It’s arbitration season. Can you feel the excitement?
Posted on January 12th, 2009 – 10:21 PMBy La Velle
Two Twins players are eligible for arbitration, outfielder-DH Jason Kubel and righthander Matt Guerrier. One of them could get a two-year contract, the other will hope to avoid going to arbitration.
It’s not hard to figure out the player the Twins are interested in signing for more than one year. It’s Kubel, who’s coming off of career highs in homers (20) RBI (78), hits (126) and walks (47). He began to take hold of the DH role last season and is a candidate for a breakout season.
He avoided arbitration last season by signing a $1.3 million contract and stands to get a nice bump in salary for 2009. Players and teams began filing arbitration numbers on Jan. 5 (Kubel hasn’t filed yet) and have until Thursday. Figures are officially exchanged on Monday.
The Twins are interested in signing Kubel to a two-year deal that would take care of his final two years of arbitration. Kubel confirmed on Monday that the Twins have approached his agent on the subject.
“If it happens, I hope it happens quick,” Kubel said by phone from his home near San Diego.
It makes sense. There’s nothing wrong with cost certainty. The Twins already have $50 million committed to Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Joe Nathan, Michael Cuddyer and Nick Punto in 2010 and likely will be locked into contract negotiations with Mauer by then. Trying to get Kubel locked up now is a no-brainer.
As for Guerrier, he’s coming off of a poor season and would be better served to try to improve his numbers for arbitration next year. The Twins only want to sign him to a one-year deal anyway.
224 Responses to "It’s arbitration season. Can you feel the excitement?"
Thanks for the update, La Velle!
Good to see the Twins looking at locking up another contributor into the new stadium. Kubel stabilized the DH spot in 2008, something the Twins have been missing for quite a while.
I should add that if the Twins lock up Kubel this season, they should focus on extending Mauer NOW so they have next season to sort through the numerous arb-eligible guys next year.
Thanks a lot Lavelle. I’m not too worried about payroll, since revenues should increase substantially when Target Field opens.
Yes…the Winter Caravan with Billy Smith was in Duluth Tonight…Boy Did he get Grilled on not Signing Anybody
This should also give an idea what the Twins front office has in front of them. They have a very good young team that they are trying to keep together. They have some young talented kids looking at some nice raises in the near future.
The salary is low now, but they are smart enough to see in the near future. This is a big reason why it is hard to bring in a big bat to help this lineup. Also a big reason why giving that extra year to a Blake may not make sense.
Bad decision. Jason Kubel should be a prime piece of trade bait for the Twins. He did relatively little to stabilize the DH position and despite a slight jump in power numbers, is still a player who will likely hit in the .260 range for the duration of his career. Call him the Pierre Marc-Bouchard of the Twins organization. As it stands, the Twins have a surplus of outfielders and a shortage of infielders. The Twins won’t trade Cuddyer and even if they tried, his contract would be a big turn off. Delmon Young, not Jason Kubel, is likely to be the breakout star of 2009. Kubel is the guy who should be moved while he still has appreciable trade value.
He hit .270 the ast 2 years so I don’t see how he should be expected to hit .260.
Not to mention 20 hrs. When’s the last time we had a DH hit that many?
All but Morneau are signed for more then next 2 years. The Twins are way under budget fot next year. That leaves the opening of the new stadium for the last years of the contracts of Mauer, Nathan, Cuddyer and Punto. Granted they have pitchers that will be arb eligible. However pitching on the farm is the Twins greatest asset. I am tired of the Twins always projecting the future costs and not focusing on winning on the here and now.
Chris, I understand your perspective but don’t share it. He in fact did provide relative stability, with power and average, but was weaker against lefties for sure. He is more valuable to the Twins than what Billy Smith could get in return for him, and he’ll continue to be relatively cheap. Another case where we don’t really have a big problem, so why fix it by screwing it up?
Kubel is the guy to keep. Guerrier was beaten up pretty badly last year and should not be signed for more than a one year deal. He lost his control all of a sudden and never got it back, which to me sounds like lurking injury after a long stretch of work. I’m just sort of assuming that he’ll be following Neshek off to rehab by mid-May. (I’m not hoping for this, by the way, but middle relievers who get worked that hard break down. Matt looked broken at the end of last year and hasn’t done anything to get better. I’m not hopeful.)
Here’s hoping that Kubel fulfills all the promise they’ve seen in him for years. No doubt he’s got skills. Bill James projects he will hit .282 in 2009. Hope he’s right (and wrong about almost all the other Twins).
Good idea to sign Kubel now. If he has a monster 2009, he’ll be ridiculously expensive in 2010. Still hoping they’ll go after a bat, but even if they don’t, they won 88 games last year with the youngest team in baseball. Even though some players might regress a little bit, I still believe that as a team they will continue to improve.
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I’m wondering how anyone of Young, Kubel or Gomez will get a chance to break out. With the musical chairs currently in place someone is likely to sit out more than they have or need to because Cuddaver won’t be.
The “there’s enough at bats” line sounds good in January but I’m doubting that Gardy will do enough to make it happen when the baseballs are actually flying.
Someone of these 5 will not be happy and pose a risk to the precious chemistry.
Perhaps BS will use one of them in a trade. Perhaps I’ll score 30 against the Lakers tonight.
BTW, has the idea of Peavey leaving the Padres died down? Seems like a trade for Peavey should have happened by now. Personally I wouldn’t mind a Peavey/Kouz trade for the Twins, but I couldn’t see our guys doing anything like that again after the trade with the Rays.
Janet-you’re preaching to the choir!
T- I agree on trying to extend Mauer’s contract NOW. I don’t want to see another fumble, a la Santana or Hunter.
what a joke this is they dodnt need to sign kubel they need to trade him oh that’s right nobody wants hime casue he cant play the oufield and he is a slob the twins f—– arround with him to many years and now we are going to be stuck with him for 2 more years bill sith you suck make a decent move you fat slob
La Velle -
Any indications that the Twins are at least exploring what it would take to get Michael Young?
I dont see how we have screw with Kubel. We have been waiting for him to turn out those numbers he put up last year. I for one only think he will get better. The DH numbers he put up last year were good. Werent they?
I’m wondering how anyone of Young, Kubel or Gomez will get a chance to break out.
If the Twins sign Kubel, it will be as a primary DH. They have four OFs and Jason Pridie in the minors, Kubel should never have to see the field.
Signing Kubel to a reasonable 2 year contract that runs through his remaining arbitration years would not preclude the Twins from trading him if the right opportunity is presented. In fact, it could make him more attractive to someone else. They would have the same cost certainty that the Twins are looking for.
Not saying they should or shouldn’t… just that the contract issue is totally separate.
Can’t ignore the 20 home runs. Like T said, when’s the last time we had a DH with that many? Which is one more reason I’m puzzled why we keep passing up these third baseman with 20 plus homers. Twenty homers in a Twins uniform seems to be comparable to 40 or so National League home runs, but who cares?
T: you don’t think Cuddy will steal ABs from Kubel also? I do.
Kubel was equally productive statisticially as Punto, plus he has higher slugging %, HR, RBI, etc. This being said, Punto will make MORE over 2 years than Kubel, in all likelyhood.
Sounds like a good deal to keep Kubel, doesn’t it?
Next: Extension for Baby Jesus
Then: Buy out arb years for Baker and Liriano
C’mon B.Smith–be PROACTIVE and keep your young nucleus in tact!!!
Frankly, I hope they continue to pass on any 3B unless: 1) he’s a better than average defender 2) is likely to hit .280+ and hit 25-30 HRs, and 3) doesn’t require us to give up Liriano, Baker, or Slowey. That pretty much narrows it down to…hmm, I wonder if this is Billy Smith’s dilemna.
I’m thinking Kubel for the primary DH will be a good thing and don’t really think the Twins have screwed him at all. They have stuck with him after he totally messed up his knee and have run him out there as much as they could with his knees not being 100%. I think we saw a glimpse of what he can be if he
is at 100% and I don’t think a 2 year contract would be bad for him or the Twins. I sure like the looks of 20 HR’s from our DH spot - once again, how many did Rondell, Tyner, Ford, etc. get while they platooned the position? Just keep him from the outfield - his routes are worse than DY and he doesn’t have much of an arm, IMO.
