Twins break off talks with Casey Blake
Posted on December 6th, 2008 – 10:25 AMBy La Velle
The Twins on Friday ended their pursuit of Casey Blake after the sides couldn’t work out a deal for the free agent third baseman, a person with knowledge of the negotiations said.
Unless there’s another team involved, it looks like the Dodgers are in the lead for Blake. Indications are the Twins wouldn’t guarantee a third year in their offer, sticking to two years and an option.
The Twins now will reach out to other teams about a deal for a third baseman or shortstop who can provide some offense. There’s always a chance that the Twins will resume talks with Jim McDowell, Blake’s agent, but with the shortstop market beginning to crystallize and the winter meetings about to kick off in Las Vegas, the Twins are pursuing other leads.
“We’ve got to move here,” the source said. “There are too many things going on.”
The Twins are expected to have discussions with several clubs about infield help.
That includes the Colorado Rockies about Garrett Atkins. The Twins have expressed interest in Atkins before, but the Rockies’ demands have been too high (Kevin Slowey and Denard Span). Maybe the sides can find a common ground in one of the suites at the Bellagio hotel, where the winter meetings will take place.
The Twins might check in with the Mariners about Adrian Beltre. Like the Rockies, the Mariners placed a huge price tag on Beltre when the Twins inquired about him during the regular season. But new Seattle GM Jack Zduriencik might offer a fresh perspective.
The Twins also like Phillies infield prospect Jason Donald, who went .407/.476/.640 in the Arizona Fall League this year. Who wouldn’t like him? But the Phillies might want to hold on to their stud prospect with Chase Utley and Pedro Feliz working their way back from injuries.
The way things are going, the Twins aren’t ruling out making a play for Pirates shortstop Jack Wilson.
There doesn’t appear to be any interest in free agent shortstop Rafael Furcal, given the price and recent injury history. And the Brewers have not shown any willingness to trade shortstop J.J. Hardy.
The Twins feel they need to act fast because Edgar Renteria signed with the Giants, Khalil Greene was traded to the Cardinals and the Braves traded Brent Lillibridge to the White Sox - which means Atlanta must hold on to Yunel Escobar. The list of available shortstops has shrunk.
They know there are teams willing to make deals. Now they just have to find a match. But remember this: In order to deal for a good player, the Twins might have to give up one of their five young starters. If you had J.J. Hardy, who would you want in return for a sure-handed shortstop who can hit 25 homers?
Delmon Young as part of a package? There have been rumblings that the Twins have shopped him around, but I was told yesterday and this morning that’s not true. Yes, the Twins have fielded calls about Young. But they aren’t giving him away. They like the possibility of having great outfield depth next season. And, I was told, they haven’t forgotten what happened when they gave up on David Ortiz.
If they get a third baseman, they could live with a platoon of Matt Tolbert and Brendan Harris at short (although they want Nick Punto back). If they get the shortstop they want, they can live with Harris and Brian Buscher at third.
And the Twins still plan to scrounge around for a reliever at the winter meetings.
That’s all for now. Back to Saturday morning chores……
268 Responses to "Twins break off talks with Casey Blake"
Sounds like we’re going to stand pat…
Seems reasonable given some of the terriblly lopsided offers that are out there.
Thank God we’re done pursuing a mediocre 35-year old. The thought of the Twins giving him a three-year deal scared me.
I like hearing that the Twins are going to hastily give Young away too–you’ve got to give him more than one year in MN to prove his worth.
Any of those lopsided deals would be horrible. Perhaps the new Seattle GM can work with Billy Smith and we can get Beltre for a pitcher and a prospect.
Cheers.
Denard Span and Slowey is WAY TOO MUCH for Garrett Atkins.
I’m sorry to hear about the blake situation.
I have been ill for the last few days and didn’t see that Greene went to St.L.
I think they need to concentrate on finding a SS. If they get Beltre and he’s cheap (not a top 5 starter) nice, if not… keep Buscher and Harris platooning at 3rd. It’s similar to the Pags and Leuis platoon.
I also haven’t heard anyting on Juan Cruz. I think he would take the relief core over the top.
Can’t say I’m disappointed with the Twins backing off Blake. I hope they shift their attention from third base to shortstop. I really do like the Buscher/Harris platoon at third. Any chance Yunel Escobar would be made available by the Braves?
Who/what did the Twins get in return for Ortiz? I don’t remember the details of that trade. I thought the Twins lost him to free agency.
Casey Blake a 3 year deal that was 7.5, 7.0, and 5.5 would have worked. Paying a player 5.5 to be a utility player by his 3rd year isn’t so bad…
And people seem to look at Blake’s .270 20 homers and 75RBI every season like he’s not that good. He isn’t Mike Schmidt or George Brett by any means, but he is 10 times better than anything else we have as an option at 3rd base currently.
By signing a free agent you don’t have to give up your talent, and when you see teams wanting things like Slowey and Span for a player that is worth Cuddyer, Robertson and Duensing… that’s scary.
La Velle when are you going to get your own radio show?
Maybe PA, La Velle, and the Producer?
LEN3-
Do the Twins have any interest in Crede?I haven’t heard what kind of years/contract he is looking for.Seems as though he might be a cheaper if riskier option,given his back problems.
I like the Twins approach to Blake.If he can get three years from the Didgers great,but it’s a wise choice on the part of Minnesota.
I had hoped that if the Twins could have signed Blake to two tears plus the option they could then go after a SS in trade.But it doesn’t seem like they have enough chips to accomplish both a new 3B and SS via the trade route.
If thats the case I would rather they go after Hardy seriously,even if it means giving up a starter.Hardy is young,provides power at the postion and is still under team control for a couple more years, if I’m not mistaken.I could live with the Buscher/Harris platoon at third more so than the suggested Tolbert/Harris combo at SS. Tolbert needs to be the new Punto and the Twins need to cutr ties with LNP.As long as he is around Gardenhire will find AB’s for him.
Just like normal the twins back down. whats wrong with blake? at least we would have have something at third that can hit. Like BC said you dont have to give up a player if you sign him as a free agent. I just dont see 3 yrs 6 mil per as a big deal.
Big surprise the Twins wouldn’t offer Blake three years. They are so unbelieveably cheap and that is the reason they will never be a real contender for the World Series. Now they are possibly going to give up a whole bunch of talent for a 3B who won’t be as good as Blake. Why do we even get our hopes up on this site. They are moving into a new stadium for crying our loud! Get the crowbar and open Uncle Carl’s wallet for a measly six million dollars. I am so tired of hearing why we can never make a move (money), except for stupid trades where we get fleeced. Will it ever change?!
The list of available shortstops has shrunk
not so sure about that… the As broke talks with Furcal, so he is still a possibility. With Everett, Punto, Wilson, Uribe, Izturis, Cora in the market, teams who have to spend less than the Twins have ready options. Cabrera is still on the market. There are fewer teams looking for shortstops at this point (Chicago, St. Louis and Giants added new shortstops) than there are shortstops out there.
The Twins have 4 internal options: Harris, Tolbert, Tolleson and Machado. The can wait until January/February, when Furcal’s price falls off to make him an 1 or 2 year offer and if it is not going to happen, they could let these 4 fight it off.
Third base is a bigger need and glad to see that did not offer a third year to Blake.
Could a Twins/Rockies mega deal be on the horizon, with the Twins getting Huston Street and Garrett Atkins and giving up a starter, Young and a couple of really good prospects?
whats wrong with blake?
at his third year in a 3 year contract he would have been a 39 year old making $6-7M. That’s plenty wrong.
dd
The fact that the Dodgers and the Twins were the only two teams who have shown major interst in him tells you something.I don’t blame Blake for seeking a three year deal,but he will be 38 in that third year.It wil be intersting to see what he does get.
The Twins do need to watch how they spend their money.Mauer is going to need to be re signed after ‘10.That is going to cost them a bundle.If the big three of Baker,Liriano ,and Slowey perform as we all hope,they ae going to command big money as well.I would look for the Twins to try and tie up at least two of these three to longer term contacts before ‘10.
I have not heard the name Jason Donald before.
that would be great!
What do the world champs want for that guy?
Good about Blake, three years is too much and I am glad the twins are smart about that.
Now let’s focus on the bullpen and shortstop
Although this does not have much relevance with this article or comments….I have no idea why everyone is so down on Delmon. I totally agree he will never be the superstar everyone projected, but he will improve some. Look at Morneau, his 2005 # were horrible and we almost traded him for aubrey huff. Now look where he is. If delmon can ever learn to hit at the start of the season he would hit around 300 with low 20 homeruns. Also, even the # he put up last year were not terrible! Around 290 with 10 homeruns. That’s a good average with below average power…an average LF. Also when people say he was a terrible fielder, he was pretty bad, BUT he had many outfield assists which makes him average defensively. If he never had such high standards he would be looked as an average outfielder, not a horrid and awful outfielder.
Cheapskate Pohlad and the Dumbass Front Office at their Finest YET AGAIN!
thrylos98 says:
December 6th, 2008 at 11:04 am
whats wrong with blake?
at his third year in a 3 year contract he would have been a 39 year old making $6-7M. That’s plenty wrong.
Your statement is incorrect. Casey Blake will not turn 38 until August 23 of his third season with the Twins. He would not be 39 until almost the end of a fourth year. He isn’t going to suddenly hit a wall when the calendar says he is 38 near the end of his third year with the Twins. For crying out loud, spend some money just once!
Cheapskate Pohlad and the Moronic Front Office at their Finest YET AGAIN!
To get Jason Donald it would probably take Delmon Young. Stud short stops are hard to come by, they don’t come cheap. And the Phils need a Left Fielder.
I am not sure that I understand (ok, I do understand that it is because of the AFL numbers but these are not great indicators of success) all the hype about Jason Donald. Here is a comparison with 2 players in the Twins’ system:
Jason Donald (Philies, AA 2008): .307/.391/.497
Steven Tolleson (Twins, AA 2008): .300/.382/.466
Alejandro Machado (Twins, AAA 2008): .338/.376/.472
All this speculation about what the Twins might or might not do is laughable. In the end they will NEVER do anything that actually improves the club via free agency. Get ready for more broken down old junk that will be cut around the all star break. They will never ever do anything substantial when it comes to free agency. New stadium this, revenue streams that. Never. Ever.
BC.B - I believe Cruz is a tier 1 free agent, who was offered arbitration by AZ. There is no way the Twins would give up a #1 draft pick for a middle reliever, who has trouble throwing strikes at times.
I’m glad the Twins showed restraint on Blake’s 3rd year. I’m thinking the Twins will have to give up a starter to get someone. I’m all for Perkins being that guy. Hate to give up a lefty though.
I really don’t see the horrible problem with paying Blake for 3 years.
At his worst he’s more productive than Michael Cuddyer for less money at a more crucial place.
Kity Kaat, alright 38…
Also, that 3rd year (2011), is the first year after Mauer’s contract expires, the year that Kubel becomes a free agent and the last year of club control for Baker, Young and Liriano. You cannot look at individual contracts without looking at the big picture…
So, if you had to chose between re-signing Mauer and/or Kubel in 2011 and a third year of Blake, it becomes a non-brainer
Well they need something to help out the left side of the infield. It is not pretty over there. Blake seems kind of pricey for his age at this point. I just hope we gather up better players than we did last year. I wouldn’t be opposed to trading Young (the outfield is full) but I wouldn’t just give him away for cheap either.
kity kaat
for a player with his stats to have any value, he will have to play 3rd - can’t DH. And 3rd baseman break down fast
Its nice to see smith play it smart. He will spend money, but not on stupid long term contracts that bog us down.
If we have to give up the farm to trade for a 3rd baseman or shortstop why not look at Joe Crede. He would not cost us a draft pick and can be rested with Harris and Buscher around. Plus he hits great at the Metrodome. If we can’t trade for Hardy, or Escobar lets go after Furcal as he won’t cost us a pick either. J.J. Hardy would be my first choice at short but not at the expense of Baker, Slowey, or a Liriano. A healthy Crede and Hardy on the left side of the infield would be an exciting thing for all Twins fans!
Escobar is my first choice
I would give up a lot for him. He is going to be a super star
I posted yesterday that I had faith this organization wouldn’t be stupid and just trade Delmon away. Thankfully it is sounding more and more like they won’t. If they trade him away it has to be for a mega package back. Don’t David Ortiz us again.
