A look at the 2004 draft
Posted on November 20th, 2008 – 5:50 PMBy La Velle
The Twins on Wednesday revealed the eight players they added to their 40-man roster.
But it’s always interesting to see who was left exposed to next month’s Rule 5 draft. And this is a great time to evaluate the Twins’ 2004 draft.
They had five of the first 39 picks that year and selected Trevor Plouffe (20th overall), Glen Perkins (22), Kyle Waldrop (25), Matt Fox (35) and Jay Rainville (39).
Right now, Perkins and Matt Tolbert (taken in the 16th round) have made the biggest impact so far. Anthony Swarzak (second), Portes (15th) and Tim Lahey (20th) also were drafted that year.
This year’s list of unprotected players represents several disappointing high draft picks — maybe a couple too many for an organization that relies on its farm system.
Some things were out of the Twins’ control. Rainville, a kid with good size and a good fastball, missed all of 2006 with nerve problems in his shoulder. The Twins were happy just to see him on a mound in 2007, but he was 9-9 with a 5-plus ERA this year at New Britain.
Fox went four spots ahead of Rainville but he, too, missed a whole year (2005) because of an injury. Fox spent this year at Class A Fort Myers.
Two other first rounders who are unprotected – Matt Moses and Kyle Waldrop – stand out.
Moses should be the Twins starting third baseman right now. He came out of high school in 2003 as one of the best prep hitters in the draft. He had some early health issues, as he battled a sore back and a heart defect that required a patch to be placed on that all-important muscle.
I actually saw Moses play in 2005 when he, Perkins and Denard Span played for Class A Fort Myers. Moses hit a game-tying homer in the top of the ninth inning that led to extra innings. The swing was nice. He wasn’t very fluid at third but the Twins loved his bat and felt his defense would improve.
Twins manager Ron Gardenhire told Moses before a spring game in 2006 that third base in the majors was there for the taking. Moses even showed up to 2007 spring training down 40 pounds and looking serious. But Moses hasn’t turned the corner. Now Moses, and David Winfree, another third base prospect who has disappointed, have been shifted to the outfield.
Waldrop was the 25th overall pick in 2004. Some teams backed off him because he seemed destined to pitch at Vanderbilt. The Twins took a chance, drafted him and received kudos all over baseball for being able to sign him. Waldrop could change speeds coming out of high school and was considered to have a very good feel for pitching.
Four years into his pro career, Waldrop is still looking for his breakout season. He just turned 22, so it’s too early to give up on him. But it’s time for him to step up.
Other players I’ve heard the Twins speak highly of over the years who are not protected include Erik Lis, Juan Portes, Yohan Pino and Ryan Mullins.
Any of these players can turn their pro careers around. But one or two of them might have to do it with another team next season.
So what are your thoughts about the 2004 draft? Some of you might have seen Rainville or Fox or Waldrop pitch in the minors.
162 Responses to "A look at the 2004 draft"
when was the last time the Twins actually drafted a guy that has made a big impact on the team? Span, but other then me, nobody thought he had a chance to succeed in the league, even the Twins management doubted him.
Before that, Mauer I guess. Their drafts have been very mediocre and I wish companies like Baseball America would quit rating the Twins so high so they actually make an effort to draft players that have the ability to make a giant impact on the team. They draft way too many pitchers and way too many outfielders, when they have needed infield help for a long while now.
Twins need a change. Dump Smith, dump Gardenhire, and change their drafting philosophy.
Slowey, Baker, Garza, Perkins
Morneau, Cuddyer, Crain, Neshek. Bill James just rated the Twins young talent tops int he league. Some of that was acquired through trades. But all of it has a source in the draft.
This year’s pick to get taken in the Rule 5 is Zach Ward, who came to the Twins from the Reds in the Lohse trade, who came to the Twins in the Aguilera trade, who came to the Twins in the Viola trade, who came to the Twins in the draft.
Dan, the Twins had the second youngest team int he league this last year. They completely rebuilt their team between 2002 and 2008 and still managed to contend in five out of the seven interceding years. That is the definition of a successful organization. If you want better, go root for the Yankees. Oh, I forgot, the Twins actually had a better record than the Yankees this year and will surely be picked to have a better record than them in 2009 no matter how much money Hal Steinbrenner throws at the market.
This is the downside of drafting as much high school talent as the Twins do. By the time you have to protect them on your 40 man roster you are still not sure what you exactly have in alot of cases. These guys are still in their early 20’s and could still have a chance to have a good career but the Twins can’t know 100% which to protect or not to.
If you draft a college players he is more than likely to be in the majors already so you know what you have.
Shawn’s 4 players he listed are perfect examples all 4 college pitchers. I liked what the Twins did with Guittierez and Shooter Hunt this year, Hicks looks good but I would have went a different route.
So what are your thoughts about the 2004 draft?
Hindsight 20-20, but lets see some of the players that were taken behind the Twins’ selections:
Philip Hughes (behind Plouffe and Perkins)
Huston Street (behind the aforementioned and Fox and Rainville)
Dustin Pedroia (gulp; behind the aforementioned and Swarzak)
Hunter Pence (ditto)
Kurt Suzuki (ditto)
Adam Lind (ditto)
and crabshoot and all, you sometimes have to worry about the Twins amateur scouts…
Swarzak will probably be the best of all these guys. He really reminds me of John Candelaria (in more ways than one 
and yes that’s a quasi inside statement I shall not elaborate on). All the talent in the world and up to him to make it happen.
The Twins have somewhat of a funky way on bringing prospects along. They give up on some, they nurture others beyond reason or rhyme. But the one thing is that they bring them up slowly.
Not protecting Winfree and Lis and protecting Mendoza line Sal’s kid (as the 5th catcher in the 40 man roster) riled me yesterday. But you know, it is what it is.
I saw Waldrop pitch a couple times this year for the Rock Cats. The kid was pressing. The strikes first mentality throughout the organization is fine, but the organization has to realize that different players have different abilities and they need to play on their abilities and not a golden standard. Heck, Randy Johnson is going to the hall of fame and he barely throws a third of his pitches for strikes…
Long discussion, but I hope that the organization matures…
Nice post La Velle.
They got all those spots because they lost so many free agents that year, so this was a big draft for the Twins. It was also highly praised both at the time and within a year or two afterwards, if I remember correctly. It’s interesting to see that it hasn’t turned out terribly well AND that some of the players who were mostly highly praised early ended up not making it.
OK. Let’s not mince any words about it. In general, I think the criticism locally about the Twins drafts has been overblown, but in this case, it looks like this draft wasn’t a success. With five picks in the top 40, you expect an impact player, and it doesn’t look like that’s going to happen.
I suspect they’ll get two major leaguers out of it, which isn’t bad, but Perkins as a solid #3 starter looks to have the highest ceiling of the five. With the injuries, it looks more like bad luck than bad scouting, but it was a golden opportunity - one most organizations don’t see once in a decade - and it hasn’t panned out. It’s a shame, really.
Twins Geek,
Perkins is not a solid #3 starter. He is a borderline 5-6 starter better suited for the pen. Check his peripherals…
In general that was a very poor draft to date. Matt Bush was the 1st pick and he hasn’t done anything. Only real success in the 1st round are Verlander, Stephen Drew, Phil Hughes. Jared Weaver and Billy Butler. That was the year of the Big 3 from Rice and none of those have made an impact yet (Humber included).
