Thursday morning update
Posted on February 19th, 2009 – 8:02 AMBy La Velle
Found out something very interesting last night about Luis Ayala’s contract. It’s not guaranteed.
The Twins can cut Ayala up until 16 days before Opening Day and be on the hook for just 1/6th of his $1.3 million salary. If they cut him 15 days from the first pitch on in, they are on the hook for about 1/4th of the salary. The Twins have a little protection if Ayala doesn’t have a good spring.
More on Juan Cruz. If Cruz is moved as part of a sign and trade deal, Arizona is out a first-round pick and sandwhich round pick as compensation. That should influence the types of players the D-Backs would want in return for Cruz. It also stands to reason that several teams, and not just the Twins, would be in on Cruz if draft picks aren’t a factor.
But there are indications that Arizona can’t just sit back and demand a lot for Cruz. Cruz is making noises about sitting out until after the June draft, so Arizona would get nothing for compensation once Cruz signs with a club. So there’s motivation on their part to get something in return for him. The Twins have made a call to the league office to check on the change in the sign-and-trade rules. If they haven’t already been informed of the changes they should know today.
Boof Bonser is expected to throw today as he tries to work through tendonitis in his shoulder.
Twins manager Ron Gardenhire said he wouldn’t mind bringing back lefthander Dennys Reyes, who has found the free agent market a little rougher than expected. When we asked GM Bill Smith about the possibility of Reyes’ price falling into their wheelhouse. Smith would only say that there have been no talks with Reyes’ agent.
Almost forgot: Reliever Chad Cordero worked out for a bunch of scouts yesterday, But one of Cordero’s handlers told me that he didn’t see any Twins scouts in attendance. That’s not to say they weren’t there, but there has been no confirmation of it.
227 Responses to "Thursday morning update"
Isn’t Breslow supposed to be the new Reyes?
No on Reyes. That’s all I’m going to say.
Another NO vote for Reyes, unless he signs a minor league contract and has kept himself in shape this year. Too many donuts were the fall of him last year. When he was effective, I would bet he was 20 lbs lighter at least.
Let’s get Cruz, that would be a dream come true.
T,
“Isn’t Breslow supposed to be the new Reyes?”
It may be necessary for Breslow to become the new Crain or new Guerrier, if the old ones can’t be salvaged.
I don’t see Reyes waiting until June to sign so re-signing him would mean giving up the Type B sandwich draft pick. Since the Twins have the LOOGY thing pretty well covered with Breslow, I’m just not sure Reyes might not be worth more to the Twins if he signs somewhere else.
Why not sign Reyes as cheap as possible and package him in the deal to get ME!
Good idea. Juan Cruz 2.71 ERA in 51 innings. That would be OK
I don’t think the sign and trade thing is exactly set in stone yet.
Forget Reyes and keep the Type B pick, please.
You keep this one on file and fill in as needed, eh?
“When we asked GM Bill Smith about the possibility of ’s price falling into their wheelhouse, Smith would only say that there have been no talks with ’s agent.”
Reyes was good last season 2.33 ERA in 46 innings. Cruz would be more dependable and a multi year option but quite a bit more expensive, too. Do you really trust our lefties in the pen this year. Breslow (75 MLB innings) and Miljares (10 MLB innings)? Reyes is a cheap option (I’m guessing 1.5 M- 2M) in case one or both of the young guys struggle.
Right, Kevin. Breslow has bounced around a little bit and Mijares seems to have some issues. Should probably sign Cruz AND Reyes.
I’m not sure Reyes is going to get even $1M at this point.
No to Reyes. His ERA is misleading, because most of the runs he gave up weren’t charged to him. Save the money, and spend on someone useful.
On a completely unrelated note, LEN, when are we getting the “things to do in Ft. Myers when you’re dead” entry? Mrs. TK from SD and I are headed down there Sunday, and are looking forward to some spring workouts and games, but don’t know much about where to go for food, fun, history, and culture. Thanks.
When signing a type B player, the team doesn’t have to give up a pick, but the team that signs him gets a pick. Since we would technically be re-signing him, there would be no pick changes. That being said, I still don’t want him.
I’m sorry, the team that loses him gets the pick. My bad.
Why don’t Elli and Rob like Reyes? It was kind of fun watching Senor Sweat.
You keep this one on file and fill in as needed, eh?
You really miss Reyes that much eh?
LEN3 - is there much news on Crain? He’s gotta’ be a dark horse/X-factor for the pen. Seems like last year there was a lot of, “Well, Jesse’s just coming off shoulder surgery…” Any word on his velocity, control, how he looks, if we can expect improved performance, etc.?
I think we have better internal options for the pen, than Reyes. Losing Korecky and boof being hurt throws a wrench in that though.
Many jokes a few weeks ago about Eric Gagne, Greg Gagne, and Vern Gagne. Not a joke, but worth noting:
“wrestling legend Verne Gagne, 82, reportedly caused the death of a 97-year-old man by throwing him to the floor”. They both were in a nursing home with Alzheimers.
Back to baseball I guess.
Sign Crede right now!
All those unemployed Free Agents out there, but Everett, Livan, Guardado and Lamb all have jobs.
[…] a minor league contract with the Brewers. We ended up signing Luis Ayala to a $1.3M deal that is apparently not guaranteed. It is completely unclear how Ayala will improve the late inning relief […]
I said two weeks ago they should re-sign Reyes. So why hasn’t it happened yet?
Livan and Eddie G. signed minor league deals. Lamb and Everett realized they weren’t in for a huge payday, so they signed for less early on. Reyes likely would have found a home if he’d started out asking for 1M.
“I said two weeks ago they should re-sign Reyes. So why hasn’t it happened yet?”
You didn’t say it to the right people?
A high placed source with the Diamondbacks tells me that the Twins are making a strong push for a sign and trade deal for Orlando Hudson.
Ok, so I made that up. I just wish I could break a cool story once…and I definitely would like to say I talked to a “high placed source” for a baseball team…or Playboy! (Hugh is awesome)
sign reyes good insurance, breslow has had limited success and mijares only has a handful of games so who knows what might happen with him. can always let him start in aaa and then have options as the season goes on. sign and trade for cruz including humber who has no spot and the bullpen should be very much improved with mijares and boof as fall backs if boof gets healthy.
sane, add Mornoe to the list of people who have jobs
Reyes saved some games along the way.
Remember the game he threw two pitches and got the win?
Losing Korecky and boof being hurt throws a wrench in that though.
Boof maybe. But I don’t think Korecky had any place in the long term plans that didn’t have start with “if the following guys are hurt…”
from MLBTRADERUMORS:
“Dodgers GM Ned Colletti has ongoing talks for free agent second baseman Orlando Hudson. Today, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports says the Dodgers appear to be the front-runner for Hudson”
MARSHALL:
Good idea! Check this out.
Crede looks pretty good in a Twin’s uniform:
Interesting about Ayala’s contract… esp. based on the fact that he would lose a chunk of ST pitching for Mexico in the WBC. He really has to perform before he goes to the WBC and hope that someone like Bonser or Humber or Mijares or Delaney are not lights out while he is at the WBC…
Thrylos,
It also leaves a more realistic possibility that something could be worked out with Cruz if the rules are indeed changing. It seemed hard for me to believe they would keep both Cruz and Ayala in that situation since they have Boof and Humber without options.
Why waste their money on Reyes? Breslow and Mijares are sufficient. Reyes is washed up. His era last year is proof positive why era for relief pitchers is totally misleading and irrelevant.
“He really has to perform before he goes to the WBC”
That’s a good barometer of Ayala’s ability to pitch in pressure situations.
“Get the hitters out, or go hungry!”
I’ve seen that “Looks good in a Twins uniform” line now on the last four or five blog entires I’ve read…each time the exact same comment, with the exact same Youtube link.
But from like 5-6 different names.
Why do I feel certain that link has NOTIHNG to do with Crede?
This is unrelated to this discussion thread, but the other day in this blog, there was some banter about how a team of Mauers would fare against a team of Adam Dunns. Being an advocate of adding more power to the Twins’ lineup, I found this idea intriguing.
So I decided to use a computer baseball program of mine to create these two teams based on the players’ 2008 statistics. There is a function in the program that allows you to create players using batting, pitching, and fielding stats. And it allows you to clone any player as many times as you wish.
