Who was the Twins’ MVP: Joe Mauer or Justin Morneau?
Posted on October 10th, 2008 – 2:02 PMBy Joe Christensen
I’ve been wrestling with this question off-and-on for weeks.
I had a Cy Young vote, not an MVP vote, so I didn’t go through the long process of picking my top 10 AL MVP choices. But I was asked about the MVP award several times in September, on XM radio, and by various writers who were honing their own ballots.
(BBWAA members are advised not to reveal our official ballots until after the awards are announced in early November. So check back then to see my top 3 AL Cy Young picks.)
Originally, I thought Morneau sealed the Twins’ MVP award on Sept. 13, when he played first base in both ends of a doubleheader at Baltimore. It was a hot, muggy night, and Morneau had gone 4-for-5 with two doubles, a walk and two RBI in Game 1.
Manager Ron Gardenhire planned to have Morneau DH in Game 2, but Morneau insisted on playing first base again and delivered a two-run single in the first inning that helped finish the doubleheader sweep.
That night, I wrote a postgame blog about two impressive base running plays Morneau made in Game 2. I was struck by his resilience.
“I had the option to DH, but I wanted to go out there and show everybody you’ve gotta play hard,” he said. “If we don’t get into the playoffs, there will be plenty of time off, so grind it out as much as we can.
“We’ve gotta get in. If that means I play first every game, so be it. If that’s the best lineup we can put on the field, I’ll run out there until I can’t run any more.”
Well, we all know how the season ended. After Sept. 13, Morneau finished on a 10-for-59 slide. In those 15 games, he notched just three extra base hits (all doubles) and five RBI. Gardenhire said Morneau was banged up, but the big slugger refused to make excuses, and the Twins wound up losing a one-game playoff to Chicago.
Morneau Avg. OBP SLG
Through 9/13 .314 .387 .528
Season totals .300 .374 .499
Meanwhile, as Morneau stumbled down the stretch, Mauer continued to flourish as he wrapped up his second AL batting title.
Mauer Avg. OBP SLG
Through 8/25 .318 .412 .445
Season totals .328 .413 .451
So, factoring in the finish, who was the team’s MVP? Let’s review the three main criteria the BBWAA lists for league MVP selections.
1. Actual value of a player to his team, that is, strength of offense and defense
2. Number of games played
3. General character, disposition, loyalty and effort
Going in reverse order, I’ll start by saying No. 3 is practically a wash. Mauer and Morneau both have tremendous character. *Both lead by example. They’re all about winning. They love being Twins, and they push themselves to their limits.
(* I’d give a slight leadership edge to Morneau for the way he handled the media, getting to his locker, win or lose, as a team captain would. Not saying Mauer ducks the media, but if you need a quote from him, you usually have to wait through his strict training room regimen. That’s true whether Mauer gets the game-winning hit or grounds out to end the game.)
Number of games played
Mauer 146
Morneau 163
Morneau and Seattle’s Raul Ibanez were the only MLB players to start all their team’s games. To me, the importance of this can’t be overstated. Baseball-Reference.com has a wonderful feature called Stat of the Day, and it recently noted that Morneau was the first player since 1956 to bat cleanup in 163 games. Only six others had batted cleanup in 162.
When the Twins take Mauer or Morneau out of the lineup, they have a huge hole. Mauer plays the most demanding position. But Morneau never missed a game, and that helps ease pressure on other hitters, knowing they’ve got a big run producer in the cleanup spot.
A closer look at Mauer’s playing time shows he ranked with the top catchers, however. Here are the major league leaders in innings caught, according to The Hardball Times:
1) Jason Kendall 1,328
2) Russell Martin 1,238
3) Kurt Suzuki 1,215
4) Joe Mauer 1,203
5) Geovany Soto 1,150
6) Brian McCann 1,143
7) A.J. Pierzynski 1,134
Morneau played 1,363 innings at first base. Eight of his starts came as a DH, compared to four for Mauer. (Mets 3B David Wright led all MLB position players with 1,433 innings in the field.)
Mauer did not catch or DH Game 2 of the Twins’ doubleheader at Baltimore on Sept. 13. But he was back at catcher the next day, in that 95-degree heat. He started the final 15 games, including 14 at catcher, and continued hitting even with the player behind him suddenly slumping.
Actual value of a player to his team
Here are some basic offensive numbers:
Runs scored
Mauer 98
Morneau 97
At bats
Mauer 536
Morneau 623
Hits
Mauer 176
Morneau 187
Doubles
Mauer 31
Morneau 47 (ranked 5th in AL)
Triples
Mauer 4
Morneau 4
Home runs
Mauer 9
Morneau 23
RBI
Mauer 85
Morneau 129 (2nd in AL)
Walks
Mauer 84 (7th AL)
Morneau 76
Strikeouts
Mauer 50
Morneau 85
Batting average
Mauer .328 (led AL)
Morneau .300
On-base percentage
Mauer .413 (2nd AL)
Morneau .374
Slugging percentage
Mauer .451
Morneau .499
On-base-plus-slugging percentage (OPS)
Mauer .864 (20th AL)
Morneau .873 (15th AL)
Adjusted OPS+ (factors league and park averages, courtesy Baseball-Reference.com)
Mauer 134 (tied 9th AL)
Morneau 134 (tied 9th AL)
Grounded into double play
Mauer 21 (9th in AL)
Morneau 20 (10th AL)
Stolen bases
Mauer 1
Morneau 0
Digging deeper, let’s delve into some sabermetrics.
Runs created (invented by Bill James, modified by The Hardball Times)
Mauer 103 (15th AL)
Morneau 122 (led AL)
Runs created/per 27 outs (Runs a lineup of 9 Mauers or 9 Morneaus would average per game, as listed by ESPN.com)
Mauer 6.82 (11th AL)
Morneau 6.50 (18th AL)
Value over replacement player (VORP, courtesy Baseball Prospectus)
Mauer 55.5 (8th AL)
Morneau 45.5 (14th AL)
Win probability added (WPA courtesy of FanGraphs)
Mauer 4.88 (led AL)
Morneau 3.87 (3rd AL)
Win shares (courtesy The Hardball Times)
Mauer 31 (led the AL)
Morneau 29 (3rd in AL)
Win shares is another Bill James measure that helps compare players from different generations. Mauer gets a huge boost from his defense in this category, as 9.2 of those win shares come from fielding. He is considered one of the best defensive catchers in baseball.
Morneau gets only 1.9 of win shares from fielding. I believe first base defense in general is underrated, which hurts Morneau here, though Baseball-Reference.com lists his range factor (9.06) well above the league major league average for first base (6.45).
About those RBI totals
Before the final 15 games, Morneau was on pace to shatter his career high of 130 RBI from 2006, when he won the MVP award. His 129 RBI were still the third highest total in Twins history.
As Aaron Gleeman* noted, Mauer broke his own club records for catchers with 85 RBI and 96 runs scored.
(* In that same post, Gleeman noted that Mauer’s career 127 OPS+ ranks first among AL catchers with at least 1,500 plate appearances through age 25. That list is astounding: 1. Mauer 127, 2. Yogi Berra 123, 3. Bill Dickey 119, 4. Mickey Cochrane 115, 5. Thurman Munson 114. Another reminder that Mauer’s career is on a Hall of Fame path.)
A player’s RBI total relies heavily on the players getting on base in front of him, of course. According to Baseball Prospectus, nobody in the majors came to the plate with more runners on base than Morneau, at 558. Mauer was a distant 55th on that list with 407.
Batting average with runners in scoring position (courtesy Twins)
Mauer .362 (7th AL)
Morneau .348 (9th AL)
Mauer likely got better pitches to hit with Morneau batting behind him. With Morneau entrenched in the cleanup spot, the Twins had the 10th best OPS in the majors from their No. 4 hitters, at .864.
But behind Morneau, in the No. 5 spot, they ranked 29th in OPS, at .690. That helps explain why Morneau was intentionally walked 16 times with RISP.
The envelope, please…
(This was the longest post in Around the Majors history, so thanks for bearing with me, and a special thanks to the sources listed above.)
I would have picked Morneau as team MVP on Sept. 13, and he might have kept that honor had he righted himself before the season ended. But after studying each player’s impact over 163 games, I believe Mauer was the Twins’ 2008 MVP.
