Picks to Click, 2007: The Polls are Open.
Posted on March 28th, 2007 – 9:58 AMBy La Velle
Every year, I pick two Twins players, one pitcher and one position player, who I think will have a big year. And many of my picks have been clunkers to the point where some people think I’m a jinx.
But that hasn’t stopped me from picking. And you can play a role in this. Now that we’ve had most of spring training to evaluate, you surely have identified someone to bust out this year. You have until Sunday night to reply with your Picks to Click for the season. Any player is eligible, but if you pick Johan Santana, that means he’s winning 23 games. If it’s Mauer, that means he either is going to bat at least .360 or hit 25 homers. And if it’s Morneau, that means he’s hitting well into the .300’s again but with at least 40 homers and 140 RBI.
I will tabulate the results and have them on this blog sometime Monday - along with my picks.
213 Responses to "Picks to Click, 2007: The Polls are Open."
I’m going with Kyle Lohse and Tony Batista…
Seriously though. I gotta stick with my gut and go with Bonser for the pitcher. After all, he has definitely stuck with his gut…if you know what I’m saying.
For the batter, I definitely think Kubel is going to surprise people this year. I look for him to hit 25+ homers and flirt with 100 RBI’s.
Nathan will have 40 saves or more and Cuddy will whack 25+ homers and drive in at least 120 runs. Also, Punto will attempt to slide into 1st base 5 times.
Position Player: Jason Kubel. Something like a .275 average & 15-20 HRs.
Pitcher: Boof Bonser. I think he has everything he needs to be a good pitcher–good stuff, determination, and he shows the ability to adjust to batters. I think he will get 15 wins, and an ERA under 4.
Jason Kubel, .300 ave, 20 HR, 80 RBI
Ramon Ortiz, 15 wins, ERA around 4, plus he looks like the guy with the umbrealla from the Outkast video “I Like the Way You Move.”
Garza comes up in Liriano fashion winning 10 games in the second half of the season and Rondell White hits 280 with 90 RBIs
Pitcher: Boof Bonser (15 wins)
Position player: Jason Kubel (.290, 20 HR)
Torri Hunter will hit over 30 homers and hit above 280 while playing some of the best defense of his life b/c it is a “contract year” and Sidney Ponson proves to be adequate for an entire season by winning 12-15 games.
Just because he was so terrible last year and his track record indicates that he’s much better than that, I go with Rondell White. For a pitcher, I’m taking Garza. I guess that means that I’m with TC612.
Position Player:
Luis Castillo (.300, .395 OBP, 35+ SB)
Pitcher:
Juan Rincon (2.30 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, .195 BAA)
Cuddyer - People forget that he started last year on the bench. With a full season on the field he is going to shine.
Garza - He’s going to be hungry to start in the bigs. It will happen, and once it does, he’s going to be solid.
Garza and Kubel.
pitcher: I think Ponson will proove a lot of doubters wrong in 2007. I also think Santana has the capacity to be the first guy in many years to win 30 games (maybe not this season, but some year) if he gets anything resembling run support.
position player (sort of): Rondell White returns to form in 2007
BUST: Kubel will be out-for-the-year again by Memorial Day. He cannot seem to stay healthy.
Kubel and Garza
BOOF!
and Cuddy.
Ponson - Rondell
If Rondell returns to form, then he’s on the Dl at least one time in 2007.
Cuddyer and Santana
Bonser: 210 IP, 3.54 ERA, 160 K, 40 BB, 26 HR, 17-12.
Kubel: .290/.380/.460, 32 2B, 2 3B, 22 HR, 70 RBI.
Punto - .316 128 runs scored
Boof - 21-3, 3.01 era
Barrlet - 20 HR’s .310
Castillo - .340 130 runs scored
Garza - 11-1, 2.08
Kubel - .345 35HR’s
Ortiz - 14-4, 3.98
Morneau - .340 45HR’s
Mauer - .388 35 HR’s
Santana - 25-3, 1.50 era
Batter: Kubel
Pitcher: Boof
Pitcher - Ramon Ortiz. He will replace Radke’s wins and show a sub-4.00 ERA.
Position Player - Jason Bartlett. Another .300 plus season, with better power numbers. He only played 99 games last year - a full season and more comfortable in his role will establish him as a long-term part of Twins foundation.
Position player:
Jeff Cirillo will prove to be a huge pick up. (.300 ave, 7 hrs.) He’s a versatile veteran with a good bat. Nick Punto won’t make the entire season without injury. Jeff and Mike Redmond will have some key hits to win some games which will be key in a tight AL Central Race.
Pitcher:
Glen Perkins will be in the majors early in the season and have a big impact as a lefty.
Pitcher - Silva
Batter - L Rod
Go Twins!
Boof and Cuddyer
Pitcher: Ramon Ortiz, with picthing coach Rick Anderson helping him out he should be able to win 15+ games along w a sub 4.50 era and strike out a possible 150+.
Position Player: Michael Cuddyer, along with hitting 30+ homers and 120+ RBI this year Cuddy will hover around a .300 batting average…and lead the league in outfield assists.
Honroable Mention: Jason Bartlett will have another solid year, but because his lack of power will again go unnoticed.
I`ll have to go with Garza, don`t know
if he`s made the team yet. but he will
and watch out, for a player ,I`d have
to go with Barrlet, not home runs but
high AVE. over 300. and Garza 16
wins.
Good God, I hope Dean Pole is right- that would be the best team in HISTORY! (including the ‘27 Yankees)
Seriously, I hope Ringer is right- if Ponson/White can come through and have good years, this team should win the Central without much trouble. I think those two are the key to the season.
I agree with the Boof/Kubel picks by several people.
Position player: Bartlett… at some point finally being moved up to the #2 spot in the order where he’s consistently getting driven in by Mauer, Cuddyer and Morneau.
