Ty Wigginton: A closer look
Posted on December 16th, 2008 – 12:12 PMBy Joe Christensen
Still no indications the Twins have expressed interest in Ty Wigginton, though we’ve been told they like him. La Velle reported Sunday that the Giants, Pirates and Indians are all in the mix.
A few facts about Wiggy, who was featured in our 2007 Trade Target Series, when he was playing for Tampa Bay:
Age: 31 (Turns 32 on Oct. 11)
Bats: Right
Salary: He made $4.35 million this year and the Astros non-tendered him because he was due to make about $7 million through arbitration. Wigginton is now a free agent and is probably looking for a three-year deal.
2008: He batted .285/.350/.526 with 22 doubles and 23 homers with the Astros, very impressive. An OPS+ of 128. He was limited to 111 games because of injuries to his left thumb, rib cage and groin.
Inside those stats: Big red flag here, as Wigginton thrived at Minute Maid Park, which is especially friendly to righthanded hitters. He batted .343/.390/.691 at home, compared to .234/.316/.380 on the road.
Defense: I’ve read mixed reviews, but I believe there’s a reason he has not been handed an everyday third base job and told to run with it. One of his assets is his versatility, as he can also play second base and first base. He started 74 games at third base for Houston this year.
411 Responses to "Ty Wigginton: A closer look"
I still would love to see some power at the corner infield spots. Wiggy is the best available for that, unless a trade for Atkins somehow re-emerges.
Also, how about re-visit Escobar to play SS now that the Braves signed Furcal? Or does the sigining of LNP kill any thoughts of upgrading at SS?
So would the Home/Road splits be a deal breaker? I know it was a concern when people were discussing a possible Atkins trade.
Joe,
Do you know how many of Wiggy’s HR’s were hit at the short porch in Minute Maid Park?
.234 on the road isn’t that much worse than Buscher’s total BA. hahaha
It’s a fair question to ask… but Wigginton hit 8 HR on the road in 59 games (15 at home). Even at his road game pace, that’s close to 20 HR over 162 games.
I think the third year will be a big issue here as it was with Blake. I think the Twins realize they are going to need to dedicate some money to their pitchers and M & M. They would probably like to add money at third for this year and maybe next but would like to have a young cheap guy there by the third year.
Wow those are some bad road numbers. I think a lot of people forgot that hitting at minute maid park is as easy as coors. Thanks Joe.
Thanks Jim,
I still say do it if the price is right. I think Wiggy and Atkins are a very fair comparison offensively, and defensively. Wiggy only costs $$, Atkins costs prospects, and will cost $$$ starting in 2010
[…] Around the Majors – […]
Atkins would also cost players in a trade (and Colo typically asks for too much in trades), which Wigginton would not.
“Also, how about re-visit Escobar to play SS now that the Braves signed Furcal? Or does the sigining of LNP kill any thoughts of upgrading at SS?”
The Braves apparently signed Furcal to play 2B - moving Kelly Johnson to the OF
Jon - you got it.
our left field isnt all that far out either - its called the HR porch for a reason. if anything he gets a lot more doubles which isnt a bad thing.
Wiggy put up some nice numbers with the Devil Rays, so he isn’t completely an Enron Field creation.
He hits RHP about as well as Buscher, so he wouldn’t need be platooned in the traditionally right/left sense. Sign him, start him at 3B 130 times next season, but sub in Tolbert for D when we get a late lead.
Our top 4 offensive players from last season (M&M, Span, Kubel) are all lefties. Wiggy mashes LHP, so he’d be a great fit.
Wiggington, 2006-08
OPS vs. LHP: .957
OPS vs. RHP: .780
Buscher in ‘08:
OPS vs. LHP: .455
OPS vs. RHP: .799
Sign him.
wow, interesting stat on Wiggy vs. lefties, thx
That story about the H/R spits is a bit incomplete:
in 2006 playing in hitter unfriendly Tropicana Field he had a total line of .275/.330/.498 with 24 HR
in 2004 in the even more hitter unfriendly Shea stadium he had a .285/.334/.487 line with 12 HR in 86 games (was traded to the Pirates mid-season)
His career home/road OPS splits are .820/.763 no matter what park he calls home.
And (even more importantly) he hits a career .288/.364/.514 off LHP (remember any Twin recently close to those numbers off lefties?) and last season Wiggy was a ridiculous .340/.424/.631 off lefties
Justin, I think the third year was a bigger issue with Blake because of his age. If Wigginton were to sign here for three years, he’d only be as old as Blake is NOW by the time he was due for a new contract.
Would either player be an upgrade offensively.
Buscher/Harris (as third basemen) had a combined .300 avg, hit 22 2B, 5 HR, 59 RBI, and 43 R in only 98 games.
One more important split:
Wiggy career at the Metrodome:
.314/.368/.486
not too shabby
A .696 ops on the road is not a good sign. Still, his career ops is .790. Also, when he was with the Pirates in 2005, he was horrible at home and good on the road. The bottom line is that this is a guy who has some power (4 years with more than 20 HR). He’s not going to psark any comparisons to Brooks Robinson (or even Corey Koskie)in the field, but the club simply has to do something about the perennial lack of power production. IMO, if we can sacrifice offenze to have Punto play SS, we can sacrifice some D at 3B to get some offense.
Maybe I should proof read before I post. Sorry about the “fat fingers.”
It just seems like whatever 3B is the topic/target of discussion, a bunch of people are going to instantly look for reasons NOT to go get that guy. You can find statistical reasons not to acquire just about anyone. If your goal is to justify doing nothing, that’s fine.
But I thought the Twins wanted to at least try to improve themselves this offseason and while getting better seasons out of a few guys MIGHT have that result, it’s not something you can count on.
Given that the Dome has developed a reputation as more of a pitchers’ park, I’m a bit concerned that Wigginton might be tough to convince to sign with the Twins. I suppose it will come down to what real options he has.
matt,
5 HRs is the name of the game. Corner infielders should at least have some pop. Wiggy is a 20hr+ guy.
Good analysis, thrylos.
we can sacrifice some D at 3B to get some offense.
I don’t think getting Buscher off the field will be sacrificing D at 3B no matter who major league third baseman replaces him
Thry “(And (even more importantly) he hits a career .288/.364/.514 off LHP (remember any Twin recently close to those numbers off lefties?))”
.284 .324 .453
.361 .415 .525
.283 .402 .472
those are the vs. lefty numbers last year for Morneau (the clubber), Mauer (the freak) and Span (mr lasik), respectively 
Sports Columnists are like politicians..
always quick to criticize every move, but rarely offering a viable solution.
Joe C, lets play a game. I’ll give you $24 million over 3 years, if you were GM, tell us exactly what you would do.
Would you;
1. Sign which available free agent(s)
2. Make trade(s) that actually have a chance of being accepted
3. Stand pat and save the money.
Let’s use your projected 25-man roster as the starting point.
Anybody else feel free to play too. Don’t criticize others moves, just tell us exactly your plan.
good points Jim. With only one year left of the dome, I would hope that is a non-issue
Home/Road splits are an obvious concern, but remember that most players hit better at home.
If you take MLB as a whole, there was a .039 home OPS advantage in 2008, and for the AL it was .050. That’s 50 points of OPS as the average, so consider that when you compare home/road splits.
For the Twins last year, they had a team OPS .055 higher at home.
Wigginton had a huge split last year, but for his career he’s a .276/.336/.484 = .820 hitter at home, and a .265/.325/.438 = .763 hitter on the road.
SD Mike,
Wiggy at 3 years $20MM (hopefully enough), and Juan Cruz 2 years $4MM. Done.
Jon
If Juan Cruz was available for 2 years 4 mill we’d have signed him already. I have a feeling he’s looking for at least affeldt money (4+ mill)
Last years splits vs. career numbers.
@#$%@#$%@#$% last years splits!!!!!!
Jon,
Don’t forget to tell us who you would remove from the 25-man roster and how.
medschoolmatt,
You’re right on the Cruz amount. 2 years probably cost $6-8MM
SD Mike,
Buscher and Bonser for a bag of baseballs and a Dome Dog.
Sane
don’t forget to take your midol
My plan
I’d offer Wiggy two years with a club option for a third…given the other teams supposed interest he’d probably turn it down. I’d go into the season with Harris/Buscher, with the ability to reevaluate towards the trading deadline. Atkins or Beltre could come cheaper there, or maybe someone else, also there could be a minor leauguer who shows that they are ready. I also think that the twins will take this exact approach. It gives more time to evaluate what he have with Buscher/Harris, our minor leaguers, as well is what is going to happen in the outfield.
SD Mike,
“Don’t forget to tell us who you would remove from the 25-man roster and how”
From JoeC’s 25-man-roster, remove Jason Pridie.
By kidnapping, if necessary.
Thry, the “sacrifice some D” comment was meant not as a commentary on the gold glove D we get out of Buscher, but a response to Joe C’s mild criticism of Wiggington’s glove. I’m just saying the guy’s D is not that important in light of the RH power he brings to the table.
Plus, we don’t need D from Wiggy. We re-signed future Hall of Famer Nick Punto
I have a hard time imagining how Wigginton’s D could be much worse than Buscher’s.
meds,
Is Midol a prescribed treatment for my Tourette’s problem?
a wiggy/buscher platoon with wiggy getting most of the starts would be ideal, depending on the cost. if it doesn’t cost more than 2 years, 12-14 mil, i say go for it. then, harris can be the ultra-utility guy, backing up punto and casilla, in case either takes a nose dive this year (which very well could happen). i think that’s the best idea, as wiggy mashes left handers.
Maybe no move is a good move. Just take a look at some opinions from last offseason:
“JimCrikket says:
December 14th, 2007 at 5:21 pm
If TR would have picked up Lamb at the trade deadline last season, people would have been very pleased. He’s arguably the best 3B available and the Twins didn’t have to give up anyone to get him. There’s certainly some question as to whether he can play 150 games, but until someone can give me a truly viable better option (unless you’re just going to toss 2008 away and audition AAA guys like Buscher), I’ll take this deal.
Lamb, Everett, and Harris is a group I’ll take over Punto, Bartlett and Castillo/Casilla any day and every day.”
And you can throw all the past numbers at me you want … but people did the same thing last year with Lamb:
“thrylos98 says:
December 14th, 2007 at 9:12 pm
Some numbers: (BA/OBP/SLG)
2007:
Twins 3B (Punto): .210/.291/.271
Mike Lamb: .289/.366/.453
2006:
Twins 3B (Punto): .290/.352/.373
Mike Lamb: .307/.361/.475
2005:
Twins 3B (Cuddyer): .263/.330/.422
Mike Lamb: .236/.284/.419
2004:
Twins 3B (Koskie): .251/.342/.495
Mike Lamb: .288/.356/.511
Definite offensive improvement.”
Well, since SD Mike says we have a budget of $24 million over 3 years to improve at 3B, I’d do my best to sing Wiggington somewhere in the $20-22 million range over 3 years with 2 years being guaranteed and the third a club option. The odd man out would be Pridie (why do we need 6 OF, particularly when Super LNP can play the OF?). I feel for Pridie, but its starting the year at AAA or getting traded for a bucket of balls and some pine tar.
Can’t wait for the Twins to start spending money now that they can start looking forward to all of this additional revenue from the new stadium, mostly funded by taxpaying Twins fans….
Cheap Pohlad and son will probably dump payroll thinking if he puts it under his (CP’s) matress it will get him closer to heaven
if sane cannot stay “sane” there is no hope for the rest of us clowns.
We already signed this guy last year, his name was Mike Lamb
Matt: Lambs’ just further proof that what looks like the obvious solution one day doesn’t seem as such once it plays out.
People thought the Twins were going to regret losing Bartlett. Quite honestly I don’t think that was the case. Harris & Punto put together comparable numbers to the Rays’ MVP for the Twins.
And no, the Rays going to the postseason had more to do with Longoria, Upton, Garza, and even Balfour than it did Bartlett.
Wigginton = Injury-proned Mike Lamb
matt, yes it is a crapshoot. I don’t feel any different now about the addition of Lamb last year. As others have pointed out, he most likely was the best FA 3B option on the market and it I gave (and still give) the FO credit for taking that chance on Lamb. Sometimes, it doesn’t work out… and while while there are differences between Wigginton and Lamb, the common factor is that at this point in time, Wigginton is the best FA option available.
The lesson learned is that the “best option available” doesn’t assure success.
matt,
If you are going to resurrect our year-old posts, I’d like to point out that I have been the recipient of a brain transplant since last season.
I’ve been told that the donor was a High School graduate.
matt anything on LaPAnta anywhere in those old post was a jimmy bee moniker hijacker. I can not be held responsible for the taxidermy posts
“Average Joe says:
December 16th, 2008 at 1:38 pm
“Wigginton = Injury-proned Mike Lamb”
In my opinion, THAT opinion was below average Joe.
Kouzmanoff! Kouzmanoff! Kouzmanoff!
The Twins, showen with Blake, are not looking for a long-term thirdbaseman. Otherwise, go with Blake and shuffle him into the reserve/DH role towards the end of Year Two and all of Year Three.
The Mike Lamb concept brings up interesting comparisons. Thought Lamb would produce much better, even in a part-time role, than he did. And the Twins were looking at him for two years, but cut the rope early.
