On Friday, Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer’s campaign sent out a three-exclamation-point press release headlined: “Thanks to you, this is now a two person race!!!”

The release claimed that Nelson-Pallmeyer had “surpassed Mike Ciresi in delegate support.” It cited a local DFL convention Duluth, and gave the delegate-selection results as Nelson-Pallmeyer 10, Al Franken 10 and Ciresi 2.

The DFL doesn’t track delegates at this stage of the U.S. Senate race — between the precinct caucuses and the state endorsing convention in June — so there’s no way to measure delegates statewide. But anecdotal reports were confirming the essence of Nelson-Pallmeyer’s point: Ciresi was struggling.

This afternoon, Ciresi abandoned the race, issuing a press release that barely addressed why he made the decision. This passage was the only comment on that point: “In my judgment, continuing the endorsement race would only lead to an unnecessary floor fight. It is time to step aside.”

Now, it really is a two-person race. (There are a couple other candidates who aren’t a factor).

Franken clearly is — and always has been — the frontrunner. He has raised $5.2 million for his campaign, compared with $284,000 for Nelson-Pallmeyer. Franken has already run television commercials, and he enjoys high name recognition by virtue of his celebrity status. However, he also has a high unfavorable rating.

Nelson-Pallmeyer was a late entrant, only announcing his candidacy in October. He has run an energetic campaign, has impressed debate audiences and can point to a passionate group of supporters.

Usually, when it comes to describing a candidate’s supporters, “passionate” is code for “small.”

Is that the case with Nelson-Pallmeyer?

Compared to Franken, Nelson-Pallmeyer certainly lacks the nationwide network of financial contributors. Closer to home, Nelson-Pallmeyer is coming up short in key union endorsements, compared with Franken, who has the backing of labor groups ranging from teachers to public employees to steelworkers to teamsters.

We’ve seen in the past, though, that Minnesota’s process of selecting convention delegates through the precinct caucus system opens the door wide open to the right grassroots candidate.

Is Nelson-Pallmeyer that candidate?

No predictions here about the Democratic presidential race — just facts and calculations (with a few necessary assumptions) about what lies ahead now that it’s clear the contest isn’t about to end anytime soon.

Current delegate totals
Here’s the AP count, which includes superdelegates who have made public endorsements. These numbers include the results from yesterday.
Barack Obama: 1,564
Hillary Rodham Clinton: 1,463

Delegates needed for nomination
2,025

Delegates still up for grabs
There are 4,049 delegates to the national convention in Denver — 3,253 pledged and 796 superdelegates who are free to vote any way they choose. So far, 3,027 delegates have been awarded (including superdelegates who have announced an endorsement.)

Here’s how the remaining 1,022 delegates that are left break down:

– Pledged delegates in the remaining states and territories: 611
– Superdelegates who remain uncommitted: 349
– New Mexico’s Feb. 5 primary is being recounted, so no delegates have been awarded yet: 26
– Some Texas caucus votes are yet to be awarded: 10
– John Edwards won delegates before dropping out: 26

The math
You may have heard some commentators say that the math is working in Obama’s favor and that it will be hard for Clinton to catch up. Here’s what they base that on.

Let’s assume that the 36 delegates outstanding from New Mexico and Texas are divided evenly between Clinton and Obama. (That will almost certainly be the case in New Mexico, where Clinton leads 49-48 percent; in Texas it’s possible that Obama may win more than half of the 10, because he’s done well in caucuses so far.)

With that evenly-divided assumption, then…
–Clinton needs to win 55 percent of remaining delegates to win the nomination.
–Obama needs to win only 45 percent

If current trends continue…Obama wins
If Obama and Clinton each corral pledged and superdelegates at the same rate they’ve done so far, Obama wins the nomination. His lead in pledged delegates would trump Clinton’s edge with superdelegates.