So, while my wife was out the other night, I created 13 Mauers and 13 Dunns. The initial player of each was based on their actual position in 2008 and gave me a fielding rating for each. Mauer was near the top grade for catchers, so I generally assigned his 12 clones to a similar rating for the other fielding positions. Same with Dunn’s clones (not good in the field).
In order to see how their teams would actuall fare during a season, I had to create 12 other teams in order to play an American League season (replete with DH). So I created 12 Twins pitchers from 2008 and cloned them for all 14 teams. These were Baker, Liriano, Slowey, Perkins, Blackburn, Bonser, Breslow, Crain, Guerrier, Mijares, Reyes, and Nathan.
Then I picked players from the other AL teams to clone as their teams’ representatives. I tried to come up with a mixture of good all-around players and some that are the subjects of much discussion in these blogs. Since Dunn was an NL player, I assigned him to Toronto. Mauer represented the Twins.
The rest were:
Baltimore–Markakis (an approach to finding a compromise between Mauer and Dunn)
Boston–MVP Pedroia
New York–Jeter (fairly similar to Mauer)
Tampa Bay–Bartlett
Chicago–Crede
Cleveland–Peralta
Detroit–Granderson
Kansas City–Jose Guillen
Los Angeles–V. Guerrero
Oakland–Punto (had to include him to see how he would compare and stuck Oakland with him)
Seattle–Beltre
Texas–Josh Hamilton
Then I assigned the same automated manager to each team so that they would all be managed as close to modern managing styles as the game will allow.
All of this setting up took a couple of hours. That includes preparing a schedule of 162 games for each team. Once all that is done, it only takes the computer about 20 minutes to play the entire season.
The results were very interesting. How did the Mauers compare to the Dunns? The Mauer Twins won 103 games and won their division by 10 games. The Dunn Blue Jays lost 96 games and finished last, 35 games behind. The Twins’ 103 wins were the highest in the league. The second highest were, surprisingly, the Markakis Orioles with 101 wins. Pedroia’s Red Sox won 98 and the Wild Card berth (no, I’m not running a playoff). The Hamilton Rangers were the best in the West with 91 wins. Both the Bartlett Rays and the Punto A’s won 70 and lost 92–Oakland being last in their division. The worst team in the league? The Crede White Sox with only 47 wins and 115 losses.
As expected, the Dunns dominated the homerun leaders. One of the Mauers won the batting title with Pedroia a close second. In fact, the Mauers and Pedroias were almost the entire top ten in batting with Hamilton sneaking in 10th (he also crept into the top ten homerun leaders). Bartlett was basically a .270 hitter with a couple of homeruns. The Credes averaged around .250 with 25 homeruns. Dunn was a .240 hitter with an average in the 40’s in homers–with a couple of clones hitting in the 50’s. Mauer averaged in the .325 range with 15 homeruns (one of the clones hit 19 with a .365 average!). Punto was actually slightly better than Bartlett both in average and power.
How did Mauer and Dunn do head-to-head? The Twins beat the Blue Jays 8 out of 10. They made hay on Chicago and Kansas City going 16-2 and 15-3, respectively. The Jays’ best record was also against the White Sox going 7-3. Who did the Mauers have the most trouble with? Markakis beat them 8 out of 10. The Mauers split 10 games with the Hamilton Rangers.
Pitching was pretty ugly given the emphasis on hitting and no variety of hitters to even things out. So I won’t go into that.
What does all this mean? Absolutely nothing. It is just a computer simulation of an interesting theory. While the program factors in fatigue and injuries, it can’t really match what happens in human terms. It can only produce results based on a given set of statistics. Everyone pretty much performed as they did during 2008, when you average all the clones out.
I just thought it was a cool idea and thought it would be fun to test it out. It doesn’t mean that an advocate of power-hitting is wrong in their advocacy. Nor does it mean that an advocate of gap hitting and plate patience is right in their advocacy. It takes a variety of talents to win a championship in real life. Would the Twins win 103 games with 13 Joe Mauers? Maybe. Maybe not. Would they win less if they had 12 Joe Mauers and 1 Adam Dunn? Interesting question. Maybe that will be the next replay.
Sorry for being so long-winded. Just thought some of you would enjoy the experiment.
rpar,
Like I’m even gong to read that.
rpar,
“So, while my wife was out the other night, I created 13 Mauers and 13 Dunns.”
Your wife should provide closer supervision. (:
Wow! rpar has a lot of time on his hands.
I think that indicates that the Twins COULD use a “right-handed Mauer” or SEVEN of them.
rpar,
did you use baseball mogul to run the simulation? If yes, I have a couple more questions 
Good idea, but you got to run these simulations about 100 times and average the records for the teams to add significance to your findings.
rpar…. what game was it and on what platform…?
rpar,
your an idiot. Who gives a sh–.
Sadly, Sane, she is almost as big a baseball nut as I am and an eternal optimist about the Twins. She is a saint in tolerating my hobbies.
theborch,
“your an idiot.”
Anyone else find this ironic?
Get Crede and Cruz. Lets make an impact and improve the team.
AaronK,
Just because someone kant spell doesnt mean their an idiot.
Thrylos and Ross–the game was the computerized version of a popular board game called APBA. It is a version for PCs; I don’t know if they make a Mac version.
I actually don’t pretend to be a quality speller…but I also don’t go around calling people idiots.
theborch,
“Get Crede and Cruz. Lets make an impact and improve the team.”
your an idiot. Who gives a sh–.
AaronK:
theborch,
“your an idiot.”
Anyone else find this ironic?
Love it!
your an idiot. Who gives a sh–.
A shoe? A shingle? A ship?
What are you looking to get? I can only give so much!
rpar, interesting way of doing it. But why include other teams like that?
Aren’t there simulators that predict how many runs a team made up of one player would score?
That would give you the O side. I believe there are also simulators for how many more runs bad D allows. That would give you the D side.
Actually simulating pitching contests and games doesn’t tell you much. Too many other variables are brought into the equation. You lose your “control” group too much (not that you had a control group, but you do add more variables).
Any way, interesting analysis and read.
your, you’re whatever…..
rpar,
You should also have put Dunn in the AL Central. Comparing the Mauers’ record to a Dunn team in the east is unfair. In fact, you should probably have made two leagues, one where the Twins are a team of Mauers and another where they’re Dunns.
That said, it looks safe to assume that 7 more right-handed Mauers would be much better than all the Dunns in the world.
What the hell is a borch?
“I ate too many chili-dogs and had to borch”
A shoe? A shingle? A ship?
a shortstop; this is a baseball blog after all, right? 
Rpar,
Ok, now do Buscher/Harris against Crede.
Oh yea, and Young vs. Cuddyer
Those are good ideas, Des, but next time the wife is gone, rpar, you got to get out of the house, buddy! ! !
La Velle,
great video coverage. Have the film guys keep the camera on you as ur ending instead of ur voice trailing to a dark screen.
production guys!!
Win Twins!
get Crede in!
Senor, he said his wife was a big fan also so I figured one could take Buscher/Harris vs Crede and the other could take Young/Cuddyer. I am very free with other people’s time. Should I admit that while he was busy with quantum statistics and analysis I was watching a Family Guy marathon?
One episode of “Family Guy” is a marathon for me.
Agreed, Senor. I appreciate the other ideas on how the comparison could be set up and run…but I don’t plan on doing it again. It was just a fun thing to try…once.
Yet another slow news day.:-(
Crede, Cruz.
Do something
I like your last idea, Greg! Check this out! I slapped it together for fun with photoshop or something to get a smile out of bloggers. Crede looks pretty good in a Twin’s uniform:
Gosh, I’d like Cruz.
OK here it is: We’d like him but don’t want to give up a first round pick. The D’backs would love a first and a second round pick but are going to have to settle for less. If they approve a sign-and-trade exception, the Twins will get out-bid. You can’ trade draft picks.
Presuming no sign-and-trade.
We sign Cruz and simultaneously trade with the D’backs. We get a player that is a near-equivalent to a first round draft pick for some spare part.
We end up with Cruz and a significant prospect. We lose a first round pick and a spare part. The D’backs get first and second round picks and a spare part for a significant prospect.
