Even now, Nathan’s deal looks like a smart investment
Posted on December 22nd, 2008 – 11:09 AMBy Joe Christensen
In studying Cleveland’s signing of Kerry Wood for my Sunday column, I thought about how Joe Nathan’s contract looks in retrospect for the Twins.
I was a proponent of giving Nathan an extension last spring, and the Twins got it done, giving Nathan a four-year, $47 million deal.
I think it sent a great message to the team, that management was committed to winning in 2008, despite letting Torii and Johan go. Nathan had a rough second half, by his standards, and still posted an otherworldly 1.33 ERA.
Francisco Rodriguez took a 2.24 ERA (and his record 62 saves, of course) into a tough free agent market. Several closers were available in a tough economy, and the Mets were the only big-market team in the bidding. K-Rod, who turns 27 next month, managed a three-year, $37 million deal.
Cleveland gave Wood, 31, a two-year, $20.5 million deal, but if he finishes 55 games in either of the next two seasons, it triggers an $11 million option for 2011.
Wood finished 56 games last year for the Cubs, so basically if he does what the Indians are paying him to do, he’ll have a three-year, $31.5 million deal.
Wood has been on the DL 12 times in the past 10 years. Nathan, 34, hasn’t been on the DL since becoming the Twins closer in 2004 (knock on wood). He has three years, $35.75 million remaining on his contract.
The Twins did that contract in a different contract climate — remember, Kyle Lohse got a four-year, $41 million deal from the Cardinals in September — and I still think Nathan was a great investment.
Cleveland needed the Wood signing to match Nathan’s back-of-the-bullpen presence. Wood’s injury history makes it risky to be sure, but at least he didn’t cost the Indians their first-round draft pick. He was a Type A free agent, but the Cubs did not offer him arbitration.
(Juan Cruz seems like a good setup option for the Twins, but he’s a Type A free agent and would cost them next year’s first rounder, so they’re not interested.)
There’s always a risk when teams invest in pitchers, but Nathan paid big dividends in 2008, and I think he’s paying big dividends now.
If the Twins are having this hard of a time adding setup help, imagine if they needed to add a closer, too.
161 Responses to "Even now, Nathan’s deal looks like a smart investment"
Morneau’s contract of 6 years 80 million seems like an awful nice bargain now too with Teixera wanting 8 years for 160+ million. Morneau is a better player than Tex too.
1. Morneau is not better than Texiera
2. Nathan is worth the Money
3. With the market for Closers they always could have traded Nathan and gotten an actual SS or 3B and then signed a lesser closer for less money.
Come on now, Morneau is great but he’s still not quite at Tex’s level. Texiera is much more consistent is also a better defender, although Morneau is making major strides in that category. Still given the money difference Morneau is a better signing.
[…] Around the Majors – […]
Not sure if he is *better*, but he sure isn’t blown away by the comparison.
OK, then, tell me: With the Twins’ history of not giving up draft picks for Type-A free agents, tell me then which “lesser closer” that might be?
So far are front office has failed to land a big right handed bat and were hearing Michael Cuddyer could be that bat. I hate when they say this. Even worse were doing contract comparisons instead of aquiring a 3b or solid setup guy. Way to go Front office! Maybe they will surprise us hee hee!
I agree, Morneau isn’t better by any means than Tex but I’d say his contract is looking like a damn sweet deal right now in comparison.
Nathan is 34? Wow. so we’re saying that $12MM+ a year for a 35-37 year old pitcher is a good signing for a team too cheap to get a 3B? This has been my issue with their cheapness - Nathan has a small windo left, and Mauer is a catcher - the position that causes the most wear and tear on a player in the game. It’s nice to plan for the future, but what kind of future do they have?
btw, I love having Nathan on this team, and I agree it was a good signing, but only in the context of putting other players on the team also….
Nathan’s signing is only a “good” signing to the degree that the Twins are committed to fielding a championship level team during the term of that contract.
Based on this off-season, they’ve not convinced me that such commitment exists at this time. If they are satisfied with fielding a team that is merely competitive in a mediocre division, there was no need to pay Nathan that well, for that long.
Like many here, I’m getting frustrated with the Twins’front office this winter, but I keep telling myself there’s a lot of time yet. Something can still happen. If spring training starts and nothing has happened, then we all have good reason to be frustrated.
The Twins FO screwed up by not signing me. I am cheap and washed up. Too bad
About this time last year, I got beat up on this blog for suggesting Nathan adds more to the Twins than Santana did. Still say the same….just can not give folks the numbers to prove it.
I still come and look at the blogs but see that there are no rumors or acquisitions by the Twins yet. I still think that Punto was the only signing we will have other then maybe a MR with an ERA right around 4.25
Chad,
You’re in for a disappointing Christmas if you think the FO is going to sign any big names. “They are who we thought they were” a famous quote by Denny Green that applies to the Minnesota Twins once again. We all have high hopes in the off season that the FO will sign some great free agent or trade for the help we need but I think it’s clear that they have no intention of spending additional money to upgrade our infield. Please surprise me, Bill Smith, and get a right handed power bat (preferably someone who can play third or short) and some middle inning relief for the bullpen - a Christmas wish from SW MN. Go Twins!!
So, is it about signing big names or about putting together a winning team?
Seth,
it’s all about how someone defines “winning”… if the definition is finish above .500, then they are well in their way. If the definition is win a world series then they would need to sign/trade for some impact players (not necessarily ‘big names’) before they are half way there…
Seth,
I say it’s putting together a winning team, but I don’t know that I’m in the majority with that thinking… I think most believe that signing a big name is putting together a winning team.
Good afternoon one and all:
Seth, it is about putting together a championship-potential team.
Having cooled down a bit from the non-event winter meetings, I am more inclined now to give the FO the benefit of the doubt. I would not have given Blake 3 yrs, and I dont think Atkins, Kouzmanoff, Wiggington, or Beltre are long-term answers at 3B. (Unless Beltre was willing to sign long-term, and he’s not, so it’s a non-issue).
Seth…..today, it’s about Christmas shopping. BS is trying to figure out “who” to shop for.
a) The “immediates” want a big name, big buck guy now! 3b, SS, or MR…take your pick. Just do it now!
b)The “laid-backs” are happy with the Punto signing. Harris/Buscher is okay with them. Leave BS alone and let Gardy perform some more magic.
c) The “traders/gamblers” want to mix it up. Let’s trade for JJ Hardy. Let’s trade for DeRosa. Let’s trade however for whatever….but let’s shake things up and see what happens.
BS is just confused who to buy for….and the presents don’t come with a gift receipt.
rayreiner” am more inclined now to give the FO the benefit of the doubt. I would not have given Blake 3 yrs”
I would have in a flash.
My definition - Winning the division. Winning the World Series is too much about luck and timing and the right team getting hot at the right time. The only way to potentially get to the playoffs is to win the division (or the Wild Card, obviously).
The Twins have impact players. They have Mauer and Morneau. Kubel took strides in 2008. Guys like Casilla, Span, Gomez, and Young need to keep playing. Would I prefer JJ Hardy or Yunel Escobar to Nick Punto at SS? Sure, of course. But what would it take to acquire those guys, and would you really be willing to give that up to get them? Would I like to see Adrian Beltre manning 3B in 2009? Sure, that would be great (probably). But we’ve also heard that if we knew what the M’s were asking for one year of him, then we might not want him so much either. Geez, the Rockies asked for Slowey, Span and more for Garrett Atkins! If nothing else, signing Punto is better than signing Renteria or Cabrera!
Pitching wins - The Twins, even with last year’s losses of Santana, Silva and Garza, have very solid pitching, and they’re all young and should get better. They also have some AAA depth. The bullpen, as Joe pointed out, is anchored by one of the game’s best, most underrated closers. Guerrier will be better. Crain will be better. Mijares could be up for the whole year.
Pitching wins once you get to the playoffs, and if they develop as we think they should, Liriano, Baker and Slowey will be a very good playoff rotation. Blackburn or Perkins (or someone else who steps up) will fill in behind them.
