Prospect update: Ben Revere
Posted on September 20th, 2007 – 5:08 PMBy La Velle
I regret not providing more minor league updates, but I did want to make you aware of Baseball America’s rankings of the top prospects in the recently-completed Gulf Coast League.
Twins first-round pick Ben Revere is listed as the third best prospect out of the league this year. The Twins are optimistic about Revere, who may have a higher ceiling than Denard Span. Revere, according to Twins people I’ve talked to, has very good instincts, will hit and occasionally hit one over the fence.
Span, the Twins’ first-round pick in 2002, batted .267 at Class AAA Rochester this season with 3 homers, 55 RBI and 25 steals in 39 attempts. Span is very fast but the Twins say Revere is the fastest man in the organization. Span also needs more time in the minors and is not close to being ready to step in if Torii Hunter leaves via free agency.
But this wasn’t meant to be a Span-Revere comparison. The Twins took Revere with the 28th overall pick because they were high on the guy and were worried he’d be gone when their next pick at 92 came around. They also signed him for about half of the slot money - $750,000.
My problem is that one of the players I thought the Twins should go after was considered the top prospect in the GCL this year - Nationals outfielder Michael Burgess. The Nats took Burgess with the 49th overall pick and paid him a $630,000. He looks to be an excellent power prospect.
The Twins would have to pay Burgess much more than 750K if they had taken Burgess with the 28th pick. But this is a player I plan to track through the minors as he develops. Revere could make me forget about Burgess if he runs AND hits as well as the Twins claim he can.
[UPDATE]: BA’s Chris Kline did a Q and A about GCL prospects. Here’s his answer to a question about Revere:
Q: Do you think Michael Burgess could produce like Gary Sheffield in like 5 years? And could Ben Revere end up like a Jose Reyes in center but with a below average arm?
Chris Kline: I think both are fair assessments. And I definitely see Revere as being a whole lot more than Denard Span. A whole lot more.
95 Responses to "Prospect update: Ben Revere"
LEN3. Have you heard anything on Johan signing an extension, or is this just more ESPN drivel?
Hey BBW– did you see that on ESPN’s site or TV/Radio?
I am sure it would be all over the local media if Johann signed an extension– so I wouldn’t get my hopes up
There is nothing on ESPN, ESPN News, or the website that mentions anything about Santana and an extension.
jayson stark’s column on espn.com talks about bill smith and the twins future, doesn’t say anything has happened
It must just be some rumor. Someone said they heard it on ESPN. Well, I bit, and it got me excited. No fool like an old fool.
Rule of thumb, even if you “hear” it was said somewhere…make sure to back it up with a show name, analyst, or a link if it’s posted.
And odds are if there had been an extension, it would’ve been in the Trib already.
“The Twins are optimistic about Revere, who may have a higher ceiling than Denard Span.”
No offense, but that’s setting the bar kind of low, isn’t it? Nothing in Span’s development over the past two years indicates he’ll be much more than a faster Jason Tyner. I certainly hope that Revere develops into a solid major league player, but only time will tell.
It doesn’t sound like Kline actually considers that a fair assessment of Ben Revere, but rather considers Revere==Span to be a fair assessment of Revere.
If you’re willing to be optimistic about Ben Revere, I think that Jacoby Ellsbury is a reasonable comp for him. Ellsbury is taller, so he probably has more power potential, but he if Revere is as fast as they say he is, the speed is a good match, and both make their living as contact hitters.
Ellsbury was 21 and had a bunch of college experience when he hit .317/.418/.432 in the New York Penn League over 139 AB. League average was .255/.332/.368.
Revere was 19 this summer and and hit .325/.388/.461 in the GCL over 191 AB. League average in the GCL this year was .252/.332/.359.
(Revere’s edge over Ellsbury in SLG I think is a bit of a mirage because he’s not going to hit more triples than doubles forever.)
Taking everything into consideration, including their style of play, I think that’s a fair comparison.
Do you think Michael Burgess could produce like Gary Sheffield in like 5 years?
Sure he could, except Sheffield was playing shortstop in the major leagues when he was 19, not coming off a season getting his feet wet in short season ball.
Should the Twins have taken Burgess instead of Revere? Time will tell, but I wouldn’t bet on it. There will probably be someone they should have taken instead, there almost always is.
Kirby Puckett is a reasonable comp to Revere too.
Kirby Puckett is a reasonable comp to Revere too.
Personally, I think it’s a bit unreasonable to compare any 19-year old to any Hall of Famer. In build, style of play, yeah, I can see the comparison, but comparing anyone to a HOF’er at this point is setting the bar too high. Revere’s absolute ceiling is Puckett, and he doesn’t have a very high chance of hitting that ceiling.