How much of the blame for lack of success goes to the Twin organization’s lack of developing players. Did the coaching let these kids down at all? Do the Twins ever look critically at how they try to develop some of this young talent? Sometimes it seems like they try to fit a square peg in a round hole.
jama,
yes they do (try to fit a square peg in a round hole) and I have to admit it is probably more so with the batters than the pitchers and it is obviously bad with the pitchers (Matt Garza or Bobby Korecky - “son you have no future in the club unless you can throw your change up for strikes; but Perk has no change up but he is a local boy and a first round draft pick and you were an afterthought in the Milton trade, so he is ok”)
But most organizations are like this. And most organizations are not successful. It is time for the Twins to break that mentality
“I saw Waldrop pitch a couple times this year for the Rock Cats.”
Since Waldrop had shoulder surgery before the season and didn’t pitch at all in 2008 until the Instructional League, I highly doubt you saw him pitch in New Britain.
Waldrop had shoulder surgery. He wasn’t able to get full range of motion. For the first time in a couple of years, he is now at 100% I actually think that he and Rainville can still have an impact on this organization. Rainville was a hard thrower, but he has learned how to pitch the last two years. IF the velocity can come back, he could be a good mid-rotation guy too.
To be fair, the Twins highest pick in 2004 was #20. By that point in any draft, the “sure things” are gone.
“Not protecting Winfree and Lis and protecting Mendoza line Sal’s kid (as the 5th catcher in the 40 man roster) riled me yesterday.”
You know, there is more to baseball than offensive numbers, and the position where that is most true is catcher. Who is going to draft Lis or Winfree? They don’t have defensive positions, and a team isn’t going to keep a pinch hitter on the bench, especially one that hasn’t hit above AA.
mea culpa. last (2007) season; against Harrisburg and Connecticut.
but he was still pressing.
To be fair, the Twins highest pick in 2004 was #20. By that point in any draft, the “sure things” are gone.
Like Pedroia…
For a team that is really pushing scouting over “numbers” the fact they selected Plouffe over Pedroia tells a lot.
[…] Twins Insider – […]
Everyone selected someone ahead of Pedroia. The Twins weren’t the only team.
And, there are always guys that slip through the cracks… The Twins have drafted guys later in the draft too. Kubel was in the 12th round or so. What round was Hrbek taken? Slowey, Baker, Crain, all second round picks.
But in any draft, the only “sure things” are usually the first couple of picks, and even that isn’t always the case.
We can discuss the Butera situation ad noseum, but my take is this:
The Twins have a starting catcher for the foreseeable future
Good or bad, they have a back up catcher in the majors for next year.
Jose Morales is ahead of Butera
That makes Butera the 4th most ready catcher (potentially) in the organization. I would argue that Josmil Pinto, Wilson Ramos, Alexander Soto (alphabetical order) are and should be ahead of Butera in the potential category.
Why protect him? If his last name was Palacios, would they protect him? methiks not…
Seth,
I do understand that it is not a science and that people are going to slip through the cracks.
But (and that’s a big but) for an organization that is so scout-driven and spends more in cleats than analyzing numbers year after year, “mistakes” like those are less forgivable.
Fine, the Twins want to remain in the 20th century (it’s more comfortable this way for a lot of the brass, I bet), but, unless they show clear results using their approach, they will be way open to criticism…
cmathewson says:
November 20th, 2008 at 8:25 pm
Dan, the Twins had the second youngest team int he league this last year. They completely rebuilt their team between 2002 and 2008 and still managed to contend in five out of the seven interceding years.
crappy division = winning seasons. so what. did they even come close to winning a world series? nope.
winning the central is no special feat.
Shawn in Binghamton says:
November 20th, 2008 at 8:05 pm
Slowey, Baker, Garza, Perkins
I forgot about Garza because they foolishly dealt him away for no apparent reason. sure, the reason they gave was to get a power bat, but anyone with any knowledge of the MLB game at all knew that dealing Garza for Young was a terrible move. get a real slugger and it’s not a problem, but to get young was a total steal for TB. they got rid of an underachiever with attitude problems that they didn’t want anyway for a stud pitcher. it’s a win win situation for the Rays while it was a lose lose for the Twins the second the dumb idea of trading Garza away was even conceived.
oh, slowey and perkins aren’t big impact players. they are a #3 and a #5, low impact starters.
SethSpeaks says:
November 20th, 2008 at 10:14 pm
“Not protecting Winfree and Lis and protecting Mendoza line Sal’s kid (as the 5th catcher in the 40 man roster) riled me yesterday.”
You know, there is more to baseball than offensive numbers, and the position where that is most true is catcher. Who is going to draft Lis or Winfree? They don’t have defensive positions, and a team isn’t going to keep a pinch hitter on the bench, especially one that hasn’t hit above AA.
um, they have Mauer. unfortunately they’ll probably keep his overrated slap happy bat here his entire career. but he’s young, Morales is young, Ramos is young, you don’t need a bunch of catchers on the 40 man when you have a young catcher already in the Majors.
Why all the virnum for Drew Butera? Apparently the Twins believe that he is a major league catcher…right now. Will he hit, probably never, but a backup/#3 catcher doesn’t need to hit all that well to have value.
For those of you that rank Morales, Ramos and Pinto ahead of Butera…Ramos is certainly the #1 catching prospect in the organization and one of the best in minor league baseball. Whereas Morales is certainly an excellent hitter, he has stayed off the DL one season in many and with his re-occurring ankle injury I expect the Twins cannot count on him. Pinto, who knows, but rating a kid with 86 low rookie league at bats ahead of a major league ready defensive catcher…not me.
Dan-
Slowey is a low impact starter? I respectfully disagree…That kid is going to be something special. And with reading your earlier posts, I don’t even know why I am responding to you…a lot of what you say is speculative nonsense
Dan-
Mauer? Slap-happy? What about Mauer’s swing makes you think he is slapping?
“um, they have Mauer. unfortunately they’ll probably keep his overrated slap happy bat here his entire career”
I hope so.
I heard on WGN this morning that the White Sox are going to sign the kid from Cuba. Any word on this?
Five of the first 39 picks, and nary a MLB to show for it yet. None of them look like impact players at this point. That, in and of itself, is bad. The Twins themselves have admitted they don’t have enough impact players in their system, I don’t know why people here insist they do.
Dan,
If you don’t like the Twins style of play, you can watch Braves, Cubs, Yankees, or Red Sox games on TV almost everynight instead.
What do you think of Mauer and Butera now? DAN!!!
Why are the Twins so poor at signing Latin American players? The only recent players I can think of that were originally signed by the Twins are Luis Rivas, Juan Rincon, and Luis Rodriguez, and they must have all been signed around 1996/97.
I think it’s interesting to take a look at who the twins could have taken that would have provided more impact to their current team-
#23 Phil Hughes selectes by the Yankees. Poor 2008 showing but was previous #1 pitching prospect in baseball and should rebound in 2009.
#40 Huston Street- selected by the A’s as one of the most pro-ready players in the draft and has seen success at the ml level.
#46 Yovani Gallardo- drafted by the Yankees Gallardo has shown flashes of greatness mixed with injuries.
#64 Hunter Pence- Stellar rookie season followed by average sophmore year. Has shown the ability to hit for power, average, and steal bases.
#65 Dustin Pedroia- I know he is not a very “toolsy” player but his stats at ASU were undeniable. With a player like Pedroia the Twins would be favorites in the AL next season.
