Twins were wise to pass on Gagne; Cordero update
Posted on March 9th, 2009 – 6:43 AMBy Joe Christensen
FORT MYERS, FLA. — The Twins had a $3 million guaranteed offer on the table for reliever Eric Gagne before they agreed to their $1.3 million deal with reliever Luis Ayala.
The decision to go with Ayala instead of Gagne looks better now, as Gagne was released by the Brewers on Sunday and could be facing season-ending shoulder surgery.
The Brewers signed Gagne to a deal that would have paid him $1.5 million, but only if he made the big league roster.
The Twins’ offer was guaranteed, pending a physical, so they could have come to the same conclusion about Gagne’s shoulder. An MRI revealed the former Cy Young Award winner has labrum and rotator cuff damage.
Meanwhile, we’re told the Twins continue to monitor former Nationals closer Chad Cordero, as he recovers from shoulder surgery. Cordero has a ways to go in his recovery, however, and as with Joe Crede, the Twins want to see more progress before making an offer.
70 Responses to "Twins were wise to pass on Gagne; Cordero update"
FIRST!
I still don’t know why there was so much complaining about it. So many people keep whining about the re-treads that the Twins keep signing, and, well, that is EXACTLY what Gagne would have been. Wouldn’t have mattered what the Twins did, they would have been wrong in people’s eyes about it. Either they wasted their money signing a retread, or that they were too dang cheap to sign him. As it is, hindsight is 20/20. Glad to see it worked out for a change.
Sometimes its more about the people you don’t sign…that would have been a disaster!
What’s the progress on Mauer? Still unknown for Opening Day? Long term? Will this effect him through the season? If so, are we comfortable with our young guys if Mauer starts the year on the DL? Maybe we need to take a look at Pudge for a one year deal….
“I still don’t know why there was so much complaining about it”
I don’t recall very many posters being upset that they didn’t sign Gagne. It seemed like there was a huge sigh of relief (pun intended) when it was announced the Twins had pulled out of the deal.
[…] turns out that Gagne has The Jesse Crain Special, a torn labrum and rotator cuff, and will probably need season-ending shoulder surgery. He was […]
“Pitching prospect faces shoulder surgery” is what it says in the headline on the front page. I don’t think Gagne is exaclty a prospect since he’s been pitching in the big leagues since 1999.
In other news it looks like we’ll get either LNP or Morneausie/Crain back tomorrow. Italy v. Canada tonight.
My guess is that LNP will be the one back first. Better get those pillow bases back out of storage down in Ft. Myers.
who really cares
I still think the Twins should have got Takashi Saito from the Dodgers, he would have been a great set-up guy for Nathan. Ayala is part of the reason the Mets missed the playoffs last year and they went on a spending spree this off-season to acquire K-Rod,Putz and that other guy. Its because their bullpen with Ayala among others was historically bad. I dont like that signing. The Crede one I do, he is not a superstar, but better than anyone we got at third currently. One more year Valencia will be ready to take over for the next 10 years and be a stud at third, but he’s not ready yet and Crede can fill that gap before he’s ready. Good signing.
I havent been following the Twinkies nearly as much as I had planned this spring training, can anyone give me an update on the suprises and dissapointments this spring? Who’s doing good and who’s off to a cold start. I know about Frankies great outing yesterday and Mauers injury but thats about it. Any of our young arms in the minor leagues making a case for a big league spot (Duensing,Slama etc). Thanks.
Kent -
Cuddyer is not hitting, D Young is crushing the ball, and all the bloggers are betting Gardy will start Cuddyer and bench Young.
I don’t recall very many posters being upset that they didn’t sign Gagne.
I recall a number of comments from people who believed that the Twins had been bluffing about being interested in Gagne, and only backed off once Gagne supposedly “called” said bluff.
The link to this story said “Pitching prospect faces shoulder surgery”
The editors know Gagne’s by no means a prospect, right?
db, that’s what I was wondering.
The whole Gagne deal was kind of wierd and i still think the Twins were bluffing and really didn’t want him.
Which contract looks better now, a year of Gagne for $3M or Baker for an average of less than $5M for five years?
bop i loved hearing about the Baker signing even though it might seem like a gamble right now
Ponson and a handful of spares are unsigned.
It is a gamble not to sign him to a longterm deal as well.
I recall the posters who were most upset about the Gagne balk were those who were convinced that we had pissed off Scott Boras so there was no way Joe Crede would sign with us.
Wrong and Wrong.
Exactly right, Aaron… if you don’t sign him now and he has the great year you hope he’s in store for this season, the price only is going to go up.