All a team can strive to do is win the division. The playoffs truly are a crapshoot. Does that mean that winning the World Series isn’t the ultimate goal? Of course not. That is what everyone, including the front office is striving for. However, they are doing it wisely, and they are doing it in a way that allows them to compete every year. How many other teams that aren’t located in New York can say that?
JMP,
there are a couple of things here in play:
A. Fans traditionally have had lower expectations from the Twins than some other area teams. Case in point: After the last full seasons both the Twins and Vikings were one win away from post season play; they both did not make it. Fans (probably the same people, too) and media wanted Childress’ head on a platter while were applauding for Gardenhire’s contract extension. As a reminder the year before, both teams had losing records.
B. I think that finally a lot of fans are realizing that the Twins should be held to higher expectations than they were (just up there in par with the other team they share a stadium with) and are vocal about it, esp. when they realize that the current team might be ‘competitive’ but does not have a shot to win in the post season (if it even gets there). I am not sure whether it is the community’s investment in a new stadium or not that triggered that, but it might as well have been at least a catalyst.
it is all about expectations and fulfillment and when fans perceive their expectations unmet, they complain…
thry:
The reason I hated Childress was less about his on-field performance and more about his off-field performance.
1) Losing two games due to shoddy play calling and choosing to pin the blame on the QB he had annoited as “the guy”.
2) Telling one of the best punters in the game that he was going to lose his job to one of four bums off the street after one bad game.
Childress’s poor on-field play calling combined with horrid off-field comments made me hate him.
Not to mention that a football coach has far more control over the outcome of a game than a baseball manager.
Childress comes off with an attitude of “I am smarter then you” or I am the coach and you know nothing mentality. He is not at all personable. Arrogant
Exactly T.
How many times do the Vikings lose because they are not prepared for the opponent versus the times the Twins lose because they are not prepared?
MS
Seth,
Pitching does win but there were several glaring deficiencies with this team last year:
a. The Twins have 3 good starters, a fourth who might improve with age (Blackburn) and a 5th who needs to learn how to spot his fastball and develop and trust secondary pitches to hold a spot in a major league rotation (Perkins). The pen IMHO was fine last year once Rincon and Bass were gone and once Mijares was up.
b. The Twins had a huge home-road ERA differential last year. This needs to be addressed and changed. Could be the young age of the rotation, it could be preparation but it needs to be addressed.
c. This team is extremely vulnerable to LHP and LOOGYs as is. Other than 2 players with .199 IsoP (Morneau and Kubel), there is no other power bat (and esp. from the right side of the plate)
d. The infield defense of this team last year was bad and the guy who was a big part of the problem (Buscher) is now thought as part of the solution.
Getting a good veteran starter and a good RH 3B would go long ways for this team (and would cost less than the slew of Rincon/Monroe/Livan/Everett/Lamb cost last year)
I am not sure whether winning in the postseason is that much of a crapshoot if you have 3 good starters, a good defensive team and a balanced lineup (the Twins are hitting .333 as far as those 3 things go…) There is one additional important component that the Twins lack: situational management. Gardy has proven awful on that, esp. in the postseason…
They have been interviewing McHale lately and believe it or not he is actually kind of funny. I heard he was a real practical joker. I just hope that the Wolves are not his practical joke on the state of Minnesota.
The Twins organization is known nationally for playing good, fundamentally sound, hard-nosed baseball.
The Vikings? Under-prepared and hoping luck will be on their side.
Childress’s poor on-field play calling combined with horrid off-field comments made me hate him.
hmmm
How about Gardy’s off-field comments (e.g. setting his outfield and starting SS before the season started or throwing Liriano under the bus early last season or talking about Lamb’s fit in the team after he left without having a single conversation with the guy while in the team) and situational management? (eg. Juannie sucks in high leverage situations, let’s pitch him in those until he magically does not suck -or substitute Bassie or Guerrier for Juannie above)
Seth,
You say that pitching is what wins, it is not just pitching it is dominant pitching that wins in the playoffs if you have no bats. The Twins proved that year after year, Santana could be dominant but no one else and we could not win a series. If you do not have at least 2 pitchers that can dominate a series you better be able to score some runs. If the Twins could have gotten a clutch hit or 2 they may have did some damage in years past. How many times did we have a runner on 3rd with less than 2 outs and we can’t score. People want to have a chance if we make it to the playoffs and with the team we have now, above average pitching and at best average hitting we don’t have a chance in the playoffs.
“3. With the market for Closers they always could have traded Nathan and gotten an actual SS or 3B and then signed a lesser closer for less money.”
Tell me, if this is such a great option, then what stupid team is going to give us an established SS or 3B for the privilege to pay more for a closer than they needed to?
When it comes to needing to sign impact players to win, I also disagree. Philly and Tampa played for the World Series title with homegrown talent like Rollins, Howard, Utley, Hamels, Longoria, Kazmir, Upton, etc. Neither of those teams had a huge signing last year. To a lesser extent, the Bosox based on Pedroia, Youkilis and Ortiz were in the ALCS AFTER jettisoning their two big signings of the past 10 years (Pedro and Manny). The Angels made bis signings in Vlad, Hunter, Mathews jr., and have been bounced in the first round 3 straight years. The teams that define big signings, the Yankees and Mets, both missed the playoffs.
Let’s stop acting like throwing money at free agents wins world series. I truly believe Billy Smith would make a move if he thought it advantageous, but he’s not going to give up one of our top 3 starters, or both Blackburn and Perkins, and he is right not to. He gave up a starter for Delmon last year and (wrongly, in my opinion), got killed for it, so what do you want him to do?
If the Twins could get Hardy or Kouzmanoff for either Blackburn OR Perkins, plus prospects, I would jump all over it. Rumors are that the Brewers want more than one MLB-ready starter, which I would not do. The Padres are not budging on wanting Slowey, which I would not do. So the Twins will do the responsible thing, and keep their team intact. Come July, when the Brewers and Padres are both terrible, than they might be able to get those guys at a reduced price.
Any team can win in the playoffs they are a crapshoot. I don’t know what you mean by “dominant” but I hope you don’t mean you need a fireballer like Clemens or Schilling because you don’t. Liriano, Baker, and Slowey are all capable of dominating any lineup.
The Pirates today agreed to terms with six players on minor league contracts and an invitation to spring training: relievers Chris Bootcheck, Denny Bautista and Juan Mateo; infielders Garrett Jones and Andy Phillips; and outfielder Jeff Salazar.
Seth’s comments above are right on. The Twins are a much better team standing pat than they are being given credit for. Too many fans go into the off-season just assmuing that the only way to get better is to acquire somebody else. The fact is, virtually every member of the Twins’ current roster can reasonably be expected to get better (with the possible exception of late inning and set-up relief). Acquisition comes with a cost - either dollars to keep our current crop of budding young stars in the future, or one or more of those budding young stars themselves, or both. Ensuring an upgrade overall through acquisition is no certainty.
Thus, to thrylos’ point - sometimes the fans’ expectations are whacked.
Dan G., I agree that the homegrown talent is the way to go. But sometimes an organization is short in a position or two. Then, you have to look outside the organization. I really believe you need to have approach that encompasses both your own minor league system (the majority of players) and the free agent field. And just signing big names is not always the answer but sometimes it is. Why rule it out?
that could be a good situation for Jones. I really think he has a chance to be solid given daily playing time. Not saying he’ll be great, but he could be decent.
I always wanted the Twins to keep Jones
This goes out to T-Wolves fans
C’mon guys McHale is not that bad. Maybe just a few more years would pollish this gem of a team up. A few more last minute deals to acquire players of the talents of Foye. I can feel the immense tallent pool of players we have been selecting and holding on to. I actually miss Jaric and Ricky Davis.
“I was a proponent of giving Nathan an extension last spring, and the Twins got it done, giving Nathan a four-year, $47 million deal.”
Way to toot your own horn, Joe. How about you go back and tell us all of the bad deals you were also a proponent of?
