Figuring out the R.A. Dickey signing
Posted on December 26th, 2008 – 9:26 AMBy La Velle
The Twins have reached agreement with R.A. Dickey on a contract, one that apparently is either a major or minor league deal.
I’ve heard the Twins talk for years about getting a knuckleballer because the pitch seems to flutter more inside domed stadiums than outdoors. I remember the Twins making a run at Tim Wakefield after the 2000 season, only to watch him re-sign with Boston, where he now has a perpetual team option in his deal.
I know Twins manager Ron Gardenhire has proposed trying to teach a struggling prospect in the low minors a knuckleball or funky style to try to jumpstart a career or two.
So it’s not surprising that the Twins are going to sign Dickey, 34.
But in an offseason during which finding eighth-inning help is a higher priority, it’s a little bit of a head-scratcher to see the Twins sign someone to be a middle reliever or spot starter. It’s hard to see that when, if they need a spot start during the season, they can turn to Boof Bonser or Philip Humber or call up Brian Duensing, Anthony Swarzak or even Jeff Manship.
Now it’s fair to come back with the argument that the Twins likely aren’t spending a lot of money here and that teams bring in veteran arms all the time. But the Twins have plenty of options for starters, and we have seen in the past when trying the cagey veteran instead of the kid with more talent has failed.
And, with Humber out of options, the Twins’ bullpen appears full with Humber, Bonser, Jesse Crain, Jose Mijares, Matt Guerrier, Craig Breslow (the smartest man in baseball) and Joe Nathan. You have prospects at Rochester and reliever Rob Delaney on the way at New Britain - and you can always find veteran pitching help to stash at Rochester at the end of spring training when people get cut.
Maybe I’m making too big of a deal about someone they won’t spend a lot of money for. But the bullpen needs a late-inning boost. Juan Cruz is a Type A free agent and Twins will never give up a draft pick. Joe Nelson has been signed. The Twins were interested in Brandon Lyon as of early this week - not sure where they are with that.
There’s always a chance that Jesse Crain’s command sharpens as he gets over a year removed from shoulder surgery. Matt Guerrier, who really should be the middle reliever/spot starter, could see his numbers improve if he’s not in as many pressure situations. My concern: How fans will react if the Twins’ bullpen struggles early with the same old faces.
Twins assistant GM Ron Antony (thank goodness he responded to my text message X-Mas morning when I was panicking for a response) maintains that the Twins are still looking for set-up help: “We will continue to see if we can find upgrades to the pen,” Antony wrote. “We are not looking at him as an eighth-inning guy.” Who goes then?
By the way, read about how Dickey doesn’t have a ligament in his elbow.
And I missed this report that kicked around some players it may take to land Mark DeRosa from the Cubs.
Programming note: I’m filling in at KFAN from Noon to 3 p.m. today. We’ll talk about Christmas gifts, a funny show I watched for the first time last night, hockey with Pat Micheletti at 1 p.m. and Vikings football with Judd Zulgad at 2 p.m.
Oh, I guess we can talk baseball too 
Late update: Just booked Clark Griffith for 12:20 to talk about the big spending Yankees and how it affects the rest of the sport.
270 Responses to "Figuring out the R.A. Dickey signing"
LaVelle,
I too am surprised by this move - if they are going to go after another late inning reliever then who gets the boot from our existing bullpen or are they planning on trading a pitcher? I wouldn’t mind seeing Brandon Lyon in a Twins uniform and I still haven’t given up on acquiring JJ Hardy from the Brewers. On a side note - Breslow has a higher IQ than some of our players batting average!
Per the Chicago Tribune: “Minnesota hasn’t lost its appetite for Mark DeRosa but the Cubs would only consider moving him if they got a package of solid prospects, like outfielder Ben Rivere and pitchers Jose Mijares, Jeff Manship and Andy Swarzak. Even then, it’s hard to picture Jim Hendry pulling the trigger.”
That’s just disgusting.
Not even Kevin McHale would be dumb enough to make that proposed DeRosa trade.
I think the Twins are trying to think outside the box when it comes to putting together guys for a trade and I think the Cubs are on drugs.
I’m not upset about bringing in Dickey but not excited about it either. I think it’s a sign that the Twins intend to trade Bonser and/or Humber before the start of the season.
The Cubs are on crack if they expect the Twins to give up all that for DeRosa no wonder they cant make any trades other teams want way too much for too little.
[…] Twins Insider – […]
Dickey is certainly not a big boost to an area of weakness, so I’m not thrilled. I’d like to think the club is getting set to package someone like Bonser or Humber somewhere for help of some sort, but who really knows? And I agree DeRosa is not worth what the Cubs reportedly want.
Matt Guerrier would be better if he’s not put in as many pressure situations? Correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t that his job? Hell, I’d succeed better at my job if I wasn’t put in as many pressure situations, too! The bottom line is that Guerrier and Crain both struggle with location in pressure situations. They have a tendency to fall behind hitters and that usually translates into either walks or big hits. Those two guys are the sole reason why the Twins didn’t win the division. Plain and simple. Two guys.
i just threw up in my mouth… taste like ham
Did the Twins sign a new catcher just for Dickey or will Joe Mauer be forced to learn how to handle him? Maybe Gardy thinks Mauer has gotten too comfortable behind the plate.
“Did the Twins sign a new catcher just for Dickey or will Joe Mauer be forced to learn how to handle him? Maybe Gardy thinks Mauer has gotten too comfortable behind the plate.”
Gardy will finally have an excuse to realize his dream of having three catchers. Make way for Doug Mirabelli!
Options. It never hurts to have options.
It also doesn’t hurt to have competition. Maybe Guerrier will bounce back a little quicker with someone signed to take his spot?
He’s a AAA innings eater, nothing more. Rochester needs experienced pitching too.
I happened to catch the Twins vs. Mariners in the dome on a Sunday in August last season. Was it Dickey that
tied an MLB record by bouncing four wild pitches to the backstop in one inning?
If Dickey was signed to be “a AAA innings eater,” that’d be bad enough. I can see no reason to have a 34 year old ‘innings eater’ at AAA…I’d rather have a kid with even a one in a thousand chance of ever helping the big club gets those innings.
However, I think it’s worse than that…I think Twins management actually thinks Dickey is a good addition to the major league bullpen.
I predict we’ll be longing for the good ol’ days when Brian Bass occupied his spot.
More important things to worry about (even in the sports world) than what (if anything)the Twins will do with RA Dickey. Must be a slow day for news. Yawn!
We already have a long reliever in Humber who can spot start as well as Bonser. Mijares pitched with heart and enthusiasm last fall for us. He is also lighting them up in Venezuela this winter. He may be our 8th inning guy for the next three years here so hopefully Smith won’t trade him. Our bullpen looks good to me as I would expect that Guerrier, and Crain will both improve from last year. If they can get a guy like Brandon Lyon then we got to work out a trade for Boof, or Humber. Dickey can stay in AAA but I thought we were supposed to get younger there.
This just in… Carl Pohlad and the front office are cheap pricks…
Can he play 3rd Base?
Was it Dickey that
tied an MLB record by bouncing four wild pitches to the backstop in one inning?
Yep. And it was Justin Morneau who on a Saturday at the Dome against KC bounced into at least two DPs. One with the bases loaded.
Guess the Twins should dump him too.
my god if derosa is worth that much the cubs should keep him for sure and consider getting him secret service protection…and im ok with dickey,as if he does well, great, and if not theres no big loss..just something a little different and more competition …thats all good….i just wont give up on begging these guys to do something with the 3rd base spot, and as far as i can see the only thing out there is wiggy…im not into crede at all because i think the risk factor there is so big, but wiggy really does seem to fit our needs at 3rd base—we are kidding ourselves if we think the twins will hit as well with runners on again next year–so thus far we have done nothing to increase our offensive production and i dont need to remind you how much we suffered last year because of the lack of homerun hitters…so lets stop kidding ourselves and think that everyone is going to improve some over last year and we need not do anything to improve…we lost too many 1-2 run ballgames….if there is someone better than wiggy without tearing apart anyone on this active roster, i am all for it, but i havent seen anyones proposal other than some crazy trades…mr smith its still xmas season….still time to give us fans something more than punto and dickey…..
Breslow vs Lew Ford in Geek Wars….
Thor has it right-you will need a catcher and those kind only hit .195 so you waste a roster spot! I am Red Sox Nation and as much as we like Wake, it just ain’t worth it!!
Does nobody understand that IF Dickey pitches well enough to make the Twins,
they will get a guy who can pitch LONG AND OFTEN, because he is a KNUCKLEBALLER?
Not like ALL their other bullpen options who PREFER a day off after pitching one inning.
Not like ALL their other bullpen options who REQUIRE a day off after pitching one inning, two days in a row.
Thats why a “successful” RC Dickey is POTENTIALLY more valuable than Humber, Bonser, Crain, and Guerrier.
He can pitch LONG AND OFTEN, unlike the other “candidates”.
T’s got a point…cherry picking small, random, samples from a larger data base can lead to drawing pretty poor conclusions.
Like, for example, taking a few innings pitched in relief, while ignoring a much larger sample. That might be a bad idea.
Make that RA Dickey.
I got the wrong Dickey.
La Velle E. Would the Twins show any interest in Joe Crede?? or is he to injured to even think he would do for the short time??
It seems like the Twins are stockpiling arms for a possible a trade for possibly JJ Hardy or Beltre for a handful of Twins pitching (They’ve got 13-14 major league ready pitching for 5 starting spots plus a long reliever).
USAFChief,
Consider the fact that pitching relief requires fewer types of pitches to succeeed. Most starters, when they pitch relief, begin by discarding one or two of their least effective pitches.
Dickey can depend on the knuckleball almost exclusively as a reliever.
As an SP Dickey had to mix in more (half) fastballs to survive.
Also, the hitters would only face him once as a reliever, and have less chance to adjust to the knuckleball. (which requires adjustment)
So maybe the larger sample size (as a starter) is not as relevant to predicting his likelihood for success as a reliever.
Something to consider.
For what it’s worth, Dickey had a 2.00 ERA through 36 innings as a reliever. He just got shelled as a starter.
I suppose it makes sense that hitters are thrown off balance by going from someone who throws 90mph+ for six innings to someone who floats a mid-50’s knuckleball at them.
If he can be effective, I’m all for it… but I don’t see that happening.
I can turn this Dickey guy into a Cy Young. I’m impressed that he has already taken out his ligament in his elbow. That way I won’t have to worry about him needing to have Tommy John.
Rick Anderson,
“I can turn this Dickey guy into a Cy Young”
Cy Young?
No.
Dutch Leonard?