Here’s the calculation:
There are 1,022 delegates not yet allocated — 673 pledged and 349 superdelegates.
–Obama has won 52.7 percent of pledged and 45.6 percent of superdelegates to date. If that continues, he would end up with a grand total of 2,078 delegates, or 53 more delegates than needed to win the nomination.
– Clinton has won 47.3 percent of pledged and 54.4 percent of superdelegates. If that continues, she would end up with a grand total of 1,971 delegates.

Who votes next?
There are 10 states left. Wyoming is next, with caucuses on Saturday, March 8. A paltry 12 delegates are at stake.

After that it’s Mississippi on Tuesday, March 11, with 33 pledged delegates.

Then it’s a 6-week hiatus until the big showdown in Pennsylvania on April 22. There are 158 delegates at stake that day.

Indiana (72), North Carolina (115), West Virginia (28), Kentucky (51) and Oregon (52) vote over the following four weeks, and then the last states — Montana (16) and South Dakota (15) — vote on June 3.

Along the way, two terroritories also vote — Guam (4 delegates) on May 3 and Puerto Rico (55 delegates) on June 1.

Wild cards
Michigan and Florida were stripped of all delegates by the Democratic Party for holding their primaries too early. Clinton was the only one on the ballot in Michigan, and the candidates agreed not to campaign in either state. Clinton won both states.

If those delegates were to be seated at full strength: Michigan would have 128 pledged delegates and Florida would have 210.

Also, John Edwards won 26 pledged delegates (AP count) before dropping out. But 14 of those were from the Iowa caucuses, and he’ll lose those as Iowa’s convention and final delegate selection process unfolds.

The fine print
2008 Democratic Convention Watch reports that the superdelegate total has dropped by two to 794.

California U.S. Rep. Tom Lantos died on Feb. 11. Lantos, a superdelegate, had endorsed Clinton. His replacement will be chosen on April 8.

Also, former former Gov. Kenneth Curtis had been listed as a superdelegate from the state, but he’s no longer a legal resident of Maine.

Guess where Curtis has moved: Florida.

He claims that no matter where he lives, he’s a superdelegate by virtue of being a former chair of the DNC. But because he’s now a Florida resident, his vote has been stripped, according to Convention Watch.

Curtis has endorsed Clinton.

You be the pundit
Some websites have provided delegate calculators where you can construct your own scenarios for the remaining states and superdelegates.

Here’s the Forbes site.

Here’s Slate’s.

Watching the returns from Ohio and Texas and looking back at the arc of this campaign brings to mind one of my favorite sports moments — the epic battle between golfers Jack Nicklaus and Tom Watson at the 1977 British Open at Turnberry. (Bear with me.)

The major championship had come down to a duel between Nicklaus and Watson in the final round. Watson, trailing earlier, had scratched his way back into a tie with Nicklaus by the time they reached the 16th tee.

As recounted in the book “And Then Jack Said to Arnie…”, as they stood on the tee box, Watson turned to Nicklaus and said, “This is what it’s all about, isn’t it?”

And then Nicklaus, smiling, said, “You bet it is.”

In the end, Watson won with a birdie on the 18th hole, and afterward, Nicklaus offered this praise: “I threw my best at him. I gave him everything I had. I just couldn’t shake him.”

The Democratic nominating contest has that same air about it — two candidates engaged in a monumental struggle for supremacy, each throwing their best at the other.

Tuesday’s result isn’t about the delegates. When the final delegate tally is reported from the Texas caucuses, Obama’s overall delegate lead may still hold up.

But at least for now it’s all about Ohio and the economy, stupid.

By prevailing on this dominant issue in a must-win state (must-win now and in November), Clinton has made her strongest case yet for being the Democratic nominee. And, it gives her an advantage heading into the Pennsylvania primary — another Rust Belt state with a Democratic governor who is supporting her, just like in Ohio.

Clinton tried to look every bit the nominee — with confetti accenting her victory speech appearance — but this contest still has a long way to go. Maybe all the way to Denver.