Last year, every move made by the Twins Front Office turned into crap.
If they had NOT signed a single FA nor made the Garza-Bartlett for Delmon trade, the Twins would have probably won the division.
This off-season, they are trying to correct their last year’s mistakes by passing on Free Agents and trades, and they are getting crucified by their “fans”.
Making trades, where you are forced to give up more than you receive, does NOT improve the team!
Anyone want to see Kevin McHale and Punto squaredance???
What most of the negative people on this blog don’t get is, that the Twins need to, let me emphisize this, NEED TO, make good baseball decisions. For them to trade for someone like Atkins or Beltre at the price that the teams are asking for, is just strait up stupid. Seriously people get your heads out of your asses.
Say hypothetically that the Twins trade for someone and give up some talent that is a sure thing for them and that player fails, all you negative bloggers will do the same thing you always do, blame it on the FO and bitch until the cows come home. Unfortunately for people like you all the Twins can never do anything right.
For God sakes the Twins had a winning team with a bunch of injuries and disarray this past year. They did much better than anyone thought and I truly mean anyone.
So instead of bitching like most of you do, set aside the intelligent baseball minded bloggers you know who you are, and shut up. Seriously I am so sick of all the bitchy little twins fans crying about how the offseason should be like this and they should be doing that. If you all were so smart, why the hell aren’t you the Twins GM, Oh that is right because you don’t have a clue about what it takes and I surely am not going to sit here and talk out of my ass like I know what I am talking about, because I don’t. Just stop being so negative.
OK my Monday rant is over.
GO TWINS!!!
I bashed this move last year, and I was wrong.
Signing Nathan, Morneau, and picking up Breslow last year were all very good to great moves.
While I will never stop bashing the things that I disagree with… credit has to be given… those were 3 great moves.
A major league baseball team, owned by one of the wealthiest families in all of sports with the Pohlads, supposed competent scouts that have created a very good farm system, and a front office.. and the best they can do is re sign Nick Punto going into 2009.. that’s it… thats the best they can or will do… kind of pathetic.
If the logic goes “player is young, therefore he must get better”, then Cleveland and KC should also be better, correct? Is that always true? Was Delmon actually better in a meaningful way than his rookie year, for example?
Signing one legit FA would not discredit their entire approach. Signing one FA would not bankrupt them or remove their flexibility. It is not an either or, mutually exclusive, thing.
“if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” is one of the most evil statements ever developed. It is the root cause of many of the economic crises facing our nation today. If an organization is not striving to be better, it’s competition is, and it’s competition will beat it (in baseball or in auto manufacturing, for example).
TJ, nice attack. I’m ashamed I’m not the right kind of fan. You’ve set me straight. Polly anna agreeing with the team and saying they are always right is the only way to go.
thanks for the post
Hey Seth, how do you square your “Guerrier will be better” claim? I expect that’ll be the case with Crain, as you noted, given typical surgical recovery time. But Guerrier? He’s had only one solid year, which appears now to be the aberration. On what basis do you think he’ll be better in ‘09? I hope you’re right, though…
mike,
Cleveland is better!
Cleveland CAN’T be better, they signed a free agent. That is NOT the wise way to do things….
Read my lips no new Free Agents.
Cleveland’s one year backslide was due to injuries.
It can happen.
It could happen to the Twins young players, and screw up their “future”.
It can also happen to FA’s!
The injury risk is always there;
It can de-rail the Twins, WHATEVER path they take - develop young players; shoot their wad for single impact FA; stand pat; or all-in to buy the pot!
I already saw “Lucky Strike” Punto do it.
Lotsa good thoughts here today. I like Seth’s take - catch lightning in a bottle come playoff time. But that plan would work better with one more impact player allowing us to really compete with the NYs, LAs, Bostons and currently the Phillys. Baseball is such a psychological game. One more top level guy,(I used to bang the drum for Furcal), would do wonders for our younger guys. It’s a shame. We’re really close. Hopefully Young, Gogo or Cuddy can step up. Lookin forward to a fun year.
Sid, you just can’t be right. There is only the way the Twins do things. Those Red Sox and other teams that sign a FA here and there just are not doing it the right way and will never be winners. All real Twins fans believe that.
I just think if the Twins didn’t want Blake for nothing more then a contract and no talent loss. I just don’t see the team getting anyone.
mike wants wins I agree that if the Twins screw up and get a FA it may screw up the chemistry that LNP brings to the Twins.
Mannny coming to the Twins would be terrible. We don’t need a single thing for this team. No Blake or Beltre needed.
1) New Stadium (big bucks coming in..)
2) Bargain on Morneau
3) Bargain on Nathan
4) Bargain on Mauer
5) Payroll at $58M…
Tell me again why we can’t get a “Great” 3B and not just a fill-in?
mike,
I do agree with your statement that the Twins should upgrade now, while their three core players are near their peaks.
I don’t agree that players like Gomez, Young, Casilla, Span and the young SP’s may not improve next year, because Young didn’t improve from 2007 to 2008.
MOST (not all) young players with tools and without highly developed skills will improve their performances.
I think that description fits most of our younger players.
Is it a certainty?
No.
Is it likely?
IMO, YES!
Straight Shooter,
“New Stadium (big bucks coming in..)”
What is the ETA on the “big bucks”?
Dean - on Guerrier… he was horrific the last couple of months in 2008, no question. However, up until the precipitous fall-off, he was as good as any 8th inning guy. That was over about four months. In 2007, he and Neshek were pretty lights-out in the 7th and 8th innings, over the full season. His role has changed since he made the team as the last guy in the bullpen because he was out of options. He’s adapted. He’s been fine, and I hope with an offseason to recover and spring training, he’ll be just fine.
First name TJ last name Pohlad?
Is it true that the Minnesota Senatorial race run off will be conducted on the All Star ballots passed out at the Metrodome this summer?
We have an MVP and a batting champ. What more do you want? That’s just enough to bring people in and create revenue. Who cares about winning anything. Maybe a division title every once in a while to give you just enough to stay interested, and create revenue.
Sid, agreed, young players may get better, no doubt about it. I think Casilla can be better for sure, and GoGo couldn’t be much worse, so I think he’ll be better. Young, not so sure. He hasn’t hit more than 13 HRs since AA (I think I read that somewhere). He could go from GB hitter to fly ball hitter, I don’t know how often that happens. You usually hear about guys that go from linedrive doubles hitters to HR hitters, but that could be a myth for all I know. Span, not sure. He was really, really good early, but my recollection is that he tailed off (that’s just my recollection, no data here). I think he looks good, but he’s in the show me phase, where I won’t believe it until I see it more than 1 time, if you know what I mean.
The top 3 starting pitchers, I believe in them for the most part (though Liriano has now been injured twice, counting his time in the minors, that is a red flag). I’d be ok if they brought up one or more of the AAA pitchers and dealt one or both of Perkins / Blackburn, but I understand why they’d be hesitant to do that.
Buscher and Harris aren’t young, and aren’t all that good. If Harris was so good last year, I’m sure Gardy would have given him more ABs in September.
If they had NOT signed a single FA nor made the Garza-Bartlett for Delmon trade, the Twins would have probably won the division.
And it’s a good thing we have the ability to say this AFTER the season plays out.
Since Twins Territory was just extatic that Span and Casilla were going to be in the starting lineup.
Oh, and Nick Punto would’ve been the starting 3B.
Ok, I am not complaining about fans becoming more vocal, or complaining more, or whatever. Please, feel free - it’s your right. I just don’t think signing/trading for a big name is going to automatically make things better (see A-Rod in Texas).
Look, we don’t know what other teams are asking for in a trade. It’s easy to say: “Let’s trade for Beltre.” But what does Seattle want? I’m not willing to give up Slowey or Baker for him, especially since he’d only be here for a year (nevermind that the Twins are supposedly on his no trade list).
