .270 8 70 in that unbelievable lineup? He is the weakest member of the lineup and gets a steady diet of fastballs and thats all he can do. Imagine him hitting in our lineup with the only real threat being Morneau (maybe Mauer if his testicles ever drop) it would not be pretty. He is just not that good. We HAVE about FIVE pitching prospects who are better than Kennedy. Horrific deal
With the Yankees Hughes or Cano has to be involved. With the Mets Gomez has to be involved. With the Red Sox you have to get Buchholz. With the Dodgers you have to get Kershaw and Kemp/LaRoche.
These deals of Lester, Crisp, AA Prospect and Cabrera, Kennedy, AA Prospect make me sick. Who do the Yankees and Red Sox think they are witholding unproven young talent like Hughes, Chamberlain, Ellsbury, Buchholz? The trade is for the best pitcher in baseball not Kyle Lohse (who mind you is about to get $8 mil a year) you have to ante up. I think the Yankees and Red Sox see Terry Ryan gone and our financial predicament and think they fleece us.
We need to start playing these games and start playing the Yankees off the Red Sox and the Mets off the Yankees. Even start playing the LA teams off each other about who will be the biggest draw in town once Johan goes to the other team.
I agree with almost everything you said Zach. If we trade Santana for garbage esp to the Yankees I will be sick to my stomach.
I like the idea of looking into Blalock. I brought him up months ago. I also would kick the tires on a guy like Colon. The Cubs have stated they would be willing to trade Prior. Wonder what the asking price would be. I would check it out. Twins would be a great fit for a guy like Prior. We handle pitchers very well, pitch counts etc. Also teach him an effective change up, a less stressful pitch.
Lots of options. Just hope the Twins don’t settle.
Agreed on Melky. He’s an average at best CF and does not have the bat to play a corner spot. I would not play him over kubel or cuddyer, so making him a big piece of a trade for santana is just stupid. If we trade with the yankees we need 3 of the 5 being mentioned - and only one can be melky or kennedy. Wasn’t there talk in the past of cano possibly being moved to CF? That would be interesting.
You go to the official LA DODGERS web site and most of their loyal fans don’t want to give up fair value in a trade for Johan.Maybe one of you creative bloggers should go there and beat the drums for our side.As someone mentioned here yesterday that the thought of having another Koufax might be appealing to their fan base.Maybe we can drive up the potential trade value
Boof Coming to Tampa?
By R.J. Anderson Section: News
Posted on Tue Nov 27, 2007 at 03:25:45 PM EDT
I have from a reliable source that Boof Bonser has told people close to him that a deal with him heading to Tampa is imminent.
Okay, here’s some more info:
- Boof is in Tampa for a pro-am golf tournament.
- He apparently slipped and told some people that his agent has told him that the Twins and Rays are talking to send him here and that something is close.
- As for potential names the obvious one pops to mind and that’s Delmon, if that is the case it would be a package deal.
- Apparently Boof said that Delmon is the Twins’ target.
I’m not sure I’ve ever heard of a player having so much info unless Boof is either [Dukes quote] us or his agent is definitely in on the talks.
For those wondering; Boof is five years from free agency but may qualify for Super Two arbitration. He also shares agents with B.J. Upton - Larry Reynolds.
Another “for those wondering”:
Thanks to J.B. Downie
Apparently the Rays aren’t discussing the deal - or at least not acknowledging it - who knows if Bonser even knows what the hell is going on at this point.
Also let me state my source was very close to the J.P. Peterson Hot Lunch show, and that’s where the information originated from, I fully intend on gathering the tape and proving that this was hardly an “internet rumor”.
what do you think about this tade we get red of boof the site foud it on was http://www.sbnation.com/ then baseball blogs then you go to the rays or the twins
That is very interesting. I hope it is for Crawford. Sounds like maybe Garza and Boof? for Crawford or Young. So who the hell is going to play center if we acquire Young. That leaves us with two left fielders and two right fielders. I am not crazy about putting Cuddyer back at third. HE finally broke through in right and started playing to his potential when put firmly into that right field spot. He has a great arm out there too.
