StarTribune.com

Thursday update: Same old, same old

Posted on February 5th, 2009 – 12:07 PM
By Joe Christensen

A simple post about the Twins’ new groundskeeper hire led to some pretty hilarious comments. You guys were on fire.

Wish I had something new to report today, but there just isn’t any news.

In speaking with Twins officials this week, they seem about 90 percent certain there won’t be any notable changes to the roster before spring training. Obviously, we’ll let you know if that changes.

The Twins are convinced it’s better to do nothing than to do something silly, just for the sake of making a move. They insist other teams have been asking for too much in trades.

They’re convinced their internal bullpen options (Jesse Crain, Jose Mijares, Matt Guerrier, Boof Bonser, etc.) are just as likely to pan out as late-inning setup guys as the remaining free agents.

I’d say the best chance of a move would be a Joe Crede signing, but I keep hearing he’s at 75 percent, and the Twins don’t want to shell out $5 million in guaranteed money (plus incentives) unless they know he’s healthy.

If they can get the asking price down in guaranteed money, or if Crede would get closer to 90-95 percent, they might have a match. If not, they’ll move forward with their third base platoon of Brendan Harris and Brian Buscher.

216 Responses to "Thursday update: Same old, same old"

JayTEE says:

February 5th, 2009 at 12:12 pm

Thanks Joe.

sane says:

February 5th, 2009 at 12:15 pm

Thanks, Joe.
At least now, we will not waste any energy in anticipation of imminent moves.

Ben W says:

February 5th, 2009 at 12:17 pm

I don’t think Crede and Boras are in a position to demand 5 million.

SoCal Twins Fan says:

February 5th, 2009 at 12:22 pm

demand yes, expect no…

Funkytown says:

February 5th, 2009 at 12:22 pm

The Rip van Winkle offseason continues. I guess they’ll wake up in just over a week and be ready for a 3rd place finish.
Standing pat is for l-o-s-e-r-s

jkucenic says:

February 5th, 2009 at 12:24 pm

Unreal. It has to be rare that a team does nothing to address the primary reason they fail to make the postseason when coming so close (that being the bullpen).

I mean, it’s fascinating.

Anywhoo, I hope Crede has liberal politics because he will rubbing elbows with the San Fran crowd next season. Book it.

What a joke.

BC of ND says:

February 5th, 2009 at 12:25 pm

Joe cant you just make up a rumor like the reporter in Seattle did?

So when does the WBC start does anyone know? I need a baseball fix.

sid says:

February 5th, 2009 at 12:29 pm

“We gotta team and a real big team, well ooh-hoo, well ah-ha!”

bisonaudit says:

February 5th, 2009 at 12:29 pm

I don’t think the bullpen is the primary problem.

I’d put defense and lack of run production ahead of the bullpen on my list of concerns.

Contrary to popular belief, we’re not very good in the field. DY’s a disaster, 3B is anyone’s guess, and you could drive a bus through the right side of the infield.

Also there’s zero chance the Twins hit .300 with RISP as they did in 2008.

jkucenic says:

February 5th, 2009 at 12:32 pm

Joe C:

Have Twins officials come out and flat out told you that they are just not that interested in the ‘09 season, and instead, are completely focused on everything going on in 2010?

Because it sure seems like it.

KB says:

February 5th, 2009 at 12:32 pm

I’m really disappointed to hear about the Crede issue. I really think that he would have been a good investment. I agree with the thought of not doing something just to do something.

I know most people will go with the “Bill Smith is lazy, stupid, fat or just out to get the fans because he hates them” comments. I don’t agree with those.

Well, let see what happens with what we’ve got. Can’t wait for opening day, I have more optimism this year than I did last year at this time!

Jesse says:

February 5th, 2009 at 12:37 pm

The top 10 paid 3rd basemen in the league mostly have multi year contracts and make over 10 mill a year:

Alex Rodriguez, $27,500,000 (2008-17)
Miguel Cabrera, $19,037,500 (2008-15)
Aramis Ramirez, $15,000,000 (2007-11)
Adrian Beltre, $12,800,000 (2005-09)
Mike Lowell, $12,500,000 (2008-10)
Chipper Jones, $12,333,333 (2006-08)
Troy Glaus, $11,500,000 (2005-08)
Scott Rolen, $11,500,000 (2003-10)
Eric Chavez, $11,000,000 (2005-10)
David Wright, $9,166,667 (2007-12)

In my opinion a healthy Joe Crede is in that group so a 1 year contract at half the value of the lowest guy (David Wright) is more then fair. I would also point out that the Twins only have $57 million in salary commitments this year and could easily afford $5 million:

Role Player Status Salary ($M)
C Mauer Contract $10.500
1B Morneau Contract $10.600
2B Casilla Serfdom $0.425
3B Buscher Serfdom $0.425
SS Punto Contrct $4.000
RF Cuddyer Contract $6.750
CF Span Serfdom $0.425
LF Young Serfdom $0.750
DH Kubel Arbitration $2.500

STARTER 1 Liriano Serfdom $0.425
STARTER 2 Blackburn Serfdom $0.425
STARTER 3 Baker Serfdom $0.425
STARTER 4 Perkins Serfdom $0.425
STARTER 5 Slowey Serfdom $0.425

BKUP MI Harris Serfdom $0.425
BKUP CI Tolbert Serfdom $0.425
4TH OF Gomez Contract $0.425
BKUP C Redmond Contract $0.950

CLOSER Nathan Contract $11.250
RH SETUP Humber Serfdom $0.425
LH SETUP Breslow Serfdom $0.425
MR Mijares Serfdom $0.425
MR Crain Contract $1.700
LONG MR Bonser Serfdom $0.425
LONG MR Guerrier Arbitration $1.500

CARRYOVER Lamb Contract $3.000

TOTAL SALARY $56.875

jdm says:

February 5th, 2009 at 12:40 pm

Some people need to give the Twins a break. Ninety losses? Come on. A few points:

* Not paying $5 million to a guy with a bad injury history who is only 75 percent is just prudent. Would you spend that? I wouldn’t. I’d hold out, and in this market that’s the wisest way to go.

* Crede is one of the few third basemen on the market who would have been legitimately better than a Buscher-Harris platoon. There were legitimate arguments against spending much money on players like Casey Blake and Ty “Allergic to Leather” Wiggington (though I’m annoyed that they didn’t do more to get DeRosa from the Cubs).

* The Twins should get some credit for developing their own bullpen arms. Perhaps they would be better off going out to get someone, but they have a good track record developing their own arms. They have plenty of guys with the potential to step into that 8th-inning role.

Would I like to see them go out and get a masher at third? Sure. I’d even like to see them go out and get Juan Cruz. But this is hardly the end of the world, as some people put it, and the Twins’ institutional cautiousness has served the team, and its fans, quite well over the past decade. And in case you haven’t heard, they’re hardly the only team being cautious right now. (*cough cough* WHITESOX *cough cough*)

the Dragon says:

February 5th, 2009 at 12:41 pm

Sign Crede. $5 mil for 30 games or so is a bargain.

Regards,

thrylos98 says:

February 5th, 2009 at 12:43 pm

jesse,
I think that the point is not whether or not the Twins can afford players to improve SP and 3B (they do to the rate of taking on an extra $20M), the point is whether they are willing to do that…

jkucenic says:

February 5th, 2009 at 12:43 pm

Are you Nostradamus the Dragon?? How do you know how many games Crede would play?

Can you predict how many throwing errors Buscher will have this year??

bisonaudit says:

February 5th, 2009 at 12:49 pm

Chicago can afford to stand pat they were actaully decent last year instead of lucky.

the Dragon says:

February 5th, 2009 at 12:49 pm

jkucenic,

I just picked a number out of the air. It’s as good as any other.

If Vegas had the over/under at between 50-80 games, I’d invest in the under. The closer to 80 the larger the investment.

Regards, :-)

Kimdana says:

February 5th, 2009 at 12:49 pm

If there are no other bullpen options available that are better then what they have now, why wasn’t he active when there were still good ones available?

BC of ND says:

February 5th, 2009 at 12:50 pm

The Twins just like any other team have a short term and long term plan. The problem most fans have is they cant see the long term plan. Jesse’s point is valid in terms of Crede’s worth but the Twins also look at who they have coming up and when they’ll be ready. I think Buscher/Harris is a short term fix and by opening day 2010 they will have a better 3B then Crede.

Glanzer says:

February 5th, 2009 at 12:50 pm

I must be the only one who thinks that making a silly move just for the sake of making a move is a good idea. Get one new face in there to give me something to think about during spring training!

