Revisiting some names from the Santana trade talks
Posted on April 22nd, 2008 – 1:33 PMBy Joe Christensen
I must have written Jed Lowrie’s name 25 times last winter, when tracking the Johan Santana trade discussions. Who knows how serious the Red Sox were about actually trading him to the Twins?
We have since heard that while the Red Sox offered CF Jacoby Ellsbury and LHP Jon Lester in separate packages, the offers dropped off quickly if either one of them were included. In other words, the Twins could have had Ellsbury or Lester, but we’re not so certain they could have had Ellsbury, Lowrie and RHP Justin Masterson, just as they couldn’t have had Lester, Lowrie and Masterson.
This is why we often heard the words “moving parts” associated with Boston’s offers.
Anyway, I saw Lowrie play a few times during spring training and wasn’t overly impressed. But he is off to a good start since being promoted from Class AAA Pawtucket to help fill the void left when 3B Mike Lowell sprained his left thumb. Lowrie is batting .375 (6-for-16), and through six games, he has played second base, third base and shortstop. Here’s an excerpt from a recent Nick Cafardo column in the Boston Globe.
Lowrie is a switch hitter who is being compared to former Red Sox batting champion Bill Mueller. He’s even heard comparisons to Baltimore second baseman Brian Roberts, though he doesn’t appear to have Roberts’s speed. He says he’s a natural righthanded hitter but doesn’t favor either side. In fact he made a point to say every day he comes to the park he feels a little different with his hitting.
Every now and then, it’ll be fun to check in on some of those names from the Santana Winter. To be clear, I am not drawing any conclusions now. I realize these sample sizes are ridiculously small. But it’s interesting to see how they’ve started 2008 after all that hype:
Melky Cabrera: .281-.358-.456 (3 HR, 7 RBI, 3 SB for the Yankees)
Phil Hughes: 0-3, 8.82 ERA (4GS, 10 K, 10 BB for the Yankees)
Ian Kennedy: 0-2,9.64 ERA (4 GS, 13 K, 13 BB for the Yankees)
These two RHPs are part of the reason Hank Steinbrenner had his latest rant about inserting Joba Chamberlain into the starting rotation.
Jacoby Ellsbury: 277-.444-.404 (1 HR, 7 RBI, 8 SB for the Red Sox)
Jon Lester: 1-2, 5.06 ERA (5 GS, 15 K, 17 BB for the Red Sox)
Justin Masterson: 1-0, 0.95 (4 GS, 23 K, 5 BB for Class AA Portland)
Jed Lowrie: .375-.389-.563 (6 G with the Red Sox. He was batting just .160 when promoted from Pawtucket.)
And, finally, the four players the Twins actually obtained for Santana:
Carlos Gomez: .244-.262-.329 (0 HR, 5 RBI, 9 SB for the Twins)
Philip Humber: 0-2, 5.09 ERA (4 GS, 10 K, 9 BB for Class AAA Rochester)
Kevin Mulvey: 2-1, 1.02 ERA (3 GS, 20 K, 3 BB for Class AAA Rochester)
Deolis Guerra: 2-0, 1.42 ERA (4 G, 3 GS, 15 K, 9 BB for Class A Fort Myers)
Almost forgot the man himself:
Johan Santana: 2-2, 3.25 ERA (4GS, 28 K, 4 BB for the Mets. I’m going to go out on a limb and say this guy has some potential!)
80 Responses to "Revisiting some names from the Santana trade talks"
Thanks Joe
Good stuff Joe at first glance it looks like we got a better deal from the Mets but i would bet that by the time the seasons over that Red Sox offer will look the best but not much better then what we got from the Mets.
Funny how Johan got blasted after his home debut. He’s going to see that alot in NY! And even though it’s early, all those stats for the 4 guys the Twins got (Humber will be better) are better than most of the rest of them. And Santana is 2-2, Livan is 3-0. Maybe we won’t miss him so much
JA
Humber might be better but he is pitching in AAA. Hughes and Kennedy both will have better numbers by the end of the season. The one name that wasn’t mentioned is the guy the Twins should have gone after: Clay Buchholtz.
I agree that you’ll have to wait at least 3 years before you can look back and say, “Wow the Twins really f’d up that trade”. But you will be able to say that eventually.
