Twins postgame: More Nathan in the eighth.
Posted on August 6th, 2008 – 1:44 AMBy La Velle
Whew! I wrote four different stories as the game twisted and turned during the final innings. I hope I made sense in the paper tomorrow (I know Ken The Star Tribune Copy Editor has my back!)
I also wrote a final gamer that will put published (online only) sometime during the next half hour.
The one thing I wanted to get into is how Joe Nathan will be used the rest of the season. For those of you who have been clamoring for Nathan in the eighth, expect to see more of him earlier in games. Twins manager Ron Gardenhire seems to be at wits end with the late-inning work of some of his relievers. And Matt Guerrier’s arm is going to fall off if he keeps getting run out there.
He tried to get five outs out of Nathan on Tuesday night but it didn’t work out. But there will be more opportunities.
“`I’ll take my chances with Nathan,” Gardenhire said after the game. “We’re going to have to be able to do those things. We’re struggling. Nathan is going to have to come in and get some outs in the eighth. That’s the way it is going to be from here on out.”
I know many of you wanted to see this earlier in the season, but I’m going to give Gardy a break here. You start piling up the two-inning saves early in the season and you’re risking not having Nathan strong down the stretch. Now that it’s August, Gardenhire can lean on Nathan knowing he can handle the load from here on out. I know other closers have been used for more than one inning - I think Mariano Rivera is simply genetically engineered for such duty.
Ultimately, this in an indictment on the Twins for not adding another relief option before the July 31 trade deadline. I’m sure they tried. It’s going to be hard to swing a deal now for someone good.
Note: Not that I’m ignoring it, but it looks like I got bad info on Livan Hernandez clearing waivers. The Rockies appear to have won the claim. Sorry about that. I was told tonight not to expect anyone in return who can help the major league club.
110 Responses to "Twins postgame: More Nathan in the eighth."
How about Matt Herges or Luis Vizcaino? They surely both cleared waivers!
To clarify, LVENIII, I always have your back — but I was designing the Twins pages tonight, rather than editing (the moniker should be Ken the Star Tribune layout editor). The much-despised White Sox (and Bears) fan Mr. Shirts the Star Tribune copy editor had your back tonight when it came to editing Twins copy.
Sugar Bear appreciates the help from Mr. Shirts.
And Mr. Shirts was quite pleased with how the White Sox-Tigers game turned out. Jerk.
Can I just ask why a deal did not get done to get some relief pitching???
Hey Major League Baseball teams! Do you have a problem? Just play the Twins. Cures what ails ya!
Seriously. The Mariners are BAD. You’d never know it playing the Twins, but trust me, they’re bad. There is no excuse good enough that might even be considered to be a possibly good enough excuse. (Try to make sense of that).
I’m actually very excited for the Twins and like their chances- next year. A year of experience for many youngsters. And the FO might actually make them really good this off-season. But we’ll save that for when they lose in the first round.
You have to consistantly beat the bad teams. Mission failed with the Mariners. They can still salvage this if they win 6 of the last 7 games with them. They almost have to. It figures that we get into first place for a day, just to go right back. We’ll be in first place on the last day of the season, but it might take until the last day to get there (again).
**The Twins should have made some kind of trade**
I seriously want to just scream down the halls of the Dome waiving a big “I Told You So” flag.
Nathan in the 8th != guarantee. But it’s good to see Gardy trying anyway.
And yes, I’d much rather prefer Gardy use him sparringly leading up to the “home stretch” of the season so that he’s fresh and ready to go for tight situations from here on out.
If Ibanez comes up today and the bases aren’t loaded, I expect a 4 pitch walk. That guy is killing the Twins this series.
LVENIII,
Two questions:
(1) Don’t we have a pretty good reliever in Rochester we could call up? Like chicken-soup it can’t hurt us can it?
(2) Could our pre-Nathan reliever actually be sitting in the rotation? I have no suggestions as to who, I’m just trying to look at all the options.
(2a) I know Boof may be the Punto of the pitching corp to some, but do we bring Bonser back into the rotation? He’s had lots of rest and he wasn’t all bad in the early going . . . maybe he’s mentally ready now to not let the team down.
O.K., three questions. : )
Someone better check Ulger’s arm - I’ve never seen so many guys held at third.
Gardy needs to have a chat with Bonser. The guy’s attitude is horrible as made apparant by his body language. He has the best stuff in the bullpen next to Nathan and could essentially shore up those problems if he stopped sulking and embraced his role. A little confidence from Gardy using him in later innings might help - not like anyone else is effective currently.
“Don’t we have a pretty good reliever in Rochester we could call up?”
