In our Minnesota Poll story today — it’s here — reporter Bob von Sternberg notes that the rise in independents is being detected nationwide.

Barack Obama

The New York Times recently pointed to the same trend nationally, and explored what impact it could have in the New Hampshire primary. Like Minnesota, New Hampshire has an open primary, allowing voters to decide as they walk into the polls which party primary they want to vote in. The Times story, here, concluded that it could hurt Hillary Rodham Clinton and John McCain, and benefit Barack Obama.

What impact could independents who lean toward one of the parties have if they decide to attend Minnesota’s Republican and DFL precinct caucuses on Feb. 5? One way to answer that question is to compare the presidential candidate support among only those Minnesota Poll respondents who declared a clear party affiliation, with the support levels when the “leaners” are included.

The conclusion: There’s no discernable difference.

No candidate in either party had more than a 2-point swing in their level of support when comparing party-regulars-only and party-regulars-and-leaners.

On the Republican side, Rudy Giuliani’s lead over John McCain was 28 percent to 24 percent among Republicans, and was 27 percent to 22 percent among Republicans and leaners.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Rodham Clinton’s advantage over Barack Obama shrinks by only one point, from a 49-23 percent gap among Democrats to a 47-22 percent gap among Democrats and leaners.

In other words, the leaners toward each party are small enough in number and they break close enough along the lines of the party regulars that, at least at this point, they don’t seem to affect the overall results for candidate preference.

Do you agree with the thrust of the New York Times story? And what role do you think independents will play in Minnesota and other states as the presidential race unfolds?

In our main Star Tribune Minnesota Poll story about whether the U.S. and Minnesota are moving in the right direction and president Bush’s job approval, Patricia Lopez explored the key reasons behind the numbers.

Here’s another interesting finding in the poll: younger adults in Minnesota are the most optimistic.

When asked whether things in the U.S. are “generally going in the right direction or do you think things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track,” here are the age-group breakdowns for those who answered “right direction:”

18-39 year olds: 29%
40-59 year olds: 22%
60 and over: 20%

Asked the same question about Minnesota, the gap between the youngest and oldest age groups was even more striking. Here are the “right direction” results for how things are going in the state:

18-39 year olds: 58%
40-59 year olds: 51%
60 and over: 38%

Barack Obama

Younger voters historically have a lower turnout on Election Day, but their participation has been on the rise. For example, turnout rates among 18-29 year olds fell from 55 percent in 1972 to about 40 percent in 1996 and 2000 — but it shot up to 49 percent in the last presidential election, according to CIRCLE, a group at the University of Maryland that studies younger voter engagement. (Turnout also spiked in 1992, when Bill Clinton was elected.) And younger voter turnout in the 2006 mid-term elections was up slightly from the 2002 mid-terms.

Our latest poll shows that Rudy Giuliani does best among 18-39 year old Republicans and Republican leaners in Minnesota. Among Democrats and leaners, Hillary Rodham Clinton leads among that age group, but she draws a higher percentage of support among older voters. And the 18-39 year olds are critical to second-place Barack Obama; they account for most of his support.

Ron Paul

Here’s a Newsweek story about Barack Obama’s efforts to win over younger voters.

And here’s a Boston Globe story about how Republican Ron Paul is energizing younger voters and has lots of friends on MySpace.

How do you think younger voters will affect the 2008 election? It’d be great to hear from some first-time voters on this question.

Idaho Sen. Larry Craig: When he pleaded guilty to disorderly conduct, he included a hand-written note to the prosecutor, thanking him for his “cooperation.” The prosecutor cites that in a memo he filed Monday opposing Craig’s attempt to

withdraw his guilty plea after his bathroom arrest at the Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport. The prosecutor says that in his pre-plea phone dealings with Craig, the Idaho Republican was “calm and collected” and his “questions intelligent and methodical.” In short, Craig knew what he was doing when he entered his guilty plea, the prosecutor argues. Here’s the Star Tribune story and here’s the Idaho Statesman’s story.

By the way, if you’re to run into Craig at the Lindbergh Terminal — for whatever reason — you’re going to have to make different travel plans. The Washington Post’s Sleuth Mary Ann Akers, who refers to Craig’s party ID as “R-Not Gay,” says Craig is now changing planes in Denver. Here’s her item.

That wacky Wakota Bridge: If you had doubts about the under-construction Wakota Bridge before the I-35W bridge collapsed, then maybe this item is actually good news: The state is considering delaying work on this troubled bridge project to free up funds for the rebuilding of the I-35 bridge. Here’s the latest development on the continuing bridge fallout.

Presidential race: The Washington Post has had a couple of blog items on The Trail about President Bush’s off-the-record and on-the-record comments about the candidates — especially Hillary Rodham Clinton

and Rudy Giuliani — hoping to succeed him. Here’s the first item and here’s the most recent item.