Thoughts on Gibson, other Twins-related notes
Posted on August 18th, 2009 – 11:42 AMBy La Velle
Hit the breakfast buffet this morning. Dropped two pieces of bread in the toaster, then went to acquire other items. I head for the toaster when it pops - but some guy pulls my toast out and gives it to his kid.
Didn’t know toast-poaching was allowed in these parts….
Haven’t heard who’s coming off the 40-man roster for Francisco Liriano. But let me clear up one thing I didn’t mention in today’s coverage: Today was Phil Humber’s day to start for Class AAA Rochester. The Twins needed a rested arm to join their pitching staff, which is gasping for breath. Armado Gabino pitched Sunday, so he wasn’t what they needed right now.
I had both guns loaded and ready to fire today if the Twins didn’t sign Kyle Gibson. I’m fully aware that the draft is a crapshoot, and if you believe a player is THE guy and can get him for less, fine. The Twins did that with Ben Revere in 2007. Revere is now one of their top prospects, and a tradeable commodity (hint, hint!) to get quality major league talent.
But that went out the window once they drafted Gibson. He’s a top five talent who slid to No. 22 because of injury concerns, concerns that the Twins checked out and are confident won’t develop into elbow problems.
They should have been prepared to pay Gibson a bonus over the league-suggested slot, which is $1.287 million. And by over, I’m not talking about $100,000.
Joe C. did a great job of keeping up with the developments. While things didn’t look good a few days ago, I wasn’t too concerned. Mainly because I know how deliberate the Twins can be during negotiations (dozens of conversations with exasperated agents through the years proves that) and that several first-rounders were unsigned.
But there were times yesterday when I thought they weren’t going to sign him. The Twins hadn’t moved much past $1.3 million, and Gibson’s adviser was pushing for $2.5 million.
Not only did the Twins sign Gibson for $1.85M - $563,000 over slot - they looked a lot better than several clubs that went over the league-suggested slot. Some examples:
Pick Name Team Bonus Recommended Difference
6 Zack Wheeler, RHP SF $3,300,000 $2,340,000 $960,000
11 Tyler Matzek, LHP COL $3,900,000 $1,791,000 $2,109,000
13 Grant Green, SS OAK $2,750,000 $1,656,000 $1,094,000
29 Slade Heathcott,OF NYY $2,200,000 $1,107,000 $1,093,000
58 Andrew Oliver, LHP DET $1,495,000 $624,600 $870,400
76 J.R. Murphy, C NYY $1,250,000 $477,900 $772,100
91 Wil Myers, C/3B KC $2,000,000 $380,700 $1,619,300
122 Chris Dwyer, LHP KC $1,450,000 $240,300 $1,209,700
123 Max Stassi, C OAK $1,500,000 $236,700 $1,263,300
(Note: This doesn’t count major league deals or two-sport athlete deals, which can be spread over four years. And I don’t know if there are any special circumstances with the ones I listed).
The system needs to be addressed, no doubt. Tim Lincecum signed for just over $2 million in 2006. Eight unproven pitchers are getting more than that this season, a couple of them are getting much, much more. But if the Twins stick to the principles and say, “we’re not going to pay what we feel is too much,” they and a few other teams will be part of the world’s greatest band playing on the Titanic.
There are plenty of rounds to strike gold in but what’s the point if you can’t sign a player who is projected to be a difference-maker? The Twins needed Gibson. One of the reasons they are in the situation they are in now is because of their 2003 and 2004 drafts and, to an extent, the 2005 draft too.
Now the Twins have Gibson, Matt Bashore, Bill Bullock and Ben Tootle - their first four pick this year - signed. Props to them for getting top talent in the organization this year. All four should move through the system at a pretty good pace. Scouts believe that of the Missouri pitchers in recent years - Max Scherzer (D-Backs), Aaron Crow (Royals draftee) and Gibson - Gibson might be the best of the three.
“I want to make a good impression and I want to show the Twins they made a good investment,” Gibson said.
Gibson’s slider is the real deal, he might end up with a plus changeup and has very good command. Don’t expect him to pitch for the Twins next season, that’s just not how this organization rolls with prospects. But a spot in the 2011 rotation isn’t out of the question.
On a sad note, just learned that former Twins prospect Brent Schoening has passed away after a bout with leukemia. Here’s the story. Class A Fort Myers manager Jeff Smith played with Schoening.
106 Responses to "Thoughts on Gibson, other Twins-related notes"
LEN3: Your breakfast adventure mirrors the Twins season. They are “TOAST”!
LEN III
Gibson signed for over slot not under
LEN III
Gibson signed for over s lot not under it.
