Thursday update: Silver Sluggers, Gardenhire, Beltre and my Cy Young ballot
Posted on November 13th, 2008 – 3:02 PMBy Joe Christensen
Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau each won a Silver Slugger Award today, as the top hitters at their positions. Both won Silver Sluggers in 2006, as well.
(*) Spoke to Twins manager Ron Gardenhire about his two-year extension: “My only goal that I have now is to win a World Series with the Twins,” he said. ”I was there as a coach [in 1991] and almost there as a player in ‘87, but I really want to win a world championship as a manager.
“I think getting to that new ballpark [in 2010] and maybe getting to where we can keep our players a little bit longer – I think that’s going to be huge. This ballclub is very young over here, and we did a lot this year. Anything can happen once you get going. A couple of the right pieces, and we could be on our way.”
(*) One name I’ve been forgetting when listing possible offseason targets for the Twins is Mariners 3B Adrian Beltre. The Twins tried trading for him during the season, and their interest certainly hasn’t waned.
Beltre, a two-time Gold Glove winner, is under contract for one more season at $12 million, and there’s some thought that new Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik would be open to trading him for a young outfielder. But the Mariners are in the process of hiring a manager, and they probably want to resolve that situation first.
Anyway, Beltre ranks ahead of Garrett Atkins on the Twins’ wish list.
(*) Finally, as promised, here’s my Cy Young ballot, now that Cliff Lee has officially been crowned the winner:
1. Roy Halladay; 2. Cliff Lee; 3. Francisco Rodriguez
Lee went 22-3 and led the AL with a 2.54 ERA, but here are my reasons for putting Halladay (20-11, 2.78) ahead of him:
1. There’s more to this than won-loss record. Halladay’s run support average was 4.72. Lee’s was 6.13. The Blue Jays scored 23 runs combined in Halladay’s 11 losses. They lost 13 times when Halladay took the mound, but in those games, they scored 15 runs while he was in the game, over 91 innings.
2. Halladay faced tougher competition, mostly because of all the starts against Tampa Bay, Boston and New York. He was 10-6 with a 2.96 ERA in 16 starts against that AL East trio, averaging 7 1/3 innings per start. Lee went 5-0 with a 2.63 ERA against the Royals.
According to Baseball Prospectus, the batters Halladay faced averaged a .766 OPS. That ranked second among all pitchers with at least 150 innings pitched to Matt Garza (.767). Lee ranked 60th on that list, at .735.
3. Lee led all qualifying pitchers with a 5.28 strikeout-to-walk ratio — 206 strikeouts, 39 walks. Lee had 170 strikeouts and 33 walks.
4. Lee had a very impressive WHIP (walks and hits per innings pitched) at 1.11. Halladay’s was better, at 1.05. That led all pitchers who qualified for the ERA title.
5. Halladay was the bigger workhorse. He led the AL in innings pitched 246 innings (Lee had 223 1/3) and in complete games with nine (Lee had four). Halladay made every start and even took the ball in relief May 18 at Philadelphia, pitching 2 1/3 scoreless innings for the hold.
Lee missed his final start (Sept. 28 vs. Chicago) because of neck stiffness, and Cleveland sent Bryan Bullington to the mound in its final game of the season. The White Sox won 5-1, remaining tied with the Twins atop the AL Central.
When it came time to make a tough decision between Halladay and Lee, this weighed into my thoughts, but as the above points show, a good case could have been made for Halladay anyway.
66 Responses to "Thursday update: Silver Sluggers, Gardenhire, Beltre and my Cy Young ballot"
It’s going to cost an awful lot to get Beltre and he will probably bolt for the Yankees or Mets after one year.
I hate to say it but I like the idea of overpaying for Blake and keeping our four outfielders. That way we have a bopper at third and some depth on the bench.
Congrats to Joe and Justin … obviously 2 of the best players in the game.
I would do back flips over Atkins. Beltre is under contract for one more year (Atkins, 2) and Atkins has been a better run producer and power hitter the past 2 or 3 seasons.
He’s #1 on my wish list, followed by JJ Hardy.
Would be hard for many to swallow, but I would trade Delmon or Gomez for Beltre if we could sign him for 3 years. We should have the revenue with the new stadium coming up to afford Beltre.
If not platoon Buscher/Harris and trade for JJ Hardy.
We’re 1-2 star players away from not only winning the division, but actually making a pushin the playoffs…let’s gear up for the next 2-3 years when this core of players is at their peak.
Beltre or Hardy would help, but we won’t get both.
Casey Blake is not a bopper.