All of that being said, the jury is still our on a lot of the talent the Twins drafted including Swarzak, Plouffe and others
The #1 pick in the 2004 draft was Matthew Bush a SS who was just converted to Pitcher and still hasn’t seen the big leagues yet. I guess we should add Phil Humber to our list since he was #3 overall that year.
Someone probably has statistics on this, but I’m wondering what the percentage probability is for Top 40 draft choices eventually making it to the majors. You know it’s decidedly lower for pitchers because of arm injuries. Fox, Waldrop, and Rainville are case in points for the Twins. Now, please inform us, Dan, or one of you other extraordinarily superior judges of draft talent, you who clearly knew to draft Gallardo ahead of Waldrop, for example. What’s your secret? Are you available as a consultant to the Twins?
birdofprey:
Good question. I don’t have an answer, but if you look at Kevn’s posting above, he only includes two players in the top 40 draftees, Philip Hughes and Houston Street.
Every team in MLB fans on the majority of their draft picks.
Every player cited who “should have been picked by the Twins” instead of their actual pick was also bypassed by all the other teams.
1500 kids are drafted each year and fewer than 100 even get to use an MLB urinal in their careers.
Second-guessing draft picks after the first five or six is assinine.
There is absolutely more luck than skill involved in picking which schoolboy will be a successful baseball player in 4-6 years.
I don’t understand the expectation that the Twins are SUPPOSED to be better at scouting/drafting than everyone else. Just because the Yanks and Bosox can afford high priced FA doesn’t mean they don’t have good scouting. Drafting in any sport is a crap shoot. Don’t tell me the Bosox knew Pedroia was leadpipe lock to make it to the bigs. They just got lucky. What round was Morneau drafted? 3rd? How in the world did Santana wind up as a Rule V? It’s fun to look back at draft choices but to make criticisms like “Oh, the Twins are stupid because they should have taken this guy instead of that guy” is pointless.
um, they have Mauer. unfortunately they’ll probably keep his overrated slap happy bat here his entire career.
Yeah…that’d be terrible to have a 2-time batting champ in the lineup on a consistent basis.
“anyone with any knowledge of the MLB game at all knew that dealing Garza for Young was a terrible move.
Right before 2007 when Delmon was ROY runner-up with 93rbi as a 22 year-old rookie, Baseball America ranked him 3rd, 3rd and 7th best prospect in baseball.
Garza was ranked 17th, 17th and 19th.
Hindsight is 20-20, but to claim that at the time “anyone with any knowledge of the MLB game at all knew that dealing Garza for Young was a terrible move” is CRAP.
But considering the body of work that make up Dan’s posts, I shouldn’t be surprised.
However, I must apologize to my late father who told me often not to argue with drunks or idiots.
My bad!
sane is very correct! and all sports with a draft are the same it is a crap shoot and the best you can hope for is to make fewer mistakes than the other teams. go look at the last 10 drafts and see all the high picks that never sniff the bigs. couple that with ryan being held down by budget and having limited $ we are lucky to be in as good of shape as we are.
It is a crap shoot and if you look at all the players taken in the first round of the 04 draft Justin Verlander is the only one who’s really proven himself.
Another thing that has to be considered in the Twins drafting record are the near “sure things” the Twins had to bypass because they were unsignable by the Twins.(Scott Boras clients for example)
Like Mark Prior.
Walter Johnson,
Dayan Viciedo was signed by the White Sox yesterday to a 4 year $11 mil major league contract. Crazy money for a 19 year old kid. For comparison Tim Beckham the first round draft pick this season signed for a bonus of $6.15 mil (and the Rays have more years of control over him)
Dan = Barreiro
Consider the source.
Also, Thrylos, I don’t think anybody thought Pedroia was a sure thing. He couldn’t even ride half the rides at Disney World at the time.
The other comment I had is on Pinto: a 22 year old should put up those numbers in the Appy league. He’s a decent prospect, but he’s eighth on my list of catchers in the organization. Butera is fifth (I still don’t think you need to protect him, though).
thrylos98,
The other difference is that Viciedo is immediately on the White Sox major league roster and his clock is already ticking toward arbitration and free agency.
They must be very high on that kid.
The draft is more than luck. Here is something I did last year:
I looked at all the players who played in an all star game since 2003. There were 187 players
from those players:
53 (28.3%) were 1st round draft picks
14 (7.4%) 2nd round draft picks
10 (5.3%) 3rd round draft picks
(the other rounds produced much fewer All Stars each)
and
36 (19.2%) were latin american amature signings.
So if a player is drafted in the first round he has a higher probability of being an all-star.
If you look at the first three round draftee players who were all stars, you find that their are not distributed equally among teams (that would have been the random distribution if only ‘luck’ was involved) but there are some teams (Red Sox, Yankees, Cubs, Angels, Reds) with several players in this category. To me this means that these teams are not lucky but they are doing something to tilt the scale. I suspect that it is better scouting…
Luck is a component of whether a particular draftee develops into an all star, but whether an organization has a (statistically significant) higher than average percentage of draftees who develop into all stars does not have much to do with luck
sane,
a lot of people are high on the kid but he never had a real competition. I would suspect that the level of Cuban leagues is about AA.
cmat,
re: Pinto. Josmil Pinto. He did not play in Elz; he played in GCL. Not too many 19 year old (he is 19) catchers put those numbers. He had a .935 OPS. Ben Revere in the same age in the same league has a .830 OPS the year before. And his teammate, Hicks who is a year younger, had a .930 OPS. And every one is raving about them (because they were 1st round picks) but the kid who made the jump from the Dominican Summer league gets second billing.
I have him higher than Soto and Ramos, esp. because of the age.
thrylos98,
Thanks. Very interesting. I have one question: you say that the Red Sox, Yankees, Cubs, Angels, Reds have a larger number of all-stars that were drafted in the first three rounds. But, did those clubs originally draft those players or were they signed as free agents from other teams?
thrylos,
The Red Sox, Yankees, Cubs and Angels offer enough money to sign ANY draftee including Boras clients and kids who SWEAR THEY ARE GOING TO COLLEGE until they are offered $1 million+.
Those teams can draft the unsignables later than small market teams and then sign those unsignables.
That is the scale tilting to which you refer.
That also removes some of the luck from the equation.
If you look at Yankees All-Stars from the past few seasons, only Jeter was drafted in the first three rounds by the Yankees. Posada was a 24th round pick. A-Rod was drafted in the 1st by Seattle. Giambi a second-rounder by Oakland. Sheffield a firt-rounder by the Brewers.
wj,
I am talking about original team draftees.
sane,
I am not sure about how much a factor that is. It is a factor but some other teams that are penny pinching like the Reds are up there too. I will go back to the 1995 draft and take if from there (after the strike - because I think that this is a relevant break point) and analyze the whole thing to get more data. But I seriously suspect scouting has a lot to do with it as well…
Other Yankees All-Stars:
Roger Clemens - 1st round Red Sox
Robin Ventura - 1st round White Sox
Bernie Williams - amateur FA
Alfonso Soriano - originally signed by Hiroshima Carp
Robinson Cano - amateur FA
thrylos are you saying all those teams all have more scouts or just better scouts?
Walter,
So the Yankees All-Stars were drafted early by teams with high draft choices (bad teams) where they became stars and then they went to the Yankees in Free agency or trade.
That’s not any kind of validation of the Yankees (or probably Red Sox, Cubs or Angels) amateur draft choices skill.
thrylos98,
It will be interesting to see what you come up with. I only looked at the past 5 or 6 years and only at the Yankees. While it looks like only Jeter was drafted by the Yankees in the first round, it does show that alot of other Yankee All-Stars were first round picks. I think this supports your first point. You have to expect some first-rounders to be the real deal. Dave Winfield and Joe Mauer are good local examples as they were three-sport stars.