To me, Mauer and Morneau both deserved places on the AL MVP ballot (each writer’s top 10 choices), but as for how they stacked up with the others — Dustin Pedroia, Josh Hamilton, Carlos Quentin, etc. — I’ll leave that to the voters.
185 Responses to "Who was the Twins’ MVP: Joe Mauer or Justin Morneau?"
My vote is for Mauer. He showed pretty good consistency at the plate all year long, not just until 9/13/08.
Monster post. Good stuff.
Great analysis Joe!
one think that has to be mentioned is that the MVP is position independent and some of the complex stats like VORP and WS favor catchers. Also, since one of the factors in number of games played RC should be considered over RC/27.
If someone went only by numbers, Morneau is the MVP. However, numbers do not tell the whole story, so I would agree with you because of Morneau’s September collapse (which was a factor in the Twins second vs. first place finish) Mauer should be the team MVP.
As far as AL MVP, I think that it should go to Youkilis.
That whole thing made me think: holy crap, the Twins are lucky to have both of these guys. Forget about who’s better- that post just shows how good Mauer and Morneau were this season. Hope they can keep it up next year.
But if I had to choose, I’d pick Morneau. Morneau definitely displayed the elusive, intangible “clutch” factor almost all season (and as bloggers like to remind us, wins in May count just as much as wins in September). MANY early games won with a timely hit by the slugger. And when Justin started slumping during the last few weeks, the team slumped as well. To me, that shows just how valuable Justin was to the team.
“But behind Morneau, in the No. 5 spot, they ranked 29th in OPS, at .690. That helps explained why Morneau was intentionally walked 16 times with RISP.”
This is exactly why the Twins need 1 more bat in the line up, preferably a righty, to hit behind Morneau. everybody else slides down one spot.
Although I don’t think I agree with your conclusion, the post was fabulous, and exactly what I would like to see more often. I think Morneau’s ability to hit for power becomes more important for the soft-hitting Twins than it would for a team like CWS.
This is as good as it gets, Joe! thanks!
My vote went to Morneau up until about that final weekend, which I don’t really think is right. It’s about the 163 game season, not just the end of the season. But this is a tough one… If I had a real vote today, I would go: 1.) Mauer, 2.) Youklis, 3.) Morneau, 4.) Pedroia, 5.) Sizemore.
But Swannie said it best, “Twins are lucky to have both of these guys. Forget about who’s better- that post just shows how good Mauer and Morneau were this season”
Mauer
Great Job, Joe
how come no mention of the real mvp? punto!
Joe,
Best post of the year by far. I would pick Morneau 1st but Mauer much closer 2nd than some would think. Mauer still gets ripped on the FAN for not catching enough even though he caught more innings that “AJski” did this year.
I vote Morneau. Over the last few years this team generally wins when Morneau is on his game. They lose when he slumps. Maybe this is unfair as Mauer seems more consistent and therefore it is harder to notice a potential drop off when he’s off. I don’t think anyone doubts that this team is in the playoffs if Morneau wouldn’t have cooled off.
Couple of interesting notes from this article:
2. Number of games played
3. General character, disposition, loyalty and effort
With these two factors…how in the WORLD does Manny’s name come up in NL MVP talks? He had two months of ABs with the Dodgers.
Interesting stats also:
Grounded into double play
Mauer 21 (9th in AL)
Morneau 20 (10th AL)
Oops. Guess it’s not Mauer exclusive. 
Runs created/per 27 outs (Runs a lineup of 9 Mauers or 9 Morneaus would average per game, as listed by ESPN.com)
Mauer 6.82 (11th AL)
Morneau 6.50 (18th AL)
That oughta tick quite a few people off as well.
I have to agree that while Morneau contributed a LOT during the season…he ran into a brick wall when his team needed him the most. I was at the game against KC on Saturday. And when he GIDP with the bases loaded I thought to myself “He just lost the MVP race right there…”
-”And when he GIDP with the bases loaded I thought to myself ‘He just lost the MVP race right there…’”
I was listening to XM and i started swearing long and loud and texted my buddy that Morneau was a F’ing clown. After settling down… i came to the lost the MVP race rationalization too…. 
Great post, Joe!
My first choice would be co-MVPs — it’s that close. If that is not possible, I would pick Mauer since the catcher is the quarterback out there and putting up his stats as a catcher is unbelieveable. Cannot argue with Morneau, either. Both are awesome.
Really down the stretch, it was Mauer.
If Morneau had played better in the final week, they might still be playing. I know it’s a long season, and Morneau was so good for so long. It was just a misfortunate time to slump.
T,
I was at that game as well and had the same thought.
My pick would be Mauer, but the Morneau cleanup stat has me reconsidering a little.
I think Mauer should get *some* extra credit for how well the young pitching staff did and really surprised somewhat. Maybe some extra emphasis in area 3 of the BBWAA categories.
Does anyone think Morneau is on a Hall of Fame path?
Rick N,
Morneau doesn’t have much a HOF path…..
he falls in with guys like Todd Helton, Giambi, even Derrik Lee….
good 1bs but not a HOFer
he’d have to hit 500 HRs
If it’s close, Mauer gets it because of his defensive position. The way I see it, it’s tied offensively, so Joe has to get it over Justin. It will be interesting to see if he gets the overall vote. Considering that he beat out Pedroi for the batting title, whom many on the east coast think is the MVP, I would vote for Joe as the overall MVP.
Great post Joe, no other words can describe it.
I agree that Mauer was the MVP. Either of them could have had it.
Thanks Joe!
wow Joe C is late to the “Mauer is the true MVP” party! this guy had that story almost 2 weeks ago!
http://www.mankatofreepress.com/sportscolumnists/local_story_273012939.html
If Morneau had hit the last two weeks of the season like he did in the first 145 games, the Twins would have won the division. Mauer was a beast in September, but the Twins were losers in the final month of the season. I give the MVP to Morneau, and I don’t think it’s that close. Mauer is the best catcher in the major leagues, and it is not close at all, but MVP isn’t about who your best player is. MVP should be based on how important a player is to hist team’s winning, and Morneau is the reason the Twins tied for first.
My vote is Denard Span. Until he was put in the lead off spot, this team was sputtering. he lifted the team like Shannon Stewart did in 2003, I think it was.
I think Morneau really let the team down when it mattered the most, and Mauer, well, I guess I could go with Mauer for MVP because everythign he does for the team with his on base percentage, defensive skills, its easy to take him for granted because he doesnt jack homers, but I like span
“Mauer likely got better pitches to hit with Morneau batting behind him. With Morneau entrenched in the cleanup spot, the Twins had the 10th best OPS in the majors from their No. 4 hitters, at .864.”
There were 9 better clean up hitters in the majors than Morneau? That is tough to believe!
When it mattered at the end, who stepped up? It wasn’t Morneau, it was Mauer. By far, he was the clutch player this year.
I’d vote Morneau as team MVP specifically because of his end-of-season slump. He showed how “valuable” he truly is to the team - if he hits .280 instead of .200 (or whatever it was) over the last week and a half, or just gets two or three timely hits against KC, the Twins win the Central by at least two games.
[…] Around the Majors – […]
I would pick Morneau if I had a vote, but Mauer had a fantastic season. I think it’s close.
wow. This is a feast Joe. Thanks. I can’t believe you included WPA.
I need to agree with you on Mauer. To me, the smoking gun is WPA. It’s the only context sensitive stat up there, meaning it’s the only one that adds extra credit for getting those hits at the most important times. It’s the same reason the MVP choice of Morneau in 2006 was justified.
But mostly I’m just excited with the prospect of seeing more posts like this during the offseason. Pat yourself on the back a bit about this one.
maybe we could have a stat for average when the game actually matters–then I would say…Harris?
Who do you pitch around? WHo hits behind you? Justin gets the nod. He hits without an allstar behind him. He is the man other teams fear, and won’t let beat you. It is closer though, than you’d think.
Morneau has no one protecting him in the line-up and still has a monster year. Put him on the bench for a month and see how many they win. Not very many. Redmond did well when Mauer was hurt last year and in 05.
Great analysis. I still pick Morneau. We can’t win without him and he toughed out 163 games and was clutch 5+ months of the season, without any real threat behind him batting. Mauer was unbelievable as well. The awesome part is that this is a debate. We have two potential MVP and probable future HOFs on our team. And they are nice guys too. We need a big bat behind Morneau, BP help, and we will watch our M & M boys get rings and a World Championship back in MN.
