For former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, the New Hampshire primary was in his backyard. Tomorrow’s Michigan primary brings him back home.

Romney was raised in Michigan, where his father George was an auto executive and governor. Romney relies on an old black and white photo of him and his dad as the closing shot in an ad he’s running in the state.

Mitt Romney with his parents George and Lenore (AP Photo)

On the eve of the election, here’s a summary of the race in Michigan.

POLLS
The polls show an extremely tight contest, with Romney and Sen. John McCain battling for first place. But former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee is also a factor; he generally trails in third place, but easily within striking distance of winning the race.

Two polls released Sunday show Romney with leads of 8 points (Mason-Dixon) and 5 points (Detroit Free Press). Meanwhile, the Detroit News and Mitchell Research show McCain up by 1 point.

ENDORSEMENTS
McCain secured the endorsements of the Detroit Free Press and the Detroit News.

Romney won the recommendations of the Grand Rapids Press and the Oakland Press.

DELEGATES
Normally, 60 delegates would be at stake, but because Michigan was among the states that moved up its primary without permission, the Republican Party has said it would seat only half the state’s delegates at the national covention in St. Paul. So that leaves 30 delegates up for grabs.

On the Democratic side, the party voted in December to strip Michigan of all its delegates to the national covention in Denver. That’s why the Democratic contest in Michigan is meaningless. Barack Obama and John Edwards won’t even be on the ballot.

PRIMARY RULES
Voters don’t have to be registered in either party to vote in that party’s primary; they simply walk into the polling location and ask for a Republican or a Democratic ballot. The lack of a true Democratic contest frees Michigan Democrats to support their favorite Republican — which most likely would be McCain — or to cause havoc by voting for the Republican they consider the least electable come November.

THE 2000 PRIMARY
The last time there was a contested GOP primary in Michigan, John McCain won. He defeated George W. Bush, 50 percent to 43 percent.

Back in the summer, Sen. John McCain was on the verge of slipping down into single digits in New Hampshire polls. In July, August and September, he polled 10 to 12 percent in four consecutive polls by different pollsters.

Sen. John McCain and his wife Cindy in N.H. (Photo by Andrew Foxwell)

Now he’s leading the pack with triple the level of support he had in the summer.

Two polls released over the weekend show him with 33 percent (CNN/WMUR/UNH) and 35 percent (Concord Monitor). In both polls, the Arizona Republican holds a 6-point lead over Mitt Romney.

Iowa winner Mike Huckabee still doesn’t seem to be a threat to win New Hampshire, where there are fewer evangelical voters. Huckabee finishes in third place in the Concord Monitor poll with 13 percent, ahead of Rudy Giuliani. In the CNN poll, Giuliani finishes in third with 14 percent, just ahead of Huckabee.

Those two polls show the Democratic race a dead heat between Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton. It’s 34-33 percent for Obama in the Concord Monitor poll and 33-33 in the CNN poll.

Obama in N.H. this weekend (Photo by Lauren Melcher)

John Edwards lags at 23 percent in the Concord poll and 20 percent in CNN’s.

A third weekend poll, by American Research Group, has McCain up by 14 and Obama up by 12 points. But this organization regularly produces wild results. It showed Clinton up by 9 on the eve of the Iowa caucuses, although it also showed Huckabee up by 5 in that poll.

An interesting dynamic to watch in this race is the battle between McCain and Obama for the independent vote. In New Hampshire, independent voters can choose to vote in either the Republican or Democratic primaries. In 2000, they were drawn to the Republican contest and were the key to McCain’s victory over George Bush.

But this year, many independent voters are indicating they’ll vote in the Democratic primary for Obama. If that happens in large numbers, it could bleed votes away from McCain.

With just four days to go before the Iowa Caucuses, Mitt Romney appears to catching Mike Huckabee in the Republican race, while the Democratic race remains extremely tight.

On the Republican side, it looked just a couple of weeks ago like Huckabee was running away with the contest. Now, Romney’s attack ads against Huckabee on immigration and crime appear to be taking a toll on the former Arkansas governor.

Last week, Huckabee held an average 5.2 percentage point lead in the six most recent polls. Now, Romney holds an average 0.6 percentage point lead in the five most recent polls.

