By quitting on the eve of the Super Tuesday “national primary,” John Edwards throws perhaps 150 delegates back into the nominating mix.

He currently has 56 delegates, and he likely would have won dozens more in southern states and elsewhere on Super Tuesday. A recent analysis on the Daily Kos concluded that Edwards would win about 90 delegates that day.

John Edwards’ last stop in St. Paul

Here’s speculation — and it’s strictly that — on Edwards’ calculation: By quitting before Super Tuesday, he enables Barack Obama to win more pledged delegates in those southern states on Tuesday, and beyond. That could be enough, in this extremely tight race between Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton — to give Obama enough committed delegates to make him the presumptive nominee by, say, early March. That would head off a convention battle, and allow Obama to start concentrating on the general election much earlier.

Agree, disagree? Other thoughts?

Before the voting started, the consensus was that the presidential nominations would be settled by the earlier-than-ever Super Tuesday on Feb. 5.

Now, with that day fast approaching, it’s looking more and more likely that nothing will be settled on Super Tuesday — in either party.

Because the 24 states voting that day have widely divergent demographics and interests, and because the delegate-distribution rules tilt toward apportioning them — rather than winner-take-all — it’s hard to see how any candidate in either party would secure the nomination that night.

At best, a candidate may take a commanding lead — but perhaps still be only about halfway to locking up the number of delegates needed for the nomination.

Here’s a look at the key rules and some possible scenarios in each party’s race on Super Tuesday.

The Democrats
There are 22 states holding Democratic primaries or caucuses, plus American Samoa and Democrats Abroad get to pick delegates, too. All totaled, there are 1,697 pledged delegates up for grabs that day, according to the AP. (That does not count the unpledged, superdelegates those states also have, but who are not selected through the Super Tuesday voting.)

The biggest states are California (370 pledged delegates), New York (232), Illinois (153) and New Jersey (107). Minnesota is the seventh largest state that day (72 pledged delegates, tied with Missouri).

In each state, 75% of the delegates are chosen at the congressional district (or lower) level, and the rest are at-large.

Also, any candidate who receives at least 15% of the vote collects delegates. You can read the rules here.

So, in order to analyze Super Tuesday, you’d need to do a congressional-district-by-congressional-district calculation.

Looking at the broad picture, Hillary Rodham Clinton should do well in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut. She’s also been leading in California.

Barack Obama should win Illinois and likely will win run strong in southern states like Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee. He also has been opening a network of field offices in mid- and smaller-sized states, including Minnesota. So he might do well in the string of midwestern and western states, countering much of Clinton’s success in the bigger states.

John Edwards should be competitive in the southern states and presumably will collect delegates in many of the midwestern and western states.

An excellent, state-by-state analysis on the Daily Kos, reaches this conclusion:

– Clinton wins 819 delegates.
– Obama wins 763.
– Edwards wins 92.

So where would that put things by the end of the night?

The AP has been tracking endorsements by superdelegates and, with the states that have voted to date, Clinton has about 200 delegates (mostly superdelegates), Obama has about 100 and Edwards has more than 50.

If the Daily Kos analysis is close to accurate, Clinton would pass the 1,000 delegate mark, Obama would have close to 900 and Edwards would have about 150.

Under this scenario, Clinton wouldn’t even have half the 2,025 delegates needed for nomination.
And more than 40 percent of the delegates would still be up for grabs as the remaining states take their turn all the way until early June.

As the Kos analysis says, this would put us in an unprecedented situation, at least in recent decades, with two candidates neck-and-neck — and a third candidate holding enough delegates to tip the balance between the other two.

The Republicans
If you think the Democratic race is tough to figure out, wait until you see the Republicans’ rules and scenarios.

First, the facts: 21 states, 1,059 delegates. Same big states as the Democrats, and Minnesota, too.

But unlike the essentially uniform Democratic rules, the Republican delegate-selection rules vary from state to state.

A key difference is that 10 states are winner-take-all, including two of the biggest states — New York and New Jersey. All totaled, those 10 states have 419 delegates, or about a fifth of all delegates up that day.

But the remaining states have a hodgepodge of rules, from Massachusetts with statewide proportional to Tennessee with proportional distribution at the district level (unless the district winner exceeds 50%, in which it’s winner take all) plus a proportional distribution of at-large/bonus delegates (unless the winner exceeds 50% statewide, in which case it’s winner take all for those delegates).

Like the Democrats, it’s hard to see any of the leading Republicans running away with it on Super Tuesday. The mix of rules and the scattering of states in different regions of the country seems to preclude that.