I don’t know if Livan will make us not miss Joan, but that’s not really going out on a limb.
Comparing the current stats of these players vs. what we got from the Mets is a fun exercise but if, for example, Hughes and Kennedy were pitching for the Twins without Hank Steinbrenner and the NY Media breathing down their necks after every start, their numbers would surely be much better.
I’ve said from the beginning that I thought the rumors that the yankee’s and redsox pulled out of the Santana race were untrue.
I’ve believed since the day of the trade that the twins thought that the trade value of what the mets offered was ultimately higher because the player with the most potential ever mentioned in the Santana trade was Guerra.
I believe and I would assume the twins believe that Guerra’s upside is greater than all the names mentioned in this article!!!
Here’s Hopen that that’s correct!!
I am going to watch F-Mart tonight, we’ll see how he does.
F-mart??
Shameless
You must have really followed those trades talk closely. Why didn’t Joe put F-Mart’s stats up there too? Or how about Pelfrey?
AA Mets playing AA Yanks, what level where some of the other Yanks prospects? Tabata, etc…
FMart: Fernando Martinez
.256 - .294 - .372 at AA, 6 doubles/1HR/6RBI’s
4 walks/21 K’s
F-mart is considered the big star to the local sports guys….. god i hate living in such a small town
Tabata .216 - .318 - .257 at AA
3 doubles/8RBI’s 8BB/13Ks
A few thoughts:
Jacoby Ellsbury is two years older than Carlos Gomez. He’s a very solid player, a good leadoff hitter, decent OF. Gomez is not really a leadoff hitter who is batting leadoff now, but has far more potential, much better base stealer and I would say a little better OF.
Fernando Martinez is a very good prospect and very young. He has done pretty much nothing at AA this year, but he’ll be good. However, he isn’t a CF and the Twins needed a CF. Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, Justin Morneau and Delmon Young are all going to be around for at least the next three years, so he wasn’t as much of a fit as Gomez.
Pelfrey’s been solid in a couple of starts so far, but do we know he was on the table? Do we know it was Humber or Pelfrey? What if it was Pelfrey OR Humber and Guerra?
We just don’t know. I think that the Twins did very well with this trade. It’s also important to remember that Johan starts one in five games. Having him maybe means 2-3 games in the standings in 2008, if that. It’s always better to trade a guy too soon than not soon enough.
thanks Funky, will keep on the lookout for those two guys
Jose Tabata and Austin Jackson are both struggling at AA too. Alberto Gonzalez is a utility guy with the Yankees right now. He was called up when Jeter was hurt.
Pelfrey 2-0 3.18 ERA 17IP 20 H/ 6BB/9K
I heard the Mets wouldn’t give up Pelfrey, just like they wouldn’t give up F-Mart, but who knows how accurate that was.
Austin Jackson
.288 - .402 - .370
four doubles/one triple/one RBI, 14 bb/11k’s 4-5 stolen bases
thanks for the info fellas…. i didn’t know how many of them reched AA
Livan’s job is to be a cheaper Silva, and thus far he’s done just that.
And WOW on Kennedy and Hughes (and Lester for that matter). Could you imagine how rabid some fans would be if any of those guys were doing that for the Twins following the trade?
Cabrera’s doing well, though that would’ve left the Twins still without a leadoff man (unless Harris or Tolbert could have done it…but who would’ve thought at the time that Tolbert would’ve done as well as he has?)
Ellsbury looks like a slight improvement over Gomez (is there a # of ABs to include in there?…and I’m curious as to where he hits in that lineup comparred to Gomez leading off)
And Mulvey looks like an up and comer…quite possibly this season.
Nice to see that the Twins made an educated decision, and thus far are better off than they could’ve been.
Seth
That’s the thing we don’t know who was offered. We don’t even know if the Yanks or Red Sox actually offered any of the guys that are listed. Those names were thrown out and one time or another though so that is why I brought them up. Good point about Martinez being a corner OF. The thing is when he is ready is right about when I think the Twins should be kicking Cuddyer to the curb. The Twins have other options for CF. They could have signed Lofton if Span wasn’t ready.
F-Mart will be with the Mets by the end of this year
Here’s an interesting point made in an article about the play Gomez made on Sunday.
“You look out there and you’re like, ‘Man, that ball’s going to fall,”’ first baseman Justin Morneau said. “All of a sudden, he just came out of nowhere and he hung onto it. It was huge.”
