Crede coverage: Day 4
Posted on February 23rd, 2009 – 9:40 AMBy La Velle
But before that….
JUAN CRUZ UPDATE
The Twins, who HAVE made an offer to free agent reliever Juan Cruz, did not speak with Cruz’s agent, Barry Praver, on Sunday like expected. While the sides are expected to continue negotiations this week, indications are that it will be tough for the Twins to agree to terms with Praver AND agree on the players to trade to Arizona.
I’m not predicting that a deal won’t get done but, based on the people I have spoken with, it’s going to be tough. One phone call changes everything. But that phone call had not happened as of last night.
BACK TO CREDE-MANIA!
I was warned that Crede was Jason Kubel-esque - a pleasant fellow who doesn’t say a whole lot. I think Crede will be a little more talkative than Kubel.
In an attempt to make Crede my newest best friend, I started to chat him up about Jefferson City, Mo. ,where he was born. I told him about my career at the Kansas City Star and how I covered high school sports all over the state.
“I think the state basketball tournament used to be there,” I said of Jeff-City, (as Missourians refer to it).
“Yeah, I played against Kareem, Rush there,” Crede said.
That unlocked a good talking point. I covered Kareem’s older brother, JaRon, a little bit when they were at Pembroke Hill high school in Kansas City. We chatted prep hoops for little bit before he was summoned by a media sentinel. So I’m on my way with the new guy…
Anyway, there are some leftover Crede quotes from yesterday I thought you’d like to read:
on not wearing a Sox jersey: “It takes a little bit to get used to. But it’s a good change of scenery and hopefully it’s for the better.”
On getting to know the team: “Yeah, I had a chance to meet Morneau. We were in the same group so we got a chance to joke around. It was a lot of fun. ”
on having any nerves: “You always have nerves when you come in because of the unexpected. As a player you are kind of a creature of habit. Do the same things for 6-7 months. Used to doing the same things. But then it gets broken up and…there’s a new team a new atmosphere. There’s definitely some nerves there. I think my family was more nervous than I was last night when they flew in . It was a lot of fun. It’s gets back to one thing and that’s trying to win ballgames.”
How big is the family? : “Two girls (ages 5 and 3) and one on the way, we don’t know yet, due in June.”
on if he was looking for a place to play or a place to win:“I think a lot of factors were involved in it. I think winning was one of them. This team definitely has got the potential to not only go to the playoffs but go deep in the playoffs. They manufacture runs in so many different ways. Not only the home run but they have a lot of speed on the bases. When you get those guys on base and add the big guys in the lineup that takes more pressure off of you. And they can steal a base here and there you don’t have to worry about getting a guy over and stuff like that. That stuff is going to happen as well. This is a team that is very competitive we have seen over the past 4-5 years playing against them. It’s going to be a lot of fun to be in this lineup and see what you can do this year.”
on if it was easy to get up to speed: “Absolutely. I’ve been doing baseball work for the past month. Physically I feel really good and I passed with flying colors all the running and everything else. Bottom line is that you are out there doing the same thing. You are taking the same ground balls - it doesn’t matter what uniform you have on You do the same things and the same goals.”
on getting used to the Twins’ way of preparing for a season: “We did different drills. We did some drills I’ve never done before in spring. It all comes down to the same thing. It doesn’t matter how you do it or what way you do it as long as you get it done. That’s really the only difference, the way things were done. It’s very similar to what we did in Chicago. But like I said it comes down to winning ballgames and doing thing fundamentally sound.”
201 Responses to "Crede coverage: Day 4"
Glad to hear Joe is excited to be a Twins. Ready to see him on the field! Hopefully he’ll have a chip on his shoulder when we play against the White Sox.
seems like a nice guy - hope it works out for both sides!
I would love to sign Juan Cruz, but I just don’t want them to panic and give up too much to get him. I would prefer just giving up the 1st round pick than give up too much from your current roster/prospects.
give up the pick, which is 50/50 anyway, we should be getting a sandwich pick for reyes IF he ever signs only be 10+ plus picks lower. we always seem to pick guys higher than everybody else has them ranked anyway. whatever player we would take at 23 will probably be there with the reyes pick, imo.
be like trading reyes and a late first for cruz and an early 2nd, seems like a good deal.
Crede sounds like a decent fellow. Should fit well into the Twins locker room. As for Cruz, there is a rumor out there about other teams in the hunt and that at least one is thinking about acquiring him the old fashioned way…with a draft choice instead of the complicated sign and trade. I am not convinced that the Twins wouldn’t do that but I guess we’ll see. I would guess that the pressure on the DBacks ramps up by the day.
Based on how they handled Crede and the way they have behaved this offseason, I highly doubt that the FO would “panic” and throw too many goodies at Cruz and AZ.
If the Twins sign Cruz I would think this blog would be in danger of drying up. What on earth are people going to write about if they can’t complain about the GM? Oh wait…Punto is still on the team.
I am happy to have Crede. He is obviously a great player, and sounds like a fantastic individual. However, the sooner we can get him to stop using the word “we” when referring to the White Sox, and “they” when referring to the Twins, the better.
After seeing how the Crede deal played out, I have renewed faith in the FO and how they go about business. I would love to see Cruz in a Twins uniform & hope that Wild Bill can get it done but if it doesn’t happen then I’m okay with that too. Can’t wait for the first game on Wednesday - Go Twins!
I’m pumped. “IF” Crede and Cuddy are healthy this year you can add 20-40 more HRs between the both of them. That’s going to make a huge difference.
Also this gives us options. If Punto slumps under the pressure of starting every day Harris can move in and do just fine.
Or, if Alexi comes down to earth and perfoms more like the second half of 07 instead of his solid play last year we can move Harris to short and Punto to second. Basically, we wont have to suffer through any prolonged slumps.
Depth and added power are wonderful things. Now where did I put that pitcher of Cool-Aid. I need a refill.