Also, Blake is a nice signing, but 3 years is really pushing it for a guy of his age. The reason he is demanding 3 years is because he knows getting a 1 year deal after 2 isn’t going to be easy. Why else would he and his agent be pushing so hard????
I agree with thrylos that we should focus on 3rd base right now. Getting a decent SS (even Tolbert) is easy enough. Unless we can get a big time SS, then focusing on 3rd seems smart. Atkins and Beltre, someone has to crack with a decent deal.
Gregor -
I like Perkins’ attitude on the mound. He is not afraid to bust one in on a batter, and isn’t concerned about strikeouts. I think he and Blackburn have the best mentalities on the mound for aggressiveness. Baker is a cool customer, and Liriano is a stud talent with a questionable work ethic and attitude. Slowey is the one guy on the rotation that throws me. Good work ethic, great control… can be a poor man’s Maddux or could end up being a poor man’s Radke, and giving up 30-40 homers, and more hits than innings pitched… Slowey would be the guy I would trade.
I can agree with the Twins for not giving in on the third year for Blake. He would be 39 or older at that point and you’d want your up and coming prospect (Valencia or someone else) to take over. They need a steady, sure-handed ss that will anchor the defense. The saying is your defense has to be strong in the middle to win championships. They’ve got Mauer, Casilla, and Gomez/Span in the middle, now they need to land a defensive ss to solidify the infield. SS is not a position you want a lackluster defensive player at. As far as a middle reliever, why not go after a FA starter and move one of the current guys to the pen? Get someone like Garland, Penny, Wolf (or better)and move Blackburn or Perkins to the pen. A good FA starter would be a nice option. The young guys have only pitched one season in the majors, you can’t say for sure they will be better or the same as last season. A proven starter might be a better option. Maybe even a trade for Peavey…I’m sure they would be intersted in DY. The Twins don’t have Johan’s or Tori’s big salary to worry about anymore. Liriano and Peavey as your 1-2 guys would be great. But I know we’re talking about the Twins, so no sense in dreaming.
They won’t look too hard at Crede because of his agent, and the Twins won’t deal with Boras. Crede’s back history would need him to get a low base contract with a lot of incentives.
People need to stop talking about Garrett Atkins. He had an OPS of .904 at home and .661 away. He will only ever be any good for the Rockies in the hitters paradise that is Coors (thin air). That would make him INFERIOR to the CRAIG MONROE experiment (OPS .679).
They should stick on Buscher and Harris. Beltre is pretty good, but they’re gonna have to give up talent to get him for one year at his 13 million price tag (NOT GONNA HAPPEN).
Get a short stop. They can’t trade for one, because they would have to take a hit to the rotation and taking what was good in 2008 for granted, might be a serious mistake. It sucks to say that we can’t keep Punto, because we’re gonna need to pay him too much to make him out hustle someone else for a job. (he has to fight for it, in 2007 they gave him 3b and he stunk).
I trust the Twins to stay competitive. If they don’t win a World Series, at least they give us something to be excited about (3 game sweep of the Pale Hose, and losing in a dramatic 1 game play-in is better than getting swept out in the DS). They’re not gonna risk the franchise on a huge signing. Recall the hype/disappointment of the 1000 Run 2008 Detroit Tigers.
Be grateful for a good GM in Billy Smith. He could go McHale on us…
I worry about Slowly/Blackburn and Baker in the new stadium
Blake is not the answer.
Trade Thrylos98! NOW……
GOD I LOVE THIS TIME OF YEAR!!!
Three years guaranteed isn’t a deal on Blake. It’ll be interesting to see if he gets the contract he’s looking for. I’d love Hardy but getting Beltre is good, too.
Billy Smith is smart enough to know that Slowey & Span is WAY TOO MUCH for Atkins. I check Atkins’ splits out last night. He hits 70 points higher at home. He only hits .260-something away from Coors. There’s NO WAY that warrants 2 prime young players.
Why doesn’t anyone bring up the idea of making a trade with Houston for Ty Wiggington? He is 4 years younger than Blake and he is a right handed 3rd basemen with power. Offer Perkins and see what happens…
Give him the 3rd year. Offensively he is just as good as beltre and defensively he is ok but a hell of a lot better than what we have. If they don’t land Blake I don’t see them landing a whole lot of anything other than sitting on their hands and maybe signing a washed up reliever. Atkins would be a disaster taking a guy out of a park where the ball flies to the dome where it doesn’t would be awful. Escobar would have been a good fit. Good defense and a good bat and probably would have come a lot cheaper than Hardy. If the don’t pick up a big bat they had better keep Delmon.
Cuddy to 3rd. Casilla to SS. Tolbert to 2nd. Make a move or two to strengthen the bullpen. Watch out central division, here comes the Twins.
Our top three pitchers should be close to untouchable.
But if Colorado has the nerve to ask for Span and Slowey for Atkins I cringe to think at what the Brewers would ask for Hardy (much higher value IMO).
Thats why Blake not signing is disappointing we need all the trading chips available for a shortstop. A Crede risk is worth it, only if we are determined to get immediate help at SS.
“The way things are going, the Twins aren’t ruling out making a play for Pirates shortstop Jack Wilson.”
Ew.
Which ones are our top 3. I assume you mean Slowey, Liriano and Baker. But Blackburn had a pretty darn good year last year and I think Perkins led the team in wins.
Crede can’t hit lefties and played like 3/4 of a season between 2 seasons… What he would have brought 4 years ago with his glove has dried up… Not to mention Boras
Twin Fans
The Phillies also have good right handed RP. Our minor league and second line pitching matches up. I think the Twins could get a deal done without giving up DY.
I agree on holding the line on the third year for Blake, however, can beggars be so choosy. Too many people here are in love with Buscher.
As for the cheapskate comments, there is difference between being cheap and smart, ask teams like the Giants.
I really wish the Twins would sign Furcal. Yes, he was injured last year, but that’s the only reason we would be able to get him at a discout. Word has it he turned down a 4/40 offer from the A’s. The Twins should at least offer 4/44. This would plug the Twins largest hole and stabilize the top of the order. Why not give 11 million to a good player at one position that will probably work out as opposed to giving two not-so-great players $5 million that will be cut by mid season? Add Furcal, and suddenly are lineup seems pretty solid.
Span/Gomez CF
Furcal SS
Mauer C
Norneau 1B
Cuddyer RF
Kubel DH
Young LF
Buscher/Harris 3B
Casilla 2B
Atkins is another reasonable option, but wouldn’t you rather spend the money instead of give up on some of or young talent? Maximum I would offer the Rockies Harris, Humber and Mulvey.
Unless, he shows maturity at the plate during spring training, I would guess Gomez starts at Triple A next year. He drove Gardy nuts most of the time. The Twins did the same with T. Hunter and it worked quite well. Also, although he has a history of injuries, I think Joe Crede could be a nice addition to the club…history also shows he’s beat us up pretty good. Might be better off having him in a Twins uni…
BC Said….
“… Slowey would be the guy I would trade”
I 100% enthusiastically agree with you here.
Delmon isnt the player i would dangle (i know we had this conversation in a different post), but having that 4-5 man tandem of Young/Span/Gomez/Kubel/Cuddy is a HUGE advantage with out overflow of pitchers…please keep in mind that Span, a guy who had a pretty mediocre minor league career, exploded for a brief period…who is to say he doesnt lay an egg next year…i think that is what the twinks are most concerned about…
Liriano = sweet
Baker = got aggressive last year and turned a corner
Blackburn = solid 3/4 type of guy
Perkins = still growing but shows signs
Slowey “looks” good but he has had some brutal outings…him and Perkins seem to be in a similar place…but people seem to be in love with Slowey…
Twin Fans
How about
Swarzak
Bonser
Humber
Tolleson
for R Madsen and J Daniel
I’m surprised at the high level of skepticism here surrounding Casey Blake. After all, when he was with the Indians Blake was a constant Twins Killer. He has had more big hits against the Twins over the last several years than anyone else on Cleveland’s team. Out here in LA where I live, Casey Blake played a huge yet underrated part in the Dodgers late season surge. Believe it or not, it wasn’t all Manny Ramirez. Blake is a damn good player and I’d much rather sign him to a three year deal than trade Perkins, Slowey, or Blackburn for somebody like Garrett Atkins or Adrian Beltre. It is imperative that Bill Smith keep his starting rotation intact. The Twins are not going to suddenly become a power hitting team. They are going to be the same piranhas that they’ve been for years, so there’s no reason they should give away too much for somebody like Atkins who only has mediocre power anyway.
“I think they need to concentrate on finding a SS. If they get Beltre and he’s cheap (not a top 5 starter) nice, if not… keep Buscher and Harris platooning at 3rd. It’s similar to the Pags and Leuis platoon.”
Perkins can be moved for Beltre in a heartbeat, in my opinion. We’ve got plenty of #5 starters in our system to replace him. Humber, Swarzak, and Duensing could probably all step into that role and be a reasonable substitute.
As for comparing Buscher/Harris to Pags/Leius… I fail to see how that’s really a good thing. We may have won the World Series in ‘91, but the numbers put up by Pagliarulo and Leius are far from spectacular.
And LaVelle… Jack Wilson? Eeww… 
Sometimes the best deal is the one you didn’t make. Tough for us to judge, not knowing all the details.
I know it’s tough to give a player three years at his age, but it seems like even with the new park on the horizon, the Twins are not willing to gamble on paying players outside their organization. So much for the new stadium bringing in better players.
BC,
Given that Slowey’s numbers are currently better than Maddux’s when he was the same age, and better than Radke’s were at any point in his career, how does he figure to be a “poor man’s version” of either?
Perkins can have whatever mentality he wants. He doesn’t have the talent to match it and he’s proven to be a big injury risk already in his brief career.
Blackburn pitched a hell of a game 163, but let’s not forget that Game 163 wouldn’t have been necessary if he and Perkins hadn’t completely imploded in September.
I’m not blaming them, but I feel like a lot of Twins fans (myself included, to some extent) have idealized Blackburn a bit, remembering that game aside from the rest of his season and aside from his actual stats.
I like Perkins and Blackburn both; I think they did a tremendous job by stepping up in ways they weren’t necessarily expected to this season. However, neither is any better than a #4 starter at this level.
Slowey can afford to give up hits because he walks fewer batters than anyone in baseball. The argument that Slowey gives up more hits than innings pitched isn’t even relevant there anyway:
Slowey - 161 H/160.1 IP = 1.004 H/IP
Perkins - 183 H/151 IP = 1.211 H/IP
Blackburn - 224 H/193.1 IP = 1.158 H/IP
Liriano - 74 H/76 IP = 0.973 H/IP
Baker - 161 H/172.1 IP = 0.934 H/IP
Your defense of Blackburn and Perkins over Slowey doesn’t really make sense when you’re using hits/inning as an argument…
not a good move by this worthless front office…we need blake simply because he can fill a desperate hole in this lineup withhout costing us players…we need help elsewhere, like th bp and we may have to give up some talent to fill that spot, but to pass on blake simply because of a 3rd year is rediculous- whos to say that that 3rd year may be his best-nobody knows these things, but now we need him more than anything-worry about three years from now then…again the tight wallets in this org is going to cost the twins a chance to really do something special this year….disgusting as hell…please bill smith, pull your head from your ass……..
give up Perkins and Blackburn for Hardy if they have to. a real shortstop is a must and those 2 are easily replaced starters.
I read that the ChiSox are trying to acquire Jorge Cantu, the Marlins 3B. The Marlins are looking for catching. Cantu is not very good defensively but he has right-handed power and a good batting average. Could the Twins acquire him with one of their catching prospects along with a pitching prospect? Or would they even want him with his poor defense? If the Sox acquire him then maybe Josh Fields is available. Probably wouldn’t deal him to the Twins though.
I saw over on cnnsi.com that the Giants and Marlins were talking about a trade involving Jorge Cantu. He is a young, power-hitting 3B and is clearly on the table. Does anyone know why he is not being mentioned in any rumors regarding the Twins?
mj1 would u complain if the Twins did sing Blake i wouldn’t i know there would be fans complaing eather way about signing Joe Crede to a one year deal he parbly would like to beat the sox but the twins do need a good SS or 3rdbassman this year
Every time I hear Harris mentioned as I viable option at SS I am dumbfounded. I got so frustrated watching ground balls going back up the middle go for hits. He’s a good athlete. Seems to have plenty of fast twitch muscle, but no freaking range. I saw balls go for hits that I could of got. I’m 57 years old. A successful team needs a good fielding SS, or tremendous offense from the position. Harris can contribute neither.