No
We have some decent arms in A, and AA but Bill Smith is too afraid to move guys up. Rochester has NOTHING. Bill Smith has destroyed that proud franchise and it is now a warehouse for retread pitchers. Bobby Kockery is the only guy I can think of and he is the opposite of lights out.
All the folks who clamor to fire Gardy need to start pointing their fingers at Bill Smith. I can’t believe he could not get a bullpen arm…terrible.
“Could our pre-Nathan reliever actually be sitting in the rotation?”
No, none of our starters have the power pitches to be a solid reliever. And to make matters worse, we have three guys Berslow Bass and Boof who can’t be counted on.
Boof
Our starters are not the problem. Our problem is the bullpen.
Bill Smith failed at the deadline to get an arm in the Pen. And that is why we lost 2 games in Seattle.
GophersWinRoseBowl,
Wow, Brewster’s kool-aid must be laced with something good. Boof is not the answer for the rotation, he the answer for the waiver wire. He can’t be trusted, he is a younger version of Livan with a little more zip on his fastball. As for AAA, Korecky was up earlier in the year and was ok, nothing to get excited about. Otherwise there are the guys from the Santana deal and maybe Danny Graves. We just missed out on getting someone at the deadline and will now probably have to suffer for it for the rest of the year.
Someone better check Ulger’s arm - I’ve never seen so many guys held at third.
As demonstrated by Monday’s game, Morneau doesn’t have the speed to risk sending him in that situation. He’s got the power to knock the guy over, but do you WANT the 3rd out at home.
Wouldn’t be surprised if Ulger was also a little gunshy after sending Morneau to his doom on Monday.
The only problem with our starters is that they are young. The bullpen blew these two games. Yes Perkins gave up the grand slam monday night, but then the bullpen came in with no one on the bases. They gave up five more runs! The Twins came back last night and again the pen blew it. Nathan had an off night, which was unfortunate.
I would not have sent Morneau last night. If it is going to be a real close play a the plate, the risks of injury increase.
Maybe Cuddyer can solve the bullpen problem - he’s got a great arm, doesn’t he? 
“If Ibanez comes up today and the bases aren’t loaded, I expect a 4 pitch walk.”
I would almost say that if Ibanez comes up today and the bases ARE loaded, it might not be a bad idea to walk him!
That Gardy quote is certainly an indictment of not bringing in another reliever at the deadline. Maybe something is being discussed now with teams, but this bullpen situation is not good. And, the two starters in this series haven’t helped by not going very far.
Boof’s issues are mental. He throws a 94/95 fastball and has the best curve on the staff. An article Gleeman did a few months ago concluded Bonser had the pitch which most frequently struck hitters out - his curve at something like 34% (in 2 strike counts I assume). Boof is the only guy with the stuff (again outside of Nathan) to come in with men on bases and get a K. He just has not put A and B together and his attitude sucks.
Guys like Dotel and Thornton and Farnsworth in Detroit (Ha!) have great power stuff but have never been consistently effective. When they are on they are unhittable but on off days they are wild and get batted around badly. If Bonser can embrace his role and throw more strikes than he typically did while in the rotation we could have a pretty good late inning guy.
Blackburn going 8 innings today would really help
Seth
Raul Ibanez= the new Barry Bonds!
How about that bullpen?
I don’t think the 8th inning had a damn thing to do with why Nathan blew it last night…he just blew it, plain and simple. It happens.
As for Guerrier, tired arm or not, enough is enough. We need big time help in this bullpen! In a sense, maybe the Twins are getting what they deserved for having kept the garbage portion of the bully on the roster for so long (namely, Bass and Boof). It’s a trickle down effect…when Bass and Boof struggle mightily and can’t get the innings you need out of them, then the ‘A’ squad is asked to work overtime.
Although, at this point, I’m not sure we have an ‘A’ squad.
Oh well, no matter what happens, this is still a massive improvement from the 2007 campaign, where we struggled to score 2.5 runs per game it seemed.
Did everyone enjoy that first place thing? Kinda felt like the sun popping out for 15 minutes on a rainy day.
I risk the third out at home. Better to put the pressure on their defense than Redmond. Perfect throw/catch/tag combos at the plate are rare and a lot can go wrong.
It looked like Morneau was slow getting around the bases - like he hesitated on contact for some reason.
seth is there any help in rochester?
“seth is there any help in rochester?”
Yes, the Mayo Clinic is there to repair some arms.
“but do you WANT the 3rd out at home.”
Not with Morneau last night, but the generic answer to that question is:
Yes!
With two outs, you gamble to score because, the odds are (at best) 2 to 1, that runner will NOT score later if you hold him at 3rd base with two outs.
