Twins Extend Nathan Through 2011 [updated at 1:40 p.m.]
Posted on March 24th, 2008 – 1:11 PMBy La Velle
The Twins and Joe Nathan have agreed to a contract extension through 2011 that includes an option for 2012.
The deal was finalized today after Nathan’s agent, Dave Pepe, cleared up some remaining details. The terms of the contract are not known yet but check back here for updates.
[UPDATE AT 1:40 p.m.] According to a source with knowledge of negotiations, Nathan will make $47 million over four years. That’s $11.25 million a year from 2008-2011 with a $2 million buyout if the 2012 option isn’t picked up. (Don’t know if the 2012 option also is for $11.25 million or not).
Nathan also gets a limited no-trade clause - he can pick three teams he can’t be traded to. It’s the same clause that was in his previous deal.
The deal allows the Twins to keep one of the best closers in the game and potentially stabilizes their bullpens for a few more years.
The Twins have scheduled a 3:30 p.m. press conference down here in Fort Myers. Come one, come all….
310 Responses to "Twins Extend Nathan Through 2011 [updated at 1:40 p.m.]"
Great news! Now hopefully the starting pitching will be “strong” enough to get to the bullpen, to give Joe something to save…
Some details:
They tore up is contract for this year and started over so it is a 4 year w/ a 5th year club option.
Yes, thanks for the hometown discount Joe! We love you!
I agree. What really makes me excited about this deal is the what the vine is saying about Nathan. We’re not sure how much money he’s gettting, but his agent said on the broadcast of the game, during an interview, that if had a season like he typically has, he would have got more money than the Twins are giving him. But he likes the Twins, loves the fans, and he stayed for less. Nothing for respect for the guy for this.
Too bad Tori couldn’t have taken a lesson from Joe.
that should still leave them about 10m below last yrs payroll. hope they use that to draft the best players in june and not the cheapest to sign. need to keep these quality players we have!
Thank you President Nathan!
World Serious baby!!!! Okay maybe not this year but look ahead two years.
Mauer
Morneau
Cuddy
still here still Rocking
Young
Gomez
All Star caliber by then
Liriano
back in form
Young pitchers
solidfied.
Nathan
still here still shutting them down.
Great news!
Definately glad to see the Twins ownership and FO have learned from their past mistakes with Hunter and Santana.
Hopefully ater 08 they can start looking at guys like Young and Gomez for long term contracts. As well as their developing pitchers.
Great to see this deal happen for a classy guy like Nathan. This just goes to show that the Twins are perfectly capable of signing the cornerstones of the franchise, provided the player wants to be in Minnesota and is willing to accept a fair deal. They tried to do the same with Hunter and Santana, but they were only interested in the almighty dollar. The Twins certainly can’t be faulted for that, even though most fans will try to lay the blame at their doorstep.
I think that’s great that we’ve got him locked up!
I think it’s great that Joe is willing to stay for less, but I still don’t think that it means we should expect that from everyone and think they’re horrible people if they don’t stay here for less.
Gordo said $44M for 4 years as he was interviewing Rob Anthony. But not official. No objections from Anthony.
Post-game press conference is scheduled.
Way to go Bill Smith! Good Job.
Gomez = 2007 Ferrari 599 GTB Fiorano
Kubel = 1982 AMC Eagle Wagon
This money would have better spent addressing other needs. If we going to spend to much money on a pitcher it should have been santana. Closers are way over-rated!! dosen’t anyone remember everyday eddy. If he can do it anyone with a major league arm and a little poise can do it. I think Nathans one of the top 5 closers around I just think that that’s worth overr 10 mil a season come on!!!
If Kubel was a car here would be the creative way to describe the way he is to the public who may want to get one
The Pacer - A classic of bad taste. It was round and space-age looking, they thought. Now, it looks as dated as avacado shag.
The Gremlin – Sporty, and utilitarian with a hatchback! Uugh!
jimmy bee = 1968 Chrysler Newport
It will be interesting to see what type of no trade clauses are incorporated. What the 2012 option entails, etc. It is a good move for both Joe and the Twins as Joe gets an extra $5 million this season and the Twins get a reasonable contract on one of the games top closers.
It is a lot of money to spend on a closer when Neshek is sitting there willing and able, but I am under the opinion that this young staff will need a strong bullpen to mature and the Twins bullpen is definitely that. Gardy will have to overuse the pen this season, but if they can slam the door, it will build confidence in the young pitchers abilities.
Excellent signing.
If Nathan’s worth 44 million Santana was a steal at 137 million!! Whata joke!
This is the equivilent of putting fancy rims on a family car.
He will have about 15 saves by the all star break and the twinkies will be 15 games out by then. So Smith will start shopping him and he’ll get some “prospects” back. Span getting sent down makes no sense. Gomez is going to bat 230 and strike out over a 100 times so who cares if hes faster than a DC-10. Political bs and Span should be traded because hes cant get a break in this disfunctional organization!
Kubel will be solid. Injuries slowed his major league progression. However, remember that it took Morneau and Cuddeyer a while to figure it out at this level!
Some great lines here. I think Santana was interested in money, but also in a team that would spend money and players to be the best team in the league. The Twins have not shown that tendency, ever. The NY and Boston teams have. Also, he likes the East Coast better. If he wants to liver there, and wants to play for those teams, what’s so wrong with him trying to go there?
As for the actual topic of the blog, signing Nathan is a good thing.
shameless, santana and hunter didn’t want to be twins!!!!
how will joe feed his kids?
This is a great move. We need to not lose games the young arms put us in a position to win. Nathan is worth $44 million before Santana was worth $140.
How many teams are dumb enough to spend that much on a guy who pitches 50 innings a year! Hopefully the yanks need bull-pen help in july!
I can’t believe there would be opposition to this. How many elite level closers are there? Certainly not more than a half dozen and we have one.
90 million was too much for Hunter, but you cant let someone who is the very best starter in the game for four years walk….pay the man. Think about it guys like Santana come about as often as haleys commit.
Iowa closing isn’t hard. The media builds these guys up. It’s one inning.
Once again Everyday Eddy did it successfully and he was a terrible pitcher
I see jimmy bee is still full of it. He’d have to say Cuddy is a ‘56 rambler, cuz Kubel had a better year offensively than Cuddy did.
Anyway good for Joe.
The twins arent going to win this year or next! They won’t win because they’re owner is a miser, albeit a rich one. I’m a twins fan and baseball is back…but the twins owner and all the rest except Wilf are not going to spend the money to bring a championship to MN. They hope like heck to catch lightening in a bottle every 15 yrs! Nathan is a great closer but in July Rivera will be blowing saves because him and his one pitch are 5mph slower because hes 100 yrs old! Nathan is going to take his twitches and his 1 walk in the 9th to the YANKEES!
I would have to say this is a great signing. First off the contract is only set for 2011, then if everything is fine with Nathan we can re-up for another season. That makes way more sense than seven years at 20 some odd million any day.
Also, Gardenhire actively lobbied for Nathan. He didn’t do that for Santana and Hunter. And if I’m right I believe I remember LaVelle writing how those on the team and the FO all felt that losing Nathan would be more detrimental than the losses of Hunter and Santana. Some people are just as valuable in the clubhouse as they are on the field. Nathan appears to be that kind of player.
shameless,
Not all innings are created equal. I want a guy like Nathan pitching the 50 innings that often determine win or loss.
Average closers are over-rated and over-paid……elite ones are not. We just got an elite one in his prime at a very good price!! Why would people not be happy?
Gardenhire also keeps Nick Punto on the team. Do you still trust him?
Romer Cuddy has a cannon for an arm
WHEW! Thank God. Thank you Nathan!
Great signing today. Wish we had done the same with Hunter. Santana was always in the union’s back pocket and was looking for a record breaking deal. No way the Twins can or should do that.
Gomez and Span are about the same. I would have liked to have seen Span up first to see if he can bring anything and plus keep Gomez’s timetable toward Arbitration and FA down.
Would love to see what Detroit wants for Inge. Hard to trade in the division but Rincon for Inge would make sense for both teams.
Romer who is the CF this year. Also I would say Cuddy is more like a Toyota Camry he is durable and reliable with a cannon arm
Yeah right shameless, the whole League thought Eddy was terrible. That’s why they did poorly against him.
If it’s so easy to close, why are there so many lousy closers and so few elite ones?
I can’t say this enough, just spending money does not win championships! Look at the T-wolves.
You will never be happy if you are whining about the Twins being cheap and Pohlad ruining everything on the day they sign a cornerstone of the team to a very solid contract.
Pohlad is cheaaaaaap!!!!
My last comment was intended for Tedd.
shameless-your moniker is very fitting!
One more time, with comparable AB’s, Kubel produced HR’s and RBI’s at a faster rate than Cuddy did last year. He’s taylor made for DH.
And, I’m super glad Gomez changed his swing and approach. If he hadn’t, everyone would be saying he was immature and green as he was headed to AAA.
Looks like everyone on this post has a short memory would have not won the series without Reardon or even gotten into the post season.
Then there was the closer ( can’t remember his name ( early 80’s) who got booed everytime he came in because he just could not buy an out. The booing got so bad that at one point the Twins fans took pity on him and gave him a standing O when he came in because they felt sorry for him.
Closers are prime and hard to find!
Great signing, but more important is the message the orgainization sends.
Above comments show fan committment, but lack of knowledge about unrealistic expectations from management. Everyone wishes we could have kept Santana and Hunter, but Twins developed too many good players at the same time whose contracts needed to be addressed. This team reminds me on the ‘84 squad who took their lumps, but gave valuable playing time to Puckett, Hrbek, Laudner,
Brunansky, and Gaetti. Now the nucleus is Mauer, Morineau, Cuddy, Young,Liriano, and today-Nathan. If Gomez developes, and the pitching settles out, they could be a tough as the Red Sox and Yankee nations!
By the way, all you Kubel haters, give him a break! I swear, most of the bashers never played the game……..
I love Nathan. I hear he is as great a guy off the field as he is a closer on the field.
That said, this probably wasn’t the wisest move from a purely baseball perspective. Closers are important, and should be the highest paid relievers, but they don’t warrant 11mil/yr contracts, especially when the starters are such question marks.
The Twins don’t have the luxury of occasionally writing big contracts, and not having the player work out. Every dollar has to be used wisely, and I question whether this was the wisest use of 11 mil/yr.
short memory: ron davis!
Curt, perfectly said. The Twins are never going to compete year in and year out with the likes of the Yankees or Red Sox. But every now and again, we will have a shot. A lot of teams would be willing to take that!
Well worth the $$$ for Nathan. Congrats quiver cheeks on the contract
Guess what, every position is over paid! However, the market dictated Nathan could make even more elsewhere. Let’s just be happy he is currently here and try rooting for the team for at least the first week of the season!
Nathan live on the radio.
With Neshek and Nathan the game basically comes down to winning 7-innings, because the 8th and 9th are going to the Twins most of the time. Its making it easier on the whole team and the development of youngsters. Great signing.
Sign Barry Bonds with the “leftover” $10M on the payroll from last season.
I love the signing! Would you rather have Nathan for $11-12 million a year, or be like the Brewers and sign Gagne to a $10/yr. contract?
Does anyone know if there is a website that shows save conversions with just a one run lead? Thanks.
Even with the big contract, he could easily be traded. Unfortunately, the Twins will get the hotdog in any deal same as with Santana.
SHort memory: I believe that closer was Ron Davis.
This is for “Shameless” and the others who think that signing Nathan is a bad move.
As a fan all you have to do is remember the likes of Ron Davis, Dave Stevens and LaTroy Hawkins as closers to realize the value of a Joe Nathan. Davis almost ripped the heart out of a young team with all of his blown saves. Thankfully Jeff Reardon was brought in to solve that problem.
Also, you must remember that the Twins look at Nathan as an everyday player, unlike Santana, Silva, etc. who only pitch every five days. Nathan can pitch 50 or so games if need be, to close the door for a victory, plus an additional 30 where the outcome is in doubt, for his $11.25 million. Santana is only pitching 32 games for $18 million with the win or loss in doubt, now tell me who is the better bargain?
The question remains if the Twins are good enough to give Nathan 50 leads this year. But as a fan, I feel much better having him back there than anyone else.
Nathan says the chemistry on the Twins club is second to none, and they really know how to run a club, and they really know how to run a bullpen.
Hey shameless, how does “R-D, R-D, R-D, R-D, R-D” sound?
is it going to be on TV like Jistin and Cudyer was
Sign Barry Bonds with the “leftover” $10M on the payroll from last season.
Sorry Barry ol’ chap. But I think you’re the only guy who thinks you’re still worth anything. Besides, the Twins are better off taking the $10M and either putting it aside for contracts next year.
And to jimmy bee, mind actually trying to add to the conversation? You’ve made the same Gomez/Kubel car comment at least three times (on at least two different blog entries).
You’d think the fact nobody laughed at it the first time would be a hint to not post it again.
Taking a look at 84 - 87 to this years team 08-2010
Launder = Mauer
Hrbek = Morneau
Viola = Liriano — hopefully
Bruno = Cuddy
Gaetti = ???
Gagne = ???
Puckett = Gomez — Probably not
Gladden = D Young
Blyleven = need to sign someone.
