For the Twins, the Washburn ship has sailed
Posted on February 3rd, 2009 – 6:52 PMBy Joe Christensen
OK everyone, time for a deep breath.
I did some checking today, and the Twins have lost their appetite for a Jarrod Washburn trade. Also, the glitch that makes you scroll through multiple pages to see the bottom of our blog comments is only temporary.
I’m still not sure to what extent the Twins and Mariners have talked recently, but it’s very possible the M’s wanted the Twins to revisit the Washburn idea to free up some payroll.
As baffling as it still sounds, the Twins did agree to take on Washburn’s contract in August (including all $10.35 million for 2009) before M’s president Chuck Armstrong nixed the deal.
“I did not want to move him just to save money,” Armstrong later told the Seattle Times.
As one Twins source put it today, “They missed their chance.”
I pursued the story because I thought we might be getting the tip of the iceberg. I figured it was possible the Twins could take on Washburn’s salary and part with Delmon Young to get a big return from Seattle.
How about RHP Brandon Morrow? No, I was told. The Mariners view him as an untouchable.
What about C Jeff Clement? As we thought, he’s not a good fit for the Twins, who have Joe Mauer entrenched at catcher. Even if you got creative with Clement and made him a first baseman, there’s Justin Morneau, and the Twins have Jason Kubel at DH.
Since we’re talking Twins and Mariners, what about Adrian Beltre? He’d be a great fit, but he has a no-trade clause and the Twins would expect to have to compensate him — in addition to the Mariners – if they wanted him.
Many expect the Mariners to go into the season with Beltre and then look to trade him at the July 31 deadline.
Around the horn
(*) The Twins have made multi-year offers to Matt Guerrier but have made little progress in their negotiations and appear determined to take this all the way to an arbitration hearing.
Guerrier is one of the biggest pros in the clubhouse. He wore down under an enormous work load last season after Pat Neshek got hurt. The gap is big (Guerrier asked for $1.75 million, while the Twins offered $1.2 million), but the Twins would be wise to find some middle ground here.
(*) The Twins continue to shy away from reliever Juan Cruz because he is a Type A free agent and would cost them a first-round draft pick.
(*) A Joe Crede signing remains a real possibility for the Twins. There are some in the organization who really want to take the chance, and others who think it’s too big of a risk.
A key point to consider: What chance does a player coming off a back injury have of staying healthy while playing on FieldTurf?
121 Responses to "For the Twins, the Washburn ship has sailed"
Great to hear both that the Twins don’t like Washburn, and the changes are temporary to the blog.
Beltre would have to be compensated, sure, but that was the whole reason for the no trade gambit. It wouldn’t hurt to ask, but I never get the sense that the Twins have even asked what he wants. it could be something really doable: my wife makes great cookies, for example. Or he could just want to talk about an extension. And frankly having that discussion today is about as favorable a time as any in the past 25 years.
As baffling as it still sounds, the Twins did agree to take on Washburn’s contract in August (including all $10.35 million for 2009) before M’s president Chuck Armstrong nixed the deal.
Baffling doesn’t do it justice.
Why on God’s green Earth (or your diety of choice) you would choose to add a player like Washburn (with his salary), who would at best be your 5th best starter, is beyond any rational comprehension that I can muster.
The Twins are lucky the ex-Mariner front office displayed even more inept decision making on that deal.
No problem, Joe, at least you give us something to read about in this boring pre-spring-training period!
Seriously, does FieldTurf really rough up backs? We fans have never played on it, so we don’t know!
Good stuff, Joe. I presume the Type A thing is also ruling out Sheets? Are they at least considering it?
Since the Twins thought Wigginton would cost $6mm/year and he signed for $3mm,
does that mean Crede’s $5mm+ asking price will come in at $2.5mm?
I think Joe’s on to something with the “big pay day”. I can’t imagine the Twins would just eat Washburn’s contract for nothing. But glad to see that everybody was getting REALLY worked up over nothing.