Maybe.
ya lets trade dickie back , for BELTRE.,
What is wrong with giving Dickey a try? The Twins have always flirted with the idea of getting a knuckleball pitcher. La Velle mentioned how we wanted Wakefield before. Does anyone remember back in the early 2000’s when the Twins wanted Steve Sparkes, who was a knuckleball pitcher? The Twins signed Dickey last year only to lose him in Rule 5. Let’s see if the Twins long term theory about a knuckleball pitcher in the MetroDump is correct. We have one year to see if it helps us or hinders us and that is even if Dickey makes the major league roster, which isn’t guaranteed.
Really, it isn’t like signing him is that big of a deal and doesn’t take away from them looking for more help in the pen and on the field.
I’m not sure if that article means the Cubs are asking for Mijares, Revere, Swarzak and Manship for DeRosa or just listing some players they might be interested in.
ya, mchale would be dumb enough to make that derosa trade.
Isn’t this the same guy that set a Dome record or some sort of record for most passed balls in an inning?? 6 or something, not to mention the 3 he let go while he was warming up that stopped the game b/c it went all the way behind home plate!! I guess his excuse was that it was the catchers fault…..couldn’t hang on to the ball. So he must’ve thought that Joe Mauer could catch his throws, since he “chose” the Twins over the Mariners.
Wow…Great signing..A guy with a career 5.6 ERA….Who the hell is making the decisions?? “Oh the knuckleball travels better in a dome”…Gee lets just let him pitch home games….What a waste of a roster spot….
Can someone explain to me why a knuckleball would “flutter” more in the dome i want to know the physics involved. Could the “flutter” be contoled even more by the AC guy if so they might be on to something here.
McFail (I mean McHale) would make that Derosa deal in a heartbeat. Look at what he did to the Timberwolves.
To the Twins, we never do a damn thing to improve the club. We never make a big trade or spend 100 million plus on a top notch free agent. The Polads need to sell the club for us to do something to make our team a contender..
Sign Brandon Lyon. He was given the closer role last year and it just got to his head and could not handle it. He came back strong towards the end of the year and was solid. He is going to be phenominal next year.
We never make a big trade
Garza/Young wasn’t a big trade?
Pohlad and Smith suck…
FORGET DeRose from Cubs…one year wonder!
Go after Hardy or a third baseman with power!!! PLEASE….
BC of ND,
“the pitch seems to flutter more inside domed stadiums than outdoors.”
The only possible explanation for that urban legend, is that prevailing outdoor cross-wind may overpower the headwind (which is caused by the velocity of the pitch) and blow the pitch off course.
The headwind causes the pitch to flutter, as the lower-pressure area moves almost randomly over the surface of the ball.
That movement is caused by turbulent airflow, which in turn was caused by the lack of spin on the knuckleball.
I am (was?) an aerodynamicist in the Aerospace Industry.
sane,
I’ve been wanting to write to the Mythbusters for a while now to investigate the myth of the AC in the Metrodome…
T,
That would be an interesting episode.
Thanks sane so if that’s true and it does throw the pitch of course wouldn’t it make the pitch more unpredictable and harder to hit?
Would also make the ball harder to catch.
BC,
“wouldn’t it make the pitch more unpredictable and harder to hit?”
No.
Actually, because every player knows which way the wind is blowing, the knuckleball is more predictable outdoors.
With NO (outdoor cross-)wind, only the turbulent flow caused by the headwind will cause the ball to break, and THAT break is the unpredictable break.
Ok that make sense and i guess your right having a guy with a rubber arm would help the bullpen so maybe this isn’t such a bad signing. I’m curious now as to how hard it will be for Mauer to learn how to catch this guy.
I have pitched knuckleballs, caught knuckleballs, and batted against knuckleballs for most of my playing “career”.
Pitching knuckleballs was by far the easiest of the three.
Does everyone SERIOUSLY hate the move that bad? Does everybody seriously think it’ll affect the team throughout the whole season?
It’s just a low risk signing for AAA depth … it’s not like this ends our BP search or just ruins the offseason … it’s really no big deal.
Sane it’s too bad that you didn’t know Gardy was looking for you years ago.
LaVelle IV,
I love the RA Dickey signing.
Maximum loss is one minor league salary - chump change!
The Twins won’t go down with the ship, (ala Livan-$5 million) because of the minimal investment.
Maximum gain is an inning-eating long reliever who can pitch more innings, more often than a conventional reliever, because he is a knuckleball pitcher.
If he becomes ineffective……AMF!
BC,
Gardy would not have signed me.
Insufficient grit.
Len3 the majority of the bloggers would be upset unless they had signed Texiera or K-rod.
This is a low risk, minor move… I love how everyone gets so pissed off when we sign minor league free agents every year.
Dickey isn’t like Wakefield. He mixes in other pitches including a 90 mph fastball. That said, he does not spot his knuckleball like Wakefield either. But it gives him the ability to mix- which can make him effective. If he throws the ball over the plate, he could be a better middle reliever than Humber or Boof.. so let him earn it. If he does, cheer for him. If not, let him pitch in Rochester.
LaVelle,
if that’s what it takes to get DeRosa from the Cubs… I will actually back Bill Smith if he says NO… in fact… he might get bonus points if he says “WHAT THE #$^t ARE THE CUBS THINKING? HELL NO!!!!!”
Yeah there’s really nothing to hate here.
It’s not like the money spent here is going to deter them from signing someone else, and it’s not like we’re giving Dickey a one-year, $3.5MM guaranteed Major League deal.
He’s going to get a chance to make the club out of Spring Training. Either:
A. He makes the club and pitches well (long shot),
B. He makes the club and pitches terribly, causing him to be sent down (which they’d do, as there’s no salary or commitment to him), or
C. He sucks in Spring Training and in the minors and we never see him in a Twins uniform.
Who cares that they signed him? This is a minimal move that doesn’t warrant the anger that some people are expressing.
I agree it’s been a very frustrating offseason thus far, but teams sign minor league FAs all the time. Why are people getting upset over this?
I assume the point is that the Cubs would want ONE of those guys with a bunch of mid to low level guys…
But the Twins should not even consider that. Swarzak for DeRosa even up? Sure. I will even throw in Erik Lis…
But that is about it.
Steve From Fridley
People want to see some action… we want to see a way for this team to improve.
Since they got their stadium… they have traded away their best pitcher in team history for marginal prospects, traded the best pitching prospect in the organization for a malcontent, signed Mike Lamb, Adam Everett, and Livan Hernandez… and now RA Dickey twice…
Excuse me if I think that Bill Smith is bucking for the Kevin McFailedabortion award as worst front office person in Minnesota and possibly MLB…
Breslow, Morneau, and Nathan deals are all great moves… everything else he has done can at the very least be questionable if not a flat out failure already.
Steve- agreed. At least Dickey is a guy we know who can play a least a little bit at the ML level. I dont remember people posting “Why in the hell would we want Joe Gaetti?!?” or “The Yankees sign CC Sabathia and we sign Bob Koeppel?!?!” last week when we signed those guys to minor league deals…
Speaking of Gaetti, he’s got some good minor league numbers. If only he could play 3B like his old man.
Joe Gaetti and R.A. Dickey might be welcome out on Thunder Island; I haven’t decided yet.
Well, the “if he makes the team out of spring training, fine” theory is all well and good, except Dickey specifically signed with the Twins because someone on the Twins led him to believe he stands a pretty good chance of making the team.
Here’s his quote when he signed:
“It’s not that there wasn’t opportunity in Seattle,” Dickey said. “But I feel like there’s more opportunity in Minnesota for me, which is all based on the way they pursued me and how hard they pursued me. They were very forthright about where they thought I would fit in.”
Just like signing Punto virtually guarantees he’s the starting shortstop in 09, signing Batista pretty much guaranteed he’d be the starting 3rd baseman in 06, IMO signing Dickey pretty much guarantees he’ll be with the Twins when they break camp.
Now, if the Twins make other moves that actually improve the team, then I agree, this is small potatoes.
But that’s not how the Twins do things. I got a nickel against your quarter right now that says Dickey comes north out of spring training, barring injury.
It’s a minor league deal. Get over it. It’s a zero-risk move for the Twins. I’ve never heard so much whining about a minor league contract. Be glad we have three tier-1 players in Nathan-Mauer-Morneau under contract. How quickly we forget the days when Radke was the only All-Star we had on the team.
Does anyone think that the Cubs/Rockies/Mariners would be asking for these seemingly rediculous player packages in return if they were dealing with Terry Ryan and not a GM in his second year on the job? That was a serious qustion by the way, no sarcasm intended.
I don’t think it matters if it’s Terry Ryan or Bill Smith - to me they seem to be the same person (only one guy has a perpetual five o’clock shadow). I think people need to chill out and see what happens in spring training - this isn’t a big deal in the grand scheme of things. Let’s get a 3rd baseman that can smack the ball or else get a ss that has a big bat and move LNP to 3rd.
R.a. Dickey? That makes me want to projectile vomit. Season is over..
You can beat our Pack but you can’t lick our Dickey.
It is not as much that everyone hates the Dickey signing. It is more of our building frustration that the Twins F.O. did not do so much more to improve the team. Especially since we got so close and we have such a young, up and coming nucleus to build upon.
Most of the people on here are die hard Twins fans (including myself). We went into this offseason thinking that the F.O. would have a little extra money to go after that guy for the left side of the infield or that 8th inning bullpen guy. We know that we have the guys available to trade for that impact bat for our infield too. It is just so disappointing that Smith has not really done much to improve this teams chances for 2009 and beyond. People are just frustrated on here right now and justifiably so.
that hitters are thrown off balance by going from someone who throws 90mph+ for six innings to someone who floats a mid-50’s knuckleball at them.
that makes sense, but here is the problem:
last season Dickey’s knuckleball averaged 73 mph and did not have much of a movement. Hitters sat on it like a change up and when someone is throwing exclusively changeups or a 84mph ‘heater’ it is batting practice…
To be effective it needs to be in the 50s low 60s. He needs a pitching coach who can teach him that. Not many of those in the Twins’ system.
Teams have been afraid to make a deal with the Twins ever since we raped SanFran in the AJ trade. Accept it. If there was a deal out there to improve this club, Smith would obviously make it. He isn’t afraid of making a trade, as he proved last year. And he has TR over his shoulder coaching him along. But look at what Chicago wants for an above-average DeRosa! It’s been the same story for Atkins from Colorado, and Beltre from Seattle. These teams are so scared of being the next San Fran that they won’t deal with us unless they are assured they’re getting an overwhelmingly good deal for themselves.
Folks, I suggest some patience here… Teams will be clearing up payroll. The Cubs do not need to do that so they can ask for that moon and the stars in trades. Other teams that are hurting they will be unloading players at 50 cents for a dollar. Players close to minimum or with up to $4-5 mil a year contracts will be expensive. Wait for a few more FA signings and the trade market will start. If the Twins are willing to spend $8-12 mil a year for a third baseman for a year or two, there will be players out there who can make an impact and cost not that much in terms of prospects… There are more than 3 months before the first pitch of the season.
