Wednesday update
Posted on December 19th, 2007 – 7:58 PMBy La Velle
Sorry for the delay, but holiday preparations (and a toilet repair today) made it hard for me to stay on schedule.
I spoke with several people today who told me nothing is close regarding a trade of Johan Santana (although that one phone call) could be happening as I write this (O.K. Tyler, are you happy now?). In fact, one person told me that nothing has happened since the end of the winter meetings.
(I’m sure some of you are thinking, “what about the Yankees getting involved, that’s certainly constitutes something”. True but, I like I’ve written before, the Twins never felt the Yanks were officially out of it.)
The Twins are still waiting for that good deal, and it was mentioned to me again today that they are willing to have Santana in a Twins uniform next season rather than make a bad deal.
Anyway, I did write a story for tomorrow’s ink editions, in which I also mentioned the names of a couple pitchers the Twins have sniffed around at. Make sure to check it out.
182 Responses to "Wednesday update"
I just saw on the bottom of ESPN, where Steve Phillips (not sure how much you can trust him) is reporting the Mariners finally inked Silva to a four year deal. I had heard before they were talking about 4 years for $44 million. I guess we’ll see what they ended up having to pay for him.
I am confused what are you meaning by while you were speaking
La Velle, has the Lamb signing shifted the Twins’ focus on Lowrie at all in a deal? It would seem the Twins are set at 3b for a couple of years, and some combo of Harris/Casilla/Plouffe should be able to capably man SS for 2009 and the future (Everett this year).
Is there any thought in that for the Twins at this point? Or would they just view him as simply superior enough ceiling-wise to not even worry about that?
Lavelle, please don’t tell me you are a toilet clogger … AKA Pat Williams.
Funny how you seem to be praying for that “One Phone Call” as if the SOX or Yanks will actually up their offers.
No way SOX will package 2 of Lester/Buc/Ellsbury. They are perfectly content and time is on their side.
I doubt Yanks will significantly up their’s either.
The “one phone call” is referring to that call between GMs where the deal is finalized.
T says - you don’t say?!?
Of course and thats why Theo won’t be calling to add the prospects the twins are dreaming about.
4 years 44 mil for Silva? ….. They got him cheap.
Thankyou so much for clarifying I wasn’t shure if you meant that there was a significant buzz that the two sides where negotiationg … I will shut up now, keep up the good work.
Silva is good, but not that good……….
Possibly “the call” is one GM increasing (or decreasing) his own offer to see if the other GM will increase (or decrease) and come to a different agreement.
For instance, Twins add Rincon and Yankees add midlevel prospect.
I like the idea were the Twins throw in Revere with Santana in hopes that the Red Sox would give us Lester/Busholtz and Elssbury + prospects. If we get Ellsbury we don’t need Revere
Thanks for the update, but your use of parentheses is criminal at best.
From the SOX perspective, if the Yanks do get Santana for Hughes and others, the staffs are still pretty equal:
SOX (1) Becket, (2) DiceK, (3) Schilling, (4) Lester, and (5) Buc/Wake
Yanks (1)Santana, (2) Wang, (3) Pettite, (4) Mussina, and (5) Chamber
Coin-toss and the Yanks are stuck with a 7 year 140 million contract.
All I know is this: One trip to the hardware store, an auger and new wax ring later, and my toilet is unclogged!
God Bless America Le Velle God Bless it
Wasn’t Silva’s ERA 4.19, not 5.19?
La Velle,
Are there any whispers of Joe Nathan trade rumors?
Silva’s 2007 ERA: 4.188 record 13-14 with WHIP of 1.312
2006: 5.947 - 11-15 with WHIP 1.54
2005: 3.445 - 9-8 with WHIP 1.17
2004: 4.212 - 14-8 with WHIP 1.49
He just signed for $11 million a year. I guess Santana is worth $20M at least.
La Velle, to tack onto RC’s post, are there indications that the Cubs WOULD give up Marmol for him?
Or the opposite?
I’d really like Benson as a vet option, personally. The Twins have been linked to him in the past, and I think Rick A. could really harness some of that potential, which he’s shown glimpses of previously.
Jason Jennings is another guy I really hope they take a look at as a vet option.
What about some of the Mets’ packages? It’s highly doubtful more than 1 “premium” prospect of the Hughes/Kennedy/Joba or Ellsbury/Bucholz/LEster group will be included by the Yanks/Sox. Would you be happy with a Gomez/Heilman/Pelfrey+2 others type of package? A little more quantity for a little less quality? Perhaps you could spin some of the Mets prospects for other players?
Although there is a lot of difference in the contracts between Haren and Santana, it is difficult to understand why we have such low offers compared to what they got for Haren.
I think the offers should include 2 of the big three from each the Sox and Yanks. The Mets have to include Reyes. We are talking about the best pitcher in all of baseball.
If we don’t get the offer, don’t trade him.
Eric,
Why wouldn’t you ask for John Maine, with Gomez or Martinez, Heilman and possibly one of the young pitchers.
Has,
Jose Reyes is just too valuable. I wouldn’t trade Reyes straight up for Santana. Every day player - especially with the speed of Reyes - is just more valuable. He’s a walking double (when he walks)
if we could get reyes…. and then get a power center fielder…. we have a world series team….
I agree an every day player can be more valuable during the regular season. What is more valuable than the starting pitcher and closer in the playoffs? You need a #1 pitcher. Who is better than Santana?
has,
the answer is no one! 
Do you think the Sox would trade Beckett for Morneau? Is that a fair offer?
The reason I ask because it is a former MVP and another on of the best pitchers in baseball right now. Reyes isn’t an MVP and Santana is a Cy Young candidate every year.
Has,
Santana is the best regular season pitcher. In the playoffs, he has not been as dominant. I’d trust the ball with him in a must-win game.
In the playoffs, as a Yankee fan, I’ve seen too many pitchers become Sandy Koufax or regular season Santana. LOL.
I wouldn’t trade Jose B. Reyes. I would trade Jose A. Reyes, though, for him.
Beckett has had 1 great year, Santana has had 4 dominating years, no comparison.
No one is better, BUT no one is more expensive.
That has to be factored into what is offered in trade.
There is no use ignoring that fact.
Twins fans (like me) would like to discount the amount of his next contract, but opposing GM’s cannot.
Get a grip on reality!
“I wouldn’t trade Jose B. Reyes. I would trade Jose A. Reyes, though, for him.”
i wont trade jose reyes for johan santana but i will for ervin santana
Maine would be huge. Another young starter with experience to plug into rotation. Add Gomez to give a tryout in center & a couple prospect pitchers. This would allow Twins to trade Nathan for best young talent available, regardless
of position. Note: If Gomez would not work out or need more time in minors, Pridie could be given a shot. Trade Cytana to the NL!
Has,
A shortstop of Jose B. Reyes’ quality is more valuable than a first-baseman like Morneau. Lots of big bat first basemen out there, though Morneau is in the top tier.