Which brings up another point: just because we love the Twins and MN doesn’t me other people (big name players) feel the same way. They get better endorsement deals by playing for bigger market teams, live in more exciting cities, etc. Not to mention being able to play outside baseball (I know, I know, new stadium in 2010, maybe that will help us attract bigger names). Just saying…
While World Series are great, I would rather they be competitive on a regular basis than go through decades of futility.
From a financial standpoint it is better to have an average attendance of 25-30k every year instead of averaging 40k once or twice every 10 years and 10k the rest of the time.
“Let’s trade for Beltre.” But what does Seattle want? I’m not willing to give up Slowey or Baker for him”
Yes JMP I know what u nmean we can just give them Buscher and Boof for him and that should seal the deal.
How many articles were written pre-winter meetings where Twins officials were quoted as acknowledging that the team needed upgrading on the left side of the infield (specifically with more RH power) and in the bullpen? There were plenty.
I agree that you build for a division championship and then the postseason is a roll of the dice, but when the FO publicly states they need to make specific upgrades, fails to do so, and THEN tries to spin their non-action as being acceptable and even positive… well, only a fool just continues to buy the Company Line.
I know a lot of people are huge believers in filling every hole with the next best minor leaguer in the system, and if you have a solid organization like the Twins do, that works much of the time.
But this team’s window for being a championship contender is open right now and I don’t think it is unreasonable for fans to expect the FO to spend a little money to fill apparent gaps… especially when the team can spend that money and still remain at (or well below) 2007 payroll levels and even further below the “percent of revenue” guidelines the team has laid out in the past.
This team has admitted that it has needs to fill this offseason to be the best they can be, they have money available to spend, and they have surplus talent available to trade (some of which they could lose anyway because they’re out of options).
There is still time to make improvements, but if they go in to the season with the roster as constituted today, the fans have justification for being upset with the organization.
T-
I think you have a good point.
I for one was not a fan of allowing Span to even go to Spring Training with the club last year. He did well enough, and with his season in AAA, and then in the Majors he made me a believer. I’m not sure if it was maturity, or the Lasic Eye Surgery, or an act of God, but Span became a major league player last year.
Casilla… you can’t blame the Twins fans entirely on because even Twins management got rid of him from training camp in the 2nd or 3rd cut of the training.
Punto at 3rd base… Cuddyer at 3rd base…
I almost wonder if it’s not a 100% lack of talent, but something about playing 3rd base for the Twins that just kills a player’s confidence, and ability…
Punto played SS and hit better (still overrated as a fielder).
But you are never going to get me to change my mind on the Garza/Delmon deal. That was a mistake in every single way that a mistake can be made.
I was always told that a rule of thumb in trading is you trade young studs for seasoned veterans only because the likelihood of both young talents turning out isn’t good, and the likelihood of getting burned is too great… especially when it’s a kid with ACE level ability. That doesn’t even have anything to do with the Delmon side of it… so don’t look at it like I’m picking on Young…
Garza needed the move, so it is what it is, but trading the best talent is not a good move unless you get a sure thing in return.
Can someone explain to me how signing Burrrell or dunn, who cost them nothing in terms of draft picks, keeps them from being competitive in future years? Unless they sign them for more than $12-15MM per year, their payroll would still be less than 2 years ago, while getting increased revenue from the new stadium next year. Let’s face it, unless they lock in the three key starters at a discount, they’ll be trading one or more of them in 2-3 years anyway.
And, before you say “sign Mauer to an extension now”, what do you think that would cost per year? Is it worth investing all that money in 1 player? If so, why isn’t it worth investing some of that money in a FA, why is it only ok to invest in current players?
jb, the point JMP is trying to make is that it’s easy to say “Let’s make a trade”, but people don’t tend to provide many options…if any.
Remember how the 07 offseason was essentially commenters packaging up players they didn’t want hoping to get one guy they did (Trades involving “unpopular” players such as Slowey, Span, Casilla, Punto, Cuddyer, etc)
T yes I remember that. If a team doesn’t want one or two of our players we will just give the team all 10 players we don’t want for 1 player we do want. Idea of strength in numbers. I gotcha
I don’t understand why Cuddy can’t be moved to 3B ? Outfield is solid without him & he does have infield experience. Couldn’t be that much of a defensive liabilty.
By the way, our cheer is WIN!TWINS!, unique,catchy, and historical. Knock off the Go Twins.
Cuddy cannot be moved to 3rd base for the following reasons
1. Gardy doesn’t want him there
2. Cuddy doesn’t want to play 3rd
3. He is almost 4 years out of 3rd base so he is not going to be better now than he was then, and he was terrible at 3rd Base!
4. We are not 100% sure he is ever going to have a season like 2006 ever again.
5. If healthy he is a very good RF with one of the best most accurate arms in the game.
6. repeat the top 5 until it sinks in
Seth and Dean,
Statistically, Guerrier had an elevated BB/9 and HR/9 then he previously had posted throughout his career. His HR/FB% was higher while his FB% remained stable to what he has given up in the past.
This may have resulted from his overuse in the middle of last year. Hopefully, with a more normal workload, I expect that those numbers will moderate and as a result he should pitch better this coming year.
Having said that I would hope they address the setup role with an offseason move.
We could have both Morneau and Texeria, but we took Mauer #1 in 2001. I love Mauer but I think I’d like to see Mornie and Tex hitting 3-4.
2 1st baseman
m
Tex came up as a 3rd basemen. He was moved to 1st because of Hank Blalock
colombo….for some reason your email and named popped up when i sent that last post
BC,
Thank you! Everytime I see/hear someone talk about moving Cuddy back to third, I remember all the complaining about his “horrible defense” during the short time he was there. I don’t think we really want to go there again.
Although, if he were to magically become an excellent fielder, it would certainly solve the crowded outfield issue…
BC Beneke
I think that McHale is doing a marvelous job at putting together a young competitive team. The Wolves are fast and exciting and great at rebounding and team unity. They by far have the best young NBA talent. I can’t wait till the All Star break to see where we are placed. I bet near the Top of our division. McHale takes time to teach jefferson deffense and it shows in his everyday performance. Keep up the great work Kevin
jimmy, good point. that team is young, and is being built through the draft and by trading old players for young players. All McHale is doing is following the Twins blueprint. thank god he didn’t sign any FAs to put with Garnett, that would have set the team back years in terms of competitiveness. Only the Twins way is the right way, all real Twins fans like McHale know that.
BC Benke
Cruddy’s zone ratings for right field are some of the lowest in MLB. He’s well below average in right field as well. He does have a tremendous arm tho.
I do think that most people, who don’t drink the Koolaid, understand that the tiwns have a solid team. A nice foundation, but…
The division was terrible last year. This year it stands to be better with the Indians getting more healthy. The Twins being the Twins, and not doing anything, s/b around .500.
Like many on this blog, I believe that something needs to be done. It doesn’t have to be a blockbuster trade or a huge FA signing (not a ton out there), but they need that right handed bat, and bullpen help.
I believe in doing most of your promoting from within. Outside of pitching the twins don’t really have much. You have to give a little to get a little, and although the Garza/Young trade seems more one sided, so far, I still think the Twins are a couple of players away from being legitimate contenders.
The Twins are a couple of players away.
JJ Hardy at SS
Kevin Kouzmanoff 3rd Base
Brandon Lyon RP
and bring up Duensing Swarzack to compete with Humber for the 5th spot in the rotation considering we’d have to trade one of our starting pitchers to get JJ Hardy or Kouzmanoff at the very least.
Most of you are flat out action junkies and want action for the sake of action. When these idiot agents realize that the nation is in a recession and teams are not going to be giving out many high-end contracts, then the signings will occur.
