A Nathan update … and LeCroy too
Posted on February 12th, 2008 – 8:12 PMBy Joe Christensen
Joe Nathan got to know Livan Hernandez while pitching for the Giants in 2002 and 2003. They played golf together a few times.
“I think he’ll fit right in with our team,” Nathan said of Hernandez. “I’ve always said it’s an easy team to come to and fit in.”
“He’s pitched in all the big games you can pitch in,” Nathan added. “He’s a guy who can throw any pitch at any time, and he will. He doesn’t give in to hitters.”
As for his own contract situation, Nathan remained optimistic. His agent has outlined what it would take to keep him in Minnesota and they’re waiting to hear back from the Twins.
I also spoke to Matthew LeCroy, who caught Hernandez with the Washington Nationals in 2006.
“On the outside, you think he’s non-chalant,” LeCroy said. “But if you watch him in practice, you can see what a competitor he is. He’s probably got the best hands of any shortstop or infielder in camp. Once you get on the field with him, he can do some pretty amazing things.”
Nathan and LeCroy both noted Hernandez’s hitting prowess, a skill that will go largely wasted in the American League. A .232 career hitter with nine career home runs, Hernandez won the NL Silver Slugger in 2004.
Home in South Carolina after being let go by the Twins, LeCroy said he’s still looking for a team. He’s not ready to hang it up. “This is the best I’ve probably felt in four or five years,” he said.
165 Responses to "A Nathan update … and LeCroy too"
Regarding improvements to the design of the stadium, “The team wanted more women’s restrooms and concession stands, and a high-definition scoreboard that will measure 102 feet long and 57 feet high.”
How about either 56 or 58 feet high, please. Thanx.
How about singing Lecroy for about $2mill
Livan to the Red Sox for Coco Crisp!
Coco, I assume you are joking.
Its going to take to a lot of convincing for a team to sign Lecroy. The Twins should just give him a coaching job someplace.
Good Twins signing in Hernandez. Sounds alot like Silva–but cheaper and possibly good trade bait in July if we’re out of it. As far as LeCroy, it is time for Sammy Softball to get in the coaching ranks with the Twins at some leve. Good guy, but no pop left in his bat.
North Nickel
I agree with everything you say.
Watch knowing the Twins there next move will be to sign Josh Fogg.
I really hope Josh Fogg isn’t in the Twins’ future plans. I guess “The Dragon Slayer” couldn’t make anything of his new-found nickname and reputation.
El Duque’s brother, right? “Gamer” compared him to Pontoon and Silva. “Killer” compared his salary to Johan’s. I compared his homers allowed to Johan’s. They both led the league. Pretty good company to be in, but the AL has the DH, so it won’t get any easier. He also led in hits allowed, so playing in the HomerDome ought to be interesting. We lead the league in picking up bargain players.
as long as the next move isn’t to resign lecroy I’ll be happy
i hope lecroy gives up ideas of playing and maybe they can bring him along in some coaching capacity..i think hes a good guy to have around..just dont need him at or behind the plate anymore….
again…great signing today…thanks bs
i hope this works out very well and i think it will..and the kids will benefit from Hernandez….i want to go to fort meyers… anyone else??
Dan; youre an idiot
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Sign Barry Bonds as a beer vender.
Vendor is spelled with an O.
MARK:
That wouldn’t look too good for a ball player to be selling beer. Maybe he could peddle “juice”.
Another pinch hitter for Punto now available. I’m guessing Livan is a better bunter, too.
mj1 - I don’t just want to go there, I want to live there. . . If only my wife could leave her mother… LOL.
I read in the last blog someone who thinks that Punto will bat .289, and that the Twins are going to win 94 games, and other people who think the Twins will win 84 games.
I wish I was capable of being that optimistic.
What you guys can come up with naturally I would need a lot of over the counter medication to come up with.
Baker 12-12 13-9
Liriano 10-6 14-6
Hernandez 10-14 13-13
Bonser 12-15 15-12
Slowey 12-9 14-7
Likely vs my wildest imagination with this team which would put this team between 64 wins (bullpen accounts for some) and 79 wins
I love the signing of Livan. I still say this pushes my initial 68 win total to 70 wins.
Minus an ace, minus the number 2, minus the number 3 from last year… with only one pitcher on the staff if 100% capable of being as good as any of those three pitchers, and being a huge IF IF IF IF IF, I just can’t be that optimistic.
I see the team scoring between 100-175 more runs than last year which will make it more fun (and I swear if they get shut out that many times in 2008 that Joe Vavra should be fired, and forced to clean the toilets at the Dome as restitution!…
The problem is that the pitching staff gives up between 162-300 runs more than it did last year. I think they could seriously be fun to watch, and lose a lot of games 8-5.
How funny you can spend 20 million to upgrade the stadium but can not keep their players!
I knew it…I knew it! The moment I read the article.
Situation A: People complain that Pohald is building a stadium with other people’s money. Cheap jerk!
Situation B: People complain that Pohlad is using his own money to build a stadium instead of paying players. Cheap jerk!
If that isn’t a fine exmaple of “Darned if you do, darned if you don’t” I don’t know what is.
T pleze leave. youve been unmasked long ago. now go punch in at the twins office before carl deducts your pay even more.
TWINSD
Who do you think the Twins should have kept? Hunter’s contract is ridiculous, Silva’s contract is ridiculous, and Santana didn’t want to play here anymore. I guess they could have kept Lew Ford and Jason Tyner but other than that I don’t know who you would have kept.
Hi yup, welcome to the Strib. Just a heads up, I’ve heard that “comeback” before.
I know it’s the rally cry of the average Striber to immediately accuse anybody they disagree with of being on the Twins payroll, but you’ll eventually come up with an opinion of your own if you keep trying.