I doubt very much that any team has significantly “better scouts” than the other teams.
IMO, the higher the pick and the amount of money a team can offer are larger factors in draft success than are the “quality of scouts” in that organization.
Walter Johnson, I am looking at the original draft team of the all stars regardless if they made it with that team in the all star game. For example, Carl Everett was a Yankees draft pick and made it to the all star game with the Red Sox and the Rangers. For these purposes I count him as a Yankee pick.
I agree sane i was wondering where he was going with that. The only advantage i could see a team having is with more scouts that cover a broader area.
Thrylos: My bad. I thought you meant Alexander Soto, who had a good year in E-Town. Yes, Pinto is intriguing, but it’s hard to rank him highly because of the whole GCL thing.
FWIW: I agree with Twins Geek. The Twins had a golden opportunity to get six or seven front-line players in the 2004 draft and they only got two or three. At the time, the draft looked a lot better than it does now, and much of that is injury related. Three of the top six pitchers chosen have had major surgery since 2004. The other three are still good prospects.
The biggest disappointment is Plouffe. I’m not about to pronounce him a bust, but he better start playing like the star he was projected to be this year.
http://www.baseballwise.com/club/mlbscoutbureau.html
Here’s an intersting article on the MLB scouting bureau. I tried doing a search for the best scout in MLB but found nothing.
I think scouts that find and sign free agent amateurs are the real stars. The draft is mostly players that everyone knows about and who goes where is mostly determined by draft position.
thrylos,
If I were to pretend that you have unlimited time to devote to this project, I would ask you to calculate the average signing bonus paid to the high draft-pick (1st round, 2nd round and supplemental) all-stars for the top teams and compare them to the Twins high draft-pick bonuses.
Anyone else glad they will never have to see the Twins get their butts kicked by Mike Mussina again?
Matthew LeCroy has taken a job as the manager of the Nationals’ low-A affiliate in Hagerstown.
good for him!!
ggg,
I hope that when LeCroy runs out to talk to his pitcher, he won’t run so slowly that he forgets what he was going to say.
LeCroy’s current playing level is around lo-A, he could pinch hit himself against a lefty 
I hope he never has to pull his catcher out of a game in the middle of an inning.
Walter i’m with you Mussina was a Twins killer. The debate now is wether or not he’s a HOFer. At first i thought no way but i heard an argument the other day about how he pitched in the AL during the steroid boom and still dominated despite that. I just dont think he had any really great years just a lot of solid years.
The Yankees and Red Sox have the advantage that they can pay large enough bonuses to their draft picks to satisfy greedy agents like Boras. The Twins have not done that in the past, which means the Twins are drafting from a smaller pool of prospects.
Mussina is like Ron Gardenhire. He had some very good years but was never considered “the best” in any one year. Mussina was in the top six in Cy Young balloting 9 times (2nd once). One 20-win season, two 19-win seasons, three-18-wins seasons.
Considering Mussina is 30 games shy of 300 wins, three weeks shy of his 40th birthday and just came off a 20-win season, barring injury, a couple more seasons and he would have been a lock for HOF.
I too am glad that Mussina won’t beat us again this year. Personally, I do think Mussina belongs in the HOF. However, I also think that of the four major sports, MLB is the toughest HOF to enter as evidenced by all great players still not enshrined. That said, it would not surprise me if Mussina struggles to get in.
I agree and i’ve always thought of him as a better version of Brad Radke.
Shaitan says:
November 21st, 2008 at 9:35 am
Dan,
If you don’t like the Twins style of play, you can watch Braves, Cubs, Yankees, or Red Sox games on TV almost everynight instead.
I didn’t say anything about their style of play. just a mediocre fielding, slap happy catcher is all. he’s most definitely not worth the 10.5M he’s going to make this season.
Walter Johnson says:
November 21st, 2008 at 9:00 am
“um, they have Mauer. unfortunately they’ll probably keep his overrated slap happy bat here his entire career”
I hope so.
to make a statement like that, you really should use a different name then the greatest pitcher in the history of the game’s name. Big Train is rolling in his grave every time you post anything using his name.
I heard today from a very reliable source that the twins have had discussions with the Rangers to trade Liriano for 4 Young prospects. The rangers are set up the middle but need pitching. The prospects would be infielders and a pitcher. I guess the Twins aren’t that pleased with Liriano even though they would have won the division had they called him up earlier instead of trying to avoid service time problems. What do you think?
The Situationer says:
November 21st, 2008 at 8:59 am
Dan-
Slowey is a low impact starter? I respectfully disagree…That kid is going to be something special. And with reading your earlier posts, I don’t even know why I am responding to you…a lot of what you say is speculative nonsense
no, Liriano is something special, Baker is working his way into something special, Nathan is something special….Slowey is something you pick up in the KMart blue light special isle.
Numbers-wise, I think Mussina is very comparable to Don Sutton, except for number of strike outs. However, Sutton pitched around 30 more innings a year than Mussina. Mussina’s SO/BB ratio was about 3.6, Sutton’s 2.6.
Bill Fort Myers says:
November 21st, 2008 at 2:56 pm
I heard today from a very reliable source that the twins have had discussions with the Rangers to trade Liriano for 4 Young prospects. The rangers are set up the middle but need pitching. The prospects would be infielders and a pitcher. I guess the Twins aren’t that pleased with Liriano even though they would have won the division had they called him up earlier instead of trying to avoid service time problems. What do you think?
you have no reliable source. also, no chance that’ll ever happen. finally, if your source was so reliable, your made up source would’ve made up 4 names the Twins would get in return.
thanks for playing.
BC of ND says:
November 21st, 2008 at 2:42 pm
I agree and i’ve always thought of him as a better version of Brad Radke.
poor mike mussina. is that the best pitcher pitcher you can compare mussina to? what an insult to mike.
The Situationer says:
November 21st, 2008 at 9:00 am
Dan-
Mauer? Slap-happy? What about Mauer’s swing makes you think he is slapping?
no power, ichiro like inordinate amount of singles, yep, totally slap happy.
“Big Train is rolling in his grave every time you post anything using his name.”
Big Train never said “I hope so”??
thrylos -
There is an issue with your study of All-Stars. You have to remember that they are voted on by fans. And fans of the Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, and Cubs get more votes than others. So if two guys have the same numbers, one may be an All-Star while the other may not be, based soley on what market he plays in.
Kevin says:
November 21st, 2008 at 10:17 am
I think it’s interesting to take a look at who the twins could have taken that would have provided more impact to their current team-
#23 Phil Hughes selectes by the Yankees. Poor 2008 showing but was previous #1 pitching prospect in baseball and should rebound in 2009.
#40 Huston Street- selected by the A’s as one of the most pro-ready players in the draft and has seen success at the ml level.
#46 Yovani Gallardo- drafted by the Yankees Gallardo has shown flashes of greatness mixed with injuries.
#64 Hunter Pence- Stellar rookie season followed by average sophmore year. Has shown the ability to hit for power, average, and steal bases.
#65 Dustin Pedroia- I know he is not a very “toolsy” player but his stats at ASU were undeniable. With a player like Pedroia the Twins would be favorites in the AL next season.
