Thursday: Answering some questions
Posted on December 20th, 2007 – 10:44 AMBy La Velle
There’s a good chance I may be unable to post until late today (if at all), so I’ll tee up a few things for you now, based on some responses I’ve read here.
Who’s really interested in Santana?: The way it was laid out to me, there are several teams interested, but the Red Sox and Yankees remain the two main suitors. Other teams will indicate that they might get heavily involved but, as of this writing, have yet to make a strong offer. The Angels, Mariners and Mets all have shown some degree of interest in recent weeks. I hate to write it again, but everything can change with one phone call.
What’s the deal with the Mets? Do they really have a shot? I still hear that, unless the names Wright and Reyes enter the picture (and I doubt they will), the Mets have no shot. The word at the winter meetings was that the Mets kept their name involved for PR purposes. This is an indication that the Twins may not be that fond of some of the Mets prospects.
The Yankees are in…no they’re out….they may be really close to getting Santana…no, now Hank says they’re on the outside: Heh, Hank Steinbrenner has to be a reporter’s dream. I think it’s obvious that Steinbrenner and GM Brian Cashman are sparring over players to offer to the Twins, but you can never count them out because they need Santana more than the Red Sox do and they can pay Santana what he wants. Hank could pop off at any time and say, “Costanza, get in here! Look, this Santana guy is just what we need, JUST WHAT WE NEED! I want him, and I want YOU go to Minneapolis and get him!”
While we’re at it, why DO the Red Sox want Santana? We already have a good rotation…. This is not about the Red Sox keeping Santana away from the Yankees or making the Yankees drive up the price. I know a few Red Sox people. Boston trains in Fort Myers where the Twins are and I bump into their people all the time. I met GM Theo Epstein and assistant GM Jed Hoyer at the winter meetings when they were just wandering around the hotel with nothing to do. I’ve had no choice but to talk about, `The Nation.’ The Red Sox want to dominate. They want to build a dynasty in the AL East and keep the Yankees reeling for as many years as they can. A rotation of Josh Beckett, Santana, Dice-K and Schilling with Tim Wakefield and Clay Buchholz also in play helps them achieve their domination goals.
Are the Twins really serious about opening the season with Santana in the rotation? I, too, find that hard to believe. Most players who enter their walk year want to keep walking. While Santana’s camp hasn’t come out and said it, there are some rumbling that he won’t waive his no-trade clause during the regular season.
The Twins maintain that they aren’t afraid to open the season with Santana, and they may be willing to call his bluff at trade deadline. That’’s a big gamble. They should be looking to get the best deal possible now. If they can get four players in return for Santana, just look at what your getting with the top two players in that deal and hope player Nos. 3 and 4 will be equal to what you’d get in compensation picks. So as long as they are satisfied with the quality up top, they should pull the trigger.
Why can’t the Twins sign Santana? The Twins did offer a four-year, $80 million extension, which shows that, no matter who the pitcher is, they won’t sign someone for five, six, seven years. Many of those deals (Kevin Brown, Mike Hampton, Denny Neagle) end up being wasted money by the time the deal expires. You would think that Santana would be special case but, again, history warns against such a commitment. Just like with Torii Hunter and Carlos Silva, someone will pay Santana much more than the Twins.
If I were a fan, I would not let this organization off the hook because of that. The Twins could have signed a few players a year ago before salaries jumped forward again. Now that Joe Nathan has watched Mariano Rivera sign for $15 million a year at his advanced age, what do you think No. 36 is worth?
Not signing Santana a year ago, when he was asking them to, was a massive mistake. Now new GM Bill Smith is having sleepless nights trying to make a good Santana deal. Ownership needs to be proactive. It’s a $6 billion industry. Everyone is making money, right Carl?
What about Nathan? The Cubs? I still expect the Twins to look to trade Nathan once they move Santana. Just in case Santana does wind up with the Twins in April, you might as well keep the closer and see where the chips fall. If Nathan is put in play, I would expect several teams to jump at him. He’s too good and he’s inexpensive this season. I wrote last week that the Cubs would be interested if Nathan is put on the market. A radio station in Chicago mentioned Carlos Marmol as possible trade bait, someone here immediately threw Felix Pie into the deal. This has been advanced farther it should be. Nathan wasn’t on the trade block, last time I checked.
Ben Revere? Someone threw out this name too. First of all, I believe Revere hasn’t been in the organization long enough to be dealt. Secondly, he’s good. You want to keep Revere. He’s very fast, they think he’ll hit and he may be able to drop a few over the fence. Denard Span is still a good prospect, but there are people in the organization who feel Revere has more upside. Too bad he’ll need several more years before he’s ready.
So….what’s your gut feeling: I still think he’ll end up with the Red Sox, and I don’t mind either package. I will say this: Some Twins people like Coco Crip and feel he can get back to his game if gets out of Boston. I think that’s possible, but Ellsbury could be very good. He had a .389 OBP throughout his minor league career and the Twins have watched him develop while facing their teams in the Gulf Coast League, Eastern League and Internatonal League. They know what they’re getting.
The Yankees have no shot if Hughes (a super stud of a prospect) isn’t in the deal.
Before I’d say yes to Theo, I would call the Angels and Dodgers one last time….
246 Responses to "Thursday: Answering some questions"
thanks for the update lavelle
LEN3…next time the Stribs toilet backs up, let maintenance handle it….or do they have you doing double duty?
Thanks for addressing this stuff head-on. As opening day draws nearer, is there a point at which the Yankees say “Let’s wait until October. We can sign Santana as a free agent for about 5 million more a year than now but we won’t have to give anyone up?
If Smith doesn’t get a deal of at least the quality of Cabrera and Hughes, he comes off as a total buffoon. And make no mistake, even Lester and Ellsbury are inferior to Cabrera and Hughes. Ellsbury is better than Cabrera, but Hughes is FAR, FAR better than Lester.
Just to bring it over to this one.
Pelfrey was a big time prospect for the mets that they drafted out of Wichita St. in 2005 and gave him a big signing bonus. He progressed very quickly through the minors but had a less than inspiring debut in the majors. This reduced his prospect status from potential #1 starter to more middle of the rotation. There are still many people that think that Pelfrey will be a very good pitcher and that 2007 was just growing pains that so many young pitchers experience. He’s 23, 6? 7? and throws very hard. He’s pretty much a two pitch pitcher (Fastball, changeup) and has to work on developing his slider. He wouldn’t be that bad of a player to get in a trade because he has a great arm. He almost sounds like he would make a good closer if he improves his control.
Major League Stats:
Record: 5-9
ERA: 5.55
OBA: .300
WHIP: 1.71
K/9: 5.59
K/BB: 1.14
Minor League Stats:
Record: 10-9
ERA: 3.12
OBA: .232
WHIP: 1.26
K/9: 8.53
K/BB: 2.69
One could say that his minor league numbers should translate to major league success. He’s still young and only has pitching parts of two major league seasons, albeit not very well.
Hughes is the best prospect and best player being offered to us in the Johan trade talks.
I think we should center a package around him, the only other pitcher that comes even close to matching his current skillset or potential is Clay Bucholz, and from what I have read he hasnt been offered to us in any trades.
Denard Span is still a good prospect
Does the organization still view him that way?
Kevin H,
Its not just Lester/Ellsbury vs. Hughes/Cabrera. Its Lester/Ellsbury/(and another prospect or two) vs. Hughes/Cabrera
If I were a fan, I would not let this organization off the hook because of that. The Twins could have signed a few players a year ago before salaries jumped forward again. Now that Joe Nathan has watched Mariano Rivera sign for $15 million a year at his advanced age, what do you think No. 36 is worth?
Not signing Santana a year ago, when he was asking them to, was a massive mistake. Now new GM Bill Smith is having sleepless nights trying to make a good Santana deal. Ownership needs to be proactive. It’s a $6 billion industry. Everyone is making money, right Carl?
In other words, last year’s off season (and the one before that) was an unqualified disaster, the ramifications of which we’ll feel for some time. Perhaps ownership’s response was to nudge the former GM aside.
maybe with his buddy silva signing with seattle santana trade there could be ok. sounds like they have some quality to trade. the owner there will spend part of his fortune unlike our owner.
anyone know what they have to offer?
Hughes/Cabrera/Kennedy.
Do the twins accept that?
As Twins Fans I heard Redsox still reluctant to include Ellsbury in deal for Johan instead Coco stinkin Crisp. No deal if The Redsox don’t include Ellsbury/Buccholz. Walk away.
Well done LEN3. My gut feeling is that he is gone by Christmas. Things have been abnormally and ridiculously quiet the past few days. This is the calm before the storm.
Ellsbury, Lowrie, Masterson, and Bowden get it done.
Neither
Hughes/ Cabrera/Kennedy
nor Lester /Ellsbury plus two
have ever been offered.
Its fiction compared to fiction.
Gobble - Adam Jones is an MLB ready OF, and could play CF for us. He has batted over 300 in every minor league system he has played in. A SLG% between 450 and 550 in AA and AAA.
Brandon Morrow is regarded as an above average to great pitching prospect, although I dont know too much about him.
I dont know much about any other Seattle prospects, anyone else have any input on them?
I do know that Adam Jones is supposed to be something special, a stud. Depending on the other prospects Seattle has to offer, Id love to see him in a Twins uniform
Hughes/Cabrera/Kennedy.
Do the twins accept that?
Y E S
I know the Yanks havent offered us Hughes/Cabrera/Kennedy, but I think thats the trade the Twins should want and shold be trying to bully Hank into giving into.
Either that, or
Hughes/Kennedy
plus 2 of
Jackson, Tabata, Marquez, Sanchez, Horne
I like Hughes/Kennedy plus2. (no Cabrera)
Me too, you think Smith would be content to go into our season with the current CF situation?
Me too, you think Smith would be content to go into our season with the current CF situation?
N O
Content? I don’t think that’s exactly the right word. But I do think BS is okay with going into the season with either Pridie or Span (to a lesser degree) in center.
I heard repeatedly that the Sox won’t include Lester and Ellsbury in the same package. Are they “saving” that for a final offer? I think the Twins would accept Lester, Ellsbury and Lowrie (dream would be Lester, Ellsbury, Lowrie and Masterson). Heck, I think they might even take Ellsbury, Lowrie, Bowden and Masterson.
And any chance Yankees give in and include Kennedy with Hughes?
does anyone know how jones compares to ellsbury?
i guess i don’t like the sox or yankees getting him. rich get richer. seattle would not be as bad.
