Arizona Fall League begins
Posted on October 7th, 2008 – 2:59 PMBy La Velle
Whew! Change is good but change can be a pain, too.
Stribbers are slowly getting new PC’s and laptops and migrating to a new email system, and there have been some glitches. I like the new e-mail system, so it’s worth it. And the new laptop rocks.
The Twins’ season is over but the Twins are far from dormant.
1. Florida instructional league is going on now.
2. The Twins will hold their organizational meetings in Fort Myers next week. That’s when the Twins will get everyone - front office, field management, scouts, etc, - together to assess how things have gone and plot a course for the offseason. It’s where the Twins could decide where they will upgrade the club before spring training.
3. But what I want to get into now is Arizona Fall League action - which begins today.
The AFL is a six-team league for nearly-ready prospects that runs until just before Thanksgiving. Each major league team sends several prospects to fill out rosters. And nearly-ready isn’t a joke. Jed Lowie was in the league last year and is now helping the Red Sox chase another title. Troy Tulowitzki played there in 2006 and was a key player for the Rockies last year. Jacoby Ellsbury, Ben Zobrist and Gavin Floyd played in the league in 2006 and were on playoff teams this year.
So it’s worth keeping track of the AFL to see how your favorite prospect is doing.
Here are the Twins prospects in the league this season: All are playing for the Peoria Phoenix Desert Dogs.
Rob Delaney, RHP: Delaney, a reliever, was 1-2 with a 1.42 ERA in 23 games at Class A Fort Myers. He walked four and struck out 34 in 31.2 innings while holding opponents to a .207 batting average. He was bumped up to Class AA New Britain - but his numbers were even better. A 2-1 record and 1.05 ERA in 23 games there. He walked seven and struck out 38 in 34.1 innings. Opp. avg: ,171. Delaney throws in the low to mid-90’s but apparently has a nasty slider and a bulldog mentality to go with it. He should debut with Twins sometime next year - his success at the AA level suggests so.
Anthony Slama, RHP: Slama was Delaney’s teammate at Fort Myers before Delaney was promoted, and the two simply worked over the league. In 51 games, Slama was 4-1 with a 1.01 ERA and 25 saves. In 71 innings, Slama walked 24 and struck out 110. Slama should have been promoted to New Britain along with Delaney, but Slama was caught up in a numbers game and the Twins wanted him to close. He has a good sinking fastball and decent slider. He’ll be 25 in January, so it’s really time to get Slama moving through the system.
Tim Lahey, RHP: Another reliever, Lahey throws hard but his numbers at Class AAA Rochester - 5-5, 5.43, 23 walks in 63 innings - suggests he needs some refinement. The AFL will be a good test for the converted catcher.
Jeff Manship, RHP: The Twins have been fired up about Manship for a couple years now. He throws the basic four-pitch mix, but his curveball has been called one of the best in the organization. He was 7-3, 2.86 in 13 starts at Fort Myers before he was moved to New Britain. But he struggled with the Rock Cats, going 3-6, 4.46 in 14 starts. After not giving up a homer at Fort Myers, he was tagged eight times at New Britain. So the AFL will be a good challenge for him. The experience he’ll gain should help him solve AA ball - then the Twins can look forward to his arrival.
Steven Tolleson, 2B: There are three second basemen and two shortstops listed on Peoria’s roster, so there will be a battle for playing time. Tolleson hit .300 with nine homers and 50 RBI for New Britain in 93 games. While he struck out 74 times, he walked 44 times for a .382 on base percentage (had a .388 OBP in 2007). Tolleson played short, second and a little outfield at New Britain last season and I’ve been told supposed to be a nice little defensive player.
Daniel Valencia, 3B: The Twins believe Valencia is bonafide third base prospect who will hit for power and play good defense, not some undersized stopgap answer or a strong hitter with a stone glove. He hit .336 with five homers and 44 RBI and a .402 on base percentage in 60 games at Fort Myers before moving to New Britain. I remember barking at the Twins for keeping him -and Delaney…and Slama - at Fort Myers so long. Well, the Twins moved him to New Britain - and Valencia promptly hit .186 in his first 12 games. But he figured things out. He hit .319 in July then hit .308 with eight homers and 21 RBI in August to finish at .289-10-32 in 69 games. So I was right! He drew just 18 walks and fanned 70 times after the promotion, which is concern. But it will be interesting to see how he plays this fall. So far, not bad for a 19th round pick in 2006.
Dustin Martin, OF: He’s listed at 6-2, 210. I saw Martin during spring training and he was one physical specimen. But he’s still trying to get his physical gifts to show up on the field. He hit .290 with 10 homers and 72 RBI for New Britain. He stole 22 bases. He walked 49 times and 125 times in 133 games - not good. I was impressed to see that he made just two errors in 128 games in the outfield. That means his arm isn’t erratic and the 22 steals suggests he can cover ground. This is a good test for him heading into a 2009 season during which he’ll turn 25.