Reardon = Nathan
The mix is there but need huge upgrade to SS and 3B plus another SP
Even with the big contract, he could easily be traded. Unfortunately, the Twins will get the hotdog in any deal same as with Santana.
With Nathan locked up until 2011, any trade in the next few years still guarantees the recieving team a few years worth of Nathan before contract talks would have to get started.
Ron Davis, pitched in the days when a closer went more than one inning. A lot of his blowups occured a couple of innings in. As Nathan says, TK and Gardy run the pen correctly, the regimes RD played for were a joke.
Funny how Twins fans at least here are changing their tune now that Nathan is signed and apparantly signed for a favorable hometown discount.
For all of you “Twins fans” on the ESPN messageboards, you don’t want us to spend money becuase we “arent going to be competative” yet you seem to want us to go into the season with an unproven cheaper closer like Neshek?
Just because Joe “wont have any games to save” we would be wasting money? think of the stress he’s gonna take off the bullpen, starters, and hitters knowing they dont have to score 8 runs a night to win, think of the young starters who know they wont have to go 7 innings a night only to hand the ball over to an unproven closer.
This sounds so cliche but in this case its true. Bill Smith, a virtual unknown, has done more in one offseason than TR did in his entire 12 years here. Good riddance TR
Smith
1. took a risk and traded a stregth (Garza, pitching) for a bat Young. TR would never have done that)
2. He re-signed Morneau
3. Re-signed Cuddyer-TR tried and failed twice
4. He re-signed all star closer Nathan
5. Upgraded at 3b with Lamb instead of going with hopeful and probably .240 hitter Buscher like TR probably would have done-if not going for Punto first!
6. Upgraded the bench with the very TR like Monroe “cheap” trade. If TR was still here this was the only FA addition he’d have done.
7. Knew enough to add a SS in Everett again instead of just promoting from AAA or handing the job to Punto etc.
8. Traded Santana away a very daunting task, for players who actually wanted to be here. This move deepened our farm system and gave us a new exciting Guzman like??? (is that a good thing or bad thing?) CF in Gomez.
Face it, a lot of you actually wanted us to spend $25M a year on Santana who didnt want to be here and whom NEVER was an affordable or sensible option and because “your boy” is gone you are bitter. What if he goes down? Where does our low market team recover? It would have been club suicide.
What an exciting, memorable off-season. I think the Twins will surprise and will challenge for the AL WC at the least.
BFE does that make Kubel Randy Bush and also I think that Mauer is better than Laudner
Funny how Twins fans at least here are changing their tune now that Nathan is signed and apparantly signed for a favorable hometown discount.
Some of us (myself included) already repsected what Bill Smith put together this offseason.
It’s only now that he signed Joe Nathan that other more vocal fans (those that whined when Hunter, Santana, and Silva (?) left) finally get that the ownership and front office actually do have the best interests of the team in mind and do in fact have a plan.
I was skeptical when they dealt Santana. Hunter I could care less about, nothing was keeping him here. Morneau and Cuddyer’s signings gave me hope they’d learned. The Nathan signing proves it definitively.
I admit it. I have no idea how the Twins will fare this year. Somewhere in the middle maybe? But let’s not forget, the other teams in the division like to fold when the pressure is on. All I am certain of is that this team looks better and more fun to watch than last years team. If we lose more games 7-6 rather than watching Santana lose 3-2, at least the ride was more fun! Who else was sick of being down by 2-3 runs and knowing we’d have to string together 5 singles in the inning to catch up?
Ugh. Bad signing.
I said it months ago, and I’ll say it again: what the Twins really needed was to take the extra $11MM/yr or whatever and sign a big bat. They need a true #4/#5 hitter in order to score runs. Last year, Minnesota was 25th in MLB in runs scored, with only the Royals and the White Sox beneath them in the AL and the next-closest AL team being Oakland at 19th.
As far as the argument that Nathan is more valuable than Santana because he makes more appearances… Wally the Beerman is at EVERY Twins game and he’s not more valuable. In other words, it’s not about appearances: it’s about innings. Santana will pitch, and effect, over 200 innings each year. Nathan will probably top out at 80.
This was a bad, bad move.
Santana $25 million a year. Hunter $18 million a year. Silva $12 million a year. $11.50 for a hamburger? Yall must be crazy!!
Joe is the best closer in the game. Yes, Wally the Beerman is more valuable but still.
Mathew,
No it is not just about innings.
Santana will have a “positive” result about 20 times/year where as Nathan will have a positive result about 40 times per year.
Yes, Santana was an ace starter, but he only pitched in about 33 games year. Whereas Nathan will pitch in about 60-70 games.
In the years that Santana was here he was involved in about 20-25% of the teams wins, while Nathan was involved in about 50%.
Geeze, when did the Vikings commenters take over all the Twins blogs?
Anyway, I like this signing, because it allows us to buy some time while we develop younger potential shut-down relief pitchers. In my opinion, it’s the bullpen that is more important than the rotation. Take a look at our rotation and the guys we sent down to AAA — our starting rotation is going to be great and full of all guys who are better than Kyle Lohse. Our rotation is going to be OK — sure, we’ll probably take our lumps along the way, but that’s how you get better. Gomez is an exciting player, too. And with Guerra solidly protected at Single A, Mulvey at AA, and Humber at AAA, our bounty from the Santana trade is all in a solid position to get better without too much pressure on them. Keeping Nathan around doesn’t block the development of anybody, and if they’re willing to pay him to stay around, I’m happy.
ONE WEEK!!!!!!!!!!!!!
For all those who wanted to give this $11 million for a free agent bat this past off season, here are the options:
Mike Cameron, suspended for first 25 games.
Andrew Jones - 2 yr./36 mil., not worth it.
Mike Lowell, Jorge Posada both going to stay with their respective teams.
Jose Guillen - major basket case.
This contract isn’t going to kill their payroll, he was already making $6 million a year.
Oh, and it’s pretty obvious, but bears pointing out: the Twins were 25th in Runs Scored BEFORE they let Hunter go to free agency. Delmon Young in right is an upgrade, but not as big of a drop as the loss of power from Hunter. (I’m not saying that Hunter was or is worth $18MM/yr, I’m just saying that the Twins needed to add offense last year, and then the need got greater in the off-season).
grover gopher everyday eddy had no arm strength or movement and he was a all-star closer. If you have any balls, and brains to go with your major-league arm you can get three outs 50 times a year.
Hawkins and R-D were bums million dollar arm and ten cent head mean anything to you boso’s
I don’t recall everyday Eddie pitching us to a world series. And I don’t recall too many closers with better numbers than Nathan. But I’m sure you would know better than front office MLB execs that focus on this 24/7/365. An opinion is one thing, but try backing it up with just a crumb of logic.
Young will hit more HRs than Hunter this year.
People like to remember Hunter as an offensive force, but he wasn’t. He hit 30+ HRs once, and has a career avg around .270 I believe. He was a fine contributor, but his bat is easily replaceable.
The Nathan money (had he not signed) should have been used in the future for long-term contracts, not wasted on the bare-bones FA market this off-season.
PR wise, great signing.
Payroll wise, OK signing.
Personal Decision wise, great signing.
I think Twins fans have been hoodwinked into thinking that pitching comes cheap. I don’t mind the deal as long as Nathan remaining at top form. Isn’t he already 32? I do think we’re starting to see Billy Smith spending some of the 2010 and beyond money from the new stadium. This deal has that underwritten message all over it. Terry Ryan never would have done this deal. I only hope our young starting 7 (whom ever becomes the top 5) can get us to the 6th and 7th consistantly to make a deal like this worth it.
Joe Nathan—MIN—Starting to get a little long in the tooth, Nathan remains one of the most consistent closers in the majors. He kept his ERA under 2.00 for the second consecutive season, and still strikes out more than a batter an inning. His save attempts might slip some this year based on the fact that the Twins starting rotation all still shop at Toys ‘R’ Us, but you can bet that when Nathan gets the ball, you can all drive home safely. Expect 33-35 saves in ’08 with a 2.25 ERA and 80 K’s.
Yeah Macleod, hard to know. Interesting year. Granderson’s out. I’m think the Indians and Tigers aren’t as strong as people say.
Looks like it all depends on Franchise.
78 wins. If the Tigers and Indians have some trouble, 82 wins. If Franchise is lights out, could be 90 wins.
gomez will steal 70+ bases morneau, cuddeyer, young, will all drive in aroung 100 runs. Harris isn’t castillo but will hit. Lamb will hit Koskie type offense. We will score alot, but will mauer hit for power and will Kubel finally put together a whole season. If those two things happen we’ll score with anyone!
Soriano signed a deal last year for $17MM/yr. That’s obviously more than Nathan is getting but if you add in the value of the contracts of the garbage guys they normally bring in (say, Rondell White) then you’re right about at that level.
And the Andruw Jones signing was a good deal for the Dodgers: relatively low risk given that it’s only 2 years while capturing still some years potentially in his prime… or at least close enough.
Signing Hunter wasn’t even an option. If somebody is going to overpay then it’s time to move on. And….he was losing a step. Anybody else recall seeing certain balls that he would let up on that he used to get to? Or maybe misplaying that fly ball in the playoffs against Oakland two years ago got into his head!
shameless, what’s a “boso”?
Will Gomez be on base enough to steal 70? I hope so…but am not counting on it.
Macleod, I’ll have you know that I grew up in a house with one of the greatest baseball minds of the 20th century. Maybe 2nd only to TK. Put that in your pipe and smoke it.
I’ll say it again: what the Twins really needed was to take the extra $11MM/yr or whatever and sign a big bat.
Care to suggest who? It’s easy to say “They should’ve signed a better hitter!” but then to actually make a recommendation is when you put yourself on the line.
Nate,
Starting pitching doesn’t come cheap… but relief pitching does. Take a look at the payroll of the Red Sox relievers; it’s pretty, pretty low.
“Closer” is a designation, not an ability.
Think of Nathan’s domination like this: Over 4 seasons he’s racked up 160 saves. Over this new deal (this year, and 3 more) Nathan could easily reach the 300 save plateau.
This guy’s the real deal.
There is nothing more demoralizing to a young team than playing well and having leads blown by the closer. The Twins this year are very much like the Twins of 84 and 85. Most of the pieces were in place they just needed to mature. When we got a real closer in Reardon and a solid SS in Gagne things came together.
This Nathan deal is great! We’ve got the majority of the pieces in place. A rock solid pen, 5 great position players that in a couple of years will be all star caliber and a rotation with at least 3 solid starters if they mature as hoped. There are probably 20-25 teams in MLB who would love to be in that position.
boso is a clown sorry if my spelling is wrong
if gomez only walks 30 times and hits .230 he’ll still steal 70 bases if he can stay healthy. I have no idea how tough he is.
Sure wish Morneau will start to hit a bit..0 for 4 today..and .220 for the spring. Maybe he should sleep in a bit instead of hitting at 7 a.m. Delmon Young has really cooled off too. Hope they get it going next Monday.
I’m sorry Shameful. When I said “show some logic”, I didn’t mean throw out some random information that can not be verified. And growing up with somebody that knows something does not inherently mean you learn it. And, baseball knowledge from 3 decades or so ago might not so easily transfer to the high dollar contracts and decisions of today.
Mathew- I partially agree. However, with someone like Nathan, who he’s developed into, etc… you can’t let a guy like this just go. He’ll bring in more value being his successful self than developing “just one more” prospect.
Regarding the Red Sox, their day is coming with Paplebon. Aside from him, Tavarez is their only draw. Their bullpen has been nothing but a revolving door since Epstein took control.
my pick to click in the season opener…craig monroe….lol…..god i hate those white sox announcers….
Who cares if he hits 300 saves?
Do you know who led the AL in saves last year? Do you know what his ERA was?
Those that don’t like the Nathan signing would just be complaining about how we let him go without getting anything in return. Grumpy old men that just complain about every move. My father-in-law stopped watching sports because they get paid too much money and they are too selfish. That’ll teach ‘em!!
If goGomez get a 500 AB hits .230 and walks 30 times he’s only going to have about 110 or 120 chances to steal those 70 bases your so sure of.
i wonder if twins will pick anyone up from the waiver wires, now that all rosters are cutting down…probably will be some interesting names out there very soon…..
another thought is that the rochester club will be more fun to watch this year, much more than in years passed
Shameless - funny story, I grew up playing baseball and in HS I came across a coach that knew NOTHING about baseball, but his dad was a very good coach at St Paul Harding. Lets just say this, the apple fell VERY FAR from the tree in that scenario! I’m not saying, I’m just saying…
I have met the white sox announcers in person. And you know what? They are even more obnoxious face to face. And you can……put it on the board!!
JimmyBee — you are correct in Mauer is better then Laudner. I didn’t really rate the new Twins on being better. I was just trying to tie in the two teams and how it could be in three years. There is a certain path the Twins could follow over the next two years to equal 87. With the group they have right now.
Nate,
Very wrong on the Red Sox.
Okajima was pretty much their MVP last season. This season, they’ve designated Manny Delcarmen as their go-to guy for saves if Papelbon can’t pitch. And they keep kicking the tires on Timlin and other low-cost relievers. But it’s ok that you don’t know their names because they’re not famous: they don’t make a lot of money. And that’s the point. Relievers aren’t that valuable. Or at least, they’re valuable, but replaceable.
