Mitt and Ann Romney

In a new TV ad that will start running today in Iowa, Ann Romney says: “Mitt says his greatest success is being able to say ‘I have been a good father, and a good husband.’ ”

That message will be heard loud and clear by those attending the Values Voters conference in Washington today. And Rudy Giuliani will take note, too.

Romney and Giuliani, in fact all of the GOP presidential candidates, are scheduled to speak to this gathering of Christian conservatives, sponsored by groups such as the Family Research Council and Focus on the Family.

James Dobson, founder of Focus on the Family, was among a number of conservative leaders who recently talked openly of splitting from the Republican Party and backing a third-party candidate if Giuliani wins the GOP nomination. Giuliani’s support of abortion rights and gay rights, as well as his un-Romney-like personal life, is causing great unease among many conservatives.

The timing of Romney’s ad, which features his wife and a blur of active, happy Romney kids and grandkids, seemingly more than there are enrolled in SCHIP, is no coincidence. You can see the ad, titled “Our Home,” here.

In his speech tonight, Romney is expected to stress family themes, the Boston Globe reports in this story.

Here are a number of other recent stories and analyses about what’s at stake at the gathering.

The New York Times says in its Caucus blog that Romney and Fred Thompson have the most riding on the conference, because many conservatives have doubts about them, too.

Rudy Giuliani in Minneapolis

The American Prospect’s Adele M. Stan gives Giuliani this much: “the guy’s got moxie.” She also looks back at last years Values Voters Summit.

The Tory Anarchist (Daniel McCarthy, a contributing editor to The American Conservative) says in this posting that the religious right really hasn’t gone after Giuliani in the way they did, for example, in 1995 when they quashed Collin Powell. The reason: “they know they can’t stop him.”

If there is a third-party run, it won’t be John McCain leading the way. He pledged on Thursday to back the nominee. Here’s the AP story on Politically Connected.

Given that this key Republican constituency has deep concerns about Giuliani, can he win the GOP nomination?

Is he the GOP’s strongest candidate, or does a Giuliani nomination ensure a fracture within the party and guarantee a Democratic victory?

Or is there a third-party coalition — and a candidate to lead it — that could win?

Al Franken

Even before today’s official deadline for federal candidates to report their fundraising numbers, one thing is abundantly clear: the left is raking in big money.

That’s true nationally and it’s the case in Minnesota, too.

Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Al Franken is enjoying being on the receiving end of this leftist largess.

Meanwhile, Sen. Norm Coleman and U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann, both Republicans, are on the receiving end of the spending by leftist groups. They’re both the targets of new television or radio ads critizing them over Iraq (Coleman) and the children’s health insurance battle (Bachmann).

The advantage the left is enjoying is highlighted at OpenSecrets.org, which tracks political money. The OpenSecrets overview is here. From the presidential race to Senate and House races to issue-oriented groups, the left comes out on top.

Norm Coleman

Consider:

Democratic presidential candidates raised an average of $2.2 million to the Republicans’ $1.2 million.

The top two Democrats – Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama — raised a combined $122 million. The top Republicans — Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani — raised $80 million.

Nine out of 10 of the top overall donors have given more than half their money in 2007 to Democrats.

However you slice it, the Democrats end up with the biggest piece of the pie.

And that money is flowing into Minnesota in a big way. OpenSecrets ranks the Minnesota Senate race as the second most expensive in the nation. The Texas Senate race ranked first with $18.5 million raised by the candidates combined, and Minnesota followed close behind with $16.2 million. A distant third was Massachusetts with $8.2 million.

In the most recent quarter, Franken, the Democratic challenger, achieved the rare feat of outraising the incumbent, Coleman. Here’s the Star Tribune story about Franken and Coleman’s fundraising, and here’s our story about money raised by Mike Ciresi.
The radio ad aimed at Coleman is the work of Keeping America’s Promise, which is Sen. John Kerry’s political action committee. Coleman is one of six Republican senators targeted. You can find out more about Kerry’s effort here. And here is Coleman’s campaign website and here is the page we’ve created about him here on Politically Connected.