If you sign Ty, do you bother doing anything with Buscher? What is the third base backup if you don’t have Buscher…Harris, Machado, Tolbert, is Hughes really a third base prospect? The bonafides are still a season or two away (Plouffe, Winfree, Valencia).
For what the Twins are paying Cuddyer he should be forced to play third base. Gardenhire should sit him down and tell him he has to take 500 ground balls a day starting tomorrow. And if he’s going to hit .260 to .270, he better have at least 30 home runs. Under 30, and he better be batting over .300 and have VERY few errors. Earn those millions Michael.
rosterman,
IMO Harris will be a very good backup and an adequate starter at 3B.
“Patrick says:
December 16th, 2008 at 1:49 pm
Kouzmanoff! Kouzmanoff! Kouzmanoff!”
I wish Patrick. I feel like the twins big signing this offseason is LNP. One and done
lamb career ave over 162 gms: 12 hr, 69 rbi
wiggy: 23 hr, 79 rbi
not a very valid comparison if you’re looking for hr.
trade young for kouz and save carl’s money. times are tight!
Hey, the Twins took a chance on him. We need help. He(Cuddyer)should step up and say, “I can do this.”
“For what the Twins are paying Cuddyer he should be forced to play third base. Gardenhire should sit him down and tell him he has to take 500 ground balls a day starting tomorrow”
And for what Morneau is being paid he should be a MR on days off. He should be forced out there and practice the Eephus pitch now dammit. Get earning those millions Justin
Sane
Haldol would help you
I think Matt should get post of the day
JC: Maybe the Twins should gamble that the reverse could happen and sign the worst 3B option available.
…Or was that what the Nick Punto singning was. 
And as far as Brando’s mentality: The Cuddyer at 3B experiement is long since dead. His value to this team is now with that cannon out in RF.
Brando,
If, while referring to his playing 3B, Cuddyer was to say “I can do this”; he could be charged with perjury.
Don’t see anything wrong with thetwins offering Ty a three year deal.
Is it possible that the Twins are incapable of signing a good free agent regardless of there potential?
I should add that if you think about it…Cuddy started at 2B, then moved to 3B, and ultimatly wound up in RF.
The Twins basically kept backing him up further and further until he couldn’t overshoot the guy he was throwing to anymore…
BC: If you’re offering matt the post of the day, then I think you’d be better off arguging that it wouldn’t matter who the Twins sign, because they’d start to suck afterwards.
T,
When they moved Cuddy from 2B to 3B, they were heading toward the dugout.
I think Cuddyer will have a decent season this year. I think he will have something to prove after last season. If he plays well it would be a big boost to the team.
I’m still not so sure the Twins didn’t make Cuddyer the bullpen catcher after the 3B experiment failed… and he just kind of snuck out in to the outfield when nobody was looking.
sane I am trying an experiment at work today. I sit across from a lady that constantly yells at her children over the phone all day. I have had gas all day. everytime she calls to yell at her kids I break wind. I am just running and experiment to see what happens
The Twins signed FAs last year, and it didn’t work, ergo, they should never sign a FA again. Do any of you get tired of typing that over and over?
Joe Mauer went to the plate last year and struck out once, should he not have gone to bat the next time?
Same crap different season from the Expect more pay less twins. When a team misses the playoffs a normal thing would be to upgrade and make them better. Bill Smith should be fired. Gardy also should be fired considering he is 6-16 in the post season.
jimmybee,
You should be telling that to your shrink.
FA or trade, the Twins need to make a move to get someone for 3B. Buscher and Harris just won’t cut it, especially now that Nicky is written into the starting line-up with a permanent pen.
Gardy said that if brought back LNP would be the starting SS.
“… think you’d be better off arguging that it wouldn’t matter who the Twins sign, because they’d start to suck afterwards.”
Only if the guys they would sign are average players costing above average salaries. Other than Teixeira and Burrell (both too expensive for the Twins), there really aren’t any sure bets out there for players who would be worth the money.
This means that Casilla will play 2nd and 3rd is either a FA or a platoon of Buscher and Harris
jimmy bee. I now nominate YOU for post of the day. Can’t beat flatulent humor…
My guess is that the Twins may pick up 1 MR. Something tells me that the big signing this offseason was LNP.
Jon, did I miss something? Is the off season over? I’m still hoping Bill Smith will make some more moves.
matt,
So the Twins should only sign sure bets?
Last year Carlos Quentin was a long shot.
Before that, Josh Hamilton was a long shot.
No guts?…no glory!
“werbellik says:
December 16th, 2008 at 2:22 pm
jimmy bee. I now nominate YOU for post of the day. Can’t beat flatulent humor…”
On behalf of myself and this prestigious award I thank all the people out there. T, matt, Brando…. and last but not least Howard
“Last year Carlos Quentin was a long shot.
Before that, Josh Hamilton was a long shot.”
Both of those guys were traded and are still pretty cheap. Correct?
I still think BS will make at least 2 more moves before the season starts. My gut tells me that he will address the 3B/right handed hitter issue first, but might even wait until spring training to adjust his pitching roster. The key to remember is that there is still over 3 months before the season starts.
jimmy bee, if I post my phone number here, will your co-worker call and yell at my kids too?
I wish the Twins had enough “guts” to sign Tex to a 7 year deal.
werbellik,
Do you mean two more moves IN ADDITION to re-signing Reyes and Guardado?
BC of ND,
I think it’s more a matter of lack of $$$’s than guts.
sane,
yes, those two would be “bonus” signings!
Personally, I’m not asking the Twins to sign Texeira, CC Sabathia, or pretty much any front line free agent.
I understand the dollars probably don’t work.
However, there was no financial reason they couldn’t have signed a player like Blake, and there’s no financial reason they couldn’t sign a player like Wigginton.
For that matter, there’s no financial reason Rafael Furcal shouldn’t be the Twins starting SS next season.
The money’s there.
I’m fine if they only address the 3B issue and try to fix the bullpen internally, that is unless they put themselves in a bad position like last year. Last season they couldn’t move players up and down to try them in the bullpen, without losing someone on waivers. They tied their own hands and it killed them when the bullpen fell apart.
“werbellik says:
December 16th, 2008 at 2:30 pm
jimmy bee, if I post my phone number here, will your co-worker call and yell at my kids too?”
Everthing makes her yell. She has airborne bronchitus and coughs constantly and yells at her kids everyday for the past 4 months. I call her the crazy lady over the wall.
Nobody would enjoy a big, early off season splash by the Twins of adding free agents or making significant trades. I am by nature impatient. However, it is not likely to happen with the current ownership and baseball economic condition. Let’s see how things unfold between now and opening day and then we can criticize or compliment the roster as needed.
Wiggy can hit - the big question is durability. 31 and lots of nagging injuries is a concern….
matt,
Traded, cheap, but NOT SURE bets.
My point is that the Twins have to accept past failures and keep firing.
If they are afraid to fail, getting the hell out of the game is not the solution.
Can someone explain this power/Hr fetish everyone seems to have?
It was my understanding that scoring more runs then the opponent is the way games are won. Obviously I am missing something.
Regards,
“For that matter, there’s no financial reason Rafael Furcal shouldn’t be the Twins starting SS next season.
The money’s there.”
I agree 100%
USAFChief.
I agree that not signing Blake (I was not a fan of the third year) or passing on Wiggington is open for criticism if the 3rd base position turns out to be a flop this year. Especially if it’s strictly due to being cheap. The Twins need to step up and show their vision for future budget spending as the new stadium gets closer. This will be even more important if they appear to operating on the cheap in 2009.
“For that matter, there’s no financial reason Rafael Furcal shouldn’t be the Twins starting SS next season.”
No financial reason.
Its a genetic reason.
Gardy’s illegitimate son has been annointed starting SS.
I think most of us, Dragon, are concerned that the Twins’ ability to score runs in 2008 w/o hitting for power as a little flukish, in that it took some pretty amazing hitting with RISP to accomplish. There is justifiable doubt that it can be repeated.
“Can someone explain this power/Hr fetish everyone seems to have?”
cuz chicks dig the longball and we like chicks. I think.
“cuz chicks dig the longball and we like chicks. I think.”
BC, that’s right up there for post of the day, but jimmy bee still wins with flatulent humor!
sane, my point is that why do we keep signing old guys who are not sure things when we could take that money and sign a player who is a sure thing (Lamb, Livan, Everett - about $9 mil we could have used to sign someone like Lowell last year) or we could take a chance (like you are talking about) on a young player like Dallas McPherson. My point is why do the Twins (and should the Twins) keep signing old players who may or may not be past their prime to contracts that are higher than their value.
JimCrikket, I agree, and perhaps we will even score more with some additional power?
JimCrikket,
I guess I understand to a point, yet I think “sane” posted last year that “situational hitting” is something the Twins practice and stress. I believe similar was reported in national media as well.
I also remember being told from early/mid-season that very good hitting with RISP was unsustainable.
It seems like every/most pitcher(s) change their approach with runners on base…is that a stupid theory? IF teams think it important to pitch differently with RSIP, WHY can’t stressing “situational hitting” work similar? Is it because no one else does it, so it can’t/won’t work?
Just curious.
Regards,
matt, I think your criticism of last years “big three” free agent signings is legitimate, but also is 20/20 hind sight. I think we got about what I expected from Livan, but the other two did not even come close to meeting expectations.
The injury situation is concerning - played more than 122 games only once in the past 4 years
matt,
Easy answer.
Trade for 22/23 year olds and if they don’t set ML records in 1st or 2nd years they are BUSTS.
Regards,
I know this is a baseball blog, but Antoine Winfield finally made the Pro Bowl. It’s about time! Congrats to him.
matt,
OK, gotcha.
Their track record with Livan, Monroe, Everett, RonDL, Cirillo, Ponson, Ramon Ortiz, and Reuben Sierra is terrible.
I think the Lamb signing was a good idea with bad results and the Wiggy signing is a good idea with uncertain future results.
I believe that I can see a difference between the first and second sets.
BTW, I advocated the McPherson signing last year prior to the Lamb signing.
STOP THE INSANITY!
ty wigginton? these kind of players aren’t even worth writing about. a modern day ken oberkfell. i’d just as soon have that ty guy from extreme home makeover.
pohlad is either first or second richest owner in baseball…and we’re pursuing ty wigginton.
sweet.
Dragon, I’m not one who worships at the alter of statistics, but neither do I discount them out of hand, either. Those who claimed that the outstanding RISP hitting was unsustainable had evidence to support their position and I tend to agree it’s unlikely to recur this season.
But even if the Twins “approach” turns out to be a legitimate and repeatable factor, having more power as well should just result in even more scoring. That can’t be a bad thing, right?
I like a balanced line up… and right now, I don’t see enough pop in the line up. Maybe Cuddyer and Young will produce more. Maybe Kubel, Morneau and even Mauer will add some HRs as they get older and, hopefully, stronger.
But those maybes don’t stop me from feeling like I’d be more comfortable with someone at 3B who doesn’t have to be recovered from shock any time a ball he hits goes over the fence.
Atlanta Mike what ever happened to Burt Hooten
McPherson is 28 years old, and still can’t make a regular lineup. What does that say about his potential?
Dragon,
Yes, last year I posted that situational hitting is a skill and not a random occurrence.
We practice it every day during our HS season, and we absolutely improve at it.
If your hitters are hitting in a specific direction (left/right and/or up/down) which is appropriate to the game situation, they will be better at situational hitting than if they are just trying to “hit the ball hard”.
If they practice it and believe in it, they will improve at it.
For the record: I’ve seen maybe only one or two people put up what they consider the “ceiling” before Wigginton is no longer a reasonable solution.
I’ve gone on record with 4/36.
I think it was JC (or maybe thrylos) that suggested that 3/30 wouldn’t be unreasonable considering the need for a 3B.
What’s everybody else’s “ceiling” before it’s no longer about being “too cheap” and instead becomes “Wigginton wants too damn much.” ?
McPherson has had a bad back which has hindered his ability to turn potential into MLB performance.
3/24
pohlad is either first or second richest owner in baseball…and we’re pursuing ty wigginton.
I’m actually curious how the other “rich” owners in baseball compare salarywise…
“McPherson is 28 years old, and still can’t make a regular lineup. What does that say about his potential?”
I think the Marlins wanted to hide him last year (while they had Jacobs at 1B and Cantu at 3B0, so that he would be cheap for this upcoming year. I still think 42 HRs in 127 games at AAA last year was an impressive stat.
So the Twins need to decide if adding 7-8 million to the payroll by bringing in Wigg will give them a much better chance with RISP then it would with Harris/Buscher.
Oh: http://www.bleedingblueandteal.com/12-2008/fu-te-ni/
Can we get this guy just for the name?
sane,
isn’t that the same concern some people have about Wiggy? At least we know Wiggy can hit. McPherson has proven nothing so far.
JimCrikket,
Maybe, yes; maybe no.
3 teams in baseball scored more runs than the Twins last year.
Texas scored 80 more runs and hit 83 more hr’s
Chi Cubs scored 34 more runs and hit 73 more hr’s
Boston scored 24 more runs and hit 62 more hr’s
I’m not sure where Wrigley Field stands as hitters/pitchers park, but Texas and Boston are hitters parks, and it’s arguable that with the possible exception of Texas, more hr’s DO NOT equate to more runs.
