Twins are better than they look on paper
Posted on March 24th, 2008 – 4:22 PMBy Joe Christensen
FORT MYERS — I just passed along an update to other national writers about Carlos Gomez winning the Twins’ center field battle, along with the buzz La Velle and Souhan have been hearing that Francisco Liriano will open the season on a minor-league rehab assignment.
I offered this current projection:
ROTATION
1. Livan Hernandez
2. Boof Bonser
3. Kevin Slowey
4. Nick Blackburn
5. Scott Baker
Coming soon: Francisco Liriano
LINEUP
1. Carlos Gomez, CF
2. Joe Mauer, C
3. Michael Cuddyer, RF
4. Justin Morneau, 1B
5. Delmon Young, LF
6. Craig Monroe/Jason Kubel, DH
7. Brendan Harris, 2B
8. Mike Lamb, 3B
9. Adam Everett, SS
Then, I thought about what I’d be thinking if I were a writer from Los Angeles or Baltimore, someone who’d skimmed a few Twins blurbs this spring but hadn’t paid close attention since they traded Johan Santana to the Mets.
The conclusion? I’d probably think the Twins were going to be awful this year. Not just average. Awful.
I’ve been thinking all day about changing my third-place prediction for this team, perhaps picking them fourth behind the White Sox. A good friend chided me about that third-place prediction, saying I’d probably been subjected to the rose-colored-glasses syndrome a lot of writers get after spending six weeks around the same team all spring.
I’m a glass-is-half-full kind of guy, and it’s easy to believe teams are going to be better when the people you cover are brimming with optimism. The Twins haven’t lost a game since Sept. 29 (Wakefield over Blackburn at Fenway Park), so it’s easy for them to stay positive now.
For me, the fact Liriano probably won’t open the season with the team was almost the straw that broke the camel’s back. But then I caught myself. In baseball, it’s not about how you start, it’s how you finish. For five weeks, all of us tend to obsess about the Opening Day roster. We grab the preview magazines and study each team’s projected lineup and rotation and base our early predictions on those.
Then, a lot of us wait for those end-of-spring decisions, and make some knee-jerk decisions. Torii Hunter is gone, Santana is gone … Livan Hernandez is the Opening Day starter … and, now Liriano isn’t even ready to start the season! That must mean the Twins are terrible!
Trust me, this team isn’t terrible. Not saying the Twins will compete with Cleveland and Detroit, but I think they’ll hold their own and get better as the season progresses. No matter how management wants to spin it, this is a rebuilding year, and I think this has potential to go well.
Baker is not a No. 5 starter. He looked terrific early in camp, and by about mid-April, I expect him to look solid again. Liriano did not have some major setback in spring training. By mid-April, he could become a force again, if not quite as dominant as 2006, something approaching that.
The lineup is better. Gomez will have his ups and downs, but his ups are extraordinary. Mauer looks terrific this spring, healthy and strong. Folks who haven’t seen Delmon Young are in for a treat. Mark it down: This kid will thrive in Minnesota.
Bullpens are often overlooked this time of year, and Pat Neshek and Joe Nathan have looked exceptional. I think Nathan’s contract extension signified how serious this team is about sustaining its success.
Again, no one is saying this is a playoff team. But I don’t think an above .500 finish is out of the question. If the Twins can accomplish that in a rebuilding year, it should be fun for their fans to watch.
100 Responses to "Twins are better than they look on paper"
Well put. They have the best offense they have had in a long time. While the pitchers are mostly very young, they are MLB quailty and I think this is a team that will only get better as the season (and years) progresse(s).
Joe, you’re smoking crack.
I believe they will be above .500 the 2nd half of the season. I will find that very satisfying if that happens. Good vibes going into 2009. 
A third place finish? - The #2 starter BOOF BONSER FELL OUT OF THE ROTATION LAST YEAR. Does anyone around here remember that? The two best pitchers (Liriano and Baker are having issues before the season begins. I think rghrbek is right, it’s more than rose colored glasses.
Above .500? They couldn’t finish at .500 last year with Santana, Garza, Silva, Hunter, Bartlett.
They replaced their top 3 pitchers with an injured “ace”, a terrible NL reject, and an unknown.
They replaced bartlett with a guy that can’t hit, and 2B with either a guy that can’t hit or a guy that apparently can’t field. They replaced their best hitter with a rookie that will be challenged to get on base consistently (judging from his minor league stats and ST stats).
On the bright side, Young should be good, but he wasn’t exactly dominant last year or this spring, but he should be good. Kubel is a huge step up at DH. 3B should produce more runs. But, that is about it.
Over .500 would be a major achievement for this team this year. If they are over .500 and are actually younger, cheaper, and have a better future than last year, Bill Smith should be GM of the year (and, gasp, Gardy manager of the year).
I like the potential of this team…down the road.I agree with you Joe on one thing in particular,the Twins will be a better team the second half of the year than the first half.Gomez will be fun to watch as he (hopefully) progresses,but the Twins and the fans will have to live with the ups and downs.The same can be said for the young starting rotation.If they finish at .500 this season it will be an hugh success.
All Me, since when is Bonser the two starter?
With injuries sometimes you have to move guys around in the rotation. Do you watch baseball? Do you understand that part of it? Is Livan the ace since he’s the opening day starter too?
GO-GO and DY will ignite the Twins and help them to the playoffs, baby!!!