“Yes, the Mayo Clinic is there to repair some arms.”
That is funny!
i know they do heart transplants there which seems to be what the pitching staff needs on the road.
home-3.29 era, away-5.70 era
home-.284 ba, away-.272 ba
home-5.15 runs scored, away-4.74 runs
appears the hitting is not the problem not a great spread home and away. the pitching seems to be tentative on the road, maybe time to call out rick anderson? does he need to change how he prepares this staff on the road? something is broke! with all the road games left it needs to be fixed quick or we can’t stay in this race.
good to see gardy try nathan in the 8th, imo it doesn’t need to be an every day thing but sometimes there is no choice.
gil, what exactly could Smith do to make AAA better in terms of pitching? 2 of the starters from last year are up in the majors, and he traded for two more as part of the Santana deal. If there were not enough pitchers in AA to move up to AAA, isn’t that on the previous regime?
As for nathan in the 8th, my position is unwavering on this. ESPN posted a great article yesterday agreeing. Saves are meaningless stats that influence managers to put their best reliever in the game int he 9th, instead of when they are most needed. That was not the case last night, as the 8th was barely more important than the 9th. Bringing in Nathan there is not going to ruin him. Unfortunately, he lost. It happens.
And, just to be clear for the 100th time, I am not arguing that if he comes in during the 7th or 8th that he should necessarily pitch in the 9th also. Nathan should come in during the highest leverage situation (after you’ve decided your starter isn’t a good option). Sometimes that will be the 7th, or th 8th, or even the 9th.
Two losses to the worst team in baseball do not end the season, any more than beating the Sox made the season. But, these two losses are going to hurt.
Nathan in the eighth seemed like a good idea at the time, but it didn’t work too good. Basically he’s not of the right mindset to play there because of all that went on during the season.
Oops! This is not a Packer football blog!
Did everyone enjoy that first place thing? Kinda felt like the sun popping out for 15 minutes on a rainy day.
I dunno. I look at the Seattle series as a rainy day on an otherwise sunny couple of months.
btw, I’m not about to defend Smith for his first year’s work. I’d say it has been a failure overall. The success they’ve had has been because of the players that Ryan accumulated, not because of Smith’s moves.
but, I also don’t think you can blame Smith for the current state of the minors. he’s had 1 draft to work with.
While I mostly agree with the argument against closers that ESPN put out there, they ignored fatigue, pitch counts and other very real issues in today’s game. If Nathan gets 6 key outs two nights in a row, you need somebody else the third night. Like everything else in baseball, it’s a risk with no clear cut answer.
seth is there any help in rochester?
In my opinion, not really. Korecky is what he is, and although he would be an improvement over Bass, he wouldn’t be a key contributor. I have always liked Ricky Barrett. One worth considering now is Philip Humber. He has been very good in three starts since returning to the rotation. I think his future with the Twins is in the bullpen. He could maybe come up and help.
The other guy to kind of watch is Jose Mijares. He was promoted to New Britain yesterday which is where he ended last season. He was in a bad car accident in Venezuela last winter and has worked his way back to AA now. If he keeps pitching well, he could move up to rochester and we’ll see. Maybe a September consideration?
I suppose, T. But you could also look at it as the storm finally arriving when the dark clouds have been building up for quite a while (bullpen).
In terms of everyone belittling the current farm system: what is your reasoning? Have the Twins drafted poorly in recent years?
When they build the 2000 club, the Twins had higher draft picks than the +.500 clubs of the past 7 years have gotten.
Fatigue is huge. Matt Guerrier has been excellent the last 2-3 years, but right now, he’s got to be about shot! His arm may literally (ok, not literally) fall off!
At this point, I’d love to see Smith DFA Bass and take some chances on Delaney or Slama
I expect a post-waiver trade for somebody who is risky but marginally “more talented” than Korecky. In other words, a guy who can pitch in the 6th-7th and trade little pressure off Crain and Guerrier.
Shaitan:
1. The Twins themselves have stated that they have not drafted well in terms of getting impact players. Few players in their minor league system look like they will be superstars (if any).
2. Rochester has been pretty barren all year. At one point they had to use pitchers in the field, I believe. They don’t have more than 3 starting pitchers, and have had a couple pretty bad older players pitching for them most of the year.
3. Few, if any, of their top prospects coming into the year have progressed in terms of how people feel about them as prospects (Revere and Hughes being obvious exceptions). However, several have regressed.
4. Many of the best players in the upper levels don’t really have a position, they are kind of utility players. Now, some would view that as good flexibility, many others would say they just aren’t all that good in the field…
That’s decent summary, though others know more about the minors than I.