But Boston doesn’t need Morneau as much as Boston needs Beckett (see Manny and Ortiz and JD Drew (they hope).
If I am the Twins, I need the bat and I wouldn’t trade Morneau for Beckett. If I was Boston, I might offer Dice-K and Youklis for Morneau.
Actually roundabout, Santana has been damn good in the playoffs on the whole. Check his game log.
He just hasn’t had any kind of run support. That would change this year. This offense should be the best Twins’ offense since 1996, statistically, with just a decent CF.
There are not too many shortstops like Reyes. There are not too many pitchers like Santana. The main difference is their contracts. Put the money (contract) aside, I think the trade would favor the Mets if it were an even up trade.
Santana is the best pitcher in baseball, and starting pitching is the rarest commodity in the game.
Reyes is a top 5 SS, probably 3rd or 4th best.
It’s no contest which is more valuable. Johan.
I think the Twins should definitely consider the Mets offer.
Gomez would be our CF for the next 6 years or so…and hopefully could be a great lead off hitter as well (35+SB’s).
Heilman would help us handle the Joe Nathan situation.
Pelfrey/Humber/Mulvey/Guerra/Smith
Odds are at least one will become valuable major league players for the Twins.
If we could swing a deal involving Fernando Martinez - it would give the Twins a big bat in the farm system…helping fix our farm system’s weakness for hitters.
John Maine and Oliver Perez are young MLB pitchers who will be a solid #2 or #3 for upcoming seasons.
I think Bill Smith could work out a darn good trade with a package of these players…If the Yanks and Bosox are standing pat on their offers, I hope Smith is taking the Mets seriously.
Sorry, but what have the Mets offered?
I would love to see the Angles take the big plunge (just like LaVelle did today)!
Johan Santana faced 878 batters last year and over 900 each of the previous 2 years (with a 72.7% success rate last year), while Jose Reyes had a career high 765 plate appearances with a 35.4% success rate. Of course if you count fielding chances then Reyes had a hand in over 300 more plate appearances but the pitcher has a whole lot more to do with a ground out than the shortstop.
I’d say the pitcher is worth more.
BB,
I agree.
Mets trade could work well for both teams.
I would like Gomez,Martinez,Pelfrey, Mulvey and Guerra, if possible.
Dustin,
I didn’t say he hasn’t been bad. I wrote he hasn’t been as dominant in the playoffs as in the regular season. His WHIP is up in the playoffs over 1 (compared to under 1 for regular season); ERA up to 3.23; his strikeouts per inning are down. He’s only pitched five games. There have been pitchers who have pitched better. Like I said, I’d trust him with the ball in a must-win game.
I wouldnt add Revere in any deal right now… Remember the rubes on here that were whining about how the Twins blew their first pick on “the next Denard Span”? He is relativly unknown now in the prospect world, the type of player that you should hang on two unless you can get proper value for him.
If we are looking at Benson-type pitchers, does that mean we would be more interested in dealing Santana in a deal that does not return a ML ready starter (Ellsbury/Lester/Masterson/+1?).
I am not sure Benson would make our rotation any better… having his wife in the stands might make our fan base look better, but Im not so sure about our team.
Santana’s numbers in the playoffs, by the way:
2003:
Game 1: 4 shutout innings vs. Yanks in first playoff start. Leaves with leg cramps.
Game 2: Retires 10 of 1st 11 Yanks faced, then falls apart after leg cramps set in again. Allows 6 runs.
2004:
Game 1: 7 shutout innings vs. Yanks. 5 k’s. Win.
Game 2: 5 innings, 1 run vs. Yanks. 7 k’s. Bullpen blows game for him.
2006: 8 innings pitched, 2 runs, 8 k’s. Twins lose 3-2 because they’re not patient against Zito’s junk.
He’s been very good in the playoffs. Like I said, little run support.
I wouldn’t trade Reyes for Santana. Reyes gives you a chance to win every day with his glove, his bat and, especially, his speed.
Ryan,
I thought the same thing. If we are going after Benson, why not ask for Wakefield back from the Sox? I would rather develop a young player and let him take a few lumps.
Anna Benson and Jennie Finch in our stands. Count me in!
Roundabout, that’s fair, but those numbers don’t tell the whole story. In 2002 he was a reliever in the playoffs, and his numbers as a starter are incredibly skewed by him battling leg cramps in 2004, his first playoff starts. Everything else, he has been just as dominant as normal in the playoffs as a pitcher.
I don’t know if I would put him at Beckett’s level in the playoffs, who is approaching greatest of all-time discussion there, but Beckett’s the only pitcher that I would argue above him in a must-win game.
As for Reyes/Santana, great post on ab’s effected. The effect of a starter is greater overall. The “every 5 days” argument is hogwash; always has been.
Reyes is a little overrated, I would love to have him… but his second half numbers this past season should give pause to anyone that says he is a top 5 SS. He might end up as a top 5-type SS, but me might end up as a fast, light hitting, good fielding SS…
Dustin,
You left out the 2002 playoffs against Oakland and Angels? Santana cerainly didn’t pitch well against either team.
Ryan, as for Revere, he’s actually rated much more highly by scouts now. He was just ranked the 3rd best player in his rookie league this year, I believe by Baseball America.
Scouts have taken notice that the Twins appear to be right on him and he is not just a “Denard Span” type. I wouldn’t throw Revere away so easily. I think he will be every bit as good as Ellsbury/Gomez in a few years. That doesn’t mean that I don’t want Ellsbury now, however. I believe he can be a Jose Reyes type offensively himself.
Santana was a reliever then roundabout, in his first taste of action. That’s why it’s not really worth mentioning.
In his last three post season starts, Santana is 1-1 with a 1.35 ERA. Sounds pretty dominant to me.
The only reason to trade him to the Mets would be to get him out of the AL. The Mets just can’t match the talent the Red Sox or Hankees have.
Ryan,
Reyes is only 24 years old and he’s improving, for the most part. He’s a work in progress.
I doubt the Mets will trade him, even for Santana.
I doubt they trade him too, roundabout. I agree there.
I think the only argument was who is the better player, and Johan is. If contract wasn’t a factor, Minaya would make that deal YESTERDAY. And the Twins would say no.
I believe there is a rule that you can’t trade a player until a year after you sign him, so you can forget about throwing Revere in any deal unless they wait until the July trading deadline.
Reyes may be third or fourth right now, but he’s only 24 years old and his contract is dirt cheap. He also plays awesome defense, most “experts” already refer to it as gold glove caliber.
Santana is the best, and everyone knows what he is. But Reyes could still improve a whole lot. SP is pretty rare, its not like young five tool shortstops grow on trees. The boost that gives your team is immeasurable, its like an automatic bonus for your lineup, top quality production out of a position where you can afford to expect virtually nothing. And its not like even light hitting, good defensive SSes are a dime a dozen, let alone ones that are already among the best in the game at 24. The biggest FA SS this offseason was David Eckstein. He’s light hitting and his defense isn’t even that great.