I like it. I don’t think adding dickey is going to be what prevents them from going out and signing Fuentes/Cruz/Lyon etc. Its a good move. He was very good as a reliever last year and I don’t see the harm in giving him a shot if the bullpen is a mess. If he sucks get rid of him but there is the chance he pitches very well.
Is Bill Smith a volunteer, or does he actually get paid for this type of “move”???
I’ll bet Carl bought Eloise a zirconium engagement ring.
thrylos98,
This is in no way a critisism, but just who do you envision as the 8-12 mil 3B available to the Twins?
The Twins build for a future that never comes
Off the subject - I’m going to spring training this year. I’ll be there a few days before the 1st game. Can anyone tell me where I can go and what can I do? Can I just wander around the complex? I’d appreciate some answers and pointers from someone else who has been there.
You’re right, Dave.
I second Paul’s question, thrylos, who do you have in mind?
This is in no way a critisism, but just who do you envision as the 8-12 mil 3B available to the Twins?
Rolen, Glaus, Mora for starters
I agree with you Thyros98. Lets wait and see. I am thinking the FO is putting something together for a trade. But then, I am no expert, but I dont expect to see the FO just stop looking for a 3b of set up man. There is plenty of time left in the off season, no need to worry about it.
traded the best pitching prospect in the organization for a malcontent
I’ve yet to see evidence that Delmon Young has been anything but a standup guy since coming to the Twins.
Meanwhile Garza gets in a fist fight with his catcher in the dugout.
Matt G. and the rest of the bullpen will all pitch better next season (particularly in the second half) IF the starters pitch into the 7th and 8th more often. If not, there will be another meltdown no matter what arms are in the pen. More innings from the starters should equal a more effective bullpen over the long haul.
T-
Malcontent doesn’t have to be physically or outwardly angry, violent, or swear… those are the easy ones to spot, and Garza is a headcase… I never ever denied that.
However, where the problem lies is that Delmon doesn’t seem to do much with, or care much for Joe Vavra, or the coaching staff.
I never read once that he was out early taking BP to work on that swing, his timing or anything like that… nor was he out early to work on fielding in LF in the dome.
He listens to his dad, and to his brother… maybe if we brought in Dymitri we could get something out of Delmon, but there doesn’t seem to be any purpose in Dymitri.
He is just doesn’t seem to care one way or the other which is worse to me than someone who is angry about the pitch selection… and so overly confident in himself that he has a hard time calming down or backing down.
Younger ball players sometimes have to learn how to control themselves…
Delmon Young doesn’t seem to have an ounce of passion at all.
All the talent in the world without any heart… that’s a sin against the baseball gods.
But that’s just my opinion, and what I am picking up.
T-
It also doesn’t help that Carl Crawford and others pointed him out as a problem child in TB, and remember Young did hit a guy with a bat once… (and may be scared to do anything ever again… which may be the problem???). He is gone from the Devil Rays, and they take the Devil out of the name, and win an American League title, and the most games in the team’s history.
I am willing to admit it’s 80% fluke, and timing, but there does have to be something about adding a quality starting pitcher, and getting rid of distractions…
But don’t get me wrong. I want Delmon Young to succeed. I was pissed off about Crawford throwing him under the bus. I want to see him succeed because he’s a twin, and because I want Crawford to shut his fool mouth. You never throw the kids you are supposed to mentor under a bus.
I want Delmon to hit 300 with 20 homers, 90 rbi, and steal 20 bases… I want to see him have 2 errors not 8 (that should have been 12-15).
I don’t hate Delmon Young. I just don’t think he has any respect for the game of baseball, and he doesn’t seem to be the kind of guy to have Mauer or Morneau’s back if you will.
It’s just my feeling on the guy. I want to be wrong
“Delmon Young doesn’t seem to have an ounce of passion at all.”
Nor does Tim Duncan.
Nor did Kareem Abdul Jabaar.
I’ll take both of them on MY basketball team.
“I never read once that he was out early taking BP to work on that swing, his timing or anything like that”
I read that he works long and hard on his hitting. But not enough on his defense.
That sounds like Ted Williams, Dick Allen and Barry Bonds.
If only he becomes half that good of a hitter as any of those guys.
[…] Twins sign R.A. Dickey, although the terms have not been revealed (it may be a minor league deal). La Velle Neal wonders what use the Twins have for the knuckleballer. But in an offseason during which finding eighth-inning help is a higher priority, it’s a […]
BC Beneke-Reports have it that DY is working out daily to get in better shape,that shows he has passion.He is only 23 and who knows how old he is mentally.You don’t have to come across like Pete Rose to prove you have passion!
While the Dickey move on the surface is somewhat confusioning,maybe the Twins are going to,as Matt suggested,getting enough parts together to make a push for Beltre.
Lavelle, why does there not seem to be any talk about extending Mauer? We don’t want to go into next off season with only one year left on his contract. If we have any chance of signing him to a “reasonable” contract it has to be done now I would think. Lock him up now while we still have some leverage to argue he should provide some long term security for himself in case of injury.
I threw at the dome in junior college back in the early 80’s and did think then it was easier to throw a knuckleball. I’m not sure if it was the lack of air current or more the controlled humidity level, but it was easier to get less rotation on a consistent basis. The challenge was the ball seemed to take the same pathway to the plate each time I threw the knuckler. That’s okay if you are a reliever for an inning or two, but not so good as a starter with several innings. You need to have other reliable pitches to keep the hitters off balance. Not sure Dickey does….?
Unbelievable,
“the ball seemed to take the same pathway to the plate each time I threw the knuckler”
That doesn’t sound like a successful MLB knuckler.
You may have had consistantly slow topspin, which will make it drop MOST of the time, with the help of gravity.
No spin, slow backspin and slow sidespins are more unpredictable in my experience. (none of which was in the MetroDome)
Hopefully, RA Dickey doesn’t throw the “Unbelievable!” knuckler.
go twins
He is gone from the Devil Rays, and they take the Devil out of the name, and win an American League title, and the most games in the team’s history.
And the Yankees got A-Rod and haven’t won the World Series since. But I doubt anybody would be willing to blame their lack of performance on him.
(Speaking of which, Ruesse’s article is a good point, but somewhat late…the Yankees have been failing despite throwing money every which way for the past 4 years or so)
Olney’s latest column is about all the teams sitting back now and letting the market drive prices down on the remaining FAs. Unfortunately, the glut of FAs fall in to two categories… OF/DHs and starting pitchers. That bites the Twins in two ways.
First, those aren’t what the Twins need, so they aren’t going to benefit from getting a discount to fill their needs.
Second, those positions are also where the Twins have an abundance of players to offer in trade for a 3B or set-up RP, but because teams can sit around and get a free agent OF/DH/SP, there’s no urgency for them to make a deal with Minnesota.
The Twins are in a tough spot. Some of it of their own making, some of it just bad timing that they couldn’t do much about.
I will agree with one of the comments back a ways… if they aren’t going to spend the payroll room they’ve got right now for an infielder with some power or a set-up RP, they really should look in to locking up Mauer long term. He’s only going to get more expensive.
thyrlos98
Your 9/26 4:24 post is dead on.
DickyBuzz,
“9/26 post”?
Try and keep up!
T-
I would actually come out and say that Alex Rodriguez is one of the reasons why the Yankees are not winning!
It takes a team to win. When the Yankees had Paul O’Neill, and Bernie Williams, and an older Wade Boggs, and a Solid vet like Tino Martinez they had still put together a TEAM more than just talent.
The Yankees can acquire all the greatest players in the game, but until they are willing to die for one another like that 1998 club when Torre had cancer, O’Neill’s dad died, Tino’s dad died, and I think Luis Sojo’s dad died that year as well. That was a team that was bonded, and will always be connected.
Arod has more money than GOD, and so do half the rest of the Yankees… when you can buy your own church to pray in… you aren’t going to get that communion vibe if you know what I’m saying… these guys don’t have anything to bond over except their freaking accounting firms.
JimCrikket
I might hold off on Mauer for one more year because he did have that injury to his knee a few years ago, and because he keeps growing, and that weight, and size in a squat is going to take years off his career… Don’t send him the big contract just yet. He is a great ball player and if he played any other position… give him for 5-8 years.
But I think if they aren’t going to be trading those young pitchers they are going to have to face the fact that if those pitchers put up the same numbers in an arbitration year that they did last year… those salaries are not going to be all under 500K anymore…
Baker 3.5 million
Liriano 5.5 million
Slowey 2.9 million
Blackburn 2.1 million
Perkins 2.3 million
That’s my guess what they would be getting this year if they were all in their 1st year of arbitration.
They have similar years this year and we are looking at 2010
Baker 7.2 million
Liriano 11 million (and traded away)
Slowey 7.0 million
Blackburn 5.5 million
Perkins 5.8 million
Sign Baker to a 4 year 20 million dollar deal
Sign Liriano to a 3 year 25 million dollar deal
Sign Slowey to a 4 year 12 million dollar deal
Sign Blackburn to a 3 year 6 million dollar deal
Sign Perkins to a 3 year 6 million dollar deal.
Yes the salary goes up, but if you aren’t going to trade them… lock them up… having a player under a contract like that gives the ownership the right to write off depreciation on the talent, and to insure those contracts. Worst case senerio they are all hurt, and the Twins are out some money.
Best case senerio the team does actually get better, and you have 2 guys that could be aces, and 3 guys that could be 2nd or 3rd starters locked up to reasonable contracts that make them AMAZING TRADE OPTIONS for other teams to want to pickup in trades once the kids in the minors are all ready.
Jim…
The other thing from a marketing standpoint…
Try to make it a press confrence where they are all signed at the same time… a great way to show commitment.
And getting back to Mauer… he has a .310 with 10 homers 75 RBI and another gold glove year behind the plate (not hard to fathom numbers)… sign him to that long term deal right before you open the brand new stadium… and the Twins fans would eat that up like it was 100 dollar bills falling from heaven. Mauersota would take a whole new level of disgust, but I love marketing… what can I say?
BC B.,
you way overvalue Perkins, you overvalue Blackburn and way undervalue Slowey
thrylos…
Blackburn came through in the clutch last season in the biggest game of his career as a freaking rookie.
I like his style of pitching, and I think that if you compare him as a rookie to Slowey’s rookie season… I did just fine.
I over value Perkins because he’s a lefty that can go either rotation or to the bullpen.
He’s a solid back of the rotation guy, and a great left handed reliever… oh and he’s a lefty so add the premium. It’s a fact that sucks but is true.
I’m a lefty… you’re a righty… you want to go buy a guitar… you pay 300 dollars for it. I’m a lefty I have to pay 450 for the same brand of guitar for a lefty. Or I have to disgrace myself and learn how to play right handed.