This is exactly what Minnesota needed from the only one of four prospects acquired from the Mets in the Johan Santana trade who made the roster for opening day, especially considering the hole left in center and the heart of the order by the departure of Hunter and his seven Gold Glove awards.
The 22-year-old Gomez, who appeared in 58 games last year for New York, doesn’t have Hunter’s power, but he has brought an elite level of a unique skill to the top of the Twins lineup.
Speed, and plenty of it.
I am sold on Gomez, growing pains, potential trip to AAA and all. My girl even named our new puppy Gomez.
The Red Sox said from the beginning at Clay Buckholz was “off limits” just like the Yankees said with Joba…
“The 22-year-old Gomez, who appeared in 58 games last year for New York, doesn’t have Hunter’s power, but he has brought an elite level of a unique skill to the top of the Twins lineup.
Speed, and plenty of it.”
And that’s about ALL he brings to this team. Look at Ellsbury. He has 8 stolen bases on the year - 1 shy of Gomez. Is he as fast as Gomez? No chance. But he is getting on base at a .444 clip. Of course, he isn’t going to keep that up over the entire year. And Gomez isn’t going to OBP .262 for an entire season - I hope.
If Gomez doesn’t make that catch, who knows what happens in that game. Of course, he also went 0-5 in that game. Does Ellsbury make that play? Probably not. Does Ellsbury go 0-5? Probably not.
I agree that you’ll have to wait at least 3 years before you can look back and say, “Wow the Twins really f’d up that trade”. But you will be able to say that eventually.
Huh? It’s not like they had much choice but to trade him. So you have to compare hypothetical offers to the one they took (and, draft picks). Neither the Sox nor the Yankees made a real offer. Names were discussed, medical files were exchanged. No formal package was offered. Even comparing the hypothetical offers to what the Twins got, it’s hardly clear that the Twins passed up better options than the one they took.
I don’t think you’ll ever be able to say it, nor will you want to. Gomez will be the starting center fielder for at least six years, barring injury. Mulvey and Guerra will be in the rotation for that long. And Humber will be a key guy in the bullpen for that long. That’s 24 years of quality cheap players for one year of a great guy plus a couple of draft picks. I don’t see how that could possibly be a screwed up trade.
“Gomez will be the starting center fielder for at least six years, barring injury. Mulvey and Guerra will be in the rotation for that long. And Humber will be a key guy in the bullpen for that long. That’s 24 years of quality cheap players for one year of a great guy plus a couple of draft picks. I don’t see how that could possibly be a screwed up trade.”
That’s a lot of assumptions there. Gomez MAY be the CF for 6 years, unless he doesn’t improve at the plate. Assuming that Mulvey and Guerra are going to give you 6 years in the starting rotation is a pretty big assumption, as is Humber being in the bullpen for that long. Twins fans should know as well as any team that pitching prospects don’t always pan out, even with good minor league numbers.
And Santana is 2-2, Livan is 3-0. Maybe we won’t miss him so much
Example #672 why comparing pitchers using wins and losses is ridiculous.
because some people still hold on to the thinking santana wanted to stay which was not the case it’s over we have who we have. move on santana may blow out his arm any time may win 5 more cy youngs but he was gone no matter what.
In 3 years I hope we’ll finally be done talking about this.
Good Day to all:
I think the lesson of the Santana saga is this: Do not give full no-trade clauses. Ever. The Mets did, along with 137 mill guaranteed, and methinks they will live to regret that as much as the $$.
I did follow the Santana trade thing closely, however I didn’t join the league of pompous bloggers until after the trade jama!!
F-mart as you call him was never on the table and the mets made that clear from the beginning!
Besides all that why would anyone want him at this point he’s done nothing in the minors!!
People never talk about his stats just his talent….like Gomez.
Since were playing Oakland tonight does anyone know who they got for Zito if anything at all?
Fun stats, but far too early to judge. Go-Bot is a first time starter in the bigs. Who knows what the potential is for three pitchers? Johan didn’t just magically appear in his prime from day 1.
All stats considered Ellsbury may be putting up better numbers but the defense Gomez has been giving the Twins has been phenomenal and Gogo shall get even better as he matures.
Bucholz was never an option. He was untouchable.
