Tuesday notes
Posted on January 13th, 2009 – 5:16 PMBy La Velle
I worked the phones today as much as possible but found nothing earth-shattering. I couldn’t spend as much time making calls as I wanted to because we spent part of today looking head to February and spring training.
Just had a brain-storming session with my editors about covering TwinsFest, the first couple weeks of spring training and even threw out ideas for our baseball section. I’m just happy we’re able to publish a baseball preview section this year. I’m sure you’ll like it!
One thing we grumbled about: Our list of story ideas doesn’t include profiles of new players in camp because the Twins haven’t added anyone this offseason!!
It’s been the running theme this offseason, and I’m guessing it will be the No. 1 topic during the Twins’ annual winter caravan. Bill Smith was grilled about roster moves in Duluth last night, and it looks like Ron Gardenhire faced the same line of questioning here.
With nothing really juicy to report, here are some random notes:
Michael Young: Here’s one person’s belief that the Twins are a good match for Michael Young. Young’s name first came up during the winter meetings but the feeling I got from the Twins was that his contract was a hindrance. Since then, there have been stories published in which scouts were noted as saying Young no longer has the range to play short and doesn’t have the power to play third. I still get the feeling the Twins aren’t interested.
Relief pitchers: I mentioned last week that the Twins kicked around names like Takashi Saito and Guillermo Mota as relief options. Both are now off the market, as Saito has signed an incentive-laden deal with Boston and Mota is back with the Dodgers. Mota had a real nice ERA after the All-Star break last year. I’ve heard Saito could earn as much as $15 million if he’s healthy, pitches well and convinces the Sawx to pick up a 2010 option. I can see where $15 million over two years would be too much for the Twins for someone who by all accounts needed Tommy John surgery but declined to have it.
Rickey Henderson: I’m glad he’s in the Hall. At first, I wondered how 28 voters could leave him off the ballot. Then I read Jayson Stark and learned that Henderson received a higher percentage of votes than DiMaggio, Williams, Musial, Mantle and Mays. The numbers of voters in the 1960’s and 1970’s might have been fewer but, geez. After being part of the Hall of Fame voting for several years, I am convinced more than ever that we are a strange group of people.
Fort Myers Orioles?: Lee County has agreed to build the Red Sox a new spring training facility and now are trying to lure a team to move into City of Palms Park in a few years.
And Baltimore could be the team.
Heard the Orioles checked out Vero Beach but didn’t like it. Heard they spoke with officials in Sarasota but couldn’t get a deal similar to what the city was willing to offer the Red Sox. For those of you who come down to spring training, this is worth watching. Fort Myers seems clustered enough with two teams - although I need to get down there in four weeks to see how the economy has affected things since we left.
Looking ahead: Still waiting for the Twins to release their spring training roster. Makes me wonder if they are trying to sign someone to a minor league deal with the promise of a camp invite.
I will be out of pocket for most of the day tomorrow. I have to attend an all-day video training session. We’re learning about some new gizmo that will help reporters shoot video. Oh joy! Just kidding. Whatever it takes to keep the Strib going, I’m all for. I BET the Twins announce something tomorrow on the one day I’ll be locked down.
Thursday: I will be at KFAN from 9-12 a.m. to co-host the morning show with Paul Allen. Feel free to call in with Twins/baseball/soccer questions!
187 Responses to "Tuesday notes"
i love the twins, but they just frustrate the living hell out of me, with their layed back approach to fielding this team….funny how everyone is a bit too old, too expensive, not good enough defensively,not good enough for this reason or that reason, ….its amazing that there is something wrong with everyone out there…either bill smith is too picky or is it that he just doesnt want to spend any money???i know which way i am leaning…..come on bill- do us fans some good and give us some good news ….all we need to do is sign one good bat and get a solid relief guy to add to the pen and we are good to go….this shouldve been one of the easiest off seasons as we dont have to rebuild..just tweak….so dont tank….
[…] Twins Insider – […]
according to mlbtrade the orioles are getting a bit serious about wigginton, but dont want to go more than one year….my feeling is that he is the twins best option at 3rd base and smith is an absolute fool to let this guy get away-i am no expert, but sometimes you just get a feeling about a player and what he will do for this team on and off the field..im betting he would be a real winner both ways…the town of minneapolis/st. paul will love him…thats just my guess sitting here in freezing fargo/moorhead…dont let the o”s grab this guy,as then we are down to crede and that seems risky for many reasons, mainly health and the big layoff…….wiggy is the guy….
mj1, we’re not necessarily “down to crede” - at this point the plan is to stick with Harris/Buscher, which is probably better than Crede with a bad back, on FieldTurf. Read USA Today’s capsule on the Twins. I’ll also bet that Billy Smith knows more about baseball than either of us, so calling him an “absolute fool” doesn’t say much about you. How about we revisit Wiggy’s stats around the all-star break and see how they compare to whatever we have at the time?
I saw Eric Gagne’s name mentioned in that link with the Gardy story. Then I threw up. Gagne? Seriously!!??
That’s a great offer Kevin in Dallas. I, for one, am dying to compare stats for Wiggy/Crede and the DYNAMIC Buscher/Harris combo. Apparently, Wiggy is only good with a “short porch” but nobody can tell me the actual distance of his home runs at home. And his defense is at least as good as Buscher’s.
I’m with mj1….Smith would be an absolute fool not to land Wiggy at the price I’m guessing he is going to go for. And if some team overpays for him, then good for Smith. But something tells me Wiggy doesn’t have a whole lot of enticing options at the moment.
Kevin..so ya think Mr B Smith is a pretty smart baseball guy huh….hope youre right on with that…so far he has not shown me a whole lot, but then what the hell do i know…
Michael Young’s defense at 3rd base is a non-issue, as he won’t waive his NTC to go to a team if their going to put him at 3rd.
And considering how he responded to the Rangers asking him to play third…I doubt a team would be smart to spring that one on him after completing a trade.
Why not Gagne? If you can get him for cheap/incentive laden.
This bullpen needs something…It just does. I love the upside of the young guys, but too many question marks. WAaaaaaaaay too many question marks. Why not bring in a guy with some upside at a reduced cost?
somewhere there was a layout of wiggys homeruns and it seemed to me at the time that it was pretty impressive as he hit them to all fields…he was not just a pull hitter….the other thing i like about him is his versatility, as he can spell morneau if need, can fill in at 2nd if need, dh, and i just think he will hit well in the dome-plus i think he is a great teammate type guy, thats what i gather about this character…he will fit in well
Well…I guess I should’ve prefaced my comment with my disgust that the front office has dragged it’s feet with acquiring somebody decent (i.e. Nelson, Affeldt, Howry, etc.)….And now, the Gagne’s of the world are the guys you have too look at in mid-January.
Oh well….Gee gosh golly. Smith and co. are trying their hardest gee golly.
I’m on board with you mj1…I just get that vibe that Wiggy would be a good, fan-favorite kinda Twin. And provide value with right-handed pop. But is he as “adequate” as Buscher and Harris. Those two are just so damn adequate.
theres better talent in the minors than gagne i believe….he seemed to be pretty washed up the last time i saw him…anyone know different?..i would much prefer to see an effort at brandon lyon for one…..
Like I said earlier, Gagne is just one good pharmacist away from a comeback.
The Twins are capable of scoring plenty of runs without HR power. How many home runs a potential third baseman hits should NOT be a factor. It’s about one of the least important things I can think of. To place an inordinate amount of emphasis on this one relatively insignificant statistic is completely silly. It defies a rational thought process. Why dwell on theatrics and emotionalism? One must use reason.
The Twins are capable of scoring plenty of runs without HR power. How many home runs a potential third baseman hits should NOT be a factor. It’s one of the least important things I can think of. To place an inordinate amount of emphasis on this one relatively insignificant statistic is completely silly. It defies a rational thought process. Why dwell on theatrics and emotionalism? One must use reason.