Win-win?
Jon-
Are you out of your mind? What did you put in your pipe this morning? You call someone who wants to get Crede and Cruz and idiot?! Both would improve the team tremendously. You have to be insane not to want either of them, especially Cruz. I hate it when Twins fans like you agree with the front office when they clearly aren’t actively trying to improve the team. I mean, they came into the offseason with two goals: improve in the bullpen and at third base. Neither has happened. We passed up Casey Blake and now we won’t get the damn deal done with Crede. We also passed up several cheap relief options and ended up with a mediocre Luis Ayala. What is Bill Smith’s goal?! He should actually DO SOMETHING and try to get this team better. Apparently you, Jon, are content with just competing every year, but never going for it all. Great. I’m sure you could get a job “working” under Bill Smith.
Heinie,
why would the Diamondbacks want to do that? If the Twins sing Cruz they get the picks anyways…
Right on Marshall.
I’m notsane and I want both players!
*hands Marshall a valium.
Here, take one of these and step away from the ledge.
I believe the reference to “the borch” being an “idiot” has to do with him not even being able to type “your an idiot” with “you’re” instead of “your”… suggesting that if one is going to question someone else’s intelligence, you might want to pass a 2nd grade English class first. Suggesting that the Twins could find a use for both Crede and Cruz is hardly controversial… or even original.
It just seems that all the chagrin directed at the FO could wait a few weeks until we see how things work out.
Is Danny Graves still in the system?
It just seems that all the chagrin directed at the FO could wait a few weeks until we see how things work out.
People been signin’ THAT song since October, Jim.
thrylos, I can think of a couple of reasons they might consider some kind of creative solution. First, If they could get the Twins (or someone else) to hand over someone who’s already demonstrated some proficiency in a season or two of A-ball, it might be better than risking mega-bucks on a HS outfielder, and second, as LEN points out, if Cruz decides to wait until June, the DBacks get squat.
Marshall, no one “wants to get Crede and Cruz and idiot[.]” In other words, Marshall, no one wants an idiot; heck, there are enough of them on this blog.
You and Borch are the idiots.
Or as the two of you might write it:
‘Were idiots.’
Those contractions and articles sure do confuse some guys.
People been signin’ THAT song since October, Jim.
Comparred to the tune sung by some people regarding the FO in general since….
Chief, I know… and I got a bit bent out of shape when there was no interest shown in Wigginton, too.
But the season hasn’t even started yet. You don’t know who’s going to perform well in ST and who isn’t… and who’s going to pull up lame. Just sayin’ there’s something to be said for seeing where your biggest problems are when the season gets going, rather than guessing now.
I’d like to get Crede, for a reasonable deal. I’d like to get Cruz, for a reasonable deal. But if reasonable deals aren’t there, I’m ok with waiting to see where problems arise when you can base decisions on actual current performance and not projections.
(chief, that should be “singing”. you don’t know who “your” dealing with here.)
evrywon on hear is a ideut!
JC,
ok. Let’s say that the Twins are trading Humber to Arizona (gotta get that roster situation taken care of) for a ‘highly rated prospect’. Given the restriction that you cannot trade prospects selected in 2008 and the fact that the Twins have more OF prospects that they really know what to do, Arizona’s best prospects that fit the bill are:
Jarrod Parker (RHP, practically untouchable, future ace potential with ETA 2009/10)
Cesar Valdez, (RHP, think Mulvey)
Tony Barnette, (RHP, think Humber)
Barry Enright, (RHP, think Duensing but righty)
other than Parker, who is not going anywhere, do you think that the Twins will practically trade a 1st round draft pick and Humber for Cruz and one of these pitchers? Maybe, but I see it hard to imagine.
Good time for an idiot joke. Found this Sports Entrance Exam:
UNIVERSITY ENTRANCE EXAM
SEC FOOTBALL PLAYER VERSION
(Time Limit: 3 Weeks)
1. What language is spoken in France?
2. Give a dissertation on the ancient
Babylonian Empire with particular
reference to architecture, literature,
law and social conditions
-OR-
give the first name of Pierre Trudeau.
3. Would you ask William Shakespeare to:
(a) build a bridge
(b) sail the ocean
(c) lead an army or
(d) WRITE A PLAY
4. What religion is the Pope? (please check
only one answer)
(a) Jewish
(b) Catholic
(c) Hindu
(d) Polish
(e) Agnostic
5. Metric conversion. How many feet is
0.0 meters?
6. What time is it when the big hand is
on the 12 and the little hand is on the 5?
7. How many commandments was Moses given?
(approximately)
8. What are people in America’s far north
called?
(a) Westerners
(b) Southerners
(c) Northerners
9. Spell — Bush, Carter and Clinton
10. Six kings of England have been called
George, the last one being George the
Sixth. Name the previous five.
11. Where does rain come from?
(a) Macy’s
(b) a 7-11
(c) Canada
(d) the sky
12. Can you explain Einstein’s Theory
of Relativity?
(a) yes
(b) no
13. What are coat hangers used for?
14. The Star Spangled Banner is the National
Anthem for what country?
15. Explain Le Chatelier’s Principle of
Dynamic Equilibrium
-OR-
spell your name in BLOCK LETTERS.
16. Where is the basement in a three story
building located?
17. Which part of America produces the
most oranges?
(a) New York
(b) Florida
(c) Canada
(d) Wisconsin
18. Advanced math.
If you have three apples how many apples
do you have?
19. What does NBC (National Broadcasting Corp.)
stand for?
oops, sorry. that was a little longer than i thought!
Marshall,
Calling theborch an idiot had nothing to do with his 10:58AM post. (Cruz and Crede). It was a reply to his (first) 10:56AM post.
theborch says:
at 10:56 am
“rpar,
your an idiot. Who gives a sh-.”
theborch says:
at 10:58 am
“Get Crede and Cruz. Lets make an impact and improve the team”
jon says:
11:02 am
“theborch,
“Get Crede and Cruz. Lets make an impact and improve the team.”
“your an idiot. Who gives a sh–.”
theborch called rpar an “idiot” and I was just returning his EXACT insult.
I like Crede and Cruz!
On the other hand, theborch is an idiot!
Baseball has dealt in absolutes for so long that now this new wrinkle in the concept of sign and trades is going to be a little slower than we’d like. Expect if we can get a Juan Cruz or a Orlando Hudson kind of guy it’s going to take days to a week maybe longer.
1st, we have to get the clarifications… then the agents have to discuss it with the players, then the the trade offer has to be sent, reworked 30 different ways from Sunday to see how much, and whom they can get for the prized Cruz. Then with physicals, and everything… the earliest I would believe we could see a guy like Cruz in a Spring Training uniform would be about 9 to 16 days from now if the clarification came in today. (and I pray to GOD that I am being too conservative and we can have him here by Saturday)
Not knowing anything about those guys besides what you put in parens, it’s tough for me to say. You may be right that it’s “hard to imagine.”
My point is simply that Arizona does have at least some motivation to consider creative alternatives.
To be honest, it’s harder for me to imagine the Twins being likely to think “creatively” than it would be for me to imagine the DBacks being receptive to it.
Marshall,
Now, if you don’t understand my 12:58 PM post, then you (and theborch)are both………never mind!
Danny Graves signed with Houston, I believe.
rpar - I enjoyed that… that’s a lot of work and reading, but I definitely get the idea and it makes a lot of sense. Maybe instead of filling teams with other players, do a team of Mauer, team of Morneau, team of Kubel, team of Gomez, Young, Cuddyer, Harris, etc.
And I believe as well that you’d have to do multiple simulations to get a better feel for the average.
Oh, and maybe instead of just focusing on 2008 numbers, use career lines, or past three seasons, or something of that nature.
Love what you did, stuff like that makes me just think of other things too.
I seriously think that the Twins could offer a couple of B-level pitching prospects, and a guy like Catcher Jair Fernandez. That could be a way to get Cruz and Hudson.
I know I’m being ridiculous about wanting Hudson, but damn it I really want Orlando Hudson and Juan Cruz on this team. We could go back to the end of October, early Nov when all of this started. It’s incredible that the Twins still have a shot at getting the players I wanted. We never get those kinds of guys.