I still think Liriano makes the rotation coming out of spring training. I believe he made 58 pitches this last start and will add to that in his start Friday. I think he will be able to get through 6 IP by season’s start and hand off to the bullpen. I’m not sure of Blackburn’s pitch counts but his last two appearances were only 2 IP. He did make 3 IP in his only start of the spring. This doesn’t sound like a guy that prepped for the rotation. I think Liriano will come north with the team.
Livan is not terrible. The guy was a World Series MVP and for good reason. Is he Santana, no, but he doesn’t have to be either.
It cracks me up that people thought Torii Hunter was our best hitter last year.
I hope so….
If Liriano gets to 85-90 pitches on Friday and they don’t take him north “because they don’t trust him” then Gardenhire needs a wakeup call. I’m sick of Gardenhire being a girl when it comes to injures. If Liriano says he’s fine, he’s fine. I hate how Gardenhire always babies everybody.
Every other team projects a good season based on a handful of start. We have Morneau, Mauer and Nathan. Those are as good as anyone else has. This division is like the Wild’s, no one stands out as better than the others. All this is based on emotion. Detroit added Cabrera so they must be unstoppable. We lost Santana and Hunter so we must stink. Baseball is more of a team game than other sports and we have 25 players this year who are better than the 25 we started with last year.
Between Innings,
I agree 100% with you that Liriano is coming North with this team unless he gets shelled again on Friday. I also think this team could potentially finish at .500 or better. Just depends on his things shake out in the rotation. I am already convinced the offense is a lot better than years past.
handful of stars I meant, dammit
Good, gutsy call Joe. There will always be pessimists and naysayers….the rest of us will be having fun watching these guys play!!
Our 1-5 in the lineup should be a lot of fun to watch this season. The main thing will be the last three or four spots and how much depth we have.
The problem with predictions is fans tend to believe everyone will have their best year possible. Mauer will keep getting better and stay healthy and Livan will pitch 240 innings and Neshak and Rincon will stay healthy.
If everything falls right, third isn’t ridiculous, but I’d bet 5th.
And Gomez, who was a good not great prospect with the Mets, all of a sudden around here is the second coming of Mays.
D Young will likely be an All-star someday, but that doesn’t mean it will be this year. He will have to improve a lot to approach Torii Hunter in 2008, and most people around here seem to think that’s a foregone conclusion.
Oh, and also, Boof lost some weight, now all of a sudden he is Cy Young?
Gomez will probably be in AAA by May, D Young will have misplayed a few balls and be hitting .250 and benched a game for not running out a pop up and the Twins will be begging someone to pitch 6 effective innings.
I think that scenario is a lot more likely than a 3rd place finish.
Johan couldn’t repeat his 2006 and our bullpen was beat up so we fell below .500
Sabathia can’t repeat his 2007 and their bullpen stinks, today Fultz was optioned to AAA
I say bump the Twins up to 2nd
Everybody is an expert and everybody is a critic at the same time. I dont think anyone knows what is going to happen. I do know that this team should be exciting to watch when they are on a hot streak!
G - everyone is thinking the same thing about the Indians repeating their 2007 and the Tigers aging lineup performing and staying healthy - what everyone forgets is that the other teams have problems too
Sorry to break it to you G, but Gomez was a little better than good. Being compared to Reyes speed is better than “good”.
And the problem with projections isn’t people prediciting all players to have awesome years. Half the time its people coming in here and thinking the team is going to be terrible. Most true fans don’t always expect the worst.
And where did the 240 innings for Livan come from? I’d be happy with 200.
Hunter was the Twins best hitter?? Excuse me! Read slider down and out. A good guy yes, the best hitter, not by a long shot. I’ve got a call (excuse me Dick and Bert) The Twinks WILL contend into and maybe through September 2008!!
According to twinsbaseball.com, Tolbert is a lock to make the 25-man roster. Is this correct?
Yes, Tolbert has made the team…
Wow….congratulations Matt Tolbert!
“On Sunday, the club acquired left-hander Craig Breslow on waivers from Boston, possibly to fill Fultz’s bullpen spot.”
- I thought the Red Sox bullpen stunk and they would trade Crisp for bullpen help. Now the Indians are picking up Boston’s scraps. LOL
Castillo > Gomez (by a little)
Mauer 2008 > Mauer 2007 (health)
Cuddyer 2008 = Cuddyer 2007
Morneau 2008 = Morneau 2007
Young > Hunter (bold, I know)
Kubel/Monroe > whatever Gardy wrote in here
Lamb > Punto
Harris > White/Tyner/?
Bartlett > Everett
It’s equal to or better at every spot except lead-off and ninth. So this team should score more runs. The pitching is the question mark. But there are a lot of guys in AAA working and waiting for guys in the bigs to fail. So as the season goes along, the rotation is bound to get better. I’d say they’ll be under .500 in the first half and over .500 in the second half. They’ll finish around .500 IMO.
Hate to break it to you TwinsTerritory, but speed is meaningless if you can’t get on base.
Gomez might be great, but he was never considered a great prospect. If Gomez is Mays, I guess Fmart is Ted Williams.
If Gomez was a great prosect 9/10 “experts” wouldn’t have said the Twins got shafted in the Santana deal.
G - Fmart can’t play CF. So called 5 tool guys in the corner outfield positions are worthless. Too weak to hit for power. See Lastings Milledge.
