ESPN’s Buster Olney led his blog with a Johan Santana item Friday that had some folks buzzing in the Twins’ clubhouse.

Santana was not only a star pitcher in Minnesota, he was a gentleman. First-class all the way. On a personal level, nobody with the Twins wants to see him stumble, but there were some wide-eyed looks about this report. Olney’s blog requires a subscription, but here’s the part on Santana:

After the item on Johan Santana’s diminished velocity was posted here yesterday, some scouts from other teams chimed in, indicating through e-mails and phone calls that they were seeing the same thing. “The Mets were asking around about that in spring training, about what his true [velocity] baseline was,” one talent evaluator said. “They were concerned.”

Said an AL scout who has seen Santana this month: “His stuff isn’t even close to what it was [with the Twins].”

How much has his diminished stuff affected him? We have less than two months’ worth of starts to consider from 2008, a very small sample, and keep in mind that except for last season — when Santana suffered a significant statistical decline in the last six weeks — he has often done his best work in the second half.

With that said, here are the primary indicators:

• His ratio of strikeouts per nine innings over the past six seasons has been 11.38, 9.61, 10.46, 9.25, 9.44, 9.66. This year: 7.79.
• His strikeout-to-walk ratio over the past six seasons: 2.80, 3.60, 4.91, 5.29, 5.21, 4.52. This year: 3.87.
• Opponents’ OPS over the past six seasons: .607, .642, .564, .594, .616, .678. This year: .723.

As I wrote a lot about during the winter of Santana trade talks, rival talent evaluators saw a noticeable — not dramatic, but noticeable — decline in his stuff after his 17-strikeout performance against Texas on Aug. 19. He’s made 17 starts since then, and here are his primary numbers:

• Innings: 111
• Hits: 109
• Earned runs: 50
• Home runs: 20 (By comparison, Paul Byrd has allowed 21 during the same span)
• Walks: 28
• Strikeouts: 102
• ERA: 4.05

(Since the beginning of the 2007 season, Santana has allowed 44 home runs — most in the majors.)

Look, Santana is still obviously among the better pitchers in the game, and his remarkable ability to change speeds means that he probably is going to age better than a lot of his peers. He is smart, dedicated and seriously competitive, so if there is something to figure out and there are adjustments that can be made, he’ll get there.

This question remains: Will he be worth to the Mets what they will pay him over the duration of the contract? We’ll see.

But it’s probably not a good thing that rival scouts are seeing signs of diminishment fewer than two months into a seven-year deal.

My thoughts?

Hard to argue with the numbers, but I believe a scout saying Santana’s stuff isn’t even close to what it was in Minnesota is referring to the Santana of 2003-2006. The times I’ve seen him pitch this year — in spring training and on TV — he’s looked very similar to last year, by my estimation. His velocity was down a couple ticks last year, and as Olney notes, there was a slight drop after that 17-strikeout game.

Still, New York needs to give Johan the benefit of the doubt. Keep in mind, even in his best years, Santana was a slow starter who turned into Sandy Koufax by the All-Star break.

The Mets could come to regret the back end of that seven-year, $137.5 million contract, but Santana is only 29. I believe he has three or four All-Star-caliber years left in him, and I think he has enough pride, intelligence and skill to adjust to the inevitable decline, allowing him to remain a solid pitcher into his mid-30s.

If the Mets get a few seasons of dominance and a few seasons of Tom Glavine-esque craftiness, they won’t regret the contract. As for the trade itself, Carlos Gomez and Deolis Guerra will have a lot to say about that legacy.

Gomez, 22, already is an electricifying big league player. Phil Humber, 25, is 1-5 with a 5.89 ERA at Class AAA Rochester, and Kevin Mulvey (who turns 23 on Monday) has cooled for Rochester after a hot start, leaving him 2-6, with a 4.36 ERA. Guerra just turned 19 last month and he is 5-1 with a 4.56 ERA at Class A Fort Myers.

This entry was posted on Saturday, May 24th, 2008 at 11:36 am and is filed under Around MLB, Twins thoughts. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.