Monday afternoon musings
Posted on June 23rd, 2008 – 4:00 PMBy La Velle
Is there such a thing as a Milwaukee Surge? The Twins think so.
“The last three years we’ve played poorly going into Milwaukee, and the last three years we’ve come out of Milwaukee playing well.”
The Twins have won eight of their last nine games, starting with a win on June 13 at Miller Park after Ron Gardenhire addressed the team.
In recent years, the Twins have played poorly heading into Milwaukee but turn things around there.
2008: Twins enter Milwaukee losers of 8 of 10 but then win 9 of 11. Gardenhire addresses club.
2007: Twins enter Milwaukee losers of 10 of 13 but then win 10 of 13. Players call a meeting and decide that everyone will cut their hair short. Joe Nathan calls his wife to warn her. Nick Punto worries that his hair won’t grow back.
2006: Twins enter Milwaukee losers of five straight but then win 8 of 12 - this was when Francisco Liriano opened the series with his first win as a starter and Tony Batista hit a grand slam.
2005: Twins enter Milwaukee losers of 9 of 13 but win seven of eight. Two of the losses were against the Brewers though.
What is it about Milwaukee? The Beer? They want to stick it to Bud Selig?
Twins manager Ron Gardenhire guessed it’s because so many Twins fans show up it feels like a home game. “It’s a good atmosphere. They are around the hotel. They are screaming and yelling. It’s one of those things that uplifts you pretty good.”
- Now that Miami is out of the College World Series, the Twins will sit down this week with first-round pick Carlos Gutierrez (RHP) and 26th rounder Adan Severino (OF).
- The Twins also haven’t signed their supplemental round pick, righthander Shooter Hunt, but I haven’t heard about any snags.
- I have heard that it may not look good for the Twins in trying to sign sixth-round pick B.J. Hermsen (RHP) and 29th rounder Joe Loftus, from Holy Angels. It looks like they will attend Oregon State and Vanderbilt, respectively. This happens. Teams take a shot at persuading kids to not go to school and it often doesn’t work out.
- First-round pick Aaron Hicks was 2 for 4 on Sunday for the Twins Gulf Coast League team in his first full game as a pro. His debut game on Saturday was cut short by rain.
That’s all for now. You’ve got Joe C. for the San Diego trip before the Twins return for a three-team homestand.
85 Responses to "Monday afternoon musings"
So who do we talk to about getting a few more road series scheduled every year in Milwaukee?
Isn’t it the case that most of those games coming out of Milwaukee are against the NL?
bison,
“Isn’t it the case that most of those games coming out of Milwaukee are against the NL?”
No. 2006 and 2007 (only other years I checked), we came out of Milwaukee to play several AL series.
JimCrikket,
“So who do we talk to about getting a few more road series scheduled every year in Milwaukee?”
I think we could talk to Bud about that. He would probably be in favor of more Twins fans showing up. Twins and Cubs should be some of his bigger draws. Let’s schedule playing at Milwaukee at the beginning of every month of the season.
I think we should switch leagues with the Cubs. They have the money to go out and buy a high-priced DH, while we play small ball and whoop up on the NL. Livan and Boof will hit bombs, and we let Kubel take over left field and beg the Rays to let us reverse the Garza trade…
It’d be more likely to switch leagues with Milwaukee. Selig wanted an AL team there anyway, when he tried to lure the White Sox in the 70’s. Besides, no city should have two AL teams. Ha. Look at me, talking about this as if it could happen…
Selig is the one that switched Milwaukee to the NL from the AL so he won’t have to pay for a DH…
LEN3: How did you lose out to Joe on the trip to San Diego? Great city and the new park looks amazing! Wish I could have gone there myself. Made it to San Diego last time the Twins played there at “The Murph”. Speaking of San Diego, did anyone pick up Jacque Jones after he got designated by Florida?
Jacque is a free agent and Joe C. has relatives in San Diego.