Would it be possible for the Strib to spend more than $37.00 on their systems? Could they please hire a competent person to manage their blog sites, rather than some day labor guy from Employers Overload?
My brother lives next door to a guy who works for the Padres, he says a Delmon Young for Kouzmanoff trade is just waiting Kouz passing a physical. There will be some minor leaguers involved maybe Antonelli (sp?) and Swarzak.
The Pads want to move Headley back to 3B where he belongs. They’re keeping it quiet until he passes the physical.
Sorry to repeat myself, but what I wrote is so good it should really be read twice.
Despite the Twins propensity to avoid major transactions, I am convinced that Michael Young would be a brilliant stroke.
1) Salary is comprehable to Morneau/Mauer.
2) Whereas Young does not wish to play third base, he has indicated a willingness to play either second or short.
3) In light of #2 above, we could reassign Alexi Castillo to short … his traditional role.
4) Punto could either serve in a utility role (appropriate) or packaged for a reliever.
The above transaction would not address third base. However, we may have to wait until 2010 to fully address that matter. On the other hand, since Texas is looking for a third baseman, perhaps we could engage a three-team deal to meet their needs at third base. If so, that would then free Hank Blalock for a one year contract at third base/RH DH until 2010. Please Bill … let’s do it!
slider,
If that’s a factual report, it contains good news and bad news.
The good news is Delmon would be gone. The bad news is the Twins would now have Kouzmanoff.
Since Kouzmanoff can’t field at all, perhaps he could platoon with Kubel at DH.
Punto = Every day SS.
Ask Gardy if you don’t believe me.
I’m encouraged by the Ft Myers article. 1) I think it would be great to have another team in the area during Spring Training and 2) I was encouraged that they found Bill Smith to get a quote… I was afraid maybe he’d been abducted by aliens or something.
La Velle,
I agree that Michael Young could become a fine third baseman for the Twins. He would hit about 5-6 total home runs next year, since the dome with it’s large LF area would be his home field.
As we should all know by now, that would be 5-6 HR more than the Twins need from that position. Have I made that point clear? Perhaps I need to reiterate. I’ll try to restate that fact in a future post.
i hope whomever is in san diego is either very drunk or doing some cheap drugs…..that trade would make no sense at all…just trading rt handed bats….and besides we need delmon…our outfield situation is as good as its been in some time and now is not the time to mess with it…its ok to have an extra starter, or whatever with injuries etc…there can be a nice rotation or however it works best as time goes on..spring training will be interesting but delmon is maybe the next best thing we have to a hitting machine, and i say that cautiously as there are things i question about him, but he does hit for high average and that power is definately there, so im not ready to give up on delmon quite yet, as i see him as more of a dh type player in the end
Padres signed Prior to a minor league deal that will pay him 1 mil if he makes the major league roster out of ST.
Good night, ladies and gentlemen and T.
Gardy made it clear he wanted Young gone in Fargo probably not the right way to do it because it lowered his value. Punto is Gardy’s SS unless he gets injured so no need to trade for another SS. They didn’t sign him to that much money to be a utility guy.
i hope twins fans are beating the hell out of bill smith again tonite, wherever their caravan is…. yet anyone who gets near him needs to keep pounding into him to put something together soon before all decent options are off the table and the twins are forced to make an idiots deal to get the player we need……
Yeah, that Young/Kouz/Swarzak/Antonelli thing is ridiculous… if that would happen, it would be incredibly disappointing.
T,
Refusing to play third could be Young’s way of forcing the trade issue with Texas. Of course, if he did ok a trade to the Twins, and then agree to play 3B, he would come off as a total [expletive].
Yeah. But then, excuse me if I don’t put much stock in a “some guy told my neighbor” rumor.
Agreed bad trade but it makes sense, Smith hasn’t appeared to make any moves to help at 3B and Gardy made it clear he didnt’ want Young. Having Young sit on the bench 5 days a week would be a real problem and certainly de-value him even more. Gardy put Smith in a real bad place with his big mouth!
Well, if it comes down to who I’d want on 3rd based on nicknames - I choose Kooz over Wiggy. Plus, think of the Fan Giveaways! The Kevin Drink Kouzy!
One last note:
In the old days when a man’s wife had a baby, the man would hand out cigars to his buddies and never miss 10 minutes of work. Today, a man is expected to wait on his wife and do everything but breast feed the kid. Otherwise, she thinks she’s being abused
I’m not being critical of Joe C., but I feel sorry for you young guys today. If I was a new poppa, I would hand out some stogies to my buddies, have them buy me a few drinks after work, and when I got home, I’d tell the old lady to keep the kid’s trap shut. Life used to be grand. I’m sorry you young guys never experienced it. My heart goes out to you.
with the plethora of outfielders we have on the roster and the total # of highly regarded outfield prospects in the minors, we should definately be able to deal with some muscle…our present outfield barring cuddy is very young and we have at least 4-6 hot young prospects in revere, hicks, morales, benson and tosoni plus pridie…i would think we could deal away one or two of them along with some arms for just about anything we should need..im ok with dealing from the minors, as i like the makeup of the twins major league roster and dont want to see it traded away without something very heavy in our favor coming back….
our situation is not bad at all if mr smith pulls the right strings….
mj1, Mr. Smith will probably do nothing. He is paralyzed by fear and cheap owners (That’s not a omment on what kind of human being the recently deceased was)just like Mr. Ryan was paralyzed.
Incidentally, I, too, look forward to comparing Wiggington’s numbers to the vaunted platoon of Buscher and Harris. That being said, it remains my hope that Smith’s reported statement that the Twins aren’t interested is a negotiating ploy, but I doubt it.
Huh….This whole Young for Kouz thing got my wheels spinning and I remember seeing this on Nov. 7 on the mlb trade rumors site:
“Baseball Prospectus’ John Perrotto says the Twins are reportedly willing to trade Delmon Young to the Padres for Kevin Kouzmanoff.”
Didn’t think much of it at the time…..mmmmmmmmmmmmmm. Who knows.
Hopefully Bill Smith’s fatass eats himself to death.
GO TO HELL SMITH
LaVelle… sorry to shamelessly self-promote, but I will be talking with the guy that I think will be the Twins 3B starting in 2010. 9:00 central time at http://www.BlogTalkRadio.com/SethSpeaks.
Bill Smith,
Please do the Young for Kouz…If you have to throw in Liriano or Baker to make it happen… JUST DO IT!!!
That will smoke out the “just do something” crowd. T’ll complain, just like now 
Regards,
T’ll=They’ll
whats the point dragon….thats a pretty silly comment, and im not sure what youre after…just a senseless waste of time…
mj,
A couple of points:
1.) Posts are by fans. I understand that, yet I suspect with a little less info/nkowledge than the FO.
2.) Last year, these blogs predicted a Twin’s team with low 70’s wins. I think thrylos was the only one who was anywhere near the actual result.
So under Part 1, many posters feel free to hurl invective against the Twins FO for OUTPERFORMING their (the bloggers) wisdom by 10+ games (Part 2). Sour grapes if you ask me.
Would be interesting if each poster was required to post their last year prediction before throwing crap.
I’ll start, I predicted 81 wins +/- 2 wins in (2008), I was incorrect, judge my brilliant suggestions/posts based on that historical fact.
Regards,
Well here I go again, I sure hope that the Twins don’t trade DY cause he’s “uncoachable”. Some guys are too good to be buying in to the twins hitting philosophy(Ortiz).Let a slugger slug! Keep Delmon and trade Cruddy. Even if you have to enter the season with DY on the bench let Cruddy play everyday and bat in between M&M. Get Cruddy’s stats inflated and trade him before the deadline for BP help. Just an idea. Not like we can really count on Cuddy or Kubel to stay healthy anyway. If the twins really are trying to orchestrate a trade for Kouz thats cool with me but not DY don’t trade him.Plus then they should have made a move for Greene to play SS as well. I’m not a big Punto hater but the idea that he’s a legit starter is a joke. If for no other reason then he’ll never stay healthy.