Who ever said Gomez was Mays? I know I didn’t
Plus, his speed CAN get him on base and CAN help him in the field. And then when he gets on base his speed CAN get him steals which CAN get him runs.
Finally, everybody said that the Twins got shafted because they traded the best pitcher in all of baseball for prospects. Not becuase they don’t think any of the player are good.
Livan averages 200 innings a year, that would be boring and not spring thinking, think bigger, 240-260 innings, his better years.
“If Liriano says he’s fine, he’s fine.”
Ya that went real well last time, i suggest you find the article on the communication issues they’ve had with him in the past. He said he was fine 2 seasons ago after being out so they brought him back….that ends up leading to Tommy John surgery, Liriano later reveals he was actually still feeling some pain. This is a franchise caliber player that you can build around, unless you know he’s ready to go yourself you can’t bring him back….you can’t trust Liriano at this point.
I’d love for Livan to pitch 240 innings, but I’d be if he could eat 200.
No, the early talk was the Mets could never get Santana because they didn’t have good enough prospects.
I see 30 HRs and 70+ SBs for Gomez thrown around here left and right.
AAA in May, it even rhymes.
It also cracks me up that people have not figured out that this offense has been, and will continue to, be only as good as Justin Morneau. Since he started playing full time the Twins record is 173-121 when he Slugs over .480 for the month and 132-138 when he is under that. THey have played well when he plays well and have played poorly when he plays poorly.
I know the communication issues that they’ve had in the past. But don’t you think Tommy John surgery is enough to make him learn his lesson?
Liriano has said multiple times since 2006 that he has learned to let them know whats wrong so this doesn’t happen again.
You’ve got to at some point trust him don’t you.
Plus, Gardenhire babies every player. No matter is they have communication issues or not.
I’ve never seen that 30 HR projection. He doesn’t have that kind of power. That 70 steals could be possible later in his career. Look at Jose…
Joe, how could you even think of putting the Twins at fourth behind the White Sox. Except for their magical 2005 seasoon when everything went their way right up to the blown calls in the ALCS and WS, Chicago is always below the Twins in the standings.
Minnesota has an easy schedule to start and finish the season. Detroit’s bullpen is shaky - they’ll give back alot of those runs their powerful lineup generates. Granderson will start on the DL. Lots of players have drops in production after signing big free agent contracts.
The biggest worry right now is the one nobody is talking about. Where’s Morneau? He’s putting up Punto numbers. I wouldn’t normally worry, but he has a history of cold streaks. How many weeks can the Twins endure with a big gaping hole in the four spot? How long will Cuddyer be able to carry the team by himself?
Whenever I pay to close attention during the spring, I just remind myself:
“Ramon lead the Grapefruite League in ERA.”
“Hate to break it to you TwinsTerritory, but speed is meaningless if you can’t get on base.”
Well correct me if im wrong, but he hasn’t got on base alot this spring yet he still has 10 steals. That speed will also give him a ton of infield hits. Even with a poor average/obp this season he should get roughly 45-50 steals.
“If Gomez was a great prosect 9/10 “experts” wouldn’t have said the Twins got shafted in the Santana deal.”
Liriano wasn’t a great prospect either when we got him, neither was Santana. You, me nor the experts know how these guys will turn out….Gomez and Guerra could very well become all stars, and for all we know Santana could blow out his arm….like i said its wait and see.
Settle down and let things play out…
Whenever I pay to close attention during the spring, I just remind myself:
“Ramon lead the Grapefruite League in ERA.”
To close attention to stats**
Whenever TwinsTerritory pays too close attention during the spring, TwinsTerritory just reminds him/herself:
“Ramon lead the Grapefruite League in ERA.”
To close attention to stats**
I agree Jake, and I think the same goes for people getting all over Kubel.
ITS SPRING!
We need to settle down a little and see how they play when the season starts.
JP, whats that supposed to mean? You’re a jokester now?
Hunter had the best stats on the team last year. Kind of sad, really, but true. That makes him the most productive hitter on the team. Like it or not, that’s what the stats say. Livan wasn’t the world series MVP last year. His ERA has gone up each year over the last three, and was 4.9x in the NL last year. That doesn’t exactlyl bode well for this year, in the AL.
cmathewson - I mostly agree, though I don’t think Young will produce more than Hunter this year, he could. The issue isn’t your >=< rankings, but HOW MUCH better or worse. Plus, you pretty much left off the pitching other than a throw away sentence or two.
As for being a fan or not, I can be a fan, and still have opinions that believe that Livan is not a good replacement for Santana. I don’t really care if you believe I’m a fan or not, but I’ll still listen to games, and be happy when they win, and bummed when they lose. Just because they meet my low expectations doesn’t mean I’ll be happy if they do.
The hitting and fielding is about as good as it was at the beginning of the season last year. Maybe slightly worse on both accounts. Still, more than adequate to win the division.
It all gets down to the pitching. The bullpen is a proven commodity. No one knows how good (or bad) the young starters are going to be. They could surprise everyone, and shock the baseball world. There is some very real talent in this young group. They could also, very easily, completely flop. When Livan Hernandez is deemed the “ace”, it is not real encouraging.
Sorry TT(if your double-post was a mistake)!