If the Twins had Nathan for $2MM/yr for the next 3 years, I’d agree with you. The value of, “one more prospect” isn’t why I don’t like resigning Nathan. It’s the quality free agent bat that you can bring in with the money you used to sign Nathan. If you get something for Nathan in a trade, great. But that’s not the problem with his deal.
Hey, I grew up with an alcoholic and now I love to drink! Wait, that’s supporting Shameless’ statements. Nevermind.
Congrats Bill Smith & co.
You just improved your offseason grade from a D+ to a C.
Ok Mathew, which quality bat did we pass up by signing our closer? Which bat was going to hit a HR for us in the 9th, rather than Nathan get the save for us. I really must know so I can call the Twins and let them know what free agent is out there on the market that they have failed to notice. And it’s nice that you’d love Nathan for $2 mil a season, but it’s not 1990 anymore!
I’m not sure it’s a viable argument to say nathan is more valuable because he was involved in 50% of the teams wins. While that’s true, he was only responsible for 1/9th (the 9th inning) of those wins, which results in a “responsibility” of 5.6%. Johan, on the other hand, was responsible for 60-70% of his wins (pitching 5-7 innings on average), which if you say is 20% of the team wins, well that computes out to a minimum of 12% responsibility for our wins.
Either way, I think Santana was the most valuable player on this team over the last 4 years. When him & Frankie were dominating summer ‘06, the rest of the staff raised their game because they didn’t want to be the one to break our streaks. Pitching staff’s revolve around the starters.
At the same time, I think the Nathan signing was brilliant. As many have mentioned, as lights out as guerrier/neshak/nathan have been, a starter knows if he gets us through 6 with the lead, we’ll win almost every time. With young starters, our bullpen will get a lot of work, and Nathan is the perfect rock to hold down the fort.
We have a GREAT nucleus. A couple more pieces (or just having our young pitching pan out), and we’ll make another 3-5 year run.
As I said above, both Soriano or Andruw Jones have signed in the last year and would help the Twins win more games than Nathan will.
In the 2009 Free Agent class, Tex and Adam Dunn also could do so. I would also say Manny or Vladdy but their teams have options on their contracts and they probably won’t be available.
If you want conclusive proof that starters are more valuable than relievers, consider how much they respectively get paid. Carlos Silva, a fairly mediocre starter, is still going to be making more than Nathan. Gil Meche is going to make the same amount as Nathan. Zito is going to make more than 50% more.
Is all of baseball stupid or do you think they actually know something?
Good god! You’re throwing out names of offensive players to sign that would have cost 2 times what we are paying Nathan. Nathan received a raise of $5 mil this year, and his $11 mil will be a bargain in two years. Soriano is making a ton of money and Andruw Jones’ bat speed was so slow last year flies could land on it. And instead of signing Nathan now you are going to count on signing somebody next year? That worked out well with Torii, didn’t it? And then what do you do with the closers role? Neshek? Then what do you do with the set up role? Maybe I’m being too harsh, since this is just your opinion, but you need to find me a free agent bat at $11 million a year that would be worth dumping Nathan for. And then explain to me how to fix the pitching after that.
Soriano hasn’t helped a single team win…he consistently hits for power, but they’re respective teams can’t keep teams off the board in the other 1/2 inning. You NEED pitching…and a closer is valuable - much more valuable that what we’re paying for one of the elite closers in the game. Manny is diseased and a known baby! If you want someone that comes with a “handle with care” label, then sign Manny. Seriously, if you think the Twins are going to stray from the blueprint, you’re crazy, you might as well become a fan of the White Sox/Tigers/Yankees/Bo Sox/Dodgers…etc. This team is about balanced offense and terrific pitching. Pitching is a work in progress today, and hitting should be balanced and/or also a work in progress. Either way, i’m willing to wait until 09, 10, and 11 for this team to come together and finally gel! I’m always astonished at how many people spend other peoples money - and have a better plan than others, however, aren’t in the business, aren’t in demand in decision making positions just like BS and other GM’s, and probably don’t really have a background in team sports…they’re rubes more than a true fan of the game!
Why are we comparing apples to oranges? You can’t compare Santana to Nathan. Compare Nathan to what other closers are out on the market, then decide if this was a good signing.
No: I never said I would find a bat for $11MM. I said the Twins could take the $11MM they spent on Nathan, add it to the few million they normally spend bringing in reclamation projects such as Rondell White, and come up with a legitimate power guy. Even Carlos Lee would probably win the Twins more games than Nathan and he’s in that ballpark.
we should craig as our DH then he could give advice to Gardy and tell him get rid of Boof, Kubel and Punto
BFE:
“Launder = Mauer”
not even close… Mauer >>>Laudner
“Hrbek = Morneau”
Morneau > Hrbek (Hrbie only had one 100+ RBI season)
“Viola = Liriano — hopefully”
hopefully Liriano > Viola
“Bruno = Cuddy”
that’s close, but Cuddy bats for higher average and doesn’t strike out that much
“Gaetti = ???
Gagne = ???
Puckett = Gomez — Probably not”
“Gladden = D Young”
this one is not even close… Young >>>> Gladden.
I’d mix the positions & say
Young = Puckett (maybe a little less)
Gomez > Gladden
any SS > Gagne
any 2B > Lombardozzi
any DH > Smalley
3B is an issue because all 3B in organization Blyleven
and the rest of the rotation:
any 3 warm bodies > Niekro, Straker & Smithson
“Reardon = Nathan”
Nathan >> Reardon
HERE IS AN IDEA, LETS SWITCH PAY SCALES….. PAY THE TEACHERS THE MONEY THE JOCKS ARE GETTING AND THE JOCKS THE TEACHERS SALARY. BET MOST OF THESE STUPID JOCKS HAVE 3 BMW.S IN THEIR GARAGE AND DONT KNOW HOW TO SPELL —
macleod how about rodriguez from the angels or papelbon from Boston
BFE:
Sure the ‘87 Twins won the title but lets not forget that they actually gave up more runs than they scored that season. Not a recipe for repeat success.
Hey dayoldbread,
Manny’s team has won 2 World Series in the last 5 years. Manny also has CAREER averages over .310 AVG, .400 OBP, and is good for 30+ HRs a year. I think he’s not that, “diseased”.
I think that Nathan is ranked around 3-4 best in the league currently so it is a great idea to keep him
I like both Rodriguez and Papelbon. I don’t know what their salaries are but I bet Nathan is making much less than them in a year or two. 3 great closers. Remember how crazy people thought Pohlad was when he signed Puckett to $3/mil a year? It was the highest paid contract in baseball at the time. It turned out to be a bargain a couple years after that.
who would you rather pay that money nathan or silva? easy answer.
stop complaining uncle carl is spending some money they are still under last yrs payroll by around 10m.
Paulie…terrific idea - but where will Teachers pull in the advertising revenue that makes up 1/2 or more of MLB’s revenue? Will they then turn around and charge my kid $2000 for season tickets to a chair in their room? Will Teachers/Schools also ask my kid to pay $6 for a hot dog and $4 for a coke? I’m just curious…cuz if that’s the case, i’m totally sold on that one considering that my tax dollars are already paying teachers salaries - good one…can you get that on the ballot as a referendum in 2008?
use the 10 mill to sign frank thomas
I am also hoping the Twins take that leftover cash and draft some high ceiling prospects and disregard signability, ala Rick Porcello to Detroit last year. It would be nice to have a strong farm system when the payroll expands and the new stadium opens. We should conceivably be able to maintain a strong nucleus to compete then. I will say this once again. Minnesota is NOT a small market. We are mid-level with the 14th largest market in the US. There is no reason with a new stadium that we cannot retain a solid core of 5-7 key players down the road.
I did make sure to spell check my last post - however i didn’t do a very good job reviewing for grammar…sorr in advance for anything “odd” that might be in there.
Sorry Paulie, but baseball players make a higher contribution to the economy than teachers. They bring in more money, more businesses, entertainment. Nothing personal, just plain economics. And kids can be taught at home.
We’re talking about somebody who is “in the discussion” for the best at his position on the planet.
Mariano Rivera (a very very long in the tooth Mariano) just got $15 mil/season.
Nathan’s numbers (even with a weaker team around him) will blow Mariano out of the water over the next 3 years. He’s hands-down the best closer we’ve had in a looong time, and the cornerstone of one of the best bullpens in the MLB.
He’s one of the leaders in the clubhouse, and other teams are forced to change their gameplan because of him. They know they better get to the twins before the 7th, or the game is probably out of reach. He is the back-end of that.
Kubel/Monroe will finally answer our DH prayers this year. The amount of additional production we’d get if we paid for a high-priced slugger (which we’d never do anyway) is not nearly as important as the absolute bullet we have coming out of the pen in the 9th.
Coming out of last year, expecting to lose Santana & Hunter, and possibly Nathan, I think the job Bill Smith has done to put together a team that, with the right breaks, will actually contend this year, is amazing. I, for one, am very pleased to be a Twins fan, coming into what should be an exciting next 5 years (rather than a 1-2 year window by spending $18 mil/yr on a “slugger” who gets hurt or doesn’t pan out).
Sorry, but getting $5.25M added to your 2008 salary, then getting $11.25M a year for the next 3 years and at least another $2M buyout at the end is NOT a hometown discount. Maybe if they had him signed at $10M for 2008 and he was only getting an extra $1.25M for this year, but that extra $5.25M for a guy who isn’t even a free agent yet just isn’t a hometown discount. It’s an extra $41M for 3 years. Rivera got $45M for 3 years as a free agent.
I see this signing as a good thing for two reasons.
#1) There will nothing more frustrating than to see the Twins get a one run lead and actually have a chance to win a game this year to only hand off the ball to some first year reliever and watch them blow a save and a chance to see a Twins victory. That will be utterly demoralizing for the fans and young pitching staff. #2) I don’t know what his trade clause will be yet, but it might be nice to have him for some trade bait down the road in case one of the high market teams wants to give away some good player(s) for him.
Mathew - nobody is calling Manny’s on the field contribution diseased (although not running out balls, being lazy in the outfield, etc has its detriments). It’s his clubhouse presence, the fact that he’s an absolute juvenile, that people consider him a disease. This is coming from so-called experts, not just casual fans on a twins blog.
Macleod:
Things Nathan and Puckett signings have in common:
They both played for the Twins.
Things Nathan and Puckett signings do not have in common:
Nathan is a relief pitcher; Puckett was a center fielder.
Nathan at the time is 33; Puckett was 28.
Nathan is beginning to decline; Puckett entered his prime (as is per usual for hitters of that age).
But I’m sure the fact that Carl Pohlad signed both checks is really the fact that matters.
Minnesota is a small market when comparing MLB revenue. What numbers are you using Abbe? TV market size, population? Only revenue matters. Now, that will change with the new stadium, but the Pohlads (Carl will be dead by then) are running this team like a business. They will not be spending their personal fortune (made from this team and foreclosing on houses) to buy us another World Series. Unfortunately, money will always be an issue with this team. Otherwise, I’d love to sign all sorts of free agents.
I had no idea Nathan was declining! Quick, somebody call Bill Smith to see if the ink is dry on that contract! Here’s my original comparison: Puckett’s contract was a great deal in a couple years compared to other center fielders and hitters. Nathan’s contract is a great for the next several years compared to other closers.
Mathew - do you have twinsbaseball.com up on your computer right now? If so, can you quick pop over to the link that shows you the webcam image of the new ballpark? Please let us know how everything is looking…let me know if you think that the Left Field line is going to be deep enough to keep opposing hitters in the park, and yet close enough that our power hitters will be able to scorch liners over the fence on a consistent enough basis. I’m only wondering because the new ballpark is about the only thing here you haven’t criticized…I’m serious, if you can run a team any better, why don’t you send your resume to the Twins FO. In fact, why don’t you put one in the mail everyday from here until the start of next years camp in hopes of signing on in time to make some important off-season trades/FA signings. Cuz honestly, I’m convinced that you’re the greatest baseball mind ever (well 4th, next to shameless, his dad, and TK). You have to be one of those glass 1/2 empty guys.
Going into the hot stove season I didn’t think the Twins would resign Nathan. The way things were going with Hunter and Santana I figured they would package him up for some more prospects because they wouldn’t need a closer in rebuild mode.
But I like this move to sign Nathan now even though this year is likely a year to reload. The price seems fair for what the market is bearing today and the Twins will want a stud like Nathan closing for ‘09, ‘10 and ‘11.
For all you folks that don’t think the Twins should spend the money for him when in rebuild mode, what do you want to do, lose him and get nothing in return? You want want to sign him no matter what your plans are. If you expect fair value for him in a trade he better be signed for long term. Most teams now want to hang on to top prospects and wait out the season to get the free agent instead of mortgaging their future studs.
OCF,
I don’t care what some SI guy writes about Manny; I care about what his teammates say about him. And I’ve never read a teammate being critical of him. It’s just a story they want to write. And, as I said, they have had success the last few years.
It reminds me 1994 when the Bulls were playing the Jazz in the NBA Finals. Rodman skipped practice once they got to Utah and went to Vegas. Everyone in the media was all upset about it… how could he do this… it disrespects his team… it’s a distraction… on and on on and on. They finally talked to Jordan, Pippen, Phil Jackson… and they didn’t care a bit. Just Dennis being Dennis, they said.