Mav
You are right about Jones he is basically a clone of a young Hunter with a higher BA. He has speed and power to go along with a great glove.
From what I have heard about Morrow he is pretty equal to Lester without the ML experience. If Seattle offered Jones, Morrow and one more mid level prospect I think the Twins should jump all over that.
gobble
Many people have said Jones is the best young CF out there. He doesn’t have much experience in the bigs but I think he is a better overall prospect than Ellsbury.
I think the problem with the Mariners is that Santana wants to go to a team on the East Coast. I think he just bought a house down in Florida where his family is living and he still visits Venezuela pretty frequently.
Agree Jama
Jones projects to be a number 3 hitter..
I think he will hit for better average than Hunter once he hits his prime, with similar power numbers than Torii put up the past 2-3 years.
Ellsbury projects to bat leadoff, so in a way, its like comparing apples and oranges…both could be great at their respective spots in the batting order.
JPT - as far as the chances of the Yanks giving in and offering Hughes/Kennedy/prospects…I dont know, but it kinda seems like thats precisely what the Twins are waiting for…given the Yanks/Hank’s track record (see Arod deal) it might not seem too far fetched.
i saw a report they offered jones, morrow and a catcher named clemens for bedard and got turned down. we don’t need the catcher so maybe jones marrow and a couple other good prospects wouldn’t be bad.
i really don’t want him playing for the sox or yanks. it’s turning into a 2 team league with a few stragglers. all espn talks about is the yanks-sox they’d be happy if they played 162 gms against each other and the hell with the rest of us.
Morrow has ML experience as a reliever.
60 Games
63 Innings
BAA: 243
WHIP: 1.67
W/L: 3-4
ERA: 4.12
K/9: 9.38
K/BB: 1.32
I hope they sign Johan long term. But if they feel they can’t do that, Boston to me is so far the leading canidate. Lester, Ellsbury, and Lowrie. Lefty who can enter the rotation, Cf’er and lead off to battle with Pridie, and a SS who projects as a everyday player with pop and solid D. Hughes has never thrown more than 146 IP per season and has had at least one stint on the DL each MILB season, and Cabrera, no thanks
Does Atlanta have the money to sign or trade for Santana.
Gobble - As weird as it sounds, the price for a team to trade for Bedard right now is actually higher than it is for Santana, cause the team that gets Bedard wont have to sign him to a 150M dollar contract right away..
Given Seattle offered Jones/Morrow/Clemens for Bedard, maybe all theyd offer for Santana is Jones/Morrow…or maybe Jones/Morrow/mid level prospect
Another thing to consider is whether or not Seattle really wants to pay Santana that much money while giving up their two best prospects…its different for them vs what it is for the Yanks and Boston, becasue Seattle isnt one of the incredibly-big spenders.
gobble if the Mariners offered that deal to the Twins I would be estatic. The Twins could then spin Clemens for another good prospect. (Maybe another pitcher or a young SS)
“Hughes/Cabrera/Kennedy.
Do the twins accept that?”
Abso-goddamn-lutely!!!!
santana and nathan for pie marmol and soriano
btw you know that we could have gotten soriano 2 years ago for garza but we didnt want to?
Jeff -
The Lester, Ellsbury, Lowrie deal hasnt been offered to us..yet
If it is, I agree I think we shold take it.
Lester/Ellsbury/Lowrie is what we shold be pushing for from the Bosox…while the packages we sholud be pushing for from the Yanks are ones with Hughes and Kennedy
If the BoSox wanted to do this deal, they would put Lester, Ellsbury and Lowrie on the table. But they haven’t. So we sit. And we wait.
If the M’s decide to go for Johan, I think he’d go there. I don’t buy this boloney that he has to pitch on the big stage. He wants his money and he wants to play for a team that can win. Wherever that may be.
Hawk
The Braves don’t have the money to trade for Santana. They are probably not even going to be able to sign Texiera. Plus they just traded away a couple of their top prospects for Texiera so I don’t think they are a viable trade option.
soriano could play center for us 
and lead off while marmol is our next closer and pie sits around eating pie all day
yes boogie monster thats a good deal.. but i want someone whos last name is cookie not pie. 
I like Elsbury more than I used to. He is a bona fide leadoff hitter and plays good d. Jones is good and is a probably a better player. I just think it’s harder for the Mariners to offer up their top prospects. They are more important to them than the Yankees or Red Sox.
boogy monster
The reason the Twins didn’t trade for Soriano was because he was going to be a free agent at the end of the year and the Twins wouldn’t have had the money to sign him. It wasn’t that the Twins didn’t want him it was that they didn’t feel giving up Garza plus more prospects for half a season of Soriano was a good idea. I think they did the right thing.
hey guys do you know that joba is ambidexstrous? theres a photo on the yankees website.. he signs a card for someone with his LEFT hand!!!
jama,
your right about soriano. we would have never been able to keep him for more then a half year. for garza and prospects i would rather get 5 years of young (delmon)
If Seattle offers us the Jones/Morrow/prospect package for Johan, I say we take it
with silva in seattle i think he’d go there and think how many more so’s he’d have facing hunter 20 times a yr. easy division only angels for competition and the owner has plenty of money.
ya maybe not soriano BUT DO WHATEVER IT TAKES TO GET PIE!!!!!!!!!!!
PIE PIE PIE PIE EVEN IF WE HAVE TO TRADE THE TWiNS FARM FOR PIE I JUST WANT MORE PEOPLE WHOS NAME IS PIE PIE PIE PIE PIE PIEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
the problem with pie is buffet would probably eat him.
oh come on!!!!!!! does the buffet have to eat everything???????
It looks like he does.
CBS is trying to get the Boofer on next year’s Biggest Loser show. Jillian would really make him pay!!!
hawk,
he cant though cause its a biggest loser couples show this time.. last time i checked hes not married
TV might be where it’s at for 2008:
Bill Smith inks a deal with Trump to be on The Apprentice.
Gardy inks a deal with Survivor.
Boof is my great hope for next year. I’m banking on him not liking being called a fatso and coming back to prove something. He stepped up after being told he sucked and being sent down in 2006. Love his curveball.
how about gomez maine perez pelfrey martinez?
Geez, lion. The Mets won’t have a starting rotation after that. Johan’s not gonna go pitch with Pedro and El Duque and no one else. He’s a great pitcher - but 350 innings he cannot pitch.
lion
That seems like a lot of players.
What the hell did you trade Jay Buhner for?! He had 30 home runs, over 100 RBIs last year! He’s got a rocket for an arm… You don’t know what the hell you’re doing!
Lion -
I think Gomez Martinez Pelfrey Guerra Heilman for Johan and Span is a reasonable trade for both the Mets and the Twins
The Mets have been reluctant to give up both Gomez and Martinez, but if they arent willing to part with Reyes or Wright, then they will have to.
It doesnt make any sense for them to include Maine or Perez (it would just open another hole in their rotation)…So i think this would be the best offer for the Twins from them.
Gomez will play CF.
FMartinez is the probably the best prospect of this bunch, and could be MLB ready to play RF or LF once Cuddyer becomes to rich for us in 2 years.
Pelfrey is an MLB ready SP who the Twins could insert into their roation
Heilman adds depth to the bullpen, and gives us leeway regarding the trading of Joe Nathan
Guerra gives us a potential ace (albeit he is 2 years away from the MLB)
The trade makes sense for the Mets because they would get Johan to be their ace
They would retain Humber and Mulvey to help lock down their AAA/5th rotation spot, and are MLB ready to take over if any of their pitchers get injured
Span gives them an outfield player/prospect to take over if the injuries cripple them again this year in the OF.
Do other Twins fans like this trade idea?
Mav: If you put Gomez and F-Mart in the package, I’m interested. If Omar bends on that, something might be possible. I don’t know how he can though with Milledge gone to the Nats. Honestly, it looks like they are worse off than us in position prospects.
I really like Heilmann. He could start. He could be a set-up man. He could be a closer. He’s a smart kid and I don’t think the Mets really value or use him appropriately.
My baseball people loved Ken Phelps’ bat. They kept saying “Ken Phelps, Ken Phelps.”
Leave out Span and Pelfrey and the Mets would like it better.
maybe santana will pitch every 1/4 games
supposedly the mets have made an offer to lohse. lets see lohse-santana?
have any of these gm’s watched him pitch?
Sane -
Johan for Gomez FMartinez Guerra and Heilman?
If thats the case, I think we should maybe switch Guerra for Pelfrey…we need a MLB ready young pitcher to put into our rotation once Johan leaves.
this is the news with the mets and pitching…
Buster Olney heard that the Mets could acquire starter Joe Blanton from the A’s if they’d agree to surrender Carlos Gomez, Aaron Heilman, and Kevin Mulvey. I wonder if Oakland would try Heilman in the rotation.
from mlbtraderumors.com
now if thats what they may give to the a’s then add 2-3 more people or add reyes considering blanton is only a #3 pitcher…
lion:
I wouldn’t consider Joba ambidexterous just because he can write with his left and throw with his right.
Both Mauer and Morneau throw righty but hit lefty. That’s closer to ambidexterous, but still not quite the same as somebody who can do the same thing with either hand.
I should add I appear to be in the same boat as Joba. I write with the left, but I do everything else with my right.
I barely consider myself left-handed let alone ambidexterous.
GET PIE GET PIE GET PIE WHATEVER IT TAKES JUST GET PIE EVEN IF WE GIVE UP SANTANA FOR PIE PIE PIE PIE PIE PIEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!
When I was in college about 5 or 6 years back I was a waiter at a Macaroni Grill and I waited on Santana twice. This was before he was a stud.
Guys, I live in Seattle and I watch every M’s game that doesn’t conflict with a Twins game. They have some very solid prospects. Before I talk about them, the word here is that now that the M’s have signed Silva they wouldn’t be able to afford Santana so it’s all kind of moot. Regardless:
Adam Jones is the real deal. A true five tool player. He’s got a great glove and an excellent arm. He’s got blazing speed and will be a great #3 hitter once he develops a little more plate discipline. He’ll hit for power and average. I would hate to see him traded to Baltimore but love to see him traded to the Twins.
Brandon Morrow was drafted in 2006 ahead of Andrew Miller and Tim Lincecum. He flew through their system and threw out of the pen last year. If he’s still on the M’s in 08 he’ll almost definitely crack their rotation. A live fastball that tops out around 96-98. He throws a good split and a solid bender. He attacks the strike zone and comes right at hitters. Once he learns to mix his pitches better and builds up his stamina he’ll be a top of the line pitcher.