I agree on the ST stats, up to a point. But don’t hitters have a big advantage over pitchers. A guy like Morneau shouldn’t be batting .220 with all the minor leaguers he faced. I guess if most of his ABs were in the early innings, he would have faced more quality pitchers.
I can’t see why people are predicting the White Sox finishing 3rd. I’ve heard Nick Swisher is going to be awful in center. There bullpen is bad at best. There rotation is unsettled and they gave away there best prosects to get Swisher.
No problem JP, I thought you were taking a shot at me or something
Yeah, to a point I pay attention, and I see where you’re coming from on Morneau. I’m not worried yet…
There are just times when I think some people get to caught up with the stats and don’t realize that players are getting back into game form. For example, I remember last year we were all going crazy about Silva’s spring stats. The season came around and he was a decent pitcher.
Dan, I think the White Sox are better than last season, but I don’t think they upgraded that much. Their rotation really doesn’t impress me…
Click on my name for further info, but I think that the Twins will be battling Cleveland for 1st place this year.
There is no argument that the lineup is better than last year
I would argue that pitching is better this year (both the bullpen, no argument there, and the rotation - I am sure that there is a lot of argument there)
Here is a summary: the Twins were a .500 team when Santana was the starter last year - a feat surpassed by both Baker and Slowey last year - and with either Garza or Silva starting, the Twins were sub .500. The team had a better winning percentage with Bonser starting than with either of the departed duo. So realistically, if Liriano has a better year this year than Garza had last year, Hernandez has a better year than the Ponson/Ortiz mess and the others pitch like they did last year, the team might win 5-10 more games this year.
ESPN’s projection (http://games.espn.go.com/flb/tools/projections?display=alt&start=1&proTeamId=9&slotCategoryGroupId=2) has the Twins’ pitchers winning 86 games in 2008.
I seriously think that Detroit is in trouble because of an awful bullpen and mediocre starting pitching after Verlander. BTW, a little mentioned fact: the highly touted Dontrelle Willis had a worse numbers in every pitching category than Livan Hernandez last year… Detroit will have about 80-90 errors between their SS and 3B and their lineup is getting older with their catcher and DH on their last legs. Not to mention that their starting CF and leadoff hitter just broke his hand…
Will Cleveland repeat last year? I doubt it. Carmona will land back to earth and unless Sabathia is signed there will be distractions…
The White Sox will fight with the Royals for last place. They are practically falling apart.
My predition:
Twins 89-73
Cleveland 87-75
Detroit 80-82
Royals 72-90
White Sox 70-92
I’ll take 86 wins in 2008!
Twins Territory
There bullpen isn’t going to help there rotation out any.
Does anybody know why Jerome Williams always gets conected with the Twins? I think he pitched in the system a year or two ago, but hasn’t he been gone for a while?
Dan, you’re right, that bullpen has a bunch of hard throwers and nothing else.
Thrylos 98
I hope your predictions are right it would teach them Tigers not to stack there lineup.
Jerome Williams signed as a (minor league) free agent with the Twins last summer and finished last season in Rochester
I agree that the ChiSox will be awful, but Detroit falling to 80-82 is a stretch. Willis may not be a stud anymore, but Miguel Cabrera is. That team doesn’t even need to pitch with that lineup.
I think the Twins will be okay this year (winning the division is wishful thinking), but I’d be a lot more optimistic about their chances if they didn’t have Hernandez anchoring the rotation. I give him 7 starts before he goes the way of Sidney Ponson, Ramon Ortiz, Tony Batista, Ruben Sierra, and all of the other terrible has-beens the Twins have brought in recently.
Iconoclast, I don’t see Hernandez anchoring the rotation. He is just starting the first game. Slowey and Baker will probably be the anchors with Bonser and Liriano as probabilities if Liriano gains confidence and Bonser’s weight loss produces good results.
btw, I would not quite put Livan in the “had-been” category… He was an All-Star as recently as 2005 and has pitched more than 200 innings every year since 1998. He is 33. His numbers were better than Dontrelle Willis’ last year across the board… is he a had been?
Gomez might be great, but he was never considered a great prospect.
Going into 2007, he was a top 10 overall prospect in all of baseball. If you were paying attention, he was rated above Matt Garza. One reason in part was his 2006 AA line:.281/.349/.423 with 41 SBs as a 20 year old, after skipping high A ball altogether. The other reason is he has five tools, which is very rare, two of which are the best in the game, which is almost unheard of.
So what happened in 2007? Well, the Mets had injury problems and were forced to call him up prematurely, when he was hitting .286/.363/.414 with 17 SBs in 21 attempts as a 21 year old in AAA. Then he held his own in the majors before getting hurt.
But when they brought him back, he had no rehab or anything. So he went 2-20 to end the year and his major league numbers in the small sample looked bad. In short, those who bash Gomez do so on the basis of one week of baseball at the end of last year when he was coming in cold after a 12-week layoff.
Even after 2007, he’s rated at or near the top of the Twins system by every respected ranking system. Aaron Gleeman, who rates the Twins about as well as anyone, ranks him #1 and Span #41 in the Twins system. BA Rates him #1 in the Twins system and #51 in all of baseball.
Man I’m getting tired of writing this. You guys should do some research before you make outlandish claims.