[…] Around the Majors – […]
A year into his GM job I’d have to give Smith a fairly
low grade. Giving him a break on Santana because he was
under the gun and the DY-Garza trade may yet be ok his
body of work has not been good. The FA’s last spring all
turned sour and he waited a little to long to cut the
cord. He failed to add help last summer when the need
was clear and this winter has done nothing to improve
last years team. I hope he can get things turned around
but I’m starting to lose faith.
I’d be ecstatic if we signed Cruz. First round draft pick is tough to give up , but it’d probably be worth it.
I wouldn’t mind having a Washburn for Cuddyer trade 1-1.
That actually:
a. saves the Twins money in the long run
b. gives them someone better than Perkins for the 5th rotation
spot.
c. addition by subtraction in the outfield by getting the
weakest link (who also happens to be the oldest and most
expensive) out of there.
for anything else, Washburn would have been too much
Which comes to the biggest story of the day, the
signing of Wigginton for less than Punto money by the
Orioles and the passing by the Twins. Huge mistake.
Punto was signed at the beginning of the Free Agent market…before anybody realized how low prices were going to go.
Guys like Blake are probably thanking their lucky stars that they had a bidding war going early.
cruz is wild and has had problems with clubhouse issues in the past. add that to the fact that we’d have to cough up a first round pick and it doesn’t make sense.
IMO, if Bill Smith makes a move, it will something no one has heard anything about. The man is very, very, VERY tight-lipped. Just the way he should be!
Still like Crede as a signing. Go with Ayala or Gagne as a bullpen plug.
Win Twins!
Sorry if this has been posted, Wilson Ramos is starting at catcher for Ven
wow i really cant belive the big fat blimp didnt make that move would of been right up his alley give alot to get nothing. the economy is horrible and people are loosing there jobs all over but for some reason bill smith can sit at his desk and lie to everyone and eat all day and somehow keep his job.
I still like Cruz. Yes 1st rounders are tough to give up, but one out of every 5 first rounders in the TWins organization ever make it to the major league level. At point this orgainzation needs to get a known major leaguer to help us TODAY! and forego a draft pick. I’m saying it is a good rule of thumb, but say once a decade they could pull the trigger on a Juan Cruz type guy and fill a big hole. Having a flame thrower in your pen in the post season is just huge. Look what Balfor did for us a few years ago and what he did for the Rays last year!
Also, sign Crede. If he can’t play 3rd on the turf everyday, so what? He can DH and would be a statistical upgrade over Kubel. These are moves the club can make at rock bottom prices, but Bill Smith needs to get some balls and pull the trigger. I’d much rather give up a first round pick for an arm than trade Delmon. This isn’t rocket science here, it is a lack of balls in the front office. These are moves for the sake of moves they are ways to improve this team and give up nothing more than a pick and $$ they clearly have.
We need those 2-3 guys to put us in the playoffs with the talent we have-I think a first rounder is worth a Cruz pickup as well. What are we waiting for-we have most of the pieces-lets get the rest before we lose what we have.
“b. gives them someone better than Perkins for the 5th rotation
spot.”
Actually, it just gives you someone who was better than Perkins last year. Looking at fangraphs.com, both pitchers actually project to have a FIP in the 4.70 range. It probably could be argued that each guy will produce at roughly the same level next year. The only difference will be Washburn’s contract edge.
Wouldn’t Crede being playing on the dirt 99% of the time? Is the dirt different on fields with fieldturf?
do i buy a ps3 and the show or just mlb2k9 i have an xbox360 already. is it worth the extra $300?
email me some responces to my previous comment please. johnduci91@yahoo.com
Baseball Stars. ‘Nuff said.
Actually, it just gives you someone who was better than Perkins last year. Looking at fangraphs.com, both pitchers actually project to have a FIP in the 4.70 range
Not quite. Here are the numbers.
Choose your crystal ball.
I am still waiting for the PECOTA projections to come out,
but Washburn projects better than Perkins
FIP
Perkins: Bill James: 4.74, Chone: 5.09, Marcel: 4.68
Wash: BJ: 4.61, Chone: 4.78, Marcel: 4.68
“A Joe Crede signing remains a real possibility for the Twins. There are some in the organization who really want to take the chance,
and others who think it’s too big of a risk.”
Please list the @#$%@#$%@#$%’s “who
think it’s too big of a risk.”