Why do I have the feeling that the deal could be Boof for Baldelli? This wouldn’t really do that much to help us unless he could play more than 60 games which he won’t be able to do.
Here’s a pic of Santana in a Yankees uniform. He looks pretty good.
http://samiamsports.blogspot.com/2007/11/johan-santana-opening-day-starter-for.html
Seriously just go get Crawford, Atkins or Blalock. If Santana is traded then keep Garza and get Gomez, Kemp, LaRoche, or Cano with a quality pitcher for Santana. This isn’t that hard lets get it done.
Depending on the package, I would give up Boof for Delmon in a heartbeat. Only if the other player was a low level prospect with upside. Young has had some incidents in the past, but he was pretty clean last season. Hell, look at Dmitri Young. People can change. And if the person is a potential .330 hitter with power, we should give him a chance.
I don’t see the Rays giving up Crawford for anything less than 3 top prospects. Garza and Rincon would not get it done… Garza and Boof, maybe.
As far as Melky is concerned, he’s a 23 year old kid. He’s got a huge upside and if we could get Hughes and another prospect, probably Jackson, I’d take it. Not right away though. Let some other teams bid first.
This from an SI article, “Owner Carl Pohlad has long been criticized both locally and nationally for not using more of his banking fortune on the roster, and Twins loyalists have been complaining about losing Hunter and perhaps more stars while county sales taxes are being collected for the new ballpark.” Twins loyalists! That’s us!! Except not many of us are complaining about losing Hunter. We’re just complaining in a more general sense.
Gotta figure its boof for baldelli.. unless they are making a run at dukes.. or gomes..
if garza is included in the trade then there is no way this team trades johan.. is there? trade garza/boof for young/baldelli?
trade johan for hughes, cano? or hughes melky? wouldnt need melky if we got young baldelli
barlett - ss
mauer - c
young - cf/lf/dh
morneau - 1b
cuddy - rf
cano - 2b
monroe - cf/lf/dh?
kubel - cf/lf/dh?
punto/buscher - 3b
alright.. something sounds wrong with the tampa deal. unless its boof/garza for crawford and iwamura
crawford would play center
That line up wouldn’t even scare an “A” ball league team.
alright.. here is my conclusion..
iwamura has to be part of the deal as well.. they have evan longoriato play 3rd.. iwamura and baldelli
rocco gets the CF job
iwamura gets 3rd base
twins will ship out boof and a reliever.. boof and rincon? boof and crain?
bartlett
iwamura
mauer
cuddy
morneau
monroe/kubel
monroe/kubel
baldelli
punto/casilla
santana, liriano, garza, baker, slowey
perkins
reyes
neshek
guerrier
nathan
rincon/crain
Nick your comment of:
That line up wouldn’t even scare an “A” ball league team.
a lineup of mauer morneau delmon young cano cuddy monroe kubel is a decent lineup.. alot better then the lineup last year
Joseph,
No one in their right mind moves a true #1 for anything less than 3-4 big-time talents. NY based media has floated the “less than expected” rumors and the balance of the country has lapped them up as gospel. The unfortunate thing is the Twins braintrust has most likely been duped with the rest of you.Anything short of a Billingsley,Kemp,Kershaw & LaRoche package would be criminal. Yankees - start with Cano & Chamberlain and add from there. The Twins should receive a maximum return if they indeed feel it necessary to move Santana. If they choose not to compete - get out of the game.
There is no way we get all four of them from the dodgers, that is highway robbery. But three of them is what I would want out of the deal. Also just Cano and Chamberlain would be pretty even. Patrick are you crazy? Boof and somebody else for Delmon Young. Young is a potential all-star and Boof is back of the rotation journeyman type starter. Why do think that you would have to give up way more for Crawford than Young. Young and Upton are the bats they are going to build around. They are going to have to pay Crawford $23.5 million over the next 3 years and then he will walk for sure. While $8 mil a season is a bargain for a player of his caliber, they are the Devil Rays. Also they can control Young and Upton for five more years so they would be far less willing to give them up than a guy who can walk in three years. CRAWFORD would be a great addition to this team and him tearing up the bases in front of Mauer and Morneau would be awesome. Also paying him an average of $8 mil a year for the next three years allows us to fit Santana’s monster contract in the payroll. The key is getting a good third baseman who wont’ cost that much. Blalock will cost about $6 mil and can be a free agent after next year. Although what is the difference between keeping Nathan for $6 mil and letting him walk or trading him for talent that can get Blalock for $6 mil and the possibilty that he could walk too.