(Similarly, I would say that the Sheffield comparison is a loaded comparison for Burgess as Sheffield has produced for something like 20 years now. Very, very few players have Gary Sheffield’s career even if they have a similar skill set.)
Personally, I think it’s a bit unreasonable to compare any 19-year old to any Hall of Famer.
Like Gary Sheffield? Yeh, I agree. Comparing a 19 year old to any major league player is a bit of a stretch. But guys who are 5′9 and are supposed to have some power potential are not very common. I have my doubts Revere is going to be Kirby, but its as good a comparison as any.
(Revere’s edge over Ellsbury in SLG I think is a bit of a mirage because he’s not going to hit more triples than doubles forever.)
That depends on whether he hits more doubles or fewer triples.
No doubt about it Revere had a great start. It will still depend largely upon the makeup of the team when he finally hits the majors that will impact his value. A speedy, compact hitting CF would be fine but undoubtedly many will be looking for HR’s and will consider him a falure if he doesn’t hit them. Look at Mauer who gets ripped on for not hitting homers. But it may be that Revere works into an ideal leadoff hitter. It will be fun to watch his development.
Being better than Denard Span at this point in time is like saying… ok we think he has the potential to be better than Lew Ford.
I would rather see him in Centerfield than Denard Span, and I think I would picket the metrodome if Lew Ford and Nick Punto were in the line up on opening day next year.
I have been watching NESPNews (new england sports network)… and I have not seen anything on Santana, and that would be the headline… even over Everett being told that he could be walking within weeks!
Supposedly it was said that Johan is close to closing on a multi million dollar house in Eden Prairie.
Where there’s smoke, there’s fire?
As far as Revere goes, would you rate him higher than Joe Benson right now? Benson’s numbers aren’t really as good, but he is only 2 months older than Revere and was playing in low A ball instead of the GCL.
twayn — you beat me to it.
As far as Revere goes, would you rate him higher than Joe Benson right now? Benson’s numbers aren’t really as good, but he is only 2 months older than Revere and was playing in low A ball instead of the GCL.
In my personal opinion, I’d still rate Benson higher on the prospect list, or on the depth chat for this organization’s center fielders.
Benson is known as a potential “five tool” center fielder which are tough to come by these days. He plays a very good CF, has an above average arm, is quite fast, and he should hit.
Look at this…the average slash line for a player in the MWL in 2007 was .255/.324/.372. Benson (.255/.347/.368) hit right at the average, got on base at a higher clip, and slugged nearly the same as the average hitter in the MWL. Add in the fact that Benson won’t be 20 until March of 2008, and I think the Twins have a very intriguing prospect within their organization.
The alarming rate with Benson, and even Parmelee, is the amount of K’s they recorded this year. Is that a concern? Yeah, it probably should be…but they’re both quite young, and I expect them to continue to learn the strike zone and make adjustments.
The interesting thing will be when/if both Benson & Revere are at the same level in the minor leagues, and what the Twins plan on doing with them. Revere in LF? Benson in LF? Who knows.
I agree and ranked Benson ahead of Revere. I thought he did real well, especially in the 2nd half and playoffs for the Snappers. He’s got all the tools.
But I don’t think it is fair to be down on Revere as the Twins top choice at this point. Just because many publications listed him in the 50s or 60s in terms of draft prospects doesn’t mean he has no shot. And just because he signed below slot doesn’t mean he was only drafted for his signability. He’s got a lot of talent, a lot of skill, speed, some pop. I agree that setting a ceiling at a little better than Denard Span is too low. I think it will be very interesting to see if he moves up to Beloit next year and plays in an outfield that will likely include Ozzie Lewis, Rene Tosoni and Mark Dolenc as well.
In a Q&A with Mike Radcliff recently, he said of Revere, “We were convicted in the two most influential separators on a HS position player—we absolutely believe that he will hit, and we were as sure as a scouting staff can be on his makeup/character. He profiles to be a middle-of-the-diamond regular with top-of-the-lineup impact—a very valuable commodity. Signability is a factor in that each team must sign it’s top draft picks. Ben Revere was not drafted to save money; some players are—he was not one.”
I asked a couple follow up questions about him as well about his speed and such. If you’re interested, check it out here (http://www.sethspeaks.net/091307.htm).
Good stuff, both in the post and in the comments thread today. LEN, are you gonna give us some AFL coverage this fall? That would be a nice addition to what we get from Seth.