PAY FURCAL. I belive he can put us over the top.
i dont see any rumors but that dosent maen that the twins wount try to trade for himi thought he was a 2b Twins and Marlins have mad trades in the past
Amusing to see everyones grandiose plans for the Twins. Hot stove discussions are for other teams - not the Twins.
History should teach all of you what to expect from the Twins in free-agency: Nothing of substance. They’ll wait until every top-level free-agent is signed by other clubs. Then they’ll give a couple low-ball offers to a few aging mid-to-low-level free-agents who are 4 years past their prime, and 2 or 3 of them will accept the offers.
Then fast-forward 6 months and 2 of the 3 will be waived by July.
That’s their MO, and there’s no reason to expect anything different in 08.
what would it take it to get Jorge Cantu he’s a good young 3b he’s only going to be 27
jack wilson??? you have to be kidding…i would rather keep punto for gods sake..damn slide casilla over to ss and play tolbert at 2nd…but dont ever let jack wilson near the twin cities unless its to play for st paul…please dont let what looked like a promising off season go to hell just like that..get back online with blake and get the deal done….
I plead…Please do NOT give up any of the PUP pitchers. Pitching is the key to winning MLB games, and our PUPS will be even better in 2009. Average pitching loses games, average infield players help win games. My guess is, Twins will NOT give up any of the PUP pitchers, so if there is an improvement to be made on the left side of the infield, IMO it will be thru FA. Our Twins team is not that bad, and I think we will win the Division in 2009, and then who knows what else can happen.
Bill Smith should sit on his hands and find someone else to make deals…the deal for Delmon sucks.
Take a shot! Pay Furcal.
Rob L i get what you are saying but in my mind i would put Casey Blake the mid to low leavel freeagent he is a good player but 35 and want 3 years at two years i would be made at the Twins but not at 3 years i’m just hopping that the Twins can some how get Cantu
Cantu is worse defensively that Buscher. He projects as the Marlins next first baseman after the KC trade.
Delmon dosent suck he was just 22 hit .290 and 10 homeruns give hime anther year with the twins look at where Hunter was when he was 22
do the mariners have a new GM i know that they wanted to much Adrian Beltre but maybe with a new GM ther price could come down
I am SHOCKED that the Twins pursuit of a FA that costs more than $3MM per year has failed. I love “we tried, but it just didn’t work” EVERY single year. Nothing better from a fan’s perspective.
Does anyone out there really believe they’ll ever sign a FA that costs real money, or that is in his prime? Anyone?
*no, I’m not suggesting Blake is in his prime…
Why do you all hate me? I’m not a real pirate.
I assume the reason why Cuddyer isn’t mentioned in the third base mix is because he doesn’t want to do it. Otherwise, it seems like a no brainer to me. We criticized him for his defense a couple years ago when he played the hot corner. However, compared to what we’ve witnessed at 3B the last couple years he was Mike frickin Schmidt. It would allow the Twins to get his bat in the lineup and have an outfield of Span, Gomez, and Young. I gotta think it would benefit him financially in the long run as well. A third baseman who can hit his weight is way more valuable than an outfielder.
Thrylos-
You say, “alright, 38, on Blake”, but even that misses the point. He had a good year for the Dodgers at age 34. His years with the Twins will be ages 35, 36, and 37. If he is good at age 34, why wouldn’t he stil be good at 35, 36, and 37? Ever heard of Mike Lowell?! Plus, we are talking about six million dollars, not Zito’s 127 million for the Giants. C’mon people, think big (no, just try not to think small ll the time).
[…] Velle goes over most of the rest of our options for the left side of the infield; the list of options is shrinking as teams make deals and shortstops find their new homes. The […]
Olney has an excerpt from his interview with Bill Smith, discussing Young and discussing Gardy’s comments:
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/print?id=3749662&type=blogEntry
the summary: Smith is not giving up on Young and Smith thinks that Gardy ‘was probably try to light a fire under Young’
That’s a relief.
Hey kitty kaat,,,you are an idiot, this Twins ownership and how it deal, and develops players is the same that has won TWO World Series in the last 20 years, how many have the brewers won? the Cubs? The Royals? Indians? Tigers? try writing down the number of teams that have won at least two in the last 20 years,,,,pretty small number, so your idiotic remark “Never contend for a world series” is just that…idiotic.
Kity Kaat,
Lowell is half a year younger than Blake. Blake will be 36 next August. Even Mike Schmidt broke down when he hit 37.
[…] Twins Insider – […]
Never say never. The Blake thing could change with a single phone call.
From what I’ve read, the Dodgers weren’t offering three years either. It was two teams essentially offering the same 2+1 deal and Blake’s agent waiting for one of them to crack and offer 3.
With the Twins dropping out to pursue other options, Blake’s chances at getting 3 years is reduced to zero. At this point, it becomes which team would Blake rather play for, Minnesota or Los Angeles? I would have to give the advantage to Minnesota if for no other reason than Blake only lives only about a 3 hour drive from the dome (there are other reasons as well).
I could easily see Blake and his agent having a change of heart and calling Smith back to accept. Maybe they ask for a small signing bonus, pay increase, or incentive(s) in addition to the 2+1 to save face with.
I also feel that if the Twins aren’t at least close to a deal for a SS or 3rd baseman at the end of the winter meetings, then maybe they cave and give Blake his 3 years.
Maybe I’m in denial, but I’m having a hard time picturing Blake playing anywhere but Minnesota next year.
Yunel = not going to be a twin.
Beltre = Possibility - Mariners should trade him, on a seattle team that’s going nowhere fast. Seattle needs to drop payroll. They also know with 100% certainty that they won’t be signing him to a LT deal. So something is better than nothing. We would only need AB for 1-2 years anyway as Valencia already has a big league bat.
Hardy = Possibility but this hinges on whether the brewers are 100% set on Alcides Escobar taking over. My opinion is Escobar has very little left to prove so making this move makes sense. If they were smart they would sell high on Hardy - why give him one more year to possibly decline? Escobar is their future not hardy.
I still think a mega deal with the Texas Rangers makes sense for both clubs. This has no grounds for chatter as this has not been discussed but wouldn’t an Elvus Adrus / Hank Blalock for A Solid Starter plus 2-3 prospects make for a good trade? Rangers need pitching, they have for the last 10 years. Andrus is a SS with upside and Blalock is the BAT they’ve always coveted. I think that Hank’s price is the lowest its ever been due to his injury and Texas can live without him with the emergence of Bradley and Hamilton in thier lineup. I would love to see this trade happen.
Atkins = I like him, I think he would hit well in the dome. The rockies should sell high on him but if he’s moved, how long will they hold on to HELTON? Rebuilding is Rebuilding and helton is not a young buck anymore. Will they come down on thier price? Tough to say.
All told here is how I realistically see the Twins in 2009:
Span
Casilla
Mauer
Morneau
Beltre
Cuddyer
Young
Tolbert
Gomez
Baker
Liriano
Slowey
Blackburn
Swarzak / Humber / Mulvey
I think this gives this twins some great balance with 4 speedster table setters at the top and bottom of the lineup with some serious thunder in the middle. Kubel Harris and Buscher provide excellent depth in the dugout. The only question is, it wise to have cuddyer and young split time in the outfield, a nice dilemma to have to say the least.
This is why signing Blake is a bad deal: Here is the list of players who played in the All star game as 3B from 1986-1994 (I could have gone longer but this is probably enough). Looking at their OPS+ numbers, I listed the age of their peak (their highest OPS+) and their OPS_ at ages 36 and 37 as percentage of their peak:
Boggs: peak 29; age 36: 82% of peak; 37: 68% (*)
Schmidt: peak 31; age 36: 76% ; 37: 71%
Bobby Bonilla: Peak 31; age 36: 30%; 37: 60%
Howard Johnson: Peak 28; age 36: out of baseball
Chris Sabo: Peak: 29; age 36 out of baseball
Terry Pendleton: Peak: 30; age 36: 55%; 37: 47%
Gary Sheffield: Peak: 27; age 36: 72%; 37: 57% (*)
Edgar Martinez: Peak: 32; age 36: 82%, 37: 85% (*)
Dave Hollins: Peak: 26; age 36: out of baseball
Matt Williams: Peak: 29; age 36: 57%, 37: 48%
Blake: Peak: 30
(*= other positions at later ages)
Given that Blake is not at the level of these players and assuming a best case scenario of 80% peak OPS+ at age 36 and 60% peak at age 37, his OPS would be at the neighborhood of .672 at age 36. Methinks that Harris could do better at that point.
Thrylos: If Blake has two good years the next two years, be sure to write to him and remind him that he is 37 and his career is now over. Isn’t that being just a tad literal?!
Get punto signed Twins taking way too long to get him signed or infield defense will be lost.
Isn’t that being just a tad literal?!
nope. It is just listing the probabilities. (and a lot of baseball is about probabilities e.g. getting a LOOGY to face a left hand batter late in the game with the game on line; and not hitting and running with a guy with 150K on the plate)
How about the probablity of the Twins actually being a serious contender with Brian Buscher at 3rd base?
Why are the Twins not looking at Orlando Hudson for 2B and moving Casilla to SS?
We need a shortstop long before a thirdbaseman. Harris just doesn’t cut it at shortstop. I could live with Buscher and Harris platoon at 3rd. But not with Harris Tolbert at short. I really could live without Harris at all.
I think the main reason that the Twins will not deal DY is that the corner outfielder marked it saturated with free agent talent. The market is shrinking and it looks like guys like Dunn, Burrell, Ibanez and Abreu can be had for cheaper than originally thought. So if a team is looking to fill a hole it makes much more sense to look for an affordable FA than to give up what we are looking for (a top level, MLB ready left side infielder) for a guy that has upside, but also questions. I would much rather take a chance on his upside at this point than sell low in a market that will most likely not produce what we are looking for.
My guess is that if we deal, we will deal pitching (Perkins, Humber, Bonser) or high minor prospects (Martin, Tolleson, Lis).
I might agree with sploorp- just because we refuse to give Blake 3 years, does not mean someone will give him three. If he goes back to the Dodgers and Indians and hears the same thing- he may be back asking for that 3rd year option the Twins offered. If the FA market is shrinking, he shouldn’t be immune to it.
2 years/$12 mil plus a team option, sounds like a nice deal for the Twins. I am not sure Blake will get much more than that…
Beej—
I love the way you think—that would be my 2009 Twins line-up exactly. Get
Beltre, and if he works out, pay the man
what he’s worth. It doesn’t have to be one and done with Beltre. Tolbert will
hustle himself into a tremendous full-time shortstop.
I would also sign Mike Sweeney cheaply
(we know he can put the ball in the seats at the Dome) to be the RH DH and
give Morneau a day off once in awhile.
Win Twins!
Doesn’t look now like Blake will end up with a three-year contract from anyone. With only two serious bidders, the Twins are smart to publically step away at this time. Now here’s no reason for LA to give him three years. Blake and his agent will have to come back and negotiate the best two-year deal. Unless a third team steps in.
What are they saving their money for???
Steve in Fridley…
to compare any pitcher in baseball to Greg Maddux on any level is a compliment… I don’t think that anyone should be offended that I make a comment saying that Slowey could be a poor man’s Maddux.
It simply means that when slowey is on he can be brilliant, but he has to be 100% on to do it… where Maddux at 75% was still a top 10 pitcher in baseball.
As for the Radke comment… No walks, few k’s, lots of base runners, lots of homers… And like both possibly good for a 200 plus innings every year.
I just don’t think that Slowey will ever be as good as he’s been hyped for, doesn’t mean I don’t like him at all. I just look at him as the one I’d trade first. (because I don’t count Bonser or Humber since they are out of options).
Best case for the Twins, the A’s spend their money on Dunn or someone like him. The Dodgers resign Manny.
The market for Furcal will have dried up completely with the As, Giants and Dodgers out of the picture.
The best offer that Furcal might find is 3 and 36… something the Twins could easily do. Platoon at 3b- find some RHP either in the FA market or through a trade- and we have ourselves a pretty good team.
It would be nice to see the Twins fix the 3rd base and SS positions, and not do the same old thing, but they keep winning doing the same old thing so as much as I like to pick on Gardy the man deserves a lot of credit for putting up with the GM’s bad trades, and the ownership’s unwillingness to spend big bucks on big names (and sometimes big games). So I am torn. I want to rip them more than I do because I don’t want to just be a cute team that wins 85-90 games a year and gets kicked in the first round of the playoffs. I want to be the team to beat, and this year they have that opportunity.