If not including Reyes means the Mets aren’t a player, then they’re out of it. I know you Twins fans are having wet dreams about him, but the opinion of the Mets front office does count for something here. It just doesn’t make sense in terms of the roster or the economics for the Mets. Reyes changes an offense completely. With him, the Mets have an “O” that projects to be top third in the NL. Without him, they’d probably have one about dead average for the NL, if not worse. Moving Reyes for Santana takes a rotation somewhere dead smack in the mid-range for the NL and boosts in to a top third rotation. So basically, your adding about $18 million in payroll per year over seven seasons for what looks like a pretty lateral move.
Why would the Mets do that? I mean, they’re desperate, but its just not helpful. Plus every Mets fan in New York would storm the gates of Shea with pitchforks and torches if Reyes got moved, even for Santana. Yes, he’s that much fun to watch.
Sawdustking,
The Mets may not HAVE Sox/Yankee talent level, but they may OFFER more.
I think that is more important.
Dustin,
I don’t profess to be able to read Minaya’s mind. I think Reyes is that special player that can dominate a game with his bat, glove and legs. I like that over 162 games, plus playoffs, over 40 games for a pitcher.
It’s an age-old question. I can see how one wouldn’t trade Santana for Reyes, as well.
Unless the Mets throw in Reyes or Wright, or the rumored offers from the Red Sox and Yankees were mis-reported, then the Mets just don’t have what the other two have.
It would be worth something to get him out of the AL though.
Dustin-
You and I agree on Revere, I was making the point that he is an exciting player, thus we shouldnt trade him. BP has him as our top prospect.. But selling him now is a bad idea, he is a rising talent. If he puts up another year like this, his Span-compairing detractors will go away and he will be one of the most prized position players we have had in a long time.
I was responding to an earlier post in which someone suggest that we include him in a Santana deal.
Sadustking,
I think a package of Gomez, Martinez, Pelfrey, Mulvey and Guerra is better than Hughes-Cabrera.
I do not think the Twins will be able to get Reyes. He has already shown the ability to play in the majors. The Twins will only be able to get high level prospects with very little or no ML experience. That is why I am worried about a deal during the seaon. Some of these prospects we have talked about will have the experience and successs.
Ya, I gotcha Ryan.
No worries man.
It’s a pointless debate anyway because we won’t trade him, just like the Mets won’t trade Reyes. It’d be like the Yanks trading Jeter.
Would they trade him for Santana? Of course they SHOULD (and the Twins should say no) but they wouldn’t for PR purposes.
Sane, that very well may be, but it’s NOT as good of a package as either Ellsbury/Lowrie/Masterson/Kalish, or Lester/Lowrie/Masterson/Bowden/Kalish.
Mark and Roundabout-
I agree that Reyes could be special, but he could plateau and perform the rest of his career like he did at age 24 (see Cristian Guzman- not comparing talent, but he didnt improve after age 24). His speed is difference making, but his OBP is not all that impressive. Unless that changes, he will not be the best at his position.
It might get better, and again, as a Twins fan, I would love to have him on our team. But what Mets, Sox and Yankees fans that post on here do not get is that Santana is a very, very special player. He might be the best pitcher of his generation- and he is a near lock (barring injury) to be a Hall of Famer.
I dont think the same can be said about Reyes.
Saw,
David Wright is “king of Nu Yawk.” Mets fans - especially the boys and yound ladies who buy jerseys/merchandise) would burn down Shea and the unbuilt new ball park.
That would be gutsy trade for the Mets. The Twins wouldn’t do it straight up.
Also, I agree that this is a pointless conversation. Reyes will not be involved in a deal… and he shouldnt be.
Sane I agree…I actually like that package the most of all the deals from the Yanks, Bosox, and Mets.
I agree it is a pointless conversation because he won’t be involved in a deal….but he should be.
And the Mets will need Reyes because they might end up with Kyle Lohse in their rotation… yuck.
Agreed, Ryan. Good thoughts again.
People don’t seem to realize just how good Johan is. For those that haven’t read it, I would point anyone to Jayson Stark’s article of a couple weeks ago, outlining just how dominant Johan has been, historically.
And agreed on Reyes. I love the guy; he might be the most fun player to watch in baseball. But he has a LOT of work to do before he even catches 2 SS’s in his own division, Hanley Ramirez and Jimmy Rollins.
Ryan,
I am with you 100 percent on Santana’s talent and Hall of Fame resume. I love him. I have a friend who is a Twins fan and for the past year, I have kidded him about how good Johan would look in pinstripes. I never really thought it would happen. I still think the Twins should open the check-book and keep him.
The Twins should ask for the Moon and stars for Santana.
As a Yankee fan, I’d love to have Santana. I prefer not to pay the price, even if Santana is worth it short-term. I prefer, as a fan, to watch Chamberlain, Hughes, Kennedy, and eventually Jackson develop and see how good they can become as Yankees.
With or without Lohse, the Mets rotation is gross.. how will they ever compete with LA or Arizona?
or the Padres, or the Braves (improved rotation), or the Rockies, or the Phillies (Myers back to the starting rotation) for that matter.
The Mets really don’t have a great chance of the playoffs again this year with that staff.
Dustin,
Neither of your Red Sox packages have both an MLB-ready CF and an MLB-ready starting pitcher.
My Mets package does. (Gomez-Pelfrey)
Actually, my only point is that the Mets DO have enough young talent to make a competitive deal.
roundabout- I would love it if the Twins would open their checkbook and keep him, but to be honest, I am not even sure if they have a checkbook.
Twins fans have bought into this small market crap (even though we are the 14th largest market in Baseball and we MADE $20 million dollars last season according to Forbes) so we (me included) are a sorry bunch. All we can hope for now is to get some good peices that can help us for the next few years- and maybe pull a superstar out of the hat (Hughes, Gomez, Ellsbury, etc).
It really is a little pathetic…
Ryan:
Even if Reyes only did marginally better than what he did in 2007 for his entire career, he’d still be a top five SS. The only thing I’d really liked to have see in the grand scheme would have been a few more 2Bs and 3Bs. But 10-15 HR (and that’s Shea, convert it to a neutral park and the ceiling is probably more like 20), 70-80 SB, 110+ R and a .350+ OBP to go with great range and a cannon arm at SS is pretty darn good. In fact, its insanely good. And if he could sacrifice a few of those SB for a few more XBH and maybe a slightly better SB% (like 2006) you’d have an MVP caliber player.
Did he regress a bit in the second half? Sure, I watched every game. But he also started 2006 ice cold. David Wright didn’t hit a HR in all of April 2007, yet he finished with 30 and MVP-type numbers. Young players have ups and downs, and its always a risk that maybe they’ll have a down they don’t recover from. But Reyes should also be one of the most valuable commodities in all of baseball right now given his age, contract status, and incredibly wide range of skills.