Pitcher: Neshek… may become the top set up man out of the bull pen by season’s end. (Have to admit his last couple of ST outings have me second guessing myself.)
I am taking the starting rotation as a group.
I expect this will include at least six or seven arms, as it does for most teams every year. But the group will be above average and by the end of the season it will be regarded as a Twins strength — not a weakness or a cause for concern.
I’ve gotta go with Boof (15-17 wins), and Cuddy (25-30 hr, 120 RBI).
Bust: Kubel (I’m sorry to say)
Jason Kubel - We’ve known what he’s capable of for a few years now, but this year he should be healthy.
Matt Garza - He may not start the season in the rotation, but he’ll be in it soon enough.
Perkins for pitcher. Ponson could upset here, but Perk’s a second lefty in the rotation. Garza’s a popular pick, but I suspect he’s still one year and a change-up away.
Position player is tougher. Punto, Castillo, White and Kubel could all qualify here just by not spending significant time on the DL. However, I’m going with a dark horse here: I think by midseason, Punto’s back on the bench as the super-utility guy, and that the new, improved (and much thinner) Matt Moses will emerge as the third baseman.
Good question.
Position Player: Jason Kubel. Hopefully Gardy gives him enough ABs, meaning Cirillo gets some time at 3B when he plays. Runner up: Jason Bartlett. He could smack 10-15 homers, drive in 60-70 runs, steal 20 bags, and play great D at SS.
Pitcher: Matt Garza. If he gets 30 starts, he’ll win 13-15 games and I have a hunch his ERA will be below the 4.00 mark with plenty of K’s. Runner up: Jesse Crain. He’ll step forward as the #1 setup man for Nathan. I expect his K’s/inning to almost double.
By the way, Dean Pole, I hope you’re right: 135 HRs out of Bart, Mauer, Morneau & Kubel??? Hmmm, give Torii 25, Cuddy 25, Rondell 20, and misc another 20, that’s 225 for the season! Plus 71 wins from our 4 established starters? Did I miss something? Did CWS, DET & CLE all throw in the towel?
I don’t know why some of you think Kubel is going to be a bust. When healthy, the guy has hit .300 or better thru the minors.
And he’s healthy.
I’m sticking with my original vote for Ponson on the pitching staff, but i wouldn’t be at all shocked to see this Venafro guy come back up and play a huge roll as the season progresses (assuming they are able to slick-talk him into staying with the club instead of signing elsewhere).
“And he’s healthy.”
Today. I don’t think anyone would argue the potential talent there. His only limitation appears to be the ability to stay upright for an extended period of time.
Position player: Kubel, easily capable of hitting .300 with 15-20 HR
Pitching : Want to go with Garza, but I’ll play it safe and say Boof. He’ll hover around low 4s for ERA, and strikeout between 150 and 160.
Rondell White or Jason Kubel, both healthy this year…
I think Ponson will surprise us with his pitching.
…..and this doesn’t really count, but as far as ‘Twins that will have a big year’ I would suggest Terry Ryan is about to have another big year for the organization. Expect a mid-season trade that no one sees coming that will add extraordinary future value to the team. That man is a genius.
I understand the questions about Kubel’s health, but it’s not like he’s had a string of injuries that indicate he doesn’t take care of himself.
He had his knee torn apart on a freak play. Last years problems should have been expected in the first year back from an injury like that. By all accounts he’s moving like he did before the injury.
Boof and Hunter
Cuddyer and Ortiz
Mauer will take too many at bats away from Kubel as a DH. Kubel showed last year he hit best when he was playing everyday in LF and so did White.
From what I saw of Cuddyer earlier this spring, he’s ready to take another big stpe forward.
But my position player pick is Kubel. He’s gonna’ put himself on the map big time.
For a pitcher, I’ll tke the young phenom Matt Garza.
If Terry Ryan can get Santana and Nathan extensions it will be a big year for him.
For a position player, it’s Cuddyer. He’s going to get 500+ at bats hitting between mauer an morneau… he’ll have men on base, and they can’t pitch around him. I forsee 28-35 hr and 120-135 RBI he’ll get MVP looks.
As for the pitching staff… Matt Guerrier. I think this is the year we realize what a gift this guy is. He’s going to vulture his way to 10+ wins by taking over in the 4th inning of 5-2 game, holding us in it, and letting the bats whack our way to a 7-5 win. He may be the most under-appreciated pitcher on the team.
Seems like I’m not alone:
Garza (can’t wait for him to take over for miserable Silva)
Kubel - finally
I have to say I see 4 Twinkies as primed for breakout seasons: Boof, Garza, Cuddy (contract year) & Bartlett. But I wonder if Garzie won’t be a bit inconsistent and Cuddy did hit 109 RBI last year setting his own bar high. So I’m gonna say Boof & Bartlett (I like him batting 9th, giving pitchers the fear right before the top of the order. Rally caps!)
If I had to name a bust in each category this year, using LEN’s reverse criteria (that is to say WAY underperforms reasonable expectations)
Nick Punto - I think he overachieved offensivley last season, and his production will drop. That said, he’ll be a secure defender at third in a lineup with enough pop… his production won’t be missed terribly.
I think this is the year that someone in our vaunted bullpen is exposed. It happens every few years, and this year someone is due. (witness JC Romero, Eddie, Todd Jones, Hawkins, etc) If I had to pick one right now, Jesse Crain.
I think we’ll se Kevin Slowey finally make his way up at some point this season - depending on how terribly Silva and Ponson perform - and he’ll pitch well enough to stay on the playoff roster.
Kubel
Ponson
Position Player: Punto. He did great last year. Will do even better this year.
Pitcher: Glen Perkins.
Carlos Sliva and Matt Lecory.
