In search of the Twins’ optimal lineup
Posted on March 14th, 2008 – 9:31 AMBy Joe Christensen
FORT MYERS — The Twins are 8-7 at the half-way point of their Grapefruit League schedule, and there’s plenty at stake over the last 15 games.
I used the word struggling to describe Denard Span in our notebook yesterday, and that might have been strong. He has a .393 on-base percentage and had two hits wiped out by rain against Tampa Bay on March 4. Give him those two knocks, and he’s batting .292.
Carlos Gomez has been very impressive on a couple occasions, but for the most part, he’s struggled, as his .148 average and .167 OBP shows.
But Craig Monroe looks very good at the plate right now. I want to see what he can do in center field because based on what I’ve seen, I think this would be this team’s optimal lineup for Opening Day:
1. Brendan Harris, 2B
2. Joe Mauer, C
3. Delmon Young, LF
4. Justin Morneau, 1B
5. Michael Cuddyer, RF
6. Jason Kubel, DH
7. Craig Monroe, CF
8. Mike Lamb, 3B
9. Adam Everett, SS
I think Cuddyer will bat third and Young fifth to start the season. My point is, the above players give this team the best chance to win. There is plenty of time for Span or Gomez to change my mind.
To be clear, Manager Ron Gardenhire hasn’t given up on Span or Gomez. But when asked about the possibility of Monroe in center field Thursday, Gardenhire said, “If I put him in center at times, I would have an opportunity to have Kubel DH-ing. If those guys are all swinging good, that’s a lot more thunder. I’m not afraid to do stuff like that. I want that as an option.”
Also, this was going to be a blog post yesterday, but the editors were kind enough to find space in the paper. Introducing, one of the toughest baseball fans I’ve ever met.
96 Responses to "In search of the Twins’ optimal lineup"
this looks like a good take on things joe. of course i have only seen one game on tv and only know what i read in the paper which is scary at best. if they fall out by mid season monroe should be worth something in a trade if he hits and then span or gomez, which ever has done the best, can take over cf and hopefully casilla will be ready to take over ss next spring.
Why not place Delmon Young in CF and more Monroe to LF? I would rather see that for 100 games then Monroe play 10 in CF and pull something!
Taxman
Why would Monroe pull something playing CF but not pull something playing LF?
I think Joe has done a good job, and I appreciate the fact that Gomez is in AAA. Pridie can start a game or two a week in Center to give Monroe a day off now and again.
This actually looks pretty good… The only issue is that Harris has no speed on the 1st hole… How about this version?
1. Joe Mauer, C
2. Delmon Young, LF
3. Justin Morneau, 1B
4. Michael Cuddyer, RF
5. Jason Kubel, DH
6. Craig Monroe, CF
7. Brendan Harris, 2B
8. Mike Lamb, 3B
9. Adam Everett, SS
With:
Redmond
Punto
Pridie/Span
Ruiz, on the bench
and if they go down to 11 pitchers, Casilla
I like the lineup. Every guy but the ss can hit 15+ homers and with this pitching we need all the runs we can get.
Please stick with Harris.
Joe C.
Could you please explain why Pridie is no longer in the running for centerfield in the coaches minds? Even though as most people down in florida have said that he’s the most consistant hitter and consistant on Defense. As you point out Gomez is struggling a lot and Span is so-so… why did the pull out Pridie?
Thrylos 98,
Harris runs as well as Mauer.
IMO Mauer should not be asked to steal bases in the leadoff spot.
15 stolen bases would result in 60 days on the DL.
They aren’t going to be moving Gomez around the outfild, that would only hinder his development. And Span is a CF in the Pierre model, not really a corner outfielder. Pridie has the bat to play the corner and is polished enough to handle moving around.
That’s not a bad looking lineup, but it’s funny because the Twins have been so speed oriented thus far in ST and I don’t know if there is anyone in the lineup that can steal more than 10 bases.
IMO JoeC has the best lineup with Span or Pridie platooning with Monroe in CF if Monroe struggles with a good RHP.
LNP4Life,
I think Span (like Pierre) may end up in LF where his weak arm will do less damage than in CF.
The team doesn’t need Young in front of Morneau making outs. He needs to be on the back end of the middle of the order.
There’s also no benefit to playing Monroe in center. He’s not capable defensively, and despite his spring training statistics (what, does he have 25 AB?), he’s not a good hitter.
Billy
33HR and 101 RBI in 2006 indicates that there is a possible benefit from Monroe in CF.
Who did you mean was the out-maker?
Young or Morneau?