All of that being said, the jury is still our on a lot of the talent the Twins drafted including Swarzak, Plouffe and others
that’s not a fair way to look at the draft. Albert Pujols was drafted in round 13. Twins passed on him 13 times. Unlike the drafts of the other 3 leagues, the MLB draft is like deciding a vacation by putting up a map on the wall and blindly throwing a dart at it. If you want to rightfully criticize the Twins for having a bad draft, that’s cool, but looking who they passed on just isn’t fair to them or the process.
Dan,
I think you watched “Mallrats” one too many times.
Pete D says:
November 21st, 2008 at 3:03 pm
thrylos -
There is an issue with your study of All-Stars. You have to remember that they are voted on by fans. And fans of the Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, and Cubs get more votes than others. So if two guys have the same numbers, one may be an All-Star while the other may not be, based soley on what market he plays in.
only the starters are voted on by the fans, the rest of the team is voted on by the players with a few roster spot decisions given to the manager.
Walter Johnson says:
November 21st, 2008 at 3:06 pm
Dan,
I think you watched “Mallrats” one too many times.
what does mallrats have to do with anything. you are destroying a legends name with your idiocy. use some other name like your own, or denny hocking.
sid says:
November 21st, 2008 at 11:37 am
“anyone with any knowledge of the MLB game at all knew that dealing Garza for Young was a terrible move.
Right before 2007 when Delmon was ROY runner-up with 93rbi as a 22 year-old rookie, Baseball America ranked him 3rd, 3rd and 7th best prospect in baseball.
Garza was ranked 17th, 17th and 19th.
Hindsight is 20-20, but to claim that at the time “anyone with any knowledge of the MLB game at all knew that dealing Garza for Young was a terrible move” is CRAP.
Baseball America provides a service, but it’s service is given way too much credibility. Their rankings don’t mean much to me. It’s more of a reference for the general public on who to keep an eye on. When guys like Homer Bailey are constantly in the top 10, it shows how useless the rankings are. Reid Brignac continues to get a high ranking from BA and he’s been awful in the Majors and at AAA. In fact, a lot of their “Top 100″ list is getting old to be considered a top prospect anymore and they are struggling in the minors or the majors, like Brandon Wood and Andy LaRoche for example.
Dan -
“only the starters are voted on by the fans, the rest of the team is voted on by the players with a few roster spot decisions given to the manager.”
I know. And the majority of those starters are from large markets. Are they good? Sure. But they also get elected when someone else might be ‘more’ deserving due to the vote. Also, with the rule that 1 player from every team has to go, sometimes deserving players are left off. It’s a tough way to judge a draft.
For example, I love Adam Dunn. I think he is one of the best offensive players in baseball. Yet he has only been to 1 All-Star game, and none in the time frame that thrylos used.
sane says:
November 21st, 2008 at 12:19 pm
thrylos98,
The other difference is that Viciedo is immediately on the White Sox major league roster and his clock is already ticking toward arbitration and free agency.
They must be very high on that kid.
it worked out horribly for Alexei Ramirez didn’t it? Sure this kid wasn’t drafted, but there are a dozen or so drafted players yearly that sign MLB deals. Most are Boras clients and it’s his way of getting the most money, but it’s not a rarity to see a kid getting a MLB contract.
Pete D says:
November 21st, 2008 at 3:18 pm
Dan -
“only the starters are voted on by the fans, the rest of the team is voted on by the players with a few roster spot decisions given to the manager.”
I know. And the majority of those starters are from large markets. Are they good? Sure. But they also get elected when someone else might be ‘more’ deserving due to the vote. Also, with the rule that 1 player from every team has to go, sometimes deserving players are left off. It’s a tough way to judge a draft.
For example, I love Adam Dunn. I think he is one of the best offensive players in baseball. Yet he has only been to 1 All-Star game, and none in the time frame that thrylos used
If he’d either strike out a whole lot less, or put up Ryan Howard rbi numbers, then Adam Dunn will make the All Star game. However, considering he sucks in the field, has an all or nothing bat, and plays the outfield, chances are he’ll be lucky to make another AS game. If he made the move to the AL and was a full time DH, then his chances would improve greatly. Not much competition for that AS spot.
It’s actually quite simple. If you refuse to sign FAs that are in their prime, if you refuse to trade for players that are in their prime earning years, and you trade your best players when they become “too expensive”, then you NEED to better at drafting and developing talent to be a championship caliber team. The Twins have not, by their own admission around the draf this summer, done a good job of drafting and developing impact players.
cause they’re scared of Boras and apparently hate drafting almost sure thing college infielders. it’s all pitchers and toolsy outfielders.
sure is great to have one guy “straighten out” everyone’s mistakes and ill-conceived opinions here on the old blog…isn’t it?
Dan,
BA, like all the player evaluation services and like the scouting departments of MLB teams aere never 100% correct.
But for your statement “anyone with any knowledge of the MLB game at all knew that dealing Garza for Young was a terrible move” to be correct, BA would have to have NO “knowledge of the MLB game at all”. Therefore your statement is still CRAP.
“If he’d either strike out a whole lot less, or put up Ryan Howard rbi numbers, then Adam Dunn will make the All Star game. However, considering he sucks in the field, has an all or nothing bat, and plays the outfield, chances are he’ll be lucky to make another AS game.”
I’d make the argument that Adam Dunn was a better player than Ryan Howard this year, yet Ryan Howard was 2nd in the MVP voting while Dunn couldn’t get a vote.
And actually, it kind of proves my point. Let’s take a peek at 2004. At the All Star break, Adam Dunn was hitting .263/.407/.566 with 25 homers and 44 RBI. Here are the numbers from some of the other outfielders that were selected ahead of him -
Sammy Sosa - .279/.372/.567 16/39
Carlos Beltran - .276/.365/.548 21/63
Moises Alou - .276/.330/.506 19/49
Miguel Cabrera - .284/.349/.490 14/50
Ken Griffey Jr. - .251/.350/.512 20/60
Dunn was at least as good, if not better, than every single one of those guys. Yet he was home for the All Star break, while the other guys were in Houston.
And I don’t mean to turn this into an ‘Adam Dunn is under-appreciated!’ statement. I’m just trying to point out that using All-Star selections as a measure of how good a player performs isn’t the best or most accurate.
sid, I’m guessin’ old Dan will have a response for you and will clear things up with candor and clarity.
Not that most people want to understand my brain, but this article sums up why I talk the way I do about BA/HR/RBI, and why I talk about OBP and SLG. (?Are we allowed to post links?) I don’t think we are.
Go to CNNSI and read Joe Posnanski’s blog from today.
So next time you point out how great someone’s BA is, and I point out they don’t walk and don’t slug, this article should pop into your brain. Or not.
But, Adam Dunn is GREATLY underappreciated. OBP and SLG are more important thatn SOs any day.
SOs are often the trade-off for a high SLG, are they not?
mike,
Lots of people post links.
Dan:
Slow day for questions or comments on KFAN?
Dan, I’m not sure. I’ve never studied that. But, dunn is ripped mercilessly for his high SO rate, yet rarely praised for his high OBP and SLG.
cmathewson,
He is not Bareiro. Click on his name when he posts, it takes you to his blog.
MWW - “cause they’re scared of Boras and apparently hate drafting almost sure thing college infielders.”
Who are the “sure-thing” college infielders that they have missed?
Pino, Sosa, and Lis, all would have made my list to keep.
Butera, Ruiz, and possibly Macri would have been let go.
Reggie Jackson is the all-time leader in SO, but 97th in slugging percentage.