Compared to the other free agent third basemen available he’s the closest thing to a bopper out there.
I’m all in favor of Hardy or Escobar at SS. Both are young and talented. Platoon at 3rd, or take a flier on Crede.
Atkins is extremely overrated
looking at blake’s and beltre’s numbers i was surprised to see blake may be slightly better, and would be cheaper.
blake 21-81, .274/.345/.463, *ops+ 110
beltre 25-77, .266/.327/.457, *ops+ 109
probably not as good in the field but we got by with buscher.
then maybe take a flyer on green and see if he can come back from a bad yr. he would probably come fairly cheap, maybe a boof?
save a bunch of prospects.
If you platoon at 3B…and want to trade for JJ Hardy at SS - who would you realistically trade to get him - AND that the Brewers would actually accept?
And Boof, Punto, Bass, Vavra don’t count either ~
way to go Joe !! at least there is one sports writer that gets it. Halladay should’ve won the Cy Young. I hate that the majority of sports writers are clueless and vote based on win totals. Wins are a TEAM stat, not a pitcher stat.
E7, I’m not unrealistic like some on this site. I would give up more for Hardy than Escobar obviously. To me Baker is untouchable, but all other options are possible. It makes more sense trading for a young guy with upside, than trading for one year of Beltre.
Jon says:
November 13th, 2008 at 3:33 pm
I’m all in favor of Hardy or Escobar at SS. Both are young and talented. Platoon at 3rd, or take a flier on Crede.
Atkins is extremely overrated
Escobar is overrated, Atkins is slightly underrated. Also, Atkins has more career homers on the road then at home. His average isnt’ as good, but so what. The Twins need guys that can hit homers, not singles.
Thanks for actually putting thought into who you voted for, Joe. I don’t have a problem with Lee winning but I’m sick of all the after-season awards not meaning anything because coaches/journalists don’t care enough to do any research.
Viva la Beltre and/or Hardy.
Atkins wears his glove on his foot.
JOe:
Don’t make this too difficult. He went 22-3……22 and 3! And his ERA is better. Cliff Lee deserves the Cy Young.
Sorry Joe, but you already stated a month or so ago that you were voting against Lee because he didn’t start his last game, which hurt the Twins. I certainly hope they don’t give you votes in the future, since you waste them for spite.
Tough schedule or not, losing eight more games shouldn’t earn Halladay a Cy Young vote.
gobbledygookguy-
Beltre played a majority of the season injured and is the best defensive 3B in the league. There’s no question Beltre is the superior player.
“It’s going to cost an awful lot to get Beltre and he will probably bolt for the Yankees or Mets after one year.”
I’m pretty sure the Yankees and Mets are both set at 3B for many, many years to come. I get your drift though.
So Joe, you’re able to look past the win loss record (and ERA) and and vote for Halliday over Lee, but you can’t look past the gaudy saves total for Rodriguez at third place? There are probably 5+ relievers in the league who would have racked up those save numbers if given the same opportunity. Relievers shouldn’t get Cy Young awards.
Christenson voting for anyone other than Cliff Lee proves once again that he is a freaking idiot.
I think the matt holiday set the market for a 1 year rental player. Holiday had a better year than Beltre across the board and both will more than likely receive type a status. If we can gleen anything from what Oakland gave up that would require us to trade Seattle 1) decent arm, 4th-5th starter range 2) quality young established bullpen pitcher 3) High ceiling yet unproven player. If that were going to be the cost for Beltre than I do not think the Twins match up very well, but since Holiday is the better player the cost should be less.
Cliff Lee was 5-0 against the Royals and played in a central division that had a very down year this year. Halladay pitched in arguably the best division in baseball and manage to win 20 games with under a 3.0 era… he’s definately Cy Young in my book.
Also the Twins may want to look into a stop gap at 3rd base and pursue a trade for a SS. Luke Hughes could be the 3rd base prospect the Twins are looking for and scouts at the Futures Game said he was one of the most impressive players there with line drive power to all fields. Perhaps a Boof Bonser and Glen Perkins and a lower level prospect would be enough to get Hardy here
Brent - potential solution is to trade Delmon for Beltre and give an extension. The perception around the league is Delmon fits the “high ceiling, unproven” category. Plus Seattle needs an outfielder. IMHO I think Delmon is a bust despite his youth. We have the extra outfielder - get some power…
Boof and Perk for JJ will never fly. They will want 1 probably 2 front line arms from us - especially if they lose CC and Sheets. They are smarting from the past 2 dissapointing seasons where they were close but not quite there - and their expectation is to go beyond. Boof and Perk don’t get them there…However, if they offer JJ for those two, take and run!
patrick, beltre would also cost a couple players and 12m for a yr while they might get blake for free and 12m over 2 yrs. the draft picks you may get for beltre in 2010 may not be ready, if ever, until 2014-5.
imo there isn’t enough diff to justify the cost.