They should be fired, or shot if the Twins have enough money for ammunition.
“Not quite. Here are the numbers.”
I guess I don’t see how that conflicts what I said. Both guys seem to be in the 4.70 range. I suppose CHONE is harder on Perkins than the others, but, again, these are just projections. Do you argue that they aren’t going to put up similar numbers next year?
nothing will happen, it’s all talk
More experience is unlikely to help Washburn improve.
He has already peaked and plummeted.
Last year Perkins was coming off a 2007 arm injury and was pitching his first (nearly) full year in MLB.
Perkins is younger and far more likely to have multiple productive years in his future.
Perkins has much more upside than Washburn.
Its like comparing Delmon to Cuddaver.
Washburn and Cuddaver, at this point, have their futures behind them.
Sign Cruz. How many mid round draft choices make it?
Plus in the first round we always sign lesser players
because they are cheaper. Cruz bridge to Nathan makes it
a 7 inning game. Well worth the price.
Cruz last two years 112 2/3 innings pitched with 158
strikeouts.
Cruz or Sheets are probably worth our #23 pick in June.
1996 #2 Travis Lee
97 #9 Cuddy
98 #6 Ryan Mills
99 #5 BJ Garbe
00 #2 Adam Johnson
01 #1 Mauer
02 #20 Span
03 #21 Matt Moses
04 #20 Trevor Plouffe
#22 Perkins
05 #25 Garza
It would appear that the 23rd pick might be worth Cruz
or Sheets!
If they are that desperate for a veteran pitcher and if M’s
are willing to eat about 5 mil or better of that contract..
The twins should talk to the M’s about Washburn without
including Youngs name at all.. Maybe a couple pitching
prospects could get us Washburn… At least he will
make Bonser and Humber and Perkins battle for that 5th
spot
sign crede anc cruz …forget about the damn draft choice
losing one is not going to kill anything….this has been
the most frustrating off season that i can remember in
a long time…bill smith must just sit in a trance all
day and hum….it takes the seattle front office to save \
us..lol….ya gotta love that…too damn bad about wiggy
as i really was pulling for him to come to minny-thats
one we will regret, remember you read that here….if i
were bill smith i would sign sheets, cruz and crede and
get my ass to florida….but then im not mr bill
Why is it so tough for the Twins to give up a first
round draft choice for a guy like Cruz or Sheets? The
Twins have a so-so draft record, at best, in the past
decade. Yet, many of these free agents are almost sure
things. Why such an unwillingness to part with pitching
prospects (we only have 50 of them) and draft choices
(which we don’t know what to do with) in order to get
the help we so desperately need in this organization???
BS to BS!
By signing some of the FA’s still out there (Dunn, Ramirez, Abreu, Sheets, Cruz, Hudson) the Twins could virtually ensure themselves the division championship and, in this market, without breaking the bank!
FA’s may never be this cheap again.
Sign some, and give us fans some hope and excitement!
No wonder Johan wanted out of here; the Twins are run with such low expectations.
I’m on the Cruz bandwagon myself.
Personally, I think the importance of 1st round picks tend to be overblown by the Twins brass. 1st round picks seem to under achieve more often than not, plus the team has to put up a substantial signing bonus as well. It becomes even more overblown when it continually keeps the team from signing a player that could really help the club, versus … ??!
It would be one thing if the team completely sucked last year and were picking among the top five or so. But they didn’t suck, they almost made the play offs and will be picking something like 23rd. By that point, the talent pool sort of levels off and the order doesn’t seem to matter much. There probably won’t be much difference between the player they sign with their 23rd pick and the one they get in the second and third rounds.
It also seems to me like the other teams have suddenly gotten very frugal with their first round picks as well. That means Cruz is most likely going to wind up signing with a team that has already signed a type A free agent and doesn’t have a first round pick to lose.
Everybody loses. Cruz is already not getting anywhere near what he’s worth. Arizona will most likely not receive a 1st round compensation pick. Most importantly, the Twins miss out on a total stud reliever.