Michele Bachmann

While Coleman is being hit by a well-known figure, Bachmann is in the sights of a group that isn’t a household name, but it is one of the biggest left-leaning money groups — the Service Employees International Union (SEIU), with 1.9 million members. The SEIU is part of the coalition paying for the TV ads pressing Bachmann to vote later this week to override President Bush’s veto of the children’s health insurance program.

The SEIU’s advocacy arm (a 527 organization), has raised more money than any other 527 group this election cycle, with $6.7 million, according to OpenSecrets. The closest right wing 527 group: GOPAC with $3.7 million. Here’s SEIU’s website and here’s Bachmann’s campaign website and here’s GOPAC’s site.

OpenSecrets cites the fact that Democrats control Congress as a key reason for their fundraising advantage.

Do you think that explains what’s happening? And why do you think the Minnesota Senate race is drawing so much money?

In our main Star Tribune Minnesota Poll story about whether the U.S. and Minnesota are moving in the right direction and president Bush’s job approval, Patricia Lopez explored the key reasons behind the numbers.

Here’s another interesting finding in the poll: younger adults in Minnesota are the most optimistic.

When asked whether things in the U.S. are “generally going in the right direction or do you think things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track,” here are the age-group breakdowns for those who answered “right direction:”

18-39 year olds: 29%
40-59 year olds: 22%
60 and over: 20%

Asked the same question about Minnesota, the gap between the youngest and oldest age groups was even more striking. Here are the “right direction” results for how things are going in the state:

18-39 year olds: 58%
40-59 year olds: 51%
60 and over: 38%

Barack Obama

Younger voters historically have a lower turnout on Election Day, but their participation has been on the rise. For example, turnout rates among 18-29 year olds fell from 55 percent in 1972 to about 40 percent in 1996 and 2000 — but it shot up to 49 percent in the last presidential election, according to CIRCLE, a group at the University of Maryland that studies younger voter engagement. (Turnout also spiked in 1992, when Bill Clinton was elected.) And younger voter turnout in the 2006 mid-term elections was up slightly from the 2002 mid-terms.

Our latest poll shows that Rudy Giuliani does best among 18-39 year old Republicans and Republican leaners in Minnesota. Among Democrats and leaners, Hillary Rodham Clinton leads among that age group, but she draws a higher percentage of support among older voters. And the 18-39 year olds are critical to second-place Barack Obama; they account for most of his support.

Ron Paul

Here’s a Newsweek story about Barack Obama’s efforts to win over younger voters.

And here’s a Boston Globe story about how Republican Ron Paul is energizing younger voters and has lots of friends on MySpace.

How do you think younger voters will affect the 2008 election? It’d be great to hear from some first-time voters on this question.

Idaho Sen. Larry Craig: When he pleaded guilty to disorderly conduct, he included a hand-written note to the prosecutor, thanking him for his “cooperation.” The prosecutor cites that in a memo he filed Monday opposing Craig’s attempt to

withdraw his guilty plea after his bathroom arrest at the Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport. The prosecutor says that in his pre-plea phone dealings with Craig, the Idaho Republican was “calm and collected” and his “questions intelligent and methodical.” In short, Craig knew what he was doing when he entered his guilty plea, the prosecutor argues. Here’s the Star Tribune story and here’s the Idaho Statesman’s story.

By the way, if you’re to run into Craig at the Lindbergh Terminal — for whatever reason — you’re going to have to make different travel plans. The Washington Post’s Sleuth Mary Ann Akers, who refers to Craig’s party ID as “R-Not Gay,” says Craig is now changing planes in Denver. Here’s her item.

That wacky Wakota Bridge: If you had doubts about the under-construction Wakota Bridge before the I-35W bridge collapsed, then maybe this item is actually good news: The state is considering delaying work on this troubled bridge project to free up funds for the rebuilding of the I-35 bridge. Here’s the latest development on the continuing bridge fallout.

Presidential race: The Washington Post has had a couple of blog items on The Trail about President Bush’s off-the-record and on-the-record comments about the candidates — especially Hillary Rodham Clinton

and Rudy Giuliani — hoping to succeed him. Here’s the first item and here’s the most recent item.