But this whole “hope” thing is kind of painful… It’s much easier to just get mad at Bill Smith for not doing what I want, lol. But I’m trying.
LaVelle (if you’re out there somewhere):
David O’Brien is catching a load of crap over having written that a “close friend” of Griffey’s had said that Junior was going to sign with the Braves… only to see him sign with the M’s instead. There’s been speculation that Griffey and his agent were so upset about O’Brien’s release of the information that it factored in to him signing elsewhere.
Setting aside how stupid that would be… is this scenario, where the writer is at least accused of having cost a team the services of a player by prematurely writing about it as much of a nightmare scenario as it seems like it would be?
Being a former journalism major myself, it would be interesting to get the perspective of current sportswriters, in this day of blogs and websites and the corresponding pressure to be “first” with a story, concerning how the standards for what constitutes sufficient credible sources before a story is put out for public consumption.
Sorry for the interruption of the regular name-calling and hand-wringing… we can all go back to being “idiots” now.
Comparred to the tune sung by some people regarding the FO in general since….
Good point. Some people complain about the front office doing nothing…which constitutes an excuse for the front office doing nothing.
[…] Twins Insider – […]
“I seriously think that the Twins could offer a couple of B-level pitching prospects, and a guy like Catcher Jair Fernandez. That could be a way to get Cruz and Hudson.”
And you “SERIOUSLY THINK” that that is the best offer that the D-Backs could get?
You aren’t being “seriously” serious.
I don’t disagree that other teams would be interested in talking to Arizona about Cruz/Hudson if some kind of “sign and trade” process is allowed. But let’s not kid ourselves about how many potential partners are out there.
Sure, there are a lot of teams that would be willing to cough up some minor league talent for the “trade” part of the deal, but how many organizations have the money left in their budgets for the “sign” part?
If either player was willing to sign for peanuts, they’d be signed by now, draft-pick compensation or not (especially Hudson… Cruz, as a RP, has less negotiating room).
I suspect that if someone were to make a list of teams that (a) need the help at their specific positions and (b) have payroll room to accommodate the players’ expectations, it’s a pretty short list. Not as short as the list gets when you factor out teams that aren’t willing to give up a #1 pick, of course, but it’s not like there’s going to be 20 teams all of sudden interested in a “sign and trade” deal for either guy, either.
Some people complain about the front office doing nothing…
Rather, some people complain about the front office doing “nothing” when in reality they forget that it takes two to dance.
Unless you think getting Beltre or Atkins is as easy as knocking on the door and asking “Pretty please”.
It takes two to hit or pitch also, yet we judge hitters and pitchers. why can’t we judge a GM on whether or not he can successfully make trades?
If the Twins are seriously interested in Hudson or Cruz, forget the whole ’sign and trade’ nonsense.
Just step up to the plate, bite the bullet and forfeit the draft pick(s), and sign them as free agents.
I doubt they’re seriously interested in either player, though, whether it be ’sign and trade’ or not.
Not that I’d be opposed to either scenario.
And before the whole Crede thing gets brought up…they also forget signing FAs isn’t as easy as saying: “Here’s a contract. Thanks!”
There’s that whole negotation and insanely overvaluing oneself to consider as well.
Or when you’ve got a guy that’s “The Answer” at 3B, but can’t find a home until somebody offers him a job at 1B.
The problem is, people here tend to judge the success of a trade based on whether we got Ted Williams in return for a bag of balls. Every trade has to pay off in an all-star performance in return for a guy that immediately falls in to obscurity. The standards are rediculous.
Not to mention, sometimes the most successful trade decisions are the decisions NOT to make a trade… and you don’t know how many of those are made so you’re judging based on seeing less than half the data.
BC,
“I seriously think that the Twins could offer a couple of B-level pitching prospects, and a guy like Catcher Jair Fernandez. That could be a way to get Cruz and Hudson.”
I think I understand why you don’t respect Bill Smith.
It must be because he is unable to pull off the trades in real life, that you pull off in your imagination.
For Bill Smith to pull off your suggested trade, he would have to:
1) hypnotize the D-Backs GM.
2) make him quack like a duck to prove he is in a trance.
3) make the deal
4) run like a rabbit to the parking lot
5) clear the deal with the commisioner’s office, before the D-Back’s GM regains his senses.
Some people also ignore the first year of a trade, as if that year doesn’t somehow count (or ignore the first two months of the season, because someone is a slow starter - I think the games in April and May count).
Trading Santana for (so far) 1 year of a CF that can’t hit (but can field) and nothing else so far, is not a good trade. That can change if Gomez learns how to get on base, or one of the pitchers is actually a starter….
That’s a horrible comparison mww.
A hitter and a pitcher need each other to build statistics.
A pitcher can throw balls all day…but he’s not going to build any stats unless there’s a hitter at the plate to do something with the pitch.
Likewise, a hitter can’t do squat until a pitcher tosses a ball their way.
And when it comes to “judging hitters and pitchers”…it happens all the time. Look at when a pitcher crosses over from NL to AL. What’s one of the first things people will say?
“Yes, but how will he fair against the DH?”
Or how hitters are sometimes judged by their Home/Road splits. Or their stats vs. righties/lefties.
A GM can’t “make” a player agree to any contract…nor can they “make” a team agree to a trade.
If you look at Smith in a vacuum and say “Well he didn’t get Beltre or Atkins!” then you’re leaving out the fact that the asking price for either player was considerably higher than anybody felt was worth investigating.
If you consider “He didn’t sign Wiggy or Crede (yet)” without the rest of the facts…you leave out the part where Wiggy didn’t even wind up playing 3B once he signed. Or the fact that Crede was asking more guaranteed than guys like Abreu and about as much as guys like Burrell.
I think the “run like a rabbit” part is the most unlikely step.
The Santana deal was not a trade.
It was an extortion by Santana that was perpetrated on the Twins,
But, if he’s a good negotiator, he can get more deals done (just like a salesperson can’t MAKE someone buy something, but some people sure are convincing).
If he never does any transaction other than drafting players, and the team does not get better, will you judge him? Why? You don’t know for sure if he could have made a trade or not.
All human interactions (except those involving force) involve some level of cooperation from others. Some people are realy, realy good at getting other people to do things (leaders), some aren’t. The question is, can Smith convince FAs to come here? Can he make deals with other teams that make the Twins better or not? If not, then he probably won’t be successful.
Some people also ignore the first year of a trade
And that group is far smaller (and far less vocal) than the group that determines a player is an aboslute bust, and that they will never amount to anything ever based only on the first half of the season.
Book it.
Upon signing either Hudson or Cruz, the D-backs would need to clear a 40-man roster spot. In a sign a trade scenario, I would expect the D-backs to require additional compensation for this loss… on top of that already discussed here.
I agree with that. Patience is not one of our collective virtues. I’m somewhat guilty myself, but as you’ll hopefully recall, nearly all of my posts on Young are about his performance last year, not about how good he’ll be in the future (though I have my doubts about his ability to start hitting the ball in the air, he wouldn’t be the first to learn to do taht).
But, if he’s a good negotiator, he can get more deals done
Untrue. If he’s a good negotator…he’ll get deals done ON HIS TERMS.
Signing Crede to 7 mil with 4 mil worth of incentives would NOT be a good negotiator.
We’ll disagree on that. If he can never get a deal done on his terms, then he’s not a good negotiator. If it always comes down to “the other side wanted too much”, then he’s just not an effective negotiator.
Some people complain about the front office doing nothing…
….most of the rest just complain
Could be worse, they could have just dealt McCants for Williams. I mean, there’s a front office that does stuff to do stuff (and usually does it wrong).
JimCrikket, I’m with you in hoping the Twins are at least engaging in conversations with Arizona. If Arizona will scoop up such prizes as Augie Ojeda, Alex Romero, and Bobby Korecky off the Twin’s scrap heap, we ought to have something else for them. It will be an interesting couple of days here, I think.
Detroit’s GM made a whole buttload of deals last year so was obviously good at closing the deal whether free agent or trade. When he was done the Tigers were favored by many “experts” to win it all. Do you judge him by expectations or results? He got the deals done but his team came in last. Twins were picked for last but tied for first. My general impression is that fans thought Smith did a poor job. If the Twins win it all are you going to say he did a poor job because he did not get any deals done or that they won despite his performance, or are you going to say ” I guess he knew what he was doing by having faith in the team to grow and perform”?