As far as the farm system goes, the major issue is that AAA is full and getting filled up by had-beens and marginal prospects.
Case in point: Liriano comes up. Do they call in a young AA pitcher to take his spot? No. They go out of the organization and sign Tom Shearn out of Cinci. Why?
Thanks, mike. I’m just curious on the reasoning. I see it as a problem that the Twins philosophy was crafted when they were getting higher picks. Now that they’re a winning team the approach needs some tweaking. I don’t have the answer, as I’m far from knowledgable about the draft.
thrylos, they had just called up Swarzak from AA to replace Deunsing when he went to the Olympics. I’m not sure who else should be called up to start from AA at this point.
I’d love to hear a name
I was right to turn the game off early yesterday. Let’s win a game Twins!
mike,
“but, I also don’t think you can blame Smith for the current state of the minors. he’s had 1 draft to work with.”
Agreed.
Obviously, nobody in that 2008 draft is playing higher than Fort Myers. (A+ level) Smith is definitely NOT responsible for the Rochester and New Britain rosters, which are the main disaster areas.
“I’ll take my chances with Nathan” says Gardy.
Good.
Next time, take your chances by letting Nathan start the eighth. If he can get five outs, why not six? Guerrier gets the night off and we might be talking about a win.
It’s a move in the right direction though, Gardy.
And I do understand it’s not really your fault. You can only play the cards the front office gives you.
I would’ve loved Beltre, but I do understand Seattle was being unreasonable and maybe there wasn’t a deal to be made there.
But Grudz would look pretty good playing second, with Punto back at short and Harris/Buscher platooning. And I refuse to believe there wasn’t a deal to be made for a reliever. That’s BS.
Here is a stat that says a lot about the state of the Twins organization:
Average team age
Twins: Batters 26.4, pitchers 27.6
AAA: Team 27.1
AA: Team 23.6
A+: Team 22.5
A: Team 21.5
mike wants wins,
they could have called Mullins, instead of getting out and bringing a 30 year old who has no future with the organization
They could have, but Mullins isn’t really ready. Plus, many teams now have stiffs at AAA, and some of the best competition is in AA. But, yes, that is a legit name.
Mullins isn’t really ready
That’s what was said about Swarzak, based on his performance in New Britain this year, and he has proven people (including myself) wrong so far. I’d love it if next year replace 50% of the Rochester roster with players currently in New Britain and Ft. Myers, instead of going out and getting the golden oldies…
“Many of the best players in the upper levels don’t really have a position, they are kind of utility players. Now, some would view that as good flexibility, many others would say they just aren’t all that good in the field…”
I heard Mike Radcliff on an XM radio show earlier this year talking about this. The Twins say that every player in the system has a primary position but is also required to have a second and sometimes third position. The reason is simple and completely makes sense. A quality prospect can be held back if he’s only played one position and coule help the big league club at another. the negative, they do become utility players and that perception can creep up, and that’s unfortunate.
Look at Luke Hughes. If he just played 3B (and would have stayed healthy), he may be up in the big leagues now. But he plays 2B and the OF as well. My perception of him because of that is that he could become a super utility guy in the big leagues in a year or so.
Now Danny Valencia has played pretty much only 3B (with some games at 1B). Because of that, I see him as the 3B of the future and am excited about his potential.
Trevor Plouffe has primarily played SS throughout the system and greatly improved his defense. He played some 3B the last couple of years. This year, he played most SS at New Britain, but since he was promoted to AAA, he has played some SS, some 3B and some 2B. I don’t know how a guy can continue to improve at a position when he’s playing all over the place.
I find it slightly amusing that folks would complain about the way the Twins are handling their pitchers in AAA. It seems to me that they have a pretty good track record when it comes to pitchers, and perhaps they know who is and who isn’t ready to be promoted to AAA.
“I don’t know how a guy can continue to improve at a position when he’s playing all over the place.” this is certainly one of the parts that concerns me. I’m not sure how Plouffe or Hughes is expected to get good at on position when they are moved around a lot.
I know I read on one of either BA or ESPN that they felt the Twins moving some of these guys around so much is a sign they don’t have a ML position, not that they will be super utility guys at some point. We can agree or disagree with that, but I think your last point is crucial to a couple of players at least.
“That’s what was said about Swarzak, based on his performance in New…” I would have bet any amount of money this would be your reply, it would have been mine.