Tony, good to hear BS got grilled on the Twins caravan for not signing anyone. Any more details to report? This has become the most anemic worthless off season, especially when the team has glaring needs and money to spend.
T: you don’t think Cuddy will steal ABs from Kubel also? I do.
If the Twins sign Kubel, they want him for their DH. Cuddy apparently is the starting RF. The two paths shouldn’t cross under normal circumstances.
If anybody may steal ABs from Kubel, it’s Young. But I have the feeling you’ll be seeing him sharing time with Cuddy in the OF.
Of course, that’s assuming that by attempting to sign Kubel, the Twins aren’t hinting that they’ve come up with a solution for the OF.
Any more details to report?
Oh…lots. After John Doe from Coon Rapids hurled his beer bottle at Smith from across a crowded assembly hall, Smith confessed that he was in fact negotiating to aquire Jake Peavy, and that Young may be dealt as part of a package for Beltre.
I agree with Kevin.
Whether or not you agree with signing Kubel, what do you think is a reasonable contract for him?
He made $1.3M last year. He’ll probably ask for $3-4 for arbitration, the Twins will offer $2-2.5.
Would a 2yr/$7M be enough to get it done or would they have to match/beat Punto’s 2/$8.5?
I don’t see what the big deal is about having to sign someone that is either on his way to being washed up or already there. The players we have now are just fine and a lot less money. Look at Yankees and Red Sox and they spend all this money and still miss the World Series on a regular basis
SweetOne: You’ll probably have to give Kubel at least 3MM to get him to consider passing on arbitration.
I don’t think Kubel will be passing Punto as the 5th highest paid Twin though.
I mean, is Billy Smith and co. really planning on going in to the season without any outside additions to the bullpen, the sole reason in my eyes why this club and its fans were denied October baseball.
I’m starting to unfortunately accept that he is serious about going into camp with “adequate” Harris/Buescher (my god) but why so damn picky about bringing in a legit, experienced option for back innings for the pen?
Sure, I love the upside of Mijares. But isn’t he a question mark still? I know there are still guys out there, but a lot of the options they could’ve got for an affordable price are now off the table.
It’s tough to discover that guys like Affeldt, Howry, Nelson, and Saito are guaranteed a combined $9.1 million for 2009 (footnote Gleeman.com).
I mean, no amount of excuses by the front office and subsidaries will persuade me that sitting on the proverbial hands on this front is any short of appalling.
Kubel isn’t a free agent, so “signing” him to a two year deal doesn’t really change anything. He’s already under club control for two more years.
Comparing Punto’s contract to Kubel’s or JJ Hardy’s is like comparing apples to oranges.
Punto was a Free Agent with the leverage to sign with another team.
Kubel and Hardy are team property with no such leverage.
They have the leverage of arbitation rights, but they can’t jack up their salaries by taking competing offers from other teams.
That is similar to Punto’s PREVIOUS contract situation.
That is why Punto’s contract is now much bigger than that of Kubel and Hardy despite their higher production and actual value.
I think GMs in general are finally figuring out that young players still under team control are often just as productive (or more so) than players on their downward arcs who have come to feel entitled to $10mm annual salaries.
The current CBA was designed to reward veteran players and require young players to “pay their dues” before getting big paydays. What’s happened, finally, is that the average veterans are competing with talented young players for roster spots… and losing, rather than accept an “insulting” salary cut.
Teams are proving you CAN win with young players and as more teams adopt that model, the number of organizations with the budget and inclination to sign established veterans to big-money contracts is dwindling. There are simply too many aging vets on the market compared to roster spots available on the Yankees, RedSox, Mets, Cubs and Angels.
JC: It also seems like young players these days seem far more willing to sign long term contracts for relatively “light” amounts of money.
T,
So would a 2yr/$7M be enough ($2.5M-3M for 2009, $4-4.5M for 2010)? Or is that too much?
T,
I think that young players are more willing to sign long term contracts early are because:
1. Gives them stability and eliminates the stress of working on a year by year basis.
2. Protects them in the event of serious injury (guaranteed money).
Sure they probably would earn more on a year by year basis, but if they have a career ending injury in year 2 or 3 they come out way ahead.
Kubel hit .272 but he still didn’t get a full season’s worth of at bats. Moreover, as someone else pointed out, the guy cannot hit lefties to save his life and that is a huge problem considering some of the best opposing pitchers in the AL Central are lefties. The possibility of trading him should absolutely be left open. Gomez and Delmon Young should be retained at all cost.
I agree, T. Could be that the memory of riding the bus from Lansing to Burlington and trying to save meal money to supplement their salaries is still fresh enough in their memories that they don’t assume the money will always be there. Security is still more important to them than trying to wring every dollar out of an organization than they can.
I’m as impatient for Smith to improve the team as anyone… but when you really think about it, would anyone on this board be willing to bet their house that Saito (for example) would contribute so much more to the bullpen than any of the young pitchers supposedly on the verge of being major league ready?
Just something to ponder.
Chris,
Kubel’s inability to hit LHP’s varies.
There were periods last year when he ripped LHP’s.
I am guessing that he would make an (inside-outside) adjustment, and then the pitchers would re-adjust to his adjustment.
JC, T,
I am sure, that after living hand-to-mouth, eating 14-meals-per-week at McDonalds while in the minors, a young player would jump at his first chance to make real money.
I wonder if they are working on an option to buy out one of Kubel’s FA years. How about 2/8, option for $5 for the third, 3/13.5 total, with a $0.5 buyout?
I did the calcs, and Kubel is worth about $5.5m on the free market. Getting for $4.5/year would be a minor cost savings, plus I would consider him to have some upside left.
sane: I think Kubel’s struggles against lefties came from his limited opportunities to hit against lefties.
I seem to recall Monroe getting the lions share of those ABs early in the season.
Kubel’s an interesting case.
The usual Twins MO has been to sign guys in his situation (2 years before FA) to extensions that extend through at least the first year of free agency (and more often 2 FA years). Waiting until they only have one year of arbitration eligibility remaining (or even until hitting free agency) is pretty risky if they really want to keep him around. With just one year left, they may just roll the dice and hope they have a good walk-away year and then… walk away.
If they just sign Kubel to 2 years, to me it’s saying, “we like you, we want you around for a couple more years, but we really aren’t convinced that we see you as a long term member of our organization.”
I find it odd that someone would argue we should deal Kubel because he can’t hit lefties, but keep Young (who hasn’t hit well in 2 years yet). I understand the belief in his potential, but I’m a believer in actual production (it’s not like Kubel is old and wearing down here).
Yeah, I agree with that last paragraph JimC. It’s a lukewarm thing. I think it is Delmon/Span/Gomez insurance at this point.
Speaking of Monroe, T… I see he signed a minor league contract with a spring training invite with the Pirates. Apparently he becomes this year’s token former Twin joining Pittsburg, replacing Dougie Baseball.
Wow, what a difference a year makes. Everyone around here panned the Cuddyer contract last year at the time (which was, in my opinion, part of a PR effort to cover for the trade of Santana). I’m not sure what the value of the contract was/is; I think it’s between $6-8million per year. This off-season, Pat Burrell signs a contract for 2/16. Unbelievable. Here are the past four year’s of value, in millions, for Burrell and Cuddyer–courtesy of fangraphs, which factors in Burrell’s terrible defense, and Cuddyer’s bad defense:
Cuddyer
05: $6.2 million in performance value
06: $9.1 mm
07: $6.7 mm
08: -$1.1 mm
Burrell
05: $14.0 mm
06: $ 8.8 mm
07: $ 7.8 mm
08: $12.6 mm
On the bright side, here’s hoping Cuddyer gets his health back and gets back to producing between $6-$9 million worth of on-field value.
“Yes…the Winter Caravan with Billy Smith was in Duluth Tonight…Boy Did he get Grilled on not Signing Anybody.”
How did he get grilled at all? I was there… One person asked if we were looking at Joe Crede (which Bill said we definitely were). One person asked what we were gonna do to improve since we missed out on a few people (to which Smith answered that they were basically happy with what we had, but would look at any deal that would improve our club).
Maybe it was after the Q&A section because I left before the autograph session, but that was all I saw.
I don’t understand this fascination with Joe Crede. If the Twins sign him–no doubt he would have 4 HRs 22 RBIs and a BA of .237 in June when we release him. Everyone here would be screaming that the Twins did it again ala Batista and Lamb.