One real possibility is the resurgence of Rudy Giuliani. This is the day his national strategy succeeds or fails. He could very well win the combined 153 delegates in winner-take-all New York and New Jersey. Throw in Connecticut, and he wins 180 delegates. And if he does well in Florida on Jan. 29, he could be back among the frontrunners.

Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson should collect a lot of southern delegates, although John McCain could do well among the military veterans and moderates in those states, as he did in winning South Carolina.

Mitt Romney should do well in some of the western states.

And right now, McCain is leading in California polls. In addition, his state, Arizona, is voting on Super Tuesday.

The upshot is that if there’s a fairly even division of delegates on that day, we could have a situation where no GOP candidate has more than about a quarter of the 1,191 delegates needed for nomination.

I haven’t seen a current, detailed, state-by-state analysis of the Republican Super Tuesday race, like Kos has for the Dems. If anyone is aware of one, please share it.

In the meantime, Super Tuesday is shaping up a fascinating day, but perhaps not the day of decision that it initially appeared to be.

I’ll close by passing along this summation of Super Tuesday by my colleague Will Tacy, editor of StarTribune.com: “It’s all crazy and the Republicans’ process is even crazier than the Democrats’ and trying to predict anything makes your head hurt.”

Even so, anyone game for making predictions — for Super Tuesday and beyond?

Back in the summer, Sen. John McCain was on the verge of slipping down into single digits in New Hampshire polls. In July, August and September, he polled 10 to 12 percent in four consecutive polls by different pollsters.

Sen. John McCain and his wife Cindy in N.H. (Photo by Andrew Foxwell)

Now he’s leading the pack with triple the level of support he had in the summer.

Two polls released over the weekend show him with 33 percent (CNN/WMUR/UNH) and 35 percent (Concord Monitor). In both polls, the Arizona Republican holds a 6-point lead over Mitt Romney.

Iowa winner Mike Huckabee still doesn’t seem to be a threat to win New Hampshire, where there are fewer evangelical voters. Huckabee finishes in third place in the Concord Monitor poll with 13 percent, ahead of Rudy Giuliani. In the CNN poll, Giuliani finishes in third with 14 percent, just ahead of Huckabee.

Those two polls show the Democratic race a dead heat between Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton. It’s 34-33 percent for Obama in the Concord Monitor poll and 33-33 in the CNN poll.

Obama in N.H. this weekend (Photo by Lauren Melcher)

John Edwards lags at 23 percent in the Concord poll and 20 percent in CNN’s.

A third weekend poll, by American Research Group, has McCain up by 14 and Obama up by 12 points. But this organization regularly produces wild results. It showed Clinton up by 9 on the eve of the Iowa caucuses, although it also showed Huckabee up by 5 in that poll.

An interesting dynamic to watch in this race is the battle between McCain and Obama for the independent vote. In New Hampshire, independent voters can choose to vote in either the Republican or Democratic primaries. In 2000, they were drawn to the Republican contest and were the key to McCain’s victory over George Bush.

But this year, many independent voters are indicating they’ll vote in the Democratic primary for Obama. If that happens in large numbers, it could bleed votes away from McCain.

With just four days to go before the Iowa Caucuses, Mitt Romney appears to catching Mike Huckabee in the Republican race, while the Democratic race remains extremely tight.

On the Republican side, it looked just a couple of weeks ago like Huckabee was running away with the contest. Now, Romney’s attack ads against Huckabee on immigration and crime appear to be taking a toll on the former Arkansas governor.

Last week, Huckabee held an average 5.2 percentage point lead in the six most recent polls. Now, Romney holds an average 0.6 percentage point lead in the five most recent polls.

But the polls show widely different results. For example, the Quad City Times poll taken Dec. 26-27, shows Huckabee up by 7 points (34-27 percent) over Romney. Yet, the American Research Group poll taken Dec. 26-28 shows Romney leading by 9 points (32-23) over Huckabee. (A week ago, American Research Group had Huckabee ahead by 8 points, so this poll is showing a dramatic reversal.)

None of the other major GOP candidates are showing much movement — with all of them pulling support of about 11 percent or less.

In the Democratic race, it continues to be a tight three-way race. Averaging the last five polls, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards are all within 2.6 points of one another — well within the margins of error. The averages show Clinton with 28.4, Obama with 26.4 and Edwards with 25.8 percent.

Those numbers are probably most encouraging to Edwards; he’s on the upswing in the past week, while Clinton and Obama have tipped downward ever so slightly.

In New Hampshire, it’s a two-way tie between Clinton and Obama. On the Republican side, Romney leads, but Sen. John McCain has the big momentum.

For more details on these and other polls, go to Real Clear Politics.

