Postgame update: Nathan, Span, Perkins, Valencia
Posted on July 27th, 2009 – 11:23 PMBy Joe Christensen
Joe Nathan needed six pitches to get through the ninth inning. A.J. Pierzynski and Carlos Quentin both swung at the first pitch. Denard Span said Quentin’s ball wouldn’t have cleared the fence, but what a catch.
(*) Glen Perkins quelled concerns about his left shoulder and his toughness, holding the White Sox to three runs over seven innings.
“I think that was a little monkey that I had to get off my back,” Perkins said. “Coming in against these guys, this is a team we have to beat. I think I needed to prove to myself and prove to my team that I can get the job done, so it was definitely a little extra motivation, and I don’t think that will let up from here on out.”
(*) Heard today that Oakland has asked for Class AAA Rochester 3B Danny Valencia in return for SS Orlando Cabrera. Twins would never do that, but it was a reminder that Valencia’s name probably comes up frequently in trade talks. Valencia didn’t play for Rochester tonight, making me suspicious, but I checked and Valencia was sick after going 0-for-6 on Sunday.
(*) Lots more Twins news in the game story, sider and notes.
145 Responses to "Postgame update: Nathan, Span, Perkins, Valencia"
I hope you meant Miguel Cabrera.
Danny Valencia for Orlando Cabrera? God no.
Did I read T-Mouse say before tonight’s game that #6-9 needed to score two runs for us to have a shot at winning the thing?
I wouldn’t be crowing if….it all didn’t lead back to AJ… the guy who has never known his proper place on any team he’s played for.
Go Twins.
Cabrera is hitting .278 with 4 bombs. Big effing deal. Why is this franchise so obsessed with marginal players?
Something I don’t understand. We always hear that the FO doesn’t want to mortgage the future by giving up top prospects - but if our farm system is SOOOOO great - then it should be easy to replenish it. If we have so many great prospects, where are they? Why haven’t they been called up? We have some of the worst players in MLB statistically that are stealing money. You can’t have it both ways. Where is all this young pitching? Worry about 2011 in 2011. Did guys like Billy Smith ever play the game above high school? What is their baseball background? Do the Pohlads know what a 4-6-3 double play is?
Valencia is better than Cabrera. Just bring him up.
Perk looked good once he settled down. He actually through some off speed stuff that looked good! If he can do this consistantly that would really help. Cabrera for Valencia? This would be like taking 1 step forward and 2 steps back.
Frank, my thoughts exactly.
Of course they asked for Valencia and of course the Twins said no. The A’s were just aiming high. Cabrera really doesn’t have that much value as he a free agent at seasons end without draft pick compensation. Danny Valencia. Bahh!!!
This would be like taking 1 step forward and 2 steps back.
I think you need to add a few more steps back.
Get Sanchez. Give the Pirates a lot of cash from all the payroll savings from this year’s roster.
I think AJ gets a bit of bum’s rap. In my experience he is a generous guy, as well as a good, feisty ball player who was a big part of a World Series winner. A friend of mine knows him and he gave her like six tickets behind home plate, about twelve rows up, for a Sunday Yankees game. Mussina started for the Yanks, so you know how that turned out. but from all I know, in person he is a good guy.
“BTW, Castillo is hitting over .300 with a .398 OBP.
“There was no reason to let him go”
There were two reasons.
His left leg and his right leg.
Castillo might have lost both to amputations if he played on the Dome turf much longer.
I’m looking at this #1 Stomach Rule ad to the right and it’s such a farce. The chick’s obviously eight months pregnant int he first pick, then obviously no longer pregnant in the second pic. What’s the message there, get an abortion???
Bill Brasky;
You are right on “RIGHT ON.”
Dear Bill Smith,
Confucius Say:
It is better to try and fail,
Than fail to try!
I really wonder what the Pirates are asking for Sanchez? I have the feeling that they are asking the moon for him, since they had designs on signing him to an extension. Players that a team really want to keep, maybe aren’t untouchable, but I am pretty sure that the starting bid is pretty dang high. The salary I rather doubt is the hang-up, I am sure that it is the players they are asking for in return. Everyone seems to forget what Seattle was asking last year for Beltre, and where would that leave us right now?
With Slowey out, I am pretty sure that Sanchez and pretty much any other middle infielder is taking a back seat to pitching now.
Anyway, I really hope something shakes loose, but I have my doubts.
What about Valencia plus a couple throw-ins for Sanchez?
Pretty sure they want to keep Valencia for next year. Rather doubt that Crede is going to re-sign with the Twins, but I wouldn’t be against it. Doubtful that “throw-in’s” would get it done.
The Twins don’t have any pitching depth left to make a trade with, and I don’t see anything else that is truly a position of strength other than the outfield. For some reason, I just can’t see Smith letting go of the major piece of the Garza trade, by trading basically Garza and Valencia for Sanchez.
If you trade Valencia for Sanchez, you fix the 2B hole, but then who plays 3B next year? Do you really swap one problem for another?
If Valencia played 2B or SS, then yes, call him up now. However, he has only played a single game at SS in his entire career. So, if you call him up now, he’s a backup to Crede. As much as I’d love him to supplant Buscher in that role, that one move ain’t gonna make that much difference.
It’s hard to believe, but, I think the Twins should hang on to Buscher. He actually plays a decent 1st base and would be fine backing up Justin. Cuddyer should be kept away from first.