The Twins should’ve used that money to sign someone they know can help them instead of gambling it on a kid who might never make it out of the minors.
LEN3, when was the last time the Twins signed there top 9 draftees? I think this was a great draft, easily one of the most comprehensive in years, and really I see no big reaches or potential busts.
BC..oh you mean Punto? Oh wait…
I am admittedly a little unsure of how this works… Do the Twins pay all the players in their minor league systems? Do the minor league affiliates have anything to do with paying the players or do they all get checks from the Minnesota Twins? What is the overall payroll for all the players in the organization?
Did you have to use the words:
“real deal”
Don’t bring back J.D. Durbin memories!
On the topic of young pitchers, the Twins have to change their philosophy
on pitch counts. These young pitchers are making it to the major leagues and then breaking down. Nolan Ryan has the pitchers in the Rangers system throwing more pitches and building up better arm strength and endurance. This should be something the Twins organization considers. These pitchers are being coddled at every level including the big club.
Good catch, Jama. Brain cramp. Plus I’m watching this Brett Farve stuff go down….
LEN3: Did that guy have any resemblance to Bill Smith? Just ask’n, because from what I understand, it’s not uncommon for him to be pinch’n the loaf during company time. On the other hand, however, he also is not known for break’n bread for the kids. But he appears to have made some exceptions the last 24-48 hours…
Props to the Vikes for not wasting an opportunity to go for a ring! No guarantee but they went for it..
This is something the Twins should have done last year. Twins caught lightning in a bottle when 5 young starters had pretty good years at the same time. The odds of all 5 young starters having back to back good years not likely… Last year a wasted opportunity ask Joe Mauer…
I just don’t understand how the Twins starters can be “tired”. They rarely pitch past 80-90 pitches a start because they’re so horrible.
I’m tired of watching the Twins starters so i’m going on the fan DL it’s called the Disinterested List.
Brent,
Twins aigned top 17 last season…this year first 10 and 15 of first 18.
they are probably tired from stress of always pitching out of a hole. they waste a lot of pitches on foul balls because they don’t have good enough stuff to miss bats. lots of long at bats and base runners cause for pitching while stressed instead of pitching free and easy imo.
really need some guys that don’t pitch to contact, try to miss bats and knock a guy down once in a while. not much over powering stuff on this staff or in aaa.
What’s the deal with KC giving Myers a $2 million bonus at the #91 slot?
Isn’t it football season?
Looks like that the “official” 40 men roster has 41 now with Humber (plus the 3 on the 60-day DL). My guess: Dickey or Macri are out.
ggg,
I don’t think that Liriano’s problem recently has been “pitching to contact”. He’s been missing bats, but missing the strike zone as well. Last night his velocity was down 3 mph or so… About AAA, there is a guy with over powering stuff, but he is a wild thing.
LaVelle thanks for the reminder on the toast poaching, I might have stabbed a kid with a plastic knife on Thursday morning if I was caught off guard, especially if Wednesday’s game is as brutal as last night’s was….
The odds of all 5 young starters having back to back good years not likely…
The odds of all 5 having absolute 180’s all in the same season isn’t exactly something I’d bet on either though.
You’d think that out of 5 starters having good seasons, that at least 2 would be able to…you know…improve on that.
Which is why it’s time Anderson goes.
BC…… Your 12:03 post is stupid.
Which is why it’s time Anderson goes.
T,
what has gotten into you? Remember 2 months ago when you were defending him when I was saying the same thing? 
LaVelle, Thanks again for providing a little opinion/ edge to your writing rather than the team press releases Joe C gives us
Methinks sports needs a pay czar. Filthy, filthy lucre.
“Mainly because I know how deliberate the Twins can be during negotiations (dozens of conversations with exasperated agents through the years proves that)…”
And likewise, when they need a FA — such as this year — to aright a season, everything seems to drag on and on.
As Fredo pointed out yesterday, this bureaucratic lifestyle is conservative and reliable, but also is stymying and defeating.
Ya have to break out of the shell once in a while.
“I’m tired of watching the Twins starters so i’m going on the fan DL it’s called the Disinterested List.”
Can’t blame ya, BC. But check in with us once in while.
It’s still a little fun besides the starting pitching.
I asked over in JoeC’s blog but it looks dead over there so I’ll try here: is Padilla too terrible or too big an ass to be an effective starter for us over the next month? He’d be close to free, and if he’s no better than Humber or doesn’t get along with others they can just send him away. His game log looks pretty eratic, so I’m wondering how much of that was clubhouse related and how much was talent.
TWINS THROWING IN THE TOWEL
Strib: “Gardenhire hinted that Joe Mauer, who has started either at catcher or DH, might not start in a game this week.”