Who judges the judges?
mww, one of the oddities here is that some of those early and harsh judges of Smith’s performance are the same people who claim it necessary to evaluate a player’s performance over several seasons. They’re willing to turn in a final grade on Smith. Ohers, like myself, think his early test results are mediocre at best, but more tests will be taken before a final grade is warranted.
Who judges the judges?
The Watchmen?
I judge the judges and they are judging at a D+. The same grade given to Alex Romero the day the D-backs claimed him from us.
2009 Projections:
Busch 6 HRs, Harris 11 HRs, combined: average .275, OPS .725, RBIs 85, and a bonus of 10 to 15 SBs. These numbers are realistic. So, Why would we pay $7M for an incremental increase in these stats, except for HRs, unless the 7 to 10 more HRs Crede may hit are worth about $500K or so per HR, but this comes with his many more Ks than would have the ‘combo’ boys.
This is a no-brainer - don’t sign Crede for more than $2M guaranteed.
Senor Sweat,
Boy oh boy. Question 8 is really tough - for a Canadian. Wouldn’t Canadians refer to most Americans as southerners?
I’m still working on the other questions, but it takes a lot of thinking.
Maybe Marshall and Borch (does it ryhme with porch?) know the answers.
Bird: I’m not ready to judge smith yet. But, I’m not thrilled with what he’s done so far. I’d say a GM should get 3-5 years before you can judge him accurately. Now, some might be so good or bad that you can judge them quicker, but most people are close to the median, so it’s harder to tell.
Des: great question. I’ll judge smith on wins and losses. I think I said earlier that not only is it about getting deals done, but about getting the right deals done.
T: great answer.
Because some of of our friends here are such uncanny experts, Des, they are comfortable passing judgment on the FO any time there appears to be a disagreement with their opinion by virtue of a non-deal. For example, Chief is pretty cock-sure that the Twins should give up 1st round draft picks and sign Cruz and Hudson now, to expensive and lengthy contracts. Perhaps the FO disagrees.
Well said Des. As fans, and human beings for that matter, we tend to want what we don’t have. When we examine our current players, we know exactly what their strengths and weaknesses are. For whatever reason, we tend to focus on the weaknesses. When considering potential free agents, we only know aspects about them and tend to grab hold of the positive characteristics, not the potential negatives. These players are a shiny new toys and have to be better than our old, flawed ones.
I don’t want to spoil it for everyone, but all of these potential free agents come with loads of negatives. If they didn’t, the wouldn’t be available. I’m not saying it’s not possible to improve through free agency. I’m just saying that I trust the Twins front office to dispassionately evaluate our current players and potential free agents and make the right decision. Come October, we’ll find out if they made the right decision or not. It’ll be a fun ride, that’s for sure.
should the twins clam Andy Marte
Indians Acquire Salas, Designate Marte
By Tim Dierkes [February 19, 2009 at 2:23pm CST]
According to MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince, the Indians acquired reliever Juan Salas from the Rays today for infielder Isaias Velasquez. The Tribe designated onetime top prospect Andy Marte for assignment to make room.
Salas, 30, posted a 2.62 ERA in 44.6 Triple A innings last year with excellent strikeout and walk numbers. Salas’ history includes a PED suspension, a falsified birth date, and a conversion from third base.
I’m glad you and others enjoyed it, Seth. Thank you. My apologies for making it so lengthy.
As a recap, what has BS been responsible for?
D. Young/Garza trade
Santana trade
several BAD signings, Livan/Everett/Lamb
LNP overpaying?
Obviously it is too early to judge, but only because hindsight is always 20/20 and we don’t know the future of Garza, Guerra, Gomez, or even Punto for that matter. However, it’s certainly fair to provide an assessment based on what we currently know now… even if we are not privy to all the information. Who says our opinions in a blog must be valid (impossible to validate at this point) or legitimate (this would be reserved for scouts, GM’s, coaches).
melshmeister,
“Who says our opinions in a blog must be valid (impossible to validate at this point) or legitimate (this would be reserved for scouts, GM’s, coaches).”
Many will disagree with your last statement. Others will think the Livan signing was GOOD, not bad. These things are fun to debate. The fact that they’re debatable should clarify for us that we really don’t know jack borch about it all. That’s why the ultimate measurement of the Gm is probably W_L records relative to consensus pre-season expectations.
For example, Chief is pretty cock-sure that the Twins should give up 1st round draft picks and sign Cruz and Hudson now, to expensive and lengthy contracts.
Where, exactly, did Chief say any of that?
Chief said IF the Twins are interested in Cruz or Hudson, they should forget some complicated ’sign and trade’ scenario and simply sign them as free agents.
Chief also said he doubts the Twins are seriously considering either route, and that he wouldn’t be opposed to either route.
I am pretty cocksure, however, that the Chief strenously opposes having someone invent positions for him.
“Who says our opinions in a blog must be valid….or legitimate (this would be reserved for scouts, GM’s, coaches).
I assure you, only my OPINION is illegitimate.
No, we should not claim Andy Marte. He is aloof and has little sense of pride in his game.
At least Randy Ruiz cared about swinging the bat, but he was let go because he gave no effort what-so-ever to becoming someone that could play in the field 5-10 times a season. Such a pick up would be an indictment on how the Twins sat they play the game.
Not just relative to consensus though. If the Pirates, for example, are picked to be last every year, and they finish 2nd to last, there’s still something wrong with the GM. It’s about improving the team (and this part some will disagree with) and then taking it to the next level when the opportunity arises.
Cruz would improve the chances of winning the division substantially.(remember the 15 blown saves from last year)Give up the draft pick and sign Cruz. But again, Smith worries about a future that never comes. The Twins will never win a championship with Bill Smith as GM
Detroit’s GM made a whole buttload of deals last year so was obviously good at closing the deal whether free agent or trade. When he was done the Tigers were favored by many “experts” to win it all. Do you judge him by expectations or results?
Tampa’s GM made quite a few moves last offseason as well–and followed that up with inseason moves. Would it be fair to include HIM in any judgement of how moves made by a GM can influence the following season?
At the time of the signing, and all through April and May, I thought the Livan signing was a good signing. However, that argument is pretty tough considering he was released, despite a guaranteed salary. But yes, I should have put the Livan signing in a different category as Everett and Lamb… although many believed those were reasonable signings at the time (at least all the Punto haters that expected him to have less than 50 PA’s).
Praying Bird, IRO your 3:56 pm post, amen. This is America - bottom is what counts.
mikewantswins,
I think it depends on the trade (whether to forget about the first year). Trade for a veteran - it better work out. Trade for a 21-22 year old - give it time. Bobby Kielty for Shannon Stewart: there was a trade that needed to pay off right away, or it was a bust. Shannon was an established player, and that’s why the Twins got him (not to say the lost alot by dealing Kielty). Santana for Humber, Mulvey, Gomez: I don’t think the pitching part of the trade was a bust in the first year; all were prospects. Did the Twins really expect them to make an impact? Gomez was obviously obtained with the hope that he would be the everyday centerfielder. But there was still a competition during last year’s spring training for CF.
That last post should read: bottom LINE, except when referring to Jennifer Lopez, of course.
Walter, fair enough. But, you have to put some value on the years where the minor leaguers get you nothing, while Santana is piling up great pitching performances. Those years are worth something in the analysis (just as the Mets must look at the out years, when they don’t have those players). All of those years count. They gave up Santana’s time last year, this year, and the next few years. That time counts in their win loss records. So, ti has to count in evaluating the trade. The opportunity cost of not having Santana in exchange for the future needs to be part of the equation (as does the money).
It’s about improving the team (and this part some will disagree with)
Mike, I might be misreading you here but I don’t think there is anyone disagreeing with the idea of improving the team. I don’t think any blogger or Smith for that matter is thinking “boy, that Crede is really great and our boys really suck. This is a great opportunity but lets just stick with what we have.” I personally lean toward getting him mainly because of defense and power slightly beating out average and OBP. Is that worth 5 or 7 mil? If it was last year and meant 1 game then yes, but who knows?