50 Responses to "Arizona Fall League begins"
Phoenix Desert Dogs not Peoria
I think Martin has a chance to be a solid big league contributor. so many people thought that the Twins gave away Luis Castillo, but I really think that Martin and Drew Butera (who went to the AFL last year) will both play roles with the Twins.
Manship had some struggles in New Britain, but he ended the season very well and should be considered a good prospect going into 2009. (Plus, he’ll be on the podcast tomorrow before their game… unless he’s starting)
I think Valencia will be a star at 3B, the total package. His upside is much higher than Luke Hughes, both with the bat and definitely with the glove.
And the Twins didn’t promote Slama during the season, so good for them for getting him into the AFL. Delaney, in my mind, is the better prospect because he doesn’t walk anyone and still gets strikeouts. But it’ll be interesting to see how it goes.
Lahey - I don’t know. maybe they hope he does enough that someone will again take him in the Rule V draft this year!
I think that Martin (and maybe Joe Benson) will probably be gone in the next Twins’ trade. He is older than the 3 starting MLB OFs and he has Hicks, Revere and Angel Morales knocking on the door behind him.
Tolleson would have no problem getting playing time with Stan Cliburn as the manager
thrylos98,
It is not saying much that Martin is older than the 3 starting MLB OFs when ours are 22,23 & 24.
Most of the outfielders in baseball are older than ours.
Also, Martin is younger than Span. Span turns 25 in February and Martin in April.
SweetOne,
my point is that he is blocked in the majors and has (at least) 3 better prospects on his tail at the minors. He is in no man’s land and he would probably be more valuable to the Twins as trade bait, instead of starting at Rochester/New Britain (esp. the latter, since I hope to see Revere manning the CF in New Britain next summer)
and yes he is 2 months younger than Span but plays 2 levels bellow him.
That would be pushing Revere too fast.
I think the time is right to trade some of our minor league talent in the outfield and pitching to secure a third baseman(maybe Beltre for a year untill Valencia or Hughes are ready in 2010 as Seth suggests).We drafted good talent at these positions so we now need to fill needs on the left side of the infield.This is the only way mid-market teams can compete with the big boys.
That would be pushing Revere too fast.
Not if you have 3 very good center fielders in the organization who really have nothing to prove at the current levels… The problem is that if you hold back Revere, you hold back everyone behind him.
my take for CF in 2009:
New Britain: Revere
Ft. Myers: Angel Morales
Beloit: Hicks
Revere will be 21 next year. Mauer was 20 when he was at New Britain and Morneau 21…
[…] Twins Insider – […]
Revere will start next season in Ft. Myers. If he has an All-Star level first half, he could get to New Britain in the second half. Angel Morales will spend the whole year in Beloit. Hicks could spend the whole year at Beloit too, but let’s not forget that Revere started this season in extended spring training. Hicks could very easily do the same. That would mean he’d start at E-Town unless there was an injury.
Valencia may be the better 3B prospect, but Hughes would be a great 2B consideration. And, once the Twins wise up and slide Alexi over to SS, his natural position, and Hughes into 2B, they solve their SS situation and add 12-15 dingers from 2B.
I’ll be cool to see what happens with Valencia over the next two years. He’s at that stage where either he vaults into MLB consideration or fades like so many before him have.
[…] Britain manager Stan Cliburn. LaVelle posted some thoughts on each of the Twins players in the AFL here, and I left a couple of comments there, so please check that out. In their first game yesterday, […]
Luke Hughes may be more of a DH, 1B, corner OF type. If he has enough of a bat (questionable). The Twins will give him a shot at 3B. Why not? Everyone else has played there. What a long parade at 3B since Koskie left.
Can anyone come up with a list of players who have played at 3B since Koskie left? That would be fun to see.
Let’s see. Buscher, Harris, Macri, Tolbert, Punto(221), Tommy Watkins(8), Jeff Cirillo (15), Tony Batista(50), Terry Tiffee(42), Cuddyer(95), Glenn Williams(12), Luis O. Rodriquez(94), Juan Castro(22)
you forgot mike lamb
I’m just not as convinced as most of you that Beltre is THE answer. Sure, he might do fairly well, but I don’t expect him to put up better numbers than Cuddyer of 2 and 3 years ago. Espcecially with just one year left on his contract. Unless you could give up virtually nothing in terms of talent for him, I wouldn’t be terribly excited to see him on the Twins roster.
There are 4 possible (realistic- at least at this point) outcomes with DY. (I guess DY’s future here could dramatically affect Cuddyer’s).