I’ve heard Luis Castillo comparisons, which is just completely false. First, Castillo plays 2B. Not exactly a hot position either, but not nearly as tough to find as SS. Aside from that, Castillo only once cracked 60 SB, at age 24. Reyes is 24 now and he’s already cracked that mark three three seasons in a row. Castillo also never hit more than 6 HR in a season. Reyes has never hit fewer than 7 in a full season, and hit as many as 19 (2006). And finally, Castillo has never slugged above .394. Reyes was at .486 in 2006 and .421 in 2007 with the bad second half (to go with 12 HR, twice as many as the most Castillo ever hit). The only place where they rival each other at all is defensively, and even there given Reyes’s arm strength he’ll likely be the one history favors by comparison, even if all things are equal and Reyes’s legs go a little early.
Ya, but Gomez is only questionably ready this year, Sane. Ellsbury is certainly much “more” ready than him in CF.
And I’m not sure Pelfrey would even start for the Twins this season. I think the Twins would have 5 better options than him right now, even without Johan.
I agree they have enough talent to make a deal though; I just think it will be very tough for them, and the Twins would essentially be giving up on this year with their package (unless it’s Maine as part of the package in return, which I doubt; the Mets would just be opening another hole in their rotation). I don’t think the Twins would be giving up on this season with either Sox package.
Sane- the Mets do, but the problem is they would have to entice the Twins with quantity… they have the farm system to put together a deal for Santana, but they dont have one that could survive a deal for him. They would have to gut their organization… for a team with some old players, that would be a really bad move.
Mark, who compares Reyes to Castillo? That is laughable, as you say.
By the way, congrats on the (awful) Castillo signing. hahahahaha
I love it. The worst signings of the offseason for an infielder (Castillo), pitcher (both Silva and Lohse-tied for worst), outfielder (Hunter), and reliever (Romero, though Linebrink might barely edge him based on the draft picks given up), all figure to be to very recent ex-Twins.
Kind of makes be feel a bit warm and fuzzy inside, actually.
Mark- you do not have to argue with me that Reyes is better than Castillo… I agree with you. I used Guzman as a comparison.
Dustin, if your point is that if the Mets could swap Reyes for Santana and give Santana essentially the same contract Reyes has right now, you’d probably be right, the Mets should do that deal. But if you also assume the Twins couldn’t sign Santana to that kind of deal (if they could, why would they trade him?), I disagree that they should say no to Reyes. Where would you get anything better?
I understand Reyes doesn’t have the HOF resume Santana does, but NO ONE on the cheap will. Reyes does have the talent to build a HOF resume, and yes he could also level off (although 60 SB in today’s game and GG defense at SS to go with 10-15 HR and a decent OBP isn’t a horrible thing to level off at), but so could any other cheap player you might want.
Silva might not be a bad signing for Seattle, too pricy for sure and a good year too long. But they need a guy like him… innings eater, throws strikes.
He would have had the second best ERA on Seattle’s rotation last year. In Safeco he shouldnt have to worry about HRs as much…
It just might work out for them. I would say Lohse would be a much worse signing… but neither even come close to 10 mil for Gagne…
Okay I remember reading someone once say that on this blog about Reyes vs. Castillo. I was still a little steamed about it lol.
And hey, the Castillo signing may have been bad, but at least it wasn’t even the worst 2B signing of the offseason. That honor goes to a former Met, Kaz Matsui.
Reyes will be cheap for about one more year… if he is arbitration eligable next year, he might get 7-10 mil.. a long term deal might be in the 15+ range.
Well Mark, you can rest assured that I did not make that comparison. Again, I would say he is a step above a Guzman type. Fast, flashy, will hit some XBH but will slump and may plateau.
Ryan, except that Silva will get killed by lefties with that rightside infield defense.
Also, Reyes is signed to a reasonable contract through 2010 I believe. He definitely has great value contract-wise.
And Mark, I’m not so sure about that, just based on durability. I don’t see Castillo making it through THIS season, let alone 4 of them.
Castillo was 32 a decade ago… I think Rafel Furcal’s birth certificate was more accurate.
Dustin and RyanW,
You each made a good point that I hadn’t considered.
I now see why the Red Sox trades are more likely to occur.
Also funny how Twins fans are demanding so much young talent in return for Santana.
Yes Santana is the best in the game but he will be a $150 million free agent after next season. The SOX or Yanks can just sit back and wait and not have to give up any prospects.
Time is NOT on the Twins side. Once the season is underway, it will not be in Santana’s interest to agree on a trade as he can just sail it out until free agency and then let the bidding begin.
Bubba, no, they can’t just “sit back and wait” and sign him.
SOMEONE will trade for him. And once they do, your chance is gone. After giving up top prospects, whoever that team is (and it doesn’t have to be NY/Boston-it could be the Mets, Angels, Dodgers) will surely sign him.
Their only window to get the best pitcher in the game is right now.
Dustin, Drean-on! The money alone has already scared away most of baseball already. To give prospects on top of that? The SOX and the Yanks are the only teams with enough dough to pull it off. Both teams are happy with their young talented arms.
The SOX already have Beckett who by way is one of the greatest post-season pitchers of all-time.
The SOX and Yanks also know that Fenway is unkind to Lefties as Santana hasn’t been so stellar there (WHIP over 1.5 I beleive).
3 things will happen to Santana: (1) Trade to SOX with their current offers, (2) trade to Yanks with maybe a slighty better offer but not including a second high level prospect, or (3) Free-Agency with the Twins getting 2 draft picks.
This is rather old news on Silva and Seattle, but just wanted to put up a link in case any would like to read it. Their writer seems to think BOS is the front runner for a Santana trade, something that is perhaps a bit premature.
first of all reyes is cheap for the next four years he signed a contract last year… but he wont be included in any deal and neither will maine. What the mets and twins talked about was Gomez, Pelfrey, Humber, Mulvey and Guerra for santana… the reason it hasnt happened is that is every decent pitching prospect in the mets system so they dont want to give away the whole farm system. I think that Gomez, Pelfrey Humber Guerra carp should be good and might happen if it gets drawn out enough
If we receieved Masterson in any deal, where would he playing in 2008? bullpen? AAA? starting?
How is Santana for Ellsbury-Lowrie-Masterson a “bad deal”??? And if it isn’t, then there’s no risk of a “bad deal” if they just pull the trigger on it.
This is not a Dan Haren deal; we don’t have that type of leverage. And, truth be told, I think we’d all be happy getting a potential superstar CF that’ll be here for the next seven years for giving up Santana, no?
Or, are we going to end up like we have in the Torii Hunter debacle. There’s no way he should have been here after the trade deadline last year. Instead, the Cowardly Lion should have moved him for his replacement, a 3B, and perhaps another prospect. Instead, we’re left with meaningless draft choices and no one to fill the CF hole.