The Atlanta Braves won their division 14 times in a row, in turn their fans stopped showing up until the World Series started. Call me crazy but a little bit of hard times makes the up years “that much more” rewarding. I enjoyed watching the 98 Twins when I could hear my voice echo off the teflon, ten years later things don’t look so bad to me.
Shannon
Joe, I appreciate your optimism and your willingness to back up your optimism with reasons. Still, there’s one point I’m curious about — you talk about the Twins improving in record as if the records of the other teams in baseball don’t matter.
Baseball is ultimately a zero-sum game. With interleague-play, this means that you have to add up all the wins and losses across all of MLB to add up to .500, but that’s still true. So, for the Twins to win more games than they did last year (and to get up to .500 would mean winning more games), someone else has to lose more games.
I don’t see any team in the AL Central other than the Twins that got worse in the off-season: given that the Twins will be playing nearly half their season in this division, which was the best in baseball last year and might be even tougher this year, I don’t see how they can make up any extra wins inside the division, and they might easily end up losing more in the division than they lost last year.
So maybe the Twins will win more games outside the division? I don’t see it — they were already 19-19 against the AL East last year, 21-13 against the AL West, and 11-7 in interleague play. They’ll probably do about the same in the East (Toronto may be improved, but Baltimore and Tampa still suck), they’ll be lucky to do as well against the West even with Oakland rebuilding, and they’ll need fewer interleague games against the improving Brewers and more against clubs like the rebuilding Astros to do any better in ‘08 than they did in interleague in ‘07.
My own guess is that, while this club looks fairly good on paper, it’s not going to play out that way between the lines; between a complete lack of starting rotation strength (even the Royals have reason to believe their starters will be better than the Twins’ this year) and an even more pronounced lack of depth, combined with an improved Central and no margin for error outside the division, I really think the Twins could lose as many as 100 games this year.
Perhaps, if they play their cards right, the Twins could end up losing 100 here, then winning a World Series in five years — with Mauer, Morneau, Young, and Liriano filling the roles of Hrbek. Gaetti, Brunansky, and Viola from 1982-1987. But I see the Twins’ season as looking very similar to the Timberwolves’ season — an exercise in finding out which young guys can play and which need to be replaced before the club can be competitive again.
I think at some point during the season, Gardy will come to his senses, and return Mauer to the #3 spot, where he truly belongs. That would help the team.
I make these predictions in hopes that I will have to eat crow down the road:
1. Jason Kubel will NEVER be a successful major league player. The dream is dead. Put him out to pasture.
2. Our 7-8-9 hitters will have the worst offensive stats in all of MLB for 2008.
3. Our team ERA will be near last in the league, because of our *abominable* starting pitching.
*NOTE: I love the Twins. I really do. I’m just hoping that, since I didn’t knock on wood first, none of my predictions will come true.
Baseball is ultimately a zero-sum game. With interleague-play, this means that you have to add up all the wins and losses across all of MLB to add up to .500, but that’s still true. So, for the Twins to win more games than they did last year (and to get up to .500 would mean winning more games), someone else has to lose more games…..
I don’t see any team in the AL Central other than the Twins that got worse in the off-season
Detroit and the White Sox got worse this off-season and Cleveland overachieved last year, while the Twins underachieved. Last year the Twins lost 26 games by less than 2 runs, while having at least 3 inadequate starters (e.g. Tyner DH, Lew Ford, Garett Jones, Luis Rodriguez, Nick Punto 3B, Rondell White DH etc…) in their lineup. If they win a third of these games last year because of lineup improvements, thats 9 more wins (or a total to 88 for the year….)
Joe,
i like your lineup, but lets talk about the elephant in the room. How long is Harris going to see regular action at 2B. I say unless he is hitting over .300 and slugging close to .430 LNP will start more and more games. You know Gardy won’t be able to resist the temptation to write LNP at 2B, especially after a missed DP, or a high chopper gets misplayed.
To be honest I am not as opposed to LNP playing at 2B this year. I figure:
1)there is no way he can hit as bad as he did last year.
2)a middle of the diamond of Mauer, Everett, Punto and Gomez could be one of the best in baseball, although Joe would have to hit somewhere near .500 to keep the colective average above .230.
3)With Hunter, Santana gone and LNP on the bench what the hell will DickBert talk about. I am assuming that they will start to get some pressure from FSN North to put LNP in the field after a month of Bert making fart jokes and not so subtle references about Breamer’s first name is he same as a certain slang word for male genitalia just to fill the time. And who else besides Redmond is Breamer going to cheer for during the game.
The hitting doesn’t look like it will be as good as it was at the start of 2007. They sure won’t score runs like they did in 2006 (801), but the hitting is more than adequate. It’s all about the young starters. How good are they?
Punto and Everett will help out the young pitchers. Gardy just recently mentioned how important it will be to provide good fielding behind those young pitchers. He was discussing the 2B job. I really worry about Lamb at 3B. They should try out Tolbert and Harris over there.
I knew that Williams was with the organiation last season, I guess I didn’t every realize that he finished the season in AAA.
The Twins will be lucky to finish above the KC Royals.
I read through a lot of this and see a lot of .500 talk, and playoff talk from a couple of people. Is there an 800 number for thse people to call. They need help, and we should give it to them.
What is the biggest part of a winning baseball team? The Rotation.
What is the Biggest weakness on this team? The Rotation.
What is the most overrated position in major league baseball now? The Closer!
This team isn’t going to come close to .500 this year.