The only name I see here frequently that I think would be a good addition would be Hardy– but to get him would cost DY, or Span plus a pitcher or two including at least one of Slowey, Blackburn, or Perkins . Are we willing to do that?
As much as I enjoyed watching Span and Casilla last year— I don’t think that their numbers will be as good next year. Neither one was that successful in the minor leagues.
If we end up with all our outfielders– my guess is that Span and Gomez will be the platoon participants, until Cuddyer goes on the DL.
I can’t see what the hurry is,the season doesn’t start until almost April.The demands of teams will change before the season opener.It’s been intimated on this blog,that lack of movement,doesn’t give some you something to vent about.I hate to break it to some of you,BS does not operate to please some of you little darlings,until of course until you start paying his salary!
Here we go again…One legitimate bat away from being a serious threat to go deep into the playoffs… And yet the team made over $32 million in profit last year ($24 million of that was revenue sharing which is meant to help poorer teams compete). Crede is not the answer. Neither was Cirillo, Nevin, Everett, Lamb, Ponson, Boone, White, etc etc. Spend some REAL money signing a REAL bat, please.
Casilla’s numbers were good for only about a month. He ended up the season with a .707 OPS which is lower than Harris’ .721… And the general perception has been that Casilla had a better year than Harris last season. Wrong.
Actually Geno, I wonder how much money BS would make if the fans stopped showing up to any games at all.
Wouldn’t a nice winter suprise be something like Ben Sheets or Pedro Martinez?
Geno - We do pay his salary. Oh yeah, we also pay for the extra $32 million in profit last year. Wake up.
Spend some REAL money signing a REAL bat, please.
That real bat being…..?
but keep Young (who hasn’t hit well in 2 years yet).
Young hit .288 and .290 over the last two years.
He may not have hit for power, but he certainly isn’t “not hitting”
“but keep Young (who hasn’t hit well in 2 years yet).”
mike get a new line of bs.
kubel career 162 gm ave stats; 19 hr, 78 rbi, .268/.326/.445, 105 ops at age 26
young 12 hr, 81 rbi, .292/.326/.405, 102 ops at age 22.
where the heck was kubel when he was 22?
mike what about gomez??? what has he hit the last 2 yrs?
“We do pay his salary.”
Customers are necessary for a business to survive, but customers would never tell me how to run MY business.
I can go broke on my own ideas.
Investors, maybe.
Customers, NEVER!
mike,
You say that you are tired of discussing Delmon, but apparently your conditioning has improved.
I say give Brendan Harris a real shot at being the regular third baseman. A free agent 3B might add 10-15 home runs, but that will still put the Twins at the bottom in team HRs.
Span and Cassila will be the big disappointments this year. Everyone else should either improve or meet last year’s performances. Except Punto, who can’t hit in odd-numbered years.
Span and Cassila will be the big disappointments this year.
They’ll likely only be “disappointments” in the sense that they won’t have the same monster seasons they had last year.
But I don’t expect Span and Casilla to go the whole season hitting 1/2.
Hmm: mlbtraderumors.com
That official said Dunn’s current asking price is four years, $56MM ($14MM per). Crasnick says the Braves and Nationals are more focused on trades.
What’s everybody’s take? Is that reasonable?
I guess I meant “big” disappointments according to many people’s expectations of them, which are too high in my opinion. I especially don’t see Casilla hitting no. 2. Hopefully, as you have said, Mauer can move up to 2 if someone emerges as a legit no. 3 hitter (like DY).
I wonder if the NATs would part with Zimmerman
First prediction for 2009!
Worst expected record (as is) 84/85 wins
Most optimistic record (as is) 95/97 wins
Expected record (as is) 91 wins +/- 2 wins
This is my analysis with standing pat. It WILL NOT change much due to additional signings, it could change dramatically should Mauer or Morneau or both go down to injuries in Spring training.
I use this analysis to invest in total wins of 2009. IF Vegas puts the number under 84 wins I will be all over it (the over), if it is at 85/86 I might dabble, above that I pass. IF, something I DO NOT expect the number is 97/98 wins I will be heavy on under.
This analysis has less to do with statistics, and much more to do with organizations and history (trends). From a previous thread, Chemistry if you will.
I see the components as follows:
Mauer & Morneau … similar to 2008
Punto … slight regression from 2008
Young & Gomez … 2008 was their floor, modest to significant improvement for either or both.
Span … most difficult to judge, I’m cautiously predicting modest regression, yet expecting similar or modest improvement
Casilla … expect modest+ regression.
Cuddyer … Hard to do less than 2008, so some improvement.
Kubel … Modest improvement
Harris … Modest improvement
Buscher … Similar
Baker & Blackburn … Similar to modest improvement.
Liriano & Slowey … modest improvement.
Perkins … modest regression
Bull-pen … modest+ improvement
This year, including any signings is likely to be consolidation, EXCEPT for Mauer/Morneau injuries.
Does this mean the Twins will win the World Series? Who knows, roll the dice after the playoff participants are decided.
Regards,
ps: I will keep a copy of this post, to either crow or eat crow in 5/6 months time.
I agree Walter, I think everyone is expecting alot form two guys who have had one decent year. I do like both guys but it is hard not to atleast think about that. We have had a lot of one year wonders in this town.
I think Span will continue to be great in the field regardless of his hitting. Casilla on the other hand, I could see his fielding suffer if he is really struggling at the plate.
Casilla could tank or Punto could get hurt (I think we have seen that it doesn’t matter how awful he hits or fields - he will still be in the game) and we will really be up the creek with our infield.
AG,
To get Zimmerman will take Mauer/Morneau + a starter.
The Nat’s made him (Zimmerman) the face of the franchise, then went into total rebuild mode. Then the owners refused to pay rent on the new stadium.
Their PR so bad, that it makes the continual complaints about Bill Smith seem like adoration in comparison.
Regards,
the Dragon–
I’ve already posted my projection of 85-86 wins for the current roster. I think that my estimation of the bullpen may be low; I’m not sure how to accurately rate them. I was surprised to see how much Nathan’s contributions were rated at, for example.
The Twins are in a great position with a lot of good, pre-arb guys making up their rotation and much or their starting line-up. One or two valuable additions (via FA or trade) would make a significant difference for this team, in my opinion.
It was a weak moment. Sorry.
$14MM per for Dunn. That’s on the high side, given the recent signings and transactions. I’d gladly do $10MM (which is probably 5-6MM more than Kubel will be making in the next two years, but if Kubel is good, he’ll shoot to $10MM per after arbitration years are over, if he’s good).
so, the question is, if Kubel would cost 8-10MM per year after his arb years (assuming they don’t lock him in), then is dunn worth the extra money for the next two years, and the small bump those two year?
Dragon, also be sure to submit your estimates to the Twins FO, so that they can either fire or extend Gardy’s contract based on his performance comparred to your expectations.
I think that every so many years the Twins will have a window of opportunity to “go for it,” based on the pieces they have in place. This is the year in my mind.
We need to take a chance on Joe Crede or Michael Young and try to win this thing by trading some youth or simply spending some money. We cannot just get comfortable playing competitive baseball year in year out.
Bill Smith needs to take a lesson from his colleague Billy Beane in Oakland.
T,
Gardy’s a chump. Twins in full playoff’s if he doesn’t start Liriano against KC that last week.
Regards, 
Wow that is a lot for Zim. Thanks Dragon.
Gardy’s the best in the business by far based on what he has to work with.
Dragon, you seem to be a self appointed baseball genius.
IMHO this team is one impact player, and good health for our main cogs, away from effectively competing with the elite teams in the sport. Delmon might be that guy. Other than him I only see Hardy, Young or Beltre as filling that role. Anything short of these guys is just luck of the draw. We might just as well go with what we got. Maybe we can catch lightning in a bottle again like 87 or 91.
Oh yea. I’m still pissed we didn’t persue Furcal. A great fit for cheap.
Bill Smith needs to take a lesson from his colleague Billy Beane in Oakland.
Oakland hasn’t won a World Series since 1989..and hasn’t been back to one in almost as long.
“Bill Smith needs to take a lesson from his colleague Billy Beane in Oakland.”
yes, because oakland has been so successful in “going for it” of late…
Hardy settled with the Brewers for $4.65 mil yesterday, so expect Kubel’s deal to be closer to 2 years $6 mil.