Completely on board with giving up the pick and locking down Cruz. Why not? This guy could be a great set-up option now and in the future. With question marks present for just about everyone else in the pen other than Nathan (including, unfortunately, Neshek now and in the future), it would be worth the pick to acquire a talented and veteran back inning guy.
I’m a genius. I finally made the right move, for the right amount of money, and now it’s time to re-establish myself for a big payday in 2010.
Am I the only person who thinks some fans (and some in the local media) are getting a little carried away with their Crede love? Don’t get me wrong, I thought it was a solid move by the FO for several reasons, but I also don’t think he is a “great” player. His offensive numbers aren’t that great for a guy who played half his games in the Cell.
lol walter….yes we will still have punto to talk about…which should keep things busy, i think cruz will be a good pick-up but is there room for him in the bullpen? gardy hinted he might only take 11 pitchers up north.
I’m so happy about the Crede signing I want to sing all day.
ggg–interesting theory, but the Twins aren’t trading Reyes and a first round pick for Cruz and a sandwich pick. They are “trading” Reyes for a sandwich pick regardless of what happens with Cruz. Mixing the two scenarios confises the issue–is signing Juan Cruz worth losing a first round pick?
The Twins vote no. Given the current rankings of the Span’s, Cuddyer’s, Mauer’s, Hicks, Reveres, and Hunts, that seems warranted, even with the occasional Adam Johnson in there.
Too bad AZ seems to be turning this into a sign-n-trade auction. I was hoping that the complexity of the situation would mean that the team that did the work first would land him. Now, it’s up in the air.
saam: I think (much like when Young arrived) there is a bit of overexpecation here.
I’ve seen many projected lineups from commenters putting him anywhere from 3rd to 5th in the lineup (one guy had him batting cleanup)
If the Twins can get .280 and 20+ HR out of him, that’d be a HUGE boost from what they’ve been used to out of 3B.
A healthy Cuddyer (or a productive Young) puts another 20 HRs out there hopefully. Which again would be a big upgrade.
My only concern is any potential backlash should (god forbid) Crede not turn out as we’re hoping. (And by “hoping” I’m talking about about the average .280/20HR predictions vs. the .320/30HR predictions)
Good post, WJ. Even without having acquired Cruz (yet), I haven’t seen where someone has called for Bill Smith’s head (or worse) in 4 days. I could have missed something. I, too, wonder what the heck we will blog about if the FO lands Cruz. How good the bullpen is? Nah. Punto is the obvious target, but how many ways can you say he’s bad and overpaid? Oh, woe is me.
Speaking of calling for Smith’s head…there’s a number of users I haven’t seen a word from since Crede was signed.
Chief and jku come to mind. Though perhaps cenic had to go back and rewrite that book of his.
Had to look up Kareem,Rush. He’s a guard for the Sixers now. This link says he is 6-6/1,98 and 215/97,5. He must be some kind of metric guy with a comma in his name and in his stats.
Better than getting hyphenated I guess.
I think Crede will hit 20+ HRs but his average will be around .250. A little more power than Kubel (plus, as a rightie he doesn’t have to pull balls over the baggie to hit a homer) and a little lower average than Kubes. I think .250 is fine if he hits the long-ball. Brunansky was never more than a 250 hitter (Bruno also wore #24 if I recall). And Crede’s glove will make a big difference.
I’m just glad we won’t have to hear these over and over and over:
1. The Twins are cheap
2. The Twins really don’t want to add players that will help the team
3. The Twins are happy just to win the division
T, saam, good points about unrealistic expectations. Only once in a full season has Crede put up an ops. of more than .800. Still, if he can hit 20+ homers, it does more than add 20 homers to the stats, it changes the dynamics of the lineup. It’s someone other than Mauer and Morneau pitchers have to think about which, theoretically, should make the whole lineup better. There probably will be some backlash, though, T, if the 2006 Crede doesn’t show up. I mean, we’ve gotta complain about something other than Punto. Don’t we?
Can anybody explain to me how Crede is “obviously a great player” as I saw someone proclaim in here. His stats certainly don’t bear that out.
We were always suprised last year when our 3rd baseman got a hit, RBI or did anything positive.
It will be nice to not be be suprised over simple production. I think that is why people are so happy about the deal
Walter
The twins ARE cheap
this deal does nothing to disprove that.
WJ, WJ, Wj. Now you’re being naive (sp?). You’ll hear those things if the Twins don’t land Cruz, which is a distinct possibility. You’ll hear those things at the deadline until the club makes a deal, or if the club doesn’t make a deal, or if they make the “wrong” deal . . .. I predict the FO will get a reprieve from us knowledgable souls until the second week in March.
There probably will be some backlash, though, T, if the 2006 Crede doesn’t show up.
What’ll be interesting is to see who that backlash is pointed at…
danny: The Twins signed Crede to what amounts to a 7 mil contract. That is up there with what people figured Blake and Wigginton would have been worth annually.
And no, the Twins are not hoping that Crede doesn’t make those incentives. Because then that would mean that he did not do what they needed him to do (stay healthy and be productive)
Given that just a day or two before Crede’s deal was done, LEN and others were writing that the “word” coming out was that the two sides were at an “impasse”, I’m not writing off a Cruz deal just yet. Funny how the more optimistic the rumors are, the less likely they are to be accurate… and vice versa, at times.
As for Crede hitting in the middle of the order, T, I guess you can count me as one of those who could see him hitting clean-up. I’m among the group that things Mauer’s a #2 hitter and I’d also be good with sliding Morneau up to #3 behind him and getting them both a few more PAs over the course of the season. That would mean you want a RH hitter in the 4 spot and you go with whomever is showing the best pop coming out of ST from among Crede, Young and Cuddyer. That’s a prediction I wouldn’t want to have to make this early, but if his back is healthy, I wouldn’t be surprised to see that be Crede.