Anyone else see Johan give up the grand slam to Felix Hernandez?
Man, sure bet that there are some Mets fans pissed about the Santana signing right about now.
Gotta love Livan right now. Much better team oriented results, for far less money.
Yep, Right now, Santana is not doing well as a Met pitcher, team win wise.
Livan is a much better pitcher when it comes to the team concept. Guess individual stats aren’t the only measure of success when it comes to pitching. Kinda like our Twins not being able to hit homers, but yet are sitting pretty when it comes to runs scored.
Gotta love it when Santana’s replacement seems to be better as a team player than Santana was. Guess all that griping and me-first attitude doesn’t wash in New York either.
Um, wins are very out of Santana’s control. The “closer” has blown three saves, and I think he’s lost several games where he gave up 2 or less runs.
Santana has pitched pretty well but his Ks are way down and he is still giving up a ton of gopher balls but I chuckled when I saw he served up a grand slam to a pitcher.
mike
he lost to atlanta when he gave up 1 run over 7 innings.
when santana’s replacement is on pace to give up a MLB record number of hits and ERA over 5, its really not the time to talk him up as a “team player” and talk down Santana.
and on the team concept, of the 5 runs that Santana gave up, only one was earned. i will say that with the management mess, firing of the coaches, poor run support, bad bullpen, bad defense behind him Santana might miss MN more than he’s will to admit.
i would bet santana and silva would come back in a heartbeat….they didnt realize how well they had it in minnesota and its not always greener somewhere else…minny is not a bad place to be for many reasons…
Livan is 8-4. By the end of June last year Santana was 9-6. I’d take Livan with the extra start left in June at a third of the cost, thank you.
If the team loses, even if the pitcher pitched a fabulous game, it still counts as a loss right?
If the pitcher pitches like Livan, and the team wins, does that then count as a loss?
As far as I ever knew, a win, is a win. A loss is a loss. When it comes to the bottom line, what pitcher has won more games for his team. What pitcher has lost more games for his team.
Bottom line, what team has had a better won-loss percentage while said pitcher was pitching???????
If you say Santana, you are delusional. Sanatana is a better pitcher, but as we all can remember, better pitching doesn’t always equal wins.
In Nolan Ryans best era years, he often had a losing record, while pitchers on his team with much worse era’s had winning records.
Didn’t mean that Nolan Ryan was a bad pitcher, just meant that when he pitched, his team didn’t have the same success that the team did when other lesser pitchers pitched.
LEN3 stated that the Twins have played well when Gardy has dressed them down in beertown the last 4 years.IMO,that’s the manager’s job!He can’t swing the bats or throw the ball over the plate for the lads! Maybe he’s not as bad as Beneke and the rest of that crew say he is!
I wonder why pitchers like Santana have such poor run support? Does it have anything to do with their trying for strikeouts instead of the ball being put into play for the fielder to work for them.
Does a player feel more “into” the game when a contact pitcher is throwning than a player that stands motionless in the outfield during the preformance of a strikeout pitcher? Seems that many stikeout pitchers often have great era’s but still end up with poor won-loss records.
Maybe the players in the field become complacent when it comes to batting as well? Maybe they just don’t like playing behind that type of pitcher. Maybe that pitcher just plain rubs them the wrong way, constantly striving for the individual stats instead of worring about the all-important win instead.
Run support is all pure luck…
here is the current MLB rankings of pitchers based on run support
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/pitching?sort=runSupportAvg&split=0&league=mlb&season=2008&seasonType=2&type=pitch3&ageMin=17&ageMax=51&hand=a&pos=all&minip=40&qual=false
me too,
I hear you. But, I don’t think Santana or Silva are at all worried about not winning this year as much as they might have in MN. They have all that extra cash. That’s what they wanted. That’s what they got. We’ve moved on. So have they. Too bad. We liked Johann when he was here. He is a great pitcher. But, that era is over. Now, we got some new guys to follow.