The intriguing things about that possibility are:

– The superdelegates. Early on the old-guard type superdelegates were breaking for Clinton, and Obama supporters expressed outrage at the possibility that those delegates could tip the balance to Clinton, over the expressed wishes of the primary and caucus voters.

But more recently, Obama has been winning the fight for superdelegates. It happened in Minnesota on Friday, when the DFL Party chair and associate chair abandoned their neutral stance and backed Obama.

Now, with Clinton reborn, will she again prevail among the remaining undecided superdelegates?

– Florida and Michigan. The Democratic Party stripped both states of all their convention delegates for jumping ahead in the primary calendar. Clinton won both states, but there was no campaigning and they weren’t fair contests.

At a brokered convention, Clinton no doubt would insist on seating those delegations. But surely the party would have to remain firm. By seating those delegations, the party would go from saying the states would have absolutely no role in picking a nominee to giving them the decisive roles.

And now, a final observation.

In their speeches last night, Clinton and Obama each related a tale about a touching letter or donation they had received.

– Clinton’s story: Young mom, with girls ages 2 and 4 sends Clinton $10 and a note saying she and the girls and cheering and rooting for her, and “I want them to know anything is possibile.”

– Obama’s story: Elderly woman sends him a money order for $3.01 — one cent! — with a “simple verse of Scripture tucked inside” the envelope.

He may have lost three states Tuesday, but Obama won the competition for best tale of poor-donor-searching-for-loose-change-among-the-couch-cushions-to-scrape-together-enough-for-a-contribution.

Of the two big states holding primaries Tuesday, Ohio had seemed to be Hillary Rodham Clinton’s best chance of ending Barack Obama’s winning streak. But in recent days her lead in the polls has been shrinking.

What was an 8-point lead in a poll taken early in the week is now within the margin of error in three polls taken in recent days.

Meanwhile, Texas – the other big state voting Tuesday — remains a dead heat, with some polls showing Obama ahead by up to 4 points and some showing Clinton ahead by up to 4 points — all within the margin of error.

And if Clinton’s odds of turning this race around don’t seem daunting enough, consider this: Even if she wins the popular vote in Texas, Obama may walk away with more delegates.

Texas has an odd blend of primary and caucus voting to award its 193 pledged delegates. This AP story describes the Texas Two-Step:

Until two decades ago, the primary was advisory only, and all delegates were picked in caucuses. But in 1988, “a group of reformers wanted to put a primary into the process to enhance participation,” according to Ed Martin, a former executive director of the party.

“But they also wanted to maintain elements of the caucus … system to the process. The theory was that’s a way to bring all the new people in and get them involved” in building the party, he said.

Bottom line, 126 delegates at stake in the primary on Tuesday, 67 more in caucuses that convene 15 minutes after the polls close, and more than enough complexity to go around.

Obama was sure making his presence known on the websites of the Dallas Morning News and the Houston Chronicle late Sunday afternoon, with huge banner ads atop the papers’ home pages featuring a large photo of him and a video.

In Ohio, both campaigns are bringing in plenty of political and entertainment celebrities to help out, and it looks like voter turnout will be huge.

Here’s an excerpt from a Cleveland Plain Dealer story about the action in Ohio this weekend:

In Ohio, former President Bill Clinton made stops in Kirtland and Lakewood on Saturday. Actress Melanie Griffin, former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and Kathleen Kennedy Townsend also talked up Clinton across the state.

Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius; Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick; Andy Stern, who heads the powerful Service Employees International Union; actor Kal Penn; and the indie band Arcade Fire planned to lead events in Ohio for Obama this weekend….

The Cuyahoga County elections board was flooded Saturday morning with voters who wanted to cast ballots early under Ohio s new law….

The board also reported that 34 percent of the more than 900,000 people who have requested absentee ballots this year are voters who did not vote in the primary four years ago.