Better luck with that whole “independant thought” thing next time.
And as far as payroll, $20M doesn’t really help anybody. It’s a year of Santana (at the end of his contract, 6 years from now…IF he accepts the $20M/yr offer). It’s a few years of Hunter (again at the END of the contract). Livan signed for cheaper than Silva and is the same thing (Twins don’t need N+1 Redundancy when it comes to innings eaters).
Aaron Rowand? Maybe. But that’s not “keeping”.
jama brings up a good point, aside from Santana, Hunter and Silva (2 of which didn’t want to be here anymore and one that was Gil Meche money)…it’s Ford, Rodriquez, Tyner, and…Tiffee?
Not exactly prime pickings. I wouldn’t have wanted to see the Twins waste payroll on those guys for the sake of spending money.
Now that they are spending some money, I hope they go out and sign a veteran center fielder like Kenny Lofton. What a great player he once was. He’d be a great mentor to Gomez. Move now.
I didn’t really like the prospect of signing a stop gap at CF but I have changed my mind a little. I think Lofton would be a good fit if he doesn’t want a lot of money. As dentist points out he could mentor the young players (Gomes, Pridie, Span, and Young) along with adding some more veteran leadership. Plus if he is performing at all the Twins can trade him before the deadline. It would basically be an insurance policy.
*Gomez
I like that the Twins got Livan for a one year deal.
Two months ago, the thought of a team signing him for one year and 5 mil seemed unheard of… with Silva getting 4 and 48
How many mentors should the Twins keep on their roster?
Could we keep a couple of players also?
Let Pridie and Gomez battle it out in spring for the starting spot and have the other as the fourth outfield. IMO Gomez will win the job and probably bat around 260 or 270 this year which isn’t bad for 22 yr old. Also you will get at least 25 to 30 stolen bases out of him which will help.
Also Why not sign LH he is a League Championship and Worlds Series MVP, so Obviously the Guy can Pitch, and for 5 mil its a steal if he has a good yr
Joe:
I thought the Twins had 40 players on their roster. Did they have to take a player off it to make room for Hernandez?
Shawn
I just don’t think that Gomez is ready for ML pitching. The Mets pushed him throught their system when he wasn’t ready. I think you sign Lofton and let him and Pridie battle for the spot. If Pridie beats him out then so be it. You can then cut Monroe and Lofton is your 4th OF. The only problem with sending Gomez down to AAA is that I’m not sure the Twins will help him improve. They haven’t exactly been an organization known for improving prospects hitting.
Jama,
I know he was pushed, but I think that little bit of experience helped him and he will win the job out of ST. Sorry Jama I just don’t like loften at all. I don’t think he would fit in with the Twins at all, there has to be a reason he has played with SO many teams. IMO its because he is a bad teammate
I think there’s about a 10% chance the Twins go after Lofton. I don’t think they need to, either. I’d just as soon see a youngster in CF, and Gomez better be the one that steps up and owns it.
Lee,
The Twins list 41 names on their website roster.
It is possible that Jose Mijares was put on DL after his auto crash.
BC, you have consistently posted 68 wins for the Twins this year.
I’ll take the over right now on that number.
Twenty bucks? Deal?
USAF
Do you have a win total in mind for this season?
I’m going with between 70-72. They won’t loose 100 games but they might lose 90.
I think the will be 500 at the end of the season. I hate to say this But our OFFENSE yes I said OFFENSE will keep us in most games.
USAFChief. I don’t gamble. I have friends that head to Vegas every chance they get, and bet sports, and an aunt that is bleeding my uncle dry with her addiction to Morton and Mystic…
But if I change my mind… you’re on, and it would be a bet I’d like to lose because I like the Twins winning more than I like money. I just don’t ask my 8 year old to do my taxes, and I don’t expect inexperienced pitchers to deliver like seasoned professionals.
T-
Not many people agree with me, and no one has accused me of working for the Twins.
I’v never accused you of being on the payroll, and while you and I agree that the Hernandez signing was good, we don’t agree on a lot of things… you tend to side with the Twins managment an aweful lot, and I’ve read your comment’s you are a smart well informed man… you should see it coming.
The owner of every company is always going to be the bad guy, and the people that stickup for management are never going to be the popular people in the office. Newton died before he could get Newton’s law of business written, but I think this would be close.
try not to let it bother you. At least they aren’t stealing your identity and running and creating fake accounts to try and sabbotage you!
Thanks for the vote of confidence BC. I do enjoy how people who can adamantly disagree with each other in one blog can step into a different topic and find themselves on the same side. Makes for fun conversations and great exchange of ideas.
And while I side with Twins management, it’s more because I hate to see the blame getting put where it doesn’t belong. Case in point, blaming Gardy for Punto last season as opposed to putting the blame on Ryan for not helping him get a better 3B sooner.
Or blaming the Castillo trade for the 07 season as opposed to the sheer misfortune of a bunch of career years being followed by equally career lows.
Also, I love the exchange of ideas and discussion. But I hate to see the discussions cycle back to the same one or two topics everytime some new news comes along.
But while I may see the reasoning for a certain move/decision, it doesn’t mean I liked the move/decision…or enjoyed it’s outcome.
Case in point. I fully understand why the Santana situation played out like it did. But in no way does that mean I liked that it had to be done. Especially when I just had gotten the money together to go out and buy one of those McFarlane Santana figures that I was finally able to track down at a hobby store.
I think the Twins are done signing players. My guess is that they will go into ST with what they have.
P.S.
I think we will win 80-84 games.