When does Guerra move to AA if he keeps up his Hi-A numbers? He does seem to walk alot of guys though.
I have no idea what the answer is, but how does anyone KNOW that gogomez will get better?
As for the pitchers, most never pitch more than a year in the majors, no matter how talented they appear (either due to injury or just not being as good as they appear in the minors), so projecting that 3 pitchers that have never pitched in the majors for the Twins will each pitch 6 years is bold, very bold.
I would guess Guerra would make the jump after about 15-18 starts if keeps up the good numbers. The thing that works in his favor is he has pitched in the FCL for two years already. If he hadn’t the twins wouldn’t make a quick move with a kid that young.
Charles Hudson,
I couldn’t agree more, whenever I look at those contracts that Santana and Hunter got I just thank God we didn’t waste that money. I think both teams will regret giving such long contracts to those guys. Especially the Angels. Santana is still on the right side of 30 at least.
As for the pitchers, most never pitch more than a year in the majors, no matter how talented they appear
Where did you get that? Pitchers of Mulvey’s and Guerra’s quality rarely have so short of careers, unless they are derailed by injury. Mulvey is a better prospect than Baker, Bonser, Slowey or Blackburn were. Guerra is a better prospect than Mulvey, though his ultimate status is less certain because of his age and relative inexperience.
The prediction (not assumption) may be bold. But when was the last failed pitching prospect of this level in the Twins organization? Do you even remember? I’ll tell you. It was Adam Johnson. I won’t count JD Durbin because he’s past the one-year point in his major league career. Philip Humber is a better prospect than either of those guys ever were, and Mulvey and Guerra are ahead of him.
Thanks half-chest. Allowing full NTC’s for that length of time and amount of money is close to sheer stupidity. I’d love to have Johan with the Twins, but not at the cost of never, ever, being able to move him. Just goes to show that some franchises are better able to absorb inane contracts than others. I prefer the Twins way. It’s so much more real. Go Twins!
Gomez is going to be a stud player. If you don’t believe it, you haven’t played or watched the game enough. He has star potential written all over him. He will be an all star by 2010.
He already is making spectacular plays. He has the ability to drive the ball, although he needs work on the breaking balls. He could hit .250, just by being able to hit infield grounders and bunts.
This kid is going to drive opponent pitchers and defenses nuts. Can you imagine playing 3rd base against Gomez in a couple of years when he has added some muscle and discipline to go along with a power swing?
Think Vladie Guerro with the ability to bunt. Care to stand 75 feet away? Ouch.
Methinks that the Mets are going to regret this trade big time by 2010, just by losing Gomez. And then add to that when the other guys start contributing.
Who will be the first person to make a comment about firing Vavra…My guess is gobbledygookguy.
“Think Vladie Guerro with the ability to bunt. Care to stand 75 feet away? Ouch.”
WHAT? Come on. Comparing Gomez to Vlad Guerrero is a bit of a stretch. Actually, it’s a huge stretch. Gomez has a career slugging percentage of .399 in the minors. That doesn’t come close to Vlad’s .584. Plus, Guerrero put up and OBP that was 60 points higher in the minors. Gomez may become special, like you seem to think, but to compare him to Vlad Guerrero is just silly.
Also - Gomez hasn’t shown the ability to bunt yet.
Mulvey has looked damn sharp. I see him as a Baker type pitcher someday soon. I really hope Humber can come around. He was a can’t miss superstar in the making until his Tommy John surg. We say it all the time about Liriano, Humber had Liriano type stuff. He didn’t throw as hard but had a NASTY curve and slider. Guerra looks good he’ll be ready by 2010 i’d say. I think this will be a good trade even if Gomez can’t ever be a great hitter.
All I can add to this without being too bitter about how badly I wanted Ellsbury and Lowrie here… is that Carlos Gomez has shown me more in flashes of his brilliance than I’ve seen from any Twins player since Kirby when he was a rookie.