Lefty’s are more valuable, and more expensive… I took that into the equation… And I look at the numbers I put up, and I put Slowey at a great deal more money than I put Blackburn or Perkins…
Maybe you just have more Slowey love than you need?
Give Slowey another year of service and put him the numbers that Baker and Lirano have… I have no problem jacking my value for him up… but I did this on seniority as much as talent… Baker and Liriano are going to be in arbitration… they are also your top two starters… Slowey is a 3rd starter… I don’t see him ever being more than that.
Blackburn and Perkins (coming off of an injury mind you, and being jerked from pen to rotation and back before the injury)… have the potential to be more in line with a 2nd or 3rd starter.
Slowey is going to be an inning eater that isn’t going to get burned… Blackburn showed me a lot last year at times that I NEVER EVER SAW from Slowey his first season when he was batting practice.
these guys don’t have anything to bond over except their freaking accounting firms.
But I know for a fact there wouldn’t be a commenter here that would protest if the Twins somehow brought A-Rod in to play 3rd base.
The Yankees are a bunch of great players…but they don’t have a manager that can get them to play together. Or maybe it is just that there’s too damn many egos and a local media more than willing ot feed them.
25 years old, 850ish OPS, plays most premium defensive position better than anyone in the world…I would not tempt him to test free agancy by waiting another year, esp with yanks and sox in need of catching.
And the slowey/blackburn comparison is valid in arguing for increased value for blackburn, but then what about baker? Fans were ready to write him off and look what he turned into. This is slowey’s 3rd year and I would not be surprised to see him turn into an ace.
T-
Bringing in an Arod to this team could possibly work, but it could also destroy the team.
I think I am a big enough baseball fan to get beyond my own ego, and say that while I would take Arod… his track record hasn’t shown me that he makes a team better, and for what he’s getting paid… he should have 7 rings, and have 20 hospitals built in his name. Anything less and he’s just a spoiled millionaire that plays for himself. Let him be a golfer… Baseball is a team sport.
Slowey is a 3rd starter… I don’t see him ever being more than that.
Blackburn and Perkins (coming off of an injury mind you, and being jerked from pen to rotation and back before the injury)… have the potential to be more in line with a 2nd or 3rd starter.
Here are some of their numbers last year (along with some of other starters for comparison) :
Slowey: 1.15 WHIP 5.13 K/BB 6.90 K/9
Cliff Lee: 1.11 WHIP 5 K/BB 6.85 K/9
Lincicum (NL): 1.17 WHIP 3.15 K/BB 10.51 K/9
Baker: 1.18 WHIP 3.36 K/BB 7.36 K/9
Santana (NL): 1.15 WHIP 3.27 K/BB 7.91 K/9
Peavy (NL): 1.18 WHIP 2.81 K/BB 8.60 K/9
Liriano: 1.40 WHIP 2.09 K/BB 7.93 K/9 (includes awful 1st half)
Bonser: 1.48 WHIP 2.69 K/BB 7.38 K/9
John Lester: 1.27 WHIP 2.30 K/BB 6.50 K/9
Blackburn: 1.36 WHIP 2.46 K/BB 4.47 K/9
Carlos Silva: 1.60 WHIP 2.16 K/BB 4.05 K/9
Jason Bergmann: 1.43 WHIP 2.04 K/BB 6.19 K/9
Perkins: 1.47 WHIP 1.90 K/BB 4.41 K/9
Livan (Twins): 1.632 WHIP 1.86 K/BB 3.48 K/BB
Unless Cliff Lee, Lincicum, Peavy and Johan Santana are #3 type starters, Slowey isn’t either…
Not to mention that Slowey is the youngest of the bunch…
one more:
Garza: 1.24 WHIP 2.17 K/BB 6.24 K/9
Bringing in an Arod to this team could possibly work, but it could also destroy the team.
It would ultimatley come down to how the manager was able to maintain the atmosphere around the clubhouse.
No doubt that if A-Rod walked into the Dome in May…there’d be some awkwardness as the media (most noteably the national sports media) immediately labeled him the clubhouse leader despite Morneau, Mauer, and even Cuddy would likely have more respect at the beginning.
Thrylos…
Numbers are a big part of the game, but they are not everything as I keep getting told when I badmouth Punterrible.
Lets just leave it at this. If I were managing the team and I had my choice in a big game… I would take Blackburn over Slowey.
I would take Slowey over Perkins… I’m just saying that you value whip and K’s per 9 innings more than they are worth.
I am not sure that I wouldn’t take Blackburn over Liriano or Scott Baker in a big game either, but if I had to go for 30 starts I would take either of those two over Blackburn if that makes sense?
We can agree to disagree because it’s a moot point as the Twins are going to be failing to sign all of them, and will hand us all a big lie and a smoke screen that they are going to make the team better, and by 2011 4 of the 5 will be gone.
T-
If the Twins picked up Arod… the national media would annoint him the savior which would cause a huge mutiny in Minnesota as they already have Baby Jesus Mauer… the people who picket Marylin Manson shows and Abortion Clinics would be picketing the dome/target field…
Believe me I am learning the wrath of picking on slap hitting singles boy Joltless Joe Mauer… lol.
But seriously… this is a team that won’t even spend 6 million a year to guarentee an adequate 3rd baseman in Casey Blake. 27 million for anyone other than their head accountant… no way the Pohlads spend that kind of cash.
Be well, I’m not sure I’ll be on until Monday. I have to write up News Letters for two areas, and I haven’t figured out how to print addresses on envelopes so I have to write it out… 350 names… That is one of my new years resolutions! Learn how to use my printer properly.
Numbers are a big part of the game, but they are not everything
‘numbers’ describe objectively what had happened on the field… they are not ‘everything’ but they are as close as you can get to an objective description of performance.
It is like saying that in basketball someone who averages 28 points per 40 minutes is better than someone who averages 3 and in football someone who averages 7 yards a carry is better than someone who averages 2. Yes, the rest of the team has something to do with it, but if the two players are playing the same position in the same team, that factor is negligible…
BC. B,
I haven’t figured out how to print addresses on envelopes so I have to write it out
check this out…
http://www.worldlabel.com/Pages/template_1.htm
Even if you do not have the sticky label pages, it will be faster to do it on a blank sheet of paper and cut it…
sane, agreed there is a big difference between a junior college pitcher and a major leaguer. I’m sure I couldn’t carry Dickey’s jock strap. But I did notice the knuckleball in the dome was different than outside. Yeah, I got hit that day too….
[…] Minnesota Twins beat writer La Velle E. Neal III discussed the Twins signing of knuckleballer R.A. Dickey. Just like La Velle, I too am a little confused as to the Twins thoughts behind this. The Twins […]
why do twins waste money!!! They always have young players step up one way or another ex. buschner, casilla, span, gomez, and the list goes on. The pitchers last year. I am just sick of them getting players that are borderline Punto, Lamb, Dickey etc and that list goes on. Get someone that is going to help and spend a few dollars on one or two good players and let the younger prospects step up. I say you make cuddyer your 3rd basemen and tell him that makes this team a lot better as of right now. Why doesnt he step up be a team player and give the twins a great chance at being a great team next year.
Unbelievable!,
I wasn’t dissing your knuckler.
I have thrown a few myself that left the park without spinning.
I was just theorizing that Dickey would be able to make his knuckler dance in the Dome.
And IMO, the lack of a crosswind indoors would make his knuckler less predictable but more controllable than it is outdoors.
sane,
a couple of things:
a. here are the career numbers and the dome career numbers of knuckleball pitchers (as you can tell, the results are inconclusive on whether a dome is a better situation for a knuckleball pitcher) :
Phil Niekro
career: ERA: 3.35 oppOPS: .677
Domes: ERA: 3.31 oppOPS: .672
Joe Niekro
Career: ERA: 3.59 oppOPS: .685
Domes: ERA: 2.95 oppOPS: . 636
Charlie Hough
Career: ERA: 3.75 oppOPS: .686
Domes: ERA: 3.65 oppOPS: .707
Wakefield
Career: ERA: 4.32 oppOPS: .741
Domes: ERA: 3.92 oppOPS: .701
Tom Candiotti
Career: ERA: 3.73 oppOPS: .698
Domes: ERA: 4.11 oppOPS: .714
Dennis Springer
Career: ERA: 5.18 oppOPS: .822
Domes: ERA: 4.53 oppOPS: .759
Hoyt Wilhelm
Career: ERA: 2.43 oppOPS: .579
Domes: ERA: 4.70 oppOPS: .775
b. (and even more importantly) The particular knuckleball pitcher (R.A. Dickey) is different than all of them because he throws a knuckler at mid 70s and it looks like a changeup to hitters. Most people who played a few years of ball if they knew that a 73 mph ball was coming at them fairly flat they will hit it. He needs to get it down at least 10-15 mph and add more movement to be effective…
mick, this is a minor-league signing. It’s basically nothing, not worth getting so upset over. This is not Lamb or Livan or Ponson. Chances are unless this guy blows up in spring training or they trade somebody else, he ain’t seeing much time in the Dome anyways.
It doesn’t say the Cubs want *all* those guys. It says a package of solid prospects, such as A, B, C, D.
thrylos98,
Eddie Fisher also threw a high speed knuckler and was very successful.
Career Totals
W L ERA G GS CG SHO SV SVO IP H R ER HR HBP BB SO
85 70 3.41 690 63 7 2 81 — 1538.2 1398 659 583 149 27 438 812
sane, btw I still owe you a prize for having 2 of the top 3 bloggers one-liners in 2008. I about had my Diet Coke come back through my nose on the winning Punto comment…
thrylos98,
Dickey was 2-0, 2.00 as a reliever last year.
In 2007, he was the PCL Pitcher of the Year with 13-6, 3.72 in the ultimate hitters league.
And, I am guessing that Las Vegas and Albuquerque aren’t the best climates for throwing knuckleballs.
I still throw knuckleballs at my HS practices to crack up the kids.
If I throw it hard, I get less movement, but I get later movement which is even tougher to hit or catch.
Just like any breaking ball, more velocity leads to less movement.
But more velocity causes later movement which more than compensates, because the hitter gets no time to react to it.
I coach at the 13 year old level where they are just starting to see breaking balls for the first time. I throw a curve and a knuckler during BP. They’re still young, but seem to learn reaction to the curve ball easier than the knuckler. Wish kids today would learn how to throw a good knuckler…a good one still freezes batters more often and its less wear and tear on the arm.
Unbelievable!,
I will accept the Diet Coke Nasal Spray Story as my prize.
I will donate any additional prize to your 13-yr-old team.
I say you make cuddyer your 3rd basemen and tell him that makes this team a lot better as of right now. Why doesnt he step up be a team player and give the twins a great chance at being a great team next year.
Two problems:
1) Cuddyer sucks at 3B.
2) Cuddyer sucks at 3B.
Making Cuddy the 3B doesn’t improve the team. And he can’t just “step it up” and be good at 3B. You might as well ask Morneau to suck it up and pitch out of the bullpen.