The alarming rate with Benson, and even Parmelee, is the amount of K’s they recorded this year. Is that a concern? Yeah, it probably should be…but they’re both quite young, and I expect them to continue to learn the strike zone and make adjustments.
The problem with strike outs is that they often have nothing to do with the strike zone judgment. They can be a sign a player can’t hit the pitcher’s out pitch, which often is a breaking ball.
You can be successful in the minor leagues just waiting on a pitcher’s fastball. You won’t be successful in the major leagues that way. Players do learn to hit a curve as they progress, but some never do.
I wonder what the people who are disappointed in Span would have thought of Torii Hunter after 1997 when he hit .231 in his second AA season at New Britain and then returned to AA for his third season in 1998.
“Revere, according to Twins people I’ve talked to, has very good instincts, will hit and occasionally hit one over the fence.”
Ben Revere 2007 stats:
50 Games 191 ABs 0 HR
and while I am at it…
“The Nats took Burgess with the 49th overall pick…He looks to be an excellent power prospect.”
That would be a tad of an understatement…Burgess has freaking OPS of 1.059…(A-Rod has a 1.055 OPS this year…) I think its safe to say that Burgess would have been a better choice than Revere.
Im sorry. I just cant help myself…
TT:”You can be successful in the minor leagues just waiting on a pitcher’s fastball. You won’t be successful in the major leagues that way. Players do learn to hit a curve as they progress, but some never do. ”
Ryan Howard: 190 Ks 41 HR
Adam Dunn: 164 Ks 40 HR
Carlos Pena: 136 Ks 40 HR
I could keep going…
Look at the MWL strikeout leaders. Then look at thier SLG…correlation??? hmmmm????? maybe????? I think I’m on to something…
Benson is known as a potential “five tool” center fielder … and he should hit.
If a guy doesn’t hit in his first two years in the minors, chances are, he never will.
Revere has hit everywhere he’s been, Benson hasn’t. If there’s one skill that you can’t teach, it’s making contact. Sometimes football players like Benson learn to make consistent contact and become productive players. Sometimes they don’t. See Denard Span. Though Revere was also a good high school football player, he was a better baseball player because he always made a lot of contact.
Time will tell of course. I’d like to see what Revere can do at Beloit next year. But I predict it will be better than what Benson has done. Here are Benson’s numbers from the GCL last year:
.260/.335/.444/.779
Revere’s are better this year:
.325/.388/.461/.849
Benson had more power, but looking at his contact numbers in the GCL in 2006, I’d say he did about as well as expected at Beloi in 2007. Revere should do much better there in 2008. I wouldn’t be surprised by a .300/.350/.450 line down there next year.
Burgess has freaking OPS of 1.059
Is Burgess a center fielder? It makes a difference whether he put up those numbers as a DH or a center fielder.
Revere has hit everywhere he’s been
Which has been one level…and a pretty hitter friendly level too.
I think Revere should and will start 2008 at Beloit…so we’ll see how he does in that notoriously tough hitter’s league.
I’m a big believer in Benson because of the tools he possesses. You can tell that unless you’re an absolute elite prospect, you’re probably going to struggle in the MWL. That average slash line is pretty indicative of that.
I’m not going to compare Joe Benson to Justin Upton here, but in 438 AB’s in the MWL last year, Upton hit .263/.343/.413. Oh, and he struck out 96 times in those 438 AB’s…which doesn’t exactly scream good plate discipline either.
I like Revere as a prospect…it’s not the prospect I don’t or didn’t like when he was drafted…it’s where and who was drafted at that spot in the draft. I have nothing against Revere…I just think Benson’s tools will allow him to hopefully become a quality major league player.
Can Revere accomplish that? Of course…I try to remain optimistic towards prospects, especially hitters, and I just continue to envision Revere being a “Jose Reyes” type player for the Twins in a few years.
And age is always an issue with prospects…
And Revere is only less than 2 months younger than Benson despite being drafted an entire year after Benson.
“Is Burgess a center fielder? It makes a difference whether he put up those numbers as a DH or a center fielder.”
What? Huh? I am not even going to be begin to try and understand what that even means. What if he was a DH? What if he only had one arm? Does it seriously matter? HE HAD A 1.059 OPS IN THE GCL THIS YEAR. That is just a silly number.
If a guy doesn’t hit in his first two years in the minors, chances are, he never will.
League average in the Midwest League this year was .255/.324/.372. It’s a ridiculously difficult place for hitters. Benson hit .255/.347/.368, which is roughly league average.