So I’d be careful to label someone a clubhouse disease unless it’s coming from the clubhouse.
does anyone know of any good bats that could be acquired for the remainig 10 mill we have left?
Nathan is declining?
Man, that 1.88 ERA from last year was pretty poor. Two years ago he had a 2.70 ERA. He also had a better save conversion % last year than he did in 2005.
He’s had 4 amazing years as our closer. The guy is a stud. He’s given up only 15 HR’s in 282.1 innings as a twin. He’s converted 92% of his saves as a twin (and probably won a few of the 14 blown saves he’s had in 4 years, simply because the opposition only tied the game, not took the lead).
3.5 blown saves/yr. Lights out.
A lot of positivity on this blog today….good to see…
I really like this signing, especially considering it gives the Twins the option to trade the guy if we turn out to be a non-contender this year or next year…
I guess going into the offseason I was hoping to keep either Torii or Santana; being that we dropped the ball on both, it makes you wonder how they decided to pay Cuddyer and now Nathan–the Morneau signing was a must. Again, I would rather sign Nathan than not sign him, but, wow, Johan Santana would still look nice in a Twins uniform.
So the franchise that built its early decade run on starting pitching is now lacking in that department…and maybe Santana really didn’t want to continue as a Twin, but my hunch was that if we showed him the money he would’ve stayed–his comments during the season, bitter as though they may have sounded to Twins fans, was nothing more than a reality check in my opinion–the Twins don’t do enough to improve talent-wise in the offseason…let’s hope that’s the major exception here in 2008 because our track record in that department has been shameful as of late.
If Gomez gets 500AB and 30 walks, that’s 145 times on base, not 115. If he plays every day, he could easily get in excess of 600AB. Reyes and Rollins get 700+ plate appearances per year. I think 50-60SB is a legitimate expectation. 70 is possible.
Closers are fungible. You could have shuffled Neshek, Guerrier around last year, and gotten the same team W-L record (or Nathan/Neshek/Liriano/Reyes in 06, or Nathan/Crain/Rincon in 05). Nathan is getting paid this $ because he has the title “closer.” Not because he is doing something that no one else (even in the Twins bullpen) could do.
I would rather have Nathan in my bullpen than not in my bullpen. But I’d much rather have spent that money on a Santana extension.
All that said, I am thusfar liking the potential of the return on the Santana trade; we may end up getting good value on that trade after all. Low expectations are working in our favor.
MacLeod,
It’s not a good thing to be proud of ignorance.
Nathan IS declining. Last year, his K rate dropped from about 1.5/inning to closer to 1.0/inning. Baseball Prospectus projects his VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) to almost halve.
Pitchers, even relievers, don’t generally get better into their 30’s. You don’t have to call Bill Smith to know that.
If people here are going to insist on dragging Manny through the mud here you have to admit one of two things.
One, that Manny isn’t really a clubhouse disease or cancer.
Or two, having a clubhouse cancer like Manny isn’t so bad and team chemistry is fairly meaningless when it comes to W and L.
The guy has almost always been on winning teams, made the payoffs most the years in is career, and has been to 4 world series, winning two.
Nice signing of Nathan, not smart payroll wise, but if you have to pay someone, it might as well be Nathan.
Mathew -
I’ve never claimed to be making an observed opinion - I’m simply deferring to the “experts” on this - the ones that are much more in the know about the red sox club house than you or I.
What player is going to come out in the open and say “Manny is a cancer”
It’s like saying Barry Bonds wasn’t a cancer, because so few of his teammates spoke out against him. We all knew he was, just like we all know he did steroids.
AM,
figure that Gomez gets on say 10-15 times on fielders choice. Maybe 5 times on errors, a couple more times on called 3rd strikes, beating throw to 1st
I think that Blyleven called gogo the name beep beep like the roadrunner
Don’t worry boys, Mathew is the same guy that would have been criticizing this move if they didn’t sign him to a contract, and wound up losing him in next years off-season. He likes it both ways (and i’m not trying to insinuate anything with that other than in baseball terms either), talks out of both sides of his mouth, and would probably like the Twins to spend the money on their payroll the Yankees spend annually. I have one more question for Mathew - what happened in 2005 & 2006 when the Indians hit all those homers, and knocked the ball around, but lost games consistently cuz they lacked anything in their bullpen? How secksy is it when the TX Rangers would put up 8 and still lose 12-8 (giving up 6 runs in the final 2 innings of the game due to lack of set-up guy/closer)? Trust me, its easier to win with solid pitching than it is to hit the cover off the ball only to hang a bunch of curve balls in the other 1/2 of the inning!
OCF,
100% different. In Bonds’ case, noone either said anything good about him, either. If you follow the Boston papers, Manny’s teammates love him.
There’s even a phrase, “Manny being Manny” … they just shrug, laugh, and say what can you do.
I’m with OCF on this one, sorry Mathew, you have no support on this. Its You v World!
I believe this Manny thing came up last week. Most people agreed that Manny has his difficulties, but they don’t include winning games or getting hits, what actually win games. What counts is what happens between the lines, to think anything else matters would make you a “i’m not allowed to say it anymore”
Wrong, dayoldbread.
I said 2-3 months ago (on here) EXACTLY the same thing: signing Nathan was a BAD idea. What the Twins needed was more run production.
So this little smear that no matter what the Twins would’ve done, I would’ve been critical, is just wrong to the hilt. I said it was a bad idea before, I’m saying it’s a bad idea now, and I’ll say it was a bad idea three years from now.
You should NOT pay for a designation. Nathan is a great reliever… give him to someone else and promote someone like Neshek to be your, “closer”.
Mathew - you just admitted exactly what we’re saying about the guy…they don’t say anything cuz they’ve grown to accept his misbehavior as it just being “Manny”. However, anyone else less talented would get the boot. Trust me, before they won the series they wanted to run him out of town! Don’t you remember the trade they almost made…if you’re going to try and support yourself with something as damming as what you hit us with, you should really go back and try and remember that he’s only around because of a failed trade attempt, and I’m sure they’ve learned to put up with him solely because of their success, not due to anything he’s directly apart of.
dayoldbread,
That’s fine. The truth isn’t a democracy.
imagine if the angels got manny boy that would be a terror Vlad, Manny, Hunter
Nathan’s K/IP
2004: 1.24
2005: 1.34
2006: 1.39
2007: 1.08
Nathan’s GO/AO
2004: .64
2005: .65
2006: .73
2007: 1.06
Yes his K’s were obviously down last year, yet as he’s progressed, he’s learned to keep the ball down (not as many letter high fastballs that a player might catch up to).
While much higher than his domination in 2006, his WHIP was only up ever so slightly over 2004/2005.
Elite closer. I don’t know how anyone can argue against that.
Trade attempt? Which one? Manny has demanded a trade basically every year he’s been with the Red Sox. He even demanded a trade to the Red Sox AAA team once.
The closest they ever got to it was when the Red Sox wanted to sign Alex Rodriguez and so wanted to clear salary room. So they put Manny on irrevocable waivers but noone bit. So A-Rod ended up on the Yankees.
Is that, “the trade they almost made” that you’re talking about? Trust me; I can go 12 rounds talking Red Sox with you and you’ll lose every one.
OCF:
Because Nathan’s new contract isn’t for 2004-2008 but 2008-2010. That’s the problem.
if we got manny just look at our 1-6 hitters
gomez
mauer
manny
morneau
young
cuddy
And yes, “manny being manny”
They said that when Manny demanded a trade. Then said “but not to an NL team, or to this team, or that team.” Then said “oh I never requested a trade.” Then said “I demand to be traded.”
On any team but probably NY or BOS, he would be a disease, because he’s “me me me” and a big distraction. But those clubs are at a different level, both in baseball terms and media terms. Manny would get the boot in MN in a heartbeat. Can you think of any clubhouse cancer guys that they’ve kept around here in MN?
I think the Twins should trade Punto, Span, and Rincon for Manny.
Pitchers peak between 29 & 30: http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2004/03/age-and-pitching-performance/
it’s nice to see the twins sign nathan, he’s a great closer and just seems like a good guy to have on the clu
Manny would ruin Twins clubhouse chemistry, can’t have that. Twins like to lose games the “right” way.
Nathan is an elite closer. He’s not nearly as long in the tooth as rivera, and he just got 3 yrs, 15 mil per. That’s the market for “elite closers” right now, and we got in under 15 mil per. Over the next three years, Nathan’s contract is going to look great.
In the next 3 years, nathan will be gone, and Neshek will be making 8 mil/yr for the next 3 yrs, which will be a steal.
onecurly,
He seemd to do just fine in Cleveland.
OCF,
That’s actually not true. Manny is not, “me me me” … he’s just kind of a space cadet. But his teammates love him. You read reports of him giving money to the rookies to get new clothes, giving a batboy $50,000 as a birthday gift, asking his personal trainer to move to Boston with him, and just generally being a fun guy to be around.
He’s distracting for the media because of the goofy things that he says, but he’s honestly liked by his teammates.
Then who replaces Neskek? We currently sustained or added power at every position in the order…how much more do you need? Harris is an upgrade over Punto (power numbers alone). Everett is probably the only non-upgrade technically. Lamb is an upgrade over Punto/Bartlett/Castillo, Everett is a power upgrade over Castillo and probably Punto. Harris is a power upgrade over Punto/Bartlett/Castillo. Gomez should be, but he’s definitely unproven for this upcoming season, an upgrade over Castillo (heck, I’m pretty sure he’ll be an upgrade over whomever they put in LF last year). Young should be at least AS GOOD as Hunter was last year. Cuddy should be as good or better (sustained). Morneau signed long term (sustained). Mauer signed long-term (sustained). Kubel/Monroe - better than White and whomever else was our DH last year…who else do you want them to go out and get? I’m not at all dissapointed because for the first time in about a decade they finally addressed their offensive needs! Its just silly to think that the Twins (the Walmart of MLB) would spend money on Manny or Soriano (who publicly said he wouldn’t stay here if he was traded here), or anyone else! Sheesh, like I said, you, and people like you will never be satisfied!
I can’t think of any clubhouse cancers, but I can come up with some on field cancers. RonDL, Leeeeew, L-Rod, Tyner, Batista, Ponson, Ortiz, Castro, Lohse. I’d subsitute Manny for those guys
I’m just happy we have things like this to go back and forth on, there are so many cities across the US that don’t have MLB to critique like this! I’d hate to live in Portland OR and other cities like that!
If pitchers peak at 29, why did Nathan have the best year of his career at 32? Obviously metrics aren’t everything.
LNP4Life
I think the Twins should trade Punto, Span, and Rincon for Manny.
heck yeah where do we sign up for this trade
I’m glad that “Shameless” is not calling the shots for the Twins. If you give up Nathan, then, you give up any chance to be a contender over the next few years. Teams don’t win titles without great closers.
jimmy bee,
yeah, it’s a beaut isn’t it.
OCF - what you’re overlooking here is that if Mathew says it, it’s set in stone, sure to happen, and probably in the bible too! Just leave the guy alone. Let him go home to his significant other and due to us not giving him his pulpit, she can put up with all his nonsense and we’ll be less stressed having not tried to beat a dead horse (no animals were injured/hurt in the typing of this message/post), bang our heads on the wall, or in all honesty, talk to someone that only hears his own voice.
LNP4Life -
Yes plenty of on-field cancers (although Tyner I would argue. Despite the lack of power, he hit for a decent average, was scrappy, and covered a lot of ground in the outfield).
Notice how everyone else on that list is now gone?
The question isn’t, “Did the Twins overpay relative to the market” … the question is, “Did the Twins make the best use of their resources”.
You can talk about Rivera making $15MM/yr until you’re blue in the face, but the Yankees are also paying A-Rod $30MM/yr, Giambi $22MM/yr, Jeter $21MM/yr, Abreu $15MM/yr, Damon $14MM/yr, Matsui $13MM/yr, and so on and so on.
My point is that the Twins have been very bad the last few years at scoring runs. Resigning Nathan does not address that issue. And the Twins are not going to go out and spend $200MM on their team. So if you only have so much money, saying that Nathan is $1MM/yr or $2MM/yr below what someone else is getting still means you did the wrong thing.
As my mother says, the first question you ask before you buy something is, “Do I need it?” Only if the answer is yes, do you ask the second question of, “Is it the right price?” For Nathan, the answer to #1 was no. The answer to #2 doesn’t matter.
yeah can we trade Kubel and everett for arod also
I made the list of players who weren’t here. I’m leaving this season’s players a chance to impress before i judge them. I’m sure some people could come up with a guy to add to my list.
OCF - once again in Mathew’s opinion the Twins don’t need it, and for his $$ they need power. Hahaha, wow, in his world you’d never get anything. I wonder if he ever got anything from Grandma for Christmas with that logic? I’m thinking that he probably wound up with socks every Christmas cuz that was probably the only thing he “needed”.
I’d rather work with a guy I didn’t like who gets his job done than a guy I like who doesn’t do his job. Most people who do real work would agree.
Everyone needs to get over Santana. He’s been a great pitcher, but, he’s not worth $140 Million for the kind of performance he gave the Twins last year. A.L. hitters had figured him out. That’s why he gave up so many home runs last year. Also, Delmon Young is going to make everyone forget about Hunter. The guy is going to be a superstar.