Brendan Harris plays a good 3rd base, though without the pop of Joe Crede.
With that, I hope the Twins are talking to Crede about next year already.
But, I think Crede will move on if the front office doesn’t do something to indicate they are serious about winning.
Trading Valencia would be a bad move.
But of course, most moves Smith has made have been bad.
So it could happen…
Did the news of wanting Valencia come out of the A’s camp or Twins?? Because at this point in Billy Boy Smith’s tenure, I wouldn’t be shocked if he fibbed a bit about what teams want, just so he can go ahead and say he tried, but just couldn’t make a deal because they wanted too much.
I’m a conspiracy theorist, I know.
You needed Span to tell you Quentin’s ball wouldn’t have cleared the fence? If you didn’t notice it live, one replay would’ve easily confirmed that fact.
Still, a one-out double would not have been pretty in that situation. What a fantastic catch by Span!
I knew from my seat - first base side - the ball wasn’t going to go out -if anything it would dropped for a double.
Catch - was ok - I’ve seen better.
Heard today that Oakland has asked for Class AAA Rochester 3B Danny Valencia in return for SS Orlando Cabrera.
So apparently Oakland isn’t paying attention to the whole “Joe Crede is likely gone at the end of the year thing.”
So are they overvaluing Cabrera or undervaluing Valencia?
I wouldn’t be shocked if he fibbed a bit about what teams want, just so he can go ahead and say he tried
*sigh*
And here’s where we hit that point. The fans demand more insight into trade talks…and when they get it they don’t believe any of it anyway.
Valencia ain’t that good. Send him now for Sanchez but not Orlando……..
Who needs Valencia and what makes you think he’s that good……….
“So are they overvaluing Cabrera or undervaluing Valencia?”
A bit of both, I think. The Twins could get something much better than Cabrera for Valencia.
I won’t matter who plays second base if the starters don’t pitch. They currently rank 12th in the AL. The offense ranks 7th. Liriano and Baker need to bone up.
And stop wearing those gawdawful blue jerseys…
hahahahahahahahaha
if that wasn’t Smith’s response, he should be fired. You don’t open up a long term hole at one position, to fix another for 2 months. Was that a serious proposal? Really? Is anyone that stupid that they’d make sure they don’t have a 3B next year, so they can acquire a pretty mediocre 2B for 2 months?
Come on.
Valencia may or may not be more valuable to the Twins than other teams (due to the terrible, terrible job they’ve done drafting infielders), but that’s ridiculous.
T: while I don’t think the Twins are lying, I’m sure they WANT it out there, so they can either excuse not making the deal (the other teams wanted too much) or justify the decent prospect they trade out instead (btw, Seth first put this in writing, but I thought it b4 reading his comments, but I should give him credit for first saying it). The TWins never talk about trade talks, but this news leaks? The only reason for that to leak is spin.
“Is anyone that stupid that they’d make sure they don’t have a 3B next year, so they can acquire a pretty mediocre 2B for 2 months?”
To be fair, Cabrera is a shortstop. It’s still a terrible trade though.
I can’t imagine there’s that much demand for Cabrera that Beane really expects to get a prospect like Valencia in return.
I was just looking on baseball reference and they’ve got a second baseman in Rochester batting 340 with and 827 OPS…
Oh, never mind, that’s Alexi Casilla.
I’d think Cabrera would play 2B here, but I suppose it is possible he’d play SS here. Punto is better at 2B than SS, but Harris is better at SS than 2B…..so I don’t know.
But either way, the fact that the Twins leaked this news tells me they are in full spin mode…..
mww: But that doesn’t really resolve the issue I point out does it?
Fans complain there’s no transparency or communication during the trade process. And here we finally get some news and now all people want to do is complain that they’re being lied to and spun.
Like I’ve said in the past, this is why if I’m Bill Smith…I don’t bother communicating trade talks unless they’re actually done. Because my supposed fan base has already shown me that any communication I DO provide is simply going to be dismissed as lies and spin.
So why bother giving up any leverage by making the trade talks public if there’s no actual benefit on the PR front?
But given the reaction yesterday on the Strib to the news that the Twins were pursuing Cabrera (read: Hardly positive), I do find it funny that now that we actually have news as to what it would take people suddenly are turning against Smith…
Joe didn’t say where he heard it. was it sid and reusse at the water cooler? most of these rumors have no basis if fact but are floated around for something to talk about. something that would never happen on here where all things are true and factual. there was also a note yesterday that smith and beane hadn’t even talked so what’s true what’s crap?
on the other hand i heard that the pirates want the gardenhire kid for sanchez. smith said no way.
What makes all of you think Crede is gone for next year? At best, he is a very good part-time player as he seems to be hurt so much. Why would he be so wanted on the market? Valencia=prospect : Sanchez=proven pro. That decision should be very easy.
If Valencia is included in a Sanchez trade, then we can simply move Sanchez to third base next year.
He’s far from a great defender at third, but he did win a batting title playing primarily third base for the Pirates in 2006.
Or we could always sign Chone Figgins, bat him leadoff, and put Span in the 2-hole… but that won’t happen. 
I’m not saying I hope the Twins send Valencia to Pittsburgh, I’m just pointing out that should it happen, Sanchez played third base for the most successful season of his career…
nor do your comments address my issue:
they NEVER talk about trades, but somehow this comes out? This is full spin.
If I was BS, I’d never discuss who wants what, or what I’m pursuing. I’d prove I’m trying to make the team better, by, you know, actually making the team better (or I’d fail and be fired, in an organization that believes in accountability).