Is there any real talk about interest in Crawford or is that just wishful thinking?
Do NOT trade Santana for Melky and Hughes. How does that make us any better? Yes, Melky is young, but he really has not shown much in his time in the majors and he is protected in the lineup by a bunch of all-stars. I will be pissed if that is the type of deal that goes through.
Kevin S., how can you expect a team to give up 3-4 big time talents for one guy? If you do that you end up with a team that basically looks like the 2006 Twins: a team with 3 or 4 gaping holes in the lineup. On that team, the best pitcher in baseball won 15 games.
Like Joe said, get Santana and you get the chance to watch him lose 2-3 every fifth day.
I’m starting toward just keeping him for 2008. Take the money you offered Torii, buy some decent players, trade one of the young pitchers, and hope Morneau rebounds and Mauer can play more than 90 games. I think they have a shot.
2007 Twins. Oh, how I wish it was two years ago.
Boof for Baldelli is win-win, as not alot would be expected, but the potential is unlimited.
if its a straight up boof for baldelli trade.. hmmm.. doesnt do much for the lineup..
barlett
mauer
baldelli
morneau
cuddy
kubel/monroe
kubel/monroe
punto
casilla
tyner, redmond, ? ? ? ? ?
I am tired of reading all these projections of half ass deals, with players we might have to “settle” with.
If the Twins cant get what they want, as in Cano from the Yanks, Reyes or Wright from the Mets, Kemp from the Dodgers, DONT DO THE DEAL!
You say we cant expect players like that? I agree, but then DONT DO THE DEAL! Only do the deal if we get somethign we cant turn down. Why should we settle at this point. AS bad as the TWins brass has mucked it up so far, if they settle, I will be really irked.
JPJ,
My point exactly. Don’t move Santana unless bowled over. Personally, I keep Santana. 3-4 top prospects is not too much to expect. They are “prospects”, not MLB all-stars. Chances are predominant that 2-3 either do not arrive in the bigs or have a negligible impact. An A-ball pitcher is still an A-ball pitcher regardless of credentials. LaRoche at 24 is no longer a youngster. Were the Dodgers that enamored they would not be coveting Cabrera et. al.It’s sad many people do not realize the talent they have in Santana.
DONT SETTLE!!!
Trade Boof for Baldelli and Slowey for Blalock.
If we can’t find a suitable deal for Santana, then resign him. We are only off with Santana resigning on number of years. Instead of 5 for 93 go 6 for 113 and add a mutual option on year 7 for 22 million. Add a 4 million buyout at any point for his no trade clause.
Joe, we appreciate the work. I think you’re right that it would be a PR nightmare to get anything but a boffo package, because why on earth would you? It does no good to trade the best pitcher in baseball for Coco Crisp and a couple Lew Fords.
Thanks Carl!!! I want a re-vote on that stadium. No chance it would get done now. Who’s next to go? Morneau - no dobut.
We the fan have no say, so it doesn’t matter. Besides, the Twins want face of the team to be Mauer anyway. I guess I’ll buy that crappy 30 game package, since that’s the most he ever plays in a season, and anticipate that usual called third strike in the clutch. Terrific! I hope Carl is happy with his gold plated wheelchair.
Joe C you are so wrong. There will be a bidding war for Santana. He is the best pitcher in baseball, lefthanded and durable. There will be a Yankee/Met bidding war at minimum. No doubt Boston will enter the mix at some point.
I’ll check back after the trade and we’ll see if you’re insiders are good sources.
Ed, the had Hennepin County been able to vote on the stadium in the first place, had the cowardly legislature not voted for a waiver, it would have gone down in flames then. That is why they wanted to waive the referendum - they knew it would lose.