Gotta love the latest Twins PR, spewn from Joe C, about how they can’t improve the team in 2008 or 2009 because they have some arb-eligible players in 2010.
Hey Chief, just for the fun of it…could you post your fun little spin on what would suck if the Twins would go out and sign Manny Rameriez? Or if they traded for Atkins/Beltre?
Because I do so love your tinfoil laced tirades.
That the signing of Dickey is the most exciting Twins news to talk about says everything. But, I guess it is better than the idiotic bashing of Mauer and Cuddyer or the even more idiotic fantasies of “bringing in” ARod or Manny that is the usual conversation around here.
why don’t we sign Rocco Baldelli for DH?
Breaking news, T: The Twins aren’t going to sign Manny Ramirez.
Haven’t you heard? They have some (gasp!) ARB-ELIGIBLE players in 2010. Good heavens, they might have to play next season with a 20 or 21 man roster!
Do try to keep up.
Again, common sense. Why would Manny, Randy, Griffey Jr., or CC ever WANT to play here?. Answer: they wouldn’t. You could throw all the money you wanted to at them. They wouldn’t come. They wouldn’t sign. End of story.
Breaking news, T: The Twins aren’t going to sign Manny Ramirez.
It’s called having an imagination. You know…dreaming? Having fun?
You really should try it. It makes baseball far more enjoyable.
TK(2): I actually heard a few reports that Boras and Manny would consider settling for a year somewhere (at like 20 mil) just to “ride out” this supposed change of mindset in the MLB.
But I get the feeling that the theme these days is going to be “All roads lead to New York.”
It’s almost seeming like an inevitability. I thought maybe they had seen the light after refusing to deal for Santana…
If the twins bolster their bullpen, we have a chance. Brandon Lyon would fit well in MN. I hope the Twins will consider other options as well. The Twins should go after Wigginton for 2 yrs. I would be interested, if the twins have enough money, in signing Fuentes to be a set-up man. A top priority for this offseason should be resigning Joe Mauer. Lastly, the twins should explore trading. Players they could trade for are: Mark Derosa, Luis Castillo (with salary help from mets. I like the signing of R.A Dickey because he will be a decent long reliever- anyone would be better than Boof.
Matt: Extending Mauer now is a smart move, as they’ve got the money NOW instead of next year when there’s risks that his negotiations start getting in the way with all those arbitration guys.
But I have to disagree on Castillo. Since he’s left the Twins, he’s had leg problems like crazy for the Mets. While he did a lot to hold down 2B (and the lead off spot) for a year and a half, Casilla (and even Punto) are better options these days. Plus I think Morneau is finally getting used to having a 2B that can actually get to some of those popups by the dugout.
Speaking of Morneau, how cool is that get an honor like that? Especially when he’s competing with guys like Steve Nash and like 80% of the NHL.
Still waiting for a 3rd baseman
jb: What would you consider the “ceiling” would be on an offer to Wigginton before you’d consider it too much? (For reference: I’ve said about 36/4 or 30/3)
Also, what would be the max you’d be willing to give up in order to bring in a guy like Atkins or Beltre? (For reference: I’ve suggested Cuddyer/Kubel + Perkins/Slowey)
Keep in mind that you’d have to also figure in that Beltre would need a contract extension before 2010 rolled around.
As another point of reference. I consider the following players untouchable.
Mauer
Morneau
Casilla
Span
Young
Baker
Blackburn
Mijares
Nathan
The following are guys I’d hate to see go without something coming in to replace them, but wouldn’t be sad if they were dealt for a need.
Breslow
Buscher
Harris
Gomez
I left out the four listed as starting points for a trade, because it should be obvious that I wouldn’t be adverse to seeing them dealt for a need.
I should make it more clear: I’d only pull the trigger on a deal for Beltre if it was guaranteed he’d sign an extension. Similiar to the Mets deal for Santana last season.
From MLBTradeRumors…
Tony Massarotti writes that the Red Sox had a shot at Mark Teixeira. The Scott Boras camp was proposing $176MM guaranteed for eight years with vesting options that could’ve brought the total to $220MM over ten years. Ultimately the Yankees beat Boston’s offer by $10MM, with no options and a full no-trade clause.
Jesus….
The Yankees may win one in the next few years, but they’re going to hit that same problem they’re supposedly trying to overcome in a few more. An aging A-Rod, Tex, CC and Burnett…all with complete No-Trade and No-Options?
Wait, no. CC has an out at 3-years. But I’m guessing he’d be stupid to exercise it, as the only team that would likely sign him would be the Yankees…(see Rodriquez, Alex c.2007)
T,
Tex is 28.
In three years, he will be aging only by Twins’ standards.
T I would want Atkins and here is what I would give up.
DY or Cuddy
and a choice of a Perkins or Blackburn and a prospect TBNL
I think most posters to this site undervalue our starters, all of them, across the board. I’m not a big stats guy but I respect stats as a means of partial verification. Think about the first-year records of starters throughout Twins history and compare the numbers to last year’s starters, all of whom completed their first full year in MLB. Think Radke, Merritt, Boswell… Am I off-base, or should we be reasonably excited about these guys? Maybe one of the stat geeks can run a comparison, like Perkins to Merritt, Liriano to Kaat, Slowey to Radke, Blackburn to Boswell, Baker to Goeltz?
sane I don’t know if you had heard about Santa going bonkers in Covina. To bad. Way sad story in the paper.
jimmybee, that was actually another guy IMPERSONATING Santa…
I don’t know about Beltre. Since Beltre has a no trade to the Twins claus I don’t really know who I would give up in order to obtain Beltre. Maybe Span and Kubel or Span and Mulvey or Humber and see if they bite.
birdofprey It hits home for me I am a native to that valley area
In three years, he will be aging only by Twins’ standards.
So it’s not as bad as A-Rod (who’s 42 by the time that’s up?)
Adam Dunn is a FA so if we picked him up to DH it would only cost the Twins a contract. What does anyone think of a 40 HR + a year DHing for us
birdofprey: I think the trend on the Strib is to overvalue players that people like and undervalue players they don’t.
And while that may seem “obvious”, it’s not exactly a slight over/under…it’s a full on difference between adore and deplore (are those the right words?)
But I suppose that’s the case with any fanbase really. You’re only as good as your last season/game/AB…
Can anyone tell me there opinion on why the Twins have needs at the closure of every seasons but never seem to address there needs at FA signing times.
I don’t think it would take anything close to $36/4 or $30/3 to sign Wigginton.
I would guess he’ll get something close to what Blake got.
So, T, if Wigginton signs for, say, $6.5M per year for 4 years or less, you’d say the Twins should’ve signed him?
USAFChief Would you take a flyer on Sosa. Probably very inexpensive and we could try him at DH
No to Sosa. Could probably sign him for a song, but until the Twins do something to clear the current logjam at DH/OF there’s no point. There’s not room on the bench for another part time DH.
If the Twins were to trade Cuddyer, say, for a reliever, then I wouldn’t be opposed to a minor league contract and spring training invite.
I’d rather they trade two outfielders (Cuddyer/Kubel or Cuddyer/Span) for 3b/relief help, and sign Burrell to DH.
USAFChief if the Twins traded 2 OF’s what would you want for the Outfield to look like next year
Say they trade Cuddyer and Kubel, the OF would be Span/Gomez/Young left to right, with Burrel at DH and Pridie as the 5th outfielder.
Add in whatever they added to the pen and/or infield in return, I think that’s a stronger team than they currently have, it ‘unblocks’ the current OF/DH situation, and allows space for Mauer to DH on some of the days he’s not catching.
USAChief
From what I’ve read Wigginton wants 8-9 million a year, and a 4 year deal…
I got that from a couple of blogs so it’s not top notch sources, but he wants more than Casey Blake is getting because he is 4 years younger.
I would love to find a way to get Burrell in this lineup.
However, unless he can suddenly play 3rd base better than he did in College and the minors (at 40+ lbs heavier, and 10 years older)… I just don’t see it.
This team is going to at best put a late bid in on Joe Crede with an incentive laiden contract with the hope that he has enough in him, and enough anger at the White Sox to put up a great season.
However, that is best case senerio… my guess is that this team doesn’t do a damn thing the rest of the off season, and the Twins appologists will defend management/ownership tooth and nail.
Span/Gomez/Young I would absolutely love this lineup. Gooooooooo for it in a Newyork minute. I don’t even know what a Kubel Cuddyer package or seperate would bring.
I happen to agree with you, BC. I’ve felt since the Twins signed Punto and Smith said he ‘wasn’t embarrassed’ to start the season with Buscher/Harris that the Twins were pretty much done. I don’t even think they were serious about Blake.
As for Wiggy, what he ‘wants’ and what he ‘gets’ might be two different things. I don’t think he’ll get that much, he’s not that good a player. I’m sure Crede ‘wants’ a 3 or 4 year deal as well, but he won’t get it either.
Burrell is definately doable. They have the money, and can actually help themselves by creating the roster space to sign him. He’d look good in the middle of the order
They won’t do it, but it’s fun to talk about.
Beneke 7:00 start today for the Wolves. I wonder if Love will be on the floor more tonight to showcase his talents against Mayo for tonights event. I hope he is the only reason to watch the Wolves. He is the next rebounding king ala Rodman.
I would guess he’ll get something close to what Blake got.
From what I recall from JoeC’s article a while back, the Twins offered Wiggy (or at least contact his agent about) “Blake Money”, but apparently didn’t get anywhere with it.
However:
So, T, if Wigginton signs for, say, $6.5M per year for 4 years or less, you’d say the Twins should’ve signed him?
I would agree that the Twins should try if that’s all it would take. But I think once we start getting beyond 4 years it starts getting a bit much.
And yes, the 9/10 mil is high. But I was talking in terms of a ceiling. As in the amount that tiptoes absurdity and lands squarely in “Who’s your agent, Boras?” territory.
Will I be disappointed? Yes. I was disappointed when the Twins didn’t get in on Rowand (though I guess in the long run they stumbled onto Span so it paid off).
I guess I won’t foam at the mouth or anything though.
I still want to see them take a shot at Cabrera. I could live with an IF of Morneau, Casilla, Cabrera, Buscher/Harris.
As for Wiggy, what he ‘wants’ and what he ‘gets’ might be two different things.
The downside being that when you look at what happens in Free Agency, “what he wants” tends to eventually be “what he gets”.
Because just when you thought the league had finally hit a point where enough is enough (see Rodriquez, Alex c. 2007) somebody finally caves and pays out (see Yankees, New York c. 2007)
Jimmybee
Love will do fine. I have said he would do fine all along. Mayo scoring 20 a game in Memphis is one thing, but would he have scored like that on this team? The Wolves are still 3 years away from being a .500 team at their best (unless a draft pick become a god).