Me Too,
I’m not sure where you’re going with this Santana vs Livan comparison. There IS no comparison. It’s a statistical anomaly.
You’re saying you only care about the results. But if you want to be fair and say that Livan is a CERTAIN kind of teamate (and not just a different quality pitcher) and that Johan is DIFFERENT kind of team player based on their W-L totals, you need to compare more than just 2 and half months!!
here’s the last few years for comparison instead:
Livan Johan
2004 11-15 20-6
2005 15-10 16-7
2006 13-13 19-6
2007 11-11 15-13
2008 8-4 7-5
So clearly, based on the above, what would you conclude? that Livan had cared less about the “team concept” until the last 2 1/2 months and that currently Santana is the better teamate????? come on….
“I wonder why pitchers like Santana have such poor run support?”
i think it is because Johan always draws the other teams ace. thinking of it another way, whenever the other teams ace faced the Twins, they should wonder “how come we cant get our ace enough run support?” (ANSWER: “because we’re facing Johan Freaking Santana!!!”) 
but i think maybe the team does let up a bit too thinking they dont need as many runs. but with that kind of psycho-babble we could say that maybe the opposing pitcher knows he’s facing Johan Freaking Santana and he should try harder too…. it’s unknowable in the end.
oops, my table got jumbled! tried reformatting:
………Livan Johan
2004 …11-15 .. 20-6
2005 …15-10 .. 16-7
2006 …13-13 .. 19-6
2007 …11-11 .. 15-13
2008 … 8-4 .. 7-5
danimals, I wasn’t referring to their individual records. I was referring to their “team” records. Livan has a better team record this year than Santana, for that matter, Livan has a better team record at this point than Santana did last year. Also, the great Santana is actually 7-6 right now, compared to 7-5 as you referanced. BTW, what does the past really have to do with this year at this point anyway? Are you able to put 3 or 4 more games in the win column because he was a good pitcher last year?
Does it matter at all actually? I don’t think last years results have any bearing whatsoever when comparing a pitchers value to a team “this” year, do you?
I still feel a win is a win, is a win. If you think that Santana’s performance deserves more credit even though he lost, so be it, but guess what, he still lost, didn’t he? Last I checked, a team is better off with a win than a loss. If you feel differently, well, go ahead, I don’t care, but for me, I would rather get the W with a mediocre pitching performance than a L with a great one any day of the week.
If you are comparing Livan to Santana in a category as poorly corelated to pitching performance as are wins and losses, it is senseless.
And 5-6 years down the line, when Santana is still winning games for the Mets and Livan has long since left the Twins with shell-shock, then even that senseless comparison will favor Johan.
The only factor favoring the Twins (and Livan) is NOW, and will be THEN — MONEY SAVED.
One more thing, before you tune me out, last I checked, managers were getting fired because baseball was a results oriented business. So, it would make sense that the result is more important that the process it took to get there in who got the win, and how.
So, in effect, in the results oriented business that is baseball, Livan is a better pitcher than Santana. If you deny that, you obviously don’t understand what the end result is that a team wants too win, not just put up good individual stats. Good stats always don’t equal a good record obviously.
Me too,
Next year when Livan is gone and Santana is winning games for the Mets, how will you evaluate the Livan replacing Johan comparison?
But always remember, the Twins saved $121 million.
THATS the great equalizer.
sane, you are right, it might be poorly correlated, but it is still correlated. In this case, it may be statically unusual, to say the least, but under the circumstances, I don’t see how the Twins could possibly be happier. They signed a guy to be an innings eater, and he has done much, much better. When Livan goes on to his payday after this year, I will be happy for him. He put up a good season so far for the Twins, helped them get past some devastating injuries to the staff, and at a very reasonable salary to boot.