I posted this on a few sites already, but nobody ever said why this couldn’t work, so what the heck, I’ll mention it again …
What if Minnesota contacts Cruz’s agent and negotiates the best deal they can. Arizona signs Cruz to the deal Minnesota negotiates. Minnesota trades a mid level and a high level prospect to Arizona for Cruz - say Humber and, I don’t know an outfielder or something.
Minnesota keeps their 1st round pick and snags Cruz way below what he’s worth. Arizona is insured that they will get compensated for Cruz and with players much closer to the majors than they would have gotten with their picks (if they even panned out). And Cruz? There isn’t much he can do about this years market and the economy, but at least he would wind up playing for a team with a real shot at the playoffs.
And one last thought … if Cruz moves on at the end of his contract, he might still be a type A free agent which would give the team compensatory 1st round and sandwich picks at that time.
So, can anybody tell me why this wouldn’t work?
Whoever just suggested they should target Manny Ramirez should have theri posting privileges pulled. The guy just turned down a $25 million, one-year deal from the Dodgers. And that’s after tunring down a multi-year deal that would have paid him more than $20 mil a year too. Not going to happen.
[…] I am glad that Joe Christensen was able to confirm that the Twins do not have interest in Jarrod Washburn. As expected, the rumors involving Washburn and Jeff Clement coming to the Twins for Delmon Young […]
“bill smith must just sit in a trance all day and hum….”
Accusations that the GM and FO are lazy AND the owners are cheap, make no sense.
Since their offices are in the same building, how could cheap owners tolerate lazy subordinates not earning the salaries that are being paid to them?
That scenario is total nonsense and must emanate from the twisted minds of chronic “haters”.
sploorp…You can’t trade a player you just signed as a FA. Therefore, Arizona would not be allowed to trade Cruz to the Twins right after signing him. I don’t know the exact restriction but it’s either a certain # of day or certain # of days. You obviously can trade someone you signed in the off-season before the trade deadline, but I think the restriction may be 3 months something like that
Thanks Howeda. Maybe that also explains why they hung onto Livan and Lamb so long last year as well.
I would’ve loved acquiring Washburn…as part of a larger deal. Clement, Beltre, or other Could, and honestly would have, had to been apart of the trade. We could’ve used the talent we got to trade for other talent we need. Maybe Willson Ramos doesn’t pan out. Even if he does, we trade him or Clement for young 3rd baseman or other that we need. Oh and two more things. Don’t trade Young. Just don’t.
Second, sign Abreau, Dunn, or Hudson. They’re going to make the Twins (or Anyone else) better.
Its unbelievable the Twins will not go after Cruz because they might lose a first round draft pick. Always build for the future but the future never comes.
Its so disheartening as a Twins fan to have such as incompetent GM as Bill Smith
Guerrier “wore down”????
He was terrible in April…very good in May, ok in June, and below average to horrible the rest of the way. Gave up 24 more runs and 16 more walks, nine less k’s than the previous year.
And they want to extend him multi years?
MN has plenty of guys who can come up and pitch that lousy.
They’re trying to save a few pieces of silver and gold, so save a bunch and dump Guerrier.
“MN has plenty of guys who can come up and pitch that lousy. They’re trying to save a few pieces of silver and gold, so save a bunch and dump Guerrier.”
Amen, brother.
=D
What is this craziness about a Washburn deal?
I have slso heard we need a veteran starting pitcher. What!
We have five veteran starters. Baker and Liriano are entering season number four. People should actually watch the team and get familiar with the players before commenting.
This staff of starters may be young, but they are all veterans. This staff has an opportunity to be the best in baseball from the first pitch forward.
I think the idea of signing Crede is something that needs to happen soon.
This team can win it all.
Joe,
what is really the issue with Crede? The guy is NOT a Batista/Lamb. the guy is exactly what the Twins need. all indications he is a good Club house guy. (Which I understand) is the MOST important thing with this organization? Our Club needs to get this deal done. The only problem I see is they sigh him for a one year and blows up for 35 HR and 130 RBI and walks after 2009. And we get to have this Conversation AGAIN!!
for the love of all that is Holy Bill! SIGN THE GUY NOW!!
Give up a first round draft pick for a RELIEVER with control issues?
I wonder which side of the “too big of a risk” coin Bill Smith is on. Hope he’s one that wants to do it.
what is really the issue with Crede?