But the polls show widely different results. For example, the Quad City Times poll taken Dec. 26-27, shows Huckabee up by 7 points (34-27 percent) over Romney. Yet, the American Research Group poll taken Dec. 26-28 shows Romney leading by 9 points (32-23) over Huckabee. (A week ago, American Research Group had Huckabee ahead by 8 points, so this poll is showing a dramatic reversal.)

None of the other major GOP candidates are showing much movement — with all of them pulling support of about 11 percent or less.

In the Democratic race, it continues to be a tight three-way race. Averaging the last five polls, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards are all within 2.6 points of one another — well within the margins of error. The averages show Clinton with 28.4, Obama with 26.4 and Edwards with 25.8 percent.

Those numbers are probably most encouraging to Edwards; he’s on the upswing in the past week, while Clinton and Obama have tipped downward ever so slightly.

In New Hampshire, it’s a two-way tie between Clinton and Obama. On the Republican side, Romney leads, but Sen. John McCain has the big momentum.

For more details on these and other polls, go to Real Clear Politics.

And finally, if you haven’t checked out our new blog, Oles in ‘08, you’ve got a lot of fun reading ahead of you. Students from St. Olaf College are working on campaigns in New Hampshire and they’ve written about their encounters with candidates — impressed with McCain, bored by Rudy Giuliani — and with voters, many of whom sound like they’re on the breaking point from the incessant phone calls and door-knocks from the campaigns. It’s great, insightful and fun reading. Check it out here — Oles in ‘08.

St. Olaf students blogging from New Hampshire had some amazing experiences on their first day on the presidential campaign trail.

Incredibly, two volunteering on the McCain campaign met the candidate himself in the first hour or so on the job. They’ve got pictures to prove it. Other students write about their experiences phone-calling or knocking on voters’ doors. Some voters are eager to engage the students, others turn a cold shoulder.

You can find their reports in our new blog, Oles in ‘08. The blog began yesterday, the first day the political science students began interning on the presidential campaigns in New Hampshire. Here’s a more detailed explanation of what the students are doing and about their blog.

The assassination of Benazir Bhutto today is rocking a region where whatever stability existed came from the U.S. backing of the Afghan government and Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf’s iron rule.

What do you think Bhutto’s killing portends for this region? And what should the United States do in response to her death? Other thoughts?

Here’s an update, added to this post shortly after noon.

Star Tribune reporter Bob von Sternberg was covering Sen. John McCain in Des Moines, Iowa, this morning, and he filed this report:

DES MOINES — Sen. John McCain, who is back here running hard where nobody expected him to compete, was asked about the Bhutto assassination at a campaign event this morning.

McCain was bombarded with questions from reporters as to whether the assassination plays to his strongest suit, national security and defense issues.

“No one would want an event like this to happen,” McCain said, but added: “It shows you need a steady hand at the tiller, because this situation is fraught with danger and this is a time of great crisis.”

McCain addressed Bhutto’s death in his initial remarks this morning at an Elk’s Club rally at West Des Moines, the first of four stops he was making in Iowa today. He told about 300 people: “This is a great tragedy. The only winners in this are the radical Islamist extremists. I don’t know what’s going to happen in Pakistan right now and this is a very tense and difficult time.”

The United States, McCain said, should do “everything within our power to stabilize the situation, short of military power.”

President Musharraf needs to bring about calm, McCain said, without cracking down severely. If he does so “he’ll get credit from the people of Pakistan. A chaotic situation is not in the interests of the Pakistani people or in the interests of the American people…”

“There are lots of layers to this onion and it has to be handled with care, McCain said. “I know the area, I know the people. I could handle it.”

Polls in Iowa continue to show Mike Huckabee in the lead, but his margin has narrowed in the past week.

In the Democratic race, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton appears to be making a comeback.

Sen. John McCain

Last week, Huckabee led in the last four polls, with leads ranging from 5 points to 16 points. Now, looking at the six most recent polls, his biggest lead is 8 points — in ABC/Washington Post, CNN and American Research Group. The American Research Group poll was the most recent, taken Dec. 16-19.

The most striking thing about that poll is Sen. John McCain’s amazing surge — from 9 percent at the end of November to 20 percent now. It also shows Mitt Romney in freefall, down to 17 percent.