Jon…
sorry I was with clients… as it was pointed out to me, the Diamond Backs don’t have a lot in the way of leverage on this, and the Twins/other major league teams are the ones that are in more control in this situation because the player themselves has to agree to a potential deal before signing it.
So if the Pirates offer up 10 times more than the Twins, but Juan Cruz doesn’t want to play for the Pirates… the Diamondbacks only option is to let Cruz sit until June, and then they get nothing… meanwhile it’s another chink in the armor of the players agreement with owners… and something that will be fought bitterly over in the next bargaining situation. You can put it on the board as a NO!
So while you think I am being a rube, or a homer fan… I am not… go back in here and see the offer I brought up the other day and see it was told to me that it was FAR TOO MUCH for the Twins to give up. I am far from a homer fan. I am a Twins fan that could find fault in a perfect game, and if they won 105 games… I would complain that they didn’t get to 107. It’s how my nature works. It’s not always fun, but sending a catcher that has an MLB future in 2-3 years along with two pitchers that have potential to reach the majors… that’s 3 players that the Dbacks would get with potential to be with them one day as apposed to the two draft picks that are going to be harder to sign, more expensive, and further away from helping the team… or NOTHING at all.
MWW,
Yes, but it’s a trade off when there’s an age difference between the players. If and when Gomez, et.al. start to perform, most likely, Santana performance will be on the decline. Since the younger players are paid less, even from a PV analysis, these types of deal usually balance out.
Keep in mind the Santana trade can balance out two ways: either more than one of the Gomez et.al. players is/are slightly above-average for several years or just one of them is super, in the class as Santana. In the latter case, the higher salary is deferred, so from performance and monetary aspects, they balance out - hopefully.
Mikewantstowin…
my friend… that is an excellent way of putting it… what is the value of the years we lose in Santana? I have been complaining about that trade, and unable to put my finger on a good way of getting my point across without coming across as I was just bitter and angry… and while I admit I am bitter and angry… I am not just bitter and angry… and to those people that can’t tell… I am smiling as I say this… hoping the humor comes through a little bit.
Any chance the Twins take a flier on Andy Marte who was just DFA’d by Cleveland? I realize he has been a complete failure at the major league level, but he is a 24/5 year old 3B who was an incredibly highly rated prospect. Right-handed, showed power in the minors…I think he is out of options, so nothing to lose…
Just a thought.
Would it be fair to include HIM in any judgement of how moves made by a GM can influence the following season?
Might as well consider ALL of them instead of cherry picking.
Detroit’s an exampe of how spending money and throwing prospects at teams can fail pretty miserably.
Just like Tampa Bay (which didn’t do anything “groundbreaking” save for Young/Garza) shows that it doesn’t take earth shattering signings or moves to get the job done.
BC,
But that offer is so weak, it would certainly be topped easily by a team that Cruz and Hudson would prefer rather than the Twins. Somewhere amongst the 29 other MLB teams, that team DOES exist, I am sure.
and that he wouldn’t be opposed to either route.
So you have no stance. Gotchya.
The Twins consider Reyes to be cheap Mexican labor. They would never pay him what he is worth.
Des, I did a bad job there. That parenthetical was to be about the “going for it” part, not the first part of that sentence.
Every year there are examples of teams that made deals and didn’t get better, and teams that stood pat, and didn’t get better. There are also examples of the opposites. It is about doing both well, filling in the holes the right way, and having less holes because you drafted and developed well.
Niether is the only “right” way.
Any analysis of the Santana trade has to take into account the fact that he was unlikely to be with the team after 2008. It’s difficult to put a value on the two draft picks the Twins would have received, so I won’t even try.
USA, of course it would be fair to include them as another scenario. I know my bias was showing in the question. I could have cited the Rays or Angels as teams that were successfull making moves and the Pirates unsuccessfull making none. It seemed more relevant to go with what I did because the Twins are our focus. It was more rhetorical anyway. The GM has no control over how the players perform. Should Smith get credit for a good season where he did not make a lot of moves? Should Detroit GM be judged a failure for making moves that ended poorly?
Well put Mike.
T,
According to the players last spring, and throughout the season they kept coming back to how the clubhouse, and how the team in general were better without Delmon Young and Elijah Dukes. I am sure that some of it is overrated, and some of it may very well be that veteran players didn’t like the way that management bent over backwards and ignored the attitude problems of those players as apposed to treating the guys like Crawford and Kazmir with the respect that they felt they deserved? Part of this is pure speculation, and the other is stuff that I was able to pick up from a couple of contected people in Tampa… “Delmon’s unwillingness to embrace WE, and Dukes inabiltiy to spell WE” were the exact words used.
Re: Santana… what’s with the use of the plural when referring to the service time given up by the Twins? “They gave up Santana’s time last year, this year, and the next few years.” and “what is the value of the years we lose in Santana?”
The Twins gave up ONE year of Santana’s service… at most. Unless you truly believe he WANTED to stay in Minnesota AND that the Twins should have shelled out $25mm per year for multiple years to keep him beyond 2009. Personally, I think he made it abundantly clear he wanted to play in a big market.
I’m just saying that when you go to compare what the Twins ultimately get in terms of functional major league service out of Gomez, Humber, Mulvey and Guerra (or whoever they may ultimately be flipped for in further trade), you need to balance it against one year of Santana because that’s all the Twins were going to get if they hadn’t made a trade.
In other words, the question is, would you rather have those 4 guys now… or not have them now but have a couple of extra draft picks in June?
should the twins clam Andy Marte
Let’s see: a guy that was rushed like crazy in the Braves’ system ans made the majors at 21, then kept being rushed in the Indians’ system, who is a 25 year old bonna fide right hand power hitter with a career slash line of .271/.348/.476 in minors and hit 20 or more homeruns in 5 of the last six seasons and was misused by the Indians in the majors…
[sarcasm] Why get him? Buscher is so much better than him [/sarcasm]
jon,
You might be right, but after reading how desperate everyone in baseball is for catchers… and we offer up two pitchers that could make the major leagues… a
Fernandez, Humber, and Oswaldo Sosa for example… I don’t see that as a horrible offer.
So you have no stance. Gotchya.
Well, apparently I do now. bop was kind enough to invent one for me.
JimCrikket
What if that one year of Santana would have provided us with a World Series?
What if by holding out on that trade… calling the agent’s bluff… we find out that Schilling can’t pitch in 2008… or that in May that the Yankees rotation is in shambles?
When you get hypothetical… there is more than black and white…
there could also have been… what if Santana blew out his knee, or his elbow with us, and we were either stuck with him, or knew we couldn’t get anything for him?
It doesn’t just have to be that we trade him, or not… it has to do with a lot more… in the timing of the trade.
Has any Marte advocate actually seen that guy play? He is awful. Awkward and indifferent in the field. Nothing at all resembling a major league bat.
Buscher IS better. Much better.
BC
I agree there are a lot of “what ifs” and hypotheticals. But Santana’s departure after 2008 was an almost certainty.
lets sign kirby puckett
What if that one year of Santana would have provided us with a World Series?
When Santana’s replacements (Livan, then Liriano) started in 2008 the Twins were 21-14. When Santana started in 2007 the Twins were 16-16. In 2008 the Mets were 21-13 when Santana started… Hard to make that argument
Jim, good point. I don’t think they’d have signed him. It’s about one year with the Twins, or those players. At this point, I’m still not in favor of the trade. But, you are likely correct. I don’t see them signing any player for that much money (not even Mauer will get more than 30% of the total payroll).
In 2008 the Mets blew how many wins for Santana?
No one can be sure of any of those 2008 numbers for Santana in terms of translating to Twins wins or losses, nor can we understand what other deals were on the table ever (maybe if smith or someone else writes a book in 20 years).
Marte’s career hitting stats:
513-AB 112-K .211-AVG .265-OBP .337-SLG
I think we coudl pick up kirby puckett for really cheap.
we could have put up with a santana farewell tour like torii’s proclaiming in each visited city how much he likes it and would love to play there. imo torii’s actions had some negative impact on the 07 season. weather santana would have repeated that we’ll never know but he certainly had made it known he wasn’t happy here.