Buffalo:
I agree. I think Crede is a very good player and probably the highest-calibre player you could expect the Twins to get. I think he’s a perfect fit for the Twins and the kind of player Twins’ fans will really get behind. He has a great glove, and as Boneyard said, he changes the dynamics of the lineup. If you look at his potential output in an isolated way, it doesn’t show the real impact of having a right-handed power threat to back up Morneau. And with Cuddyer and Young coming up behind him, Crede is also going to see alot of good pitches. But I wouldn’t say he is “great”.
Wow, that second week in March prediction was way off, wasn’t it? Heh, heh.
True, the Twins are CHEAP. The hope is they have to pay Crede $7 million this year.
Hey LaVelle. I’d like to hear Crede answer a question about the Twins fans who have been on the Crede bandwagon for, it seems, the past 4 offseasons. It seems like every offseason for the past 4 years I’ve been hearing Twins fans drooling over Crede.
T, the backlash will be (in no particular order) pointed at:
1) Bill Smith;
2) Crede himself;
3) Gardy;
4) The Pohlads; and
5) LNP
Boneyard
I agree they are better off with Crede. Anytime you can replace a platoon with one player (who is also better defensively) it is a good thing. My concern is more that, as T stated, fans will be upset when Crede doesn’t hit .300. Lets also not forget that he won’t have the Twins to knock around anymore.
JC: I would rather see Morneau staying at #4 with Young or Cuddy (or Crede if he can) moving into #3 between M&M if Mauer moves into the #2 spot.
I sincerely doubt Morneau will bat anywhere but cleanup. Gardy is still very traditional in many ways and I think there is a sense that Morneau “derserves” to bat cleanup. I think Justin would have to really struggle through most of the summer before Gardy would move him down in the order. Never up in the order.
T
No. The twins signed him to a 2.5 mil contract with incentives.Being cheap doesn’t mean this deal is bad. I am all for it. But it still does not change the fact that they are cheap cheap cheap!
In fact, Fishwrap East (I think) had a story about Gardy being upset because the FO took away hot breakfasts and now only provide cold breakfasts.
cheap
I would like to see the experts here rank the AL starting third basemen from first to last. So we can all see where Crede sits relative to the rest of the league. I won’t do it because I’m not an expert (not even close) but there seems to be an abundance of them posting here, so please help.
Crede’s numbers will be very similar to Koskie’s when he was healthy.
The twins signed him to a 2.5 mil contract with incentives
And like I said, the Twins are praying that he produces at a level that earns him that 7 million.
When it comes to these types of incentives, the signing team should treat it like guaranteed money. Because it means the player did what they needed the player to do.
Chief and jku come to mind
I made one post over the weekend…I wasn’t on the blog.
That one post said simply “good signing.”
It’s a good signing even if Crede never gets an AB this season.
Just like signing Lamb last year was a good signing.
I’m not going to change my opinion on Crede either, regardless whether he turns out to be an asset or not. I do not expect Bill Smith to be able to see into the future. I do expect him to wisely invest the money he has available to give his manager the best possible options, and to take reasonable actions to improve the team.
If Crede is healthy, my expectations are something like a .750 OPS–heavy on SLG, light on OBP–and good to very good defense at third over 120-140 games. If they get less than that, they aren’t out a whole lot. If they DO get something like that, it’s hard to argue that’s not an improvement over what Buscher/Harris would’ve provided.
Now let’s sign Cruz and give up the draft pick.
T
Crede doesn’t get on base enough to bat #3.
saam: the other positive impact that crede should have, regardless of whether he hits .260 or .300 is his power. Having another power bat in the line up will mean that whomever bats ahead of him will see better pitches when runners are on base.
i think his stats up to his injury last year warranted him a spot on the all star team, 17 hrs at the break is pretty respectable, plus hes an upgrade at the corner from what we have going, i like harris backing up short more, punto is a tough sell there as a starter
everyone is feeling giddy that some move was made and the great souhan has set things up again for a fall. last year he set up dy as the second coming of babe ruth and when he didn’t live up to it bashed him the rest of the season.
today he comes up with “a brilliant fielder in punto” and “all four are capable of winning gold gloves” talking about the infield.
if i remember right the tigers were going to walk away with everything last year, maybe it’s time to temper things a little. crede should help, cruz would be very nice but this is still a team not good enough to win the division in a down year. they look like a team that will compete for a division title but everything would have to break right for a long playoff run, imo.
“I, too, wonder what the heck we will blog about if the FO lands Cruz.”
Where the parade route should be?
few teams go deep into the playoffs WITHOUT everything breaking right.
Thankfully, the Twins will not “take a chance” on Cruz by relinquishing a #1 draft choice. Contrary to the portrayal of some, the last decade of draft choices have yielded some exciting results. So before voting for Cruz in exchange for a first round choice, ask yourself if you’d be OK with Arizona randomly drawing any of these names out of a hat: Hicks, Revere, Hunt, Gutierrez, Moses, Plouffe, Span, Young, Mauer, Cuddyer. Do you want to take your chances that the slip of paper is Moses and not Hicks? Me neither.
I would like to see Morneau batting 3rd on Mauer’s off-days.
No worries, I’m here. And think Bill Smith did a great job on this one, whether it pans out or not.
Of course I booked Crede going to the Giants. I also booked that Dukakis would run away with the 1988 presidential election. That is why I booked Crede to the Giants.
I am also going to book Cruz going to the Dodgers, so that the Twins can somehow make that work too.
The only reason to keep Morneau at 4 rather than moving him up to 3 behind Mauer at 2 is to allow Gardy to revert to his preferred left-right-left-right pattern. I just don’t see that as good enough reason to keep your best hitter out of the #3 spot. OBP is less critical for #4.
