Hurry up Thursday
Posted on February 22nd, 2007 – 11:36 AMBy La Velle
Short workout. Short presser afterwards. The Twins have a charity golf tournament that starts in an hour, so everyone is bolting.
Not much news. Ramon Ortiz will report on Friday. I talked to Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer for tomorrow’s notebook. The Twins met with umpires to go over rules changes.
Watched Joe Mauer take b.p. Mauer’s stages of batting practice are more noticeable than anyone’s. If he hits a ground ball, it’s usually during the first turn through the cage, then there’s the line drive stage, then there’s the rocket-launcher stage. Quite impressive.
I figured I’d link to my story about Carlos Silva and open up the discussion. Where should we set the over/under on Silva’s wins this year? I’m going with 13. I think he’ll be a little better…
34 Responses to "Hurry up Thursday"
Twins nation and I would probably be thrilled with a 13-win season. I agree that he’ll be better, because historically he hasn’t been nearly as bad as last year. I’ll take the under on the wins, but I’m hoping the ERA is a little lower and that the Twins are in most of his starts late.
He’d better also keep a decent attitude. The pulling out of games for weird reasons was pathetic. We’ll see if the healthy leg and a full spring training revives the sinker, and his slider is better.
If the ERA is under 5, he’ll win 13 games.
Call me crazy, but I think he is going to come back with a vengence this year. I’m going with 16 wins.
Any word on how much Sidney weighed in at? I thought I read that he had a weigh-in of sorts on Tuesday.
He’s just so hittable. Hopefully the sinker will be working and those groundballs are hit at people, like in 2004. Since Wins have very little to do with how well a pitcher pitches, I would be thrilled if he could have an ERA under 4.50 and a WHIP under 1.25!
13 wins sounds fair. Your article gives some reason for optimism, but then again it seemed like all season last year the Twins were coming up with new ideas about what was wrong and trying to fix them, but they never yielded any results.
I’d be thrilled with 13 wins, but more importantly a low ERA, and most importantly, a much better AO/GO ratio–and a lot less home runs!
While none of his splits look even decent, it’s pretty evident that he was lacking in stamina. Once he got to 75 pitches or 5 innings his already discouraging numbers went from bad to vomit-inducing. Whether that has to do with him going through the lineup a few times rather than his arm strength, who knows? Hopefully the luck will return, but I’m not optimistic. I’ll take the under if you’re setting it at 13, maybe 10. He’ll get many chances out there, since the Twins, as usual, seem to be completely unwilling to trust their prospects.
I’ll go with over 13 wins and an ERA under 4.50. I think he wants to get back to his old form so bad he’ll simply will himself into being a decent pitcher again. Hanging around Santana all the time can’t hurt either.
I think Carlos will be much better this year. I’ll go with the over at 14. I’d give him 16 except I don’t think he’ll go deep enough into games to get that many wins. i think he may have put a lot of pressure on himself last year and when things didn’t work out he kinda folded. If I remember right he didn’t suck as much towards the end of the year. The twins won’t wait long, too many good arms in waiting. And I believe, and I’m saying it everywhere, there will be a pitcher traded by the all star break. My bet is on Ponson or Ortiz with a AAA guy, but it could be Silva as well.
wins at 13 - based on an ever improving twins offense, remember Randy Johnson had 17 last year. I seem to remember one Tony Fiore coming up with double digit wins a few years back! ERA over under at 5.00, 200 consistently mediocre innings.
I’ve never been a Silva fan. He doesn’t do the one thing a pitcher needs to do well to succeed, which is to keep runners off base. So what if he doesn’t walk people? Why walk when you can go yard?
If the Twins are to have any chance at a reasonable start this season, Silva has to be a lot better. When I look at him I look at a guy who, even when his sinker is working, still gives up a ton of hits. I’ll take the “under” if the number is 13.
Definitely take the under on wins. Once the confidence is gone, it’s extremely hard to regain it. One bad outing early and he’ll be fighting to stay in the rotation.
Over if he is the #2…under if #3
13 sounds about right.My guess would be somewhere between 12-14 with ERA 4.50 4.75.I think the Twins would love that.I like the idea of starting of the season with the vets in the rotation.Give Ponson and Ortiz a shot and see what sticks.Boof is in the rotation and that leaves one spot open for Garza,Perkins,Slowey etal to fight for.Assuming Johan has a Santana like year the rest of the staff simply has to keep its head above water and they should be ok.Please, just no Scott Baker!
I’ll go with the under (although I agree with Seth that wins has nothing to do with performance).
While I expect Silva to be marginally better than last year, his deal with the devil is over. He will not remain in the rotation for the entire season. Will be glad to be wrong.
As a mediocre softball player I know firsthand how crippling low confidence can be. You go out every time hoping you don’t suck, knowing you probably will. I think that’s how Silva approached every start last year, and when things went well he felt like the inevitable would happen and the wheels would come off at any moment. I hope taking the winter off will cure him, but those first few outings will be crucial. If he has a few bad innings it could snowball and be 2006 all over again. I expect he CAN be much better than he was last year, and he SHOULD be much better than he was last year. In fact, I think it will either be much better or worse, probably not marginally better. I would say 14 wins, ERA around 4.1.