M&M: Co-MVP
Let’s not forget how well Mauer handled the young pitching staff when considering MVP.
I see arguments that Morneau was “clutch” that Harris was “the guy who got hits when it mattered” etc…
here are the “clutch” ratings of the Twins’ batters in 2008 (from hardball times), where “clutch” is defined as:
“Clutch” is the name we’ve given to the portion of Bill James’s Runs Created formula that includes the impact of a batter’s batting average with runners in scoring position and the number of home runs with runners on. The specific formula is Hits with RISP minus overall BA times at bats with RISP, plus HR with runners on minus (all HR/AB) times at bats with runners on. This stat is not a definitive description of “clutch hitting,” just one way of looking at it.
Disclaimer: it is not a pretty story and get ready to fall off your chair, but here it is (bold indicates the dearly departed or the nearly departed):
Morneau 12.4
Lamb 6.8
Cuddyer 6.8
Buscher 6.4
Monroe 6.0
Span 5.9
Ruiz 3.5
Gomez 3.3
Mauer 2.5
Everett 1.9
Clark 0.5
Macri 0.1
Casilla -0.6
Redmond -0.8
Young -0.9
Tolbert -1.4
Harris -2.3
Punto -2.4
Kubel -4.4
They both are awesome players and each helped the Twins have a great year!!! The Twins have to get 1 or 2 big power hitting right handed batters to hit behind Morneau…They need to improve at 3rd, short & LF…Also some bullpen help too…
What is going to happen with Cuddyer?? What about Young??
163 games might make me tired the last 2 weeks. It’s hard to carry the load all season without batting order protection behind you. Justin in a close vote.
I love the speed guys at 1st, 2nd, 8th & 9th they need to get some power hitters in between these 4 hitters…They are exciting to watch…Gardy does an outstanding job with the team, I hope he gets an extension soon…
It is alot of games and it can really take its toll on these guys…Work hard in the off season!!!
I agree with co-MVPs. Although it was quite apparent that Morneau’s slump the last week probably cost the playoff spot. Altogether, a great season from a team that NOBODY expected anything from. Great article. Is this an ESPN website?
Mauer tried to bunt for a base hit in the biggest game of the year. That’s the MVP? Morneau was terrible after 9/13. That’s the MVP? Denard Span is my MVP.
Mauer tried to bunt for a base hit in the biggest game of the year. That’s the MVP? Morneau was terrible after 9/13. That’s the MVP? Denard Span is my MVP.
It is so interesting to see people picking on players based on single games (or stretches of games,) but when Gardy’s failures this season are mentioned and he is pointed out as the main reason the Twins are not playing tonight, everyone jumps on his bandwagon…
Great info in this blog, BUT shows how short the Twins fall in needing another (or a legitimate) POWER BAT. Neither have a power bat and if you think Morneau does, you are in the AAs my friend. Morneau is NOT a power hitter, he is a poor man’s semi power hitter. No discussion - it is a FACT, period!
It’s about the body of his work, not just his lack of production since 9/13. It just gets magnified because it’s the endof the season. Kind of like his 0-for-14 to start the season that was over-magnified bt this paper. Morneau is the Twins MVP and the A.L. MVP.
MAUER, just ask any scout or GM on any other team if they could have a pick between the two who would they take ?
sabremetrics is a garbage way to compare players. if you listened to the so called “experts” that actually use that garbage, Gavin Floyd would be one of the worst pitchers in baseball, but he simply was far from it.
Simply put, without Morneau, the Twins have no offense. Without Mauer, the team would still score, probably more even due to a legit power threat actually being in that #3 spot.
Also, Morneau plays gold glove defense. The much overhyped Mauer plays very mediocre defense, letting a ridiculous amount of balls go between his legs this year. Furthermore, for a guy with such a great eye at the plate, he swings at an excessive amount of terrible pitches or not swinging the bat at all and ends up with 2 strikes every at bat. It’s nice that he still hits for his high average, but if he’d actually hit good pitches earlier in the count instead of standing there like a fool with his bat on his shoulder, he’d be a much more productive hitter. He’d give .400 a legitimate run if he wasn’t such a patsy at the plate.
The MVP of the Twins is Morneau, followed by Span, Baker, Blackburn, then Mauer.
The AL MVP should be:
1. Kevin Youkilis
2. Ian Kinsler
3. Roy Halladay
4. Cliff Lee
5. Grady Sizemore
6. Miguel Cabrera
7. Curtis Granderson
8. Justin Morneau
9. Alex Rodriguez
10. Josh Hamilton
Wow Nico is an idiot. Talk about anecdotal evidence and a Mauer-hater…
Joe I’m pumped that you have taken the time to thoughtfully analyze this situation so thoroughly. As the numbers show, Mauer is this team’s best overall player and sits at the very heart of what makes them go. Without his presence in the middle of the lineup and behind the plate, this would be a very mediocre team indeed.
I’m not saying that Morneau isn’t a big part of their success, but Mauer is the X-Factor that separates the Twins from the rest of the riff-raff in the American League - Morneau is a great run producer and one the AL’s better 1Bs, but Mauer is the best catcher in the bigs and it’s not even close. I heartily agree with your choice and have felt the same way even before 9/13.
Nice post.
One question: if Morneau batted 4th in all 163 games, and his OPS was .873, how did “the Twins have the 10th best OPS in the majors from their No. 4 hitters, at .864″?
Morneau lost some of his value down the stretch because he refused to take Gardy’s offer of a day off. Much is made of the ironman, Cal Ripken’s streak without missing a game. But it is strange that Baltimore which had been a force in the AL before he came around never was again. I have always maintained that he hurt his team by being in the game when he was in a slump rather than take a couple of days off and he had some really long slumps.
I agree with Lanny–living in MD during Cal’s streak–I always thought it cost the Orioles a couple of games in the standings each year. I believe Morneau needed to take a day off a month and he would have been healthier in the stretch and the Twins win the AL Central.
However, if Quinton does not get hurt, the ChiSox win the AL Central–so my vote for MVP is:
1. Quinton
2. Pedroia
3. Morneau
4. Youklis
5. Mauer
6. Hamilton
7. Vlad
8. Dye
9. Sizemore
10. Nathan
DAM
If we had the tampa bay writers here in the TC, Punto really would be our MVP….(Bartlett over Longoria, Pena, any of their pitchers etc…just a joke)
DAM…its Quentin and Youkilis.
Ask yourself this question: Is is harder to be the guy that gets on base, or be the guy who hits the guys in that are on base? The answer is obvious.
Morneau hits behind Mauer for a reason. Mauer is great, and overwhelmingly compliments Morneau… But Mauer’s job (as in the rest of the Twins lineup) is to get on base for Morneau so he can hit them in. This was/is the strength of the lineup, as well as it’s weakness in the last 3 weeks.
Joe C writes that the MVP of the Twins was LOST in the last 3 weeks of the season when Morneau struggled while Mauer continued hitting, but i think that this only puts an exclamation on how truly VALUABLE Morneau was to this lineup. Mauer can hit and hit and hit and walk and walk and walk, but with Morneau struggling in the final weeks, the Twins struggled with him. By definition, Morneau was the team’s most valuable player, in my opinion.
Mighty Casey didn’t strike out. Morneau is by far the most valuable. When he got his hits, the Twins won. When he slumped the Twins lost first place, lost the division title, and lost the chance to go to the World Series.
That DAM-DC Twins Fan overlooked that if Quinton (sic) DOESN’T get hurt, he could have slumped at the place also, hurting his teams chances for the Division title. I don’t see where he was the MOST valuable player in the league. It helps if you are healthy all year long also. Pedroia just had a very good year in a lineup full of great players, so I can’t see where he is MVP either. But Youklis (sic), THAT is one DAM good player!
Let’s put Morneau in front of Mauer in the batting order next year and see how many more pitches Morny gets to hit and what Mauer can do with no one to back him up. That’s gotta be the best way to see who is more valuable.
I don’t like pedroia for MVP, he had Ortiz, Manny, Drew, and Youk batting behind him all year. And Boston isn’t in the playoffs because of him, their pitching put them there.
[…] Friday afternoon, Joe Christensen posted arguably his best blog entry yet. It discusses whether the Twins MVP in 2008 was Joe Mauer or Justin Morneau. It would be hard to argue against either, and in the end, Twins fans should be thrilled to have […]
I agree with your decision, Joe. Morneau had a really good year for a first baseman, but Mauer had a phenomenal year for a catcher. I’ll be interested to read your analysis of the Cy Young vote when you’re allowed to give it.