That was my first impression also, danny. That is a rummage sale price for a third baseman. As far as being “great”, he WAS the All-Star third baseman and has hit 33 homers in a season. That’s pretty great. And he should be able to return to 100% after back surgery. Other pro athletes have, some even in football. (Joe Montana comes to mind). I think he’ll do alright if LNP doesn’t fk with him, Boneyard.(LOL)
There can only be one person the blame if Crede turns out to be a flop. And his initials are N.P.P.
ggg
I like the Twins chances to win the Central with a healthy Crded playing 3b. My comments were directed more at those who seem to be suggesting the Twins are now some kind of power house. If I had to guess I’d say that Crede is good for about 2-3 wins over a Buscher/Harris platoon.
bof you’re namimg a lot of guys who have never played a game in the big leagues and may never. young, mauer and cuddy were top ten picks, with young and mauer #1. no sure thing at #23 of course cruz could blow out his arm in april.
you take a chance maybe he makes the difference, we know the draft pick won’t help for several years if ever.
Chief, I think the Crede signing is a way better move than the Lamb signing. I howled when the Twins signed Lamb to (vurp) 2 years at $3 million per. The difference is Crede has actually won and kept a full time job at 3B. He is a great defender and nobody ever confused Lamb with Brooks Robinson. In other words, Crede has a chance to do something good for this club while what followed after the Lamb signing was fait accompli.
ggg, you just voted. I cancel your vote out, trust me. And I think you’ll be outvoted, considering that most of the guys I named are projecting rather sweetly. Kind of like how Liriano projected when the Giants took a chance on Pierzinski.
crede gives us all the chance of not having to talk about the issues at third base for the last 3-4 years, the worst thing we’d have to complain about this year is the glut of outfielders we stock or maybe punto…there i said it again today punto…
I agree Crede is a better sign than Lamb.
I just don’t hold the Lamb signing against Bill Smith.
Other than some poor plate appearances, how’d it hurt the Twins? The money is pretty inconsequential in both the short and long run.
I predict Lamb will have a decent year with Milwaukee. Lamb played poorly last season. It can happen to anyone, we just got him at the time it happened to him. The signing I never really undestood was Adam Everett.
How bout Buscher for Cruz? Likely?
We have Tolbert and Harris to back up Crede.
bof; here’s a link to the 23rd picks not many stars in this group.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?overall_pick=23&draft_type=junreg
adam everett deal looked good on paper, had some good years in houston but injuries caught up to him
Chief, I do hold the Lamb signing against Bill Smith (but not in the sense that I think he should be drqwn and quartered with the body parts on display at the new park as a warning to all) because the results were so predictable. That being said, even I didn’t think Lamb would be quite that bad. So, yeah, he may rebound a bit offensively with the Brewers, but probably not to the point where he’s playing everyday. And you’re right, WJ, the Everett signing was even more mystifying. But this is a new year. And to be fair to Mr. Smith, he has played the market well this year and landed us a quality player. He also locked up Morneau last year. He has done some good and proactive things, imo.
WJ,
‘The signing I never really undestood was Adam Everett.’
Bartlett had been traded to the Rays. Punto had just finished hitting .210.
What’s not to understand?
sane,
The Twins also had Harris. Why was he included in the trade for Garza if not to make up for losing Bartlett? Plus you had Casilla who could play SS if needed and the kids in AAA.
sane, Everett isn’t good. Never was. How did the signing help? Again, the results (not the injury, but the bad play) were entirely predictable. True, someone had to play short, but why Everett? Didn’t we trade for Harris? What about Casilla? There were, at the time of the signing, options other than Everett.
The only problems with the Lamb and Everett signings were the failures and injuries of the principals which were NOT as predictable as they seem to be in your memories.
The consensus was that Lamb just needed a chance to play everyday and that Everett was the best “available” defensive SS in MLB.
NOW, everyone knows better.
I guess I should have hit “refressh” before I posted, WJ.
Boneyard,
I agree 100%!
Harris was acquired to play 2B, if he could. Casilla was invisible last spring.
Everett WAS good. Always good defensively and an OK hitter until he was dropped to the 8-hole in the NL which is where hitters go to die.
Nope, sane. I said it at the time. Figuratively speaking, jama had to talk me down from the ledge. I remember that day distinctly. Of course, my wife’s recent ovarian cancer diagnosis may have had somethig to do with that. Or maybe it was the signings. Anyway, maybe now EVERYONE knows better, but I (and a few others) did say so at the time.
Everett was obtained solely for his glove. I just think he is the kind of player they could have picked up somewhere during the season if Punto and Harris were both horrible. They could have kept Luis O. Rodriguez and he would have been just as effective
ill always remember that double by Everett…and also his errant throws to Morneau
Homerun production will be on the rise.
Crede will produce more at 3rd base position. plus 15 over 2008 3rd base production.
Morneau will hit a couple more because he will get some better pitches to hit.
Cuddyer will add 15 over last year
Kubel stays about the same
Young goes to 15
Mauer finds his power stroke adds 10
Span picks up a half dozen more
Gomez picks up a half dozen more
Twins win 90 games in 2009 during the regular season.
Harris at SS is a joke.
Ask Joe Madden and Gardy.
Everett is light years better than Harris at SS.
If Everett’s arm hadn’t blown up and destroyed his defense, Harris would never have played SS after failing there for the Rays2007.
you cannot look at the last year’s signings based on what we know today. After the season was over, the Twins had holes in 2B (Casilla was in Gardy’s doghouse) OF (Hunter was gone and the Tyner/Rabe/Kubel LF was awful) RH power, bench, and rotation.
Back to the infield: Harris was acquired to fill in the 2B hole, the SS was gone. Punto hit around the Mendoza line in 2007, so the wanted to upgrade. Here comes Everett, the best defensive SS the last 5-6 years. Lamb was the best free agent option for the 3B on paper.
sane, Everett can field, but he is a career .246 hitter (.653 ops). The Twins didn’t have someone who could do that in house? For less than $2.8 million?
If I call heads before the coin flip, that doesn’t mean that I knew it was going to happen or that it was “predictable”.
If it was “actually” predictable, the Twins professional baseball people would have been able to predict it.
The rest of us took a guess - some right, some wrong.
thrylos is correct at 12:00pm.
back with bizarre postings. We have moved on from Everrett.. Last check Detroit has him.
We tried with Lamb, that he deserved to be a full time player and produce like a full time player.