MudCat says:

February 5th, 2009 at 12:54 pm

That’s not a bad idea, Glanzer. It’s not my money anyway. But I like Dragon’s thinking. Joe Crede at 75 percent doesn’t sound good. Seventy five percent of his career averages is 10 homers and 35 RBI’s with about a .200 batting average. That’s pretty close to his 2007 numbers (and Mike Lamb numbers).

thrylos98 says:

February 5th, 2009 at 12:54 pm

This looks like a second place team at this point. The only things that will make this team win the division are:

* if one of Buscher/Crain is lights out in the spring and establishes himself as the RH setup guy
* if Mijares is lights out as the LH set up guy
* if the SP progress in leaps and bounds and Perkins learns a third pitch that actually is effective
* if Caddaver is resurrected and puts 2006 numbers
* if Span/Mauer/Morneau do not digress, Young/Gomez/Casilla improve
* if someone like Valencia or Tolleson has a hell of a spring and gets the starting 3B job pushing Buscher in AAA

Lots of ifs.

But since 85% of the fans thought that last year was a success no matter the second place finish in a season when the Twins could have won, and 80% of those would not mind another second place finish as long as the team is “competitive” and “plays the right way”, why bother improve and go to win it all?

bisonaudit says:

February 5th, 2009 at 12:54 pm

BC of ND:

I can see the headline now “Twins ink Beltre for $100 million” ;)

thrylos98 says:

February 5th, 2009 at 12:55 pm

make that Bonser/Crain not Buscher/Crain

gobbledygookguy says:

February 5th, 2009 at 12:55 pm

last year they cut about 20m off the 07 payroll, competed and had good attendance. from a business point of view a success. there doesn’t seem to be any incentive for them to spend up to the 07 level, people will still buy tickets and they feel the team will be competitive. remember this team is run like a business, winning is not their main concern making a profit is. get thru this year new stadium they can skate for 3-4 years on newness weather they field a good team or not.
bottom line is make a profit (the bigger the better) first, win second as a happy by-product.

bisonaudit says:

February 5th, 2009 at 12:58 pm

If they’re not competitive there’s NO way the stadium honeymoon lasts 3 or 4 years.

jhawk90 says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:00 pm

huh. So we got a 10% chance of a notable change.

If Crede is at 75%, then there’s 0% chance that the Twins will sign him, leaving the original 10% untouched. I’m dividing that between 2% Beltre, 1% Garciaparra, 4% Donnelly, 2% Foulke and 1% Mulder.

If Crede is at 90-95%, then it’s 4% Crede, 0.5% Beltre, 3.5% Donnelly, 1.5% Foulke and 0.5% Mulder.

SethSpeaks says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:00 pm

“This looks like a second place team at this point. ”

Does Cleveland or Chicago or Detroit look like a 1st place team, or even a 2nd place team?

JimCrikket says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:01 pm

I’ve been as anxious for an upgrade as anyone (and even went on a bit of a rant about the lack of interestin Wigginton when the Astros released him). But at this point, I can certainly see the logic in moving forward with the current roster.

If the Twins really feel Crede is just 75% of his old self, signing him would just be repeating the mistakes made the last few years with numerous other “veterans” who turned out to be shells of what they had been in the past. It’s actually a bit encouraging that they aren’t leaping to do the same thing again. On the other hand, the “75%” thing could just be a negotiating ploy, too.

Unless the Twins decided to make a play for someone like Sheets (which is highly unlikely), I don’t see anyone on the FA pile that would be a clear and obvious improvement over what’s on the roster right now. Crede would be an upgrade if he’s healthy and Cruz would be a possibility, I suppose, but I would never, ever, give up a 1st round draft pick for a middle relief pitcher.

That being the case, I can see the logic in holding back the payroll space so they can afford to take on some salary once they get in to the season and see where the biggest needs turn out to be. Seems like every year, by mid season you find out that what you thought were weaknesses turn out to be just fine and what you thought were strengths turn out to be problem areas.

gobbledygookguy says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:02 pm

but even when not competitive they get after it and battle their tails off so most fans are happy its just those whining bloggers that get mad.

mike wants wins says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:03 pm

And the money just keeps rolling into their pockets, even after we raise our taxes to build them a money printing machine…..

Why would anyone think that NEXT YEAR they’ll go out and get someone for 3B if they didn’t this year.

As I said two weeks ago, here is what Joe and LaVelle could write:

“And today’s Twins news is “.

Then they could have just taken a month off….

BC of ND says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:03 pm

“Does Cleveland or Chicago or Detroit look like a 1st place team, or even a 2nd place team?”

Come on Seth you know these guys think the Twins should be built to beat the Yankees/RedSox not teams in their own division. Winning the division isn’t good enough.

ryan says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:04 pm

wow no big suprise here bill smith u suck and i cant even belive you call yourself a gm.if it would of been anyother team in mlb you would have no job after all of your lies and excuses.joe c when you go to the twins front office and talk to this idiot in person how bad do you just want to slap his fat face?

thrylos98 says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:04 pm

jhawk90,

the 10% chance is that R.A. Dickey or Jason Jones or someone else not currently on the 25-man roster (Tolleson/Valencia/Pridie/Martin/Machado/whomever) win a job with the big club this spring…

mike wants wins says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:05 pm

When did they last take on serious salary once the season started? When? Why would you think that will happen?

Apprently Sheets failed his physical in TX, and KLAW is reporting that he told friends he’d need surgery this year.

thrylos98 says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:06 pm

Does Cleveland or Chicago or Detroit look like a 1st place team, or even a 2nd place team?

Cleveland surely does look like a 1st place team at this point.

jhawk90 says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:06 pm

“The Twins just like any other team have a short term and long term plan. The problem most fans have is they cant see the long term plan.”

I think most fans can see it, but the ownership/front office have serious credibility issues with having a clue about the short term when you can’t adapt to an obvious opportunity (see: late 2008 season). It wouldn’t have taken much.

Fire Gardy » Slow News Day Updates says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:09 pm

[…] a post that’s sure to angry up the blood of many fans, JoeC points out the Twins’ plans for the rest of the offseason. In speaking with Twins officials this week, they seem about 90 percent certain there won’t be […]

T says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:10 pm

Are you Nostradamus the Dragon?? How do you know how many games Crede would play?

Because he booked it.

jkucenic says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:12 pm

I agree with thrylos98…Cleveland resembles a first place team at this point.

Solid, upside acquisitions with Wood, DeRosa, and Smith. Probably the best bullpen in the division. Carmona coming back healthier (similar to Liriano), decent young pitching in place (remember those “no-name” dudes that shut the Twins down last year?) Martinez and Hafner coming back healthy (who knows if they can stay that way though), and already a decent nucleus in place.

Yup…

JimCrikket says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:12 pm

mww, I would argue that most seasons, they go in to the year at or near what they feel is their maximum payroll. Last season was the first in what seems like forever when that was not the case. There have been several reports that the Twins were willing to take on significant additional salary in the form of Beltre and/or Washburn from the Ms… but it was Seattle that wouldn’t pull the trigger because they also wanted more than the Twins would give in trade.

Having a few bucks available to spend when you need it sure beats the heck out of being faced with the need to dump salary at mid-season.

JustinCB says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:13 pm

wow…. sure do wish I was on a career path where .425 M/yr was considered “surfdom.”

sane says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:15 pm

The Twins are going with my plan:

1) Evaluate the in-house talent during Spring Traing and EARLY regular season.

2)Determine EXACTLY where the REAL deficiencies are.

3) Fix the REAL deficiencies.

If you believe this blog, the Twins only need to fix ONE THING:
1) Bullpen?
2) Defense?
3) Starting pitching?
4) Third base?
5) Shortstop?
6) Manager?
7) Front Office?

FIRST diagnose the disease, THEN take the correct medication!

SethSpeaks says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:15 pm

“wow…. sure do wish I was on a career path where .425 M/yr was considered “surfdom.””

AGREED!!!

mike wants wins says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:15 pm

they have more than $20MM to spend, by their own math. That’s a 40% increase (give or take a few points) on top of what they’ve already spent. FORTY percent. Not gonna happen. Unless they spend that on Mauer (meaning they’ll be too cheap to extend Baker, slowey and Liriano), how could they possibly spend that much money over the next few years when they refuse to add players in or approaching their prime earing years?

gobbledygookguy says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:15 pm

no wonder sheets hadn’t signed that sucks for him.
problem is we are nearly always on the longterm plan and in a few years mauer, morneau and nathan will be gone and it will be a new long term plan. if i remember santana made a comment about always looking to the future.
lets see if we can be good enough to win the division, it cost to much to be good enough to win the world series so don’t even try.
sorry i’m being a whining blogger again.