Mauer is the Twins MVP and a far more valuable player than Morneau every year. He plays one of the games most difficult positions, and unlike Morneau, excels at his position.
Reportedly, opposition teams all have the same defense when playing the Twins, that is, “don’t let Mauer beat you”. Why do you think Joe achieves those high base on balls totals every year?
Justin had 623 AB. In 23 of those AB he hit a HR. In 600 of those AB he did not. Over 97% of the time, Morneau DOES NOT hit one out. Morneau’s HR totals aren’t going to scare major league pitchers. Joe Mauer is the more consistently dangerous hitter.
The bottom line stat still is runs scored. That’s the only stat they add up at the end of the game to determine who wins. Mauer scored far more runs per AB in 2008 than Morneau. Mauer runs the bases better, and has a better knack for scoring.
2008 Twins MVP? Mauer by a landslide. Watch out for Span when he plays a full season next year. He could blow both M&M out of Twins MVP consideration.
Craig, I’ve read your posts all season. At no point have I ever read a single meaningful point. The catch here is that I don’t disagree with your conclusion - read closely to see why you suck!
He hit a home run in 3.69% of his at bats. That would qualify as LESS than 97% of the time. Nitpicking, I know, but please get your stats straight.
Regarding Morneau’s defensive ability, a position he doesn’t “excel at” - Really? Really? Morneau is very much an above average defensive first baseman. If you had read Joe’s post, you would realize this. His defense is underrated, and in your case, completely ignored.
Regarding his “home run rate”, how often do “feared” batters hit home runs? Trust me, I can twist stats too! Ryan Howard hit a home run only 12.7% of the time. That is ONLY 9% above one defensively impaired Justin Morneau! Single digits!!! That is a laughable discrepancy!!! 9 is a tiny number!!! (Note: I don’t actually believe this).
And GET THIS, the guy that most baseball writers are tagging as their NL MVP, the aforementioned Ryan Howard, struck out 32.6% of the time! What was Morneau’s percentage you ask Craig? Well, a measly 13.6% is what it is! Less than half! Wowza!
And you dropped this gem: The bottom line stat still is runs scored. That’s the only stat they add up at the end of the game to determine who wins. Mauer scored far more runs per AB in 2008 than Morneau. Mauer runs the bases better, and has a better knack for scoring.
You can only score if a) you get on base, and b) the batters behind you hit well. Justin Morneau was 16th in the AL in OBP, but, more importantly, he was not afforded the second mentioned luxury. Granted, he doesn’t run the bases as well as Mauer does; or as, well, most of the Twins lineup does. However, I guarantee that if you drop Mauer down to the cleanup spot, and Morneau bats 3rd, the gap in runs scored will shrink considerably.
Mauer is still the MVP, but by a landslide? Denard Span is going to offset Joe Mauer’s hall of fame career track, or Justin Morneau’s offensive prowess? I like Denard Span, and your opinions aren’t terrible across the board, but please try to exercise some humility…
For the sake of all of us…
Thanks in advance.
icono,
So he fails to hit a HR 96.31% of the time instead of 97% of the time? Ha-ha. Okay. I used a glance, not a calculator. I confess.
Regarding Morneau’s fielding, I said he doesn’t excel at 1B. That is true. I saw players like Vic Power and Keith Hernandez play. They excelled at 1B. Morneau isn’t anywhere close to that category.
Mauer, on the other hand, I would place at or above the best catchers I have seen in the past 50 years. Off hand I can’t think of 1 catcher I would rate higher.
I could name a half dozen TWINS who were better fielding 1B than Morneau! Hrbek, Mientkiewicz, Jackson, Reese, Power and Mincher. If I went outside the Twins, the list would be a long, long one. Morneau is improving every year, but he is a long way from excelling at his position.
Regarding base-running, Mauer is one of the teams best base runners. Not the fastest, but one of the smartest. Morneau is hands down the worst base runner on the team. Every season he bungles up on the bases more times than Lew Ford did in his whole career. Add to that, he’s slooooooow.
I like Morneau, but he is no where close to Mauer as a fielder or a baserunner. As a hitter Morneau is good, but Mauer is elite.
Top run scorers, usually score a lot of runs no matter where they bat in the lineup. I wouldn’t call Mauer one of baseballs all-time top run scorers by any means, but he has more of a knack for getting home than Morneau.
Craig,
I love the /AB and % stats you are saying and they are extremely valuable for game decisions but, as Joe indicated, one of the stated criteria for MVP by the league is:
2. Number of games played
that’s why catchers would rarely be MVP and Pitchers should not.
thry,
Morneau played in every game, but you wonder if that wasn’t to the detriment of the team. As Joe also noted, Justin didn’t do much in his last 15 games. Maybe he ran out of gas, when they needed him most. On the other hand, Joe played 17 fewer games, but played well at the end.
I should say as Joe C. also noted. Mauer never critiqued Morneau, to my knowledge.
*Runs created/per 27 outs (Runs a lineup of 9 Mauers or 9 Morneaus would average per game, as listed by ESPN.com)*
Now there is a stat that is inspired by back yard baseball. Morneau gets a hit and and then calls Ghostie on second! Then he and Curtis Granderson get into an argument over weather or not his Ghostie from first would have scored on that double. Curtis gets mad and takes his baseball home with him.
Reading the stats the one that jumped out at me it ops+ for Mauer and the company that he is in. I think we all need to take a step back and appreciate his greatness while he is here/
[…] Christensen has an excellent post on his blog about whether Justin Morneau or Joe Mauer was the Twins’ MVP. Go read […]
Morneau is the MVP of this team, and it’s not close. Take away Mauer for a season, how many more games do you lose? 10? Then take away Morneau? You lose 20 more with this anemic line-up, even with Mauer winning the batting title. They’re both great. The blame should fall on management for not picking up a vet bat. Same thing happened in ‘06, when Soriano and Livian Hernandez were available for rent. The cheapskate owner will not pay two or three million for two months’ hard work, so the Twins miss a chance to go to the Series. And next in line for blame is Gardenhire; I love him, but I watched in horror as he let Guerrier and Crain lose at least four critical games this season. Bring in Mr. Steady was a joke. There were players available to take the heat off Morneau; management kicked the season down the drain.
Hey blue, we know what happens when you take away Morneau for 20 games. It’s called September 2008.
Seriously, Morneau is a good player, but this year he folded when the Twins needed him most. That’s not what an MVP does.
This isn’t “Who’s most valuable overall?”, it’s “Who’s most valuable in 2008?”
If it were Mauer, Young, or god forbid Punto who had the kind of September Morneau had we’d have called for their heads. And people think Gardy or Nicky are some kind of Golden Boys…
No single player- not Ruth, not Mantle, not Mays, is worth 10 or 20 wins to his team. I think we are lucky to have both of these guys in the line-up- memo to management- let’s get some help for them for next year.
The other teams know there is only one of the Twins you have to shut down. That one is Morneau. Walk him, pitch around him, or get him to GIDP, which seems to work the best. Other teams show great respect to Mauer, but don’t consider him as big a threat. Heck, we don’t consider him that big a threat! But I’m with Ganderson, get these guys some help, there are plalyers available, management needs to do something this time.
Morneau was MVP of the Twins. Count the RBI’s
Count my vote as the second for Denard Span. Without him in the leadoff spot, the Twins don’t even get close to the one-game playoff.
Since no one mentioned it, how would a lineup of 9 Mauers or Morneaus do against a lineup of 9 Ditkas? How about mini-Ditkas?
I think I’d pick a 3-headed monster: Morneau, Mauer, and Nathan. Can’t underestimate Joe with the bullpen struggling in 2008. I’d like to see stats on how many of his saves were real earned saves (Jim Caple wrote a great article about overrated saves back in August in ESPN)
KP:
Wouldn’t it be more fair to have 11 Mauers or Morneaus against 9 Ditkas?
Good idea, Benfinito. All I know is Pedroia is NOT MVP. He didn’t lead THAT lineup into the playoffs. He is just simply a player who had a very good year.