I’m not saying that Gomez is as polished, or that he will ever be the professional hitter that Knoblauch was, and he may never be the captain of the team like Hunter, but when it comes to that IT factor… the boy has it times 5, and I will take Ellsbury over him for what this team needs now, and in the near future as a leadoff hitter, and as a centerfielder, but other than Gomez not paying attention to where he throws… he has been every bit as good of a CF so far as Hunter, and that is not downplaying Hunter. Gomez is a far better prospect than I ever gave Bill Smith credit for. He’s going to take time. Most latin ball players do. Not a lot of Pujols and Guerrero type guys anywhere ever…
Would I still take the Red Sox deal if it were those three guys, Masterson, Ellsbury, and Lowrie over what the Twins got from the Mets. Yes, and without a moment’s hesitation, but just because I believe I was right, doesn’t mean Bill Smith may have been all that wrong. Know what I mean?
And Livan Hernandez is the second coming of Doyle Alexander at this point. T you were right, his job was to be a cheap innings eater. He’s done his job, and if he keeps this up, and we don’t end up in the playoffs (which I don’t expect we will come close)… he could bring us something quite nice at the trade deadline.
The way I look at it, the Twins got three top-10 overall first-round draft choices and a second round pick for Santana. Mulvey was a second rounder. Humber was a number 3 overall pick. And if Gomez and Guerra were in the US in high school, they would have been top-10 overall picks.
If they had kept Santana, they would have received a late first rounder and a sandwich pick in 2009, similar to their compensation for Hunter in this year’s draft. And those were their only two viable options after Baby Boss tampered with the proceedings at the winter meetings.
It’s a bonus that the players they got are farther along than any draft picks would be, and will be ready to make major contributions when this team matures in 2009 and beyond.
Mathewson-
I see your point, and it’s an easy way to see it as a huge positive.
I also agree with the Hankees comment.
but the question is: did the twins get the best players?
Are the 4 players we got better than if we could have agotten Ellsbury, Lowrie and Masterson?
It’s more hypothetical because the more I read the more the Red Sox were not going to give up Ellsbury unless we threw something else in with Santana.
If the Red Sox offered Ellsbury, Lowrie Masterson, and Kahlish, it would have been better than the package the Mets offered. If the Yankees had offered Hughes, Cabrera and Kennedy, it would have been better. But I don’t think those offers were ever on the table. I think both the Yankees and Red Sox got cold feet when they talked to Santana’s agent and realized what he was asking for (initially, $28 million a year for seven years).
Then I think Hank basically spoiled the milk by publicly saying what his boundaries were. If Hank wouldn’t pull the deal, the Red Sox felt no need to do it either. So the Twins left the winter meetings with the Mets offer or nothing and tried to get Minaya to sweeten the deal without any leverage until Santana called the game.
Under the circumstances, I’m kind of amazed that Smith did as well as he did. And Santana still came within an eyelash of killing the deal anyway. I’m counting my blessings.
“Ellsbury looks like a slight improvement over Gomez (is there a # of ABs to include in there?…and I’m curious as to where he hits in that lineup comparred to Gomez leading off)” — T
At least Ellsbury actually swings the bat… versus, say, just trying to bunt all the time.
it’s dangerous to open up a conversation like this because there’s so many intangibles. if we thought we could win it all this year, we would for sure want a melky/hughes type package that would have an immediate impact. since we’re not in that situation, i would much rather roll the dice with the potential of gomez & guerra. who is to say those other trades were even on the table either? there have been a lot of conflicting stories…
Pete D…
“WHAT? Come on. Comparing Gomez to Vlad Guerrero is a bit of a stretch.”
I thought the Vlad line would get a reaction. Thanks Pete. This place is so full of hyperbole that it gets a bit nauseating.
Now, if you re-read my entry, it doesn’t compare Gomez to vlad in terms of hitting or slugging %. What it does predict is that Gomez is going to be able to pull the ball hard, like a vlad. After all, he is 6′4″ and like 185 now. He has a lot of room to put on some muscle and he certainly isn’t afraid to swing hard. The image you are supposed to get is that of a big, free swinging right handed batter capable of knocking the ball right through you or, in Gomez’ case to bunt the ball.
“Gomez hasn’t shown the ability to bunt yet.”
He was leading the league in bunt hits. Not a bad start for someone who can’t bunt.
The Twinks got a ton of talent for Santana but ultimately the trade is about Guerra being the best pitching prospect available. Better than anyone the Yanks or Redsox OFFERED!
Obviously if Bucholts or Chamberlain would have been offered that changes everything.
People please get off Ellsbury’s jock!