That being said, I agree that Brandon Lyon would look very good in the Twins pen.
yes, morneau is better then teshara (oops, texiera). if morneau played for any other team then the twins, he would average more home runs then texiera.
texiera would struggle to hit 20 hr for the twins…..
gardy ball holds players like kubel, morneau, ortiz, etc. back
i just dont get it….all last summer, all we heard about, and its true that the twins lacked homerun power..obviously being as far last as we were its pretty convincing that we did lack. just the same the team did damn well and we came oh so close, so common sense would tell me that we need to fill that gap that we all agree exists, long ball power at 3b….this team is set at all other positions, so why not just sign a guy like wiggy who can and will provide that extra punch that we need. he has for the the last 3 yrs or so been over 20 homeruns regardless of where he played so i see no reason he wont be just as effective at the dome and the following year at target field….signing him gives us the boost we think we need, as i do not want them to tear this team up trying to trade for some talent —we have a little depth and some fine pitching so lets not mess with it and just add this piece to the puzzle and see what happens…if it appears we need to make more moves at spring training time, i would look at it then, but i believe if we just add wiggy and all others perform as they have or better, we will be in great shape, even if punto is our starting ss……but again let us not dismantle this team to make any big changes at this time…..just a tweek here and there….wiggy is that tweek
Payroll off roughly $15M last year…a year where one win would’ve gotten them to the postseason.
Payroll again off roughly $15M this year.
New stadium opening next year, which the team specifically stated would allow payroll to expand.
Plenty of infield and relief help available this winter, some of it costing nothing but money.
Yet they’re “not embarrassed” to start the season with Buscher/Harris at third, and Matt Guerrier setting up Nathan.
If some of you are OK with that, so be it.
I’m not.
BC: Those “couple of players” are primarily trade targets. And unfortunately the Brewers don’t appear to be budging on Hardy being available let alone what they want.
If you want Hardy as a Twin, it’s going to take a monster package that’ll make Garza/Bartlett look like chump change.
What ever happened to the “new improved Craig”?
I was one of the people who was against the Nathan signing. I thought if we’re rebuilding why keep him around? I was wrong but we were half-way rebuilding last year….right? How good can this team be this year? Can they be that much better than they were last year? I think we’ll be as good as our bullpen.
Sooo…we’re willing to pay $12 million a year for a 34 year old pitcher to pitch 30-40 times a year, and only 1 inning each time; but we’re not willing to pay a third baseman ie(Ty Wiggington) $7 million a year to play say 150 games a year (that’s 1350 innings by the way)??? What is going on here? Seriously, our priorities are way out of wack…
Jake….
The Twins are convinced that Wiggs is a better option at 3B, but not for 7-10 mil a year. Nathan is over paid but he’s been one of the best at what he does for a long time.
A Harris/Buscher platoon won’t be the end of the world, but Guerrier and Crain having to pitch with a 1 run lead late in the game might.
Comparing the Nathan and Blake or Whittinton deals (or lack there of) aren’t the same thing. Nathan is among the elite closers in the game and has been for a while. Blake is a solid 3rd baseman with decent pop and average defense, but he is not among the elite at the position - he wouldn’t have even gotten the Dodgers a first round pick (just a sandwich pick between the 1st and 2nd rounds). The Twins were probably reluctant to give Blake a 3 year deal knowing that they have a few prospects working their way up into the position. Ditto with Wittinton, only more so because of his glove and the splits.
Good comments one and all. But here is an example of what money can or cannot get you. The Yankees, just spent $162 million for two FA’s(Sabathia and Burnet)now let’s just suppose that this team once again fails to get to the post season or makes it but end’s up leaving early. Do their fans bitch like most of us fans do when our team is content to stand pat without any trades or FA signings to improve our club. Yes the Yanks can afford it, the Twins cannot. My point is the Yanks are betting that these two guys and anyone else they sign will be enough to help them have a sucessful season for 2009. The FO has admitted we need upgrades at various positions and so far nothing major(except Nick Punto) has happened or is going to happen anytime soon. Maybe Im crazy, but after last season Im convinced our Twins team needs help!
I admit it has been a frustrating winter. All this waiting with seemingly nothing to show for it. The Twins may not be making any deals, but neither are anybody else for that matter. Actual signings have been few and far in between. ESPN has a free agent check list. There is something like 157 players listed, but only about twenty have been signed. Why do you think there is so much news about Tex out there? It’s party because the Red Sux and Skanks are involved, but it’s mostly because that is about all the action out there to report on. Blake may have signed with the Dodgers, but Wittinton is still out there. Crede is still out there. Beltre, DeRosa, Hardy and all the other players they were looking to trade for haven’t moved anywhere. With the exception of a few big names being courted by the usual big money free spending teams, there has been very little movement. Prices have already started to come down quite a bit on a number of players. The general consensus is the longer teams wait to make a deal, the more those prices are likely to come down. Once the Skanks, Red Sux and Mets finish gorging themselves, there will be a huge drop in prices and that’s when a lot of deals will get made. I really believe that the Twins aren’t going to go into spring training empty handed. Unlike previous years, I don’t think they’ll be relying on retreads this year either. They might sign a few or invite a few to spring training, but I think they will sign at least one legit bullpen guy. I also think they still might make a move to sign Wigginton. I haven’t checked lately, but as far as I know, no team has offered a deal for him and Cleveland looks to be the only team thinking of him as a starting 3rd baseman. It ain’t over ’til it’s over.
Believe it or not, the Skanks signing CC and AJ will probably to do very little to improve their chances in the East next year. First off, their pitching was fairly decent last year and that doesn’t leave much room for growth no matter how well the new additions pitch. Mussina won 20 and Pettitte and Wang had good years as well (I don’t recall how many they won). Their pitching staff had something like the sixth or seventh best team ERA, but they ranked near the bottom in team defense. Not only that, but they’ve done nothing to improve that awful defense either. Even worse, all that awful aging defense is going to be yet another year older next year as well. I read something that they were even thinking of moving Damon back to center to make room for another corner infielder. Can you imagine? Posada, Jeter, and Damon in the key defensive positions up the middle? The heart of your defense all over 35? That’s going to make for some pretty huge gaps for hits to drop into. The Skanks winning an additional 4 games with CC and AJ seems very optimistic to me - maybe a bit too optimistic. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, we are entering a new golden age of Yankee bashing. They will suck and suck for a long time to come. Just sit back and enjoy the show.
sploorp:
Here’s hoping, but not fully expecting. If the Crankies had the Exact same team, they would kinda suck (and still beat the Twins). I could see A.J. getting injured for a majority of the season, and easily CC pitching a little more down to Earth than what he did for the Brewers. Still, they’re going to be a force to be reckoned with. WS bound? I kinda doubt it. PO bound? …Can’t say. It really comes down to the Rays. If they’re anywhere close to last year, the Crankies might be in trouble, but it’s tough for a non NY-BOS-ANGELS team to be THAT good perennially.
*easily C CC pithing…*
C. Get it? …Sorry…
Do any of you Teixera fans actually watch baseball?
There is no way on this earth Morneau is not a solid notch above the aforementioned. That is nuts to even consider.
Morneau is not just the best hitting first baseman in the game, he is the best defensive first baseman in the game.
You have to actually watch baseball to comment intelligently on it.
How embarassing for you.
Last year after the winter’s dealings all the knowitalls and front office bashers were involved in their annual condemn the “cheap Twins’ and their lack of ’sexy ‘ deals. Remember how they cried about the stinginess of the the Pohlads for NOT giving Tori and Santana and Silva! those massive $ contracts. Losing those 3 would surely make the (what was it - 5 games UNDER .500?) 2007 season look sucessful compared to what they thought 2008 would give us. yah and there was NO WAY ANYBODY would keep up to the Tigers in 2008 and all their splashy additions, the Tigers were building a SUPER team . And once again The Twins forced their critics to eat crow in October as they finished Ist again for the 5 time in 7 years ( OK so it was JUST a tie but where did the Tigers finish?) When in the H@*# are you guys going to learn that established stars usually got their status for being what they WERE (past tense) and that what they were doesn’t always plug into the workings of a new team. They seldom EXCEED their production on a new team but they sometimes just match what they have done on the past. Did Tori or Santana have greater years? NO. Silva sure didn’t. What did that blockbuster trade with the Marlins do for the Tigers last year? Is Sabathia the 2009 version of D. Wiilis or what’s his name that went from the A’s to Frisco? ( oh yah I rememmber Zito) It seems to me that the teams who have made the most impact the past seasons are the ones who cultivated a talented ,hungry ,bunch of non sexy no names , like the Rockies 2007 and the Rays in 2008. Gee the Twins lose the best pitcher in baseball and finish how much better with 5 no names on their starting staff all under 26 years of age! The very LAST place I look for info or encouragement on what hope the team may have in the future is from blogs like this or esp . the Cities media . I will always trust Gardy and Rick and the front office before anyone else. You guys bitch about the Twins being cheap after landing among the elite last year. How would you like to be a Tiger Fan ? By the way where did the Mets end up after getting the best pitcher in Baseball? Amazing how the public will denouce congress or corporations for ridiculous and wasteful spending, but will ridicule their own favorite sports team for not engaging in the same?
