Super Tuesday could be Super for McCain
January 29th, 2008 – 11:03 PM by Dennis J. McGrathJust a few weeks ago, Super Tuesday was looking like it might leave the GOP presidential race just as muddied as it has been for weeks. But now, that “national primary” is looking more and more like the day that Sen. John McCain builds a commanding lead in the race for the Republican nomination.
In the most important Super Tuesday states, McCain is riding high.
Nowhere is that more evident than in New York. Once conceded to Rudy Giuliani, the state now appears to be solidily behind McCain. This USA Today/Gallup Poll shows McCain 19 points ahead of Giuliani and 23 points ahead of Mitt Romney. And that was before the tailwind that McCain presumably will get as he leaves Florida.
Sen. John McCain celebrates Florida win |
The key thing to remember is that New York, like Florida, is a winner-take-all state — and it’s the biggest winner-take-all on Super Tuesday. With a win in New York, McCain would collect 101 delegates — or nearly a tenth of the number of delegates needed for nomination.
McCain is leading in polls in other key winner-take-all states.
New Jersey polls show McCain with a slim edge over Giuliani — but with a 2-to-1 or even nearly a 3-to-1 margin over Romney. If Giuliani quits the race, McCain should cruise to an easy win in New Jersey, and claim all 52 delegates.
McCain’s state of Arizona is also voting, and it’s also winner-take-all, with 53 delegates. Connecticut means 27 delegates for the winner, and McCain is ahead there, too.
California is the biggest state on Super Tuesday, with 173 delegates, and McCain has been holding a steady lead in polls there for weeks. California apportions delegates among the candidates, so McCain and Romney are likely to split most of those delegates between them.
In other Feb. 5 states that have recent polling:
– McCain enjoys significant leads in Illinois (70 delegates) and Oklahoma (41).
– Romney leads in Colorado (46) and Massachusetts (43).
– Mike Huckabee leads in Georgia (72) and Tennessee (55).
– There’s a virtual tie in Missouri (58 winner-take-all) and Alabama (48) between McCain and Huckabee.
What this seems to add up to is the very real possibility that McCain could win hundreds of more delegates on Super Tuesday than Romney and Huckabee.
But that could still leave him well short of the 1,191 needed to win the nomination.
On the one hand, it would give him the biggest claim on the nomination. On the other hand, if Huckabee wins Missouri’s 58 delegates and scores big wins in the southern states, and if Romney does well in the midwestern and western states, could they still have enough muscle to block McCain’s nomination?
And if they thought they might be able to block his nomination, would they try to do so? Or would they urge the nomination of McCain for the sake of a unified front against the Democratic nominee?
7 Responses to "Super Tuesday could be Super for McCain"
Let us look at McCain’s conservative credentials:
-IMMIGRATION: he wrote the bill granting amnesty to illegal immigrants (co-sponsored by Ted Kennedy)
-SOCIAL SECURITY: he voted to give your social security money to illegal immigrants
-TAXES: he voted against the Bush tax cuts multiple times (he has since flip-flopped and has campaigned as a lifelong tax-cutter)
-RHETORIC: he routinely engages in Democratic class warfare against big companies in America, particularly the “evil” drug companies who research cures to debilitating diseases for a profit
-ECONOMY: as recently as December 2007 he admitted “he does not know the economy very well” and needed to get better at it
-1ST AMENDMENT: he wrote the McCain-Feingold campaign finance bill that was declared to be an unconstitutional infringement of the 1st Amendment (co-sponsored by ultra-liberal Democrat Russ Feingold)
-2ND AMENDMENT: he was called the “worst 2nd amendment candidate” by the president of the NRA
-ENERGY TAX: wrote a bill (co-sponsored by his buddy Lieberman) imposing a massive tax on energy which, according to the Department of Energy, would drastically raise the price of gasoline and put 300,000 Americans out of work
-GLOBAL WARMING: supports radical global warming legislation which involved him voting with every Democrat; think only America is responsible to take action, not other superpowers
-JUDGES: he joined forces with Democrats (Gang of 14) to block the Senate Republican’s attempt to confirm conservative, strict constructionist judges
-WAR ON TERROR: fought with Hillary Clinton to demand that terrorists be given a full American trial
-GAY MARRIAGE: he joined liberals to fight against a federal marriage amendment supporting the institution of traditional marriage
-CHRISTIANS: campaigning in 2000, he famously described Christian leaders as “agents of intolerance”
-PRO-LIFE: he filed an amicus brief against pro-life advocates in Wisconsin
-BI-PARTISANSHIP: he met with leading Democrats in 2004 to discuss the possibility of being John Kerry’s Vice-President
-PROFESSIONAL ETHICS: ringleader of the infamous Keating 5 ethical scandal which cost US tax payers $160 billion (Google it)
-PERSONAL ETHICS: McCain cheated on his first wife after she had a severe accident that left her partially disabled. He then divorced her and married his multi-millionaire mistress, whose daddy bought McCain a spot in the Congress
I use to support Huckabee, but a vote for him now means a vote for McCain AMNESTY. Vote Romney to save the conservative movement from the New York Time’s favorite Republican, Juan McCain.
I am a Reagan democrat. Who do I vote for in this coming election? None of the front running D’s can fill my need and with the R’s there is no choice. John and Mitt are both D’s in costume. That leaves Huckabee that can’t win the nomination. No CHOICES-NO vote
[…] Blah3 - I Am The Adversary, And Must Remain The Adversary wrote an interesting post today on Super Tuesday could be Super for McCainHere’s a quick excerptAnd that was before the tailwind that McCain presumably will get as he leaves Florida. Sen. John McCain celebrates Florida win… […]
I think as the economy worsens Republicans will turn more to Mitt Romney over McCain. Florida is a very weird state. I wouldn’t put much of McCain’s (narrow) win there. New York might go for McCain but it’s also right next door to Massachusetts, so I think it’s a toss up.
McCain is a crotchety old dote who sounds like those geezers who sit around and complain about everything and nothing at the local greasy spoon or hardware store. The guy is ancient and his wife looks like a store mannequin from Sears. At least Huckabee and Romney can open their mouths without sounding a like hospice patient.
Dan,
Very nice post. Send the points to Romney’s web site.
Romney had better speak out in the California debate, or it’s over.
Paul I hope you are right.
If we get Hillary, Obama, or McCain they are all simular.
A bright spot to a McCain/Pawlenty administration is that we can get a new governor, not a supporter of the Global Warming Hoax.
McCain is from the West. He can maintain the firewall of red states against a Democratic victory. It will be easy for him to kick Obama’s rear.
Here’s what Obama said about life in midwestern towns (explaining why his mother left Kansas):
“escape from the empty, dust-ridden plains, where big plans mean a job as a bank manager and entertainment means an ice-cream soda and a Sunday matinee, where fear and lack of imagination choke your dreams so that you already know on the day that you’re born just where you’ll die and who it is that’ll bury you.”
The quote is from Obama’s book, “Dreams from my Father” at page 15.
How can a guy with an attitude like Obama’s win in the red states?