I guess I was referring to the way he handles his personal, every year he’s trying to make his club better. Never settle for status quo was the quote I heard from the Phillies new GM lastnight on the MLB Network.
“Bill Smith needs to take a lesson from his colleague Billy Beane in Oakland.”
Oakland hasn’t won a World Series since 1989..and hasn’t been back to one in almost as long.
Apparently Bill Smith took that lesson.
I think Dunn can look for 56/4 all he wants, but I’ll be shocked if he gets it. There are only a handful of teams with that kind of money available and I don’t see any of them looking for a LH power hitter with no defensive skills.
Anyone else think that maybe it would be worth talking to the Rangers about Andrus, rather than Young? Obviously, they’re stuck with 2 SS and I don’t see any way they get any value out of a Young trade, given his contract and no-trade clause. Andrus is not a power hitter, I know… but it sounds like he’s got skills and I sure wouldn’t mind having a “SS of the future”.
The Twins are doing exactly what one poster suggested, which is keeping dollars free for the young players we have coming out of their arbitration years in the next 2-3 seasons. They could go out and sign Dunn, Crede, and some relief pitcher this year, and then plummet to 70 wins in 2011 once all the young talent left.
As far as going out and getting a bat, how do we know that’s not exactly what they’re doing with Kubel? Before he messed up his knee in the 2004 AFL, he was regarded as a better hitting prospect than either Mauer OR Morneau. Say he continues to improve this year with the stability of the full-time DH position, and improves to a .280/25 HR/95 RBI clip. Would anyone have a problem with those numbers?
I’m also sure the Twins are open to listening to any and all trades (I’m sure Bill Smith would do a Mauer for Wright and Reyes trade in a heartbeat), the problem is that other teams are trying to win too, so they’re not gonna just give us advantageous terms. That’s why we’re not doing any trades, because every team wants young pitching, or major-league ready talent. The Twins have some of both of those, but its not necessarily expendable.
Finally, the most ridiculous idea on here, the great plan to get Peavy AND Kouzmanoff. To do that would take Span, Baker, Slowey, Gomez or DY, plus prospects, and will never happen.
I’m lukewarm on the Kubel thing. We’re not talking Cuddyer-type money and Kubel now offers more production (Cuddyer may rebound, but even if he does, I seriously doubt he will outperform Kubel’s offensive production in ‘09). I think what Kubel did in ‘07 and ‘08 is pretty much what Kubel will be: a good 6 or 7 hole hitter but not a difference-maker. I really hope I’m wrong about that, incidentally. The downside is that every dollar spent to keep the club intact means fewer dollars available to improve the club from outside the organization, particularly with Mr. No in charge.
It appears the Twins have decided they will go with guys they brought up through the system and only guys they brought up through the system unless they can find an aging and unproductive vet (they probably don’t need to be listed yet again) to spend on in a token effort to improve.
This does not mean I think free agency is the alpha and omega of building a club. Far from it. You only have to look at the Yankees in recent years to see that. What I am saying is that standing pat rarely works (if ever). Boston had 7 players on the ‘07 championship squad that were on the ‘04 squad. The Twins had 7 as well on the ‘91 club that were on the ‘87 club. Florida may have only had Renteria on the ‘03 championship team left over from the ‘97 team. The point is, trying to improve is good, standing back and hoping the wins come to you is not good.
“Boston had 7 players on the ‘07 championship squad that were on the ‘04 squad.”
Yeah, but the result of trying to improve was missing the playoffs entirely in 2005. The White Sox tried to improve after winning the Series in 2005, and missed the playoffs entirely in 2006. The Cardinals did the same after 2006, and haven’t been back since. The 2003 Marlins blew everything up, and haven’t made the playoffs since, the 2002 Angels missed the playoffs the next year as well. The 2001 Diamondbacks also missed the playoffs the next year
In fact, the only teams that made the playoffs the year after winning everything this decade are the 2001 Yankees, and the 2008 Red Sox. Change for change’s sake is not always a good thing, sometimes you just have to stand pat with what you have, especially if it proved good enough to win with in the first place.
T,
No need to forward my thoughts to FO.
Currently I see the team as Mauer & Morneau, maybe Nathan and 22/23 interchangable parts. Baker, Slowey & Young have the potential to move-up to the Mauer/Morneau category quickly, and IF that happens, then the loss of any one of them goes from devistating to inconvenient.
Has the potential to be similar to the Washington Capitals in Hockey, who have 5/6 excellent players, then 6/7 thru 30 are roughly interchangable.
Similarity, BOTH teams are VERY YOUNG.
Regards,
…sometimes you just have to stand pat with what you have, especially if it proved good enough to win with in the first place.
Are you talking about the Twins? Because unless my memory fails, the Twins didn’t win anything last year.
On last year’s non-pitching roster only Mauer, Morneau, Span, Tolbert and Kubel were drafted by the Twins. Am I forgetting someone?
Are you talking about the Twins? Because unless my memory fails, the Twins didn’t win anything last year.
Neither did 29 other teams in the league. Or however many aren’t named the Phillies.
WJ: I believe the Twins also drafted Cuddyer.
Here’s something you may find interesting. I recall 4 players having this, or something close to it, said about them in batting practice. “The ball just sounds different coming off their bat.”
Ted Williams, Mantle, Pujols and Kubel.
Cuddyer. Oh, how I wish to forget him.
“Lars says:January 13th, 2009 at 1:13 pm Dragon, you seem to be a self appointed baseball genius.’
Lars,
No Genius, although your kind thoughts are appreciated.
I just happen to put my money where my mouth is.
Regards,
Actually, Cuddyer might have another good season left in him. Make it this year. At least let him get hot for a month at a time when we really need a boost.
A lot of chatter to catch up with:
On Kubel: Good idea to sign him to two years, I feel he’ll make improvements as long as he continues to get AB’s at DH. He’s the 5th outfielder if necessary - maybe get him in a game a week.
Outfielders: Start of season starters, Young, Span and Cuddyer with Pirdie on the bench and Gomez in the minors to continue working on strike zone issues. Cuddyer may become trade bait if either Gomez shows improvements or someone goes down.
Michael Young: Forget it, FO won’t pay the remaining $62 million on his contract!
JJ Hardy: Depends on what Brewers do the rest of the off-season. If Brewers can’t find sufficient starters to start the season I say the Twins go back with a Blackburn or Perkins + AAA pitcher + Harris combo and see if Brewers bite. Then move Punto to 3B.
Chief,
the point was that the Twins don’t need to hand out ill-advised deals to players of questionable value, or make hasty, shotgun trades, simply to change. I also disagree with the assessment that the Twins didn’t win anything. They won 88 games, which was at least 6 more than the most optimistic pre-season projection I remember. I am satisfied to only exceed expectation every year, but not win in October? No, I’m not. But I also understand that no one wins every year. This club is clearly on an upward trajectory, and I for one am excited to see how high the apogee is.
What I don’t understand…you declare Cuddyer will start and you sign Kubel to a 2-year extension. Kubel can only DH. What’s left for Delmon?
Buzzard,
I like the idea of Hardy for Blackburn or Perkins + Harris and prospects (seeing as how Blackburn and Perkins are interchangeable in many trade proposals, should we condense their name? Maybe we can refer to them collectively as Perkburn, which will signify one or the other). My only worry is that given reports of how adamantly against trading Hardy the Brewers are, Hardy might not be available until June or July, when there could be other teams with better offers out there.
Twins Buzzard:
Do really think Gomez will start the season in Rochester? It’s not a bad idea, but if he did, and he did learn the strike zone, how do the Twins bring him back up as a starter?
Dan G, are you arguing the REd Sox made changes just for the fun of making changes, and weren’t trying to improve their team? You lost me there somewhere.
cuddeyer has had 1 good year. I’m not convinced that the other years aren’t what we should expect, and the good one was the aberration (when compared to other RFers).
Michael Young, no thanks.
Paul, Tom kelly said that about Delmon last year.
I’m not sure what signing Kubel for 2 years does. Signing him for 3 or 4 years does something. The only advantage of the two year deal is locking in next year’s salary.
Buzzard: I don’t like the cost of improving SS if it comes at a downgrade of 3B.