I just love comparing the results that Santana has been getting with the Mets to what Livan has been getting with the Twins, since Santana pretty much forced his way out, and a Prima Donna doesn’t sit well in my mind. I guess you can say that I kind of revel in his misfortune, if anyone that makes that kind of money can be considered misfortunate. Anyway, at this point, the team is doing very well without him, has the money saved by not having him. Signed a low-cost alternate to him, and gotten better results from the alternate than he has gotten with the Mets.
The Twins also recieved a promising centerfielder for him, along with some pitching prospects.
Basically, I am happy, and I could care less what Santana’s ERA is, especially when I look further to the right and see that big, bold L in the win loss column next to his name and not next to Livan’s:)
Easy at that point, look at who wouldn’t be with the Twins at that point, and then compare those players value to the club compared to one pitcher, who may or may not be around .500 at that point. No matter what, I was more than happy to have Santana finish his career a Twin, but since he demanded out, well, let him enjoy what he has coming to him, especially financially.
He is a great pitcher, that much I will never deny, but at this point, Livan is doing very well in his stead, and as a Twins fan (not a Livan fan) I must say, that is all that matters.
Me Too,
I think my point was that you need more than a 2 or 3 month spread to determine which pitcher has a better chance of giving you a win. Fine, even if you want to stay in the “here and now” instead of the last 4 years - you realize that last year Livan was not the number one pitcher in AZ? maybe not even #2? if he had the same draw as Webb, what would his record have been? so far this year he’s got a winning record, but the AL will figure him out soon, and over time the other teams #1 will win more than they’ll lose.
Me Too, since you’re making everyone pull their hair out, i’m challenging you to answer the following. let’s play a thought game:
pretend we’re playing only every 5 days and each day it’s Twins against Mets. and every game it’s Livan against Johan. After 32 games what would the Twins record be?? my guess is 8-24. what’s yours? Be honest!!!
Well, honestly, considering what Santanta did last year for the Twins, and so far for the Mets, I would say it would be really hard to figure. Who would he be pitching for? If it would be the Yankees with the Twins success against them being what it is, I am sure he would fare very, very well (10-22). If it is a Central team, probably not so good (25-7) considering the Twins are leading the Central for run scoring. Any West team this year, don’t honestly know what to say, probably abit below .500.
BTW, if it was the Met’s versus the Twins, I honestly think the Twins stack up very well against their team. .500 wouldn’t be to hard to fathom, considering the year that the Mets have put together so far, compared to the season that the Twins have.
Listened/Watched the Twins/D-backs broadcasts this past weekend on FSN Arizona. Lots of compliments toward the Twins organization. They also referred to Livan’s time with the D-Backs and what a mentor he was to the young Latin players on the team (a point we have covered earlier this season as regards his secondary role with the Twins). Sans Livan and Tony Clark, the D-backs look awfully young and inexperienced, particularly when older players like Randy Johnson are struggling. Sometimes older roster players exert an influence not necessarily found in statistical analysis. Just an observation.
“2005: Twins enter Milwaukee losers of 9 of 13 but win seven of eight. Two of the losses were against the Brewers though.”
Huh? How could you win 7 of 8 but have two losses?
Anyway, I personally don’t give wins and losses much attention. (At least for starters). A pitcher can’t control his offense (I guess he can a little bit in the NL, but still). ERA is the biggest stat for a pitcher. And wasn’t part of Santana wanting out of Minnesota because of low run support? So much for that I guess. Actually since he wanted out soooo badly, I’m amused by it.
————————————
IF I were Bud Selig, here is what I would do: Take one team from NL- maybe Milwaukee, but doesn’t matter much- and put them in the AL. That way there are 15 teams in each league, instead of 14 and 16. Then, instead of having a designated “month” of interleague play, you’d have interleague play going on all year long. One series- all the time. Teams would sort of rotate all year long. You would still have close to the number of IL series that you do now, but it would be going all year long. I hope I explained well enough. I realize that it’s my idea, but I have to say that I like it.
Any thoughts???
Am I the only one who was provoked by this at the end of the article?