The same issue that EVERY team had…his injury history.
Combined with the apparent news that he’s looking for $5 mil w/ incentives.
That’s comparred to a guy like Blake who’s been relatively healthy his whole career getting 7 mil, and a guy like Wiggy who’s younger (I think) and again healthy for most his career getting $3 mil.
why are we consdiering getting a veteran pitcher to start why did we not keep livan hernandez with 10 wins through july 31 st our fab five plus minor league depth why are we not spending on some money for a power hitter dh 3rd baseman and oh by the way management said the weakness is in the bullpen and power hitter why are we looking for a starter does not make sence thanks
leon joe crooks
I’m curious as to how big a risk they think a 1 year deal would be? A 3 or 4 year deal would be a risk but dont teams buy insurance policies on players to protect them from that?
Good Joe, you just calmed me down. Moving Delmon AT ALL would be a mistake. But for a terrible pitcher and a catcher that we can’t use would have been almost unbelievable.
I would take Washburn, just to have that veteran on the staff, that would give the Twins some options as far as trades and bullpen help goes. However, a PTBNL is about all I think he is worth. The guy is a salary dump for Seattle, anything they could get for him would be a plus move for their organization.
All of the previous threads are pointless and a complete waste of time. The Twins just cannot bring themselves to spend anything, players or money. It’s that banker mentality. Just keep reminding yourselfs that Bill Smith didn’t get the nickname “Dr No” for nothing.
Also, Crede will be healthy enough I think to give the Twins 100 starts or so. Plug the platoon in for the rest of them. He could also DH against lefthanders and let Harris get starts at 3rd. This signing makes so much sense it is unreal. Of course the Twins are trying to get him for nearly nothing and there really doesn’t seem to be too much interest anywhere else, but just give the guy 5 mil for one year and lets roll.
Good Heaven’s Joe, can this team make up it’s mind. I thought a leader (Smith) is suppose to be a person who takes charge and has direction. I do not see direction here!!! They should have pulled the Gagne trigger and sign Crede, even if he plays 100 games he shold have better numbers than Lamb. (But so would I) Plus they would not pony up any more money for Crede.
Glad they aren’t getting Washburn. Even more glad we still have the chance to have a community here with thread posting and reading.
The Twins just cannot bring themselves to spend anything, players or money.
The contract extensions for Cuddyer, Morneau, Nathan, and Kubel would beg to differ.
As well as the trade for Delmon Young, and the signing of Everett, Monroe, Hernandez, and Lamb.
Maybe you’re mistaking “doing nothing” for “doing nothing you like”.
I agree with you, Mike W. Yesterday’s rumor and the annoying comment page scrolling ruined my whole day. And, oh yeah, I like free agents and don’t mind giving up draft choices.
T,let me clarify my comment. I was referring to spending, or trading,for free agents that can help us. Not the Batistas of the baseball world. The jury is still out on Young trade.
Giving up a #1 for a 2-3 year contract is a bad idea. If it’s for longer, maybe it’s worth it. Of course, none of these FA pitchers are worth longer contracts.
I agree that Crede is a risk, and could fail spectacularly, but why not pay him 5 mil? If it’s a one year deal it’s still better than Lamb. It’s not like this one contract will break the bank.
There sure are a lot of people here willing to give up draft choices. Have the Twins really failed with their picks as badly as many claim? We can’t predict if the next pick is a Moses or a Mauer (although many here would insist it’s always a Moses) So let’s do an exercise: pretend Arizona gets to pick from a hat any of the last ten Twins first round picks. (I may have missed a couple). Hicks, Revere, Hunt, Gutierrez, Garza, Perkins, Plouffe, Moses, Span, and Mauer. Does that cause anyone to re-think signing a Type A player?
t will you tell us what smith has done since the trade deadline last july to improve this team?
Shaitan: The concern I have is that if the window really is “closing” as quickly as some believe, there’s no time to risk a year on Crede if there’s younger options available through other means.
I’d rather see them deal for Beltre (provided it doesn’t cost them Young) and extend his contract a few years.
bird there is a list of the last 10 yrs of picks above on here, it’s about a 50-50 chance of making it to the ml with how good they are when they make it up to your own way of thinking.
t will you tell us what smith has done since the trade deadline last july to improve this team?