You got any source for the Twins offering Wigginton “Blake money?”
Because from what I recall from JoeC’s article (12/17), the Twins have had “little to no dialogue” with Wigginton.
T-
Cabrera is kind of scaring me because I have not heard of anyone even talking to him, or about him anywhere online since USA TODAY annointed him the 21st best free agent available, and predicted he would come here… I have not seen another word.
I would like to see them do something… something isn’t always the right thing, but something is more than the nothing that they have done so far, and with this team being as young as it is, there is too much of an opportunity for them to take a step backwards at the status quo.
I still have a feeling that the platoon at 3rd is the Twins way of saying we are done picking up for the season. RA Dickey weren’t you a fan of him Beneke
Rumor:
The Lions want Chilli as their next Head Coach, and are willing to give up a #1 draft choice.
My bad!
That’s not a rumor.
Its an alcohol-induced dream.
How about trading cuddy and Kubel to Seattle for Beltre(only with extension in place of 3-4 years) and Signing Dunn to DH. Getting rid of Cuddy’s contract and the fact that Dunn is a non-tendered FA(costs no draftpicks). Gives the Twins a better lineup for the next few years. I would also look at extending Mauer NOW!!!
2009 lineup
Span
Casilla
Mauer
Beltre
Morneau
DY
Dunn
Gomez
Punto
jimmy bee says:
December 29th, 2008 at 3:51 pm
Rumor:
The Twins are in the process of Glen Taylor purchasing the team and are going to start young in a rebuilding process
My bad!
That’s not a rumor.
Its an alcohol-induced dream.
“How about trading cuddy and Kubel to Seattle for Beltre(only with extension in place of 3-4 years)”
He (Beltre) can’t be traded to the Twins with his no trade clause saying he doesn’t want to be here.
Jimmy Bee,
No trade clauses are just an opportunity for the player to get a little extra cash to come your way. It’s not a deal breaker.
I mean seriously if this were the NBA, or we were playing in the mid 90s… I get putting Minnesota on a no trade clause…
But seriously… you have a rich owner, a new stadium, a team that has made the playoffs or been over .500 for the better part of the last decade… What reason is there to say Don’t ever trade me to Minnesota. God don’t make me have to play fundemental baseball, and make the playoffs most years…don’t do that.
It’s not like Beltre has 3 million dollars in commericals that he would be out of if he played here as apposed to Seattle.
So don’t even worry about a no trade clause. It’s not like he’s living the high life in Seattle that he’d never see in the summer in Minnesota here, lol.
Jimmybee…
However… if it were the wolves… and the average team was offering him 10 million…we’d have to offer him 25 million just to get the opportunity to talk to his agent.
Hey LENIII and all, just read on ESPN website that Lexi got hit in the chops during a winter league game and had to leave the game. Does anyone have any more info on this?? Hope he’s not badly hurt.
Crickett’s chirping. Do your job LEN. Give us something.
Beneke what would they have to pay your agent for you to play for the Wolves?
Jimmy Bee…
To get me to play in the NBA… I would need a team of personal trainers, steriods, a massage therapist on staff (on call), a defribulator on the side, a hyperbolic chamber, and a Catholic priest, buddhist monk, Rabbi, and a Clerique… (I want to be sure that if I died on the court my soul wouldn’t be stuck having to watch the rest of the wovles play for all eternity… that would be worse than hell).
oh and an epi pen! maybe two…
But salary wise… I need about 60K to live a decent life. So whatever 60K comes to after taxes.
NBA Meal money?
BC — I don’t think that is enough to play for the wolves. Just to be forced to attend the rest of this years games would might cause someone to go into suicidal depression. But back to baseball. The biggest negative to Beltre is that Boras is his agent and giving that F any more money this year makes me feel sick. Would still like to see what it would take to get Aitkins and Street from CO.
BC,
The first time you take the charge from LeBron, your ashes will be spread instantaneously on the Target Center floor, and your family will only get the $60K.
You are better off keeping your current job.
Sid,
It was a joke…
I am 36, 6′2 220 lbs. 12 years ago I took a charge from a 6′7 guy and barely survived.
He was nowhere near as talented as a Timberwolves player let alone LeBron…
But then again… I refer to my religious team to keep my soul from expiring and lingering in Target Center.
Though I would like to come back as one of Carl Pohlad’s dollar bills…
Those things are kept safe and sound, and treasured forever…
Because from what I recall from JoeC’s article (12/17), the Twins have had “little to no dialogue” with Wigginton.
To me that sounds like:
Twins: “Blake money?”
Agent: “No. More.”
Twins: “Oh. Well, we’ll get back to you…”
BC: I agree with your reasoning. There’s no ACTUAL reason to not want to be a Twin. The only reason he added the Twins was to pump up the potential contract he’d get since he knew the Twins were looking.
Though I’m surprised Seattle would let him, as it would make it harder to negotiate with a team that appeared to still be interested (checked during the season, checked back afterwards)
Heck, if he came to the Twins he’d be a bigger star than he was in Seattle, as he’d be considered “the savior” if he put together a solid season.
Sure he’d compete for attention with Morneau, Nathan, and Mauer…but he’d still get more love from the local media here than he would in a place like New York (just another big name) or Seattle.
I can’t believe people are talking about trading Kubel. He had 3 fewer home runs than Morneau in 180 fewer at-bats.
I am suprised Boston hasn’t made a play for Beltre yet. He would fit there and keep Youk at 1B. Makes you think that he must want too much money
BC,
I know it was a joke.
For any of us to take a charge from an NBA big, would be like an 18-wheeler hitting a bicycle.
BFE,
“I am suprised Boston hasn’t made a play for Beltre yet. He would fit there and keep Youk at 1B. Makes you think that he must want too much money”
The Red Sox still have their Teixeira money laying around un-spent.
The problem is probably what the Mariners are asking for in a trade package.
What would the Mariners take from Boston that’s the equivalent of what they want from the Twins?
Neither Beltre or Hardy will ever be Twins! Will you people just let it go!
No power hitting infielder is going to join this team! they’ve had a couple chances to do it this off-season and the Twins have chose to sit on their pocketbook! Then they have Joe C. try and sell us some propaganda about next years pay increases! Well wouldn’t this be the year to try and win then? If we’re not going to be able to afford all these young studs in our rotation then why isn’t this year be taken more seriously? Always planning for the future that never comes~!!!
FU CHEAP BASS TERDS!
FU CHEAP BASS TERDS!
The Twins are run by fish poop?
Also, people are dreaming about Hardy. Not because of the money…but because the Brewers ain’t parting with him easily.
The best comparison would be if a team called about trying to get Morneau.
Jake/Jeff/Ken:
Go home, we’ve already got herb/tommy/bill/gardy to cover our schizophrenic troll needs.
And to be true, he’s better (worse?) at it than you.
On the Dunn front:
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/12/dodgers-interes.html
It looks like Dunn would prefer the Cubs, but now the Dodgers apparently have gotten his interest.
Which would make it tough for the Twins unless they can roll in and outbid. And I’m guessing with the Cubs (And now Dodgers) that’s going to be rough.
So many bloggers, so many dummies. Here’s your logic:
1. The Twins didn’t draw well when they were winning, but if they don’t spend more for FAs, you’re not going to the games.
2. The new stadium will draw fans, so, even though the Twins aren’t in the new stadium drawing sellouts every game, they should know that all of you reasonable fans will attend many games in the new stadium and so the Twins should spend now money they haven’t received from increased attendance that hasn’t occurred.
3. The Twins should pay yahoos like Wigginton salaries close to Mauer’s and Morneau’s thus setting up a need to really go high with such players at contract expiration.
4. Pohlad contributed $80M to the new stadium, but he’s cheap and you all paid for the rest of the stadium, ignoring the fact that it wouldn’t have been approved without Pohlad’s contribution.
When ever I read your comments, for some reason, I’m asking myself: “Where’s Beavis?”
The Twins should pay yahoos like Wigginton salaries close to Mauer’s and Morneau’s thus setting up a need to really go high with such players at contract expiration.
they already did that by making Punto the 5th highest player in the team and Cuddyer the 4th highest…
It’s too bad that Cuddy got hurt like a week into that contract…
We’ll never really know how this team would’ve looked had they gone Mauer/Cuddyer/Morneau 2/3/4.
Thrylos98:
First, try addressing all of my comments.
Second, your logic is weak and specious. Punto is a distant 5th in salary and you want to make Wig the 4th highest paid player at a salary much closer to Mauer’s and Morneau’s. Then, the Twins will have to pony up much more for them when the current contracts expire. This won’t be possible, so the might lose one or both of them. Then, you’d complain about Pohlad being cheap.
Third, Cuddyer was injured last year; if he’d left the Twins, you’d be complaining about it; see what he does in 2009 if he’s not traded.
Thankfully, yahoos like you don’t have any say in running the Twins or they’d be as broke as the US gov’t.
However, though you’ve no financial sense, you’d be a good politician, because you have great ideas for over spending with other people’s money on things that make you feel good.
I’ll bet a genius such as you even thinks it’s a good idea for Congress, who’s overspent by trillions of dollars, to take over the auto company that lost money over spending by billions of dollars.
You’ve gotta be Beavis best friend.
Cuddyer was injured last year; if he’d left the Twins, you’d be complaining about it;
No 
actually I hope the Twins find a taker for him
Just to clarify things… I do not say that the Twins should overpay (and they did overpay for Cuddyer), but that they should stop being spendthrifts taking over salaries of 5-6 iffy players at $3-6 mil a pop (like they did last year) and should take over 2-3 salaries of good players at $8-12 mil a year. They will be better off doing that.
(I am leaving alone the sophomoric juvenile stuff, btw)
Thrylos98, you’re missing the point; salaries are relative to revenue and what’s being paid to other players on the team. In this context, the Twins can’t afford Wig.
Last year, most of you bemoaned the Twins offseason moves and loss of Hunter and Santana.
Give it a rest and go to the games and support the team.
(And get a sense of humor; there are enough over-inflated egos in the world.)
thrylos: I think what Joe’s referring to is the likely fan reaction had the Twins resigned Morneau and Nathan but let Cuddy walk (or dealt him) going into 2007.
salaries are relative to revenue and what’s being paid to other players on the team.
Yes for the first part, no for the second part. The marker drives a price for a player, the teams based on their revenue decide on whether or not to add another player. The only cases where a salary is driven by what other players make is during arbitration.
For the record, I was a proponent of the Santana trade and the Hunter non-signing, too. You just cannot run a successful club with hefty contract for players past their prime… (That’s why I did not like the Cuddyer extension also…)
T says:
Yes, if Cuddy had been allowed to walk in 2007, everyone would’ve screamed about the cheap Pohlad; he got injured, so now everyone blames that on the FO.
Wig at 5, 6 or 7 mil a year is just too much of a risk for a team with the Twins’ revenue. It not like he’s being hotly pursued by a lot of teams.