With Harris and Buscher…Punto should not see play time at 3B. Heck, with Buscher, Punto shouldn’t see play time at 3B.
mwm: I don’t see Dan G mentioning the Red Sox anywhere.
T: I’d gladly take hardy at SS, if the price was Punto at 3B for one more year (assuming you are all correct about Valencia). Hardy + Punto is better than Punto +Buscher/Harris.
1:37
I did mention the BoSox, and the point was that after they won the World Series, they decided they needed to go out and get better, so they let Cabrera go and got Renteria, and let Pedro go as well (I believe there were other moves as well, I just don’t remember far enough back, or care to look it up right now). The point is that THEY HAD JUST WON THE SERIES, but because they bought into the whole “you always have to be working to get better” line, they ended up getting worse. Would they have won again in 2005 if they made zero changes? I don’t know, and no one ever will. But spending money on expensive “upgrades” sure didn’t work out for them.
Dan G, I didn’t say change for the sake of change. I said change for the sake of improving. And so what if the Red Sox missed the playoffs in ‘05? They have 2, count ‘em, 2, rings this decade. I’d trade one first round exit for a ring any day. Missing the playoffs in ‘05 is completely irrelevant. Just out of curiosity, who has ever stood pat and then won the next year? I can’t think of any club that has done that, which doesn’t mean it didn’t happen. I know the Twins tried it in ‘88 and regressed.
Walter– you ask -what’s left for Delmon?
I predict Gardy will start with a revolving door– Young, Span and Gomez manning left and center. Cuddyer will take right–regardless on how well he performs.
Even though Young is by his admission a slow starter– he will get most of the time in left field because Span, more so than Gomez will struggle to second year pressures. Gomez and Span will platoon center.
So your outfield by May will be Young, Span/Gomez and Cuddyer. Sometime in May or June, when Guddyer goes on the DL, the out field will be Young, Gomez and Span.
The question looming for the 2009 Twins is who spends the most time on the DL— Cuddyer or Punto??
Dan G,
you are missing the following point:
the Red Sox could have not kept the 2004 team intact simply because their free agents chose to sign with other teams.
It happens. These days it is almost impossible to keep a team 100% intact when there are free agents involved.
boneyard,
the RedSox made the playoffs in 2005 as a wild card
“Just out of curiosity, who has ever stood pat and then won the next year?”
New York Yankees, 1999 and 2000. There might be more examples if more teams actually did stand pat as well, rather than try to improve and fall short. As far as trading 2 rings for a first round exit, of course anyone would make that trade. However, the determining factor between winning 2 rings and exiting in the first round is not whether or not you make changes, its whether or not you make smart changes, which for the Red Sox, had a lot to do with outspending everyone except the Yankees.
My overall point is that this Twins team absolutely should make a change IF it is the right one. Right now, there don’t appear to be any free agents or trades out there that are worth the price, so I am glad the Twins aren’t jumping at bad deals and contracts, because they think they “have to make a change”
Also, it should be noted that if the Twins had tried to make a change in 2002 or 2003 to get over the top, it very well could’ve cost them Mauer, Santana or Morneau. Not saying it would have, just that sometimes you have to be careful about what you’re giving up.
Dragon,
I liked your assessment and pretty much agree with it. Several posters have said that Casilla has just one good month and won’t be #2 the whole year. I never thought the kid would be a player in 2007 but he sure changed my mind before he had the hand injury. He was playing as well as Pedroia before he got hurt. He had a great winter and I think he will be one of our best assets this year. If Span comes close to 2008 production I will be happy but I will be disappointed if Casilla doesn’t exceed all his 08 numbers. For the poster that said his numbers weren’t that great in the minors keep in mind that Morneaus werent all that great either. I expect all 22 year olds to improve if they have the right work ethic. I am also hoping for more than modest improvement from Liriano considering he has had half year rest and should be with us for an entire year.
RB,
I don’t know how much they can mix and match in the outfield. Gardy said Span-Gomez-Cuddyer would be his starting outfield. Youngsters like Span and Gomez need to play everyday and I think that’s how the Twins will work it. Young as 4th outfielder would probably spell Cuddyer the most, Span occasionally, plus whenever Span spells Gomez in center. Young’s potential and stature require him to play almost everyday somewhere.
mike wants wins, you are right
Hardy is about 4.3 wins above replacement. Punto is +1.7 wins at SS, and about half a run worse at 3B, which is half a win better than the Buscher/Harris platoon at 3B. All told, Hardy would upgrade our infield by about 3 wins.
That ranks even better than signing Sheets, Hudson, or Cabrera. Of course, it would also cost us some players. But he’s cheaper than those players since he isn’t a free agent yet.
My overall point is that this Twins team absolutely should make a change IF it is the right one.
I think that you are contradicting yourself a bit… With the Red Sox & Yankees argument you are saying that if a wining team stays intact it has higher chances to win next season.
You are arguing for the Twins to stay intact; however, based on your premise a non-winning team (like the Twins) if it stays intact will have a higher chance to be a non-winning team next season…
Right now, there don’t appear to be any free agents or trades out there that are worth the price
3B:
Ty Wigginton
Melvin Mora
SP:
Pedro Martinez
Braden Looper
Mark Prior
What is Boof’s current weight?
You don’t see teams that stand pat and then win the next year because you don’t see teams that stand pat, period. So I will point out that every year 30 teams make changes but 29 of them fall short. If the Twins were made up of 35 year olds or had little talent I would agree with you all but the fact is they were in rebuilding year, had a ton of injuries, lost a coin flip and still had more wins than the 87 Twins. I am not against a trade but the notion that they can’t have a magical year with what they have is just wrong. You don’t know what it takes to win the championship this year. That’s not an insult. Nobody does. Maybe Dragon knows the Vegas odds this time last year of the Phillies meeting and beating the Rays in 2008. I don’t recall a single “expert” predicting either one of them would be there.
Are Mora, Pedro and Prior FA? I know Pedro is, and has rejected $7mm from one anonymous AL team.
thrylos98,
Calling the Twins a “non-winning team” is the same as describing all non-Pulitzer winning bloggers as losers.
How are all you guys doing on that scale?
Wigginton, Mora, P. Martinez, Looper, Prior.
None flip my minnow.
Prior is too. And Mora has been on the trade block for a few years now.
sid,
if you are happy with the Twins being an also-run team, be happy with it… some of us would like them to win this millennium.
thrylos,
If you are happy with not winning a Pulitzer, fine.
Just realize that the Twins are just as success-less as you are.
Dantes–
Morneau’s weren’t all that bad in the minors– Actually Span’s and Casilla’s minor league numbers are better than I had been led to believe.
I am sure the formatting will go haywire when I submit this!
here is Justin’s line for 6 seasons:
G AB R H 2b 3b HR RBI
491 1867 308 579 122 11 87 365
BA OBP SLG OPS
.310 .375 .527 .902
Denard Span 6 years
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI
549 2095 320 601 67 26 10 192
BA OBP SLG OPS
.287 .355 .358 .713
Alexi Casilla 5 years
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI
397 1486 258 437 53 17 7 103
BA OBP SLG OPS
.294 .369 .367 .736
How much would Prior go for? A minor league contract? We could right the wrong of the #1 draft pick the year we mistakenly took Mauer #1 to save money!
Right now, there don’t appear to be any free agents or trades out there that are worth the price
I’d add, thrylos, that I always find it amusing when posters wait until many of the attractive options are gone, and then come back with “but there’s nothing to spend the money on!”
Teams don’t stand pat because they want to get better or cheaper. Many teams achieve their goal of getting cheaper (see, e.g., Marlins, Florida). And while no one is infallible, I am confident in my prediction that the Twins will not win the Wrold series this year with this crew (they are not, repeat not, going to hit over .300 w/ RISP 2 years in a row). Throw Wiggington and Hardy on the left side of the infield and Jaun Cruz for the ‘pen I wouldn’t be nearly so sure in that prediction. There are other considerations aside from winning this year, but the Twins haven’t thought of winning NOW in quite a while; they’re always rebuilding for some future that never quite gets here.
Oh, and Thry, thanks for the correction on the Red Sox. Must’ve been ‘06 when Manny took his September sabbatical and they missed the playoffs.
key words:
“worth the price”
How much would Prior go for? A minor league contract?
probably as much as R.A. Dickey and methinks that it might be a slightly better signing 
But he needs to change his delivery (the subject has been beaten to death; google: “Prior inverted W”) to keep his shoulder healthy
The Twins are and have been a winning team… I dont’ think many would argue that.