This whole discussion is pointless. M&M are both really good baseball players. I’m not sure what happened to Morneau at the end of the season, but something wasn’t right. Morneau is this teams heart and soul and his end of the season slump sunk our play-off hopes! That being said if we did’nt have Morneau I think we would have been terrible. On the other hand the loss of Mauer wouldn’t effect the teams winning as much. We’ve all seen Morneau carry our offense on many occations, but I can’t ever remember our offense “going as Joe Mauer go’s”. No real competition the BC Bomber is our MVP!!
Good stuff, Joe C. Span is pretty tough to pass up. Having a proffessional hitter in the lead-off spot completely changes the entire line-up.
Blue…
You’re totally correct. Management isn’t going to make moves to bring in the help we need! Plus, lets remember that we did have Santana under contract for this season. Just think what our season could have been Johan here. Sure we wouldn’t have gogo but how many more games do we win this season with Santana in the rotaion plus Span leading off the whole season!!!! They sold this season down the drain before it began so the fact that they didn’t bring in a vet right handed hitter doesn’t surprise me much. OH THE SEASON THAT COULD HAVE BEEN!
The problem with alot of these statistics is that the don’t take into account the game situation. Was it an RBI in the 8th inning when the team was already up by five runs? Or was it an RBI to tie or to pull the team within a run? Was the RBI in the final game of a home stand when the team hadn’t played particularly well and really needed a win? Was everybody hitting the cover off the ball that day, or was a particular hit the first spark in an otherwise weak offensive performance? Stats are mosty sterile numbers. I think most people develop a gut feeling as to who the true MVP is based on their watching or listening to the games. That being said, I would give a big edge to Morneau, but I am still bothered by his performance in those last 15 games.
Dustin Pedroia has a higher type avg with mediocre power numbers and low RBI totals. The only reason he may get the MVP award is because of the east Coast media.
Pedroia’s “mediocre power numbers” (17 HR, 83RBI) are better than Mauer’s (9 HR, 85RBI in the 3-hole).
sid but is Mauer up for MVP awards
sid 85 RBI’s are more then 83 RBI’s
The only reason he may get the MVP award is because of the east Coast media.
That and the fact his team made the postseason. It shouldn’t count, but it does. A LOT. It’s why Hamilton went from being Jesus 2 to just another guy when Texas dropped off the face of the AL West.
Morneau was MVP of the Twins. Count the RBI’s
And Morneau doesn’t get any of those RBIs without guys getting on base ahead of him.
T I hate the east Coast media. 17 HR’s is very mediocre. In recent years guys with higher avg’s, Higher HR totals and over 100 RBI’s got the MVP awards. I do not see why Pedroia even deserves consideration for the award
shameless,
Span only batted .218 at Rochester before he was called up. Do you think he would have started diffently if he had been the Twins Opening Day lead-off hitter?
Casilla was the .218(.219) in Rochester
east coast guys haven’t really been winning the MVPs…. Arod i guess but he was a monster last year
Thanks. Span batted .340
Shawn in Binghamton Why does Pedroia deserve the MVP
i don’t think he does. I’d take Mauer 1, maybe that lil sh*t Pedroia 2
The scary thing about Morneau is that in his last 3 years his Septembers have all been bad. In his MVP year, 3 yrs ago, his power numbers were down in Sept, last year he hit hit a grand total of 2 home runs in Aug and Sept, and more worisome, this year both his power numbers and batting average were down in Sept.
Walter Johnson…
Span and Casilla were both hitting for poor batting averages at AAA because they were instructed to try and work walks and not concern themselves with their averages. This apparently helped both of them be patient when they got back to the bigs.
I agree with you that lil sh*t Pedroia doesn’t deserve it at all. Catchers and pitchers don’t usually get the MVP award. How bout either AROD or Morneau? I hate AROD but the stats are pretty good.
Correction only Casilla was told to just try to walk.
From Walter Johnson:
“The problem with alot of these statistics is that the don’t take into account the game situation. Was it an RBI in the 8th inning when the team was already up by five runs? Or was it an RBI to tie or to pull the team within a run? Was the RBI in the final game of a home stand when the team hadn’t played particularly well and really needed a win? Was everybody hitting the cover off the ball that day, or was a particular hit the first spark in an otherwise weak offensive performance? Stats are mosty sterile numbers.”
Excellent post. In baseball, “when” is much more important than “what”.
Don’t you love those 3 run, eighth inning HR bombs, in a 14 to 4 rout, that make the highlight reel? Ha-ha.
How about Miguel Cabrera?
160 G, 37 HR, 127 RBI, .292 BA, .537 SLG, .887 OPS
While it was impressive for Morneau to play in all 163 games, I think his season ending slump just goes to show you how much coaching matters. The coaching staff should have given Morneau days off. They wanted to, but were talked out of it by Morneau. The staff should have used their better judgment and just told Morneau to sit. I think if they would have given Morneau some sporadic days off throughout the season, his legs and bat would have stayed strong during the most important part of the season.
[…] Several days after Joe Christensen wonderfully discussed who the Twins MVP could be (Mauer or Morneau), Aaron Gleeman gave his vote for the Twins 2008 MVP. I don’t disagree with his […]
Time to pre-empt the yeah-rah-rah Garza crowd:
116 pitches in 6 innings!!? And only 54% of them were strikes.
I missed the game — and I’m sure Garza pitched his tail off. They said 90% of his pitches were FB’s. Boston hitters may be a little old.
Looks to me like Howell won the game for TB. Too bad the Twins didn’t get a shot at TB.
Let’s say the Twins decided on Sept 13 that they had to get rid of either Morneau or Mauer. And let’s say the Dodgers or Red Sox were interested for their playoff push. Never mind the position-specific considerations: Which player would make the bigger impact? Morneau over Mauer, in every possible trade consideration. Morneau fails in the late season because he’s got no bat behind him. Kubel, with 78 RBI? Give me a break. Kubel drove in 11 runs in September, with 3 homers (two in one game). Morneau had 190 hits, and Kubel gets 78 rbi? Manny has no problem playing in September or October, and he must be just as exhausted as Morneau, right? Why don’t Ryan Howard or Jason Bay collapse like Morneau did? Teams get more cautious pitching to Morneau over the course of a season, and the pitches he sees get worse and worse and worse. He had 76 walks this year. 45 of them came in the 2nd half of the season, and he got 50 of them after June 24. That last week in June, he played against NL teams, and they were cautious with him. From June 1 to June 23, he got just TWO walks, in a 9-4 win in Milwaukee, and that’s it. He was being pitched to. By the end of the season, he sees utter slop, because the Twins’ fifth batter is a joke. And the sixth batter, and the seventh batter. Also, Morneau is stubborn and not easily confronted; in 2005 and in 2006, teammates had to face him down and tell him to get serious about the games and about his career. In 2006, he had that game-winning hit that changed the Twins season: a two-run homer that won a game against the Tigers and fireballer Zumaya, and made me realize two things at the same time, that the Twins would catch Detroit and that Morneau would win MVP. Mauer was of course on base when Morneau got that shot on August 9, 2005. In Detroit, top of the eighth, against 100-mph heat. When is the last time the Twins had a player who could do that? Puckett. But in 2006, Morneau also got a career year behind him in the form of Cuddyer, with 109 rbi. What would have happened this year, if Kubel hit .300 and had 93 rbi? How many more games might the Twins have won? Two, three? If a new face had been brought in here by management at the end of July, specifically designed to protect Morneau’s pitches, the Twins would have been facing the Rays instead of the Chisox. They might be playing for the Series right now. What was the problem with Adrian Beltre? He drove in 14 runs in his last 16 games before getting shut down for the season on Sept. 14. What would have happened if he’d been traded here? He was sick to get out of Seattle, the Twins knew that. But he’s old and expensive and suppose the Mariners wanted a real prospect? So what? The Twins gave away Garza when they could have got Soriano for him in 2006. Why not keep Livian and ship out Blackburn for Beltre? Anyone could see the meltdown coming in the rotation: If you didn’t know Slowey, Blackburn and Perkins would collapse September 1st, you weren’t paying attention, because they went way high in the innings count and young pitchers usually break down at 150 innings the first time around. Blackburn (193 innings!), Slowey (160) and Perkins (151) were all going to hit a wall sooner, not later, and they did, comically. The Twins were not prepared. Livian, meanwhile, has thrown more than 200 innings in 8 seasons. But it is blasphemous to talk about trading young arms in Minnesota. People go crazy when this is suggested, and start howling about the future. Well, how many real chances do you have to get to the World Series? I’ve been following the Twins since 1965, when I went to a game as a 5-year-old, and there have been four seasons since then that the Twins could have gone all the way: 1987, 1991, 2006 and 2008. They made it twice, and struck out twice. Why? Did somebody make a bad decision? Soriano was too expensive! That’s B.S. For four millions dollars for two months, the owner might have got a Series worth three times that amount in tickets, TV advertising, etc. The Twins, every year, are one of the most profitable teams in baseball, and the freaking owner does not put the cash back into the team. He takes it out. Every year, the Yankees and Red Sox lose money, millions. 2008 was not ruined because Morneau tanked at the end of the season. The season was lost because the management follows the dictates of the owner, who is a cheapskate loser. Period.