Could Baker be another Mays? Sure. But it’s not like they’re talking $15mil per season.
I’m not sure this was really such a close call with regard to wasting money on Gagne, though. I would assume (or certainly hope) the physical the Twins would have required prior to signing the deal would have uncovered the shoulder problem anyway.
Has there been any interest in Dennys Reyes by any teams?
Cap…
The Cardnials showed interest.
So much so that they signed him last week. 2 years 3 mil.
Reyes signed with the Cardinals.
The financial risk of signing Baker is so very manageable. A legitimate #2 starter in this league on a contending team. And from Baker’s standpoint, kudos to him for resisting the greed instinct and taking care of his own risks. His agent must be fuming.
and we got the 46th pick for him as well. could get a nice player at that point
marv
cuddy had a nice triple in the 2nd inning a couple games ago, and is throwing bullets from RF. as far as young over Cuddy, I think Span better watch it because Gomez is looking quite good and so is Young (and even Cuddy - who is pretty much guaranteed a spot anyway due to Gardy and his contract) and Span has been lackluster at best.
the rest of the team: Casilla is not hitting at all. Kubel, Buscher, Harris are all hitting, Crede is finding his form, and the pitching for the most part has been outstanding.
things are looking promising. we just need our 2 best hitters back…
his agent should be happy - his client was just signed for 15 mill guaranteed. if his client gets injured during the arb years w/o this 15 mill guaranteed he’s out all that pay.
at least if i was an agent, that’s how i would see it..
Agents spread their own risks among a number of clients, which allows them to seek to optimize value. Most of these agents could really care less about managing the players’ injury risks. If they did, you’d see more contracts where the player obviously leaves some financial upside on the table like Baker just did.
I hope the Twins take a chance on Cordero. As far as closing if Nathan were to miss time for any reason Crain and Ayala aren’t ideal options.
I agree with shazel on this one
I for one am confident the Twins FO knows what they are doing. Cordero was great once apon a time. Let the Twins look and see what they see. If they do sign him, rest assured it will be a good BB decision.
MedSchool
Casilla his hitting just fine actually… 3 for 4 today bringing his spring training BA to .444 also… Crede has yet to record a ST hit.
Good move on Gagne, bad move not signing Cruz. The bullpen is still a weakness of this team. A first round pick would have been a small price to pay for the best set up guy in baseball.
I was just down in Ft. Myers for 4 games this past week. I think that Casilla, and Gomez are playing really well. Cuddyer is playing better than I expected and Kubel is punishing the ball. As for Delmon, he is not getting his hits off pitchers that are going to make the big league club and he too often hits soft ground balls. I saw Slowey, Baker, and Perkins pitch and I thought they all looked great. Span looked horrible, I am a huge Span fan so I hope he turns it around but his timing hitting wise is way off. One exciting young player is Wilson Ramos, if you get a chance to watch him take BP he has more power than anyone not named Morneau. I haven’t seen much of him versus live pitching but it is nice to see some with a little bit of power in our minor league system.
shazel,
Cordero was a decent closing option…like 3 years ago.
Regards,
I want to hear Barrieo eat some crow on this one…”The Twins have got to get out of this box - Give Gagne what he wants!!!! SIGN HIM! SIGN HIM!” Hopefully Barrio needs mouth surgery to remove his foot.
Thanks Ryan and sane, I figured he was with another team by now. I guess the Twins felt 3 million was a little much for a guy who would throw 3 pitches every 4th day. I was a fan of Reyes though.
I agree Cordero was a much better player from 2004 and 2005. He actually finished fifth in NL Cy Young voting in 2005. He had 37 Saves in 2007, but had a 3.36 ERA. Nathan had a 1.33 ERA last season. However, I would like to see the Twins take a chance with Codero, provided he’s fully recovered, just to give them another option.
Please someone tell me why Bill Smith didn’t make the same three million dollar offer to Juan Cruz. I forget, we need the draft pick for a high School prospect and Cruz is not a reconstruction project.
As for Delmon, he is not getting his hits off pitchers that are going to make the big league club
Reality check:
here are Delmon’s hits (in reverse order) this spring:
His homerun today came off Joe Nelson who pitched in 59 games with
the Marlins last season and ended up with 2.00 ERA and 60K in 54
innings
His other hit today came off Dan Wheeler. Both will make the big
league club.
His hit against the Pirates came off Chris Bootcheck who might or
might not make the club but has 5 years MLB experience and was an integreal part of the Angels’ pen in 2007.
His hit against the Reds cam off Aaron Harang who is their #2
starter
Against the Yankees he had a double off Joba Chamberlain (who is making the club), a single of Giese who was with the Yankees last season and a single off Michael Dunn who will not make the club.