It would go down even more now, and I would predict it would not pass the Hennepin County Board, not would the waiver pass.
Keeping Santana means we better sign him..
Alot of posts say KEEP SANTANA UNLESS WE ARE BLOWN AWAY BY A TRADE.
One post says “THEY ARE PROSPECTS, NOT MLB ALL STARS”
right, prospects.. Good Young Talented Prospects.. Which, i would much rather have on My team today. Then watch sananta walk and go to the yanks in the off season..
Only way Santana stays on the team is if we resign him soon..
else.. trade him.. for “PROSPECTS”
MH i agree with you that the only Santana is with the twins in 08 is if santana sings a longterm but i have a big gut fealling about 95% that he will be traded inthe end of the week or early next week by cutting 2 more players off of there 40 man roster i think it a good sing santana is traded to the yankes i’m beating that sometime friday Santana is traded
yeah Dan… I agree with you.. I think Santana will be dealt by friday or at the latest.. the end of the Winter meetings next week… I have a feeling by the end of next week… The Twins will have a semi- new Baseball Club… Hunter gone, Santana will be gone and I am thinking maybe like Bonser or another pitching prospect not garza though…. will be gone, maybe slowly…and maybe even Nathan might be dealt I have a feeling….
Another thing that I think is forgotten/overlooked…how much money do the Twins receive from revenue sharing!?!? (I admit I don’t know the actual figure…maybe someone can enlighten us)
Where is this money going?!? The Pohlad family’s pockets??
How in the world can we have the richest owner in baseball, additional money from revenue sharing, planned money coming in from the new stadium, and a mid market (not small!! thats false) revenue and still not be able to keep our star players BECAUSE OF MONEY!!?!?
Someone please help me out…I’m at a loss, and I just dont see any reason for to look forward to this team…(I’m in the market for a new team with an owner that cares - open to suggestions).
On mlbtraderumors: they posted 2 unfounded rumors… One is Bonser to TB and the other is Morneau to Angels for Casey Kotchman and Ervin Santana…
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/
i think joe nathan will aslso be traded and pat will be the closer it might not happen at the winter meatings
Did anyone else see this junk by Sansevere over at Pioneer Press?
http://www.twincities.com/sansevere/ci_7566304?nclick_check=1
I for one am glad we can get realistic Twins coverage over here from Joe and LEN3.
Craig was owned by Trade Mauer Guy,
Will you still honour our bet on changing your name if Santana is traded?
KrazyK,
I saw that, incredibly funny, painfully funny even. Paging Mr. Sansevere, Carlos isn’t on the team anymore.
Even if Silva were on the team, what he wrote is nothing short of ridiculous. Even the most ridiculous comments on these blogs pale in comparison.
Trade Mauer Guy Was Owned By Craig,
A deal is a deal. It isn’t looking good for old Craig, but the fat lady has yet to sing.
This isn’t that hard lets get it done.
It takes two to trade.
What would you think if a Yankees fan came in with: “C’mon, trade Chamberlain for Morneau, it’s not that hard.”
No one is complaining about all the rampant speculation we’re getting from the “Around the Majors” blog now, but when I asked for it during the WS I was told “this is the Around the Majors blog, blah blah blah.”
Pick a story and stick with it Torii…I mean Joe. C.
That Sansevere article was terrible. Why would they trade Paplebon for Nathan. Pointless. He is an idiot.
An agreement to trade Santana for three players has been reached but not yet disclosed.
I’d love ot know how the Morneau to the Angels trade got started..
Ive mentioned it before.. that Morneau Will get traded.. UNLESS we lock him up for 7, 8, 9 , 10 years…
but, morneau to the angels for kotchman and santana? please.. if cabrera can bring a larger return then santana.. morneau could bring a damn bounty in return.. i dont want kotchman and santana.. thats crap
im surprised this has not been mentioned yet as well.
at the trade deadline the twins cut salary by making trades… we didnt save much.. probably somewhere between 4-6mil.. but why would we cut salary if it those salary cuts dont allow us to sign our free agents..
we could have traded for GOMES/BALDELLI/WHOEVER at the all star break last year.. sure we would have added salary but we were in the PLAYOFF RACE!..
thus im saying this.. MANAGEMENT SCREWED THIS ONE UP BAD.
