This just in from David Joy, chief investment strategist at Ameriprise-subsidiary RiverSource Investments — an amusing take at what an ox, a groundhog and a sports team can tell us about where the stock market is headed in 2009. Read his musings and weigh in on whether any of these indicators are worth the blogosphere it’s posted on.

First, the Chinese New Year began last week and it is the Year of the Ox. While neither a fundamental nor a technical indicator, the ox is believed to be a sign of prosperity through patience and hard work. It is considered to be patient, tireless in its work and capable of enduring hardship without complaint. These qualities may be in high demand in the current market environment.

Second, there is the Super Bowl indicator.

With an almost 80 percent accuracy rate, it predicts that when a team from the original National Football League wins the big game, stocks can look forward to a positive year. A down year is predicted by a win by an old American Football League team. Both of this year’s teams have roots in the original NFL, so the prediction was preordained even before the game was played. But keep in mind, last year’s prediction didn’t work out too well, to say the least.

Third, and more ominously, there is the January indicator, which has an accuracy rate of better than 90 percent. Devised in 1972 by Yale Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, it holds that as January goes, so goes the year. If that is the case, then watch out! The 8.6 percent decline in the S&P 500 Index and the 8.8 percent drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average to start 2009 were the worst declines for any January on record.

Finally, there is the ground hog. No, Punxsutawney Phil has not started predicting the direction of markets. He’s sticking to weather. But after the miserable weather most of the country has had to endure to start the year, I thought we might turn to Phil for some hope on that front. Unfortunately, even here the news is bad. Phil saw his shadow and is predicting six more weeks of winter. That just seems like piling on.

This entry was posted on Monday, February 2nd, 2009 at 5:40 pm and is filed under investing. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.