Sure!
8/1 - DFA Livan Hernandez and Craig Monroe, called up Liriano and Ruiz.
8/6 - Released Monroe.
8/25 - Aquired Eddie Guardado. (Now I didn’t like this move, but I appeared to be in the minority at the time…of course hindsight for many is 20/20)
9/1 - Called up Mijares. (Who did rather well)
Jan 2009: Signed Jason Kubel to a two year deal with an option for a 3rd year. Thus locking up the first DH to hit 20 homers since…well…since I can’t remember.
T,
I noticed that you left the Punto re-signing off 
also he got Jason Jones in rule 5, R.A. Dickey as a free agent and a free minor league free agents of lesser note.
“Shaitan: The concern I have is that if the window really is “closing” as quickly as some believe, there’s no time to risk a year on Crede if there’s younger options available through other means.”
How is the window “closing” on a team that has only two starters over the age of 30? This is one of the youngest teams in MLB.
T:
You forgot signing Dickey to a minor league deal. A knuckler for 8th inning set-up…no pun intended!
Thanks Joe C for your quick response on Washburn and on the scrolling problems. Everyone can set aside the defib machines now, at least for a day or two.
Crede: Do they ever publically release medical records? Balky backs are risky, but 1 yr isnt so bad. THe only problem is releasing somebody else, namely Harris, to make room for Crede, and then Crede is DL’d for the season……roll the dice or not?
ggg, Matt Moses and Plouffe are the only players on that list that haven’t or don’t make the analyst’s Top Ten list of Twins prospects. 40% are already in the majors.
In my view, there is a better than 50% chance that signing Cruz to a two-year contract for big money, and giving up a choice, ends up being a dumb move.
Crede: Do they ever publically release medical records?
no
big no no (health information privacy act)
You don’t want your neighbor or your employer to know your medical history, do you?
rayreiner, good point about what happens with Buscher and Harris if Crede is signed. Buscher at AAA blocks Valencia and Hughes, doesn’t it? Does he get DFA’d?
birdofprey,
IMO, the guy blocking Hughes at (AAA) 3B is Hughes. He will have to show off-the-charts defensive improvement to be considered a 3B prospect.
Buscher could be a AAA 3B-1B-DH, while Valencia gets most of the starts at 3B.
I understand Hughes sucks defensively, sane. WHere are they going to play him?
I noticed that you left the Punto re-signing off
I didn’t even want to TRY and go there.
I was going to add Craig Breslow, but I didn’t realize that he was picked up prior to the deadline last year.
THe only problem is releasing somebody else, namely Harris, to make room for Crede, and then Crede is DL’d for the season……roll the dice or not?
They could send down Buscher (I think), and keep Harris (who has more flexibility in the positions he can play)
Failing that, they could deal Buscher. I’m sure he’d be worth SOMETHING in the right package.
bop,
I think the choices are 2B and LF.
If Hughes hits well enough to project as a MLB corner outfielder, I would guess LF.
Otherwise, he will need some defensive improvement to become an offense-first second baseman.
I have read that they haven’t given up on him as a 3B yet, but decision time is approaching.
Thank goodness on the Washburn business. I agree, signing Juan Cruz would be a good move. Two years at whatever the current market indicates and sacrifice the #1 pick. The pick is not that high and in baseball there seems to be much more of a “miss” factor than other sports.
Buscher’s fate is a minor problem, then. (Pun intended). It’s not like we’re taking AB’s away from future stars at AAA in the likes of Matt Macri, Alejandro Machado and Brock Peterson. There should still be room for Tolleson, Plouffe, Valencia, and Hughes in the AAA infield and everyday lineup.
I’m happy the Twins covet their draft choices.
Drew Butera could be moved off the 40 man roster to make room for Crede. No big loss if someone claims him.
As to where Buscher plays in AAA, who cares? “Left out” if necessary.
Is signing Crede really a bigger risk then signing some of the bottom feeders and slugs the Twins have signed as free agents over the last few years? I think not. Crede is a proven player and their is some injury risk, I agree, but the FA players they have signed in the past had injury risk and a lack of talent to boot.