I’m looking for Smith to do something to “smoke out” the gee golly complacent crowd…
Count me in for the “do something” to address blatant holes at 3b and pen crowd and damn proud of it.
All I meant is that Smith’s JOB is to evaluate all these possible moves. Don’t you think he talks to Ryan, too? And the scouts? We haven’t had a lot of success signing veteran free agents - what’s Lamb doing in 2009, again? Besides collecting the 2nd year of his Twins contract, that is? Smith will do something if he (they) think it’s a worthwhile risk.
The Twins are a young team, and overall they should be better than last year as they gain experience. Did we need another reliever last year? Yes, in hindsight. Will we this year? Maybe not if the starters can go deeper. Would a better 3B or SS be nice? Sure, but at what price?
mj1,
Did Dragon’s “just do something crowd” sound like someone you know?
Dragon,
I pegged the team at about 75 wins
Once again everyone is hyped about the Twins doing something anything for 3B. I can’t understand the fascination with Kouz. Personally he wouldn’t make my top 5 for possible 3B options for the Twins.
1) Trade for Beltre - negotiate for 4-5 yr extension needed - NTC - is a non issue — Boras is the issue
2) Trade for Aitkins/H.Street helps both 3B and Bullpen
3) sign Crede or Wigginton to 1-2 year deal with team option on 2nd/3rd year. Neither player costs the Twins a draft pick which tends to hold up signing FAs
4) Trade for M. Young for 2B move Casilla to SS - put LNP/Buscher/Harris into 3B rotaion not great but keeps Gardy happy with better defense and his LNP crush alive
5) Trade for B. Roberts Balt. for 2B - same reason as above.
Whatever we do for trades don’t move DY. Move Cuddy if at all possible to erase bad contract.
Another move the Twins should do is SIGN DUNN!!. I know his BA is bad but come one the guy has hit 40 HRs the last six years and in the Metrodome it shouldn’t be a problem to be a DH.
The Twins have a 3rd baseman. His name is Buscher…..
Topp Dogg
Buscher can’t field 3rd base very well… this is why the team is looking outside the organization… He can’t field, and has minimal power. Harris has limited range, and minimal power.
jkucenic,
Yes, I am proudly in the “complacent crowd”.
I am not a fan of “BLOWING UP” the YOUNGEST TEAM in baseball which despite outpreforming the dramatic optimism on these blogs last year, which predicted a lofty record of 72-75 wins is called by many a failure.
Standing pat could lead to a worse record, although through natural maturation of the young pups, it could easily add 3-8 more wins just through the added years experience and maturation.
From my perspective, last years scheduling was good for learning and growth for the youth. Due to the Convention, the Twins had an imbalance of home games thru mid-August. Due to a very good home record, the young pups got the winning experience down and their confidence up. Then came the brutal west coast road trip, where they survived, yet not in sterling fashion. They came back in the last week to tie. Granted, they didn’t make the play-offs, yet they got the experience of a play-off run.
There will be some improvements and some regressions, which I expect to equal in a net improvement.
I have yet to see a dramatic improvement on offer over last years 3rd base situation. Yes, some marginal potential improvement, but what the heck, let’s spend $$$$ to feel happy. If it works, many will do the “I told you so”; if not, NONE will come forward to admit they were wrong, rather they will call Bill Smith a failure.
Last year at this time Denard Span was roundly and often criticized on these blogs as one of the WORST draft picks the Twins ever made, including some obvious ones. Maybe you were part of that crowd, maybe you weren’t.
At any rate, Bill Smith and the Twin’s OUTPERFORMED the consensus of these blog’s participents by 10-15 games and is deemed a failure.
Maybe posters aught to look in the mirror and pray they can reach the lofty perch of failure, because if past performance of the collective wisdom here (and I am part of that collective)is indicitive this group and their wisdom, it/they have to reach up to touch bottom.
Regards,
Since we are going by wish lists to help the team.
Trade Delmon Young (because I am guessing no one would want Cuddyer), Perkins, Humber/Duensing, and Tolbert to the Padres for Kevin Kouzmanoff and Heath Bell.
That solves both the 3rd base and the RP problems for the Twins.
It also allows Young to be an every day outfielder, Headly to move to 3rd, Tolbert to compete for a starting infield job, and two young starting pitchers that are under team control for a few years lessoning the burden on the ownership to have to trade Peavy.
BC,
If I were the Padre’s I’d do that in a heartbeat. You improve their team.
For the Twin’s blah, hopefully a wash at best. But, heck, it will make the let’s do something crowd happy.
A fearful prediction from someone who predicted INCORRECTLY the Twin’s would win 81 games +/- 2 wins in 2008.
Regards,
I said the Twins would win 74 games last year so don’t feel too bad.
If you look up Heath Bell’s numbers, and his age you will see that he’s a vet reliever without being an old reliever… and he has great h/9 innings, a low slg against, and about a k per inning… a very solid 8th inning guy.
Kouzmanoff at his age and contract status would be able to grow with the Twins for 4-5 years reletively cheap, and if he can play adequate defense, and remember he hit 20 plus homers last year playing half his games in the worst hitters park in baseball on a team going nowhere… put him here with an MVP, Batting Champ, speed at the bottom of the lineup, and OB% at the top… he could really thrive with the Twins…
all of the pieces we would give up in that trade would be easily replaced…
We could give a guy like Mulder an incentive laced contract, or someone of that nature, or we could rotate AAA pitchers at the 5th starter spot until one clicks.
BC, only guys on the Twins get better as they age, not guys on other teams (that they either could acquire, or will be on those other teams). Don’t you know anything about how this works?
*note, if you do not recognize that as sarcasm, I’m not sure my posts are aimed at you, the reader
Delmon/Swarzak for Kouz would be terrible. Delmon is 23 and could be a star, Swarzak is our best major league ready pitcher for a run of the mill 3 bagger. Lets wait for Valencia. Delmon’s value can only go up. I would rather stand pat
Sometimes the best move is no move. Even if it is not exciting
I can’t remember the last time I have been this unexcited for the Twins spring training. Wait, I can. 1998.
Aj, lots of young talent. Three great players. They overachieved last year. Maybe you are spoiled
Where’s Thrylos? Did he die?
Young is still a MORE than adequate SS, top five in fielding percentage and range factor among qualifying SS’s last year. We’re too cheap to get him though. Kouz had a .299 OBP last year…not what we need. Wiggy is still the guy, and if he signs a 1 year deal I will finally be convinced that Bill Smith is a retard.
Lavelle, thanks for the updates. Like always, you work to get some info out to the fans and it gives us something to talk about. Is Joe C. dead? Hasn’t posted anything in over 3 weeks I believe. My boss would fire me if I didn’t work for 3 hours, not to mention 3 weeks. What a slacker.
At the start of the off season this year, I was all for upgrading the left side of the infield. I’ll also admit, not getting Blake really broke my heart. At the same time, I think the team was right in not offering a third year.
After Blake, the options became very dismal in a hurry.
I’m not sure what to think about a Young for Kous trade. I think Young has the potential to be a much better hitter than Kous. First off, consider that Kous is three years older than Young. Last year, at 22 years old, Young hit 10 homers at the major league level in one of the worst parks for hitters (and most of those came after the all star break). When Kous was 22, he hit 12 homers in single A. I think Kous for Young will ultimately be a bad trade for the Twins. I also feel that Young is on the verge of breaking out. I could easily see him becoming the big right handed bat they’ve been looking for. I’m kind of hoping that friend of a friend post is a bunch of hooey.
I wouldn’t be adverse to seeing the team pick up on Wiggy or Crede, but the deals would have to short term and Crede’s would have to be very incentive laden.