So far 6-1 (will make vs will not)
In the other game against the Yankees, his first hit came off Ian Kennedy who probably will not make the club and the second against Anthony Claggett who will not make the club
score: 6-3
Against Boston his hit came off Wakefield.
Score: 7-4 (make/will not make)
Dave B
Man, you have a point.
I hate to mortgage the future. When you’re a piece or two away, however, maybe you need not be a slave to that principal.
Here’s how I see it:
We give up one year of Ayala plus our #1 choice (23 overall, I believe),plus 4.3 M (3.25 Y1, plus 2.25 Y2 plus 0.5M Y3 declined option, less 1.3 M Ayala 2009, less 0.8M for the serf that takes Cruz theoretical roster spot in 2010)
We get two years of Cruz and an option on year three for 3.5M (4M less 0.5M buyout).
Recap:
Ayala- 2009
# 23 draft pick
4.3 M
for
Cruz 2009
Cruz 2010
Cruz 2011- 3.5 Moption
That’s a trigger I have to pull.
So Dave B and rghrbek, tell all of us about the draft pick we give up for Cruz, OK? Uh huh, a high School prospect…you sure about that now Dave B? Dave?
I thought so. You have no idea, but its worth it. I see.
We get two years of Cruz
I think that this was the single biggest issue that Cruz had for the Twins’ offer: It was for one year (and it made sense to be for no longer than that). In 2010: Neshek will be back, Bonser will be back and Crain will be with the team. Also, Delaney and Mijares will likely be MLB-ready, and Slama in their footsteps…
there really is not much room for Cruz in 2010 and beyond (and the guy never pitched successfully in the AL to think that he is a sure thing…)
Just got back from a week down in Ft Myers. Went to three games, including the Puerto Rico game. Our pitching (starters especially) look great so far. Baker went against that AS lineup and shut them down. He may I-Rod look silly twice. Perkins tossed four shutout innings vs. the Reds and three previously against Boston.
The defense looks very good, especially on the IF. Lexi made at least three sparkling plays at 2B over the three games. Saw one HR total in three games, none by the Twins. Pitching dominated.
None of the rookies/minor leaguers stood out, but Valencia has a cannon of an arm over at 3B. Buscher looked good at 1B and was hitting fairly well, as was Kubel. Denard is off to a slow Spring start, but I think he’ll be fine. It was pretty cool to watch him up close in the cage, with Rod Carew throwing BP and giving him instruction.
This pitching staff has a chance to become what Atlanta had through the 90’s. Cruz probably would’ve helped, but I’m think not as much as some of you. His only year in the AL (’05) he got lit up pretty good. So while he can get some K’s, he’ll walk a fair share. And we don’t need that in a one-run game in the eighth inning.
I think this could be a very fun, last year in the Dome. Personally, I can’t wait until they blow that place up, but it should still be fun. I’ve been to 30 MLB ballparks over the years and the Dome ranks dead last.
Let’s hope the news on Mauer is good. That could change a lot of things.
You’re going to confuse the issue with those pesky details, thrylos. Cruz would have come in here and blown batters away, with a WHIP of .42. All of Crede’s 36 HR’s on top of it? Don’t pee in the punch bowl with your nasty realistic expectations.
You have no idea, but its worth it. I see.
You’re right, they don’t have any idea what that draft pick might turn out to be.
But then, neither do you.
In 2010: Neshek will be back, Bonser will be back and Crain will be with the team. Also, Delaney and Mijares will likely be MLB-ready, and Slama in their footsteps…
Neshek will be back…maybe.
Bonser will be back…maybe.
Crain will be with the team…most likely.
Delaney, Mijares, Slama…maybe.
There would always be room for an effective reliever in 2010. If not, he would be very tradeable.
For what it’s worth- #20-25 picks 2003-05
18 picks:
Major leaguers:
Garza
Ellsbury
Billingsly
Cordero
Perkins
Aardsma
Hughes
Wood
others: Plouff, Moses, Waldrop.
In my mind I don’t trade two years of Cruz for: Garza, Ellsbury, Billingaly, Perkins and Wood. 8 chances of 18 to make a bad deal, four of 18 (Garza, Ellsbury, Wood and Billingsly) to make a real bad deal.
Just some info to try to fix the value of our draft pick. In my mind, it’s more than I first believed intuitively.
Of course we don’t know what the draft choice will produce, Chief. The difference? I haven’t made silly assumptions. It’s worth the risk to you, but you can’t seem to articulate what that risk is, and I don’t recall your effort to quantify it. Did I miss that part of your argument? COnvince me that it would have been worth the risk, that’s all. A 40% chance that the pick is another Shooter Hunt-caliber prospect? More? Les? Is Cruz worth Shooter Hunt to you? I don’t know the answer to that.