Hmm. I’d like to say Kubel but I think he’s still that “a ha!” moment away from breaking out. Kind of like Morneau last year. As a dark horse, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Lew Ford (or possibly Denard Span) in center shortly after the trade deadline.
I’m going to go with Ortiz for the pitcher. He’s shown that he still has good stuff and this staff can keep his head on straight.
Position player, I think we’ll see Rondell White return to form at the plate. He knows what was wrong, he’s worked on it and he’s adjusted. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see 30+ homers from him this season.
I’m going with Cuddyer 25+ Homers and 100+ RBI’s. Garza-I think he takes over for Silva in May and gets double digits wins and an ERA under 4.
Runner Ups
Bartlett
Nathan
Whatever Utility infielder we trade for
I have to go with Kubel and Ponson -
Kubel 280 - 20 HR - 80 RBI’s and the starting LF job sometime in May when RonDL shows up (and goes down)
Ponson 14-10 ERA 4.20 - he’s healthy and seems to finally have his head on straight.
Garza will be a starter at some point and finish with a 12-4 record and have an ERA around 3.50. Hunter should be fully recovered from his foot injury and will hit .290 with 35 homers and 120 RBI. GO TWINS!
Heh. I see Paul is rolling with the jinx thinking.
Before ST I went with Durbin and Kubel as players to watch in 2007. I guess I will have to alter it slightly by dropping Durbin and switching to Ramon Ortiz. Hopefully Gardy can guess correctly when is one bad inning is coming and get the bullpen in there before be blows up.
Kubel’s RBI numbers this Spring foretell what is to come.
Boooooof and Rondell White
to Dean Pole — if you’re predictions come true they’ll probably cancel the WS and just give to the Twins by default, and then select an All-Star team to play them in an exhibition!! It’d be great - I predict 145 wins if all players hit your numbers
Bombo Rivera and Kevin McHale will surprise everyone.
I think Sidney Ponson, without the bone chips in his elbow, will win 15 games. I’m having a tough time deciding between Kubel and Rondell White. I think both will do pretty well, but will take Kubel to really break out.
Dean Pole does not work in an environment that requires drug testing.
Ponson: 12-8 4.19
Tyner: 400 ABs .308 21 SBs
(Steals Home Ala Dan Gladden to win the WS)
Eddie Bane and Hoskins Powell.
I think there are a lot of candidates for Pick to Click. I predict that Cytana is going to have a monster year, as is Morneau. Bonser proved he belonged in the majors last fall, and he has pitched as well this spring as he did then. If Rondell and Hunter play all year like they did last fall, we have a good chance to win the division in spite of our “reclamation project” starting pitchers (Ponson, Ortiz, Silva).
However, things never work out like you think they will. One of our position players will hit .275 instead of the expected .300; one of our bargain basement veteran pitchers will surely fail. So I think we will only make the playoffs if someone else steps forward to carry the load. I pick Kubel to hit .280 and drive in 75 runs (he won’t be the full-time DH), and Garza to win 14 games after he is called up in May.
Batter:
Jason Kubel
.270 BA with 20 bombs 80 RBI
Pitcher:
Glen Perkins (midseason callup)
7-5 in 110 IP with 3.80 ERA and 75 Ks
Gotta go with Kubel at the plate, with an OPS near .900, season similar to Cuddyer’s last year.
On the mound, Garza, about 150 IP, with about 140 Ks and an ERA around 3.00.
Garza
May call up
12 wins
Kubel
.285 22 HR, 85RBI
castilla; .311 ba .365 obp 33 doubles 5 triples 22 sb’s pitcher: ponson 15-8 era in the 3.75 range 190-210 innings
Boof Bonser
Michael Cuddyer
All three Jasons (Kubel, Bartlett and Tyner) could make the list. My vote is Kubel. Kubel will hit 22 homeruns and bat .295.
For pitchers, it’ll be Ortiz. He’ll have a breakthrough year, going 20-5, with a 3.2 ERA.
Ortiz 15-6 3.35
Sir Sid 15-8 3.60
White .285 18HR 87RBI
Boof and Kubel, if for no other reason than the expectations for them will be relatively low. I’m thinking Boof will go 16-6 with a 3.75 era and Kubel will hit .280 with 25 homers.
Pitching in the American League, if Ortiz and Ponson each have their ERA at 3.35 and 3.60, Rick Anderson will deserve a huge pay raise, or will be some team’s manager next year.
I’m hopeful each keeps their ERA under 4.50
Pitcher- Joe Nathan he could lead the league in saves as the twins pitching will need to use the pen as much as possible.
Hitter - Bartlett 300, 10 homers 30 doubles 20SB solid defense
Boof will win 18, Rondell will drive in
102.
Pitcher
The Boof is loose baby 15 - 18 wins.
Hitter
I am going with cuddyer will hit .312 and knock in 29 homers.
Go Twins
Matt Garza-
15-6 3.24 ERA 176 K’s
Luis Castillo-
.319BA 11HR 67RBI
I like seeing more optomism for Ponson here and I’m on board. He truly can have not only a break out year, but a come back player of the year award next to his name. He has the stuff, his elbow is clean, and he has the defense behind him to turn the DP. I see 15 wins from him for sure.
I also like Bartlett and the fact he gets a whole year up here. He will soon be moved to the number 2 spot in the order, bat around .300, become a solid base stealer and hit 30 doubles.
Can’t wait, only five more days.
I’m going with Bartlett to hit 300+ with 50+ RBI’S, 8-10 Hr’s, and 25+ SB’s. OF I have others I’m thinking about but Bartlett will stand out.