Ultimately, I think they should forget about trading for a bat - cost right now is too high. Start the season with last year’s team intact and either with or without Crede/Wiggy. Let the season play out and see what happens. As is, the team is solid and is easily one of the favorites in the central (barring any major injuries, of course). If they are still in it at the all-star break and third base is still a problem, they could make another run at Beltre or some of the other names that have been batted around this winter. That, in my mind, is the most sensible approach for corner infield spot.
I think the more pressing need is bullpen help and the team has let some good ones slip through their fingers at bargain rates. I also don’t like the names I’ve been hearing popping up lately.
Personally, I think they should give Cruz some serious consideration. A lot has been said about the team losing a draft pick, but I don’t see them losing a pick so much as putting the pick off for a year or two. They lose it now, but they gain it back (plus a sandwich pick) if and when Cruz opts to move on once his contract is up. Yes, I’m aware that there is a risk that he won’t still be a type A free agent at the end of his contract, but I see it as less risky than a draft pick panning out (even a first rounder).
The way I see it, Cruz has to be thinking he isn’t going to get the contract he wanted. He’s either going to come up short on years, salary, or both. Smith should listen to what he wants, then offer one or the other. Give him one year at full value, or offer him a longer deal with a sizable discount on the annual salary.
A one year deal at full value might be an attractive option for both sides. For Cruz, he could make more money now with the chance that the market would be more receptive next year. For the Twins they would shore up their bullpen with minimal risk of Cruz declining enough to lower his type A status. Next year, Neshek will be back and there should be a few more options available from the farm as well.
Call me crazy, but I think this is do-able.
As the winter drags on, and as far as baseball is concerned, draws to a close, I’m more content with our roster. THAT DOESN’T MEAN THAT I WANT TO STAND PAT. Just had to make that clear. I would love the attempt to sign Wiggy, but thinking about it, would his numbers be THAT much better than Buscher/Harris? I rather doubt it.
Maybe .263 45 RBI’s and 9 HR’s Combine at the brake to Wiggy’s:
.278 53 RBI’s and 11 HR’s.
Better? Yes. Much better? Not really. Given the choice, I’d sign him, but I’m Not dreading the prospect of platooning the two.
Would really like, not love, getting Kouz. Not for Young though*. Not in a hundred-thousand million years. (Visual)
1,000,000,000,000 (Trillion I think). After that, then I’d make that trade.
…Sorry got side tracked.
*This is 100% exempt, however, if the Twins are not going to play Young. If he rides the bench, I’d trade him for string cheese. They’d better play him, ’cause I really feel that hell be a he’ll of a player. (Yes, intentional). If not this year, soon. And he WILL improve this year.
Someone mentioned that they didn’t know what Mike Lamb was doing in 2009.
The Answer: Playing for the Brewers.
This is the reason this club will not be getting my money this year. This club continues to be the cheapest team in Minnesota. All they do each year is bring in over the hill players to be a stop gap and each time this experiment continues to fail. Everyone should have seen this coming from this club, all we heard was how much this team needed a new stadium to survive, so they get their stadium and you can guarantee this, so take note of what i’m going to say…. The Twins will not spend money on anyone worthy even when they do move into the new ballpark, they will continue to skate on the cheap!
You know, the more I think about this, the more I wouldn’t be surprised if the Twins made this trade, whether the dude who started the rumor on this blog was serious or not.
Just too much buzz about Young throughout the offseason (especially Gardy’s comments) and I really do think they were more disappointed in Young last year than they let on. And I also think they are genuinely concerned about the “not enough at-bats to go around” issue, especially with Young’s personality (or, what appears to be his personality).
I just think Gardenhire is enamored with the upside of Gomez/Span and their intangibles, and Cuddyer falls into the realm of Punto for this team, in that he is a club favorite.
So, in summary, while I would have mixed feelings about it, I would not be shocked at all if this type of trade went down.
It would make sense that it took this long to pull off because Kouz had shoulder surgery back in October/early Nov and the Twins would be waiting to make sure he is fine for spring training.
The Swarzak/Antonelli thing is something I’m not sure I get. If the Twins were to actually do something like this, why wouldn’t they try and pry some good relief help away?? Do the Twins lack prospect infield depth help?
Their is no way to trade a 23 year old with a huge upside and under club control for 4 years and one of the best Twins pitching prospects for Kouzmanoff.
Kouzmanoff had a .732 OPS last year, including a .299 OBP. Vs LHP he had a .661 OPS and a .290 OBP. He is under club control for 3 more years, he entering his first year of arbitration eligibility, but is 27 (a year younger than Harris). I think that Harris will probably be better than Kouzmanoff for the Twins at this point. Don’t forget that the Padres got Kouzmanoff (and Andrew Brown) for Josh Barfield two years ago. So something like a Buscher and a mid level pitching prospect (Humber) would be more than enough for him. But, again, Harris close to full time at third would be a better option than Kouzmanoff. (heck Bill Hall, who hit .306/.371/.522 off lefties last year would be a better option).
The Twins do think that they have their third basemen of the future (Danny Valencia, DJ Romero) and they probably are not going to look for an option that would be with the team for longer than 1-2 years.
I agree, I’d rather see Harris get a shot at this point than deal for Kouzmanoff. Now if only I thought Gardy agreed.
Jake,
Young is over the hill, under contract until his age 37 season and his offense and range have been steadily declining. He is owed about $80 million in the duration of his contract. If the Twins have $80 million to spend, it would be more effective to sign Manny Ramirez to a 4 year/$80 million contract.
Dragon , you are one of the smartest guys here .Guys like the far too numerous Brandon lack the intellectual honesty to admit that their past predictions and studies give them no credibility . Even the media ‘big boys’ like Ruesse have a terrible track record of predicting what and how, off season moves will effect the Twins final result. Each spring Ruesse and the like predict a season of medocrity with the the Twins finishing far behind the other teams who made glamorous off season moves. Of course they make big bucks feeding that notion of the ‘cheapskate Twins’ without ever having to be ultimately responsible for THEIR poor judgements. Now really Brandon, if the Twins are the cheapest team in Minnesota , can the other ‘high spending’ teams match the Twin’s 6 first place finishes in 8 years????? I don’t think all the other teams put together can match the Twins first place finishes! I pity you guys who can’t find SOME satisfaction with all the divisional titles.
The problem with the average fan is that they don’t see the upside that a talented young player can bring to a team . It is still a crapshoot but guys like Gardy and Andy are experts at seeing the odds are with the talented players who develope into something rather than the older player who can’t always sustain what he did in the past! You guys all saw Denard coming , right! And you guys want to throw money at Dunn?
All they do each year is bring in over the hill players to be a stop gap and each time this experiment continues to fail.
You’re right. It’s time for a change! We want Crede and Young. Not a bunch of washed up, over the hill….vets….
Oh wait.
Each spring Ruesse and the like predict a season of medocrity…
I dunno about the rest, but the Twins could sign Rameriez and Ruesse would still be all pissy about something or other.
Ron P,
I don’t disagree with a lot of the things you are saying but:
* Gardy did not see Span and Casilla coming either and he chose to start the season with Tolbert in the bigs instead of them
* Gardy does not really value young players that much. Cases in point: Signing and proclaiming as his starting SS the 31 year old Punto, proclaiming Cuddyer his starting RF over Delmon Young, getting Guardado in the pen (and keeping Rincon earlier in the season), sticking with the veteran Hernandez while Liriano was ready in AAA in July, etc…
I am all with the go young movement (and hope that the Twins will give Delaney and Slama a chance to win a BP job this season) but the Twins like their veterans…
the thing is gardy is the decider! he has said dy is not his full time outfielder, he showed he won’t use harris full time. he says defense is first but then leaves buscher in most of sept, when he’s hitting poorly and can’t throw the ball to first base. face it he decides and punto will be the ss all season harris will play part time, young will sit on the bench until he really becomes a cancer, so gardy can say i told you so and buscher will throw a half dozen into the right field stands.