Mora is a 10/5 guy for the O’s, so he’d have the right to decline any trade.
Prior, Looper and Pedro aren’t terribly exciting at this point in their careers.
Wigginton doesn’t do a lot for me, and I’m not sure he would do a lot for the Twins.
Free agency is rarely the way to go.
USACHIEF: there are also those people that say the Twins’ payroll is low because all their players are young. Well, that’s because they usually trade or let walk those players that are expensive at some point. They don’t keep more than 3-5 at a time that are in their prime earning years. It’s a self fulfilling prophecy.
“How much would Prior go for? A minor league contract?
probably as much as R.A. Dickey and methinks that it might be a slightly better signing ”
Based on what??? And secondly, I thought I read that Prior resigned with San Diego.
Yup, the Red Sox were idiots this decade for trading for guys in their prime or signing FAs to fill holes. Stupid Red Sox and their using of players that aren’t cheap and from their system.
Rick, good catch to my casual reference. I have a hard time finding player’s minor league stats so I went from memory. I do recall Justin came up to the bigs once or twice without being too memorable. My point is still that very young players who appear to be improving should not be pigeonholed based on statistics while in the developmental stage. Casilla had a good winter in 2007, a good year in 2008 and now a good winter in 2008. That should count more than the stats 2 or 3 years ago.
Seth,
Prior is a free agent. He does have higher upside than Dickey (no need to argue that, I hope). He is younger (28) and (unlike Dickey) he has plus plus stuff. His problem is being healthy. His shoulder issues come from his delivery. If that is changed (and does not need to change that much on his throwing arm to affect his stuff; he needs to get his glove shoulder lower and elbow down when in mid delivery). It’s worth taking a chance.
Seth– Prior is not listed on the Padres active roster.
Dantes — minor league stats can be found on baseball-reference.com There is a link near the player’s biography.
True, the Twins have been a winning team, but one without the FO resolve to get a ring.
“They don’t keep more than 3-5 at a time that are in their prime earning years.”
That is true for many players, but they kept Santana around for 7, they have had Mauer around for six already and have at least two more years with him. Morneau signed long term. Cuddyer signed long-term. Nathan signed long-term. They’re looking to keep Kubel for 6. that’s a pretty good track record of keeping the guys that they want beyond that time frame.
Wigginton is an instant upgrade over the options at 3rd and will be a nice grab for whoever gets him at the reasonable deal he will get at this point of the offseason. At least I’m intrigued by what he can do offensively. I already know the “adequate” option and it ain’t doing a whole lot for me. And, of course, another year of watching Brian Buescher try and throw a baseball is going to be stressful.
Anywhoo, it will be interesting to see which team lands Wiggy and for how much/how many years. And if it’s a team in the American League, bank on him hitting 2-3 HRs against the Twins this season. Book it.
I thought Prior didn’t want to come to Minnesota– or was that just a public relations ploy to justify drafting Mauer number one?
I am glad we drafted Mauer over Prior!
I would stay as far away as possible from Mark Prior unless we trade away at least two of our starters.
“one without the FO resolve to get a ring.”
How so? They have put them in the playoffs five of the last 7 or 8 years. That’s all a front office can do. The playoffs are a crap shoot.
I wasn’t contradicting myself saying winning teams should stand pat, but the Twins should make the right trade if it comes along. To sum up:
The projected 2009 Twins should be better than the 2008 Twins without signing a FA or making a trade. That being said, if they can get Hardy or Kouzmanoff for Perkburn and prospects, they should do it. The reason being that they are young, relatively inexpensive, and even if they don’t sign an extension with us, they’ll still have value in 2 years, when we can trade them for something. You probably can’t say that about any of the players you deemed “worth it” Thrylos.
Furthermore, I am not talking about any of those players only as concerns their stats, but also their cost in terms of dollars, i.e. if we sign Wiggington for 3 years, does that mean we can’t afford one of Span, Slowey, Blackuburn, Casilla, et al.?
Mora is 36, costs 8 million, and had a statistically abberant year last year. I would think .275/.340/.410 with 15 homers and 80 RBI is what you can expect this year from him. I’m not so sure you get that from the Buscher/Harris combo for 1/8 the price. Also, Mora does have a no-trade clause, and only has one more year on the deal. If you’re gonna get a rent-a-player at third, might as well do Beltre.
and thrylos, sure… Prior has more upside, but I’m as big a prospect guy as anyone, but even I’d have to say, enough is enough.
(Casilla) was playing as well as Pedroia before he got hurt.
Casilla went on the DL on Jul 29th. His May/Jun/Jul splits:
.340/.417/.520
.304/.330/.412
.308/.333/.385
Pedroia’s May/Jun/Jul splits:
.314/.358/.452
.345/.408/.510
.325/.379/.435
Wanna rethink that statement?
keep in mind that Morneaus werent all that great either
In 1867 minor league ABs, Morneau hit .310/.378/.527. He had three partial seasons with an OPS over 1000. His last playing time in the minors came in ‘04…when he hit .306/.377/615 in almost 300 ABs.
Honestly…do you just pull stuff out of your arse, or are you intentionally trying to decieve us?
wouldn’t signing Prior be akin to signing Ponson, Ortiz and Hernandez?
Another “just maybe he’ll be good” kind of guy?
Where does it say that Brian Buscher is incapable of improving his defense? Isn’t it even remotely possible that perhaps he spent the off-season working on footwork and throwing accuracy?
SethSpeaks,
I’m with you. If you’re good enough to make the playoffs, you’re good enough to win the whole thing. Several wild card teams have proven this. The Twins just have not performed well in the playoffs. That is NOT because of the one guy they didn’t add at the deadline. It’s because of the poor peformance of the nine guys that got them there. You say the Twins don’t have the right players to go all the way? Santana was a prime example of that. Superb in the playoff push. Mediocre in the playoffs. Should we have gotten rid of Santana? He was the definitive “only good enough to get in” type player.
“Prior is a free agent. If that is changed (and does not need to change that much on his throwing arm to affect his stuff; he needs to get his glove shoulder lower and elbow down when in mid delivery). It’s worth taking a chance.”
Rick Anderson better watch his back….
Seth, I wasn’t clear enough.
I wasn’t talking about the years, but how many players they have on their roster that are in their prime (i.e., expensive) years. So, they have Nathan, Mauer and Morneau (and I guess Punto) right now. That’s 4.
When they had Santana and Hunter, they had M&M on the “cheap”. They don’t usually have more than 5 roster spots taken by expensive guys, because they usually let them walk or deal them.
Walter, I don’t agree. I think that they could have gone farther earlier this decade had they added a DH or 3B. YMMV.
if dominance in the regular season is what matters in the playoffs, wouldn’t the Patriots have gone 19-0 that year? Would the 4-seed Cardinals or the 6-seed Eagles or Ravens still be alive. I always thought that football was less of a crapshoot than baseball, and I still believe that.
As for Santana, he did fine in the playoffs, but he’s going against another team’s #1 pitcher in Game 1. Greg Maddux’s playoff record wasn’t all that great either, but his ERA and other numbers were just as good.
mike wants wins,
“think that they could have gone farther earlier this decade had they added a DH or 3B”
Only if that DH or 3B was guaranteed not to choke in the playoffs like the rest of the team.
Everyone starts the playoffs with a record of 0-0. The Twins may have finished the regular season with better records, but I am not sure it would have changed anything in the post-season.
Dominance is predictive, not sufficient.
Couple of 2009 Predictions:
If Twins don’t “fix” 3B/BP: They’ll fall short of the playoffs, and the blame will be on the FO for not getting that “One-Bat” that would’ve solved everything.
If Twins “fix” 3B/BP: They’ll fall short in the playoffs when one of the common contributors (such as Mauer/Morneau) gets into a funk.
There are no guarantees, as Seth points out above. However, adding a better 3B would increase the odds, wouldn’t they?
I’d argue the Twins would’ve fared better in the postseason if they would’ve gotten over this obsession of playing at Yankee Stadium with both hands around their throats.
However, adding a better 3B would increase the odds, wouldn’t they?