Pitching ..Garza may or may not start the season up North but when he gets here were are looking at 10-13 wins with a 3.5 or less ERA. Not bad for a 5th starter who is still in his early years. HOWEVER…. The Twins will not win their division and finish 3rd or maybe 4th 7-10 + games out of the playoffs. 87-91 wins will not get it done. Terry Ryan’s failure to lock up a “Shefield Type player” to DH and a Solid starting Pitcher ( a 10-12 win guy) is why I pick them to be OUT OF THE PLAYOFFS. Terry has to see that the team is in strong need of a solid Hitter…Rondle White and Garza are my only hopes…..
80+ responses and not a Silva in the bunch?? not here either.. I think Castillo in a contract year to hit .320 or so, steal 30 bases, 7 triples, 22 doubles, 60 rbi…. pitching: go with Ortiz 16-8, 4.00 ERA
“Boof and Kubel, if for no other reason than the expectations for them will be relatively low.”
From what I’m reading in these comments, expectations are NOT low for Kubel. In fact, they’re quite high. That’s why I’m predicting a disappointing year for Kubel. Like someone else mentioned things never seem to happen like you think. I hope I’m wrong though.
i like Garza. the right-handed liriano! pause pause. NOT. but he’ll still be a very worthy starter. 13+ wins should suffice.
hitter will have to be cuddyer. he’s going huge this year if he hits between mauer and morneau. i think he was the most underrated player last year. 45 2b, 25 HR, 100+ RBI/R is nothing to sneeze at.
Hitter- Rondell White, he will be much better than last year. hopefully he can hit 20-25 homers and have 100 RBI’s
Pitcher- Matt Garza, he is just a stud!! is there anything else you can say about him?
Castillo and Venafro (will be called up early). Go Twins!!
I have to say that while expectations are sky high for Kubel (is this his last chance to prove himself?), he is probably the one Twin that has not performed up to expectations in the majors. Rondell White has always had big expectations on him, and has sometimes come through, but has always been injury prone. At his age, I don’t think there is much hope for any better than that. But Kubel has had his streaks and probably is where Morneau was last year. The numbers people have been spouting for Castillo he’s done before- they are nothing new. I don’t have as high expectations for Bartlett- I just don’t see it…
Pitchers- anyone in the bullpen is out of the race, as they have already been lights out. For them to be the pick, they’d have to outperform what they’ve already done, and that is near impossible. Same for Santana. Players to watch? Absolutely. Pick to click? They already have. Neshek may be the exception, but it will be hard to do better than his numbers last year. That leaves the rest of the rotation. Silva is too fragile right now emotionally. While I’m tempted to say Ortiz, I think the best we can expect is what he already put up for the Angels. Ponson is a little better candidate due to his recent past, but he’s still too risky of a pick. Being released how many times doesn’t bode well, even though he’s “healthy” now. I guess after all that, I’m in the Bonser crowd, though more out of elimination than wanting to pick him.
Kubel and Bonser…
Like a lot of others, I’m hoping for more from Matt Garza this year. All we’ve heard builds him up to be great, and this could be his year to explode (like Liriano’s last year…though let’s hope Garza doesn’t explode in the same way). I’m also Punto performs as well as he did last year. He proved a lot of people wrong last year as he adjusted to playing regularly at third base, and I’m hoping he can keep up that momentum for all of 2007…
I’m going with Cuddyer (he’s a solid player and I think this year he’s not going to get overshadowed by the infield!)
And the hometown boy, Neshek… he’s coming into his own… I think his first full year in the majors is going to be a big one!
Player=Jason Bartlett
Pitcher=Boof Bonser
Garza and Kubel for me too.
Boof “john” Bonser
Cuddy
Runner Ups
Bartlett
Punto
Neshek
Let’s go with the DH platoon of Mauer/Kubel/Cirillo/White (anything “clicks” better than last year, three words: Lew Ford DH).
And what the heck, Jeff Cirillo and Redmond on left-handed scissors days. Cirillo is going to do more than just spell Punto at third. It’s a secret platoon.
Dennys Reyes is my man on the mound.
Boof and Cuddy. And Twins reach World Series.
I think Silva is going to surprise alot of people and is going to win 14 or 15 games. I thin Garza is going to be the one that disapoints people this year.
I think Cuddyer is going to have an all-star season and is going to become a league class clean up hitter.
Cuddyer (because I own him on all my fantasy teams, and if anything will light a daily candle for his success…also hitting between Mauer and MVP is as good protection as you get in baseball- also them both being LH gets you late situation lefty right setup…but I digress)
Mauer will hit 25 homers, but Cuddy will come up even bigger.
Neshek- If you can get a vote for just plain filthy stuff, and if the world embraces a Hold with as much value as a Save? I gave it a shot from my soapbox.
Otherwise it would go Santana- 23 wins in a contract negotiation year is not out of the question???? Especially with the bullpen he has.
Easiest poll ever. Garza and Kubel.
Kubel’s going to do similar to what Cuddyer did last year in his first full healthy season, and become a star.
Garza is going to be a Verlander-lite (noone’s Liriano) for us and burst onto the scene.
Honorable mention, I’d go Boof, Santana, and Bartlett. Santana’s going to put together 2 good halfs and have a 23-24 wins, a 2.50ish ERA, and win another pitching triple crown. A remarkable season from him, even moreso than usual.
I’m going with Toby Gardenhire and Ludovicus Van Mil.
Sadly…that’s not even close to the most delusional pick on here.
Kubel: .280, 25, 90
Santana: 24-3, 2.01
Kube’s all the way. Healthy & looking GOOD. Go Kubel.
Garza
Ortiz and White
VENAFRO NEWS.
I was looking around and there really aren’t any spots for Venafro to go which is why the Twins sent him to the minors because they could. ALthough Venafro already showed what he can get the job done. They used him and his career to keep a self proclaimed “Real Man” Durbin who pitched like crap. Twins Management should be really embarassed on this screw up. To be honest they really screwed Venafro over. I know its business, but I would be pissed if I were Mike Venafro.