I just don’t think it’s that easy…There are delusional pie in the sky folks that want to see the Twins sign Ramirez, or trade for Young or Peavy or whatever.
But then there are others that aren’t advocating for this team to go nuts in free agency, but rather make a meaningful attempt to plug the holes with proven guys.
I think I’m speaking more in lines of the bullpen. I mean, I just don’t how anyone could watch what unfolded last year and not be blown away that this team did not actively make a move for somebody in the mold of Affeldt, Howry, or Nelson or somebody in that mold.
So RonP….I think, for some of us, that’s where much of the frustration currently lies. Sure, the Twins are great at building from within, but sometimes, you need to go outside.
thrylos: Gardy didn’t sign Punto. Bill Smith did. He could’ve just as easily let Punto go and forced Gardy to go with a different option at SS.
.Thry.. I think Harris is just 23, now, and will be 24 this spring..
Harris is 28 and will be 28 in the spring. DOB: August 26, 1980
t i think smith learned from last year when he signed some players that weren’t gardy’s kind of player and had to eat a bunch of contract. we all know how gardy thinks about nicky so smith didn’t sign him against what gardy wanted.
if there is a power struggle i’ll take gardy coming out on top, he has a much better track record with the owners. imo!
weren’t gardy’s kind of player and had to eat a bunch of contract.
If you’re referring to Lamb, Monroe, and Hernandez…that was less about “Gardy’s kind of player” and more about “any kind of player”.
i am so sick of all of this rambling by the twins front office that they are still looking for a power bat and a relevier they aint going to do anything bill smith is a total looser and we wont get any big name guy until he and gardy are down the road i lost all respect for gardy when he was all loaded in the dakotas rambling about his outfiled you dont bech a guy who played his ass off last year in young and then you might put a guy at third who stands there like a dumb ass and looks at the ball in harris good luck twin you aint going anywhere this year
jkucenic,
“Swarzak/Antonelli thing is something I’m not sure I get. If the Twins were to actually do something like this, why wouldn’t they try and pry some good relief help away?? ”
Adding Kouzmanoff plus Antonelli would make Harris, Buscher and and Tolbert excess roster-fillers and they could be traded for an RP.
Also, there are several FA RP’s still available.
If the Twins trade away DY it will be like when the Giants traded for AJ. We’ll get one OK player and the Padres will get two future all-stars. Bad move.
A combo of 75% Harris 25% Buscher
.285 15HR’s 75RBI
Kouz
.260 25HR’s 75RBI
I love it when people go on a rant and use no punctuation. It all just runs together and you know right away that they are either REALLY fired up, or really dumb…or both.
Our Defense on the left side of the infield would be pretty solid with Punto at SS and Harris at 3B. Reminds me of Scott Leius and Gagne. Everyone forgets that in 91 we had a less then spectacular 3B platoon of a Leius and Pags.
Buscher/Pags= Good contact hitting lefty with no power.
Leius/Harris= Natural SS moved to 3B has some pop and good glove.
shazel, if Kouz is the 3B, full time, doesn’t that free up a spot on the roster for someone else to contribute? That is, you can lose one or both of Harris/buscher, and add another contributor.
I’m not sure that matters, but the advantage of having one starter is that you can then build your bench differently. Again, not sure it really matters.
And, Gardy played Harris to all of 37 ABs in September. I don’t think he shares our enthusiasm for the better fielder/hitter.
Of course, Antonelli was a .215 hitter in the PCL last year, so he won’t be taking a job away from any of Twins MLB infielders for a while.
Harris, Buscher and and Tolbert excess roster-fillers and they could be traded for an RP.
Buscher and Tolbert have near zero trade value and Harris won’t bring much back either.
Who in their right mind would trade anything of any real value for Brian Buscher?
Ron P,
Thanks for the kind comments, but as flattering as they are, they are likely incorrect.
I am a poor schmuck who posts an opinion, like everyone else here.
My major complaint is that many posters here, even LEN3 make categorical statements WITHOUT providing proof, that the FO is DOING NOTHING!!!
I have posted before that I would like the proofs (tapes, fax machine verifications of activity, etc.) to support the charge. The absence of a result IS NOT proof of a lack of activity, OR attempts to achieve a result. A number of years ago I worked on a project to gain financing for the purchase of a group of Nursing Homes, 3 of us worked 60-80 hr weeks for almost 6 months to get this done. In the end the project was far too speculative to finance. On this board, the common response would be that we DID NOTHING. That response would be both FALSE and a SLANDER.
Regards,
NOTE: I predicted INCORRECTLY the Twin’s would win 81 games +/- 2 wins in 2008.
Does anyone really think Billy Smith will do anything with picking up a few decent free agents. I guess time will tell but right now he is nothing more an over paid PR guy. Hope he takes a break from eating those steaks to actually run the ball club.
Since when does Harris have a good glove?
I’m not saying they aren’t working. I’m saying they aren’t achieving the outcomes I’d prefer. There is a difference.
Risebrough: Please expand on the phrase “decent free agents”.
It’d help add credibility to any complaint you may have should the Twins bring in a new player and he fails to produce.
Mikewantstowin…
I actually agree with you.If we did have Kouz that would mean Harris could play SS when LNP get hurt sliding into first. Although I’m not sure Harris is better than Tolbert.
I’ll take the bait, Dragon.
I hereby make the categorical statement that the Twins FO has done NOTHING!!!
As proof, I offer the fact that the Twins front office has done nothing.
I suspect, however, that won’t be enough proof for you.
There are none so blind as those who refuse to see.
“I predicted INCORRECTLY the Twin’s would win 81 games +/- 2 wins in 2008.”
Well, I don’t put too much stock in preseason predictions. The 2008 Twins were able to avoid major injuries to key players with the exception of Cuddy and that only opened the door for Span. Also the starting rotation was very consistant (and mostly healthy) which most people didn’t see coming.
I also thought Cleveland would make a better showing and the Sox would show their age. I was wrong about both.
USAFChief,
Please read the transcripts.
Dragon said “doing nothing”, not “done nothing”.
That implies lack of effort.
Once again, show proof that they are doing nothing (exerting no effort).
YOU CAN’T HANDLE THE TRUTH!!!
When a soldier digs a ditch, and subsequently refills it, is he “doing nothing”?
As proof, I offer the fact that the Twins front office has done nothing.
The signing of Nick Punto and minor league contract for RA Dickey would suggest that “something” has in fact been done.
However, if you wish to caveat it with “nothing of significance” feel free. Though (as has been proven time and time again), “significance” is entirely subjective.
I hate showing proof to back my knowledge of baseball.
Sy, I for one don’t give a rat’s behind how hard they’re TRYing. This ain’t Little League, and nobody should be awarded ‘effort points.’
And I would say “done nothing” since July of last season would qualify in my book as “doing nothing” anyway.
I should further note that the Twins have been linked to discussions for players such as Ty Wigginton, Casey Blake, Mark DeRosa, Kawashi Kawakima (sp?), Adrian Beltre, Bradon Lyon, JJ Hardy…etc.
They are “doing” plenty. However it seems that to some “doing” equates to “done”. And the only proof that they are “trying” is to actually “do”.
Otherwise they are accused of being liars.
If a person eating a candy bar drops it and picks it back up has something actually been done
hence the Punto factor. We didn’t gain anything we just didn’t lose anything by signing Punto
And I would say “done nothing” since July of last season would qualify in my book as “doing nothing” anyway.
The Twins have done the following since July…
1) Released Mike Lamb.
2) Released Livan Hernandez (or was it trade?)
3) Dealt Mike Hamburger for Eddie Guardado.
4) Signed Nick Punto to a 2-year contract.
5) Signed RA Dickey to a minor league contract.