I think the Twins will hover around .500 for most of the season and
actually be in the Wild Card mix before reality sinks in around the All Star break. Livan was a good signing because he will eat innings and if he does O.K. we can spin him to a contender for a prospect. I agree with Jama or whoever said “which of the guys would you have kept. Santana, Hunter and Silva all have crazy contracts. (some more crazy than others).
Gomez hits .299 the month of june 07.
.299 must be a bad BA.
The thing with Hernandez is he was signed to eat innings and keep pressure off the young guys and bullpen.
If the team starts struggling later in the season, part of that likely will be the staff showing some wear. And that’s when they’ll need Hernandez to step in more than ever.
Basically, I wouldn’t considering a trade unless he’s getting in the way of a youngster or if he can bring in a decent return (somebody that could have an impact in 09/10).
The only thing “bad” about .299 is that it’s not a nice round .300 for the bubblegum card.
T
I think the Twins rotation could handle the month of August without Livan if he is traded. Come September then you can call up the other young arms to help with the wear and tear.
Clemens is getting dismantled at the hearings today. If he is not charged with perjury I would be absolutely shocked.
Dean
Gomez hit .299 in June but you forgot to put the other 3 months averages up.
May- .172
July- .167
September- .118
The AB’s in June are fairly equal to the total AB’s in the other 3 months combined. He got hot in June and was horrible the other 3 months.
Then he broke his hamet bone which takes a while to come back from
Jama
My personal over/under on the Twins this season is 80 wins.
I could see a scenario where they win 90. I could see a scenario where they win 70.
I think 68 is pretty low. There is more talent on this team than 68 wins. The starting pitching looks thin, I agree, but there are options for the inevitable failures/injuries. The offense to me looks to be much better than last year. I would not be surprised by something like 780 runs. That would be enough to hover around .500.
With extra cash around, we could offer Hernandez at the deadline AND pick up his salary.
This could allow us to possibly snag a pretty good prospect from a mid to low market team- if so it is like buying a prospect and getting a half of a season of Livan…
I guess you are more optimistic than I am USAF. I think the only way they win 90 games is if there are a lot of injuries in the AL and especially in the AL Central. I am going to stick with my 70-72 win guess.
with livan eating innings maybe we should pick up david wells to eat the food before boffet gets to the table or he’ll gain the 20# back before june. could have a fat team by fall, how many calories in an inning?
Shawn
Good point about the broken bone after June but what about his May average how do you describe that?
T-
The entire team having a down year was the number 1 reason why the twins didn’t win last year, but they still had “hope” until the Twins traded away Castillo last year. Had they found a way to pull off a deal for Wiggington or another 3rd baseman they might have had that surge, but it’s speculation on my part.
As for the Punto comments… I’m not afraid to throw someone under a bus as I’ve already said. Punto was terrible last year, and Gardy has come out and said how much he likes Punto. Do you think that Gardy went to Ryan and said, I love Punto but get me a 3rd baseman that can play the game the right way (competently)? I spent years hiring, and training employees for various companies, and judging people in interviews. I’m not perfect by any means, but I seriously doubt that Gardy threw Punto under the bus. Gardy is loyal to a fault, and it is Gardy’s fault that Punto kept getting those at bats because almost any other team in baseball would have done just about anything including putting Cuddyer in at 3rd base for a few games, but this is yesterday’s news, and we have all the fun in the world starting next week.
By the way is anyone listening to, or watching the Clemens debacle? Odds are that both Clemens and that MacNamee guy are going to jail!
I don’t think Gomez is the CF on opening day, he’s just not ready for MLB pitching, I think they give the Pridie guy the shot first.
A 22 year old can’t start out slowly? The teams in june were NYY,Twins,LAD,Tigers,OAK,PHI. Those are not bad teams.
It’s Tori Who!!
A personal pet peeve of mine:
Can we get to the point on this board where we at least recognize that:
1) “a .299 batting average” tells you almost nothing about a player? Someone who hits .299 with a .330 OBP and .350 SLG is a bad hitter, but someone who hits .299 with a .370 OBP and a .520 SLG is a very good hitter.
and
2) Saying someone ‘hit .299 in June’ is virtually worthless in assessing his value. One month’s worth of ABs isn’t enough to show anything.
USAF - thankyou!! I was trying to point out the same thing yesterday. Fact is gomez hit like .232 or something for the whole year was not even above .300 for OBP, and barely above .300 slugging, not reminiscent of a hitter ready for the bigs…
Jama
May was his first month in the majors it takes time to learn the pitching come june he learned and hit 299 before breaking that bone.
Livan is a great signing. He will be a stabilizing part of the rotation that would allow the youngsters to break in slowly. As far as comparisons with previous Twins’ pitchers (Silva, Ponson, Ortiz) made recently go, here are Livan’s Similar pitchers list from baseball reference:
Similar Pitchers through Age 32:
1. Mike Moore (950)
2. Darryl Kile (946)
3. Brad Radke (943)
4. Jim Clancy (940)
5. Andy Benes (938)
6. Scott Erickson (938)
7. Mark Gubicza (934)
8. Mike McCormick (923)
9. Stan Bahnsen (921)
10. Ray Sadecki (918)
So it looks like Livan is at least a class or 2 above Silva and light years above Ponson and Ortiz… (interesting to see 3 x-Twins in that list 
)
Dean
I wish I could be as opptimistic as you are man.
There just is no way that I could just do that.
Gomez had one good month, Kubel had two good months…
The whole thing is that when we base our judgements on just the positive we probably live happier lives until August when we can’t figure out why this team we predicted to win 94 games is 17 games under .500
Gomez .259 with a .303 ob% and 20/5/8 with 40 RBI and 35 steals
I saw your predictions yesterday, and I had to go to MLB.com and look through the history of all of those players, and to think that every single one of those players was going to be 20-30% better than they were the year before was almost religious in how ROSEY of a view.
