October surprise
October 23rd, 2007 – 7:29 AM by Dennis J. McGrath
Photo credit: Yoichi R. Okamoto |
Not this October, of course. But a year from now, we’ll be awash in rumors of an impending 11th-hour action or disclosure that rocks the political landscape.
So, while it’s still October 2007, it’s time to take your best shot at predicting what October surprises may be in store next year.
We’ll put a broad definition on the phrase. It could be a Bush administration maneuver (the traditional definition). It could be a move by the Democratic leaders of Congress. It could be a news media disclosure. Or it could be self-inflicted.
To get the discussion rolling, here are some possibilities:
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A massive troop withdrawal from Iraq announced by President Bush. It likely would have to be set up with one or more smaller withdrawals in the spring and summer to be most effective. (Think Johnson’s bombing halt, Oct. 31, 1968; and Nixon’s/Kissinger’s “peace is at hand,” Oct. 26, 1972.)
A national security emergency, such as the arrest of a terrorist cell that was poised to attack, or a small act of war — preferably a muscle-flexing air strike against a small, rogue nation that can’t strike back, at least not before the votes are counted. (Think “Wag the Dog” and Clinton’s strike against Sudan and Afghanistan; not true October Surprises, but from the same bag of tricks.)
The launch of a Congressional investigation into an allegation of constitutionally-serious misdeeds. But in order to perform due diligence and to really, really get at the truth, it won’t, unfortunately, be wrapped up until after Election Day.
Bin Laden suddenly turns up dead.
Bin Laden launches a terrorist attack on New York City and/or Washington.
FOX News reports that Hillary….fill in the blank.
Dan Rather reports that President Bush….fill in the blank.
What do you think will be next year’s October?
4 Responses to "October surprise"
The whole “October Surprise” concept is a bit self-deflating now days. We’re all waiting around in anticipation for it, playing games like this one. Where’s the surprise?
But back to the game: the GOP has few options left. A perpetual majority is still the dream, and nat’l security is their last trump card. With the President’s widely expanded power to wage war at will, it’s hard not to see some Sept/Oct pre-emptive campaign based on a fallacious (and no longer necessary) “security” justification.
[addendum] - 1 more reason that an October Surprise needs to be military for Republicans:
If such a surprise DOES in fact land a GOP candidate in the White House, it will be absolutely mandatory that he wield the Commander-in-Chief’s wartime cloak of authority to allow him to continue to govern in the Bush/Cheney/Rove mold.
What the hell are you talking about, McGrath?! The point of an October surprise is that it’s rolled out by one of the campaigns, to rock the opposition’s world.
So what is THIS doing on your list of possible October surprises?
“Bin Laden launches a terrorist attack on New York City and/or Washington.”
What you think Giuliani will be running behind Hillary next year, so the GOP are gonna call up bin Laden and tell him to strike again in America–because that would make a good October surprise?
Jeez. The stuff I have to deal with from the media. What is it with these frigging questions? “What’s the October surprise going to be a year from now?” Who the eff knows, it’s supposed to be a “surprise”, that’s the whole point! A “surprise”, in “October”, no time for effective rebuttal.
What, you want us to guess *away*? Okay, but I think you’re just j’ing off so you don’t have to look up a real story today.
Let’s see…let’s see…next year’s October surprise…what could it be…
Ummm…
Okay–how’s this. “Larry Craig is NOT gay.” He’s completely vindicated after he’s named in paternity suits by Angelina Jolie, Winona Ryder, and Scarlett Johanssen. Innocent man, vindicated=GOP comeback with a vengeance.
Here’s another one: “Hillary is a human eating alien.” The GOP op research people go through her private library looking for more billing records, and they find a book–”To Serve Man”–very impressive title, even more so when they find out–IT’S A COOKBOOK! They gasp and drop the book, the sound alerts Hillary, who comes into the room, rips off her ‘human’ mask revealing a lizard head with fangs, hisses “You know too much, earthlings!” and kills them all for lunch. Fortunately the whole incident is captured on one of the deceased’s video cell phone–and it becomes…next year’s October surprise.
You want more? Write back if you do. I could do this all day. So much more fun than discussing politics.
B. Pantywaist,
Luv it. And the fact that a human-eating alien will easily hunt down bin Laden wins votes for the DFL.
Still doesn’t explain how Craig could have a stance any wider than his 36″ waistband - unless his pants were off.