Oh, OCF, ouch!!!! Career year at 32! That really shoots down the entire concept of pitchers not aging well. Touche! Well done!
I suppose if I told you that people lose money playing the lottery, you’d say, “Uh uh. I bought ten tickets yesterday and won $2 on one of them! Take that, Mr. Fancy-Pants Statistics!”
There’s always going to be deviations from the norm. That doesn’t mean you should start believing in them as the truth. Also, with one closer who pitches only about 70 innings, you have a sample size problem. But I’ll bet you $100 that Nathan’s 2009 isn’t as good as his average year of 2004-2007. What you say?
Does anyone actually think before they post absolutes like.
“Teams don’t win titles without great closers.”
Yeah, they do.
Either that or the list of great closers is incredibly long.
dayoldbread,
No. They NEED run producers. But, you know, making a joke about socks is probably about as good as you’re going to do at this point.
Great analysis. Keep it up.
glad tolbert made the club, he’s a really samrt ball player and a switch hitter that i think will really help us
The problem with Mathew’s logic is that there’s no one in the Twins organization to replace Nathan (no, Neshek won’t do) and the Twins are too cheap to sign a top-flight free agent closer. So, resigning Nathan is the best option.
OCF - Just curious, do you like the signing? I like it, personally, cuz it finally gives us leverage. How many teams do you think would give us anything at the deadline for Nathan if we’re out of contention and someone needs him? I’m personally on board for having him locked up considering our money situation this season. Get something for him in July if/when it’s determined that we’re out of it and someone’s willing to throw in a slugger prospect in AA / AAA ball. Trust me, this deal, IMO, will not come back to haunt us! And if we’re contending, we have a shut down closer to get us deep into the playoffs (there is nothing but brightside to this signing!)
Okay G, give me the long list of teams with putrid closers that have been World Champions?
I’m with G - right on fella!
G nailed it on the head…I’m sure he’s for Teachers making millions and players working for $30/hour too.
tolbert’s very versitile and has been hitting good pitching all st long, he’ll be hard to keep off of shortstop before june, everyday starter i predict by the all-star break. never know may be a dark horse ROY with this guy
Going on the record today - the Twins will hit more HR’s this year than in any of the previous 5 seasons (assuming their boys stay healthy), they will NOT be in the bottom 5 of run producing teams (again, assuming no major injuries), and I’m firmly of the understanding that everyone they rostered this off-season IS the run producing upgrades they should have gone out after last year, and many years prior! I’m not worried, I love the Nathan signing…I’m all for it because we have a shut down guy, and trade bait if we’re not pitching ourselves out of a wet paper bag at the top of the rotation. All this worry about overpaying for an old decrepid guy is beyond me. This guy has hardly any wear and tear on his arm…he’s not going to drop off that much because he only puts in 70 innings, ife we don’t wind up needing him, others will and will probably offer up something significant enough for our future. Stop thinking so shortsided and look at what the Twins are trying to accomplish. Win this year, and if not ramp up for 09, 10, and 11 - GO TWINS!
The advantage with my logic is that you don’t need a top-flight closer.
2007 MLB saves leaders…
Valverde: ERA of 5.87 in 2006.
Borowski: ERA of 3.77 in 2006.
Cordero: ERA of 3.71 in 2006.
Hoffman: ERA of 2.14 in 2006.
Jenks: ERA of 4.03 in 2006.
F-Rod: ERA of 1.73 in 2006.
Putz: ERA of 2.30 in 2006.
Saito: ERA of 2.07 in 2006.
Jones: ERA of 3.94 in 2006.
Papelbon: ERA of 1.85 in 2006.
Nathan: ERA of 1.59 in 2006.
If you have a stud guy, great. But if you have an ok guy, you get by. And even out of this list of the top saves in the majors, most of these guys don’t make that much. Very few have big paydays… heck, Saito signed a $500,000 rookie contract out of Japan his first year.
Closers are manufactured, not born.
I like the signing because it gives us the best bullpen duo in the majors (Neshek - Nathan). If you want to win the division, your team has to be best at something.
Also, I am having a hard time seeing where another bat would fit in this lineup. I’m not too thrilled with Harris at 2B right now, but his history is, he is a lousy hitter in spring training. Upgrade Lamb at 3B? Sure, but with who? So far this spring, Lamb has been hitting, which is more than I can say for Morneau. Everett? His defense will make up for his lack of offense.
When I look at our lineup, I see a lot of improvement over last year. The only “easy” out is Everett, and he’s hitting .278 this spring. I say, let’s see ‘em play before we start complaining about a lack of runs. Offensively, this team might surprise us all.
From La Velle’s blog:
March 14th 12:16 pm, Craig says:
Tolbert will be one of the 25 players kept. I am 100% certain.
March 14th 1:32 pm, Craig says:
Tolbert will be one of the 25 players. It’s a done deal. You can take it to the bank.
March 14th 4:54 pm, Craig says:
There is room for Everett, Punto, Harris and Tolbert. Tolbert is not really a light hitter. He can drive the ball a little. He is very versatile. He is just what this team needs.
March 14th 5:05 pm, Craig says:
Tolbert will start the season in a utility role.
March 17th 11:42 am, Craig says:
Tolbert will get the job. That’s my prediction.
March 17th 12:11 am, Craig says:
La Velle also thinks Tolbert has little chance to stay, but I think I know Gardy. Tolbert is so versatile he keeps Gardy inside his comfort zone.
March 18th 3:21 pm, Craig says:
As I stated earlier, I am 100% certain Tolbert will be one of the 25.
Some people call me a troll, others call me a genius. I am too shy and modest to talk about myself.
Will Nathan’s stats decline next season?
Here are 2 projections that think he will do about the same.
Year IP H* BB HR SO WHIP AVG
2007 72 54 19 *4 77 1.02 .211
Bill James
2008 70 50 25 *4 81 1.07 .202
ZiPS
2008 70 53 20 *4 82 1.04 .212
TC,
There is a large gap between putrid and great. Do your own research and list the closers on the teams that won the last 20 WS. Not EVERY SINGLE ONE had a great closer, not even close.
LNP: “I can’t think of any clubhouse cancers, but I can come up with some on field cancers.”
LNP, that was the post of the year so far! Well played, young man, well played.
Mathew: You’re on the wrong board to bring up VORP. And by the way, you’re wrong…signing Nathan is a great use of resources for the Twins. His salary doesn’t impact what Smith will be able to do over the next couple years, and the new stadium comes on line just in time in 2010. Ask yourself this…are the Twins a better team with Nathan than without Nathan. That’s the important question.
Craig,
I notice you didn’t copy/paste the dozen or times last year you predicted Castillo would never get traded, you were %100 certain of that too.
Makes you about as accurate as a broken clock.
%50 is not too shabby, unless you’re shooting free throws.
(congrats though on scooping LEN, who did everything but call you a typical blogging idiot the several times he said Tolbert likely would not make the team.)
craig was right, i give him props, now lets hope tolbert turns out to be as good as he has looked in spring training, i will say this guy has some tools i’m really optimistic about this season
G,
Sorry, good try, but there are no posts where I said I was 100% certain, Castillo wouldn’t be traded.
I only say 100%, when I am 100% certain.
twinsfan,
Tolbert is an exciting young player. Last off-season my wish was to see him and Bartlett as the DP combo. I think that would be a real hitting upgrade over what the Twins have now. The fielding would be a little shaky, but I think they would settle in.
I was worried about Bartlett, and for awhile I mused about the possibility of moving him to the OF. I think he will be just fine at SS. I hope he has a big year at SS for the Rays.
Tolbert is nothing more than a utility player at this point…
Another Punto that the pitchers haven’t figured out yet!
Humber should be our closer.
Great signing of Nathan. We will now have THE OPTION of trading a price certain Nathan at some point in the future if we wish. If we can develop a couple of quality relievers & can’t develop a stud 3b, it could easily happen. Until then, I will enjoy watching Mr. Nathan owning the the 9th inning! I hope he finishes his career with the Twins & gets at least one WS title.
[…] other news, the Twins actually re-signed one of their key players, Joe Nathan. Man, wait until those successful players that left here about […]
I must concur with the general consensus of the posters that Joe Nathan is indeed amazing. It’s a great move and sign by the organization, too, to show that they are very intent in keeping Nathan and make him part of the bullpen that will inaugurate the new ballpark! 
It’s great also to see him locked up for this long, to perhaps bring back a pennant to the Twins.
Go twins!
“My point is that the Twins have been very bad the last few years at scoring runs. Resigning Nathan does not address that issue. And the Twins are not going to go out and spend $200MM on their team. So if you only have so much money, saying that Nathan is $1MM/yr or $2MM/yr below what someone else is getting still means you did the wrong thing”
Matthew you are dead wrong. Lets take a look at the 2008 Twins vs. the 2007 Twins.
2007 2008
SS Bartlett SS Everett better D, worse O
2B LRod/Castilla Harris major upgrade
3B Punto Lamb .313 12/59 avg lst3 yrs
1B Morneau Morneau
C Mauer C Mauer
LF Kubel/White Young Major upgrade
CF Hunter Gomez-downgrade (for now)
RF Cuddy Cuddy
DH Cirillo Kubel .302BA in 2nd half
Bench
Monroe-major upgrade, depth
no more junk players: Lew, LRod, White, Cirillo
Red Dog-consistent as they come
Tolbert-if anything adds depth and better potential/contact than Castilla
How exactly did we not add offense?
G, all I know is that you can’t back up your criticism of me with facts. Let’s take last year as an example. Who won the World Series? The Red Sox. Who’s their closer? A stud named Pappelbon. You can get lucky once in a blue moon and win a championship with a weak closer, but, most of the time you need a very good to great one to win it all. Give me a list of 5 of the last 10 World Champions with mediocore closers and maybe I’ll believe you.
“[…] other news, the Twins actually re-signed one of their key players, Joe Nathan. Man, wait until those successful players that left here about […]”
How quickly people forget the 6 $80M contract Morneau JUST signed this off-season or the 3 $24M contact Cuddy signed………
Best Twins offseason ever. Period.
Hey it could be worse. We could be the A’s. Seriously who trades Dan Haren when he has 3 years left on his very affortable $16M contract? Also, same for Nick Swisher when he had 5 years left. Their moves are making no sense.
Sure they are adding depth/re-building but for what? They are always re-building. The Pirates of the AL. Even if their talent works out they trade them for more prospects. Its a revolving cycle.
Also, if we’d have lost Joe people would be complaining about the “cheap” Twins and their inability to keep their best players, then the stadium and “why did we fund it” would have surely come into question next etc.
There is no pleasing some of you.
I hated to lose Santana as much as the next, but what we got for him will help this team. I would argue except for (1) pitcher in this years rotation, our staff is better than last. Santana might get (10) more, at most, wins than his replacement, hopefully the rest of the staff being better than last is worth (2) wins apiece. If that is the case we are at a differential of only (2). Our offense is much better than last year and will easily make up for the (2) game difference.
This team will compete in the AL Central. If they don’t win it this year they will next when Cleveland loses Sabathia, and Detroit will be too old to compete night in night out.
Lamb is an upgrade but that’s largely because Punto was so bad. I wouldn’t get too lathered up about Lamb’s stats, though, since mostly he’s been a platoon guy, generally only getting half a season’s worth of at bats.
Harris may be marginally better than Castillo but Castillo has the better AVG, better OBP, and has been around. Even being generous, “major upgrade” is too hopeful.
Delmon Young is an exciting player for sure, but having one of your primary offensive cogs have an OBP of .318 is, well, offensive… especially when they K about 20% of their at bats. He should be good eventually, but this year should still be pretty raw.
And Gomez: yikes… at least this year. If only you could steal first.
Mauer, Morneau, and probably Kubel will be fine.
You may be right and this year’s Twins offense is better than 2007 version. But even if it is, it still is by no means frightening. Most of the Twins players are below league-average for their position. They are above the quad-A league scrubs that VORP measures, but not by much. They certainly look bad compared to a real offense such as Detroit.
What it comes down to is that none of the additions are significant other than the fact that they’re not catastrophically bad. It’s ok to have two guys at the bottom of your lineup like that but you don’t want that to be the majority. If nothing else, you want to have to have someone that can be relied upon to bring guys home. And the Twins don’t have that.
TC:
The Red Sox also had a batting order of:
Jacoby Ellsbury
Kevin Youkilis
Big Papi
Manny Ramirez
Mike Lowell
J. D. Drew
Jason Varitek
Dustin Pedroia
Julio Lugo
and a rotation of:
Josh Beckett
Curt Schilling
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Jon Lester
Tim Wakefield
Basically, every position of theirs is an upgrade over the Twins except for catcher and probably first. They won their games: 13-1, 2-1, 10-5, and 4-3. Papelbon played his part but there were plenty of other reasons they won besides him.
I view the whole argument as akin to saying, “Every millionaire I know has a butler. Therefore the way to make millions is to hire a butler.” No… you go ahead and get a butler (elite closer) once you have everything else taken care of. Because that’s not the foundation of your success.
To save you some work since you guys seem more fond of throwing out aphorisms than of actually looking things up, the closer for the last 10 WS champs.