Swarzak was brought up to AAA simply because they needed pitchers. Shearn was brought in because they needed someone who could eat some innings. No, no future with the Twins, but also means that more pitchers don’t need to be pushed. The Red Wings got rained out last night, but the box score shows that, even with Swarzak and Shearn added, Tim Lahey was going to start the game. I think there have been enough AAA starts given to bullpen guys like Julio DePaula, Carmen Cali and Danny Graves. I think adding a veteran starter like Shearn was good. They still could bring up Mullins because he has been the Rockcats most consistent starter all year even though he missed some time being sick and then went to the bullpen for a month. Yohan Pino? Jason Miller? Kyle Aselton? Any of those AA starters exciting? Jeff Manship has a future with the Twins, but he’s been up and down in his first starts at AA.
Pete D,
this is not about “handling pitchers”. It’s about going out and getting 30 year old pitchers to pitch a month in AAA before they become free agents, instead of giving their own prospects a chance/experience of AAA.
thrylos98 -
It’s absolutely about handling pitchers. The Twins obviously feel that their own prospects aren’t ready for AAA ball. Like I said before, they have had a very good track record for developing pitchers - why not give them the benefit of the doubt that they know what they are doing?
Seth,
the roster management in Rochester has been horrid this year. I think that it is a philosophy situation. I see the minor leagues (including AAA) as development places and not as last stops of people with no future or rehabilitation grounds. The Twins organization has enough starting pitchers. The best 5 young guys should be in AAA. (Same goes with position players and bullpen pitchers too). Having a 22 year old potentially overmatched at AAA is way better than getting out of the organization and getting 30 year old never beens or starting 29 and 34 year old relievers who should not have been with the club at the first place…
Jason and T,
Regarding your “weather” analogies for the Twins season…
The “weather forecasters” predicted a long, dreary, cloudy, stormy summer for the Twins. Indeed, we have had a number of rainy days, especially on the road, but the summer has been remarkably sun-filled and pleasant.
Instead of a season filled with dark clouds and umbrellas in hand, this one has been a stroll on a Cancun beach in 80 degree temps, with an occasional trip to the beach bar for shelter and comfort. And to make it all the more enjoyable, we were told by our travel agents that we were going to Anchorage and we ended up in Cancun in December.
As I said when Howard got all giddy about first place, watch the anxiety levels if we drop a couple of games.
Just hate to see all the gnashing of teeth and possible cardio issues if the first place Twins drop a couple of series on this road trip and fall out of first place.
Swarzak’s performance improvement (from AA to AAA) may open up advancement opportunities for the other pitchers in the organization who have become bored and stagnant while being trapped at their current level.
I’ll say it again, any pitcher that isn’t doing well because he is bored has maturity issues that concern me.
” Having a 22 year old potentially overmatched at AAA is way better than getting out of the organization and getting 30 year old never beens or starting 29 and 34 year old relievers who should not have been with the club at the first place…”
I completely disagree… why have a 22 year old be overmatched at AAA than have him experiencing some success and still learning without being overmatched at AA? I really like the Twins philosophy on this topic.
I agree with Seth. They’ve been pretty successful with their drafting and development of pitchers with this philosophy. Hitters….
“I’ll say it again, any pitcher that isn’t doing well because he is bored has maturity issues that concern me.”
I agree with this. I would be concerned about a guy who doesn’t have enough pride to suck it up and perform at the level he is sent to.
Swarzak was sent back to AA and pitched horribly. He’s had two decent AAA starts so far. What happens when he gets to the big leagues and gets bored?
Manship was sent back to Hi-A to start this season. Did he sulk? No, he pitched well and earned his promotion to AA.
Mike McCardell could sulk because he hasn’t been promoted yet. What is he doing? Dominating.
I’ll take my chance with the guys that step up and just go about their business regardless.
“any pitcher that isn’t doing well because he is bored has maturity issues that concern me.”
Boredom and maturity issues are the rule, not the exception, in MLB clubhouses.
ok, who would you rather see pitching in Rochester:
Danny Graves (34) 6.10 ERA 1.66 WHIP (starter)
Tim Lahey (26) 5.88 ERA 1.48 WHIP
Carmen Cali (29) 4.07 ERA 1.49 WHIP
or
Robert Delaney (23) 1.46 ERA 0.86 WHIP (A+/AA)
Anthony Slama (24) Anthony Slama 0.90 ERA 0.95 WHIP (A+)
Cole DeVries (23) 2.97 ERA 1.29 WHIP (A+ starter)
I would rather see Delaney and Slama… but just because I’d rather see that doesn’t mean it’s better for 1.) those players and 2.) the Twins organization.
Roster management at AAA has been exceptional, not horrid. It’s a nice theory to expound that the minors will be fully stocked with players ready for the next level, at every level. That’s not reality. At AA, Sosa, Rainville, Pino, Swarzak, and Mullins all either washed out or languished a bit. That has exacerbated the problem for a farm system that was already sparse in talent at AAA and AA.
we’ve seen shooter having great sucess, how is the miami pitcher (the pick questioned by many) doing that was picked before him?
