I think Joe Mauer’s a lock for MVP today. The official announcement comes at 1 p.m., but we could hold the press conference now.

The BBWAA strongly encourages voters not to reveal their choices before the announcement gets made, but to get a feel, note that Mauer received 20 of 22 first-place votes in ESPN’s in-house poll, with Mark Teixeira and Derek Jeter getting the others.

Jeter and Teixeira had fantastic seasons. Mauer’s was historic. He was the first AL player since George Brett in 1980 to lead the league in batting average (.365), OPB (.444) and SLG (.587).

Teixeira tied Carlos Pena for the AL lead with 39 home runs and led the league with 122 RBI. That’s impressive, but it’s worth noting that Teixeira also played in a hitter’s paradise and had more RBI chances than anyone. According to Baseball Prospectus, Teixeira had 508 runners on base for his plate appearances this season. The next closest AL hitter was teammate Robinson Cano, with 476.

Mauer ranked 49th on that list with 355 runners on base and still managed a career-high 96 RBI. For more on Mauer’s MVP chances, click here, or to see La Velle and I break it down on video, click here. Howard Sinker weighs in today, noting that the MVP is not a lifetime achievement award.

Today’s story on the free agent market opening includes a payroll update, now that J.J. Hardy is in the mix. After spending $65 million on last year’s Opening Day 25-man roster, the Twins are currently projected to spend $83 million, just with the players in-house. I did this at season’s end, trying to give readers a look at what a potential 25-man roster would look like if the season started that day.

(Note, as written before, this is not a suggested Opening Day roster or lineup. It’s more like a current depth chart. I originally had 3B Danny Valencia in the projected starting lineup. Since most indications we’ve gotten are that he’ll need more seasoning at Class AAA Rochester, I’ve inserted Brendan Harris at 3B.)

Update: The Twins added six prospects to their 40-man roster today, protecting these players for the Dec. 10 Rule 5 draft. They added Valencia, SS Estarlin De Los Santos, RHP Deolis Guerra, RHP Alex Burnett, RHP Loek Van Mil and RHP Rob Delaney. They also trimmed one player from the 40-man, outrighting 3B Deibinson Romero to Class AAA Rochester. These changes are noted below:

STARTING LINEUP
1. CF — Denard Span: $450,000 (estimate)
2. SS — J.J. Hardy: $6,000,000 (arbitration estimate)
3. C — Joe Mauer: $12,500,000
4. 1B — Justin Morneau: $15,000,000
5. DH — Jason Kubel: $4,100,000
6. RF — Michael Cuddyer: $9,417,000
7. LF — Delmon Young: $2,000,000 (arb. estimate)
8. 3B — Brendan Harris: $1,000,000 (arb. estimate)
9. 2B — Nick Punto: $4,000,000
—————————————————-
Total (9 starters): $54,467,000

BENCH
C — Jose Morales: $410,000 (estimate)
INF — Matt Tolbert: $415,000 (estimate)
INF — Alexi Casilla: $440,000 (estimate)
OF — Jason Pridie: $400,000 (estimate)
C — Drew Butera: $400,000 (estimate)
—————————————————
Total (5 bench players): $2,065,000

ROTATION
1. Scott Baker: $3,000,000
2: Nick Blackburn: $450,000 (estimate)
3. Kevin Slowey: $450,000 (estimate)
4. Brian Duensing: $410,000 (estimate)
5. Francisco Liriano: $1,000,000 (estimate)
————————————-
Total (5 starters): $5,310,000

BULLPEN
Joe Nathan: $11,250,000
Jon Rauch: $2,900,000
Matt Guerrier: $3,000,000 (arb. estimate)
Jose Mijares: $420,000 (estimate)
Jesse Crain: $3,000,000 (arb. estimate)
Pat Neshek: $800,000 (arb. estimate)
——————————————
Total (6 relievers): $21,370,000

Projected 25-man total: $83,212,000

(Rotation depth)
LH — Glen Perkins: $460,000 (estimate)
RH — Anthony Swarzak: $410,000 (estimate)
RH — Jeff Manship: $410,000 (estimate)
RH — Deolis Guerra: $400,000 (estimate)

(Bullpen depth)
RH — Boof Bonser: $800,000 (estimate)
RH — Bobby Keppel: $410,000 (estimate)
RH — Rob Delaney: $400,000 (estimate)
RH — Anthony Slama: $400,000 (estimate)
RH — Alex Burnett: $400,000 (estimate)
RH — Loek Van Mil: $400,000 (estimate)