THEY KNEW they were losing Hunter, Probably Santana, and maybe Nathan..
And they didnt trade prospects to try and make one last run at it..
pathetic
its as Reusse said this morning on radio, all these trade rumors now, including Santana are just CRAP. Have talks taken place? Of course, but all the names are pure crap, speculation.
The Yanks wooulnd even part with Chamberlain for Santana, leave alone Cano.
And if the Twins cant get a BOFFO deal, dont trade, AND sign him. DO it Carl, you cheapskate? Do something so some people remember you fondly on your funeral.
the santana trade will end up being Cano, Jackson, Eric Duncan, and kennedy..
twins couldnt say no to this package..
a star 2b, a top line outfield prospect.. a dang good pitching prospect.. as well as a 3b..
I don’t believe the rumor, but there was a salary breakdown on some website about the trade where it would actually mihgt make sense for the Twins. Morneau, long term deal or no deal, is going to get expensive through arbitration.
Over 3-5 years it would free up a lot of money, maybe for J Santana?
I don’t believe the rumor, don’t like the deal, but when you look at the money it’s not as bad a deal as you might think at first.
I’m so sick of this small market brainwash, and that everybody seems to except it. Memo to the Pohlads (Carl or Jim or whoever runs this so called organization) If you cant except the todays going market for players saleries, GET OUT OF THE BUISNESS!
SELL THE TEAM!
MH, I hope you’re right. That trade would be awesome for both sides. And with Hank Steinbrenner (the new BOSS) wanting to win at all costs, that’s a deal I could see happening.
As for Morneau, the Twins would be wise to sign him long-term and build their entire team around him, Mauer and the crop of young pitchers. We would be competitive and have a better chance of winning it in 2010 when the park opens.
Remember, we have another Yohann in the minors who could very well be the #1 starter in 3M Kirby Puckett Park in a couple years.
here is my view thus far of the johan possible trade destinations
Johan to the Yanks - I mentioned about who i think we will get.. one star, a decent pitcher and some hitting prospects
- I can see this happening
Johan to the Redsox - Have to get ellsbury
so Ellsbury, lester, some minor league hittin prospects
- I dont forsee this happening
Johan to the Dodgers - Kemp, Laroche kershaw? Thats to many blue chips for Johan.
- I dont see this happening
Johan to the Mets - NO CHANCE, unless the mets part with Reyes
thus it would be Johan/Barlett for Reyes/Gomez or Reyes/Milledge and a pitching prospect(probably a AA guy)
- I dont see this happening
Johan to the Angels - They have the talent. Would have to get some hitters.. But i dont want to be watching the Los Angeles Angels of Minnesota..
- I cant see this happening
The twins are in either a Great Position or a Terrible Position..
Florida was smart when they didnt want to pay players.. they traded them for prospects…
With players like Torii, Johan, Nathan the twins had the opportunity to turn them all into good prospects.. now with Torii gone they lost out on a couple prospects ( did get a couple draft picks)
But Johan and Nathan have to be turned into Talented prospects.. hopefully even some AA and A ball players to restock our farm systems… We have pitching down there.. but i think a Top line bat and 3 prospects would be just fine
Boycott the new stadium if they trade Santana!!!
Why boycott the new stadium? If you are upset don’t go to games this year and if you are that upset you better not be watching on TV either because the Twins get money from that. Did I mention you shouldn’t buy the paper since the Twins advertise their. And oh yeah those jerseys and hats you buy, that money goes to the team also.
The Twins should not trade Santana for MORE pitchers. Maybe take one pitcher in a deal to the Yanks, but make the rest Cano and other hitting prospects. E.g. Kennedy/Cano/Tabata. If we do get too many pitchers or prospects that aren’t currently ready or a year or so away, turn them around as another chip to get a third basemen or a young center field prospect we really want. What the Mets want is crap, and should only do it when they decide to give up Wright or Reyes. Santana/Buscher for Wright and one of their 2nd or 3rd best outfield prospect.
