I feel a draft
Posted on May 23rd, 2007 – 9:23 AMBy La Velle
I don’t consider myself to be a draft expert and never will be. Like most people, I just head over to Baseball America and pour through its excellent draft coverage.
Its recent mock draft has the Twins taking Texas high school third baseman Will Middlebrooks with the 28th pick of the first round. Here’s BA’ report on Middlebrooks:
Will Middlebrooks, 3b/rhp
School: Liberty-Elyau HS, Texarkana, Texas. Class: Sr.
B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-4. Wt.: 215. Birthdate: 9/9/88.
Scouting Report: Kevin Ahrens isn’t the only blue-chip third-base recruit Texas A&M could lose to the draft. Where Ahrens gets compared with Chipper Jones, the more athletic Middlebrooks draws Cal Ripken Jr. and Scott Rolen comparisons. Selected to play in a Texas high school football all-star game, Middlebrooks drew college interest as a quarterback and punter. He’s also a 6-foot-4, 215-pound righthander with a low-90s fastball and an occasional plus curveball. But his future is at the hot corner. He’s not quite as polished a hitter as Ahrens, but he’s not far off and his size gives him leverage that will produce power. He’s an athletic third baseman with good range and a strong arm, and he runs well for his size. Middlebrooks is a consensus supplemental first-rounder, but he could sneak into the first round with the right club.AVG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB
.581 74 38 43 16 1 5 35 17
The Twins don’t mind drafting high school talent, so they will have plenty of options, by their standards, on the June 7-8 draft. BA writes that this draft is deep. The Twins feel that there’s quality in the first 10-15 picks but a drop-off after that. They actually like the position they’re at, given what the they expect the bonus for that slot to be.
The Twins were really high on Beau Mills, a third baseman who was at Fresno State and later transferred to Lewis and Clark, but his stock has risen to top 10 status.
Here’s another player the Twins are considering, one who entered the year as the top prep player but who has slipped into the Twins’ range:
Michael Burgess, of
School: Hillsborough HS, Tampa. Class: Sr.
B-T: L-L. Ht.: 6-1. Wt.: 200. Birthdate: 10/20/88.
Scouting Report: With huge raw power, inconsistent performance and the legacy of Hillsborough High (the alma mater of Gary Sheffield, Dwight Gooden and Elijah Dukes, among other big leaguers) as a backdrop, Burgess has become one of this draft’s most debated prospects. He was a third-team All-American after batting .512 with 12 home runs as a junior, and the power translated with a wood bat last summer. Although his bat speed, strength and leveraged swing remain, Burgess’ approach and set-up at the plate have puzzled scouts this spring, and he hasn’t made consistent hard contact. He seems to lack focus, perhaps due in part to constant solicitation from hopeful advisers and receiving hitting lessons from former Georgia Tech star Ty Griffin and big leaguer Derek Bell. Late in the season, his timing was better and he showed glimpses of the 40-homer-hittting right fielder he could become. He’s an average defender with a plus arm and below-average speed. Burgess could slip into the supplemental round, but the team that weighs his history over his senior year could pop him in the first round.AVG AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB
.340 68 33 23 7 1 3 22 11
Yes, Hillsborough has turned out the prospects over the years, and Burgess, with the right coaching, could become a nice masher.
The Twins are still trying to beef up their position prospects. They’ve tried so hard to come up with a good third baseman, and have several who really haven’t taken off yet in Matt Moses, David Winfree, Whit Robbins, Danny Valencia and others. I keep hearing good things about Christopher Parmalee and Joe Benson, but they are off to slow starts. Henry Sanchez, the 260-pound high school masher, is just getting ready to play in games after wrist problems (which hopefully explain the lack of contact) have slowed his growth. And I want to see more production from their Latin American program.
But the upcoming draft is always a time to dream about the future. And it only takes one bumper crop to boost a whole organization. Remember, we lock in on the first-rounders, but rounds 5-15 is where scouting can make the difference.
60 Responses to "I feel a draft"
Ty Griffin!! From first round pick of the Cubs and U.S. Olympic Team to starting second baseman of the Thunder Bay Whiskey Jacks, formerly of the Northern League.
La Velle, do the Twins consider Winfree a disappointment? He’s 21 and hitting pretty well at AA (about a .770 OPS in what is, I think, not a high-offense environment).
By the way, Denard Span’s season has gone from bad to worse: he’s got both his OBP and his slugging below .300. I understand he’s adjusting to AAA, but he’s 23, so he needs to adjust quickly if he wants a shot at CF in 2008. Or I should say, if he wants to earn a shot–right now, Lew Ford would be a much better option, and I do not say that as a compliment to Ford.