2007: Papelbon (Red Sox)
2006: Wainwright (Isringhausen had surgery) (Cardinals)
2005: Jenks (White Sox)
2004: Papelbon (Red Sox)
2003: Looper (Marlins)
2002: Percival (Angels)
2001: Kim (Diamondbacks)
2000: Rivera (Yankees)
1999: Rivera (Yankees)
1998: Rivera (Yankees)
Of that list, Papelbon and Rivera would be considered, “elite” and Papelbon was a rookie the first time the Red Sox won in 2004 so I’m not sure if you’d count him that time. And as discussed, the 2007 Red Sox won because of a number of other players as well, as did the 1998 - 2000 Yankees.
So this idea that, “elite closer” is needed for a World Series is basically a bunch of fluff.
The Twins offense was horrible last year. Stats can be so misleading. Take a stat like BA with runners in scoring position. Averaged out over a year, maybe the numbers don’t look so bad. But last year there were many games when the Twins were generally outplayed over nine innings but did put an inning or two together where they could have put up the winning runs and came away with nothing. Like the Detroit series. They had a chance to win every game - and got swept.
Don’t dwell on stats. If they were that important, you could save a ton of money by trading your scouting staff for a subsription to Baseball Weekly.
This is crap…I stop by to see some optimism, and all I see is Mathew (must not have anything going on today other than spreading the cheer) being super, super, positive. Seriously, this guy is the guy that sits behind you at the game/bar yelling at the coach after the Twins win 3-1 complaining about how he wouldn’t have done this, would have done that - he can’t be happy with what the team did do in the offseason, he’s so shortsided that he’s the only one thats right, and people that are paid lots of money (and have a plan that - unbeknownst to him - they didn’t ask him about and don’t reveal to him cuz he’d just jump on here and tell everyone about it and rip it to shreds cuz it still isn’t enough for his liking). Lets ask Mathew this - what did the Yankees do right/wrong this offseason? Is Mathew pissed that the Yankees didn’t get Santana, Hunter, Dunn, Soriano, Harren, trade for Manny, and figure out a way to get Andrew Jones at the same time? Oh yeah, and I bet he’s probably a HUGE fan of A-Rods too. Mathew, for the past 7 years now the Yanks have tried to go out and buy a WS by putting these run producers in their lineups - NEWSFLASH, you do NOT NEED HR hitters to win a WS! A-Rod, Godzilla, Johnny Damon, and Soriano did not bring a WS to the Yanks. Trust me, your logic is ‘flashy’ at best…but it doesn’t win WS titles - fact is you’re an idiot. You flash stats that are just that…stats. I can find them, JP can find them, any idiot can find them. The Twins won several division over the past decade and never led the division in runs/HR’s nor many of the other offensive stats with the exception of Team Batting Average (one season I believe). Doesn’t it seem odd that you’re the only one preaching this logic? You seem to be pretty much on your own here. Sure, you don’t need an elite closer - but EVERY team wants one! Call any GM in the industry…they’re all trying to find one, develop one - and most fail at it miserably. It would only seem logical that the Twins would like to keep theirs, and like Eddie - keep him around as long as they can to ensure that they have something when that starting pitching comes along and their offense is producing (producing, but probably still not up to your standards). You are the ONLY person I know that ’s not convinced that the Twins did enough to improve on offense (on paper). ST stats are worthless - conjure up anything you want…your wrong, plain and simple. I played baseball at the college level (division 1 South Dakota State University) on a full ride…I’ve bounced around the minors for a year and a half now. I know why a team would love to sign Nathan. Trust me, you’re wrong in your assumptions - opinion - and logic.
Not to mention the Yankees added Giambi as well - seriously…HR’s don’t win WS either!
dayoldbread,
You probably sit in a bar, spitting your chew, scratching your groin, while saying, “Amen” to everything that old Sid says. Well, let me feed you some info… it takes RUNS to WIN games. Players that are very good at generating runs tend to help their team win games. I know this is a tough concept but stick with me.
The next idea is that teams that score more runs than they’re scored upon ALSO win more. As a matter of fact, there are these things called computers that go so far as to *predict* Win/Loss records based upon how good team’s players are at scoring runs and preventing them. Now, here comes the real leap of faith: these, “computers” use things called, “statistics” for their predictions. Computers!!!! Without even watching a game or spitting some chaw!!! Computers!!! It’s T3: Rise of the Machines, right?
They’re even taking over baseball front offices!!! Ye gods; get the pitchforks! There was even a book called, “Moneyball” that talked about these things! Fortunately, it was totally debunked because the Oakland A’s haven’t been able to do well at all the past decade under Billy Beane. So I’m sure noone follows it… or wait! The Red Sox hired Theo Epstein who I don’t think ever played at a Division I baseball school!!!! And then HE hired Bill James, who was just a truck driver who thought about statistics!!!! STATISTICS!!!! They keep coming up!!! Quick, dayoldbread, barricade yourself in your house, cut the phone lines, and don’t let anyone in! They might bring you… stats!!! And maybe they’d even show you how to use them! This threatens your way of life!
You are right that I like HRs, though… to quote Earl Weaver, a true old-school manager, “Team speed?? For Chrissake… and get f—- g–dam little fleas on the bases gettin picked off, tryin to steal, gettin’ thrown out and takin runs away from you. Get them big c—–ers who can hit f—– ball out of the ballpark and you can’t make any g–dam mistakes.”
Oh, and that stat-boy Billy Beane is trying to *trade* his elite closer, Huston Street, right now. What an idiot: too bad he didn’t have your expert D-I experience in the Front Office to tell him that EVERY team is LOOKING for an elite closer and he’d be FOOLISH to trade his away. After all, his is 24 years old and makes $3.3 million. Why would anyone ever take that?
The “closer is overrated” theory must not be highly regarded by the Red Sox. Otherwise, the Sox would not have “wasted” Jon Papelbon at closer when he was one of most promising young STARTING PITCHERS in baseball.
But, what the hell do the Red Sox know about winning championships?
They just won two by flying in the face of a theory which is advocated by stat geeks all over the blogs.
They put Papelbon into the closer role by necessity when their elite closer at the time, Keith Foulke, completely blew up one year. Here was Foulke’s ERAs…
1999: 2.23
2000: 2.97
2001: 2.33
2002: 2.91
2003: 2.09
2004: 2.17
2005: 5.97 (age 32)
2006: 4.39
2007: Out of baseball
2008: Kicking around with the A’s
The Red Sox do adhere to the idea of, “throw a bunch of relievers against the wall and see who sticks” … I bet with the signing of Nathan, the Twins have a more expensive bullpen than the Red Sox do.
Note: Actually, I had it wrong in my list earlier… it wasn’t Papelbon in 2004. It was Foulke. Papelbon’s rookie season was 2005.
Mathew
I also think that closers are overrated. However, I don’t think this was such a bad deal for the Twins for several reasons: The team would not have gone out and signed a big bat or an FA starting pitcher, so I’m not going to worry about who they should have signed instead with the 11 million. The key players that would leave via FA over the next few years are signed, so BS doesn’t have to worry about them leaving because he can’t afford to keep them. Also, given Nathan’s history and the nature of the closer role, I think there is less chance of Nathan being a bust than most other players in his price range.
I’m not saying this contract makes the most fiscal sense, but I don’t see it being a disaster either, so I’m not going to get too worked up over it. While I think closers are overrated, I realize that they are still important, especially the way Gardy (and lots of other managers) handle their pitchers. Nathan is consistently one of the best and that can mean a lot to a young staff.
Mathew,
If closers were so easy to replace, the Sox could have traded for one, developed one, or just sent a washed-up setup man out there.
Instead they wasted a tremendous talented starting pitcher prospect in Jon Papelbon who could have helped them in a “crucial position”.
Obviously they didn’t get your memo about how “closers are overrrated”.
The Red Sox apparently had their heads up their -sses then and still do.
Papelbon can still be restored to the starting rotation but the Sox are stupid AND stubborn. He is still an insignificant and easily replaceable closer, and no plans to convert him.
Someday, someway they may see the light.
TC,
I’m not here to enlighten you. Mathew was nice enough to do it though. If you want to be lazy and in the dark and cling to the mythology that the only way to win the WS is with an elite closer. Feel free.
dayoldbread,
In an earlier post you pointed out that “Soriano hasn’t helped a single team win.” This is obviously true, but it does bring to mind a bit of baseball history.
Soriano hit a tie-breaking HR in the eighth inning of game 7 of the 2001 WS only to see the Yankees loose in the bottom of the ninth on a blown save by Mo Rivera.
Sy,
You’re kind of barking up the wrong tree Sy. The Red Sox are one of the few teams recently who tried a closer by committee. I think they would do that again if the situation warrented.
The Red Sox plan was to put Papelbon back in the rotation, but last year during ST Papelbon decided he was more comfortable as the closer. So, why screw with the kid when that’s what he wants to do and he had(s) done it so well.
G,
“So, why screw with the kid when that’s what he wants to do and he had(s) done it so well.”
The answer is:
You make him do what is BEST FOR THE TEAM. What is BEST FOR THE TEAM is to keep Papelbon at closer because it is a crucial (not overrated)job.
If it was actually overrated, the Sox would have moved him back to the rotation, regardless of where he is comfortable.
Plus Papelbon believes being a closer is crucial for the team.
Otherwise, a competitor like him would request a switch back to the rotation.
Sy:
“If closers were so easy to replace, the Sox could have traded for one, developed one, or just sent a washed-up setup man out there.”
Developed one? You mean like they did with Papelbon?
And as G mentioned, the Red Sox did try to stretch Papelbon back out into a starter. And ultimately, he asked to stay in the closer role. They could’ve forced him into a starting role; they do sign the paychecks, after all. But they wanted him to be happy; they wanted him to be healthy; and he was effective in the role. So they let him stay. But they were auditioning from within for the job. It didn’t hurt his case that last season the Sox had the rotation of: Beckett, Matsuzaka, Schilling, Lester, and Wakefield with Buchholz coming down the pipe.
But this really isn’t about the Sox and Papelbon. It’s about the fungibility of relief pitchers. And if you look at the pitchers who led the league in saves in 2007 that I posted, half of them had pretty awful ERAs for relievers in the year before. And if you look at the closers of the last 10 World Series winners that I posted, most of those guys were pretty mediocre.
Ultimately, it bears to remember that, “the closer” is a modern invention. Historically, there was just a bullpen and you brought in your best reliever whenever the situation warranted it (which some argue baseball teams would be better off returning to today). Realistically, you’d rather your best arm come in when you’re up 1 with 1 out and men on 2nd and 3rd in the 6th rather than have him cool his heels unless you start the 9th with a 3-run lead.
And just to repeat: Joe Nathan has been great the few years. The Twins were lucky to have picked him up. He’s delivered great value to the franchise. But contracts are for the future, not the past. And based upon the probable, not certain, decline of Nathan, and based upon the Twins other needs in their lineup, and based upon the Twins strict budget-consciousness, they would have been better off spending the money elsewhere. If they got something in return for trading Nathan, great. But even just letting him play out this year and sign somewhere else as a free agent would have been better. And that was my opinion in December, that was my opinion in January, that is my opinion now, and that will be my opinion in 2009.
I’m not going to argue the value of a closer. Basbeall somehow managed for decades without one, so it couldn’t have been too crucial.
But, use a different example, because your Papelbon one is terrible. If closer was so crucial they would have left him at closer to begin with, but they wanted him to be a starter. The arm injury is a part of this too.
Failed starters, because of fatigue issues, injury, or lack of ML quality pitches, get converted to relievers and then if they’re good enough get moved to closer.
Its a funny gig, closer, look at what happened to Carmona a couple years back.
mathew,
Fair enough.
We have both read each other’s opinion and I agree to disagree.
I will tolerate this signing, but ultimately I think that a 47 million dollar contract for a closer, for a small market team, is too much. The trade deadline would have brought a lot- in either quantity and/or quality. Neshek would have done fine. The Twins are very deep in pitching- how hard could it be to find one extra reliever in our farm system? I think we could’ve managed just fine.
I agree if your going to spend big money on a pitcher he better be a starter
You don’t need a muscular 7-foot center in the NBA to win a championship. But it sure helps when it’s crunch time. It solves a lot of problems.
As does Nathan. This PARTICULAR Twins team needs Nathan the next couple years because of the peculiarities of its offense and starting staff.
And Neshek and Nathan could not be replaced the next couple years. They each are superb.
If any of Humber/Bass/Perkins/etc start to shine, then you can think of making a replacement for Neshek of of them, and make Neshek the closer, and trade Nathan for the needed 2B or 3B.
Losing Nathan from this particular Twins team would have been demoralizing. And it would take $16M+ to sign him after the season in the era of Hunter/Silva/Santana big money.
They can always trade Nathan
BTW, who cares about # of saves. It’s the conversion rate that counts.
Gardenhire finally showed some intelligence and chose the best position players in the Twins system. It was a good move selecting Gomez for CF–in fact, as the year plays out–it will become evident that Gomez is far superior to any of the other candidates for CF. Also, the selection of Tolbert was excellent, since he is a switch hitter who can play 3B,SS, and 2B. He is a good hitter who can hit for average and get on base alot. Maybe there is hope for Gardenhire as a manager yet. Let hope it doesn’t take him all year to come up with a set lineup and pitching rotation like it did last season.
Of that list, Papelbon and Rivera would be considered, “elite”
You wouldn’t consider Bobby Jenks to be an strong young closer? Nor Troy Percival?