KFAN just announced that Garza has been sent Rochester.
Garza just got sent down. I love the twins but do I really have to watch Ortiz, Ponson and Silva back to back to back.. geesh this sucks!
wow…i just don’t understand why to keep silva up, make him earn his spot, i just don’t see improvments with him at all.
David Winfree. Anthony Swarzak.
Oh, you mean just the major league Twins.
OK, Jason Kubel (although I also think that Cuddyer will step it up another level). I’ll go on a limb and say Ramon Ortiz.
Barty is the next Punty waiting to happen. (Kind of a Yogi Berra thing there) Albeit a 4-tool player, (shovel, prybar, hacksaw, nailgun) (missing sledgehammer) his speed and spot-hitting make up for it. He is due this year. Wear your socks up and you will succeed young man!
As for pitching, gah. Tough call. Too many left-handed power hitters so that leaves out everyone except, um Glen Perkins on my chalkboard.
See me in September.
Silva 200 IP
Mauer 25 HR
Now I think LaValle asked for big years….I’m going a different but similar route.
I think Santana will a big year.
posistional: Tori Hunter
Silva 200 IP Majors or Minors?
I think Silva and Durbin will have big years. How stupid can Gardy be to keep these two around. Maybe Ill be wrong but ….no I wont be. This is Juan Castro and Tony Batista all over again. Gardy is stubborn. When Bartlett came up last year the Twins were like, “look what all that time at AAA did for him.” Now Im not as mad at them as the Vikings but it looks like Garza had no chance to make the club. Silva did everything to lose his position and Garza did everything to make the club. We’ll see him in May for sure. Hopefully he will be the fifth starter. Seriously though:
Kubel and Castillo
If Silva wins a dozen games, 2/3 of those will be for another team. Ryan is hoping he can pick up a few wins out-of-the-gate and we will trade him away, with Garza getting the callup. Silva is dead weight, but we couldn’t trade him for a ham sandwich right now.
Breakout Year:
- Batter: Michael Cuddyer
- Pitcher: Sidney Ponson (also comeback player of the year)
Bust of the Year:
- Batter: A TIE between Nick Punto (will be batting below .100 by May) and Lew Ford (can he possibly do any worse than last year…why did we sign him again…for his terrific situational bunting??)
- Pitcher: Juan Rincon.
The obvious answer is Rondell White because he has so little to work with.
Bust outs: Cuddy, Koobs, Rondell, Boof, Garza, Crain
Bust ins: Punto, Silva, Guerrier
Pitcher: Boof
Position: Rondell
Pitcher: Ramon Ortiz 230 IP 3.00 ERA 17 WINS
Batter: Rondell White .315 BA 27 HR’s 105 RBI
OK maybe a stretch with Ortiz’s ERA and White’s RBI but I can always hope.
Pitcher: Silva
Position: Rivas (Oh, he’s gone?)
Kubel and Bonser
Silva: will go undefeated…at the buffet table.
Still can’t believe he’s in a major league’s starting rotation.
Pitcher: Bonser 13-16 wins, 160K’s and a
Silva: will go undefeated…at the buffet table. Still can’t believe he’s on any team’s starting rotation.
Pitcher: Bonser 13-16 wins, 160K’s and a
I’ll take Matt Garza and Jason Kubel.
Pitcher: Glen Perkins
Hitter: Jason Bartlett
If a good year for Morneau is 40 HR, is a good year for Silva a 5.00 ERA?
I’m still doubtful Silva will have a good year even by that standard, so I’ll go with Ponson and Bartlett.
“Garza did everything to make the club.”
Except throw his off-speed pitches for strikes. Paul Molitor today said Garza still needed to work on some stuff. That major league hitters weren’t going to chase some of the pitches he throws off the plate the way AAA hitters did.
Sliva threw everything for strikes right down the middle at 90 mhp.
Cuddyer
Ramon Ortiz
Garza and Cuddyer
Hitter: Michael Cuddyer 330(Avg) 35(HR), 135(RBI) 15(SB) and oh yeah, He’s gonna win MVP!!!!!
Pitcher= Perkins 14 wins
Silva will come around and Kubel will have a monster year
I agree Silva is going to suprise some people. I also think Rondell is going to rip it up.
Outside of our obvious stars in pitching and hitting (which I am looking forward to seeing them all play again) I am looking forward to Ponson and Venafro (Why they sent Mike Venafro down though, I can’t figure out. If he is not up in the majors soon, I am sure he will find his way to another team). Hopefully we will get them both playing VERY soon.
While it may seem like an obvious pick, I’m going with Justin Morneau for two reasons. First, I think he can improve on all his numbers from last year, including 40 HR and an average in the .330s. But the main reason I go with him is that unless he puts up MVP type numbers, the Twins are dead no matter how well Cuddyer and Kubel play. For pitchers I’m gonna go with whoever gets called up for Silva at the end of April (probably Garza).
Sidney Ponson will win 15 games, and will stay out of trouble. Hunter will be back defensively, and hit 35 bombs.
I am going with Ramon Ortiz and Rondell white
I believe a healthy Rondell White will put up big numbers in left. 25 - 30 hrs with 85+ RBI’s. Silva will implode and Garza will be called up; he never should have been sent down. Garza will come in late , much like Liriano did last year, and proceed to win 12 - 15 games.
Alright lets be serious here:
Ponson is only going to win 8-10
Ortiz will have a high ERA and a record like 14-12…something like 4.85
Silva will be gone by June
Punto will probably digress
White will have a decent year something like 280, 12 HR, 70 RBI
Kubel if Healthy 280, 18 Hr, 75 RBI
Bartlett should be low 300’s with some doubles
Hunter will NOT hit 30 Hr’s
oh yeah and Perkins winning 14 is ridiculous! he wont pitch enough games
Im not a pessimist, everyone else will have good years.