I don’t think they are lying, I think Beane may have brought up Valencia. But, the fact that they did come public, this one time, has to have some purpose behind it, doesn’t it?
Um, people have been turning against BS since it turned out Young wasn’t what some people thought he’d be, and they got nothing much in return for one of the great pitchers this team (or any team) has ever had. They turned against him when he didn’t do anything significant (acquiring a washe dup relief pitcher that wasn’t good is a self fulfilling propecy of doom) last year. They turned against him when he signed a terrible relief pitcher this offseason (Ayala, realy, that was his best idea?). They continue to doubt him and his abilities, because so far, he’s been pretty much wrong on most every thing that has publicly happened (Crede may or may not have been a good signing, but I’ll give him a pass on that one).
They also have turned against him (I assume, I’ve only listened twice) because on his radio show he’s condescending and boring and doesn’t seem to have any enthusiasm (and refuses to admit mistakes, which hardly makes him unique).
This is a chance to do something to change his image (and performance), but if you believe that most every move he’s made so far was bad, I’m not sure why anyone would trust him to do well this time (or do anything meaningful, it’s not in the TWins DNA to do so during the season).
Steve, then who plays 2B next year? If you create a hole at 3B, to get a 2B, you then need to find a 3B. I’m not saying don’t do it, but if you are the TWins, you then need a plan to fix 3B (and Crede is a Boras client, which is why many believe he’ll be gone, and, if you are the Twins, do you re-sign him anyway? he’ll want a longer term deal this time, and he’s been hurt a lot. There is no one in the system to play 3B if it isn’t Valencia, at least not at this point.)
Maybe, just maybe the Twins are promoting some of these rumors in order to show both Oakland and Pittsburg that they have options(Cabrera or Sanchez)in an attempt to drive down the asking price.
I don’t think they are lying, I think Beane may have brought up Valencia. But, the fact that they did come public, this one time, has to have some purpose behind it, doesn’t it?
Yeah, somebody within the org saw some the stories yesterday about Cabrera being a possibility, and when it hit the point where Valencia’s name came up and the talks stalled shared that info…you know…to sum it up.
I’d prove I’m trying to make the team better, by, you know, actually making the team better
This is the problem. People say Smith never tries to help, but then they demand proof that he’s trying in the form of something being done.
Doing is not trying…you can try you damndest to actually complete a trade, but if they’re asking for players you can’t afford to give up then you can’t DO anything now can you?
The only way to prove anything is being tried is to provide some information now and then that gives an idea what was being looked at.
And that’s been the problem with Strib goers for as long as I can remember, they don’t grasp the concept that “do” =/= “try”.
I agree T… I don’t think anyone can question Mr. Smith’s efforts. I have no doubt that he is spending a ton of time on the phone these days. It’s not easy to make a trade, much less a good trade.
<i. I’m not sure why anyone would trust him to do well this time
Because we hit this point in the offseason when the everybody was begging Smith to sign Crede for whatever it would take, claiming that they’d be fine with him getting that 7 mil contract with 4 mil in incentives…
And then Smith came out with his 1 mil + incentives siging (or was it 2 mil) and surprised everybody.
Not to mention Smith DID show some signs of changing mentality by trading from a strength (pitching at the time) for a weakness (power hitting). Unfortunately Young hasn’t turned out as well as he had been projected to.
Whatever the plans are for 2010 - it will be without Crede. He’s way too brittle and at his advancing age, the nicks and pains will probably only continue. And as noted above, he’s a Boras client and will try to get $7-10 million next year, maybe a 2 year contract. All things the Twins won’t do for a part time player.
I think 3rd Base next year will be covered somehow between Harris, Valencia….or maybe but less likely Sanchez. The bigger gap here is up the middle. That’s where we really need Sanchez or something of similar caliber - NOT Cabrera!
The guy I would have traded for Sanchez up until the Slowey announcement was Liriano. But now we need every potential starter we can get. Would be great to trade Delmon for Freddy straight up, but I don’t think they are that gullable.
this was in mlb trade RUMOR!
“The Twins and Braves have checked in on Freddy Sanchez, but some executives believe the Pirates will have trouble moving him without contributing to the $8.1MM option for next year that’s likely to vest.”
this was from a pirate scrib, so if the twins would pay his full salary a lesser prospect or prospects and if the pirates paid part of his cantract a better prospect or prospects.
this one appears to be more about money than prospects.
mike-The Twins are in full spin,who says they leaked anything.You have predetermined that the Twins always spin at the trade deadline as an excuse not to move and then except data that reinforces your conclusion.Rather convenient!This is the big leagues not fantasy leagues!
I’ve made that point about do not equaling trying over and over here. I don’t care if he’s trying. Nick Punto is trying. The only thing that actually matters is succeeding or not.
You missed the word “well” in that quote T. He didn’t do well in the Young trade. Like I said, its not about trying to do well, it’s about doing well.
A GM should be judged by the success of his team and his actions, not by how hard he tries or not. I’m 100% certain that BS is trying to make the team better (for now and the long run). I’m not 100% certain that he will succeed, based on his efforts and outcomes so far. I’m judging performance here, not effort. I’m not making any claim that he isn’t trying. I’m claiming that, so far, he’s not succeeding. If you or others want to point to the Crede signing as a success, I’m cool with that (as I said earlier). But, I’d hope that you also acknowledge that the Young trade, Gomez trade, signing of Ayala, acquiring Guradado, and not acquiring a 2B yet this year, are all failures in outcomes (not in effort).