They could also just release Buscher. He wouldn’t be much of a loss. Harris could play 3b if Crede (or other 3b) gets injured.
Valencia is our 3B prospect. Hughes is a prospect, he can hit but has no position. 2B most likely the way it sounds.
Crede on a one year deal just makes sense. Get it done Billy.
t forgive me if i’m uninspired at cutting bad signings, bringing up minor leagures and resigning our own players as big help improving the team. oh i forgot jones and dickey they should make us a world series contender. i stand corrected!
gook: You should be more specific next time. Perhaps asking “What has been added since the deadline to help this team?”
Or perhaps, “Who has been brought in from outside the organization to help this team?”
The mid-term grade isn’t good for Billy Smith, but it’s too early to flunk him out of school. Give him a chance to recover.
“the Washburn ship has sailed.”
Where is the Submarine Force when you need it?
Also, there’s PLENTY of room for honest differences regarding his current grade.
One thing about Hughes: he had only half a season in the minors (his stint with the Rock Cats earlier last season) where he had OPS higher than .800. One Half-season.
As far as other infield prospects and OPS over .800 goes: Macri had 3 full seasons, Valencia had one full season and 3 half-seasons, Tolleson and Dinkelman had 2 half-seasons each, Singleton and Machado one full season and 2 half-seasons each, Romero one full and one half, and Plouffe none.
I have seen analysis that draft picks can be valued at about $5 million.
Would a two year Ben Sheets rental be worth $5 million to the Twins?
I would argue yes. They have a team that is a marginal playoff contender (85-86 wins), and Sheets could add up to 2-3 wins on their current projection, putting them near to 90 wins. Making the playoffs is worth millions to the team; cash payment to playoff teams, added ticket revenues, plus added season tickets.
Who had the numbers on how much money the playoff teams netted?
AM,
depends on the draft pick… The Twins have pick #23 next draft. That is valued less that the top 5 picks and it is close to the sandwich pick they will receiver from losing Reyes. They got to do it, but they also got to add a bat
On second thought, maybe the Twins SHOULD trade Young to Seattle….
As long as they get Ichiro in return!
I looks like they could get Sheets and Crede for $13million. Huge upgrade for the team, probably makes them the favorite the win the Central, and their payroll would be $70 million–less than it was 2 years ago.
Good point on the sandwich pick for Reyes, thrylos. The way the Twins draft (avoiding big bonus babies), there is a good chance they could get the same guy in the sandwich round that they would get at #23. (For example, Revere and Gutierrez were both expected to be draft much later.)
thrylos: Isn’t that why the Twins appear to be trying to get one of the two gaps filled via trade while signing the other? To avoid giving up TWO picks?
Well if they dont sign Crede here’s hoping Valencia is this years version of Denard Span and comes out of the gates swinging.
A key point to consider: What chance does a player coming off a back injury have of staying healthy while playing on FieldTurf?
I won’t claim to have any insight whatsoever into Crede’s ability/chances to get/stay healthy in 2009, but there are reputable studies out there indicating field turf is not likely to contribute to injury. Here’s one that concludes “there is no reason to suggest
that new synthetic turf fields raise an athletes risk for injury.”
http://www.bhsfieldofdreams.org/pdf/TurfFieldResearch.pdf
Clearly back injuries are tricky, and like I said I don’t know how field turf might affect Crede in particular. However, I also think it might be going to far to assume that somehow playing in the Metrodome will decrease his playing time in 2009.
thrylos,
Was Hughes OPS at New Britain (.936) 100 points higher than his FPA at 3B?
I am guessing that doesn’t happen very often.
have the twins ever signed a free agent that cost them a draft pick?
Thrylos, what was Hughes’ OPS at AAA last year? Wasn’t it pretty close to .800? How about Macri?
When will the Twins be forced to re-sign Dennys Reyes?
bop,
Sorry!
11:00 AM post was mine.
The usual SNAFU.
btw, for the critics of the Twins FO:
“The Twins have hired Larry DiVito to be head groundskeeper at Target Field, the team announced today”
At no cost in players or draft picks!