Add to that, exactly one team hit less Hr’s than the Twins. SO, if Hr’s is the answer, WHY didn’t 26 other teams or even 13 other teams, or 5 other teams score more runs than the Twins?
Regards,
BC,
Wiggy has a better chance of driving in runners who are NOT in scoring position (including himself).
Jon,
I am not advocating McPherson NOW.
Wiggy is a proven MLB hitter and 3B.
McPherson is not close to being either.
T,
Yankees & Red Sox spend alot of money, and I suspect they ALSO turn a profit.
I suspect the main difference is the $150-200 million their Local Broadcasting spin off.
Regards,
But sane in the eyes of the Twins is it a better chance or a much better chance?
BC,
And how many $$$ is the difference between “better” and “much better”?
(in the eyes of the Twins)
Dragon: It’s not just HR’s, it’s SLG percentage.
In 2005, the Twins were 14th in the league in runs, and 14th in the league in SLG.
In 2006, the Twins were 8th in the league in runs, 8th in the league in SLG.
In 2007, the Twins were 12th in the league in runs, 13th in SLG.
In 2008, the Twins were 3rd in the league in runs, 10th in the league in SLG.
Which of those isn’t like the others?
Dragon,
I don’t doubt that Yankees and Red Sox have the insane amounts of income to support it.
That’s why in retrospect I find it funny that Victory One was treated as yet another “greed move” by the Twins vs. an attempt to build more revenue.
I think the ultimate flaw in the VSN attempt was that it came too suddenly comparred to the start of the Twins season. Which meant fans felt strong-armed into either getting the network or not seeing the Twins.
Had the channel been introduced with enough lead time into a major sports season such as the Twins, I think Twins fans would’ve been more receptive.
does anyone remember Bob Horner
USAFChief: Though I’m not going to say it was ALL due to the following…isn’t there some potential that with Gomez/Span/Casilla all in a row that it takes less power from Mauer/Morneau to drive in runs?
Good point sane. So they may pull the trigger on this deal if they think Punto is $4 mil better then Tolbert or Harris.
Chief,
What looks like correlation, is not always correlation.
Not one mention of Twins killer Joe Crede why? Is he not fully recovered from back surgery? Are they staying away from agent Scott Boro’s??
1-Span-RF
2-Casilla-2B
3-Mauer-C
4-Crede-3B
5-Morneau-1B
6-Young-LF
7-Cuddyer/Kubel-DH
8-Tolbert/Punto/Harris-SS
9-Gomez-CF
Dragon, as I’ve said already, the concern is that last season’s hi scoring/high RISP ave is a statistical anomoly that isn’t likely to be repeated. If it IS repeated and you also have a little more RH power, so much the better!
T, I don’t think I’m on record at saying 3/30 is ok. What I believe I’ve said is that there shouldn’t be any reason the Twins can’t afford to meet this guy’s $ demands, even if it means overpaying a bit. What IS possible is that he could demand more years than would be prudent to give. I would go no more than 3 years.
I’ve also said he probably warrants Blake-ish money.If I had to set a ceiling, I’d say I really couldn’t criticize the Twins for not signing him if someone else goes more than $22 million in guaranteed money (could be 3 years guar or 2 years plus whatever a 3rd year option buy-out would cost). I think he’s probably “worth” something like $14-15 million in guaranteed money over 2 years with an option for the 3rd. But the Astros did him a favor non-tendering him so if he gets 2-3 teams bidding, he’ll do better than that.
SD, here is my approximate plan for 3 years, $25million:
1)Sign Wigginton for 3/21.
2)Sign Burrell for 3/30.
3)Trade Cuddyer for prospects. Buscher or Harris don’t make the team out of spring training.
Based on my calculations (after thrylos and Jake took my to the cleaners, I did some number crunching), the Harris/Buscher platoon is worth slightly more than 1 win above replacement. Wigginton, even with his lousy glove, is about 2-2.5 wins above replacement. Net gain for the Twins of about 1 win with that upgrade.
Kubel, as a DH, is about 1 win above replacement. Burrell is between 2.5 and 3 wins above replacement. Net gain, about 1.5-2wins.
All told, our lineup adds between 2.5 and 3 wins with these moves. That’s about $12-$15million in increased value, for an added cost of about $9 to payroll.
If the added cost to payroll is only $9, I’ll cover it!
When you look currently at the Twins lineup, hitters 8-2, you’ve got little offense with Buscher, Punto, Span, Gomez. On top of that, the Twins are thinking of putting Delmon Young on the bench. We absolutley need more offense, Bill Smith needs to get more creative or aggressive this offseason and help this ballclub out.
the more i think about it, signing crede to a 1 year, 5-8 mil deal with incentives might be the best option. it’s not a long contract, not THAT much money (and the twins have extra anyways) and he offers the best upside of any 3B involved. he plays better defense than wiggy, and has potential to post about the same power numbers as him if he stays healthy. and if he doesn’t, you still have harris and buscher (who would start at AAA) to fill the position with a platoon.
I just had a great idea for a website I’m going to call it mlbplayerbluebook.com and all the GM’s have to do is punch in a players biological info as well as their baseball stats and it will spit out the suggested free agent value. Do you guys think it would work?
I’m sure part of the concern on the Twins’ part would be the effect of paying someone like Wigginton money comparable to (or in excess of) what they’re giving M&M. I know that would be a concern to me, if I were calling the shots.
You can justify it to your stars if it’s a one-year deal designed to push you over the top in 2009. But if you give an extraordinary multi-year contract to a guy who doesn’t put up the numbers your stars do, it’s probably not a wise move.
It’s the reason why a GM might consider a reasonable trade for an expensive short-term upgrade, rather than a multi-year commitment to a FA. On that basis, one could understand why the Twins might have been more interested in a trade for Wigginton when the monetary commitment was going to be $6-7mm on a one year arbitration award, but be less interested in a long term signing as a FA.
Steve, I suspect the Twins are thinking something similar with regard to Crede… and I honestly can’t fault their logic if they go that direction.
Dragon, if the Twins are so good at situational hitting and it is something they coach, why were they 25th in runs scored in 2007? One year of stats doesn’t prove very much. In this century, they’ve pretty much been between 13-17th or so in runs scored. They’ve had two years in the top 10. Clearly, there must be some difference (say, how good the players are) from year to year.
Adding better players should (not guaranteed, but should) make the team better.
Steve,
I think Harris is out of options and can’t go to AAA without going through waivers. He was previously optioned in 2003, 2004 and 2005, and a player only gets 3 option (years).
JC,
as long as Caddaver is in the team, I think that the concern of paying M&M money for nothing to someone else is already there.
Let me put it in a different way:
Would you sign Wiggy for Livan-like money (Livan’s contract topped at $7M with incentives)?
if only crede was healthy enough to play SS…then we could sign both 
mike,
What was the Twins ranking in hitting with RISP in 2007?
They couldn’t hit (or score) under any circumstances that year.
sane
and of course we can correlate that to Punto having such a terrible year in 07 (highly uncharacteristic) and then in 08 he had a tremendous .284 average thus the team scored more runs
About his ’situational hitting’ bit:
Situational hitting is not only high average with RISP. It is things like putting down a bunt, hitting the ball in the 1B side of the diamond with a runner on 1st, not grounded into double plays, etc…
As a matter of fact the Twins grounded into more double plays than the Mariners last season (142 vs 137)
BC,
You’ve already determined that it’s a great idea. Go for it. Why do you want our opinion?
OK, using these same numbers of calculating wins above replacement, Nick Punto nets out between 1.5 and 2 wins above replacement as our starting SS. That’s worth between $7.5million and $10million. The Twins are actually getting a deal with him at SS.
Take that, LNP haters!
“As a matter of fact the Twins grounded into more double plays than the Mariners last season (142 vs 137)”
Probably because the Twins had 200 more PA with men on than the Mariners had.
Here’s an interesting article showing Seattle 2008 in Values:
http://ussmariner.com/2008/02/14/2008-win-values
I found it linked from “The Book”/Tom Tango’s blog.
“Win Values”, not “in Values.”
T: I agree that the Twins speed on the bases adds a little to their ability to score runs, whether that be stealing bases, going 1st to 3rd, or scoring on hits that would not have scored slower runners. I still think the lack of power will eventually catch up to them in the runs scored department. Adding more power to the existing speed is a good idea no matter how much you think the speed contributes to run scoring, no?
Sane: I think you meant to say
‘what looks like correlation isn’t necessarily causation,’ no?
I agree in general, but if you look at the history of baseball, it’s pretty hard not to come to the conclusion that OBP and SLG are the causation of runs. Too much correlation over time.
T: Fair question (”what’s your ceiling for TW?)
Here’s what I do:
1. Make one last offer to Seattle (one of Perkins/Blackburn plus one minor leaguer of their choice) for Beltre, and make it clear I won’t be coming back. If they say ‘no,’, I
2. Offer Wigginton 1 year/$7.5M, or 2 years/$14M, or 3 years/$18M, his choice. I’d be willing to negotiate slightly, but not much–something like add a 4th year, team option, with a $1M buyout–from those parameters. That’s similar to what Blake got, and TW represents a lesser, but younger, player, so he shouldn’t get too much more than that.
If Wigginton ends up signing for much more than that, I won’t blame the Twins for passing. If he gets similar, or less dollars, I think we fans have a legit beef.
mike wants wins,
Let’s see IF several things the FO is doing can tie together and possibly provide an answer.
1.) The Twins 2 best hitters are Mauer & Morneau. Mauer hits a low number of Hr’s BUT puts the ball in play, often with authority. Morneau hits more Hr’s and puts the ball in play with authority.
2.) Much to the angst of many on these blogs, the Twins are drafting speed and hitters (as opposed to bangers).
How does one make the best combine these 2 characteristics? I think “T” pointed this out. IF you have 3/4 guys 8-2 who are speed, get on base guys, it is highly likely Mauer & Morneau will come up with someone on base, where now a Hr can be nice, yet putting the ball in play with authority will also get you a run or runs. Hopefully Young grows into this profile, maybe Cuddy can get closer to his 2006 form, or his healthy form of last year.
IF Wiggy fit’s this profile I am all for him. Don’t know enough to comment specifically.
We’ll see how it turns out. If, like 2007, no one is having a very good year it doesn’t work. That probably applies to Hr hitters as well.
Regards,
cool little article, that only proves no one is sure so far:
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2008/9/16/615204/of-twins-and-risp
TW represents a lesser, but younger, player[than Blake]
Blake career:
.264/.334/.447 105 OPS+, .180 isoP, 25.8 AB/HR, .823 OPS against LHP
Wiggy career:
.270/.330/.460 105 OPS+, .190 isoP, 24.7 AB/HR, .878 OPS against LHP
I would say slightly better than Blake, not lesser.
Agreed, the Twins should start with what Blake was offered and take it from there…
the Twins are drafting speed and hitters (as opposed to bangers).
this is actually a misconception. The Twins are drafting (and singing from the Latin American countries) bangers as well. The problem is that (perhaps due to organizational philosophy that encourages hitting to the opposite field vs banging) the bangers rarely make it…
Well, the Twins themselves said this summer they have almost no impact hitters in tehir system, and need to fix that. So, I’m thinking they agree things need to change.
mike wants wins,
if they agreed that things would have to change, would they have given extensions to their hitting coaching staff from the DSL to the majors?
mike wants wins,
Very interesting article.
5 straight years hitting better with RISP than BA. Since the stats were for 9 years it was stastically insignificant. It will be interesting what the rationale will be IF they do similar for the 6th year.
Regards,
Not going to happen. The Twins as always will make no moves to help the team.
They keep smellin those runs *touch finger to nose*
Thry - thoughts on the vs lefty stats I had (above) ?
1) Crede the best option
2) A flyer guy like Joel Guzman is a good idea (put in AAA and see what happens- he has serious pop, but has K issues. he’s trapped behind zimmerman in washington (was behind longoria in TB) should be had cheap (Twins LIIIIKE cheap)
3) suck up a yr of harris/”butcher”, at least the obp is adequate….
But, as he also pointed out, they hit worse the 4 years before that, meaning it is likely still statistical noise. Also, hitting better than your normal BA is nice, but not too helpful if your normal BA is low. That’s one of the silly knocks on ARod - that he some years hits worse in clutch situations, but his worse is still better than almost everyone else in baseball.
Mike wants wins,
One other thought, while last year was better than the previous 4 years, it is interesting that the previous 4 years were almost identical…9-12% higher RISP than BA each year. Somewhat odd isn’t that statistical noise can be somewhat identical year over year?
Regards,
Also, the “better” was pretty small most years, but yeah, interesting reading.
Thry: Given health and defense, I’d say Blake is the slightly better player, but that’s just me.
Nope, not really. Statistical noise happens. It’s random, just like sometimes when you flip a coin it ends up heads 6 times in a row. At least, that was the theory that the author proposed. He admitted he’d need many more years of data to confirm.
It is certainly possible, as he points out, that it is more than noise, but so far there is not evidence it is anything but noise. Stats are a hard, hard subject.
med,
i meant to say right hand batter.