Reliever Kevin Gregg and his 29 saves traded from the Marlins to the Cubs for a minor league pitcher. I wonder if the Twins were even in negotiations for this guy? Do you think we could have landed him for a young pitcher or two. Our bullpen certainly needs help.
bufftwins, I agree. We should take a look at Juan Cruz from the Diamondbacks. Strike out pitcher with decent control.
I remember 2006 when Bonser and Liriano pitched in the same series against Milwaukee, the Brewers were not impressed with Boof whatsoever. No way the Crew takes Bonser except as a throw in.
So Joe, you’re able to look past the win loss record (and ERA) and and vote for Halliday over Lee, but you can’t look past the gaudy saves total for Rodriguez at third place? There are probably 5+ relievers in the league who would have racked up those save numbers if given the same opportunity. Relievers shouldn’t get Cy Young awards.
I approve of this message.
Joe is most certainly not an idiot for voting for Halliday. I tend to agree with him. Though a vote for Lee is certainly defensible, given the significant difference in the level of competition the two faced, there’s a very strong argument to be made for Halliday.
I’d hate to trade either Liriano or Baker to get Hardy. If those two develop the way they potentially can, we won’t need Hardy’s extra offense.
I’d hate to trade either Liriano or Baker to get Hardy. If those develop the way they potentially can, we won’t need Hardy’s extra offense.
My thoguhts on priorites this off season:
1st - trade for JJ Hardy and either sign Blake or platoon Harris/Buscher whichever…
2nd - if you can’t get Hardy, trade Delmon (or if you can Cuddy) for Beltre. Great if you can get Seattle to pick up some cash, or sign Beltre to an extension.
3rd - trade for a stud 8th inning guy like Brandon League/Jays.
would the brewers do straight up JJ Hardy for Delmon young?
That would be boss if they did.
[…] Around the Majors – […]
How can you put Rodriguez your third place vote? That is ridiculous. Nathan and Rivera both had better seasons than K-Rod. I don’t agree with Halliday getting your first place vote but I understand it. Can you please explain your putting K-Rod #3.
Nasty, that would be great but with Braun and Hart at the corner OF spots in Milwaukee they probably would have no interest in Delmon…
Otherwise that would be great !!
Milwaukee needs pitching and possibly a CF if they trade Cameron to the Yanks.
How about Delaney, Perkins and Pridie for JJ.
trading Delmon 4 Beltr won’t happen..
Is there baseball people here?
Win Twins!
There is no way, the Brewers make any kind of deal without pitching being involved. That is the only reason they would make a trade is to bring in a starting pitcher.
Delmon is not going to be traded so we can stop talking about that.
I truly believe the best option for the Twins, is to try to make a trade for JJ Hardy. He is young at 26 and has potential to hit 30 hrs. probably more realistic around 25+ and 100 RBI, he is a solid defender at SS and seems like a winner.
I like Atkins for what he is, but that is not what the Twins need, they need someone who has proven they can hit other than one place (Coors Field).
This offseason will hopefully be just as entertaining as last season. Lets hope!!!!
GO TWINS!!!!!!
Brewers looking to trade center fielder Cameron to the Yankees. Twins offer Span and Perkins to Brewers for Hardy.Span would fill their need for a left handed batter and center fielder,would receive a young quality starter and provide them the option to negotiate with the Yanks. Twins would give up quality players but that is the only realistic way to land Hardy. The twins are trading away from positions were they are deep. Gomez,Revere and Hicks are all promising centerfielders. Hardy’s addition will far outweigh the loss.
Atkins is REALLY overrated. He hits more homeruns at home, but thats it. His average is putrid anywhere outside of Colorado. And his defense is mediocre. I dont think it was last year, maybe the year before, his average was almost 100 points lower on the road. 100!!! thats a lot. If you can get Atkins cheap, go for it. But realistically we are going to have to give up a decent player and Atkins will maybe, maybe put up close to Cuddyer numbers, but with less of an average and not much defense.
I also agree on Lee vs. Halladay. Halladay is a stud on a team that is bad. Nothing wrong with Lee, but Halladay had at least as good of a year as Lee.
I do believe Span, Perkins is a realistic offer, although after considerable thought I would prefer K Greene of San Diego. JJ does not have soft hands and is a streak hitter.