Matt Clement is the their top prospect now that Jones and Morrow are Major Leaguers,. He could be an elite catcher. He plays ok defense but his bat will make up for it. He set the national highschool record with 75 HR in his senior season. He won’t just hit for power though. He’ll have a very good OBP and knows how to be patient at the plate. He could be one of the best.
Wlademir Balentin is a corner OF who could mash 40-50 HR. Solid defender with a lot of power.
Carlos Triunfel is their top infield prospect at SS.
Phillipe Aumont is a RHP and could be a #2 or #3.
In short, they could put together a very appealing package.
Who gives a _ _ _ _ Robert
Patrick -
So the odds the Ms trade for Santana have gone down since the silva signing?
Down from maybe 5% to 2%? haha..
Sounds like someone needs to get laid *cough*Matt*cough*
are the mets nuts?
maybe lohse? i thought the mets were trying to win not save money.
blanton 27, 42-34 .553 w pct. 4.10 era and .58 so per inn.
santana 28, 93-44 .679 w pct. 3.22 era and 1.05 so per inn.
of course in a couple yrs with silva getting 11 yr blanton will be worth 15-16.
Did you get laid by santana Mr Macaroni who “Served santana once” that would make the fake boring story a little more interesting
Easy Matt, big internet tough guy huh?
O yea
Whoa, Matt. Big Silva fan or something? Really pissed that the Twins let him slip through their fingers? “Argh!! Silva signed with the Mariners!!! I’m so angry I’m going to yell at people on the Strib blog to relieve anger and stress!!! CARLOOOOS!!!!!”
Maver1ck-
haha, yeah essentially. 2% might be being optimistic.
Why do the sports writers at the Tribune keep telling us the the Twins management made a “mistake” when they didn’t sign Santana, Hunter, Silva, Nathan, etc. to contract extensions? THEY KNEW WHAT THEY WERE DOING. They didn’t want to. 30 million less in payroll leads to 25 million more in Carl’s pockets(I’m assuming twins fans might get sick of watching next season). That was the plan all along. They don’t need a stadium approval anymore therefore they don’t need to be competitive. Don’t you think it’s outrageous that the Twins are rewarding the people of Minnesota with what’s looking to be the lowest payroll in the AL central? Wasn’t it all about “being competitive”? The Twins aren’t even competing with Kansas City.
The mistakes were “not trading” rather than “not signing”.
To get nothing in return for those players was the crime.
A. Your assuming propects always pay off - They don’t.
B. The Twins have enough money!!!!! Carl just had the value of his franchise increase by $ 100,000,000.00 dollars. He’s doing ok.
how about this…
santana and nathan for
gomez martinez reyes maine pelfrey?
maybe throw in span or punto or rincon
Liondragon loves crazy trade proposals.
hey atleast its a thought
What about Sao Taguchi?
or….. how about
santana for hughes kennnedy jackson and horne?
I think Taguchi is better than Span or Pirdie if we can’t get Ellsbury.
Coming_Former_fan
I am only assuming that getting NOTHING back NEVER pays off.
lets trade santana to the expos and see what they give us… we could get another grady sizemore
no more talking? do we need another update?
If 1 out of 3 prospects payoff, then trade your unsignable players for three prospects.
You may get Nathan, Liriano and Bonser for AJ Pierzinski occasionally.
lets ask the smilies if this is a good trade ok be ready to judge….. btw 10 smiles are voting sad means no happy means yes… ok…
santana for hughes kennedy jackson horne
votes are…:) :) :) :) 7/10 say good 3 say bad the 3 are yankee fans that say we dont wanna give up hughes……
ok now nathan for pie and marmol
votes are..:( :( :) half and half… the ones that said no said that thats too much for one year of nathan while the other 5 said that the cubs will extend nathan so thats about the right amount for nathan…
sorry re make that post 2 smiles didnt work it should now
lets ask the smilies if this is a good trade ok be ready to judge….. btw 10 smiles are voting sad means no happy means yes… ok…
santana for hughes kennedy jackson horne
votes are… :) :) :) 7/10 say good 3 say bad the 3 are yankee fans that say we dont wanna give up hughes……
ok now nathan for pie and marmol
votes are.. :( :) half and half… the ones that said no said that thats too much for one year of nathan while the other 5 said that the cubs will extend nathan so thats about the right amount for nathan…
can i get a thought?
or does no one talk anymore?
“Matt Clement is the their top prospect now that Jones and Morrow are Major Leaguers,. He could be an elite catcher. He plays ok defense but his bat will make up for it. He set the national highschool record with 75 HR in his senior season.”
Matt Clement hit 75 home runs in his Highschool career not in one season. The Twins drafted Clement but he went to USC. Clement is viewed by most baseball analysts as a DH not as a catcher. With that said I would love Morrow, Jones and Clement for Santana.
I am bored with Mets speculation. I do not think they have a chance to land Santana.
I am kinda bored with the whole thing.
Hey CFf…The increase in value of the Twin’s franchise still isn’t enough for Carl’s children’s children’s children to feed themselves and their families!! To those of you who write about Span or Pridie taking over in CF for the Twins this upcoming season, if they aren’t able to trade for Ellsbury, Crisp, Jones, et.al., stop writing that immediately. You’re complete, uninformed idiots who haven’t been paying attention to what Gardy reiterated recently and has repeatedly said in the past…Those guys are not ML ready yet! In addition, regarding the Hughes/Kennedy comparison, did anyone other than me see “Shooter’s” column in the PP, recapping his interview w/former Gopher and current ML reliever Jim Brower? FYI Brower, in his opinion, sez that Ian Kennedy has more tools/potential than Phil Hughes! You’re welcome!
I never waited on Santana at any restaurant but I heard that song “Cool” with him and Rob Thomas about a thousand times before he won any Cy Youngs.
i think the silva siging actually improves the chances for seatlle, they ponied up for his friend, and would pay for santana. he was after all in silvas wedding.
do the twins get a sandwich pick for silva i think he was a b typ free agent
THANK YOU LENIII for your statement that we shouldn’t let the Twins organization off the hook for their decisions to not sign Santana and others.
This will always be the basis for my thinking as I watch the Twins struggle this coming season.
Twins will get no compensation for Silva.
The centerpiece of any Johan trade has to be a stud position player and then a potential middle of the rotation starter.To many potential pitching prospects included in the mix.We are top-heavy with our own pitching prospects.We need position players at all levels.Any Johan trade other than the evil two(Yanks and Bosox) would help us in the long run.
we get nothing for silva? how sad.. not even a type b free agent and he gets 11 mil a year.. this is how curropt our world is these days
Ok not just another paul, whose playing CF? You say Ellsbury. Can you tell me the difference between Pridie and Ellsbury?
Yes. For some reason Silva wasn’t a type B, but Luis Viscaino was. No compensation for Chief. Also, Jim Brower is not an expert on evaluating prospects. He saw them both pitch for a season. He gave basically the same opinion that most scouting reports give and that is that Kennedy is very polished with less upside. So right now, he might come across as better. But with lack of killer stuff, he isn’t going to become a top pitcher. Hughes has the killer stuff, therefor has more growth potential.
romer,
LEN3 is correct that the Twins shouldn’t be let off the hook for screwing up Hunter, Nathan, Santana, etc…
But Smith shouldn’t be crucified for dealing Santana when he’s doing everything in his power to maximize the return (it’s damage control, but it’s better than just letting him walk).
These were TR’s screwups, not BS’s. Give BS a chance to try and make a few corrections while there’s still time (it was too late for Hunter)
Theo has all the cards and is willing to call BS’s bluff. The best deal the BoSox will offer is Crisp, Lowie, Lester and Masterson. That’s a starting CF, SS/2B, (L) SP and a future closer. The Twins better take that offer before Crisp is traded elsewhere for 7th/8th reliever. Cashman doesn’t want to gut the talent he has been stocking up on, but the BoSox have more prospect to deal with. Worst case for you twinkies, the BoSox do nothing and get Big Papa’s buddy for a draft pick at the end of next year.
LD:
There’s not much talking because there’s really nothing left to talk about that hasn’t been said a million times.
Just you wait. Once Santana is dealt, signed, or an otherwise final decision is annouced, there will be plenty to talk about for DAYS.
But don’t beg for an update just because you’ve run out of things to say. A new update’s not going to have anything TO update.
And posting a bunch of smilies doesn’t help anything. At all.
Keith Law on Brandon Morrow:
He’s a one-pitch guy right now - plus-plus velocity but poor command and no second pitch. That’s a great prospect if he’s sitting in A-ball, starting every fifth day, working on his offspeed pitches. They had no business putting him in the majors this year.
Boston Tom,
If Crisp is traded elsewhere the deal is still alive with another prospect substituted for Crisp.
Then we trade for (or sign a free agent) CF.
i liked that voting system though
voting system for trading santana…
santana for reyes gomez
is it good for the mets?
heres the votes….. :) :) :) :) 9/10 9 said that its a steal while the one who said bad deal is omar minyiya
patrick-Thanks for the great post about the potential Seattle package.Jones good fill cf now.Morrow could a middle of rotation starter in 09,Clemen could replace dawg in 09 when his contract is up.I think Mauer will have to change positions(maybe3b) eventually.With Silva in the fold,Johan might want to join his buddy Silva.I hope they would have enough money to do both guys.With both King Felix and Johan at the top of their rotation,that might force the Angels to get into the mix
The Boston Fans love Elsbury… a younger, cost controlled version of Caveman Johnny Damon (not going anywhere). BoSox Mngt love Bucholz as a potential Ace (not going anywhere). The Twins are not taking a BoSox package consisting of Lester(#3 LH Starter), Lowie(2B/SS ML ready prospect), and minor talent. Crisp was worth a top 5 ML prospect three years back(need a little help with the name 3B from ATL for Renteria to CLE for Crisp) and he will only get better offensively and is already a gold glover.
The Twins shouldn’t feel that they are settling for low quality in Crisp. He is A+ defender and has proven potential to be a 300ba/20hr/40sb leadoff hitter. Not bad compensation when added to a #3 starter, 2B upgrade and closer prospect.
I wish something new would happen. All of this speculation with little or no substance. Here’s more. I wonder if the Reds would interested. We know they are in on Bedard.
