FORT MYERS — I just passed along an update to other national writers about Carlos Gomez winning the Twins’ center field battle, along with the buzz La Velle and Souhan have been hearing that Francisco Liriano will open the season on a minor-league rehab assignment.

I offered this current projection:

ROTATION
1. Livan Hernandez
2. Boof Bonser
3. Kevin Slowey
4. Nick Blackburn
5. Scott Baker
Coming soon: Francisco Liriano

LINEUP
1. Carlos Gomez, CF
2. Joe Mauer, C
3. Michael Cuddyer, RF
4. Justin Morneau, 1B
5. Delmon Young, LF
6. Craig Monroe/Jason Kubel, DH
7. Brendan Harris, 2B
8. Mike Lamb, 3B
9. Adam Everett, SS

Then, I thought about what I’d be thinking if I were a writer from Los Angeles or Baltimore, someone who’d skimmed a few Twins blurbs this spring but hadn’t paid close attention since they traded Johan Santana to the Mets.

The conclusion? I’d probably think the Twins were going to be awful this year. Not just average. Awful.

I’ve been thinking all day about changing my third-place prediction for this team, perhaps picking them fourth behind the White Sox. A good friend chided me about that third-place prediction, saying I’d probably been subjected to the rose-colored-glasses syndrome a lot of writers get after spending six weeks around the same team all spring.

I’m a glass-is-half-full kind of guy, and it’s easy to believe teams are going to be better when the people you cover are brimming with optimism. The Twins haven’t lost a game since Sept. 29 (Wakefield over Blackburn at Fenway Park), so it’s easy for them to stay positive now.

For me, the fact Liriano probably won’t open the season with the team was almost the straw that broke the camel’s back. But then I caught myself. In baseball, it’s not about how you start, it’s how you finish. For five weeks, all of us tend to obsess about the Opening Day roster. We grab the preview magazines and study each team’s projected lineup and rotation and base our early predictions on those.

Then, a lot of us wait for those end-of-spring decisions, and make some knee-jerk decisions. Torii Hunter is gone, Santana is gone … Livan Hernandez is the Opening Day starter … and, now Liriano isn’t even ready to start the season! That must mean the Twins are terrible!

Trust me, this team isn’t terrible. Not saying the Twins will compete with Cleveland and Detroit, but I think they’ll hold their own and get better as the season progresses. No matter how management wants to spin it, this is a rebuilding year, and I think this has potential to go well.

Baker is not a No. 5 starter. He looked terrific early in camp, and by about mid-April, I expect him to look solid again. Liriano did not have some major setback in spring training. By mid-April, he could become a force again, if not quite as dominant as 2006, something approaching that.

The lineup is better. Gomez will have his ups and downs, but his ups are extraordinary. Mauer looks terrific this spring, healthy and strong. Folks who haven’t seen Delmon Young are in for a treat. Mark it down: This kid will thrive in Minnesota.

Bullpens are often overlooked this time of year, and Pat Neshek and Joe Nathan have looked exceptional. I think Nathan’s contract extension signified how serious this team is about sustaining its success.

Again, no one is saying this is a playoff team. But I don’t think an above .500 finish is out of the question. If the Twins can accomplish that in a rebuilding year, it should be fun for their fans to watch.

This entry was posted on Monday, March 24th, 2008 at 4:22 pm and is filed under Twins thoughts. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.