What if they keep Santana, and Span is in Center at the beginnnig of the year? Do they win more or less games? What if they had made one of the proposed Red Sox deals, would they be better off? What if they’d have kept him, and dealt him for something else at the deadline? We don’t know the answer to any of these questions. But, for some of us, it’s fun to speculate.
Thrylos…
If we go simply by statistics sure, but there is more to baseball than just stats as you well know… because if you would have put Santana in instead of Hernandez… the Twins would have won more of those games that were no decisions, and losses for Hernandez because the Mets gave Santana no support early in the season. Also by having Santana… Liriano doesn’t come in to replace him… he comes in to replace Blackburn or Perkins… probably Perkins… putting him in the pen, bolstering the bullpen possibly keeping them from the meltdown that they had. And is an injury a matter of time, or just an unlucky moment? Had Santana been on the roster… maybe a certain sidearmer isn’t pitching the day he blows out his elbow…
do you see what I’m saying though? I am not arguing so much as saying when we are dealing in the realm of WHAT IF… ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE! That is where the fun, and the damnedable missery of life are the heads and tails constantly flipped man…
Most people like to live and not think too deeply about what if… and when they do… they think of what if as something definable… as in either/or… but it’s truly infinite.
I think half of you are morons and half of you know what you are talking about.
Get Crede. At least try to get Cruz.
Trade Thrylos98 for free or something just get rid of him
What kind of book could any twins front office write.
If anything the pages would be blank
what about brad radke?
thrylos you are a MORON
There are more pitchers then Santana in a rotation. In fact last I checked usually there are five. so unless we had five Santanas at one point, I must have missed it. It all depends on how all of them do not just one.
Last I checked baseball was a team sport unless that changed too.
ok morons!!! I say we trade Jared Allen for albert pujols!!!!!
kent hrbeck
It would be nice but I don’t even know if he got surgery yet
forget radke lets get Bert back in the game!!! The man should be in the hall of fame for Christ sake!!! I have seen him beat up Chuck Norris more than once!!!!
what the hell would we do with albert pujols he is just a more expensive, better batting average version of Justin Mornoe.
I say we trade you to the diamond backs with Thrylos
scratch that last line
BC & MWW,
Santana+Mets=NO PLAYOFFS
Twins+Gomez+Humber+Mulvey+Guerra=play-in Loss=NO PLAYOFFS.
Mets sure got the best of that deal.
Regards,
Marte’s career hitting stats:
513-AB 112-K .211-AVG .265-OBP .337-SLG
This is about a third of the story
a. here are Marte’s minor league numbers
.271/.348/.476 .824 OPS
The Indians have a history of rushing promising young players and mistreating them by letting them warm the bench. Usually, when they leave they reach their potential.
Case in point: Brandon Phillips . He left Cleveland also as a 25 year old with numbers very similar to those of Marte.
Then he went to the Reds and the rest is history.
his best season was 2007 .288/.331/.485 with 30 HR and 2006 and 2008 were not that bad (17 and 21 HR)
His career minor slash line was:
.274/.332/.418 (.750 OPS)
Marte has the potential to put much better numbers (esp. power) than Phillips in a new organization.
Claiming him to replace Macri in the 40 man roster and inviting him to ST to see how he does, will be not risky at all…
I say B.C. Beneke is a Genius and I stand by me saying Thrylos is moron
Interesting to judge 1 year by Rays GM, after having a 1-3 draft pick since 1812 or so. Sooner or later they actually had to accumulate enough young talent, or not.
Regards,
yeah
We got prospects that have no where to go but up with the exception of Humber. They got a really good pitcher with no where to go but down I say we won that trade. expecially since the mets could not even crack the play offs
M…
I think that Thrylos is an excellent contributor here. The statistical aptitude is incredible.
But if you are going to be calling people morons…
Just to help you out… it’s Morneau
Boof will not even play this year because of his nagging injury and his nagging mouth. He says he can’t play through the pain. Why are we getting rid of Korecky (A young guy with a strong arm and be it very little at least he has some sort of a glimmer of possible potential) and picking up an old man who went a combined 2-10 with a 5.71 ERA in 81 appearances last year with the Nationals and the Mets(Ayala). Sounds like a good idea. Hey maybe we can get Michael Jordan to put on his cleats again. He is probably more athletic than Boof. Keep Korecky and get rid of Boof. We probably could have saved some money too! Also when did the Twins turn into a softball team? How do they expect to play this year with 15 starting outfielders and no definate starting 3rd baseman? Are they hoping that the teams they play will allow ghost runners and they won’t have to put anybody at 3rd?
We should get barry bonds!
I have to admit you have a point on that last one but on a whole you are still a moron
barry bonds = disaster
Is boof back to being fat like he should be?!
I agree, somewhat,with Kelso
Don’t feed the trolls, BC.
What does it matter if for now he can’t even pitch
Alot of people view the Santana trade as trading away the 3 or 4 best years of Santana’s career for four minor leaguers. I can’t see it that way. I don’t think he was going to stay with the Twins and even if he was, I don’t think the Twins should have paid him the money the Mets are. If you total up the money and divide it by the number of starts you can expect out of Santana (if he stays healthy) it comes out to over $640,000 PER START. If he averages 18 wins a season, they will pay him $1.2M per win. $1.2 million for one win. I can’t believe one player is worth that.
To me the trade was not for the prime years of the best pitcher in baseball (talent-wise, not necessarily outcome-wise) but for the final 34 starts of a most likely tumultous season (and the two draft picks).
ghost runners are faster than gomez I bet!
Dear M. What would we do with Albert Pujols? Pretty sure last I checked Justin Morneou is absolutely no Albert Pujols. Is Justin Morneau the only player to ever hit more than 35 homeruns a season throughout his career? No. Did Justin Morneau have a batting average 57 points higher than Pujols? No. Did Justin Morneau hit 14 homeruns more than Pujols? No. Pujols is probably all around the best hitter in baseball. Yes he would cost more money but I would take him anyday over just about anyone in baseball.
Dragon…
That is too easy man. If we are going to be doing the what if game… I am just trying to say that it’s not black and white. It could be black and white, but why not add color? Why make things so easy?
And for this trade to be successful in my opinion…
Gomez has to mature bigtime, and one of the 3 pitchers has to contribute to this team in 2009 on some level, and by 2011 one of the 4 players had better be an all star calibur player, or 3-4 of them should be contributing to the major league roster.
I will never know how the front office situation worked, but how they could have gotten something together with the Red Sox would have been perfect. But that is in the past… not really important… it’s just that if we are going to talk in the world of what if… it can go anyway we want… HAVE FUN WITH IT!
i would rather have ghost runners than pujols!!!
the yankees are criminals
kent hrbeck
what the hell. quit flip floping, and stand by what you say or don’t say it.
USAChief…
good point… be back in an hour or two.
Ghost runners would rather eat dirty stinky bananas that have been left in office drawers than Kent Hrbeck! Why don’t you go catch some bullheads while taping some poor lit fishing show that will only be shown on some public access channel or something!
Kelso by that I agree but what is the Twins front office going to do with a player who wants a lot of money…. nothing
BC,
Since it’s ALL speculation, I have a whole lot of trouble seeing the 2008 team better than the 2007 team if the Santana and Young/Garza trades had not occured. Even if Hunter was resigned.
You can add Span in CF/LF, but is he worth 11 wins?
IF that speculative team had gotten into a 1 game playoff with Chicago, the outcome would have been the same as Santana would have pitched and given up his “signiture” HR, Game over.
Regards,
BC I know how to spell Morneau.
I have no problem with his statistics I have a problem with some of his opinions
Young hopefully will live up to his offensive expectations and have a break out some time soon
Dragon,
If you had your speculative 2008 team with Santana and Hunter, can you be sure it would have been better than 2007? In 2006, Torii was the reason the Twins clawed back to overtake Detroit on the last day. But he was also the reason they started off the season in a terrible hole and largely responisble for their early exit from the playoffs. Santana and Torii were typical of the entire Twins team. Start slow, be brilliant in the second half, come up short in the playoffs (Santana did the same thing with the Mets last year). People keep complaining that the Twins need to get players that will take them not just to division title but to a World Series. Letting Santana and Hunter go was probably a good start.
The girl with the big hair in the Classmates.com advertisement is HOT!