I’ve also repeatedly on these boards that no GM (unless given tons of money) can fix a mess of a minor league system and MLB team in 18 months, and that Smith deserves at least one more offseason to show what he can do.
geno, not true. I’ve said that the Twins usually don’t say anything about trades. I have not pre-determined that they always spin things. I’m saying that this time, for some reason, they did say something publicly (there is an assumption here that Joe got this from a Twins source, which I think is a reasonable assumption, but may be wrong). I then concluded that the most likely reason it leaked this one time was that they were in spin mode. Other possibilities are that they are now going to start openly talking about trades, to change their PR processes. I don’t think that is as likely as the spin conclusion. Other possibilities is that someone in the Twins took it upon themselves to say this, and there is no change in PR process (this is actually my 2nd theory). Another possiblity is that it was a more casual conversation, and that it wasn’t meant to come out at all. I don’t buy that conclusion, I think the Twins are too well run for this to be the most logical conclusion.
I’m sure there are other conclusions that can be reached. Those are the four I’ve thought of (with the assumption it came from the TWins). Others can certainly reach a different conclusion - I have no problem with that. But, if people want to rebut my arguments, I’d hope they offer up their conclusions also. I’d hope they attack my logic or my conclusions, not me as a person. But, I’ve had that hope since I joined these boards, and for the most part have remained disappointed….
The twins are in full spin mode. they also murdered JFK and faked the moon landing.
Why don’t they just call his a** up now if they arent going to trade him… he can play the 4 days a week crede is on the bench.
and the next poster proves my point….
This is a perfect time to reflect on the greatness of the Twins farm system. Of course the A’s would love to trade an aging, no-defense shortstop for a young, up-and-coming, top-rated third base talent. Especially when he was taught how to play ball by the Twins organization. Every team wants guys who came up through the Twins farm system. Twins fans, though, want to trade aging, mediocre guys in return for all of our prospects. Please don’t do want the fans want! Keep our prospects at home.
Have I just overlooked it or has D. Young not been mentioned in any trade talks? I would think he would have SOME value to SOMEBODY.
Valencia for Sanchez is reasonable. Valencia for Cabrera? I say pass. Bring Valencia up if Crede’s problems continue so Harris can go back to mid infield. I don’t think anyone was suggesting to bring Valencia up to play SS or 2b.
MIKE-The big picture goes back to the Johan speculation and trade.Posters are still saying we should have taken the Yanks or Red Sox package when no one knows for sure if they were ever on the table.No GM is going to telegraph his next move!
interesting!
“I can’t keep up with all of it myself, and we’re the ones who are making the decision,” says Blue Jays general manager J.P. Ricciardi. “It’s crazy what’s going on out there. There are rumors, atop of rumors, atop of rumors, atop of rumors.
“We know what the truth is, and we can laugh about it. But when it gets it out there, now you’ve got to explain to the player why it’s not true. Why that team never called. You spend half of the time putting out fires and never getting anything done.”
Is anyone else confused on why Oakland would want Valencia? They just got Brett Wallace from St Louis, who is one of the top 3B prospects if not the top 3B prospect in all of baseball.
As the season goes on, it looks more like Crede is here as a one-year stopgap measure at third base. I believe Valencia will be given a very good chance to win the third base job in spring training.
That said, I really like Joe Crede as a ballplayer and as a guy. It’s no wonder that he was a key part of the White Sox championship team a few years back.
Most people don’t think that Wallace will ever be able to play 3B defensively at the big league level. Probably a potential DH.
What Seth said. Wallace is to fielding what Casilla is to OBP. But as a hitter, Wallace could be a very good DH - hence his trade out of the National League (and why his value is lower, but still highish, than it was at the beginning of the year).
Let’s talk about Casilla. Last year he was fabulous before getting that hand injury. He had a terrific winter league, hit well in spring training and hit .340 in the minors this year. Last year he seemed to have Span like selection at the plate and was just a tough out. His first time up this year his pitch selection was crappy. He is now finally taking some walks but just can’t seem to get anything going. The few balls he hits hard are caught. I believe he just needs a couple good games in a row to get out of his own head and get a little confidence going. How you get those couple games when you are in a funk is a different matter.
I want to quote one of the great bloggers on the planet, and say it applies to me on these blogs:
“Now, look, one of the points I try to make on this blog and in virtually all of my other writing is that I don’t know anything about anything. I mouth off my opinions because it’s fun and because people pay me to do it and because over the years I’ve come to know a lot of people who ARE smart about various things and are kind enough to fill me in on their views and knowledge. But I’m always aware that every opinion I offer could be wildly and tragically wrong.”
from Joe Posnanski, and applied to me as well…
MWW: I am just giving you a little ribbing (should have put /sarc). Large organizations (or governments for that matter) certainly understand the utility of “anonymous sources” and “media leaks”
That being said, I DO think the FO is trying to pull off a deal and that their ability to succeed (or do “well”) isn’t wholly within their control.
of course, I don’t get paid…..