The staff should have used their better judgment and just told Morneau to sit.
While I totally agree, try telling that to the “Mauer’s a pansy for not playing more” crowd.
To make a long story short, the Twins would be a much better team in 2009 if they traded Cuddyer and Punto.
the Twins would be a much better team in 2009 if they traded Cuddyer and Punto.
I always love when people have no idea what they’re talking about.
“Which player would make the bigger impact?”
Probably Joe Mauer. Since getting a catcher of his caliber is nearly impossible. It is MUCH easier to replace a guy like Morneau than it is Mauer.
“Mauer was of course on base when Morneau got that shot”
Seems to happen a lot, doesn’t it?
“What was the problem with Adrian Beltre?”
Were you not paying attention? The ‘problem’ was that Seattle really didn’t want to move him. Or, if they did, they wanted WAY too much for him.
“The Twins gave away Garza”
…for a 22 year old first overall pick in the 2003 MLB draft, who happens to be under team control for several more years.
“But it is blasphemous to talk about trading young arms in Minnesota. ”
Yeah. We wouldn’t do that. Like trading Garza for Young. That’s crazy talk!
“Well, how many real chances do you have to get to the World Series?”
Let’s see…the Twins have been to the playoffs 4 of the last 7 years, and played in a one game playoff for the division title this year. So I’d say they have had 5 real chances in the last 7 seasons.
“For four millions dollars for two months, the owner might have got a Series worth three times that amount in tickets, TV advertising, etc.”
So, they could have spent 4 million dollars, plus some prospects, for the chance to maybe made up that money later. It’s really easy to gamble with other people’s money, isn’t it?
“The Twins, every year, are one of the most profitable teams in baseball, and the freaking owner does not put the cash back into the team.”
You have numbers for that? I’m willing to wager 4 million of Carl Pohlad’s dollars that you don’t.
“Every year, the Yankees and Red Sox lose money, millions. ”
Now you are just getting crazy. The Yankees and Red Sox do NOT lose money. If they did, they wouldn’t have payrolls that high and they wouldn’t be sharing money with other teams. But, I’m sure you have numbers to prove you are correct, right?
Wow! Pete D. gets seriously kudos for actually bothering to parse through that long winded ramble by blue.
I mean seriously! I gave up after the part about trading Morneau or Mauer.
“The Twins, every year, are one of the most profitable teams in baseball, and the freaking owner does not put the cash back into the team.”
You have numbers for that? I’m willing to wager 4 million of Carl Pohlad’s dollars that you don’t.
I do
here:
http://www.forbes.com/lists/2008/33/biz_baseball08_The-Business-Of-Baseball_Income.html
the Twins have the 9th highest income in the majors (numbers after the 2007 season) $23.8M profit.
And if you want more figures about profit/loss for the twins go here:
http://www.roadsidephotos.com/baseball/BRPanelupd.htm
and look at the last 2 tables (bottom of the page) for total revenue by club and total payroll by club from 1995-2001.
(yes there are other expenses than payroll, but this will give you some idea… the bottom line is that the Twins’ revenues increased 178% from 1995-2001 while the payroll increased by 104%. The other costs (mainly non-player salaries and stadium lease do not usually increase more than 4-5% annually…
thrylos -
There is no way in the world that I will ever believe that the Red Sox lost 19.1 million dollars in 2007, or that the Yankees lost 47.3 million. I do know that there is a loop hole in the way the revenue sharing works that allowed the Yankees to use the new stadium to get out of having to pay revenue sharing. Is that what is going on with these numbers?
In fact, I guess I don’t know how those numbers are calculated. The Yankees had a payroll just shy of $190 Million in 2007. If they had $327 Million in revenue, and $77 Million in debt, that should leave them with $250 Million dollars. Where is that extra $60 million? Actually, if they are at $-47.3 Million, where is that extra $100 Million? There is a lot of funny stuff going on with that accounting. NO ONE is going to lose $47 Million on a baseball team.
And, just for fun, here are some more of those Forbes pages for other years.
2005 season - Twins 7th from the bottom.
http://www.forbes.com/lists/2006/33/Income_1.html
2004 season - Twins 21st. (link way too long to post.)
I couldn’t find any for the 2006 season in my quick google search, but I suspect the Twins are in the middle somewhere.
Needless to say, the Yankees aren’t losing $40 Million a year. I assume that there is some funky bookkeeping going on - for example, the Yankees made somewhere around $60 million in cable rights with YES last year. The Twins are nowhere near that, obviously. Also, this year, the Twins have a low payroll, due to the young players we have, and a large value, because of the new stadium deal. I assume that will push the operating income higher.
You mean to tell me that a business is making PROFITS!?
*SHOCK HORROR*
I assume that there is some funky bookkeeping going on
yeap. It is called ‘loss after interest is calculated’. Teams heavy in dept, list interest as a loss. Usually the debtor is the owner (in one pocket, out the other)
“the bottom line is that the Twins’ revenues increased 178% from 1995-2001 while the payroll increased by 104%. ”
And if the table included the payroll from 2002, it would have seen the payroll increase by another 16 Million or so. Which would have made the payroll increase by 200%, not 100%.
Also, if we look at the averages, the Twins don’t seem to be out of line at all. If I did my math correctly, the average revenue per club in MLB went up by a factor of 139%, while the average payroll only went up 98%. So even if we just go by the numbers presented from 1995-2001, the Twins increase of 158% in revenue and 104% in payroll doesn’t seem to be out of line with the rest of MLB, does it? The revenue went up more than the average MLB team, but so did the payroll.
And I think it’s 158%, not 178%. Unless I’m reading it wrong.
Both Mauer and Morneau are great players at their positions and form the heart of the twins batting order. But I believe the intangibles are the real key in who is/was most valuable. I firmly believe that Morneau has become the leader of the team and as he goes so go the twins. Yet, I think they should be co-MVP’s.
T,
business make profits. Most profitable businesses do not ask their customers for subsidies to buy real estate to conduct their business.
thrylos -
I’m pretty sure that most really big businesses actually do get tax breaks and the like to come to an area. The towns want these big companies there - for example Best Buy and Target here in the Twin Cities. I’m 95% positive that they get subsidies to stay in town.
Pete D.
of course, big businesses get tax breaks and the like. The driver is employment of local residents. Target employs about 350,000 people world-wide and I bet about 80,000 or so of them are at or around the Minneapolis/St Paul metro area. The Twins probably employ about 500 people world-wide and about 200 of them are in the Minneapolis/St. Paul area. Secondary employment (such as by affiliated businesses i.e. stadium vendors, etc) is probably close to 1500 max. The Twins would be classified as a medium business as far as local employment generation goes. Also, large employers (like target) get breaks, but not direct money as a fraction of the local sales tax.
That’s the way it goes, and it’s fine. However, the Twins should put some of their profits to the team, because since they cannot pay the community back by employment generation, they should pay back by title generation…
with 30 teams in a league if they were all run the same we could expect a championship every 30 years. To win more often is to say that the organization is blessed with good management and one that spends money. If you already consede the organization doesn’t spend enough money and i know many are not fans of the management, why SHOULD we expect to win often?
sorry about the run-on ramble
“That’s the way it goes, and it’s fine. However, the Twins should put some of their profits to the team, because since they cannot pay the community back by employment generation, they should pay back by title generation…”
I don’t really want to get into an argument on if Carl Pohlad puts enough money into the team or not. But he has brought this town it’s only professional sports championships, and making the playoffs 4 of the last 7 years is more than the other pro sports teams in town.
thrylos98,
Employment of local citizens is not the only driver. The Twins also bring people into the Twin Cities on game days who stay in hotels, eat at restaurants, go to the Mall of America, etc. and buy gas before they leave town.