The average age of hitters in the MWL was ~21.5. Benson was 19, and there were only 5 19-year-olds in the league that had a significantly higher OPS than Benson:
Travis Snider, RF, .313/.377/.525
Hank Conger, C, .290/.336/.472
Brian Mathews, 3B, .319/.354/.418
Wilson Ramos, C, .291/.345/.438
Matthew Sweeney, 3B, .260/.324/.458
I don’t know much about Conger or Ramos, but it would interesting to know what their defense is like and whether or not a move to 1B is likely.
Anyway, I wouldn’t necessarily say that Benson hasn’t hit at all, taking into account age and level. However, his 124/49 K/BB ratio suggests that he’s not ever going to hit for a great average. I would guess that his value going forward will be largely tied to his glove, and he might be able to be somewhere between replacement level and an average hitter as a SS.
As for where Revere ranks relative to Benson, I don’t have enough info at this point to say. A lot depends on their defense, and I’ve never seen them in the field. If Benson is a plus fielder at SS and Revere is a below average CF or has to move to a corner, then I could see Benson ahead of Revere. So it’s kind of tough to say at this point.
Also, if we’re giving up on guys because they didn’t wow us at the lower levels…
Brian Buscher hit just .292/.354/.408 in the CAL league as a 23-year old, when the league average was .277/.340/.419 and the average age for hitters was 22.9.
If Benson is a plus fielder at SS and Revere is a below average CF or has to move to a corner, then I could see Benson ahead of Revere.
Is this assuming Benson moves to SS, or are you confused in thinking that Benson is actually a SS?
Which has been one level
Well, I know high school is meaningless, but Benson was a good high school player; Revere was an all-world high school player.
What if he was a DH?
Ever heard of VORP? Torii Hunter’s numbers are much more valuable as a center fielder than as a DH. If he was hitting the open market as a DH, he could expect less than half the salary he will make as a DH. That roughly equates to the value defense plays in evaluating players.
Another way to say this is, if you had nine David Ortiz’s on a team, you’d score a ton of runs, but you wouldn’t prevent very many. You’d lose every game.
Also, don’t get too excited about 60 games in the GCL. Danny Santiesteban had a ridiculously high OPS down there and he hasn’t hit since.
if we’re giving up on guys because they didn’t wow us at the lower levels…
I’m not giving up on Benson, but two years of league average hitting does not scream prospect to me. Hunter started slow too, and he turned it around. Benson just might do the same. But it’s not likely.
If he was hitting the open market as a DH, he could expect less than half the salary he will make as a DH.
Oops, cold meds again: I meant to say if he was hitting the open market as a DH, he could expect less than half the salary he will make as a CF.
Is this assuming Benson moves to SS, or are you confused in thinking that Benson is actually a SS?
My bad. CF. Either way, the point stands, and CF and SS have essentially the same defensive value.
I would guess that his value going forward will be largely tied to his glove, and he might be able to be somewhere between replacement level and an average hitter as a SS.
He’s a center fielder, not a shortstop. His value would be greater as a short stop, but he hasn’t been moved there and I don’t think the Twins have any intention of doing so. I have heard that he’s a bit better than Revere in center, but they both project to have above average gloves and arms.
FWIW, I would rank Twins CF prospects thusly:
Dustin Martin
Ben Revere
Joe Benson
Brandon Roberts
Denard Span
If Revere hits in Beloit, he’ll be tops on my list.
Wilson Ramos is another interesting Twins prospect. He started the season at Extended Spring, but injuries gave him an opportunity with Beloit. Once there, he didn’t stop hitting, and hitting for power. (well, I guess he stopped when he got hurt and his season ended) But he caught some and DHd when he wasn’t catching.
I actually agree with both of you. I’m high on Benson, in part because of his football pedigree and athleticism, but also because of his age. I didnt’ realize that he is only 2 months older than Revere and to be league average when you’re two-plus years younger than league average, especially in the lower levels, is pretty exciting. And Revere put up monster numbers in high school and in national tournaments and such. I know some at draft time were saying he wasn’t a great hitter, but then you look at the numbers and the extra base hits (including homers) and he must be alright. I thought it was great that he validated that by hitting well with the GCL.
Fact is though that as with any prospect, you just don’t know for a few years. Who will make the adjustments as they go up the system. Both seem pretty strong mentally. Both are incredible athletes. Both are the essense of what a prospect is. Their ceilings are both very high, but improvement as they move up will be what we’re looking for.
My CF rankings would be (also FWIW):
Joe Benson
Ben Revere
Dustin Martin
Denard Span
Brandon Roberts
(last two interchangeable)
I’m not giving up on Benson, but two years of league average hitting does not scream prospect to me.