Sammy Sosa is second all-time in SO, 39th in SLG.
G.H. Ruth the all-time leader in SLG is 88th in SO.
sid says:
November 21st, 2008 at 3:33 pm
Dan,
BA, like all the player evaluation services and like the scouting departments of MLB teams aere never 100% correct.
But for your statement “anyone with any knowledge of the MLB game at all knew that dealing Garza for Young was a terrible move” to be correct, BA would have to have NO “knowledge of the MLB game at all”. Therefore your statement is still CRAP.
If BA thought it was a good deal for the Twins, then I really do question their knowledge of baseball.
Seth, it was our genius Dan who made the stunning discovery that the Twins have perennially despised drafting sure-fire infielders, which he subtly links by rhetorical inference to their hatred of Boras and their their irrational idolatry of toolsy outfielders.
Pete D says:
November 21st, 2008 at 3:40 pm
Sammy Sosa - .279/.372/.567 16/39
Carlos Beltran - .276/.365/.548 21/63
Moises Alou - .276/.330/.506 19/49
Miguel Cabrera - .284/.349/.490 14/50
Ken Griffey Jr. - .251/.350/.512 20/60
Dunn was at least as good, if not better, than every single one of those guys. Yet he was home for the All Star break, while the other guys were in Houston.
And I don’t mean to turn this into an ‘Adam Dunn is under-appreciated!’ statement. I’m just trying to point out that using All-Star selections as a measure of how good a player performs isn’t the best or most accurate.
Dunn was as good as them how? His OPS was as good as theirs so he was just as good? you realize power boosts OPS a great deal don’t you?
Sounds to me that you think Dunn should’ve made it because he hits a lot of homers. Pretty bad way to decide who is an all star and who isn’t.
As for the all star selections, being an all star means very little. sure, some players enjoy going to the game and experiencing it, but there are a lot that couldn’t care less and guys like manny and pedro that always get out of going.
Dan, have you begun publishing ? If so, we can all cancel our BA subscriptions immediately.
birdofprey says:
November 21st, 2008 at 5:06 pm
Seth, it was our genius Dan who made the stunning discovery that the Twins have perennially despised drafting sure-fire infielders, which he subtly links by rhetorical inference to their hatred of Boras and their their irrational idolatry of toolsy outfielders.
your point is? i said and it’s true, and considering most of their top picks haven’t worked out, the Twins drafting phiosophy must change.
birdofprey says:
November 21st, 2008 at 5:11 pm
Dan, have you begun publishing ? If so, we can all cancel our BA subscriptions immediately.
probably be the better option considering BA’s analysis of players is less then desired.
Funny thing, Dan, but a bunch of us were having a nice exchange about drafting, about what constitutes success at it, about whether the Twins are competitive at it, etc. Most of us aren’t steadfast in our views about it, which is why we were having this exchange, you see? And I guess we could have saved wear and tear on our typewriter ribbons and just accepted the opinion of the resident genius. That would be you, Dan. That’s my point.
you don’t have to take my word for anything, but it would be in your best interest no doubt.
Seth, I never said this, nor would I:
MWW - “cause they’re scared of Boras and apparently hate drafting almost sure thing college infielders.”
“cause they’re scared of Boras and apparently hate drafting almost sure thing college infielders.”
MWW, you may never have said this, nor would you, but it would be in your best interest to take Dan’s word for it. No doubt.
dAN,
“If BA thought it was a good deal for the Twins, then I really do question their knowledge of baseball.”
You have a right to question anything.
BUT if you state “anyone with any knowledge of the MLB game at all knew that dealing Garza for Young was a terrible move” at the time of the trade, you are exposing your own failings in the areas of memory, awareness and arrogance.
But you have every right to do that, also.
Dan, your an extremly ingorant person. Sid, Seth, Cmath, Sane, and other rational posters, just ignore him. To the others who constantly say how the Twins do this and that wrong, Why do you follow them?
Thrylos98, if you don’t like their management, their players, their organizational philosophies, Why are you here? Follow who you feel does it right. Who ever that maybe.
Dan the hockey fan: I guess it’s true that it’s tough to understand the subtleties of two sports at once. Stick to hockey, that at least is involves a small talent pool.
Rainville had some very good starts at NBritain in 08, but also some very bad ones. He did finish the season strongly. –As for Waldrop, he never pitched in NBritain in 08; he missed most of the year with arm trouble. He had a few weeks in NB in 07, but struggled.
Ranville had only bad stats: a 5.49 FIP with 22 HRs allowed in 123 IP and a GB % of 32 % is scary bad. Perhaps he regains his fastball and becomes the pitcher he was prior to his injury. If not, he’s done.
sid says:
November 21st, 2008 at 6:07 pm
dAN,
“If BA thought it was a good deal for the Twins, then I really do question their knowledge of baseball.”
You have a right to question anything.
BUT if you state “anyone with any knowledge of the MLB game at all knew that dealing Garza for Young was a terrible move” at the time of the trade, you are exposing your own failings in the areas of memory, awareness and arrogance.
But you have every right to do that, also.
what? i have been consistent about that trade since the second i heard. i was and am happy to get rid of bartlett, but getting rid of garza was a terrible move and it looks even worse now.
JA says:
November 21st, 2008 at 7:38 pm
Dan, your an extremly ingorant person. Sid, Seth, Cmath, Sane, and other rational posters, just ignore him. To the others who constantly say how the Twins do this and that wrong, Why do you follow them?
Thrylos98, if you don’t like their management, their players, their organizational philosophies, Why are you here? Follow who you feel does it right. Who ever that maybe.
i’m not ignorant. actually, i may come across as a bit arrogant, but really it’s a lot of self confidence and the knowledge that when I say something baseball related, i am always right.
cmathewson says:
November 21st, 2008 at 8:28 pm
Dan the hockey fan: I guess it’s true that it’s tough to understand the subtleties of two sports at once. Stick to hockey, that at least is involves a small talent pool.
I know it sucks for that when it comes to baseball I’m always right but deal with it.
Dan equals Craig???
Or Dan equals partially inverted Craig. Anyone who says something repeatedly and says that they are right…usually aren’t. You can’t be steadfast on opinions and expect that Everyone is going to like them.
When I say that acquiring Blake, Hardy, and Huff (or at least the first 2) would make us a pretty good-great team, I’ve at least got the stats to back it up.
Saying we shouldn’t have given up Garza is fine too. But to say that DY isn’t going to pan out (Be worth Garza) is too early to tell, and is just an opinion. It’s great when you have self confidence, but don’t shove opinions in people’s faces as if they’re facts.
Lastly, Props to Adam Dunn. Would sign him in a heartbeat.
How long is it going to take for the FA/trade market to get rolling?
Can’t wait for MLB network.
January 1st!!!
Dan said…when was the last time the Twins actually drafted a guy that has made a big impact on the team? Span, but other then me, nobody thought he had a chance to succeed in the league, even the Twins management doubted him.
Regarding Span…”other then me”! This is the funniest self indulgent blog comment I think I’ve ever read. Dan, please let us know when you’ve arrived safely back on planet earth.
Dan,
Your statement was “anyone with any knowledge of the MLB game at all knew that dealing Garza for Young was a terrible move”
Whether the trade works out (or not) has no relevance to the falsehood of that statement.
At the time MANY baseball “experts” thought the Twins made an astute trade,
because Delmon was universally a higher rated prospect than Garza.
Therefore your statement is CRAP!
Your justification of the statement, by citing the short-term results of the trade is CRAP!