Harris has decent speed. I think him and Mauer could make a nice Hit n Run combo
Craig Monroe has never hit 33 home runs, or had 101 RBI in a season.
Monroe doesn’t hit for average, nor does he get on base. All he is capable of is hitting a fair amount of homeruns. 20-25 homers a year doesn’t offset the damage done by making outs in 70% of your at bats. I wouldn’t expect Monroe to be on the favorable side of those numbers, either, considering his career statistics.
so getting hits in 30% of your at bats is a bad thing??
Also the over/under on game by Kubel in the OF should be about 5. Thats why Pridie is getting moved around.
Little Ron’s not affraid to make a decision. He’s good enough, smart enough and just a dang sweet boy.
I should have said “plate appearances,” rather than at bats. Monroe could probably be expected to hit around .220-.250 this season.
A couple years ago the Twins would have killed for .250 and 20-25 hr’s.
Those numbers are on par with Frank Thomas and Jack Cust types
“If I put him in center at times/b>”
I doubt Gardy would let Monroe stumble around in center filed for very long. He might try it and find out he loses three runs and gains one.
They need to put one of the two guys who can chase down balls out there every day and let them learn how to hit major league pitching. It means they probably shouldn’t use them in the lead-off role. But they can’t afford to give up any more hits than they already will with the lack of strikeouts in this staff.
Even Ken Griffey jr types
I don’t like the idea of Monroe in CF for too many games though. DH would be it
Billy,
Counting postseason (5HR, 9 RBI), Monroe hit 33-101 in 2006.
You may put all your belief in the value of OBP, but I don’t and IMO neither does the Twins staff. (or many others)
I’ll take Monroe over Span in CF for four at bats and then turn the lead over to the defense. (Span, Pridie, Gomez or Punto)
Frank Thomas and Jack Cust get on base. Monroe doesn’t. Monroe is a similar hitter to Tony Batista, who also stinks.
Lets see.
A batting lineup of Everett at SS, Punto at 2B, Kubel at DH, and one of the three banjos in CF.
That should score two runs, and we can hope the rotation can make that hold up.
No thanks, I like JoeC’s lineup of Harris at 2B and Monroe in CF. Maybe four runs might actually win some games.
You may put all your belief in the value of OBP, but I don’t and IMO neither does the Twins staff. (or many others)
…and that’s why the Twins have had such great offenses in recent years.
No thanks, I like JoeC’s lineup of Harris at 2B and Monroe in CF. Maybe four runs might actually win some games.
Clearly Harris and Monroe are going to be worth 324 runs over Punto and Pridie this year.
Harris stinks in the field, but can hit. Monroe stinks in the field, and can’t hit. One of the two should play. Guess which one?
If they keep Span or Gomez, they will be the starting CF. If Pridie makes the team, then it is more wide open who’s playing CF everyday.
Cuddyer hitting 3rd?? WTF?? Only the Twins would have a .270 hitter with 15-20 HR’s hitting 3rd. Why are they s oinfatuated with him?? He’s an OK big leaguer with an above average arm. Why do the Twins and media make him out ot be All-Star material every year.
Billy,
Not two runs every game, but two runs in 10-20 games which changes a 70-win season into a 80-90 win season.
So, now Harris and Monroe are going to win the Twins 10-20 games? I’m sorry, but your opinion on this is ridiculous. You’re overstating the impact of a good hitter, while not recognizing that Monroe isn’t one.
TK on Cuddyer: “Why do the Twins and media make him out to be All-Star material every year?”
Because they have no choice! Somewhat sad AND true! No offense meant to Cuddy, cuz he’s a decent guy.
Monroe scored 100 runs and drove in 101 runs in 2006.
Stat lovers must realize that getting on base and being left on base is a waste.
The scoreboard keeps track of RUNS.
The team with the most RUNS wins.
Baserunners left on base don’t help a team win.
Joe C…im glad to see we are thinking alike, as i posted that very same lineup on LEN3s crain post at 12:11am this am…i too think this lineup, on all cylinders could do some real damage and have to hope that we could just get decent starting pitching and score 4-5 runs a game… that would give us alot of wins and who knows from there, anything is possible—i also have a feeling this might be one of those clubs that plays contagiously, so when one gets hot they all get hot and start winning like that..its still very early and alot more will be laid out before opening nite, but its fun to speculate, lets just hope the casillas and gomez learn this game of baseballsoon so they can contribute-they are big factors in the future of this club…
I think you have to put cuddyer 3rd young just makes an out way too often something I don’t want happening in front of morneau .
Monroe is hitting just fine this spring. However, he will hit a lot better, and so will Kubel, if those two platoon at DH.