I wish I could do that, but I live in a real world where talent and experience win, and the twins are mediocre in one, and VERY LOW in the other… 94 wins is incredible!
But this team has a 38% chance of losing 100 games, and an 9% chance of winning 94 games if we go by the recent performances of the players, and the young players in general coming through.
I’m no scientist, but wow… you make me want to gamble.
[…] Joe Nathan’s Status Still Up in the Air Posted on February 13th, 2008 by Old Navy King UPDATE: (2/13) 12:05pm (EST) - As per Joe Christensen of the Star Tribune, Nathan’s agent has told the club what it would take to keep him in Minnesota, and they are waiting to hear back about it. Nathan remains optomistic a deal can be reached. […]
A single + SB does not show in SLG.
None of last years stats actually measure Gomez’s readiness to become an MLB hitter this year.
If he learns how to hit the slider this spring, the sky is the limit.
If he doesn’t hit the slider, but does hit the fast ball, he will seldom see a fast ball.
If his hitting suffers so badly that he stops hitting the fast ball, then pitchers will stop wasting sliders on him and get him out with all their pitches.
When he learns to hit the slider ALL his stats will take off.
Dean
Runs scored, runs batted in, and BA, and OB% and SLG% are all good indicators… SBs happen when a player gets on base.
Gomez has not shown a pension for getting on base, and you use one good month with how many at bats to make your decisions?
because it shouldn’t, and for your info. Gomez had 29 hits the entire year for the mets, 24 of them were singles, and he had 12 stolen bases, as you know slugging % is total bases/AB, his slugging was .304, if you add the steals as doubles it increases to a whopping .400, that still isn’t something to write home about… I just don’t in any way see your reason for optimism with Gomez Dean…. I actually hope you prove to be right, but the evidence is NOT there to support what you believe will happen.
You are all using stats which can not factor in Gomez’s ability to learn how to hit the breaking ball (sliders in particular).
What stat measures ABILITY TO LEARN that skill? - NONE!!!!
Dean: stolen bases can be a nice add-on skill for a player. As can overall baserunning ability.
When you can steal first base, or drive in a runner from first with a stolen base, then I’ll start to pay more attention to stolen base totals as a primary skill for a hitter.
Sane/Dean,
Carlos Gomez’s avg’s every year in the minors
Year, League, Games, AVG, OBP:
2005, A, 120, .275, .331
2006, AA, 120, .281, .349
2007, A, 5, .154, .267
2007, AAA, 36, .286, .363
2007, MLB, 58, .232, .288
these stats demonstrate to me that he is NOT an above average hitter, wouldn’t you expect an ABOVE average hitter to bat above .300 in the minors? significantly above .300 in the minors for that matter? He hasn’t even demonstrated he is a ‘good’ hitter in the minors, why all the sudden do you expect the light to go on and him to ‘get it’, and all the sudden post a career high for average in the MAJORS? there is zero, zip, zilch logic behind that argument.
anyway, from those numbers, what makes you think he has the ability to ‘learn’ to hit a slider? They do throw those in the minors you know
Hunter’s 1st 4 years obp
.316,.309,.318,306
the Twins should have trashed him then!
Sane, I would agree that no stat measures Gomez’ ability to learn.
I would, however, argue that what he needs to learn is to stop swinging at balls outside the strike zone, rather than “learn to hit a slider.”
And I would further argue that no matter what it is he needs to learn, when/if he does learn it, it’ll then be reflected in plenty of stats. We won’t need to guess if he’s learned it.
Dean.
If I would have had my way. YEAH! They should have pulled the plug after 5 years and one adequate year, but he was dirt cheap.
Torii Hunter was never a good hitter until he credited learning some things from Joe Mauer.
Funny, not Ulger, or Vavra.
okay Dean,
so it took at least 4 years for Hunter to become a ‘decent’ hitter.
Do you see gomez as EVER being a better hitter than Hunter? and it happening THIS YEAR for that matter?(because thats how you’re saying Gomez will be this year) I Don’t. You’re only hurting your argument by including that information
Chief,
Balls outside the stike zone were usually sliders in his case. Most hitters don’t have problems with fastballs outside the zone.
I am in absolute total agreement with your final paragraph.
Chief…
Amen man. that was excellent.
As regards Livan Hernandez: Look at it this way: He only won four fewer games (11) than Santana did last year.
Now, Twins need to sign Corey Patterson in center to give Gomez a year of seasoning.
Ill season you Kevin
Kevin,
It may not be necessary, but the Patterson signing would complete the puzzle for now.
I’m not sure how relavant this is, but in about 65 / 66 one of our coaches was a lefthanded pitcher. He was pretty good. Drafted by MLB but went to Alaska to work on the pipeline for more money. I bat LHed. I was 13 or 14 yrs old. He taught me to hit his curve by standing me in the box, telling me the ball would look like it was going to hit me in the face and then buckling my knees about 50 times. We’re talking about An 80 MPH ball here. I finally got to the point where I could overcome my fear and recognize the spin. (I could see a lot better back then.) It got to the point where I feasted on LHed teenagers hooks. I’ve gotta believe that pro ball coaches have a clue about this stuff. It’s worrisome that after the time Gomez has spent gettin paid for BB he has not conquered this yet.
Paul,
Hitting curveballs is much easier than hitting sliders.
Sliders have the same trajectory (path) as a fastball and slightly less velocity.
Slider rotation is different from a fastball but it is not easy to recognize in the time you have to react.
Curve balls have a more humped trajectory and are slow enough so that a batter can adjust after looking for a fastball.
Bottom line - RECOGNIZING AND HITTING MLB SLIDERS IS DIFFICULT.
