December 2008


More thoughts on Ty Wigginton and Brandon Lyon

Wednesday, December 17th, 2008

Some follow-up thoughts after hearing the Twins won’t aggressively pursue Ty Wigginton but have expressed interest in Brandon Lyon:

(*) Wigginton does not play third base well enough to be the everyday guy for the Twins. Brendan Harris is a better defensive third baseman and equally versatile. Both bat righthanded. Harris will make about $500,000 next season. Wigginton will make at least $6 million.

Wigginton was a force at Houston’s Minute Maid Park last season and finished with an impressive batting line: .285/.350 (OBP)/.526 (SLG). But after June 17, Harris quietly batted .300/.362/.495.

As La Velle has noted, the Twins finished with 91 RBI from their third basemen last season, even with Mike Lamb chewing up all those early season at-bats. A Harris/Brian Buscher platoon might not be perfect. There are reasonable questions about whether Buscher can repeat his performance against RHP from last season: .316/.362/.432.

But the answer is not Wigginton, who isn’t a 500 percent upgrade over Harris.

(*) Lyon’s best pitch is his breaking ball. He is not overpowering but mixes his pitches well, not unlike Matt Guerrier. I know some readers will write him off after that comparison, completely forgetting Guerrier’s 2.35 ERA in 2007 and 2.83 ERA through June 7 last year.

Why add Lyon if the Twins already have a version of him in Guerrier? Lyon has been a closer and an eighth-inning guy. He was 26-for-31 in save opportunities last season. The Twins might not be upgrading, but they’d be adding depth. The presence of a pitcher with late-inning experience could really help Guerrier, Jesse Crain and Jose Mijares get comfortable in their roles.

Through July 18 last season, Lyon held opponents to a .238 batting average, but they hit .392 off him the rest of the way, as he lost his closing job with Arizona to Chad Qualls. His agent, Barry Meister, said Lyon is fully healthy.

In 2007, Lyon was terrific in a setup role, going 6-4 with a 2.68 ERA. He made $3.125 million last year. There is some thought that he’d take a one-year deal to rebuild his value before hitting the free agent market again next fall.

Ty Wigginton: A closer look

Tuesday, December 16th, 2008

Still no indications the Twins have expressed interest in Ty Wigginton, though we’ve been told they like him. La Velle reported Sunday that the Giants, Pirates and Indians are all in the mix.

A few facts about Wiggy, who was featured in our 2007 Trade Target Series, when he was playing for Tampa Bay:

Age:  31 (Turns 32 on Oct. 11)

Bats: Right

Salary: He made $4.35 million this year and the Astros non-tendered him because he was due to make about $7 million through arbitration. Wigginton is now a free agent and is probably looking for a three-year deal.

2008: He batted .285/.350/.526 with 22 doubles and 23 homers with the Astros, very impressive. An OPS+ of 128. He was limited to 111 games because of injuries to his left thumb, rib cage and groin.

Inside those stats: Big red flag here, as Wigginton thrived at Minute Maid Park, which is especially friendly to righthanded hitters. He batted .343/.390/.691 at home, compared to .234/.316/.380 on the road.

Defense: I’ve read mixed reviews, but I believe there’s a reason he has not been handed an everyday third base job and told to run with it. One of his assets is his versatility, as he can also play second base and first base. He started 74 games at third base for Houston this year.

Twins 25-man roster, a current projection

Monday, December 15th, 2008

The winter meetings have come and gone, and not much has changed for the Twins. I still think they’ll try to upgrade third base before spring training begins, though I’m done assuming they have a big move up their sleeve.

Is Ty Wigginton the answer? I don’t know. I know the Twins like him, as La Velle reported Sunday. But they liked Casey Blake, too, so I’m guessing it’ll depend on how much Wigginton costs.

There’s also the theory that they MUST address the bullpen. Not sure the front office agrees. There’s continued talk of reconstructing the bullpen from within.

For now, let’s project the 25-man roster, just to remind ourselves what’s here. The following predictions are based partly on Manager Ron Gardenhire’s stated preferences, for Nick Punto at shortstop, etc.

STARTING LINEUP
1. LF Denard Span (Left)
2. 2B Alexi Casilla (Switch)
3. C Joe Mauer (L)
4. 1B Justin Morneau (L)
5. RF Michael Cuddyer (R)
6. DH Jason Kubel (L)
7. 3B Brian Buscher (L)/Brendan Harris (R)
8. SS Nick Punto (S)
9. CF Carlos Gomez (R)

BENCH
OF Delmon Young (R)
C Mike Redmond (R)
INF Harris (R)/Buscher (L)
INF Matt Tolbert (S)
OF Jason Pridie (L)

ROTATION
1. Scott Baker (R)
2. Francisco Liriano (L)
3. Kevin Slowey (R)
4. Nick Blackburn (R)
5. Glen Perkins (L)

BULLPEN
Joe Nathan (R)
Jose Mijares (L)
Jesse Crain (R)
Matt Guerrier (R)
Craig Breslow (L)
Boof Bonser (R)/Philip Humber (R)/Jason Jones (R)

HELP WAITING AT ROCHESTER
RHP Kevin Mulvey
RHP Anthony Swarzak
LHP Brian Duensing
INF Luke Hughes
INF Trevor Plouffe

Twins re-sign Punto to two-year, $8.5 million deal with option for 2011

Thursday, December 11th, 2008

The Twins have re-signed free agent Nick Punto to a two-year contract with an option for 2011. La Velle has more details from Las Vegas.