TK he’s not but I want the guys who make the least amount of outs and right now Cuddyer is better at that then young cuddyer can post a .350-.360 OBP and young is only at a .320 -.330 OBP.
Cuddyer at the 3-hole will get better pitches to hit with Mornoe behind him than he would get at the 5-hole with Kubel behind him. Young could probably manage better the 5-hole…
make that Morneau not Monroe…
sane 2006 was 2 years ago he’s not that guy anymore.
sane yeah I mean it’s just chance that the teams that lead the league in OBP lead the league in runs every year.
Monroe scored 100 runs and drove in 101 runs in 2006.
Stat lovers must realize that getting on base and being left on base is a waste.
The scoreboard keeps track of RUNS.
The team with the most RUNS wins.
Baserunners left on base don’t help a team win.
What is a “stat lover?” Someone that uses statistics other than the ones you understand?
LPN4 life no it not a bad thing but if you never take a walk then that’s not good either players that get walks get them because they don’t swing at bad pitches or pitchers pitches the first rule of good hitting is to swing at pitches you can hit and those pitches are in the strike zone not out of it. Hitting .300 isn’t a bad thing its a good thing hitting .300 and taking walks when you don’t have a good pitch to hit is better.
With all do respect to Joe C., if that is the starting team, this could be the worst team in the history of the franchise, and I’ve seen them all.
Talk about holes in the fielding game, there’s no telling how many runs the opposition might score.
do? - due
sane, Craig Monroe has never scored 100 runs in a season, nor has he ever driven in 100 runs in a season.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/m/monrocr01.shtml
In his career year in 2006, Monroe scored 89 runs and drove in 92 RBI,in a stacked Detroit lineup that gave him plenty of RBI chances and had plenty of guys capable of driving him home.
Consider: he scored all those runs while getting on base only 160 times in 585 plate appearances (.301 OBP). Not counting his 28 HR, he was driven in 61 of the 132 times he was on base…that’s half. Also, remember that he got all those RBI while only hitting .255. The 28 HR were nice, but all those RBI with so few hits means that Tigers were in scoring position for him a lot.
Amazing job by the Detroit Tigers offense being on base ahead of Monroe and knocking him in when he did get on base in 2006…but not that impressive for a career year by Craig Monroe.
I’m allright with Monroe as a backup. I wish him well. I’d even take him as the starting CF if it means Gomez will get some time in the minors, because the Twins just aren’t gonna do it this year. But I don’t expect a lot from him.
I have long ago given up on converting Bill James worshipers.
Sorry for wasting anyone’s time.
The Red Sox have already proven that with a $200 million payroll, Beckett, DiceK, Schilling, Wakefield, Lester,Buchholtz,Papelbon, Okajima, DelCarmen, Varitek, Big Papi, Manny, Youkilis, Pedroia, Cabrera, Lugo, Lowell,Drew, Ellsbury, Casey, Crisp and a high OBP, that that they can win championships.
Kubelfan,
I am counting Monroe’s postseason when he hit 5HR, 9 RBI and scored 11 runs.
Kubelfan,
Also, Monroe had 39 doubles and 2 triples in 2006. Hitting doubles and triples makes it easier to be driven in by others, especially since no one has to give themselves up to advance you into scoring position.
i tolbert my be our new shorstop
i think tolbert my be our new shortstop
Sane how about what Monroe did last year?
The only issue is that Harris has no speed on the 1st hole…
You may have a point. Let’s continue:
How about this version?
1. Joe Mauer, C…
Wait, wha? I don’t seem to recall Baby Jesus being known for his basestealing prowess.
The Red Sox have already proven that with a $200 million payroll…they can win championships.
I hope you don’t mind Sane, but I cut the fluff from your post to cut to the chase.
I would hope that a team throwing $200M a year around would be able to come up with a championship once in a while.
You may put all your belief in the value of OBP, but I don’t and IMO neither does the Twins staff. (or many others)
That’s just pure BS, sane. You are on an island of one if you think OBP doesn’t matter. The Twins staff emphasizes an aggressive approach, but only because they think it’s more effective in scoring runs than an overly patient approach. You can’t score runs if you don’t get on base.
who is tolbert?
Cmath,
Of course high OBP is better than low OBP.
But, if you think Denard Span with a higher OBP contributes to the offense more than Craig Monroe with 101 RBI and 100 runs scored (IF he could repeat 2006), THERE is where we disagree.
OBP IS IMPORTANT, but it is not the only factor in the equation.
Paul,
Agreed.
If we get Monroe2007 rather than Monroe2006, he will be useless.
