Final Super Tuesday polls
February 4th, 2008 – 4:48 AM by Dennis J. McGrathHere’s what the polls are saying on the weekend before Super Tuesday.
First the Republicans. Sen. John McCain continues to run strong and, if the polls reflect the actual results, he’s likely to win far more delegates than Mitt Romney or Mike Huckabee.
Of the 11 Super Tuesday states with recent polls, McCain leads or is in a dead heat in 10 of them. The only one he seems certain to lose is Massachusetts, where former Gov. Romney holds a 25-point lead.
Romney generally runs second to McCain, except in three southern states — Missouri, Oklahoma and Alabama — where Huckabee is running a close second to the Arizona senator.
In the five winner-take all state with current polling, McCain leads in all them.
In New York (101 delegates), New Jersey (52) and Connecticut (27), McCain is up by more than 20 points.
In his home state of Arizona (53 winner-take-all), in Illinois (70), and in Oklahoma (41) he leads by more 10 points. And in Missouri (58 winner-take-all), he’s ahead of Huckabee by 7 points.
California, with 173 delegates at stake, is essentially a dead heat. That’s good news for Romney, who had been trailing in the polls. But surveys since the GOP debate at the Reagan Library in California last Wednesday have been either a tie or well within the margin of sampling error, indicating that Romney has been surging.
Romney also has a good chance of picking up some of the smaller (delegate count) states in the west, including Utah, Montana and perhaps Colorado.
Currently, McCain leads in the delegate race, with 93 won so far. Romney has 77 and Huckabee has 40.
On the Democratic side, the “national primary” looks extremely close between Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton.
They are each running well ahead in the states they represent in the Senate — Clinton in New York and Obama in Illinois (Clinton’s native state). But Obama is running stronger in New York (trailing by 20 points) than Clinton is in Illinois (where she trails by 30 points).
That’s important because Democrats apportion all their delegates based on each candidate’s vote total in a state, so Obama stands to win a fair amount of New York’s 281 delegates. Illinois has 185 delegates at stake.
Georgia (103 delegates) is the only other state that Obama holds a significant lead, nearly 15 points.
Clinton, meanwhile, enjoys double-digit leads in Tennessee (85 delegates) and Massachusetts (121), although it’s unclear whether the Sen. Ted and Caroline Kennedy endorsements will boost Obama in the state.
In the other states with recent polling, the gap between Obama and Clinton is 6 points or less — meaning that they’re essentially dead heats. Those states are Connecticut (60), Missouri (88), Alamaba (60) and Arizona (67).
Ditto for the most delegate-rich state — California, with 441.
The fact that California is a toss-up shows that the momentum is shifting to Obama. As late as a couple of weeks ago, Clinton had double-digit leads in most California polls.
Currently, Clinton leads in the delegate race. Although Obama has won more pledged delegates in state primaries and caucuses (63 to Clinton’s 48), Clinton has more delegates supporting her thanks to the endorsements of Superdelegates (party leaders, members of Congress and the like). AP has Clinton at 261 total delegates, and Obama at 190.
9 Responses to "Final Super Tuesday polls"
Some inside info on the race in MN would be far more interesting than another recap of nationwide numbers - which are available all over the place. Is the Strib polling for tomorrow? Humphrey Institute? Anyone?
See
“The Real Meaning of ‘Anchor Baby’”
at
Rudely Stamped
Michael Blaine
http://www.rudelystamped.blogspot.com
Too bad the democrats can’t finish what they start.
They start on the project of trying to put the first woman in the White House, then they drop that and start trying to put the first lineal descendant of a Kenyan Luo tribesman in the Presidency.
There’s nothing wrong with either project. But don’t you think finishing what you start is a sign of character for an individual, and by extension, a party?
Of course the Obamaites will demand to know who “they” is and what right “they” have to start a project without Obama’s approval. It seems to me that the leader of the party is always the highest office holder, whether recent or current. Again, Obamaites demand to know who set that rule.
Well, what would be betterz? Should the Kennedy clan be considered the leaders of the party? JFK was a fine man, but he was not prepared for the Bay of Pigs invasion when he took office in 1960. So, despite his many charms, he was not ready (let alone right) on day one.
Personally, I don’t see that Bill Clinton has forfeited leadership of the party. He has as much right to set an agenda as any other leader.
This is just a power struggle between the terribly flawed heir of the camelot dynasty (whose excesses caused the death of an innocent girl) on the one hand, and on the other hand the somewhat less flawed founder of the same middle of the road strategy that was adopted so successfully in England by Tony Blair.
The proud and arrogant Kennedy clan interfered in the election of 1980, and the result was 12 years of unprincipled Republican rule. I fear the same will happen again.
I went to my precinct caucus. 5-1 58B, 55411 the northside of Mpls. Was greeted by an ebulient Keith Ellison. He’s become so preciously liberal you want to pinch his chubby cheeks. I’m pretty far left, but he’s embarrassing.
Anyhow, it was held at the Minneapolis Urban League. I got there at 6:05 PM hoping to get one of the 8 parking spaces they have in the lot. No luck, some old codger was backing in to the final spot. We parked on the street. I can’t imagine where the thousands that showed up after I did, parked. I had to work the same night, so all I could do was sign up, and turn in my presidential preference ballot.
The caucus blows. Why can’t MN have a primary. A vote would relect much better how the voters feel, and the senate and other races would be treated much more fairly if everyone could cast a vote. I work nights at a suburban police department, and most of the cops I work with could not participate because of their schedule. What about the people that work middle and nights?
I would have liked to show my support for Al Franken, but had to leave early.
Oh well, I suspect I was one of the few Clinton voters at the urban league that is for sure.
On a humorous side note, the republican caucus for my precinct was held at the police station - Minneapolis 4th Precinct. I find that hillarious.
Dennis,
This is great! Today, on your website.
“Southern residents asses tornado damage”
Keep up the great work!!
Is this Will Tacy?
Here you go Dennis. Please pass this on;
as·sess /əˈsɛs/ Pronunciation Key - Show Spelled Pronunciation[uh-ses] Pronunciation Key - Show IPA Pronunciation
–verb (used with object) 1. to estimate officially the value of (property, income, etc.) as a basis for taxation.
2. to fix or determine the amount of (damages, a tax, a fine, etc.): The hurricane damage was assessed at six million dollars.
3. to impose a tax or other charge on.
4. to estimate or judge the value, character, etc., of; evaluate: to assess one’s efforts.
Attn.: Walter Mondale and other superdelegates from Minnesota–
Considering the decisive MN victory for Obama, the closeness of the delegate race, and the advantage in getting this thing settled well before August, it behooves you to switch your support to Obama. If at the end of the day the winner of most delegates cannot be nominated because superdelegates favor the alternative, well, that’s a formula for big trouble.
Star Tribune to lay off 58 workers
By H.J. Cummins, Star Tribune
Last update: February 11, 2008 - 10:13 AM
Dennis,
Do you think anything will change, or do you expect idiotic decisions from your editorial staff, management, and continued left leaning BS will totally destroy the Strib?
Maybe the powers that be should listen to what the public wants. Real news without the slanted views.
I hate to say I warned you, but…….
I would like to know why anyone would
vote for Hillary Rodham Clinton?
When she a Billy left the White House they took items that did not belong to them anyone else would have gone to jail. Why has the public forgotten so soon? Maybe the public should start remembering some of the things from her past and not be so blind.