Stats show that.
Harris somebody in the organization sees his value and why he was part fo the trade.
Steady glove, HR power seems to ring in.
Win Twins!
The Twins didn’t have someone who could do that in house? For less than $2.8 million?
Everett was the best fielding SS for the last 5-6 years. The Twins had nobody in house to do that. Tommy Watkins and Casilla shared SS duties in Rochester in 2007. Watkins’ defense left a lot to be desired and Casilla was big time in Gardy’s doghouse. Punto potentially could have done, but can you imagine the outcry if he was handed a starting job after the 2007 season?
sane,
You and thrylos98 are correct about Harris being the anticapted second baseman at the time Everett was signed. I just wish the Twins had shown the same faith in Punto as a SS this offseason as they did before the 2008 season.
Boneyard,
“Everett can field, but he is a career .246 hitter (.653 ops). The Twins didn’t have someone who could do that in house?”
The Twins didn’t, don’t, and will not have a SS who can play defense like Everett could 2 years ago.
At no level in the system.
thry, one more time, I’m not looking at last year’s signings based on what we know today. I’m looking at them based on what we knew 13 months ago. My opinion on this is not hindsight. Which is why I do not hold the Garza/Young trade against Mr. Smith as some do. He traded for potential for potential based on the data available then. It was an entirely reasonable decision, and may still pan out for the Twins. It’s too early to tell. But even if it doesn’t work out in our favor, I won’t say Mr. Smith was a bonehead for making the trade.
greg.
I like Harris - offensively and defensively at 3B.
Defensively at SS-2B?
I am sorry, but liking him has its limitations.
“you cannot look at the last year’s signings based on what we know today.”
I agree with your entire post, thrylos. When you have 12-15 question marks going into a season, you have to take some calculated risks. Neither Lamb nor Everett were particularly bad calculations, were they?
“The Twins didn’t, don’t, and will not have a SS who can play defense like Everett could 2 years ago.”
I thought Punto was like the greatest SS ever. I can’t believe the Twins were worried about Punto not being able to handle SS defensively. If they were worried about Punto’s bat, why go out and get a .240 hitter?
The best defensive SS in the Twins’ system the last couple of years has been Chris Cates. He has great hands and very good range, but his size and arm strength are huge problems. That’s probably as close to Everett as it comes in the Twins’ organization (only about a foot shorter)
Whoa, sane. It sounds like you’re dissing LNP’s fielding ability. Don’t let Gardy find out about that. But seriously, there’s no secret to the fact that a healthy Everett was a better fielder than anyone the Twins had. I know what I’m about to say is close to blasphemy, but there is more to the game than defense. A .653 ops. $2.8 million. Ouch. Go LNP!
Not only was Everett a reasonable pickup last offseason, if his arm issues are resolved, he’s going to help Detroit this year. I know Twins fans joke about him being signed by the Tigers, but be careful about doing that. Twins fans did not see the real Everett in 2008.
Boneyard,
if you add Young’s, Harris’ and Blackburn’s (he would have been in AAA if Garza were with the Twins in 2008) contributions for the Twins, and compare it to those of Garza’s and Bartlett’s for the Rays, I’d say they Twins are already ahead on that one.
“I’m looking at them based on what we knew 13 months ago.”
What did YOU know 13 months ago that the Twins FO didn’t know?
IMO, you guessed right, without any more information than the FO had when they guessed wrong.
It wasn’t foresight.
It was a good guess.
JC,
I know… somehow I still wish they kept him over Punto this offseason. Injuries and all, he was one of the best clutch player the Twins had hitting .429/.417/.524 (.940 OPS) in high leverage situations… I still do not understand why Gardy bury him (and a few others Harris, Ruiz) last September.
I think Cates (and others his size) should be allowed to take a certain amount of HGH. I mean… it’s not going to give them an advantage, just get them closer to being on the same level as every one else!
The kid can glove, though.
Everett’s offense numbers the three prior years to joining the Twins:
Year BA OBP
2005 .248 .364
2006 .239 .352
2007 .232 .318
Those are pretty consistant numbers. Unless you are signing him as a late inning defensive replacement, it is hard for me to see his defense outweighing his offensive liabilities.
I absolutely agree with Beetlejuice. Juan Cruz has amazing stuff and could be a perfect set-up guy. If (gulp) anything should happen to Joe Nathan, he’d have the stuff to close out games.
I screwed up: those were his SLUGGING %, NOT his OBP.
OBP was:
2005 .290
2006 .290
2007 .281
“A .653 ops. $2.8 million. Ouch. Go LNP!”
Punto’s OPS in 2007 was .562, which was the last data point the Twins had on him.
And his defense was never comparable to Everett’s, so Everett was projecting a large upgrade offensively AND defensively.
But you say the result was “predictable”.
I say “no way!”
Well, if you get right down to it, at some level, all personnel decisions are a “guess,” even if an educated one. That goes for just about any hiring, not just baseball. Look, sane, I’m not saying I “knew more” than the FO or that I’m some sort of genius. Sorry if I gave you that impression. Apparently, a mere mortal such as I is incapable of having foresight. So I was “lucky” about Lamb, Everett, and Monroe. And the FO was unlucky.
sane and T98,
I agree 100% with your posts defending the signing of Everett. It’s funny how defense is so undervalued by some fans. And fortunate for those fans that the Twins FO does understand the value. If Everett’s shoulder is healed Detroit’s IF will be a lot better. This will help their staff. I don’t think they reaized how bad The kid now on 1B would be. With the Twins budgetary constraints I don’t think they feel they can afford plus offense from the SS position. Too bad they missed ouy on Furcal. But to top 3 years/30M was beyond their budget.
Incidentally, I would have much rather been wrong and have all three of those guys shine last year.
I believe the expectation was that Everett’s offensive numbers would bump up a bit once he was no longer hitting in front of a pitcher. Not that anyone expected him to be a major contributor with the bat, but it would be interesting to know what the average offensive production is for #8 hitters in the NL. Those guys never get anything to hit.