IN YOUR FACE!
Did Larry DiVito play Louie DePalma on “Taxi”?
I dont think playing on turf is as hard on the back as swinging the bat or making diving catches might be. I threw my back out playing softball by just diving for a lose ball.
I looks like they could get Sheets and Crede for $13million. Huge upgrade for the team, probably makes them the favorite the win the Central, and their payroll would be $70 million–less than it was 2 years ago.
Add Cruz (giving up another pick), and the payroll probably comes in under $75M. $2M more than 2 years ago, with probably nothing more than a 2 year commitment to any of those players (Crede 1 yr plus option, Sheets/Cruz 2 years?). And don’t forget they banked somewhere in the neighborhood of $15M last year and have the new stadium opening in 2010.
I, for one, would then stop bitching about the front office not adding any talent.
Isn’t that why the Twins appear to be trying to get one of the two gaps filled via trade while signing the other? To avoid giving up TWO picks?
The sandwich pick they will get for Reyes cannot be taken away. If they sign 2 A free agents they will lose their first and second round picks. That said, there are some non A free agents (think Pedro Martinez/Brandon Looper/Chad Cordero ) who do not require them giving a pick (for Type B’s the compensatory pick comes from the league not from the singing team). They almost have to upgrade 3B (now) via a trade because there is nothing (but CreDL) left…
My bad!
The 11 AM post was birdofprey.
Mine was at 10:59AM.
Apparently I am the SNAFU.
Was Hughes OPS at New Britain (.936) 100 points higher than his FPA at 3B?
Close but no cigar (his FP was .888)
I am guessing that doesn’t happen very often.
It happens if the OPS is really high. In 2005 Ruiz had an OPS of 1.074 and FP of .972 in 1B; ‘95 Arod OPS 1.063 FP .961. Also Kubel in New Britain in 2004 1.119 OPS, .961 FP. I am sure that Bonds had higher 100+ points higher OSP than FP for his last 6-7 years, but it is hard to happen with OPS less than 1.000
Thrylos, what was Hughes’ OPS at AAA last year? Wasn’t it pretty close to .800?
.778
How about Macri?
.789
Why not give Crede 5 million? Isn’t that what Livan got last year?
Wouldn’t Crede being playing on the dirt 99% of the time? Is the dirt different on fields with fieldturf?
TimB, the problem doesn’t really lie in the FieldTurf or Dirt, it is the concrete underneath.
The actual playing surface is only an inch or so thick and under that is concrete. So there isn’t much cushion to absorb impact and it all gets absorbed in your back.
I’m a White Sox fan (ducks) who thinks that whoever gets Crede is getting a high ceiling player with injury risks. At his best he’s a .280/30/120 guy with a gold glove caliber glove (save last year, you could argue he was robbed in previous seasons of that award). Besides the batting a healthy Crede brings, he is going to save at minimum 30-40 runs a year with his glove. That doesn’t show up on the stat sheet, but I know it will be appreciated…especially in Minnesota.
His history with back injuries is a big red flag, but taking a flyer at a 2 year contract might be worth it…at the very least you’ll be sticking it to Sox fans like me who enjoyed watching Crede’s development from underachieving to tremendous clutch player over the years.
“Sox fans like me who enjoyed watching Crede’s development from underachieving to tremendous clutch player over the years.”
Thanks, Dan.
“tremendous clutch player” sells me!
As for those in the organization who do not want to take a chance on Crede, “Fire them”. The money saved can be better spent in signing Crede.
When will the Twins be forced to re-sign Dennys Reyes?
Isn’t Breslow a cheaper version of Reyes? (Who also proved to be more reliable?)
It looks like Delmon is with us a little longer! YES! Give him a chance!
Crede will be fine. Dome is the same as anywhere else. He will get rest with Harris or Buscher getting some PT also.
Sign him Billy.
I also think we should take a shot on Crede. We should structure a deal that will give him considerable upside if he performs (ie. doesn’t get hurt) and give us a buyout if he gets injured or under performs.
Bill Smith, The Man of a Thousand Excuses. Once again the Twins will be one or two players short and all we’ll hear from the front office will be platitudes and little else.