Correction a #3 starter behind Beckett and Santana. He could be a Twinkie #1/2 and although Crisp didn’t win the ‘07 GG, he should have in Fenway and would in the MetroDoom.
crisp has never hit 20 homers as i recall and he is in his prime… ihe hit 6 homers last year and 25 stolen bases… with a .260 batting adverage.. hes not that amazing
You are putting Lester ahead of Dice-K?
You need to ask for a refund on Dice-K.
Boston Tom,
Lets not get carried away with the greatness that is Coco Crisp. He is a serviceable CF with a great glove and decent speed. I would take him in a package with Buchholz and Lowrie. Otherwise it has to be Ellsbury, Lester, and Lowrie. Obviously the Twins feel the same way or this deal would have been done two weeks ago.
“The Boston Fans love Elsbury… a younger, cost controlled version of Caveman Johnny Damon (not going anywhere). BoSox Mngt love Bucholz as a potential Ace (not going anywhere). The Twins are not taking a BoSox package consisting of Lester(#3 LH Starter), Lowie(2B/SS ML ready prospect), and minor talent. Crisp was worth a top 5 ML prospect three years back(need a little help with the name 3B from ATL for Renteria to CLE for Crisp) and he will only get better offensively and is already a gold glover.
The Twins shouldn’t feel that they are settling for low quality in Crisp. He is A+ defender and has proven potential to be a 300ba/20hr/40sb leadoff hitter. Not bad compensation when added to a #3 starter, 2B upgrade and closer prospect. ”
Are you drunk?
Don’t try to pawn the idea of Crisp patrolling CF for this squad. The guy is NOT going to get better offensively. If ANYTHING, he’s peaked offensively.
Damn arrogant Boston and New York fans 
Thank You Zach…
Crisp topped out at .297-.300 BA, 15-16 HR and 28 SB, while in Cleveland 2004-2005.
Those are still good numbers when combined with exceptional defense.
I just find it funny that all these teams seem to have forgotten how incredibly great Santana is. The way I look at it, trading for him is a bonus not a hindrance. You know that when he is FA, both of these teams are going to be competing to sign him. While if you trade for him guess what? You have exclusive negotiating rights with him and you don’t have to compete with anyone. Just give us Lester, Ellsbury, Lowrie and be done with this stuff. Both clubs can move on to the future happy. Boston still gets to keep the best prospect out of the three (Buchholz) and be able to pair him with the two best pitchers in the game.
Well, I think the general mentality in Red Sox and Yankees Nations, respectively, is that THEY (they being their front office) will dicate the terms upon which they will receive Santana, and those representing little, “small-market” Minnesota will take whatever they decide to give us…
God, I sound like I’m 11 years old…sheesh.
Nevertheless, the recent invasion by Mets, Yankees, and BoSox apologists has become slightly agitating.
Todd,
You’re underselling Lester. He’s good. #LH Starter makes him sound average. He’s going to be better than that.
Can somebody explain singing the left side of the infield of a horrible Astros team? While Everett is one of the best defensive shortstops, he can’t hit. Guess what, Punto is a great shortstop and had more web gems than anyone last year, but guess what he can’t hit either! It seems like we signed the same exact player for more money when you are already overpaying Punto. I like the Lamb signing as a part-time bench player with a good bat, but if he is starting that is not much of an upgrade.
Dic-K and Lester are comparable as #3s. A major reason why the BoSox paid the posting fee for Dice-K was for marketing to a new demographic. The BoSox will see the posting fee $$$ returned in Yen. The real salary was $6M per year and, sad to say, that’s a bargin for a #3.
To a large extent, championships are won with mngt (props to MIN) and not solely $$$. If that were the case, Tom Yawkey would have won many championships. Theo et al are changing the way BoSox field a team. After two championships… I think he is on to something.
Lester is not an ace or a number 2. He could be a good #3 on a playoff contender or a #4 guy on a team like the BoSox or Yanks. He is not some sort of Santana, Liriano type pitcher. He is probably a little better than Baker.
Crisp was a very good CF-hitter-baserunner while in Cleveland.
Tell me you want better (Ellsbury), but if you say Crisp is (or was) terrible, I’m not buying it.
Boston Tom,
You need to tell us right now if you really think that Santana isn’t worth ELlsbury/Lester/Lowrie. Maybe the Red Sox don’t need him bad enough to offer that deal, but don’t you argee that as players that deal is fair for both clubs. We are not trying to fleece anybody, but you need to at LEAST get equal value for the best pitcher in baseball. In years past we would have gotten a steal from other clubs, but now other teams realize how smart the Twins and Athletics are at doing these type deals.
Zach,
Punto is not close to Everett in terms of fielding at SS. Punto is a good fielder, but he does his best work at 2b or 3b. Everett on the other hand is the best fielding SS in baseball. He might be the only player in the game who’s defense can actually make up for his terrible offense. Also, what’s your problem with Lamb. We only signed him for 2 years and Buescher’s not good. I don’t see anything wrong with these two moves. We had no better options, unless we trade Santana and/or Nathan.
You can’t get equal player value for Santana when he has a $140 million anchor attached to him.
Great update, and one question.
Does this happen before Christmas? I know from the week of Christmas until the New Year, the MLB Office is closed.
I’d think the Twins would like to get it done with.
We would’ve gotten a sandwich pick for Silva, but he ate it on his way to Seattle. After he ate the sandwich pick, he got another belly ache.
Sane, your name says it all…..the Twins don’t have as much leverage in these negotiations as everyone wants to think. Everyone knows he’ll be available after next year if they just wait. The Red Sox in particular have no problem going into this year without him, then pay the same amount to sign him after next year.
Another thing, it’s all about demand, if no one is offering a package much better than a deal with Lester or Ellsbury, why should they “do us a favor” and put them together?
World Series ball eaten by Papelbon’s dog
All I wanted was for the Twins to get Ellsbury/Lester/Lowrie for Santana. Deal Nathan for good prospects that you could pair with your own and deal for say Beltre or Crede. Sign T. Clark with the promise of some DH at bats. Sign J. Affeldt for another power LH arm in the pen. Let it ride with the young staff because we have six talented young arms. Then re-sign Morneau for 6 and Cuddyer for 3. Does that sound like such a hard thing to get done? No one could accuse the Twins of having a firesale because they would be competative now and set up well for the future.
You lose
J.Santana
T. Hunter
J. Nathan
C. Silva
J. Bartlett
You gain
D. Young
J. Ellsbury
A. Beltre
J. Lester
J. Lowrie
B. Harris
T. Clark
J. Affeldt
You lose three all-stars, but you get more and younger in return. The TEAM is actually better and you got two young potential all-stars in the off-season. Lets get to it Billy because Adam Everett and Mike Lamb is not going to suffice.
Tedge, I’m with you, how the hell can you say that Lamb isn’t an upgrade over what we’ve been throwing out there at 3B the last few years?
A few Mets notes:
First off, after Pelfrey and Hughes’ first seasons as professionals, B.A. had a chat and said that they’d take Pelfrey over Hughes. And Pelfrey would be better. That changed because Pelfrey was pushed too fast, while Hughes got to stay in the minors. I’m not sure why everyone thinks Hughes is so great. He was a very average pitcher in the Bigs. He had one great game (then he was hurt). Pelfrey had a nearly as dominant game vs. Atlanta in a crucial game.Pelfrey lost value because he didn’t dominate. That is the Mets fault. The kid will still be very good.
Adam Jones’ scouting reports are nearly identical to those of Lastings Milledge at the same point in time.
Fernando Martinez has a higher Ceiling than Jacoby Ellsbury (according to the “Stark report”. I guess the Twins need a guy who can play right away, though.
I personally would think that a package built around Pelfrey, Martinez, Heilman, and Milledge would have EASILY gotten Santana last offseason. But because of some bad decisions by the Mets brass, the prospects lost value because they were moved up too quickly. Which could benefit the Mets in the long run in Pelfrey and the crew live up to original expectations.
Probably not going to be the same amount to sign Johan next offseason. Word is Silva’s deal went to $48MM. The price of a pitcher is going up about 10% a day. Unbelievable.
I always wondered why Boston is considered a big market team. Is Boston that much bigger (media market) than MIN, BAL, DET… NO, Boston is a baseball town that is impassioned with their team. The tickets are the most expense, parking is crazy, and the park is always sold out. Can MIN, BAL, DET… say that? When the team is going well “small market” team go to the game. When the team isn’t on top… where are you?
Rather than crying about the big bad Red Sox, do a better job of supporting your team.
GO RED SOX, PATRIOTS, CELTS, REVELUTION,…. oh yeah Bruins.
PS… It’s RED SOX NATION AND THE EVIL EMPIRE (NYY).
PSS… Tom Brady appreciates you running NFL’s best WR out of town.
TwinsTerritory,
I really think the Twins would be fine with this going into January……the fans (me included) would prefer to have it done before.
All i hear is undervalue/overvalue. You talk of Ellsbury like he’s a proven stud, I don’t buy it. He’s a nice looking prospect but will need to find his way in MLB. No power, good speed, below average arm, good eye to potentialy lead off. For JOHAN SANTANA, he of a 1300 MLB innings with career era 3.22, whip 1.09, K’s per 9/9.34. Josh Beckett is a very solid #1 starter. He’s not JOHAN. Lester, Ellsbury, and Lowrie from Boston is simply robbery from Bostons standpoint. Please BS, resign Johan, Please.
KB,
I agree.
The best we can do is hold our water until March-April and then take the best offer out there.
The worst we can do is hold on until the season starts, then lose him next winter for two crummy draft picks.
I dont get why the Twins would ever accept the two deals on the table from Boston right now.
Boston has two CF trading peices: Crisp and Ellsbury
We can reach a consensus that we would prefer to have Ellsbury in the deal over Crisp
Boston has two great SP prospects: Lester and Bucholz
Its clear Bucholz is better, has more potential, and will most likely be the better MLB player.
Why would the Twins settle for their second best player at both positions?
Either Bucholz/Crisp/Lowrie or Lester/ Ellsbury/Lowrie.
Giving up the best pitcher in baseball should mean that we should your top prospect at his respective position.
Think about this for just one moment, the BoSox gave up $51 million just to talk to DiceK. Now they and everyone else in the Baseball world are dicking around saying, “oh we don’t want to give up young talent to get Santana.”
Last time I looked DiceK is at best a #3 starter in the ML and Santana is the best pitcher in the world.
Zach stated that the team that trades for him will have NO competion for signing him.