Yes Mauer is a freak of nature, but his numbers last year (career he hits RHP vs LHP) are very explainable:
He is a great fastball hitter (.346 against RHP and .386 against LHP) and kills lefty sliders (.282 vs RHP and .341 against LHP). This year he saw a ton of sliders. Fastballs and (mainly) sliders from lefties tend to be outside on a left handed batter. Mauer is an opposite field hitter. A slider in the zone outside from a lefty to Mauer hits his sweet spot. Pitchers need to adjust to him (and it is no secret that Mauer hit .140 against changeups last season)
Go out and Sign Manny Ramirez. RH power hitting monster! Pay him the money! Twins World Champs in ‘09!
mike wants wins,
The question is are the Twins both teaching “situational hitting” and low strikeouts, and acquiring/promoting players which fit that profile.
It is statistical noise because there is 9 years of data. Would be interesting to know what the explanation would be if there was only 7 years of data.
Regards,
i think you guys put way too much emphasis on numbers in this forum…
It is statistical noise because there is 9 years of data.
The reason the statistical significance is low (I would not call it ‘noise’ is because there are only 9 data points. It is fairly easy to expand those points to increase the significance (but it makes it harder to compute) : Look at the individual player RISP data vs the team data. For 9 years you got at least 135 data points at least (or if you, and probably want to, make a cut off based on number of PAs to look only at the regulars) then you have 90-100 data points, which is pretty significant. This is a kind of a cool exercise because you can do it blindly (ie put no names on players) and non-blindly to answer interesting questions (for example, did the Twins get better with RISP once AJ left)
But, as I said, it takes time (and some knowhow)
Dragon: Regardless whether someone thinks the ’situational hitting’ is a skill, and repeatable, wouldn’t it be fair to say it’s only “worked” once in the recent past?
When was the last time, outside 2008, the Twins were in the top 5 in runs scored?
And if, indeed, the situational hitting is a skill, and repeatable, wouldn’t adding OBP and/or SLG to the lineup STILL result in a better offense in 2009?
I don’t have a problem with them signing Wiggington, but I still hope that they sign a real SS.
anyone who has ever played baseball in their life understands ’situational hitting’ is a skill. it also goes with the philosophy of the team. “team players” settle for a base hit as long as it gets the run in… players more interested in their own numbers are more concerned in their SLUG or what not instead of simply driving in the run. this is a major reason why it is hugely important that the twins bring in players that fit this mold of “winning baseball” (ala nick punto, michael cuddyer) instead of guys who simply have good numbers.
I think Mighty Casey subscribes to the Charlie Brown theory of General Management… “Tell your statistics to shut up.”
I look at the numbers discussion as a relatively interesting way to pass the time, especially in the offseason, as we discuss possible ways to improve the team. I don’t believe they are the holy grail of predicting baseball success, but only a fool ignores them completely.
The problem is that in baseball, as in most aspects of life and business, anyone can “prove” whatever point they wish to make simply by being selective as to which stats they choose to quote.
Wigginton, Beltre, Atkins, Kouzmanoff, DeRosa come on just solidify 3B so I can stop checking these sites obsessively. Once we get some right handed pop on the F ing hot corner I’ll be comfortable that we will win the division.
Everyone thinks we got too many OF and too much young pitching. These are just illusions. First you can never have too much good young pitching. Second, what are the chances that Kubel or Cuddyer will be healthy all year? It would be a miracle if they both were healthy for a whole season. Span and Gomez both play extremely reckless and could easily spend time on the DL too. We sit with only one need to fill in the line up and thats right handed pop between Morneau and Kubel. So sign Wigs now!!!
3 years 25 mil ought to do it!!
Baseball statistics are like a girl in a bikini. They show a lot, but not everything. ~Toby Harrah
Mighty Casey you just made me throw up. How dare you say something about Punto being a great situational hitter…
The idiot can’t bunt, he dives into 1st base, and he had what 20 freaking RBI last season?
Give me a break man. You can cheer Punto as a hero to you, but don’t try to use stats to back your love because the little twirp doesn’t have any stats that do a damn thing to convince me he is anything more than the most overpaid 25th man in Major League Baseball.
Bill Smith must be on vacation.
Toby Harrah was right. That was a great quote Casey.
players more interested in their own numbers are more concerned in their SLUG or what not instead of simply driving in the run
I would respectfully beg to differ: Players who are interested in their own “stats” would so love to drive in that run, because RBIs is what produces post-season awards, fat contracts and HOF consideration, not SLG.
The calculation of statistical measuments (both simple rate like SLG, OBP, etc. and complex like WPA and VORP) always happen after the fact and reflect what happened in the park.
Ask yourself, what is an easier thing for a selfish hitter to determine while at bat: the number of home runs or RBIs he will have once he hits one out, or what his SLG% would be once he hits one out?
BC-
my point was not that Nick Punto is a sensational hitter with RISP, but that guys like him and Michael Cuddyer (i use them as examples simply because they are overwhelmingly despised on this website) do what it takes to win, not for their own statistics or whatever alternative motives. what statistics did i throw as you to back up “my love for the little twirp?” i think you need to check yourself and try again.
DLF
Bill Smith is in the bathroom looking at his reflection in the toilet wishing in one hand, and wishing he hadn’t @#%^ in the other and decided on Little Nicky Punterrible instead of waiting for Furcal to sign with the Braves so we could trade Blackburn/Perkins for Escobar.
Hopefully next time he flushes his head is in the bowl!
So, Mighty Casey, what exactly did Cuddyer do for this team to win last year?
thyrlos-
we could debate ALL DAY about the motives of professional baseball players, but i honestly believe that good teams have good players who genuinely care (to some extent) about their teammates, their fans, the community, etc. etc.
I had my doubts about wiggy as a minute maid product however…
http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/individual_player_hitting_chart.jsp?c_id=mlb&playerID=421064&statType=1
Check home run. He hit a few wallscrapers to the short field (4), but also displayed power to right field. No homers to straight away 435, but with power to all fields, I imagine he would hit more to center and the alleys in the dome, and slightly fewer down the lines. I would guess his homer numbers might drop slightly against the better AL pitching, but not significantly. He did pepper the left field wall for doubles, some of which would have probably been outs in the dome, but his power numbers tend to show he is not a dead pull hitter.
Mighty Casey… you mentioned Situational hitting and Nick Punto without the line…
Nick Punto is a terrible situational hitter
Had you said that I think I would have been fine.
However, his failed bunts, the fact that a fast guy hits too many lazy fly balls to the opposite field, and strikes out looking a bit too often… occasionally slides into 1st base, and hot dogs plays that should be routine for people who are “great” defensive players…
Nick Punto could win the batting title next year and I would still stand behind the fact that 2 years 8.5 million should be enough for Bill Smith to be dragged down I35 to Iowa and barred from ever being allowed in this state again.
Situational hitting also involves “getting them over” which is not rewarded with an individual metric.
High RBI totals generally go to power hitters, not skilled situational hitters.
A skilled situational hitter will often drive in a single run with an out.
A power hitter will drive in three runs with one blast, then pop-up and leave three runners on the next time.
The Twins lack power hitters ($$$$), so they emphasize situational hitting by necessity.
we could debate ALL DAY about the motives of professional baseball players, but i honestly believe that good teams have good players who genuinely care (to some extent) about their teammates, their fans, the community, etc. etc
I would agree with that, but also add:
Most importantly produce in the park.
If you can have the good citizen and good player combination great. If you can’t you should go for the good player…
BC,
How is sliding into 1B and “hot-dogging” in the field related to situational hitting?
I think your blind hatred is affecting your concentration and ability to focus on the subject.
In case you haven’t heard it (and probably not because it was not widely publicized), Punto will miss a good deal of spring training next year because he was selected in Italy’s WBC team. For what it’s worth…
USAF Chief,
I had a brilliant post/reply which went into the ether. I will try again.
I am generally VERY SKEPTICAL of any application of statistical analysis to human activity or behavior. There are too many variables.
Statistics may give a limited picture of what has happened, but are basically worthless in predicting the NEXT event.
The NEXT event is important to me since I invest daily in sports and horses. I find that personal observation is just as valuable as any statistical analysis as a predictor of human behavior in the NEXT event.
I use statistics alot, yet I look for a reasonable explanation of the statistic. I AM NOT saying my explaination has any more validity than any other.
I do find it interesting that from 2004-2007 the variant of RSIP above BA for the Twins was 11%, 12%, 9% and 12%. This, where the BA was as low as .256 and as high as .278 (from memory), seems fairly consistant as opposed to be random. My belief does not make it so.
Regards,
.140 against changeups? wowzers, so he is human!
interesting article
http://www.leftymalo.com/2008/12/get_wiggy_with_it.php
seems the Giants are interested, but this guy is not all that impressed.
thrylos,
unfortunately cuddyer was bothered by injuries all year and, for the most part, added very little offensive production to the lineup. i also believe that he playing at less than 100% all year, but that’s just me. at the time, denard span was not a highly thought-of alternative.
i thought it was very cool that cuddyer made the “162+” t-shirts in spring training, showing that the players had high expectations for the season, even though NOBODY else did. cheesy? maybe. personally i think stuff like that matters, but i realize those things don’t fit into your stat calculators that call cuddyer a worthless “cadavor” or whatever. i thought it was pretty sweet, after all the stupid injuries he had, that he had one of the biggest hits of the season in the biggest game of the season, the “162+” game in chicago. unfortunately for the twins, brendan harris’ (if memory serves??) fly-ball was about 5 ft too short for it to matter.
Dragon,
there is a whole field out there called outcome analysis, that uses statistics in a predictive fashion. Not sure whether or not it can work in Vegas or in the Horsies, but saved a whole bunch of lives delivering the right treatment for the right situation based on medical knowledge gathered in similar situations. Outcome analysis begun to pop its head on Baseball a few years ago in SABR, thus things like Marcel projections and PECOTA (and its not working as well as in Medicine because a lot of the variables -like crappy managers or third base coaches or popped elbows- in baseball are not that well defined… no need to ditch it, though
BC,
Watch a Twins game sometime.
By that, observe ALL that is happening, particularly the emotion, psychology or sociology. None of those adequately capture my thought.
Last year there were precisely 2 Twins players that had the ability (for good and ill) to energize the team through their effort, not necessarily their precise result. Those two were Gomez and Punto. It was particularly noticable in somewhat listless games.
Any particular pitch is but a small part of what is happening.
Regards,
Penn State just gave a three-year-contract to Joe Paterno.
And he is 100 years older than Casey Blake, who was too old for a Twins three-year contract offer.
Sid…
They are not a part of Situational hitting… they are just more character flaws in Punterrible that make watching him play a lot like getting a colonoscopy.
thrylos,
My argument isn’t with statistics. It is with the analysis and argumentation.
Statistics may provide guidance, NOT proof.
I look daily for situations where if the predictive applicability is @ 50% confirmed by personal observation and other non stastical factors. Then the hard part is trying to find a way to make a profit. In some situations I need 60-65% reliability, in some as low as a 25-30% reliability can be profitable. Yet the MOST profitable situations come from watching games, particularly mediocre teams starting to playing consistantly better and still losing.
Regards,
Mighty Casey,
yes Cuddyer was bothered by injuries last season (so was Delmon Young by the way; but he had to be handcuffed by the training stuff out of the lineup instead of hauling his rear end to the DL) but look at this:
Value Over Replacement Player (0 = any warm AAA body):
Young 14.4
Ruiz 0.8
Cuddyer -0.1
So, in September, for most of the month, and in the most important game of the season the manager of the Millennium took the bat away from a guy who was a contributor and gave it to someone whose value was less than that of a warm body. We all know the results and the manager of the millennium got a 2-year extension for it.
Nice T-shirts, but go and look at Cuddaver’s comments after game 163 to see how bothered he really was for the loss…
Dragon,
I listened to over 140 games last year. I’ve been a Twins fan since 1975 when I was able to watch the games with my grandfather on channel 9 I believe.
I’ve also watched hundreds and hundred and hundreds of games on ESPN, Fox, TBS, WGN, WOR, MSC, ABC, and NBC over the years and Nick Punto is among the bottom 5% of all the players I’ve ever seen play the game.
He is Al Newman, the 1980 Twins, Jamie Quirk, Ivan DeJesus kind of terrible. He is Rob Deer without power kind of terrible, and when your career OB% is .301, you’re bunting into DP’s, and as a slap hitter hitting too many fly balls… you are not a good situational hitter.
I know that you are supposed to get the runner over, you are supposed to be allowing the guy ahead of you to steal 2nd, doing some hit and running, run and hitting, and the occasional Sac Fly in there, but his numbers over his career don’t prove what you are saying.
Punto energizes the crowd? Not at any game I’ve been to. In 2007 he was more of a disgrace to baseball than Old Chubby Boof. In 2008 he hit .285 on a team that scored in the top 5 in the game, and he had 20 some RBI…
Punto (my blinde hatered aside) is a 25th man on the Royals not a starter in this league.
TJack - NFC offensive player of the week. Think Chilly pulls a Gardy and plays his favorite 37 yo QB or plays the hot hand?