Mike-
Why are you so concerned about this?
from the pitt post:
http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/09209/986831-63.stm?cmpid=pirates.xml
No one’s ability to succeed is fully in their control, that’s part of what makes successful people worthy of admiration. Punto isn’t fully in control of his success, it is also largely dependent on the quality of the pithces he faces. Same with Mauer. But, it’s obvious that one is better than the other (regardless of how hard either one tries). That’st he point I’ve been unsuccesful at communicating about Smith. Maybe someday I’ll take more than 5 seconds to think about my posts…..
and again, other than attacking me as a person, I love it when people disagree and engage in discourse…
concerned about what? I’m just killing time during boring conference calls….
If you mean, concerned about the Twins being better, I’m not sure. I’ve never been able to figure out why I care if the Twins win or not….
“Is anyone else confused on why Oakland would want Valencia? They just got Brett Wallace from St Louis, who is one of the top 3B prospects if not the top 3B prospect in all of baseball.”
The A’s are the biggest wheelers and dealers in baseball. I’m sure they have no problem taking in an asset that they can turn around and trade for another asset down the road. Cabrera is worthless to them.
If Wilson and Sanchez leave and not replaced by veterans, all of the Pirates’ projected everyday players for 2010 except catcher Ryan Doumit will be making the majors’ minimum wage of roughly $400,000.*hope I got it right this time.
Wow. How hard would it be to be a Pirate’s fan?
dang it. so close. At leat I know what I did wrong….
Grudzielanek was 1/3 for the GCL Twins yesterday. He was hitting in the No. 2 hole.
I wouldn’t get too bent out of shape about Valencia. For one, the Twins are not going to trade him. It’s almost unanimous throughout the organization that he’s the 3rd baseman of the future. Second, it’s only natural that Billy Beane and others would ask for Valencia. They wouldn’t be doing their jobs if they didn’t. Given that he’s an untouchable, it won’t be a deal breaker for a non-superstar like Orlando Cabrera.
Despite getting Wallace from the Cards, Billy Beane is always looking a few miles down the road to his next trade. There’s a really good chance that both Wallace and Valencia will be everyday big leaguer’s. Beane, then, will probably determine which one of them is better and then trade him in a couple years.
this one appears to be more about money than prospects.
To me it sounds more like the Pirates want their cake (the better prospect) and eat it too (team takes on full salary)
So the Twins (and Braves) are saying “Listen, you can’t have both. Either eat some salary and get a better prospect, or we’ll take on the salary but hand over slightly less talent.”
I’m not saying this proves I’m correct, but Aaron Gleeman (in the comments section of his blog) just posted pretty much the same thing I have here - that the Twins leaked this to use as an excuse for not making a deal….
A GM should be judged by the success of his team and his actions, not by how hard he tries or not.
And in the case of Smith, he took the advisement of his scouts into consideration and made a decision.
There is ALWAYS risks involved when trading young talent, because you’re going for an unknown and have to trust your scouts more than just looking at who they are and saying “Yes that’s a good player.”
But the Young/Garza trade was a smart trade. AT THE TIME the Twins had a glut of pitching and little in the way of young power righty hitters.
But the big one that bothers me is this stupid allegation that Garza/Bartlett’s attitudes contributed to the swap…when the player coming in (Young) was supposedly just as big a troublemaker over in Tampa (how many times did people bring up the bat toss during those first days he was here?)
Good for Gleeman. I’m sorry to see he’s become as bitter and jaded as some of the Stribbers.
1. The Twins aren’t going to trade Valencia for Cabrera. We know that. The Twins know that. Billy Beane knows that. Why is this even being discussed? Who’d Joe C get this ‘tidbit’ from?
2. I hope my boss is as forgiving as some posters here if I come to him month after month, year after year, and tell him, “Hey, I know I haven’t actually DONE anything. But, y’know, I’m TRYING real hard. And as we all know…trying=/=doing.”
No mystery here.
We traded our head-case (Garza) for their head-case (Young). They won.
If you immediately and automatically rule out the possibility that the Twins would leak, and even possibly make up something like the Valencia thing, then you probably still believe in Santa Claus and the Easter Rabbit.
what are you saying?
Oh, and I completely agree with Gleeman. The idea of Valencia for Cabrera is silly, so where in the world did it come from.
But, who knows. I have faith that Bill Smith is working so gosh darn hard, that he will likely pass out from exhaustion and sleep through the deadline, meaning no trades for the Twins.
bj….are you telling me those two do not exist?
I’m saying that I don’t understand the disbelief some have that the Twins would put something out there for spin.
I dont blame the A’s aiming high for valencia, thats their job. Ofcourse, they’ll settle for less closer to the deadline thats how negotiations work. Aim high, talk them into a “lower prospect” they might actually target
And yes, DrDon. That’s exactly what I’m saying. I didn’t know that either until I saw Billy Bob Thornton in “Bad Santa.”
Has Kelly Johnson fallen that far off the planet that he’s not a viable target? Even struggling he’s better than what we have - may be a more realistic option.
Whatever the plans are for 2010 - it will be without Crede. He’s way too brittle and at his advancing age, the nicks and pains will probably only continue. And as noted above, he’s a Boras client and will try to get $7-10 million next year, maybe a 2 year contract. All things the Twins won’t do for a part time player.
There’s NO WAY Crede get’s that kind of money from any club and even super-agent Boras knows that. This was supposed to be a “I can stay on the field” season for Joe so he could garner that final big contract. Alas though, he may be “not playing” himself into another short, incentive-laden deal with the Twins.
That way they could bring Valencia into the fold next season with Crede as mentor and we’d have a better bench option @ 3B with all those absences. Someone here with a better understanding of where Valencia is at in his journey to the bigs might help enlighten me here.