Carlos G -
I guess I don’t share the same optimism that you do on the amount of muscle he is going to put on, but I can’t argue that he swings hard. I just wish he could make contact more frequently.
“He was leading the league in bunt hits. Not a bad start for someone who can’t bunt.”
As for this - that’s because he bunts EVERY SINGLE TIME. I have no idea if this can even be researched, but I would wager a guess that he also leads the league in failed bunt attempts. You’ve watched the games, I assume. You know he can’t bunt. It’s painful to watch. Someone with his speed should be able to lay it down whenever he wants.
After all is said and done, Jacoby Ellsbury will be 100 times the player is Ellsbury due to his plate maturity and comparable speed. Gomez, while electric, seems extremely raw, whereas Ellsbury has already shined at the highest level. In addition, he yanked out two home runs the night after swiping two bases. His multi-dimensional skillset would have been invaluable to a team that is going to suffer this season because of a horrendous offensive lineup (with the exception of Justin Morneau). Of course, if Humber/Mulvey develop, this changes the analysis.
When you look at the steals, keep in mind the amount of at bats compared to Gomez.
Gomez:
82AB
2BB
20K
.244 BA
.262 OBP
.591 OPS
9 SB
1 CS
Ellsbury:
52AB
13BB
5K
.308 BA
.456 OBP
.994 OPS
8 SB
0 CS
Pete D.
“Someone with his speed should be able to lay it down whenever he wants.”
Huh?
His speed should make him a better bunter?
I don’t understand.
Unless you mean, with his speed, he should be able to BUNT FOR A HIT more often.
who’s to saay the Twin’s f____up. Gomex will be a stud and two of the three pitchers will be solid.
too many disgruntled supposedly Twin’s fans!
Win Twins!
The Mets deal was the best deal. By far. I said it then and I still stand by it now. I also think that time will prove me right.
It’s also completely unfair to compare the numbers of Gomez and Ellsbury. Not at this point anyway - it’s too soon.
Ellsbury is 2 years older than Gomez and 2 years more experienced. Gomez made his major league debut last year at the age of 21. When Ellsbury was 21, he was just starting his professional career at low A ball for the Sox after three years of college ball.
Gomez’ stats are also misleading. While it’s true he was rushed through the Mets system, it wasn’t without merit. At each level he’s played at, he started out stinking the place up, then improving and finally finishing strong. Toss in his speed and defense and it’s easy to see why he was moved up vs being held back for more seasoning. But combine the sucky months with the tearing it up months and you’re left with seasonal stats that don’t scream total stud.
In his last month in the Mets last year before he broke his hand he hit .310. While that doesn’t prove he CAN hit in the majors it at the very least proves he’s CAPABLE of it.
And now he’s in a different league and also learning how to bunt. The kid has never been in one place long enough too really get comfortable and show what he really can do for a full season. He’s in a kind of odd situation where his stats haven’t really had the chance to catch up with his true talent.
In a nutshell, Ellsbury is very close to being about as good as he’ll ever get. Gomez is not even close.
Gomez is already quickly becoming a fan favorite and he will be well on his way to becoming a star before the end of the year. Enjoy those Gomez flashes of brilliance - you’ll be seeing a lot more of them, more often and you won’t have to wait very long for them either.
Ellsbury was also off the trade table almost as fast as he was put on it. I’m also convinced that the Sox were never really interested in trade as much as they wanted to get the Yankees to overpay. My feeling throughout the winter was any deal with the Sox was only out there as long as they thought the Twins would never take it. They certainly backed out in a hurry once the trade was going to finally take place.
Toss in the cash and the years the Mets had to give “what’s his name” and this deal could very well finally let the Giants off the hook on Pags for Nathan, Liriano and Boof.
Go go Gomez will be a great player in the Major Leagues for a long time to come……..When he gets over his inexperienced approach at the plate and gets on more often Look out Baseball”"”"”"”"”"”"”"”"”
In a nutshell, Ellsbury is very close to being about as good as he’ll ever get. Gomez is not even close.
How would you know that Ellsbury is close to being all he can be at this point? The kid didn’t even play a full year in the majors. Ellsbury is a fan favorite too and has a great attitude. Even though he is an excellent player you don’t hear him say that he is great.