MVP might as well sit out too. Such strategy hasn’t hurt Cleveland.
Can’t blame the Twins really. Not counting Blackburn, they’ve lost 3 starters.
So unless they get someone like Harang or Halliday………..
Thoughts and Prayers to the family of Brent Schoening.
…or Padilla?
Why not? If he’s really close to free. Has he cleared waivers?
“is Padilla too terrible or too big an ass to be an effective starter for us over the next month?”
IMO, yes. The way I see it the season is pretty much lost. I wouldn’t bring in someone who was dropped by a playoff team for being a bad teammate.
Cris E: You’re still caring; still trying. Stop it.
The Rangers released Padilla. The Twins could pick him up for the minimum.
I’d rather see what any of Gabino and Pino can do as a starter than Padilla. He is no better than Perkins at this point…
Imagine how well Mauer could be hitting if he had any protection in the lineup behind him!
Agree with everyone on going with the younger guys and seeing what they can do….
Smoltz over Padilla.
One thing that bugs me about the Twins is that they are so hesitant to call up younger players when there is a need. If what you have isn’t working, give them a shot. If they’re not ready, send them down again. Heck, I would think there’s an arm or two in the minors that can go more than 2-3 innings and give up less than 6-7 runs.
La Velle, 2 questions.
1. Who just steals someone’s toast?
2. Where do you think they’ll assign Gibson, or WILL they assign him somewhere this year?
The toast was not stolen. The guy simply thought he was entitled to it and that someone loaded up the toaster for him. I still would have called him out on it.
“Where do you think they’ll assign Gibson, or WILL they assign him somewhere this year?”
haven’t they already said that he will not pitch until the Instructional League? I think that only makes sense. My guess is next year he will start in Ft. Myers.
Gman says:
August 18th, 2009 at 1:11 pm
BC…… Your 12:03 post is stupid.
Let me guess you were the captain on your high school debate team right?
The point i was trying to make is spending money on unproven players is a gamble. If I was an MLB GM i would gamble on the fact that the kid might not pan out and use the money to sign and established player. Trust me this issue is only going to get bigger and bigger and if your one of the crappy teams who gets one of the top picks chances are you dont have a lot of extra cash to throw at them to begin with.
Thanks for your take though Gman it was very interesting.
Smoltz over easy…he’s fried!
“If I was an MLB GM i would gamble on the fact that the kid might not pan out and use the money to sign and established player”
The problem is that many established players that hit the FA market are either old and/or not that great or they are looking for that big payday that the Twins can’t afford. There are some good FAs to be had, but not enough that a team can build around them.
I agree Gibson might not pan out, but if he does he will have six years at the major league level where he is under team control before he hits free agency. That is a huge savings which makes him (and other prospects) worth the financial risk.
“The toast was not stolen. The guy simply thought he was entitled to it and that someone loaded up the toaster for him. I still would have called him out on it.”
~All these old comments about toast are getting stale; kind of like Punto plate appearances.
The point i was trying to make is spending money on unproven players is a gamble. If I was an MLB GM i would gamble on the fact that the kid might not pan out and use the money to sign and established player.
Of course it’s a gamble. But that’s how you acquire talent. The Twins gave Mauer over $5M when they drafted him…how’d that work out?
Not to mention…which ‘established player’ are you going to sign, and have in your system for several years, for $1.85M?
I agree with BC of ND. Spend the big money on proven players, not guesses.
USAChief:
Not many Mauers. You know the point being made. If you point out the huge successes (Mauer), you should also point out the huge flops. I would be interested in seeing the % of first round “Bonus Babies” who actually make an impact on the team drafting them.
Chief I agree $1.85 million isn’t much in the current landscape but if you add up all the money they’ve paid their top picks over the years vs the return they’ve gotten on those investments. Maybe i am stupid but i say the money spent on a player like Mike Redmond was well spent but the money they spent on say Chris Paramlee wasn’t.
I would be interested in seeing the % of first round “Bonus Babies” who actually make an impact on the team drafting them.
How about this: about half of the players who participated in the 2008 All star game were 1st round draft picks. About 40% were international free agents and about 10% were drafted in rounds 2+.
BC……. They have tried your way in the past ann with the exception of Joe Mauer it hasn’t got them a hell of alot of talent in the stockpile. I am of the opinion that if your a major league team you must change your line of thinking once in a while.
Thrylos:
Good intel. Thanks.
thrlos98 That maybe true but there’s 30 first round picks a year every year.
“Maybe i am stupid but i say the money spent on a player like Mike Redmond was well spent but the money they spent on say Chris Paramlee wasn’t.”