Thry - Ruiz was a solid bat and I will miss him. But that’s all he was - a bat. And his power didnt seem to translate to the big leagues when he got here. I hope he catches on with another team though
what did cuddy say after that game anyway?
Dragon,
I don’t get that betting thing ( ) but I agree that statistics provide no ‘proof’. They can make a probabilistic prediction at best (and some of these predictions are extremely accurate in certain defined situation -ballgames are not them) and they are great at explaining events that have already happened but that’s about it. No proofs.
(now if you really want to learn how to get $ from horsies -or to predict baseball season outcomes based on rosters- you got to get into game theory -not Wii- math; but lemme tell ya, gets really hairy )
Cuddyer is also a middle of the order hitter, and if he’s a “situational hitter…” at 8 million dollars Bill Smith and Terry Ryan should be locked in a closet and forgotten about forever and ever amen.
BC,
you do realize that you lose all credibility when you make over the top comparisons and exaggerated statements and only talk Punto, when no-one else was.
thrylos-
i like the “manager of the millenium” nickname, but i think “manager of the decade” is more accurate, for now anyways.
i’ll take my cuddyer to your ruiz anyday. that is a joke.
in respect to delmon young v. michael cuddyer in regards to injuries… you cannot compare injuries. they were different injuries with different limitations. i highly doubt pain threshold was a factor for either of them, as both of them would seemingly sacrifice their body for the sake of the team.
I didn’t bring up Punto.
Someone said that he was a good situational hitter.
Nick Punto isn’t good at anything baseball related.
…there isn’t a player on the Twins who isn’t a situational hitter (or at least trying to be)
BC,
I thought I was presice in my comment. Obviously not.
I know you follow the team religiously/faithfully.
My comment was more to watch what is going on in a holistic sense NOT the precise pitch.
From my observations, the Twins DO NOT have a lot of demonstrable/spontaneous players. Gomez and Punto are the exceptions. Span, Casilla, Mauer, Kubel and Young are fairly stoic. Morneau vacilates and from time to time can join Gomez and Gomez, but not that often.
I would guess there were 20+ times where the Twins weren’t doing much and then either Gomez or Punto would do something good or bad, and with great effort which seemed to ignite the rest of the team to action.
Regards,
i brought up punto as a guy who is trying to win baseball games, even if that means giving up your at-bat for the sake of the team. i did not, however, say punto was a particularly good situational hitter.
LOL @ BC
I swear, Punto must have done something to your woman in a past life or something; or maybe you just don’t like italian baseball players, who knows. Yes he’s not that good; yes, he pisses me off too; but his glove is one of the better ones and he does get on base (thus scores runs). There are some terrible SS’s in this game (ie jack wilson? worse than Punto but makes 2x as much). If it were me, Tolbert would be at 2nd, and Casilla at SS. But alas, Gardy had a temper tantrum with BS and got his little buddy resigned. We just have to live with Punto and hope he doesn’t revert back to 2007 (I would love it if he remembered how he did it in 2006).
Casey…
I will agree with you. I will take Cuddyer over Ruiz as well.
If this team was going to take a chance on someone related to steroids they should have went after Bonds and not Rincon or Ruiz.
dragon,
great post. energy is huge for a baseball team, positive or negative.
there’s a thought
Rincon - what a disappointment he was. electric stuff, then he gets caught for steroids. At first, I wanted to believe the guy, but then afterwards his production plummets, he has injury problems and presto - you are the worst reliever on the Indians! Hurray!
what a waste. Steroids suck people, remember that
Sign Bonds for the MLB minimum.
Trade Kubel, Perkins and Guerrier for a good SP.
Sign Wiggy.
Play ball!
Mighty Casey,
I submit ALL team sports are as much about human interaction and dynamics as they are about talent and skill.
While a more talented group should and often wins more, a TEAM of lesser talented individuals will often do very well, particularly in the current environment of the huge $$$$ many players receive.
Those who obviously enjoy the game are worth more IMHO, than those doing a JOB.
Regards,
Actually, the major ignition of the team is Gardy. Him kicking dirt at an Ump always gets the team fired up.
He should teach motivational classes to Childress - he could grow more of a personality than his dry humor that he pretends to have.
BREAKING…
Wiggy close to signing a 3 year deal with the Indians according to ESPN Insider…
Medschoolmatt…
No… the real hatred with Punto is Gardenhire’s mysterious love affair with the man. I can’t really badmouth Gardy because he wins, and in the end that’s what matters most to me. I just care about the winning, but Punto disgusts me as a baseball player. I don’t cheer for the guy who over-achieves because he doesn’t have the talent of the other ball players. I want to see this game played at it’s very best level, and there are at least 25-35 SS’s I’d rather see on this team than Punto. If he was a bench player I’d still not be happy. I don’t want him here at all. His glove is overrated, and he DOES NOT GET ON BASE! He has a career .301 OB% he has a career .254 BA, and a career .332 slg% He makes Joe Mauer look like Babe Ruth with a SLG% like that.
I am still pissed that he got 500 plate appearances in 2007. He does not play “fundemental ball” either. He’s a mediocre bunter at best. A slap hitter should slap hits not fly out to the outfield as often as he did. He hit .285 last year and did absolutely nothing with it. How many runs did he score? He didn’t drive in jack! He’s a lousy base runner.
There is nothing about this ball player that is MLB calibur except maybe his versitility… and that is not being exploited by proclaiming him a starter, or paying him 8.5 million.
If he’s worth 8.5 over 2 years there is no way that anyone in America has the right to bitch and complain about any other ball player in this game getting paid any salary at all. If Texiera gets 35 million a year for 15 years it’s worthy compared to 8.5 for Punto. He is a handicap to this team… we get 8 innings worth of hitting instead of 9 because he’s 3 easy outs a game.
When Gardy gets tossed, the Twins usually lose.
Not that fired up.
Wiggy 3 years at $6.7 per year…. for the Tribe…
Jeff…
Doesn’t make sense that the Indians would go after Wiggington this hard, but this puts them way ahead of the Twins this offseason…
Thank God that they are the Indians and will find a way to lose 90 games one way or another.
bc-
No… the real hatred with Punto is Gardenhire’s mysterious love affair with the man. I can’t really badmouth Gardy because he wins, and in the end that’s what matters most to me. I just care about the winning, but Punto disgusts me as a baseball player.
so… punto plays cause gardy tells him to… and gardy wins… and in the end that’s what matters most to you… hmmmmmmmm…
I can’t really badmouth Gardy because he wins
what exactly? The only ring in his finger is as a 3rd base coach…
And Jeff’s source is?
Mighty Casey,
That seemed a non sequitor to me as well
Regards,
Can’t the Twins just once get a decent player so we don’t have to go down to the last game of the year?
Mike,
I wouldn’t mind if it really went down to the last game of the year (game 7 of the WS) but this was not even close
What I find funny is that ESPN, MLB.com, MLBTraderumors.com, and Cleveland’s own page say nothing about Wigginton.
But somebody trolling by posting false signings wouldn’t be a first.
cant we beat the indians on this deal for gods sakes…..come on bill smith, youre really pissin me off and a whole lot of others i am bettin
jeff - did he sign on the dotted line yet?
thrylos-
was ernie banks a bad baseball player because he didn’t win a ring?
fortunately i believe gardy will get one so it won’t be a factor….
well apparently you have to be an ‘insider’ to get this information on espn.
Looking back at the Twins in 87 & 91 it was fun watching 4-5 players hitting homeruns… now, it’s a bunt here, steal there, single here… Man that’s boring…
but this was not even close
I can imagine there are several teams….(well about 21 to be specific) that would love to at least make it to a 163rd game.
lets hope this some jerkoff having some fun at our expense
The Indians already have a third baseman… Jhonny (I hope I spelled that correctly) Peralta… next?
(where is that bostonfreak, btw?)
Thrylos
He wins divisions with a team that has to beat all the other major league teams and his own club’s owners and front office people.
A world series title for Gardy with Bill Smith and the Pohlads would make him Casey Stengel or Sparkey Anderson kind of Great.
I’m not a fan of the man per say, but if he won WS title with this team I would almost expect him to be considered a hall of fame manager. It’s impossible to beat your management… when you aren’t given the horses to race, and you still somehow win… that’s impressive.
Hell, the man has to overcome his own self sometimes (Punto… and all those games bringing in Rincon)
mj1, it usually is. Especially when they don’t post any sources.
BC: If you talk to the right people, Gardy is winning not only despite the FO and owner’s best attempts to do otherwise…but also the best attempts by his players, and himself.
Get some good bats in their prime. We have the new stadium coming, now it’s time for the Polhads to start showing the money.
T
You took the words out of my mouth.
It would not be a first… and I was just digging for anything I could find and I didn’t see anything
Hell, the man has to overcome his own self sometimes (Punto… and all those games bringing in Rincon)
now…
Answer me Truly: if Gardy did not:
a. use Rincon (and Bassie and Guerrier after his arm was dead) in critical situations after proven failures
b. did not have a urinating contest with Liriano’s agent in July while Livan was stinking the place up
c. did not use his other buddy, Cuddaver, over Kubel and Ruiz in September
(for starters)
would this team have won one more stinking game?
that’s all it would have taken…
I hope he enjoys his extension.
I love how trolls think this is the type of blog (with all our stat analysis and number crunching) that can be fooled.
go to the vikings blog, there are plenty of people that can be had
thrylos,
You forgot…Gardy also started Liriano against KC in the last series…what a disaster that was…
Regards,
By Peter Gammons
ESPN.com
Wednesday, December 16, 2008
The Indians moved today to prevent Ty Wigginton from going to a division foe. The Tribe offered a Wigginton a 3 year deal worth $6.7m per year. The Indian will have to make a roster move to free up the money.
Hey thrylos: If Morneau gets a basehit in at least one of three ABs he had against KC that last Saturday of the season…Twins go to the playoffs.
That idiot Gardy should’ve known better than to put that loser in the lineup.
Dragon
who else would you have gone with in that situation?
dragon-
lol. love it
Nice try Jeff…but I’m guessing ESPN’s proofreaders would’ve caught that today’s Tuesday.
Or else they can see into the future…in which case Wednesday is the 17th.
I love Gardy, Punto, Cuddy, statistical anlysis, players with good attitudes, and reading “my” Twins blog at startribune.com! Merry Christmas!
Obvious troll is obvious
But medcschool…it’s so CUTE.
werbellik
‘…I LOVE burritos at 6 am, parties that never end…and TWINS!’
medschoolmatt
Actually, I would have offered myself. I could use the raise, and the same outcome would have occured
Seriously, it is easy to pick nits. I can find 10-20 games the Twins should have won, I can also find 10-20 games the Twins should have lost. I could find 10+ games each significant player (judged by games played) were the cause or a significant cause in a loss. I could find similar in wins.
Some say hindsight is 20/20. I say hindsight is looking from your posterior.
Regards,
T
quite adorable actually. does anyone think that 3 years at 6.7 per would actually sign him?
also, props to whoever knows what I quoted
Jeff,
that would have been more believable if:
a. Gammons was still beat reporting on ESPN
b. The spelling was correct
Good luck with Wood next year. Hope his arm holds…
Dragon
I am sure you have a pretty good screwball.
2 years at the league minimum with incentives sound good?
Although I’m pro-Wiggy at this point, I wonder if this is still gonna boil down to a trade with the Rockies for Atkins. I’d rather sign Wiggy and not give up anything but the money. I think it’s time for BS to get aggressive. Just think how happy we here at the blog would be. I’m sure BS would like to please us all!
medschoolmatt, you’re driving me nuts because I can’t come up with the answer to what you quoted.
hint: its a commercial
“medschoolmatt says:
December 16th, 2008 at 7:12 pm
Dragon
I am sure you have a pretty good screwball.
2 years at the league minimum with incentives sound good?”
MS Matt
1.) I AM a screwball.
2.) My best position is “Left end guard”…Left end of the bench, guarding the water cooler.
Regards,
coors lite?
you betcha
http://www.tvacres.com/sex_babes_coors.htm
kinda hard to forget them eh
an aside
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/lottery2009/mockdraft?lpos=spotlight&lid=tab3pos1
lets hope he’s who we get…and lets hope he’s not traded…
Actually… I do think 3 years at $19mm would probably get Wigginton.
“The Indian will have to make a roster move to free up the money.”
Jeff is just too stupid to pull this off. Only in a salary cap league (NBA) does a team have to “make a roster move to free up money”.
And who is “The Indian”?
Tonto?
duh… guess 6.67 x 3 is 20mm… Be thankful I don’t do your taxes.
I found out that the Royals signed Joe Bale, but I could not find anything anywhere on Wiggington other than the same old generic caption with a quote from LaVelle attached.
John Bale. my mistake.
BC
looks like a decent pick up for them. was their bullpen that abysmal last year though? I am guessing they should go after someone better like Burrel or something…(seeing as how we’ll never sign him)
medschoolmatt,
never say never
and Burrell was drafted as a third baseman by the Phillies…
(just a joke, people )
Medschoolmatt.
They are the Royals… Where you start and where you end usually ends up being last place in the Central.
I think improving the bullpen is a great idea for them. Those few times that the starters do have leads you don’t want them blown… it destroys a player’s confidence, and if being a Royal isn’t hard enough before a blown lead… imagine leaving the game after 7 innings and getting a no decision, and having to go into arbitration saying I lead the Royals in No Decisions I deserve more money.