Btw, it’s amusing to check out the clips of Satana’s strikeouts at mlb.com (or the Twins’ team page) and hear the Texas announcers ooh and aah over Santana. Not everyone gets to see him pitch all the time.
Speaking of Elijah Dukes…what a mess he’s in, huh?
In my upcoming Top 50 Twins prospects, I will have David Winfree in the 6-10 range, while I have both Denard Span and Matt Moses in the low 20s.
I agree with your comment, LaVelle, and the 5-15 rounds being important. Slowey, Baker and Crain were all 2nd round picks. Kubel was a 12th rounder. Winfree was taken in the 13th. Santiesteban was taken around the 38th round. Brock Peterson who is really hot in New Britain right now was taken in about the 48th round. Jeff Manship in the 14th. Danny Valencia in the 19th round. The Twins do a very nice job throughout the draft, and in recent years have done a great job of knowing who they want to sign and signing them.
and wow!! Elijah Dukes is definitely in some trouble! Not surprising, but this could cost him a career!
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Any word on the interest of either Devin Shepherd or Jared Mitchell in this draft by teams? Looks like the are both not doing so well in the college ranks at Oklahoma and LSU respectively. I assume if that is the same Mitchell he may have chosen LSU for football? Is there even a point at which the Twins take a serious look at how they are developing their hitting talent. It seems unreal to me how many pitching prospects we seem to have.. I know we drafter pitching high for quite a few years in a row, but some guys like Manship for instance are tearing it up and went in later rounds. Are we bad at developing hitting talent or bad at scouting hitting talent?
Max, I think we are bad at scouting hitting talent and we compound that by consistantly drafting a lot of high School talent which seems to take longer to develope.Mauer being the exception.
Who can name the last pitcher drafted by the Twins to manage 10 career wins as a starter? (Hint: it’s not Adam Johnson.)
The Twins have little to show for their pitching-heavy drafts up until 2002 or so, when it’s too early to judge, though things are looking better. They did have some fine drafts for position players in the mid-90s, when they picked up Torii, Todd Walker, Pierzynski, Koskie, M’kiewicz, Jacque Jones, and (sort of) Travis Lee.
They have little to show for their drafts for the past 10 years, at least.
Morneau, Mauer (first overall), Cuddeyer, Bartlett?, and ummmm…
Until Baker joined the rotation, not 1 starter this year was drafted by the Twins. Their closer - nope. They can’t even manage to draft and develop a DH.
I think Ryan and team do some good work, but this theory that they know how to draft and develop talent….it is a nice theory that doesn’t bear out when put under the microscope of examination.
they do a good job at developing talent, not just from the draft because the draft is not an exact science, but they do a good job of scouting players around the world, and in identifying players in trades
. Look at all the talent that they have got from trading for minor leaguers, even as just throw in players (liriano)
Rory I would agree with you on that.They do a great job scouting at the minor league level.I would imagine more than a few teams are a little leery of trading minor league talent to the Twins.
I’d love to see Middlebrooks drop to the Twins. He sounds like a perfect fit with all the left handed bats in the system. And he’s athletic enough to move to the outfield if Winfree or Valencia shine.
The draft certainly isn’t my area of expertise but I am hesitant of drafting a guy that has trouble hitting high school pitching with metal bats. That Burgess guy sounds like a poor man’s (prospect) Billy Beane. All tools but hitting won’t translate to MLB level.
Then again all of the Twins’ best hitters (Morneau, Mauer, Cuddy, Hunter) were all drafted out of high school so who knows.
The answer to my earlier question, btw, is Mark Redman. Hopefully Scott Baker will join him Friday. I think the last actual good starter we drafted was Brad Radke, 15 years ago.
and Radke was something like an 8th rounder.
I agree with Mark. And fortunately, the Twins do too. They tend to draft a lot of high schoolers–certainly more than most teams. But they only draft high schoolers if they have exceptional ability, not just tools. It is riskier to draft high schoolers. But if you get a good one, you get him in AA at age 20 or 21, like Trevor Plouffe.
College kids might get to AA at age 24. So there’s a much better upside for high school kids. But the higher risk means you have to do more homework on them. In Burgess’s case, if he’s not making contact on 70 MPH fastballs, that’s a big enough red flag that will scare the Twins away unless he falls to the middle rounds, when they can afford to take a risk on a kid, like they did with Juan Portes.
I understand the general idea that HS kids have higner upside–I think this is truest of the big stars who are in the majors at 21 or so. But college kids only get to AA at 24 if they’re flops.
Glen Perkins was in the _majors_ at 23, as was Scott Baker. Matt Garza got here at 22, Crain at 23…even Neshek was in AA at 22.
A player who reaches AA at 24 is probably not a real prospect.
I’m always impressed by the depth of knowledge on this blog. That’s why enjoy coming here. Kudos to La Velle and everyone who have commented on the state of affairs throughout the Twins’ organization.
