On the eve of Florida’s primary, Rudy Giuliani’s legs are showing signs of buckling. Starting with tomorrow’s winner-take-all contest in Florida, Giuliani faces an eight-day stretch that could make or break his candidacy.

He’s been a non-factor in each of the states that have held primaries or caucuses so far, collecting only a single delegate, according to the Associated Press count.

And now, if the polls in Florida prove to be accurate, he’s going to finish third at best and would head into Super Tuesday with a growing sense of doom.

AP Photo

It’s been a stunning collapse for the one-time frontrunner. Here are a few stats to put it in perspective.

In 41 polls taken by a dozen different pollsters between early March and the end of November last year, Giuliani led in every one.

In most of those polls, his lead was in the double digits.

In April, he recorded a 23-point lead over the field.

Now, McCain and Romney are tied, and Giuliani is trailing them by about 10 points.

Florida is a winner-take-all state, meaning that someone will walk away 57 delegates richer. (Florida normally would have twice that many delegates, but half were stripped by the national party because the state scheduled its primary too early.)

With one delegate so far — won last Saturday in Nevada — a Giuliani win in Florida would instantly resuscitate his campaign — putting him only one delegate behind the GOP leader — Mitt Romney with 59 delegates.

Perhaps more important, a Florida win could help Giuliani hold off John McCain in New York and New Jersey on Feb. 5’s Super Tuesday. Those two winner-take-all states hold a total of 153 delegates (101 in N.Y. and 52 in N.J.).

Earlier, those two states were seen as Giuliani strongholds, and the lynchpin of his Super Tuesday strategy. Now, Giuliani and McCain are running even in those two states in recent polls.

If Giuliani can win Florida and then New York and New Jersey, and does reasonably well in other Super Tuesday states, he could possibly emerge with the most delegates.

If he loses those three big states, it’s hard to see how his candidacy survives.

So, before Giuliani bows out, here are a choice readings.

Here’s the New York Times editorial (registration required) endorsing McCain and describing Giuliani as “a narrow, obsessively secretive, vindictive man who saw no need to limit police power. Racial polarization was as much a legacy of his tenure as the rebirth of Times Square… Mr. Giuliani’s arrogance and bad judgment are breathtaking.”

And here’s a NYT story exploring that vindictive streak.

And here’s a case made on Townhall.com for Fred Thompson supporters to back Giuliani in Florida because he most closely aligns with Thompson on key issues.

And finally, much has been written and said recently about Giuliani’s Super Tuesday national-primary strategy, leaving the impression that that was his plan from the start. But this column by the Baltimore Sun’s Washington Bureau Chief makes the case that Giuliani did not initially plan on banking on a win in Florida — and that he, in fact, campaigned doggedly in the early states, but simply was rejected by voters.

This entry was posted on Monday, January 28th, 2008 at 5:23 am and is filed under John McCain, Main, Mitt Romney, Presidential Republican, Rudy Giuliani. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.