“I know what I’m about to say is close to blasphemy, but there is more to the game than defense. A .653 ops. $2.8 million. ”
You really need to go and take a look at FanGraphs.com. In 2007, even though he played in only 66 games, Everett was worth nearly a full win, which in the open market was worth $3.9 million. The previous 4 years his value was $6.5 million, $7.2 million, $8.2 million, and $8.9 million.
Yes - there is more to the game of baseball than just defense. Or hitting. Or running. Adam Everett, however, is probably the best defensive shortstop in baseball right now. His defense more than makes up for his offensive liabilities, and a $2.8 million deal was a very good move by the Twins.
sane, would you agree Everett is the best defensive SS in baseball?
And WJ was worried we wouldn’t have anything to blog about today.
what the average offensive production is for #8 hitters in the NL
2008:
.241/.317/.348; .664 OPS
8th spot for the Twins:
.266/.308/.364; .672 OPS
Pete D,
F’ing A ! You get it dude.
Boneyard,
I have no more foresight than you or anyone else.
I am either guessing or weighing the factors differently than people with the same information.
I am just objecting to the insinuation that it was all obviously predictable, but the FO was just too _____ (your choice of word) to see it.
Here is the +/- rankings for SS (and others)
2005-2007 collectively
http://www.billjamesonline.net/fieldingbible/charts/leaders1-0507.gif
2004-2006 collectively
http://www.billjamesonline.net/fieldingbible/charts/20042006plus-minus.gif
Here is the plus/minus rankings for SS (and others)
2005-2007
http://www.billjamesonline.net/fieldingbible/charts/leaders1-0507.gif
Boneyard,
Maybe by this evening we’ll be arguing about the moves made in the 1995 offseason.
The Twins didn’t need to keep both Everett and Punto for 2009 and obviously chose to keep Punto. I’m not nearly the Punto-basher that most people are around here, but it will be interesting to see if they made the right choice. I don’t think it’s nearly the no-brainer most seem to think it is.
Everett signed with the Tigers for a million bucks. The Twins signed Punto for 2 years and 4 mil each. Guess we’ll find out how those decisions work out.
IMHO looking through a window 6 to 2 years ago, Everett’s got the best mechanics but Visquel was a little more gifted with eyesight and a little smaller allowing quicker physical response.
But sane, it was predictable. But then again, so is winning the lottery. I agree my earlier phrasing of “fait accompli” was too strong, but it was made somewhat tongue in cheek. Let’s just say, imo, the actual results were more likely to occur than not. And then we can agree to disagree. I do respect your opinion on the matter, btw.
Query: If Everett has such high value, why isn’t he still with the Twins?
What did the Tigers sign him for? I wasn’t paying attention.
JC,
I think they were right to keep Punto. He’s a lot more versatile.
WJ, I was in grad school during the ‘95 offseason. I don’t remember much about that time. Bob Dole was President, wasn’t he?
Not only was Everett a reasonable pickup last offseason, if his arm issues are resolved, he’s going to help Detroit this year. I know Twins fans joke about him being signed by the Tigers, but be careful about doing that. Twins fans did not see the real Everett in 2008.
Yup.
Everett got 1mm from Detroit, I believe.
He’s not still on the Twins because the Twins now believe Punto is a full time SS, rather than the utility guy they projected him as a year ago.
JC,
And they weren’t sure bout his shoulder.
Boneyard
I wasn’t high on the Everett signing either, but how can you say that his injuries, which were largely responsible for his poor play, were predictable?
Brendan Harris and Nick Punto have played roughly the same number of innings (NP: 1284, BH: 1242.3) at short in their careers. Nicky has started 1 more game there (141).
BH career (at SS): 18 E, 97 DP, .970 FP, 3.99 RF, 4.25 RF9.
NP career (at SS): 16 E, 97 DP, .977 FP, 3.96 RF, 4.67 RF9.
I confess to be unsure of why a RF for 9 innings would go up, but it does. I think that what this points out is that, yes Nicky is a better defender at short than Redbull Harris, but not by leaps and bounds. Harris’ D at short can hardly be called ‘a joke’.
I doubt I need to bust out the offensive categories to convince that he’s a better offensive threat.
How does this relate to All Crede, All the time? I think it opens the door for Harris to supplant Punto as the starting shortstop with a good spring, returning LNP to where he truly excels: utility infielder and pinch runner.
i’d say the case is closed on who the best ss is;
according to souhan today: “a brilliant fielder in punto”, “…capable of winning gold gloves”
it appears that 4m was a bargain!
when souhan says it, it can be booked!!
Paul, not only is Punto more versatile, but obviously the Twins believe his defense at SS is close enough to Everett’s that it’s worth using him instead… and they think he’ll provide more offense. Those are probably reasonable projections. Time will tell.
They also may doubt whether his arm is back to being healthy. Again, that may be a legitimate concern.
Being that the “real” Everett is a sub-240 BA with a sub-300 OBP, I can’t wait to see him with Detroit.
And everyone, I LIKE Adam Everett. I have said a few times, if he doesn’t get that Butchie-Boy double against the Rays, the Twins don’t even make the one game playoff with Chicago. So, I think he earned his money, even though he was hurt much of the year. I just didn’t see the point in signing him at the time. O vs. D is a matter of opinion/taste. If Punto wins a Gold Glove at SS but hits sub-240 with a sub-300 OBP, does it even itself out?
Boneyard,
No problem.
I think Everett is gone because:
1) his arm recovery is not a certainty.
and
2) Gardy does not want any other legitimate heirs (threats) to Punto’s SS throne to be left alive in the Kingdom.
i am really glad the twins finally signed crede and hope they sigs cruz.but our gm is still a fat slob.
So let me get this straight then…
Bill Smith, after making moves to strengthen both the bullpen and 3B (as promised) is still a fat slob…why?
Are you referring to his physical appearance at this point? Or just tossing out random insults because you think they’re cute?