Again, your mistaking the objective “Done nothing” with the subjective “Done nothing of significance”
If a person eating a candy bar drops it and picks it back up has something actually been done
Unless they actually eat the canday bar, I would argue that they lied about their actual interest in the sugary treat.
If you need further proof the Twins have done nothing, I submit T’s 10:43 post.
Case closed.
T LOL thank you I have been in such a funk I needed that
A list of things the Twins haven’t done since July of 2008.
12/11/08 Signed SS Nick Punto to a two-year contract with a club option for 2011. Selected RHP Jason Jones from the New York Yankees in the Rule 5 draft.
12/3/08 Released DH Randy Ruiz.
12/1/08 Offered salary arbitration to LHP Dennys Reyes.
8/25/08 Acquired LHP Eddie Guardado from the Texas Rangers in exchange for RHP Mark Hamburger. Designated INF Mike Lamb for assignment.
8/11/08 Signed OF Bobby Kielty to a Minor League contract.
8/6/08 Released OF Craig Monroe.
8/1/08 Designated RHP Livan Hernandez and OF Craig Monroe for assignment.
Yeah man, I want proof too. Like why Wiggy sucks now because he played in a park with a short porch yet nobody can tell me the actual distance of his HRs…..or why he is defensive downgrade despite committing 6 errors in 82 games at 3b last year, while Brian “look out in the front row” Buscher committed 10 in 62……I need some proof.
USAFChief,
Trades can’t be completed unilaterally.
If the other team won’t agree to the deal, expended effort is the only result.
If you need further proof the Twins have done nothing, I submit T’s 10:43 post.
Case closed.
Oh my mistake. I thought you were claiming the Twins “did nothing”.
I didn’t realize you actually meant the Twins “did nothing I, USAFChief, personally approve of.”
My mistake.
I work hard at doing nothing all day.
jku: http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2008_4822&type=hitter
I’m not sure where the “short porch” argument got started (though I’m pretty sure it probably came from some random “troll” vs. a more regular…as is typically the case when somebody throws out a random reason such as that)…but I googled to see if I could come up with something to answer that.
I’d have to look at that link to better understand what’s actually being measured, but it’s a start…
jk,
You want the actual distance of Wiggy’s HR’s?
Who keeps track of that trivia?
sy: http://www.hittrackeronline.com
I literally just found it like 5 minutes ago…but it looks like one of thoes sites that could be interesting to read once I figure out how the heck they get their numbers…
Thanks, T.
Asked and answered.
t98,
Yes, Gardy chose Tolbert over Casilla out of spring training, but in the role of a back-up infielder. Casilla was either going to be a starter or stay in Rochester until he was ready.
Hitting isn’t done unilaterally either. But, if someone continues not to hit well, you don’t reward them for trying, you find someone that can hit well. The Twins said they wanted to upgrade the left side of the infield (I think they said that, maybe I’m remembering wrong), and so far, they have not succeeded.
Now, I’m no fan of the moves Smith has and has not made in his year on the job, but it’s a tad early to say he’s not good at it. Maybe Young will turn out to be a hitter. Maybe they’ll get more than just great CF defense in exchange for one of the 5 best pitchers in baseball. Maybe Buscher/Harris will work out. Maybe Punto is a legit SS. Maybe keeping a bunch of starters in AA and AAA and not trading for more hitting is a good idea. We’ll know more in 6 months.
T,
You could:
1) hardcopy that plot.
2) draw an outline of the Metrodome outfield fence dimension on it.
3) count the balls that landed outside the “Metrodome” fence.
4) Then call Wiggy and tell him we are no longer intersted.
mike,
To say that the Twins FO has not done what they wanted to do in the offseason would be correct.
Apparently, they found out that they were not capable of doing what they wanted to do.
It looks like they are now working on Plan B, which involves the use of the “Possum Technique”.
I’m sick and tired hearing about how a players contract (M. Young’s) would be a hindrance. Our payroll is 57 million. Young would be a great addition, but I understand if Texas wants too much than a deal shouldn’t be made. I just don’t want to hear anymore about decisions and dollars. The Twins have the payroll room. Make some additions to put this team over the top and make it a World Series contender not just an AL Central contender!
Fellow Twins fans,don’t be discouraged. Just take solace in knowing that to a man we have all done more than Bill Smith this offseason to improve the Twins in this “winter of our discontent.” The current weather conditions were caused by the Arctic air drawn this way as we collectively and simultaneously patted ourselves on the back for our efforts.
3 things…
If the Twins are gonna trade Cuddyer, it would have to be now; therefore, Cuddy will not be traded. Cuddyer will not be traded at the break unless the Twins are already out of it, because if they’re trying to get something out of Cuddyer, like a reliever, no team looking to add help will give up a top-flight bullpen option. Any team that has a top-flight bullpen option to give up will be out of the race, and will not be interested in Cuddyer. Therefore, if we want the Twins to be successful this year, we should start preparing for a year of Cuddyer on the roster.
The top 5 3rd baseman list presented by a poster was absolutely ludicrous. Beltre has added the Twins to his NTC, and there is no way he would ever sign a 4-5 year extension with the Twins because they would never offer one. The Twins want someone cheap for 4-5 years, or mildly expensive for 2, max, because by 2011 at the latest, either Hughes or more likely Valencia will be the every day 3B. Atkins (NOT Aitkins), will also never come here, which is a good thing. He is terrible away from Coors, and the Rockies wanted Span, Slowey and more for him. Forget it. Young is far too expensive, and is on the downside of his career, and would tie up salary that would be better used signing Span, Gomez, Slowey, Baker, etc. The Wiggy/Crede option is reasonable, but you’re assuming that one or both of those would be willing to sign for only one or two years.
Finally, to Tender Loving Craig, with your views on childbirth; you said if you had a baby, you would hand out stogies, have some drinks, and then resume your normal life, and that you missed the “good old days.” Tell me, was that before or after you drove your Studebaker home from work to listen to Jack Benny on the radio in your asbestos-insulated home? Give me a break you misogynistic creep.
Thanks T….Wow. Now we’re getting somewhere.
sane: If you figure Wiggy would likely get a multi-year contract, would it be fair to not call him until I’ve also comparred the graph to Target Field’s measurements?
bufftwins: Young’s contract is a hinderance in two ways.
1) The actual cash.
2) The NTC. If the Twins deal for Young, and he either gets hurt or doesn’t make the difference they had hoped…they’ll have their hands tied trying to move him.
And from the way things are looking, his value is only dropping with time.
Oh, and I’ve seen the “short porch” argument in several places in the argument against going after Wiggy (not just this blog). Being the smart guy I am, I wanted to dig deeper into that argument.
Up next, I am seeking a spray chart of where Brian Buscher’s ball landed in the front row last year.
Just for the heck of it: http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2007_3034&type=hitter
Also, jku:
I don’t know if “throwtofirsttracker.com” is currently available. 
http://www.kfan.com/pages/teamguides/twins/archive/Twinscope011309.html
Interesting article on Nick Punto versus Michael Young….
Speaking of Punto: http://www.hittrackeronline.com/index.php?h=MIN&sortm=hrpf&sort=asc
Apparently he hit a homer of Paul Byrd that wouldn’t be a homerun in any park…?
Now I’m interested in finding that “homer” that Rodriquez hit off Span’s glove.
Or the in-the-parker that Lew Ford gave up to Prince Fielder.
Nice work on the hit tracker, T. One caveat, that website is measuring “true distance,” meaning if there were no outfield walls, where would the ball touch down. What you can’t see is how far above the ground the ball is, so it is somewhat harder to gauge if the ball would be 8 or 9 feet off the ground when it got to the point where the wall is. What would be really helpful would be if you could see the ball’s flight path from ground level, and you could then drop in a theoretical wall anywhere, which would be the best indicator of if a ball hit in one park would still be a homer in another.
And when I click on that latest hittracker link, there it is! All is right with the world….