JimCrikket says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:16 pm

I agree on Cleveland being the best pick for 1st place going in to the season for pretty much the reasons jku pointed out. That said, they aren’t as much of an obvious pick as Detroit was last year and we know how that worked out.

mike wants wins says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:16 pm

Santana and Hunter both said that, and look, they are no longer on the team……

thrylos98 says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:17 pm

Having a few bucks available to spend when you need it sure beats the heck out of being faced with the need to dump salary at mid-season.

I think that if you do not spend some bucks in the beginning of the season to proactively a. fill some glaring holes (3B, RH power bat) and b. make changes to address other shortcomings (e.g. home vs. road pitching splits), unless things really bounce your way it is almost guaranteed that you will be dumping salary in July… (on the other hand the only dumpable contracts the Twins have are those of Nathan, Cuddyer, maybe Crain, Guerrier, Morneau and Kubel)

Iconoclast says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:18 pm

People shouldn’t be upset about the Twins not making any moves. Don’t forget - this was almost a playoff team last year! They won 88 games, and with a little math, I predict the Twins could win 120 games this year:

More experience for Blackburn, Perkins and Slowey = plus 5 wins
No Livan Hernandez = plus 4 wins
Adam Everett = plus 3 wins
those wins will come against Detroit, who for some reason signed Everett)
No Mike Lamb = plus 2 wins
Liriano won’t repeat his crazy April = plus 3 wins

That comes out to 103 wins. Plus, I have inside information that Joe Mauer’s “kidney” surgery was really a top secret procedure to install robotic arms and legs. His new titanium arms will provide the power boost that we’ve been waiting for and add another 17 wins to the total.

You can’t argue with my math.

thrylos98 says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:18 pm

JC,

Detroit has serious flaws coming into last years season (which are actually magnified this season)

mike wants wins says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:19 pm

As much as the White Sox have regressed, their best hitter is healthy again, and probably won’t miss the last month of the year. For all of us saying how close the Twins were, how far back would they have been at the end had the Sox best hitter not missed all/most of the last month of the year?

Heinie Manush says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:19 pm

Trade offers asking for too much? Based on what I’ve read (Washburn, Atkins) I’d have to agree.

Internal BP options as good as what is out there? OK but there were some options that they let pass.

Third base? I dunno, if Blake was thought to be an upgrade, how did 3M in 2011 stand in the way? Worst case is we eat the $ and can’t afford 2011’s version of Lamb/Everett/Monroe. More likely, we’ve got an overpaid, but useful, utility guy.

Here’s my wish/hope: Washburn and Beltre from Seattle. We eat the lion’s share of their contracts and the ransom Beltre will demand for his no trade. We get a legitimate upgrade at 3B, a #4/#5 starter and are placed in a position to make a legitimate run for it this year.

Seattle gets significant salary relief, Bonsor or Humber and one of Delmon, Perkins or Blackburn.

This satisfies the urge to roll the dice for today when we’re close without giving up too much in the future. It’s hard to imagine another time when the twins will have this year’s salary flexibility. Let’s make something of it.

sane says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:20 pm

You dump salary when you find out your in-house talent is better than your off-season fixes.
Lamb, Everett, Monroe, Rincon and Livan.

thrylos98 says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:21 pm

FIRST diagnose the disease, THEN take the correct medication!

so you think that they need to see Buscher in the bigs for another month or so to determine whether he can field or slug or hit LHP?

JimCrikket says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:21 pm

mww, I think that’s a pretty BIG “unless”. I think it’s pretty obvious that they need to make sure they have room to pay Mauer and at least some of the others that are in for big pay increases not far down the road. I don’t know if they’ll get it done by the end of Spring Training, but I’ll be shocked (and disappointed) if they don’t extend Mauer before the end of this season. If they learned nothing else from the Santana fiasco, it’s that you do not wait until the off-season before a superstar’s final contract year to negotiate an extension. By then, most of them would be willing to play out the walk-away year and hit the market unless you can make a trade-and-sign deal and there won’t be any more teams able to afford the bidding for Mauer than there were for Santana.

DaveB says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:22 pm

How many games did the bullpen blow?
By the end of the season, the bullpen was in total collapse.
And Smith does not see a need to upgrade?

Bill Smith as a GM is beyond belief.

thrylos98 says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:23 pm

sane,
Lamb, Everett, Monroe, Rincon and Livan was not dumping salary, it was eating salary. Casilla in 2007 was dumping salary

sane says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:23 pm

“you think that they need to see Buscher in the bigs for another month or so to determine whether he can field or slug or hit LHP?”

Harris plays everyday 3B and the problem MAY disappear.

mike wants wins says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:24 pm

Let’s play the game, then.

They sign Mauer - what, $22-25MM per year, right? That’s an increas of how much?

If slowey, baker and Liriano are all as good as you think they’ll be, will they lock up three more players after signing one guy?

If so, how much money will they be willing to add from outside the organization then? After increasing the payroll by $20MM just to sign those four, do you really think they’ll then go out and acquire another player in his prime earning years or approaching them?

thrylos98 says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:25 pm

Harris plays everyday 3B and the problem MAY disappear.

Sure, but it is not happening with Gardy as the manager. I am willing to bet that if both of them are in the team Buscher will get more time (innings) at 3B than Harris.

Any takers?

Walter Johnson says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:26 pm

Joe,

Never thought I’d be so happy to see a new post entitled “same old, same old”.

Pete D says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:28 pm

“Probably the best bullpen in the division.”

I think Cleveland is a good team, sure, but this statement kind of caught my eye.

Last year’s numbers for the bullpens -

Cleveland - 445 1/3 IP, 5.13 ERA, 1.55 WHIP

Minnesota - 500 IP, 3.91 ERA, 1.43 WHIP

Chicago - 459 1/3 IP, 4.13 ERA, 1.46 WHIP

Kansas City - 496 IP, 4.26 ERA, 1.39 WHIP

Detroit - 512 2/3 IP, 4.69 ERA, 1.71 WHIP

Yes, Wood and Smith will help, but the Indians pen was pretty bad last year - better than only the Tigers.

jkucenic says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:28 pm

thrylos…not to agree with you again….but, dare I help you “book that?”

Direct evidence was second half of last year when Harris was in that proverbial dog house for whatever reason.

Behind the scene issue?

Walter Johnson says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:28 pm

t98,

Harris will probably play some games at SS for an injured Punto ensuring more time for Buscher at 3B.

BC of ND says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:28 pm

I dont think the Indians are a btter team then the Twins right now. They lost both Blake and Sabathia but added DeRosa and Wood? Come on you cant be serious the Twins have improved more by not doing anything.

sane says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:28 pm

thrylos,
If Buscher out-performs Harris, then no deal.

If Harris outperforms Buscher significantly, you are on!

mike wants wins says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:29 pm

I think Valencia (unlikely) random guy or Hughes will be the 3B by the middle of the year, Buscher will be back in the minors and we’ll all wonder what happened to Harris (who will hit when allowed to play, but won’t be allowed to play).

thrylos98 says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:30 pm

Pete D,

agreed about the Cleveland bullpen. Now based on those numbers you posted, who had the best bullpen in the division, and why change it?

JimCrikket says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:30 pm

“After increasing the payroll by $20MM just to sign those four, do you really think they’ll then go out and acquire another player in his prime earning years or approaching them?”

No. But what they MAY be willing to do is take on a half-season’s salary for a
“rental” to make a serious run.

All I’m saying is that a good chunck of that $20mm you’re talking about should be used for Mauer and perhaps one or two pitchers. I’d be fine with leaving $5-10mm unallocated going in to the season. If you’re out of contention and don’t need it… ok. But if you’re at or near the top, it would be nice to at least have options.

jkucenic says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:31 pm

Yes, but last year, keep in mind, they had Joe “excuse my 83 mph fastball” Borowski trying to close games.

His awfulness, combined with various injuries helped produce those numbers you laid out.

They had to overextend guys like Betancourt and Perez, similar to Crain and Guerrier for the Twins.

The difference, however, is that they went out a got a couple of options to help the core, which has been effective in the past.

mike wants wins says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:33 pm

I’d love it if they traded prospects for a rental to make a serious run, but they seemed unwilling/unable to do that last year. If not last year, when they were $20MM under budget, when?