Mike,
Just for the record, Bartlett was acquired in ‘02 by trade with the Padres, for Brian Buchanan.
Great take on the Twins’ drafting vs. evaluation of OTHER teams’ young prospects. I suppose it really doesn’t matter where the young talent comes from, so long as you find it. But they have to keep making moves if that’s the case. And while they may be stealing away Santana’s and Liriano’s from other teams, they’re not finding power hitting talent, so it makes sense that position players should be the focal point of their draft.
The Averages aren’t showing it, but Santiesteban and Parmalee are getting some power going at Beloit, esp. Santiesteban, one of the draft/follow guys.A process, which I believe, has been eliminated.
If so, LEN3, Ask Rantz how the elimination of draft/follow will impact how they approach the draft?
While I would agree that it is too early to draw a conclusion on Parmalee and Benson, I’m a little concerned about their inability to hit, so far. Parmalee is striking out at an alarming rate for someone who has fewer than five HRs. Benson’s numbers resemble BJ Garbe’s. I’m not completely discouraged because it took Cuddyer and Hunter several years to figure it all out. But it’s time for these guys — and Plouffe, et. al., to start showing what they can do.
Matt Dominguez…. he’s becoming more of a possibility.
My favorite prospects would be:
Josh Vitters
Phillepe Amounte
Mike Moustakas
Blake Beaven
David Price
and
Andrew Brackman
I see Ahrens in a Twins uni.
Glen Perkins was in the _majors_ at 23, as was Scott Baker. Matt Garza got here at 22, Crain at 23…even Neshek was in AA at 22.
A player who reaches AA at 24 is probably not a real prospect.
Those guys were all fast tracked. If they put a college player at Beloit and advance him a year at a time, he’ll be in AA at 24. If they start him at Elizabethton, he has to jump a level to make it there by age 24.
Jason Bartlett is an example of a guy who started in low A ball out of college and made it to AA at age 24, advancing a level a year. Matt Tolbert has a similar story. It’s easier for pitchers, especially relief pitchers, to skip levels. But position players, especially catchers and shortstops, typically do not jump levels unless they are extraordinary talents.
Of course, you could argue that a player is not a prospect unless he is an extraordinary talent. But I define “prospect” as a player who projects to be a major league starter. If you look around the league, a lot of former college players have started their first years as 25 year olds. And many who have done that are solid major leaguers; some are stars.
Ken, Cuddyer hit from day 1, with 56 XBH in his first pro season, and continued to thrive except for one year at AA. Hunter is more like what you want.
Roy,
I think it’s a matter of interpretation. I don’t have the stats handy, but I recall that Cuddyer struck out more than 100 times in about 500 ABs in his first year. His HR numbers were decent for a teenager, but it wasn’t clear that he would amount to the RBI guy he is today. As you noted, he had to repeat AA after a dismal year when he hit under .270 with fewer than 10 homers, and a high percentage of strikeouts and throwing errors. There were many doubters then and there might be a few for Parmalee and Benson if they continue down the same path. That said, this is their first full year of professional baseball so we should cut them some slack.
Ken,
I did mention the AA year, but to say he didn’t figure out how to hit for ’several years,’ you have to be talking about his years in A ball too. He hit .364/.451 and .403/.470 in those two years, good and outstanding performances respectively, esp. if, as I believe, he was in a difficult offensive environment.
I’m baffled by your comment about the K’s: he struck out just over 20% of his AB his first year, and that rate has remained unchanged to this day. His K rate was lower in his bad AA year than it was in the breakout year that followed, and he struck out at a higher rate in his stellar 2006 than in any of the minor-league years I’ve mentioned.
So if Cuddyer has figured something out, it certainly isn’t how to avoid strikeouts.
I too like Middlebrooks, but what do you hear about Devin Mesaraco as a possible 1st round choice. He’s a 5-tool catcher?
Hometown article about Middlebrooks’ most recent game:
http://www.texarkanagazette.com/news/localsports/2007/05/24/sports4.php
Roy,
I’m a little perplexed by your selective interpretation of my comments. When Cuddyer was drafted, it was known that he would move from SS to 3B eventually and he was billed as having Mike Schmidt potential. It is true that he could still rise to that level of offensive production, but his single A performance was decent, not stellar. It is true that Cuddyer still strikes out more than he should, but his power numbers are up significantly. I don’t believe this is merely about growing stronger. He still mashes the fastball like he used to, but he is much better at recognizing the breaking pitch. While this is the normal trajectory for hitters, it wasn’t always apparent that he would develop this way, especially after that miserable first year in AA. And you are right about the Ks that year. Maybe this was similar to that Gaetti year, when he hit fewer homers to decrease strikeouts.
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