Paul.
I had a couple of coaches who did the same thing.
They were paid about zero dollars to do it.
One was a former minor leaguer for the Dodgers… played with Campy, and caught Drysdale, and Koufax in the minors. How awesome is that?
I just agree with the Twins, Gomez’s upside “could be” very high.
BC,
Campy. Maybe the best of all time. My favorite. Did you know that, even in his prime, he worked in a liquor store in the off season to make ends meet? I’d love to talk to someone that knew the guys you refered to.
and its finally said/admitted - Gomez is ‘upside’ or ‘potential’ that he hasn’t yet reached, and I don’t think this is the year he would do it like you are estimating he will, because he hasn’t even had a year in the minors one could consider a ‘breakout’ year as far as batting is concerned.
Sane.
The point is recognizing the spin of the ball. A slider has more of a side spin on the ball, a curve ball an over pronounced angular spin kind of diagonal, and a fast ball, sinker, and split finger fastball/forkball have a down bite to them.
Not everyone has good enough eyes to see that, but MLB batters not only should, but they have unlimited resouces to learn these things.
I read where Wade Boggs would have pitches come in and he wouldn’t even hold a bat… he would just name the pitches and say inside, outside, strike, or not. He would do this for hundreds of pitches a day during the off season. When he had his couple of bad seasons he found he needed glasses because his eye sight had gone a bit off, and they did the procedure, and he was back over 300 as a hitter again.
So now you can do this all computer simulated, and go to the Nike center and all sorts of different places to become better.
Ball players who have access to this which is all of them… that don’t take advantage of these institutions and ideas… are deserving of failure.
I have stated it about a hundred times in these blogs… the Twins philosophy to hitting as an organization is terrible, and needs to be changed.
If Joe Vavra is qualified to be a major league hitting instructor so are you and I! The whole team needs to be reshaped as hitters.
The great teams can work pitchers, and recognize pitches… The Red Sox, the Yankees especially…
The key to baseball is on base percentage… the more runners on base, the more the defense has to think, the more stress and the more pitches a pitcher has to pitch, and all of that common sense crap that the Twins don’t bother with.
They just keep getting guys like Hunter, and now Gomez who see the ball, and try to hit the ball. They don’t think while they are up at the plate.
Knobby was great at it, Carew was a GOD, Oliva superb… even that dufuss Dan Gladden will attest to what I’m saying… he knew how to work a pitcher, he just didn’t have much for talent, and is now even worse at his current job!
Kirby Puckett was a HOFer and his approach to hitting was horrible, using that as a model is stupid.
Molitor and Carew have both turned down jobs with the Twins, and I wonder if it has something to do with them being smart enough to know that the team philosophy was written in crayon by a dyslexic 5 year old?
Paul,
The coach I’m referring to was my post office mail guy for this town for 40 years. He got married, and became a dad… his two oldest sons were amazing pitchers, and one was a very good catcher on a town team level… not pro… and his youngest son whom I graduated with didn’t have quite the ability that his older brothers did, but he did hit a game winning home run in the playoffs my senior year so I learned more from that family about baseball than I ever did from my own.
I don’t know if it would be right of me to give out his name. I will ask his son the next time I talk to him, and see what they think…
Fair enough?
Dean, I think most people would agree with the Twins regarding Gomez’s ‘upside.’
He’s athletic, runs like the wind, is already a good defensive centerfielder, and has a body that suggests power should develop.
I think the disagreement centers around what the bottom end of his ‘downside’ looks like, and when/if we might start to see some of that upside.
Overlooked: Gomez hit .271 in 99 AB before busting his hand last year. Have Carew teach him to bunt.
I’ll take the Upside of Gomez, Now Today, than the “down side” of hunter.
not hard to have a good batting avg. (i don’t consider .271 good) with only 99 AB.
Its the same reason why early in the season there is always a bunch of guys flirting around .400.
BC,
I agree with you on the ball spin. I will add that a great pitcher can make the ball spin in virtually any direction, ala Madoux. Also fastballs can be thrown with the illussion of rising, ala Nolan.
Sane,
My understanding on the slider:
There’s a scale of velocity and spin. Goes fastball, cutter, slider slurve and curveball. All controlled with wrist position on release. Sinking fastball requires rotating the wrist opposite the slider from the fastball reference point. I don’t understand the forkball/split finger because my hands aren’t big enough and I have never seen it used close up in person.
BC, I didn’t mean to imply I wanted you to hook me up with this guy. But thank you for your consideration.
Kevin,
Missing information.
Was Gomez being thrown sliders when he hit—–? (fill in the number)
Or were the pitchers just not wasting sliders on him, because they thought they could get him out with fastballs.
I think (hope) that Gomez will be a good hitter, but he has prerequisite skills that have to be developed first.
Paul,
Your understanding is correct.
My point is that the slider is closer to the fastball on your scale which makes it more difficult for the hitter to differentiate between them.
Differentiating between curveball and fastball is much easier.
Sane’
Agreed 100%
since you guys are talking pitching, Slider and Curves are different yes, I play town ball and used to pitch, haven’t gotten on the mound in a few years because I was at school and had back problems from throwing, But I threw what I considered 5 pitches, but most of the time they probably looked like only 3, I was never that good. 4-Seamer, 2-Seamer, slider, curve, changeup. The only difference between my slider and curve was the oomph I put behind them. I held them both the same, but also had 3 different ways of putting my fingers on the seams, whatever way was giving me the best break that day I used. But by doing this the spin of the ball coming out of your hand, depending on the grip, makes it look different, and its harder for guys to pick up if the spin is not consistent. anyway, my point is, by doing this my slider had a 2-8 break and the curve went 12-6, torque of the wrist relative to the snap plays a large part in the look and break of a curve/slider in my experience.