Eddie, It doesn’t matter what Boras ‘knows’ about Crede’s value. His MO is to promote his clients and to act like they are worth top-dollar no matter what. I’m no GM, but I would never plan on keeping a Boras client past free agency unless I knew I was going to offer him way more than he was worth.
T: not everyone thought that trade was smart when it was made. Some stats heads looked at the decline as he moved up, his SO/BB rates, and his ground ball rates, and said it was likely a bad trade. The concept was clearly a good concept (trade from a strength to fill a weakness), the execution was questioned even at the time of the trade, by enough people, that I couldn’t say it was clearly the right thing to do at the time.
that said, I can certainly appreciate your point of view, even if you insist on not reacting in kind to people that disagree with you….
Saam,
Of course it’s an agent’s responsibility to get the most for his client and they may certainly try.
But my point is that there may certainly be interest from other clubs, but Boras (and frankly, Crede) know that the multi-year, high-dollar contract they were hoping for next season isn’t going to happen and it’s not all that far-fetched to believe that we couldn’t extend him to another similar contract he received this season. Just throwing it out there.
The reason that Valencia’s name is been mentioned is because after the trade deadline has passed, (with nothing being done by the Twins FO) they will call up him up in September.
It will be “just like making a trade”…
Eddie, I agree with you. I was just saying that if I were in Smith’s position I would’t count on Crede being here next year.
mike wants wins,
Per your 8:43 post
“Punto is better at 2B than SS, but Harris is better at SS than 2B…..”
I think you have shown most of the equation that puts Harris’ butt on the bench. The full equation should read:
Punto is better at 2B than SS, but Harris is better at SS than 2B…..
But Punto is better at SS than Harris.
Paul
You forgot the part about Punto being better than Casilla at 2b.
I know they want to play Casilla to give him this last chance to stick with the club. It’s just hard to watch with the team in the race for the Central.
saam,
The “race” for the Al Central is more like a pubcrawl. Last team still standing wins.
Paul
By what definition is Punto better than Harris at SS? Defensive ratings show Harris outplaying Punto defensively this year at SS. Or did you mean offense? Ummmm Harris has an OPS of .679 vs Punto and his .571 OPS.
It’s not even close.
Punto is outplaying Casilla. Harris is out playing Punto. When Crede comes back Harris should man SS and Punto 2nd. Shouldn’t be hard to figure out.
How is Punto outplaying Casilla? When he gets on he gets picked off. When Casilla gets on he steals a base. Neither one gets on enough. Neither one is playing gold glove defense. Give Casilla as many at bats as Punto and he will outhit him. Should avoid playing them both at the same time but I will still prefer Casilla at the plate. More upside.
JP, for me, I think I’m reflecting Gardy’s view, not necessarily my view, on Harris vs Punto on D…
Sounds like Sanchez is going somewhere by the deadline. Twins have no excuse on this…
It would be nice to make a great trade(get something for nothing), but that doesn’t guarantee a thing. We need to get good quality start, be solid in the bullpen, and hit well with two outs. If we do that we’ll probably win our (weak) division wheather or not we make any trades.
Wow, AJ gave FREE tickets to a friend of his. What a saint!
does anyone else think that Casilla should be a part of any trade for a middle-infielder? especially to a team like Pittsburgh who is playing for the future?
is something like Casilla, Duensing/Mulvey/Manship/etc… and an OF like Joe Benson or Rene Tosoni enough to get something done? Or are they gonna want more?
MMW
Yeah, we’ve all heard him talk about Punto being a gold glover at every position and how he can pick it. While I don’t completely disregard it, I don’t hold it as gospel either.
Des,
You’re putting me in the ackward position of having to defend Punto. You brought up two specific plays from last night and apply that to an entire body of work?
Simply should be Harris at SS and Punto/Casilla at 2nd base. Crede won’t be back next year, the FO fully knows that. Valencia will be given every opportunity to win the 3rd base job and most likely will. He is their 3rd baseball of the future. Buscher will probably move on………and continue to be the 3rd/1st utility guy.
JP,
Maybe defensive ratings are flawed. Maybe Gardy sees something you don’t.
I believe that the Twins should offer Crede a similar incentive laden contract like this year. I agree that he will NOT be a hot commodity because of his history of injuries.
BTW - what does Casilla bring to the table over Punto?
Grudzielanek has a 2B and a RBI so far today for the GCL Twins.
Paul
Maybe….Maybe…. Maybes are not much of an arguement.
BTW what exactly is your arguement? You say Punto is better than Harris at SS but provide no basis for your assertion Are you just repeating what Gardy says/does?
“Defensive ratings show Harris outplaying Punto defensively this year at SS. ”
Which ratings are those?
Grudzielanek is a band aid
“Maybe Gardy sees something you don’t.”
it appears gardy sees every flaw in some players and sees no flaws in his “favs”. some players never get called out for a bad play and never get benched for poor play or poor hitting and some blink wrong and they sit.
and i have no scientific proof for that statement, just an opinion.
Paul, that is certainly possible. However, I doubt Gardy watches a ton of non-Twins baseball. I doubt he tracks every single play made or not in every single game, writes it down, and analyzes it. I trust stats because they are less likely to be biased by recency, halo, familiarity, lack of observation, and other psychological issues/effects.
Different people respond differently to criticism. Perhaps Gardy (who spends more time with these guys than any of us could imagine) has figured out who responds to what best.