I don’t understand why any Twins fan could seriously want M Young. Even if you look past his contact (which runs into his late 30s) or his average play, the only reason he is available is because he won’t be a team player and move to 3b. I can understand a player not wanting to learn a new position, but for an average player who is soooo overpaid to refuse the move? If the Twins traded for him he’d be one of the highest paid players on the team. Big contract, bad attitude, average player. No thanks.
for what it is worth, the Twins are going into the season with a much better team in 2009 than they did in 2008:
No Livan
Healthy Liriano
Great lead-off hitter who plays great defense
A more experienced rotation
A solid 2B
There are some parts that have “held steady”:
No-hit, great glove SS
Great fielding CF with questionable but projectable bat
Question mark at 3B
High upside RF, room to improve
Bullpen with decent parts and weaknesses
Solid minors with pitching coming up
I meant high upside LF.
AM, great list, even if I don’t agree with all of the specifics.
The Twins are definitely in better shape than they were entering last season. However, it is frustrating to see the Twins do NOTHING to improve their bullpen.
I should also add the obvious
Elite closer
MVP-caliber C; well above average on offense and defense
Decent/very good 1B
thinking third,
Ubelmann has an interesting discussion on the bullpen on SBG. Seth has a link a day or two ago.
While I AM NOT a heavy stats guy, particularly the designer stats, it seems to say not much out there is an upgrade (at least that’s how I read it).
Regards,
Caveat as previously noted.
while I’m at it:
Pluses:
No Monroe as a temptation to waste ABs
Higher estimate of Blackburn’s worth
Kubel closer to full health
Negatives:
More realistic estimate of DY and Gomez’ hitting value
The Twins overachiever last year: insane RISP and Livan won ten games. Still, I’m pleased we don’t have to overachieve to be good in case we don’t, and I’m pleased we don’t have a ton of obvious deadweight we have to weed out going into the season. This is the best looking Twins team we’ve had in a long time.
(of course, Beltre or Hardy or Y Escobar would be nice)
AM, I would say that most of us would think the bullpen going in to last year (with Neshek, for example) was a strength. I sense there is considerably less confidence in that area going in to 2009.
I think most of us did, and also thought our defense would be good. But with Bass, Guerrier, and Rincon, it wasn’t a good BP, and with Harris, Lamb, and DY/Cuddyer, the defense was bad.
I would categorize both as at least a “hold steady” with expected defensive improvement (punto/casilla better than Harris/Everett, full year of gomez/ span combo)
Bullpen are pretty variable from year to year. Ours may be average even without a big upgrade–at least Bass and Rincon are gone.
The bullpen wont be a problem if the starters can last more then 5 innings. The nice thing is that none of the five returning starters should be limited to the amount of innings they pitch.
If Mijares and Breslow pitch like they did last year, and Boof shows that his late-season transition to MRP wasn’t a mirage, that’s 4 solid pieces of a 6-man ‘pen (including Nathan).
AM brings up a good point in all those posts. As bad as Livan was, he did win 10 games. How many more games will Liriano win in that same number of starts (or not lose or lose)? While it was clear to me that Livan made 3-5 too many starts, I’m not sure that the Twins will win that many more of Liriano’s starts than they did Livan’s. Somehow they managed to win despite Livan in a lot of those games.
Gardy and Andy were still limiting Santana’s innings, so while the SPs should have their limits raised this year, I wouldn’t be so sure it will be by a lot.
JC
Do you mean Liriano? I know they were limiting his innings but weren’t they watching Baker close as well? Blackburn lead all the starters with 193 innings.
The limits for Gardy/Andy have always been at the 100 pitch count, which holds true for games all year, except for maybe the end of the year. They start limiting innings at the end of the season by missing a start (ie Perkins last year).
The problem with your innings counts for starters is that Liriano, Perkins, and maybe one other, was pitching innings in AAA, which factors into total IP. Baker was injured briefly, so no problem. Blackburn was the only one at the majors for us all year without getting injured, which I guess says something his durability.
The bullpen wont be a problem if the starters can last more then 5 innings.
There seems to be a persistant urban myth about the Twins starters in 2008…that they consistently pitched less far into games than previous Twins staffs.
It’s not true: Here are the IP totals for Twins starters for the past 5 years:
2008: 959 IP
2007: 967 IP
2006: 941 IP
2005: 1025 IP
2004: 988 IP
Only in 2005 did Twins starters eat up significantly more innings in the recent past. Twins starters in 2008 went as far into games as has been normal for them.
What really changed for the Twins in 2008 was the number of appearances by Twins relievers:
2008: 485 appearances
2007: 438
2006: 421
2005: 396
2004: 435
Gardy made a lot more pitching changes once he was into the bullpen than in previous years.
Blame that on Gardy, or ineffective relievers, not on the starters.
Personally I blame it on the pitchers in the pen, not Gardy.
USA Chief
You need to divide the number of innings pitched by the number of starters then. How many differant starters did they have in those years?
You need to divide the number of innings pitched by the number of starters then. How many differant starters did they have in those years?
How’s that relevant to how far into games the starters pitched?
Whether the Twins used 162 starters for 1 game each, or 5 starters for 32/33 starts each, the average length of the start is the same, and it wasn’t much different than recent years.
I think it’s a valid point, regardless of philosophy, that everyone should be feeling a bit more optimistic about the rotation going in to this year, compared with last year.
If you go back to blog threads from last March, it’s actually pretty interesting to read what everyone felt were the team’s relative strengths and weaknesses.
By the way… memo to Strib staff… there really should be an easier way to go back and read archived blog entries. I think LEN’s the only one of the three that even has links to them by month. I honestly don’t remember what I predicted for a 2008 record but I don’t think I could probably find it, even if I knew where to look. I seem to recall one of the guys posting a “predictions” entry and a “picks to click” entry, but finding them would be a pain in the butt, I think.
Chief my bad your right i was thinking of starts not starters and it really doesn’t show much differance. I just meant that this year all the starters should be expected to pitch more innings.
I know i thought going into last year that minus Radke and Santana the rotation would be the biggest weakness.
mike,
” I’m not sure that the Twins will win that many more of Liriano’s starts than they did Livan’s. Somehow they managed to win despite Livan in a lot of those games.”
Maybe hard-luck Blackburn, Slowey, Perkins and Baker will become the beneficiaries of all the runs that were scored for Livan last year.
Livan’s wins may be scattered around the whole staff this year.
I don’t want to revive the arguments that Livan replaced Santana, because his W-L record.
If the Twins continue to score runs at last year’s rate, SOMEBODY (deserving or not) will get the wins.
Oh, I agree sane. the point is, can they win a larger percent of Livan’s starts than Livan did? Whether it was luck or “understanding how to pitch and win”, they won a lot of games he started.
The Twins had 5 CG’s last year and Livan had 2 of them Slowey had the other 3. It would be nice to see one other pitcher get at least 1 or 2 this year.
Innings pitched by starters or relievers may be most dependant on the performance level of that pitcher.and the resulting confidence it gives Gardy or Andy.
If Gardy/Andy thinks that the pitcher who is on the mound NOW, will get out the current batter, he is much more likely to pitch to that (and subsequent) batters.
Last year, the pitching staff was less effective than previous years.
Hence, more appearances by relievers, but the total innings don’t increase, if you play 162 games every year.
Going rate for a HR wanted:
Since Wiggy is the flavor de jure, I went to compare his line with the Harris/Buscher combo.
Focusing on 2B & Hr’s
Harris 29 2B 7 HR
Buscher 9 2B 4 HR
Total 38 2B 11 HR
Wiggy 22 2B 23 HR
Crede 18 2B 17 HR (thrown in for free)
Those yere 2008 numbers, Wiggy’s 162 game career average is close to the 38 combo 2b’s.
SO, it appears that the difference is 12 HR’s, IF Wiggy can duplicate HR totals.