Either way, the Santana trade should aim for offensive upgrades that can help now.
With any luck Santana, Nathan, Bonser, De Paula and Casilla will all be traded for some quality position players by December 6th to occupy 2B, CF, and 3B.
The Angels have been very aggressive this off-season. A major league pitcher, Reggie Willits, and a pitching prospect, might get them Johan.
The Twins should not trade Santana for MORE pitchers.
Check out LEN3’s newest entry and suddenly the “trade Santana for a pitcher” thing may start to make some sense…
The Twins are in a real bind. They need a third baseman, a second baseman, and a center fielder. They don’t have much of anything to give up besides Santana and no major league team has those three positions with quality players that they are willing to trade.
I would ask Boston for Ellsbury and their best left handed pitching prospect. I would ask the Yankess for Cano and their best pitching prospect. After all, Santana is not chopped liver! If they don’t want to trade they take the deal to the National League for the best offer.
Getting Cano and a reasonably good pitching prospect would be satisfactory since Cano is a much better average hitter than most. At least the Twins would be getting something to build a strong team with for the future. The Twins should realize that their greatest weakness is second base. They are in denial about it, because they are stuck with Casilla and Punto.
I see Punto as the Twins utility infielder. Hopefully, offering Santana and Nathan can fill the 3rd, 2nd base & centerfield voids.
There are two scenarios in play:
#1: Team “A” wants Santana for 2008, period.
What is one year of Santana worth in trade value? Hint: you’re not going to get a current MLB starting position player with multiple years remaining on his contract or someone who’s considered “top of the rotation ready” & under contract for multiple years.
Put another way - assume [1] you have a healthy Francisco Liriano on your roster; [2] the Twins are offering you Santana (with his current contract situation) for Liriano; and [3] you’re not going to be in the market for either a Santana extension or free agent contract.
Would anyone here send a Liriano to the Twins to get Santana for a year?
#2: Team “A” is willing to trade for Santana now, IF he’ll sign an extension.
OK, what is team “A” negotiating for?
> having Santana in 2008;
> certainty of him being with them after 2008;
> any savings they realize from negotiating an extension vs. having to win an auction to have Santana after 2008.
How much is THAT worth? Wouldn’t a team whose primary goal is having Santana for the period after 2008 simply step back & wait for free agency if it decides the Twins want too much in trade?
IMO, very little of fan discussion of a Santana (at least, on the Twins end) pays more than lip service to the impact of his contract status on the Twins bargaining position. In general, Twins fans seem to be operating under the illusion that it will have ZERO impact on the value we’re offered.
IMO, the only way we wind up with what we’d consider “fair value” is if both the Yankees and the Red Sox believe the other WILL get him if THEY don’t make the deal - those two will “over offer” just to keep someone like Santana away from the other.
If only one of them is ultimately interested, I fear we’re going to get hosed.
i just read that the redsox want to push coco crisp on us rather than ellsbury.that is one insulting offer.how stupid do they think twin’s management is?
bob:
Oh, I dunno - Crisp for a box of balls & a couple of Dome Dogs would work …
But I agree - keep saying “Ellsbury”.
Bon Dia!
Twins fans,
Price for Pedro Martinez = Carl Pavano and Tony Armas Jr. Pedro was younger and significantly better than Johan Santana. You are wishing for too much and is a pipe dream. You are not going to get Ellsbury, Buchholz, Chamberlin, Cano, Wright (maybe chase but not david), Reyes. Why would a team give away their top talents at reasonable cost for the next 5 years for good ace (sorry, he doesn’t belong in the Pedro, Clemens, Maddux league) that will cost 20m/year?
The Minnesota Twins could have a good young lead-off hitting center fielder for the next 10 years or more if they would accept the Red Sox offer of Jacoby Ellsbury. I think they will wait too long and get nothing in return. I think the Twins are making a big mistake. They could build the team around Ellsbury, who adds alot of defense and speed, not to mention the ability to get hits.
I have to give new GN Smith only a grade of D+ thus far for improving the Twins team.