Fair enough, but I would also argue that in Revere’s case, 200 PA in the GCL doesn’t mean a whole lot. It’s great that he did well–certainly better than if he’d struggled–but we have to make sure we don’t overvalue those 200 PA just because they’re the only ones we have.
Hunter started slow too, and he turned it around. Benson just might do the same. But it’s not likely.
Torii was a little baby boy at 18 when he played in the MWL, and posted an OPS of .781 when the league average OPS was .704. The only 18-year-old who did significantly better than Hunter in the MWL was a fella by the name of Alex Rodriguez, whoever he is.
Anyway, at that point in their careers, you can definitely say that Hunter was a better prospect. (Also, his SO/BB ratio was bad, but not really a problem because his best tool at the plate is hitting for power, and most mortals that hit for power strike out more often than they walk.)
Hunter’s “slow start” in the minors is a bit exaggerated, as his stats superficially look worse than the underlying performance since he was very, very young for the levels he was at, and he was playing in pitcher-friendly leagues. It’s not really a coincidence that his numbers shot way up when he started playing in Salt Lake–a hitter-friendly park in a hitter-friendly league.
“Ever heard of VORP? Torii Hunter’s numbers are much more valuable as a center fielder than as a DH. If he was hitting the open market as a DH, he could expect less than half the salary he will make as a DH. That roughly equates to the value defense plays in evaluating players.”
From Baseball Prospectus: VORP scores do not consider the quality of a player’s defense.
FYI: David Ortiz ranks 5th in the solar system in VORP. If you have 9 guys all with an OPS over 1.000 you will win every game. I dont care HOW bad thier defense is. You sir, are wrong.
“VORP scores do not consider the quality of a player’s defense.”
But it does take into account the defensive position he plays.
He’s a center fielder, not a shortstop. His value would be greater as a short stop, but he hasn’t been moved there and I don’t think the Twins have any intention of doing so. I have heard that he’s a bit better than Revere in center, but they both project to have above average gloves and arms.
You must not be a BA subscriber.
They consider Revere’s arm “below average in center field.”
I just think based on tools alone, Benson has the edge. I may sound like I’m pro-Benson, anti-Revere, but it’s not like that. If anything, I consider them interchangeable based on deciding what you want in your center fielder.
When dealing with prospects, you really need to dig deep and look at age, age relative to their competition, the league they’re in, park factors, etc. Based on those things and Benson, I am not too concerned about him. He should start the year in Ft. Myers, which will be a pretty significant test.
If both he and Parmelee, another intriguing prospect, go there and display a good amount of power, I think it’ll be safe to assume that the Twins have a few legit hitting prospects in their organization.
My bad. CF. Either way, the point stands, and CF and SS have essentially the same defensive value.
Just making sure this was the real Ubel.
Im sorry…I just cant let this go.
This is the lineup you would have given the highest OPS at each position:
Posada .972
Fielder 1.003
Utley .978
A-Rod 1.055
Hanley .956
Holiday 1.016
Upton .917
Mags 1.007
Ortiz 1.027
Yup. That team wouldnt win any games.
Dave, I’m missing something. I don’t see where anyone has suggested offense isn’t important.
Yup. That team wouldnt win any games.
That team would win a ton of games. But guys like Ramirez, Utley and Upton are a little better than Ortiz on defense. My claim was that a team full of Ortizes wouldn’t win any games. It’s funny to imagine nine Big Papis watching balls careen around the field like a pinball machine, all the while the opposition is running around the bases and scoring at will. If you think a CF and DH are of equal importance, you don’t understand the game.
That is my point exactly. Offense is WAY more important than defense (see Punto, Nick). This Revere kid is fast. Awesome. He makes contact. Sweet. He is hitting .325…Good for him. HE HAS ZERO POWER. NONE. How does that help this club? I would rather take a kid who is hitting .240, strikes out a ton, walks a ton and hits jacks. Thats what we need. One Jason Tyner is enough.
Michael Burgess plays in the OF somewhere…and I bet he isnt any good. I bet he has no arm, no range and no speed. But if you put up offensive numbers like that, you will be in the show and get paid alot of money. See Ramirez, Manny 1995-2006. Jesus…your right. Big Papi cant field. But guess what? IT DOESNT MATTER.
“But guess what? IT DOESNT MATTER”
See Buckner, Bill 1986.
Wow…
Gosh Dave, you might be the first person I have ever read who says defense doesn’t matter. For any sport in which scoring determines the outcome of the game, defense is at least as important as offense. That shouldn’t be so hard to figure out.
