Last month, I wrote that the New York Mets were not to be taken seriously in the Johan Santana sweepstakes. A person with knowledge of the negotiations told me that Mets owner Fred Wilpon was against the idea of signing any pitcher to the kind of contract extension Santana is seeking.

A turning point came when Wilpon gave the green light to GM Omar Minaya. If Minaya swings the trade, as I wrote about today, Wilpon is confident he’ll get Santana signed. In the Mets’ camp, there is a belief that the price for Santana won’t be quite as high as advertised. Santana might ask for a six-year, $150 million extension, but there’s a belief teams could negotiate down from there.

I think that’s correct, but I don’t think it’s as simple as Hank Steinbrenner is making it sound. Earlier this week, he told Newsday: “I wouldn’t do it if it were a six- or seven-year contract. I wouldn’t go past five, on an extension.”

Perhaps the Yankees would try to entice Santana with five-year, $125 million offer — matching Santana’s yearly asking price but saving themselves one year. Maybe Santana would take that, although the Twins were left to believe he was very serious about holding a seven-year deal. He has one year remaining on his current contract and wants six more.

I think it’s a mistake for these teams to believe Santana’s price is coming down. And I think it’s a mistake to assume the Yankees wouldn’t give him a six-year extension. Keep in mind, Hank also said the Yankees absolutely wouldn’t have Alex Rodriguez back after he opted out of his contract. Until they did.

The Yankees said they absolutely wouldn’t give Jorge Posada a four-year deal. Until they did. And during the winter meetings, Hank said the Yankees absolutely, positively were pulling out of the Santana sweepstakes when the Twins didn’t meet their deadline.

Five weeks later, here we are.

This entry was posted on Thursday, January 10th, 2008 at 10:07 am and is filed under Around MLB, Twins thoughts. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.