I just don’t like how everyone is thinking Blake is worthless. He is not. He’s an adequate fielder, and he is a consistant .275 hitter with 20 homers and 75RBI… compare that to what we have, and what we’ve got coming up the pipes, and Blake looks pretty good to me. Especiallly when the Rockies want the world for Atkins.
Ryan,
I would love to see Furcal here as well, but I don’t think the Twins will spend 12 million on anyone.
If they were… then they need to talk to the Padres about getting Peavy! We don’t need a starting pitcher, but every team needs one of the 5 best starters in the game year in and year out.
I figure they will just piss the offseason away, and we will resign Punto to a 3 year 12 million dollar deal, and the team will always be the team that could have, would have, and was too cheap to ever be a real contender.
BC,
I think Thrylos showed a comparison between Maddox & Slowey in their 24 year old campaign.
While I would agree that it is way too early to compare Slowey to Maddox, because Maddox has done it, Slowey has yet to, yet When Maddox was 24, AND he pitched in the NL where he got the pitchers spot 3 times per game, Here are the highest ER’s allowed in his 6 worst games (poor wording) 7, 6, 6, 5, 5, 5. Slowey’s similar worst 6 games…8, 6, 5, 5, 5, 4. Not much difference as I see it.
Seems even Maddox at age 24 in an easier league, DID NOT pitch perfectly each game, AND got lit up from time to time.
Regards,
If Blake is out of the mix,i would go for Beltre and Gresalanek(sp)moving Cassila to short.
i will lose all faith in this team if they trade young. the guy hit 290 last year - and he’s young - let him play every day and put cuddyer on the bench.
phew! that was close! thank the baseball gods we didnt get blake.
just once i would like to see this organization have some balls and sign someone that has some life left in them-after all we are not asking them to spend like the yankees…just spend some and show some real effort….these players deserve better than they have been getting and also, we the fans deserve the same….take that bill s.
BC,
One other thing. At 24, Maddox was in his 4th FULL ML season. Slowey, in his 2nd. One would have thought Maddox would have learned something by then 
Regards,
here is what we need to do we need to go after huston street and garrett atkins and give up delmon young glen perkins and a couple of minor leaguers
I think ALL this doom and gloom is warranted.
The season starts on Tuesday and the FO has spent ALL off season sitting on their hands, while EVERYONE else did something to improve themselves.
Regards,
leon…those kind of trades gain absolutely nothing….we need not give up delmon young or perkins period…..i dont mind street, but we need to trade people like kubel or prospects–we dont need to start dismantling this team of its starters–thats why signing blake was so important, because he doesnt cost us players….we need to add to last years team, not take away from it..
imo-Liriano,Slowey,Baker and Nathan should be the untouchable pitchers.The M&M’s,Cassila,GO-GO and Young in the field.That would change only if someone was willing to overpay!
The one with with Maddox was his consistency - every year he got better until he past his prime, and even then he was still a top 5 pitcher. He was always so masterful with his pitches, even when he got hit, it was mainly the other team just hitting the tar out of good pitches (you have to give the hitters credit once in awhile).
Slowey is really coming along - he’s got awesome control; Bert even showed how on nearly every pitch Mauer would sit in a spot, and the ball would be THERE (the glove didn’t even move).
Steve - I love your posts, but I must respectfully disagree about Blackburn and here is why.
Calling his performance in September an ‘implosion’ while comparing him to Perkins (who DID implode - all his starts except his last one were atrocious) for lack of a better term, pisses me off. He had 6 starts including his masterful performance against the Sux (only one mistake) and of those he had 4 quality starts; he only had 2 bad starts, one against the red hot and fairly unstoppable Blue Jays and an implosion (we can use it in this case) against a decent hitting Baltimore team.
Perkins on the other hand (I still like him) had no starts below 4 runs except the last one (against KC, whoopdedo), and the majority had at least 5 given up (in limited innings).
Blackburn isn’t going to win any awards any time soon, but he is a gamer and deserves more respect than what he’s given. If anything, he’s the best #4 starter I’ve seen in this league (name one better - I’m sure you guys would need to search awhile forone) and would be a 3 (and even a 2 on some really bad rotations) on many teams.
Here’s hoping we keep him.
Twins better do something smart very soon. The team will try the 3B minor leaguer, whose name I forgot but is a very good prospect. I am not comfortable with 2B (backup) or SS (starter or backup) yet. My “former” man, DY is not and needs to be shopped around along with Cuddy. Out.
So it is safe to say that if the Twins garanteed the 3rd year to Casey Blake, he would be a member of this team? If this is the case, I see this as a mistake. Sign him! You guys must understand the risk/benefit vs. cost. For example, to give up another player, say Perkins, for Adkins, just creates another hole. Also, you are not garanteed Adkins will be an improvement over what currently pocess. Adkins does not know the league, the pitchers, or the parks. But with Blake you pretty much know what your going to get. He’s versitial, and he fits into the budget, and most of all, he knows the league, the pitchers, and the parks. He just make alot of sense.
i think the twins are really just missing the boat…as i saw it, i would bet on blake having a nice little 2-3 year run here, playing very steady 3rd base night after night and hitting those occasional bombs…i believe he has that sorta hometown guy thing going, he had played here once before and i think he would have become a true fan favorite thru out the dome……until he signs elsewhere, its not too late—losing him over a possible 3rd year is putting a very, very bad taste in my mouth…..
I think that the Twins are sort of screwed when it comes to the possibility of a trade for a good infielder. They don’t have the starting pitching depth to be able to trade away Slowey, Blackburn or Perkins since they traded Garza last winter. I just don’t see them making any deals this winter involving their starters. So, as much as I don’t like a 3 year deal to sign Blake, maybe that’s the Twins only option to upgrade the infield.
Adkins is a mirage. Check out his splits. He’s Ted Williams at Coors and Mike Lamb everywhere else. I wouldn’t trade Buscher for Adkins. Colorado can keep that stiff.
Bill Smith is the stiff. He made 5 horrible acquisitions last year and blew both trade deals. Keeping Santana would have let us win the division plus when we lost him we would have been awarded 2 first round draft picks in the MLB draft. Instead we got Go-Go (hitting his weight in winter ball) and 2 career minor league pitchers.
Smith is the stumbling block. My only hope is that he makes NO deals because he is incompetent. Bring Tolleson up in September and groom him as the next 2b and the eventual move of Casilla to ss. Tolleson is tearing up winter ball hitting .380 and showing power. Bring Hughes up and let him play 3rd. Don’t re-sign Punto and get a pick. Let Young have one more year to show his potential. If he does, great, trade Cuddyer if he has an off year. If not, trade him.
We are not getting Hardy, or Atkins, or Furcal, or Escobar, or Beltre or Barry Bonds for that matter. Quit dreaming, Wild Bill Smith is a dud!
Bob,
‘Bring Hughes up and let him play 3rd. Don’t re-sign Punto and get a pick.’
Hughes is a brutal infielder and Punto is not a Type A or Type B free agent, so his loss will not bring the Twins any draft picks.
Blake is too old. I hope that he doesn’t come here.We will be fine with Buscher at third Harris at SS amd Tolbert as the utility guy.
There is a glaring hole in the BP though. Maybe the twins should give Kerry Wood a look.
Sitting with the five OF isn’t necessarily foolish because I can’t ever remember a season where both Cuddy and Kubel were both healthy all year.
I’d rather see the return of Christian Guzman than the return of the first base slider!
Considering Guzman has revitalized himself I see that as a no brainer.
Buscher cannot play 3B (or any other position) and is terrible hitter (or lack there of) with runners on base (ala Punto). Harris should have been SS from the get-go: him getting stuck at 2B on a new team hurt him in the beginning, and it cost him. He gets moved to short, does very well (and the team wins, which should be the most important thing), then gets benched for ’sparky’ and the rest is history.
I am excited about Tolbert and Tolleson; should be good young players. We need some pop though, and not sure if Tolleson can hit Major League hitting with pop (might hit for some average, but we already have that). Don’t forget about Macri - had a nice little visit up in the bigs until he got hurt. I’d be excited to see what happens to him as well.
Blake would be a nice fit if they can fanagle the right deal. He would provide the 2-3 year stopgap the younger guys need to develop. Everyone should stop stalking about Valencia and Hughes (for now) - Valencia couldn’t hit the broad side of the barn and Hughes makes Buscher look like a gold glove.
I really don’t want to trade unless we get a good player in return. I will camp out on Kirby Puckett place if I ever hear Atkins name in trade discussions again - the guy is not that great and the Rox GM is a moron.
Cmon BS - make one big splash, this team will do the rest.
Bob,
I humbly disagree with your take on Bill Smith.
IF he had of kept Garza and Santana, this team would have been looking up at the Tigers. Both would to have pitched shut-outs EVERY outing just to get to extra innings.
One is uncoachable, the other would have sulked all year just waiting to leave.
Regards,
Dragon -
I won’t compare Slowey to Maddux at the same age. When Slowey wins 15 games 1 time let alone what 17 straight seasons, when he is considered for 1 cy young, let alone winning 3 of them… when he is in the top 10 in Wins, Winning Percentage, or Cy Young contention then I will see some need to compare the two on a real level. So until then he is nothing more AND I MEAN NOTHING MORE than a poor man’s Greg Maddux (unless you are thinking of his brother Mike, lol).
I know that Slowey is a Twin so he’s got to be “the greatest pitcher ever times two” but slowey has to have some gold to be put on the gold standard of consistant winning pitchers amongst which Greg Maddux is the greatest of the modern age.
No Blakes is ok Harris can hit leftys and rightys and learn to play 3rd. Get a shortstop. Keep all your pitchers and outfielders. Get Nick back for ultimate utility and you’ll have good infield depth w/Buscher and Tolbert also. Teach someone to play 1st once in a while to rest Justin and find another reliever and your done. Then go play ball, just a little better than you did last year.
HAVE FUN !!! GO TWINS !!!
Dragon -
A sulking Johan Santana is still good for 17 wins.
Garza on the other hand I would have kept not expecting much out of 2008, but knowing that I was losing Santana for 2009… with the hopes of working his attitude out of him, but I could easily have been as wrong as right because we will never know.
Onto more important topics.
If we go with what we already have (and be cheap like the Pohlads are want to do year in and year out, and Bill Smith is unable to make a deal that he likes which might not be so bad!)
Do we move Tolbert to SS, and Casilla stays at 2nd, or do we put the faster Casilla back in his natural position and use Tolbert at 2nd base?
I don’t mind the platoon of Buscher and Harris at 3rd base. I would have rather had Blake for 3 years than either or both of them, but I can live with it. I am more worried with SS/2B
BC,
On the Maddux/Slowey thing, time will tell.
The interesting thing, which I don’t think has happened with the Twins, maybe forever. The age difference between M & M and the next generation of YOUNG talented players to be a solid core for 3-5 years is much closer.
If you notice the majority of complaints on these blogs are about the failure of a 22 year old and a recently 23 year old. A young pitching staff where Baker is the Grandpa at what, 26/27 years old?
Nathan & Redmond are the oldsters, and without looking it up is anyone else other than Cuddyer 30 or older?
While many/most disagree with me, I think Bill Smith did a good job, based on the situation when he took over, the results in total were very good.
IF there is a deal to be had, I think he will make it. BUT, it takes 2 to make a deal. I have no doubt we could have had Beltre last year for Mauer & Morneau, yet that would probably have defeated the purpose of getting him.
Regards,
Well Im not at all surprised with the Casey Blake situation. Typical behavior for BS! So now its plan B and lets hope the Twins have better luck. However, to get good talent the Twins may have to give good talent also. In this case some of our starters maybe needed to make this deal happen.Well if a starter has to go then let it be Glen Perkins or Nick Blackburn. I can live with the lost of one of these two players.
I really don’t want to see Buscher at 3rd this season. Not enough offense to justify his defense. If the Twins do not upgrade, try Harris there fulltime or platoon/daysoff/slump with Tolbert and have Tolleson play SS.
I hope the Twins find a new 3rd baseman over SS
This is great news! Not only did I think that Casey Blake would be another failed signing, but I was also very worried about Delmon Young leaving the team. Young is a future star, and he needs to be out there in left field. I say trade Cuddyer and keep Young.
Now that the SF Giants have signed Edgar Renteria, I’m reading that Emmanuel Burriss might be available. The Twins have had some success in the past trading with the Giants. Any thoughts?