Teams take a shot at persuading kids to not go to school and it often doesn’t work out.
Well, Santana is a much, much better pitcher, but one thing is for sure, the Twins are in good shape at this point.
The Twins are hitting well, the starters have actually played well since Milwalkee, and they are hopefully going to continue at a similar pace for abit yet.
Once the young guns are ready to go, Livan is gone.
Livan doesn’t equal Santana, but for that matter, Santana doesn’t equal Santana anymore either, or so it would seem.
Santana has a 2.93 ERA so far, how is that bad?
“Anyone else see Johan give up the grand slam to Felix Hernandez?”
Boy, if Willie Randolph still had a job down there…that would’ve done it for sure.
So, let’s hope that the Mets become sellers, and we can maybe toss them a few bones (and hope they eat some salary) to get Johan back.
Nah, I’m just kidding. But boy, could you imagine the reactions here if Santana had give up a Salami to a pitcher? Boy…they’d start to regret wanting to watch his ‘08 Farewell Tour.
The Twins winning streak will end when Gardenhire brings Punto back to the lineup.
Thanks for pointing that out tommy…or is it herb?
Now feel free to go back into your cave while us grownups talk baseball.
“Am I the only one who was provoked by this at the end of the article?
Teams take a shot at persuading kids to not go to school and it often doesn’t work out.
Probably. I’m a huge supporter of school, but if someone offered me millions, I’d take the money and if I failed in BB (or even succeeded) I could always go later. Now, if that number dropped to less than $500K, I’m not sure what I’d do.
Might want to rethink the names of your posts. Who the hell muses? I’d rather not think of you as a muser.
T says:
June 24th, 2008 at 8:04 am
Thanks for pointing that out tommy…or is it herb?
Now feel free to go back into your cave while us grownups talk baseball
Thank’s T Herb is a baboons arse. Wooooooooooooh!!!!! The Nature boy says you lick baseballs Herb Wooooooh!!!!!
Nick Punto sucks
So why is it that since they started interleague play the AL has pretty much dominated the NL? You would think that the NL would always have the advantage especially at home. If the Twins had been in the NL the last 4 years i think they could have won at least 2 maybe 3 pennants.
We need to take attendance on the blogs during winning streaks and losing streaks.
If we corelate wins and losses with whoever posts, we can categorize commenters as:
1) Regulars
2) Front Runners - Bandwagoners
3) Whiners, bitchers and haters.
4) Psychopaths
Then, each category could get their own blog and we could read only the comments that match our own current mood swings.
All good stuff.
Metoo, others - W/L record for pitchers is close to meaningless without a number of correlating statistics. QS, WHIP,BAA and ERA all take precedence over W/L when measuring the quality of any pitcher. W/L is a perfect measure of overall team quality, of course. It’s just a poor measure for a pitcher.
sane, I think you may have an overlap issue with Groups #1 and 4. 
T,
“sane, I think you may have an overlap issue with Groups #1 and 4″
You are right.
I also should suggest an alternate name for “regulars”.
How about “jobless”?
Dean, how can the pitchers w/l record possibly be considered meaningless? If anything, it is the only thing that actually matters in the results oriented business that is baseball. Let’s say you have 2 pitchers. One has a 3.24 era, 1.24 whip, .255 bba, but is only 10-18, team record of 14-18.
The second has a 4.00 era, 1.34 whip, .274 bba, but is 18-10, team record of 20-12. Which pitcher is having the better season? If you said pitcher one, well, it seems all you care about are individual stats, and could care less about the team concept.
Which pitcher finished with the most team wins, the one with the best stats, or the one with the most wins?
Obviously, stats help, but the only one that REALLY matters at the end of the day is the W does it not? If you don’t care about getting the W, what possible relevance does having the best pitcher have anyway? If the W doesn’t matter, why even pay to have a pitcher out there, just put a juggs machine out there and let the other team hit batting practice against you all day. If you don’t care about the W, why even bother playing the game at all? In my mind, I would rather have the W anyday than to get the moral victory of “he pitched great”, or as Gardy would say, “He battled his tail off”.