3rd base- Beltre number one option, but I will take Atkins over Blake, neither is a defensive upgrade and two years of Atkins is better than three years of Blake.
I believe more in Atkins than his splits indicate offensively.
I fall into the Halladay camp. I actually had him on my fantasy team, so watched his starts very closely. He’d pitch in Fenway or Yankee Stadium and I’d shy away from starting him - only to have him win or get a ND. One of his losses was 1-0 in Fenway, when Boston scored in the bottom of the ninth to beat him. Lee would have already been showered at that point…
Another way to judge the two: If you had your pick of one of them to start game 163 this year, who do you take? Lee has the nice record, but I go with Halladay EVERY time. The dude has guts, ala Jack Morris. Lee is the type that gets pissed when guys try to bunt on him for hits. What the hell is THAT about ???
We’ve seen how records influence the writers. Look at Colon getting the Cy over Johan a few years ago. Johan had all those ND’s, which hurt his win total, but he was better than Colon in most all catagories. Most people agree Johan actually pitched better that year, than when he DID win the Cy the following season.
this is fun, isn’t it? what if the twins went all in at over 100 mil, who would you want? I’ll bet they would make some money!
Lee vs Halladay: Goes to show that W-L record are overrated SP metrics. W-L can only be viewed in context of how the rest of the team contributed to each W-L scenario for each pitcher. They both had great years, but I agree with previous bloggers about Halladay being the horse. I would much rather have him pitching the 7th playoff game than Cliff “my neck hurts too much BS” Lee….
Kerry Wood anyone?
Buscher hit .294. Didn’t anyone notice that? Third base is not exactly in shambles. There is more available in the trade market than some guy (Atkins or Blake) whose numbers are going to be a minimum upgrade from Buscher/Harris. Look for Hardy or Escobar. Everybody but the Twins need pitching. Bonser may not draw much interest, but Humber, Mulvey, Duensing and Swarzak would all be intriguing to most GMs.
Yea, Lee’s pretty much crap.
6 ND’s…in 4 he left the game with the lead, in the other 2 he pitched a shutout through 9 inn, and allowed 1 run through 8 inn in the other, both games went to extra’s.
Halladay had 2 ND’s, in neither did he leave the game with the lead. One was a shutout through 7 innings.
I realize W/L isn’t a reliable stastic. I guess if Halladay had 2/3 more losses he would have won hands down. 8 more losses on a team with 5 more wins than the Indians is a demonstration of pitching for a very poor team?
Regards,
Regards,
Cliff Lee was the best pitcher in the American league this year. His ERA and win/loss cannot be discounted. Halladay is the man and has better “stuff” but his numbers don’t beat 22-3!!!WOW!!
Forget Beltre.
Get Atkins.
Sign Christian Guzman.
Shore up the BP!!
We can get Atkins for Cuddy and prospect pitchers. Then we keep our five young starters, our three young outfielders, and add right-handed pop at third that we haven’t had since Koskie.
Then bring guzman back…I know…but he’s developed into a good hitter…imagine him hitting over .300 batting eighth for us.
1.Span RF
2.Cassila 2B
3.Mauer C
4.Morneau 1B
5.Atkins 3B
6.Kubel DH
7.Young LF
8.Guzman SS
9.Gomez CF
This line-up would win us the division if the BP is solidified.
Starting Rotation
1. Baker
2. Liriano
3. Slowey
4. Blackburn
5. Perkins
Bullpen (assuming a crain rebound & guerrier flop)
1. Nathan
2. Mijares
3. Breslow
4. Crain
5. Bonser
6. Humber
7. ??MOST IMPORTANT OFF-SEASON HOLE TO FILL.
maybe the twins should go after farnsworth to fill nesheks void.
Shameless - Swarzak in that number 7 spot, if not one of the others. The Twins have some real talent coming up. Still like spending some of it on Escobar or Hardy. Morales hit like .314 in AAA, too. The Twins are probably good for a catcher for the next few years, so Morales becomes trade bait.
Beltre was a viable option last year when he could of helped in the division race AND been around for this year. As is, I think we all agree that he will be gone after 2009. If the Twins go this route, they move into the new stadium in 2010 minus a 3rd baseman, minus one of the current starters and minus whatever else they have to give up to get him. This is such a bad move. The team will be worse off than it is now. I would do nothing before I would do a trade for Beltre.
A lot of people like Atkins. While his numbers certainly look good, his splits are horrible and he’s been declining over the past two seasons. A lot his potential value would also be eradicated by what the team would have to give up pitching wise to get him. Atkins is also due for a raise via arbitration.