Re Burriss:
His stats last year at NL:.283/.357/.329
His stats last year at AAA:.258/.281/.306
His stats in 2007 at high A: .165/.237/.180
Sorry, I’d rather have Tolleson or Machado
How come no one thinks we should pursue Crede?
But Burriss is a major league ready SS that shouldn’t take too much to get
If Burriss were MLB-ready, why would the Giants sing Rentaria instead of trying to plug any of their (many) other holes with that $9+ M a year? In cases like that, I tend to believe the evaluation of the home team
Joe Crede is younger and a much better fielder than Blake!
As other posters have mentioned across the various weboards, I don’t understand why the Twins just wouldn’t go w/ Buscher next season-he WAS the MLB leader last year w/ RBI/AB ratio despite having 200 AB’s. Valencia’s right behind him,too, who’s probably the most legit 3B prospect they’ve had since Koskie.
One of the best arguments I’ve heard yet is that the Twins should just hold pat w/ the exception of signing a power arm or two for the pen because they’re just going to get screwed again if they start swapping players for players.The only exception for me would be Uggla if the Twins could ever get him for a bargain.
Joe Crede has Boras as his agent and his back is a cause of concern for everyone. He had only 2 seasons in the majors (out of 9) where his OPS was higher than league average (2002 and 2006). His career OPS against LHP is .743 (last year was a softball beer-league like .353 -.122/.207/.146 in 82 AB). Last year Crede had an OPS+ of 98, the much maligned Harris had an OPS+ of 97 and Buscher 100. Harris’ career OPS against LHP is .800.
Any more reasons?
Giants wanted a veteran to replace Omar Vizquel leaving. They plan on moving Burriss to 2nd. The Twins could either have Burriss play SS or have him takeover 2nd and move Casilla to SS. Burriss has great range, a strong arm, and awesome speed…..a natural leadoff hitter.
Send Bonser back along with some prospects.
I thought that Velez was the Giants starting 2B this season… That’s why they got rid of Durham.
Burriss needs some more minor league time. He does have high potential but was rushed like crazy in the Giants’ system.
If there were a Giants’ prospect I’d love the Twins to try to get, it would be Pablo Sandoval (who is blocked in 3 positions in the majors)
BC, D, both of you guys are right on. Blake is the answer at 3B; he’s the guy that fits with the deal that fits. I mean, he’s going to be 38 in the last year of his contract, not 68! And the guy’s in tremendous shape. Give him a third year, FINALLY plug the goddam hole at 3B (after five years of searching) and use the trade tools we have for a SS.
I’m telling you all right now: This team will end up signing Nick Punto to a three or four year deal to be their everyday SS and they will call it a “significant free agent signing.” It’s the same every year. This team talks big coming out of the offseason gate, then they fade into the same nonsense every year.
Thrylos… great comment on Burriss.
Hey Lala
Been a long time
Lala,
just out of curiosity, do you have any idea what are the best numbers a 38 year old third baseman put in the major leagues since 1950?
Dumb dumb dumb dumb dumb dumb dumb dumb dumb dumb dumb dumb dumb dumb dumb dumb dumb. Why can’t we T.R.A.D.E. him in the middle of his contract? Sign him now, trade him later. But they probably wouldn’t trade him because he’d be doing so well, or at least well enough.
Nobody is worth Atkins, least of all one of our current starters (pitchers or otherwise, i.e. Span). Until he proves himself, he’s just not worth it. He can’t hit out of a notoriously ‘easy’ park to hit in. Part of me wants to see the Twins get him, and watch as he does nothing here, and watch Blake continue to put up solid numbers with whoever gives him a measly third year. Houston Street should be OK, but nothing special, where ever he plays.
Beltre is great, but again, not worth any starters we have. Not because of lack of talent, but because of just getting him for one year. It’d be like trading Garza for Young, except knowing that we’d Only get Young for One Year- no matter how he performs. Can’t do it. Not for an organization who relies on cheap talent to compete.
The non-signing of Blake, at least for now, is inexscusable.
Here’s the truth: The reason Billy Boy won’t give Blake the third year is because everyone Billy Boy brought in last year was a complete bust. And, he doesn’t want to make the same mistakes this year, so he’s not even thinking logically. Blake is cheap in relation to third baseman (Beltre earns more than twice what Blake does), he’s durable, he’s productive, and he’s solid defensively.
Billy Boy is going to blow this one by trying not to blow it in the same manner he did last year. It’s almost as if the guy has no feel for the game.
Bring it Lala72, you are right on.
On Crede:
For him to sign here he would want 4 years 8 to 11 million guarenteed per plus incentives.
For the Twins to sign him he would need to take a 1 year contract with a vested option for a 2nd, and a team option for the third at 7 to 9 million.
Answer of this is that Scott Boras buys his maps with Minnesota cut out of them, and it’s going to be fun to see the 5 year 70 million dollar contract he will demand for Go-Go in 3 years. lol
Thrylos, I don’t know. But what are the best numbers a 47 year old defenseman has put up since 1950?
Like it or not, 38 is the new 28. This isn’t Mickey Mantle at 28. This is fitness freak, health food-consuming Casey Blake. The guy didn’t even blossom until his early-thirties!
Lala, where you been? I’ve been getting trounced over here the last few weeks for pointing out that Bill Smith hasn’t got what it takes to be a GM. He may make a great assistant, but to be the man… he’s failed so far, and it looks bad for the future.
Lala,
his peak was at 30 here is the link a few posts up:
here are the 2 best seasons by third baseman at age 38:
Cal Ripken: .340/.368/.584 18 HR, 57 RBI
Mike Schmidt: .249/.337/.405 12 HR, 62 RBI
Nobody could argue that Blake is Cal Ripken (and he was a shortstop that got a bit slow for the position). Even if Blake were Mike Schmidt (and yes Blake cannot hold Mike Schmidt’s jockstrap), would you pay $6+ M for a .249/.337/.405 12 HR, 62 RBI production?
And this is not a “best case scenario”; this is an outrageous case scenario…
Especially when Mauer’s contract and Kubel’s club control end at the second year of the proposed Blake contract…
BTW: Casey Blake will turn 38 at the END of the 2011 season. So, in essence, the third year is for a 37-year-old 3B.
And, to Thrylos, the best stats I can find for a 37-year-old 3B are for Mike Schmidt, who went .293-35-113 for Philly in 1987…back when 37 wasn’t yet the new 27 but still the old 37.
BC, I’ve been writing my third book, so I don’t have a ton of time. I’m sorry you’ve been getting your butt kicked. There are just some people here who, unlike you, fail to realize the Twins true constitution. They either don’t want us to pick up anyone, or they feel we should try to get guys like A-Rod.
And Billy Boy does seem lost. I was rooting for him last year, but I miss what Wayne K brought to this organization. He make Terry Ryan look good. I say let’s reach out to Baltimore and see if we can’t bring Wayne back as our GM.
Sorry Thrylos, Kubel is the least of my worries as far as a contract goes.
Cuddyers contract ends that year, if he is not gone sooner.
It is always a game of chess with Players with all teams except the NY teams, Boston, LA teams, etc.
Thrylos…
I want your opinion on this one…
Joe Mauer demands a 5 year 100 million contract when he is a free agent. He will have just gotten his 4th Silver Slugger, 4th Gold Glove, and lets throw in a 3rd batting title (but still never hit 100rbi!), and the Twins counter with a 3 year 55 million dollar contract.
Which way does the world end when Mauer signs with the Yankees or Red Sox?
With Minnesotan’s rioting in the street
With Minnesotan’s crying in the fetal position
or
With Minnesotan’s drinking the Twins PR Koolaid, bad mouthing the former Baby Jesus for only walking on water in the winter
or do you have a different feeling?
I think you know what I believe.
You guys are all missing the point. This year the Twins scored plenty of runs to win everything. We can muddle through again at SS & 3rd. Yes an upgrade at those spots would be NICE…. But it was the semi-meltdown of the bullpen that was our main flaw. Bill Smith needs to strengthen the bullpen as our 1st move! All of our hitters should improve, with the possible/probable exception of Cuddyer. We have more internal 3rd base options than SS. IMO, our #1 need is 8th inning setup ace & then SS. All the talk about 3rd is probably a smoke screen. The Twins historically play it very close to the vest & don’t really tell us what they are planning.
Lala,
I am just finishing the last two chapters of one, and editing another in hopes of getting them published. I’m jealous! I’m also shopping a couple of songs, but unless it has a simple rhyme scheme, or is a hip hop meets pop hybrid there just isn’t much of a market right now.
coco,
You have 5 starting pitchers that are young, and any one of them could slump or get hurt.
You have a team that hit at an unnaturally high level with runners in scoring position, and didn’t the year before (and even the year before that weren’t that great in the clutch).
You have a bullpen that imploded when Bill Smith didn’t bring in help like he should have!
3rd base is the least of my concerns… especially in a year where we HAD many options at SS, and SS is the most glaring problem with the team.
You need to get your Twins Koolaid going though because you need to believe that Buscher is working on his defense now, Delmon Young is learning what the strikezone is, Gomez is being forced to stand at the plate without a bat so he learns to take a pitch, and that every single reliever will be 100% healthy and have career years next year so there is no need for the Twins to spend any money. Geesh (kidding)
coco,
But the Twins couldn’t even score 1 run when it mattered the most.
It’s not easy hitting over .300 with RISP. Just ask the other 29 MLB teams that didn’t do that in 2008.
“Why can’t we T.R.A.D.E. him in the middle of his contract? Sign him now, trade him later.”
For the same reason we couldn’t trade Lamb last year and we can’t trade Cuddaver now.
If Blake has an big contract, and he is no longer capable of performing to the level of that contract, NOBODY will take him in trade and become stuck with a bad player with a bad contract.
Sane…
Cuddaver?
That’s awesome… I like that one a lot.
coco -
The twins playing it close to the vest and not telling us the plan?
is that kind of like being at the table and saying excuse me guys I’ll be right back?
The same thing is accomplished… we know a toilet somewhere is going to get flushed, and just pray they wash their hands.
I want your opinion on this one…
Joe Mauer demands a 5 year 100 million contract…[etc]
well, here it goes:
a. The Twins have 3 high ceiling catchers in the minors: Josmil Pinto, 19; Alexander Soto, 21; and Wilson Ramos, 20. Also, the more than decent (but injury prone) Jose Morales, 26 is in the AAA.
b. they are not willing to “rush” their prospects and they 1. re-signed the AARP-eligible Mike Redmond and his .654 OPS to be their back up catcher and 3rd spot hitter every other Sunday and added Sal’s kid who like his dad can barely flirt successfully with the Mendoza line to the 40-man roster.
Unless they change their frame of mind and try to get the catchers with the best potential up as soon as possible, they will be handcuffed and will get to meet Mauer’s expectations…
(what would I do? and this is economy-dependent: Next year, I would try to sign Mauer to a 6 year $12M a year extension, that would take care of him until 2017 when he’ll be 34 and take it from there..)
BC,
“Cuddaver?
That’s awesome… I like that one a lot.”
Thanks.
I’m proud of that one.
As far as I know, its an original.
great post tk(2)….once again bil smith has shot himself in the foot….now is not the time to be gunshy-its time to get out and lead, find ways to improve this club and put the best players you can on the field…in this situation the best for out situation was blake and again we backed away…we let him get away and we will regret it terribly-we have a little bit of trade material but not alot, so whomever we can add without having to give up anyone is a big plus…what do others out there think about furcal?? i cant get over excited and dont know if bill s is even interested anyway….one more thing- how can anyone be all excited and count on anything from valencia and hughes?? they havent passed even the smallest test as far as the bigs go yet-we cant count on them for anything at this point-we need to play proven people now and win this division like we should have last year…enuf ramblin….
Thrylos,
That is a much better answer! I could live with him at 6 years and 72 million. And that’s even if the economy gets worse.
I would also try to lock up 1-3 of those starting pitchers to a 3-4 year contracts too.
The only move that Smith made last year that I was dead wrong on was signing Joe Nathan. I was dead set against it, and I was 100% wrong. I might not be agreed with on the rest of it, but with that one the Twins did the right thing.
So maybe I should cut Smithy some slack?
sane,
Cuddaver, is original and fits to a tee, but watch it, or you’ll get the same response to the one I got when I used “Butcher” to refer to the Twins’ third baseman. At least Cuddaver was born in the off-season
Sane,
I know you didn’t like my Punterrible
but I did get some play out of some of the nicknames I came up with for Kevin McHale and Randy Wittman…
Per liking to write on LaVelle’s blog I won’t repeat those… lol.