Thry
well 3B is just a hop skip and a jump to left field isn’t it? I hope they at least look at him though…
BC
“I think improving the bullpen is a great idea for them. Those few times that the starters do have leads you don’t want them blown… it destroys a player’s confidence, and if being a Royal isn’t hard enough before a blown lead… imagine leaving the game after 7 innings and getting a no decision, and having to go into arbitration saying I lead the Royals in No Decisions I deserve more money.”
Replace the ‘royals’ stuff with Twins, and you have Blackburn’s season.
Well heck, if we’re going that route Thrylos, the Yankees have expressed interest in trading Xavier Nady and he’s played 18 error-free innings of 3rd base in his Major League career!
Sounds like an improvement over Buscher already!
Medschool Matt:
Left field in the Dome is big. Right handers have a lower batting average/power numbers in he Dome than in other stadiums.
The Dome is good for left handed hitters; they have a higher average/power in the Dome than in other stadiums.
Don’t sign Wig; I was for it before I was against it, but, hey, I’m allowed to change my mind. Buscher/Harris ain’t that bad and the cost per HR/RBI comparing Beltre/Atkins/Wiggington isn’t worth the additional dough.
I’ve finally made up my mind, bring up Valencia/Revere and others. Much more entertaining and satisfying to watch the home grown talent.
Eat what you grow; so, bring’em up!
Anyone questioning Wigginton’s ability to hit home runs should do several things:
1. Remember that he hit 23 HR in Tampa too. Granted, it’s short down the line, but it juts out and is then more comparable to the Dome.
2. Remember that while it’s easy to hit a HR to left in Minute Maid Park, it’s damn near impossible to center, at over 440 feet compared to 408 in the Dome. Some of the long outs Wiggy hit to CF in Houston would be HRs in Minnesota.
3. Just go look at some of his videos on the Astros’ website. I was curious last night because he’s had power success in other stadiums… just go to the month of August when he hit (an insane) 12 home runs. He’s got legitimate power. There’s a couple line shots that wouldn’t be out in the Dome, but there are some mammoth shots that are out in any stadium in MLB. There’s also about a 430-foot triple to center. I bet he wishes he’d been on the road for when he hit that one…
Wigginton isn’t an elite option, but he’s also not a product of Minute Maid Park.
Unlike Garrett Atkins (well, as far as we know - he’s never played with another team), Wigginton just seems to have developed into a player who’s better at home, wherever home is for him that year.
I think he’s definitely worth the opportunity. All we have to lose is money, and while I realize that’s a terrifying concept to a lot of Minnesota fans, we’ve got a new stadium coming and it’s hardly a Barry Zito, Carl Pavano, Kei Igawa situation.
Wigginton would draw between $18-21MM probably, and he’s a more established hitter than a lot of the junk we’ve gone with in recent years.
I still think he’s the best option we have going forward.
joe
well, wiggy’s career average in domes is .353..
Steve
losing money is not terrifying to the fans, its terrifying to the FO and Pohlad
Touche, Matt.
I’m just saying in light of recent signings such as Lamb, Livan, Monroe, etc. the fans seem to have a bad taste in their mouth when faced with the concept of signing a bust and losing money.
I don’t think Wigginton would be a bust.
True, but not doing anything would piss the twins fans off even more.
You guys are all making me more and more of a believer in Wiggington.
Maybe we should have traded Garza for him in 2007 like the D.Rays wanted?
Ok, I couldn’t stop the cheap shot, but you guys are doing a good job of making me think Wiggington would be great for this team.
That only means that the Twins will let us all down… darn it. I was hoping not to get sucked into this let down.
The only thing worse than nothing at all Medschoolmatt is Punto.
Medschoolmatt.
In baseball the numbers that they say are lost are part of the press books, and not part of the true accounting books.
When a team signs a player to a contract they get to depreciate the player just as if I were to buy a new computer, or a new car for my business.
They also get to write off the plane tickets, the per-deium, hotels, and all of their marketing efforts. I know that it’s still possible to lose money in the game, but it’s not nearly as bad as the owners make it out to be.
Except for maybe the Timberwolves. I could see that team losing 20 million a season. I mean watching them I feel like they owe me 100 dollars for each game I force myself to watch.
MSMatt: .353 in how many ABs? How many HRs?
Steve from Fridley:
In a park with a 440 CF, pitchers will throw a pitch that they know might be crushed straight away, so the videos don’t mean much.
I would have preferred Blake over Wig. I think that the Twins should forget about an upgrade at 3rd and try to get J.J. Hardy.
BC
I was sarcastic but very good point
Wigginton is an overpaid utility player.
I don’t believe the Twins are that dumb.
Unless he comes really cheap, no chance they will aquire him.
He also has questionable work habits and attitude at times. That is not a typical Twin.
I think Buscher is better right now than Wigginton, and Buscher has a lot of growth potential.
I think DY has tremendous more upside that a trade of Garza for Ty…hmmm..
If your smoking some god stuff do share.
Sign Ty or lastly invite Crede in for 3rd.
Win Twins!
Joe,
Because a 430 foot triple is acceptable for a pitcher? And three of those videos are HRs to left field… so not sure how your logic applies there.
Also, consider Wigginton spent 2.5 years in Tampa, I’d say he’s probably got quite a few ABs under a dome.
“Wigginton is an overpaid utility player.”
$4.35MM last year for an .876 OPS is overpaid?
“I don’t believe the Twins are that dumb.”
How does a Wigginton signing make them dumb?
“Unless he comes really cheap, no chance they will aquire him.”
That, sadly, might be true.
“He also has questionable work habits and attitude at times.”
According to who? Did you just make that up?
“That is not a typical Twin.”
Yeah. He should slide headfirst some more.
“I think Buscher is better right now than Wigginton,”
That statement is just false on every statistical level possible.
“and Buscher has a lot of growth potential.”
Wigginton may be done improving, but Buscher’s a 28-year-old who still has yet to play a full season in the Majors. How does that signify that he has growth potential?
I suppose his glove could upgrade from that of an 8th grader to somewhere around that of a 10th grader, but that’d be asking a lot of him.
So 98,
Do you think that the Twins can do better with another manager?
Well here’s a new one…
http://www.npbtracker.com/2008/12/new-entrent-in-kawakami-derby-minnesota/
The Twins are interested in Kenshin Kawakami? What do we need a veteran Japanese starter for?
This has to be a mistake…
Steve
he seems cheap and they are probably just taking a flier on him to see if he’s any good.
Bring on Japanese pitcher to the team. Just like they were looking into the Korean market. Asian population in Minnesota also!
Win Twins!
TC,
Yeah……….
BC,
Your accounting report is materially erroneous. While I HAVE NOT done the books for a pro team, so I have not studied the difference of depreciating vs. expensing a contract, the only difference is the timing of the deduction, not the total allowable deduction.
ALL other expenses you listed would be ALLOWABLE deductions for any Corporation, Partnership, LLC, LLP or sole proprietor in the US.
There is one area where Sports Entities do/can cook their books (moving income from one entity to another), and it is limited to either owning both the team and the stadium, or most often the Media owned teams (Atlanta & Cubs). The issue there is that the Braves sell their TV rights to TBS (Cubs to WGN) for a low amount. This likely causes the Braves/Cubs to lose money as a Baseball entity, yet the TV Stations make a corresponding profit from selling the advertising.
Regards,
Kawakami won’t be cheap; he’s probably the most established Japanese starter looking to come to MLB.
He’s already drawn interest from numerous teams (Braves, Orioles, Red Sox, Mariners, Giants to name a few).
He’s got very good numbers in Japan, and I suppose a signing like this would let them put Perkins or Blackburn in the bullpen, but I can’t see that happening.
This kind of signing would be so unlike the Twins…
Steve from Fridley,
starting pitching (not the bullpen) was the problem with the Twins last year. (and heck if BS is looking into starters and he was last trading deadline - Washburn- so much more credit to him) the Twins have 4 MLB starters:
Slowey
Liriano
Baker
(order not random)
Blackburn is fine as a 5th starter, but that’s about it…
To play devil’s advocate (as I have displayed my dislike for Punto often on these posts), I would like to get opinions on Twins Geek’s post on the signing of Punto.
http://twinsgeek.blogspot.com/2008/12/if.html
Punto had a higher BA and OPS than Cabrera, Lugo, Renteria, Uribe, Wilson and Izturis.. guys that are getting paid much more money than he is. Defensively you could argue Cabrera, Lugo and Izturis are better than Punto (at least I would), but those guys are making 2-5 million more a season (assuming Cabrera signs for at least as much as Izturis did).
So although we would all rather have someone better at SS, I think that it is possible the Twins did not overpay for his services.
Another bat is needed because as good a hitter as Mauer is he is not a power hitter now and may never be. But, that said, he is a darn good hitter that should be hitting in the no. 2 spot in the lineup … not no. 3. You need a power hitter in the 3 hole. Even if Wigginton doesn’t make it through the year without getting hurt, if we get 10 to 15 HR’s out of him it is a vast improvement from the past and it could even get us a handful of more wins. TWO NEW PLAYERS IS ALL I WANT … Wigginton and Burrell. Put Burrell in LF, Span in CF and Gomez in RF alternating with DY as DH and RFielder. I have it all figured out … I wrote it down on a bar napkin sat on the stool ordering another contemplating the Twins’ next move … or probably lack of.
1)CF Span (L)
2)C Mauer (L)
3)3B Wiggington (R)
4)1B Morneau (L)
5)LF P. Burrell (R)
6)DH D. Young (R), RF, Cuddy (R), Kubel, (L)
7)RF Carlos Gomez (R)
8)2B Casilla (S)
9)SS Punto (S)
Lets get it done Twins.
It’s funny, I think. I love the Twins for their frugal spending and small market approach to baseball the way it is supposed to be done. But everyday they drive me to drink and I curse them as I fall asleep at night for that very same reason … frugal spending and small market approach to baseball. UGH!!!
Just once spend a teeny bit a money for a couple of decent players (Wiggs and Burrell). PLEASE GET IT DONE!
98,
You overkill the use of stats in every argument. Your thoughts and opinions are just as that. They are half-baked as anyone else on this blog.
RyanW,
I think that Punto will be an ok #9 hitter and a SS.
that said, there are more important things than #9 hitters this team should worry and spend energy about…
Joe C has a new article up. It looks like the Twins think Wiggy is too expensive. Big suprise! They might consider getting a reliever if he comes “reasonable”. I don’t see them making any more moves. Punto was it! Glad they got their new stadium. MN fans are chumps agin.
Punto’s never shown any form of consistency. He have had higher offensive stats last year, but he’s still only got a career OPS of .652, and in his so-called “good” 2008 campaign, he put up marks of .725 and .726. He shows great range in the infield, but can’t seem to overcome the mental mistakes. His irritating habit of trying to make every routine play into something spectacular is costly, and would be more apparent without Morneau at first base, as he does an excellent job of digging out low throws, which Punto has a propensity for.
Here’s a thought:
The Giants signed Jeremy Affeldt for $8MM, two years.
The Twins signed Nick Punto for $8.5MM, two years.
Personally, I’d rather have seen us spend eight million dollars to try to improve, not to stay the same because Punto is Gardy’s little buddy.
I think getting a reliever is a bigger issue on this team than finding a 3B.
A Harris/Buscher platoon is the best 3B option than we have had at the position in the past 4 off seasons… I agree that it is less than ideal, but lets not act like there is a massive hole at the spot like there was when we signed Batista. So sign Wiggy if he is affordable, but do not overspend (in dollars or years) for a guy that hasn’t been able to hold a 3B position in his career. I would rather have Crede in a one year deal than Wiggy in a 3 year one.
Wigginton is too expensive too now… just pathetic, Twins. Just absolutely pathetic.
All this talk about the upgrades we need, and we’re going to have the same team. Man, does Bill Smith talk out of his ass or what?
Splendid…. sigh. I guess I shouldn’t be surprised.
You heard it here first. With the same crappy team as last year and the fact that two teams, the Tigers and Tribe unexpectedly tanked and given that won’t happen again this year, we will finish at least 13-15 games out of first. Take that to your grave Pohlad you cheap ass clown.
FIRE SMITH NOW!!!
Don’t blame Smith or Gardy They are given a fixed budget from the Pohlads.
One freaking player… that is all we’re asking. The assclown got his stadium and will make millions off it and he can’t open his wallet to give the fans something to cheer about?
Anything over 2 years 15 mil is too expensive for Wiggy. Numbers-wise he looks like a good addition, but so did Lamb. There is a reason these guys do not stick at 3B for a team…
Smith and Gardy are making great money, more than most Minnesota fans dream about. They have no reason to rock the boat for better players. What a bunch of cowards in the front office.
That $8.5MM investment in Punto sure looks good now though, right?!
Thanks for pushing so hard for him Ron!
Mack,
Will it make you happy id Pohlad
Offers Tex & Manny $50 mil poer for 25 yrs. so I can quit hearing the cheap crap.
Particularly, the current complainers DID NOT complain while they (the complaining taxpayers) were on the GRAVY TRAIN for 2odd years, with the Twins suffering under one of the WORST sports leases in the world.
