Impact of independents
October 9th, 2007 – 6:39 AM by Dennis J. McGrathIn our Minnesota Poll story today — it’s here — reporter Bob von Sternberg notes that the rise in independents is being detected nationwide.
Barack Obama |
The New York Times recently pointed to the same trend nationally, and explored what impact it could have in the New Hampshire primary. Like Minnesota, New Hampshire has an open primary, allowing voters to decide as they walk into the polls which party primary they want to vote in. The Times story, here, concluded that it could hurt Hillary Rodham Clinton and John McCain, and benefit Barack Obama.
What impact could independents who lean toward one of the parties have if they decide to attend Minnesota’s Republican and DFL precinct caucuses on Feb. 5? One way to answer that question is to compare the presidential candidate support among only those Minnesota Poll respondents who declared a clear party affiliation, with the support levels when the “leaners” are included.
The conclusion: There’s no discernable difference.
No candidate in either party had more than a 2-point swing in their level of support when comparing party-regulars-only and party-regulars-and-leaners.
On the Republican side, Rudy Giuliani’s lead over John McCain was 28 percent to 24 percent among Republicans, and was 27 percent to 22 percent among Republicans and leaners.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Rodham Clinton’s advantage over Barack Obama shrinks by only one point, from a 49-23 percent gap among Democrats to a 47-22 percent gap among Democrats and leaners.
In other words, the leaners toward each party are small enough in number and they break close enough along the lines of the party regulars that, at least at this point, they don’t seem to affect the overall results for candidate preference.
Do you agree with the thrust of the New York Times story? And what role do you think independents will play in Minnesota and other states as the presidential race unfolds?
5 Responses to "Impact of independents"
A “leaner” is another term for a voter who’s essentially committed but wants to believe they’ve left themselves options.
In that sense, the polls wouldn’t move much if any.
I agree with Wish. It seems to be trendy to say you are “independent,” which is complicated in Minnesota by our capital “I” Independence Party.
What people say they are really is of no consequence. What matters is who they will likely vote for and in that respect the Dems are way out ahead.
Most independents more often than not vote one way of the other. They just like to think of themselves as “independent.” I think it’s dumb.
How are the Dems way out ahead?
Could it be the the polls are conducted by the Strib?
Help me understand.
I think a lot of voters are confused.
Many Republicans support the Iraq war, but may feel that Bush has screwed it up beyond hope. They hear “Stay the Course”, and are torn.
Many Democrats want our soldiers out of Iraq, but understand the chaos that a rapid pull-out would create. They hear “End the war now”, and are torn.
Confused voters often call themselves Independents.
Regarding the poll…I see that Survey USA recently conducted a couple of polls for KSTP, KAAL and WDIO stations in Minnesota. The first poll was taken a little before the Minnesota Poll.
I do not see any Survey poll results regarding party ID. But I did find job approval results. For comparison, here are the Survey USA poll numbers, followed by the Star Tribune Minnesota Poll numbers on job approval for:
Sen. Norm Coleman: Survey 46 percent, Minn Poll 45 percent.
Gov. Tim Pawlenty: Survey 57, Minnesota Poll 59.
President Bush: Survey 29, Minnesota Poll 30.
In a second poll Survey conducted after the Minnesota Poll was out of the field, they asked questions very similar (but not identical) to ours:
Pawlenty\\\’s handling of the I-35 bridge collapse (Minnesota Poll wording) or bridge disaster (Survey USA wording): Minnesota Poll 68 percent approve, Survey 56 percent approve.
Minnesota Legislature\\\’s handling of the bridge collapse/bridge disaster: Minnesota Poll 58%, Survey 37%.
Both polls also asked about a gas tax increase, although the wording was a bit different regarding what the money would be used for: inspection and repair of bridges only vs improving roads and bridges.
The Minnesota Poll asked about a gas tax increase to pay for increased inspection and repair of bridges: 46 percent yes, 50 percent no.
Survey asked about a gas tax increase to pay for improving the condition of our roads and bridges: 34 percent yes, 64 percent no.
Tomorrow, we will publish our final poll from this sample — on job approval for Sen. Amy Klobuchar. Here is the Survey USA results on Klobuchar (from their poll that finished just before ours started): 62 percent job approval.
Check Politically Connected tomorrow morning to compare the Minnesota Poll findings on Klobuchar.