Some people really need to get grounded in reality. Dunn may or may not be a better replacement in the OF than Cuddy, but he’d cost a heckuva lot more. Seeing what Cuddy does this year probably is more prudent. Cuddy strikes out a lot less than Dunn, so if Cuddy hits .275/20/90, that may be better than Dunn who’d K 100+ times.
Cuddy isn’t past in prime; he got injured last year, that doesn’t mean that he’s past his prime.
And if you don’t believe that what one player earn impacts what will have to be paid to others, then this unreasonable position makes it impossible to reason with you on salaries.
is the likely fan reaction had the Twins resigned Morneau and Nathan but let Cuddy walk (or dealt him) going into 2007.
I think that the Twins (and the fans) should learn from team history and not overreact about those thinks… I do not know whether or not you remember when Viola was traded and Gaetti was not re-signed and the fan reaction back then… Those moves, plus the targeted use of the money to sign 2 impact players made 1991 happen. This FO is trying, but really has to go after impact players…
Joe,
it has been mathematically shown that the prime years for baseball position players are between 25-29. Cuddyer will be 30 at the beginning of next season; that makes him past his prime.
f you don’t believe that what one player earn impacts what will have to be paid to others, then this unreasonable position makes it impossible to reason with you on salaries.
see what Manny Ramirez gets in the open market compared to Texeira, even though he had a better year than Texeira, and then tell me how much Manny’s salary is influenced by Texeira’s…
All of you don’t address my main point. In this century, the Twins have one of the best records in basball. So, they were winning, but, they weren’t drawing the fans. Therefore, the FO has no obligation to go after an impact player until the fans show that they’ll support a winning team. As in, put the horse before the cart.
In other words, the FO is saying to the fans: ‘Show me the money.’
thrylos: I would’ve been 7. So any memories would’ve been of the vauge “That was AWESOME!” variety.
Joe,
only about 25% of a team’s revenues come from people who show up in the games… that said,
In this century, the Twins have one of the best records in basball. So, they were winning
Here is the problem: No World Series wins = fewer fans. Winning the division is a good thing (and the Twins haven’t done that for a couple of years), but if you don’t win in the postseason it doesn’t matter that much. The Phillies have one of the worst records this century. Do you want to bet that more butts are going to seat in the Citizen park bleachers than the Metrodome next season?
thy98:
Yea, and how old was Cuddy when he signed the extension and for how many years? Your comment is meaningless.
Also, it’s what’s paid to players on the same team. Tex had stats just below ARod’s. He got money about 7M below ARod’s.
Manny’s problem is his personality, so we’ll see who offers what to him. He’s a cancer on a team.
Look, at the end of the day, if the Twins average 3M per season, they’ll be able to compete, at least enought to keep their home-grown stars. So no matter how you bloggers spin things, the bottom line is that the Twins need to know that they’ll consistently draw at least 3 mil season after season. Without this certainty, forget about screaming for the Twins to keep most of their homegrown stars, let alone sign an “impact player.”
Thy98, yes more butts will be in the seats in Philly, because it has a more loyal fan base and not a front-runner, fickle fan base. I know, I was stationed at Marine Barracks Philly NB many years ago and saw a lot of Philly games (still drive down there at least once a year for a game).
Also, the Phils outsell the Twins on food and souvenirs and charge much more per ticket.
Also, it’s what’s paid to players on the same team. Tex had stats just below ARod’s. He got money about 7M below ARod’s.
This doesn’t work…
Look at Punto’s stats and contract and try to fit it in the Twins’ payroll with that logic.
It’s market-driven… For example, last year the Twins’ offered Hunter a $15 mil a year contract. His production was lower than Mauer’s and Morneau’s but that contract would have paid him more than either of them.
The Phils always have good attendance. So do the Mets. They just don’t have good farm systems and don’t scout well. But they draw.
And so what as to the 25% comment. How stupid is that?
Gee, let me figure here: is 25% of tickets, concession, and souvenirs sold to 3 mil plus fans a season a lot more than 25% of the same sold to 2.3 mil fans? Gosh almighty, it is. What wonders are produced by first-grade arithmetic.
Thy98, so there are no intra-team markets? Your reasoning makes no sense.
Philly, because it has a more loyal fan base and not a front-runner, fickle fan base
Then you probably know that the Phillies have been the joke of the town (I live in the area) until this year. Even last year when they won the division, in September and October everyone was all about the Eagles. This year it changes. In Minnesota, the Twins lately are the child that can do no wrong.
Here is an example: Both the Twins and the Vikings entered the last game of the season under the same premise: win and you win the division. The Twins lost, the Vikings won. Do you think that the Minnesota fans think that Childress was more successful than Gardenhire this season? (I’d love to see a Star-Tribune poll for that as a matter of fact)
Also, the Phils outsell the Twins on food and souvenirs and charge much more per ticket.
That’s another point that I think people over look.
If the Twins increase ticket sales to draw income so they can increase payroll they’re cheap and sucking money away, and nobody will trust them to increase payroll when the opportunity arises.
Likewise, if the Twins were to increase payroll, and subsequently increase ticket prices, it would be viewed as a cheapskate move to pass the buck from the increased payroll to the fans.
Do you think that the Minnesota fans think that Childress was more successful than Gardenhire this season?
Gardy overperformed with a younger, inexperienced and cheaper roster. (And came off an offseason in which they LOST key players such as Hunter and Santana)
Childress underperformed with a more veteran and expensive roster. (And came off an offseason in which they GAINED key players such as Berrian and Allen)
You have to take in the whole picture, not just the results.
To put it simply:
If Morneau gets a base hit Saturday against KC with the bases loaded, the Twins make the playoffs.
If Longwell misses that field goal Sunday the Vikings lose and back-in thanks to a tiebreaker.
Only about 25% of a team’s revenue comes from regular tickets.
The rest come from:
Shared non-TV revenue (including proceeds of everything with the MLB logo, luxury taxes and away game revenue sharing)
Shared national TV revenue (FOX and ESPN these days)
Local TV broadcast contracts
Stadium Suites and corporate sponsorships
Thy98:
Look, if your expectation is that if the Twins don’t win a WS it’s a useless season, then you’re delusional. If they consistenly put a winning team on the field and have a good, solid, reasonable chance to win it all fine, but keep in mind that the Yanks have won 26 WS, the Cards 10 and the Yanks won 20 WS between 1921, or 22, or 23 and 1963.
So, get reasonable/real. Your comments are way outta wack. What a child you must be if your position is that if the TWins don’t wind the WS then the season was useless.
And you keep missing the point. Why should the Twins trust the fans when they don’t show up when the Twins win, as they have been this century. If the Twins had drawn 3 mil fans every season after the 2001 season, then today we’d have Santana, maybe Hunter, and maybe an impact free agent.
Signing Nathan, Morneau, Mauer, and Cuddy shows good faith on the part of the TWins. Now it’s the fans turn to show if they’ll return the trust.
Wake up, thy98 and get real; you’re they haven’t won a WS is so unreasonable; at least in three of these last 7 seasons, they had a good shot at getting to the WS.
But I agree that Minnesota businesses need to do more to support the team by buying season tickets, including season super boxes. Of course, with the economy the way it is, that ain’t gonna happen for a few years.
The Twins need more long-term season ticket holders, because that’s the best indicator of fan attendance and allows for better financial planning based upon a more certain estimate of future attendance.
thrylos: There was an article recently about how the Yankees raise all that revenue.
One is their dedicated network (Remember how well that went down here in MN?). The Twins recently moved to their new network to try and drive up revenue from radio broadcasts and look how that was greeted.
The other was the fact they owned their own concession service (Well, shared it with the Cowboys) I believe the Twins had to share concession sales with the Vikes while in the Dome. (OR was that jsut the suites)
To put it simply:
If Morneau gets a base hit Saturday against KC with the bases loaded, the Twins make the playoffs.
We will probably argue about this ad nausaum, but if Gardy doesn’t use Rincon after consecutive failures and if he uses Harris more instead of Buscher in September the Twins would not have to worry about Morneau’s performance…
As far as the over or underperforming goes it is subjective… I had the Twins pegged at 89 wins last off-season (so they underperformed in my mind) Also, one could argue that with bad QBs, a bad right side of O-line and an archaic defensive coverage scheme, the Vikings over performed this season…
It’s all subjective, but the matter is that the Twins were out and the Vikings in.
(btw, it’s not about the money a team spends, it’s how they spend it…)
And your ‘25% of revenues from ticket sales’ is probably way off for the Twins. It’s an average, so it includes Boston, Chicago, NY, LA, SF, and other much larger media markets that draw millions of more viewers and thus, tens of millions more in ad revenues. Geez, buddy, the Red Sox and Yanks own their own TV stations. Advertising by Japanese companies paid for over 1/2 of Matsui’s salary.
But if the Twins had signed him, since the Twins are in a smaller media market with far, far fewer viewers, they wouldn’t have drawn anywhere near the ad revenue paid by Japanese companies to advertise on Yankeee games and at the Stadium. So, wake up.
The above is all the more reason why stadium attendance is so important to a small-market team such as the Twins.
The concession thing is really bad in the dome. All concession money goes to the stadium authority that divides it between the Vikings, Twins and Gophers regardless of what team generated what. That’s why a new stadium will help, but we are talking peanuts here (no pun intended). The situation with the Yankees TV network is not that it is ‘dedicated’ but it is owned by them. Which means that all the ad revenue goes into the Yankees’ pockets (unlike in a dedicated network that pays a team some $ per a contract and pockets the ad revenues)… This is a problem and I seriously expect that in the next CBA conversations, a lot of these type of revenues will be shared among the league teams.
Yes, the ownership of a station is much better than a dedicated station. But if the Twins build a fan base and get better attendance at the stadium and more listeners and viewers for radio and TV, then they’d be able to charge more per minute of advertising.
Yes, the Twins got ripped off on the Dome concessions. I wish that the Twins community fund was used for the Twins.
thrylos: All you’re doing is proving what I’m trying to say. It’s all subjective.
Not to mention that your “Losses by Manager” stat is entirely subjective and has no basis except the assumption that “of course the opposite would’ve worked.”
Jake,
“discussing possibilities is a waste of time.”
So was your birth!
Why doesn’t the twins try to aquire Hanley Ramirez he is cheap and signed through 2014 I know it would take a lot to get him, the redsox tried to make a run at him but it could make sense for both sides maybe a delmon young, nick blackburn brendon harris and brian duesing? maybe also pry a reliever from them also? I dont think they would bite or even if they would listen but the twins should try.
T,
I never created a “Losses by Manager” stat . Falsely accused; this is all you, man
These days there is unfortunately not a single measure to describe manager accountability and the closest to it is the stuff in the manager’s chapter in Bill James’ annual book.