Pete D.,
I agree. At least the Twins generate a HOPE of making the playoffs and bringing home a title. I cannot say that of the basketball and football franchises in Minnesota.
he has brought this town it’s only professional sports championships
that is ancient history: there are people who are eligible to vote this November who were not born when the Twins won their last world series…
he also is the only owner who voluntarily wanted to contract his team. (or do we forget about that?)
“that is ancient history: there are people who are eligible to vote this November who were not born when the Twins won their last world series…”
Ask a Cubs fan or a Red Sox fan about that. Yes, 17 years seems like a really long time. But it isn’t. Since the Twins won the Series in 91, there have been 9 other teams that have won it. That means that two-thirds of the teams in the league right now have not won a World Series since the last time the Twins have. Doesn’t really seem so bad to me.
he also is the only owner who voluntarily wanted to contract his team.
Considering how much venom is constantly spewed his way by the “fans” of the team, can you blame the guy?
No matter what move he or the front office makes, it’s never the move that “should” (as in, after the fact) have been made.
What was the whining about all winter in 07? “Oh Pohlad’s too cheap to keep anybody!”
Then they extend three contracts, and what’s the new whine? “Oh Pohlad didn’t keep players I wanted.”
Most profitable businesses do not ask their customers for subsidies to buy real estate to conduct their business.
Most department stores, gas stations, and restaurants aren’t travel destinations for visitors from New York, Boston, or LA.
And most of the time, when your local big box retailer is in use, it’s not broadcast to a state wide (or in some cases nationwide) audience.
Target is a business, and the Twins are a business. But they are significantly different businesses.
That means that two-thirds of the teams in the league right now have not won a World Series since the last time the Twins have.
Well then obviously every last one of THOSE owners aren’t committed to winning, and live in communities that are happy with mediocrity.
How bout them Rays?
No kidding! That game last night is starting to remind me of the 2002 ALCS. No matter who the Twins put on the mound the Angels just pounded them…
“that is ancient history: there are people who are eligible to vote this November who were not born when the Twins won their last world series…”
So will this wave of 17 year olds voting cause an issue worse than the hanging chads of 2000?
T says:
“Considering how much venom is constantly spewed his way by the “fans” of the team, can you blame the guy [for wanting to contract the Twins]?”
That is about the lamest defense of Pohlad I have ever heard!
I keep coming here expecting “news from around the majors”, but in typical MN fashion, the only news is about the MN team, and not the playoffs. We have months to discuss this kind of stuff, meanwhile, the playoffs are just passing this site by.
How bout them Rays?
Possible Twins-Giants tradeViews 4103 Comments 22 07:05 AM ET 10.15 Share Print It My T&R It wouldn’t be surprising if the Twins have trade talks about moving outfielder Delmon Young to the San Francisco Giants, from whom they acquired pitchers Joe Nathan and Francisco Liriano. The Giants’ leading home run hitter this season was catcher Bengie Molina with 16.
St. Paul Pioneer Press
I wonder who the Twins would want from the Giants other than Lincecum? Honestly, Twins don’t need a starter and trading Young is foolish at this point.
The Giants’ leading home run hitter this season was catcher Bengie Molina with 16.
*insert obligatory “More than Young” comment here*
On a serious note, trading Young right now would seem more reactionary than beneficial to the team.
A team should never base a decision strictly on how fans will react, otherwise they’ll never do ANYTHING (as you can never please every fan every time)
That is about the lamest defense of Pohlad I have ever heard!
Part of staying in a town is a sense of loyalty to the city. As well as a feeling that the team is wanted. And considering the mood around here is love the team but hate everything about them…it’s confusing vibes.
And Pohlad’s not exactly familiar with the modern WB-esque teen drama style relationships.
We started out with Bartlett and Garza. We trade them for Harriss and DY. We then trade DY for Bengie Molina. I think that are return for trades is going down and down and down. We also just re-signed redmond. Why do we need another catcher. This trade makes no sense to me. Should have kept Garza or traded him for a 3rd baseman with power not named Beltre
Garza is gone - there’s nothing we can do about that now.
The question is, what is more valuable, Young or something else….I don’t think Molina is worth more.
I don’t think the point was trading for Bengie Molina-rather the fact there’s a team whose HR leader had less HRs than a Twins player.
Why not a package deal with DY and another player for a 3rd basemen. Benjie Molina c’mon give me a break
Bengie
I think the meaning of the comment was that the Giants need power and therefore would be interested in Delmon Young because, unlike most Twins fans, they recognize his potential as a 23-year old player with two years of Major Leauge experience under his belt.
I personally don’t care for DY’s fielding ability but I do like his hitting as far as avg for being so young. Unless he plays RF I don’t want to see him running slugishly towards balls hit toward the gap. I say keep him and get rid of Span and Boof or Cuddy and Boof for a 3rd baseman like Troy Glaus.
Why is everybody acting like Young/Molina is actually going to happen? The Strib mentions Molina because it’s evidence that the “best” the Giants can offer isn’t any kind of improvement over Young (at least in the hitting department)
I wouldn’t want Molina because we already have Mauer and Redmond. How bout Lincecum for Young and Kubel? Seems fair enough. Or how bout Glaus for Span and Boof or Cuddy and Boof and APTBNL
Or how bout DY and Kubelfor Fielder and Hall and use Fielder as the DH
Why give up our no. 1 and 2 power hitters for starting pitching we don’t need?
Sorry, no. 2 and 3 power hitters.
if they trade delmon young im never going to another twins game again
Jason Kubel, 2008
AB: 463, HR: 20, RBI: 78, BA: .272
David Ortiz, 2002 (final year w/ Twins)
AB: 412, HR: 20, RBI: 75, BA: .272
Kubel is clearly the next David Ortiz.
I actually heard that Kubels knee’s are so bad that he will have quite a shortened career. I forget what they said he did but it was quite the number to screw his legs up. Kubel has potential where as Fielder’s Numbers are already there.
Re: Young “talks” with CF:
Given the fact that it came out of Charlie Waters’ you-know-what, who severely dislikes Young for some reason (the other day he wrote that Young is the only current player that does not fits the Twins’ “personality” - whatever that elusive thing might be), I would not give it any credence, esp. since the Giants have absolutely nothing in return that might be interesting to the Twins. To make a trade you need a match. The Giants do not match with the Twins…
thrylos98 the only thing that the Giants have is Lincecum and we are stockpiled high with pitchers.
I would rather trade Span. He is a more disciplined hitter now than Gomez. But Gomez has more potential to hit for power and to be a great centerfielder. I think Span too light-hitting for a corner outfielder. His value is in center, and I think that spot is filled by Gomez. A team in need for a centerfielder. Jim Edmunds is 38, maybe the Cubs.
Walter: What do the Twins ask for in return from the Cubs? The Twins biggest need is 3B or DH (depending on how they feel about Kubel).
I don’t think the Cubs would deal Rameriez, and who would you pull from the Cubs to convert to DH?
Walter Johnson what about Soriano with the twins and put him back in the infield.
Scratch the Alfonso Soriano idea. He is $14,000,000.00 and we are cheap.
T,
That’s the thing: a team not only has to have a need for the player you intend to trade, but also has to have a player you want in return. The Cubs have a need, but as you said, who do we get in return? We do need a SS (or 2B if you move Casilla to SS) and jimmy bee mentions Soriano. Why did the Cubs move Soriano to the OF in the first place?
Anyway, my main point was intended to be that if you trade an OF, trade Span, not Young. I think Souhan’s head will explode (or implode) if Young is playing everday in 2009, and I don’t want to miss that.
Actually, Soriano hasn’t played 2B since 2005 with Texas. But 29 HRs in only 109 games in ‘08.
Walter Johnso Soriano wouold be a greeeeeat addition also what would the Cards want for Glaus. I would love to get him. I just realy, realy do not want any part of Beltre.
jb, didn’t we try to get Soriano from Washington a couple years ago, but they wanted Liriano (or Garza) in return?
We should have given them Garza for Soriano in a New York minute. I would have driven him (Garza)to the airport myself holding a spit cup
Soriano was insanely bad in the infield. Frankly, I’d rather see Ruiz and Buscher as the double play combination for the Twins next year ( ) than Soriano in the infield. In any AL club, he is a DH, nothing more…
Frankly I would rather see Soriano’s bat then Ruiz or Buscher’s.