Bonser, Baker, Liriano, Slowey, Blackburn, Humber… none of those pitchers have pitched 200 innings in the bigs before. Guerrier is as likely to hit 200 innings with this rotation as anyone in the rotation. Mind you I did forget about Livan Hernandez… I don’t see him as the answer… just an inning eater, and the question is does he eat 175-200 innings like he eats dinner? Very well, or does he slop a 5.25 ERA down with those innings?
Gomez has a huge upside, but to expect more than a .250-.260 BA from him this year is asking a lot for the kid.
And this team still has Nick Punto, and that’s good for atleast 150 out in 170 plate appearances, throw in a couple of double plays, and the man getting picked off first, or thrown out trying to stretch a groundout to the shortstop into a single with those headfirst dives… I think Punto’s good for 20 losses on the roster. His bat is where ralleys go to die… and his glove is as overrated as the owner’s wallet is tight!
I was impressed by this team this spring… really impressed. And I am still sticking with 68-72 wins as the likely end result.
This division is not like the Wild’s division. The Tigers might be the best team in baseball, and the Indians are going to be great this year. The White Sox have Kenny Williams (the baseball equivalent of Kevin McHale), and the Royals have a AAA roster so we could finish 3rd, but that could still put us with the 4th worst record in the American League depending on how the Royals, Rangers, and Orioles do… all three of those teams are remarkably worse than the Twins, but if we are lucky we beat the White Sox too. Anything beyond that is a gonga trip, and that’s still highly illegal kids.
The twins will be OK because they will pitch and play defense like every twins team in the gardy and TK era’s. Will we finish above .500? if we stay healthy yes. If we lose any of the 2-5 guys in our line-up out offense could suck. No matter what though we’ll finish above KC
The Twins will go 92-70 and miss the playoffs.
Get out the stone and set the numbers son.
I can’t agree that the closer is the most overrated position. It depends on the team. I know lots of teams feel that their missing ingredient is a quality closer. Remember the Twins with Ron Davis as the closer? Then Pohlad bought the team and was praised for spending big bucks to sign Jeff Reardon. That Twins team usually only had one quality starter. In 1987 they had two - Viola and Bert. The offense kept them in the hunt and the team proved you only really need two good starting pitchers to go deep in the playoffs.
Ron Davis was in a different Era.
Look up the stats. How many times has Joe Nathan come into games with runners on base? The man comes into the 9th inning without any runners on 99% of the time. His ERA, and runs allowed numbers are amazing, but they are also a bit doctored by the fact that he is never under any added stress. It’s all about 3 outs.
Mariano Rivera on the other hand pitches to 4-5-6 outs at least 5 times a season.
So I agree it depends on the team,
But on this one… they just paid 11.25 million for a closer that they aren’t going to need to use, nor is exactly a key element to this team’s bullpen. Guerrier and Neshak are more valuable because they are the guys coming into the fire. Rincon is more damning than a bad closer because he’s the guy that Gardy will bring in to a game with 1 out in the fifth and a 1 run lead, and gives up a 2 run homer.
In our era we need to compare Ron Davis to Juan Rincon, not Joe Nathan… and Guerrier to Rollie Fingers, or Sparkey Lyle… not Joe Nathan. Joe Nathan is just our 9th inning guy, not a true FIREMAN. And don’t get me wrong, he’s an amazing pitcher, and an even better person, but for what this team has, and what it needs, and what Nathan provides… he is a further sign that Gardy and Smith might very well not be the best people for their jobs.
I hope the Twins finish above .500 for the 2nd half of the year. I think that will be possible. I’m just looking forward to watching baseball again. Bring it on!
Coco…
I am just looking forward to real baseball again as well, but I don’t expect this team to be comepetetive, or .500 at all this season.
I just want to see improvement, and growth, and not too many terrible slumps, or major injuries.
I don’t ever want to watch a season like last year. I don’t care if we lose 100 games this year, if I see this team get shut out that many times again this year and no one joins me asking for Vavra’s termination I think I will lose about 90% of my respect for Twins fans. The failures slip off of him like it’s teflon, and he gets credit for the great 2006 season.
Punto, the shutouts, the lack of hitting and running, the lack of power, the fact that everyone except Hunter had a down year last year says that either 2006 was a fluke and Vavra gets no credit, or Vavra just isn’t the answer… I will be counting the times the Twins are shutout this season, and who shut them out.
That’s the one thing I want to see fixed this season… I expect the pitchign staff to be between inconsistant, and intollerable all season, but that offense better not sputter like it did last season!
repeat after me….”wild card” –no waiting for 09 or new stadium for this team…..break camp and lets get at it next week one game at a time…..the metrodome will be rockin again this year…
68 to 70 wins.
maybe no starting pitcher with a .500 record.
but I’m not complaining… I’m looking forward to 2010 when this team is going to be pretty good.
The “closer is overrated” theory must not be highly regarded by the Red Sox. Otherwise, the Sox would not have “wasted” Jon Papelbon at closer when he was one of most promising young STARTING PITCHERS in baseball.
But, what the hell do the Red Sox know about winning championships?
They just won two by flying in the face of a theory which is advocated by stat geeks all over the blogs.
