Who benefits from Edwards’ exit?
January 30th, 2008 – 10:12 AM by Dennis J. McGrathBy quitting on the eve of the Super Tuesday “national primary,” John Edwards throws perhaps 150 delegates back into the nominating mix.
He currently has 56 delegates, and he likely would have won dozens more in southern states and elsewhere on Super Tuesday. A recent analysis on the Daily Kos concluded that Edwards would win about 90 delegates that day.
John Edwards’ last stop in St. Paul |
Here’s speculation — and it’s strictly that — on Edwards’ calculation: By quitting before Super Tuesday, he enables Barack Obama to win more pledged delegates in those southern states on Tuesday, and beyond. That could be enough, in this extremely tight race between Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton — to give Obama enough committed delegates to make him the presumptive nominee by, say, early March. That would head off a convention battle, and allow Obama to start concentrating on the general election much earlier.
Agree, disagree? Other thoughts?
25 Responses to "Who benefits from Edwards’ exit?"
I’m not convinced that Edwards’ exit is a great boon to Obama (whom I support, by the way), especially in the south. In that region he was likely to draw the white-only vote, which will now have nowhere to go but Clinton. It could help him in California, though, which would be a major story if he won.
I’m glad he’s leaving. The guy could never win the nomination, let alone the general election.
Contrary to Edwards’ beliefs, MOST people in America DO have jobs. MOST people DO have healthcare. MOST people DON’T go to bed hungry at night. Edwards was speaking to the bottom 1% of Americans, MOST of whom don’t vote anyway. Bashing corporations all day long doesn’t get you very far. What are you going to do for the middle class?
!! OBAMA 2008 !!
I am worried that Edwards leaving will play into Bill’s and Hillary’s rock the white vote stratagy. I really hope not.
However, if Edwards endorsed Obama, that would be huge.
Obama 08
So, because “MOST Americans” etc, etc, etc, no one should speak for those at the bottom?
If you only care about what a candidate is going to “do” for you, maybe you need to re-examine your life.
First, just because I’m a white guy doesn’t mean I’ll vote for white guys. Black people shouldn’t vote for Obama simply because he is also black, and women shouldn’t vote for Clinton simply because she’s also a woman. If their positions on the issues relevant to you happen to line up with your views, then please, vote for them. But don’t vote for them because of skin color or an “X” chromosome.
I hope neither candidate gets the required number of delegates to ensure nomination by convention time. I’d like to see what happens to get to win the nomination at the convention. But with two candidates, it’s going to be tough. But I would be happy voting for either one for president. Caucus night is when I’m going to have trouble deciding.
I liked Edwards, but I’m voting for Barack Obama. I believe in him and his vision. I hope Edwards’ supporters will do their research and make the decision to vote Obama.
I will NOT vote for Hillary Clinton. I do not believe in her and I will vote republican before I vote for her.
I would like to see an Obama-Edwards Democrat ticket in ‘08, and not a Clinton-Clinton ticket!
And I strongly believe that Obama’s strength is his lack of experience in Washington… because it will require him to listen to folks and make a balanced judgement versus Clinton who will just charge forward with her own agenda and ideals (a.k.a. Bush)
Wishful thinking. There are people that will not vote for a Black President. There are people who will not vote for a Female President. The questions is which is a larger group? I have no idea, my guess is that Edwards leaving the race is a small plus for Clinton.
Since Edwards has dropped out, I will vote for no one. Both Barack and Hillary are Republican candidates running in the Democratic party. As far as I am concerned, there are no candidates that represent me. Therefore, I vote for none of them.
I really like Edward because he was honest, but I also like Obama, which I’m voting for.
I hope to see Edward as vic-President.
have you notice that, they didn’t attact Edward on the compaign.
I voted for Edwards in ‘04 and liked a lot of what he had to say then. This time I am for Obama and I hope Obama goes out of his way to court Edwards because he is going to need his help.
I just think Clinton would divide this country just as much as Bush has for the past 8 years. Plus the fact a Clinton or Bush has been in the White house since 1980–time for a new face.