And if the answer is “everyone asked for too much in return” why would that be different in the future?

DT says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:33 pm

For all of us saying how close the Twins were, how far back would they have been at the end had the Sox best hitter not missed all/most of the last month of the year?

Wasn’t the Twins best hitter missing for most of the last month of the year?

I mean, he was in the lineup…but was he actually IN the lineup?

T says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:35 pm

Oh for chrisakes…that post at 1:33 from “DT” is supposed to be under my name.

Anyway. Wondering why nobody’s taking a shot at Sheets?

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/02/ben-sheets-may.html

thrylos98 says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:36 pm

JC,

there are other factors about that “$20M”

a. if there were an excess of $20 M last year, there will be an excess of $30 M in 2010 with the new stadium

b. Cuddyer’s ($8.5 M) and Nathan’s ($11.25 M) salaries will go off the books after 2010 and 2011, respectively allowing more flexibility to pay Mauer (these 2 will make $20M in 2010…)

JimCrikket says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:36 pm

“And if the answer is “everyone asked for too much in return” why would that be different in the future?”

Overly simplistic response, I grant, but I’d say something as simple as the fact that Seattle is under new operational management could make it different in the future. Seattle’s GM was just being a total idiot.

sane says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:36 pm

My original premise is that the FO (and this blog) have no unanimity regarding which of the three holes need to be filled first.

If Harris-Buscher defy the “experts” and perform (ala Span), we should have targeted BP help.

Or Crain, Guerrier, Bonser perform, we should have targeted 3B.

And if whomever the fix, is outperformed by in-house talent, we will have another contract to EAT. (think Lamb, Everett, Rincon, Livan and Monroe)

amtrekman says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:38 pm

Although it’s frustrating to those of us who are restless for an “apparent” upgrade, perhaps we should be glad the Twins are showing confidence in those people already in the system. They have, after all, done a pretty good job of bringing along pitchers from within. As for an “upgrade,” look at how many of us believed the signing of Mike Lamb would be a positive move to solve the third base situation, or a few years ago when we picked up Bret Boone during the season …. If I my memory holds true, I recall that Dan Gladden was a late-spring training trade with the Giants in 1987, and look how well that panned. Society today lacks patience (yes, including me at times). Let’s see where it goes. And, thanks, Joe, for the update that says little, to calm the masses. Hey, this could have been a “Seinfeld” episode!

bisonaudit says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:39 pm

I think $425K is boardering on surfdom if your going to be washed up at 35 if not sooner and only have a high school education to fall back on.

thrylos98 says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:41 pm

sane,

there is one thing to come up from the minors in a year after you had corrective eye surgery and continue hitting the ball the way you hit all season at AAA and at 28 years old become an adequate defensive third baseman if you sucked your whole career. Do you seriously think that Buscher (or Hughes) will be ever adequate in third?

Lee says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:42 pm

We will lose 90 games this year…

gobbledygookguy says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:43 pm

from aug 1 on the twins were 27-27 the indians were 34-20. after cc left and the injured players started to get healthy they were a better team than the twins down the stretch.

sane says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:44 pm

Harris, yes.
Hughes, definitely no.
Buscher, probably no.

the Dragon says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:44 pm

sane,

From your professional experience, IF you have a team of mostly sophmores with a couple of stud juniors which preform very well one year, would you generally expect the team to perform even better the following year?

Regards,

bisonaudit says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:44 pm

I tend to agree with you Lee, but this time last year I was saying the same thing about 2008.

rayreiner says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:45 pm

Whether they win 90 games or less, we can be absolutely certain that the Twins are making bundles of cash this year. A little savings in the bank for all the elite players they will keep, or sign, once they are in the new stadium. Looks like the FO decided ‘09 will be like ‘08…..if they win, great; if not, it’s no big deal, because the franchise is profitable, and about to become more so next year. So, from the Twins’ point of view, it’s a win/win season, regardless of whether the team wins 90 or loses 90.

JimCrikket says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:45 pm

thrylos, we could play “predict the payroll in 2012″ for a week and never come close to predicting who’s going to be paid what by then. Care to predict what Doc will be commanding by the time his deal needs to get extended? Given the economy at the moment, I don’t even want to think about what I’LL be trying to live on by 2012!

My point is simply that, while I would certainly have liked to get Blake, Wigginton, DeRosa, or Crede (if healthy) and one of any number of RPs and I believe greater efforts should have gone in to doing so, speaking strictly about what can and should be done at this time, I’d rather hang on to a few bucks and be able to overspend a bit for help when we know with more certainty where it’s going to be needed than hand out several million in guartanteed money on what’s left of the FA stockpile.

Wow… that was one long sentence. Glad I didn’t have to say it out loud in one breath.

BC of ND says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:46 pm

GGG Where they a better team or did they have an easier schedule then the Twins? I would bet the later is true.

Call Me Stupid says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:47 pm

Mijares should be the 8th inning guy in my opinion.

I actually like the non moves this year.
did I just say that?

Last year more times than not the Defense killed the team in their losses.
Yea the bullpen struggled badly. But there were times things got real ugly after bad errors

mike wants wins says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:47 pm

T: I know you ignore me :(, but I had just posted the news around 1pm.

I have an illogical belief, yes, that Hughes will improve defensively and be on the roster at some point this year (or maybe he’ll replace one of the 5 OFers at some point, or Casilla will move to SS and Hughes will be at 2B).

I also think this is the year Plouffe plays the same level and is no longer one of the youngest players in his league and that he’ll get better.

sane says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:48 pm

the Dragon,
“IF you have a team of mostly sophmores with a couple of stud juniors which preform very well one year, would you generally expect the team to perform even better the following year?’

Absolutely!

And if they didn’t, it would be my fault, and the parents would emphasize that to me.

the Dragon says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:50 pm

bisonaudit,

My optimism is fueled by the pessimism of the rest of this board. Remembering 2008 particularly.

Regards,

the Dragon says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:50 pm

bisonaudit,

My optimism is fueled by the pessimism of the rest of this board. Remembering 2008 particularly.

Regards,

the Dragon says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:51 pm

Sorry for the double post.

Kay says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:52 pm

Harris outperformed Buscher last year and Gardy still preferred to sit Harris on the bench. I won’t take that bet.

My pre-season forecast for how the division finishes:

Cleveland
Chicago
Twins
KC
Detroit

sane says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:52 pm

JimCrikket,
“I’d rather hang on to a few bucks and be able to overspend a bit for help when we know with more certainty where it’s going to be needed than hand out several million in guartanteed money on what’s left of the FA stockpile.”

Agreed!
IDENTIFY the problem!
FIX the problem!
Use a rifle, not buckshot!

thrylos98 says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:53 pm

JC,

one huge big other thing in play: the current collective bargaining agreement expires after the 2011 season. There are about 3-4 owners now who want salary caps of sorts. Give it another year of recession or two and by then the majority of owners might decide that a salary cap (and floor - to please the union) might be necessary for the sport.

re: Doc. The Twins have him locked until his age 32 season. I think that in 2015 (or earlier) they will probably have another starting first baseman (the second easier position to replace effectively other than DH)

mike wants wins says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:54 pm

great, why do you believe they’ll do that, other than the same kind of irrational optimism that leads me to believe in Hughes?

thrylos98 says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:54 pm

if they didn’t, it would be my fault, and the parents would emphasize that to me.

donuts to dollars: if the Twins do not improve next season, Billy will not emphasize to Gardy that it was his fault that did not happen, but will try to find another scapegoat.

the Minnesota Cat says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:55 pm

Let’s see - the roster is 90% set; Crede is maybe 75%; the percentage of games that Buscher doesn’t make an error is maybe 5%; Gardy having a case of the a** for Harris playing third is probably 89%; I don’t like our percentages from a strictly accounting view point. Let’s start Harris at 3rd and make Gardy show some love; go out and sign Sheets to a one year contract and make do with whatever else we’ve got. The percentages that our bullpen will implode again this year are probably off the charts.

Pete D says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:55 pm

“agreed about the Cleveland bullpen. Now based on those numbers you posted, who had the best bullpen in the division, and why change it?”

I’d probably argue that Kansas City had the best bullpen, perhaps the Twins. Why would you change it? I don’t know if I would. I’m not calling for a change to the bullpen. But it isn’t out of the realm to expect Mijares not to pitch as well as he did, and they are losing Reyes.

sane says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:55 pm

Kay,
“Harris outperformed Buscher last year and Gardy still preferred to sit Harris on the bench. I won’t take that bet.”