So with that said the teams that are involved with this have to realize what the hell is going on. If they wait for Santana to be a FA… Santana will get $30 million a year just watch…
The BoSox give $51 million to talk to DiceK but won’t pony up to give the twins the prospects to get Santana and give him a 6 year $140 million contract or they could wait (like the Boston Fan said earlier) and give him a 6 year $180+ contract next year. (I think it would be more like 7/$200+ after he wins another Cy Young)
Oh and by the way you get him now, and not a year from now, when he will be a bit older.
Just a side note: I would be a better option in CF then old Crispy.
Zach,
If the $$$ were the same Santana for Lester, Bucholz, Elsbury… sure. Throw in 7yrs @ 23MM. Lester, Bucholz and Elsbury won’t make 3MM over the next 3years combines. Your talking apples and oranges. Cost controlled prospects vs $$$ talent… that’s apples and apples.
I think I can speak for Theo, the offer is Lester, Lowie, Crips, and Masterson for Satana and his 7yr @ $23M contract. Get back to me when no one else offers a comparable deal.
No problem with Mike Lamb, just not as a starter. The Twins are notorious at using the following logic. They look at a player put up good numbers in say 300 ABs (maybe .290 12 45) and then they look at that and project that if he got starter ABs he would be very productive. While most of the time that is not the case and there is a reason that the guy never got started type Abs. Either he isn’t consistent enough, or he gets injured often, or maybe his defense is so bad that he isn’t worth having on the field for 550 ABs. They need to stop using this logic on these part time player. Lamb is a very productive and good part-time player. He is not a starter. Although I will give you that in this circumstance that he probably the best we can do barring a trade. But, I would rather see us trade for Beltre, Crede, or say C. Tracy. There is no way we are going to get Atkins and Blalock is a FA after this year and would be a rental. I like Beltre because we could get him for about what we can receive for Nathan and he is signed for the next two years at an affordable $12.8 mil. We definitley have the payroll after we trade Santana and he would be a productive right handed hitter to through into a suddenly imposing lineup that includes 1-5 Ellsbury, Mauer, Young, Morneau, Cuddyer. In worst case we could get Tracy for a decent pitching prospect and he signed for another two years at a very reasonable price. He is a very solid third baseman and would be the best we have had since Koskie was in his prime from 2000 to 2002.
here’s an interesting take on the silva signing and the money. it could be said that santana for 20m a yr will seem cheap for the best pitcher in baseball, of course the key is staying healthy.
http://blog.seattletimes.nwsource.com/mariners/2007/12/silva_press_conference_at_4_pm.html#more
Back from yesterday! I wanted to get some insight about what the feeling was on whether the Mets could compete with the offers out so far. We already know what the Yanks/Sox are presenting. If I’m Bill Smith, I can’t accept anything less than Hughes+ from the Yankees, and Ellsbury from the Sox(to head a package). I think Lester is too much of a risk. I would much rather have Bucholtz, or at least Bucholtz/Lester in a deal. Johan Santana is a premier pitcher, you could compare him to Pedro is his prime. Can’t just trade him for peanuts. We know the Sox don’t NEED Santana, and the Yanks are probably just in it to keep the Sox from picking him up. Considering the Twins want him out of the AL if possible, the Mets are the next most oft-mentioned team (the Mariners are after Bedard, and the Angels need a bat. The Dodgers just signed Kuroda). After some decent research, let’s look at some potential trade options, and see which one makes the most sense, since I don’t see the Sox/Yanks budging too much.
Bearing in mind some key points, in that even though the Mets need him the most, they are not going to trade their star shortstop(Reyes) or one of their 2 young pitchers(Maine/Perez), because it creates too much of a hole for them. Just like the Yanks/Sox, I don’t think the Mets will create a hole to fill one. From what I have read, anyone beyond that is reasonable, it’s just getting the right combination.
I think any package needs to include Aaron Heilman. The fact that Joe Nathan’s name has been mentioned as trade bait means we need a solid reliever, who could potentially close. I think Heilman fits that.
Obviously, some combination of Carlos Gomez and/or Fernando Martinez needs to be the head of said package. From what I know of the rankings in the Mets system, getting both is equal to about Ellsbury/Lester in terms of potential, so I wouldn’t be disappointed by only a 4 player package if both were included. That said, I don’t see Omar Minaya wanting to include both, unless it came down to being a deal breaker, and he wasn’t throwing in 4+ prospects along with them.
I also think their young reliever, Joe Smith, would be a nice addition. He already has a half year of MLB experience and a sidewinder, and could definitely be a help in the future, rather than trying to pay overpriced established middle relief. So right there, you have 3 decent, though not star studded MLB ready players to head a package.
2b is a position that is mentioned often as a need for improvement, so how about either Anderson Hernandez(also MLB experience, but all glove), or Ruben Gotay? I don’t have a lot of stats on Gotay, but he was decent spelling Jose Valentin last year for them, until the Mets got Castillo. From what I read of last year’s trading deadline, Mets fans were pretty split over getting Castillo vs. having Gotay start the rest of the way.
Obviously pitching is the last portion of the trade, and if the Mets are going to get the best pitcher in baseball, we should have someone to slot in the rotation behind Baker and Liriano. I’m not that high on their two prospects, Pelfrey and Humber. They both seem like they were rushed, and Humber is coming off of Tommy John. I would like Kevin Mulvey, though. He seems to be their go-to guy as the most MLB ready and highest ceiling. I think he has to be in any offer as well.
It doesn’t seem like enough to me though. I think the Mets should be willing to put in a couple more lower level prospects that could help out in the future. Looking at their system, I see guys like Eddie Kunz, Mike Carp, Brett Harper(could be a DH type of player), and Jon Niese who could potenially be future help. At the very least, they are comparable to some of the prospects being offered by the Sox/Yankees.
So, in summary, here are the three packages I would consider as being comparable, if not more so, than the other offers given so far.
1. Gomez/Heilman/Smith/Gotay/Mulvey/Kunz (1 OF, 2 ML ready RP, 1 2B, and prospects)
2. Martinez/Heilman/Smith/Mulvey/Pelfrey (1 potential Superstar OF, 2 ML ready RP, 1 high ceiling pitching prospect, and a potential no. 4-5 starter)
I think these two packages are very close, if not equal, to what the A’s got for Dan Haren.
3. Gomez/Martinez/Heilman/any 1 of the aformentioned players.
compared to…
Red Sox-Lester/Crisp/Lowrie/Masterson or Ellsbury/Lowrie/Masterson/prospect
Yankees-Kennedy/Cabrera/prospect, or if they budge, Hughes/Cabrera/prospect.
What’s the vote, and do you think the three packages I came up with are on par with what we’re looking for as fans for a return on Johan Santana?
Sorry for the long post, but as you can see, I really love this freaking game!
The reason Boston doesn’t go full force into this thing is that they can see they have bigger needs coming into the future. Manny’s 36 and is coming off a season where holes were becoming exposed. Ortiz 32, elbow and knee, Lowell 36, on his last long term contract. JD Drew, who cares. The point is they are about to have the #4 spot in the order open for someone to take. Who in their great system profiles into another manny or ortiz. Nobody
John Hickey, Seattlepi.com
The Mariners are still talking with the Orioles about Erik Bedard and with the Twins about Johan Santana, but neither deal seems imminent with Baltimore and Minnesota both asking for more than their various suitors are asking.
For the Mariners, they aren’t keen to give up the cream of their system — outfielder Adam Jones, reliever-turned-starter Brandon Morrow and catcher Jeff Clement — to land either of the left-handers, although those are probably the two best available pitchers on the market as of today.
Holy pocket lint batman Pohlad just let another one go. Carlos Silva is now a Mariner and not a Twin. Boy I don’t know who is left to get rid of. Santana Time. We will need to get rid of more to entirely staff our team like a Double A farm club
It’s final. Silva just signed a four year, $48 million deal. Wow…Santana for $20 sure looks like a bargain now.
Eric -
I have always thoughts the Twins shold defnitely be considering the Mets offers, and I enjoyed your post
the package I like the most would the Gomez/Fmartinez/Heilman/Mulvey or Pelfrey.
I like the idea of getting a young, big bat in our minor league system, and I think Gomez’s ceiling is just as high as Ellsbury’s. I also like the idea of Heilman coming to MN. Ive read places that once Santana is traded, Nathan will most likely follow, and I think having Heilman (a proven RP who will give you a ERA around 3-3.5) will help stabalize the loss of Nathan, and also give the Twins more options in whom to pursue in the Nathan trade if we dont need a RP in return.
Would you rather have Mulvey or Pelfrey as the 4th person in that trade?
Zach,
I agree that there are many better third basemen than Mike Lamb, just not available ones. I don’t think Beltre can be had for a reasonable price. You hear his name come up some times, but you make it seem like the Twins could just go get him if they wanted to. Don’t get me started on Crede. He’s terrible. Poor on base, some pop and a decent glove. Lamb is a better hitter than him and isn’t coming off of back surgery. The one guy that you mention that I do like is Blalock. I don’t mind that he has one year left plus the rib problem. At least he was good before he got hurt. Crede had one fluke year and the rest is junk. Billy Smith actually has upgraded the left side, even if it’s not as much of an upgrade as people hoped for.
Anyone who has a payroll of $125+ million should have no problem trading for Santana and giving him a 6 yr. $135 mil type deal. I guarantee that Santana will take that kind of an extension for about $22.5 year if it comes from a consistent WS contender like the Yankees or Red Sox. The guy wants to win and would sign for a few mil less than he will receive on the FA market if it was with the right team. So your going to tell me that the Red Sox and Yankees can’t afford Santana for the next 7 years at $148 mil. That sounds like a bargain to me. Including the money from this year, he is signed for a little over $21 a year for the next 7 years. Sounds like a bargain to me. Giving up Lester, Ellsbury, Lowrie is worth it because it keeps him away from the Yankees and you get him for about 20-25 mil less than he is going to command on the market. Plus, the Red Sox don’t even need Lester or Lowrie. Santana immediately replaces Lester (quite a substancial upgrade too) and they already have Pedroia and Lowell at 2B and 3B for the next 3 years. Lowrie will not be a SS and the Red Sox will just trade or sign for one after they are fed up with Julio Lugo. The only part that hurts is losing Ellsbury, but it shouldn’t hurt so much when you realize he is the only downside of the deal that allows you too add the world’s best pitcher alongside the world’s most clutch and second best pitcher.