How does that help this club? I would rather take a kid who is hitting .240, strikes out a ton, walks a ton and hits jacks. Thats what we need. One Jason Tyner is enough.
When considering prospects, I think it’s pretty important to remember that the team you see on the field for the Twins now is not anything like the team you will see when Revere or Benson (or Burgess) are ready to play.
Most prospects–even the good ones–aren’t ready to be major league regulars until they are 23. For Revere and Benson, that means it’ll be 2011 before you would start thinking about penciling him into the major league lineup.
Now consider what the 2007 Twins’ opening day lineup was and the 2003 Twins’ opening day lineup was. Cuddyer and Hunter are the only two guys that were in both lineups–and Cuddyer was playing a different position.
If you want to argue that the Twins have a systematic problem throughout their system where they don’t have enough power hitters, then it becomes a problem to overlook a power hitter with no defense for a singles hitter with good defense. And there could be a systematic problem with power in the Twins’ system. But arguing that there are too many singles hitters on the big league roster right now is largely irrelevant–Mauer and Morneau might be around when you would expect Revere or Benson or Burgess to show up, but Punto will be gone, Bartlett will be gone, Tyner will be gone, etc., etc.
(And being a singles hitter in and of itself does not make a player of little value. Ichiro is a singles hitter, and Nick Punto is a singles hitter, but there’s a massive difference between their respective value. Just how well Revere will hit remains to be seen, and Jason Tyner is not his ceiling.)
I’m sympathetic to the notion that the Twins could use more power and that they’ll have to sacrifice strikeouts in order to do so, but Ben Revere could still turn out to be of value. Burgess has certainly stated a good case for his own value, though. As you note, that’s a monster season.
Burgess’ 1000+ OPS turns out to be pretty interesting. (At least to me.)
I went looking for the last under-20 player to hit for a better than 1000 OPS in the GCL. You have to go back all the way to 2002, when there were two:
.402/.482/.665 — Justin Morneau, age 19
.384/.438/.668 — Tony Blanco, age 18
Morneau won an MVP award and Blanco more or less crashed and burned. So there’s certainly a big-time upside with Burgess, but you can also see that nothing is guaranteed at this point.
Defense is 100% irrelevant. A team with 9 batters with 1.000% OBP will never make an out. Jesus Christ couldn’t do anything about it.
Oh dont get me wrong…I think defense matters. In the case of Big Papi, however, he doesnt even play defense and look how big of an impact he has on the game. Let me put it this way: Would anyone care if Torii Hunter left if he was slugging .350? I wouldnt. Im pissed he is leaving because we are losing 25 HR and 100 RBI. Twins fans (and certain beat writers) have notoriously defended players who cant hit because they play good “D”. Im sick of it. Dougie Baseball might have saved X ammount of runs while playing great D at 1st. If he could hit like the average 1b hit, he would of created at least 2X. Same thing for Lil Nicky. Great D. Saved us X ammount of runs. If he could hit like the typical 3b…he would of created at least twice as many runs as he saved. I would back this arguement up with actual stats of league averages, but its Friday and I want to go home.
I think I’m on to something…
I doubt it is what you think - you seem to be mistaking correlation and causation. The only way someone who strikes out that often can make it to the major leagues is if they hit a lot of home runs - a whole lot of home runs. And you can’t do that if the only pitch you can hit is a fastball.
If a guy doesn’t hit in his first two years in the minors, chances are, he never will.
Players who don’t hit well there first couple years are probably more likely to fail than players that do, but here are so many other factors involved that you can rarely draw any meaningful conclusions from two years.
Which has been one level…and a pretty hitter friendly level too.
I don’ think that is true of the gulf coast league. It is a low level of baseball, but it has the same problems as the FSL of heat and humidity that should work to the advantage of pitchers.
What if he was a DH?
Then his chances of ever making it to the big leagues are limited. Remember, David Ortiz almost ended up in Japan and probably would have if Boston hadn’t offered him a major league contract. He passed through waivers where any team could have picked him up. If your bat is your only tool, you have to hit from the first day and keep hitting. That is tough to do in the big leagues.
See Ramirez, Manny 1995-2006
I don’t think Ramirez was a defensive liability in the minor leagues was he?
Offense is WAY more important than defense
No, it isn’t. Which is why you need to point to the top tier of major league hitters to find players who are poor defensive players even by major league standards. And even David Ortiz was named the best defensive first baseman in his league while in the minors. The idea that there are a bunch of slick fielding players in the minors because they lack a bat is mostly myth.