WJ,
Hypothetical:
What if Punto had been given the SS job last year and had batted .210 again, as he did in 2007?
Gardy and Bill smith would have been skewered on the same shish-ka-bob.
Thanks for the info, JC. I appreciate that.
So, if I understand this correctly, the Twins elected to have LNP play SS instead of Everett and pay him $3 million more this year despite Everett’s very high value as a SS. Does that mean the club made a dumb movein selecting their SS this winter? Or is Everett’s shoulder that much of a concern?
ryan,
You need to give Smith credit for outbidding, outmaneuvering all those other teams that were out there trying to land Crede.
sane,
You seem to want it both ways. You sign Everett for his glove in case Punto stinks at the plate?
Little Alice stands over ryan, daring him to get back up as ryan, tears streaming down over the red welt on his cheek, thinks to himself that maybe he shouldn’t call little Alice bad names anymore.
Now run along, ryan.
WJ,
Chances are better that one out of the two would hit OK.
At least the FO would have had a plan B.
If all the eggs would have been put in Punto’s basket for the second year in a row, that would have fit the definition of insanity.
BOP,
Priceless
I don’t care how much money the Twins pay for a player… I am a fan and don’t want a rag arm/ good range/ no bat (AT ALL!!!) Adam Everett around here. Everett never once had a year like Punto did last year… and not even close to the year he had 3 years ago. The punto vs. Everett debate is embarrassing. Punto gives you versatility, if needed, gives you a ton more speed/ effort and some personality. Everett was a bore and is physically breaking down. Please STOP COMPARING THEM!!! Dollar for dollar it isn’t even close. If the debate is the money, who cares? Are you trying to balance the Twins budget? Are the Twins just hap-hazzardly throwing money around now?
Boneyard, the Twins were wise to let Everett walk. Based on his 08 performance, they couldn’t afford to take a risk that he’d go right back to that in 09.
That was the mistake they made picking up Rondell White’s option for a second year.
Anyway, like I said: I wish the FO had had as much faith in Punto this offseason as they did a year ago.
Denny Neagle for John Smiley. Now THAT was a bad trade.
Boneyard, as I said before, I think it will be interesting to find out whether they made the right choice. I can’t argue with the choice, however.
Punto is, presumably, healthy and they know Punto better and are more comfortable with him in the line up than Everett. Budget wasn’t really an issue so it’s not like the money entered in to the decision.
I’m certainly not saying Everett SHOULD have been kept, in lieu of Punto… just that I won’t be at all surprised if Everett turns out to have a pretty decent year for Detroit and provide to them what the Twins thought they would get from him last season. It all comes down to whether the arm is healthy. It clearly was not in 2008.
*hands adam some valium.
adam,
Please submit a list of topics that we are allowed to discuss.
I will forward that list to someone who gives a sh-t!
What’s with the man-crush on Crede? He’s just a ball player. Back it up a bit.
Trade 98. He’s a Dumbass.
Everett never once had a year like Punto did last year…
Nor has Everett had a full year like Punto (.210/.291/.271) did in 2007.
Everett’s career OPS is .651 (.246/.296/.355).
Punto’s career OPS? .651 (.252/.319/.332)
Topp Dogg,
You are right. We should move on to something other than the recent Crede signing.
Should the Twins re-sign Crede after the 2009 season and for how much?
Some one on here mentioned that defense vs offense value was subjective. Doesn’t someone on here have some kind of software to simulate baseball games with different variables? Who would win? A bunch of Jim Thomes and Big Papis vs a bunch of Everetts and Puntos?
I bet that game would have a softball score. Bout 56 to 48.
Simulated baseball games are subjective.
Good discussion today. I now actually have to work . . .
Depends on who’s pitching Everett or Punto. And we all know that Thome and Papi are super fast runners and GREAT fielders, that’s why they play the field so much.
“Who would win? A bunch of Jim Thomes and Big Papis vs a bunch of Everetts and Puntos?”
I think it would be pretty much in the Everett/Punto camp. Ortiz could never play defense, and it’s been a long time since Thome put on a 3B glove. I cringe to think of Ortiz/Thome trying to turn a double play…
with Thome and Ortiz at third and first, the Punto/Everett team will never get on the field with bunt hits at every AB.
Don’t be a drama queen Jon… Talk about anything you want. The question isn’t can you discuss the two but should you? *****
Punto vs. Everett ??? come on guys… Over the last 3 years Punto has a .284 average (328 for 1269), .345 obp, .727 ops and has stolen 48 bases. Over the last 3 years Everett has a .212 average (201 for 861) .281 obp, a .603 OPS and 13 swipes (in 21 attempts). It’s not even close.
T98,
Might depend on which team bats first.
I’d bet on the PuntEveretts unless they’re playing at Arlington.
Paul,
I suspect that the Ortiz/Thome team will get a few fly outs…
my fault on the numbers, guys, sorry.
Punto, .258 avg, .329 obp, .667 ops 48 sb
Everett, .233 avg, .283 obp, .623 ops, 13 sb
***
It still isn’t close, especially considering that Everett hasn’t done anyting at the plate - ever (the one exception might be 2005 when he somehow hit 11 bombs and stole 21 bases - even then his OB% was .290.
***
With the arm trouble he has had on top of that, it is hard for me to believe that some people want Everett around here rather than Punto.
Not to nitpic, Adam, but 328 for 1269 is a .258 BA, not .284.
I’m too lazy to go figure out Punto’s OPS over the past three years, but I’ll wager $10 to your $.25 that it’s not .727.
T98,
Depends on the pitcher. If neither of those guys can pitch–it might get ugly.
I think the better question would be: who would win, a team of Everett/Puntos or a team of Bartlett/Harrises? Will the E/P’s meager batting averages be bolstered by the lesser fielding ability of the B/Hs? or will the B/Hs better offensive numbers outweigh the E/P’s gloves?
Best discussion ever.
USAFChief, yep already corrected my mistake. Again, my mistake.
I’m not sure I recall reading anyone saying they “want” Everett over Punto.