Let’s see..we got Nathan and Morneau for a song, we got a new ball park coming, dough pouring down like rain in a southeast Asian tropical season and we can’t afford a 3B or SS (and a Pat the Bat)? What good is it? I love the Twins, always have always will, but I get so tired of fans worrying or being happy about the fact that the team either signed a guy for a bargain or can’t get a guy because the perception is he costs too much. Remind me again why that means anything to me? As I’ve said recently and will keep saying it. Twins have a nice, albeit short window right now to make it to Post Season and the WS. They’re not there yet though. So close. So if signing Nathan and Morneau was the end and not just 2 steps to building a Championship Team for 3-5 yrs, I think a lot of fans are going to be looking back in 2012 wondering what the heck happened..and when Mauer/Morneau/Nathan are gone it’s going to be a long time before that kind of trifecta comes around MN again..NOW is the time to act boldly, smartly.
Again..it can be done without decimating the teams future..it’s not a one and done deal. That’s what is so frustrating. There is still time. Make it so.
Hey Rick,
How have things been working for the Red Sox lately? Anyone can pick a team ie: Met’/Tigers and use them for an example to back up their reasoning. My wife is from MI and is a Tigers fan. Frankly she’s not that upset. Last year she was thrilled with her FO for knowing they had the makings..and they went out and did what they thought they had to do to win it all. Not their fault that the players didn’t execute. The desire and hunger to win by ownership is there. Same in Boston. Hunger to be the best. That’s what is missing with the Twins. Every move doesn’t pan out. But as I said, when you’re the Twins, unlike the Boston’s of the world, the Stars only line up every once in great while and they’re lined up NOW. If you want to waste the next 3-5 yrs Hoping to tie for a division title again, I can’t stop you. As for me, I see opportunity for WS titles and expect more than a half a… effort to get there.
Please cite me a single team in the majors that DOES NOT have a single hole somewhere? Yes, the Twins are soft at 3B and SS. We’re is great shape to ONLY have two soft positions. Most teams, even playoff teams, have at least that many. Accept the fact you will NEVER go into a season thinking “Wow, every single position we have is a great player!”. Accept the fact this club has consistently defied expectations, and HAVE A LITTLE FAITH.
Ryan is right. All we need to do is believe in the Twins. All of us complainers are not real Twins fans. I hereby repent, and will never question the leadership of the best franchise ever, ever again.
mike,
“I hereby repent, and will never question the leadership of the best franchise ever, ever again.”
Remember, that is now on public record!
Just kidding.
No one should be restricted within that severity of confinement.
Thank you, Mike. I appreciate the way you addressed my perspective in a mature and articulate manner. Perhaps next time you may try to also make a sarcastic remark at the main point of my post - which is that all teams have a soft position or two? I am grateful for bloggers like you who declare their opinions, but are unable to digest dissenting viewpoints. God Bless the internet.
Ryan, this blog is filled with people that say that you aren’t a real fan if you question the twins. You aren’t a real fan if you want them to do something. I’m tired of the condescending tone of those posters, and have reacted in an immature manner the last two days. Sorry.
Yes, most teams have more than a hole or two. Yes, the Twins have a process and skills that seem to keep them competitive right now. But, I’m concerned that nathan is 34, Mauer is a catcher, and they aren’t striking while M&M and Nathan are at their peak years. I’m concerned, like Torii Hunter was, that they are always playing for a future that never comes. I don’t care if they do something this week, or next week, or in February. But, I think they are a player or two away from being a great team, just as they have been all decade. I’m frustrated that they have not made a real effort (by acquiring a guy in his prime) to close those gaps. We all knew Monroe sucked. We all knew they kept pitching Livan last year and not bringing up Liriano to save money, not to win games. As a fan, I’d like them to go all in every once in a while. signing Pat the Bat costs them nothing but money, something they are rolling in right now, and will only have more of in the next few years.
Waiting for 2010 and the new stadium means that Nathan is 36 or so. Mauer has another year of wear and tear of catching. Baker, Liriano, Slowey are going to need to be paid. At some point, teams that are close and tease their fans (and publicly state year after year they have money to spend) and don’t make a serious effort to get better, are going to regret that lack of effort. What would this team have done had it signed a legit DH earlier this decade, heck, even a league average DH?
My snarky attitude was wrong. I’m just tired of being called not a real fan. I’m tired of people saying that anyone that thinks the Twins are wrong is a bad person. I’m tired, mostly, of the Twins not taking advantage of the opportunities they have.
AS for not being ok with dissent, I’m just the opposite. I only find these boards interesting when people discuss things. But, this board and others have turned into the “you aren’t a real fan” stuff lately. It’s turned into a bunch of statements about not questioning the Twins, and their wise ways, if you are a real fan. It gets tired, and I lost my maturity. I’ll strive to be better. I want good, honest discussions, they are interesting. You made a valid point, and I reacted badly.
why should we as fans, be satisfied if our team only has a few holes to fill???that makes absolutely no sense to me…why not fix that hole if we can, and the fact is we can, but its going to take us to spend some money…wiggy is a free agent who can fill that 3rd base hole and do it well,i might add. contrary to what the front office wants us to believe, wiggy is just what we need..a power hitting guy who can play 3rd and we have buscher in reserve, which is good…that means we have a strong bench also…now only one real weak spot and thats punto, but i think we can live with him if he can hit at least .265-285, somewhere in there….i think they will figure out the pitching holes during spring training, unless the right free agent would fall to us, and that would be great, but again i say lets fill the holes with free agents and not tear up this team for any trade, unless it was a blockbuster in our favor and i dont see that coming….lets just build up what we have from last year and go at it again…we were very close, but need to be better this year…..
Good post, Mike. Glad that I misjudged you as a solely sarcastic arse 
I’m on board with adding a player. In the same way the “you aren’t a real fan” folks polarize you, I get nervous when I hear, what seems to be, a “make a move for the sake of making am move!” attitude. Yes, I’d love to see the Twins add one impact player to the left side of the IF. I got a hardon at the prospects of Tejada at short and hitting in the heart of our order. But at the same time, if there just isn’t a good fit in the market ($ value, or chemistry, or trade deal), I don’t want to see us get locked into an overpaid bum. Casey Blake, to my mind, doesn’t seem all that much different than an Everett or Lamb - except we’d be locking in for more money and longer years. That’s going to tie our hands next year, or midseason, when there is something good on the table but we have that money committed to a 35+ yr old 3B who has seen his last 20HR season, and even in his prime wasn’t particularly good. Consider me a “cautious advocate” of making a move. I am stunned and grateful that for the better part of this decade, I’ve been able to watch great baseball late into September and beyond. I’d hate to risk that by making a move for the sake of making a move, and as a result breaking our longterm viability. The mid-late 90’s were a cold, dark time for us; I don’t want to go back. Being out of the race by June is a far worse prospect than “only” making the playoffs. We’ve had the best decade in Twins club history - yeah, it’s frustrating to be so close you can taste it, but sometimes you need to talk to a KC fan to realize just how good we have it.