Rondell White, and Ponson- If not Ponson then Garza will come up to have a big year
silva and cuddyer
SanDiego- you hit it right on the head! Wouldn’t have said anything different. The only thing I hope you are wrong about is that Silva will be gone before June.
For those of you who think Silva will be traded, I really don’t think that will happen. They just love him too much, if he pitches well, they keep him and tell everyone “I told you so”, if he doesn’t, they will give him every chance possible to turn it around. (oh, wait, they already have)
And, I’m not bashing the brass, I don’t think they can’t do anything right and have screwed up everything from the day they were born, I just think they are wrong about this.
Jason Kubel and Scott Baker.
Heh, I’m the only person in over 100+ comments to mention Baker. If the Twins would stop screwing with him, I think he’ll be very good.
Will -
I think Baker is right up there with Garza, Perkins and Slowey as a possible callup when one of the current starters falters. I think which gets picked will depend on how well they do at Rochester correcting their individual weaknesses.
For Baker, I think that means keeping his pitches down. For Garza it is mixing in his other pitches. I think Gardy said Perkins needs to improve his command. Slowey apparently just needs innings against better hitters.
Slowey may be the only one where getting AAA hitters out is the key to promotion. For the others, its going to be how they get them out.
If Ponson puts up 10 wins- that’s a serious success and a great pick-up.
Picks to click: Bartlett and Garza
Picks to implode: Punto and Guerrier
(It wouldn’t even be fair to pick Silva or Ponson to implode; that’s the equivalent of picking Santana or Mauer to “click.”)
Boof
Bartlett
Now that it’s official that we will have to watch Silva pitch this year, I just hope he doesn’t throw up some 6 innings, 4/5 ER outings, where he doesn’t get rocked, but doesn’t exactly instill confidence either.
Then what do you do with him?
Pitcher (if he gets a chance): Kevin Slowey
He’s NOT the next Radke, he’s better than that. He reminds me much more of Greg Maddux, and I’ve followed the Cubs for over 20 years. Doesn’t mean he’ll be a HOFer, but the similarities in stuf/approach are definitely there.
Hitter: Anyone facing Carlos Silva
Pitcher: Bonser. He should win 16 games and strike out 180.
Hitter: Kubel. He should hit near .300 and 20 home runs.
Rondell White
Ramon Ortiz
Castillo (contract year) will be very good. Bartlett will suprise us too. Kubel is to easy a pick!
Ponson will pitch his tail off for another BIG contract along with Andy’s help. If Andy can straigten out Hawkins, he can do it with Ponson.
Ponson and Bartlett.
I think Ponson has it figured out this spring with the help of Anderson.
A spring training of just getting ready will do nothing but benefit Bartlett and he’ll reward the Twins for their faith in him.
Jason Bartlett– .290 25 HR and 90+RBI
Matt Garza– 16 Wins 3.5 ERA
I like the Garza analysis. I see him being the second coming of Liriano. Garza’s got balls, something Gardy and Ryan lack. Silva will get rocked soon enough and hopefully the polite Minnesota fans will have some guts to actually really call out Gardy and Ryan on it. If it was New York or Boston, Gardy and Ryan would be wondering every time they saw headlights in their rear view mirror whether somebody was going to teach them a lesson.
As for a position player, I completely disagree with the Kubel picks. Kubel has sucked big time ALL SPRING. I don’t even recall him getting a hit (I’m sure he did get a hit here or there, but nothing memorable). I think Rondell is going to have a very good year, Castillo, too. Castillo’s in the final year of his contract and being the selfish player he is, he’ll play well just to increase his free agent paycheck.
I think Punto will suck and lose his third base job to Cirillo or someone else they may bring in.
I look for Bartlett to have a nice year at the plate, maybe hitting .300.
Don’t be surprised to see Mauer down a bit. He’s sucked all spring and is not driving the ball the way he needs to. Way too many ground balls to the first or second baseman. WAY, WAY TOO MANY. They don’t call him Double Play Joe for nothin’.
Ponson will have a nice year. He’s a veteran who gets it. His arm feels good after having bone chips removed and his balls move down as they reach the plate. A lot of ground balls. Plus, he’s clicking with his teammates and is happy. No pressure in the Twin Cities. Even with that goofy accent, nobody will recognize him except the staff at Old Country Buffet.
I don’t really care for polls, but I must say — LaVelle looks darn fine in flip-flops.
Pitcher–since I have a terrible history with picking pitchers (I picked Lohse to have a big year after the 2004 season, and Silva to distinguish himself in 2006) I’m going to make a pick that shouldn’t hurt too much if I’m way off. Guerrier will end up starting after Silva, Ponson, and/or Ortiz blow up, and show us all that he’s been nurturing his super-starness for the last few years. As for position players, I can be a little more serious and predict that Bartlett is ready to bloom.
Now as for what I want: I want to see Punto continue to stay healthy and keep making those jaw-dropping plays, Nathan continue to show us his complete awesomeness, Morneau to become more confident in his abilities, and Kubel start killing the ball. Also Rondell- he’s great guy and I’d be happy in more ways than one to see him have a good year.
Thanks for the blog, La Velle, it’s been a great way to start the season.
Kubel: 15 hits in 19 games this spring plus good reviews from everyone that has seen him play this spring.
Maybe your memory is failing you?
Blossoms: White, Kubel
Blossoms: Neshek, Ponson
Blowouts: Hunter,Punto
Blowouts: Rincon
Hey, it’s just my gut feeling that’s all.
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
White and Ponson
I think Cuddy blooms into a power hitter with the protection that Mauer and Mourneau provide. 25 + homers.