A “better” player increases the odds. But that’s only if they actually perform “better” once they get here.
Case in point, Mike Lamb.
Dropping J.C. Romero from the playoff roster in 2003 would have helped.
Adding a better player helps the odds if you don’t have to give up an “even better” player to get him.
“find it odd that someone would argue we should deal Kubel because he can’t hit lefties, but keep Young (who hasn’t hit well in 2 years yet). I understand the belief in his potential, but I’m a believer in actual production (it’s not like Kubel is old and wearing down here).”
Youngs 2009 line
.290 .336 .405 .741 compared to Kubels
.272 .335 .471 .805 Yup Young sucks. Give me a break. Jim Rice at 23:
.282 .315 .482 .797 Jim Rice didn’t hit 7th either. No I’m not saying Young will be elected to the HOF in his last year of eligibilty. I am saying he is a decent hitter for age 23.
MLB Network reported lastnight that the Rangers have been talking to three teams about Michael Young, one being the Twins. Any idea how many years he has left on his contract at 60M? The Twins could in theory trade for Young, see where they are at come July 31 and move him again if they don’t feel they can compete for the division. He might be a hot commodity by the trade deadline.
[…] Neal reports that Jason Kubel has been in negotiations with Minnesota on a two year extension. Kubel, the […]
.288 and .290 the last 2 yrs for Young. Cuddyer has never hit that well. His best year was .284 in 2006. And he will start over DY?
a quote from Brad Childress, “a roster should always be a work in progress of everchanging moveable parts (personal) with the ultimate goal of finding the right combination to bring success to your franchise.”
This seems to correlate well with what many of us consider to be the fun part of MLB baseball’s hot stove season. I wish my favorite team would give us something to talk about or get excited about prior to Spring Training.
Michael Young has 5 years left on his current contract… he’s 32 years old and according to Aaron Gleeman’s blog (www.AaronGleeman.com) today,
“During the past four seasons his OPS has declined from .898 to .815 to .784 to .741, and those marks are also hugely inflated by Texas’ extremely hitter-friendly ballpark. Young has hit just .279/.323/.404 on the road during his career. For comparison, Brendan Harris is a career .269/.330/.408 hitter. Beyond that, Young winning the Gold Glove last year was totally undeserved, as he’s consistently rated among the league’s worst defensive shortstops in most advanced metrics…”
“…Twins fans should be praying that Bill Smith has zero interest in Young.”
“When they had Santana and Hunter, they had M&M on the “cheap”. They don’t usually have more than 5 roster spots taken by expensive guys, because they usually let them walk or deal them.”
Ummmm, 70% of teams don’t have more than 5 “expensive” guys at a time, because they simply can’t afford it. If the Twins had say, 7 guys making Mauer, Morneau, Nathan money, that would be 70 million right there, which would put them at 20th in terms of payroll, with 18 players yet to go. Name me one team outside of the Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, Cubs, and Dodgers that has more than 5 elite, highly-paid players on its roster.
“…Twins fans should be praying that Bill Smith has zero interest in Young.”
I’ll save my prayers for something necessary.
No prayer is required for Bill Smith to have zero interest in Young.
For the “Action Junkies”
It would have been interesting for the Twins to sign ALL the available free agents. Have a 350-500 mil payroll. Even hire your dream manager.
Their chances of winning the World Series? Better then I expect current teams odds will be, Probably a/the favorite, BUT I’d put my money elsewhere.
The supposed best (however that is defined) team each year DOES NOT always win the World Series, probably less than 50% of the time.
If would be worth spending the Pohlad’s money JUST to hear the explanations.
Regards,
“a quote from Brad Childress, “a roster should always be a work in progress of everchanging moveable parts (personal) with the ultimate goal of finding the right combination to bring success to your franchise.””
First off, I’ll give you a pass on consulting Chilly for “wisdom,” and point something out. If the goal is the right combination of players on the roster to bring success, that would mean there is a theoretical combination, which, by virtue of it being the right combination, would mean that no further change would be needed, as the combination for success will have been achieved.
Seth, with all due respect; we can always find something wrong with a player. The bottom line is that Mr. Young would be a huge upgrade to the lineup and bring character and leadership to the clubhouse. We need to bring in good, elite baseball players and that is what Michael Young is, a bonifide all-star shortstop. Punto or Young, I’ll take Young in a heartbeat.
“Famous Quotations of Chairman Chilly”
Please send me a copy autographed by the author.
Here are 5 storylines I personally find very interesting, and should be to any Twins fan as well…
1. Can Joe win his second straight batting title, and 3rd in 4 years?
2. Will Delmon Young develop power, and hit 20+ homers?
3. What will Francisco Liriano do with a full year of health?
4. How good will the Twins young rotation be?
5. Which player starting the year in the minors will make the leap, and play a significant role for the Twins in September?
based on that OPS decline of Michael Young’s, is he truly an elite player? Or is he just a big name?
Sure, I’d take him over Punto, but not for an extra $52 million.
the Dragon–read this great Onion piece from 2003, “Yankees Ensure 2003 Pennant By Signing Every Player In Baseball”
Seth…Well, I guess that’s a good question. Although, 5 years at 60M doesn’t seem that outrageous in comparison to the money flying around right now for an all-star SS. However, I again think he could be traded again if need be at the deadline. It’s all a crapshoot but I just think some effort needs to be made to improve the team or at the very least add some more depth. The Twins were mentioned lastnight on the MLB Network as the only team that has not made a move this offseason.
Seth, who might you suggest as a player the Twins should try to acquire? I’m just curious. Some have mentioned JJ Hardy, but can you imagine the contract he will command if he puts up 25hr, 85-100 RBI’s. This will make Michael Young look like a bargain. This is why I believe Bill Smith has a sincere interest in Young.
I’m not sold on Young, myself, but I have to believe that anyone Texas finds to deal with will require the Rangers to eat a fair-sized portion of that salary.
At what price (in $ and trade) does he become worthwhile? That’s the question… and I can’t imagine even 2 people in Twins blogdom agreeing with one another on the answer.
I’ve been told that the Brewers don’t really want to trade Hardy, so if they do, it’ll be because the Twins provide a package that probably starts with Liriano, adds in Revere, and probably 2-3 more high-level top pitching prospects.
Who’s king of thishere blogdom, anyway?
And don’t say Tender Loving Craig!
These are the players teams are asking for in return for the likes of a JJ Hardy or Beltre: Slowey, Span, Liriano, Revere. If the Twins are willing to part with one or two of these players, they will find a trading partner. I’m sorry folks but Blackburn and Perkins are not highly regarded yet.
“The bottom line is that Mr. Young would be a huge upgrade to the lineup and bring character and leadership to the clubhouse.”
Lars, this is the same guy who is currently complaning and requesting a trade from the org. who signed him for 60+ million — a richly undeserved contract considering he is no longer an option as a SS and is being moved to third base. How is he showing leadership and character (two traits that you are tossing around as if you have spent a year in the Rangers clubhouse) I prefer the character the young 23 year old supposed hot head is showing on our club as his starting job has been taken away: not one complaint. Let’s hope Delmon takes exception to this and has a break out year. That’s something that’s a lot more possible than Young suddenly reviving his career - and it costs about 50 mil less.
If Hardy provided $25million in on-field value last year, and has 09 and 10 in arb years left, why WOULD they want to trade him for less than a blog’s ransom, anyway?
wow, you read my mind Seth, great baseball minds think alike.
T
The Twins actually returned home from Yankee stadium each of those years with 1-1 splits,I believe thay won the first game in NY both years.They “choked” if you want to call it that,at the dome.I prefer to think they just got beat by a better team.
I’d give up my entire blogdom for a decent starting 3B.
well, you all have great valid comments, thanks for the discussion. I think we can all agree that we want what’s best for the Twins. I just hope they make an “attempt” to fix the 3b/bp issues before opening day.
Dan, that could be true. I’ve not looked that closely at why the Twins’ payroll is so low compared to everyone else’s. Is it that everyone else has more expensive players? Is it that they have 1-2 players at really high salaries? Is it that they have many players in that mid-range, which the Twins don’t have hardly any right now (Kubel and Punto)?
I’m not sure, so you could be right.
I’ll be pretty bummed if they deal for a SS that has declined several years in a row, gets huge dollars (we could sign Dunn for that money and give up no players) and refuses to move to 3B because his feelings are hurt….
