Monday update
Posted on June 22nd, 2009 – 10:26 AMBy La Velle
The sense we’re getting is that the Twins will juggle their bullpen this week after watching Sean Henn and Luis Ayala struggle in recent outings. Bobby Keppel has been mentioned as a possibility, but I wonder if they will consider this pitcher too. He’s already on the 40-man roster.
Heard that Bill Smith will be in Rochester this week to check on prospects.
I’m headed to KFAN studios right now for the weekly baseball segment at 11:05 a.m. But I’m also filling in for Dan Cole from Noon to 3 p.m. So if you have Twins questions, I might have answers.
In addition to the Twins, we’ll keep up with the finish of the U.S. Open, which has become a free-for-all. Someone is bound to ask a football question. And I might bring up the other kind of football, as Team USA has reached the semis of the Confederations Cup in South Africa - shockingly.
116 Responses to "Monday update"
About Time to can Ayala and Henn. Bill Smith, why you are at it go out and get Freddy Sanchez.
Bill Smith has been found? What bunker was he hiding out in?
Per the Rochester Democrat website, Keppel was told yesterday he is being recalled. Ayala out.
Highlight of the weekend was when Bert, commenting on the Astros defensive alignment, said they were “shading him to straight away center”
LEN III, any idea what the situation is with the field in Milwaukee? It sounds like they got flooded by the weekend storms (must have forgotten to close the roof, those silly Sconies) and it sounds like the series may need to be moved. I’m hoping that isn’t the case as I’m heading to Milwaukee the Wednesday to catch the Thursday game.
Any update is appreciated.
D-Luxxx
I thought H. Street played in Colorado.
Hadn’t heard about a situation with Miller Park, but outside of it affecting the Twins series, I have to say I’d find it pretty funny that after all the consternation over the Twins NOT putting a retractable roof on Target Field, it turns out to be games in Milwaukee that are jeopardized.
LOL if the field is flooded and they neglected to use the roof - what good is am umbrella if you don’t use it? Duh!
Billy Smith needs to trade some young prospects for a decent arm in the pen. Or is Billy gun shy about pulling the trigger once again??
Gabino has been pretty impressive the last six weeks. I’m not sold on him being great long term, but he’s probably worth the consideration.
Keppel has been impressive!
Teams win when they get what they need when they need it. Last year the Twins won because they hit well with RISP. The bullpen was “barely” adequate. We need to get the hits when we need them and the bullpen to be “adequate” again.
Smith deserves some credit for the R.A. Dickey signing. What a steal he’s been.
Gardy’s postgame comments Saturday night made it sound like he’s completely had it with Ayala.
if you google miller park flooding, there are plenty of news reports that say the stadium will be ready for the series tomorrow… sounds like the stadium itself and not the field had the worst flooding.
Thanks Matt. I guess it was the storm drains that backed up.
Per the Rochester Democrat website, Keppel was told yesterday he is being recalled. Ayala out.
Where in that link you provided says “Ayala out”?
Might as well give Keppel a shot. He can’t do much worse than Ayala.
Eh, famous last words… 
If you were Smith, who of the following 3 relievers would you recall (2009 Rochester numbers) :
Pitcher 1: 3.12 ERA, 1.038 WHIP, 6.6 K/9, 2.29 K/BB
Pitcher 2: 2.44 ERA, 1.157 WHIP, 4.6 K/9, 2.15 K/BB
Pitcher 3: 3.08 ERA, 1.215 WHIP, 12.6 K/9, 2.31 K/BB
?
Without names, just looking at results
thrylos, I’ll take bachelorette #3.
Pitcher 1 = Gabino
Pitcher 2 = Keppel
Pitcher 3 = Morillo
I’m guessing “Henn Out” and not Ayala. Ayala has been much better compared to Henn’s recent performances.
you answered too quickly, thry, I was also gonna say Pitcher #3, but now my vote doesn’t count. Darn.
t98, you say Keppel throws a lot of junk, do you know what kind? Does he get a lot of groundballs? I’m suspicious that his AAA ERA in no way predicts his success with the big club. Morillo is definately the best option from just looking at the numbers.
