Monday update: Rookie voting, Holliday trade
Posted on November 10th, 2008 – 2:28 PMBy Joe Christensen
Tampa Bay 3B Evan Longoria was named American League rookie of the year today. White Sox 2B Alexei Ramirez finished second in the voting, and Red Sox OF Jacoby Ellsbury finished third.
Among those receiving votes, Twins RF Denard Span received three and Twins RHP Nick Blackburn received one.
Cubs C Geovany Soto won NL rookie honors.
Also, several sites are reporting the Rockies and A’s are close to a deal that would send LF Matt Holliday to Oakland. Ken Rosenthal mentions OF Carlos Gonzalez, RHP Huston Street and LHP Greg Smith as Oakland players the teams discussed this weekend.
The Holliday deal could clear the way for Colorado to deal 3B Garrett Atkins, and the Rockies have spoken to the Twins. Before you get too excited about those prospects, you should read today’s post from Aaron Gleeman:
However, once you wipe away perceptions, reputations, and name recognition there simply isn’t that much difference in performance between Atkins and Buscher-Harris.
Note: Add infielder Howie Clark (AAA) to the list of Twins’ minor-league free agents.
42 Responses to "Monday update: Rookie voting, Holliday trade"
I have had the privilege of watching Atkins play for the Rockies since I live in Colorado. I think the guy has a batting title type swing with some pop. I think he is going to be a great hitter, I really do. He has a lot of plate coverage. He is better than the numbers indicate. That is just my opinion, but I really believe it.
I would be thrilled if the Twins got him. He does add some major pop to the lineup as well.
I second reading Gleeman’s column. Atkins is not worth it. I’d probably prefer one year of Beltre to two years of Atkins.
Houston Street’s name had been brought up with the Twins. I suppose the Holliday trade all but nixes that idea.
While I do like the Buscher-Harris platoon Aaron Gleeman mentioned, what about Atkins starting at third with Buscher and Harris available off the bench and the ability between the two of them to cover all four infield positions? I might like that idea better.
ryan zimmerman.
lets do it!
Twins need to focus on Hardy. Upgrading SS is the biggest need, as we can always fall back on Harris/Buscher at 3B.
If we trade Blackburn and Cuddy for Atkins, I guess that leaves Humber, Boof, Swarzak and Mulvey to vie for the 5th spot.
Hardy is the best guy out there w/in the Twins reach at SS.
MH
Why do you think Zimmerman is available? Do you have any sources that say that or are you just throwing names out?
If the Twins can really get Atkins for Cuddy (I have my doubts, but this is coming from the Denver Post as a possible trade) then I think it is a slam dunk. People are going to be pleasantly surprised by what type of hitter Atkins is.
People are forgetting that the humidor was introduced a few years ago and Coors Field. It is not the hitting park it used to be. Yes, it is still a good hitting ball park, because of the large outfield, but the ball doesn’t fly out of the park like it used to. The ball park plays much more fair then it used to.
I think part of the reason Rockies hitters have such wide splits is the difference in altitude and how it impacts breaking balls. A good breaking ball just doesn’t break as much in the High altitude and it really make it hard to adjust your stroke on the road.
This Atkins guy has a Mauer like stroke. Do not be surprised if he wins a batting title.
the twins have the pitching to fill the holes in the offense..
so we can make some deals..
but, with that being said.. when the twins continually draft high school players.. how much does that actually set a frachise back?
does it set us back at all?
just curious because right now our offense is pretty good. we do need to upgrade at SS and 3rd.
so, wouldnt you think last year, and this year we should draft college kids? who can get to the pros quickly?
garza is an example. he was up in the bigs in only a couple years i believe?
i guess this is what im trying to say.
when a team is competitive for as many consecutive years now as the twins have been.. wouldnt it benefit the team to draft college kids who can come up in a couple years that may be able to fill the holes?
or draft high school kids who are years away?
jama
i was just throwing his name out there.
the nats say he is their franchise player.
But, he has under performed and they have many holes..
The trade for Atkins is good only if it costs Cuddyer and Bonser or a minor league prospect. Do not give up a young starter for Atkins. Blackburn or Perkins should only be dealt if we are dealing for JJ Hardy. Hardy should be Primary target if available. If we get Hardy, the twins will be fine with a platoon of Harris and Buscher.