IMO Gardy was choosing between two unknowns last year.
This year, he has one year’s worth of observations to use.
This year Harris will win the job, IMO.

thrylos98 says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:56 pm

Cat,
Sheets needs elbow surgery

thrylos98 says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:57 pm

Pete D,

the loss of Reyes in those numbers is offset by the inclusion of Rincon’s and Bass’

sane says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:58 pm

mike,
IMO, your faith in Hughes at 2B or LF is not irrational.

Iconoclast says:

February 5th, 2009 at 1:59 pm

To be honest, standing pat is probably the best thing that the Twins could do (other than trading Michael Cuddyer…). They need a 3B, but there were no truly good players available at that position and even the slightly above average ones (Atkins, Beltre) were priced way too high.

The bullpen probably isn’t as bad as it appears. According to Pete D’s stats, we already have the best pen in the division, despite the perceived problems. Plus, I think that Jesse Crain is capable of being the 8th inning guy. His numbers were decent last year, and now that he’s fully recovered from injury he should be even better.

The Twins will be a contender this year, and they do not need to make any offseason moves in order to have a shot at the pennant (other than dumping Cuddyer).

JimCrikket says:

February 5th, 2009 at 2:02 pm

mww, maybe it’s irrational optimism, but as I’ve said, it’s based on 1) the fact that they’ve rarely had the money to spend at mid season, 2) they apparently did try to do so last year (granting we could debate whether they tried hard enough… but efforts were made).

thrylos, I agree the CBA issue is going to be interesting. The problem, as I see it, is that you can’t have salary cap/floor without also having a much higher level of revenue sharing. Without the latter, all a salary cap does is guarantee higher profits for large market teams since their biggest expense (payroll) is artificially inhibited while their revenue streams are not. Teams with low revenues would be forced to pay at least the minumum salary amount, which could put them in financial peril… even if they are more competitive. Should be a very interesting discussion when the time comes.

sane says:

February 5th, 2009 at 2:05 pm

thrylos,
“if the Twins do not improve next season, Billy will not emphasize to Gardy that it was his fault that did not happen”

No, but the players’ parents will.

JimCrikket says:

February 5th, 2009 at 2:09 pm

sane… I’m laughing out loud. The whole image of phone calls and personal visits from the moms and dads of Mauer, Nathan, Baker and even an international call or two from Doc’s parents in Canada, all coming down on Gardy because they are not happy with his managing performance is just too much.

Tub Salmon says:

February 5th, 2009 at 2:10 pm

A couple of thoughts on the Crede thing:

If you’re $15-20 million under budget, and are looking for some power and a decent glove at third base, I just don’t see the problem with committing $6 million to Crede. Could the deal end up being a disappointment? Sure. Will it be a disaster? No.

I appreciate that the Twins are fiscally responsible and stick to their guns when it would be really easy to try to buy talent every year. I also agree that it doesn’t make sense to make a move just to make a move. That said, I think they make it tough for themselves in negotiations when they make it look like they’re unwilling or unable to spend any money. If I’m an opposing GM, I know that the Twins are working from a position of weakness in that they’re not going to either trade for a player with a large contract or sign a guy on the free agent market who might cost a bit. I don’t know. It seems like they might benefit on occasion from showing a willingness to loosen the pursestrings.

So put me in the sign Joe Crede camp, with one caveat: If it’s going to be taking away money that’s going into the giant piggy bank with Joe Mauer’s name on it, then count me out. Signing Mauer long-term should be priority number one.

thrylos98 says:

February 5th, 2009 at 2:11 pm

JC,

the wild card in this is the recession… as is both the Yankees and the Mets are slated to lose money with their new stadiums in 2009/2010. Unlike the Twins who received a grant, the Yankees and the Mets have to pay back state issued bonds. A lot of the Yankees income comes from the YES network, which is a premium network for $1-2 a month in several markets. If half of the occasional viewers cancel their subscriptions to YES due to the economy, half of their revenue from that source will be lost and would have to rely to advertising dollars (which in turn will decrease based on the economy - have you seen a Superbowl before where about 40% of the ads were for Universal movies or NBC shows or GE products -that did not bring any income to the parent company, GE, like this year?) So I really think that this recession will hit the large market teams harder than the small market teams and will probably provide more voices out there for revenue sharing and salary cap/floor

tvet99 says:

February 5th, 2009 at 2:13 pm

Some of you guys are just as ignorant as Bill Smith. What makes you think that the twins will try to improve their team when they move into the new stadium? The twins will make much more money and still not spend any of it to improve the team.
On the Crede issue, why not sign the guy. If he doesn’t pan out that would not be the first mistake Bill Smith has made. It would be a much better gamble than Lamb or Everett. Bill Smith promised to improve the left side of the infield and he hasn’t done anything.
Again I say, the twins need to get rid of Bill Smith. That is the only time we as fans will be able to grab the Star Tribune and read interesting headlines instead of what we got yesterday about the new groundskeeper.

JimCrikket says:

February 5th, 2009 at 2:15 pm

see… now, thrylos, you’re making me smile almost as much as sane is. I hadn’t thought about it from the large market teams’ perspective, but the idea of Hank and Hal having to live on a budget is pretty funny… although, not as funny as

“Hello… Mr. Gardenhire? This is Brendan’s mom and I want to know why you’re playing that Little Nicky Punto kid every game instead of my boy…”

Jerry says:

February 5th, 2009 at 2:16 pm

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: The bullpen “failed” because they got overworked. The reason they got overworked was because the starting pitching didn’t go deep enough into games. More innings from the starter this season will equal an effective bullpen over the long haul.

Any potential trades I’ve read about this winter were NOT worth a starting pitcher and Denard Span and at least a Double A prospect. Stand pat Twins!

AM says:

February 5th, 2009 at 2:18 pm

Wow, that’s big news about Sheets. It didn’t make sense that the Rangers had suddenly called it off, but now it does.

Thrylos, back to a point you made on the earlier post–Pedro would fill a lot of seats in the Metrodome. I think it is true that young Latin players would respect him and learn from him as well.

I think he’s got something left in the tank. As JimCrikket, it’s likely that at some point during the season, the Twins will say “wow, wouldn’t it be nice to have more pitching?”

Kevin H says:

February 5th, 2009 at 2:21 pm

I bet Crede’s price comes down to $ 3.5 mil guaranteed. The market for FA is WAY down for every team not named the Yankees and last I checked they don’t need a 3b.

btw, it’s too bad that Smith didn’t get the idea to not make a silly move just to make a move last year before signing $ 16 mil worth of garbage.

thrylos98 says:

February 5th, 2009 at 2:22 pm

This just in from Heyman:

The Twins look like the favorites over the Giants to grab Joe Crede.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/jon_heyman/02/05/scoop.pedro/1.html

Columbo says:

February 5th, 2009 at 2:23 pm

Harris as an everyday player at 3B.

Against RHP:

Career: 740 AB .258/.316/.395

2007:379 AB .264/.317/.414 42.1 HR/AB
2008:283 AB .265/.329/.396 47.2 HR/AB

Last year, against LHP, he had about the same hitting line as he did against
RHP. In 2007, he raked against lefties.

On top of that, he is below average maybe average at best on defense.

I just do not see Harris as being a very good everyday 3B like others seem to think he could be.

thrylos98 says:

February 5th, 2009 at 2:27 pm

Pedro would fill a lot of seats in the Metrodome

Here is the math:

81 home games. 17 Pedro starts. If 10,000 more people come just because Pedro is pitching, assuming a very conservative $30 left per person in each of his starts you got $5.1 million more revenue.

if 5,000 more people came you got $2.6 million revenue.

Plus the money the Twins will make from the Pedro Martinez paraphernalia…

A $3-4M+incentives/1 year+option will practically pay itself.

jon says:

February 5th, 2009 at 2:28 pm

tvet,
“Some of you guys are just as ignorant as Bill Smith.”

Just don’t accuse me of being as ignorant as you.

Kay says:

February 5th, 2009 at 2:28 pm

Columbo, he is better than Buscher. And sane, I hope you are right, but for whatever reason Harris is in Gardy’s doghouse.

Does Heyman know something that Joe and LENIII do not?

bisonaudit says:

February 5th, 2009 at 2:29 pm

Columbo,

I agree, but I don’t think Harris will be playing everyday. Likely a platoon w/ Buscher which makes them both look better, at the plate anyway.

If you’re trying to compare the current 3B to possible additions, I think you’ve got to look at them as a platoon.

thrylos98 says:

February 5th, 2009 at 2:32 pm

Does Heyman know something that Joe and LENIII do not?