I heard that when Pohlad goes bird watching even the birds call him cheap.
Hey were starting to look like the Astros without the pitching how did they place last year in the weak NL division
Eric,
Pelfrey. He has a better arm.
Keith Law on Mulvey
Saw him this year and I think he’s a 5 or a mediocre 4. Stuff has slipped.
I trust Klaw. For executive who actually reports what he feels.
Johan for Gomez/Fmartinez/Heilman/Pelfrey..
Yay or Nay Twins fans?
The pitcherless Minnesota Astros with no power. Oh wait there is Morneau hmmmm oh well
Jeff you make a good point. The pop in the minor leagues is at the A level. But I think the BoSox strategy is changing. Organic (home grown) pitching, OBP and defense is the future plan for Theo.
Cost controlled young talent allows for short term high dollar proven solutions. Currently the Red Sox have low dollar starters at 1B, 2B, CF, SP4, SP5 and CL. An aging $20M LF, $12M DH and over paid 3B are the s/t $$$ solutions.
With the exception of the high dollar veterns, the model sounds a lot like what the Twins have been doing.
Minaya seems to not wanna give up both Gomez and Martinez together. He has said that he needs to keep one of them especially after dealing Milledge. Alou is not spring chicken I think he is like 64 years old. For all the material I have read is the best Minaya will do is one of the outfielder with two of those pitchers and another prospect like Hernandez. In my opinion I don’t deal Santana for Martinez, Pelfrey, Mulvey, Hernandez. Other than Martinez there prospects just aren’t as good as they think they are. If we could get Gomez, Martinez, Pelfrey, and Mulvey I would have to seriously consider it. That is a lot of young talent in return for one good player, regardless of how good he is. They trade could end up working out for the Twins the way the Colon for Sizemore,Philips, Lee deal worked out for the Indians. By the way how stupid were the Indians for giving up on Phillips? Imagine how good they are right now with him playing third and Cabrera on second. Why can’t those damn Mets just give us Reyes and call it a day. They still would have one of the best offenses in the NL without Reyes. They need Santana more than they need Reyes.
They really need to take the Ellsbury-Lowrie-Masterson deal. While they do get Lester in the other deal, pitching really is the LEAST of our concerns at the moment. We have a lot of young studs that are developing nicely, if only given a chance for a change. Our MAIN concerns are filling the gaping holes we have with something other than band aids, a la Coco Crisp, Mike Lamb, and Adam Everett. These moves will be right back in our faces a year or two down the road, as we scramble to find quality players to fill them. Ellsbury and most likely Lowrie will be steady if not spectacular players in our line-up for years to come.
Take the Ellsbury trade and take the best possible player the Sox are offering. We can always flip Nathan (and perhaps a package) for another young pitching stud.
Zach…
I agree the Mets need Santana more than they need Reyes.
Once again,
Santana for
Ellsbury/Lester/Lowire
Buchholz/Crisp/Lowrie
Hughes/Kennedy/Cabrera
Hughes/Cabrera/Jackson/
Wood/Weaver/Willits
Kemp/Billingsley/LaRoche
Kemp/Kershaw/LaRoche
Reyes
Martinez/Gomez/Pelfrey/Mulvey or Heilman
Jones/Clement/Morrow
Those are the only deals that will do. Otherwise we should trade him to the Yomuri Giants for some of these good Japanese players like Fukudome.
did you see that silva actually got $48M instead of $44M. This just baffles me. Funny piece on it here:
http://mlbfleecefactor.com/2007/12/20/the-silva-fleece-keeps-getting-worse/
Maver1ck,
That’s not a bad package.
Gomez is a lot like Crisp (I fear) except he’s blazing fast and will steal alot of bases. I’m not sure how good he is at defense, but I bet he would cover a lot of ground. Martinez is very young, but is supposed to be a future star. I read somewhere that he is the best prospect being discussed. The only problem is his age and lack of experience. Heilman is all right. He could maybe replace Nathan. Pelfrey reminds me of Garza in terms of strengths an weaknesses. The Red Sox offer has more definites in it though. You have a pretty good idea that Elsbury is going to be a very good lead off hitter. People compare Lowrie to Pedroia favorably. Masterson has a ton of potential. Add a fourth prospect such as Bowden or Kalish and the Red Sox deal has to look better, but it’s fairly close. Some people are very high on Mets prospect Deolis Guerra. So adding him instead of Heilman and the trade may be more enticing to the Twins.
I was just thinking that Pelfrey reminds me of Garza, Tedge. I’m not sure how our scouts feel about him, but I think he has that much potential. He’s just not putting it together yet.
I think that package could fly, Mav. If you put Gomez and F-Mart together, I think the FO will have to consider it.
I think the rule of thumb is you have to get one player who has superstar potential or two with all-star potential. The potential superstars out of those deals are Hughes, Kershaw, Reyes, Martinez, Wood and maybe Jones. The Red Sox deal gives us two potential all-stars. A deal with the Red Sox, Yankees and Angels bring us the most ready talent. Although a deal with the Mets and Dodgers brings us probably more talent, but it is farther away from contributing. Seriously we need to throw in another player and get a Dodgers deal done. Like they don’t want Johan. They have a ton of young offensive talent and with Johan, Penny and Billingsley heading that rotation they would be pretty good. They could afford the offensive loss of Kemp, they don’t seem to even want LaRoche, and Kershaw is two to three years from helping anyway. They know he is going to be a stud though and he is the only minor league pitcher right now that looks like he could be the heir to Johan’s throne.
John Sickels top 20 mets prospects
.
1. Fernando Martinez, OF, Grade B+
2. Deolis Guerra, RHP, Grade B+
3. Carlos Gomez, OF, Grade B (undecided, may raise to B+. You guys are right about the injuries, but you also need to be more wary of Mets propaganda.)
4. Kevin Mulvey, RHP, Grade B (may raise to B+)
5. Jon Niese, LHP, Grade B
6. Eddie Kunz, RHP, Grade B
7. Phil Humber, RHP, Grade B-
8. Brant Rustich, RHP, Grade B-
9. Joe Smith, RHP, Grade B-
10. Nick Evans, 1B, Grade C+
11. Stephen Clyne, RHP, Grade C+
12. Scott Moviel, RHP, Grade C+
13. Brahiam Maldonado, OF, Grade C+ (deserves more respect)
14. Nate Vinyard, LHP, Grade C (although I like him)
15. Robert Parnell, RHP, Grade C
16. Mike Carp, 1B, Grade C
17. Hector Pellot, 2B, Grade C
18. Dan Murphy, 3B, Grade C
19. Ezequiel Carrera, OF, Grade C
20. Greg Veloz, 2B, Grade C
i can’t figure out why santana for 6 plus on his contract is so bad (i hear he might get hurt) he’s never been on the dl that i know of but yet i keep hearing if we sign him we can’t sign morneau and baby jesus to long term deals.(and you’re accepting the premise they will spend what they save) morneau maybe but baby jesus has already shown (clearly shown) that he is a yearly 30+ day dl guy. i don’t understand the logic. why would morneau want to sign long term knowing anyone worth having is going to leave.
isn’t it time for smith & co. to form a strong foundation to build long term? however i think after silva 12m santana’s price just went up from the 20m yr. i think we’re seeing again waiting always turns out for the best if you work for the twins.
They better lock up Morneau and Cuddy though. After all of this bullshit, if they don’t get those two deals done it will be a disaster. If they don’t get signed this off-season they will both walk in the next two years. I will freak out if they don’t sign Morneau, because by this time next year they won’t be able to afford him and even if they could he will just play out his last season to hit the market and get like $175 mil.
you wont be getting hughes, the yankees pulled him out when Pettitte resigned. let Santana go to boston….they probably cant sign him with beckett anyway,
LEN is talking out of his rear end and he knows it, the Red Sox havent increased their offer because they know they cant afford Santana, when theyd have to bump up beckett if they did…. this is al about getting the Yankees to bid higher and everyone knows it. LEN is a LIAR
As long as Steinbrenner keeps his head, Johan is going nowhere.
Lets just hope that we get to watch a core of this play for the next few years:
Morneau
Mauer
Liriano
Young
Ellsbury
Lester
Kubel
Neshek
Lowrie
Baker
Slowey
Perkins
Casilla
Maybe Marmot or Cedeno in a Nathan deal?
That will be a fun club to watch and if they grow together we could see a 2002 type resurgence.
So you win with pitching. 2006 Boston finishes 3rd in the east. All of a sudden their a dynasty. They don’t need Santana. Are you freaking crazy? First you must realize what we have with Johan Santana. Second, Boston’s rotation is Beckett, Dice-k, Schilling, Wake, and Lester. Very, Very solid indeed. But not need the best pitcher in his prime, your crazy. If the Twins will accept Lester, Ellsbury, and Lowrie. Theo and the Boston gang should jump as soon as they can. The Twins must resign him. He’s everything you hope for when draft a player. Great player, person, and healthy. 20M call him a bargain.
beckett was etter than johan this year and led his team to a title. he makes 10 million a year, and boston is going to pay santana better than twice what beckett makes….? yeah right
Your 2008 Minnesota Twins ladies and gentlemen:
CF Ellsbury
C Mauer
LF Young
1B Morneau
RF Cuddyer
DH Kubel
3B Lamb
SS Everett
2B Casilla/Lowrie
C Redmond
INF Punto
INF Cedeno
INF Lowrie/Casilla
OF Monroe
1) Liriano
2) Baker
3) Lester
4) Slowey
5) Perkins/Bonser
CL Marmol/Neshek
SU Crain
SU Rincon
RP Reyes
RP Gurrier
Not a bad club, but not going to really have a chance to win the central. They are in good spot to challenge in ‘09 and ‘10 with some good FA deals and trades.
Beckett was not better than Johan. He had more wins than Johan.
Do the Twins currently have any or a policy on Scott Boras clients? Couple weeks ago Jacoby Ellsbury up’d with him and I wanted to know if this effects anything.
Truer words have yet to be spoken Tedge.
he was 2nd in the cy young tedge, this year beckett was better
he not only had more wins he had 33% more wins and a lower ERA than santana so take off your twins cap and see reality
Im not Knocking Johan, but im merely stating a fact, why would boston knowingly bring trouble onto their staff when the ace they have will be making less than half what santana will… especially when he thinks hes better as beckett does
He didn’t have a lower era than santana
MY mistake. 3.27 for beckett, 3.33 for Johan.