Seth: Don’t forget Liriano. While his agent was trying to force the issue, Liriano let his pitching do the talking in AAA.
Now he’s up here and had a VERY strong start. I look forward to seeing his follow up this weekend.
Who do you think works harder at their job?
1) A mature person who THINKS he has a 5% chance of imminent promotion?
or
2) A mature person who THINKS he has a 50% chance of imminent promotion?
I suppose, T. But you could also look at it as the storm finally arriving when the dark clouds have been building up for quite a while (bullpen).
True. But then, Seattle has always been known for its rain.
I’d rather have Lahey, Cali, and Graves at AAA, and just not have to SEE them. I’d liking to see a couple of the other pitchers mentioned at their current levels. Why? Because the Twins know how to run a farm system, and have for a long time. Not perfect, especially when drafting, but good.
“Seth: Don’t forget Liriano.”
Great point! He did keep pitching despite the disappointment. And likely there were some things that he was able to improve in that time. It’s not as easy to improve when you’re overmatched as when the game is a little slower and you can make those adjustments.
gobble,
Carlos Gutierrez is used as a reliever in Ft Myers and he has a 2.92 ERA with 1.46 WHIP. He will be a starter next season
This is really strange. In the past six years or so, the Twins’ bullpen has always been there, even when the rest of the team was not so great. Suddenly, the rest of the team is doing really well, but the bullpen is quite terrible. It must be some sort of cosmic practical joke.
gobble,
“how is the miami pitcher (the pick questioned by many) doing that was picked before him?”
Carlos Gutierrez is doing OK at Fort Myers. (one level higher than Shooter Hunt)
Next year will reveal much more, when the Twins re-convert him back to being a starting pitcher.
Right now, he is finishing the season as a reliever, like he was this year at Miami. (because of TJ surgery recovery)
There is probably no need to despair about the farm system overall, wouldn’t you agree, Seth? Last time I glanced at the winning pct.at each level, the Twins were good at every level below AA. Even their team OPS ranked high at most levels, although team ERA was spotty. It looks to me like there are a couple of potential perennial all-stars at every level. I can recall a time when our best prospects had names like Gorinsky and Restovich, not Ramos and Revere.
Aren’t Delaney and Slama relievers? While I think they could be promoted, it does not fix the starting pitching issues in AAA.
Seth, you’ve been prolific on this topic today!
I think the place to “despair” is the lack of true impact, superstar hitters, and no clear answer at SS, 3B, and corner OF (positions of weakness at the MLB level). I’m not sure I’d despair, exactly, but I’m not thrilled about the lack of potential superstars and any really good answer at 3B.
With Shooter and Gutierez in Fort Myers to start the year. Fort Myers and New Britian should have pretty good staffs
Mike, you are probably right that the Twins don’t have answers in the farm system at those three positions for at least the next two years, unless Plouffe, Hughes, or Valencia surprises. But remember, no one was going to trade them a quality player during the off-season for Slowey, Blackburn, Perkins, or Baker, and maybe not even Liriano. Those players now have trade value. If Mulvey, Swarzak, et al develop, then we will have excess and can solve those deficiencies. That has been the FO plan I think- get through with stopgaps in 2008 and incrementally improve through both trades and promotions in 2009 and 2010. Ws in 2011.
“There is probably no need to despair about the farm system overall, wouldn’t you agree, Seth? ”
I don’t think so… I’ve said it before, the Twins are set for 3-6 years at C, 1B, 2B, LF, CF, RF, 4th OF, DH, SP… 3B is a need and the Twins have Buscher/Macri/Hughes/Plouffe/Valencia and others and need just one or two of them to be about league average. SS is a concern but again, just need one to pan out. The high-end talent, in my mind, is in the lower levels. It’s been a rough year in the system, but no need to worry about the organization as a whole.
“Seth, you’ve been prolific on this topic today!”
Sorry, I get a little passionate about the Twins farm system.
There’s a lot to look forward to, if things work out and players develop. I’m an old-timer so I’m liking the contrasts to yesteryear: Shooter Hunt, not Steve Gasser; Deolis Guerra, not Adam Johnson; Tyler Robertson, not Johnny Ard….
It only takes a few.
birdofprey, I’d love to see them make a deal like the Young/Garza deal (even if that is not the deal I’d have made). However, I think they are too risk averse to do that. Also, I’m not 100% convinced that the Twins have 5 quality starters yet. I think they have two for sure in Baker and Liriano, and I think one of the others will emerge as a number 3/4 type for sure, but I’m not convinced all 5 are certain ML starters.