I like Obama for his ability to lift people’s hopes, make them dream and aspire for great things. But, Bush will leave his successor perhaps the biggest group of disasterous messes to clean up in our history. In addition, these are very uncertain times in the world. I just don’t think that Obama has shown the depth to say more than that he wants to change things (what and in what way), that he thinks he’s being victimized by Clinton (wait till the Republicans take their aim), and that he has the experience and knowhow to pulloff what needs to happen. I’d love to see a Clinton/Obama ticket. But, I don’t think he’s ready for the top job just yet on one term in the Senate. He will have to deal with the establishment types he’s bashing - does he know how to do that? Will he treat foreign leaders, Senators and Congressman who displease him the way he treated Sen. Clinton at the State of the Union?
Clinton in 2008!
I wish Edwards had stayed in until after Super Tuesday. With the block of delegates he would have won from those contests, he could have kept the pressure up on Obama and Clinton to enact policies that would renegotiate ‘free-trade’ and correct abuses by corporations. I wonder if Edwards is angling to be a V.P. candidate for either of the front runners by stepping aside at this time?
Experience counts. I will probably vote for Clinton at the MN caucuses because I’m tired of sending rookies to help oversee a $9.6 trillion organization.
I can’t believe it took him this long to realize he wasn’t a truly viable candidate when stacked again Obama an Clinton. I guess you give him some credit for giving it the old college try. I agree with McAwesome- I think Obama MIGHT be able to work both sides at a times whereas Clinton will simply shove her agenda down the throats of the GOP (Bush-style) which will upset the other half of country and we’re back to square one. Obama seems to get that you don’t have to agree but do have find a way to work together- not work-over!
(recently) Obama 08!
It is good for the Republicans because many people will not vote for either Hillary or Obama. Edwards did not cater to the lower 1% as Disco claims. I am college educated and live in a very comfortable neighborhood or so I am told. I have been laid off repeatedly as have several of my neighbors. Edwards was the only candidate who represented me. Hillary and Obama cater to fringe groups and cannot win. I will probably vore Republican or for a third party candidate.
Hi Bruce C.
I think Bush the first showed that experience did amount to a hill of beans when it came to taking over the presidency. If Barack Obama surrounds himself with a solid Cabinet who are experts in their respective fields, he’ll do just fine.
The people who bash Hillary all of the time (including Democrats) don’t really know anything about her. I’m from Minnesota but live in upstate New York now and people love her here because they’ve actually gotten to know who she is. I think Democrats have bought into the Republican slime machine of the 1990s-present, and Hillary has not really defended herself (especially in the 1990s) because that would have been a distraction for Bill and the country. She will defend herself, however, if she’s the nominee and I think people will get a better picture of her.
Hillary cannot avoid the vitriol coming from the Right. It’s been since Bill won in 1992 a poisonous atmosphere in Washington, DC. W of course was going to change that. Obama is the only candidate left that can possibly do that.
I like Hillary and think she’s the best we have to offer for foreign policy, but she won’t get anything done at home without a filibuster-proof Senate. And that’s not likely.
I’m caucusing for Obama now (I had planned to back Edwards)
I hope the candidate isn’t decided before the convention. How boring would that be. I think Obama is rude — couldn’t even shake Clinton’s hand and actually turned his back to her! I haven’t decided who to vote for yet. The empty promises without an actual solution are frustrating. I haven’t heard anything along those lines yet — just I will do this and I will do that!
Marsha, please read http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/30/opinion/30dowd.html?hp. He was not rude.
Billary getting nominated will motivate the Republicans, who are currently sitting on the sidelines, to get out and vote.
To nominate Hillary would be to give away the most winnable general election for Democrats in decades.
Experience, experience, blah, blah, blah…
If you want experience, vote for McCain (foreign policy) or Romney (business expertise). Hillary isn’t an expert on the economy or foreign policy unless you consider her $10 million paycheck annually for advising the Saudis regarding their investment in U.S. banks and business.
That’s not something I’m looking for in a candidate, giving a sketchy foreign government even more influence of any sort in our nation’s economy.
Do you really think Hillary can inspire American citizens to turn this country around like Obama can? She’s running on the coat-tails of Bill’s success. And I’m not anti-female. I’d vote for the Gov. of Kansas for Prez. in eight years.