Payback’s a bitch!!!
Regards,
Pohlad could over pay his players $50 million and it would mean nothing to him as a billionaire other than a tax write off.
RyanW
It wouldn’t matter if it was 1 year 6 mil for Wiggy or any other player. They are standing pat and not spending this year….again!
Oh, yeah the Twins suffered you Idiot. Polhad was so devasted by that lease he is now the riches owner in baseball.
Sometimes I think it would have been better if the team had been contracted as ungrateful as you lot are.
Probably took $-10 million per year from the team and now you complain.
Regards,
Mack,
You seem to think your money is yours, and Pohlads is yours as well.
Regards,
That’s right Drag, you would rather take it up the rear year after year from the cheap bastard rather than lose the team. You’re coward and a joke.
Well, seeing as how this has gone from a baseball debate to a bunch of people calling each other names…
Have a good night folks.
Here’s hoping Joe C. was wrong, or that Wigginton’s market isn’t as big as he’d hoped and he signs with Minnesota…
There’s the door Steve…
I don’t even care anymore, the Twins will not make a single move the rest of this off season. It’s just like a re run.
where does it say he’s too expensive for the twins?
Mack,
Maybe you folks aught to elect some representatives with some sense. IF the worst run CITY in the US and maybe the world, can make a profit on a stadium, extorted from them by MLB, I would think Minnesota could figure it out as well.
DC is already taking in DOUBLE the money necessary to pay the debt service, even with the owners refusing to pay the lease over issues regarding the completion of the stadium.
Regards,
You’re right Chad and that’s why I am pissed. Supported this team for over 20 years… Tired of the excuses… At least Pohlad screws the fans with a smile on his face…
Drag you can get off your Twins front office knee pads anytime now… or take your act to lakestreet and earn a buck…
no need for the childish stuff now folks…
oh, found the article…rightfully not shown on the front page
what a joke. he’s worth more than 6 mill a year and worth more than blake.
every year this team banks on the young guys to contend as well as sign crap vets to fill in holes that end up doing worse than the young guys we already had. all that money wasted on vets could have been used for ONE stud, just one. thats all itd take to give this team a better chance.
now you role with the crap lineup that Joe C put out, with Young on the bench (!!!) and we’re supposed to think its going to get better? sure fine, we won’t have the bad personnel like we had (lamb, everett, bass, rincon, etc), but we will NOT bat .314 RISP. won’t happen again
and what if one of the starters gets hurt? you role out someone unproven like Humber and hope for the best? too many ‘ifs’ in this deal for me
Well here’s hoping every player improves dramatically, because it is highly unlikely a .540 club is competitive again next year.
2 more things
BS - just how much ‘room’ are we talkin here? its there if the ‘price is right’? as long as we don’t have to spend fair market value for someone its cool? same with trades? as long as they don’t want our precious talent and will take castoffs, you’ll do it? Riiggghhtt
one more thing - Buscher is hurrendous at 3B, and Harris is above average at best, since defense seems to be so important to you FO folks; just an FYI.
To Steve from Fridley:
2.5. times 3.5 games a year time 4 ABs a game = about 35 ABs, assuming that he played in every game in the Dome and got 4 ABs or even PAs.
And off whom and in what game situation did he get his hits. Off of Santana? Off of Nathan? Or off of Bonser?
The 2009 Twins won’t be thd 2008 season Twins, the 2009 Twins will be the 2nd half 2008 Twins. This is an improvement.
I could accept some type of deal for Hardy, but not including giving up Blackburn.
Otherwise, it’s more entertaining (and nourishing for the soul) to eat what you grow.
Even the NY Post letters on the CC
Sabathia deal were negative, because what does it mean if you buy the best team? What does that say about the organization? Who roots for mercenaries? What? So, someone puts on a Twins uniform, so now he’s my guy? Would you root for Osama bin Laden if he put on a US military uniform?
And everyone, stop writing about Pohlad’s money. The Twins have to turn a profit and at minimum, need 2.75M fans consistently over 3 years. I want tthe Twins to keep what they developed and if they waste money on classes B & C FAs, they’re wasting money that can be used to keep their own talent.
Joe,
Tampa has a dome…
I do not like that we are paying Mike Lamb 4 million dollars this coming year. I also would not like us to pay Wiggy 7 million in 2011 if Danny Valencia or Luke Hughes is our starting 3B.
Steve from Fridley:
So what? Eskimos have domes, too. How do you think Wiggy would hit in Alaska?
RyanW,
hate to say this, but Hughes is worse on the field than Buscher… and Valencia in one sentence simply needs to grow up… he is almost 2 years older than Gomez and a year older than Young…
Joe,
I think I posted Wiggy’s record in the HHH Metrodome up there, but for repetition’s sake here it is:
.314/.368/.486
Joe,
The original comment about domes, made way back when, was that Wigginton has hit .353 in domeS for his career.
I realize it was said as a joke, so this whole thing has gone on far too long, but I think you just misread Matt’s post.
The comment was that his .353 mark came in all domed stadiums, not just the Metrodome.
As for Wiggy hitting in Alaska, I think as long as it was his home stadium, he’d do just fine.
And Ryan, if it makes you feel any better, we’re only paying Lamb $3M.
Most of you bloggers must be liberal Democrats, beause all of you have the same solution to a problem: throw other people’s money at the problem so that you can feel good.
Whereas, a conservative takes a more prudent, cautious approach of working on the problem within a budget and within the local community.
And by the way, if you think Republicans (most of whom aren’t conservatives) were corrupt, wait until the Madoff scandal develops. He and his cronies were big time Democrats and they’ll make the Republicans look as if they’re Cindarellas.
Joe,
are you a plumber by any chance?
No, I, but I slept at a Holiday Inn Express last night, so that makes me as qualified for President or Senator or Secretary of State as, respectively, writing two books about myself before age 45 or being married to a US President.
And, yes, Steve From Fridley, we agree on something: I, too, believe that Wiggy would do just fine hitting in Alaska; so let’s hope the Dome Dunners sign him before the Twins make the mistake of signing him.
Joe! Do you think we’ve seen enough of ex-Astro infielders?
Yes, Mudcat, we’ve seen enough cheap FAs to forego trying it again this offseason. It’s tough to find a Chilli Davis or Jack Morris these days.
By the way, the Yankee revenue from advertising by Japanese companies made as substantial contribution towards covering Mitsui’s salary.
And, in response to some other posts on cost accounting, even with player depreciation, it’s tough for small markets to turn a profit in any professional sport, unless they have the attendance. So, go to the ball games.
Commenters who come on here to rip everyone apart are my favorites. I’m so glad to have met Joe tonight.
Let’s go over Joe’s analysis:
1. Everyone but him is stupid.
2. Ty Wigginton is a product of Minute Maid Park. He sucks, the Twins shouldn’t sign him, despite the fact that he’s posted a .786 or better OPS for 4 straight seasons, 2.5 of which were NOT in Minute Maid Park.
3. The Twins should bring up Danny Valencia and Ben Revere (apparently out of Class-A to the Majors is a smooth transition and we have room in the OF) and we’ll be better off.
4. The Twins should extend center field at the Dome like it is in Houston so our pitchers can groove fastballs down the middle, worry-free. Pitchers in deep parks throw meatballs for fun.
That about cover it Joe? Great insight here tonight. And all delivered so tactfully. Take a breather buddy. You’ve earned it.
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yes..DOMES - plural
sheesh. and yes, Tampa has a dome, and its not a hitters’ park, yet he did well there anywya
but not like it matters right? we arent ever going to get a real player brought in to this place. when is the last real deal free agent we’ve brough in (and don’t say Mike Lamb)
Steve
you made my evening.
Ah man. Who fed the troll?
Steve from Fridley:
Read your own posts, man, you’re the pot calling the kettle black.
And so cute, yea, sure, I should take a breather so that you get in the last word on an angry post.
Cool it, dude, get some sleep.
Hey, try this…..
2008, young team, lot of promising players, possibly only going to get better, missed PS by one (extra) game….anyone on the roster could have been the difference with one EB hit or a little extra effort in June/July/August….doesn’t matter, didn’t make it.
2009…don’t know yet….maybe they add a piece or two, maybe not….doesn’t matter. You folks, despite you’re wants/desires/b1tching, are not going to make it happen. BS does not read your posts!
So…
Here’s what you can do….2009, support what the FO and Gardy puts on the field in the dome.
If the plans work, if the powers to be figured it right, if they succeed….eat your words. If they almost make it/falter/suk…let it be known in Spring of ‘10……
Don’t go……
They wanted the new stadium, they got it. Unfortunately, despite that, they put a low quality product out for consumption, and nobody is buying. Despite this great, NEW, venue, nobody is impressed with the product and is not “coming to what is built”. That is your power. Whining/Sniveling on a blog is not. I know that this is your chance to tell me/other nobodys, what you want, but it IS NOT going to make a difference with the FO. Attendance is. If I could get to the games, I would likely be a Season Ticket holder, but it would cost me a $700 bill, and room and board just to make a game. I might do that…once… (OK I’m a (w)hore for a new stadium), but if the product isn’t good, I’ll probably settle for a handful of games a year on the tube, and you’re inane reviews/recaps. Whether you know it or not, myself, (and likely quite a few others) live vicariously through you people (OK, all except Thrylos{jk my friend}). I wish I could see more games (I was lucky enuf to catch THE RETURN OF LIRIANO last summer), and have already told the wif, that we will be taking the dog sled down for a week long series in 2010.
No matter what, I loved 1987 and 1991, and would love to have another hangover in ‘09, but I can’t do it. You can. If they don’t do it next year, when they should…hit ‘em where it counts in ‘10. That would suck for them.
I mean, I understand why the Twins wouldn’t want to give Casey Blake a three year deal, he’s too old. But Why would the Twins not go after Ty Wiggington? He’s still young and they have enough room on the payroll to afford him at 7 mil a year, so why not go for it? Unless their planning on future payroll issues once their young pitchers, like Baker and liriano, are eldgible for salary arbitration and need the extra money to give them raises in the future.
AKDanimal:
You’re exaclty right. Once the money flows in from much improved attendance, the Twins become a much more valuable franchise. To preserve the value of the franchise, the Twins would have to continue to put out a good product, because the threat of losing customers substantially could diminish the value of the franchise.
Of course, this assumes no more potential anti-trust or collusive deals between Pohlad and Selig. Hopefully, the other owners would put the brakes on any such potential problem.
Check out my Jan. 30 or 31, 2008 post on one of LaVelle’s columns, I hit the 2008 season on the nail.
The Twins view Wiggington as an average third baseman, but they are still looking at acquiring Derosa from the Cubs. A can of spray paint is about the only thing that could ever get him a gold glove. My opinion might not be worth a whole lot, and I’m sure most of us thought this, but like I said, when it comes to the Twins, expect an excuse not a signing.
rhielm, that’s why you don’t pay Wiggy $7 mil. a year. Then what do you think you’ll have to pay Baker, Liriano, Mauer, Morneau?
You get yourself into a spiral, just like the credit default swaps and you can’t get out of it. Of course, all of baseball is pretty much in such a spiral, but one of these teams will have to go bust soon, because they’ve got to be drawing on lines of credit based upon franchise value and in the current economic environment, pretty soon a lender has to say no and then there will be some unraveling of maybe many professional sports teams.
Do nothing to improve the team; and then shake your head when M&M, Nathan and all the other “keepers” on the team bail out when their contracts are over.
Torii and Santana were correct when they categorized the Twins organization as always building for a future WHICH WILL NEVER COME!!!!!
The players want to win, but when they see the lack of competitiveness in the front office, they will all abandon ship as soon as they can.
well, then I would only want to see Crede brought in on an incentive contract and play him with harris or Buscher in a platoon. To keep his back in line!
Go get Lyon or Nelson at least!
and the Japanese pitcher!
Win Twins!!
Sy,
You’ve got the horse before the cart and are wrong. First, during this decade, the Twins are one of the winningest MLB teams, yet the team doesn’t have consistent attendance from the fans to show that they support a winning team.
So, the Twins are, well, poor. Ergo, they can’t go out and sign every yahoo that might make a contribution.
(Pohlad’s not poor, but why does everybody think that he owes them something - he made a large contribution to the stadium and then threw in another $20M+ for more improvements),
And as to the comments regarding Revere, almost all superstars jumb to AAA from A and, typically, spend little time in AAA, so it’s not unrealistic to hope (expect?) that Revere could make a contribution later in the 2009 season, if needed at that point. So, the bloggers who comment that the Twins need to take chances on more quickly bringing up farm talent are correct.
Joe-
I agree somewhat, but don’t want to get to focused on business/product/beancounting.
I don’t want them to fill holes by getting A. Rodriguez (trade), and M. Ramirez, Dunn, and Peavy (we already have Punto). They could spend money and be like the Tigers and (personally I think they scored this year) pre-08 Mets, but that has proven to be no guarantee. I like the “let’s see what we got, add to it approach” as opposed to the “all in, we tried, didn’t happen approach”. The jury is still out on ‘09. Ther is still some wiggle room on improvement. However, if the choice is to “stand pat”, it had better work, or else, outside of “it’s a new park I want to see it” feelings, which WILL happen in ‘10, no matter what, I would hope that if this fails, after that has faded, the YOU PROMISED, YET YOU FAILED will occur, at which time, THEY WILL CHANGE OR THEY WILL DIE will evolve.