I agree with Twin-Ter. Ayala might be OK later, but Henn’s confidence could be damaged. I’m not ready to give up on Ayala just yet, but ONE MORE……………..grrrrrrrrrrr!
OB,
Here are the batted ball breakdown for Keppel this season:
55.9% GB, 16.7% LD, 25.8% FB (.273 BABIP)
as far as what he throws:
2-seamer, 4-seamer, slider, curve, change up. He had a split finger when he was with the Mets but he abandoned that a few years ago. His fastball is 86-90, slider and change low 80s, curve mid-70s. About half of his pitches are fastballs the rest is junk. Contact pitcher without an out pitch. Think Ayala but with worse stuff.
Sorry, Ayala out was my editorial comment.
Thanks t98. This info does not surprise, I bet he’s gotten a bunch of DPs. No way he replicates that GB% in the majors, though. At least in my opinion.
Think the Twins could get a decent bullpen arm for Redmond?
OB, the other thing that is unsustainable is his 2.1% HR/FB. That should probably be around 10%, which is his career average…
Hallelujah.
I have no idea how good Keppel will be, but I have wanted to see Ayala leave for a long time now.
As for Henn, I think he is as good as any other no name lefty for the purpose of retiring one or two left handed hitters in relief. But I have no earthly idea why he has come on in a setup role so often this year. He had no business coming in in the seventh inning on Saturday.
how come Bonser isn’t on the 60 day dl? is there hope he will come back during the season? I’d see what Gabino can do over Morillo because if Morillo bombs they’d have to risk him clearing waivers. Gabino i think would have options.
Yeah, t98, that HR/FB% is unreal. If Keppel is the move to shore up the pen, I fully echo your thoughts about the FO needing some number crunchers to balance out the scouts. I’d say the Twins can probably expect worse performance from Keppel than they’ve seen from Henn. At least Henn has pretty good stuff (despite his inability to locate).
Unfortunately, I think Henn’s splits this season don’t look good for being a LOOGY. For whatever reason, I think he’s had better success against righties.
The fact that you’re probably going to lose Keppel if you don’t promote him before his July 1 option date probably plays in to the decision concerning who you promote right now. Maybe just the fact that hitters haven’t seen him might help him be more effective than some others at this point, even if he isn’t overpowering. If he comes up and can’t get outs, at least you don’t feel so uncomfortable if you lose him.
OB, that has been Henn’s issue since day one: command. Why did anyone think that it would be any different right now, does not make any sense. Henn has a good fastball, that’s about it. He is the lefty version of the Jesse Crain of the last month. The fact that they got rid of Breslow for him, will bite them on the butt some time. It is this knee jerk reaction that is frustrating. Instead of finding situations for particular pitchers, they start throwing them there in all situations and if they stick, they stick. If not, goodbye… Not a great way to run a team.
JC,
Not losing a non-prospect career minor league journeyman should be a way much lesser concern that winning games. I don’t think that there were many tears shed for Mr Gosling’s departure a couple weeks ago. The should have learned the lesson with Bass last season. I thought that the early Humber demotion showed that. Getting Keppel up so they don’t lose him, is crazy…
I have no idea how good Keppel will be, but I have wanted to see Ayala leave for a long time now.
“He can’t be worse than ____” is not a viable reason for suggesting a player as a replacement.
Because as we’ve seen in the past…there is ALWAYS a way to be worse than the last guy.
I hate to bring someone up just because of his options July 1 but is exactly what the Twins are doing. Keppel’s MLB #’s certainly don’t look that impressive. BUT he has to be better than Henn at this point.
98: Who do you think B. Smith is scouting @ Rochester? Could one be Tolleson for Tolbert?
Getting Keppel up so they don’t lose him, is crazy…
IF that’s why they’re doing it.