But Strategic Vision (Dec. 16-18), showed Romney doing much better. He had 25 percent, to Huckabee’s 31 percent, and McCain was way back at 8 percent. Strategic Vision also had Fred Thompson at 16 percent, far higher than any other poll had him.

And one poll, Insider Advantage (Dec. 16-17), had Romney in first, by a statistically insignificent 3 points over Huckabee.

Among Democrats, Clinton appears to have made up ground on Sen. Barack Obama. A week ago, Obama held leads of 8 and 9 points over Clinton. Now, the average of the six most recent polls shows the race a tie. Clinton comes in first in three polls (American Research Group, CNN and Rasmussen), with insignificant leads of 2 to 4 points, and Obama lands in first place in the other three (Strategic Vision, Insider Advantage and ABC/Wash Post), with equally insignificant leads of 1 to 4 points.

In New Hampshire, Romney continues to hold the lead, but it’s slipping. Last week, he led in the last four polls by 12-15 points. Now, in the four most recent polls, he holds leads of 3, 4 and 7 points, and the remaining poll (American Research Group) is a tie with McCain.

One thing that hasn’t changed is Huckabee’s support — which is virtually unchanged at about 10 percent.

Among Democrats in New Hampshire, the race remains just as confusing as it was a week ago. Clinton leads in three of the five most recent polls. But in the last two, one was a tie and Obama held a slight edge in the other — just a 2-point lead.

In our story today by political reporter Bob von Sternberg, he notes the miracle of the season: all the candidates have shelved their attack ads and are flooding the airwaves with joyous, holiday-themed and upbeat ads.

If you lament negativity in political ads, enjoy this brief respite. Here, for your viewing pleasure, are the ads brimming with good will.

First the holiday-themed ads.

Here’s John McCain’s ad, called “My Christmas Story,” about a touching gesture an enemy guard made on a Christmas Day when McCain was a P.O.W.

Here’s John Edwards’ ad, in which he says this is “the season of miracles, and faith and love.”

Here’s Mike Huckabee’s ad, with a not-so-subliminal white cross in the background, formed by bookshelves.

In Barack Obama’s ad, titled “Friendship,” his wife and daughters are featured.

Rudy Giuliani mixes a dose of humor into his holiday ad, titled “Same Gift.”

Hillary Rodham Clinton spends billions on Christmas gifts in her ad, titled “Presents.”

Now, the upbeat ones without the strong holiday connection.

Joe Biden’s is called “January Night.”

Mitt Romney’s ad, “Searched,” is a testimonial from a former business partner, who describes how Romney shut down their business and brought all the employees to New York City to search for the partner’s missing daughter.

The landscape continues to shift rapidly in Iowa, where recent polls show Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee with gaps over their rivals.

Or, in Obama’s case, maybe not.

Barack Obama

Polling in advance of a caucus is a challenge, because there are a smaller number of caucus-goers than, say, voters in a general election, or even a primary. About 150,000 Democrats and 80,000 Republicans are expected to show up on the night of Thursday, Jan. 3.

Trying to figure out which candidate people support is merely the second task for pollsters. The first task is figuring out who will give up Grey’s Anatomy to do their civic duty.

So it’s not a big surprise that polls are showing a wide spread in results.

In Iowa, for example, Strategic Vision found Obama leading Hillary Rodham Clinton 33 percent to 25 percent, just barely within the poll’s margin of sampling error (The poll was taken 12/08-10; with 600 Likely Voters; with a MoE +/-4.5).

And the Quad City Times had Obama up by 9 points, with 33 percent, to Clinton’s and John Edwards’ 24 percent (12/10-13; 500 LV; MoE 4.5).

But another poll taken at about the same time, by The Hotline, shows the race a tie between Obama and Clinton at 27, with Edwards trailing at 22. (12/07-12; 569 LV; MoE 4)

Finally, Rasmussen has Clinton in the lead 29-26 over Obama, with Edwards again at 22. (12/10; 1106 LV; MoE 3).

On the Republican side, it’s a lot less complicated. It’s Huckabee, Huckabee, Huckabee and Huckabee. His margins range from 5 points (Strategic Vision) to 16 points (Rasmussen) in the last four polls. The big question for Huckabee is whether his newfound popularity will be matched by his supporters actually showing up at caucuses.