Santana for Ellsbury-Lowrie-Masterson is a very good trade, for a number of reasons. It’s time to dump that garbage about Billy Boy not wanting to receive a “bad trade” while moving Santana.
Billy, are you a man? Or, are you the same pussy that you replaced???
Ellsbury is worth the trade alone. Come on. Really, what leverage do we have??? We wanted Ellsbury to be available, and Theo was kind enough to finally give in on that. Now, to think that Santana and his one-year contract plus $140 mil therafter is worth both Ellsbury AND Lester is fucking ridiculous. That’s utter nonsense, man.
Pull the trigger, Billy.
Santana has pitched exactly one game in Fenway since May 2003 (that’s almost 5 full seasons), and in that start (Sep. 06) he went 5 innings and gave up 2 earned runs. He has less than 16 innings in his career at Fenway. Lefties may be at a disadvantage in Fenway and Santana may be no different, but to draw conclusions from his performance there thus far in his career is laughable. By that logic, I think the Giants should go after him; he has a 0.00 career ERA in AT&T park.
Guerra is a great prospect too, with lots of potential:
He is 6′5” 200 lbs, 18yrs old…a hard throwing right handed SP, and once he fills out could be a great SP…pitched at high A level last year
If we arent able to get both Gomez and FMartinez in the deal, I think he would need to be involved.
Johan and Span
for
Gomez, Heilman, Pelfrey, Humber, Guerra
Lala72-
How about packaging Santana with Harris?
If we gave them Harris as well maybe the Bosox would give us Ellsbury, Lester, and Lowrie
That way we can plug Lester into the rotation, let Lowrie/Casilla/Punto figure out a 2b, and Ellsbury (the most important part of the trade) to play CF.
Lala watch your language please.
ahhhhh. trade him baby….ohhh..ahhhh
Forgive me if I missed something here, but the Twins cannot trade Revere as he was a draft pick last year, and I believe the rule is that you can’t trade someone for a year after they are drafted or is it signed?
I have no problem adding a prospect or two in a deal with Santana to the Red Sox or the Yankees.
Still wishing the Dodgers felt that they needed another arm, and offered some of the GOLD at the end of their rainbow for him, but kind of like Leprechaun in general… it seems a foolish Santa Claus kind of make believe now.
Santana, Span, and Pina to the Red Sox for Ellsbury, Lester, Lowrie, Masterson
Also does anyone know are we going to have Revere up for Spring Training at all? I don’t want to speculate on him even being close to major league ready I’m not that silly, but I’d really like to see what the kid’s got other than a boxscore.
Would So Taguchi be a possible fit for the Twins in CF for a year or two? He hit .290 with a .350 ob% last year in just over 300 ab’s.
He’s not Kenny Lofton, and I think he’s a better leadoff option for less years (contract wise) than Corey Patterson would be.
Plus it would give us a connection with the Japanese market, and while he’s not Ichiro or Dice K… it might be nice to get a little of the Japanese league flair to the team?
Beckett has had 1 great year, Santana has had 4 dominating years, no comparison.
Beckett has an LCS and a WS MVP, you’re right there is no comparison.
Beckett is an Elite pitcher that is coming into the prime of his career, Santana is an elite pitch that is trying to maintain an Elite career. If it was just one must win game I think most GM’s would take Beckett over Santana, regular season is probably a tossup
all i know is that Revere would play well in a marketing sense in Boston
BB:
Putting Span in the deal with Johan doesn’t really do anything. If you remember, there aren’t many Twins fans who are very high on him.
A trade such as the one you suggest is the same as those who suggest throwing Rincon or Punto into the mix. Where people suggest adding him just becaues they don’t want him on the Twins.
All I want for Christmas is the trigger pulled on the Johan trade.
D-Diver, you remind me of the Sox fans who kept trying to convince everyone that after one good season Varitek was the best catcher in the game. I am sorry, but baseball history is filled with pitchers who had one good season bookended by a bunch of iffy ones, never to repeat past glory. Is Beckett in that category? Who knows, but he does have the front of the bookend and he does pitch in Fenway — where pop ups are home runs.
[…] It has been a frustratingly quiet month for Red Sox fans and media after we were tantalized with whispers of a blockbuster Johan Santana deal during the Winter Meetings. The Twin Cities media guys, who are probably the best source for real news at this point, insist that nothing is close right now. Given the fact that former Twin starter Carlos Silva just inked a 4-year deal with Seattle, Minnesota now has a little more incentive to ponder keeping Santana in 2008. […]
Silva was never in the Twinks starting pitching equation for 2008 so his signing has no affect on us.
Hawk
I agree. The Twins knew they didn’t want to give him any where close to what he was going to get on the open market. I’m happy for Carlos though, the Twins fans never really appreciated him while he was here. Hopefully Mariners fans don’t have too high of expectations for him though. After looking at a couple of their message boards it didn’t seem like many of the fans were to happy about signing Silva.
DonE
That might be true if Beckett hadn’t already had 2-3 good seasons, including the 2003 WS MVP and a 6-0 record and sub 2.00 ERA in 9 starts in the postseason.
In 2003 your comment might have made more sense.
It is really too bad that Carlos is going to the M’s for such big money. I’d have high expectations if I were an M’s fan based on the money alone. Carlos just isn’t going to be an $11M man in any season. So they are doomed to disappointment.
What’s interesting about the M’s management strategy is that most teams could/should be able to find a minor leaguer (if given the chance) who could produce the same numbers as Silva. Silva is ok but there are plenty of up and coming “ok” pitchers in the minors.
Exactly, Hawk. Why no patience with a rookie pitcher? Especially with the huge salary difference, why wouldn’t you just give a kid a chance?
I think Silva is going to be good for the Mariners. Perfect place for him to go. Pretty good pitcher’s park, good defense and decent hitting. Plus there is little pressure pitching there (instead of the Mets) and the division has only one other good team. I bet he matches some of his best seasons with the Twins. Go Chief!!! Throw dem sinkers!!!
ESPN Chat with BA’s John Manuel:
I wouldn’t trade Santana for three pretty good players, or one star and two OK guys. I would rather have quality–star pitcher, star hitter, under my control. Like I said, Adam Jones & Morrow might do it for me (sure, you want to throw in Jeff Clement or Rob Johnson or Ryan Rowland-Smith or Wladimir Balentien, I’ll be happy) . . . but they are going to play either Punto, Casilla or some such at 2b; Everett at SS; I guess Brendan Harris at 3b. Who’s their DH? LF is Kubel, Cuddyer slugged .433 last year . . . so yes, they need a power, impact bat.
He forgot Lamb though.
And Delmon Young.