Back to my point about Coors Field not being the crazy hitting park it used to, post humidor.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor?sort=runsFactor&season=2008
Look at 2005 (pre humidor) to now.
MH
How much pitching would you trade. I’m not sure they even have a 5th starter next year if they trade Blackburn or Perkins. They don’t have guys that are really ready to step up and start next year.
I’d trade Cuddyer for Atkins if for no other reason it clears up some more money. Cuddyer is grossly overpaid. Getting rid of him would probably be as good as getting Atkins.
jama..
i think baker,slowey, perkins, liriano are off limits.
thats leaves boof, blackburn, humber, and numerous kids in the minors that are fighting for the 5th spot.
if nothing else, we could trade slowey or perkins..
and keep liriano, baker, and whoever isnt traded.. and sign a qick fix like last year..
i do not know the names or where i hear it from, but ive read and heard the twins still have tons of pitching in the minors..
thats sort of why i asked about drafting high school players.
why not draft college kids when we are winning. that way we could have another garza in AAA whom could step up or be traded..
otherwise the high school kid is still 2-3 years out and will not bring a big return
i think blackburn, boof, humber, cuddy
any assortment of them 4 could have a nice return.
heck, id send all 4 to colorado if i could get atkins, and tulo
and Tulo? No way is Tulo getting delt. The guy has 5 or 6 years left on a very affordable deal. Barmes is the guy we should be looking at. The guy has a very good glove and has hit very well in stretches. Especially before he was injured leaving the door open for Tulo.
Atkins and Barmes are the two guys the Twins should be looking at. Barmes is a very nice player that most people don’t know about.
MH,
Eight guys of that level won’t get us Tulowitzki.
I hope you aren’t driving while your dreaming.
lol.. tulo would probably cost us blackburn cuddy harris and valencia/hughes.
when you look at the colorado oakland trade..
would that be similiar to gomez, blackburn, neshek?
Atkins can’t hit away from Coors, and after last esason, I think any hitter coming from AAAA (NL) is suspect. I am OK with trading Cuddyer for him because we have four starting outfielders and need to trade one of them, but I don’t see Atkins as more than a short-term solution.
The MLB draft isn’t like other sports. You draft the best player available no matter how old or what position they play. The chances are so slim that they are even going to make it to the league that you draft talent. Garza was extremely unusual with how fast he made it to the bigs. You might never see a Twins prospect move up that fast again.
ok. ill make sure i do not mention Tulo again.
dont need eeryone getting all worked up in here..
ha
The glaring omission (Conveniently omitted for those opposed) of Gleeman’s post is the fact that Atkins has hit 46 homers the past two years (75 the past three) while Harris and Buscher have combined for 24 HR the past two.
This is about adding POWER not average. The Twins need a right handed POWER bat in there between all the lefties, not another powerless singles hitting platoon. Think of how much better the twins line up is with ONE right handed bat in there that will hit 20-30 HR, and the protection that provides for Morneau/Kubel.
Atkins home/road HR splits:
2008: 9H/12A
2007: 10H/15A
2006: 15H/14A
It seems his power is anything BUT Coors dependent.
what i really want.
is someone to show me a player that the twins signed as a free agent or traded for..
that was come to minnesota and hit as many home runs for the twins, as he did with his previous team..
MH
Nic Punto never hit HR’s with the Phillies and he continued that with the Twins!
MH, that’s tough, because usually the Twins don’t trade or sign power guys that are not yet completely washed up. (Tony Batista, Rondell White…) This would finally be at least an attempt at a player in his late 20s, with some time left where he should still be a very productive hitter, not in the twilight of his career.
jama
ha.
i was afraid you would mention adam everett.
hahaha
but seriously, i think the twins hitting approach is so drastically different from alot of teams that it really takes away power numbers.
atkins might hit 25+ for colorado.
but i dont think he would hit that many for the twins..
but then again.. if he hits like 10. thats more then we had last year.
“but seriously, i think the twins hitting approach is so drastically different from alot of teams that it really takes away power numbers.”