Finally, if the team trades for a 3rd baseman, it will be much harder to pursue a shortstop or bullpen help. You will be drastically limiting your options.
Blake is the best choice. He’s a little old, but there is no sign that he’s slowing down at all. He’s got a little pop in his bat and can be used to protect Morneau in the line up. It would sure be nice to see Morneau hit 30+ homers again. Add in the roughly 20 dingers Blake is likely to hit and that is a pretty good upgrade. And best of all, you don’t have to give up anything to get him - not even a draft pick. The Twins would still have all their potential trade chips to go after a stud shortstop and/or bullpen help.
Blake is simply the smartest choice. They should cut a deal as soon as possible, so they can focus on Short and the bullpen.
JC, kudos to you for having the guts to revisit CY voting with your actual vote. I’d been waiting for the CY results to see if you would reveal your vote given your comments before Game 161 for Sox. I’m sure I’m not the only one who remembers and I’m sure some bloggers would have called you on it if you had been silent about your actual vote. But you still would not have had to reply.
Your analysis is good logic but I’m afraid it’s beating a very dead horse. I seriously doubt many of your BBWAA colleagues put much weight on difficulty of competition, etc. etc. Whattheheck, they give way too much weight to W-L, a team stat not controlled solely by the SP!!
Wow, someone still thinkning Cliff Lee screwed the Twins by not making that lat start? Twins blew all by themselved by not taking 2 of 3 from KC AND deciding not to bring any bats to Chicago.
JJ Hardy is the best choice. He is solid with the glove, and much to T’s surprise the other day he is a SS who hits for power.
Atkins worries me with being a Rockie and hitting at Coors. But if can hit everywhere it would make up for his defensive issues.
BTW Koskie hit left-handed.
Any talks with Houston for Jose Valverde? Houston sounds like want to cut some money and Valverde would only cost $4.7 million. Maybe we could do a deal like the Cubs did for Gregg.
Valverde will cost much more than a minor leaguer. How many teams needing a closer @ $4.7 million would want that deal? 44 saves last year, hmmm, maybe every one of them?
Valverde and Gregg are 2 different beasts. Gregg is not much better than Crain.
I still think the off season starts with trying to obtain JJ Hardy and anchoring our SS position for hopefully many years.
As someone else posted here recently the Brewers probably won’t keep both CC and Sheets this offseason so they will want at least some pitching in return. The Brewers are also really smarting after high expectations the last 2 years and falling just short. They will want a train robbery to consider losing a strong, starting SS in Hardy. I think that equals 2-3 players in return.
The Brewers also would then have a need for a serviceable SS to replace Hardy and might entertain a center fielder because they are strong at the corner OF spots. So here goes my trade proposal:
1) Trade whoever you like least to them for CF (Gomez or Span). Tough choice, but my vote is to keep Span regardless of all the passionate talk about Gomez’s upside. I just don’t think he’ll ever have the batting average/OBP to be as impactful as we all hope. But whatever…
2) Throw in a SS option for them (Tolbert, Harris)?
3) Then give them an arm - this will hurt, but maybe in conjunction with the above 2 players we could part with only a Blackburn or Perkins instead of a front line pitcher like Baker, Slowey, etc.
This is giving up a lot for one player, but I don’t think the Brewers realistically will take any less.
Okay pick it apart boys…or if you have any better (and realistic) ideas, let’s hear it…
How about we go after Furcal to play SS and trade for Hardy to play 3B. That would give us a lineup!!!
We have excess of outfielders so trade one of the CF’s plus one pitcher straight up for Hardy. But if it has to be Baker, Slowey or Frankie….I wouldn’t do it.
See if they would take 2 lesser pitchers straight up instead of one good one (Blackburn or Perk + Humber). Keep the CF’s for now…
??
Jake, don’t know if Hardy would be right for 3B, but sounds great on paper.
Who do you give up as trade bait?
A Cy Young pitcher should want the ball for his biggest game of the season. Cliff Lee did not.
Let’s go after Smoltz if he’ll return to the bullpen. Pridie should be included in any trade, scouts like him and he has no future here. If healthy, Crede is the best option for 3B (the proof is his year against the Twins). To the Twins FO, let Punto walk!!
“Valverde and Gregg are 2 different beasts. Gregg is not much better than Crain.”
I couldn’t agree more. Gregg is bad. He couldn’t keep the closing job in Florida, and that’s with no other great options around him. I wouldn’t want him, especially since Keith Law says the Cubs gave up a great prospect to get him.