The talk isn’t really over with Blake.
Twins will sign him next week….
The only move that Smith made last year that I was dead wrong on was signing Joe Nathan
so you liked the Rincon arbitration offer, keeping Monroe while he could have cut him for nothing at spring training while Ruiz run circles around him, taking Bassie up because he was out of options, and getting Tolbert up as the 3rd utility infielder instead of a power bat?
I am kidding you
These were about the only mistakes that Smith did during the off-season (other than signing had-beens for Rochester and stalling the progress of prospects) During the season is another story and Gardy had more input there, so much of the burden is on him…
The main risk in using nicknames is the possible overdose.
Topp Dogg…
Even if they do sign Blake which I think is a solid move, not great… it still doesn’t solve the hole at SS, or the need for an 8th inning guy in the pen.
I did actually agree with him on Monroe, Ruiz, and Tolbert.
Monroe was a proven bat, Ruiz was a proven STeriod boy, and I like Tolbert… I was praying he would make Punto a thing of the past, and I have friends in Tampa that have told me about how weak defensively Harris was so Tolbert was my pick to click with LaVelle last spring. I think I picked him and either Perkins or Guerrier… yeah I think it was Guerrier…
Shhh, I didn’t admit that I’m not perfect, lol.
Wittman is coaching his final game tonight.
The Clippers are killing the Wolves in a D-League game.
BC.B.. The average MLB hitters have their peak production between ages 28 & 32… let’s keep steroids out of the discussion. How many of the Twin’s starting hitters are older than 32? How many are in or approaching their “primes”? That is why IMO most of the hitters should improve in overall hitting & power. The odds of all 5 starters holding up health wise &/or improving is small. That is why their depth is important & WHY WE NEED TO STRENGTHEN the bullpen first. If we trade outfield depth, what are the odds that all of our starting OF will remain healthy on the hard artificial surface? Keep the 5 deep OF. It will be a strength for the team. I keep bringing this up, why can’t the Twins give Cuddyer another try at 3rd? He WAS a shortstop once. Why can’t he improve like Koskie did? I’ve heard he is deaf in his left ear, making it hard for him to play 3rd. Does anyone know if he is TOTALLY deaf or could a hearing aid help him? To me, Cuddyer is very similar to Blake in many ways & is already signed & is younger to boot…..Bullpen, SS & then 3rd should be our priorities.
Coco,
Cuddyer can solve his hearing problem at 3B if he plays with his back to home plate.
the need for an 8th inning guy in the pen
alright… about that “need”.
the only person I’ve seen identify this “need” is Gardy. I like numbers. This is no secret (duh) and here are the month to month numbers from last season:
month record starters ERA relievers ERA OPS
april 14-14 4.74 3.54 .666
may 15-13 4.43 3.94 .740
june 17-11 4.70 3.24 .770
july 15-10 4.28 5.21 .802
august 17-12 3.09 4.13 .771
sept 11-15 4.92 3.68 .739
(and I know that this is not going to format correctly)
MLB average: .749 OPS, 4.44 Starter ERA and 4.10 reliever ERA
so…
the bullpen has been the least of the Twins’ problem last year. Starting pitching and hitting were more problematic (even after the Liriano for Livan change were made; and I am using ERA here; if you use more rational numbers like WHIP or K/9 and K/BB the difference is much more obvious.)
Frankly, I do not see much of a whole in the pen… but what the hey, I do not have 4 WS rings like Gardy (on a second thought…)
Coco
Cuddyer has played 2nd base badly, SS badly, 3rd base poorly, RF, LF, and I think maybe even a game or two in CF in his career…
Gardy almost shot him when he was at 3rd base. At that point in time Gardy was blaming Cuddyer for everything except the Black Plague and the fall of the Roman Empire.
Cuddy in RF, and Gardy is right as rain…
No it’s not logic… it’s Gardy! And the man just wins so Gardy by definition defies logic. That’s why Cuddyer won’t play 3rd base, lol.
$72m/6 will not get Mauer. You’ll need to get him up to 13m-14m per I think, especially as other high payroll teams start hunting for new catchers about that time.
Now that it’s been brought up, what are we going to do about the bullpen? They need two arms I think, since I’m not confident relievers who get ridden as hard as Guurreriurer was ever come back all the way. I think a free agent vet like Joe Beimel, one that doesn’t cost draft picks, might be worth the money. Now that I look at the list he might be one of the only ones. After that I might also endorse an idea I read someplace around here that they sign another starter and move Perkins to the pen. He did OK there a couple years ago. Hey, I heard Peavy might be available…
Thrylos…
Those are the stats for the entire pitching staff for wins and losses.
Peavy ain’t coming here as Thrylos pointed out - he wants to play for a southern team and be closer to his family (and also stay in the NL most likely). As much as I would love Peavy, it’s not going to happen.
We have Swarzak, Mulvey, Korecky, Salama, Duensing, and a slew of other young pitchers waiting for a shot. We already have Breslow (people don’t mention how good a pickup he was), Mijares, Nathan, and a combo of Bonser, Crain, Guerrier, Humber and the others I mentioned. Korecky I believe will make a great 8th inning type guy - he had the balls for closer at AAA and did very well, and did a good job when he got the call when he was up. Mijares was lights out as well. I think I give him a spot, and have the others do the middle inning relief. We have plenty of pitching - all that ‘great’ pitching you are willing to trade for 2nd rate 3B, but not willing to say ‘hey, these guys might be good for the bullpen we so ‘desparately’ need help for’…
Hitting is #1. Period. Get a hitter and we’ll be fine.
The Twins should be trying to re-up Mauer now
Thrylos… I don’t have the patience to look it up, but how many times did Blackburn leave with a lead, only to have the bullpen lose it for him? The World Series winning teams often can play a “6 inning game” because of SHUTDOWN bullpens. Yes, if the Twins led the majors in scoring, they would win a lot of games in the late innings by out scoring the other team. But we all know that will never happen. It IS MUCH MORE LIKELY that we COULD have the best bullpen in the majors. Great pitching will beat great hitting. Strengthen the bullpen!
Coco
someone finally sees Blackburn 
*glares* - you dont want to trade him do you?
I’m with you on Peavy. My humor tends to be dry, but between that and its low quality people just misunderstand me a lot of the time.
I think they want one more grown up out in the pen. Go back to the month breakouts above and take another look at Sept. That pen was in tatters, the young starters were running on fumes and the only change since then is that we know Neschek isn’t coming back.
My Christmas wish this year is for a three year $30m Furcal to be parked in my driveway. Since we’re dreaming, my backup plan can be trading Blackburn Humber and other shiny new things to the Brewers for Hardy. The chances of those happening are slim, however, so I’ll settle for a Beimel, Wiggington and Tolbert ensemble singing some old Husker Du covers.
Other teams are worried when Nathan takes the mound. Mijares & maybe Crain could also get to that level. The rest of the bullpen is average at best. Korecky has a slider & not much else. Bonser has a heater & curve but little control of the strike zone. Humber has a curve sometimes, Guerrier has a curve & little else etc. etc. etc. We need another closer in waiting. Mijares has a chance. & Yes, I would love to see someone like JJ Hardy at SS for the Twins.
BC, those are the team W-l along with starter and bullpen ERA and team OPs broken down by month… (ignore the W-L part, it doesn’t matter for this discussion.) The point is that the bullpen (other than the month of July) has been fine and after Juanie and Bassie were gone and Guerrier was not used in high leverage situations it righted itself. You cannot say the same thing about the bats or the starters (look at September)…
coco: Blackburn by my count, did a quick look so I could be off.
1-0 loss, first game and last game
4 left with lead blown by BP
allowed 1 run but had a no decision twice (I think one was a Twins loss, the other not)
So that could have been 8 more wins for Blackburn. I honestly thought the BP blew about 6 for Blackburn but I guess not.
medschoolmatt…no I don’t want to trade Blackburn. My point is he would have possibly won 5 more games if we had a shutdown bullpen. Morneau in September was mentally drained/ injured/ physically exhausted/ choking/ take your choice(s). But all I can remember is the bullpen (including Nathan) continually breaking my heart. ONE MORE LEAD HELD ONTO & THERE WOULD NOT HAVE BEEN A PLAY IN GAME!
HHhhmm, been reading the threads and thinking a lot over the current turn of events.
I agree, Blake for 2 years was fine, not 3. But now if he’s out of the picture, I just don’t know if anyone else -we can get - is worth pursuing. Hardy and Escobar would be the answer but not if we have to give up great starting pitching. Just don’t give up Span either.
The only things that intrigue me right now are either Crede for 1 year, maybe 2 with incentives… or still trade Delmon - and a AAA pitcher to Colorado for Street and Atkins.
Other than that, I’m thinking we fell short again (Blake) and now the best deal might be doing nothing instead of taking a further step back like we did last year.
Feels like 3rd place in the division next year right now… but maybe that means we keep the core in tact for something better in ‘10, ‘11. We’ll see ~ we have some upcoming talent in the minors, i just don’t see the power enroute….
If the Twins had a top 3 bullpen in August & September, would there have been a play in game? I think not. If Neshek had stayed healthy, would there have been a play in game? I think not. If the Twins called up Mijares on August 1st instead, would their have been a play in game? I think not. THAT IS HOW CLOSE IT WAS gentlemen!
Other teams are worried when Nathan takes the mound. Mijares & maybe Crain could also get to that level. The rest of the bullpen is average at best.
that’s a perception. Here are the numbers:
MLB reliever average WHIP 1.39
MLB reliever average K/9 7.80
MLB reliever average K/BB 1.94
if you create a composite measure like (K/9 * K/BB)/WHIP to measure pitching efficiency, the MLB reliever average for 2008 would be 10.89.
Here are the Twins’ relievers numbers:
Joe Nathan, 44.89
Jose Mijares 43.00* (extrapolated because he did not walk anyone)
Pat Neshek: 31.64
Dennys Reyes: 16.59
Craig Breslow: 13.59
Boof Bonser: 13.44
Jesse Crain: 10.90
—–average—-
Matt Guerrier: 7.00
(Juan Rincon: 6.27)
(Brian Bass: 4.58)
Bobby Korecky: 1.50
So, Breslow and Boof are way above average. (with Nathan, Mijares and Crain that gives 5 Twins above average…)
THAT IS HOW CLOSE IT WAS gentlemen!
I agree and let me raise you one (hey the winter meetings are in Vegas this year):
Juan Rincon blew 5 leads last year and Gardy kept using him in similar situations (a couple back to back) until Smith got rid of him.
All it would have gotten would have been Gardy not using Rincon with an one run lead in a close game for the fifth time (after he blew the four before) for the Twins to make it to the post season last year
It is that simple
Glad that Gardy got all those votes for manager of the year
Glad that Gardy got that 2-year extension
[/sarcasm]
it is that simple.
If we need to trade any of our Of, trade the number 9 hitter & move Span to CF.
thrylos, you posted some stats once on pitcher velocity. How did Nathan end up in terms of average fastball speed in ‘08? He seemed, for the first time in is career, to slow down in terms of velocity this past year. In previous seasons he seemed to hit 95-97 at the top end, even 98 occasionally. Last year he seemed to peak at 93, 94.
Wonder if its age, overuse, injury, etc or different speed guns?
coco - yeah, I’m not in the camp that sees Gomez as a 5 tool player. He may still turn out okay…but some guys look like physical specimens but just can’t get the hand-eye coordination down. If he continues to hit .250 and low OBP, then his speed doesn’t do him much good.
It’d have to be the right trade, but for a good SS I’d really think about trading Gomez…especially now with Blake out of the picture. Would be nice if the Brewers decided they needed him as their CF and we could get Hardy. Not holding my breath - they’d probably want us to throw in Baker or Slowey too. Ouch…
Thrylos…. nice analysis. But wouldn’t it be nice if the Twins had 5 guys at 30+ in your system? Mijares has too small of a sample size to put too much into. Neshek is out. Reyes is gone. Breslow & Bonser are about 25% above average in your system. Crain is average. Let’s hope Mijares can get a “30″ or better, but another one or two “30+” would really make the bullpen a strength. We DID NOT HAVE ONE OF THE WORST bullpens. I’d like to see us have the BEST. You know we will NEVER lead the Majors in scoring. The Dome just does not help enough as some of the other teams’ ballparks such as Rockies or Phillies. But I did like your analysis, it was a good overview.