IF Wiggy is 6 mil/yr vs Harris/Buscher 1.5 mil/yr, The TOTAL upgrade is 12 HR @ 375,000 per HR. I am sure it’s cheap at twice that price.
Kubel vs. Dunn
Dunn 23 2b 40 HR
Kubel 22 2b 20 HR
Dunns 162 avg 2b is 29, yet skewed by 4/5/6 year old data. Last 3 years avg 24/25.
If Dunn is 8 mil/yr and Kubel is 3 mil/yr That’s 250K per HR, IF Dunn is 10 mil/yr that 350K per HR and you get 1-3 2b for free.
The question will 32 HR’s, presuming previous performance can be duplicated going to turn into any significant run production?
Do harris/Buscher/Kubel have any UPSIDE?
Do Wiggy & Dunn have any DOWNSIDE?
Regards,
Usual caveat applies:
As bad as Livan was, he did win 10 games.
And as mediocre Perkins was, he did win 12.
But here is the kicker:
In close games (i.e. games decided with less that 2 runs) the Twins were 8-2 when Livan started and 6-6 when Perkins started. So Livan did not really win in blowout games like Perkins did…
The Twins’ record in close games when Liriano started was 1-3 (and that was his second turn in the rotation…)
As far as the other pitchers go, the Twins record in close games when the following started was:
Blackburn 7-9
Bonser 5-3
Baker 7-12
Slowey 3-5
If you take Livan’s and Bonser’s starts out of the equation the Twins’ record in close games was a nasty 23-32 (that does not make a champion.)
One more step: in close games (of all the 6 starters) when Twins scored more than 4 runs (i.e. the bats did their job) their record was 18-14, which is ok. When they scored less than 4 runs, in close games their record was an abysmal 6-21.
So basically this says that lack of offense and not bad bullpen was the problem with the Twins in close games.
This is the reason that instead of looking at unnecessary bullpen help, they should be looking at a bat or two…
mike,
“can they win a larger percent of Livan’s starts than Livan did?”
I understand.
But the antithesis to your question would be:
Can they avoid losing as large a percentage of Blackburn’s starts from last year?
IMO, runs scored are all under a bell-shaped curve and Livan’s starts were under the apex. Now, everyone else will move toward the apex.
bad addition… make that 20-14 when they scored more than 4 runs not 18-14
Dragon,
I apologize, but I have already forgotten the “Usual caveat”.
sane;
usual caveat = 81 +/- 2 in 2008…LOSER
Regards
Usual Caveat (see above) 
sane, you’re speaking my language (job: statistician). However, I think runs scored is more of a chi-square distribution. Definitely skewed, rather than a symmetric “bell curve”.
Your Harris/Buscher vs Wiggy comparison is a little skewed, Dragon.
Harris played multiple positions, and you included his stats while playing those positions.
Only one of Buscher/Harris can play 3rd base at any given time, so you should only include the stats Harris and/or Buscher had while playing third base, or at least while only one were in the game. Otherwise, you’re comparing Harris’ 493 PAs PLUS Buscher’s 244 PAs (combined 737 PAs) to Wigginton’s 429 PAs.
“Comparing 2b and HR” is a shallow comparison anyway, but if you’re going to do it, at least make it apples to apples.
j-sin,
Statistics are not really my specialty.
My only point is that Livan’s run support was random and the sun will shine on a different dog’s a$$ this year.
Chief: The only reason you’d ONLY look at hte stats for 3B is you’d want to try and avoid calculating stats for when the two were in at the same time.
Otherwise, why does it matter WHERE Harris got his hits? He’s still Brandon Harris regardless of what position he plays.
Twins have released non-roster invites to camp. See new thread.
Gotta get back to training….
USAF Chief,
My Humble apologies. Intended to make that comment, ALTHOUGH going forward Harris/Buscher are discussed as 3B option. Taking your point, there IS NO logical or viable way of comparison, because Wiggy might play some games as DH.
I’ll bring out the Crystal Ball tonight to get the precise breakdown. Actually, in an attempt to achieve transparancy, said Crystal Ball is really a “Magic 8-Ball).
Regards,
2008: 81 +/- 2 = LOSER.
WILLING TO BET CREDE COMES ON BOARD !
I’ll go slowly for you T:
Only one person can play third base at a time.
Did you miss the or at least while only one were in the game part?
A Buscher/Harris platoon at third won’t accumulate 737 PAs, and a full time Wigginton at third will accumulate more than 429 plate appearances.
Normalize the Harris/Busher platoon AND Wiggy to around 650 each, then get back to me with the doubles/HRs comparison.
Not that doing so would make it a good measurement, like I said, but at least you’d get a fair look at the data as presented.
My bad!
If runs scored were a bell-shaped curve, Livan’s starts would not be under the apex.
Livan’s starts would be out at the far end, where the runs are a large number, but the frequency of scoring that high number of runs is low.
Now I KNOW I have arrived as a STRIB poster.
I can now talk theory with my head completely up my …….!
Did you miss the or at least while only one were in the game part?
Oh sorry. Pulled a chief and only picked out the part that I could tear into.
Chief,
here are the normalized numbers:
Career stats average per 162 games:
Wigginton: 34 2B, 23 HR
Buscher: 16 2B, 9 HR
Harris: 36 2B, 11 HR
extrapolated for Buscher/Harris platoons:
50-50 platoon: 26 2B, 10 HR
75B-25H platoon: 21 2B, 10 HR
25B-75H platoon 31 2B, 10 HR
Thanks thrylos. I’m too lazy to do the math!
I think that I have demonstrated the reason that I didn’t do the math.
A smart boss once advised me “Never do math in public.”
I’ve had to relearn that advice thirtysev…thirtyeigh…a whole bunch of times.
Chief,
I hope that boss is now on the Joint Chiefs.
It seems to me a lot of fans enjoy the off season a lot more than the regular season and a lot of the commenters here seem to fit in that crowd. I understand, that’s how I feel with the NBA. Rarely watch a game but I enjoy the player movement and rumors.
But if you claim to be a Twins fan and you’re not excited for 2009 you are not a fan. Simple as that. This team was one of the most exciting teams in baseball last year filled with young guys who all have a legitimate chance to improve. Frankly, I’m more excited about this season than any in a while (yes, even 2007).
I honestly have very few qualms with the Twins offseason. The non-moves were the only moves in my mind unless they were going to trade for Beltre or Hardy. Hardy probably would’ve cost Liriano and it sounds like the Mariners have put an exceptionally high price on Beltre. Don’t force a deal, they rarely turn out good.
On another note, is there anywhere on the web where intelligent Twins fans can have discussions without running into the crap here or Dan on BYTO?
Drew - you captured my thoughts and that of many others completely.You have to wonder about the constant negativity of too many “fans”. It seems they root more for their personal blueprint for the team rather than what actually the team does on the field.
Like the Hanks character in “League of their Own ” said “If it was so easy , everyone could do it!” 30 MLB front offices tried their damndest to get to the WS last year , only 2 did , 2 that nobody predicted. The best MLB minds every year have mixed results to all their mix and match roster filling . The fans ( some of them) here can’t honestly beleive they could do a better job. Honestly- what team of last year does the 2009 Twins team most resemble? Is it the 08 Rays or the 08 Tigers? You can stand pat and be patient with very talented younsters to mature , or you can roll the dice and brag how you ‘upgraded” with all the big name veterans. And yes I do know the Rays did make a couple of good roster moves that meshed for them just right ( Bartlett , Hofffman)
I have faith the Twins FO can still make a good move yet. It’s only Jan. “If this was so easy , very shmuck could do it!”
And Drew ,if you find that blog where optimism and intelligence reigns, a lot of us will follow you there.
Still LOL at Jimmy Bee’s joke about tennis’ Williams sisters. I thought you would like this:
http://www.sportsbybrooks.com/serena-williams-nude-photo-posted-13417