Where is Breslow when we need him?
Breslow decided he didn’t want to get guys out anymore. So Breslow is gone.
Keppel does not have to better than Henn, Rocky. In fact, he probably won’t be. He’s been lucky at AAA this year and it appears that the FO doesn’t know it.
98: Who do you think B. Smith is scouting @ Rochester? Could one be Tolleson for Tolbert?
You know, I was thinking exactly the same thing 
He has 98 PAs now in Rochester, so the sample is getting bigger and he has been hitting .337/.418/.477. He is on the 40-man roster and I do not see a reason why he should be in Rochester while Tolbert is in the bigs.
That said, I suspect Huber, Winfree, Crain, Morillo, Duensing, Delaney will get some looks, perhaps for future reference
Gabino has not been put into too many set up jobs, so his success rate has been better. Definitely not sold on him coming up.
Can anyone be worse than Ayala? Thankfully DePaula is no longer available to stake that claim.
Breslow decided he didn’t want to get guys out anymore. So Breslow is gone.
I bet to differ. Check this out:
This season:
Twins: 14.1 IP, 6.28 ERA, 1.535 WHIP, 6.9 K/9, 1.00 K/BB
A’s: 12.1 IP, 2.92 ERA, 1.135 WHIP, 7.3 K/9, 2.00 K/BB
Career splits:
ERA: April: 3.65, May: 4.67, June: 1.69, July: 2.63, August: 2.60, Sept.: 2.49
WHIP: April: 1.703, May: 1.096, June: 1.000, July: 1.244, August: 1.154, Sept.: 1.658
Do you think that there might be an alternative explanation?
thry, Thanks for posting Keppel’s numbers. That K/9 rate isn’t very encouraging.
thrylos, while promoting a guy JUST because the organization is likely to lose him would be “crazy”, I don’t think giving him a first look above a couple of other guys who are certainly no guarantees either is out of line.
Nobody much cared about losing Gosling, that’s true. But he’s now in Cleveland’s bullpen and had a successful first appearance for them. (1H, 1 intentional BB, 2K and no runs in 1.2 IP.) If he proves himself valuable to the Tribe, I’m sure there will be no shortage of comments around here indicating how stupid the Twins were for letting him walk away without giving him a shot ahead of Henn and others. That’s the beauty of 20-20 hindsight.
My preference might be for Morillo. But let’s be honest, there isn’t a single guy in the RedWing pen that you’d look at and think, “OMG why isn’t that guy in the Bigs?” It’s going to be a crapshoot, no matter which guy they promote, so yeah I can see giving a guy who’s been having success down there AND has a walk-away clause about to become effective the first look from among the choices available.
I know this is a FIP averse group, but I’d like to point this out: Ayala’s FIP = 4.39; Dickey’s FIP = 4.72. Ayala has not been nearly as bad as so many suggest.
Smith is in Rochester scouting a cook at Denny’s. Word is he’s pretty good a the grand slam.
OB, Ayala’s BABIP is .337 for the season while Dickey’s is .265 for the season and .158 in June. Does anyone think that that is sustainable?
Dickey’s knuckler probably…probably…works better in the warmer weather….
Twins had better hope and pray it is sustainable, as bad as the bottom feeders in the pen have been.
JimC, that is very true. There is no one in Rochester one can expect to shore up the big league pen. Keppel for Henn though is likely to a wash at best. That opinion is not hindsight.
98: Know you are a Buscher hater but he has a modest 3 game hitting streak, is 3 - for his last 9 and finally hit a line drive (2 of them) and got a hit off of a lefty. Could Buscher be shaking his slump at the plate?
I’m not sure I read a knuckleballer’s stats quite the way I do “normal” pitchers’.
Dickey will walk more guys and probably hit more guys (though I might argue that anyone who gets hit by a knuckleball shouldn’t be given 1B because they clearly didn’t try too hard to get out of the way… but that’s an argument for another day).