Maybe I would say, wait 2 more years and I’m thinking the million dollar bonus Parmelee got will look pretty good!
I hope your right Seth but weve been waiting what 3 years now?
BC
We all agree with your point that most first round picks don’t become superstars. In many cases the team would have gotten the same result by flushing the bonus money down the toilet.
Still there is no other way to build a solid team. There simply aren’t enough free agents who are good enough and cheap enough to fill out a roster. Also, who do you call on when there is an injury? You call up a guy from the minors who you drafted (and gave a signing bonus) a few years ago.
Not many Mauers
I agree. Even fewer if you don’t sign your top draft picks.
The money spent on draft picks who don’t work out is unfortunate, but part of the cost of doing business. The Twins, like most teams, depend heavily on their minor league system to supply them with good major league players so they don’t have to go out and regularly ‘buy’ players on the open market.
A strong commitment to spending what it takes to put good talent into the minor league system is a wise investment of relatively smaller amounts of money. Not every prospect will work out, but the alternative is worse.
Which would you rather see them do…spend $4M on Nick Punto, who is no better than 20 or so freely available infielders floating around AAA who would be thrilled to provide similar production for $400K…or $4M on a Miguel Sano, who might never see a day in the majors, but who at least has a chance to be a better than average major league player someday?
BC of ND,
Mauer, Morneau, Span, Cuddyer, Baker, Blackburn, Slowey, Hunter, Garza, and Kubel are all players that the Twins have drafted in the higher rounds. Their combined signing bonuses were less than what A-Rod is making this year.
If anything, they should be investing more money in the draft and international free agency. Gibson is getting less than Punto made this year, if he even turns out to be an average reliever he will be a much better value than any free agent contract.
Seth isn’t Parmelee like 21 years old or something? If he is not up and producing for the Twins by now he is obviously a complete bust isn’t he?
Another crucial factor: Top 10 picks, like ARoid, Upton, and Verlander, are much, much, much less of a gamble than the 20th picks, guys like Parmelee and Hicks. This is a statistically proven fact. A team picking at the beginning of each and every round for a dozen years should have an appreciable talent edge. The Rays demonstrated this recently. Of course, that advantage can be crapped away by a lousy staff.
International FA signings are probably the more important component now. More All-Stars seem to come from this pool year to year. This is another concern for many, since committing financial resources to international markets is less of a burden for some than for others.
Too Funny Charlie! Ha!! He’s having a very underappreciated season this year, no question!
and that Hicks guy is not doing anything for us this year either!
Good one. One step forward, one step back. How about: One step forward, flat on his face…….Tired arm fatigue. What the heck is that? Like you said: Tired brain fatigue……..
And 98: What the…. Get rid of him too. And Chief. And Seth.
That toast thing has me puzzled. What made them think that was their toast. Obviously THEY didn’t put the toast in…and they don’t honestly believe there is a magical toast making device that just poops it out as you walk by…right?
If I’m eating a breakfast buffet at a hotel, I don’t want the toast that somebody else put in the toaster. Who knows where their hand has been?
Pardon my ignorance but how long is the “norm” for a top pick to spend in the minors? At what point are they considered a “bust?”
saam and Chief i know that drafting is a necessary part of baseball and i’m not suggesting that Twins not sign any of there top picks but i dont blame them for playing hardball with them. it’s just smart business.
Seth and Charlie that’s funny i know he’s only 21 but and he could still pan out but then again i’m still waiting for Adam Johnson to pan out.
charlie most players don’t start to produce at the “major league level” until they are 23-25. span was still in aaa at 23. hunter, cuddy were all up and down even kirby was older when he made it. more likely for a guy to make it after 24-25 than before. that’s part of the reason why it’s still early to call dy and gomez a bust.
how long is the “norm” for a top pick to spend in the minors?
Depends on the organization and the players who are ahead of him in the organization
At what point are they considered a “bust?
The average baseball player enters his prime at about 27 years old. I would have a hard time calling anyone a bust before that. FYI, Span was considered a “bust” as late as February 2008.
I just caught the father of the toast girl on another site complaining about why LaVelle had such a sense of entitlement about that toast.
and as the norm sarcasm is totally lost on the post……….
“Pardon my ignorance but how long is the “norm” for a top pick to spend in the minors? At what point are they considered a “bust?””
This looks like an interesting research project!
Joe Mauer was drafted out of high school in 2001, and he made his MLB debut in April 2004. That’s definitely the exception.
Justin Morneau was drafted in the 3rd round in 1999 out of HS, and he made his debut in 2003 or 2004, and had made it by 2006.
Kevin Slowey was a 2nd round pick in 2005 out of college and made his debut in early 2007.
