Overnight spin and predictions
April 23rd, 2008 – 6:34 AM by Dennis J. McGrathHere’s a sampling of the analysis, commentary and deft spinning in the hours since Hillary Rodham Clinton’s 10-point win in Pennsylvania.
Clinton campaign’s spin: Obama spent a gajillion dollars in Pennsylvania, went negative, can’t close the deal with voters and can’t win the key, working class states that are essential for a Democrat to win the White House.
Here’s an excerpt from the campaign’s morning e-mail:
SEN. OBAMA PLAYED TO WIN & LOST: Sen. Obama played to win Pennsylvania outright, outspending the Clinton camp by a 3 to 1 margin while sharply attacking Sen. Clinton on the stump and in television, radio, and direct mail pieces. He understood what was at stake for him in Pennsylvania, had six full weeks to make his case, went for a knockout at the end and came up short. Sen. Obama’s failure to do well raises questions about his ability to win the large, swing states that Democrats need to win in November.
Obama’s campaign spin: The Pennsylvania exit polls show an improvement over Ohio, where he also lost by 10 points. The main argument from the Obama camp is that he did better among older voters and among white men than he did in Ohio. While he lost the 60-and-older vote in Ohio by 41 points, he lost it by only 24 points last night. Among white men in Ohio, he lost by 19 points; last night, the gap was down to 12.
From his e-mail sent late last night:
In a state where we trailed by more than 25 points just a couple weeks ago, you helped close the gap to a slimmer margin than most thought possible.
Thanks to your support, with just 9 contests remaining, we’ve won more delegates, more votes, and twice as many contests…
But it’s clear the attacks are going to continue, and we’re going to continue fighting a two-front battle against John McCain and Hillary Clinton.
Josh Marshall at Talking Points Memo calls it status quo.
Lots of spin coming from both campaigns tonight. I’d say the real story is that this leaves us basically where we were. It was a decisive win for Hillary but that was the expectation. Going into tonight I think the dividing line was about 8 points. Closer than that and the story would have been that Obama didn’t win but closed the margin (which is how it looked early in the evening). A bigger margin than that and the story would be that Hillary got her big victory. So the 10 point spread is close to the dividing line but on Hillary’s side of it. There’s a lot of crowing from Hillary’s campaign tonight about a shift in momentum and doubts about Obama. Tomorrow there will be a lot of chatter from Obama’s campaign that none of that really matters because of the reality of the delegate numbers which won’t change much.
Like I said, I think that means we’re basically right where we were.
The Moderate Voice doesn’t see how Clinton can win the nomination, despite the Pennsylvania win:
It’s close to impossible for Hillary Clinton to win this nomination for reasons many others have laid out. She cannot overtake him in pledged delegates. She will almost definitely not overtake him in popular votes - even if Florida is included. She has not been gaining superdelegates since Super Tuesday even as he’s racked up about 75 new ones. Her only path to the nomination seems to be to raise enough electability doubts about Obama that superdelegates will balk at supporting him. But that may end up handing the election to John McCain.
Rich Lowry at the National Review says Clinton has turned into nothing more than an ally of John McCain:
If Hillary can’t win the nomination—and it’s clearly very, very hard for her—she’s basically a stalking horse for McCain. She’s preparing the demographic ground for McCain, by getting white working-class Democrats used to (if you will) not voting for Obama.
Paul Mirengoff at Power Line makes this observation:
Exit polls showed that only slightly more half of those who voted today consider Hillary Clinton trustworthy. Yet Clinton has won a decisive victory. Obama must be fairly unpopular in Pennsylvania.
Ed Morrissey rejects the Obama camp’s spin and says the glow has gone off the candidate for many voters:
Obama has quit resonating with white, working-class families, and small wonder why. After his Crackerquiddick comments and poor debate performance, he has left all but his true believers wondering who he is.
My own analysis, as I expressed on Dark Star’s show on WCCO Radio last night is that this is an impressive win by Clinton. It certainly gives her reason to continue on, will help ease her desperate financial situation, keeps her poised to take advantage of missteps by Obama, and it has to be creating more doubt in the minds of superdelegates about Obama’s ability to win in November.
Still, the results don’t change the fundamental problem for Clinton: Something — another “bitter” type of comment from Obama, a surprising disclosure — has to happen for her to win over the huge number of superdelegates she needs. At this point, it’s still Obama’s nomination to lose.
12 Responses to "Overnight spin and predictions"
Super Duper.
I can hardly wait to go to Iran.