Maver1ck-
Don’t know much about the Twins prospects right now, but if you put a C+/B- OF prospect in with Santana, I would definitely say Gomez/Martinez/Pelfrey/Heilman/one of my suggestions would be a decent deal. Again though, this is long term quality mostly, not immediate. Which is why I suggested guys like Gotay, Smith, and Heilman.
i think Johan is better over his career of course but thats not the point.
the point is why bring in trouble…. beckett is an ace too he has to think hes just as good or he wouldnt succeed…
so why would boston ever bring in a guy who makes better than twice as much, when they know it would cause jealousy and friction.
Johan Santana
W/L: 15-13
ERA: 3.33
WHIP: 1.07
K/9: 9.66
K/BB: 4.52
BAA: .225
Josh Beckett
W/L: 20-7
ERA: 3.27
WHIP: 1.14
K/9: 8.70
K/BB: 4.85
BAA: .245
As you can see. They’re numbers are fairly similar. With the one advantage being that Beckett pitched for the better team therefor had more wins. Johan also tailed off down the stretch, probably due to the lack of competitiveness of the final month and a half of the season. Even though, his WHIP, BAA and K/9 are all better.
Beckett had a career year. He’ll be back to career average in 2008, which is very good. But he is not Johan Santana. Take their career splits and talk to me about johan vs. beckett. How could Johan bring you trouble. Beckett, solid #1, Dice-k #3, Schilling and Wake are at the end. Lester another potential #3. How do you not need Johan, everybody needs him.
so boston is only in this to drive up the price on the yankees…..but the Yankees arent buying the act so far
2 weeks with no movement proves that
No, Boston has bigger holes to fill. who will replace Manny’s production? What about Ortiz, Lowell , the whole group.
Beckett will make Santana-money (or more)on his next contract. That is why he can coexist with Santana in 2008.
jeff where youre wrong is, athletes are competitive, and money equals respect to them….. if you do a job and the guy next to you is getting better than twice what you are for exactly the same work….you bet youd be pissed off, especially if you were the best worker for a company, and they brought in a new guy and gave him twice what they pay you…..
hell yeah youd be good with that right.?
First of all, you must understand the cyclical nature of the sport. Johan off, Beckett on. (yet, Jo’s number still better) youk, ped, lowell, all very good years, but above career average. Should come back a bit in 2008. What was Dice-K’s ERA in the second half, ouch. Don’t be complacent, people will catch up to you
Beckett already said he didn’t care if they added a pitcher that made more than him. Bill, what you state, is pure speculation about how Beckett may act if they added a higher paid person. I think he is smart enough to realize the upside of acquiring Johan, both for his team and for Beckett’s next contract.
So pedroia must really dislike lugo, or the fact that in August you pick up Royce Clayton for 1 million plus to sit on the bench in case Lugo goes down.
becket has 2 more years on his deal Sane and hes won the world series
Santana hasnt done squat for boston, use your head beckett will be pissed and sulk, the sox dont want that stuff going down
they just dont want him going to the yankees for too little, but they dont really want johan, or a deal wouldve been made already
How much does Dice-K make compared to Beckett?
Pissed and sulk. Who wants Beckett if he reacts that way if/when the Red Sox acquire the best pitcher in baseball. He should be happy.
dont you think beckett was told to say that, if the sox are trying to drive up the price, you have to make it sound real.
pedroia is a rookie he knows he has to put in his time to make real money
all im saying is use common sense….they traded medical records 2 weeks ago…. come on you dont find it funny?
dice-k made 7.5M this year, beckett 9.5M
the point is after 2 weeks theres no reason they havent made a deal unless theres more to the story
the Twins did ask for medical records for Lester two weeks ago. And their conclusion, we prefer to deal with Ellsbury senerio with added pieces, can you say Buckholtz. I can only assume they did not like the Lester reports.
I’m sure Beckett always says what the GM tells him to say during routine trade discussions.
I wonder if Theo’s hands are cold when he plays ventriloquist and Beckett plays dummy.
The Twins will not trade Johan unless they get their proverbial sox knocked off. The Spankees do not have what it takes, at this point, to even enter the conversation.
Bill. You’re inventing stuff. This speculation about people’s feelings and intentions is ridiculous. How will Beckett feel? Are the Yankees jealous? Whatever. It’s baseball and it a good pitcher. It’s about winning and money. That’s it!!
If he will take 20X6. Sign him today. I don’t care if he takes 20% of your payroll, sign him.
The Twins can sign him only if he WANTS to sign with the Twins.
If that happens, the Twins can’t extend Morneau, Cuddyer, Liriano, Young, etc, when their contracts come up.
Does Santana want to commit to a team that has only himself as a superstar and finish his career without a ring?
Most of those guys still have a few years till FA. What will MLB payrolls look like in five years? ‘07 Twins appx. 71m, ‘02 Twins wasn’t even 30m. 2012 will look a whole lot different than today. Four years ago everybody thought torii was going to be greatly over paid at 12m in ‘07. 20m for a hopefully very productive SP will more than likly be a bargain.
Ultimately,
(1) Santana must choose to sign with the Twins rather than a team more likely to get him a ring;
and
(2) Pohlad must pay that bill.
Good luck hitting that parlay!
The Yankees are getting very comfortable with the idea of going with the trinity (Hughes, Chamberlain, Kennedy) at the start of the season. As this point, the chances of getting Hughes in a package are significantly less than they were 3 weeks ago. Smith has backed himself into a position where the best he can get will be a Lester/Crisp deal. The Yankees are content to wait til Johan reaches FA. If he ends up with the Red Sox the Yankees will just go after Sabathia in 2009 - unless the trinity exceeds all expectations.
Forget Hughes,
Don’t count your chickens. The Hankster aka little boss, hasnt put Hughes in protective custody. Not according to Newsday interview. Hank S doesnt go into who would be involved in any Santana trade.
BY KAT O’BRIEN
December 20, 2007
In case you thought the Yankees’ dalliance with the Twins over ace lefthander Johan Santana had ended, think again.
“There’s still an outside chance that we get him,” Yankees senior vice president Hank Steinbrenner said by phone yesterday afternoon. “We’ll see. We’ve got to do things based on what we think is best. I think myself and [general manager] Brian [Cashman] are going back and forth. I think we’re comfortable staying where we are, and I certainly think we’d be comfortable getting Santana, too.”
The Pioneer Press of St. Paul, Minn., reported yesterday that “there’s buzz that a Santana trade could be made within days,” but didn’t specify to which team.
The Yankees’ conversations with the Twins about Santana became public during Thanksgiving weekend. Now Christmas is around the corner. Talks to acquire Santana reached a fever pitch during the winter meetings Dec. 3-6, in a race primarily between the Yankees and Red Sox. Neither came away with the two-time Cy Young Award winner, but Steinbrenner did not dismiss the possibility. He did, however, dismiss the much-rumored notion that he is more gung-ho to make the trade and Cashman is more reluctant to give up top prospect Phil Hughes. If there were a difference of opinion, though, Steinbrenner made clear whose opinion would win out.
“The decision is my decision,” Steinbrenner said. “It doesn’t matter one way or another what somebody … you have to take advice, but ultimately, the owner has to make a decision.”
As yet, no decision has been made on whether to up the ante and pull the trigger to acquire Santana. Both of them are undecided.
“He’ll [Cashman] tell me that one day he wakes up and wants to do one thing, and the next he wakes up and wants to do the other thing,” Steinbrenner said, “and I’m kind of the same way. I think that we’re not exactly panicking thinking that we have to have anything at this point, but it’s still a possibility. He’s a great pitcher, and it has to be seriously considered.”
It’s not just the players the Yankees would have to give up to get Santana: likely Hughes, centerfielder Melky Cabrera and another highly thought of pitching prospect. It’s also the fact that Santana, who can become a free agent after the 2008 season, will command a long-term contract likely worth upward of $20 million per year.
Santana, 28, went 15-13 with a 3.33 ERA in 2007, his worst performance since 2001. In his career, he is 93-44 with a 3.22 ERA. Despite his accomplishments, the Yankees are hesitant to give up any more than previously offered.
A seven- or eight-year contract has been floated, but Steinbrenner said that’s just speculation until and unless a trade agreement is reached with the Twins. Because Santana has a no-trade clause, the Twins would then be expected to grant a negotiating window for the acquiring team to talk with Santana and his agent, Peter Greenberg.
In another personnel matter, Steinbrenner said he did not expect the Yankees to go after free-agent righthander Mark Prior. The 27-year-old was once one of the top up-and-comers in baseball but has been oft-injured. This season, he was 1-6 with a 7.21 ERA in nine starts for the Cubs before shoulder surgery.
“We kind of looked into it, but at this point, no,” Steinbrenner said of the Yankees’ interest in Prior.
Steinbrenner declined to comment on Roger Clemens’ Tuesday denial of having used steroids, saying: “I have no reaction to that. I wasn’t there, so I don’t know. Only he knows whether he did it or not.”
Forget Hughes - blah blah blah,
The Yankee deal was too weak all along.
Sabathia and the three puppies don’t match up with Beckett, Santana, Dice-K, Schilling, Buchholtz and Wakefield.
By the way, how long have you been spokesman for the Yankees Organization?
roundabout - believe nothing you read in the media (esp. Newsday - a NY Met rag). those calculated statements from Hank are merely to keep the pressure on the Red Sox to overpay. Smith will end up settling for a package worth less than he started with unless he gets a 3rd team involved… like the Dodgers.
Please Please Please Please Please Please Please Please Please Please Please Please Please Please Please Please Please Please Please Please Please Please Please Please Will you do the Mailbag, on MLB.com for Kelly Theiser… Or at least clue her in on the things we really want to hear? I have never read something that was so out of touch with the majority of the Fans!
sane - some feel the package was weak, some don’t… my point was, however, that it will only get weaker. hughes is not going anywhere. you have way too much respect for schilling and wakefield… plus you forgot pettitte and wang. lets see what beckett can do two years in a row. and do you really think johan wants to pitch half of his games at fenway for the rest of his career? name one left handed starter who has been successful there since lefty grove.
is hank stienberger going to give up philip hughes, melky cabera, and either alana horn or austin jackson for john santana?
sam - no
The Hankster wants the big-name pitcher and Santana is the best. The little Boss is tempted, but Cashman is making him think. I prefer the kiddie corps, bolstered by Pettitte and Wang. I am not afraid of Santana on the Red Sox.