And finally, if you haven’t checked out our new blog, Oles in ‘08, you’ve got a lot of fun reading ahead of you. Students from St. Olaf College are working on campaigns in New Hampshire and they’ve written about their encounters with candidates — impressed with McCain, bored by Rudy Giuliani — and with voters, many of whom sound like they’re on the breaking point from the incessant phone calls and door-knocks from the campaigns. It’s great, insightful and fun reading. Check it out here — Oles in ‘08.

Polls in Iowa continue to show Mike Huckabee in the lead, but his margin has narrowed in the past week.

In the Democratic race, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton appears to be making a comeback.

Sen. John McCain

Last week, Huckabee led in the last four polls, with leads ranging from 5 points to 16 points. Now, looking at the six most recent polls, his biggest lead is 8 points — in ABC/Washington Post, CNN and American Research Group. The American Research Group poll was the most recent, taken Dec. 16-19.

The most striking thing about that poll is Sen. John McCain’s amazing surge — from 9 percent at the end of November to 20 percent now. It also shows Mitt Romney in freefall, down to 17 percent.

But Strategic Vision (Dec. 16-18), showed Romney doing much better. He had 25 percent, to Huckabee’s 31 percent, and McCain was way back at 8 percent. Strategic Vision also had Fred Thompson at 16 percent, far higher than any other poll had him.

And one poll, Insider Advantage (Dec. 16-17), had Romney in first, by a statistically insignificent 3 points over Huckabee.

Among Democrats, Clinton appears to have made up ground on Sen. Barack Obama. A week ago, Obama held leads of 8 and 9 points over Clinton. Now, the average of the six most recent polls shows the race a tie. Clinton comes in first in three polls (American Research Group, CNN and Rasmussen), with insignificant leads of 2 to 4 points, and Obama lands in first place in the other three (Strategic Vision, Insider Advantage and ABC/Wash Post), with equally insignificant leads of 1 to 4 points.

In New Hampshire, Romney continues to hold the lead, but it’s slipping. Last week, he led in the last four polls by 12-15 points. Now, in the four most recent polls, he holds leads of 3, 4 and 7 points, and the remaining poll (American Research Group) is a tie with McCain.

One thing that hasn’t changed is Huckabee’s support — which is virtually unchanged at about 10 percent.

Among Democrats in New Hampshire, the race remains just as confusing as it was a week ago. Clinton leads in three of the five most recent polls. But in the last two, one was a tie and Obama held a slight edge in the other — just a 2-point lead.

In our story today by political reporter Bob von Sternberg, he notes the miracle of the season: all the candidates have shelved their attack ads and are flooding the airwaves with joyous, holiday-themed and upbeat ads.

If you lament negativity in political ads, enjoy this brief respite. Here, for your viewing pleasure, are the ads brimming with good will.

First the holiday-themed ads.

Here’s John McCain’s ad, called “My Christmas Story,” about a touching gesture an enemy guard made on a Christmas Day when McCain was a P.O.W.

Here’s John Edwards’ ad, in which he says this is “the season of miracles, and faith and love.”

Here’s Mike Huckabee’s ad, with a not-so-subliminal white cross in the background, formed by bookshelves.

In Barack Obama’s ad, titled “Friendship,” his wife and daughters are featured.

Rudy Giuliani mixes a dose of humor into his holiday ad, titled “Same Gift.”

Hillary Rodham Clinton spends billions on Christmas gifts in her ad, titled “Presents.”

Now, the upbeat ones without the strong holiday connection.

Joe Biden’s is called “January Night.”

Mitt Romney’s ad, “Searched,” is a testimonial from a former business partner, who describes how Romney shut down their business and brought all the employees to New York City to search for the partner’s missing daughter.

Yesterday, I pointed out the Mike Huckabee ad wishing viewers a Merry Christmas, and I noted the controversy around it.

Here’s another new holiday ad, this one from John Edwards, which he posted on You Tube a couple of hours ago.

He doesn’t utter the word Christmas, and there’s no bright white cross in the background, as is the case in Huckabee’s ad.

But the message is unmistakable. There’s a Christmas tree, but no symbols of other faiths. And he talks about this being “the season of miracles, and faith and love.”

Watch the ad, and tell us what you think about it, especially as it compares with Huckabee’s.

The landscape continues to shift rapidly in Iowa, where recent polls show Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee with gaps over their rivals.

Or, in Obama’s case, maybe not.

Barack Obama

Polling in advance of a caucus is a challenge, because there are a smaller number of caucus-goers than, say, voters in a general election, or even a primary. About 150,000 Democrats and 80,000 Republicans are expected to show up on the night of Thursday, Jan. 3.