But unlike other pitchers, he doesn’t go in to a panic when he walks a guy. If the ball is moving, he’s going to miss a lot of bats which mean strikeouts. Likewise, even when contact is made, it’s quite likely it won’t be as solid as if it were a fastball or slider.
I guess what I’m saying is that I’m willing to believe Dickey’s better than average success rates at BABIP may be sustainable (tho probably not at the .158 level).
“Keppel for Henn though is likely to a wash at best. That opinion is not hindsight.”
No, that isn’t hindsight. It is, however, purely speculative at this point.
“who of the following 3 relievers would you recall…Without names, just looking at results”
I’d rather additionally weigh in with the players history and situation (especially this year). And are they primarily FB pitchers, and what do their coaches think.
I, like DrDon, would be tempted with #3. But does he primarily throw FB’s, etc.
In the end they are pretty close, stats wise.
Ayala had good stats for about a month. But he still looks unserviceable as per a sidearmer trying to throw sinkers. And Henn looks like he’d rather be golfing than throwing. Don’t see a lot of athletic exertion from him.
Why do we have to just choose 1 of the 3, thry? Why not get Keppel AND Morillo, so they could bear the Lone-Ranger/Saviour thing together, trying to turn around the Twins season?
Shoot for the stars, BS.
Good post, OB, but what the he!! does FIP have to do with pitching? ? ?
http://www.ehow.com/how_4629674_tell-cats-fip-diagnosis-accurate.html
I know t98, Ayala’s should improve and Dickey’s is about right (Knucklers always do a bit better if I recall). Certainly, that .158 is an outlier though.
I agree on both player’s Thry. Morillo and Tolleson up asap.
Yeah Tolleson for Tolbert is a shot in the dark that makes considerably more sense than Keppel for Henn.
I really think the Twins are just trying to make this season interesting for the PBS documentary.
Enough about pitching. Is anyone else STILL upset about Punto’s head first slides over and over. And as a result his injuries that hurt the team……
Can he be told NOT to slide head first?
And the miniual benefits………
Oh… and as much fun as it is to discuss options for strengthening the bullpen, I would also mention that I think the most important improvement on the near horizon should come from getting Span back later this week (assuming he’s able to play through the dizziness issues). It would take one hell of a bullpen to win many games while the offense is limited to 1-2 runs consistently.
True about the speculation, JimC, I just don’t want to hear about Henn/Keppel being hindsight when it occurs. And yeah, Span back is better than just about any trade that could be made.
shaun, you a funny man.
“Ayala had good stats for about a month. But he still looks unserviceable as per a sidearmer trying to throw sinkers.”
Maybe the idiot watched Eckersly too much.
That Span injury could be a blessing in surprise too, if Delmon’s got his confidence back. Maybe the Twins have had their DH for lefties all along (Look at Delmon’s career splits, not this years).
JC,
Wakefield has a league average .290 career BABIP. Phil Niekro’s career BABIP was .273 (but I am not sure what the league average was back then). I suspect that RA will probably digress to the norm
Blessing in disguise. My bad.
“Getting Keppel up so they don’t lose him, is crazy…”
Well….not quite. Of course he’s chancey, but has reasonable stats. And you’d think he’d be as reliable as Henn considering the latter’s wildness.
Worth a shot……Keppel instead of either Henn or Ayala.
I think JimC explanation may suggest why knucklers tend to have lower BABIPs. But the .290-.300 range hasn’t historically applied for the knucklers (courtesy of Rob Neyer).