(Position depth)
C — Wilson Ramos: $400,000 (estimate)
INF — Luke Hughes: $400,000 (estimate)
INF — Trevor Plouffe: $400,000 (estimate)
INF — Estarlin De Los Santos: $400,000 (estimate)
INF — Steven Tolleson: $400,000 (estimate)

(Twins free agents)
Carl Pavano: $7,000,000 (estimate)
Orlando Cabrera: $5,000,000 (estimate)
Joe Crede: $2,500,000 (estimate)
Mike Redmond: $1,000,000 (estimate)
Ron Mahay: $1,500,000 (estimate)

With the free agent market set to open tonight at 11 p.m. (Central), there’s an important piece by Ken Rosenthal on FoxSports.com today, about the growing tension between players and owners. Yes, the C-word gets mentioned again. Collusion.

Prominent agent Scott Boras basically says follow the money. Though his estimates are disputed by MLB officials, he points to the tens of millions teams are receiving from the central fund — from national TV contracts, licensing, etc. — and the tens of millions more some teams get in revenue sharing, and concludes some are pocketing the cash, instead of re-investing in payroll.

Rob Manfred, MLB’s chief of labor negotiations, counters: “Just like when [Boras] does a player negotiation he lies about the numbers in order to get the price up, now he’s taken that to the macro-economic level and lying about industry numbers in order to get player [contract] numbers up,” Manfred said. “There is no one club getting $80 or $90 million in combination from revenue sharing and Central Baseball. Not one.”

Rosenthal notes that the owners and players have agreed to shelve any collusion grievance until after the offseason. But the current collective bargaining agreement expires after 2011, and baseball’s unprecedented stretch of labor peace could be in jeopardy.

For now, with the economy struggling and amid hints that some teams are determined to trim payroll (Tigers, Reds, etc.), this creates an interesting backdrop as the current free agent class begins testing the market.

(*) Twins manager Ron Gardenhire finished second to the Angels’ Mike Scioscia in AL Manager of the Year voting. Here’s how the voting went, according to the BBWAA web site:

Manager (1st-2nd-3rd-Points)
Mike Scioscia (15-10-1-106)
Ron Gardenhire (6-12-6-72)
Joe Girardi (4-3-5-34)
Ron Washington (1-1-11-19)
Jim Leyland (0-0-2-2)

(*) Also, FoxSports.com quotes free agent pitcher Jarrod Washburn as saying the Twins and Brewers are on his radar, with the Mariners in the mix, too.

(*) The AL Manager of the Year announcement comes today at 1 p.m. (corrected), and though Twins manager Ron Gardenhire will be in the mix again, the leading candidate is Angels manager Mike Scioscia. Gardenhire has finished second for this award so many times, I’m losing track. The NL Manager award will be announced at 2:30.

(*) The L.A. Times reports that the Twins have spoken to Mark DeRosa’s agent, Keith Grunewald, who says a dozen teams have inquired, including the Dodgers, Cardinals, Mariners, Nationals, Giants, Phillies, Orioles, Rangers, Yankees, Mets and Braves. The Twins had interest in trading for DeRosa last offseason when he was with the Cubs. Grunewald told the Times that DeRosa is seeking a multi-year deal. (Hat tip TwinsGeek.)

(*) According to Baseball America, the Twins have a total of eight minor-league free agents:

RHP: Frank Mata (AA), Oswaldo Sosa (AA)
LHP: Reid Santos (AAA)
1B: Brock Peterson (AAA)
2B: Alejandro Machado (AA)
3B: Brian Buscher (AAA)
OF: Matt Moses (AA), David Winfree (AAA)

We’d mentioned Buscher and Winfree, but it’s worth noting that Moses was the Twins’ first-round pick in 2003.

(*) Teams have until Friday to set their 40-man rosters, which protects players for the Rule 5 Draft on Dec. 10. The Twins have some announcements to make, since they are currently at 35, excluding free agents Orlando Cabrera, Joe Crede, Ron Mahay, Carl Pavano, Mike Redmond. That doesn’t mean they will add five new players, as many teams leave themselves short heading into the Rule 5 Draft.

Update: The Manager of the Year announcements came at 1 p.m. (not 2, as I had written earlier), and Gardenhire did wind up finishing second to Scioscia in the AL, with Jim Tracy winning in the NL.