According to Cot’s, Young is owed a total of $80M from 2009-2013 ($16M per year) with $15M of that deferred (leaving a salary of $13M per year, with $3M per year deferred).
That’s an awful lot of money for a 32 year old who has declined in production in each of the last four years, and who might not be able to play shortstop at the end of that contract.
Why wouldn’t the Twins have just signed Furcal instead?
Maybe, if you could dump Cuddyer’s salary ($16.25M owed) on Texas and get them to add another $20M in cash it MIGHT be worth the gamble that Young can turn his career around. But that would still leave the Twins with a net investment in Young of $44.75M (a little under $6M per year, plus $15M in deferred money.)
I won’t be disappointed if the Twins pass on Young.
How many $10 million players did the Rays have in 2008?
RE: likelihood of winning in all
There are 8 teams that make the postseason. Given complete parity, each post-season team should have a 12% of winning in all. Realistically, I’m sure that there’s a range of chances for the post-season teams, ranging from 8% chance of winning it all for the weak teams, to 20% for the good teams.
So, for the strongest teams, you have a 20% chance of winnining it all once you make the playoffs.
What are your chances of making the playoffs?
I’d guess that that Yankees have at least a 50% of making the playoffs. Maybe even 75% chance, although they have two tough division rivals. But max of 75%. I don’t think any team has more than a 75% chance of making the playoffs, do they?
75% of 20% is 15%.
So, even the strongest team doesn’t have more than a 15% chance of winning the WS going into the season.
Do people buy this line of reasoning?
Pass on Young!
On paper, the Twins do not have a problem at 3b. Harris and Buscher should/could supply ample offense and defense. The goal of the off-season for the front office was to substancially improve the position, which they haven’t been able to find a match.
Not sure Seth. How about the Angels and Red Sox and Mets and Cubs and Phillies? How about the Yankees (when they made the playoffs 13 straight years). Not having expensive players is no more guarantee of doing well than is having expensive players. It is about having the right combination of players.
And, I’ll note, that the Rays have not stood still, but signed at least two FAs, to fill some of their gaps (the fools, they didn’t stand still).
Kubel is only a DH no way he should get more then Punto.
Harris and Buscher should/could supply ample offense and defense.
Buscher could supply ample defense? Only if by “ample” you mean the number of errors and missed balls…
USAF, I already apologized for the Morneau comment and explained it. I don’t know where you got your stats for Pedroia but his line in May was .260, .295, .374
Through July Pedroia hit .306 with 48 RBI.
Casilla hit .313 with 39 RBI in nearly half as many games, so no, I will stick with my statement that Casilla was very comparable to Pedroia until Casilla got hurt.
Kubel is about 20% of a baseball player. He can’t play in the field, he can’t run the bases, he can’t hit LHP. The team needs a second player and maybe a third and a fourth to cover all his deficiencies. Too bad they did not non-tender him.
AM,
these numbers could be pretty close at the beginning of a season (actually I have not seen any predictive model give any team more than 70% chance at the beginning of a season); however, they change as a season progresses. When a team reaches the post season there are several additional factors that have various weights and can change the probability of winning it all by a lot: winning percentage during the season, home field advantage determination and head to head record with potential post season opponents. That’s why the ‘98 Yankees entered the post season with an about .60 probability to win it all (and they did).
A one year contract with Kubel is fine with me.
thylos98, ample I mean compared to league average and the other FA options that were/are available (Blake, Wigginton, Crede).
JA,
Buscher: .390 SLG, .938 FP, .774 ZR
Wigginton: .526 SLG, .969 FP, .791 ZR
The Twins should also pass on Matty Guerrier!
Young could be a Twin if he’d play 3B. That’s going to be the hardest part for the Ranger’s, is finding a team that wants to let this guy play SS.Reminds me of Soriano wanting to play infield. Ha, what a joke. What is wrong with these guys who want to play a position in spite of their team’s best interest. Something tells me Young would play where ever they wanted him to if they had a chance a being a winning team. Kind of like Randy moss playing when he feels like it for the Vikes, but being a total team player in New England. Even ego-centric primadonna millionaire athletes respect successful coaches and orgs.
Craig Counsell played in 88 games at 3B for the Brewers over the last 2 years. He is a free agent and may sign for one year and sign relatively cheap. He’s old, but he’s a very good player and in good shape. He was excellent in the field, and he’s a fine hitter. Counsell is a real professional guy. I think Gardy would like him.
Counsell would be an upgrade over Buscher and Harris. The Twins could just dump Harris in spring. Buscher is okay in a pinch hitting role. Tolbert could backup all 3 infield spots, platooning a little at 3B.
Counsell would upgrade the team and cost very little. He is my choice if the Twins sign a free agent. MUCH BETTER than Crede or Wiggleham.
Seth, the playoffs are, to some extent, a crapshoot, but you can’t say the Twins have been upset in any of their playoff series this decade. They haven’t been the best team. The FO has known the club needs more punch in this middle of the order. They have refused (yes, made a conscious decision not to go get said bat) to do so. So, yes, they lack resolve.
In 172 chances over the last two years, Craig Counsell has made only one error at 3B.
Improving the fielding is exactly what the need to do. Last season the Twins scored more than enough runs. Though the bullpen faltered too often, the pitching was there. The fielding really let the Twins down. They were especially bad at 3B and in LF.
Improved fielding will improve the pitching and help the Twins win. Sometimes a team has to give up a little hitting for the glove, especially at a vital spot like the hot corner. Adding Counsell would do just that.
I think Counsells hitting would improve on the turf. He does maintain a high OBP, and by being more aggressive, could improve his batting average. He could be a great interim 3B. A perfect fit for the Twins.
Your comment about Kuebel was not very tender loving,Craig.Give the guy a break,he has a crippled knee that matches your crippled mind(???).
GENO, GENO, GENO. The only approach is to simply ignore everything (and I do mean everything) Craig says. don’t take the bait, whatever it is.
GENO,
Kubel has become a good hitter against RHP. I like him. I just don’t pretend he is something he isn’t. I know the guy would be better if he hadn’t hurt his knee, but he did hurt it, and know he is only a marginal player.
thylos98, please don’t recite senseless stats. Can you tell me what Wigginton’s career line looked like when he was 27? Harris’ current line .269/.330/.408, with a .973 fielding line, all he needs is chance to play everyday. At 26, (’07 with Tampa) he received his most work as a big leaguer and subsequently hit .286/.343/.434. Wigginton is what Brendan Harris will become.
Bonehead,
It is not my fault that you and others cannot keep up with the tender one, and have such feelings of inadequacy. I do acknowledge your feelings as valid. I accept you as you are, and with all your limitations.
JA,
I have no problem with Harris having 90% of the starts at 3B. The problem is that if they go with a platoon Buscher (being lefty) will get 75% of the starts. That’s where that part of the equation breaks down.
btw, scratch Prior. DePodesta in his blog says that the Padres re-signed him today.
thrylos98,
A Harris-Buscher platoon does not HAVE TO be a strict L-R platoon.
Harris can get all the at-bats, except for those against a RHP with a lights-out slider, or a difficult arm angle for RH batters to hit.
Harris could end up with 80+% of the at-bats.
Its not that revolutionary.
I am having trouble understand the following paradox:
Several posters often say that getting to the playoffs is nothing, in fact a failure, if the Twins don’t win the World Series.
Then I see today, that spending 3X+ just about every other team is virtuous because the Yankees made the playoffs 13 times straight. Cool, EXCEPT that the Yankees HAVE NOT won the World Series in their last 6 times in the playoffs and did not even make the playoffs in 2008.
It appears if you spend obscene amounts of money for payroll and don’t win the World Series, that is a pattern to be copied, yet if you spend less and don’t win the World Series your a failure.
Can’t make this stuff up.
Regards,
“It appears if you spend obscene amounts of money for payroll and don’t win the World Series, that is a pattern to be copied, yet if you spend less and don’t win the World Series your a failure.”
Amazing, but true.
Whatever the Yankees do is right.
Whatever the Twins do is wrong.
Regardless of how they did it.
Regardless of how it turns out.
Its called a UNIVERSAL TRUTH!
[…] KubelWhen reports surfaced last week that the Twins were on the verge of inking Jason Kubel to a two-year contract […]