Silva should give the Twinks back a 10% commission for the wonderful opportunity we gave him so he could get $44mil….otherwise he would still be a relief pitcher in Philly.
ok beckett had 20 wins last year.. with a what? 3.75 era!!!!!!! the only reason he was good in the regular season was his run support..
santana, he had a bad (bad for him) year and got 15 wins with a…. 3.20 era!!!!!
theres the big difference.. in becketts best season ever he was on the best run support team in baseball and had a adverage era….. santana had a bad season (for his standards) and had one of the best eras in the game…… if you gave satana the ball in the red soxs hands… he could get 30 wins…
so dont give this junk on bekket is better and he had one amazing year… cause you know what? if it wasnt for his run support and you put bekett on a less run support team he would have been a .500 pitcher… so there you go..
Good article today LEN3. I haven’t heard the word “dickering” used in quite a while.
Kris Benson? Wasn’t he on the Twins radar a number of years ago? (think he was still with the Pirates at the time). I’d be concerned since he’s coming off a season long injury break. Especially since we’ve already got a few guys who have injuries they’re coming back from (Crain, Liriano).
Tedge, that ESPuNdit has no idea what he’s talking about. If he thinks Punto and Casilla are in the starting nine following last week’s signings he hasn’t been paying any attention to the team.
Morneau, Harris, Everett, Lamb. That’s the starting infield (barring major injury or severe under production in Spring Training).
wanna know whats funny? i looked up lirianos stats and he didnt pop up lol
i had to go into historical players LOL
..,…..
T,
He admitted later that he forgot Lamb. His point was that he felt we needed less players in the trades, but with more potential to be superstars. He doesn’t view anyone in the Red Sox package as having superstar potential.
what’s a redsox or yankee fan blogging here with their wishful dreams that no team is going to give up good prospects.
Hopefully LaVelle gets more insight on a Mets offer.
Nobody else like Morneau or Revere are going anywhere. Just dreaming up trades is nonsense.
This is a Twins site. if Silva and other 500 pitchers can get 11 million a year. $20 mil is very reasonable for thebest pitcher. If I were the Twins would offer 4 years guaranteed with play option for year’s 5 and 6 at the same money yet he can test the market as a free agent.
Bring in Benson or Jennings we need a few veterans.
Win Twins!
So… who do we have on the table for potential superstars? Hughes from the Yankees and maybe F-Mart from the Mets? Problem is that they’re not getting paired with anyone else to tip the scale in favor of those trades.
tedge,
very true…. i think we should be looking for the superstar talent and less players… like reyes or hughes,joba or cano… or bulcholtz and……. oh wait thats all they have for superstar potential.. and jones and morrow from the mariners…
i think we should get atleast one superstar in this trade… not a prospect.. someone who is already proven.. this is why i think we are waiting for the mets to give up reyes…
I think Silva is going to be good for the Mariners. Perfect place for him to go. Pretty good pitcher’s park,
Good pitcher’s park yes, but not necessarily for a guy like Silva.
Greg,
The problem I have with signing Benson or Jennings is you are going to be paying them a ton of money, with nearly as many question marks as the young guys we already have. Plus, you’re going to be taking away a rotation spot from one of our young guys.
The youngsters are as ready as they are going to get to pitch in the Majors, they will take significant lumps this year, but they will struggle early in the Majors no matter what, so let’s get it out of the way in a year when you likely aren’t going to compete anyway.
If we’re waiting for the Mets to give up Reyes, get ready to have a draft party in a year, because all we will get is another year of Johan and some draft picks.
I honestly believe that what’s out there is all there’s going to be, and I’m fine with that.
Snepp,
Thanks for the link. I wasn’t saying that Silva has All Star potential, I was just saying he went to a good place to continue what he has been doing. I think he reduced his chance of being a free agent bust. He did not improve his chance of being a free agent bargain (if you can call $11 mill/year a bargain). I wouldn’t be surprised if he gives the Mariners exactly what he gave the Twins. After all that’s what they’re paying for.
Having Santana on our roster at the begining of the year WOULD be a bad deal. Get something done.
KB,
I agree on Benson and Jennings (surprise, suprise!!!). Why sign them when we have guys that should be as good for a fraction of the cost. Why swap experience questions for injury questions. It doesn’t make sense to me either.
I have a hard time seeing the Twins just take the offers that are there. They still have TR on staff, and the front office is still pretty shrewd. They have drawn the line, and are waiting to see which team will blink to sweeten their offer. (how much remains to be seen)
And really, with Hank in the picture, I think it is a very prude and smart move.
I’m not advocating keeping Santana instead of trading him for a package of good prospects, I just wanted to put someone’s differing viewpoint out there for the sake of conversation. If the question is take the current Red Sox package or go into 2008 with Santana and then lose him to FA. I take the package. Ellsbury is good, Lowrie should be. The other two arms are supposed to be solid prospects. That’s sounds better than two draft picks. Especially considering the Twins recent trend of reaching in the high rounds for signability guys.
i dont care that reyes is a (super star) well you know what… santana is the best pitcher in baseball.. reyes is not.. there should be no problem with reyes being given up for santana…
and some of you are crazy saying a straight up deal reyes for santana would be bad for the mets… COME ON!!!!!!!!
I’m not saying that its a bad move to wait to see if someone blinks and throws in a little extra. I’m saying that they have to make a deal for him. They cannot have him at the end of next season.
The feelings that I disagree with are the one’s that we can’t back down and have to get a ton of prospects. Like Mr. Anderson says up there , the worst possible deal for the Twins is to make no deal at all.
Tedge: Who are the “other 2 arms”? I know Masterson has been lumped in there often, but who is the other one?
2 things
1. I would be shocked if Santana doesn’t sign for more than $20 mil per season. With the way the Market is going he could probably ask for at least $22-$23 million per. I don’t think it will matter that much to the teams interested in signing him but to a team like the Twins an extra $20 million over the life of a contract could be huge.
2. You guys act like pitchers like Benson and Jennings are going to be getting $10 million per season. The guys mentioned in LEN III’s article are all huge risk guys. I don’t see them getting more than a couple mil per season with tons of incentives. So really the difference financially between one of these veterans and a young pitcher is going to be around $2 million. The advantage with the veterans is that if they return to form they could be a huge bargain. The Twins have seen this guys pitch in big situations before and know what they have. Young pitchers very seldomly have huge first years.
RyanW,
What happens if noone crosses the line. Does it move?
liondragon: The Mets system is much like ours in that it is very thin on position talent. There are some interesting possibilities for pitching (especially if they would actually slow down and not rush some of these guys), but position players are needed in that system. They can’t go giving up their star middle infielder with no one to replace him from a position standpoint or from a PR standpoint. Their system will not survive it.
jama,
The fact that young pitchers rarely have good first years is exactly why I want them to pitch this year. If we sign one of these high risk guys, even if you’re siging them for a million or two, you aren’t going to sign them for more that one or two years at most, then they have a big year, then you’re right back to where you started and they can go sign a big contract somewhere else.