While the question was raised concerning whether the Twins made the right choice, I don’t think anyone responded that they hadn’t.
Could be some people need to be careful about reading too much in to things.
Anybody getting the mlb.tv package this year? It’s $109.95 for the season. HD is new.
Walter,
How bout something more extreme. How bout Everett/Ray Ordonez (Not sure of spelling) vs Buscher/Harris ?
I’m not familiar with Ordonez. Is he related to that a-hole who plays for Detroit?
bartlett/harrises would obviously destroy punto/everett’s. punto would have to play everywhere but 1b. “punto looks in for the sign from punto. punto delivers, bartlett hits a fly ball deep to right center, cf punto and rf punto both dive head-first but neither come up with it and bartlett goes around the bases with an inside the park home run. one to nothing bh.” that would also be the final score.
Walter,
He played for the Mets a few years back.
Awesome glove. No hit.
Are people really questioning whether the Twins made the right choice picking Punto over Everett? Did the Twins over pay for Punto? In hindsight, yes, but the economy of baseball has changed so much since they signed Punto it is easy to say that we paid more then for what we could pay for Punto now. If the argument is Punto or Everett, that is just silly.
The original point was whether it was wise to sign Everett at all before the 2008 season.
Are people really questioning whether the Twins made the right choice picking Punto over Everett?
The discussion started over the question “Was signing Everett in 2008 a ‘bad move’ by Bill Smith?”
Everett was actually a little better than Ordonez. Ordonez was great with the Mets but for some reason (maybe because he was Cuban and about 5-6 older than declared) he just burned out at 32 or so. Everett actually has a better stick as well…
T98,
Ordonez broke his arm towards the end of his carrer. He was never the same after.
Ordonez has a .246 career average over 9 seasons.
Everett has a .246 career average over 8 seasons.
How in the heck is Topp Dogg not banned yet? The only thing the guy “contributes” is bashing thrylos day in and day out.
And not the typical venom laced pot shots…but straight up profanity driven.
[…] Twins Insider – […]
In the discussion of Punto vs. Everett I think most posters are leaving out the speed factor. Punto can motor on the basepaths, Everett can not, everything else being equal between two players at any position I’ll always prefer the guy that can run over the guy that can not.
Where did all this talk about ordonez start up. I only know that detriot a**hole
If it comes to batting I would say Punto wins. Fielding I heard everett was good but i didn’t see much. so Punto wins that. Speed also is in favor with punto
T,
who cares, just ignore him… doesn’t worth anyone’s time to deal with this kind of stuff…
T
I would say Topp Dogg is getting close by now
Alright back to baseball.
Hear Guillan ripped out his big toenail
Dellucci “claimed/joked” about saving a kid from an alligator, and that is how he hurt his thumb
I am pretty sure that he is either E5 himself or a family member/friend. This whole thing started when I started referring to E5 as “Butcher”…
T98,
Are you serious? Pay me 400G a year and you can bash me 24/7
if everret would play a whole season we might see what he is actually worth.
Since he hasn’t as far as i’m concerned it was a good move to let him go
Paul, the only thing (other than the trade me stuff) he talks about is how great E5 is and how good an off-season he had preparing. I thought that with the Crede signing he’d go back to his kennel, but apparently didn’t happen. Maybe when E5 goes back to Rochester, he will be trolling the Red Wings blogs.
T98
sounds like a referrance gone wrong
“The original point was whether it was wise to sign Everett at all before the 2008 season.”
- Oh, thank God! I thought people wanted more of AE!!!
**
2008 was a reaction to 2007. (Isn’t it always) We found a 3B last year in lamb, who always had the “He’s never had chance to play full-time” stigma. Well the Twins gave him a chance and it didn’t work. Not a bad move really. It turned out horribly, but Lamb looked solid. The next position we needed was short. The idea, I suppose, was that Punto is a great sub and there weren’t any hitters that played SS, so let’s go get the best defensive SS available, plug him into the 8 hole and see what happens. Well, that failed miserably as Everett continued his decent to where he is today as the worst hitter in baseball, which is irrelevant since they brought him in for his glove only to realize that he can’t throw either. I think the theory to bring him in was fine. The back-up plan last year for Everett was Punto, and Punto played well enough to be their plan (for now) at SS in 2009.
t98
correct me if im wrong fbut you are reffering to buscher right
js
you hsve basically summed up the whole reason why we bring in half of these no name players that get their shot here
m,
yes… Buscher (E5)
more of AE might have been disasterous for play offs this season
t98
Well if it is him it might not end by him going to rochester it would probably get worse
Topp Dogg should be neutered!
M, We are always looking for a bargain, aren’t we?
*
At least with Crede, we aren’t hoping for a random resurgence, like Batista, Sierra, Monroe, et al. We are looking for a guy to recover from an injury and resume what he was doing. He is close enough (2008 All-Star) where that at least seems realistic.
JS
true man true. my thoughts exactly. We have a name player with decently good numbers instead of a noname player with bottom of the league numbers
Cruz would be a good addition but I don’t think the Twins really NEED him IMO.
Twins DO need a little bullpen help. If Neshek were healthy last year we would have won the division. I would love to see Cruz AND Chad Cordero join our pen. I think it would be VERY beneficial to a team with 5 young starters to have a pen stacked like that. It would go a long way towards getting us into the ALCS vs. the Yankees this year.
The big question, of course, is whether Crede’s back will hold up to standing on a few inches of field turf over cement at the Dome month after month. That seems to get to all the infielders, even when they’re 100% going into the year. I say he’s 50/50 for having back issues. Keep Buscher and Harris handy.
I’d like to seem them put mauer in the leadoff role and morneau batting 3rd. get those two as many ab’s as possible by moving them up in the lineup and then you can do the lrlrlr pretty easily by moving span down to 6th in the lineup. that leaves a bottom three order of cuddy/young, gomez and punto but buscher would be available to ph later in the game if a lefty were available
guess I should mention that #2 batter is casilla/harris