JP,
I’m not trying to sell you on anything.
I don’t want to “arguement” with you.
But you are right about the maybes. I used them to make it less of a shock to you.
Is this better?
Defensive ratings are flawed.
Gardy sees something you don’t.
T:, that’s a good point. He certainly knows his players better than we do. He likely understands what motivates each individual than we do. I’m not convinced he’s figured out every player correctly (and I am convinced he has some odd Punto bias), but it is likely he’s got a better handle than we do.
(and I am convinced he has some odd Punto bias)
The Punto bias (if any) goes BOTH ways.
mike wants wins,
I don’t know how old Gardy is. But I do know he has spent his working life in baseball. I consider him an expert. Among the handfull of people in the world who can do what he does he is amongst the best. Experts in any field have their biases. But they are built on history. What they have seen work. What they have seen to not work. What fits their “style”, what does not. The bias qualifiers you cite are minimal in the best experts. We can argue about whether he is too old or the Twins need a “change”. But we really can’t argue about his expertise.
sure we can. Kevin McHale had experience (or Matt Millen). Lots of GMs in baseball have experience (and coaches and managers and….), but lots of them fail and get fired. Just because someone has experience does not mean he has expertise. So, we can argue or disagree about his level of expertise, if not experience.
That said, I think Gardy is probably a very good judge of players in general.
But, again, I doubt he sees every baseball play, in every game. He sees every Twins game and their opponent’s play. He likely sees some other games. But, he probably doesn’t see more than about 1/10 (probably less) of all the games played. So, he has limited ability to compare Punto to another SS (as an example). The Twins have publicly stated they don’t believe in advanced fielding stats. I’m not sure why. I’m not sure you would trust something else, that does not take into account every play of every player of game. But, they don’t, and clearly neither do you. That’s cool, I just disagree.
Also, I have no experience or training (in the HR and psychology classes I’ve taken) that would indicate that bias does not exist, even among experts. Bias does not necessarily exist for “evil/bad” reasons, it exists often for completely innocuous reasons, but it does exist.
As for my personal Punto bias, yes, it exists. I base mine on hitting and fielding stats that indicate he’s just not that good compared to other SSs. The fact that I base it on stats, and not scouting or personal observation, creates a different bias then is created by using personal bias, no doubt.
that last part should say personal observation, not personal bias….
The bias towards Punto at this point (at least on the Strib) have surpassed statistical measure on more than one occasion, as demonstrated by the greater frustration when he succeeds than when he fails.
But as I’ve said before, the Strib blogs as a whole have a habit of blaming OTHERS for when the “favorites” struggle, but then never giving credit when the “less than liked” succeed.
Fair enough, T. There are certainly individual games where Punto adds value, I agree. I just think the stats show that in general, he costs them more games than he wins them. That is not the end of the world, btw. Most teams will have guys like that. Most do not, however, give them $8MM contracts. I’d expect the Twins, as a medium market team, to have guys that are not positive impacts on a whole season. The hard parts for me (and I’m speaking for me here) are the extension for Punto, and the fact that some of their players (Punto included) are so negative in their impact (and that they have too many of them that play a lot) that they somehow manage to cancel out M&M&K&C. That’s where my personal bias has its genesis….
The players these teams ask for for ALL STAR players is crazy but it’s beyond comprehension what they want for marginal MLB talent.
mike wants wins,
Wow, you’re a wordy dude ain’t ya?
“So, we can argue or disagree about his level of expertise, if not experience.”
You’re right. What I should have said is I won’t argue bout his expertise. I think his winning % with the constantly changing roster he has available speaks to that for me.
“I think Gardy is probably a very good judge of players in general.”
I agree.
“…sees every baseball play, in every game…”
If you are an auto mechanic you don,t need to examine every car’s problems to become expert. This rational applies to expertise in any field. I do understand and value statistics. But when statiscal analysis conflicts with personal observation you are left with a choice. Either the basis (your values) for your opinion is wrong or the statisics fail you. I think Gardy has chosen the latter.
In my case, I have never really taken the time to understand the various defensive “stats”. But when I hear someone say based on stats Harris is better at SS than Punto that leads me to the conclusion stats are flawed.
“Also, I have no experience or training (in the HR and psychology classes I’ve taken) that would indicate that bias does not exist, even among experts”
I agree. Bias most certainly does exist. Especially in experts. I think what you are refering to is irrational bias. Again, I think this is minimal in the best experts in their field. Supply and demand dynamics filters this.
“As for my personal Punto bias, yes, it exists”
Mine too. Punto sucks. But he can play ML SS. Harris can’t IMO. My basis for this opinion has been posted many times on the strib bogs.
I hope I didn’t offend you in any way. I do enjoy your opinions.
Dang, I’m gettin almost as wordy as you.
You can always argue about expertise; you cannot argue about experience. Some people have 1 year’s worth of experience 30 years in a row. Others have 30 years of experience that has grown and developed each year. Some people never learn from the past; others learn and build from the past. All coaches/managers (or any job) who have 30 years of experience are not equal.
coyotetom,
Exellent points. But the guys that rise to the top of any field are normally experts. Aren’t they?
So, how does Valencia project out as a starter in the Majors? We know what Sanchez has done. What is the projection for Valenica? Does anyone know?
id trade valencia in a second for sanchez. sanchez has WON A BATTING TITLE
“If you are an auto mechanic you don,t need to examine every car’s problems to become expert.”