Cmat,
C. Gomez was never ranked a top 10 baseball prospect anywhere I ever read, please link anything where it says that. I’d like to see where it was so I can avoid that site or publication. BA had him at 61 in 2007, well behind Garza. Not to be found in 2006 or 2008. Most other, less known scouting sites I’ve seen him stay generally between the 60’s and 80’s.
I’m not saying he wasn’t one of the Mets top prospects, but they aren’t loaded with prospects and he wasn’t ever their best outfield prospect. And calling him one of the Twins best prospects is saying almost nothing. You mean, he is better than Parmalee, Moses and, and Plouffe?? WOW!
So, again, until someone shows me otherwise, he is and has always been a good, not great prospect.
Maybe you have him confused with Carlos Gonzalez.
C Gomez
J Sickels not high on him.
Scout.com didn’t have him in top 100 in 2006, but did have him at #13 in 2007, not too shabby, still below Garza.
I’ve looked pretty much everywhere I know. I’ll have to assume you made this “top 10 prosepct in baseball overall.” up.
I see C Gonzalez in the top 10 everywhere thouhg, that has to be it.
Sy,
Comparing this Twins squad and the Red Sox is laughable.
Also if you saw the Red Sox approach to closer before Papplebon, you’d have been desperate for an answer as well… especially if you could afford to spend 110 million a 3rd starter like they did last year.
I think the Twins will win somewhere between 75-80 games this year…and if things happen to fall into place they may push .500…I think they will be a third place team because Kansas City and Chicago are just not very good at the moment. KC is starting to come around, but Chicago is fading and will continue to do so.
This team will score runs at a clip better than last year…and the staff will also give up more. The bullpen will win a lot of games this year. I think this is a realistic position.
This team will look really, really good at times…and at times look a bit overmatched, especially with some of these young starters. Right now they are building toward opening the new ballpark with an exciting team ready to fight for an AL Central crown.
I don’t think Gomez is a great (meaning a near can’t miss prospect) prospect but he has some very solid skills that COULD equate to quite a bit of success at the ML level. He is a great defender, has great speed and a great arm…things you can’t teach a player. If he can learn plate discipline…he will be a very dangerous all around player. Those are big IFs but it will be interesting to see how he does this year.
BC,
If closers were so easy to replace, the Sox could have traded for one, developed one, or just sent a washed-up setup man out there.
Instead they wasted a tremendous talented starting pitcher prospect in Jon Papelbon who could have helped them in a “crucial position”.
Obviously they didn’t get your memo about how “closers are overrrated”.
The Red Sox apparently had their heads up their -sses then and still do.
Papelbon can still be restored to the starting rotation but the Sox are stupid AND stubborn. He is still an insignificant and easily replaceable closer, and no plans to convert him.
Someday, someway they may see the light.
I will stand behind Mathewson on this one… while I think he may have been wrong on this… the man knows more about baseball than most of the people I’ve seen online in any sphere… so when he’s speaking he knows what he’s talking about.
And no he and I are not friends, and no, he usually doesn’t agree with me, but I still respect him a hell of a lot… so ease up on him.
Cmat is a great Twins blogger. In this case he is either intentionally misleading or is simply mistaken. I would ease up, but I’m just defending my point that he took issue with.
In this case I am as tired of how fast “GoGo” has become overrated around here as he is tired of defending the claim he was once one of the greatest prospects of all time.
Okay, now I’M exaggerating.
Let’s all say it together.
AAA in May.
We must hold onto something, he is the “crown jewel” from the Santana heist. LOL
I’d rather hold judgment until after he plays a bit at the ML level. I think we can all agree that minor league prospect numbers don’t mean a damn thing if the guy can’t produce in the majors. There are too many examples to list.
Sy…
You have a major attitude problem.
A closer on the Twins is a waste of money! When your team won’t win many games, why spend 11 million?
They have 50 pitching prospects in the minors, and I think now would be a good time to try to develop a couple of them so they have one by 2010 when they really need one.
So drop the freaking attitude with me…
Again like I said, the Red Sox had problems with the closer spot for the last 7 years before Papplebon… and if you have a major problem you fix it… they had a team that could make the playoffs, but not get out of them because of their closer. So they are in a different situation, and in all intents and purposes a different league than the Twins are in 2008… so get your thrills trying to slame me with if you like, you’re still wrong… so what’s it matter?
BC,
I disagree with the overrated closer theory as do the Red Sox.
If I slammed you, it was not intentional.
If I have slammed any blogger, I plead lack of restraint which I will attempt to exercise in the future.
My bad!
These discussions are so amusing.
Well, let’s see. According to the comments, the Twins will finish somewhere between first and last, and the CF is either a top-10 prospect who can’t miss or a top-100 prospect who will be back in AAA by May. Also, our offense and pitching is either better or worse than last year. Have I got it right so far?
Let’s face it you guys. We don’t know what’s going to happen with this team. There are too many new faces, and too many pitchers for whom one myre year of experience might make a big improvement from last year. I think it will be an interesting year, and I appreciate very much that the Twins kept one guy who is nothing BUT interesting (Gomez) and re-signed another guy who I hope we see a lot of (Nathan), because it means we are winning.
This ‘08 squad may finish a very similar 79-83 like in ‘07 but at least it will be more fun to watch them participate in 6-5 type games compared to all the 5 - 2 losses last year.
For those of you complaining about Baseball Prospectus’ ranking or non-ranking of Carlos Gomez, need I remind you that in 1998 they had Luis Rivas listed as the #1 Twins prospect, IN FRONT OF David Ortiz.