I’ll give you Looper and Kim, as neither has made a name for themselves. However, I’ll argue that Byung-Yung Kim’s inability to effectively close a game cost the Diamondbacks two consecutive wins and nearly cost them the series against New York (was it two straight walk-off homers that year?)
And yeah, Percival isn’t “young”. But to say he and Jenks weren’t/aren’t elite closers…?
i like the signing of joe
This is a bit against the prevailing wisdom in the blog, but I’ve gotta go with matthew, shameless, and others who aren’t aprticularly enamored of the Nathan signing. It’s not that the Twins signed a crummy pitcher (they didn’t), it’s about where you believe a club should spend its money. Assume over the next 4 years Nathan pitches 250 innings for the club. At $45 million, that’s roughly $1 million for every 5 2/3 innings pitched. Now assume Santana pitches 800 innings or so over the same time period. That’s roughly $1 million for every 9 innings pitched. I understand Santana got a longer term contract and consequently represents a much riskier investment, but the point is, Nathan is getting a lot more money per out. I’m not convinced that’s a wise expenditure of funds on a young team with unproven starting pitching. How many leads will Nathan have to protect, anyway?
P.S. The math above is rough and merely meant to illustrate a point.
Troy Percival is a closer, but if you want to call him an elite one then basically you have to call all closers elite.
ERA’s since he began closing duties:
1996: 2.31
1997: 3.46
1998: 3.65
1999: 3.79
2000: 4.50
2001: 2.65
2002: 1.92
2003: 3.47
2004: 2.90
2005: 5.76 (no longer the closer)
A reliever whose ERA bounces around between 3.5 and 4.0 for most of their career is not, “elite.” That’s pretty mediocre for someone who is trusted to get the outs at the end. There’s another level beneath him of, “horrendous” which would be Kim and Borowski, but no, Percival isn’t elite.
I won’t bother reposting Todd Jones’ #s but they’re the same story: generally an ERA around 4.0 and in many years above.
kubel still sucks
how bout k rod or papelbon Mathew
Bobby Jenks is better, but I can’t say that his name pops into my head when someone says, “elite closer.” Names that do…
Rivera
Papelbon
Gagne before his arm problems
K-Rod
Wagner
B.J. Ryan when healthy
Hoffman
Nathan
Putz
You could add other names to that list but then you start getting into the question of what %age of MLB closers you’re going to call elite and what %age of them are mediocre and what %age of them are bad. Chad Cordero has numbers similar to Jenks; is he elite? Saito has better numbers; would he be on the list? Given that there are only 30 MLB teams, you have to draw the line somewhere.
Rivera is to old
Papelbon is elite
Gagne before his arm problems also he was on steroids
K-Rod is elite
Wagner
B.J. Ryan when healthy soso not elite
Hoffman to old now
Nathan quiver cheeks is in the top 4
Putz don’t know enough about him
What are some ERA’s of “elite” closers then for comparison? Not to argue, but because I’m just curious.
It seems like a closer’s ERA is one of those things that could be heavily skewed with one bad outting (say two runs in one attempt)
smoltz when he closed
If Rivera isn’t elite, Hoffman isn’t elite, and B.J. Ryan is soso, then there’s no way that Jenks or Percival could be considered as such. Before Ryan’s injury last year, his ERA in the three years previous were: 1.37, 2.43, and 2.28. Trevor Hoffman has had one year in the last twelve where his ERA was over 3.0. And Rivera has had two years in his entire career, one of which was last year, where his ERA was over 3.0.
So if you want to say they’re not, “elite closers” then fine. But then there’s no way that Jenks or Percival qualify.
Well, I would consider Mariano Rivera elite and here’s been his ERA for his career…
1995: 5.51
1996: 2.09
1997: 1.88
1998: 1.91
1999: 1.83
2000: 2.85
2001: 2.34
2002: 2.74
2003: 1.66
2004: 1.94
2005: 1.38
2006: 1.80
2007: 3.15
I’d say those are pretty good.
Generally, to consider a closer elite I’d want to see an ERA under 2.4 and more than a K per inning… the higher ratio the better.
how bout Eck
gossage - lee smith -
My only question was Mathews mother on crack or heroin when she was pregnant with him? A closer is important becasue the Twins play alot of close games. A bad bullpen can ruin a good teams season. It also tends to be frustrating when a team is up by 3 in the 7th and end up losing half the time becasue the pen cant hold the lead. BTW, regarding Foulke, didnt his arm blow out?
So now that we’ve established, well, exactly nothing…
First point: There was a lot more “at stake” here than just resigning our closer to a huge deal. Santana, Nathan, and Mauer are probably the only three players who are recognizably “elite” (one could argue morneau, but many ‘experts’ don’t even rank him among top 5-10 overall 1B in the league) on our 2007 team. Losing Santana & Nathan, in addition to the “Face of the franchise” Torii Hunter (please don’t anyone try and raise the argument that Hunter was elite… declining range, propensity to k on the high-heat… or the “clutch” gbdp), would have been a huge blow to the fanbase of these Twins.
Signing Nathan made economic sense from the standpoint of showing a willingness to invest in this team. To say we could have spent the money better elsewhere… Perhaps the Morneau/Mauer/Cuddyer signing is a good indication of spending that money elsewhere. Oh yeah, and we traded a stud young pitcher for a guy who is by all accounts going to have a very good, if not great, major league career.
Second point: While an elite closer is not a requisite for winning the world series, eliminating question marks across the diamond is. Teams that have too many holes to fill generally get weeded out during the 162 game grind that is the MLB regular season. If by some chance (or if you’re in the NL Central) a team with a lot of holes makes the playoffs, they’re generally weeded out in the playoffs (or, if you play in AAAA - the national league). By locking up Nathan, the twins eliminated any potential for weakness in our bullpen. We have what most teams covet: bullpen depth.
Point three: The twins will see an improvement hitting the long ball (only 4 guys who hit more than 10 HR’s last year)
2007
Morneau (31)
Hunter (29)
Cuddyer (16)
Kubel (13)
Mauer (7)
Bartlett (5)
White (4)
So our top 7 guys hit 105 HR’s last year.
I don’t know that it’s much of an argument that we’ll hit more with this group:
2008
Morneau
Young
Cuddyer
Mauer
DH
Lamb
Harris
Oh - and if the twins are going to struggle to score runs (which I don’t think will be as big of a problem as it was last year), having a shut-down bullpen to protect those 4-3, 3-2, 2-1 leads is even more important.
you guys see how Manny loafed his way to second on his game winning double. He should have had 3rd easily. Francona was so livid, he pulled Manny for Crisp. That’ll show him
That Manny is in a league of his own
OCF - not to mention that last year Young (in a diff organization) hit:
Season G 162, AB 645, R 65, HR 13, RBI 93, BA .288, OBP, .316, SLG .408 - Put him on last years pace alone, and it looks like this…
2007
Morneau (31)
Hunter (29)
Cuddyer (16)
Kubel (13)
Mauer (7)
Bartlett (5)
White (4)
My prediction for 2008
Morneau (30)
Cuddyer (22)
Young ((19)-2007 hit 16 w/Tampa Bay)
Kubel (14)
Monroe (12)
Harris (12)
Mauer ((12)-career avg is over 
That would put us at 120 HR’s (and I was being slightly modest in my prediction with a couple guys…basing them off of 2007 alone)
Here’s the best part - last year Young drove in 93 runs - add that together with Morneau/Kubel-Monroe(the DH) and Cuddy…they’re going to score more runs hands down! It’s a question of whether or not their starting pitchers will get into the 6th/7th inning to hand the game over to their rock solid bullpen?!?!
It seems like a closer’s ERA is one of those things that could be heavily skewed with one bad outting (say two runs in one attempt)
Absolutely, and the sooner ERA quits getting used as a primary statistic for relievers the better. Looking at strikeout rate, WHIP, and inherited runners scored are considerably more important.
Smoltz’s 2002 season is a perfect example. In his second appearance of the season he had one of those “everything went wrong” outings. He gave up 8 earned runs on 2 walks and 6 hits (two were HR) in 2/3rd of an inning. His end of season ERA was 3.25, without that outing it would have been nearly a full run lower (2.34).
there look, i found a computer and put me some stats on here too! I wonder what Mathew thinks of this…I wonder what he’ll say when this offense hits a few more than I predicted? I wonder what he’ll say then? I got it…he’ll say they’d be a lot better had they gone out and picked up Manny! Maybe even this…the Twins should have found a way to sign A-Rod! haha, man, no matter what anyone says he’s not going to give an inch is he?
and sorry, that’s 121 HR’s - my bad (fat fingers!)
122
It would be great if the Twins finish in the top half of the league in HR. I hate to see national league teams blow us away.
They would hit 123 if that retard Kubel wasn’t in there with his fetal alchohol syndrome
“It would be great if the Twins finish in the top half of the league in HR.”
Why is that? A team can score plenty of runs without HR’s. Last in the league in HR, is no worse than first in the league in HR.
“Last in the league in HR, is no worse than first in the league in HR.”
I am 100% certain of that.
I wouldn,t overstate, our rock-solid bullpen,yet, thay have to prove themselfs every year,,and this year,, well we,ll just wait and see,
true, true, I just want to lead in runs scored and lowest era
It sure would be nice if we could score a guy from first without needing 2 more hits.
Snepp,
Fair point: K-rate, WHIP, and inherited runners scored are important as well, as are percent of saves converted and if you really want to get into it, Ground Ball/Fly Ball ratio. Although when people think that Troy Percival is an elite closer, it’s tough to do nuance. And ERA isn’t so terrible of a metric to use to broadly characterize relievers as to be misleading. Especially when you look at it over the context of a career and not just one year.
dayoldbread,
Delmon’s HRs aren’t a concern: he has some good pop and a good AVG. The concerns are his OBP and his K-rate.
And 121 HR’s is still nothing to scream about. Last year, it would’ve put the Twins in the same position they were, anyway, 29th out of 30. http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/stats/byteam?cat=Overall&sort=706
Now HR’s aren’t the end-all, be-all… you can score plenty of runs taking walks and hitting doubles and you have concerns about park effects and everything else. Really how many runs is what you care about. But it’s still not a good thing to be down that far. And I’m not sure if I’d be proud of projecting to be second-to-last.
jimmybee,
If the Twins led in runs scored and had the lowest ERA they’d be in a pretty good position to win the World Series. Unfortunately, with this lineup they’re going to aspire to get out of the bottom third of runs scored and having lost Johan they should be aiming just to finish in top half in team ERA.
121 HR’s was just a list of our 7 of our players, and that’s being conservative.
If you want to talk about runs scored.. The twins finished near the bottom half in avg, runs, hits, HR, 2b, slg, obp.
Just comparing OPS
Lamb (.820) vs Punto (.562)
Harris (.777) vs Casilla (.516)
Young (.723) vs Rondell White (.556)
Gomez (.592) vs Hunter (.839)
Everett (.599) vs Bartlett (.699)
That’s an average of .702 for the good guys, .634 for 2007 group. That means we should see a 70 point increase in OPS. Not the be-all-end-all, but OBP + Slugging is a pretty good indication of increased runs scored.
Plus, Gomez & Young are going to be studs. This year or next.
“Of that list, Papelbon and Rivera would be considered, “elite” and Papelbon was a rookie the first time the Red Sox won in 2004 so I’m not sure if you’d count him that time. And as discussed, the 2007 Red Sox won because of a number of other players as well, as did the 1998 - 2000 Yankees.
So this idea that, “elite closer” is needed for a World Series is basically a bunch of fluff.”
The Braves were one of the best teams in baseball from the late 80’s to about 2000 and they only won one World Series. The lack of an elite closer during much of that period was a major contributing factor to the Braves continually coming up one or two game short.
OCF - I can tell yer an optimist! I see the potential with what they have - and I’m sure if we compared RBI totals of the guys we have now (either career averages, or 2007 numbers for the newcomers) we’d see that even in that catagory we upgraded. And you are correct, conservative it was. I fully expect both Cuddy and Young to hit over 20 and I would say that the DH should combine for over 30 this year (as opposed to last years meager totals). I would, in a less conservative manner, project more like 135/145 HR’s and about 70-100 more runs batted in. If I had the time I’d go through the numbers, but I don’t…I’m watching Rincon (who, IMO, looks “fat”) serve up a bunch of meatballs!
Good grief, some of you folks are aggravating ….
The Twins didn’t “let” Hunter go to free agency - the whole concept is a contradiction in terms. Hunter’s contract was coming to an end. The Twins had no right or power to force him to sign a new contract to stay in Minnesota. Regardless of the money - and the Angels seriously overpaid for him - it’s pretty friggin’ obvious HE DIDN’T WANT TO BE HERE. He wouldn’t even talk to the Twins at the end.
As for Johan, he conducted himself with far more class than Hunter, but the bottom line was the same - he wanted the max contract. He had every right to ask for it, the Twins had every right to conclude it was more than they could afford. And when it’s all said & done, not a one of you can say Johan would’ve stayed even if the Twins had matched the Mets money.
The Twins made offers the players didn’t accept. The Twins didn’t “let” the players leave, they chose to leave, which was their right.
BD-
Baseball is a business, and it was their right, but we can still call them greedy and complain about it. I think a valid argument can be made that the Twins should have done more to keep them, and they should have been more willing to take less money.