“Nick has been an important part of the Twins’ success for the past five years,” General Manager Bill Smith said in the announcement. “He provides great defense up the middle and brings leadership and energy to our lineup.”

Terms of the deal were not released.

Punto, 31, batted .284 (96-for-338) with two homers and 28 RBI in 99 games last season.

On Tuesday, Twins manager Ron Gardenhire told reporters Punto would be his starting shortstop if he re-signed with the team. Other teams who spoke to Punto included the Mets and Phillies.

Update: The deal is for two years, $8.5 million with an option for 2011. Punto will get $4 million in 2009, $4 million in 2010 and the option is for $5 million in 2011 with a $500,000 buyout.

Give Delmon a mulligan for April and May

Wednesday, December 10th, 2008

There are no mulligans in baseball, of course, but the concept can help when making evaluations. The Twins have this theory about giving players extra chances to prove themselves, especially young players coming off a trade.

This helps explain why they’ve expressed little urgency to trade Delmon Young, at least overtly, though his name keeps popping up in trade rumors. The front office would rather give Young a mulligan for 2008 – or a two-month mulligan, at least.

In 1999, they traded Rick Aguilera to the Cubs, acquiring a 20-year old pitcher named Kyle Lohse. The next year at Class AA, Lohse went 3-18 with a 6.04 ERA.

But by 2001, Lohse was in the big leagues, and no matter how you view his career, he signed a four-year, $41 million contract with the Cardinals in September.

The Twins made two big trades last offseason, and none of the players they acquired delivered eye-popping results. A closer look at the numbers, however, shows how most shook off early season slumps.

Delmon Young, OF
Age: 23 (Turns 24 on Sept. 14)
The beginning: He batted .264/.323 (OBP)/.337 (SLG) with no home runs and 15 RBI through May 31.
After May 31: He batted .305/.343/.444 with 10 homers and 54 RBI. For comparison, after May 31, Torii Hunter batted .275/.342/.461 with 14 homers and 52 RBI in a solid first season with the Angels.

Brendan Harris, INF
Age: 28 (Turns 29 on Aug. 26)
The beginning: Batted .262/.315/.376 before the All-Star break and lost the starting second base job.
After the break: Batted .272/.353/.434 after the break, looking more comfortable at shortstop and third base.

Jason Pridie, OF
Age: 25 (Turns 26 on Oct. 9)
The beginning: He batted .243/.276/.392 for Class AAA Rochester before the break.
After the break: He batted .326/.364/522. Baseball America named him the International League’s best defensive outfielder. Pridie needed another mulligan after his big league debut, as he muffed a ball in right field at a critical moment in Toronto and barely played again.

Carlos Gomez, OF
Age: 23 (Turns 24 next Dec. 4)
The beginning: He batted .253/.287/.351 before the break with one walk for every 28.5 plate appearances. He stole 21 bases but was caught nine times.
After the break: He batted .268/.313/.379 with one walk for every 19.5 plate appearances and was successful in 12-of-14 stolen base attempts. Gomez did some of his best work in September, during the heat of the pennant race, batting .289/.330/.470.

Philip Humber, RHP
Age: 25 (Turns 26 on Dec. 21)
The beginning: At Rochester, he went 4-7 with a 5.92 ERA before the All-Star break with 1.46 strikeouts for every walk. Opponents batted .300 against him.
After the break: He went 6-1 with a 2.67 ERA with 4.33 strikeouts for every walk and an opponent’s batting average of .233.

Kevin Mulvey, RHP
Age: 23 (Turns 24 on May 26)
The beginning: He went 3-6 with a 4.07 ERA for Rochester before the break with a 50/22 K/BB ratio.
After the break: He went 4-3 with a 3.59 ERA and a 71/26 K/BB ratio. Mulvey had been in big league during spring training, and the Twins thought he pressed too much early in the season before settling down for a solid finish to his first full season at Class AAA.

Deolis Guerra, RHP
Age: 19 (Turns 20 on April 17)
The beginning: At Class A Fort Myers, he went 7-2 with a 4.83 ERA before the break.
After the break: He went 4-7 with a 6.08 ERA, but the Twins spent the entire season refining his motion, trying to tap into the potential velocity for this 6-foot-5 youngster.