Your statement, that you are always right is, of course CRAP!
If you can’t admit your mistake, then YOU BECOME WHAT YOU SAY………..CRAP!
Please don’t feed the trolls, it only emboldens them to become bigger hoseheads.
Dan,
“what? i have been consistent about that trade since the second i heard”
Why would anyone believe that statement (or any statement) which comes from someone who is lying (by definition) when he declares himself to be “always right”?
cmath,
I’m sorry.
That much arrogance and ignorance in one package is hard to ignore.
However, I will do my best to take your good advice.
Please don’t feed the trolls, it only emboldens them to become bigger hoseheads.
You are right. I don’t visit here often so I didn’t know his track record. Clearly, he’s a troll and better to be leave him alone. They tend to thrive on this stuff rather then address getting a life.
I’ve been reading some of the Tampa Bay Rays blogs from back around the time right after the Young-Garza trade was made. The majority of Rays fans thought the trade was a huge mistake too - for the Rays.
Even if the Garza/Young trade doesn’t work out, its a gamble that i supported. The Twins traded for strength to fill a hole. It is also too early to give up on Young.
Dan…you obviously know nothing about the Twins. Drafting pitchers is the smartest thing to do because its easier to evaluate how pitchers would fare in the majors as opposed to how well infielders will hit. Not to mention the trade value good pitchers bring to Twins. Look at how many teams are desperately looking for pitchers. As for the outfield, the Twins should have one of the strongest outfields for years to come. Dumping Smith is flat out stupid because he learned from the best in Terry Ryan. Dumping Gardenhire is one of the more stupid things I’ve heard in my life. Where do you think the Twins would be without those two leading the organization?? My guess is the same level the Royals and Pirates are on. Go look at how many prospects actually make an impact in the majors and how well the Twins have actually done in drafting players. Then come back and say something with intelligent.
<I.TK(2) says:
November 22nd, 2008 at 2:49 am
Dan equals Craig???
Or Dan equals partially inverted Craig. Anyone who says something repeatedly and says that they are right…usually aren’t. You can’t be steadfast on opinions and expect that Everyone is going to like them.
When I say that acquiring Blake, Hardy, and Huff (or at least the first 2) would make us a pretty good-great team, I’ve at least got the stats to back it up.
Saying we shouldn’t have given up Garza is fine too. But to say that DY isn’t going to pan out (Be worth Garza) is too early to tell, and is just an opinion. It’s great when you have self confidence, but don’t shove opinions in people’s faces as if they’re facts.
Lastly, Props to Adam Dunn. Would sign him in a heartbeat.
different lineups, different players, different outcomes, you have no stats to back up anything because all you cna do is what anyone can do and that is guess what the final outcome will be. However, in y case, I’m simply that good at talent evaluating that I can say without a shadow of a doubt that Garza is better then Young will ever be. It was a bad trade from the word go. Secondly, I can say without a shadow of a doubt, that if Casey Blake comes here he’ll be much less effective then he’d be just about anywhere else. Finally, Hardy and Huff would make the Twins a good team, but there is no chance the Twins get Huff.
candleflame says:
November 22nd, 2008 at 8:46 am
Dan said…when was the last time the Twins actually drafted a guy that has made a big impact on the team? Span, but other then me, nobody thought he had a chance to succeed in the league, even the Twins management doubted him.
Regarding Span…”other then me”! This is the funniest self indulgent blog comment I think I’ve ever read. Dan, please let us know when you’ve arrived safely back on planet earth.
what? everyone, including the Twins, gave up on Span. He was completely out of the picture. I’ve been saying for 2 years they needed to get him up into the Majors. Bout damn time they listened. I was the 1 man Span bandwagon, it’s nice to see everyone decided to come on board finally.
sid says:
November 22nd, 2008 at 10:28 am
Dan,
Your statement was “anyone with any knowledge of the MLB game at all knew that dealing Garza for Young was a terrible move”
Whether the trade works out (or not) has no relevance to the falsehood of that statement.
At the time MANY baseball “experts” thought the Twins made an astute trade,
because Delmon was universally a higher rated prospect than Garza.
Therefore your statement is CRAP!
those “experts” you rely so heavily on are a bunch of fools then. There is a 100% chance that Garza will always be better then Young. Young is what he is, a mediocre fielding role player. He’s Casey Blake of the outfield.
sid says:
November 22nd, 2008 at 10:39 am
Dan,
“what? i have been consistent about that trade since the second i heard”
Why would anyone believe that statement (or any statement) which comes from someone who is lying (by definition) when he declares himself to be “always right”?
believe what you want. I said it the day of the trade and will continue to say it, it was a terrible trade that should’ve never been made. Garza is a whole lot better then Young will ever be and the Twins completely got robbed in that deal. Smith was so eager to put his stamp on things early he gave away a stud for some mediocre hack.
sid says:
November 22nd, 2008 at 10:45 am
cmath,
I’m sorry.
That much arrogance and ignorance in one package is hard to ignore.
However, I will do my best to take your good advice
no arrogance, no ignorance, all confidence. I am right regardles if you think so or not. in the end i’m always proven right so deal with it.
Walter Johnson says:
November 22nd, 2008 at 11:28 am
I’ve been reading some of the Tampa Bay Rays blogs from back around the time right after the Young-Garza trade was made. The majority of Rays fans thought the trade was a huge mistake too - for the Rays.
Rays don’t have fans and the few they do have are apparently clueless too.
Shawn in Binghamton says:
November 22nd, 2008 at 12:36 pm
Even if the Garza/Young trade doesn’t work out, its a gamble that i supported. The Twins traded for strength to fill a hole. It is also too early to give up on Young.
what strength? Blackburn is a #5, Perkins a #4. Twins could’ve had 2 #1s plus Baker and Slowey. They had no hole in the outfield. They knew they’d be getting an outfielder for Santana. So they had Gomez, Span, Cuddyer, Kubel and Monroe. They destroyed a great rotation for a part they didn’t need and settled for an above average rotation.
Jim says:
November 22nd, 2008 at 3:28 pm
Dan…you obviously know nothing about the Twins. Drafting pitchers is the smartest thing to do because its easier to evaluate how pitchers would fare in the majors as opposed to how well infielders will hit. Not to mention the trade value good pitchers bring to Twins. Look at how many teams are desperately looking for pitchers. As for the outfield, the Twins should have one of the strongest outfields for years to come. Dumping Smith is flat out stupid because he learned from the best in Terry Ryan. Dumping Gardenhire is one of the more stupid things I’ve heard in my life. Where do you think the Twins would be without those two leading the organization?? My guess is the same level the Royals and Pirates are on. Go look at how many prospects actually make an impact in the majors and how well the Twins have actually done in drafting players.
1. Actually, it’s easier to project a bat then an arm.
2. Smith isn’t a GM, he’s a paper pusher playing GM. He knows nothing about talent evaluating. Just about negotiating contracts. Playing GM isn’t the right role for him.
3. Ron is the reason the Twins haven’t won a World Series yet. He’s had little to do with the team’s success. He’s one of the worst in game managers I have ever seen.
4. Twins will have one of the strongest fielding outfields for years to come, but offensively, not even close.
5. You do realize there has been little turnover in the Twins scouting department for 2 decades. It was Andy MacPhail that put them into place. Ryan, Smith, and Gardenhire had nothing to do with it.
Dear Dan,
Great.