E7, We could trade GoGo “high”, while DY or Cuddy would be “low”. But it won’t happen because he is the center piece of the Santana trade. The management egos involved won’t be able to do it.
unbelievable,
Nathan’s average fastball this season was 93.5 mph (last season was 94.8 mph). No need to read that much to it (in 2007 slightly more batters made contact with his fastball than in 2008 and in 2008 Nathan started working on a cutter and a slurve; he’ll be fine)
. But wouldn’t it be nice if the Twins had 5 guys at 30+ in your system?
Yeah… and the rest 29 team wish that, too… but:
a. if you look at the starters, the Twins had only 3 before average (Slowey - he was 9th in the majors - Baker and Liriano) if you add Boof, that would make 4.
b. they got to work on the OPS and esp the SLG factor of the OPS.
Bullpen is so much a lesser need….
thrylos, are saying that Nathan developing other pitches reduced the velocity on his fastball or that it somehow brought his overall average down?
*pfft* Blake ain’t worth it. Some team is going to over pay and regret it when that third year rolls around.
Too bad Rockies are apparently reading the Mariners book on trade negotiations.
All it would have gotten would have been Gardy not using Rincon with an one run lead in a close game for the fifth time (after he blew the four before) for the Twins to make it to the post season last year
It’s fun to find that one game the manager lost…failing to notice several games that the players lost.
You know, like when Morneau decided he wanted to suck the last two weeks of the season.
What was Gardy thinking putting that loser in the lineup?
re saying that Nathan developing other pitches reduced the velocity on his fastball or that it somehow brought his overall average down?
Nope. He got older so his fastball is about to go down. It’s a good thing that he is developing a cutter… no cause and effect
T,
I know that you are a stern Gardy apologist, but let me put the same scenario in a different context:
You work in a factory supervising assembly. You got a guy who is messing any time you put him on the line. And you like the guy and you keep putting him on the job even though he sucks. The product does not cut it. Your manager fires him. You got a couple more people to replace him and still at the end your competitors are better. Your manager rewards you with a raise.
How would you feel?
There’s a surprise…T coming to the defense of the front office.
I’m not huge fan of signing Blake (I want to see them sign Furcal and trade for a third baseman) but the idea that somehow a 3 yr, $18M dollar contract could ever somehow become an albatross to the Twins is an example of the effective brainwashing the Twins have pulled off.
The Twins never reinvested the money they saved on Hunter/Santana last season and were somewhere around $15M under budget. They project to be $15-20M under budget again this year. They have a new stadium opening in 2010.
They can afford Blake, at three years, if they want. They’re simply CHOOSING not to to do so, they aren’t PREVENTED from doing so by finances.
Coco,
Last year, we were good enough to win the division. It’s true. But honestly. Who here thought that the Twins had a shot in the post season? I didn’t. Anything could’ve happened, but to expect success would be dreaming. We need upgrades to put ourselves in WS contension rumor mills. Our team, as is, is good, but not THAT good.
USAFChief,
I get what you are saying (and I agree, in principle) but that’s Casey Blake and not Manny Ramirez we’re chatting about… I am not sold on the baseball merits of signing Casey Blake to a more than an one year contract (hey Smith went for 2 plus an option), the financial aspects are much worse
I’m not sold on Blake, either, thrylos, but…
-there’s little doubt in my mind he’d be a better third baseman in 2009 than anything the Twins can currently run out there.
-there’s a decent chance Blake will be better in 2010 than anything else the Twins run out there.
-even by 2011, I doubt Blake will be useless.
I just get a bit upset by the focus on money. If Smith has a better plan, great. If the plan is to keep that money in Pohlad’s pocket, then I’d rather they give it to Blake. The Twins CAN afford it.
sane says:
“Why can’t we T.R.A.D.E. him in the middle of his contract? Sign him now, trade him later.”
“For the same reason we couldn’t trade Lamb last year and we can’t trade Cuddaver now.
If Blake has an big contract, and he is no longer capable of performing to the level of that contract, NOBODY will take him in trade and become stuck with a bad player with a bad contract.”
Obviously, he’d have to be doing fairly well. (No one would trade for Lambchop numbers). Some on this board have mentioned that they like the signing for 2 years, but not 3. So, sign him for 3 years, front load the contract, then trade him after two (if you want to at that point). That way he’ll earn approx. 7M in ‘09, 6.5M in ‘10, and 4.5 in ‘11. If he does decently, Somone WILL bite. You might not get A-Rod back in return, but he’ll be a nice stop gap.
BC.Beneke:
“The only move that Smith made last year that I was dead wrong on was signing Joe Nathan. I was dead set against it, and I was 100% wrong.”
Really? I was (apparently) with you on this. I wanted to trade him at the deadline. (We could’ve gotten quite a bit for him in return). He is breaking down. Few closers, compared to how many there are, are dominant for a long time. I think Nathan might be hitting his peak, if he hasn’t already, and will continue to decline. He’ll still do well, and get the job done, but his blown saves total will probably increase every year from here on out.
I really like the idea of going after Beltre and using Casilla and Tolbert as our middle infielders. Beltre would be a beast in our lineup hitting behind Morneau or between Morneau and Mauer. The little we did get to see of Tolbert seems to show that he handles the bat pretty well. He would be an excellent #9 hitter, and if Casilla or Span take a step back, he could be a guy that moves runners over and hits singles from the 2 hole. If we lose Beltre after next year, we’re going to get a pick or two, and if you’ve paid attention to the Brewers the last few years, that seems to work pretty well.
[…] The Twins broke off talks with Casey Blake. La Velle E. Neal explores the possibilities on the left side for Minnesota. […]
What about Perkins in Bullpen to help with loss of Reyes.
We could sign a guy like randy Johnson to be 5th starter.
I heard he turned down 2 million plus 2 million in incentives.
Maybe offer Johnson 3-million a year plus 4.5 million in incentives. 1 million for 30 starts, 1 million for 200 strikeouts, 1 million for 15 wins, and another 500k for 20 wins.
I would consider 2-3 AAA guys for Hardy. I like Hardy at ss.
I think Buscher could be the next Koskie if given the chance everyday with occasional day off vs lefty starter.
We really do need to look at 4-5 yr deals for Baker and Blackburn. Offer each 20-million for 5 yrs. I would put Liriano in this also, except for injury and work ethics.
I think we should offer Kubel and Young both 20 million for 5 yrs also. They might take it. I think if money is divided out more 4-5 million a year for core 15 players plus 2-4 elite players making more like Nathan, Morneau, and Mauer.
I like getting Huston Street for 8th inning role.
What is everyone elses thoughts?
(Reposted from Joe C.’s Blog)
Morneau NEEDS someone to light a fire under him. He’s lead the team in HR’s every year since his first full one. I don’t know if anyone else has noticed this, but Hunter (first) seemed to keep him in the lead. Last year it was Kubel, but he under performed Hunter, and Morneau suffered. Let me explain:
In ‘05, Morneau finished with 22. Hunter had 14. In ‘06, Morneau had 34 HR’s. Hunter finished with 31. In ‘07, Morneau finished with 31, while Hunter had 28. This year, Morneau had 23, and Kubel had 20.
And even in ‘04, Morneau had 19 in 74 games, with Hunter finishing at 23. He tried to catch him.
In the Hunter years, Morneau was Always leading. But he would get 2,3,4,5 HR’s up on Hunter. And there he would sit. Until Hunter, eventually, got within 1 or 2 of him, and then he’d build up a 3-5 lead again. He has done this in EACH of his 3 full seasons. Last year, with Hunter gone, Kubel was the new (2nd)power guy. Kubel Almost caught Morneau at one point, but then he built a 4,5 HR lead again. Morneau, based on this, will only finish 5 HR’s or so above the 2nd team leader. If we get a guy that hits 25-35 HR’s, Morneau should hit 28-40. (And lead the team).
I should add the in ‘05, Hunter had a shortened season (98 games). So that could be why he Morneau had only 22 that year.
Has Anyone else Ever noticed this?
We as twins fans needs to take what we can get, this is just reality. We would be lucky to secure EITHER short or third, not both this offseason. I still think the front office is really trying to set everything up to complete team/serious run for 2010. We were spoiled with such tremendous success with the youngsters in 2008. The starters were phenomenal and the bullpen while shaky didn’t implode the same way the bullpens of many other teams did. My sense is we address one area of concern through a prospect oriented or 1 young starter trade, we keep our loaded outfield giving Delmon another year to improve his numbers. Quit swinging at the first pitch DY take a hint from Mauer! Giving span and young one more year will allow us to really determine who is our future in the outfield (besides Aaron Hicks) and then trade the excess outfield talent in the offseason of 2009 to setup a team for the ages in 2010. We solidify the bullpen with Mijares having a year of MLB experience, bring Neshek back to the fray and the TWINS are the talk of baseball and probably the trendy pick for going all the way. What are your thoughts????
If the Twins just stand pat, they go into the season as favorites in their division and certain to be in the playoffs.
With the pitching they have, combined with the everyday lineup, this team is formidable for sure.
The Twins can be in the Al championship game with this lineup. A deal for an upgrade at third could place them in the world series.
Punto and Tolbert are more than acceptable at short.
Hew - I can agree about the division, but they’d most likely have to face a top notch wild card team that scares me (could be Boston, Tampa Bay, whomever). Or we’d have to face the Angels or the Yankees - they scare me as well.
You really think, even if everyone in the lineup improves (which wont happen) we can surpass powerhouses like those teams? Yes we are good, but many guys on the team had career years, and Morneau put this team on his back all year and broke down because of it.
Young would need to (and I know he can) improve quite a bit (and get time in the lineup!), Kubel would need to do what he did and then some, Harris would need significant playing time at SS (if not for his bat - his defense is solid contrary to what many think) and Cuddy would need to have a bounce back year (I demand he play 3B if we don’t get anyone, he’s not worse than Butcher and Harris can play SS - his natural position). And don’t get me started on how Casilla and Span may (more than likely) or may not (lets hope so) come back to earth a bit.
And if Punto is on this team next year we WON’T be better or contend (we’ll contend DESPITE of him if anything). If he stayed on the bench and was in for defense only, heck yah we would. but when he’s in the everday lineup, we can’t succeed. His AB’s are atrocious and he’s non-existant when others are on base when he’s up.
hew…
I wouldn’t say that we are the favorites to win our division. The Tribe was awesome(and swept us twice) towards the end of the regular season. They’re young with good starting pitching. If Hafner ever bounces back they’ll be a real force. However, they have the same issue we have, they need BP help in a big way! They probalbly ev even need more help then we do. Who ever has the better BP will win the division. The Sux will not be as good next year. Detroit is still short on pitching.
Joe Crede anyone? I don’t care who his agent is you can still make an offer.
His agent is some hard-ass prick just say”here’s our offer take it or leave it”. Likely hood of this working is slim but at least you made an offer in an attempt to improve the team.
“The list of available shortstops has shrunk….In order to deal for a good player, the Twins might have to give up one of their five young starters”
The best available shortstop is Alexi Casilla.
The Twins do NOT have to deplete their rotation to trade for a marginal shortstop.
They can hold onto all their young pitchers and outfielders until their replacements are developed.
All they have to do is sign FA Mark Grudzielanek to play 2B and move Casilla to shortstop.
The Twins are ridiculous in their fear of moving players BACK TO THEIR ORIGINAL POSITIONS, because they are “comfortable” in the positions where the Twins are currently playing them. (Think Casilla at 2B instead of SS and Delmon in LF instead of RF)
When they give up one or two of their starters for a crappy shortstop, they will have only their lack of heuevos to blame.
If the twins plan to renew their pursuit of Garrett Aitkins these are the only players from the roster that I think should be available-Blackburn, Swarszak, Duensing, Humber, Bonser, Cuddyer, Gomez, anyone from last years bullpen except Mijares and Nathan.
Cuddy and Blackburn for Aitkins both teams win!!
sane, you are correct. Move Casilla “back” to SS. Put Tolbert @2nd. Then move Cuddy “back” to 3rd. Problems solved. Keep a late inning defensive replacement for 3rd & if it keeps Gardy happy, in late innings, pull DY from right & stick Cuddy out there when you bring in the defensive whiz at 3rd.
TK(2),
“Obviously, he’d have to be doing fairly well. (No one would trade for Lambchop numbers)”
The danger in a 3-yr-deal with Blake occurs if he is NOT doing well.
If he does well all three years, then it was a great signing.