They would hit 123 if that retard Kubel wasn’t in there with his fetal alchohol syndrome
jimmybee, the sooner you figure out you’re the only person who finds these types of posts humorous…the sooner the rest of us will start to respect what you have to say.
They could have kept both players if they were proactive instead of reactive.
Twins learned a valuable lesson when it comes to resigning players. It shows through the extensions they’ve been shelling out
Call Me Stupid,
Right on the button, they should have seen the writing on the wall for Santana in 2006, and offered him a deal. But they don’t negotiate during the season, and Santana got a second Cy Young and he was out of their range.
Torii may have been in our price range last off season, but not after his career year. No chance to match the Angels mega offer
T why are you such a blog nazi. Personal attacks against me and other bloggers is awefull. I do not personally attack you or other bloggers I only say negative things or possitive things regarding the Twins. I will make a valiant effort to be more positive regarding Kubel who in my opinion is highly over rated . I will also not make opinions regarding his fetal alchohol syndrome. Next time I will just say I feel he is overrated. If Craig can become good Craig than I will become good jimmy bee
David,
The Braves also won 14 consecutive division titles over that period. That kind of failure is fine by me.
But still: just blankly asserting, “this team didn’t win because they didn’t have an elite closer” is pretty soft. It’s just as easy for me to say, “the Braves bullpen had nothing to do with them winning ONLY one World Series in fifteen years.”
But I’ll go back to the last 10 World Series winners. Of those 10, only 2 teams (who won 5 of them) had an elite closer and they had lots of other cylinders clicking as well.
If the Twins traded Nathan and put in Neshek, at the end of the year you would be raving how the Twins had another elite closer under their noses all along.
As far as Hunter & Santana are concerned, the Twins did the right thing with Hunter. The Angels will be lucky if he earns half of the money on his contract. Santana might earn his contract, but long-term contracts to pitchers are always risky. If the Twins could have locked him up for more like $12MM - $14MM a year (although I’m not sure if they could’ve) one or two years ago, that would’ve been worth it. As is, the only place they stumbled was by not taking the offers from the Yankees or Red Sox, both of which were superior to what they ended up with.
Mathew Nathan is a great closer and agreed Neshek would do just as well. Neshek croaked at the end of last season. How would we know if he would struggle with the later half of this season. On the SI website it says we signed Nathan only to able to trade him later in the seaon. Does anyone think the Twins just want to see if Neshek can be effective at the end of this seaon before trading Nathan
Also that Braves squad was one with: Smoltz, Glavine, Maddux, McGriff, and Justice. There’s noone on the Twins right now as good as any of them at their positions.
And that’s my point: not that having a good closer is bad, but that the Twins have too many holes to justify not spending the money elsewhere.
The only 2 spots I would want improvement on would be at CF and maybe 1-2 more starting pitchers.
Not 2B? Not 3B? Not SS?
I think Nathan is a great player one of the top 3 in the league at his position but if the Twin’s could have moved Neshek up to closer and took the money from the Nathan contract and kept Santana that may have been a better move to make. I like Nathan alot but I think the contract was a ploy to trade him later
What or who would you suggest at those positions
I don’t think Johan wanted to stay here. I think in part it was the lack of moves to become an elite team (which the Twins have never been known to do), but I think it was also the east-coast exposure. Johan will thrive in the spotlight out there.
For us to invest 20-25% of our payroll into one player is ridiculous. No team has ever won the WS with that type of imbalance (espn.com article some time ago - about Johan. Jayson Stark I think). We’re not a $150 mil payroll team.
I’ve heard a lot of talk about how in the past, managers just brought in the best pitcher suited for the job (prior to “closer” being an actual position). Well, if Neshek is good enough (over the course of a full season, not just the first 50-60%) to be an “elite level” closer, now we have two of them at the back-end of our rotation.
There wasn’t anybody available through free agency that fit the Twins profile for spending. We weren’t going to drop $16 mil/yr on Andrew Jones when we wouldn’t give Torii more than 15. Deservedly so. Neither of them are worth 20% of our payroll.
Discussions about 2B, 3B, SS.
It’s unrealistic, unless you’re in a huge market (or Detroit) to have an offensive masher at every position. So Everett as a gold-glove caliber IF is a solid pickup. He’s not speedy, but has some wheels, and should beat out a couple of hits at the dome he wouldn’t have in Houston.
Mike Lamb, although playing only 40-50% of the time, has consistently proven he can hit ML pitching (3 of last 4 years he’s hit .288 or better, and is a career .281 hitter in 2400 AB’s). Twins fans will be very glad Bill Smith signed him
Brendan Harris will provide the most pop of any 2B since probably Chuck Knoblauch. He’s a huge upgrade over Alexi Casilla.
The Twins are primed for a very fun offensive year. Our bench no longer consists of guys like Tiffee and L-Rod. Although Gomez is going to be inconsistent, especially early, he’s going to have days where we go “this is why we traded him to the Mets.”
If our young pitchers have developed to the point where they can step up and hold their own, this team is going to finish above .500, and will be a trendy pick to head back to the playoffs in 09.
Back end of our bullpen, not rotation. Sorry.
Onecurlyfry after seeing what we got in the Santana sweepstakes would you or anyone else have taken the Phil Hughes trade now
AndrUw Jones would’ve helped the Twins much more at $18MM/yr than Nathan at $14MM/yr. Also he signed a franchise-friendly 2-yr deal and has a career OPS about 80 points higher than Hunter. So more per year, fewer years, and should be higher production… he wouldn’t have been a bad signing.
There’s really no reason for the Twins to be significantly different from the Tigers. Detroit is the 11th largest media market; Minneapolis is the 15th. We’re not talking LA vs. Witchita here. And their 2007 payrolls were $71MM (Twins) vs. $95MM (Tigers). That’s going to go up, certainly, with the additions of Willis and M-Cab, but the Twins new ballpark is going to provide new revenue which (supposedly) is going to be pumped back into the team.
Mike Lamb’s AVG is artificially inflated by basically spending his career in a platoon. Now 32 and having to face pitchers every day, I’d expect that average to drop. Basically, he’s a no-upside player. Brendan Harris is ok, but not much above replacement. And Adam Everett is a hole in the lineup; the last year he hit over .250 was 2004. And shortstop is no longer a weak offensive position. Heck, the Tigers acquired Renteria for forgettable prospects.
As I said, the Twins lineup is too much holes, too few bats. They should have had other priorities than resigning Nathan.
Both the Yankees package with Hughes and the Sox package with either Crisp or Ellsbury were better than what the Twins got.
Mathew I believe the Nathan signing was just a ploy. He is a sign and trade and will be dealt to save money which will not be pumped back into the team with the savings. Also do you think that Hughes was not traded for because he would have eventually cost to much and uncle Carl didn’t want to spend the $$$
We should have seen if we had packaged Santana w/Nathan if we could have gotten Hughes, Kennedy, and Melky
Under that logic, you should never get players who are going to be any good. Because eventually, they’re going to cost money. So…. no. I don’t think that. Besides, it’s contrary to the facts. It’s not that the Twins weren’t requesting Hughes; it’s that they were asking for Hughes AND Kennedy that made the Yankees balk.
In any case, Hughes’ free agency is ways off. I’m pretty sure he pitched enough last year to accrue a year of MLB service time but that would mean it still would be 5 more years before he was a Free Agent. If you’re not making trades on that basis, you should just dissolve your team.
or if we could’ve received Hughes, Kennedy and Matsui
I doubt that really would’ve swayed the Yankees. Nathan wouldn’t have taken the closer’s job away from Rivera so he would’ve been an elite set-up man. Good to have, sure, but worth adding another quality starting pitcher who is cost controlled for another 5-6 years? No. Definitely not.
First, Matsui has a no-trade clause which I doubt he’d waive to come to a rebuilding Twins. Second, it was the combination of Hughes & Kennedy, not Hughes & Melky, that made the Yankees not take the deal. And if I remember right, Hughes was on the table for under a week… the Yankees put him up there then a few days later thought better of it and took him off.
Do you think we should have signed and then traded Santana like we are going to do with Nathan
If the Twins had been able to sign Santana for $12MM - $14MM per, then no, I think they should have signed and kept him.
And it’s not at all clear that the Twins plan is to trade Nathan. That’s just speculation of anxious fans, “If it doesn’t work out, we can just trade him!”
Andruw Jones OPS dropped 170 points last year. I’m not sure the combination of Nathan + Gomez isn’t more valuable than Andruw Jones. If Jones rebounds and has a great year for the Dodgers, perhaps you’d be right. But if not? The twins don’t have $18 mil/yr to gamble with. The reason Jones only got a 2 year deal (remember last season, Boras was throwing out RIDICULOUS figures for what Jones would command in open market) is because nobody would take a flier on Jones for 5-6 years at 20 mil per.
Before deciding which trade would have been better for the twins, I guess I’d like to see how these prospects pan out. Far too many “cant miss” prospects do just that. If the Twins would have given up Michael Restovich in the early part of this decade, we would have landed Soriano (the first time around… if I’m wrong about that, sorry. I believe it was Soriano, but even if not, I know holding on to him is why TR didn’t land somebody big).
I’m not arguing with you Mathew on the principal of the thing. I’m simply phrasing my arguments around the framework that the twins ownership has placed upon the environment. Joe Nathan’s contract is not such that he’s not tradable. In fact, for 12 mil per, he’s going to be a bargain for an “elite” closer in 2008-2010, assuming he maintains that status.
Yes the Twins should have signed Hunter & Santana to extensions before last season. They didn’t, and those guys left. They learned their lesson this time around, and now have a great nucleus of young talent. Another year of development, a key signing or two, and we’ll be competing for a WS in 2010, which is what the plan has been all along.
The significant reason why the twins are different than the Tigers is the fact that Carl Pohlad is behind the wheel. The news reported recently that, of the 80 million the Twins had received in revenue sharing (I want to say over the last 5 or so years), only like 5-10 million had been put back into payroll. That’s $15 mil/yr that would have bought us our Andruw Jones caliber player.
Yes, Andruw Jones had a huge drop-off last year. And that’s why the Dodgers were able to sign him to a 2-year deal instead of having to offer a Soriano-esque 6 years and about $110MM. Jones has been a certified masher throughout his career… posting a SLG around .500 for the past 10 years, last year excepted. It may be that at age 31 he fell off a cliff, but I think the Dodgers did well with a calculated gamble.
If you think that Jones has completely broken down, that’s fine. There’s other decent bats to be had. Realistically, if the Twins had been willing to open up the purse strings, they probably could’ve made a run at M-Cab. I realize that cost $$ + prospects, but the Twins could’ve at least been in the running. Ditto for less luminaries such as Renteria, Tejada, and Rolen. Because the reality isn’t in the particulars; it’s in the philosophy. If the Twins keep signing bottom-barrel offensive talent, they’re not going to compete again.
Agree on Pohlad and that’s really what I’m getting at. You can eventually find, via FA or trade, a real slugger if you’re willing to pony up $15MM - $20MM a year. Whether it’s Jones or Soriano or whoever… over a 2-year horizon, you can find a guy you’d be happy with. But if you’re going to set your limit at $3MM/yr, you’re not. And then things won’t change.
While I think the Dodgers WILL have made a great deal, getting one of the best bats in the game at relatively low risk, the twins would never spend $18 mil/yr on a 2 yr deal. It’s the financial reality we live with.
Again though, even with M-Cab. He’s an absolute stud, to be sure. One of the best players in the game over the next 5-7 years. We’d have to put (especially this year) 20-25% towards one player, which doesn’t leave enough to go around to field a competitive team. Even when we get to 2010 and have a 90-100 mil payroll, we’re still going to have to have role players, or young players, step up and have out-of-your-mind seasons (think Rockies, circa 2007) for us to challenge for a WS. We were close in the early part of this decade, and will probably at least return to that in the next few years. But it’s just not realistic to expect to spend that much on players.
While 12 mil/yr for Nathan is higher than I thought he’d get (and eventually turn down) as an offer, our farm system has shown the ability to produce excellent arms for our pen. Having Nathan as the rock to hold down the 9th inning was a shrewd personnel move, if you ask me. It also placates guys like Mauer & Morneau, who don’t want to rebuild. Plus from what I hear, he’s part of the glue that holds the clubhouse together.
In 2010 when our payroll approaches 100 mil, and we have another bat under our belt, our young pitching that has developed to deserve big contracts, having Nathan in the pen will be a good thing, and at a “bargain” price for the market.
Well, continuing with M-Cab… I view it as the Twins have a fixed budget so the options are:
* Nathan + $9MM/yr (Mike Cameron, Kazuo Matsui, Geoff Jenkins, that kind of guy) for the lineup
* Neshek + minor-league guy for setup role + M-Cab
Basically, I think Option B looks better. And that’s everything I’ve been trying to say boiled down.
And I think option A looks better, boiled down.
Obviously Mcab + Neshek > Nathan + anybody.
But when you’re talking about the team the Twins have… A starter makes it through 6 with a lead, we’re going to win the vast majority of those games (our statistics for leading after 6, 7, and 8 respectively are off the charts in the last 3-4 years). With two absolute studs at the end of your bullpen, it takes a lot of pressure off the rest of the ballclub.
In a perfect world, Option B wins. In Twins world, option A is really the only option.