Hillary’s bright, but so is Obama, and he also has charisma that can bring the Dems and Republicans together.
I think it is good for everyone with Edwards out because he is a lunatic. He didn’t run for re-election as Senator in North Carolina because he knew he would lose, so that makes him a good presidental candidate?
Tiny,
Not sure where you have been saying Hillary and Obama are really Republicans runnning as Democrats. Hillary is left and Obama is further left. McCann is just to the right of Hillary. If anything McCann and Huckabee are RINO’s. Looks like we don’t have much choice this time, but we didn’t the last two times either.
I truly respect Edwards as a man of principle, speaking out and campagining against poverty. I have just never believed in him as a legitimate candidate for president. He’d be better off staying in Congress and do his fighting from there, or even as an activist in the private sector.
As an Obama supporter, I think an endorsement from Edwards could put us over the top. However, I would not be in favor of Barack making him his running mate. Generally you don’t want a holdover from a previously unsuccessful campaign climbing back on the wagon. I believe Obama will select a more centrist Democrat or even possibly a VERY centrist Republican for VP to help underscore his message of healing bi-partisan wounds in Washington.
Let us look at McCain’s conservative credentials:
-IMMIGRATION: he wrote the bill granting amnesty to illegal immigrants (co-sponsored by Ted Kennedy)
-SOCIAL SECURITY: he voted to give your social security money to illegal immigrants
-TAXES: he voted against the Bush tax cuts multiple times (he has since flip-flopped and has campaigned as a lifelong tax-cutter)
-RHETORIC: he routinely engages in Democratic class warfare against big companies in America, particularly the “evil” drug companies who research cures to debilitating diseases for a profit
-ECONOMY: as recently as December 2007 he admitted “he does not know the economy very well” and needed to get better at it
-1ST AMENDMENT: he wrote the McCain-Feingold campaign finance bill that was declared to be an unconstitutional infringement of the 1st Amendment (co-sponsored by ultra-liberal Democrat Russ Feingold)
-2ND AMENDMENT: he was called the “worst 2nd amendment candidate” by the president of the NRA
-ENERGY TAX: wrote a bill (co-sponsored by his buddy Lieberman) imposing a massive tax on energy which, according to the Department of Energy, would drastically raise the price of gasoline and put 300,000 Americans out of work
-GLOBAL WARMING: supports radical global warming legislation which involved him voting with every Democrat; think only America is responsible to take action, not other superpowers
-JUDGES: he joined forces with Democrats (Gang of 14) to block the Senate Republican’s attempt to confirm conservative, strict constructionist judges; also said Alito was too conservative for his liking
-WAR ON TERROR: fought with Hillary Clinton to demand that terrorists be given a full American trial
-GAY MARRIAGE: he joined liberals to fight against a federal marriage amendment supporting the institution of traditional marriage
-CHRISTIANS: campaigning in 2000, he famously described Christian leaders as “agents of intolerance”
-PRO-LIFE: he filed an amicus brief against pro-life advocates in Wisconsin
-BI-PARTISANSHIP: he met with leading Democrats in 2004 to discuss the possibility of being John Kerry’s Vice-President; publicly considered leaving the Republican Party in 2001 after he lost the primary
-PROFESSIONAL ETHICS: ringleader of the infamous Keating 5 ethical scandal which cost US tax payers $160 billion (Google it)
-PERSONAL ETHICS: McCain cheated on his first wife after she had a severe accident that left her partially disabled. He then divorced her and married his multi-millionaire mistress, whose daddy bought McCain a spot in the Congress
Obama ridicules life in midwestern towns. Here’s what Obama said about life in midwestern towns (explaining why his mother left Kansas):
“escape from the empty, dust-ridden plains, where big plans mean a job as a bank manager and entertainment means an ice-cream soda and a Sunday matinee, where fear and lack of imagination choke your dreams so that you already know on the day that you’re born just where you’ll die and who it is that’ll bury you.”
The quote is from Obama’s book, “Dreams from my Father” at page 15.
How can a guy with an attitude like that win in the red states?
Edwards drew his strength from small town America. He was a product of small town America. His people are not going to support someone with Obama’s attitude toward small town America.