I have several friends who are auto mechanics and they all have different opinions on which cars are the best. They have biases.
As for Punto, I do think Gardy has a bias here. Not so much because he plays him over Harris (more on that later) but because of the way he goes to extremes to heap praise on him. Punto is a poor hitter who makes more than his share of baserunning mistakes when he does get on and I don’t think this is cancelled out be his defense. I don’t buy the ‘He’s a winner’ and ‘Good things happen when he plays’ talk.
As for the defensive stats: they fully support Gardy. Punto has been a very good SS throughout his career while Harris has been consistantly below average. Maybe Punto has lost a step and maybe Harris has improved, but the sample size is too small to draw the conclusion that Harris is the better SS at this point.
“But the guys that rise to the top of any field are normally experts. Aren’t they?”
I would agree for any field that requires a skill that can be measured. I don’t agree in this case. (I do think Gardy is a fine manager based on his body of work and the respect he receives from his peers. I just don’t buy the argument that he is good at his job because he has it.)
“id trade valencia in a second for sanchez. sanchez has WON A BATTING TITLE”
This one made me laugh… Thanks!
saam,
“I have several friends who are auto mechanics and they all have different opinions on which cars are the best. They have biases.”
Good point. But the issue is rational bias vs irrational bias. Your buddies biases are one or the other. My point is that the guys that reach the top of their fields have minimal irrational bias. The irrational guys are less successful so they are not in demand.
Pual
I don’t agree with your arguemt at all. Managers aren’t the same as skilled workers in any field. And fields that involve working with people can’t be compared with fields that involve working with facts or materials. People have a way of influencing us without our knowledge and our feelings (both good and bad) for other people are stronger than our feelings for facts or materials.
Seth, waht is the projected ceiling for Valencia? No idea?
baseball managers are a small club, when was the last time you heard a managers peers say boy is he a bad manager?
i’m not saying gardy is a bad manager but imo he is not a great manager and it may be time for a change. he has been here a long time and sometimes the message gets old and a new one is needed. it looks like that time is here right now, again imo.
ggg, I do think he is a good manager, but that doesn’t mean the team wouldn’t benefit from a change. Even the best manager(s) aren’t successful in all situations.
“Seth, waht is the projected ceiling for Valencia? No idea?”
Well, with any prospect, the projections should always say “no idea” because you never know. But my thought is that if Valencia played 150 games for the Twins next year, he could hit .280/.325/.450 with 15 homers? His ceiling could be something like .300/.360/.520 with 30 homers. And he’s solid defensively. And he’s 24.
Sanchez is good, and I’d love the Twins to get him, but you don’t give up a guy like Valencia for that.
saam,
“People have a way of influencing us”
I agree completely. But managers that deal with people are statisized (I think that’s a word) too. They have a goal or goals. They succeed or fail based on the “rightness” of their decisions. The “rightness” of a persons decisions is the basis for determining rationality. If you are rational you will succeed more than one who is irrational. To be a ML manager you have to have a history of success. To keep getting a paycheck as such you have to continue to be successful. In Gardy’s case, he has evidently convinced his boss/bosses to keep paying him.
saam: good post (3:11). I also share your mistrust of defensive metrics, and certainly don’t think they should be taken as infallable. But…they are at the least something to consider.
My thoughts: In general I agree that Punto is a better shortstop than Harris. Harris’ range is abysmal, but he generally fields what he gets to, and turns it into an out.
I don’t know why, or for how long it will last, but IMO Punto’s defense has taken a turn for the worse this year, primarily due to his arm. He appears to me to have developed a really weak arm this year, which he hasn’t suffered from in the past. I don’t know if that’s temporary or permanent, but it seems obvious to me at the moment.
I’ve also felt for a long time that SS is Punto’s worst position by far. I thought he was a very good defensive third baseman, and a good second baseman, but he has always been stretched as a shortstop. Just my opinion. When you combine that with his arm this year, my pick would be Harris. Harris is a better hitter and probably not much worse this year than Punto at short.
Thank you for the response. I have never been able to see him play as I live in alaska. I asked because some people are saying that he should be the starter next year already and I was wondering if that is realistic. I relly think that the Twins should get Sanchez because if they do not do this or get someone we will be back here again next year discussing the same thing. But keeping Valencia would be a good idea too. Surely there must be other players to use as the bargaining chips and resources that they are.
Paul
I remain unconvinced. Either way, we are not talking about an outrageous history of irrational bias. We are talking about bias in regards to one player. I only follow the Twins, but I would bet that every manager in MLB has his biases.
saam,
But every single bias is by definition either rational or irrational. Biases may be insignificant or have grave consequences but they are always either rational or irrational. The best get to be the best because they are rational. What the uninformed see as Gardy’s irrational bias toward Punto is most likely a very rational bias. You proably have favorite tools in your life. Because they work the best for you. If you found a tool that would work better you would have a new favorite tool. This is a completely rational bias. Same for Gardy and Punto at SS.
Another person has a bias when his evaluation disagrees with my evaluation.
My evaluation is NOT a bias, because it is correct, NOT biased.
Got it?
If BS can’t bring in a legit SP then he should be fired and the Twins should have a fire sale hoping that we can restock the org. with good pitching and hitting prospects. I’m talking about REAL prospects not el cheapo prospects like the Twins draft.
sane-Would the Twins be better served long-term with Sanchez or Valencia?