Like any stock analyst will tell you, “past performance is not an indicator of future success.” Sorry folks, it’s just not as simple as scouting, or else there wouldn’t be so many has-been rejects from MLB.
Gomez could tank ultimately, or he could be amazing. Or he could be somewhere in between. If you’re a real fan, you hope he ends up being a huge contributor. Time will tell.
By the way, the Vikes have “Skol Vikings.” Does anyone know if the Twins have a nice old fight song like that? And don’t give me the “We’re Gonna Win Twins” answer. That is on the same level musically as the Icky Shuffle.
Go Twins!
There are more people excited about Gomez then I thought there would be, but I still see a lot of naysayers though. I’ve got a few friends that are hard core Mets fans and I’ve been hearing about this guy for over a year.
The popular consensus on Gomez is that he was rushed through the Mets system and needs to spend more time at AAA for seasoning. While it was true he was rushed, it was not without merit.
At each level he has played at he has started out over his head and didn’t merely play poorly, he stunk the place up. But at each level, he made adjustments and made huge improvements. Add in his speed and defense and it’s easy to understand why the Mets coaching staff was so willing to move him up to the next level by the end of each season.
But when you add the stunk the place up months with the tear it up up months, the end result is season stats that don’t really leap out at you and scream total stud.
Last year, he got the call when Wright or Beltran got hurt (I don’t remember which). It was the same pattern: he stunk the place up, then got better. The last month before he broke a bone in his hand he was batting .310, but add in the stunk the place up numbers and his overall average was something like .244.
While one month of hitting .310 may not prove that he CAN hit at the major league level, it certainly proves he is CAPABLE of doing it.
And, once again, there is his speed. In the short time I’ve been watching him closely, he has done amazing things. Barely a week ago, he was hitting something like .140 and leading the entire team in runs and stolen bases.
And now he’s hitting.
This kid is the real deal. He has all the tools and will be a fan favorite and a star by the end of the season. He’s made most of the adjustments he’s needed to make to be successful at the major league level - he just hasn’t had a full season to prove it yet. The fact that he’s made the team over two older and more experienced players (three, if you count Monroe) means Gardy is seeing the same things the Mets staff saw when they moved him up.
Another thing I’ve noticed … he seems to be getting on base early on and floundering later. Even the one game he went 0 for 3 in, in his first at bat, he ran out the relay on what looked like a routine double play (then stole 2nd, stole 3rd and scored a run). It looks to me like he may be working on stuff and trying new things before the season starts. You know, get a hit or two, then try a few things. It could be nothing, but that is the impression I’m getting. If that is even partially true … it just boggles the mind to think about.
This kid is going to score a lot of runs and I would rather see him do it at the dome, then down at AAA.
The Twins should be pretty hard to handle for opposing teams this year, but we need to avoid significant DL time for sure. Mauer and Morneau are rock solid, and Cuddyer and Delmon are both above average offensive players. Delmon should get better than he was last year and 100 RBI’s doesn’t look to be out of the question.
Carlos Gomez got better as spring training went along. Yeah, the first week and a half he didn’t do much. Then the “Big” league pitchers started taking the mound, he worked hard with Vavra and cranked it up. He isn’t gonna walk much, but he has the ability to get a bunt in play seemingly at will, as well as pound the ball into the gaps. Honestly he looks just awesome. Even if he only hits .260 he’ll have a huge impact, but I guess the bunt singles are gonna push him a bit higher than that.
Lamb, Harris and Monroe are all upgrades over what we had last year and I really doubt Everett will be much worse with the bat than Bartlett.
Our starting pitching is a big question mark, but it has been for the last couple years. No one thought Silva was going to be good last year. Garza has never shown any more ability than Pat Maholmes did.
Last year Baker was our #2 starter as far as I was concerned and he’s coming back. Everytime he took the mound there was a chance something special would happen, can’t say I felt the same about Silva or Garza. Liriano was pretty darn good when he last played real games as well. To me the worst case is Liriano not being quite as good as Santana, Baker continuing to get better and Livan more than replacing Silva. If Boof or Blackburn or whoever sreps up, bonus! The Bullpen might be the best in the game.
The Twins haven’t had a bad year since 2000, and I really doubt they’ll have a bad year this year. They would’ve finished above .500 last year if not for the cloud Santana and Hunter were keeping the team under. Everyone seemed more worried about them than playing, never mind that Johan said all his teammates were not good enough in mid-August. After which the Twins really went in the tank. Never mind that Santana lost a ton of divisional games last year and had 5 losses/ 0 Wins against Cleveland. Yeah, thats worth 22 million per year……..
Interesting projected lineup. I’d think Harris would hit in front of Lamb as opposed to the other way around.
I’m excited to watch this team, because it’s young…and from the last few contracts they’ve worked out there’s a good chance the talented youngsters will be able to grow together.
Not to mention I really want to see Young and Gomez.
If nothing else, they’ll be able to pick it; at least the balls that stay in the park. That’ll be good for Blackburn, potentially. But, the pitchers are really going to have to take Anderson’s advice to heart, over the plate and low or they’ll get cricks in their neck from trying to track the big flies. The hitting should be fun to watch develop, especially Young and Gomez. If Mauer reverts to form and stays healthy, it’s an interesting lineup.