I could see Ponson winning 12-14 games although it wouldn’t surprise me to see him have a poor spring training and not make the team. My questions is if he does make the team as the 4th or 5th starter, what happens to Garza, Baker, Perkins and Slowey. Perkins and Slowey would most likely be sent to AAA, but what about Garza and Baker. Both seemed to have decent stretches last year. Is the bullpen an option for either?
Yes, it has seemed like each year Silva’s sinker has had a little less sink on it, and his GO/AO ratio has gone down accordingly.
In 2002 he induced 2.38 groundball outs for every flyball out, and now he’s down to 1.36 (and has gone down every year). At this pace he’s going to be giving up about an even number of each, which is not good if you’re Carlos Silva.
I’d put the over under at 7.
4 wins…out of the rotation by june…will leave us all wondering why he was given another chance. I just don’t think he has it in him.
The pessimism of Twins fans usually is a contrarian indicator. Too much transference of Vikes and Wolves mediocrity on a team with far superior decision-makers and coaches.
Carlos won 11 games last season, but you’d think he won -11 to read some of the comic comments.
Take the over, easy.
I got the over. But only by a couple. Depends on if his confidence comes back. He better step it up,or pack up and head out. Some team will want him. I mean some team wanted Lohse!! We might not get anything but a bust A ball player, but at least it will clear room for a stud young arm we got waiting in the wings.
Frankly, 2005 was the aberation for Silva and not 2006. We can only call 2006 an aberation if he has a season like 2005. Still, he pitched worse in away games on grass fields than at home on the turf, so if the Twins can put him in a position to pitch a few more games at home rather than away, he might be able to grab 13 wins. Interestingly, his ERA climbs as the number of outs in the inning rises, so that would seem to verify the “perceived pressure problem” Silva experienced. Possibly this can be alleviated with pitch selection, a walk to the mound by Mauer or Redmond more often, or some 10mg Valium.
OK. He is on my fantasy roster, so I’ll hope for 13 wins with an ERA near 4.00 and a Whip under 1.50, but realistically, he is probably a 9 - 12 win, 5+ ERA with a Whip in the 1.7 range. That should tell me to drop him from my fantasy roster, but being a typical Twins fan, I won’t do that until I have “had enough”, say around July 4th.
BTW To Jimmy, above: They’re ALL stud young arms waiting in the wings until they prove it on the Twins roster. Every year, there is another Mark Redmond coming up.
I bet I could solve Silva’s inability to keep pitches down…just let me sculpt the mound he throws off of and I’ll have him throwing the nastiest stuff in MLB. I speak from experience.
I will take the under(10) on Silva wins. Enjoyed your article and hope like heck I’m wrong. Maybe that new split finger pitch makes him a legit #2 starter. I really thought that in 2005 he got fortunate with a lot of ground balls hit hard right at somebody for double plays.
I hate to be negative but I do not see Silva finishing the season in the rotation. I predict a transformation in the entire rotation moving him out to The Pen. Sorry fans.
Saw LaVelle out at the park today. Looks like he enjoyed a few bbq ribs and buffet dinners over the offseason!!! Morneau was absolutely killing the ball on the backfield. That raw power is incredible.
Hope Blyleven behaved at his “charity” golf tourney in Bonita…
Are you guys kidding me? He pitched poorly last year and could have won 13 games. If he even pitches a just a little better he’ll have a chance to win 16 games easy. He seems to either get the win or take the loss, not too many no decisions. How many starts did he miss last year when he was sent to the pen? My thinking is if he pitches just a little better, he won’t get sent to the pen and he’ll have more chances to win games. I think he’ll win 16 or 18 games and pitch over 200 innings with an era of 4.5. I think he’ll win a couple of 9-8 games and a normal Silva game will be like 5-3 or 6-5.
Silva is terrible. If his ERA is under 5.00 I’d be pretty pleased. He’s a sinkerballer and his fastball doesn’t sink any more. Pretty big problem.
Last year was an aberation for Silva. His routine was thrown off with the WBC. He was coming off a minor knee injury, which affected his delivery. These things cascaded into ruining his confidence.
This year: injury free, a fresh start, and belief in the better run producing lineup the Twins have will net him 15-16 games.
I fully agree with Corey… Silva lost confidence because his leg was buckling undreneath him. You have to have a strong plant leg to throw that sinker. He says the leg feels great, the sinker is back, henceforth, the confidence is back. I think if Silva’s sinker is at least 50% at the beginning of the season, he’ll build on it all year and keep confident. I call over 13.
I’m on board with Swenson and Scott. In 05 he won because he didn’t walk anybody and the defense played way above average behind him. If he wins 13, he will lose 15. I doubt the Twins will let him hang around that long. The ERA is the key. It will be at or around 5. I say go with the younger arms, hope the offense is a bit better and if 07 isn’t the greatest then you have a heck of a team for 08.
If silva’s era is under 13, we should all be happy. He is awful. Twins would be much better served allocating his innings to one of the kids…