#1. Trade him for Some talent. If he never develops* you look like a genius. But it still doesn’t justify giving up Garza.
#2. Keep him and he never develops* you look bad. Additionally, giving away Garza looks even worse.
#3. Trade him for some talent and he winds of developing*. Maybe the talent you get in return is better than he’ll ever be. That’s not likely, and if not, you really look bad, and again you say: And we gave up Garza for a nobody, bailed on him, he develops* with another team, and now we have nothing to show for any of it? This makes you look really bad, and is probably the worst scenario.
#4. Keep him and he develops*. You can justify the Garza trade. The best scenario. You look like a real genius.
In two of the possible outcomes, you look good. In the other two, you don’t. Of course, there’s always the possibility he could hit: .290 with 107 RBI’s, and 29 home runs next year, and then bat just: .248 with 64 RBI’s, and 17 homers in 2010 (or vice-versa). But assuming that if he ever becomes ‘good’ and stays ‘good’ for a while, those are you options. It’s a gamble no matter what you do. I’d probably keep him at least one more year. Remeber Ortiz? I’ll admit that while I NEVER liked the release of Ortiz because I thought he had real potential, I don’t EVER see Young being THAT good. What would you do?
*I’m not entirly sure as to what ‘develops’ means. Sure if he puts out Morneau numbers, we’re good. If he hits .260, gets 90+ RBI’s, and hits 25+ homers, we’re good. If he bats .320 with 10 homers, is that good? What about 28 homers, but just a .220 avg. with 85 RBI’s. It’s all in what you want out of him. I want a power guy. Batting at least .260 with 25+ homers, and 90+ RBI’s.
Sorryforthelongpostnight.
TK(2), you have a good point. What IS “develop” for Young. I he finished 08 at .290 with 10 homers and 69 RBI. That’s better than our LF options for the past few years…(not counting Kubel who was still in the lineup in another role)
If he can keep that average, I have a feeling the homers will come with it. It took a while to get his first, but once he got that one they started coming more frequently (I think some of the problems were mental…new team, wanting to impress…kinda like Garza and his “Never won at the Dome” thing)
Look what happened to Kubel this year with regular play time. .271, 20 HR, 78 RBI. And you have to consider the RBI total when he’s hitting behind Morneau’s 129.
I agree Young will likely never be Ortiz good, but I think this year was a Sophormore slump. I’d hate to see the team give up on him so soon.
On another note: “Slama” ranks up there with “Balfour” in my list of Unfortunate Pitcher Names.
Add in “Swisher”, which is probably the worst name for a hitter and you’ve got a fun trifecta.
Do not give up on Delmon yet. He is 23. The guy still has great potential. It is way too soon to give up on him.
Delmon didn’t hit 30+ homeruns in his second year in the majors and his first year with a new team. Moreover, the guy just doesn’t smile enough. On top of that, to get him we had to give up a pitcher who might have won the Cy Young this year if he had only won 11 or 12 more games and had a much lower ERA. What a disaster! Must trade Delmon for a low-ranking AAA prospect. Now.
The interesting thing about Kubel is this was basicaly his first full season without an injury and he still only had 463 AB’s. I heard someone mention that Kubel said he still wasn’t quite 100% yet. If that’s true and the Twins can find a solid RH bat to put between him and Justin then lookout next year.
“a pitcher who might have won the Cy Young this year if he had only won 11 or 12 more games and had a much lower ERA. ”
Uh so would Livan.
Delmon is an easy target because he lacks any outward personality. Punto is an easy target because he’s a little runt. Bullies always go after the easy targets.
Seth,
“but let’s not forget that Revere started this season in extended spring training. Hicks could very easily do the same”
Revere required major corrections to his outfield and base-stealing skills.
Hicks has no such fundamental flaws.
The only possible reason to delay Hicks’ start would be batting refinements and for THAT, there is no substitution for REAL GAMES.
If he does not start at Beloit in April, I will be flabbergasted.
Keeping him in extended ST until E-Town starts in June, would be a crime. - No, make that a felony.
Seth,
I also think Morales has the power potential to be a corner OF, and with Gomez, Span, Revere and Hicks in the organization, he will end up as a corner OF eventually.
Maybe as soon as next season in Beloit.
Delmon Young is gone, bad attitude, bet the house on it. (well maybe just the summer place) But my money is on him being gone.
Sane, I agree that Hicks should go to Beloit… but I just want to leave the EST option out there so that we’re not completely shocked if the Twins decide to do that.
I completely agree that Morales will eventually be a LF, with Hicks possibly being in RF (based on his arm). Span or Gomez in CF with Revere at 2B… just an opinion.