But his ST numbers are encouraging.
How bout that Carlos Gomez today??
Calling Kenny Lofton, calling Kenny Lofton.
Seriously all these guys need another year in AAA and Monroe in CF? Are you serious. Yeah he can catch the ball Im sure but you want that much of a lack of range in the OF with such a young inexperienced staff.
May as well add another run to ever Twins pitchers era.
tolbert is looking smooth at short, suddenly driving the ball too. The question is rather he’s going to make this team or not, its rather he’s going to start or not…
tolbert is looking smooth at short, suddenly driving the ball too. The question is rather he’s going to make this team or not, its rather he’s going to start or not…
I guess it’ll be a cold day in hell before Gary or his all-too-willing-to-support-another-Twins-cliche media alliance gives any kudos or credit to Denard Span or Alexi Casilla, or ever dares to rip on bums like Gomez or Punto. (Carlos Gomez not only isn’t Ricky Henderson but he’s not even Christian Guzman!)
Let’s hope Bill Smith has the courage to get rid of Gardy and his completely irrational, illogical managing tendencies after this season. This gets so old, man.
I mean, what could Gardy and the Twins do with that meager .393 OBP of Span’s during the regular season. Yeah, it’s just a SHADE above the .167 OBP of Gomez–not enough to really matter. Stupid me.
Maybe someday the Twins organization will put their big boy pants on and spend some money, then they won’t have any excuses for not winning anything.
I doubt it would help though.
And $200 million is a gross exaggeration. And that’s TWO champiuonships for Theo, still, and zero for teh brilliant Terry Ryan.
gotta spend to win big, we my have ourselves a shortstop after all in this tolbert kid 
Mixed message #1001 from Ron Gardenhire: “We want a guy that gets on base, can steal a few bases, and can man his position defensively as our leadoff guy.”
Yeah, that REALLY sounds like Gomez, who Gardy has an almost eerie affection for. The guy can’t hit, he can’t get on base, and he often throws the ball into the stands trying to hit the cut-off man, not to mention he’s just a tad bit overrated as a defensive center fielder to being with.
Besides, if he’s so fast, if he’s such a threat on the bases, why are his steal numbers typically but half of Alexi Casilla’s in the minors???
gomez hitting today got a triple and a double, tolbert looking very smooth on short.
lets talk about this tolbert, is he going to help us, looks like he might. a young shortstop that can hit is just what we need
Lala72,
everyone in the organization hoped that Gomez would win the CF job, esp. because the trade he was involved. I agree that Span outplayed him out there. (and arguably Pridie outplayed them both.) As far as the CF call goes, I bet that BS has some input as well (because of that trade.) But I agree that this organization has marginalized some players (Ortiz, Casey Blake, JC Romero etc) while falling in love with others (Hocking, Punto etc) My theory is that they remind Gardenhire of himself (light singles hitter with career .277 OBP, sleek field) and he just cannot let go. I agree that has to change… If it take gardenhire been gone to have a meritocrasy, let be it…
lets talk about this tolbert, is he going to help us, looks like he might. a young shortstop that can hit is just what we need!!!
tolbert has gotten better with every season he’s played from college to the minors, and now majors… he can play
he is solid
I have long ago given up on converting Bill James worshipers.
Sorry for wasting anyone’s time.
You’ve been making a fool of yourself all over these blogs, this is just the icing.
You can quote his RBI total from two years ago over and over (and over and over and over, which you’ve been doing incessantly) until the end of time, but it won’t change the fact that Monroe, when not hitting left-handed pitching, is pretty awful offensively.
Monroe can’t cover center field! Why not put my grandmother out there? And no matter what happens, it looks like we’ll have another mediocre leadoff hitter again this year. I hate starting every game one out in the hole.
“We want a guy that gets on base, can steal a few bases, and can man his position defensively as our leadoff guy.”
I have got the man that fits Gardy’s needs…Brian Roberts.
Then we can shift Harris to platoon with Lamb at 3B.This plays to Lambs strengths against RHP and Harris against LHP.Punto’s only use will be as a utlility player.
If Baltimore is looking to move him, the Twins should attempt to obtain him with some of our prospects.
Lets bring in a real leadoff hitter instead of forcing one of the youngsters in there before they are truely ready.
tolbert at short makes sense
Hey twins fan, What do you think about Tolbert?
Tolbert has a career .963 fielding percentage… he reminds me of his current manager as a player. Gardy had a carrer .959 fp…
tolbert is our best option at short
People are awfully quick to give up on players based on a few Spring Training games.