That may very well be true…but I’m just so tired of the Twins sitting on their hands when it comes to upgrading offense, I want to see them take a shot because they are not far off from being WS contenders. I think the Young trade was a start and with him still 2-3 years from the average age for a hitters prime, I think that will work out in the long run, but one or two more moves for now has the Twins in really good shape.
and i know delmon is still young . ha. i love saying that!!
but.. last year he had 70 less atbats then the previous year.
the results
- 10 less doubles
- 3 fewer HR’s
- 24 fewer RBI
- 4 more triples
- 9 more walks
- 22 fewer strikouts.
the walks and strikeouts are good to see.
but delmon needs to get back to driving the ball.
Aaron K,
that ESPN “park factor” equation measures just the difference between an individual team’s performance at home vs on the road. It is not a park-related performance. It does not take into the account the performance of the visiting teams that play in a particular park.
Have a look at the “Metrodome” ratings between 2001 and 2008. That decline is huger that Coors field. The Twins are not using a humidor and the dome is not expanding. It is just that their formula measures the wrong thing.
If interested, check this link out about how real park adjustment statistics are measured:
If we really want Atkins, why not put together a good package for Atkins and Street?
[…] Around the Majors – […]
Atkins has hit 46 homers the past two years (75 the past three) while Harris and Buscher have combined for 24 HR the past two.
Even though HRs don’t matter as much as SLG, the comparison should not be between Harris/Buscher and Atkins (because Harris/Buscher needs upgrading to begin with) but between Atkins and other potential targets. And to account for the difference of ABs/year among players, you need to look at AB/HR (lower number better).
So the last 2 years:
(Buscher/Harris 66.1)
Glaus 19.7
Wigginton 20.7
Beltre 22.6
Atkins 26.4 (Coors and all)
Mora 26.5
Kouzmanoff 27.2 (Petco and all)
Blake 28.8
Bill Hall 29.5
I’d rather have any of the first 3 but Mora hits the ball out of the park more that Atkins without playing at Coors, his defense is slightly better than Atkins’ and a AA prospect would probably be enough…
There are clearly better options there.
thrylos,
Then please show me using that statistic that Coors Field has not come back to the pack with the humidor. Coors Field is simply not the launching pad it used to be. Not even close. It does however give up a lot of hits with that big OF.
Brewers looking for pitching and a left handed bat. Perkins, Bonser, Buscher and a prospect for Hardy. Cuddyer and Mulvey for Atkins.Twins lineup: Span,Mauer,Hardy,Morneau,Atkins,Kuble,Young,Casilla,Gomez Reserves:Redmund,Tolbert,Harris,Pridie? Starters:Baker,Liriano,Slowey,Blackburn,Humber Pen:Guerrier,Crain,Breslow,Mijeres,Nathan,Neshek?,+1
from baseball reference using the formula I link to before:
Coors field:
2008 106
2007 109
2006 108
2005 111
2004 120
2003 110
2002 118
—- humidor—
2001 120
average park 100
Metrodome 2008 99
Well, it is clear Coors scoring is way down and is a much more fair ballpark. it will never be a pitchers park, but they have made significant strides. Ultimately what this means to me is Atkins Home/Away splits are less to do with the park then it is just him. Some hitters just hit better at home. Even those that don’t hit in Coors.
Thanks for pulling that data for me, not sure where you got it.
Thrylos,
Other numbers to conisder
Glaus 32
Mora 37
Blake 35.5
Ages these guys will be in spring training, even Glaus at 32 I think is getting old, his days as a 30HR guy are probably gone…but if we want to go down the road of signing guys on their last legs, fine, it’s worked out so well in the past, I promise not to say I told you so.
Beltre you can’t have for more than 09 because of Boras.
Hall has hit 20 HRs exactly once and over .270 exactly once (with OPS+ of 89 and 79 the last two years).
Kouzmanoff and Wigginton wouldn’t be bad, but if you want to talk about hitter friendly parks, lets start with Wiggington in Houston.
I think Blake is the best short-term option at third.I think Cutty can work into a four man outfield rotation and relieve Justin at first and get some bats at DH.Cutty been hurt for 2 years,let’s see if he can recapture the year he had in 06.Does anyone think that Hudson is worth giving up a #1 draft choice for,sliding Cassila over to short?Souhan thinks Tolbert is a good bet at short,Thoughts!
MLBTraderumors says the Rockies are prepared to trade Street to another team. Maybe we are going to trade for Atkins & Street. Wonder what we’ll have to give up for that? Cuddy and a starter? Hopefully Slowey and not Blackburn.