Sorry, but to me, a win is a win, is a win. If you feel that a great pitched loss is a “win”, well, I feel sorry for you.
If you were a team like the Yankees and needed a stater, would you rather trade for Livan or Johan? As Sane has already pointed out, the only advantage to Livan is the $$$.
Would your answer be different if all you needed was a starter?
“If you said pitcher one, well, it seems all you care about are individual stats, and could care less about the team concept.”
Kruk? That you?
The problem with tagging W/L to the pitcher exclusively is that the pitcher can only control how many runs are given up, he has no control over how many his offense gives him.
If Livan Hernandez gives up 20 runs over 5 innings and wins it 21-20…are you honestly telling me that his win is more important than Johan, who gave up 2 runs over 7 and lost 2-0?
“If you were a team like the Yankees and needed a stater, would you rather trade for Livan or Johan?”
It would take far less to pry Johan away from the Mets than it would Livan from the Twins. Not to mention Livan’s contract is only thorugh this year…which means regardless of how it goes, they’re not tied to him once 2008 is over.
The Twins suffer from the Punto jinx. He is back on the roster and soon to be in the starting lineup. Gardenhire’s habitual affection for Punto puts the entire team’s fortunes at risk and guarentees bigger numbers in the loss column.
Toby G:
Does it make any kind of sense to assign the pitcher 100% of the credit for a win or 100% of the blame for a loss when clearly he’s only responsible for a small fraction of such a blunt measurement of success or failure?
The pitcher doesn’t control run support, he doesn’t control defense, he doesn’t control what park he pitches in, he doesn’t control the quality of the opponent. It’s more effective to assess players based on factors within their control, so when looking at statistics to assess probably future performance you want numbers that are as free as possible of conditions beyond the player’s control.
What happened in yesterday’s game only matters to the extent that it informs decisions about how to maximize your chances of winning tomorrow. If you want the best chance of winning tomorrow you take the first guy.
Even T is giving the pitcher too much credit. They don’t control how many runs are given up. (defense, park factor, opponent, etc.)
Dang, this has gotten abit out of control.
I NEVER stated that Livan is a better pitcher, heck, I would love to still have Santana as a Twin.
The fact that he forced his way out of Minny has allowed me to kinda revel in his current state of affairs with the Mets.
He basically gave the Twins the middle finger after they failed to improve the team at the Trading deadline. He made his mind up that the Twins were never going to make anything of themselves, so he wanted out. He was offered a HUGE contract to stay with the Twins, but turned it down.
New York wanted him, signed him to a huge contract, and right now, aren’t getting nearly the results from him that they paid for. Sure, his stats are pretty dang good, but hey, they just canned their manager for EXACTLY the same problem that he has had. He is having problems WINNING.
In the end, yes, I would have LOVED to have him here, but since he decided he didn’t want to be here, guess that point is moot. As it is, the Twins got a cheaper alternative, that has had better results. The best part is, those better resluts are mainly due to MUCH better run support. Man, gotta love the way that Karma can be so fickle.
NY fired their skipper since the team wasn’t performing up to expections, but yet, their ACE pitcher is hardly performed up to their expectations either.
Livan has had better results up to this point of the season, in the only stat that actually counts in standings, the w-l column. End of Story.
First, let me be clear that I would take Santana in less than a heart beat over Livan (contract payment being someone else’s responsibility of course), as I think most breathing people would.
But, I sort of get the argument that “me too” was making and Toby’s above.
Let me illustrate with extreme exaggeration.
Hitter A has a .400 BA, 80 HRs, 150 RBI’s, and zero GWRBIs in 100 chances for the year. His team misses the playoffs by one game.