The Hankster might be and might pull the trigger on Hughes. I don’t see the gamemanship here. The Red Sox don’t have to make a move, unless the Yanks make a committment of Hughes and more. So, we shall see what the little Boss does.
The Red Sox pitching is not perfect.
Schilling is on the down side of his career. He lost a lot on his fastball; he averaged in the high 80s during the second half, I read somewhere. Wakefield is knuckleballer. Dice-K faded; who knows if he can put together a full season. Buchholz and Lester are untested across a season. Beckett is a top starter.
Yanks have similar concerns with Pettitte getting up in age and a tender elbow (previously). Wang has done it for two years (not in the playoffs) and the three kids - Chamberlain, Hughes, and Kennedy - are long on potential and short on results as startes. Who knows what they will give the Yankees in 2008.
Forget,
Fair enough.
My only point is that if we take the Sox deal, the strength of the Yankee offer is irrelevant.
The answer to your question is Mel Parnell,David Wells,Bill Lee,Bruce Hurst,Sparky Lyle and before Lefty Grove were Babe Ruth and Dutch Leonard. If I were a Sox fan, I might know more.
There would be more but the Sox themselves are afraid to sign lefties.
Also, Santana’s best pitch (change-up) will play better at Fenway than fastball and curve.
roundabout - i agree with the kiddie corp approach… largely because i don’t see Johan ending up with the Red Sox unless the Yankees up the ante - which they won’t. so it’ll come down to Johan becoming a FA and the Twins getting two draft choices.
Sane,
I don’t the Fenway records of those you cited. A few of them were excellent pitchers if not great (Ruth, Lefty Grove and Sparky as a Yankee). Parnell was good in his time but he was lost a lot of games too and I assume at Fenway; I dont recall Hurst and Wells being balls of fire at Fenway.
Santana is great. I have no doubts he would do well in Fenway.
Forget and Roundabout,
I think (and hope)the Twins will take one of the two Sox offers still on the table, rather than settle for two draft choices.
sane - not exactly a long list of starting pitchers with long term success… like a 7 year contract would require. santana would probably be fine in fenway… he’d be way more than fine at yankee stadium.. like wells, lyle, and of course the babe - albeit in another role.
Sane,
The Twins could take one of the Red Sox offers, unless the Yanks raise the stakes or another team (Angels) blows both teams off the table.
As for left-handers at Fenway, Ron Guidry did pretty well there in 1978 (going on memory).
sane - i agree that settling for two draft picks would be idiotic but to avoid that Smith somehow needs to get some more teams involved to increase the trade value. in a bizarre way, the Red Sox and Yankees are working together to slowly drive the value down and i think they’d both consider it a victory if the twins either kept santana or found a 3rd suitor.
roundabout - in 1978 Guidry could have pitched on a little league field and do pretty well.
Forget,
True. The Gator was like that for most of his career - a three-time 20 game winner who lost another 20-game season by voluntarily going into the bull pen when the Goose got hurt wrestling.
Gator was a heck of a pitcher. Too bad he didnt have enough great seasons for the Hall of Fame.
roundabout - yup…the Gator just blossomed a bit too late and could not hold up long enough physically to make the HOF.
//use your head beckett will be pissed and sulk, the sox dont want that stuff going down//
This is pretty funny. Beckett signed a below-market deal last year, and has said more than once that he’s perfectly happy with what he has. Not that he won’t ask for a bigger contract when the time comes, but to think he’d be pissed and sulk over getting Santana is hilarious.
Two things matter to Josh Beckett: Winning, especially in the post-season, and being the best dam pitcher he can be.
And as for Buchholz (let’s spell it right, shall we?), forget it. The Sox aren’t trading him.
The Twins want Ellsbury. They also want at least a second major player/prospect incase Ellsbury would tank. Lester would be that fella. Between those two, the Twins should be able to get 4-5 years out of one of the playrs. If both produce, fine.
I don’t see the need for Boston to keep Lester. He’s the 7th man. He won’t make the current rotation out of spring training, unless two pitchers go down. He’s at best a call up or long-man for the Red Sox.
The Red Sox still have Crisp. Sure, Ellsbury could be a stud for them for 6-7 years. But isn’t Santana a bigger stud? Then they can work in that low-level prospect they wanted to include in the Crisp deal with the Twins.
The Twins don’t need Lowrie. They need just Masterson. Maybe the Twins can flip in Denard Span and get one more prospect from the Red Sox.
The Yankees, to match, would have to include Hghes and Kennedy along with Melkey. That deal would be grabbed by the Twins in a New York Minute.
Red Sox folks…Lester isn’t even in the future plans. If you go after Santana when he becomes a free agent, Lester isn;t in your plans! Crisp is someone you want to get rid of. That doesn’t work for quality. You have to give the buyer otehr team someone they truly want. Ellsbury! It’s a chance for the Twins and, heck, he’ll be a free-agent in 6-7 years and the Twins won’t be able to afford him (or will have Ben Revere up here) so you can trade us Santana back for him.
As a red sox fan a few things - 1.) Crisp is terrible, he hits like a women, I hope we can pawn him off on you. 2.) You are all very demanding when it comes to the players you’ll take from the red sox, but unless you are willing to sign santana for what he wants, which your owner is not, then as the days go by you lose your bargaining power. You may end up with a much worse deal if it doesn’t go down in a few weeks.
I like the idea of the Hughes and Kennedy trade. The more I sit and ponder.. which seems to be taking forever.. the more I am turning away from the Ellsburry/ Lester deal, and towards a Hughes/ Kennedy Deal. Yes, Ellsburry would be nice, but there are alot of CF out there for us to possibly grab, or even wait a couple seasons.. say by the opening of 2010 that the twins would have an option ready.. Span/Revere/Pridie? Lester looks to be good as well, ceiling around a #3 starter. Yet this kind of return is starting to slide on me now.
With the Hughes deal, we would be getting a true ACE type pitcher, who is ready for the MLB. Put him next to a healthy liriano for the next 4-5 seasons plus the rest of a good and upcomming looking rotation, and i’m liking it. Also if we could squeeze in Kennedy into the package (might have to put Cabrera out.. oh well) and the return for Santana is looking better. Kennedy has a possible ceiling of being a #2, but probably a #3 pitcher.
This is what I am starting to think the Twins should do. They should try and put a package of Hughes and Kennedy plus prospects together(get what you can). THen follow up the trade with the Nathan trade like everybody is saying will happen. There are two ways to go here. You could look for a CF, or another high ceiling pitcher (possibly a #2 type guy). If you get a pitcher, then grab a CF from the Free Agent pool– Loften? If no luck, try Pridie/Span or even put Monroe or Young out there. For the money they are giving Monroe, dang give him a shot at everyday playing.
If the Twins end up getting Lester/Ellsburry, then I think the Nathan trade should go towards either a Pither, or a 3B. The main focus between the trades to me is “who is going to be the better player to get?” Hughes or Ellsburry. “Who is more rare in what they bring to the table?” I see Lester and Kennedy as somewhat of a wash-somewhat.. enough. I also see Hughes as being the bigger star. I think the Twins can trade for another stud to patrol CF for us, or even just get a stop gap for a year.
What most Twins fans are forgetting is that the interested teams are not trading for Santana, they are trading for the right to negotiate with him. It makes no sense to trade for Santana and then not extend his contract, This reduces his value to interested teams. There are only a couple of teams with the means and the prospects to trade and sign Johan. At some point Smith will settle for one of the proposed deals or much, much less. Don’t expect anyone to exceed any of the offers already offered for Johan.
THey would be gaining negotiating rights.. exclusive. Plus I think most teams would want to have Santana locked up for 6-7 years anyways. SO your really trading for Santana with a 6-7 year deal attached to him. Yes it would be spendy, but the interested teams have the money and can EASily afford it. Plus with the way the pitching market is going, 20-23 mil a year for Santana isn’t looking so far fetched. I am sure we will see bigger contracts for pitchers within the comming years.
Ryan was the reason why the twinkies were any good. Ryan is gone and the twinkies are now JV. Get used to continueing rebuilding plans. If BS doesn’t stop BSing, you’ll end up with 2 picks and Johan will be pitching in AL East.
The only reason the RS are giving a value (aka spare parts) is because they don’t want to get into a bidding war with the Evil Empire.
Johan’s gone and in a few years the twinkies will have enough talant to beat the KC Royals… maybe.
gtriffin, so basically you agree with me then whether you know it or not. after the Sox get johan beckett, just as you surmised he is going to expect a redone contract…. as would any great pitcher.
and what would beckett do if the Sox say no? it will bother him of course. the point is the red sox wont let that happen, they will either not trade for santana or redo becketts deal if they get santana.
which is an ADDED expense on TOP of what it costs to sign Santana. If that wasnt the case why not deal Ellsbury and Lester, lester is only their 6th best starterand though they like elsbury, they do still have crisp. the fact that they wont give bothjust shows they dont REALLY want Santana….their interest is just to act as a spur to make the Yankees overpay… and as long as Steinbrenner doesnt go all wimpish and allow Bill Smith to do a Bubba the Cellmate, routine on him, odds are you wont get a better offer
As I said last night… the Red Sox and Yankees would be very content to let Johan make it to FA. At that point it just becomes money. They are doing a very nice job working together and stringing Smith along while carefully keeping an eye on each other. Unless a third team gets seriously involved, Johan will remain a Twin until FA, IMHO.
as for the becket jealus of santanas contract hogwash, try jealus of silva’s contract. right now the #2 pitcher in baseball is making less then the best example of mediocrity available in the mlb.
silvas contract would put santana in the 30+ mil/yr catagory come FA. @ 20 mil now he is a steal for who ever gets him.
also, the yanks need him more then bo sox. if the bo sox land santana, then the yanks wont win their division, let alone an other ws for the next 5 yrs. with him they have a chance to do both.
either way, one of those 2 teams will win every ws for the forseable future, and teams like the twins will be just another quad A team.
letting him go free agent is the best idea for everyone but the twins. even if it costs 5 million more a season to sign him as a free agent, the players you dont trade with there controlled salaries are worth ten times that
Theo is smart offer just enough so the yankees have to offer hughes or the red Sox get Santana for garbage. it looks like cashman has explained it to hank and he’s figuring even Bill Smith isnt that dumb
except they’le never play to prove their potential unless they go to teams like the twins or royals where they can prove they are more then just prospects any way.
who plays CF for the twinkee’s this year?