I just don’t see the payoff for the risk that you are required to take for these guys. One of the reasons the Twins are so obsessed with young pitching is so they don’t have to take risks on guys like these, like alot of other teams do. Why not reap the benefits of hogging young pitching?
JT,
I know Masterson is one, I was just speculating on a second. I assume the trade would involve 4 players coming back and I also assume the Twins would want a pitcher (to help cover for the effects of losing Santana on the future staff). The Red Sox have a lot of second tier prospects to choose from, it just depends on who the Twins want and who the Red Sox are willing to give up. Personally, I say forget a middle pitching prospect and get the OF Kalish. People say good things about him.
Jama,
I bet Benson or Jennings get 5 or 6 million a season. A lot of teams are in on those guys. 2 or 3 million probably won’t get it done. Just my opinion. Nothing factual about it.
It’s agonizing to watch and wait but Smith has played his hand correctly thus far. None of offers he has been presented is a good trade…parts of them yes…but as a package no way.
Hughes will be good. Cabrera is a RF not a CF and we have plenty of RFs on the team. Kennedy and others would be nice prospects but less than 50% of the prospects ever sniff the bigs.
Lester should be ok but a medical gamble. Ellsbury will be good. Lowrie, Masterson, etc….would be nice prospects but again….are “prospects”.
Buchholz could be a star but BoSox aren’t trading him just like we won’t trade Liriano.
Give it another month and if things don’t change then we change strategy by
A) Adding a player or two with Santana for a trade.
B) Adding an okay CF (Crisp)in a minor trade which would relieve the pressure to fill 2 starting positions with a Santana trade. We could then concentrate more on adding stronger position players to our farm system.
To back up KB. Most of the Twins young pitchers have had their struggling first years. Now is the time for Baker, Boof, and Slowey to start turning their potential into performance. I know the rotation will be young, but we should start to see them grow this year. If we sign Benson or Jennings, that’s just one more year of major league development that some of these guys lose.
I was just thinking as I was driving to work today. “I’m not going to worry about the fact that the Twins are taking their time on the Santana deal, as long as they don’t pull off a trade for someone to play CF, I’m confident that they will be smart and move him before the season.”
The day they pull the trigger on a trade for Coco or sign Lofton (unlikely) or someone else to play CF this year…..then I’m going to panic!
Thanks for having my back, Tedge.
And, yes…. I do think about the Santana trade and the Twins that often, I’m sorry, I can’t help it.
can someone give some news? la velle? someone????? im getting bored
Was Kalish drafted last year? Or am I confused? If he was just signed last year, he couldn’t be traded, right?
I’m tempted to agree with you Tedge on the pitching prospect front. We’ve got decent pitching prospects too. Unless we’re getting Bucholtz or Hughes to take a spot in the rotation for next year, the second tier pitching prospects are not as enticing as high-upside position talent.
I think the best case scenario for signing a guy like Benson or Jennings would be to reestablish them as pitchers and then spin them off at the deadline for more prospects. Kind of like what the Royals did last year with Dotel. They had no need for him, but he became valuable at the trade deadline and got them a starting pitcher for their rotation this year (Davies).
no kalish was drafted in 2006
Does anyone have any insight on Mike Pelfrey? I’ve heard the opinion that he could benefit from a change of scenery and really blossom with the right pitching coach. Anyone else follow Mets prospects with an opininon on this kid?
pelfrey stinks hes not who we want… we want maine or perez
I really don’t know much about the Mets prospects. They seem to be pretty disappointing from the little I’ve seen of them, but I would like to learn more about them.
pelfrey is like a slowey just if you were wondering.. pelfrey doesnt stink hes just not a front of the line starter
We don’t want Perez!!!
lets go on metsblog.com and see what the mets fans say about there people… if there true new york fans.. there may say that pelfrey is there super star of the future..
We already have Maine - his name is Scott Baker. I like Perez, but I can’t imagine we’d target him and prefer him to what we have already.
Thanks for the insight, lion. “Pelfrey stinks” really gives me the goods.
well pelfreys stats were as follows.. tell me if this is good or not then?
3-8 5.55 era 15 starts hes 23 years old..
i guess he could get better but its a risk.. atm hes not that great
I think Benson is worth it just so Anna Benson comes along. Grrr….
This is off topic, but does anyone think Loshe will sign a “Silva-like” contract. I think he will get about the same, or maybe more from the Mets.
His one or two dominant innings/game will attract someone to pay him alot of money. They will think (just like I used to), “wow, when he can become more consistant, he will really be dominant”.
Loshe will go down as the one Twin that frustrated me more than any other in their history.
“RyanW,
What happens if noone crosses the line. Does it move?”
I dont know, I think that remains to be seen. If no one moves, personally, I would take the Ellsbury deal. As for no move being the worst move, that also remains to be seen.
It is possible, although not very likely, the Twins could deal him during the season. However, if he pitches for us this season, we may be competitive come the deadline. His no trade clasue is a little overrated as it will be assured that the team that acquires him will have a window to work out an extension. I think most pitchers would rather have the security of an extension (especially a monster one like he will get) than risk an injury in the last half of a season. Also, as a competitor, he may prefer playing on a team that has a chance (assuming we would be out of it).
Also, I could see a senario in with a Lester/Crisp/Lowrie deal could be a flop. I like Lowrie, but I have been wrong many times before (i.e. Jesse Crain)
i still don’t think in this market signing santana for say 6yr @20m plus 13m next yr for a total of 7 yrs 133,000 doesn’t make some sense. even replacing him with a silva type player (.500) 11-14m over 7 yrs saves the team around 50m. thats not a lot over 7 yrs for who he is. compare:
koufax- 165-87 .655 w pct 2.76 era and 1.03 so per inn.
santana- 93-44 .679 w pct. 3.22 era and 1.05 so per inn.
he’s better than koufax except era and sandy pitched in the dead ball high mound era.
how many times does a team have a multiple cy young winner in his prime and he’s approaching hof #’s if he stays healthy.
smith-pohlads sing him. he’s a once in a generation player.
I see the Mets prospects just dismissed everywhere out of hand - no analysis. It’s hard to get a feel for trade possibilities as a result. Maybe Gleeman will answer this cry for help and do an analyis like he did for the Yankees.
can a trade just happen? this is borring… LA VELLE WE WANT NEWS!!!!!
Pretty sure Benson divorced Anna, so it’s unlikely she’ll be sitting in the Dome watching him pitch. Put the dirty dugout fantasies away.
Kalish was drafted in 06, but signed very late for a pretty nice signing bonus- I think he used a Va scholarship as leverage. But he just played a handful of games in 06.
One of the reason’s I would be nervous about keeping Santana and trying to move him a the deadline, is I think with him, around the deadline, there’s a real possibility they could be within 5-6 games. Then what do you do? Everyone will be mad if you trade him and say you’re not trying, but if you keep him, you still have to compete with the Indians and Tigers and have a very good shot at not even making the playoffs.
what if we traded santana and nathan for… reyes gomez martinez maine and maybe one more?