POINT OF REFERENCE: In 1991, the Twins left side of the infield consisted of Pags and Gagne. Pags hit .279 and Gagne eeked out .265. They *combined* for 14 HR and 78 RBIs. That’s very Buscher-Punto-esque numbers, is it not? Point being: Even our championship teams had shortcomings, particularly on the left side of the infield. Just because we may not make a move for a big bat on the left side doesn’t mean we’re not going to be a contender for the WS.
mike,
Critical posters get slammed for “not being true fans” and supportive posters get slammed for “drinking the Kool-aid”.
I am pretty sure most of the posters here ARE true fans who don’t drink Kool-aid.
It is just the way angry posters attack without having an intelligent argument to present.
Ryan, I’d be all with you on the flexibility thing, if there was any evidence that they’d use the flexibility in mid-season. But, I think this last year, and most of this last decade, shows that this is all talk from the FO, and no action. They could have added a player last year, and didn’t. Heck, they could have called up Liriano earlier, and didn’t.Why? Likely to save some kind of obscure arbitration dealy thingy. That, to me, showed the team’s true colors when it comes to spending money to win.
Frankly, I can be sarcastic at times, and it just doesn’t work well in this kind of milieu. Your response to my e-mail was appropriate, and I appreciate you calling me out. have a great holiday season everyone. LEN and Joe, thanks for your posts and blogs. We get pretty constant updates. Joe, good luck with the new kids, assuming I read LEN’s comments corectly.
In 91 they had dominant pitchers and more good hitters than they have now. And, they were consdered pretty lucky. How would 92 have been different had they signed a real 3B to fill that hole?
Sane, i prefer the posters that post both positive and negative things about the way this team runs and plays. They have more credibility in their arguments than the negative nabobs and the polly annas, at least to me. Your in that group of people (the good group).
mike,
Thanks.
And you are certainly a very valued contributor to the discussions.
Happy Holidays to you, LaVelle, JoeC, Howard and all the posters that make Twins-tracking so enjoyable.
mike -
Could it be the Twins felt that Liriano wasn’t ready?
mj1 -
Could it be the Twins don’t feel that Wigginton is worth the amount of money he is going to get?
Pete, it could be that. But, if that was their belief, they were just about the only people on the planet to have that belief not named Hernandez(and they were wrong).
At that point, I’d have been happy had they sent hernandez packing for any AAA pitcher, let alone the one that had absolutely dominated for a month, while he was the worst MLB pitcher for a month.
Pete, none of these players are worth the money they get once they enter their prime earning years. So, the team has a choice to make, overpay to potentially improve, or stand pat and pocket more profit (and hope your internal players get better). The Twins appear to be choosing the latter (as they have for most of this decade), which is their right. But that doesn’t make them right for sure, nor are fans required to be happy with that choice.
mike -
And what happened in September? Liriano had a rough month. Who is to say that if the Twins bring him up a month earlier he doesn’t hit a wall in August instead?
As far as I know, the Twins gained nothing monetarily from keeping Liriano in the minors. Isn’t it possible that they did it for other reasons? Reasons that might actually make baseball sense?
As for overpaying for players - the Twins should do it because everyone else is? I actually enjoy the way this team is run from a financial standpoint. And again, the Twins may feel that Ty Wigginton is not a good baseball player. They might have him valued as a 3-4 million dollar a year guy. Which means that they may be willing to overpay him a little, but not twice what they think he is worth.
This team seems to be run VERY well. They have competed for a playoff spot 6 of the last 8 years. They seem poised to compete again this year, without adding a single player. They have locked up some of their young talent, and made some shrewd trades over the past few years to stay competitive. Most of the free agent acquisitions have failed to pan out, but the team doesn’t seem to try and outbid other teams for the services of players. And it seems to be working.
mike -
“But that doesn’t make them right for sure, nor are fans required to be happy with that choice.”
And I don’t mean to sound like I think all fans should be. I was pretty annoyed at the Livan Hernandez signing last year. I didn’t care for the acquisition of Craig Monroe. But I can disagree without calling for the job of Bill Smith.
I agree that it is waaaaaay too early to call for Smith’s head. He’s had one year. I’d think three offseasons is the right number to judge his ability to make the team better. So far, I’d not give him a passing grade. But, Young could all of a sudden learn to hit the ball in the air, so who knows. But, last year was not anything BS did. Span and Casilla were only on the team when others got hurt, and nearly all of the players brought in by smith were failures (Lamb, Everett, Hernandez, Monroe, Young) with few exceptions (Gomez’s defense made up for his horrid offense).
but, I agree. Way too early to call for his head. I actually agreed with the Lamb experiment, decent upside risk, virtually no downside risk at that price.
Here’s a toast to the Twins owner and front office. Thanks for screwing the fans for the 17th straight year…
Calling for Smith’s job is also fruitless, if he were to be replaced someone else in the FO.
When the time comes for a REAL change, the new GM will have to come from the outside.
Another round of musical chairs, like took place in the previous Terry Ryan-to-Bill Smith Reorganization would change nothing.
The same people are making the same decisions as before.
That is probably because the same ownership has approved of those decisions.
“Here’s a toast to the Twins owner and front office. Thanks for screwing the fans for the 17th straight year…”
It has been consensual.
I just finished reading all these posts and I am still wondering what your thoughts are about Delmon Young? I don’t know about anyone else but every time a ball was hit out to left field I HAD to hold my breath. I saw him make quite a few errors out there and could never build up the courage to put my trust in him. Always having that feeling, in every game, just ate at me. I understand he has some potential with his bat, but he didn’t come through too well last year. I would like to see him traded, an outfield without him would make me REAL happy! I want to know how others feel about this, just seeing if I am alone on this issue…
Why is everyone convinced that Bill Smith “failed” with the Young/Harris/Pridie trade for Garza/Bartlett/Morlan trade? Garza had a very good season, no doubt. But Bartlett was pretty poor from an offensive standpoint, and Morlan seemed to regress a little at AA. In return we got a starting left fielder who put up an average offensive season, a multi-position player in Harris that is better with the bat than Bartlett, and a guy who, if I remember correctly, was rated the best defensive outfielder in the minors last season.
And I know it’s pretty cliche at this point, but Delmon Young was playing at age 22. That’s the same age as Eduardo Morlan. The Twins dealt from a strength to address a weakness. I don’t see it as a loss.
I don’t care how you spin the numbers, $12mil for 68 innings is not a “good investment.”
Ryno,
If the Twins would have had a Nathan-clone to pitch the EIGHTH INNING, 68 times last year, they may have won the World Series.
No Rincon, no Bass, no Crain, no Guerrier, no Reyes, no Guardado blowing up in the 8th inning, before we get to Nathan in the 9th.
That’s worth $12 million, for 68 innings.
Pete, not everyone thinks that. I think they lost in 2008 for sure. I think they’ll lose in the future also, but not everyone else does. Many people think Young will still be a good to great player. I do not share their optimism.
In 91 they had dominant pitchers and more good hitters than they have now.
The pitching is pretty close. The hitting is close too. The only difference was that the 91 club had more power balance from the left and right side of the plate whereas the current team does not have any RH power.
The pitching had some dominant guys and some bad guys. On average it was close, but I’d say they were much better set up for the post season that year than this year. 92 is the year that sticks in my craw from that decade. that could have been another championship year, but they stayed put mostly.
$12mil for 68 innings
here is another way you can look at this:
68 IP = 204 outs. Nathan gave 43 H, 18 BB has 2 HBP; total 63. So he got out (i.e. did his job) 204 from 267 batters he faced. If a hitter reached base (i.e. did his job) in 204 out of 267 plate appearances, he would have had a .764 OBP
would such a hitter worth $12 mil a year?
Comparing a hitter’s success ratio to a pitchers success ratio would ONLY make sense if the average batter’s OBP was .500.
“The only difference was that the 91 club had more power balance from the left and right side of the plate whereas the current team does not have any RH power.”
The 91 Twins were actually LESS balanced than the 08 Twins.