Sincerely,
TK(2)
Those of you who say that no one, or only one person was behind Span isn’t true…although I will admit there was some real animosity towards this young man. I recall the grief that I had dumped upon me on another site that will remain nameless after ranking him the #2 position player in the system following his 2006 season. Kudos to Denard for sticking with it and proving so very many people wrong.
They had no hole in the outfield.
Bull. Straight up bull. And you know it.
They had Cuddyer, and Kubel at DH.
They’re “projected” CF was either going to be Span or Pridie. And FEW saw Span as having any potential with the team.
About 90% of people who told you that it was a mistake to not bring up Span right away is exercising hindsight bias to the most extreme degree, and was likely one of the 95% of Twins fans who were at Span’s throat during his first trip up early in 2008.
arlighty,
back to the original thing after a long weekend away from the internet…
If I were to pretend that you have unlimited time to devote to this project, I would ask you to calculate the average signing bonus paid to the high draft-pick (1st round, 2nd round and supplemental) all-stars for the top teams and compare them to the Twins high draft-pick bonuses.
sane,
I’ll do that and it’s not going to take unlimited time. But I think I will also revise my actual premise and look at all teams all draft picks since 1994 and grade them based on what they accomplished. I will then factor signing bonuses…
sounds ok?
btw, JA,
Thrylos98, if you don’t like their management, their players, their organizational philosophies, Why are you here? Follow who you feel does it right. Who ever that maybe
hmmm. there are some fans who are jumping on bandwagons based on whether a team is winning or whether they like their “philosophy”. On the other hand there are some die hard fans (me included) who want their team to win and are critical about it because they see that the team has all the potential to win but it doesn’t for some reason. (Heck, most Vikings fans would fall in this category, btw). I like their players (most of them, I don’t think that Buscher should have a major league job or Perkins should be a starting pitcher or that Punto should start for a competitive team, but that’s about it, don’t know where you got that ‘i’don’t like their players’ thing) But I think that there are a lot of organizational things that are restrictive and work against my team winning. If you want to disagree, disagree with arguments, if you want to preach, go attend Friday night mass…
T says:
November 23rd, 2008 at 2:44 pm
They had no hole in the outfield.
Bull. Straight up bull. And you know it.
They had Cuddyer, and Kubel at DH.
They’re “projected” CF was either going to be Span or Pridie. And FEW saw Span as having any potential with the team.
put down the bong…
they had Cuddyer, Kubel, Monroe, and they knew they’d be getting Martinez or Gomez from the Mets, plus Span in the minors. Pridie came along with Young.
The few that saw Span as having any potential with this team is me. I knew it, I said it, I preached it. I was the 1 man Span bandwagon.
thrylos98 says:
November 23rd, 2008 at 8:12 pm
Thrylos98, if you don’t like their management, their players, their organizational philosophies, Why are you here? Follow who you feel does it right. Who ever that maybe
hmmm. there are some fans who are jumping on bandwagons based on whether a team is winning or whether they like their “philosophy”. On the other hand there are some die hard fans (me included) who want their team to win and are critical about it because they see that the team has all the potential to win but it doesn’t for some reason. (Heck, most Vikings fans would fall in this category, btw). I like their players (most of them, I don’t think that Buscher should have a major league job or Perkins should be a starting pitcher or that Punto should start for a competitive team, but that’s about it, don’t know where you got that ‘i’don’t like their players’ thing) But I think that there are a lot of organizational things that are restrictive and work against my team winning. If you want to disagree, disagree with arguments, if you want to preach, go attend Friday night mass…
+1
Hey, I said it all year. I would’ve taken Span out of ST and let Gomez develop. Some of you may recall this, but if you want to not believe me, check these blogs back to ST. Trading Span now, for almost anyone, would be a bad idea.
Dan says:
what strength? Blackburn is a #5, Perkins a #4. Twins could’ve had 2 #1s plus Baker and Slowey. They had no hole in the outfield. They knew they’d be getting an outfielder for Santana. So they had Gomez, Span, Cuddyer, Kubel and Monroe. They destroyed a great rotation for a part they didn’t need and settled for an above average rotation.
No. THe whole they had and STILL HAVE his a lack of RH power. Hence the Young trade.
oops i meant ‘hole’ not whole, and ‘is’ not his.
wow. that was pathetic.
From Dan “i’m not ignorant. actually, i may come across as a bit arrogant, but really it’s a lot of self confidence and the knowledge that when I say something baseball related, i am always right.”
Dan, as soon as you say that you are always right, you were just wrong again.
I was excited to see 153 posts under the 2004 Draft article, but there are lots of off-topic petty geek-slapping going on here.
Every draft is different. You can’t always draft pitchers, or outfielders, or high school kids.
Since drafting Joe Mauer, the Twins have done a good job not wasting high picks on catchers.
In the mid 90’s, the Twins did a good job of drafting college players that could quickly help a struggling major league club. Since that time, they have drafted more high school players because that is where the better value was. This happened because MoneyBall came out and several teams overdrafted college talent during those years.
After Glen Perkins, Jay Rainville was my favorite of the five early picks in 2004. Too bad Rainville hasn’t been healthy. He was similar to Philip Hughes in tools and talent when drafted.
Some of my draft philosophy:
Round 1, draft best player available
Rd 2, draft best high schooler available
Rd 3-6, draft best player available
Rd 7, draft best college hitter available
Over the years 1993-2008, the 2nd and 7th rounds are the only time you look for something specific, in my opinion. Drafting for major league need never works. Drafting the best player available that will also improve a noticeable farm system weaknesses works much better.
I’m sorry, but whoever that joker is that’s claiming that Mauer is an overrated slap-happy hitter shouldn’t be allowed to post anything, ever again, about baseball. Mauer is a Tony Gwynn-type hitter, a George Brett-type hitter.
Gwynn (avg season): .338/9 HR/ 36 2B/ 76 RBI/ .388 OBP/ .847 OPS
Brett: .305/ 19 HR/ 40 2B/ 95 RBI/ .369 OBP/ .856 OPS
Mauer: .317/ 13 HR/ 37 2B/ 87 RBI/ .399 OBP/ .856 OPS
You lose, chump.
Also, Perkins is a #5, #6 starter, nothing more. Hiding the ball is his best attribute; Slowey is a slightly less talented Radke. I’d say he’s a fringe-#2, great #3 starter.
The Twins would do well to put more effort into finding infielders through the draft; I’m a fan of the Aaron Hicks pick, but I would have like a SS prospect there instead, if one was available. What can you do?
Twins rotation:
Liriano: Solid #1, potentially dominant
Baker: Fringe #1, Great #2
Slowey: Fringe #2, Great #3
Blackburn: Solid #4
Perkins: #5, #6.
Trade Perk, Mulvey, Harris and Robertson for Hardy and a AA pitching prospect.
LEN3: You have to ban Dan. He expects everyone just to bow to his omniscience and listen with rapt attention at his lunatic rantings. I have no problem with trolls: just ignore them. But when 2/3 of the comments are from one guy who openly says he’s never wrong about anything, it ruins the whole experience. I won’t come back as long as he is dominating the conversation, and I know I’m not alone. Unless you want all your comments to come from him, he gives you little choice.
Dan’s an idiot!!!
Dan is opinionated but not an idiot, if you are looking for people who should be banned look at Top Dogg/DrDon type of trolls…
DrDon is a good guy. He is just more into enjoying the game and less into the details.
Shawn,
DrDon and Topp Dogg is the same guy
I don’t believe they are. One doesn’t like you. The other just doesn’t care about sabr numbers