Trying to figure out which candidate people support is merely the second task for pollsters. The first task is figuring out who will give up Grey’s Anatomy to do their civic duty.

So it’s not a big surprise that polls are showing a wide spread in results.

In Iowa, for example, Strategic Vision found Obama leading Hillary Rodham Clinton 33 percent to 25 percent, just barely within the poll’s margin of sampling error (The poll was taken 12/08-10; with 600 Likely Voters; with a MoE +/-4.5).

And the Quad City Times had Obama up by 9 points, with 33 percent, to Clinton’s and John Edwards’ 24 percent (12/10-13; 500 LV; MoE 4.5).

But another poll taken at about the same time, by The Hotline, shows the race a tie between Obama and Clinton at 27, with Edwards trailing at 22. (12/07-12; 569 LV; MoE 4)

Finally, Rasmussen has Clinton in the lead 29-26 over Obama, with Edwards again at 22. (12/10; 1106 LV; MoE 3).

On the Republican side, it’s a lot less complicated. It’s Huckabee, Huckabee, Huckabee and Huckabee. His margins range from 5 points (Strategic Vision) to 16 points (Rasmussen) in the last four polls. The big question for Huckabee is whether his newfound popularity will be matched by his supporters actually showing up at caucuses.

Mike Huckabee

Mitt Romney receives 22 to 25 percent support in the polls, Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson are at about 10 percent, and John McCain is at about 6 percent.

In New Hampshire, it’s a different story, with Romney holding leads of 12 to 15 points in the last four polls (FOX News, Concord Monitor, Rassmussen, Suffolk U/WHDH.) McCain comes in second in three of the four.

But the Democratic race is a muddle in New Hampshire, just as it is in Iowa. Clinton leads by 7 points (Suffolk U/WHDH) and 9 points (FOX), but Obama leads by 1 (Concord) and 3 (Rasmussen).

Nationwide, it’s as it’s always been — Clinton and Giuliani leading their respective fields, although Huckabee now has gained a toehold in one poll — Rasmussen’s 4-day tracking poll, where he holds a 2-point margin over Giuliani.

For more on these and other polls, go to Real Clear Politics, an excellent resource for polls.

In her story today, Patricia Lopez describes how the presidential campaign in Iowa spills over the border into southern Minnesota. That includes a blizzard of ads landing in Minnesotan’s living rooms.

Here’s a sample of the ads that the leading candidates are airing in Iowa. Take a look at them and then weigh in with your reactions.

Here’s Obama’s ad on education, titled “Chances I Had.”

Here is John Edwards’s “20 Generations” ad, in which he seeks to establish himself as a spirited fighter against greed and corruption, in behalf of the little guy.

Here are two Clinton ads. This one is called “New Beginning.”

And this one features Retired Gen. Wesley Clark.

On the Republican side, Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee are battling it out — in the polls and on the airwaves.

Here’s Mitt Romney’s ad attacking Huckabee on immigration.

And here’s another Romney ad called “Not Politically Correct,” in which he attempts to reassure conservatives on some key issues.

Here’s Huckabee talking about securing the borders.

And here’s the ad featuring actor Chuck Norris that no doubt helped people warm up to Huckabee.

What do you think about these ads?

The consensus analysis of last night’s Democratic debate was that Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton regained her balance and appeared forceful, confident and energized.

But an interesting, and less explored, twist was the audience. It sounded awfully partisan for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, and perhaps affected the countours of the debate.

Here’s what Slate’s John Dickerson wrote: “When Obama and Edwards tried to force Clinton into a stumble, they were booed by the occasionally raucous audience. That seemed to make them back off.

“Who knows what motivated the booing. It could have been Hillary partisans. It could have been that the audience didn’t like to hear the attacks. Clinton, for her part, only counter-punched, which may be why when she got pointed the crowd tolerated it. Or it could be that the people in the room, like most Democratic voters, wanted to hear the candidates on the issues.”

Debate organizers typically try to ensure an evenly-balanced audience — giving an equal number of tickets to each campaign, for example. Of course, an evenly-divided crowd doesn’t ensure that all the factions will behave the same way in the hall.

When Sen. Barack Obama spoke sometimes, you could hear some in the audience calling out and interrupting him. It sounded like heckling. And when he stumbled through his answer on driver’s licenses for illegal immigration, and CNN’s Wolf Blitzer called him on it, the crowd laughed heartily.

When Clinton slapped Edwards with the charge that he was engaged in “mud-slinging,” there was no disapproval from the audience.

An energized audience, with its applause and hollering, no doubt enlivens the debate from a viewer’s perspective. But at what price?

Were Obama and Edwards done a disservice by having a live audience that was more on Clinton’s side than on theirs?