Justin,
Hanley Ramirez is the definition of untouchable… The Marlins have no motivation to trade him
I never created a “Losses by Manager” stat . Falsely accused; this is all you, man
You’re the one (amoung other) who would post a weekly count of games they felt could’ve been won by a different decision. (Losses blamed squarely on Gardy)
I just put a name to it.
Jake/Ken/Jeff: They have pills for your problem…
well on mlbtraderumors they listened to the redsox offer i mean who knows i just think they should make a run at him
Justin says:
December 30th, 2008 at 8:34 am
well on mlbtraderumors they listened to the redsox offer i mean who knows i just think they should make a run at him
Why??? So they (The Red Sox) and the Yankees can run basebal even more like they have been doing lately. I would almost like to change my moniker to Curt Flood ruined baseball
mlbtraderumors now proposing a possible Andruw Jones/Jose Casillo swap between the Dodgers and Mets.
Eeew.
Justin,
Let’s assume that the Mariners might be listening to offers for Ramirez. Do you think that the Twins should trade Span, Liriano, Casilla, Slowey, Hicks and Revere for him? Because that’s probably what is going to take
Joe,
I believe the Twins have only drawn 3M+ in attendance one in their history and that was in 1988.
The new stadium only seats 40k, if the sellout every game they will draw 3.2M. They will do that in 2010 and possibly 2011, then the novelty will wear off and the attendance will drop.
Realistically their attendance goal should be around 2.5M. If they can keep their attendance average above 30k they will be successful.
A Jones/Casillo swap is the equivalent of a Cuddaver/Bill Hall swap. Bad contract/bad production for bad contract/bad production, some upside and fits needs in both teams.
I think Joe is conveniently ignoring some facts:
1. A given player’s salary is governed by many things, but primarily his: time in the league, ability, and the market for similar players throughout the game. The specific salary structure on a given team is far, far down the list of factors. Asserting that signing Wigginton will somehow affect what it will cost the Twins to sign Mauer to an extension is silly. Mauer’s extension (if he signs one) will be driven by what other team’s would offer him if he were a free agent, tempered by Mauer’s desire to get something on paper to protect himself from injury, and/or the possibility he might give the Twins a small ‘home town’ discount. If anything, signing someone such as Wigginton might make Mauer more likely to extend, rather than less, since it would demonstrate ownership’s willingness to try to surround Mauer with better players.
2. The Twins draw fairly decently, and have for years. Not great, but not an embarrassment, and in any case, attendance is already accounted for in the Twins salary structure: see below.
3. The Twins have publicly stated they make approximately 50-52% of overall revenue available for player salaries each year. Since their salary expenditures are down significantly from 2007 (even from 2006), but revenue is up, it’s fair to state they have not been living up to their promise, and have indeed pocketed that extra money instead of invest it in players.
So that “$80M” contribution from the Pohlads is now down to something closer to $40M.
The Twins could have affored to add salary last season, and they could certainly add salary this coming season. Bill Smith has said so repeatedly.
So, to put it mildly, you’re wrong on pretty much every point.
And finally, perhaps you could try to make your point without calling people names.
Sincerely,
“yahoo”
Does anyone know what Dickey’s mph’s are? I just love watching knuckleballer’s at work. They (usually Wakefield) throw that knuckler around 45-50 mph and then surprise the batter next by throwing a lazer like 70 mph fast ball. Stunnning the batter and striking them out a lot of times
r.a. dickey isn’t stunning anybody, pretty sure.
jimmy bee,
Sometime last summer SI had an article and accompanying video about Dickey. As I recall his velocity was about 10 mph faster than the typical knuckleballer. 78 instead of 68. Didn’t get quite the same movement and didn’t protect his fastball as well. The video was great. It had a SI writer in catchers gear trying to catch Dickey. Hilarious. You might be able to search their web sight and find it. With your interest in Dickey, I’m sure you’ll really enjoy it.
jimmy bee,
I was wrong. The video is on ESPN’s web sight.
Paul he I watched the video and his velocity seems a bit up from Wakefields
jimmy bee,
If you watched the one I watched he said he throws it from the high 60’s up to 81 mph. Normally about 10 mph faster than Wakefield. Who he considers the best.
What did you think of the the writer trying to catch him? For some reason seeing a would be jock being flabbergasted by that pitch really tickled my funnybone.
Paul I was loving it. I would try catching a few
How about some Twins updates? How are we coming along with our pursuit of Brandon Lyon? How about we bowl the Marlins over with prospects for Hanley Ramiriz I heard Boston made a pitch at him? Any news on the JJ Hardy front? I still think we blew it not signing Casey Blake.
Is Joe Crede healthy?
Dickey pitched 67% of his pitches last year using the knuckleball, and his average mph was 73. By comparison, Wakefield uses his about 80% of the time, and his knuckler speed has been between 65 and 67 the last few years.
Wake’s FB is about 72-75. Dickey’s is 84-85.
“it has been mathematically shown that the prime years for baseball position players are between 25-29. Cuddyer will be 30 at the beginning of next season; that makes him past his prime.”
That is the average prime, the prime for any one player is not necessarily between 25 and 29 (although I agree that Cuddyer is past his prime).
BTW, Thunder Island, New Year’s Eve, going to be a good time.
Don’t know if anyone’s interested, but with the Twins current starting roster, I’ve got them at about 85-86 wins. Factoring in their (UZR) defense, and using their marcel offensive projections (FIP for pitchers), here are the individual wins above replacement:
1 C Mauer 6.41
2 RF span 4.17
3 CF gomez 2.58
4 1B morneau 2.33
5 SS punto 1.76
6 DH kubel 1.21
7 2B casilla 1.04
8 3B harris/buscher 0.89
9 LF young 0.38
Total wins above replacement for the lineup: 20.8
(10 LF cuddyer 0.85)
For the pitchers,
1 SP liriano 3.5
2 SP baker 3.4
3 SP slowey 2.8
4 SP blackburn 2.5
5 SP perkins 1.4
6 SW bonser/humber 0.4
7 RP nathan 1.6
8 RP breslow 0.4
9 RP crain 0.3
10 RP mijares 0.3
11 RP guerrier 0.1
Total for the pitching staff: 16.8
Replacement level is 48 wins.
48+16.8+20.8=85.6 wins.
Beltre is at least a +10 run defender, conservatively. His marcel pegs him at about average offensively, putting him at about a 3.1 win player. That would be a two-win upgrade over the Buscher/Harris platoon.
Burrell would be about 2.9 wins as a DH, which would be a 1.7 win upgrade over Kubel.
Atkins and Wigginton are both brutal in the field, but their bats make up for it. Atkins is 2.5 wins, a 1.5 win upgrade over Buscher/Harris. Wigginton is 2.2 wins, a little more than a run better than Harris/Buscher.
The going rate for a win is about $5million on the free market.
Financially, Burrell is the only move that makes sense; pay $10million for about 2 wins. However, you wind up with a glut of Cuddyer/Young/Kubel/Span/Burrell for3 spots.
Beltre would help our roster the most, but he would cost $12million plus good (and valuable) prospects for a net gain of about 2 wins; quite expensive.
Wigginton sounds like he will cost at least $7 million, and we’re only getting an extra win for the improvement over the existing platoon, so he’s expensive, too.
AM,
interesting. Thanks for posting this. I think that the Marcel projections are historically a bit too conservative on very young players (and the Twins have 4-5 on them) because they are based strictly on extrapolation of past performance based on an age generated average MLB career performance curve. PECOTA is probably a better projection system trying to base those (and the 2009 forecasts are not published by the BP yet)…
Another point of consideration would be that you probably need to factor the wins above replacement with projected AB% (e.g. Buscher getting 65% of AB at 3B, Harris 25% and Tolbert 10%, Mauer getting 85% of the AB at C and Redmond 15% etc). That will probably drop your win total by 2-3.
Great work
Thrylos, not sure where you got the idea that Rolen, Glaus, or Mora would be available, but I have Rolen and Glaus both down as 3.2 wins, and Mora at about 2 wins. So any of those options would be a nice upgrade over the Buscher/Harris platoon.
The main point I am making is 85-86 wins is at the edge of playoff material. If we can upgrade our lineup by 2-4 wins, we are a serious playoff contender.
The main point I am making is 85-86 wins is at the edge of playoff material. If we can upgrade our lineup by 2-4 wins, we are a serious playoff contender.
Agreed.
And the things that stick out like a sore thumb in your numbers up there is 3B and Perkins’ spot on the rotation.
Mora has been available for a while. Rolen and Glaus might be available because Toronto and St. Louis are really hurting financially…
So this year our Twins improvements were LNP and Dickey. Where as the Yankees got Sabathia, Burnett& Tex. It seems a little unbalanced
jimmy,
can’t just go Yankees vs Twins… Many teams have been cutting payroll
Shawn in Binghamton who do most people in Binghamton root for. The Metropolitan’s or the Yank’s
Where as the Yankees got Sabathia, Burnett& Tex. It seems a little unbalanced
Well, Burnett would have probably been an #4 starter in the Twins next year. The Twins have Morneau at 1B and there is no way that Texeira would want to DH. Sabathia would have been an improvement but it is just crazy money.
Thrylos–
I used 85% for all of the players. For the pitchers, I used the following IP:
Baker 180
Liriano 160
Slowey 170
Blackburn 170
Perkins 130
Bonser/Humber 100
I also specifically used marcel because it had lower projections. The Twins hitters overachieved in 2008 (well-documented RISP, plus most of them had better BABIP than expected), so even if some younger players improve, there will be some regression.
That makes sense. Even if someone pitches 10-20 innings more or less the WAR will change only by small decimals. It’s more of an art than a science but it is an analysis that needs to be done at several intervals by every front office… and here is the multi-million dollar question:
do you think that the Twins’ front office, manager and coaching stuff think this way?
Stephon Marbury is coming back to the Wolves?????
Thrylos–
I usually think the answer is no. However, in any organization, decisions an be made or unmade at many levels. I’m guessing that the Twins have people looking at the numbers these ways, but it seems clear that those number crunchers don’t have the biggest influence.
The Twins also seem to value internal options strongly over external options. There is certainly something to be said for that; Minnesota nice and a team of hired mercenaries don’t fit together that well. Staying loyal to the players (even the mediocre ones) who have come up through the organization does.
Bill Smith seems to have made a departure from his predecessor, making bold moves to go for a big player like Delmon Young. But the philosophy of filling a roster with above average players in their pre-arb years seems to be pretty consistent from the previous GM to the current GM.
It hasn’t been mentioned here yet, but
DeRosa was traded to the Indians
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/2008-12-31-indians-cubs-trade_N.htm
3 mediocre to slightly above average pitching prospects.
So there’s another option DEAD.
[…] we start to overwork them. And signing Dickey to a minor league deal isn’t going to hurt anyone (although LEN3 may disagree). Hopefully there will be some more positive news coming your way next […]