And whoever gets 4th starter role. If it’s Ponson, or Bonser or Ortiz…..I think they’ll thrive against other team’s 4th starter.
Umm … the fourth starter doesn’t face the other team’s fourth starter. He faces the other team’s hitters.
I predict that’s where our fourth starter is going to run into problems.
My picks are first Jason Bartlett. I think by the end of the season he will be hitting in the 2 hole and Nick Punto will be back to reality, batting around .250 and batting 9th. For a pitcher, I think it will be Ponson. Rick Anderson will work his magic again, and with some excellent D behind him, the sinkerballer will win 10+ games this season.
“Then what do you do with him?”
If the Twins fifth starter is going 6 innings with a 4 or 5 ERA, they will have one of the better pitching staff’s in baseball. The problem is going to be if the Twins are getting those numbers from the number two through four starters.
At the beginning of Spring Training there were a bunch of people who thought the Twins shouldn’t have signed Ponson, Ortiz or Silva. Ponson was the favorite whipping boy. Now, based on spring training, its Silva. It will be interesting to see which, if any, of those guys produce.
Ponson and Castillo
Skippy:
I agree with you. Skippy does taste better than Jif…
Now on baseball, I disagree… White and Kubel will have great years, but not Ponson.
I hope I’m wrong…
Lavelle: Don’t count this one; I already picked Kubel and Ortiz, way up above,
I really don’t see anyone having a “break out” year.Most of them had it last year.If Kubel gets enough at bats he has a chance to have a solid offense year,maybe .285-.295 with 15-20 HRS.And a couple of the young guns will probably get their chance in the rotation as the year progresses,but the Twins will have to bust it to make the play offs this year.Unless a lot of bad things hapen in Detroit the Tigers are going to win the division.That leaves the Twins fighting for wild card and I don’t see that happening.
This team is being built for the future(2010)Hunter could be traded this year and either Santana or Nathan will probably go next year.Here is a solution:Trade Hunter AND Nathan in the next two years,empty the vault to keep Johan and make Liarino the closer to save his elbow.2008 starting rotatin of Santana,Garza,Perkins,Boof,and Slowy.Don’t fret about this year the future looks bright!
I think Hunter is primed for a breakout year. He had a good year last year, while coming back from his ankle injury in 2005. This being his “contract year” could provide that extra incentive to boost his numbers above last years. I think Hunter could be a sleeper pick.
Nobody is giving Tori his props. Look for him to push 40 HRS, and his always brilliant defensive play will make him an mvp candidate.
You also have to love Mauer, watch him push the .400 mark all season. Just like his grandpa says. He truly is a gifted player and is only gonna get better. Go Twins.
Honorable mention: Cytana!!! He would of got my vote, but how do you do much better than he has. Best pitcher in the Majors!!! By far.
I guess I’m curious how getting Garza more innings, letting him work on his off speed pitches and build confidence is serving him better than letting him sit on the bench for a couple of months as the fifth starter? Baker was supposed to be a wunderkind, too and that didn’t exactly work out for him, either.
I’m ok with not rushing him. I’m also ok with letting Silva sit on the bench for with a couple of starts in a couple of months. Unless one of y’all has an extra $4 mil they want to throw at him to away. Although, now that I think of it, you could probably start a collection and get that from some of the fans around here.
Doug, Liriano as a closer? You want to waste the second best pitcher in all of baseball (behind Santana) in a job that any decent starter can do? Liriano’s going to be fine when they rework his delivery. We may not see the results until late 2008 but that will be enough to help us win the World Series! We should have an absolutely NASTY team next year.
I’m aiming big:
Kubel wins the batting title (team, if not league)
Silva puts in 180+ innings and sports a sub 5.00 ERA
Michael Cuddyer
Glen Perkins
“If the Twins fifth starter is going 6 innings with a 4 or 5 ERA”
My comment was if he pitches 6 innings giving up 4 or 5 runs per outing, that is not an ERA of 4 or 5. That works out to about 7 or 7.5. My point was if he has these kind of OK, not worthy of a demotion, but hasn’t really turned around either starts.
You’re right, if he’s going 6 IP with an ERA of 4, that’s great.
I’m not confident that being a contract year will make that big of an impact on Torii. I’ve never questioned that he give 110% all the time to begin with. When get gets into trouble at the plate is when he tries TOO hard and tries to hit everything out of the park. I’m looking for his typical production: .270/25/90 and streaky with great D.
Contract years make a big difference to guys like Sheffield and Manny.
You can give all the reasons you want but I really want to hear from the Twins brass as why you send Venafro packing and keep Durbin. Unless Venafro throws only 80 mph or so, then I can see it, because big league hitters will eventually figure that out and “tee off”. OR if Mauer has some pull with Ryan and will not let them “cut” his buddy, then that’s to bad. I guess for now we will just have to trust Ryan, a guy who could not see the need for a big bat and/or a more reliable starting pitcher. I do not see our new pitchers having 10-15 wins COMBINED let a lone individually. AND Hunter will not see 20 HR’s let a lone 30. How can you the general Manager not see that you can not count on guys to have career years back to back. Look at Detriot, not only are they solid at pitcher but their line-up is awsome so what do they do …Go out and get a yet another big bat to join that solid line-up. Come -On Terry… I love ya but lets get real, we need atleast 1 more 25-30 Hr guy (DH) like Shefield and another reliable Starter. PLEASE next yr go out and spend some money. Oh yah.. while your out there you’ll also need a starting CF’er. GOOD LUCK ! Despite the lack of……GO TWINS…
If you want to use the logic that young guys who have a career year can’t do it again, and that it couldn’t be that they ahve figured something out, then how can you say that the Tigers will be good this year? They all had career years, too. Detroit’s pitching is the reason they were so good last year, and they were all studs that they developed.