Heyman has an inside line to Boras and a lot of other agents and some GMs, which I suspect Joe and LEN3 luck.

Colt says:

February 5th, 2009 at 2:37 pm

Is Tony Batista available?

KB says:

February 5th, 2009 at 2:39 pm

“Heyman has an inside line to Boras and a lot of other agents and some GMs, which I ”
True, but LEN3 and Joe C. have an inside track on the Twins FO. I don’t know who to believe. I know who I want to believe….

T says:

February 5th, 2009 at 2:40 pm

Could the deal end up being a disappointment? Sure. Will it be a disaster? No.

That’s the same line of thought that gave us a left side of the infield consisting of Mike “Power Outage” Lamb and Adam “Noodle Arm” Everett.

jon says:

February 5th, 2009 at 2:41 pm

JimCrikket,

Some of the Twins players’ parents are upset at Gardy for his foul-mouth, hat-kicking disputes with umpires.

Something about being a bad example for their children.

tom says:

February 5th, 2009 at 2:41 pm

if we shelled out 5 mil for livan for a half season last year, why not take the chance with crede this year..cmon man

Ben W says:

February 5th, 2009 at 2:42 pm

Working in the Twins front office is even easier than being a member of the Metrodome grounds crew.

sane says:

February 5th, 2009 at 2:43 pm

My bad!
The 2:41 PM post was from me.

I have to start checking the “name required box” before I submit.

PurpleVader says:

February 5th, 2009 at 2:44 pm

77-85 with the current roster. Sign Manny Ramirez for 30 million for one season and they win the division and the skys the limit. Unless Gardy makes him hit for singles of course. Never underestimate the lame coaching of the 6-15 in the playoffs, smallball coach.

thrylos98 says:

February 5th, 2009 at 2:44 pm

but LEN3 and Joe C. have an inside track on the Twins FO.

the Twins’ front office is tight lipped.

Ask Joe and LaVelle :)

agents and some other front offices (the Giants’ being one) are not. There is the difference

the Minnesota Cat says:

February 5th, 2009 at 2:45 pm

thry,

My bad - haven’t had time to check the wire out to see who’s doing what. Looks like we have a chance, albeit a small one, to land Crede and I don’t think that would be a bad thing. I would rather see Crede/Harris than Harris/Buscher at 3rd. Go Twins.

sane says:

February 5th, 2009 at 2:46 pm

If Boras is Heyman’s source, Heyman has a professional liar for a source.

Boras’ job is to disseminate false information for the sole purpose of helping his clients and his commission.

T says:

February 5th, 2009 at 2:46 pm

thrylos: You’re assuming Martinez performs at a level that would actually encourage people to come watch.

gobbledygookguy says:

February 5th, 2009 at 2:46 pm

i love that one we’ll save some money so we can make a move later. let’s see in 07 the payroll was about 75m, they said when the new stadium opens they’d beable to add about 20% to that. so in 08 it was 55 because they were saving some for later and this year we’re saving abother 20 so add that all together we’d have 75 plus 20% which would be 90m plus the extra 20 from last yr we saved and 20 from this yr we’re saving and we have 130 to spend next yr. boy will that be a fun off season.

bisonaudit says:

February 5th, 2009 at 2:47 pm

PurpleVader:

playoffs = crapshoot

If you’re looking to club Gardy, there’s much better material available.

T says:

February 5th, 2009 at 2:47 pm

they said when the new stadium opens they’d beable to add about 20% to that

Funny, I missed the part where the new stadium was open.

T says:

February 5th, 2009 at 2:49 pm

if we shelled out 5 mil for livan for a half season last year, why not take the chance with crede this year..

It’s that kind of “thinking” that the FO is trying to get rid of.

And honestly I’m glad. I’d rather shell out for knowns than pay cheap vets and hope to recapture former glory.

sane says:

February 5th, 2009 at 2:49 pm

vader,
Gardy couldn’t “make” Manny do ANYTHING, not even get a trim.

Manny would do as he pleased, if the Voice of God gave him a suggestion.

Kevin H says:

February 5th, 2009 at 2:55 pm

Heyman = Boras mouthpiece. Zero credibility.

Ben W says:

February 5th, 2009 at 2:56 pm

Joe, where did you come up with the “90% certain” figure?

thrylos98 says:

February 5th, 2009 at 2:56 pm

T,
thrylos: You’re assuming Martinez performs at a level that would actually encourage people to come watch.

I was expecting that, so I did some research ;)

The last time the Twins got a hall of famer pitcher was July 31, 1987 when they got Steve Carlton from the Indians. Carlton sucked in 1987 in a major way.

he made 3 starts in the dome that season. Here are the amount of fans who came to his games compared to those who came to the previous (or next game - I am comparing Sat with Sun not Fri for obvious reasons):

8/8: 50,237 Sat
8/9: 33,948 Sun
16,289
(the first time the Twins cracked 50K people in the dome other than opening day)

8/13: 35,837 Thu
8/14: 26, 291 Fri
9546

9/5: 33,033 Sat
9/6: 36,586 Sun
3553
(at this point the Twins were in the thick of a pennant race)

average: 9796

I also did some research after that post to find the average $ a fan spends in the dome (Because I thought that that $30 was low): Each fan counts for about $41 in 2008 ( http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/1366620/minnesota_twins_owner_carl_pohlad_dies.html )

so the new math:

average: +9796 (taking Carlton’s numbers and assuming equal suckage for Pedro)

home games 81
17 Pedro starts
the average fan spends $41 in the park

total: $6,827,812

and that’s just from butts in the seats, not events, memorabilia, jerseys etc…

(not to mention that every time the Twins went out and got a hall of famer or a near hall of famer pitcher, they won the world series, so if the butts on the seats and the performance arguments are not enough, here is a karmic argument ;) )

sane says:

February 5th, 2009 at 2:56 pm

Repeating what I’ve said before:

Crede can NEVER be a Twin, because Gardy’s nickname for him would have to be “Cree-dee-eee”.

THAT JUST DOES NOT WORK!

gobbledygookguy says:

February 5th, 2009 at 2:59 pm

“Funny, I missed the part where the new stadium was open.”

t maybe you should read the entire thing and not always take parts to comment on. i said next year!!!
“to spend next yr.”

bisonaudit says:

February 5th, 2009 at 2:59 pm

sane:

That’s the same standard Bush 43 used to select is cabinet. ;)

Ben W says:

February 5th, 2009 at 3:01 pm

Crede-Dog

BC of ND says:

February 5th, 2009 at 3:01 pm

By not signing anyone this year it all fits into their secret plan code named “Pujols” you didn’t hear that from me though.

sane says:

February 5th, 2009 at 3:03 pm

Ben W,
“Crede-Dog”

Gardy doesn’t like Hip-Hop.

Pete D says:

February 5th, 2009 at 3:04 pm

thrylos -

You did notice that the numbers went 16,289, to 9,546, to 3,553 right? Which means that in three starts, the ‘novelty’ of seeing Steve Carlton pitch had been almost completely lost.

And besides - three games is your sample size? Come on. What if there was a give-away that first day? Cheap tickets for veterans? Opposing pitcher? There are a TON of other variables.

sane says:

February 5th, 2009 at 3:06 pm

BC of ND,

The plan NAME does not have to relate to the actual plan.

“Pujols” may be the secret plan code for “give Punto a contract extension”.

Yossarian says:

February 5th, 2009 at 3:07 pm

Haven’t we had enough free agent signings of washed-up retreads yet?

Ben W says:

February 5th, 2009 at 3:07 pm

sane, we’ve already got Red-Dog, Hair-Dog, and Busch-Dog. Gardy loves the hip-hop almost as much as he loves buying hardware.

bisonaudit says:

February 5th, 2009 at 3:07 pm

BC of ND

The black helicopters are on standby.

bisonaudit says:

February 5th, 2009 at 3:09 pm

…and I’m wearing my tinfoil hat.

sane says:

February 5th, 2009 at 3:09 pm

Ben W,
You are right.
I forgot that “Dog” is the Country-Western crossover translation of “Dawg”.

bisonaudit says:

February 5th, 2009 at 3:10 pm

Sorry, not enough floride as a kid.

bisonaudit says:

February 5th, 2009 at 3:14 pm

RE: washed up retreads

Blyleven, Morris, and Don Balyor worked out OK from what I remember.