.271 Gomez not very good hitter and can’t hit the curve
.271 hunter life time avg. (keep him at any cost)
Give him a chance!!
Keep,
The normal curveball is 2-8 like your slider.
Your curveball sounds like an overhand cuveball, which (don’t date yourself, sane) used to be called a drop.
The difference between curveball and slider is release.
Curve ball release is fingers cutting down in front of the ball.
Slider release is fingers cutting down on the outside of the ball.
Dean, Dean, Dean,
Can you honestly say, at this point in time that Gomez is a better hitting option than Hunter would be?
I’m not denying Gomez’s potential. But thats all he is right now, and that doesn’t add up to him having a season Better than any of Hunter’s as a twin and a career year in the MAJORS miles ahead of anything he’s done in the MINORS this year like i’ve read you think He’ll have.
Our major difference on this subject is you are an Uber-optimist (and thats fine, I like that about you, blind faith) and I’m a realist. I’m as big of a fan of the twins as everyone else here and want everyone to be spectacular and them to go 120-42. But thats not just gonna happen. Would I love to see gomez explode? Absolutely. But its just not gonna happen this year. 2010 I’d expect it if that ‘potential’ comes through, but not this year.
Keep,
Thanks for the input. I know in addition to different grips slight pressure diferences from the fingers affects spin. Pedro claims that his gift is extremely long fingers and an understanding of pressire effects.
Dean,
Don’t worry.
The Twins will give Gomez all the chances they can possibly give him.
They just traded Santana for him so they are “ALL IN!”.
Sane,
I understand that, but the only differences in my 2 pitches was the force I put behind them, now that probably made my release point and wrist angle different, but I wasn’t trying to do that. But I’ts probably different for everybody you know? There are so many variations on pitches these days (slider, slurve, curve, knucklecurve, etc…)
“The Twins will give Gomez all the chances they can possibly give him.”
True dat.
Whether it’s in Rochester this year, or Minneapolis, Gomez will be the everday centerfielder somewhere–as he should be.
I think it’ll be Rochester, but wherever it is, he’ll get enough ABs to reach whatever his actual ceiling is.
Keep,
I have pitched too. Would you please explain exactly how to throw a knucklecurve. I’ve always been curious about it but never learned. I guess there’s only so much a child can work with at one time.
3 days 21 hrs 4 min until we start the
162-0 process.
from what I understand and have seen, (mike mussina has the best knucklecurve i’ve read) its still with both fingers (index, middle) together and along a seam, but the ring and pinky fingers are tucked further ‘under’ the ball instead of the normal grip, and along with the wrist snap those tucked under fingers (ring, pinky) are fluttered outward, somehow this gives the ball the right to left(or left to right) break while giving the illusion of no rotation like a good knuckle… I could be wrong on this as well, so don’t quote me, but thats my understanding. I don’t have big enough hands to accomplish this so I can’t say I’ve tried it, but thats my understanding.
Paul,heres a link where they explain it if it helps:
Dean, I think you mean the 173-0 process!
they say its more of a tucking the index finger into the seam and flicking (or fluttering as I said before) it outward on release, but like I said, there are variations on every pitch and I’ve heard other ways…
Sorry Chief, your are right!
The key to the knuckleball is:
at the point of release, only the index and middle fingertips are touching the ball on the backside. (side away from homeplate)
That way no other fingers are applying pressure or friction which would cause the ball to spin.
peace out fellas, I’m done with work, was good talkin to ya’ll today…
Sane - knucklecurve is different from knuckleball.
My bad!
Careless reading on my part.
I described the knuckleball not knuckle curve.
more like knuckleheads i’d say!
how much time will mauer spend on the dl this year? over/under?
I’m out.
If I can’t read,
I should not be allowed to write.
The thing with Gomez is that he is the key peice to the Santana deal for us. I really think he’ll be given every oppurtunity to be the everyday CF. He’ll only lose the job if he scuffles for a month or more. He’ll be our opening day CF because the Twins know people want to see him, if he then struggles for a month he’ll be down in AAA til September.
Interesting debate today. Whaddya all say we give Gomez a chance before we pronounce him a terrible hitter who can’t hit a slider? I don’t care if his obp. is .250 in April if he’s with the big club. He’s gotta learn somehow. With a young player, you’re not looking for immediate results, you’re looking at improvement. Let the coaches evaluate him in the spring and see if they want to throw him or Pridie into the fire. Then have patience. Neither is exactly over the hill.
Some scouts rated Gomez higher than F-Mart.I can’t believe that some people think that he has reached his full potential at age 22.As stated,Carew and Molitor and Tony O can teach him alot at ST
Dean…
I’m seriously torn between being envious of your Homersota-mauer power kool-aid.
And on the flip side wondering if you are overdosing on the “happy” pills.
This team doesn’t have the talent nor the maturity to be a .500 team. It also has to play games against teams that have more talent almost every single game this year.
Baltimore, and Texas are the only two teams in the American League that are unequivacably worse than the Twins… The A’s, the Royals, the Blue Jays, the White Sox, and the Devil Rays are all on our level, and putting the Twins with the other teams not mentioned… is a laughable hallucination.
I said 68 wins before Livan Hernandez… I’m willing to go as high as 70 now.
Boneyard.
In reality I agree with you, but we are living in this fantasy land where the Twins are being projected to win 84-94 games.
So in order for the Twins to do that Gomez has to hit .290 with 10 homers, 30 doubles, and 50 steals.
The odds of that happening? BUY A LOTTERY TICKET!