If he turns into crap while we still owe him money, then he becomes UNTRADEABLE like Lamb and Rincon.
So you can’t trade out from under a bad contract like you suggest. The trading partner would have to be incredibly stupid to make a deal for a bad player with a bad contract.
The trade value of G Atkins is Atkins and Street.
get as far away from colorado as you can get..dont get sucked into anything they propose….they are totally out of touch—we can win without anyone from that club…..
Atkins and Street would be okay additions, but I’m just concerned who we would give up to get them. I’m not sure where Billy is right now - if he’s feeling pressure to do something. We could end up giving up 3-4 players to Colorado and I’m just afraid we’ll look back on it as the wrong deal again. I think he waited too long last year and got a little desperate.
Fine if he trades Delmon and a couple AAA guys…. but not Baker, Slowey, Span, etc…
Factoring talent and contract, one of the Twins 5 SP is of more value than Atkins.
Beltre free agent after one year limited value, not worth top 5 SP
Wait for Blake, the Dodgers are mess, and I do not think they will go 3 years.
I perdict a trade with the Braves or Phillies for a SS and DY opens the season in RF for the Twins.
Yes, who is the real Billy Smith anyway?
He grew up in the Twins organization as the bad cop “Mr. No” but then took over as GM last year seeming like he wanted to go to the other extreme and prove himself different than Terry Ryan. Almost a wheeling, dealing “Trader Jack” type.
Will be interesting to see as the other teams make moves, if he sits pat, or pressures himself into forcing something….anything ~
Dicky, do you mean Jason Donald?
BELTRE is best upgrade both defensively and offensively that we can make. $13 mill for 2 years is a bargain for what he could do for this lineup. If we had Beltre protecting Morneau, how many more sweet pitches will JM see in a year?? His power numbers will be directly effected with having AB hitting behind him. We have to remember the kind of season AB had prior to signing with the M’s. .334/48/121 — 2nd place for league MVP. YO! Wouldn’t it be nice to have him in his free agent walk year? He’ll have two reasons to play out of his mind. 1. He will relish playing for a contending yeam for this first time in 5 years. 2. The almighty dollar! GET THIS ONE DONE SMITH - Only AB is worth the price being placed on ALL the players being dangled.
E7
Yes, He is worth giving up something for. Good contract, 24 yrs old, has power. If defense failed you could switch positions with Casilla and still be a plus 2nd baseman.
One more thing, for those of you who are 100% sure we won’t ponying up the money for AB’s contract, think again. The twins played with a payroll in 2007 was $71 MIL - due to the departure of Hunter and Santana adding AB would place the 2009 payroll at $69-$73 MIL Range depending on is they bring back a few free agents Reyes & Punto or let them leave and bring up some young talent to replace them. VERY VERY REASONABLE! VERY VERY POSSIBLE!
Dicky,
Beltre is not 24. He’s about to turn 30. E7? Are you nuts?? Beltre has been one of the most solid defensive thirdbaseman in the entire league. Look at his numbers before you say stupid untrue things. Beltre has averaged only 12 errors a year for the past 6 years with an average fielding percentage of .972. Let’s just look at last season. Twins thirdbasemen made a combined 20 ERRORS. Beltre? 14. Doesn’t look like the defense suffers at all!!
Dicky,
One more thing? No one in their right mind would EVER, EVER put Beltre at second base. That’s the dumbest thing I’ve ever read. You don’t know anything about baseball do you??
NEVERMIND
If they could get Beltre for reasonable (perkins, some AAA guys, Buscher), put Harris at SS and we are instantly better (a LOT better).
If no trade happens, sign Grudz, Alexi to SS, then Harris FULL TIME at 3B (seeing Buscher there all the time gave me heartburn). I also want to see more of Tolbert - he was rock solid before he got injured.
Beltre would be a good addition. However I do believe the best move would to be having a healthy Tolbert in at 2nd. Casilla has the range to cover SS with ease. Tolbert has solid range as well but would look much better defensively at 2nd. Morneau is imporving by leaps and strides at 1b, and we all know Mauer’s prowess at C.
Around the horn.
C Mauer
1b Morneau
2b Tolbert
SS Casilla
3b Beltre
With the range that GoGo has in Cf and Span would have in Lf, those 5 young starters would have the confidence to grow even more. 1 simple move in Beltre is all that is needed to make this a reality. What do you guys/gals (equal opportunity commenter) think about this scenario?
Yeah I can’t wait to see Tolbert again - Casilla is versatile enough to go back to his natural position (hint hint). Beltre might not be as expensive - we’ll have to see what BS does. If we give them a bunch of young guys that have potential, i think they might bite as they are rebuilding and dropping payroll
Oh and secondly, what says the right package doesn’t pick up a solid RP in Putz either? Address all of the problems in one fell swooooooop. Easy as pie. Pull it off BS.
CHRIS, YOU LIKE BLAKE SO MUCH? You can keep him in Cali, anything that keeps him out of Cleveland.
Alright, I get it. I post and the whole thing dies. Hmmm. Just like when BS gets a solid idea finally then puts it off to the side. DEAD. 
Everyone is watching the Vikings play like crap against the Lions
Beej
I was referring to Jason Donald. Beltre is not 24 yrs old.
Dicky, I guess that what I’ve heard about Donald…. good pop and and average glove. How many HR’s did he hit this past year? Any idea for fielding % or RZR?
Just me or did T Jack just play himself back into a starting role?
who cares?
14 HR’s in 358 at bats….not bad, but its AA too.
Does Donald really project better than moving Casilla to SS and not trading anyone away? Seems like we have a lot of 2B options.
Might be worth it, depending on who we trade. But I guess unless there’s a sure upgrade in terms of power for the left side of the infield, don’t know if I’d make a move now.
Less excited about ‘09 now, but maybe someone new emerges by ‘10 when the core of other players is still near their peak.
Grduz? He will be 39 mid season next year. He could be fine as a bench player/utility guy for a year (that would mean that Tolbert and Buscher go down) but so could Tolleson, Hughes and Machado.
The equation with any Beltre trade has to include the first round pick he will bring as a free agent after the 2009 season. A good trade to look at to determine Beltre’s value is Holiday’s to the A’s. Given that Holiday is a much better player, Perkins + Dustin Martin + prospect should be more than enough.
If thats all it takes to bring Beltre to MN, it probably would’ve already been done, wouldn’t you think? Or is it a possiblity that the Twins would only make the trade if they can sign Beltre to a multi-year deal? I would be ecstatic if that would be all that we would have to give up, because that would leave us with prospects left to possibly make a run at Hardy or a setup man as well. However I usually agree with you thrylos, i can’t this time. I have to say it would take more then that.
E7
K Law says glove good enough for SS.
J Sheehan says glove not enough
T Jack can handle starting Qb now. He has “matured” with more experience….. Just like Cuddyer could now handle 3b if they start hitting him grounders right now!
I think its right the Mariners would want a lot more than Perk, Martin, prospect. Can’t remember where I heard it, but I think they wanted 3 players before including 2 of our front line pitchers. Too steep even if we sign him longer term.
I’d trade Delmon plus a prospect if we could sign Beltre to a 3 year contract. He won’t be too old then. Altho maybe anything seems younger after considering Blake for so long.
Re: Jason Donald
If we could get him for the stiffs (Mulvey, Humber) we got in the Santana trade I’d do it. But if the Phils are trying to stash him as an eventual replacement for Rollins or Utley, I bet they’ll want a lot more.
The Rockies prefer to keep Garrett Atkins, but the Twins, Dodgers, Giants, and Phillies are all interested. Chase Utley has been a long-time supporter of bringing his former UCLA teammate to the Phils for a reunion.
^MLB Trade Rumors
If I see the name Atkins one more time I’ll puke. The Phils can have him.
What about Jorge Cantu? I read something on Trade Rumors that the Marlins might be interested in parting with him. They are also mildly interested in Ivan Rodriguez. Cantu has spent most of his time at 3rd base, but can also play second. He also hit 29 homers last year. It sounds to me like the Marlins want to cut their payroll a little more than they already have.
It seems to me that the Twins have quite a few catching prospects. Rodriguez is pretty much washed up. I would think a catching prospect for Cantu may not get a deal done, but it just might get the two sides talking.
Cantu can also play 2nd base.
What about Blalock? He’s available, not that old (will be 29 next year) and can hit the stuffing out of the ball: in only 258 AB’s last year due to injury, he hit .287, hit 12 dingers and knocked in 38; prorate that over 500 AB’s and he’s got 25 HR’s and ~80-90 RBI’s. He wouldn’t cost much in a trade (I would expect no one on the 25 man roster) and would provide some nice veteran leadership and a break at first for Morneau. his only issues in my book are 1) he’s been a bit injury prone the last couple years, and 2) his glove at 3B has faultered, thus his move to 1B. Still his career FP is .960 (Blake’s FP I might add) and even with his more recent decline at the position he is still better than Butcher (cringes) and has a great bat. I think he’d be worth a look.
thrylos98,
Please don’t equate the following pretenders to Grudzielanek - a 14-year veteran professional hitter with a Gold Glove in his resume:
1)Tolleson - never had an at-bat above the AA level.
2) Hughes - an infielder so bad he was exiled to the outfield ON HIS WINTER LEAHUE TEAM.
3) Machado - had to DH last year because his arm was too badly damaged to play 2B adequately.
If you are implying that the Twins should choose one of those items from Column#2 ahead of Grudz THIS YEAR, you could lose your license.
And IMO Grudz at 2B, Casilla at SS would be a huge upgrade offensively over Punto-SS; Casilla-2B from last year.
None of those other guys have a chance to be an everyday starting infielder next year.
And Hughes uses an Everlast glove, signed by Oscar De la Hoya.
I know that you are a stern Gardy apologist, but let me put the same scenario in a different context:
Why? Because I don’t invent statistics (Loss By Manager) that has no factual basis except the assumption that “Of course it’d go better the other way”.
You work in a factory supervising assembly. You got a guy who is messing any time you put him on the line. And you like the guy and you keep putting him on the job even though he sucks. The product does not cut it. Your manager fires him. You got a couple more people to replace him and still at the end your competitors are better. Your manager rewards you with a raise.
How would you feel?
In your hypothetical, did you account for the fact my product stuff actually completed far more product than the manager had projected? Or that one of my top employees stopped showing up for work toward the end of the fiscal year?
There’s a surprise…T coming to the defense of the front office.
There’s a bigger surprise, USAFChief once again ignoring the person’s argument.
I was for Blake, but not at 3 years. I am glad the FO didn’t cave in for a third year that they would later regret.
But go ahead, keep missing the point. You’re pretty good at that.
I don’t know what a winter leahue team is.
Let me try winter LEAGUE team.
adrian beltre is in a contract year. so i want him on the twins team
furcal, guzman and them guys will not have the same success because they just wanted to get paid.
sane,
Hughes is a horrid 3B, he is an ok 2B. (as a matter of fact, his career minor league FP is higher than Casilla’s) He (like a whole bunch of other players) suffered from the ring around the rosie position assignments in New Britain.
Tolleson hasn’t played an inning above AA, but so hasn’t Jason Donald, so hasn’t Danny Valencia. Tolleson is ready and I hope he proves it this spring.
I don’t think Boras should be feared as a agent anymore.In a post steroid era,teams are going to speed and moving runners over.Home run hitters are the ones that get the big bucks.With the economy affecting big contracts,Boras will becomke a dinosaur!
[…] Baker of the Seattle Times is reporting that with the Twins apparently breaking off talks with Casey Blake, they will step up efforts to acquire Adrian Beltre. Baker suggests that the Mariners would covet […]
Wouldn’t that be sweet… Beltre for Cuddyer and prospects; But methinks it is just a blogger’s fantasy
thrylos98,
IMO Tolleson, Valencia, and Hughes have something else in common with Jason Donald, in addition to being AA players last year.
They will all be no help to any MLB team until 2010.
That is why I am so convinced that Grudzielanek is an ideal one year solution for the Twins middle infield.
Especially since he hit .395 vs LHP’s last year and Mauer, Morneau, Kubel, Span and (maybe) Buscher could use some help chasing the LHP’s away.
GENO, I don’t think Boras has the teeth he used to (especially with the way the economy is now)
But the concern I’m getting having watched this past season unfold is that the new trend will be to grossly overvalue a player when trading…as teams are starting to expect the sun and moon for players.
So now instead of breaking the bank to improve, teams will have to start selling the farm.