AKDanimal:
If the Twins draw over 3M this year, especially from increased season ticket sales, then 2010 might be a good time to try a trade or even some FA, but $7M on a Wiggy is way too much. And the Twins strength is pitching so if the team trades away defense or pitching, it’ll be cannibalizing its strength.
If anything, the Twins should be looking a either another starter or a good middle reliever. I don’t mind some FA signings, but every year on this blog it’s let’s sign lots of FAs when the Twins can barely afford one cheap and risky FA.
Joe-
We agree. THE team has always been big on home grown v. FA/trade. I don’t disagree with this, and don’t feel that a Wiggy/Beltre/Kouz/Adkins/DeRosa deal would be a bad thing, but it might end up like a Lamb deal. No matter what, it’s a crap shoot. I would love for them to make a move but, won’t hold it against them if they don’t, and A) they have plan which works, or B) if it fails in ‘09, they fix it for ‘10.
Personally, my thoughts are, they need a big (RH) stick, (aka: BIG, LONG, (I’m not a chick) BALL), and a Quality RH setup man. They can see what else the youth provide. (But, let me say that I am NO expert, and do not wish to be held accountable
Going with youth is fine. I’d rather take a chance on a minimum payroll player from the farm than take the same chance with a class B or C FA at a much higher cost.
Fans need to get out to the stadium this year and get the attendance over 3M. I live in NJ and will see 6 games at the Dome this year, plus, for the 2009 season, I bought two tickets for a 41 game package for my oldest son, who lives and teaches in SD.
However, one big difference between the Twins and some other teams is corporate support by the purchase of season tix by businesses. Almost all of the Yanks, Mets, Phillies, Angels, Dodgers, Giants, and Padres, to name a few, tickets at the field level around the infield and the super boxes are owned by businesses.
Such doesn’t appear to be the case with the Twins, because I was in Minneapolis the last week of July and the night before a day game, I was able to buy two tickets 8 rows behind the visiting team’s dugout to see Liriano pitch his first game upon returning from AAA.
Those are the tix that should be soldout every game, because they were bought by season ticket holders.
All.
I realize it is after midnight there, and the night is but a pup here, so, since I rented THE HULK, despite the fact that my spouse said, WHAT?????….I am going to watch it and I will see who rips me in the AM. Let me add, for your consideration, and out of the blue, if the FO were to aquire Adam Dunn (remember, I said I was not a chick, nor do I lead an alternative lifestyle), I would likely get a woody……
“Almost all superstars jumb (sic) to AAA from A” Joe?
Really?
Steve from Fridley was too kind to you.
Chief, that’s right; see, you air boys can’t keep up with us GIrines, that’s USMC, to you, Fritz.
That explains a lot, Joe.
Lots of thrust, very little vector.
Joe-
Saw your comment before I departed. I agree with your point on tix. Seeing as, the rare few times that I can get in there, I want quality seats, and usually do….I like that. However, as a perspective for those folks in the organization who might occasionally browse these posts for a grass roots opinion;
I try to catch the Twins annually in Seattle for a series. I HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME GETTIN GOOD SEATS! And this was in years when they (the M’s) were odorific! DO THE MATH!!!
Your wife agees with the thrust part.
AKDanimal,
How many seats did you want to buy? My experience has been that a single seat and sometimes two seats (though maybe with tandem seating for two tix) behind or near home plate is/are available to almost any BB game in any park in the US.
Except for a few times, I’ve never had a problem getting two seats in the home plate area of the Dome.
Joe-
Maybe, at the Dome. Before game, I got (3 seats) square and mid range behind the plate in July ‘08, and good seats FB side (x2) for the 2nd and 3rd games (Liriano pitching). However I will tell you that, on a weekday, at Safeco, vs. the Twins, I couldn’t get anything better than nose bleed or bleachers. And the crowd, although late, was big.
Chief-
I always thought it was “it’s not the thrust, it’s the humidity”?
I got one ticket for a game at Safeco and paid a premium through the hotel concierge, but that’s what the Twins need. And to think that the Mariners wouldn’t sign ARod. Of course, the year after he left, the Mariners set or tied the record for the most wins during the regular season.
Well, I was taught that the thrust gets the reaction and the reaction produces the humidity. I’ll have to check with a aeronautical engineer on this one.
Joe,
The problem is that Revere is not a superstar……..yet.
He wasn’t even advanced enough to start the season at Beloit. He was held back in Extended Spring Training to bring his defensive and baserunning skills up to an adequate level for Low-A ball.
He has great upside because of his hitting, but he has too much to learn to be a 2009 major leaguer.
The Twins have had “little to no contact with Wigginton?”
That’s a bit odd, no?
Chief,
“The Twins have had “little to no contact with Wigginton?”
Maybe the little contact was Wiggy telling the Twins:
“don’t bother!”
bill smith had better wise up soon, before its too late…what a pathetic article written by joe c today….the only thing getting to be too expensive around here is the cost of going to see the twins play…think about that bill smith…. and by the way what ever happened to this b.s. that if we got a stadium then we could compete for players ….talk about stuffing it down our throats or up our ____es…….
“We looked at a lot of deals,” Smith said. “In most cases, we decided it wasn’t worth what we were going to have to give up.”
As I predicted. PATHETIC. It is not too early to grade Billy Smith’s off-season performance so far a big fat F.
Joe says:
December 17th, 2008 at 12:40 am
Going with youth is fine. I’d rather take a chance on a minimum payroll player from the farm than take the same chance with a class B or C FA at a much higher cost.
Fans need to get out to the stadium this year and get the attendance over 3M.
If they draw over 3 million fans, it will just show them that they don’t have to improve the roster in order to draw fans; that we are happy with the status quo. They would not spend any of the additional revenue on players. If they do well this year, great, i will be happy and tip my cap to Smith and the rest of Twins management. If the perceived weaknesses that we, as people that supposedly don’t know as much about the game, see, cause them to play under .500 in a weak division, my loyalty will be severely tested, and i have been a hardcore twins fan for a long time. If they play under .500 this year, I hope they draw worse than the Marlins.
by the way, the weaknesses I see are as follows.
back end of the bullpen=weak
Buscher and harris at third base=weak
Cassilla will probably regress significantly
punto as starting shortstop without having to earn it
young on the bench while cuddyer starts=stupid beyond measure
Kidding me!: You forgot to also predict that Mauer would likely get hit by a bus, Redmond would poke himself in the eye with a pillow feather, and Justin Morneau would forget which team he played for and wind up in Boston for 81 games.
Tell me T, which of the weaknesses I mentioned are as unrealistic as your scenarios? Are you a Sid Hartman fan?
and I’m still waiting for some people around here to grow a pair and actually go on record with what they think is the “ceiling” for what the FO should’ve been offering Wigginton.
What happened we have room to increase payroll? I’m not saying payroll should be increased just for the sake of increasing payroll, nor should we be chasing after someone like Manny Ramirez, but we need upgrades at 3B and SS and nothing has come of it except a pay increase for a player who should never, ever, get 500 AB in a season. Yet, it seems that’s what the Twins will do. Wiggington represents an offensive upgrade (the home/road splits were discussed ad nauseum yesterday) at 3B and will not be worse defensively than Buscher. So what if he costs a little more than Blake? He’s younger and has a lot more power. If the team stands pat, and it appears they will at this point, they may win 80-something games again, but will not be capable of winning a playoff series. Isn’t the goal to compete for a World Series title and not to be content with an over .500 season?
Tell me T, which of the weaknesses I mentioned are as unrealistic as your scenarios?
Oh, you were serious? I thought we were just coming up with reasons to get pissed off.
If that’s the case, might as well add in concerns that Morneau can’t break out of his funk from last year…Cuddyer’s injuries will have complications…and Young’s impatience will barely improve (if at all)
Better?
Standing pat is not a plan. You either get better or you get worse. How without any upgrades can the team be better?
“back end of the bullpen=weak”
I think Nathan is a pretty solid closer.
The front (5-6) or middle/set-up (7-8) ends of the bullpen might be weak.
T: I posted my proposal for Wigginton yesterday. Reasonable?
Fair enough on the Wiggington ceiling, T. As I said yesterday, 2 years guaranteed with a club option on a 3rd year. If the option is exercised, something in the $20 - $22 million range would be my ceiling. I would not get to $8 million per year. If that didn’t do it, then fine. I’m sure there will be lots of differing opinions on that.
If Buscher and Harris have upsides, they may actually out-perform Wiggy next year and beyond.
Buscher has had only 300 MLB at-bats, so he has a good shot to improve on his .280, 6-57 stats. His throwing disorder is correctable, so I don’t think we have seen his ceiling yet.
Harris hit .276, 19-98 the last two years and hammered the ball last year until he was jerked around so badly, that he became a head-case.
Wiggy’s past is better than Buscher-Harris, but youth and upside may favor Buscher-Harris next year and beyond.
And they won’t cost $21 million.
T
Now you got it. Sorry, I’m just in a bad mood, and the team I love “standing pat” doesn’t improve things. I can be positive, too.
Morneau will be solid once again, and so will mauer.
The rotation will continue to improve, giving the Twins one of the best 1 through five pitching lineups in mlb.
punto will not do as badly as he did in 2007
gomez will continue to improve.
span will be solid again
sane, as far as Buscher improving his defense at 3rd, expecting defensive improvement from a 28-year old who’s been playing 3rd base nearly his entire career is ridiculous. Playing defense is the same in the minors as it is in the majors and Buscher’s had plenty of time to improve. He’s just bad.
sane
Buscher may have (a little) upside, but harris does not. Harris is at his peak, and is a nice player, but is not a true or stereotypical third baseman.
I agree with Ben…Buscher’s primary problem at third base is his complete lack of mobility. Even if he manages to improve his stone hands and scattershot arm–neither of which are likely at his age–he’s still going to be a defensive liability.
I would give wigginton 2 years at 7 mil per, with a mutual option 3rd year.
Good day to you all
Buscher’s throwing is most of his defensive problem.
If he is forced to correct (raise) his arm angle, the improvement could come quickly.
He just has to be convinced that:
1) His career depends on it.
2) He must first take a step backward (change his arm angle) in order to show improvement later.
Harris IS a stereotypical 3B.
He has a strong arm and inadequate agility to play middle infield.
I disagree about Buscher’s primary problem, Sane.
He’s got an inaccurate arm, but that’s minor compared to his poor mobility.
For every bad throw he makes, I bet there’s 5 balls he doesn’t even make a play on, which would be handled by a good third baseman. He can’t charge the ball at all, and doesn’t move well laterally.
And if you are all correct that Buscher is a lost cause (which I disagree with), then maybe giving Harris the full-time job will put the Twins 3B performance within $21 million of Wiggy’s performance.
I, for one, would rather have Harris be the full-time 3B than platoon him with Buscher. But I still think the Twins could do a lot better.
This wigginton thing really makes me think that they are set on building this team cheap!
Why then did they sign Punto?
I just can’t figure out what the hell they’re thinking!
It’s all about “Twins baseball” and I think it’s going too far!
They would value Blake(soon to be 36) at 2 years 15 million and say that paying 3 years 25 million for Wiggs(only 31) is over paying?!?
The only real difference is that Blake knows how the Twins play baseball. So this is the pattern for this season anyway-WE WILL OVER PAY GUYS WHO WE KNOW WILL PLAY CONCTRUCTIVELY IN THE TWINS BRAND OF BALL AND ANYBODY ELSE IS OUT OF THE QUESTION UNLESS THEY’RE SUPER CHEAP
P.S. THAT’S WHY DELMON MUST TAKE HIS STAR ELSEWHERE JUST LIKE ORTIZ HAD TO BECAUSE OF ALL THIS TWINS BASEBALL CRAP!! LET SLUGGERS SLUG AND STOP TREATING THE HITTERS LIKE THEY ARE ALL THE SAME!!
The great philosopher Plato once said”every institution will tend to crumble from an excess of it’s own ideals”
This 3B thing has gotten blown way out of proportion, but we still need to solidify the BP and there hasn’t been any real attempts to do that either.
JUST CONTENDING IS GOOD ENOUGH I HEAR THE MESSAGE BETWEEN THE LINES LOUD AND CLEAR!
Izturas signed a 2 year 5 million dollar deal with the Orioles yesterday. He is right in line with Nick Punto as a ball player. Career .260 hitter with a .319 OB% and a just over .300 slg% except Izturas steals bases, and actually plays gold glove calibur SS (3rd best in the NL last year)… 2 years 5 million vs 2 years and 8.5 million. Izzy is arguably a better hitter, and a better fielder, and without question a better base stealer…
Thanks Bill Smith for the marvelous upgrades so far.
I have an idea. How about you don’t sign Casey Blake, or Ty Wiggington and just keep Buscher and Harris at 3rd Base… because we will upgrade through osmosis.
Bill Smith = Kevin McFailedabortion
Jama,
I said Lyon from AZ all along from before day one of Free Agency, and guess who I read that the Twins were looking at now?
Which means that Lyon will now be the one player guarenteed not to sign here with the Twins!