What starting pitcher would you have gone out and signed this off season? The ONLY one worth anything was Zito, and he wasn’t worth what he got. If they would have wasted money on someone like that, they would have NO CHANCE at Santana (it’s slim the way it is).
Dustin I think you missed some of my take.I simply don’t think the Twins will be able to keep Nathan Hunter, and Santana.given my choice I would rather keep Santana.Think what kind of talent Hunter and especially Nathan could bring.The Twins need young position players to support Mauer,Mourneau,Bartlett etc.They seem to be fairly well stocked in the pitching department.And while I agree that Liarano had a inbelievable year last year,he does have a history of injiries pre dating his days with Minnesota.Why take a chance on screwing up his mechanics by changing his delivery?Would he be the same pitcher after those changes?By closing he would greatly reduce the risk of further injury and keeping that incredible slider intact.He simply wouldn’t be throwing as many per outing.
Boof and Rondell
How about Matt LeCroy 40 taters, 120 RBI’s? (oh, never mind)
Hunter/Garza
at this point, considering Liriano’s surgery and the nature of his success (a devastating pitch described as “invisible” by more than one batter), it’s as likely that we’ll never see the same guy that wowed us last year
remember Scott Erickson in back in ‘91?
his sinker was invisible
but throwing it as copiously as he did banged up his arm
rendering him, by and large, a mere mortal, albeit with occasional flashes of what could have been (no-no in ‘94…*Brewers)
KB -
You are right. I misread you. But I am not sure it changes the situation. If Silva is the worst Twins starter and giving up 4 or 5 runs while going 6 innings, the Twins will have a pretty good staff.
Of course that is not how you get to averages. If he is giving the Twins a lot of 5 IP games with 6-7 earned runs that is not going to cut it.
Jason Bartlett - .300 15 70 on base all the time and staying healthy.
Matt Garza - 3.25 ERA 15-4 170 Ks. He comes up however long it takes Silva to accumulate an 0-3 record with an ERA well over 10. I’m guessing it takes him 3 starts?
>>I guess for now we will just have to trust Ryan, a guy who could not see the need for a big bat and/or a more reliable starting pitcher.
Mark, I’m not sure you can say that Ryan can’t see the need. I mean, I see a need for a lot of things I just simply can not afford. In this market, with the money the Twins are pulling in, they just simply can’t afford to get all the things we’d like them to have.
And no, I don’t think it’s fair to ask Mr. Pohlad to put money from his other businesses into the Twins. It’d be nice, but it’s not how you get to be a billionaire.
Jason Kubel
Boof Bonser
I think Boof Bonser is ready to make the next step. He seemed to steadily improve as the season progressed last year. Bonser is my pitcher to click this season.
I am torn between Castillo and Kubel, on a coin flip I am going with Castillo. As long as his knees hold out, he should have a very good season.
Doug, if we lose Nathan (which I agree isn’t the worst thing if you get a ton for him because a LOT of guys can close) then I think there are many other options. Crain/Neshek/Mijares/Morlan being 4 that spring to mind.
I think we have the money for everyone going through the figures (and expected increase with MLB revenue/ballpark) but if we don’t then I agree, as great as Nathan is, we should trade him, because we can get a ton for him and closers are highly overrated.
I just see it as a waste to move the 2nd best pitcher in all of baseball (Liriano) to a (comparatively) meaningless position.
I think come July we will know how the team is sitting and what possible moves could be made. If we are not in it come mid July we could get a ton for Nathan, Torri and Castillo. We have guys right now who can step into those shes to finish the season. Then use the $$ and trade people to fill the holes and restock. I can’t see how pitching won’t be awesome in 08 even w/out Nathan.
Haven’t given up despite the fact that the Twins will bring north the majors’ worst bench and a bottom 5 rotation. Picks to click: White and Slowey, Twins’game 2 starter in the playoffs.
I think garza will get called up in early may but he wont have the numbers liriano did i say era in the high 3’s and a good number of strikeouts Hitter will be cuddyer. He will hit around .280 with 25 to 30 homeruns and 100 rbi’s but I also think that this year he will start getting the same respect that vlad and ichiro with their strong arms in right
My picks:
Ramon Ortiz
Torii Hunter
Ramon Ortiz and Jeff Cirrilo
Bust: Baby Jesus II Glen Perkins will have a 5.75 ERA in AAA.
No jinxes please, pick two guys untouchable. Wally the Beerman and TC the Bear.
Carlos Silva and Luis Rodriguez
Backwords K.Interesting logic.The Twins have the worst bench in baseball and one of the worst starting rotations,but they somehow manage to make the playoffs with a number 2 starter who is most likely to be the third option of call ups from Rochester?Garza and Perkins get the call first. The guess here is that if Slowey is called up before September the Twins have no chance of making the playoffs.
Your two breakout players will be:
Josh Rabe and Matt Garza.
Remember where you heard it first!
I’m going with Boof 15W 3.49 era 1.25whip and 170 k’s
, and Bartlet… .302 BA 35 Steals, less than 12 errors… 10 Hr and 78 runs scored
While my pitcher is still Boof, I have to change my batter pick to click from Kubel. Gardy’s keeping 3 catchers means one thing to me, Mauer will get a lot of Kubel’s DH AB’s. So, my batter pick to click is Bartlett.
My picks to click are above (Silva and Rodriguez.)
My picks for big drop offs: Crain and Cuddyer.
Sir Sidney and Kubel
I agree with CJ’s post….Punto and Crain could have down years. Especially Punto.
My picks for break out years has to be Kubel (or White… or who ever is playing left field by the end of the year) and Boof.
garza and kubel will be the next two to click imo.
Hunter-Bonser
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