I am convinced the Twins aren’t sure yet either, which is one reason we did not see them go all in this year.
Seth is much more confident about the OF than I am. Not one guy has proven w/o a doubt that he is a major league quality OF (cuddeyer probably excepted). Gomez, Span, Young are all unproven. Odds are one will get better, one will stay about the same, and the other is a crapshoot. I’d feel a lot better if Young had shown any growth this year compared to last.
I agree that the high end talent is at the lower levels. Part of that is that the upper level players are mostly on the Twins (or were traded for Young). Part of that is that they had a string of pretty mediocre drafts when it comes to hitters especially.
I do not think the 2 Seattle games are indicative of the Twins season. They had bad games - it happens. The bullpen is not the greatest but it is better than average. I agreee with Mike that we need more help in other areas - especially a “real” banger. If he played 3rd, that would be even better. I am not knocking Justin M. He just needs help.
“a string of pretty mediocre drafts when it comes to hitters especially.”
I always look at that 2005 draft. The college pitchers they took have all done pretty well (Garza, Slowey, Duensing, Mullins). But the high school hitters they took have all been hurt (Paul Kelly, Drew Thompson, Henry Sanchez). They look like busts, but since they simply haven’t played (you can’t predict those types of injuries), we don’t know and they’re only 20 or so.
They also tend to go with high school position players which could provide a higher ceiling in some cases than college guys but there is more risk and it takes 4-6 years to make it.
Finally, because of their success, they have typically been drafting later in the first round, so there really are no ’sure things’ as well.
I agree that the jury is still out regarding the magnitude and even the quantity of talent at SP. The Twins aren’t sure what they have yet, nor do potential trading partners out there. So you’re right, the Twins have an incremental strategy rather than a Seattle-style all-in strategy. They are starting to see what they have, and they have to be thrilled that the four new starters all show glimpses of becoming legitamate 2-3-4 starters for years to come. Of course, one or more may shut down each year due to injury, which is why it’s so smart to keep the pipeline jammed. Other teams seem to be willing to pay a premium when they get desperate, and will make stupid trades for crappy pitchers in a pinch (see JC Romero for Alexi Castilla).
I tend to think that, unless a position player is a perennial all-star, they are pretty fungible. The edge goes to those who play defense and have good make-ups. So I’m probably more in Seth’s camp in thinkin we’re in decent shape in the OF.
Is Valencia the next Koskie, or is he the next Eric Soderholm? Who knows. But the Twins now have better odds that they have the next Koskie at some level in the system.
“Is Valencia the next Koskie, or is he the next Eric Soderholm?”
We won’t know for a couple of years. My point is that you put together a bunch of possibilities, you let them play and develop and hope one of them turns out.
We won’t know for a couple of years. My point is that you put together a bunch of possibilities, you let them play and develop and hope one of them turns out.
Exactly. It’s inaccurate to portray the farm system as mediocre or even worse, but accurate to cite occasional poor drafts and a lack of success in drafting high-ceiling position players with consistency.
If so many other teams are that much better at developing talent, then why are thirty-some former Twins playing on other teams?
What is wrong with calling up Ricky Barrett from Rochester? 27 year old lefthander. 3.12 ERA, not great but not terrible. 58 IP, 41 H, 29 BB, 69 K,
.202 BAA, WHIP of 1.21. Would he be worse than what we have?
The criticism of the AAA roster is unfair. The big “problem” is that young guys like Span, Casilla, Buscher, Tolbert, Macri, Blackburn, Slowey, Perkins, Liriano (if you want to count him) and now even not so young guys like Ruiz have been playing in the big leagues. An amazing number of players have stepped up to the big leagues from Rochester over the past year and played crucial roles for a contending Twins team. The Twins success this season is a direct result of a good farm system which has been able to overcome the lack of production from veterans like Monroe, Rincon, Hernandez, Everett, and Lamb.
And I don’t believe you promote talent from lower levels just because there are openings at AAA. The Twins are correct to focus on putting a player at the proper level to optimize their development and put them in a position to succeed rather than creating the best or most exciting AAA roster for the present moment. It’s been a rough year for the Rochester fans, but the Twins have to focus on what’s best for the big league club including taking a long term view of player development.
I am amazed at what some of you people know about the farm clubs. I have a tough enough time keeping track of the Twins.
Beautifully stated, mbrian33.
The criticism of the MLB roster has also been unfair at times in my view. The FO took some chances. Some didn’t work out, some did. Lamb is an example of one that can be questioned, but it’s not ludirous to conclude that he’s a better option at 3B than Buscher or Macri were thought to be.