Miller for life says:

February 5th, 2009 at 3:14 pm

It’s about as silly to do nothing as it is to make Nick Punto your starting ss, but when his contract is up he will be starting in AAA somewhere

sane says:

February 5th, 2009 at 3:19 pm

“Nick Punto your starting ss, but when his contract is up he will be starting in AAA somewhere”

Only if Gardy is managing in AAA at the same “somewhere”.

Punto will be working on the 9th year of a “personal services contract”

FantasyGoat says:

February 5th, 2009 at 3:19 pm

While I think that the Twins missed out on a few things this offseason, I’m certainly not as pessimistic as most people on here.

The Twins aren’t huge spenders. If you want a team that’s gonna blow millions, follow a different team.

With the exception of maybe Lyon and DeRosa, there were no players (within the Twins’ payroll), there were no guys that I think deserved a Slowey, Delmon, Span, etc. Names like Eric Gagne and Joe Crede really don’t make my palms sweat.

I say give it some time. Like all teams, the Twins have holes. I think the bullpen will work itself out through guys stepping up (Bonser) or AAA guys. I think Crain will be better, but I do worry about Gardy’s man-crush on Matty G. 3rd base is worrisome, but we’re pretty solid everywhere else.

I know the spending is low this season, but I’d rather see them save the money for someone like Mauer rather than 1 year’s worth of play from a 75% Joe Crede.

And, unlike a lot of teams, the Twins have shown that they can compete on a regular basis with a relatively low payroll. They ain’t the Yankees, but at least they ain’t the Pirates.

BC of ND says:

February 5th, 2009 at 3:19 pm

Sane is it dog, dawg or dogg?

“Sorry, not enough floride as a kid”

But what about all those yummy lead paint chips?

sane says:

February 5th, 2009 at 3:21 pm

Bisonaudit,
R\Twins retreads like Dave Winfield, Chili Davis and Paul Molitor.

thrylos98 says:

February 5th, 2009 at 3:22 pm

16,289, to 9,546, to 3,553 right? Which means that in three starts, the ‘novelty’ of seeing Steve Carlton pitch had been almost completely lost.

no it means that from the beginning of September on while the Twins were in a pennant race, fans were coming in anyways but more so when Carlton pitched that last time. And the opposing pitcher of Carlton were not anyone of note. As far as the sample size, yes it is small, but that’s all we got.

Do you disagree with the fact that Pedro will bring butts on the seats just because he is Pedro?

lpreston214 says:

February 5th, 2009 at 3:22 pm

I’m disappointed to hear Crede is only 75% but I wonder what that really means. Is the guy just not in shape or is he 25% limited in range of motion swinging the bat or bending over? Everyone waiting for the Twins to make a major/good move I would say, how long have you lived in this state? Give it up people. Don’t use up your energy complaining. Maybe I’m old but there’s just no point to wishing for what will not happen and we can’t control anyway.

sane says:

February 5th, 2009 at 3:26 pm

BC of ND,
“Sane is it dog, dawg or dogg?”

I think its Dawg, although I live in the same town as Snoop Doggy Sh-t.
I think that he mis-spelled it.

rainking says:

February 5th, 2009 at 3:27 pm

Juan Cruz led the NL with 12.37 K’s per nine innings. Give up the picks chances are slim they will be as good as Cruz.
We probably would draft in the middle of the 1st round anyway.
Cruz, Mijares, and Nathan = 7 inning game.
Guerrier would not have to take the mound in critical situations.
Sign Crede for some POP and we are good to go.

Pete D says:

February 5th, 2009 at 3:27 pm

thrylos -

So I looked into the Carlton thing a bit more. His start on the 13th was against the California Angels, while the game on the 14th was against the Mariners. The game on the 12, against the Angels, drew 33,033 fans, making the difference only 2,804, not 9,546.

Then, on the night of the the 6th, Carlton pitched against the Brewers and 36,586 people showed up. However, on the night of the 5th, BaseballReference.com says that 51,122 people came out to watch the Twins come from behind to beat the Brewers 2-1. I don’t know where you got your data from, but that makes it a -14,536, not a 3,553.

And Carlton actually started 1 more game for the Twins at the Dome that year - Saturday, September 26th against the Royals. A great crowd of 46,263 showed up that game. On the 25th, however, 52,704 showed up to the Metrodome. On the 27th, 53,106 people showed up. Let’s go with your Saturday/Sunday comparison. So that’s another -6,843.

So, by your math, if we are going to use the four starts he had, he had the following effect on attendance, if we ignore anything else except the team the Twins faced -

+16289
+2804
-14536
-6843

That gives us a grand total of -2,286 people. Divide that by 4, we get -571.5. Rounding down to -571 people fewer per game, and Steve Carlton cost the team attendance - not gained.

bisonaudit says:

February 5th, 2009 at 3:30 pm

BC of ND:

Sorry, I’m not up to speed on the lead paint conspiracy.

BC of ND says:

February 5th, 2009 at 3:32 pm

Thrylos and Pete you guys hurt my head.

sane says:

February 5th, 2009 at 3:34 pm

thrylos,

I think we are at least three years past the time when Pedro drew people to the ballpark.
I wouldn’t go to see him.

nyfan20 says:

February 5th, 2009 at 3:39 pm

I think almost all of the reluctance to sign FA’s is because of the economy and Mauer. Mauer will be paid 15 to 25 mil a yr if they had to sign him today. They are probably really afraid of the economy, which is why they have yet to sign Mauer. That being said the left side of the infield is a joke, and Casilla isn’t a sure thing either. With a gluttony of outfielders and young pitching, it’s remarkable that they don’t make a deal even if they have to overpay. There is no room in Target Field for all of the pitchers getting old in the minors, they become less valuable over time. Trade them now for a high caliber infielder, throw in span(I have little faith in him).

BC of ND says:

February 5th, 2009 at 3:43 pm

I’m with sane on Pedro and i would tell any youngster that never knew him that in the late 90’s he was the best pitcher on the planet hands down.

birdofprey says:

February 5th, 2009 at 3:46 pm

Can you think of a single prospective 3B candidate among Blake, DeRosa, Wigginton, Atkins, Kouzmanoff,and even Crede, who wasn’t described by at least a couple of bloggers as a poor alternative to Buscher/Harris? I don’t recall anyone being accused of offering their assessment dishonestly. But if their name was Billy Smith, all hell would have broken loose, right? And keep in mind the FO has to be careful not to disparage the skill sets of the players, so they have to, by default, use some other vague reason for backing away. They can’t say “we watched Crede, and he’s damaged goods”. So, we just don’t know the whole story sometimes.

Kevin H says:

February 5th, 2009 at 3:47 pm

There’s a serious flaw in your Carlton argument. If Pedro pitches as poorly as Carlton did, he won’t last half the season. Carlton only started 7 games in 1987 as a Twin.

thrylos98 says:

February 5th, 2009 at 4:01 pm

Carlton only started 7 games in 1987 as a Twin.

Because he came to the team in the trading deadline

Pete D,
I will double check those numbers.

The other thing is that Carlton was 42 when he joined the Twins. Pedro will be 37 at opening day and he has at least 1-2 decent years left.

sane says:

February 5th, 2009 at 4:06 pm

Stop the presses!
Guerrier signs for $1.475 million.

On to Fort Myers!

birdofprey says:

February 5th, 2009 at 4:08 pm

Pedro Martinez? Why? What problem does he solve? Was he decent last year? What gives you confidence he’ll be decent in ‘09? He seems like such a curious player to have on the Twins wish list.

sane says:

February 5th, 2009 at 4:09 pm

Holy crap!

A groundskeeper - then a long reliever in just 24 hours!

This train is ROLLING!!!!!!!!

sane says:

February 5th, 2009 at 4:10 pm

Its a freaking BEEHIVE at 34 Kirby Puckett Place!

BC of ND says:

February 5th, 2009 at 4:13 pm

” A groundskeeper - then a long reliever in just 24 hours!

This train is ROLLING!!!!!!!!”

Such reckless spending will not doubt come back to haunt them.

Walter Johnson says:

February 5th, 2009 at 4:18 pm

I would more likely go to watch Pedro Martinez if he were in town as an opposing player than go to watch him everytime he pitched if he were a Twin (assuming I would not go to a game otherwise).

Ben W says:

February 5th, 2009 at 4:19 pm

World Series here we come!

the Minnesota Cat says:

February 5th, 2009 at 4:19 pm

One has to wonder if Guerrier was the other 10% when the FO said that the rosters were 90% set; or perhaps there is room for a 3rd baseman who is only 75%.