91
vs. RHP - .276/.338/.403
vs. LHP - .291/.359/.465
08
vs. RHP - .280/.344/.413
vs. LHP - .275/.332/.397
Actually, that’s really surprising. We’ve been hearing time and time again about lack of power from the right side of the plate, but it really doesn’t seem to be THAT big of a difference.
Tex is a Yankee now, so he’s obviously the best LOL.
Seriously, Morneau is excellent. Tex is slightly better with the bat and has a superior glove.
“vs RHP” is not the same as “LH batter”
sid -
Absolutely. But if you have a team that bats nearly the same against both right handers and left handers, does it matter what side of the plate they bat from?
Pete D,
“does it matter what side of the plate they bat from?”
Only if you call it “lack of power from the right side of the plate”.
Then its just not what you are calling it.
Only the TITLE is wrong.
I thought in “Damn Yankees” that the Senators sold their souls to the Devil.
This years revival has the Yankees selling their souls to the Devil and they will all go to Hell in October!
sid -
Ah. I see what you are talking about. Yes, the Twins left handed batters have more power than the right handers. But it shouldn’t matter, because the lefties hit left handed pitching just fine.
Sid,
A Senators’ Fan (Senators: First in war. First in peace. And last in the American League and the precursor to the Twins) made a deal with the devil.
In the end, though, whatever Lola Wanted Lola got.
October is a long way off.
roundabout,
Aren’t the Yankees going to take your advice again, this year, and go with the “young” pitchers like Hughes and Kennedy?
Or, are you no longer on retainer to the Yankees, after they took your advice last year?
Sid,
CC and AJ aren’t old.
Obviously, going with the kids last year didn’t work last year. I still like the young pitchers and still thought it was a good idea. This year, Hughes and Kennedy will sit and learn in AAA.
Nah, I aint on retainer. Last year is over. This is a new year.
roundabout,
Just kidding.
I apologize for that, but I just couldn’t resist.
2008:
As RHB .266/.317/.377
As LHB .290/.360/.436
1991:
As RHB .284/.338/.419
As LHB .273/.356/.420
huge difference. And the interesting thing is despite Mauer, Morneau, Kubel and Span being all left handed, the 1991 team with Herbie, Pags and sometimes Chilly put similar numbers. RHB is another (sad) story
Sid,
I took it with good humor lol.
I bet the house too on the young kids. It was a long season lol
thrylos -
My point is - why does it matter? If the Twins as a team hit lefties and righties exactly the same, what difference does it make if they are right handed hitters or left handed hitters? It shouldn’t make any difference at all. Can we improve the team by bringing in a bat? Absolutely. But looking at the splits versus lefties and righties, it doesn’t make a great difference which one we get, since the team as a whole hits each hand fairly equally.
I guess what I’m saying is - don’t exclude a guy because he only hits left handed. If he hits well, he would be a welcome addition. We don’t necessarily need someone who mashes left handers, because our top guys - Morneau and Mauer - hit lefties fairly well.
our top guys - Morneau and Mauer - hit lefties fairly well.
I understand what you are saying, back back to the ‘91 team comparison to look at more detail.
Stats against lefties:
2008:
Mauer: SLG .525, isoP .164
Young: SLG .441, isoP .141
Morneau: SLG .435, isoP .169
Harris: SLG .391, isoP .136
Kubel:SLG .374, isoP .142
1991:
Mack: SLG .528, isoP .240
Chilli: SLG .511 isoP .241
Harper: SLG .447 isoP .131
Leuis: SLG .445 isoP .145
Hrbek: SLG .445 isoP .168
if you look at the power numbers they look very different… That’s why the Twins need at least one power RH bat.
A couple things they can do to improve the team:
a. sign Wigginton as the every day third baseman:
last season against lefties:
.340/.424/.631 (.291 isoP)
career against lefties:
.288/.364/.514 (.226 isoP)
b. trade Caddaver for Bill Hall and use him as the RH DH/PH and utility
last season against lefties:
.306/.371/.522 (.216 isoP)
career against lefties:
.278/.355/.493 (.215 isoP)
(and Cuddaver’s last year’s numbers against lefties were .250/.370/.324 , .074 isoP and career .283/.371/.441 , .158 isoP; so Hall is a definite improvement)
Get those 2 on board with minimal cost and the 09 team is starting to look more like the 91…
HAHAHAHAHA… Got to love the Yankees. They spend $423 mil and they’re still not done. The richest owner in baseball, cheap ass Pohlad, won’t spend and extra $2m to get Blake. And I don’t want to hear about overpaying, small market team bullcrap. If there is a hell for cheap pricks, Pohlad will be king.
Enough with this window of opportunity baloney. That seems to be the new catch phrase. or catch all phrase . How many times has that argument been made and by fans urging the FO to make hasty deals that were imprudent , just to take advantage of that closing W. o OP. Weren’t the Twins supposed to have crumbled if the FO didn’t hang on to the Koskies and Doug M’s and that bunch? Last year it was gloom time because the window was slammed shut by not keeping Tori and Santana . Today it’s woe are we for we won’t keep the M&M boys for long. Some fans are so wrapped up in that stale thinking they don’t realize that ‘windows’ also let fresh air in! No I don’t want the M&Ms gone but I think the situation is different now with the new stadium ,I can see M&M doing the Hrbek and Radke thing and staying with the Twins. And really I don’t think the FO ever had a game plan to be mediocre. Every Twins caravan I been to over the last 15 years was filled with hope that the players aquired and the team fielded would be a competitive one. Players get hurt , don’t fit in with the new teammates etc. For every great free agent or trade made that helps a team, there are probably 2 that fail . You don’t think fans in the bay are blogging right now still mad about giving away Nathan and Booof and Liriano. Just like Ryan (8:01 AM)said “Have some faith”. Last year fans wanted action by the FO and got the Garza- Young trade. Whoopee ! then they crabbed because Garza did well on that surprising Ray team . Today they want Young traded and next year they will be bitching that 23 year old Delmon matured into a superstar! The Twins only need to make one move , just one and that is a big stick at 3rd. I have FAITH they will solve the bullpen needs with shuffling the talent within the organization and a shrewd pickup like Breslow was last year. And I don’t see any sure things out there at third for them . Possibilities ,but no sure thing.
Ron my friend,
It’s going to be a sad day of reckoning for you when M&M and Nathan are done. Either gone or retired. There is a window. Also your comment had one Telling phrase…”FO Hopes the team will be competitive each year”..that’s the current catch phrase baloney.
Twins can tweak and improve so much right now WITHOUT tearing apart the foundation of this team. Not just for the sake of signing someone as another blogger said, but for the sake of Trying to win a WS!!!!!! No slugs this time but legit Major League players who are available to us right now. Someone just has to pull the trigger. All that and we keep Delmon too. Your one move theory is sadly understated…one move to do what? Win 87 games and be in the race for the Central into Sept. finish 1-7 games back in the end and blog your way to oblivion like this again next off season? It’s going to take 3-4 moves. If your good with that..fine..as for me..I see a shot at a WS team and the window will not be open for long..now is the time.
One of my pastimes has been to set aside many sports mags and such in a pile to reread in the winter. I done that since I was a kid. One recurring lesson I have learned is that the “experts” are no more expert than any of us in their predictions of the future. Sure their access to clubhouses and news sources is an advantage they have and should have to keep the average fan juiced . One example, The Sporting News , long self described as the baseball bible, said these players were ‘falling’ or were at the end of their value (3/24/08). Tim Wakefield,Jermaine Dye,Francisco Rodriguez ( I kid you not),Mike Mussina!,Carlos Pena, and the Philles pitching staff,etc. My point is ‘what is a legit major leauge player , that sure thing? Carlos Beltran was the sure thing for the Mets a couple of years ago, they and the Yankees have stockpiling ’sure things’ for years now and the world series is conspicuous by their absense. Sexton was a sure thing for the Yankees last year and Twins fans thought he would have been a good fit here. Yes I would like the Twins to be WS champs but neither the experts or the fans here or I myself can guarantee how to fill in those missing pieces. But with 6 playoff in the past 8 , my faith still lies with the FO.