But then, neither do you.
I meant 5 (not 
of 18 to make a bad deal.
Sorry.
Chief,
objectively:
look at Cruz’ career numbers:
4.00 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 2.01 K/BB, 9.35 K/9
and look at Ayala’s career numbers:
3.34 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 2.91 K/BB, 5.83 K/9
Given the facts that Ayala was hurt in 2006 and had a few things to worry about in 2008 including: recovering from being shot in the arm in a hunting accident, being handled divorce papers by his wife and had the promise that he’d be the closer negated by the Nats, tell me: who has the potential to pitch better for the Twins in 2009?
Heinie, that’s instructive to some extent. It fails somewhat because a consistent argument is made on this board that the Twins are bad at drafting, and therefore the pick has discounted value relative to certain other teams’ picks. The Twins would have picked a Matt Moses, not a Chad Billingsley in their minds.
I’ve maintained it is too much to gamble for Cruz, but not a complete no-brainer either. The Twins think it doesn’t make sense, and I think they may be sensible about this.
It’s worth the risk to you, but you can’t seem to articulate what that risk is, and I don’t recall your effort to quantify it.
Nor can you articulate your objections. Instead, we get this:
So Dave B and rghrbek, tell all of us about the draft pick we give up for Cruz, OK? Uh huh, a high School prospect…you sure about that now Dave B? Dave?
I thought so. You have no idea, but its worth it. I see.
and this:
You’re going to confuse the issue with those pesky details, thrylos. Cruz would have come in here and blown batters away, with a WHIP of .42. All of Crede’s 36 HR’s on top of it? Don’t pee in the punch bowl with your nasty realistic expectations.
Two posters made comments, one very benign, that they thought the Twins had made a mistake in not signing Cruz. One included a pretty nice analysis of how he came to that conclusion.
Instead of merely disagreeing, you immediately jump down their throat, attacking not only their opinion, but apparently their very right to question a move made by the Twins, which is ‘out of bounds’ as far as some of you are concerned.
Can’t you just post your opinion, without attacking everyone who dares question a single thing done by the Twins?
And while you’re at it, maybe you could avoid attacking someone for not knowing exactly what a draft pick will turn out to be, when nobody–including you–can possbibly have ANY IDEA what that pick will ultimately be.
Some people think a first round pick was worth the chance to possbily upgrade the bullpen. Get over it.
Check out Howard’s blog.
look at Cruz’ career numbers:
4.00 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 2.01 K/BB, 9.35 K/9
and look at Ayala’s career numbers:
3.34 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 2.91 K/BB, 5.83 K/9
Given the facts that Ayala was hurt in 2006 and had a few things to worry about in 2008 including: recovering from being shot in the arm in a hunting accident, being handled divorce papers by his wife and had the promise that he’d be the closer negated by the Nats, tell me: who has the potential to pitch better for the Twins in 2009?
Show me Cruz’ last two years, and age, and trends.
Show me Ayala’s last two years, and age, and trends.
Neither is a sure thing. IMO, Cruz is the far better bet, and a better fit for helping the Twins late in close games.
You have not been the subject of a personal attack, Chief, and neither has anyone else. Arguments have been questioned, even ridiculed when they are silly.
Get over it.
Chief:
“Cruz is the far better bet, and a better fit for helping the Twins late in close games.”
Here’s a perfect example of an opinion you and I share, an example of something the Twins have done that is questionable to both of us.
Are you sure you read the posts?
So, your statements that I have no opinions-only attacks, and an intolerance for disagreement with the Twins? That’s pretty much a load of crap coming off your typewriter, my friend.
if only the Wolves could think and evaluate like the Twins we’d have a much happier Twin Cities basketball community!!!
OK Let’s look it like this (and you certainly don’t have to. Very roughly:
Ayala,Perkins,Duensing and 4M for two years (plus an option)of Cruz.
I don’t do it unless . . .
Cruz is the missing link to a deep run into the playoffs this or next year.
Tough call so I’m OK with BS’s call
A reasonable line of thinking, Heinie. San Francisco is a team that has made some aggressive, high-risk moves that have backfired. The Twins benefited from one of those infamous short-sighted decisions and we get to enjoy Liriano and Nathan as a result. All teams make mistakes, but we’re fortunate to have a management team in place with the Twins that exercises a sometimes maddening level of caution. Some argue it has us an opportunity to celebrate a pennant or two. I doubt this.