If I told you that Carlos Gomez was going to outhit Ichiro Suzuki by over 100 pts in average and 200+ in OPS, wouldn’t you think he would start in center?
Maybe the Twins can pick up Ichiro on waivers after he and his .076 ST average get cut.
Stats don’t mean crap in ST. Half of you idiots were calling for Silva to be sent to the minors last year at this time.
Gomez starts in center. He can do too many things that no one else in MLB can, throw, catch and steal bases. The coaches see these guys every day and are paid to evaluate talent.
They only send him down if he has a bad attitude or becomes uncoachable; otherwise, the place for him to learn is with the best players, role models and coaches. And that means the Big Club.
Old Twins Cap,
“He can do too many things that no one else in MLB can, throw, catch and steal bases.”
No one else in MLB can throw, catch and steal bases?
Sy,
Nope Just Carlos Gomez can throw, catch and steal bases, and he’s the player Twins fans didn’t really want until they got him.. Ellsbury was choice one and Martinez was preferred Met “phenom.” Now, Gomez is the second-coming and he hasn’t played a major league season yet..
You’re a national baseball writer, and you don’t know the real Craig Monroe? C’mon. Ask any scout about Monroe and he’ll tell you the guy has huge holes in his swing, is no match for a curveball and is a one-dimensional guy. I’m stunned you can look at 2 weeks of spring training games and overlook the fact that this guy is a certified streaky .240-.250 hitter with maybe 25-homer power — nothing more, nothing less. I saw Monroe with the Tigers for many years, and that’s just what he is (and also injury-prone now). What you’ve seen in 2 weeks of exhibition games means zero.
Reid Creager,
Maybe Joe’s point was:
that a certified streaky .240-.250 hitter with maybe 25-homer power is a possible alternative to:
1) a AAA .267 hitter last year who is currently hitting .227 in ST, and
2) a flaky .232 hitter last year who is currently hitting .188 in ST.
Monroe is an average/decent hitter for an outfielder, at best - not saying much with today’s inflated power numbers. And he had one good power season in 2006, with 28 Hr and 35 doubles, but hit .255 with an OBA of .301.
Considering the Twins’ hitting, Monroe could be considered a gem, I guess.
Spring is a time for optimism. Let’s hope the new Twins contribute to a successful season.
I think Joe C. looks like a young Andy McPhail.
What a silly comparison - Gomez and Ichiro.
Ichiro has a history that includes 240-plus hits a season, with 30 stolen bases, as well as great defense. He can hit .071 in Spring Training.. Who cares.
Gomez’ resume is zilch..
The point is that people put too much stock in ST numbers, and not in what a player can do.
Have you ever heard of irony?
Gomez has shown more than enough to start, and is the most exciting player they have had since a little spark-plug came up in May of 1984, a game I was listening to on the radio.
Old Twins Cap:
Maybe you need a writing lesson in irony lol … I thought you were being more sarcastic.
Yes, fans put too much emphasis on Spring Training - especially with rookies…
Gomez should start in AAA - where he can get constant one-on-one instruction on the game. He’s going to get overpowered with his swing.
But an argument can be made, the Twins have nobody else. If the choice is Monroe or Gomez, I would probably prefer to see how Gomez will do. I already know what Monroe can do - or can’t do.
Joe, your lineup is exactly what the lineup should be. Will Gardenhire go with it? Likely not. Why? It makes far too much sense. How’s he going to get Punto in that lineup? Kubel will no doubt continue to get jerked around too.
I really think Kubel should be in the lineup every day, weather as DH, Right field, or whatever. He’s never had the opportunity to be a regular for the entire season yet, and I think that if he could come to the ballpark every day knowing he was going to play, his hitting would improve - and it’s already pretty good. I think he could be a 30+ homer guy on a regular basis.
So, Gardenhire’s comment about having the opportunity to have Kuble DH if Monroe was in center surprised me. In my opinion, if someone else starting CF job, Kubel should be the every day DH, and Monroe strictly a 4th outfielder.
I REALLY hope Gardy isn’t planning to give Monroe at-bats at the expense of Kubel.
I agree with those here who point out that Monroe is nothing to get excited about. Last year the Tigers designated him for assignment. He and Kubel are going in opposite directions.
As for Center Field, I say Pridie, based on his minor-league superiority to Span. Let Gomez mature at AAA. We’ll all be swearing watching Gomez try to hit in the Bigs this year.
You people are all idiots spending this much time beating a dead horse. Please realize that your opinions mean absolutely nothing. Quit wasting your time and get a life!
rtyui
then what are you doing on this blog? Wasting your time?