Hi All,
Trying to catch up on all the posts today and saw some 90+ win predictions. I don’t think it will happen, but do 90 to 94 wins even mean a playoff spot in 2008? Probably not.
over on john sickels site he has some rankings (very subjective) of his 2000, 01 and 02 top 50 minor leaguers. kind of interesting to see how he did. one thing that sticks out is how many highly rated pitchers get hurt or bomb!!
Re: total wins. Lots of figures being guessed at here. I’m not going to guess, but I’ll point out our W/L and mean runs/game vs. Indians and Tigers (specific to ‘07 games against each other). Given that the Indians are the same team, the Tigers are MUCH better on paper, and while our offense is better on paper, our pitching is likely significantly worse (again, on paper), I suspect we’ll end up on the low end of projected wins in 2008 simply because we play so many games against the Indians and Tigers.
‘07 stats
Twins Indians/Tigers
10 w 26 w
3.56 r/g 4.75 r/g
While our run total should improve, so should theirs, leaving us losing nearly as many games in ‘08 vs. our key rivals as we did last year. Ugh.
But it’s baseball. Never know what can happen.
2010!!! 
Lamb - Junk, platoon player
Everett - Junk, terrible hitter
Livan - Junk, Fat, gives up tons of hits, HRs, has an OBP against of .371
Monroe - Junk, he hits a few homers, but other than that is an out machine
Santana - best pitcher in baseball
Hunter - best CF in baseball
Silva - Best donut eater in baseball
Looks like we got the shaft this offseason, doesn’t it?
Kinda a negative and pesemistic post, but it is what it is.
That said, I actually don’t mind the Livan signing. I am not expecting a heck of a lot from him though.
Geno: unless I missed a post, I don’t think anyone here said Gomez has “reached his full potential at age 22.”
yapper’s yapping. Hernandez’s numbers — adjusted for ballparks — are quite comparable to Silva’s. Check yesterday’s blog, yapper.
Everett has the best defensive “junk” in baseball at SS.
Lamb and Monroe don’t excite, but probably will be great bench players for a few years.
Who else could the Twins have gotten at 3B?
I expect a lot of Twins to have better years than last year. Even so, they’ll be a .500 team — unless Liriano, Gomez and Casilla all begin to take off like soaring superstars.
Yep, just a yappin away. I know that Livan is the same thing as Silva basically. It is a decent signing, but in all honesty I wasn’t all that high on Silva and as soon as he demanded the money he did, I am happy we let him go.
Yes, defensively Everett is good. Who else could the Twins had at 3B? Probably noone, that doesn’t change the fact that he is not all that good.
I mean overall, do those names get you excited to watch Twins baseball? Not me.
I am excited to watch, but it is to watch guys like Liriano and Young and see how they do.
I know they are typical Twins signings and not bad one, but they are all pretty “blah” moves if you ask me.
xFIP in 2007
5.62 - Hernandez
4.67 - Silva
3.55 - Santana (for reference)
There is a very significant difference between Hernandez and Silva. Then when you consider their ages and recent trends that gap continues to widen.
YAPPER:
My thoughts exactly. I think I will keep you around to be my mentor!
Okay snepp, MBDave posted this last night about 10:00:
“Don’t forget, for homeruns, Chase Field had an index of 115 in 2007. The Metrodome had an index of 85. If you adjust homeruns allowed accordingly, you would get the following for adjusted home runs allowed in 2007:
Livan Hernandez 29
Johan Santana 40
Carlos Silva 24
Also, Chase field’s index for runs scored in 2007 was 106. The Metrodome’s was 97. Adjusted 2007 ERA’s are as follows:
Livan Hernandez 4.65
Johan Santana 3.43
Carlos Silva 4.32
I throw Santana into the mix here because he is still a hot topic to Twins fans. What I really see is how close Silva and Hernandez are numbers wise. Don’t forget, the Metrodome is a pitchers park (Isn’t that amazing?) while Chase field is a hitters park.”
romer,
I saw that post earlier today, that’s what prompted my reply.
xFIP is park and league adjusted.
Also, MBDave did not take into account Livan’s very disturbing downward statistical trend or their respective ages.
Gleeman has a pretty solid writeup concerning Hernandez, including a chart that makes it easy to see how drastically his numbers have been declining across the board.
http://www.aarongleeman.com/2008_02_10_baseballblog_archive.html#8238508320128285221
Near as I can interpolate, El Duque’s brother is equal to Silva and Liriano is (I hope) equal to Santana, so we should be in good shape! (I hope.)
I think Mike Lamb will be a nice suprise to a lot of fans at the plate…
Now in the field, he will remind us of Brian Buscher.
snepp- I will take Livan’s less attractive numbers for 1 year and 5 mil over Silva’s numbers for 4 years and 48 mil.
i liked fogg, but i think this will be a good pick up, and unlike others i think the team will be fun to watch, and has alot of elements towards making a run in future years, i think the play offs is a definite possibilty this year if monroe gains old form. and from what i have read lirranos is hitting 92-93 and looking good.
who does every one think will be pitching the opener against the angels?
Lamb last two years
2006 Houston Astros 126 381 70 117 22 3 12 45 181 35 55 2 4 .361 .475 .307
2007 Houston Astros 124 311 45 90 14 2 11 40 141 36 45 0 0 .366 .453 .289
Only ? is fielding
Scott Baker will start the Season opener IMO.
Thanks, snepp, for the Gleeman link. I’m now back to reality, yapper.
This is a stopgap season with reasonable expectations for returning Twins and long-shot hopes for Gomez, Casilla, and young starting pitching.
Well…..Hernandez, Liriano, Baker, and Bonser each bring a different look. Perkins too.
So who knows how they’ll all do this year.