If you have 9 guys all with an OPS over 1.000 you will win every game. I dont care HOW bad thier defense is
Uh, no. Its obviously a ridiculous idea but, if you put a David Ortiz behind the plate, in center field and at shortstop, you would have a hard time winning a single game no matter how well the offense did.
Dougie Baseball might have saved X ammount of runs while playing great D at 1st. If he could hit like the average 1b hit, he would of created at least 2X.
You might want to review Mr. Mientkiewicz’s time with the Twins. From 2001-3, he was an above average hitter–even for a first baseman. Of course, at that point in time, he turned 30 and Morneau became the better option.
But a Mientkiewicz/Punto comparison is not very accurate, even going back to their numbers in the minors. Doug could hit a lot more than Nick.
have notoriously defended players who cant hit because they play good “D”.
Of course they have. Because if they could neither field nor hit they would either be pitching or not in the game.
Would anyone care if Torii Hunter left if he was slugging .350?
If the Twins had a center fielder in the system who the field as well as Hunter and slugged .350, I wouldn’t have a problem. They would need to have a real DH and a real third baseman, but they could get by with a CF who can catch the ball and hit out of the ninth spot with a .260/.320/.360 line as long as he covered the gaps and the wall as well as Hunter. But they don’t have either. Span would be lucky to slug .350 in the majors, but he’s unlikely to get to 90 percent of the balls Hunter does.
Cameron, Rowand, or Byrd would probably suffice, if they could use the savings to fill DH and 3rd.
Who’s Byrd? Is that the same Byrd that just left with the Rangers?
Would be funny if it was…seeing Hunter take Byrd’s job and watching Byrd take over Hunter’s.
“they could get by with a CF who can catch the ball and hit out of the ninth spot with a .260/.320/.360″
Are. You. Serious. If the Twins had another offensive player that bad, I would shoot myself in the foot. You basically just described Ryan Theriot. ISH.
Rowand has an OPS of .895 this year. If we got him to replace T-Offense, I would take my pants off and do a naked jig around NE Mpls. Will it happend? I doubt it. Im sure we will find a Ryan Theriot type player. But hey, he plays great D…
“You might want to review Mr. Mientkiewicz’s time with the Twins. From 2001-3, he was an above average hitter–even for a first baseman.”
2001 Dougie Baseball: 15 HR .851 OPS
2001 Avg 1B: 28 HR .877 OPS
2002 Dougie Baseball: 10 HR .756 OPS
2002 Avg. 1B: 24 HR .806 OPS
2003 Dougie Baseball: 11 HR .843 OPS
2003 Avg. 1B: 24 HR .840 OPS(avg OPS would a lot higher if Tony Batista didn’t put up an absurd .663 for the Orioles…)
As you can see, he was not an above average hitter. In fact, he was below average. WAY below average. Any questions?
And let me get back to why offense is WAY more important the defense…I dont care how good your defense is, if you had the best defensive team ever created, it is still impossible to defend the homerun. If you hit a home run, you score a run 100% of the time. Yes, your defense needs to make the routine plays, dont get me wrong. C, SS and CF are the toughest positions to play in baseball, in that order. Usually a player gets a free pass offensively if they are stud at one of those positions. But lets be honest…who would you rather have at SS? Player X: .986 FPCT .605 OPS. Player Y: .964 FPCT .957 OPS. Obviously, player X is an elite defender but is completely worthless at the plate. Player Y is not a good defender, but has an elite OPS. It is obvious (at least to me) that the difference in defense is not big enough to justify the difference in offensive production. It is impossible to prove just how many runs a defender actually saves by playing great defense. However, Player X has a RC27 of 3, while Player Y has a RC27 of 8. Can you honestly tell me that Player X’s defense SAVES 5 runs per game? No. Effing. Way.
Player X: Omar Vizquel
Player Y: Hanley Ramirez
Defense, even the BEST defense, just isnt as valuable as a good offense.
As you can see, he was not an above average hitter. In fact, he was below average. WAY below average. Any questions?
Doug had a great OBP in those years. When you take into account OBP, Doug was an average or above bat from 1B from 2002-2004. He was ~90 runs above replacement level over that period, and his glove was worth probably ~15 runs above average per year.
So you were looking at a guy who was giving the Twins 4-5 wins above a replacement level player for essentially the league minimum. Mientkiewicz was hardly the Twins’ problem at that point in time.
Are. You. Serious. If the Twins had another offensive player that bad, I would shoot myself in the foot. You basically just described Ryan Theriot. ISH.
If you’d actually read his post, he said that you could get by with it if you used the savings to upgrade at 3B and DH. It’s really expensive to get your offense out of CF, so he proposed not paying a ton of money in CF to fix a problem (the offense) that can be fixed more cheaply at a different positions where defense is not as important. How is that crazy?