If Gomez can get a better eye at the plate he should have around 50-70 steals by the end of this year. On a side note Howards blogs bore the bajesus out of me. Common sense Howard. He is so critical and negative of other people
Hmmm… did Jimmy Bee just crack the case? Sinker is Gleeman… Gleeman is Sinker!
In a nutshell, Ellsbury is very close to being about as good as he’ll ever get. Gomez is not even close.
sploorp, well said. i have no doubt ellsbury is going to be a good player. he has all the tools to have a good career. however, his potential and tools are not even in the same discussion as gomez’s. that’s why he’s so intriguing to watch…he could be a huge superstar or a complete flop; only time will tell!
but to throw out stats from the first 3 weeks of the regular season and debate who’s going to be better is pointless. let’s analyze the high school prospects of this summer’s draft while we’re at it
cmathewson
I got it from Roby Neyer and jayson stark. They both posted earlier this year about how well pitching prospects actually deliver at the MLB level.
Think about it, every team has some great pitching prospects, and every team has 5 starters at both AAA and AA, but how many new pitchers come up each year, and how many make an impact for more than a year or two? Not many, actually.
The odds of any particular pitcher currently in the minors actually having a career in the majors is pretty low.
Now, I’m actually hopeful about Mulvey and Guerra, but your prediction is bold given the history of injuries, flame outs, and flat out just not performing of pitchers.
It must be a good sign if we are actually comparing Gomez to Ellsbury. Gomez needs alot of Carew-like instruction…but I think he has a chance to be very good.
The odds of any particular pitcher currently in the minors actually having a career in the majors is pretty low.
The odds of a pitcher making it from the draft to the majors are pretty low. But it is higher the higher you go in the draft. ANd farther along in the minors a guy gets without being cut, the better the odds are of him making it to the majors. The odds of a successful AAA pitcher having success in the majors is pretty high.
Your claim was something like, “no matter how much ability he shows.” That’s just false. If a guy shows a lot of ability in AAA, odds are he’ll show a lot of ability in the majors, barring injury.
however, his potential and tools are not even in the same discussion as gomez’s
I wonder what gave you this impression. Do you watch Ellsbury playing everyday?
Gomez is not a major-league caliber hitter. I’m not sure he ever will be. Some people just don’t have the ability. He not only has a bad eye at the plate, it’s almost like he is blind at the plate. It’s too bad becuase he has lots of potential otherwise.
And I stick by my contention: no matter how much potential and ability they show. You can’t “bar injury”.
I’m looking for some stats, but I’ve found one page so far that states that 20% of the pitchers in the majors are on the DL at any given time. Now, it wasn’t clear from that site if that was just in 2007, or other years. Also, it stated that was just the pitchers there for elbow pain. 1 in 5 chance of missing time, or significant time.
I’ll find the odds, but I’m confident Stark and Neyer (and I) are right, doesn’t matter how good you are in the minors, your odds of actually starting for more than a year or two in the majors is low (you have a better chance if you are better in the minors, no doubt, but the odds are still low).
Did anyone see the comment in the Chicago papers that the Cubs called about Santana but were told he wasn’t interested? It was news to Santana, he never knew the Cubs had inquired and would have been willing to go there.
Were there any other teams interested that the Twins said NO to before talking to Johan? Could they have gotten more for him?
Gomez is in a slump. This is his second slump of the year. The last one lasted 10 at bats, and everyone said “send him down”. Then he hit in five straight games with two two-hit games and people stopped calling for his head. Let’s see how he adjusts to the slump before we start calling for his demotion.
According to the numbers, and the relative youth of the players involved…seeming like the Twins did as good as they could have. Sure, theres a guy or two that might have been “better”, but a couple other guys in those potential deals may have been less desirable than what they got…Too bad they couldn’t have gotten Joba or Jose Reyes, but I’m happy with Gomez, Mulvey and what could be a good pitcher in Guerra.
Gomez just went yard! Leadoff HR!
One month into a season is a bit early to look at who was missed in a trade and who was traded. And it becomes even sillier when you are talkin’ double AA players - even if they are doing well or bad, who knows what their major league future holds til they get three and play.
Cabrera, along with his decent bat, has played an excellent center field, chasing down ball in the gaps and catching them
[…] Strib writer Joe Christensen takes a look at the present-day stats of players named in potential Johan Santana trade talks (Ellsbury, Hughes, […]