Why is the mainstream media giving the Clinton campaign a free pass on their continued attempts to change how the totals should be tallied? All last night there was talk about popular votes (never mind that this diminishes caucus states) and counting Michigan and Florida (disallowed by the DNC, no campaigning, only Clinton on the MI ballot).
The fact that the MSM does not challenge these claims leads them to gain traction and validity in the public discourse. The truth is that only delegate count matters, and Obama is leading. The rest is all smoke screens.
Justin,
You should be very careful how you word your witty comments. I seriously doubt that you have been to the middle east, and am also fairly certain you have no military experience. Before you make blanket statements about potential hot spots, you should check all resources available, and not just AP reports, or the negativity that comes from this “newspaper.”
You seem young, and un-informed about a lot of topics.
I suggest you spend some time with Veterans from as many conflicts as you can. You may be surprised by conflicting reports from people who truly know.
ehenly, it’s not a “free pass” to “give those votes to Fla and Mich residents since those votes were taken away by their fearless leaders not of their own wishes. But keep this in mind ( I knoww you won’t) but in this case the principle “one man one vote” (you may have heard of that) trumps any rule (as in rules established to justify the existence of the DNC). Principles trump rules..pretty easy concept
Principle trumps rules? That is ridiculous statement. Who’s prinicples? Clinton’s? -which seem to change depending on how they suit her? I can only imagine how your “easy concept” might apply to anything else in life based on rules and laws.
Here is the doom and gloom Strib story.
New home sales plunge to the lowest level in 16 1/2 years, prices drop largest amount in 38 years
By MARTIN CRUTSINGER , Associated Press
Last update: April 24, 2008 - 9:32 AM
And here is another take;
New home sales of single family residential units in March of this year were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,213,000; 13.8 percent above the revised February figure of 1,066,000 but down 7.2 percent from the estimate in March 2005 of 1,307,000.
New home sales increased in every region except the West. That region strongly skewed national statistics with sales in that region up 35.7 percent from February. The Northeast was up 4.7 percent for the month and the Midwest and South showed growth of 10.9 and 6.9 respectively.
Once again, objective reporting by the Strib.
How’s business?
“John McCain gets tax-free disability pension
The disclosure of the Navy benefit for injuries incurred as a Vietnam POW may raise fitness questions.
By Ralph Vartabedian
Los Angeles Times Staff Writer
April 22, 2008
Sen. John McCain has long said he is in robust health and is strong enough to hike the Grand Canyon, but he also is receiving what his staff Monday termed a “disability pension” from the Navy.
When McCain released his tax return for 2007 on Friday, he separately disclosed that he received a pension of $58,358 that was not listed as income on his return.
On Monday, McCain’s staff identified the retirement benefit as a “disability pension” and said that McCain “was retired as disabled because of his limited body movements due to injuries as a POW.”
McCain campaign strategist Mark Salter said Monday night that McCain was technically disabled. “Tortured for his country — that is how he acquired his disability,” Salter said.
Certain types of military and veterans pensions are either partially or completely tax-exempt, depending on the seriousness of the disability. In McCain’s case, the exemption is 100% . . .”
I wonder what Obama’s disability claim will consist of….irritation of the stomach lining caused by excessive latte intake ?
I have some questions for the Trib reporters and editors:
How much is the RNC paying you to twist, slant and distort the news to reflect their (failed) ideologies? Or do you only get McDonald’s coupons, like their blog-bots get? And lastly, does it hurt on a physical level when you sell your soul?
I don’t really know who you are talking to Grrrrrrrrrl (an appropriate name), but I must applaud you in getting 3 somewhat disconnected questions in 3 lines of type ?
Ooops, I just saw that you were talking to the Trib. In that case, I will enthusiastically back up your questions, since the Trib and virtually all the “balanced” papers I read online are also enthusiastically happily aboard the O and O train (Okrah and Obama). We have to remember that 1/3 of Omama’s shock troops (the other two being rabid students and blacks) are the “affluent whites” and I don’t think these Trib boyz are hurting for the dough..
Tom, I just saw your spiel. Can’t believe I missed it since it contained such truths. As for me, I believe “rules” are made for those who need them. Never being a rule fan myself, nonetheless I can accept the plight of obsessive compulsives like yourself who hide behind those rules and cannot and will not see the absurdity of denying 1/10 of America (Fla and Mich) the “principle” of one man/one vote…a principle, by the way Clinton did not introduce to America. But live by your lower case rules Tom, but remember that it is an upper case principled world the Constitution is based upon not Suitcoated subspecies like the DNC