. Some argue it has us an opportunity to celebrate a pennant or two. I doubt this.
well, it may or it may have not… but the problem with this front office has historically (since Andy Mcphail left) been its tendency towards half-rear-end solutions that don’t pan out. Other than that (and they spent about $20 mil last year for them, enough to rent a year of Manny, for example, last year) it’s all ok. But they gotta learn that lesson. You either go for it with quality or keep it to spend it when it makes sense…
Ayala,Perkins,Duensing and 4M for two years (plus an option)of Cruz.
I must be missing something…how would signing Cruz have cost the Twins “Ayala, Perkins, (and) Duensing”?
By my reconing, it needn’t have cost them more than $X dollars and the first round pick.
They could have still signed Ayala if they so wished.
thrylos, I agree with you to a certain point about the post-MacPhail tendencies towards half-baked solutions, but I think you understate the growing severity of the conditions this group faced. For almost two decades, the FO has had to use inexpensive stopgap additions for some holes. They have had their fair share of blunders, there’s no defending them in that regard. The litany of failures is repeatedly cited as evidence of far-reaching incompetence by so many. They have also had a ton of success with their overall strategy and deserve more credit than some give them.
The main thing that I believe gets lost in the discussions is the distinct possibility that we just entered, this season, a new era. We reached a higher level of talent with last year’s dramatic infusion. I could be completely off, but I somehow think we’re back to an era where we’ll see one or two dramatic moves, like the ones MacPhail executed in ‘91. Lots of people think Cruz would be such a move, and I think the Twins FO disagrees.
Can’t you just post your opinion, without attacking everyone who dares question a single thing done by the Twins?
Chief, you are one of the last people that should be complaing about personal attacks.
I’m another.
NO kidding! When he played for the Red Sox’s when they played the Rockies in the World Series we all wanted Gange to come in the game cause we knew then we would have rocked him.
The sad thing is that most of you are the same guys yelling for Crede! Boy he is special!
Chief-
I’m attempting to set up an apples to apples comparison.
I presume that signing Cruz means that we don’t sign Ayala thus the loss of Ayala part of the model (or keep Ayala and increase the dollar loss).
I posit (again I’m throwing this out) that the 23rd pick that we lose=Perkins for six years (see my 5:20 post). For the sake of comparison I say that Perkins for 4 years plus Duensing for six equals Perkins for six.
So we lose Perkins and Duensing (or the equivalent), Alaya (or 1.3 M) and 4.3 M (I won”t bore you with the math).
We gain Cruz for 2 years plus a 3.5M option for year 3.
If you accept my model, I think not pulling the trigger is reasonable, but a close call.
Heinie Minutiae,
Your model is very difficult for me to grasp, but the problem may be me.
Nick Punto-Simply the Best!!!
Just to set the Record straight
From 1993-2008 the Twins have drafted twenty players in the first round. Of the twenty, twelve were signed out of high school including three out of the last four picks.
So far, seven out of twenty first round picks have made it to the Twins major league roster.
Will there ever be a time where Bill Smith decides, THIS IS OUR TIME, WE ARE GOING FOR A CHAMPIONSHIP. The only hole left on this team is the bullpen. Bill Smith chose to address this issue on the cheap by signing another reconstruction project Luis Ayala. Would the bullpen still be a question mark with both Ayala and Juan Cruz in the pen? My question is WHEN WILL THE FUTURE FINALY ARRIVE?
In 1987 and 91, Andy MacPhail decided the time had arrived. Not worrying about whether he was getting a bargain or not, Andy brought in Don Baylor during the mid season of 87, Chili Davis, Mike Pagliarulo and of course Jack Morris were brought in to make another run at a World Series in 91. The current Twins team needs far less from its GM then the 91 team did. I just don’t think Bill Smith has it in him to take a real shot like MacPhale did. I hope that I am wrong.
punto 0-5 with a walk against canada…see the signs??
Heinie: Is it possible you’re overthinking this?
It would’ve cost the Twins their first round pick and money.
No more, no less.
What that first round pick turns out to be, 3-4 years from now, is anyone’s guess.
I agree losing that pick is a stiff price to pay for a reliever. IMO, this year circumstances for the Twins combined to make that a worthy sacrifice.
Circumstances: Cruz (given health) would upgrade the bullpen, almost without question. The bullpen looks like it could be a continual toothache this year, and one that could potentially derail a promising season. Money’s available, and the dollar cost wasn’t terribly significant in today’s MLB economic structure. Cruz is costing around $3M per season, which is less than the average MLB player makes. Even on the Twins, the per player average is pushing $2.5M.
Fairly easy call, IMO.