Jeff Manship, Danny Valencia, Anthony Slama and Rob Delaney all signed out of college in 2006. Manship is up, and the three others could be up yet this year.
Can we call Kyle Waldrop or Trevor Plouffe busts? Plouffe is 22 and in his second year at AAA. That’s incredible. Most 22 year olds are in Low A ball. Waldrop missed a year with injury and he’s doing well in AA.
Reality is everyone is different. Outside of Mauer, there is no perfect prospect, so you just take what they’re able to do.
Span was considered a bust by fans, not the team.
Toast is more fun to talk about than the 2009 Twins.
Except to say “The 2009 Twins are toast”.
bop, the team considered Span a bust, too. That’s why they traded for Young and Gomez.
I don’t truly consider it a bust unless it is a C cup or larger…….
LOL…I hear you Charlie and concur.
The Twins should gitty about Favre signing with the Vikes. This way, the Favre circus will take over this town for the next few months and the Twins can finish 15 games under .500 and nobody will notice.
Gotta love the Twins mentality. If a pitcher stinks, they just throw him on the DL, even though they’re not really hurt. Perkins basically got on his knees and asked to be DL’ed. His agent probably threw a c-note at the doctors to make up a diagnosis of “tendonitis”.
LOL!!!!
Why doesn’t this apply to position players?
depends how you define bust: Blyleven never made it to the Hall of Fame–bust. Carew never played in a World Series–bust. Morganna Roberts–bust
sorry charlie thought so but you never know around here!
1st round 1st full yr.
span 24
mauer 21
cuddy 25
torii 23
knoby 22
perkins 24
garza 23
2nd round,
slowey 24
baker 24
crain 23
kirby 24
Charlie - that was stupid.
I have a bust of Beethoven on my mantle, i’m not sure why they call it a bust because he has none and you can only see his head.
BC - stupider than Charlie.
Benny, lol it could hv h1n1
ggg no problem
A week before the trade deadline when many many people ehre were clamoring for the Twins to make that one big trade that was going to push them over the top I was here saying that the Twins were really not that good and not one or two players away. I like Cabrera but would just as soon see Plouffe at SS. I want to see Manship starting right now. I want to see Slama and Delaney here. i dont care if they both had a bad game last night. I want to see Valencia for the rest of the year at 3rd. I like Crede but if he can bring a prospect then we should trade him now. This year is lost. We are lucky if we make it back to 500 so look to next year. I hope Pavanno is willing to start telling some of the younger guys to grow a set. Baker needs to stop pouting when he gives up a hit and man up and be ready to throw his next pitch. Blackburn has pitched brutally slow for the past month. Every pitch seems to drag on forever. His fielders look bored and ready to throw in the towel. The Twins can have a good team NEXT year if they start planning for NEXT year and stop pretending that they are still in the race. It sound good to say that they are still hoping that they can pull it out this year but lets be realistic about it.
coyotetom
What is stupid is that people here question whether or not Parmalee at 21 is a bust or not!
Matt, could you repeat that in English?
are u not familiar with h1n1?
Nope I don’t believe I’ve met him.
WOW another term for that being the swine flu.
Matt…stop insulting us pigs.
Lineup: Span RF, Cabrera SS, Mauer C, Kubel DH, Cuddyer 1B, Crede 3B, Young LF, Gomez CF, Punto 2B
Swine flu?
I thought we were talking about toast.
Benny W….some people just turn things around to insult us pigs. I object to that.
No Morneau? Is hanging out with Favre waiting for the news conference? Maybe Justin is sick…. of losing that is!
i’d like to see gardy put casilla in and leave him there for the rest of the season so we’d know if they need a new 2b next year or not. we know what nicky is.
i’m sure tonight coomer will say nicky is swinging a hot bat and gardy is a great manager!
I just hope that Berrian’s leg is healed by Friday…
Oh, wait, are people still talking about the Twins?
The only hot bat LNP will swing is a bat he steals. I agree with ggg, let’s see what Casilla is going to do for the rest of the year.
According to Snepp, Stat diagnosed Morneausie with vertigo.
Most of you won’t ‘get’ that, but trust me on this, it’s funny. Darn funny.
“gardie” has been managing with vertigo all freakin’ year, why can’t he sit a few out?
“gardie” has been managing with vertigo all freakin’ year, why can’t he sit a few out?
Gardy sits one out pretty much every time Hunter Wendelstedt is behind the plate.
Matt Macri was designated to get Humber on the 40-man
Wow no idea that Macri was even still on the 40 man!
We have seen a ton of players from our farm system. Why do we want to see more?
I might have seen one good player…