“RA will probably digress to the norm”
As only a knuckler could do.
yeah, thrylos, perhaps that indicates Dickey will regress. I admit I’m biased for the guy because I’ve always felt that if someone could actually throw a knuckleball with some velocity on it, he’d be hell to try to hit and Dickey is the first guy I’ve seen do so with regularity. The fact that he has been successful so far appears to validate my own subjective beliefs… so I’m going to stick with them until I’m proven wrong. (again!)
romer,
Ayala is a much better pitcher than Keppel. Keppel is as bad as Henn or even worse for that matter. He is at the Rincon level (who, btw, is putting out stellar numbers at Colorado Springs this season: 1.08 ERA, 0.840 WHIP, 11.9 K/9 and 3.67 K/BB )
Where are all of the “Brain Wizards” who were bemoaning Bill Smith’s inability to sign Juan Cruz? Still think he was worth a first-round pick?
thrylos: Rincon’s minor league numbers may be impressive. But I think we all agree that his problem was getting guys out in the big leagues.
JC,
don’t get me wrong I like the way he is pitching and I think that he is the best long man/mop up man the Twins have had for a while now. Anything more than that might just be a bit too risky. He has been brilliant in his role. Let’s keep that role that way.
T,
agreed. Keppel and Henn also had decent minor league numbers this season, but their problems have been the same as Rincon’s; thus the analogy.
“Is anyone else STILL upset about Punto’s head first slides…”
Gardy’s fault. Too late to teach an old dogg new tricks now.
“while promoting a guy JUST because the organization is likely to lose him would be “crazy”, I don’t think giving him a first look above a couple of other guys who are certainly no guarantees either is out of line.”
Eggzactly
thrylos09, If Keppel is truly a “pitch to contact’ pitcher, he will be truly loved by the Gardy & Andy freak show! Ayala and Henn are PTC pitchers … unfortunately, that contact often results in the outfield fans fielding the ball. I guess one more guy like that wouldn’t hurt.
“Jack Hammer says:
June 22nd, 2009 at 2:04 pm
Where are all of the “Brain Wizards” who were bemoaning Bill Smith’s inability to sign Juan Cruz? Still think he was worth a first-round pick?”
No second guessing - unless of course it is negative
I can see a bit more flexibility for Dickey’s role. Certainly don’t want to deal with any inherited runners, so he’d have to start off the later innings rather than reliever. Why not throw him in for a batter or two and have Mijares and Guerrier ready? Especially if one is trying to save wear and tear on the latter two’s arms.
“Maybe the idiot watched Eckersly too much.”
Well, if he could get THAT kind of sink.
And I should have said semi-sidearmer when referring to Ayala. He’s kind of a work in progress, isn’t he?
Perhaps Keppel is to be the mop up man so Dickey is used more prominantly?
romer,
He used to be pretty good before TJ surgery, his wife leaving him and getting shot. I think the Twins feel he can return to his prior form. From what I observe, IMO his command is the big issue.
if i had my way for now, this would be the twins tomorow….
span cf
harris ss
mauer c
morneau 1b
cuddyer rf
kubel dh
crede 3b
young lf
punto 2b
gomez - winfree- morales-redman-tolleson
baker sp
slowey sp
liriano sp
perkins sp
blackburn sp
keppel rp
duensings rp
dickey rp
mijares rp
guerrier rp
nathan rp
swarzak and morillo a phone call away…
thats it if we have to stick to our own pickings and not go outside of the organization, as our f.o. is so inclined to do- but im not sure this is good enough to win over the next 3 months + i think we need help elsewhere
“Ayala is a much better pitcher than Keppel.”
I’m anything but excited about Keppel. Hopeful though.
And I’d remove Henn right now……let Ayala pitch to lefties with his sinker fading away from them. Gotta be better than Henn walking them.
Bye bye Ayala according to LEN III on KFAN.
DFA’d.
oficially ayala is gone according to lavelle on the radio—no loss
LEN III on KFAN this afternoon. Really good guy to listen to.
He said Donald Fehr stepped down as MLB Player’s Association top guy. Michael Weiner taking over.
Baseball, weiners, apple pie and Chevrolet.
I like it mj1. Buscher for Winfree is my only major difference. A few quibbles with the lineup too. Do you think this also suggests Dickey in the late innnings, with Keppel as extra inning protection?
what has henn done for this club lately?? get him gone also…ayala was no loss and henn is even less of one
Henn is the man. That’s why they didn’t move him.