AM says:

February 5th, 2009 at 4:19 pm

I think it would be fun to have Pedro on the team. I think there is a significant chance that more fans would come to the Metrodome to watch Pedro Martinez pitch than they would see Glen Perkins pitch. I also think he still has some of his old stuff left, and would help the team.

Just my opinion. Not worth spending much time on a non-existent possibility, though.

sane says:

February 5th, 2009 at 4:22 pm

General Manager’s Day Planner:

1) Hire groundskeeper.

2) Sign Guerrier.

3) Take out the trash.

4) If there is time, talk to Boras about Crede.

5) Check out.

Steve H says:

February 5th, 2009 at 4:25 pm

Sheets is just going in now to get the elbow fixed. That right there shows he was just tryin to get some money out of someone while he sits out on the DL all year long. Todays athletes are such a joke.

birdofprey says:

February 5th, 2009 at 4:32 pm

sane, when the GM took out the trash, Buscher objected strenuously and wouldn’t stay in the can.

USAFChief says:

February 5th, 2009 at 4:34 pm

1) Hire groundskeeper.

2) Sign Guerrier.

3) Take out the trash.

4) If there is time, talk to Boras about Crede.

5) Check out.

Tomorrow: Ditto, except scratch items 1, 2, and 4.

jhawk90 says:

February 5th, 2009 at 4:40 pm

General Manager’s Diary:

“Dear Diary:
Today was a sad day. I spent 1.475 million on that nice reliever Matty, but that only leaves me with .025 million dollars on my ‘09 player allowance that one of those Pohlad boys gave me! It’s not fair! : (

I mean everyone else is always teasing me about how much they get to spend. Even that doo-doo head Dayton (lol!) from K.C. gets to spend more than me just ’cause they have FOUNTAINS! OOOOOOOOOOH! I wish we had some.

Anyway gtg - Gardy’s coming over to play XBOX and Pokemon.

ttly -
Bill”

el bonewaa says:

February 5th, 2009 at 4:41 pm

LEN said that there is an update about a “certain 3rd baseman” coming. Whats up Joe???

andrew says:

February 5th, 2009 at 4:45 pm

crede at 75% is better than both harris and buscher put together at 100%… 5million for even half the year 81 games is better than not having him at all..

sane says:

February 5th, 2009 at 4:47 pm

Crede on the DL for 162 days is 75% of nothing.

USAFChief says:

February 5th, 2009 at 4:53 pm

Crede on the DL for 162 days is 75% of nothing.

And the downside of that scenario?

The Pohlad boys are out $5M bucks. Drew Butera gets exposed off the 40 man roster. The Twins open the season with a Buscher/Harris platoon at third.

Why does anyone care about that?

Todd Ewing says:

February 5th, 2009 at 6:04 pm

why in the blue hell is Biff Bonser an option go sign Gagne and dump this stiff….

Rob says:

February 5th, 2009 at 6:09 pm

Ive had enough of this, how the hell do so many of you gus post 40 times a day? Like 3 posts a day is cool, but most of you must not have a job.

GCOkemos says:

February 5th, 2009 at 6:18 pm

Fine do nothing. BUt for the love of GAWD if you do nothing you at least better negotiate an extension w/ mauer. Or perhaps a deal with baker. hello? earth to billy.

Rob says:

February 5th, 2009 at 6:20 pm

Holy lord I read some more, who on this blog has had sex? I’m not talking to the average guys who post once or twice. You guys know who you are, maybe you should leave moms basement and meet a lady. Do you have any idea how hard joe and len laugh when they read your stalker comments???

GCOkemos says:

February 5th, 2009 at 6:26 pm

Rob, lets think about this objectively. Who is a bigger loser? Those that converse on this blog, or those who heckle those that converse on this blog?

Go burn ants or something.

Rob says:

February 5th, 2009 at 6:32 pm

GCOkemos, that doesnt answer my question. Im just wondering what type of person has that sort of time throughout the average work day. I sure as hell dont …

USAFChief says:

February 5th, 2009 at 6:46 pm

Im just wondering what type of person has that sort of time throughout the average work day. I sure as hell dont …

Bummer for you, dude. Have you thought about finishing up the GED?

digga says:

February 5th, 2009 at 7:05 pm

I’m about 90% sure I won’t be wasting money on Twins tix this year

joshbignose says:

February 5th, 2009 at 8:01 pm

1)What Crede or any other player is worth is subjective. One thing is certain: both the attendance and general income will decrease in 2009 because of the economy. Team owners have a right to be careful.

2) The Twins have the following players who can play third (none perfect):

-Buscher (may improve defense)
-Harris (solid average player)
-Tolbert (eager young player)
-Punto (when not shortstop)
-Cuddyer (yes, him)
-Luke Hughes (young prospect)
-Trevor Plouffe (young prospect)

One or two of the above can fit the bill

3)Relief pitching is still a problem.
-

3rdbaseman says:

February 5th, 2009 at 8:14 pm

Man if we had Crede at third it would add some hitting protection for Morneau, put Harris at short over Punto for more hitting and hope to heck Delmon or Cuddy can hit with a little power this year, we might pull it off.

LARTWINFAN says:

February 5th, 2009 at 8:28 pm

My wife asked me “What happens on Feb 14.” I said “I think pitchers and catchers report for ST.”
Unfortunatly she was referring to Valentines Day.
She needs to be more patient with me.
HAVE FUN !!! GO TWINS !!!

Chris says:

February 5th, 2009 at 9:15 pm

A couple of things: 1. Joe C. states the Twins feel confident that their current bullpen setup will work as well as anyone who’s still on the market. This is probably true. My only question is: why didn’t Bill Smith sign one of the better relievers earlier this winter? 2. As I’ve said before, Joe Crede is a great hitter and a very good defender. He’s got all spring to get closer to 100% by opening day. Moreover, Brian Buscher is presumably going to get a lot of playing time even if the Twins did sign Crede. Thus, Crede will get plenty of rest throughout the season so as to preserve his back.

Andhra Pradesh says:

February 5th, 2009 at 9:41 pm

Rob says: “Holy lord I read some more, who on this blog has had sex?”

I says: “Seems that most people here report they are being screwed by Billy Smith daily.”

Michael Blaine says:

February 5th, 2009 at 9:55 pm

Abreu, Ramirez, Cruz, Sheets, Dunn. . .

The Twins need to take advantage of the most affordable FA market in decades and sign an impact guy that will get the fans excited.

John says:

February 5th, 2009 at 10:08 pm

Nice list Jesse -
Remember that Cabrera got moved to 1st because he couldn’t handle third in the AL. Glaus and Rolen are over the hill, so they earned their money along, long time ago! Crede for $5M is a deal folks! For Boras to send him to San Fran and the UNFRIENDLY confines of that yard??? He will be much better suited to take what the Twins offer. He is familiar with the league and the division. Plus in one year, he can go after Manny money after he hits 40 HR and drives in 120+ in the middle of a loaded line up! Unless of course Gardenhire does something stupid like bat him 7th with Punto and Gomez to protect him. Just like he did with D-Young last year.

sploorp says:

February 6th, 2009 at 1:08 am

My impression of the 75% thing was that had nothing to do with health, it was about intensity. I remember it being a scout saying that it was difficult to gage his health since Crede was only playing at 75%.

DE says:

February 6th, 2009 at 1:42 pm

Twins Line-up: 1. Span(cf) 2. Casilla (2b) 3. Mauer (c) 4. Morneau (1b) 5. Crede (3b) 6. Kuble (dh) 7. Young (rf) 8. Harris (ss) 9. Gomez (cf) Reserves: Cuddyer (dh/rf/1b/ph) Punto (ss/2b) Buscher (3b/ph) Redmund (c) Starting Pitchers: Baker, Liriano, Slowey, Blackburn, Perkins Bullpen: Bonser(long relief), Humber (long relief), Breslow, Guerrier, Mijares,Crain, Nathan

John says:

February 6th, 2009 at 4:09 pm

Detroit has 2 new Catchers & New Short Stop +they have added 2 new Pitchers.All of the picthers that were injured are back + Lots of minors Leagers that are close or ready.They also have new picthing coach who used to be Minn minor league Coach.Good Man Will they win it all? What ever But they will be Better.

Hot Offseason Action: Minnesota Twins | umpbump.com says:

February 7th, 2009 at 10:22 am

[…] Twins didn’t make any major moves, and barring a sudden change of heart to sign Crede, the roster is pretty much set. A couple of months ago, I wrote in my What They Need that the Twins were a few very realistic […]