Walter Johnson,
I thought I said that “I have a whole lot of trouble seeing the 2008 team better than the 2007 team if the Santana and Young/Garza trades had not occured. Even if Hunter was resigned.” Maybe a bit awkwardly put
I agree with your post.
I like the current team, contrary to many here, I expect the youngest team in baseball to grow. How much will be a mystery, AND lead by whom will be fun watching.
My order of steping up is: Young, Slowey, Gomez, Span, Liriano, Buscher (not young…limited experience) Casilla, Blackburn, Perkins.
Regards,
Walter J.
Can she play 3rd base? Even if she could play 3rd, the Twins FO would never sign her if they had to give up a draft pick or prospect.
If she becomes a FA, the Twins would consider signing her for $1M with incentives if she maintains her hot looks while under contract to the Twins.
Dragon,
I like the team. I think that it has a good core that can take it to the near future. (and I pretty much agree with your order of stepping up - with one substitution: Harris for Buscher)
The problem is that there are a couple of holes and there is a 2 year or so span for this team to go all the way with its current core, before players begin to get really expensive and have to go. Can they win it all the next 2 years as are? They could, but I think it will be hard and the stars really have to point their way. Just a little bit of tweaking (like in 87 and 91) would give me more hope…
I agree with thrylos’ last post 100%.
Trade Thrylos98 for free or something just get rid of him
I see Topp Dogg has gotten lazy and shifted to a one letter moniker.
Trylos,
I left Harris out, not for age but experience (I left Baker off as well for same reason). Maybe he should be in, I think Young probably has the most experience BUT qualifys due to inadvanced age.
I think your window is way to short. I think the 4/5 year time frame is more realistic (I am presuming that Mauer gets resigned at least as long as Morneau).
Since I consider the current core M&M and Nathan, AND M&M are approaching their prime. IF the Twins get lucky and 3-5 of this group (including Harris & Baker) step-up to core status, the holes will be obvious. At present, IMHO, there could be as many as 5/6 holes, I think this season, or at least first half will add some clarity whether any or many of this bunch are keepers.
I think we have discussed the 87/91 situation before. I agree additions/tweaks made a difference then, YET we also had a core group who had played together for 3/4 years in 87, and longer in 91.
M&M and Nathan have been together 3/4 years, yet the rest of the young pups, other than Baker, have played together 1 season.
As I have posted before, this is the first time in 50+ years of following this franchise that finances and talent are lining up for a long-term run (8-10 years). Hunter and Santana were out of sync with M&M and Nathan, just reaching their prime, Nathan probably at the peak, in 2/3 years hopefully 2-5 of the young pups approach their prime, there is a pipeline to provide talented inexpensive replacements.
Last year the perceived weak points, proved more solid, and the perceived strengths proved more questionable.
I personally think last years record was a fair representation of the season. I think the breaks broke about even. The effort could have easily have produced 6-8 less wins, AND it could have just as easily produced 6-8 more wins.
I guess in my OLD age, I am finally learning patience, OR maybe it comes from following a fan owned soccer team in SW London, where we started at Level 9 7 years ago (currently top of the Table and could earn 4th promotion in 7 years), and maybe in 10-15 years from now, we will be in the same League as Man United, Liverpool, Arsenal & Chelsea.
Regards,
the dragon
you must of read sporting news this week , about teams that stay together for a long time. i think they call them dynasties. heaven forbid the twins would try and start one of those things. the first player who wanted a raise, would have his head chopped off so fast it would make our own heads spin. they would try and trade him, or her, for prospects so we can start all over again. isnt baseball fun.
Dragon,
I appreciate your train of thought (and there is a good outfield and bullpen pipeline) but I still believe that the window will be smaller that 8-10 years, esp. based on financial considerations.
Lets say that the outfield and first base and DH (they’ll find someone from the minors, Hughes? Paramalee?, when Kubel gets expensive). Middle infield will be fine also. There will be some hard choices down the line among Mauer/Slowey/Liriano/Baker. If they all progress they way they should (or at least they way I hope ) we are looking at $60 mil a year for all 4 of them in 2-3 years. Add the raises for the rest of the team and you are looking at a $110 mil + payroll…
thrylos,
The other piece of my GMship is signing Baker to a 4/5 year $30milish contract this year. Depending on who steps up, next offseason sign Young, Slowey & maybe Liriano & Gomez to similar, and the following offseason take care of the next group.
It adds some certainty, and maybe the payroll doesn’t hit $110 mil until 3rd year in new stadium.
Regards,
Is it true that all AL teams get first shot at waiver claims? If so, Twins are likely to have a good shot at Marte. He supposed to have a good glove, in addition to his stellar minor league track record. Worth a shot.
Also, has anyone actually run the numbers on how much the Twins payroll is likely to rise in the coming years? Going rate for 3 arb years is about $14mm; I would guess we can sign Mauer to a long-term deal at 15-16 per year, etc. Yes, the payroll will be going up, but I don’t think it will really be as quick as people think.
Pass on Reyes…. to many 7th and 8th inning bad memories
Is it true that all AL teams get first shot at waiver claims?
yes (in this case)
same league first and worse record teams (i.e. Mariners) first
mike wants(demands)wins-In regards to your 2:06 post,patience is not one of OUR collective virtues,speak for yourself!
As a whole the twins will have a good year. It most likely won’t be pretty all the way through, but you’ve got to admit you can sense the energy coming from camp too. I hope i’m right when I say this but I think we will get better play out of all the young players even if we have to go with the platoon at third. This year should be much better than last.
m,
Watch your words, optimism is “Verboten” on these blogs.
Regards,
thrylos98’s analysis of Marte is a great example of why I’m always interested in what he has to say. I don’t always agree…but his points are always well thought out. Often times backed up by some kind of statistical analysis I could only dream I’d have the time to dig up, and his points are written well…in other words, I don’t have to GUESS at what he’s talking about. Another example would be BC Beneke…I’m completely at the other end of the political spectrum as BC, and I sometimes grind my teeth when he gets a little snarky or shrill… BUT…you can tell by his posts that BC has followed baseball a long time and he’s passionate about it. Once I get past the politics and imagine I’m sitting next to him at a baseball game just talkin’ baseball…I’m fine, and I can exhale. So, after my rant, I’d rather see O. Hudson at 2B, Casilla at SS and Marte or Harris at 3B than Crede.
I don’t see why the sign and trade is so complicated or why anybody would think the player would have anymore leverage than he normally would have.
The way I see it, the team that is interested would simply would be conducting two negotiations at the same time instead of one. They would negotiate with the player’s agent on a deal they can both live with.
At the same time, the interested team negotiates with the player’s original team regarding the players they would accept in lieu of the compensatory draft picks.
Once an agreement is made with the player AND the player’s original team, the original team sign’s the player to the contract the interested team negotiated, then the trade is completed and the pending physicals are taken.
There is no reason why it should take any longer than any other trade. Not only that, this is the only way I think that a deal like this could possibly be made.
I would also say that I really like the idea of a sign and trade. I would love to see it made permanent. I would also love to see some other rules regarding free agents also added.
I’m a firm believer that teams should be compensated for losing a key player to free agency. I also think Milwaukee and Toronto (or was it the Angels?) got shafted by the Yankees when they lost type A players, but didn’t receive 1st round picks because the Skanks didn’t have anymore to give.
I think that when a team loses a Type A player, they must receive acceptable compensation for the player from the team signing him. The signing team should either have to give up their first round pick, or work out a trade in lieu of giving up a first rounder.
I think that if a team doesn’t have a 1st round pick to give up and can’t work out an in lieu of trade with the player’s original team, then they shouldn’t be allowed to sign the player.
I don’t think the player’s union would go for it, but it could really level the FA playing field and help keep a team like the Yankees from walking all over the rest of major league baseball.
If a team wants to sign several type A’s they would have to save their 1st round pick for a team that they couldn’t work out an in lieu of trade with.
Something like this would also be good for a team that has a high pick they want to keep, but also has their eye on a stud free agent that could really help the team.
Oh, and one last though …
I don’t understand why a sign and trade should affect the sandwich pick. It isn’t costing anybody anything. It will be much easier to deal with a team if they are only giving up their 1st round pick.
A team involved in a sign and trade should still receive their sandwich pick.