Ho-hum………
I think it’s great that there seem to be so many interested Twins fans out there. Even after losing Hunter and Santana, I hope they do alright. By the way, I’ve seen a couple blogs about Santana being the best pitcher in baseball. How do you figure that? He wasn’t even in the top 5 in ERA in the AL last year. And all those HR’s allowed? In a pitcher’s park? Maybe it’s his imposing 1-2 lifetime post season record. He wasn’t even the best pitcher in the AL Central, much less baseball.
Most Important of all———
SIGN JOE NATHAN !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
SIGN JOE NATHAN !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
SIGN JOE NATHAN !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
“I think they should sign Joe Nathan.”
HAVE FUN !!! GO TWINS !!!
Roundabout
wherever you are
what are yankee fans saying about the Clemens hearing today?
Are they at all concerned about Pettitte and how he may or may not be affected?
MBDave, I agree about Santana. He had a very mixed season last year. The Twins were still about 6 games out in mid-Aug or so. Then Santana’s un-excellence and a lot of injuries finished off their season.
Time to move on, pray for our boys-of-summer’s health, and forget Santana — no matter how well he does as a Met.
And the first prayer is that Liriano will start the opener.
T said at 10:27 a.m. yesterday –
“And while I side with Twins management, it’s more because I hate to see the blame getting put where it doesn’t belong. Case in point, blaming Gardy for Punto last season as opposed to putting the blame on Ryan for not helping him get a better 3B sooner.
Or blaming the Castillo trade for the 07 season as opposed to the sheer misfortune of a bunch of career years being followed by equally career lows.”
I won’t sit still for such historical revision.
There was blogger insurrection because of no DH and Punto at 3B. Then the Castillo trade caused player insurrection. To wit –
1. Hunter flew
2. Silva didn’t do a discount
3. Santana, the very hour he found out about the Castillo trade, set up his move to the Mets.
And it isn’t BS’s fault, and we have to move on. But if BS pulls any more TR stuff like last season, bloggers, players, and fair-minded journalists will utilize instant recall — with no historical revisionism — and know full well who is splattering in their faces.
Enough ownership elitism already. And always remember, these events and the resulting insurrections took place in the climate of finally getting a new stadium.
Management made a royal mess, and we have a transitional year — to put it kindly — to prove it.
Injuries didn’t help. But injuries didn’t piss of Santana, Hunter and Silva; elitist and conservative attitude did.
Romer,
You need to hit the hay a little sooner than 2:35am. You might be able to think better.
Is there any chance that the Twins could convert to a minor leaague franchise in the future? I don’t think they can realistically complete with most major league teams. The organization seems especially suited for developing young talent for other clubs. The Minnesota fans would enjoy watching a really good minor league team similar to the St. Paul Saints.
Romer, it is good to be postitive about the Twins, but on paper, this lineup and rotation doesn’t look very strong. However it is young and has the Twins favorite word “potential”!
I think this is the year though that we will find out which of our touted pitching prospects we decide to keep around and which of them we deal or make relievers out of. If there is one thing we get out of this season, it had better be that. The rotation is largely a big ? mark and I think that we will see lots of different guys get chances.
That said, I am hoping they can surprise and make it interesting and stay in the race at least until July. I will be pretty disappointed if we are out of it by the middle of June but that could happen also.
Guys I am expecting big year from: Kubel, Young, Perkins, Baker, Slowey, hopefully Harris or whomever takes the 2B job.
Guys that I think will disappoint: Liriano(not that he can’t or won’t be great in the future, but people are expecting too much from him), Lamb, CF(whoever it is), Livan.
The rest of the squad we pretty much know what we are getting: Mauer, Morneau, Cuddy, Everett, bullpen.
romer,
If Santana, Hunter and Silva had ACTUALLY fled because of the Castillo trade, than they would have been gutless deserters.
However, they ACTUALLY fled because of more money and security offered elsewhere which the Twins would have been stupid to try to match.
Their leaving now will allow the Twins to rebuild, which they could not have done, while paying $150 million, $90 million and $48 million to the Threesome.
However, if we had kept the Threesome, we could have finished 3rd again.
As it is, their thoughtful exodus will lead to a Twins resurgence in 2009-2010.
I thought the Twins FO was blowing smoke up everyone’s … from the point Castillo was traded. Nothing to this point has proved me wrong, yet. That is part of why Hunter and Santana left. Who care about Silva leaving! Both Hunter and Santana stated that they wanted to be a part of a team that is dedicated to WINNING! Not a team satisfied with being competitive…Competitive the Twins will be but they will loose allot of games.. BIG DIFFERENCE
Would Santana have turned down $150 million/7 years and would Hunter have turned down $90 million/5years if the Twins had kept Luis Castillo?
I’ll let you answer that for yourself.
I have already answered that for myself.
Sane
My response is Yes..
because luis walks at seasons end
unless you are asking if the twins would resign castillo at the end of the season..
but if your paying hunter and santana that kind of money then you are upper payroll and absurd amount
not to mention..
what are you going to do about joe nathan? if you pay johan and hunter then you gotta pay Joe..
then your asking yourself..
do i really want to pay $35 a ticket to sit in the upper deck?
MH,
Are you saying YES, Santana and Hunter would have turned down the big money, because Castillo was staying in Minnesota?
I get it.
I meant:
Would Santana have tutned down the Mets offer and would Hunter have turned down the Angels offer in order to stay in Minnesota with Luis Castillo?
No. Because the Twins were not going to keep Castillo past 2007. That is why they dealt him instead of letting him walk.
IMO Santana leaving Minnesota had very little to do with the Luis Castillo trade and much more to with the Barry Zito contract.
You are correct sane. The FO messed up and didn’t sign Santana when they had the chance to do so for less.
Then Zito got his insane contract and threw the entire Free Agent process permanently out of whack.