Hitter B has a .250 BA, 2 HRs, 50 RBI’s, and 50 GWRBIs in 100 chances for the year (the only runs he knocked in were game winners). His team makes the playoffs by one game.
Clearly Hitter A is the better player. But, Hitter B was much more successful at helping his team get to the playoffs and thus “more valuable” to the team.
Who do you want on your team next year? Hitter A, of course, cause we think this year was an anomaly. But, makes you wonder a little bit.
All those intangibles can’t be measured with statistics. Bottom line, I am still willing to send Livan to the Mets for Santana, but I get the point (I think) of the contrarian view above.
sane,
I’ve been reading La Velle’s and Joe’s blog since I moved back from the east coast in Feb. I don’t usually post, just read and smile…but your comment “How about “jobless”?” just hit the mark and I had to become a “commenter”. Well said on your part, I’m really going to miss this mandatory reading when I go back to work next week (with school being done). Keep it up.
It’s easy to understand and delicious and enticing appeal of player B in Carlos G’s example but it also should be too difficult to grasp the fact that he’s really an illusion of luck and survivorship bias.
Hey, Carlos, I would take Santana too. Never, ever said that I wouldn’t.
Fact is, he is gone. He left for the supposed greener pastures of the Big Apple.
Now, he is having problems winning games for his team, kinda like the problems he had winning with the Twins last year.
Nothing wrong with deriving pleasure from the fact that the cheaper alternative actually has a better record.
This is pretty much all I was doing, and people kept thinking I was trying to say that Livan was a better pitcher. Never said it, never will, but I would love to see Livan turn this season into a contract-making performance, since that performance was done to the Twins benefit too.
Winning has a tendency to hide problems, and in this case is sure does. Livan is rife with problems, high BBA, very high WHIP, very high ERA. But at the end of the day, he still got the team win.
Can,
Thanks.
Carlos
I understand the argument that Livan has made a bigger difference to the Twins than Johan has to the Mets, but your example doesn’t work because you are talking about a player who fails when the game is on the line (0 GWRBI) rather than a player who has good stats but underperforming teammates (low run support, blown saves).
If someone could make a case that there was some reason that Livan gets more run support, I’d be very interested in hearing it. But this whole argument kind of reminds me of the “Mauer-power” debate.
As an aside, I saw a stat (somewhere) that measured the number of wins a player adds to his team. I don’t know where the stat comes from or how it is determined, but Livan didn’t come out too well. (I think he was right around zero, meaning no real impact one way or the other.)
Me too
My posts were more in response to whoever it was who suggested that I/we don’t get the team concept and that we don’t uderstand that a win is better than a loss.
Me Too
I understood what you were saying when we talked about this yesterday but just remember when your making comments on this blog to always have a disclaimer of some sort or these hounds will tear you apart.
For the record as great a player as Barry Bonds was i would have never liked him as a Twin. Talk about an A player who never won anything.
baseball prospectus WXRL (expected wins above replacement level) Livan = 0.000 through 06/23.
In other words we’re getting from him what we could reasonably expect to get from the best unemployed, un-injured pitcher not in the league today.
“A player who never won anything”
But, was he the cause of the losing?
Was he a factor in the losing?
Was he independent of the losing?
Was the losing done in spite of him?
Try to quantify that.
saam,
I completely agree with everything you wrote.
I put the “run support” issue into the category of inexplicable. Maybe Livan has a calming influence on his teammates. Maybe every one gets tense around Johann. Probably neither of the above. No way to know for sure.
As I said, I will take Johan and hitter A. But, I do wonder about the intangibles of Livan and hitter B to result in inexplicable wins.
It’s the vests.
“wally/herb/tommy says: …”
sane, I think we have a new category:
“5) Schizophrenics”
Though to be honest, I think that category would be artifically inflated…
BC, I guess I should have put the disclaimer in there that I wasn’t saying that Livan was a BETTER pitcher. Guess I should know better by now. Anyway, point taken.