JT- I do not think the Mets match up very well. It isnt because they dont have the prospects to get a deal done, I think they do. It is just that it would take almost ALL of them to get a deal done. And the Mets do not have any organizational depth. We would likely ask for Gomez or Martinez and basically all of the minor league quality pitching. Leaving them with a good OF prospect and a system of one and two star prospects. I dont think they can do it. I think the Mets desperatly want Santana to become a FA- that might be the only way he ends up in Queens.
Pelfrey was a big time prospect for the mets that they drafted out of Wichita St. in 2005 and gave him a big signing bonus. He progressed very quickly through the minors but had a less than inspiring debut in the majors. This reduced his prospect status from potential #1 starter to more middle of the rotation. There are still many people that think that Pelfrey will be a very good pitcher and that 2007 was just growing pains that so many young pitchers experience. He’s 23, 6′ 7″ and throws very hard. He’s pretty much a two pitch pitcher (Fastball, changeup) and has to work on developing his slider. He wouldn’t be that bad of a player to get in a trade because he has a great arm. He almost sounds like he would make a good closer if he improves his control.
Major League Stats:
Record: 5-9
ERA: 5.55
OBA: .300
WHIP: 1.71
K/9: 5.59
K/BB: 1.14
Minor League Stats:
Record: 10-9
ERA: 3.12
OBA: .232
WHIP: 1.26
K/9: 8.53
K/BB: 2.69
One could say that his minor league numbers should translate to major league success. He’s still young and only has pitching parts of two major league seasons, albeit not very well.
Pelfrey is the opposite of Slowey. He throws gas, but can’t locate.
Will Gomez be ready to be an everyday major league CF in 2008?
Ive heard the Mets rushed him into the big leagues (due to injuries and such)
Gomez would be our best option… by a long shot.
you know la velle made an update why dont you guys move to that blog
I apologize for repeating myself, but..
Santana will not sign with the Twins for #140M (or more) because:
The Twins would be unable to extend Morneau, Cuddyer, Young and anyone else with value because all their money would be tied up in Johan.
Santana could not tolerate pitching every fifth day for a team that is weak/young/perpetually rebuilding/whatever.
He and his agent know this and he will sign with a big money team.
The Twins (and the A’s and Marlins)have won with young players before they reach free agency.
It can be done.
Considering that the Twins have now lost another quality pitcher…Carlos Silva…I would think it would seem imperative that the Twins got back a ready-for-the-Big-Leagues quality pitcher. I think that would make Phillip Hughes the most valuable piece in any of the trade discussions from the Twins standpoint, so far, in a deal for Santana…
how about gomez maine perez pelfrey martinez?
Back from yesterday! I wanted to get some insight about what the feeling was on whether the Mets could compete with the offers out so far. We already know what the Yanks/Sox are presenting. If I’m Bill Smith, I can’t accept anything less than Hughes+ from the Yankees, and Ellsbury from the Sox(to head a package). I think Lester is too much of a risk. I would much rather have Bucholtz, or at least Bucholtz/Lester in a deal. Johan Santana is a premier pitcher, you could compare him to Pedro is his prime. Can’t just trade him for peanuts. We know the Sox don’t NEED Santana, and the Yanks are probably just in it to keep the Sox from picking him up. Considering the Twins want him out of the AL if possible, the Mets are the next most oft-mentioned team (the Mariners are after Bedard, and the Angels need a bat. The Dodgers just signed Kuroda). After some decent research, let’s look at some potential trade options, and see which one makes the most sense, since I don’t see the Sox/Yanks budging too much.
Bearing in mind some key points, in that even though the Mets need him the most, they are not going to trade their star shortstop(Reyes) or one of their 2 young pitchers(Maine/Perez), because it creates too much of a hole for them. Just like the Yanks/Sox, I don’t think the Mets will create a hole to fill one. From what I have read, anyone beyond that is reasonable, it’s just getting the right combination.
I think any package needs to include Aaron Heilman. The fact that Joe Nathan’s name has been mentioned as trade bait means we need a solid reliever, who could potentially close. I think Heilman fits that.
Obviously, some combination of Carlos Gomez and/or Fernando Martinez needs to be the head of said package. From what I know of the rankings in the Mets system, getting both is equal to about Ellsbury/Lester in terms of potential, so I wouldn’t be disappointed by only a 4 player package if both were included. That said, I don’t see Omar Minaya wanting to include both, unless it came down to being a deal breaker, and he wasn’t throwing in 4+ prospects along with them.
I also think their young reliever, Joe Smith, would be a nice addition. He already has a half year of MLB experience and a sidewinder, and could definitely be a help in the future, rather than trying to pay overpriced established middle relief. So right there, you have 3 decent, though not star studded MLB ready players to head a package.
2b is a position that is mentioned often as a need for improvement, so how about either Anderson Hernandez(also MLB experience, but all glove), or Ruben Gotay? I don’t have a lot of stats on Gotay, but he was decent spelling Jose Valentin last year for them, until the Mets got Castillo. From what I read of last year’s trading deadline, Mets fans were pretty split over getting Castillo vs. having Gotay start the rest of the way.
Obviously pitching is the last portion of the trade, and if the Mets are going to get the best pitcher in baseball, we should have someone to slot in the rotation behind Baker and Liriano. I’m not that high on their two prospects, Pelfrey and Humber. They both seem like they were rushed, and Humber is coming off of Tommy John. I would like Kevin Mulvey, though. He seems to be their go-to guy as the most MLB ready and highest ceiling. I think he has to be in any offer as well.
It doesn’t seem like enough to me though. I think the Mets should be willing to put in a couple more lower level prospects that could help out in the future. Looking at their system, I see guys like Eddie Kunz, Mike Carp, Brett Harper(could be a DH type of player), and Jon Niese who could potenially be future help. At the very least, they are comparable to some of the prospects being offered by the Sox/Yankees.
So, in summary, here are the three packages I would consider as being comparable, if not more so, than the other offers given so far.
1. Gomez/Heilman/Smith/Gotay/Mulvey/Kunz (1 OF, 2 ML ready RP, 1 2B, and prospects)
2. Martinez/Heilman/Smith/Mulvey/Pelfrey (1 potential Superstar OF, 2 ML ready RP, 1 high ceiling pitching prospect, and a potential no. 4-5 starter)
I think these two packages are very close, if not equal, to what the A’s got for Dan Haren.
3. Gomez/Martinez/Heilman/any 1 of the aformentioned players.
compared to…
Red Sox-Lester/Crisp/Lowrie/Masterson or Ellsbury/Lowrie/Masterson/prospect
Yankees-Kennedy/Cabrera/prospect, or if they budge, Hughes/Cabrera/prospect.
What’s the vote, and do you think the three packages I came up with are on par with what we’re looking for as fans for a return on Johan Santana?
Sorry for the long post, but as you can see, I really love this freaking game!