Henn the menn.
i would not be afraid to throw dickey in for a late inning run…7th and 8th inning- sure wouldnt hurt to try sometime soon-cant be much worse than we have had
Gardy just didn’t like Ayala.
How bad must a personality be to take precedence over performance? Is Ayala that toxic? Makes one wonder about this clubhouse.
unless your name is punto or cuddy i think gardy pretty much grades on performance…i may be wrong, but……
I don’t think it was his personality so much. Gardy was very upset that Ayala was not listening to Andy about getting on top of his slider.
Clash of personalities, huh. I suppose it could be a clubhouse problem. Hard to argue that Ayala is worse then Henn though. Henn’s got a harder fastball, but Ayala’s got the faster slider. Similar K/9’s but Ayala’s BB/9 is much better, (up in the Blackburn/Perkins range). I guess the question I have is: Can Andy’s tutelage make Henn a better pitcher than Ayala is now? I’m skeptical.
Gardy didn’t respect him because he got shot. While he was fishing. Not very smart. He’s still got fragments permanently in his arm.
Hey! I got shot too. While fishing.
(I’m smart. I can do things.)
rickey,
I don’t know if anybody answered you regarding Bonser not being on the 60-day DL.
No they don’t think that Bonser will be back this year.
The reason that he isn’t on the 60-day DL is because they only have 39 on the 40-man roster. I don’t know whether they are not allowed to move him because they are not at the limit, but if they move him to the 60-day DL, they instantly have to replace him on the 40-man roster.
Therefore, players are only moved to the 60-day DL when they have to be.
“”"”"Fredo says:
June 22nd, 2009 at 3:20 pm
Hey! I got shot too. While fishing.
(I’m smart. I can do things.)”"”"”
I got mooned once while fishing on Leech Lake, all I could do was ask the mooner where the stretch marks came from.
Silly question. Do all the individuals who post comments during normal business hours have jobs, work nights, or retired? Just curious.
Sweet One,
I’m a roster move geek so excuse me.
Teams may be at or below the 40 man as they please. Until they need his spot there is no downside to keeping Boof on the 40 man (not much of an upside either) If they need the spot they simply move him to the 60-day.
“”"”"Jonathan says:
June 22nd, 2009 at 4:44 pm
Silly question. Do all the individuals who post comments during normal business hours have jobs, work nights, or retired? Just curious.”"”"”
I am a jail excapee, hiding out from the law.
I commend all of you on your knowledge of the Twins. As a former Minnesotan, but still a Twins, it is great to see such passion for the Twins.
Keep it up. I learn a lot.
Hey what about put Perkins in the bullpen
and bring Swarzak back up
scottb…Go to Joe C’s blog, good discussion going on right now on that subject.
Maybe they should go looking for German Gonzalez. Maybe Gabino can be the next German Gonzalez?
Too sane,98,romer and the few that actually know something about baseball-Is Keppel the flamethrower we have been needing and Morrilo has a bad walk day ever third outing,is he the flamethrower we are looking for?
LEN3-You said on K-Fan that DY is finally paying attention to Vavra in regards to turning on the inside pitch for power .I hear he crushes the ball in BP.If he starts crushing the ball and we can come up with a 7th inning solution out of the pen,we can pass the Tigers in the end.
GENO,
“Too sane,98,romer and the few that actually know something about baseball-Is Keppel the flamethrower we have been needing and Morrilo has a bad walk day ever third outing,is he the flamethrower we are looking for?”
I don’t know that “we”, you, or the Twins are looking for a flamethrower.
I am not.
Give me a pitcher who has great movement, great command, great competitiveness and great baseball IQ and everyone else can have the mph.
we need Freddy Sanchez
Not sure I’m one of the few Geno was talking about, but I suscribe to the Yogi Berra School of Baseball:
“In baseball, you don’t know nothing” and, “You can observe a lot just by watching.”