Mike Huckabee

Mitt Romney receives 22 to 25 percent support in the polls, Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson are at about 10 percent, and John McCain is at about 6 percent.

In New Hampshire, it’s a different story, with Romney holding leads of 12 to 15 points in the last four polls (FOX News, Concord Monitor, Rassmussen, Suffolk U/WHDH.) McCain comes in second in three of the four.

But the Democratic race is a muddle in New Hampshire, just as it is in Iowa. Clinton leads by 7 points (Suffolk U/WHDH) and 9 points (FOX), but Obama leads by 1 (Concord) and 3 (Rasmussen).

Nationwide, it’s as it’s always been — Clinton and Giuliani leading their respective fields, although Huckabee now has gained a toehold in one poll — Rasmussen’s 4-day tracking poll, where he holds a 2-point margin over Giuliani.

For more on these and other polls, go to Real Clear Politics, an excellent resource for polls.

The GOP debate this week produced lots of fireworks, so here’s a look at follow-up stories and websites that try to sort out the facts behind the charges.

At PolitiFact.com, the Truth-O-Meter and the Attack File concludes:
Rudy Giuliani’s claim that Mitt Romney failed to take action against sanctuary cities: Mostly true.
Mitt Romney’s claim that Giuliani welcomed illegal immigrants: True.
Mike Huckabee’s explanation about school benefits for children of illegal immigants: Barely true.
Mitt Romney (aka Bill Buckner) muffed an easy grounder: He got a key Red Sox stat wrong.
Mitt Romney’s stat on out-of-wedlock African-American births: True.
Ron Paul’s claim on receiving campaign donations from military members: True.
John McCain’s claim on saving taxpayers $2 billion: True.

Here’s an AP story that examines whether New York was a sanctuary city under Guiliani. It makes a compelling case that NYC followed the same policies toward illegal immigrants as do cities that proudly proclaim themselves as sanctuary cities. In NYC, the policy was put in place long before Giuliani became mayor, but he vigorously protected the policy.

Giuliani took a swipe at Romney, saying he had a “sanctuary mansion” because illegal immigrants worked at the former governor’s home in Massachusetts. Here’s the original Boston Globe story, which was published nearly a year ago.

This first AP story and this second AP story explore whether Rudy Giuliani hid the costs of police protection for him while he had extramarital trysts with his now-wife, Judity Nathan.

Here’s the original Politico.com report, and here’s Politico’s next-day follow-up.

Here’s Guiliani explaining away the charge, on CBS news. (Be warned: 30-second ad precedes the report.)

Who do you think was “more truthful” and who was “less truthful” in the debate?

Just a few months ago, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee shared the anonymity of the handful of other back-of-the-pack Republican presidential candidates. In recent weeks, he’s registered a stunning climb in the polls.

Mike Huckabee

And after Wednesday night’s You Tube/CNN debate, he’s bound to get another huge boost — perhaps enough to propel him to victory in Iowa.

He had what appears, at least in the immediate aftermath, to have been a breakthrough performance. He was articulate, funny, homespun and perhaps more than any other candidate he exuded a confidence and sense of comfort in who he is and what he believes. (John McCain and Fred Thompson came close behind.)

Perhaps Huckabee struggled a bit to explain his support for scholarships for children of illegal aliens. But after that he scored on virtually every question. He was direct and unapologetic and registered high on the likeability scale.

Mitt Romney may have fared the worst. He’s already suspect among many Republicans for his evolution on key issues. And his performance could not have helped any in allaying those concerns. He stumbled, stammered and didn’t seem to know what he believed on some key issues, and at times his first instinct seemed to be to duck and weave.

Some other observations:

I’ll take the citizen-submitted video format and Anderson Cooper over Wolf Blitzer and Tim Russert any day.

Even so, while the questions were generally good, this batch of videos wasn’t as creative or surprising as the batch used in the Democratic debate.

I was surprised they didn’t use Minnesota’s Billiam the Snowman, given that this debate almost didn’t happen because of opposition to Billiam.

I was disappointed that they didn’t use a Red State Update video question, as they did in the Democratic debate. Those guys are hilarious. To see their work, go to their website here.

But this video, I thought, did stand out.

So what did you think of the debate? Do you think Huckabee will get the biggest bounce? And what did you think of Thompson submitting an attack ad for his own video? What else caught your attention?