Revere at 2B
that’s an interesting thought… has he been taking any IF practice? He has the physical ability to cover ground and he is built more like and IF than an OF.
I don’t know about high school, but he hasn’t played the IF in the pros at all. I think that the transition from the IF to the OF is easier, but a few players did it the other way too (Melvin Mora is one I can think of)
interesting… Since he catches RH, why not SS? I think the organization has more of a need there.
What about Garrett Atkins at 3B? He was all over the rumor mills this season. They guy can hit and it sounds like the Twins have some ammo to make a move for him.
You’re right about D. Young. Bad, bad attitude who won’t listen. Not the Twins kind of ball player.
I agree as well that Alexi should move to SS with L Hughes being groomed to play 2nd base not 3rd.
Platoon Buscher/Harris in ‘09 until Valencia is ready.
Seth,
If moving Revere to 2B is feasible (based on his skill set and experience), it would be a great move for the Twins.
I wonder if it has been discussed at any level of the organization.
Ben Revere did play 2B in HS, before being converted to CF to maximize the impact of his plus-plus speed.
Sane is right on the 2B in high school thing. And I have no problem with keeping him out there because we don’t know who will develop and such over the next 2-3 years. If there are other options at CF/LF, I think a move eventually to 2B is feasibly…
“You’re right about D. Young. Bad, bad attitude who won’t listen.”
Rocky - What is this based on? Are you in the clubhouse?
“What about Garrett Atkins at 3B?”
He can hit, but can he hit outside of Coors Field?
“He can hit, but can he hit outside of Coors Field?”
Not a problem. We’ll just move the fences at Target Field in about 10-15 feet. Should help out the ‘power numbers’ everyone seems so concerned about.
Of course, the pitchers may not be too happy, but you can’t please everyone, right?
The Twins philosophy in the minors is to have players try to play several positions. If Revere had any potential as an infielder, he would have played there by now.
Think left fielder, along the lines of Tim Raines. Superstar……..maybe.
baseball-reference.com/r/raineti01.shtml
Tim Raines.
Atkins can hit outside of Coors field better than out current choices (Buscher and Harris). His career numbers are .260/.328/.424 away from Coors and he hit 45 HRs away vs 44 at home.
That said:
a. his fielding is not much better that the current choices
b. there are better third basemen out there
c. Atkins would likely be more of a long term acquisition and that does not make sense for the Twins with Valencia and maybe Hughes in the pipeline…
Craig,
as long as he stays away from the white powder, unlike Rock Raines…
craig,
“If Revere had any potential as an infielder, he would have played there by now.”
Sometimes minor league position changes occur later, rather than sooner.
Revere has only played 133 minor league games - about 4/5 of a full MLB season.
Matt Moses (3B to OF), David Winfree (3B to OF) and Tim Lahey (C to P) changed positions after more than one minor league season. Of course those changes were caused by failures at their original postions, which is not a factor for Revere.
However, if Revere’s advancement is blocked in the outfield, but he is not blocked as a 2B, a position change could be considered.
But as you suggested, maybe Revere simply does not have the IF skills to make such a position change.
Folks,
Revere is an outfielder. There are no plans to move him into the infield. I checked….
Thanks La Velle
Thanks for checking into it, LaVelle.
Does that mean that it has never been considered? (too outrageous?);
or that it has been considered, but rejected?
Where does this “bad attitude” tag on Delmon Young come from based on his time with the Twins? I thought he stayed out of the negative headlines, kept a low profile, and adapted well to a new team. Maybe La Velle can offer some insight as to DY’s clubhouse persona and what his teammates think of him.
There is nothing wrong with having a glut of centerfield talent. These things have as way of working themselves out. Sure optimal results aren’t always the final product but right now is not aq time to worry about the future of our outfield! Is JJ Hardy really on the trading block? Or is this just more wishful thinking out loud by Punto haters?
Looking forward to seeing Valencia play. He’s the only 3B listed on the Dogs’ roster so should see plenty of action.
Walter, yesterday you said DY is an easy target due to lack of outward personality. Since when were the Twins loaded with guys with lots of “outward personality?” Can you be more vanilla than the M&M’s? Go-Go has lots of personality of course. A notch lower would be guys like RedDog, LNP, Span, a few others. I think it’s a bit unfair to say bullies (??) on these blogs are picking on DY because of his personality??? How about his defense, best already described by others as a moose on ice skates chasing butterflies (I’ve combined a couple of descriptions)? And yes, some of us, though not bullies, are disappointed that he regressed from his near ROY season.
LEN3, you say entire Twins org. is meeting next week in Ft. Myers. What about Stan Cliburn? He’s down here right now managing the Dogs. Hope they schedule their meetings so that he at least joins via videoconferencing or at least by phone.