“And I don’t believe you promote talent from lower levels just because there are openings at AAA”
Lots of teams do this, the mets for example, push their guys up levels quickly.
Getting retreads does three things:
Piss off your AAA affiliate - ruins your depth - gets your prospects in contact with bitter flame outs.
“Lots of teams do this, the mets for example, push their guys up levels quickly.”
If lots of teams jumped off a bridge, should the Twins jump off a bridge too?
“If lots of teams jumped off a bridge”
If the bridge leads to mediocrity, or worse “almost winners” than yes, they should.
“I am amazed at what some of you people know about the farm clubs. I have a tough enough time keeping track of the Twins.”
My wife feels the same way when she speaks of my “gift”. Except I think she uses the words “appalled” and “disgusted”, rather than “amazed”.
I think she may be closer to reality, but we all waste our time in different ways.
comments from John Manuel’s ESPN chat today (copied while free):
Kozz, MLPS: any chance the twins have a bullpen arm they could call up? something has gotta change if they are gonna hang around the chisox.
John Manuel : (2:20 PM ET ) Best bets to help, for me, are LHP Jose Mijares, just coming back from his offseason car wreck injuries but throwing well (one FSL manager told our JJ Cooper that “Mijares is back to being Mijares”); sleeper RHP Robert Delaney, who’s been outstanding since jumping to Double-A; or long-shot Anthony Slama, an RHP who’s just ripping up the Florida State League. I anticipate Mijares getting a shot when he’s ready but reading the Twins on such matters is difficult, and I haven’t talked to them about it. They certainly need help in the 7th and 8th innings and really miss Pat Neshek.
John Manuel : (2:25 PM ET ) Another Twins question . . . Revere & Hunt certainly will be near the top, but don’t forget C Wilson Ramos. He ranked third on our list coming into the year, is Best Defensive C in the FSL and has 12 homers and a .764 OPS as a 20-year-old in the FSL this year. He’s a front-line starting catcher prospect. Could be No. 1 or No. 2 for me, with Revere right there as well. Slama has established himself as for real this year (he ranked 28th entering the year) and LHP Jose Lugo is starting to pop up as an arm strength guy.
Mr. sid (12:32), I know of what you speak. My bride of 30+ years recently accused me of only talking baseball. I told her that she was way off base.
Daniel,
Good one!
The FO took some chances.
Taking a chance would’ve been going with Buscher at 3B instead of Lamb.
And I don’t care what people say, Everett was a placeholder due to the depature of Jason Bartlett and the meltdown Casilla had in 2007.
If Casilla plays like he has this year…he starts the season with Harris in the MIF.
I do not think the 2 Seattle games are indicative of the Twins season. They had bad games
The two Seattle games so far remind me a LOT of the Jay’s/O’s series. Both times the Twins were coming in hot off of a big series with Red Sox/Yankees and both times they fell flat on their face against inferior teams.
I think that’s the sign of a young team. They get going on a hot streak and start to feel invincible, especially after big wins against Cleveland and Chicago.
T,
“If Casilla plays like he has this year…he starts the season with Harris in the MIF.”
If Harris is the starting SS next year, someone must have been injured in ST.
And all the Twins pitchers will be counting the days until free agency.
IMO, Harris will be a (platoon?)3B, Casilla will be the SS and a cast of dozens will battle for 2B.
The Twins’ problem, as far as infield -other than 1B- goes, is that they have only one reliable player (Casilla) in the 2B/SS positions, platoon and PH type players in 3B (Lamb, Buscher, Macri, Harris) and a bunch of utility players to fill up the rest (Tolbert, Harris, Macri, Punto -hope he is gone next year). That’s a lot of traffic jam. I hope that they trade quantity for quality by the beginning of next season, keeping Casilla and a couple of the utility people and trading the rest along with a pitcher or 2 for help at 3B and SS (same holes, different year it seems )
Delaney not only doesn’t get to try AAA, he is stuck behind non-prospect Ben Julianel at AA. Anthony Slama should’ve been moved up to AA a month and a half ago. Not only does he strike out 40% of the guys he faces, he doesn’t walk anymore hitters than the average guy. That’s a recipe for success. They’re both old enough to be at a higher level. That said, they’ll be up a level next season and I will only *really* squak (sp?) if they continue to perform but are not moved up again by this time next year.
For the 241st time:
FREE RICKY BARRETT!
I agree Sane. Casilla at SS, 2nd base up for grabs and 3rd becomes a platoon situation.
This is of course for next year.
I misworded there sane. I should’ve said “had played”, referring to Casilla’s ugly 2007.
If he played in 2007 like he has in 2008, He would’ve had the starting job coming out Spring Training this year and they’d never have signed Everett.