The word around Chicago is that the Cubs are looking to trade Derrek Lee.
I would not believe any words out of Chicago until the ownership issue has been settled…
The Twins least valuable player is Cuddyer, with Punto coming in a close second. Both players seem to have a nack for finding ways to help the Twins lose in importanat games. Both Cuddyer and Punto should be traded as soon as possible.
I say you get rid of Cuddyer, but he’s worth almost nothing. And what happens when you wake up on June 1, 2009, and Gomez is hitting .224 and Span is hitting .261? Then everyone will shout bring back Cuddyer. Punto should stay right here. But it doesn’t mean he has to be a starter every day; he’s one of the most valuable pieces of the Twins. Getting rid of him destroys chemistry, which the front office has already proven itself capable of doing, as with Castillo. I’m glad Pete D. got to see the Forbes numbers about the Twins’ income. Those numbers good enough for ya? Other apologists like Pete D. should realize: The Twins are extremely profitable on a yearly basis. They are out to rook the community instead of giving something back, even though they do their best to sing the song otherwise. The Red Sox and Yankees make much more money as an asset than the Twins do, and are therefore probably better investments. But they do NOT have better margins of profit than the Twins do, because ALL revenue is devoted to product improvement. If Pete D. wasn’t blindly biased, he could do some research and find this out himself in about 15 minutes; he’s already sold on what he knows, so he’s bought into the Twins’ management style as the way to go. And it may be. Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Florida are all influenced by the Twins of the past decade; the Baltimore Orioles are now the newest follower. It works. It makes money for the owner. It MIGHT produce winning baseball. My beef about Garza and Soriano and Beltre was simply to make a point about protecting Morneau. He’s one of the best bats in baseball. If he wanted to hit .265 and pull, he’d get 40 homers a year, no sweat. But he has to be protected. Soriano in 2006 as the DH (and look who was DHing for the last two months that season), COULD have put the Twins into the WS. Without the protection, though, Morneau got NO pitches in the playoffs. I don’t think Beltre is a good addition at all. But if he’d shown up here on August 1, the Twins are in the playoffs, and they might easily have beat the Rays. (Although not without getting another starting pitcher.) But it’s not in the plans for the Twins to win unless they do it by the very narrow approach of their management. You have to go out and buy a Jack Morris as a short-term investment every now and then, if you’re going to win it all. Look at who the Twins have traded for or purchased in the past year. People should be fired for this incompetence. Mike Lamb? Guardado? Everett? Delmon Young? Who cares where he was drafted; he’s undisciplined at the plate and won’t be a worthwhile commodity for another TWO seasons. Ditto Gomez. And Garza will be pitching in the Series. And I could point to other buys like Nevin to prove my point. Just don’t swallow the Kool Aid coming from the Twins. Beltre was available, cheap. Get rid of Blackburn for a bat and keep Hernandez. You do those two things, you’re in the Series, possibly. Instead, management fumbled it, making Morneau look bad in the process, swinging from his island. You think Mauer is winning batting titles without Morneau right behind him? Forget it. Morneau is a bull. He should be playing in October. The people who pay his salary might not be good enough to let him do so. It happens all the time. The Twins decided long ago to be a factory or incubator and try to win along the way. Factory first, pennant second. There won’t be any championships here for years unless the management alters their approach just a little bit.
Why did the Cubs move Soriano to the OF in the first place?
Soriano played 2B for the Yankees, and continued at 2B when he went to Texas in the Rodriquez trade.
He didn’t get moved to the OF until he went to the Nationals. It was a pretty controversial move at the time, and I believe there was a period where they thought Soriano may have been dogging it there.
So he had been “turned” into an OF by the time he got to the Cubs.
Also: The Twins did make a push for Soriano while he was still playing 2B with the Rangers.
However, the demands were a Liriano/Garza+ (as in, they wanted like three guys).
The problem was that Soriano was going to be a free agent at the end of the year, meaning you’d be giving up some top shelf young pitching for only two/three months of Soriano.
The risk being you aren’t able to resign him come season’s end.
Both Cuddyer and Punto should be traded as soon as possible.
Dearest herb/tommy/troll….
Do your homework, then come back and attempt to rejoin the conversation.
Moreanu is the Twins MVP without question.
Considering all the young talent Gardenhire had to work with, he did a sub-par job. He is always given far too much credit whenever the Twins have a decent season–it like–the bums didn’t have a chance except that Gardenhire is their manager. That is an extremely inaccurate assessment of Gardenhire’s performance as a manager. Anyone could be the manager and win as many games as the Twins did in 2008. With all their talent, they should have won the division by ten games. I do not think that Gardenhire should be given an extension of his contract. I think the Manager and coaching staff from Rochester should be brought to the Major League level.
Lets all hope that Cuddyer does not return to the team in 2009. He is a Curse on the Twins and would only bring them bad luck. Cuddyer is extremely clumsy for a major league player. He is slow running the bases and frequently strikes out with runners in scoring position. Hopefully, he will be traded for a minor league relief pitching prospect or someone who could help the team in the future.
Well blue, it appears that you didn’t really listen to anything I said.
I’ve already explained why I think the Forbes numbers aren’t right. This article - http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/how-much-is-your-team-really-worth/ - explains it much better than I can. Basically, there is a bunch of funky bookkeeping going on.
Secondly, I already showed that, according to the data that thrylos shared, the Twins were spending league average amount on salaries. But you stay convinced that the Red Sox and Yankees are losing money every year, and Carl Pohlad is just raking it in.
I’m also intrigued as to how you know that Beltre was available cheap. Do you work for the front office of either the Twins or the Mariners? You say ‘Get rid of Blackburn’ and to keep Hernandez. You do realize that Blackburn was better than Livan Hernandez this year, right? So, is the trade off of Beltre over Buscher/Harris a big enough upgrade to make up for the Blackburn/Hernandez downgrade? Who knows. Beltre had a better August and September - until he got injured - than Buscher and Harris. However, Livan Hernandez had a TERRIBLE year after he left the Twins. Probably a wash. But no, you’ve got them in the World Series! That’s some optimism!
But my FAVORITE part about your entire post was this :
“If Pete D. wasn’t blindly biased, he could do some research and find this out himself in about 15 minutes; he’s already sold on what he knows, so he’s bought into the Twins’ management style as the way to go. And it may be. Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Florida are all influenced by the Twins of the past decade; the Baltimore Orioles are now the newest follower. It works.”
So, you claim that I am just blindly following the Twins, believing in their management style as the way to go, and then point out that it actually WORKS! Look - the Twins were TERRIBLE in the late 90’s. I hated the way they were being run. Didn’t enjoy the contraction talk. But I do honestly believe they are doing things the right way now. They lock up the guys that are truly valuable to the team - the Morneaus, the Mauers, the Nathans. - Actually, on a side note, I don’t really agree with the Nathan signing. I think it’s too much to pay for a closer. But, hey, I blindly agree with everything they do! - They don’t sign guys to crazy huge contracts anymore - guys like Joe Mays, Torii Hunter, Johan Santana, etc. They trust the scouts and their minor leagues. They have decided, as an organization, to emphasize pitching and defense and shy away from power hitting. And you know what? It seems to really work.
It doesn’t work. That’s the whole point. So what if you win 89 games every year and miss the playoffs by a game or lose in the opening round? I’d rather suck for five years, watch the young guys come up, contend, and then win and do the necessary last-minute shopping that gets you over the hump. An earlier poster sums it up well, by saying the problem with getting Soriano was that there were fears that the Twins couldn’t afford him the following year. There would NOT have been a following year. Soriano would have been good for two months. His agent was aching to get out of DC and get into the Series, and knew the Twins were the best bet. Garza and two prospects would have been payment enough, but Ryan would not convince the owner to make the move. I’ve heard two stories directly from the offices: The owner didn’t want to be embarrassed by not paying Soriano the next spring, and the owner didn;t think Soriano was worth the pro-rated portion of his salary for those two months, a couple of million bucks, and Ryan was in love with Garza. The money from a Series appearance would have been far more than the cost of Soriano (and not just for two months, but probably for the next year’s entire $10 million), but the Twins wouldn’t do it. With either Soriano or Beltre behind him, Morneau would have been hitting line drives all the way through October. It’s a possibility, and I am not saying it w