BTW, bison, the WXRL is W-R-O-N-G. There is no way that he is a 0 when he currently leads the team in wins, so to say that any, and I mean that the best unemployed pitcher would have a better record is ludicrous, since nobody on the team does, and last I checked, they are all employed as pitchers too. That is the problem with stats, they never can tell the complete story.
Great starting point, great referance point, but not the end-all, be-all that some make them out to be.
“doesn’t work because you are talking about a player who fails when the game is on the line (0 GWRBI)”
What if Hitter A is the guy who hits before Hitter B? Thusly, hitter A (who never knocks in the winning run) is the guy knocked in by hitter B (the guy who always knocks in the winning run)
That’s why “RBI” can be biased stat at time. Think of it this way, if Morneau and Cuddyer do their jobs…Kubel rarely comes up with runners on.
Meanwhile, if Gomez and Casilla do their jobs, Mauer and Morneau could be robbing all the RBI chances away from Cuddyer.
If two hitters in a lineup have 20 HRs and one has 40 RBI and the other has 20…who’s the better hitter?
Me Too:
Do you move all your 401(k) money to the fund with the best prior period performance, too?
A: Whichever one isn’t Joe Mauer.
T,
“sane, I think we have a new category:
“5) Schizophrenics”
OR, one person may have multiple entries in any of the four existing categories.
Bison, that’s not funny. There are people out there that do follow the money, and actually get burned pretty bad doing so.
You’re 100% correct. It’s not funny in the least.
T,
Just to clarify…
In my exaggeration example, both Hitter A and B had 100 chances to knock in the GWRBI and they are on different teams. Hitter A failed all 100 chances and Hitter B succeeded 50 times.
sane if your not part of the solution your part of the problem. If you want i could give you a long list of great pro athletes whom i consider to be either winners or losers.
Bison, you know what, you may be on to something. Livan is the only pitcher that I can remember that seems to prefer the vests. Maybe, just maybe it allows the players to be free swingers
Disclaimer, I am not in any way insinuating that a uniform has any effect whatsoever on a teams performance. This was only said in jest.
Lol Me Too
Now your getting it i’m going to add one of those to all my posts from now on as well.
Hitter A has a .400 BA, 80 HRs, 150 RBI’s, and zero GWRBIs in 100 chances for the year. His team misses the playoffs by one game.
Hitter B has a .250 BA, 2 HRs, 50 RBI’s, and 50 GWRBIs in 100 chances for the year (the only runs he knocked in were game winners). His team makes the playoffs by one game.
Clearly Hitter A is the better player. But, Hitter B was much more successful at helping his team get to the playoffs and thus “more valuable” to the team.
Who do you want on your team next year? Hitter A, of course, cause we think this year was an anomaly. But, makes you wonder a little bit.
Hitter A is easily more valuable. If player B didn’t stink to high hell in 90% of his at-bats the team wouldn’t need him in “game winning” situations, they would already be ahead. You can’t punish Player A for being on a team full of little leaguers who suck.
Player A put you in position to win.
Player B put you in position to lose.
Check out some more Twins talk and extended interviews from Buscher, Bass and Bonser during their day off at Kent Hrbek’s Bass Fishing Classic. It’s all on “Sports on Demand” on myfox9.com:
http://media.myfoxtwincities.com/livestream/webcast/archive.htm
Player A put you in position to win.
Player B put you in position to lose.
Player A’s team didn’t get to the playoffs. Player B’s team did.
I like watching my team in the playoffs.
Tough call, but if it meant the difference between playoffs or not…I gotta go with a team full of player B’s and every year in the playoffs versus a team full of player A’s and not making any playoffs.
(Again. I like player A better, but even more, I like players getting us to playoffs).
Santana is gone! And with all the problems he had here and now it looks like he is having them there. Just be glad the Mets will find out soon enough as well. And remember you people, its the Mets that have to pay him regardless of how he pitches for the rest of his career….