Dave -
Lets say a player makes one play a game that another player won’t. That is 162 hits per year. That is a lot of offense to make up. Which is why players who are poor defensive players are usually elite hitters.
In 2005 there were 22000 runs scored and 5000 home runs in the major leagues. Pitchers can survive a few solo home runs, its the guys on base that are the killers.
so he proposed not paying a ton of money in CF to fix a problem (the offense) that can be fixed more cheaply at a different positions where defense is not as important. How is that crazy?
Its only not crazy if you think money is really the most important limitation. I don’t think it really is.
“When you take into account OBP, Doug was an average or above bat from 1B from 2002-2004″
I took into account OBP…
OPS = OBP + SLG
“and his glove was worth probably ~15 runs above average per year”
Is there some stat I can look up to prove this? And if its true, then my point is even stronger. If he only saved 15 runs a year, than he was borderline useless. When the average player at his postition was hitting 24-28 HR a year, he was hitting 10-15. Again, Im not a wizard over here but I am pretty sure a poopy 1st baseman that doesnt save 15 runs/year with his glove but has 25 jacks and 90 RBI is more valuable than Dougie Baseball. The only roster where you can effectively justify having him in your starting lineup would be on the Yankees/Red Sox.
“Lets say a player makes one play a game that another player won’t. That is 162 hits per year. That is a lot of offense to make up.”
Yes! Lets!
I compared the worst fielding SS and the best fielding SS in the MLB. You can have the guy that makes the extra 1 play a game and is worthless at the plate. I’ll take the guy that (like you pointed out) makes 9 out of the 10 plays and an OPS of .957.
I bet my stick wins more games than your glove.
I took into account OBP…
OPS = OBP + SLG
Adding OBP and SLG is not the best way to weight them if you want to correctly account for how a player contributes to run scoring. Mientkiewicz had the 8th-best OBP in the AL in 2003 and the 11th-best OBP in the AL in 2001. OPS is a poor way to measure offense for players with an especially high or low OBP.
In 2003, Mientkiewicz had the 3rd-highest VORP amongst AL first basemen, worth 29 runs above replacement on offense. Jason Giambi was second, worth 53 runs above replacement on offense. If you look at UZR, probably the best defensive metric out there, for that time period, Mientkiewicz was worth about 20 runs more than Giambi on defense over the course of a season. That puts Mientkiewicz at about 46 runs and Giambi at about 50 runs. So Mientkiewicz was essentially as valuable as Giambi, who was the second-best first baseman in the league that year. Defense matters in cases like this.
In 2002, Mientkiewicz had the 13th-highest VORP amongst AL first basemen. Adding in his defense moves him up to 8th or 9th.
In 2001, Mientkiewicz had the 10th-highest VORP amongst AL first basemen, and adding in his defense moves him up to 7th or so.
So overall, he gave the Twins above average production at first base and was getting paid league minimum.
The only way to argue that Mientkiewicz wasn’t valuable from ‘01-’03 is if you completely ignore salary and feel that first basemen need to hit a minimum number of home runs regardless of the other things they do at the plate or in the field.
Giambi only played 85 games ar 1B in 2003. Dougie Baseball played 139. Not the best example, but I get what you are trying to say and I do agree that OBP is more important then SLG. However, lets try to make this simple: Dougie had 11 HR and 65 RBI in 2003. Giambi had 41 HR and 107 RBI. Are you saying that Dougie’s Defense actually made up for that gap? And if so, can you make me think Lil Nicky did the same thing this year? Please?? If you can prove to me that…I will retract all my statements about how offense is more important than defense. I swear.
NOTE: obviously we are not accounting for salary. For the ammount of money Dougie was getting paid, he did a freaking amazing job. But that is not the arguement.
I bet my stick wins more games than your glove.
If my guy gets to 162 more balls, your guy needs to get 162 more hits. There isn’t a hitter in the game who can make that up. Torii Hunter leads the Twins this year with 165 hits so far. Last year, Morneau lead the Twins and didn’t have 162 more hits than Castro.
What?? Please explain how that makes any sense…
What?? Please explain how that makes any sense…
What’s there not to understand. If a player doesn’t get to the ball it becomes a hit doesn’t it? If my guy makes an extra play per game that is one less hit for the other team. Your guy has to make a hit to equal that. There is a reason no team has loaded itself up on the David Ortiz’s of the world. You stick him at shortstop and he can’t come close to making up for his poor defense.
I am removing myself from this conversation.
Thank you for giving me a good laugh.
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